It occurred to me that this whole Russian Star Wars thing might be the US claiming Russia has a capability it currently does not have and will not have for some years, to then say “see we used our mighty globe-spanning power to stop the Ruskis from weaponizing space and attacking us, we stared them down hehe” when Russia does not launch a nuclear satellite which it anyway does not even currently have. A PR move in other words.
On a different note, Adveevka fell sooner and more suddenly than I expected. I wonder what the cause was? Russian glide bombs, lack of American weapons for the Ukrainians, or something else?

Posted by: Chessmaster Z | Feb 18 2024 14:42 utc | 3

OMFG, just fucking sickening.
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 18 2024 14:33 utc | 1

Every one of the killed had been given their fair chance to survive. All they had to do was to surrender, and by now they would have been safe and sound.

Posted by: Poslan1 | Feb 18 2024 15:06 utc | 5

Avdeevka’s fall was all of the above from @3. In the last few days the US announced that Ukraine uses too many artillery shells, US production can’t keep up and it causes too much wear on barrels. Ukraine has lost a huge number to troops since their southern offensive, these can’t be replaced as easily as some who just look at population numbers claim. They can be replaced with bodies but that doesn’t make those bodies effective soldiers.
The VSU has been worn down. Not to the point of outright collapse but significantly worn down. The shifting of reserves around the front, the attacks on rear deployments. Everything starts taking a toll that’s bigger than what it looks like on paper.
There are also Russian reports that the communication/decision process between infantry, artillery and air forces has been improved. I’m of the opinion that the UMKs make the biggest difference. The impact of even an artillery salvo vs 250+ kg bomb is significant. And if Russian infantry is A. assaulting positions prepared by aerial bombs and B. able to call in accurate air strikes, the ability of VSU forces to withstand attacks goes way down.
Unless Ukrainian forces can regather and a lot more effective air defenses get moved to the front, this momentum is likely to build. Russia can apply pressure everywhere almost all of the time. It can consolidate west of Avdeevka now and start putting the most pressure in the south, or around Chasov Yar or somewhere else to force Kiev to staunch the bleeding. But that weakens some other sector.

Posted by: Lex | Feb 18 2024 15:20 utc | 7

Ukraine Weekly Update, 16th February: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-d90

Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Feb 18 2024 15:36 utc | 9

Does anyone see the flaw in this logic?
“An agreement has been reached during the Munich Security Conference to build an ammunition production plant in Ukraine by the German company Rheinmetall.”
https://nitter.unixfox.eu/301military/status/1758906735383793825#m
And.
The stealing begins, with around $300 billion in Russian assets frozen in the West, but why not send it straight to Ukraine, why expose Estonian as a US client state.
“Justice Department Transfers Approximately $500,000 in Forfeited Russian Funds to Estonia for Benefit of Ukraine”
https://nitter.unixfox.eu/TheJusticeDept/status/1758831052150243778#m

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 18 2024 15:40 utc | 11

reply to 3
I think the critical factor was Ukr. troops running away after so much depletion and suffering. I think Syrski is covering his ass with Make Believe that he ordered an evacuation.
Possible huge news: first, a video about violent mob action against a woman and child thought to be helping conscription kidnappers – in an area thought to loyal to Kiev.
Second, a claim about “partisans” blowing up an ammo train? Wow!
Has the avalanche/collapse started?

Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 18 2024 15:50 utc | 13

Posted by: BroncoBilly | Feb 18 2024 15:52 utc | 14
Cross-FLOT (Forward Line of Own Troops) operations, using rotary assets, has always been a tactical card in a Russian divisional commanders hand. Loss predictions for its use in a Cold War scenario, based on historical extrapolations, were eye watering and required either surprise or effective SEAD/ECM (Suppression of Enemy Air Defence). If the Russians went for this tactic they must have realised that Ukraine’s AD was operationally ineffective.

Posted by: Milites | Feb 18 2024 16:08 utc | 15

On a different note, Adveevka fell sooner and more suddenly than I expected. I wonder what the cause was? Russian glide bombs, lack of American weapons for the Ukrainians, or something else?
Posted by: Chessmaster Z | Feb 18 2024 14:42 utc | 3

All of the above and more. I think Russian hard work and patience has paid off and we’ve finally reached the tipping point. Slowly at first … then all at once.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Feb 18 2024 16:16 utc | 17

@ Posted by: Milites | Feb 18 2024 16:08 utc | 15
No real surprise there. The US has been using it since Vietnam.
It is a major part of their force projection operations.
I’m curious if there are already Russian deeper strike teams in Ukraine, up to 50 km from the front. They could be prepping for a sabotage network to be used at the appropriate time.

Posted by: BroncoBilly | Feb 18 2024 16:22 utc | 19

Musk on taking Avdeyevka: “The longer the conflict drags on, the better for Russia”
The longer the Ukraine conflict lasts, the more advantages Russia will reap from it. This was pointed out by American businessman Elon Musk. On the social network X he commented on a post by billionaire David Sachs about the capture of Avdeyevka by Russian troops. Sachs noted that Kiev was defeated again and Russian forces were advancing. Musk wrote:
“The longer this goes on, the better it will be for Russia. So this is not a ‘standoff’. This oft-used word will soon fade from memory and a new narrative will emerge.”

Posted by: Ossi | Feb 18 2024 16:25 utc | 21

by BroncoBilly | Feb 18 2024 15:52 utc | 14
That is a combat doctrine for the flatlands, from the Cold War books. Also valid across the wide waters.
Odessa Oblast is doable the same way. Overwhelm it with missiles, KABs, FABs and SU-25 and do a heli storm troops assault, with the air delivered light armor. Ships might arrive later with reinforcements. Before that of course NATO’s ISR has to go off. The first things first to solve the tactical puzzle.

Posted by: whirlX | Feb 18 2024 16:38 utc | 23

“I think we will see this tactic used more and more as Russian air superiority takes effect.”
Posted by: BroncoBilly | Feb 18 2024 15:52 utc | 14
Well I kind of enjoyed all of the action and philosophical (ideological) theme in Starship Troopers. I can’t believe I forgot in the author, but I do remember I didn’t like his ideology.
To get to the point, notice how Hamas is quite creative in their use of gliders.
Although I hate posting ideas publicly, were Russia to employ paratroopers using hang gliders they would be equivalent to these Fab bomb glider kits. You could release them at a distance. They could operate a weapon coming in too.
I think where helicopters are concerned you might be even willing to take some losses depending on the value of the prize. And if they did that here in adviika I think that was a good move and worth it.

Posted by: David G Horsman | Feb 18 2024 16:43 utc | 25

Everything suggests that the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not leave Avdeevka, but ran away.
A sufficient amount of ammunition and ammunition was thrown. They didn’t have time to clear anything and even the documents of military units, etc., were thrown away.
The Russians are already publishing their findings.
For example, boxes with cartridges, grenades, or the remaining intact Swedish Carl-Gustaf grenade launchers and ammunition for them.
No one prepared a planned departure, but were forced to leave due to the failures of the command.

https://t.me/legitimniy/17278

Our source reports that Commander-in-Chief Syrsky gave the order last night to withdraw from Avdeevka for only one reason.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces units began to leave on their own. But, first of all, the third assault itself decided to leave the positions of the “coking plant”, since being there was fatal, as if in a trap.
For the General Staff and Bankova it was a shock that no one remained to fight to the last, as was the case at Azovstal. The soldiers chose life over death for the sake of the political interests of Zelensky and his entourage.
This was a forced measure by Syrsky to show that there was no rebellion or split in the army, that everything was “planned.” That is why some units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces remained blocked at the coke plant and did not have time to leave, like many in Avdiivka. Nobody warned them about leaving. They learned about this fact from the Internet.
Avdiivka is significant in that it showed what we warned about. The morale of the army fell very low, and the illusion created by the propaganda of the OP that everything was fine led to such consequences.
If no conclusions are drawn. There will be more and more Avdeevkas.

https://t.me/legitimniy/17281

Posted by: Down South | Feb 18 2024 16:48 utc | 27

Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President instructed the SBU to deal harshly with the commanders from Avdiivka, who agreed with the enemy so that the military and wounded would surrender safely.
Bankova considers this a bad signal, which has a bad effect on the morale of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and may become a general trend in the future, when commanders, instead of fighting to the death, will negotiate for captivity.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/21723

Horizontal connections
A very bad call for Bankvoy. If local commanders themselves began to negotiate with the Russians about leaving prisoners, it means that in the future they may begin to agree on more important processes.
It is clear that they did this for humanitarian reasons, and the families of the wounded are immensely grateful
these commanders, but knowing Ermak, it is not difficult to predict what fate awaits these commanders.
Here the generals were removed simply for their friendship with Zaluzhny, and you are negotiating with the Russian Armed Forces🧩

https://t.me/ZeRada1/18225

Posted by: Down South | Feb 18 2024 16:56 utc | 29

It’s interesting to watch Mercouris inching his way to the inevitable conclusion that the Ukrainian general staff is hugely at fault. Which means also the NATO general staff from which they take direction. That the Ukrainians have not yet turned their guns around surprises me.
If the general staff is NOT at fault, then this is intentional and deliberate self-destruction. (Personally, yeah, likely – consider how the US seems to have a deliberate policy of creating failed states; is a failed state not the result of every last US/NATO intervention since the CIA was formed?)
The Ukrainian political elite will move to plush estates in the West while the sore on the face of the earth that is now Ukraine festers and spreads poison.

Posted by: oracle | Feb 18 2024 16:59 utc | 31

Zelensky made serious errors in Ukraine’s fight with Russia . First Zelensky thought the US cared about Ukraine . Presently the US cares only if Ukraine is weakening Russia . That is not happening and Russia has grown stronger militarily, economically, and politically . The war has not achieved the goals Washington had in mind .
Going to war with Russia depending on other democracies ( whose leadership is subject to change as expensive mount) to fund and supply the war plus pay for Ukraine’s social obligations is not a winning strategy. This has been apparent from the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine territories . I suppose when one elects a comic to defeat Russia , the stage will soon be set for an operatic tragedy.
This is a historical example of a failed democracy . Ze , elected by the people to resolve the conflict in Donbas , fails to do so . A man with no military or political experience at the supra – national level engages in a war with the superpower next door without the indigenous resources to do so , gets badly mauled and blames his allies for ammunition shortages .

Posted by: Cheryl | Feb 18 2024 17:03 utc | 33

Zelensky made serious errors in Ukraine’s fight with Russia .
Posted by: Cheryl | Feb 18 2024 17:03 utc | 36
No. Zelensky’s one and only mistake was to allow himself to be induced to run for president. After that, he has made no decisions, all has been decided for him by Kolomoisky, by the Nazis, by MI6/CIA/State department. Now the decisions are being made on the ground by the troops. Zelensky never had any power, the blame for them is elsewhere. His sin is putting his face on all this.

Posted by: Honzo | Feb 18 2024 17:14 utc | 35

@Posted by: marcjf | Feb 18 2024 17:08 utc | 37
Mediazona tracks Russian deaths in detail, and even if one takes their comment that they are probably undercounting by 50% the Russian deaths in the whole war are less than 100,000. They have also noted a significant decrease in the Russian death rate over the past months.
That is because the Russian advantages in equipment and munitions are now so great, due to both increases on the Russian side and decreases on the Ukrainian side. We are seeing Ukrainian men picked up off the street and dying at the front within weeks, showing the utter cannon-fodder nature of many of the Ukrainian front line troops.
Such cannon-fodder can hold deeply entrenched positions such as Avdiivka (entrenched to greater and greater levels over a decade, although the increasing use of FABS seems to be offsetting this somewhat), and other front line towns but once those are broken the weaknesses of the Ukrainian side are laid bare. A Rasputitsa of further massive attrition against the Ukrainians then quite possibly a Spring of breakthroughs. The fronts around Ivanivske/Chasiv Yar, Novomykhailivka and Terny all seem to be giving way as well.

Posted by: Roger | Feb 18 2024 17:28 utc | 37

Words to think about:
Russians who hate Russians
Syrski is an ethnic Russian, so Russian that it could hardly be more Russian. He was born in a village in the Vladimir district of central Russia. As far as can be traced, his ancestors also come from this region in which the “Muscovite” statehood – if one could separate it from the all-Russian one – had its origins. The village of Petushki, where journalists found the house of Syrski’s grandmother, is on the border with the Moscow region; from here you can reach the Russian capital in around two hours by electric train.
Ten years ago, the first blood at Euromaidan sealed Ukraine’s fate
Opinion
Ten years ago, the first blood at Euromaidan sealed Ukraine’s fate
Syrski came to Ukraine in 1986 at the age of 21. After completing his officer studies at an elite Moscow university, he was assigned to a unit of the Soviet Army stationed in the Poltava region. Here he witnessed the collapse of the Soviet Union five years later, and it was probably more convenient to take the oath for an independent Ukraine than to start from scratch elsewhere.
The extraordinary mobility of all sections of the population in the 250 years that Ukraine was part of Tsarist Russia, and especially in the almost 70 years of the Soviet Union, ensured millions of such fates on both sides of the border, which had never occurred until 1991. At least one in three of those who call themselves Ukrainians today are actually ethnic Russians whose grandparents or parents migrated to the territory of the USSR. Hundreds of thousands of “Ukrainians” are Russians who – like Syrski – even moved to these areas themselves.
Millions of those who consider themselves “pure-blooded” Russians in Russia have a reversed fate and to this day have brothers or aunts who live in Ukraine and call themselves Ukrainians. I don’t even want to start with the topic of children from mixed marriages – also millions upon millions – so as not to let the confusion become endless.
And the two thirds of Ukrainians who can point to a seemingly “purebred” family tree without the slightest drop of “Muscovite blood”… To this day I don’t see any difference between Ukrainians and Russians.
As fate would have it, I had to change schools often during my childhood. I went through two German schools in Leipzig and three Russian ones: two in a Russian provincial town in the middle of the Volga steppes, the third was the school of the Soviet troops stationed in Leipzig. In each of my Russian classes I had Ukrainian classmates, up to ten of them. Back then, no one paid attention to ancestry and ethnicity, there were no differences, no divides, and nothing to indicate that one day we would no longer be part of an inseparable whole.
Ukrainian woman writes to EU chief diplomat Borrell: “You are a hypocrite, Josep”
Ukrainian woman writes to EU chief diplomat Borrell: “You are a hypocrite, Josep”
Everything has changed since Russia intervened in Ukraine in February 2022. Sometime between 2004 and 2014, the majority of Ukrainians, like Aitmatov’s Mankurts, forgot their close kinship with the Russian people and began to hate. “If you don’t jump, you’re a Muscovite,” “Moscow to the knife” and similar sayings became mass slogans at Euromaidan long before Crimea returned to Russia or Donbass rebelled. The hatred rose to the level of treason, because there is no other way I can describe the willingness to offer space for bases and missiles to enemies who openly seek the destruction of Russia.
So what happened? How could an educated people, which largely even consist of ethnic Russians, become a collection of Russophobes who have raised the ghosts of a brown past to their shield?
I don’t have a definitive answer, just two hypotheses.
First hypothesis: use of a psycho-informational weapon
When I started looking into the Ukrainian issue in the summer of 2013, I experienced something disturbing. Until then, for many years I had kept myself informed about current events mainly from the Tagesschau and the radio station mdr info and read the Spiegel and the Economist weekly, the latter of which I had subscribed to for many years. So there was nothing about “Russian propaganda” that had any influence on me and could explain the subsequent phenomenon. For me, Ukraine’s desire to join the EU came out of the blue. The topic, which has stuck with me ever since, was completely new to me at the time.
So I got on the computer and started watching several hours of Ukrainian television every day. News, talk shows, documentaries and Zelensky’s satirical show. At that time there were still many programs in Russian, and I began to understand Ukrainian without any problems after about two weeks.
What I remember from those weeks is – apart from the propaganda spread there about the EU, which had nothing in common with the reality of life in Europe (example: Klitschko: “In Europe, every young person has a legal right to a job”, example: Jatzenjuk: “Euro-association means that every pensioner will immediately receive at least 1000 euros in pension”) – my body’s reaction. After a short time watching the Ukrainian TV program, I had to vomit, felt nauseated, and the world around me took on a different, dark color, in the middle of the sunny summer and warm autumn. Nevertheless, I was magically drawn to the screen.
Sawik Schuster, one of the most popular talk show hosts on Ukrainian TV in 2013/2014. Pay attention to the color design of the studio.
Maxim Burlak/Russian Look / http://www.globallookpress.com
After a few weeks I started to analyze what was happening to me. I tried to become aware of what was different about the Ukrainian programs than, for example, those on German television. Without claiming to be exhaustive: what was striking was a different color selection with surreal color combinations. Dark, gloomy tones predominated, but there was always something inappropriately bright, such as red.
Screenshot of a talk show with Sawik Schuster on September 27, 2013
youtube / Inter
Ukraine: TV presenter quotes Eichmann and calls for killing Russian children
Ukraine: TV presenter quotes Eichmann and calls for killing Russian children
Lighting technology was used extensively to emphasize a speaker who, in talk shows, usually stood alone in the middle of the studio before speaking. In general, lighting and editing were used very aggressively, while certain messages were emphasized by the camera lingering on the speaker for a long time and the aforementioned use of the projector beam, as in the theater. And that’s just what I noticed as a non-professional.
I cannot judge whether all of this points to the use of a new type of psycho-informational weapon. I was able to organize “antidote” for myself in a variety of ways and later I no longer consumed Ukrainian television so intensively. Ukrainians, on the other hand, have been living under an informational bell for almost ten years after all Russian channels were switched off on their cable networks, through which nothing can penetrate. Have our Ukrainian brothers and sisters perhaps become victims of a mass hypnosis that affects them every day?
Second hypothesis: “Just fascism”
“Just Fascism” is the title of a documentary about Hitler’s fascism by Michail Romm that is well known in the Eastern Bloc. Unfortunately, the film is limited to superficial observations and, for me personally, never answered the question of how the civilized and educated German people, the people of poets and thinkers, could have allowed themselves to be so seduced.
Former Swiss Federal Councilor Ueli Maurer: “Of course Corona was a hysteria!”
Former Swiss Federal Councilor Ueli Maurer: “Of course Corona was a hysteria!”
But over the last ten years I have experienced vivid history lessons in the “best Germany of all time”. I think I now know how this could have happened.
It is self-aggrandizement, the absolutization of one’s own way of life and one’s own achievements that makes millions believe that they are chosen and better than other peoples. At the same time, this self-aggrandizement, which sooner or later contradicts the reality of life, creates fear and hatred against everyone – peoples and individuals – who question the exaggerated values and achievements.
This is how the Germans were “seduced” in 1933. And that is what has come to the fore again in the last ten years – particularly clearly during the so-called “corona crisis”.
Could something similar have happened to Ukrainians? After several decades of constant progress since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine is on the decline. The majority’s quality of life fell abruptly after 1991 and, unlike in Russia, has never fully recovered since then. Economic performance also never reached previous levels during the years of independence. Most Ukrainians can literally see the feeling of dissatisfaction with their own lives.
It is not difficult to identify the objective culprit for the miserable state of affairs – it is the caste of oligarchs and corrupt officials who privatized the country in the 1990s and have since amassed vast wealth, which they use in Europe and
.
https://rtde.live/international/196308-was-ist-nur-mit-ukrainern-los/

Posted by: Ossi | Feb 18 2024 17:33 utc | 39

Posted by: BroncoBilly | Feb 18 2024 16:22 utc | 19
Some slight differences, NATO heliborne forces trained for rapid response to a Warpact armoured breakthrough, assisted by their desant operations. MANPADS put an end to Vietnam/Afghanistan operations, even Grenada showed WW2 vintage AD causing serious problems for airborne operations and Chechnya was a harbinger for what loses Stinger-clones could inflict.
If Russia is still sticking to the playbook, they will have deep recon assets operating 50-100 Km behind enemy lines, the people you never see and often played by SF guys on exercises. A lot of info though can be gained by covert drones and hacking CCTV systems, especially at loading yards and rail stations. In fact the growing paranoia of the SBU is because an increasingly resentful population can be the best deep recon assets c.f occupied N.W. Europe etc and the Dutch and disgruntled Germans did not have access to the internet then!
Posted by: David G Horsman | Feb 18 2024 16:50 utc | 28
The real change in performance is as a result of the Russian military being in the end-cycle of assimilation and distribution of combat experienced personnel, using adapted SOP’s, whereas the Ukrainian’s are in the end-cycle of a decline and deterioration of their accumulated combat knowledge. The former only increases in strength, as force survival rates and thus combat knowledge accumulation steadily increase, the latter is the reverse, both cycles interact and influence each other, further accelerating the speed of the respective incline/decline cycles. The terminal glide path of Ukrainian combat effectiveness steepens daily, Western ISR/logistical/training support and sporadic deployments of high-end systems could only buy time, not reverse this age old phenomenon; however, this is how the intellectually mediocre and competency-challenged gamblers, who currently run the West, operate. Anything to extend their reign, days literally bought with the blood and tears of those they supposedly serve.

Posted by: Milites | Feb 18 2024 17:48 utc | 41

Posted by: Roger | Feb 18 2024 17:44 utc | 40
One motive behind the will to send Ukrainians back home is – fundamentally Ukraine is a game of hot potatoes or bag holders.
Russia wants nothing to do with most of the population now in EU. Russia can vet some amount of people if they want to Russia, but most just want EU and free money and stuff. Russia will not give free money and stuff.
So, since Ukraine is a hopeless project, they try to dump the population back to Ukraine and hope it causes havoc to Russia through funding and social costs. It’s doubtful that will happen.
Essentially, the cheapest way out is mobilizing and killing off as much as possible, because eventually EU will get stuck with this population. On the other hand, Poland has imposed now a complete blockade on Ukraine not only on roads, but now railways are blocked too. Essentially, the entire export economy (whatever was left of it) has ground to a complete halt.
No one knows what the final settlement will look like. There’s a high chance the Kiev regime would like Poland to absorb western Ukraine to gain access to EU funding. Think of it as the Troijan horse. But this is not what the US or Brits want, they want to keep a separate Ukraine entity (even in MSM headlines) so they can use it to diss Russia.
The main question is who gets left holding the bag, and majority of costs.
Most likely after the AFU is beaten in Donbass, there will be little left in the way of preventing losing the right bank of the Dnieper river. When the target environment is less rich in eastern Ukraine, the mainstay of Russian missiles and recon assets can start to seriously focus on hammering targets in western Ukraine, that also means any sort of investments the west may attempt to make there, especially weapon factories.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 18 2024 18:00 utc | 43

⚡Russian paratroopers advanced by 2 km in less than two days in the Zaporozhye direction (Rabotyno area).
From what I saw on the battlefield:
– the enemy does not have time to prepare the lines of defense
– weather conditions affect the delivery of basic stuff
– the work of enemy artillery is practically not felt, there is also a “hunger” in cluster munitions
– the opponent’s FPV operation is very weak, it is practically non-existent.
In addition, the mudflow prevents the AFU from transferring reserves, which makes it possible to take square after square without much difficulties.

https://t.me/geromanat/20390

Posted by: Down South | Feb 18 2024 18:14 utc | 45

Posted by: Honzo | Feb 18 2024 16:45 utc | 26

4: How do we define the beginning of an avalanche?

At the start of a process of collapse, small disturbances[1] take longer to be corrected.
So look for lengthier reaction times by ukrops. If at this point ukrops react to every Russian military victory with attacks on civilians or Western headline grabbing operations, then when their collapse is imminent, they will take longer to attack civilians or create PR distraction moves. Other examples might be more appropriate but in general plotting reaction times versus time or another time-related variable and seeing a qualitative increase will indicate imminent regime shift.
[1] Small disturbances are not necessarily small, just no large enoug to cause a collapse.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Feb 18 2024 18:16 utc | 47

Russia wants nothing to do with most of the population now in EU. Russia can vet some amount of people if they want to Russia, but most just want EU and free money and stuff. Russia will not give free money and stuff.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 18 2024 18:00 utc | 43

I’m not sure this is true. Russia has a growing economy, low unemployment and needs workers for a growing economy. The Ukrainians in the EU are perfect for the Russian economy – young men and women (more women), lots of children, mostly native speakers of Russian, well educated, culturally compatible (Orthodox religion). And Russians like Ukrainians – they’ll fit in well.
The Ukrainian women in the EU and UK will realize that they’re treated little better than prostitutes and cleaning ladies and that they and their children will have a better life in Russia.

Posted by: Contrarian_Ed | Feb 18 2024 18:29 utc | 49

It is reported that Russian troops entered Rabotino (Zaporozhye region).
At the moment there is a strong battle going on.
ZandVchannel

Posted by: Apollyon | Feb 18 2024 18:35 utc | 51

The British marine drones are a pest. What to do?
Perhaps the easiest way to solve the problem is give a few of these “Sea-Doo” marine drones to the Houthis.
If the Houthis use these marine drones against US Navy warships, sooner or later the US will come up with effective countermeasures. And when the US has working countermeasures against these marine drones, you just copy them.

Posted by: Passerby | Feb 18 2024 18:41 utc | 53

The British marine drones are a pest. What to do?
Aren’t they extremely noisy? ( under water )

Posted by: MAKK | Feb 18 2024 18:55 utc | 55

Honzo @ 35

No. Zelensky’s one and only mistake was to allow himself to be induced to run for president. After that, he has made no decisions, all has been decided for him by Kolomoisky, by the Nazis, by MI6/CIA/State department. Now the decisions are being made on the ground by the troops. Zelensky never had any power, the blame for them is elsewhere. His sin is putting his face on all this.

You’re one of the few, here, there, everywhere, that get it. Zelensky is the media face of Project Ukraine, that is it. He’s the stooge that the outlaw gang said, “sure you can join up”, now drunk and laughing they’re shooting at his feet telling him to dance – and keep dancing. And dance he does, bet he damn regrets walking into the saloon to check out the badass outlaws.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 18 2024 18:58 utc | 57

A WAR OF LIES
The war in Ukraine is based on lies — lies about how it started, how it’s going, and how it will end.
We are told that Ukraine is winning when in fact it is losing.
We are told that the war makes NATO stronger when in fact it is depleting it.
We are told that Ukraine’s biggest problem is a lack of funds from the U.S. Congress when in fact the West can’t produce enough ammunition — a problem that will take years to fix.
We are told that Russia is suffering greater casualties when in fact Ukraine is running out of soldiers — another problem money can’t fix.
We are told that the world is with us when in fact the Global Majority believes U.S. policy is the height of folly.
We are told that there is no opportunity to make peace when in fact we have rejected multiple opportunities for a negotiated settlement.
We are told that if Ukraine keeps fighting, it will improve its negotiating position when in fact the terms will only get much worse than what was already available and rejected.
Nevertheless the lies will succeed in dragging out the war.
Congress will appropriate more funds.
Russia will take more territory.
Ukraine will mobilize more young men and women to feed into the meat grinder.
Discontent will mount.
Eventually there will be a crisis in Kiev and the Zelensky government will be toppled.
And then, when the war is finally lost, when the whole country lays in smoldering ruins on a funeral pyre of their own making, the liars will say “well we tried.” Having prevented any alternative, having smeared anyone who told the truth as puppets for the enemy, the liars will say “We did our best. We stood up to Putin.”
In fact, they will claim, we would have succeeded but for the fifth column of Putin apologists who stabbed the Ukrainians in the back. Then, having shifted blame and patted themselves on the back, they will blithely move on to the next war, as they moved onto Ukraine after their disasters in Afghanistan and Iraq.
The lies are comprehensive — but they will work.
4:09 PM · Feb 17, 2024
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1.4M
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Posted by: daffyDuct | Feb 18 2024 17:28 utc | 38
Sad but true.

Posted by: Croat | Feb 18 2024 19:14 utc | 59

Lying is a profession. For instance:
“Russia is reduced to emptying its prisons to replace its colossal losses that it is suffering on the front”
I will first let you guess who said that.
The answer is here:
https://twitter.com/bechetgolovko/status/1758768251150950421

Posted by: Naive | Feb 18 2024 19:24 utc | 61

@ Ossi, §39:
One of the main culprits for the indoctrination of hate of Russians (“Muscovites”) into the minds of a generation of Ukrainians is the evil (no other word for it), mendacious, venal “Media Action” of the UK´s BBC.
They were given total control of media and education – and we´ve seen the power of that in the UK.
So the BBC whipped up a generation of hatred over a decade, explaining the fascist mentality of new army recruits (18-30) because they would have been brainwashed by the BBC propaganda from 8 to 20.
Doubtless the Neo-Nazi myths about “Varangian Kiev” provided a useful coat-hanger . . .

Posted by: John Marks | Feb 18 2024 19:29 utc | 63

Let’s have a minute of silence for one of the commenters here who predicted that nothing was going to change until Easter. That was two days before the conquest of Avdeevka, and he sounded confident in a coolly-understated way.

Posted by: Jan Sobieski | Feb 18 2024 19:39 utc | 65

Let’s have a minute of silence for one of the commenters here who predicted that nothing was going to change until Easter. That was two days before the conquest of Avdeevka, and he sounded confident in a coolly-understated way.
Posted by: Jan Sobieski | Feb 18 2024 19:39 utc | 65
I get it. In death, a troll has a name. His name was Julian.
His name was Julian.
His name was Julian.
His name was Julian.

Posted by: UWDude | Feb 18 2024 19:45 utc | 67

Our source reports that Bankovaya, with its latest idiocy in the situational pursuit of political goals, has endangered the entire line of defense.
The fall of Avdeevka triggered the retreat of many units; if the Russians continue the pressure, then the monolithic structure will break and the domino principle will be launched, when one after another the combat units will leave their positions without following the orders of Ze-stavka to stand to the death.
This is the result of politicians getting into the army’s case.

https://t.me/legitimniy/17285

Posted by: Down South | Feb 18 2024 19:48 utc | 69

Posted by: Jan Sobieski | Feb 18 2024 19:39 utc | 65
Rest in Pompousness, Julian.

Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Feb 18 2024 20:05 utc | 71

@ Cynic, §68:
Yes, a read of “The Battle of Blenheim” by Robert Southey (1774-1843) brings that home.

Posted by: John Marks | Feb 18 2024 20:15 utc | 73

Surround Xarkov next.
It´s a Russian city anyway.
Then, with another feint from Gomel towards Kiev, take Nikolayev and Odessa.
Posted by: John Marks | Feb 18 2024 19:51 utc | 70
Unlikely. Russia will push forward from Avdeevka until they can’t. If they can’t, it will be because Ukraine has shifted a lot of troops and equipment to stop them. At this time Russia will attack the lightly defended sections of the Ukrainian line, forcing more such redeployments, while at the same time fixing the Ukrainian formations in front of the Avdeevka spearhead, and turning the axes of attack to left and right to roll up the existing Ukrainian lines and force them out of their fortifications. This will open advances all along the line. THEN Kharkov can be surrounded.

Posted by: Honzo | Feb 18 2024 20:28 utc | 75

It is self-aggrandizement, the absolutization of one’s own way of life and one’s own achievements that makes millions believe that they are chosen and better than other peoples. At the same time, this self-aggrandizement, which sooner or later contradicts the reality of life, creates fear and hatred against everyone – peoples and individuals – who question the exaggerated values and achievements.

This describes current US mentality to a T. It is no surprise that such a malign model also operates in its 51st state.

This is how the Germans were “seduced” in 1933. And that is what has come to the fore again in the last ten years – particularly clearly during the so-called “corona crisis”.
Could something similar have happened to Ukrainians? After several decades of constant progress since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine is on the decline. The majority’s quality of life fell abruptly after 1991 and, unlike in Russia, has never fully recovered since then. Economic performance also never reached previous levels during the years of independence. Most Ukrainians can literally see the feeling of dissatisfaction with their own lives.
It is not difficult to identify the objective culprit for the miserable state of affairs – it is the caste of oligarchs and corrupt officials who privatized the country in the 1990s and have since amassed vast wealth, which they use in Europe and
.
https://rtde.live/international/196308-was-ist-nur-mit-ukrainern-los/
Posted by: Ossi | Feb 18 2024 17:33 utc | 39

It’s both hypotheses working together. Fascism 1930’s style had a number of components working in sync – the collaboration of government and large corporations to the point they were joined at the hip, the invocation of a great, glorious and mostly mythical past civilization in one’s land, the scapegoating of a minority that is blamed for all the nation’s troubles, and the use of fascist emblems, banners, mass parades, symbols, etc that united and controlled the public, to the point where much of the population subsumed their identity into the state completely.
The Galician neo-Nazis are the last remnant of that old school fascism. The new fascism doesn’t need such overt displays. Mass media is far more sohisticated in its technology and psycho manipulation. It doesn’t need the older crude displays, and it’s more effective.

Posted by: Mike R | Feb 18 2024 20:46 utc | 77

re rasputitsa
Ten day forecast has eastern Ukraine relatively warm and dry. If the Russians will move now is the time. Anyone have a 30 day forecast at hand? I am simply using the GFS forecast @ climatereanalyzer.org

Posted by: oldhippie | Feb 18 2024 21:01 utc | 79

However, Adevka and Navalny’s giving up should not be interpreted as an admission of weakness. The Anglo-Saxons and their Jews will certainly do something very special against Russia in the next few days –

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Feb 18 2024 21:16 utc | 81

I think I have outlined the strategy the Ukes should have adopted in preference to the ‘counter offensive.’ Try to make moving up to the Dnieper as slow and costly as possible while taking the minimum losses in men and materiel, then force the Russians to make a choice between a very dicey war of maneuver in the open or intense urban warfare. If the Ukes still had 90% of the combat power they had in mid 23, they’d actually have a negotiating position. Not a good one, but now they don’t have any.
I honestly thought they would adopt this strategy early in 23, and that all the talk about counter offensives was just strategic deception. Oh, well.
Posted by: Honzo | Feb 18 2024 16:45 utc | 26
Exactly this. The DC/UK strategy from the start has been terrible because it’s built on fantasy, political expediency and too short an attention span. The way to have defeated Putin was a long war with societal costs higher than outcomes. To DC’s credit, the original plan of Russia taking Kiev and then a mass insurgency starting was reasonable.
Except Putin didn’t take the bait. DC was wrong because it is only capable of predicting what it would do in any given situation. So in this case a media victory by toppling Zelensky and doing it as fast as possible be what it would do. Since that didn’t happen DC’s been in a reactive loop.
They’ve also misunderstood events on the ground like Kharkov. And when combined with their burning desire to take a way Crimea, just had to show the world a defeated and prostrate Russia. They didn’t have time to wait, 2024 is an election year after all.

Posted by: Lex | Feb 18 2024 21:31 utc | 83

The death and violence is crazy.
It’s pretty obvious that the RF have changed gears. The extreme numbers of dead Ukrops at the front lines and well behind is an escalation that is a step change.
It could get worse maybe a 5,000 day. Maybe 10,000 ? It is moving to these levels. We won’t be surprised , because like the proverbial boiling frog we have been conditioned to not feel it!
What next? Well the natzios had their spring offensive last year and that just got its final nail in the coffin.
If RF are going to have their turn at a Spring offensive! This looks like it. No need to wait until the blossoms are out is there? I guess the Dniper in the south and and extension West of the lines so never again can artillery fire on Donetsk. In the North, I suppose Belgorod needs similar. And straightening of the lines in between. A return stint for Surovikin to extend his defence lines on these gains so that any future Natzios will have an even more terrible time if they attempt any more follies later this year.
Then probably ceasefire. Then Ukraine regions can decide which side they want to be on. An offer that Odessa would be dumb to refuse. Kiev as the modern day split BerlIn. The front line where the new checkpoint Charlie gets to be built.
All that is not going to happen of course, it’s just my imagination. But it would be good to see the Mad Hatters party in Munich drinking champagne, eating Lobster, they already forgot Navalny getting some just desserts to go with their feast on the blood of the last Ukrainian. The geriatric Red Queen Pellosi and her mini-me VDL , unelected representatives all, having their Red Wedding and believing their lore, casting spells that will turn their disaster into victory. Not.
Surrender or Die ought to extend to all those murderous bastards. Not just the mince meat.

Posted by: DunGroanin | Feb 18 2024 21:36 utc | 85

Jo | Feb 18 2024 21:22 utc | 82
EU and US sent surplus stocks to Ukraine, retaining what was required for whatever size military they have. Those countries that send (if they do) all remaining stocks means they have zero intention of fighting Russia themselves. Artillery shells? Russia is fast ramping up its drone production including drone technology. Good range, one drone one kill, even guided artillery really need a non moving target whereas drones can hit a moving and maneuvering target.
It could be that some European countries are now thinking their barreled artillery is defunct as we move into a FPV drone age that will quickly be superseded by autonomous targeting drones.
Certainly the technology is there now to have a drone use inertial guidance to take it to a designated area and once there search out and destroy specific types of targets.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 18 2024 21:45 utc | 87

Certainly the technology is there now to have a drone
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 18 2024 21:45 utc | 87
—
Nothing has the throw weight efficiency of artillery, and artillery can be augmented with guidance the same as drones.

Posted by: too scents | Feb 18 2024 21:50 utc | 89

This is the 3 Brigade version of what happened in Avdeevka yesterday, in their own pressrelease:
THE THIRD ASSAULT BRIGADE SPOKE ABOUT THE WITHDRAWAL FROM AVDIIVKA AND THE LOSSES OF THE RUSSIANS
From the moment of redeployment of the Third Separate Assault Brigade in Avdiivka, units inflicted significant losses on a key strike group of the Russian army. This was reported in the press service of the brigade.
Despite a significant advantage in artillery, attack drones and the regular use of up to a hundred KABs per day, the enemy lost:
more than 1500 dead;
more than 3500 wounded;
and more than 20 units of armored vehicles.
“Until the moment of withdrawal, the fighters of the Third Assault Brigade did not allow the enemy to Make Complete encirclement of positions. The brigade retreated to prepared positions on the outskirts of Avdiivka and leveled the front line. Now the Russians are not depriving them of offensive momentum. We continue to hold the line.
https://zn.ua/ukr/war/v-tretij-shturmovij-brihadi-rozpovili-pro-vikhid-z-avdijivki-ta-vtrati-rosijan.html

Posted by: Paul from Norway | Feb 18 2024 21:59 utc | 91

too scents | Feb 18 2024 21:50 utc | 89
Guided shells are costly and quite limited. The also require a drone or anther at est some other unit that illuminates the target. They have very limited course correction as compared to a drone. At range they are in a steep decent and it would be quite difficult to take them in a door or other opening or weak point. Watch the little drones fly into a shelter in a trench or any other fortification. Unguided shells cheaper but a large circle of error so a large number is required. that means truckloads to the frontline which is also vulnerable. Counter battery is now very good, Russia now using the passive system.
Shoot and scoot? compare drones to conventional artillery in that respect….
There may be niches for conventional artillery for some time but it has been made obsolete with the emergence of small drone technology.
Small drones, precision glide bombs, missiles, ISR.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 18 2024 22:09 utc | 93

Posted by: Ossi | Feb 18 2024 17:33 utc | 39
“I cannot judge whether all of this points to the use of a new type of psycho-informational weapon. I was able to organize “antidote” for myself in a variety of ways and later I no longer consumed Ukrainian television so intensively. Ukrainians, on the other hand, have been living under an informational bell for almost ten years after all Russian channels were switched off on their cable networks, through which nothing can penetrate. Have our Ukrainian brothers and sisters perhaps become victims of a mass hypnosis that affects them every day?”
Very interesting observations Ossi, thanks for posting- do you have any links.
See this Pet Shop Boys, Go West music link from the start of the 90′, i remember the song well, but seeing it now gives me a whole different perspective:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNBjMRvOB5M

Posted by: Paul from Norway | Feb 18 2024 22:19 utc | 95

Paul from Norway | Feb 18 2024 22:19 utc | 95 “new type of psycho-informational weapon.”
“Why of course the people don’t want war. Why should some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece? Naturally the common people don’t want war neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship.
Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in any country.”
Hardly new. As Goering says, it works every time.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 18 2024 22:40 utc | 97

too scents | Feb 18 2024 22:05 utc | 92
Battery – counter battery, EW – counter EW.
Inertial navigation plus autonomous target acquisition –

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 18 2024 23:03 utc | 99