Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 15, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-050

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Avdeevka – Feb 5, 2024

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As an Ukrainian one would not want to be in Avdeevka right now and especially not in the former air defense base directly south of it.

Avdeevka – Feb 15, 2024

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Strana with news from the 3rd (Azov neo-nazi) brigade (machine translated):

In the 3rd assault brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they stated that there was not a single whole prepared position left in Avdiivka

At the time of the arrival of the 3rd assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Avdiivka , there was not a single whole prepared position left.

This was reported by an engineer of the 3rd OSHBR, whose words are quoted by the Ukrainian military telegram channel Deep State.

"In general, the situation is very similar to the Bakhmut defensive operation, when the infantry of the third assault group was forced to take up defense immediately from the march. And, as in the previous year, not a single position was prepared, because at the time of entry, those ramps that were held by subcontractors were already lost or destroyed," the engineer said.

Deep State considers the transfer of an assault unit to an operational environment to strengthen defensive actions "extremely strange."

And he notes that this decision was made before the change of the commander-in-chief, so you should not consider this rotation the idea of Syrsky.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Comments

Imagine Putin style instead of Truman style against Japan
Posted by: SlowSoft | Feb 15 2024 23:45 utc | 100
____
You mean defeating Japan without spectacular crimes against humanity?

Posted by: malenkov | Feb 15 2024 23:47 utc | 101

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 15 2024 23:00 utc | 90
In my view, Ukraine derives the greatest benefit from satellites, NATO drones and aeroplanes and does the most damage with them.
Without these things, many of Ukraine’s weapons, long-range drones, missiles, Himars, would also be completely or partially worthless.
The satellites … Well, only the Russians know that.
Aeroplanes are more likely to be active on NATO territory, or in the Black Sea at a distance (correct me).
But if there are drones in international, Russian or Ukrainian airspace and I think they are actively supporting enemy weapons systems, then they will be shot down. Otherwise the enemy will prepare for it.
Then the F-16 remains Romanian and sends the missile to Ukraine, which “takes it over in the air” and forwards it.
No, NATO supplies all kinds of weapons to Ukraine and declares that it will not provide any information.
The drones could have been Ukrainian long ago, just not stationed there.
If the USA etc. are really actively using drones for Ukrainian weapons, they know the risk of loss. There would not be enough substance for a world war.
If NATO wanted it, we would have it. That’s why drones, the risk of loss is factored in, the rest is cost-benefit and poker.

Posted by: 600w | Feb 16 2024 0:03 utc | 102

The west has brought their “brightest” journalists and historians together to rewrite ukranian history and narratives.
Posted by: Paul from Norway | Feb 15 2024 19:37 utc | 33
Upset by Putin’s brief history of Russia and Ukraine, the propagandists have decided to dazzle up with knowledge and baffle us with bullshit at the same time, but in three versions, for the TLDR population.
But they already rewrote Ukrainian history, and they started an entire generation off on it for the last 30 years.
No wonder so many Ukies are baffled enough to support the Kiev regime.
https://mronline.org/2022/08/31/from-nurseries-to-nazis/

Posted by: wagelaborer | Feb 16 2024 0:10 utc | 103

“The fact is that the deployment of nuclear weapons in space is ineffective in terms of its use, especially given that Russia has much simpler and cheaper means to disable a significant part of the US satellite constellation in the event of hostilities,” military analyst and editor-in-chief of the National Defense magazine Igor Korotchenko told Sputnik. Let’s explore what these potential systems are:
▪️The A-235 Nudol […]
▪️’Nanosatellites’ Nivelir, Burevestnik and Numismat. A series of stealth “satellite inspectors” could reportedly been placed in specific orbits to affect “adversary” satellites in various ways, including “inspecting” them, that is, by collecting all the necessary information about them.
▪️The 30P6 Kontakt (“Contact”) system […]
▪️The Tirada-2S radio-electronic communication suppression system is capable of conducting electronic jamming of satellite communications, in fact, satellites can be directly disabled from the Earth’s surface. […]
▪️The Peresvet laser weapons […]
Posted by: UWDude | Feb 15 2024 23:26 utc | 99

None of these are up to the actual task at hand here.
First, interceptors like Nudol are hugely expensive and bulky. Look up the video from the test. How many satellites are you going to intercept that way? And how high in the sky? And over what area of the globe? Then how many satellites do you need to disable? That sort of thing is more for downing space planes (if those are eventually deployed as space bombers), nuclear armed satellites (if the Outer Space Treaty is abandoned too), and some of the super expensive billion-dollar observation satellites. But e.g. disabling Starlink? Forget it, it’s too dispersed.
The jammers and ground-based lasers are great in terms of cost-effectiveness and firing rate, but again, they will only take out what is flying directly above you.
But then there is the big task ahead — how do you disable early warning systems so that you can carry out a proper disarming first strike? None of these systems does the job. Nudol launches will be detected and when the satellites start falling down, that will be a rather unambiguous sign to the US about what is about to happen and that they should press the red button. Ground-based jamming and blinding systems won’t do much to satellites flying over the NATO territory.
So you need to have a system that is out there in space and can shut down NATO ISR and early warning systems in such a way that it will give you a window of opportunity to launch the first strike before the enemy realizes what is happening.
How exactly you do that technically is beyond my paygrade — does that involve EMPs and nuclear explosions in outer space, or it is some kind of space-based EW system that is powered by a nuclear reactor (which would be a very different thing from situating nukes in space, but it is not hard to see how that can easily get mixed up)? Or something else? Anyway, the systems listed above don’t do the job, expect perhaps for the nanosatellites, but those would have to be different nanosatellites from what has been publicly revealed about them so far.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 16 2024 0:11 utc | 104

UWDude@92
The Crimean war was fought by Britain, France, and the Turks against Russia to prevent Russia from taking control of Constantinople and the Bosphorus and thus the Black Sea. Funny how we see things repeated. I’m sure the Brits would love to take Sevastopol again and remember how they were entrenching themselves in Odessa and training the Ukrainian Navy. Now they are at the forefront of the Black Sea operations and attempts to attack Crimea and the Kerch bridge. Some way or another I expect Russia to end up with control of the coast all the way to the Danube.

Posted by: the pessimist | Feb 16 2024 0:13 utc | 105

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 16 2024 0:11 utc | 104
Any ground based option seems too expensive, too sparse for mass disablement of enemy satellites.
Another complication is there are not only US satellites, but Indian and Chinese which could be a diplomatic issue (who cares about EU satellites).
First problem is knowing which satellites are US owned or controlled.
Second problem is figuring out methods of disabling them.
Third problem is figuring a way how to do it several thousand times, because, there might be tens of thousands of US satellites, Starlink included. Pentagon has supposedly mandated all, even commercial US satellites to be designed in a way which enables them to carry surveillance equipment like high-resolution cameras and cameras, that can see through weather effects.
There is no other realistic way than a space-based solution for disabling satellites. Not sure how these inspector satellites are supposed to work. They gather data apparently, but how do they disable a satellite?
One option could be a large ‘garbage collector’, i.e. a parabolic shaped ‘net’, which can collect ‘garbage’ i.e. satellites in space to its net. After the net is full, you could simply accelerate the thing toward the sun, decelerate, and off fly the satellites. But once again, the problem is there are allied satellites in orbit as well.
The ally problem would definitely require coordination with China. Otherwise it is impossible to deny access of space for the US.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 16 2024 0:25 utc | 106

In re: nukes in space…
China shot down a satellite in mid-orbit back some time in the middle/late 00s, IIRC. I would be surprised if Russia doesn’t already have that capability.
In re: collapse of Ukrainian lines….
First slowly slowly, and then in all-of-a-sudden (to paraphrase Hemingway).

Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Feb 16 2024 0:27 utc | 107

In case it hasn’t been pointed out (I don’t know because I’m simply not up for reading comments today, sorry if someone already did).
Possibly paraphrasing it: “the decision was already made”.
That notion is such a very strange “excuse” completely incongruent with decades if not centuries or millennia of warfare and in particular the most recent western approach with all the focus on “battle-space awareness”, hyper-connected data-driven information rich warfare, OODA loops, and all that jazz.
So… do they instead send all their orders using one-legged runners?
Or is it all just more untrue nonsense?
Just another point of weirdness to add onto an imaginary list (or a real one if one thinks one will live long enough to try to find out what the hell was going on).
At least they’ve stopped attacking Snake Island lol 😛

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Feb 16 2024 0:28 utc | 108

Satellites are useless without down-links/receivers and the relevant ones are big and well known, every single one on the entire planet, and not that hard to get rid of.
Russia can take out Svalbard and everywhere like it whenever they want to.
Zero need to go to space 🙂
No need to get to 6000+ km orbits where the truly juicy stuff is 🙂
(Okay so I read a comment or two by accident, I’m leaving now).

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Feb 16 2024 0:34 utc | 109

… rest is cost-benefit and poker.
Posted by: 600w | Feb 16 2024 0:03 utc | 102
I have read that the Russians play chess…
Not knocking what you said but I didn’t really get the gist of it. Satellites – at the time of the mobilization, Shougi said Nato were using 500 or so over Ukraine.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 16 2024 0:48 utc | 110

China shot down a satellite in mid-orbit back some time in the middle/late 00s, IIRC. I would be surprised if Russia doesn’t already have that capability.
Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Feb 16 2024 0:27 utc | 107

Yes, of course they do, that’s what the Nudol missile is, and it was tested in a real kinetic kill test in 2021, destroying an old Russian satellite.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 16 2024 0:52 utc | 111

As a CAA qualified drone pilot myself theres one thing, i find, that never to play havic with my drones……magnetic fields..

Posted by: HERMIUS | Feb 16 2024 0:52 utc | 112

….in fact, the drones wont even take off if theres a magnetic field nearby..

Posted by: HERMIUS | Feb 16 2024 0:53 utc | 113

Hmm, interesting – sending 3rd brigade for reinforecement instead of retreat order from Avdeyevka could be an indication of plot to deliberately weaken one of the UAF strongest units. 3rd brigade can pose significant threat to puppet Zelenski if he is going to start a peace talks with russians. Resignation of Zaluzhniy supports this too – he could disagree with what was going on. Add Ukraine aid voting failure to this picture. Yet, kind of classics – peace talks usually start after heavy defeat. And Baiden alarms on nuclear threat from Russian. Just an opinion. Coming days will show us if this scenario is true or not.

Posted by: asehi | Feb 16 2024 1:01 utc | 114

@ HERMIUS | Feb 16 2024 0:53 utc | 113 about magnetic fields and drones…..thanks!
How strong of fields and what is result of drone passing through/into zone?

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 16 2024 1:09 utc | 115

Starlink satellites run in a line and cluster, one after the other. I have watched them a few times while on hiking trips. I would guess the whole batch of 114 each launch are set in orbit this way, as that seems to be how many I witnessed each time.
Therefore, a cloud of debris in the path of the first would likely disable all 114.
Unlike missiles, satellites have a completely predictable route, (they are always on schedule, and can be mapped out months in advance) many of the anti missile challenges are absent with satellites, not to mention that they are not designed for combat, and usually the slightest damage will destroy them.

Posted by: UWDude | Feb 16 2024 1:09 utc | 116

HERMIUS | Feb 16 2024 0:53 utc | 113
The only CAA I can find in relation to flying is in NZ. Civil Aviation Authority.
I guess it depends where you are. I had a pilots licence with ASRA, and my whirlybird bird when I bought it was for the first year or so registered with ASRA. That only lasted for a year or so until I started modifying it and couldn’t be bothered to take it a long distance for eff wits to certify it. The pilots licence, for whatever reason I kept renewing, although I never needed it.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 16 2024 1:16 utc | 117

When the satellites go down the nukes go up, best hope the satellites stay where they are.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 16 2024 1:25 utc | 118

The U.S. Federal Government owes $34,000 Billion dollars in Debt at this moment in time.
Posted by: kupkee | Feb 15 2024 22:10 utc | 72
That should be 34 TRILLION, not Billion. It’s inescapable – the US economy is destined to collapse. That’s the real reason for the Ukraine war. And the US will take all the rest of its vassals – and its master, Israel – with it. It’s going to happen.
US Debt Clock

Posted by: lunarlaundromat | Feb 16 2024 1:38 utc | 119

Some videos for today.
Kiev regime rocket attacks killed six civilians at a store in Belgorod:
https://rutube.ru/video/80155f5738b1cd9050c3ee8dca0f7e2c/
RT frontline report from Kremennaya:
https://rutube.ru/video/7815c2922e973a54f1f23dd50aac66ca/
Russian drone-corrected artillery and FPV drones strike enemy positions near the DPR’s Artemovsk: https://rutube.ru/video/64348106aa49171db7c253942675f109/
Russian BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicle in action near Kupyansk:
https://rutube.ru/video/b9dc2706932f167df83143f8edf65b0a/
Russian Su-25s conduct airstrikes near Krasny Liman:
https://rutube.ru/video/bf4c3e9f28c475dde94ba2957365321e/

Posted by: Nate | Feb 16 2024 1:49 utc | 120

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 15 2024 21:03 utc | 56
>The Black Sea fleet has modern missile frigates and subs, not to mention a fair amount of skilled crew. The Black Sea ports are the home base and right now it is bottled up with the Bosporus closed to them but the fleet projected RF power in the Mediterranean and was how the forces in Syria were supplied. The fleet is a strategic asset to Russia. But, yes they are ducks in a pond, not sure where it all goes from here.
I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest the Russians are subconsciously trying to get their own surface navy destroyed, especially the Black Sea Fleet, in order to discredit the Russian naval lobby component of the Russian deep state, and furthermore cripple Russia’s ability to project power outside the EuroAsian land mass. This will free up resources for what matters: land army to project power to states directly bordering Russia/Belarus, drones, missiles, nukes, subs, space, AI, bio weapons, etc.
Militaries are incredibly conservative and it’s difficult to get them to reform. Sometimes you have to let obsolete groups be destroyed to prove a point. Those with foresight understood that drones were the future. But good luck convincing the military that $1000 toy quadcopters carrying grenades could accomplish as much as multi million dollar tanks or aircraft.
USA is going to eventually learn the hard way that it’s surface navy is also an obsolete sitting duck. US Navy lobby is far too powerful to be convinced other than by hard experience.
Correct way for both Russia and China to project power is by sending cutting edge missiles, drones, ISR to Houtis and other militants, via mostly land routes with maybe short sea passages (Iran to Arabian peninsula). They don’t need navies.

Posted by: anonposter | Feb 16 2024 1:52 utc | 121

HERMIUS | Feb 16 2024 0:53 “….in fact, the drones wont even take off if theres a magnetic field nearby….”
….in fact, the drones wont even take off if theres the Earth’s magnetic field nearby….

Posted by: yeah sure | Feb 16 2024 1:55 utc | 122

Putin: Between Hitler and Chamberlain
After 20 years of appeasement, Putin finally jettisoned his “peace in our time” policy with the West by invading Ukraine. Can Tucker Carlson pull Putin out of the cold and into alliance with the West?
https://www.beyondwasteland.net/p/putin-between-hitler-and-chamberlain

Posted by: KevinB | Feb 16 2024 2:02 utc | 123

KevinB | Feb 16 2024 2:02 utc | 123
Ever hear the term “Not anther step back”?

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 16 2024 2:19 utc | 124

Lol. Russia did not invade The Ukraine. After 14,000 people in Donbass and Lughansk were murdered from 2014 by the Zionists, Mr Putin was required to try and stop the attempted genocide by the Ukienazis. Quite right too.

Posted by: Merkin Scot | Feb 16 2024 2:22 utc | 125

Posted by: KevinB | Feb 16 2024 2:02 utc | 123
Putin: Between Hitler and Chamberlain
After 20 years of appeasement, Putin finally jettisoned his “peace in our time” policy with the West by invading Ukraine. Can Tucker Carlson pull Putin out of the cold and into alliance with the West?
https://www.beyondwasteland.net/p/putin-between-hitler-and-chamberlain
<=I don't think Tucker Carlson was trying to pull Putin in out of the cold, I think Putin was trying to use TC to send a message to the American people. This following is my summary of the first few minutes of Putin's history (@ the time when the Russian Leadership collapsed (1991) the Soviet Union; the leadership believed: 1. Ukraine was an integral [territorial] part of Russia, 2. the collapse erased the ideology which prevented Russia US cooperation and association. 3. No barriers to normalization of relations between Russia and the US existed. but since those times, 1. NATO opposition to Russia expanded Eastward 5 times [the Baltic States, the whole of Eastern Europe, and so on} 1. Russia has transition ed from a communist entity to a true market economy, 2, Communist Party power in Russia has disappeared completely so 1. why is there No negotiation between the Russian Federation and the United States? 2. why did the United States attempt to develop Ukraine into a NATO eligible entity? 3. why did not the opponents of Viktor Yanukovich not recognize his election victory? 4. why the treaty of association TOA (EU with Ukraine) deny Russia its free trade & close ties with Ukraine? 6. Why prosecute those who refused to accept the 2014 election coup? 5. Why immediately after Yanukovich refused to sign the TOA treaty, did the CIA backed Maidan Coup happen? 6. Why was Yeltsin immediately dragged through the mud, accused of alcoholism, of understanding nothing, of knowing nothing when Putin explained that Yeltsin understood everything? AS President(2000) Putin thought the Yugoslav issue is over so lets restore relations(with US): 1. Putin asked Bill Clinton, do you think if Russia asked to join NATO, do you think it would happen?“ 2. Putin claims Clinton said: ”You know, it's interesting, I think so.“ 3. But in the evening, after dinner, Clinton said, I've talked to my team, no-no, it's not possible now [for Russia to join NATO].“ 4. If he had said yes, the process of rapprochement would have commenced Tucker Carlson asked Putin, 1. Why.. the hostility? 2. Why did the end of the Cold War not fix the [broken] relationship? 3. What motivates this [refusal to cooperate] from your point of view? Vladimir Putin responded: 1. We realised we weren't welcome there (in NATO) 2. nonetheless let's look for common ground elsewhere. 3. We received such a negative response (about joining NATO), you should ask your leader. I do not see the justification for putting Putin between Hitler and Chamberlain. I would suggest Putin lies somewhere between George Washington, General of Army and first president of the Constitutional USA ..and Prince Bismark, the creator of the German Empire. He (Putin) pulled his country together and salvaged it from the oligarch-driven corporate vultures, few men could do more for their country?

Posted by: snake | Feb 16 2024 2:43 utc | 126

Lunarlaundromat @119
It seems that you missed the 3 zeroes after the 34 in kupkee’s post. 34,000 billion IS 34 trillion.

Posted by: AJ | Feb 16 2024 2:45 utc | 127

lunarlaundromat @119
Uhhhh halfwit, did you not see the number posted?? It was 34,000 Billion…
what does that look like to you??

Posted by: bisfugged | Feb 16 2024 2:45 utc | 128

Looks like avdivka is a bigger catastrophe than bakhmut. By multiples.
Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers trapped. Many running away through open mudfields
There’s no kind of propaganda in the universe that will fix this one.

Posted by: Comandante | Feb 16 2024 2:57 utc | 129

Posted by: lunarlaundromat | Feb 16 2024 1:38 utc | 119
>>That should be 34 TRILLION…
$34,000 Billion is $34 Trillion.

Posted by: Jmaas | Feb 16 2024 3:13 utc | 130

@117
(U.S.) CAA became FAA in 1958ish.

Posted by: UBAH | Feb 16 2024 3:13 utc | 131

As this is an international blog could people please specify if they are using European or US billions etc.
The childish US system is annoying but please grasp yankees that 34,000 Billion is only 34 trillion is the US baby system. In the real world it stays as 34,000 billion. 34 trillion is in fact 34 billion, billion so 34 ,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 or in scientific language 34 x 10 to the power of 24. A US trillion is 1,000 US billion so 34 trillion is only 34 000,000,000,000 or in scientific language 34 x 10 to the power of 12.
It is a HUGE difference, so people must be specific.
Yes the yankee system is a bit easier to express but it is mathematically illogical. What we probably need is some additional names to make the difference clear. Us Billion could be thermillion (for thousand million) and US trillion therbillion.

Posted by: watcher | Feb 16 2024 3:14 utc | 132

You mean defeating Japan without spectacular crimes against humanity?
Posted by: malenkov | Feb 15 2024 23:47 utc | 101
You mean like what Stalin was doing? That’s why the US used the nukes.

Posted by: Honzo | Feb 16 2024 3:26 utc | 133

When the satellites go down the nukes go up, best hope the satellites stay where they are.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 16 2024 1:25 utc | 118
Exactly. Having the capability is only useful once the nuclear conflict is underway, because it will certainly cause it if it’s not going already.
There’s another issue- actually destroying satellites physically produces a lot of debris in random and unpredictable orbits, endanger all satellites, including one’s own, in an unpredictable manner. If someone shot down a thousand enemy satellites, their own would start getting hit as well.
It’s hard to calculate the circumstances under which this would be ‘worth it.’

Posted by: Honzo | Feb 16 2024 3:34 utc | 134

You mean like what Stalin was doing?
Posted by: Honzo | Feb 16 2024 3:26 utc | 133
What was Stalin doing that was similar to the firebombing and nuking of civilians?

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 16 2024 3:36 utc | 135

Posted by: watcher | Feb 16 2024 3:14 utc | 132
Watcher, the American system is the default in scientific textbooks and literature. In this case it’s more logical, unlike the case with miles, pounds, and Fahrenheit.

Posted by: Afro | Feb 16 2024 3:38 utc | 136

UBAH | Feb 16 2024 3:13 utc | 131
Thanks.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 16 2024 3:39 utc | 137

What was Stalin doing that was similar to the firebombing and nuking of civilians?
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 16 2024 3:36 utc | 135
Smashing the IJA forces in Manchuria and launching amphibious island seizures with surprising speed. After the victory over Germany & helpers.
Whilst robbing the Japanese of their last hope of a victory/stalemate.
I believe you misunderstood what the other poster, was getting at.

Posted by: Urban Fox | Feb 16 2024 4:04 utc | 138

Surfing the Intertubes I saw this posting title at BBC
Ukraine Russia war: US warns Avdiivka could fall
What is the fall back position for Ukraine from here?
Events could start happening more quickly and there will be more desperation shown, I expect.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 16 2024 4:06 utc | 139

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 16 2024 1:25 utc | 118
>When the satellites go down the nukes go up, best hope the satellites stay where they are.
Absurd. Neither USA nor anyone else is going to start all out strategic war because of loss of satellites. However, whole world will be furious if humanity loses satellite communication for a decade or more until debris from satellite explosions can be removed, during which time no further satellites can be successfully put into orbit. Russia cannot afford to anger Chinese. So satellite attacks off limits unless and until Chinese authorize them.

Posted by: anonposter | Feb 16 2024 4:22 utc | 140

above tweet – Avdiivka folded

Posted by: crone | Feb 16 2024 4:25 utc | 142

Space is huge, and three dimensional. Satellite debris is a non issue. The chances of it colliding with other satellites is minimal, and hitting your targets without damaging your own satellites, if using conventional shrapnel almost impossible.
Also, an attack on a satellite network would most definitely warrant a nuclear response, as it signals the beginning of total war.

Posted by: UWDude | Feb 16 2024 4:38 utc | 143

I mean hitting your targets and accidentally hitting your own satellites is almost impossible.

Posted by: UWDude | Feb 16 2024 4:40 utc | 144

Another comment despite being completely shot. Gimme leeway I’m exhausted and can’t remember if the high birds are at 6000 or 60000 (it doesn’t actually matter!).
Sorry for lack of editing and structure, this wanders back and forth a bit. Can’t be assed. Running through points and tangents at pace.
It (taking out the satellites) is worth it if one is not a large “powerful” nation that rely on satellites of any kind. Or maybe if one is not a nation at all.
There are civilian subcultures dedicated to tracing everything up there, even the X-whatever Pentagon space plane/micro shuttle that can shit orbits like nobody’s business and also the low visibility spy stuff. People that are the polar opposites to the “imperfectly cloaked alien satellite” crowd.
All the satellites in the world obviously bring zero real “situational awareness” as it is for a “terminal loser politic” like the US so for all practical purposes they might as well try to launch all their nukes right away if they’re so scared of losing touch with reality (since that happened decades ago) 😛
(Seems I’ve stopped worrying and learnt to love the bomb (to quote Dr. Strangelove). I don’t care about US nukes any more, or Russian, or Chinese, or any other ones. Thousands of bombs and zero moral fiber on their part makes it all redundant and irrelevant; they can’t even stop an obvious genocide and it makes them all pathetic and risible).
Anyway I have some “ancient” comments on these subject matters here on MoA. Nothing has changed.
Sounding rockets filled with needles are enough to take out everything up to 400 km (LEO, Low Earth Orbit) with ease; cascading failures aka Kessler syndrome.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome
In my fried brain very very roughly ten times higher than LEO is the Geosynchronous Earth Orbit but simple sounding rockets can reach those too but a slightly different approach of intersection is needed, same for the fancy stuff even higher up.
I mentioned the forward facing “shotgun approach” idea in my ancient posts; this means one doesn’t even need to reach all the way with the rocket since a payload explosion is the final and extremely efficient stage/”staging event”. This general approach could imply that you don’t even need a “proper” sounding rocket for lower down stuff but that anything that gets you to a 100 k’s will do.
One could possibly start talking about balloons and well science fair “kid’s stuff” levels of investments. People might not be aware that young teenagers are occasionally sending stuff to the edge of space… or getting their stuff shut down by expensive US rockets as happened not that long ago because of a *omg Chinese spy balloons!!!!* panic …
Last I paid any real attention to genuine space stuff tiny small groups of civilians were trying to reach 100k on a shoestring budget of maybe 60 thousand USD or so and also get their rocket back like a miniature version of the Anzari X-Prize etc. These are rockets so small they couldn’t even lift a cubesat but something roughly like a can of coke worth of nails and explosives might be doable. (Yes I know cansat is a thing just like cubesat, as is the pongsats popularized by those wacky Texans (iirc?) with über-balloons —I should check on them too, haven’t for years after my health took an extra dive).
…maybe I accidentally revealed the US bs paranoia about a new weapon lol (I’m obviously joking, all that is pure drama; they downplay Poseidon but make up silly stuff about rumors that would be nothing new. It takes zero new technology or ability for anyone with an ICBM to explode a nuke in space, teh US has done precisely that on a few occasions themselves (high-altitude and space tests, blah blah blah))…
Rough proof of concept on the nails comes straight from the US who once upon a time (1950ies or so) released a bunch of needles into space that are still hanging around up there.
A website I haven’t visited in years called “The Space Review” (don’t remember if it was dot org or dot com) should have some articles about it and lots of other stuff like it. At least some old ones but who knows maybe they have some new ones too.
I realize most people have zero knowledge about or interest in any of this stuff and don’t blame them for it.
Okay I’ll stop rambling now, doubt anyone will use the enormous amount of information I’m trying to convey anyways. It’s all out there if you’re actually interested, search and you will find.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Feb 16 2024 4:46 utc | 145

anonposter 140
No, the nuke war starts with first taking out the satellites. You see satellites going down too late to dig your backyard shelter, best kill you prepper neighbor and take his.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 16 2024 4:55 utc | 146

Kessler cascade is an alarmist theory that looks scary when viewing a chart with massively oversized dots to display the amount of space junk.
If one were to make a 3d model, to scale, those dots would be tiny specks you would need to take minutes just to zoom in on each one.
Yes, in time, as perhaps millions of orbital drones are launched into orbit, then maybe it could be an issue. But for now, it simply isnt. Some objects get within 200m of each other once a year, and it would take over a century of orbital decline for them to meet. Even then, the “cascade” theory is still silly
I saw the history channel documentary on this subject too decades ago. It is sci-fi entertainment, along side killer asteroids, megavolcanoes, and moon break away theory.
Anyways, this is straying more and more OT, so ill stop here.

Posted by: UWDude | Feb 16 2024 4:55 utc | 147

You mean defeating Japan without spectacular crimes against humanity?
Posted by: malenkov | Feb 15 2024 23:47 utc | 101
You mean like what Stalin was doing? That’s why the US used the nukes.
Posted by: Honzo | Feb 16 2024 3:26 utc | 133
What was Stalin doing that was similar to the firebombing and nuking of civilians?
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 16 2024 3:36 utc | 135
Nothing, he was defeating the Japanese without spectacular crimes against humanity. You seem to have lost the thread.

Posted by: Honzo | Feb 16 2024 4:57 utc | 148

@Posted by: watcher | Feb 16 2024 3:14 utc | 132
In the world of finance and economics its 1,000,000,000 is 1 billion, 1,000 billion is a trillion – a million million. The Brits used to used the other scale, but it now uses this scale as well. That’s the standard so just get over it.

Posted by: Roger | Feb 16 2024 5:02 utc | 149

Posted by: watcher | Feb 16 2024 3:14 utc | 132
And so now we descend into silliness. Perhaps watcher failed to notice the $ sign properly placed in front of both numbers, thus asserting USA currency. As that can also also be taken by context, it wouldn’t be wrong even if the dollar sign was left out.
>>What we probably need is some additional names to make the difference clear.
Lets see; thousand, million, billion, trillion displacing three, six, nine and twelve zeros respectively.
Not that I think you are actually serious in your comment

Posted by: Jmaas | Feb 16 2024 5:06 utc | 150

Honzo | Feb 16 2024 4:57 utc | 148
Re read your 101 comment and I did read it the wrong way.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 16 2024 5:22 utc | 151

Feral Finster
RE: escalation dominance
It means that Russia has the ability to overmatch anything that the west can do in Ukraine. And Russia has clearly demonstrated its escalation dominance in the last 10 years. Examples:
1
West: The USA stages a coup in neutral Ukraine to bring it into NATO’s camp.
Russia: Russia seizes Crimea and an active territorial dispute in the Donbass prevent Ukraine from joining NATO.
West: Arms, trains, and funds Ukraine then pressures Zelensky to crush the Donbass.
2
Russia: Invades Ukraine and takes 4 oblasts.
3
West: Sanctions Russia.
Russia: Does import substitution and increases trade with the global south, which accelerates the decline of the dolar and US hegemony.
Not to mention favorable artillery ratios, kill ratios, MIC production ratios, or thwarting western artillery with Penicillin or western missiles with layered air defenses or western drones with electronic warefare.
Escalation dominance doesn’t mean that Russia responds to Polish mercenaries by invading Poland or the sinking of the Muscva with the sinking of an aircraft carrier. It means that whatever the west brings to bear in Ukraine, Russia has the capacity to produce an overmatch.

Posted by: team10tim | Feb 16 2024 5:31 utc | 152

Institute for the Study of War
@TheStudyofWar
NEW: Russian forces are conducting a tactical turning movement through Avdiika likely to create conditions that would force Ukrainian troops to withdraw from their positions in the settlement. Key Takeaways on Avdiivka: (1/4)
……
— GEROMAN — time will tell – 👀 —
@GeromanAT
Russian Tactical Turning Movement is the new term for retreat for Ukrainian forces now in the NATO universe…
You can’t make this Orwellian shit up.
Remember Mariupol? And how they called the surrender there?
………..

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 16 2024 5:33 utc | 153

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 15 2024 22:46 utc | 84
I’m happy to see any number of Azovs killed in a firebag! But (i) the Azos only went there recently for a *failed* unblocking venture, (ii) Dima reported that the newly assigned Azovs had a hissy fit at being told to spend their last days merely digging-in, instead of playing commando-heroes. So pissed off were they that they spat the dummy and “refused”.
So, methinks Putin would show fraternal compassion for the surrounded bunch of baby boys and old men left there with little to no ammo. Dima postulated “a deal in the making” to prevent the 360° slaughter of 3,500 in the old airport and 4,500 in the city proper. We’ll see in a day or two.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Feb 16 2024 5:37 utc | 154

HERMIUS | Feb 16 2024 0:53 utc | 113
The CAA (Civil Aviation Authority) is UK based and covers all aviation in the UK.
If youre drone is below 250g you dont need a drone licence but you need to register. Further, if the drone doesnt have a camera and below 250g its classed as a toy, so it doesnt need to be registered at all.
All drones above 250g are subject to increased restrictions as the weight rises. E.g. a 250g drone can fly over people and property but above that weight the drone must be 50 metres from people and property sideways. The distance increases with weight of the drone.
However, if the drone operator registers as a pilot and passes the CAA exam restrictions are less. Eg i can fly 15mtrs from people with a drone over 250g.
The rules are constantly changing though as drones are a new phenomena and the authorities are still observing their imoact.

Posted by: HERMIUS | Feb 16 2024 5:38 utc | 155

Posted by: Jmaas | Feb 16 2024 5:06 utc | 150
er the $ is also Australian currency, so no it is not obvious,
My point is essentially that when people post numbers they should make it clear if they are using US or other metrics. Yes it is obvious the US Billion/trillion has won the day, but if people challenge a number, which is what happened above have the common courtesy to check that everyone is using the same measuring system. The number of times i have seen mistakes because of confusion in measuring units makes me very conscious of this problem

Posted by: watcher | Feb 16 2024 5:40 utc | 156

@all – I deleted off-topic comments and the thread has now shrunken from 65 comments to 22.
Posted by: b | Feb 15 2024 18:57 utc | 23
What a laugh … tomorrow will be the same, and the next day….

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Feb 16 2024 5:47 utc | 157

https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses/47535
Wounded Ukrainian soldier abandoned by his mates talks to his mother on video.
“Who will save you?” she asks, crying.
The Russians, unless of course the nazis decide to blow up the wounded first.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Feb 16 2024 6:19 utc | 158

Given the mum net of Azovites and Vlasovites poured into Avdeevka, I doubt the Russian soldiers on the ground are particularly interested in taking prisoners. They remember the 1700 captured at Azovstal and how many of them were then traded back, only to immediately go to fight again.
[On that topic, remember the Faker shrugging off the return of those nazis by claiming the Ukranazi regime would think that they were brainwashed by Russia and never trust them again? That turned out as true as his prediction of late 2021 that the Ukranazi military were all drunk, demoralised, and would not put up a fight. ]

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Feb 16 2024 6:23 utc | 159

The new AFU top General is called The Butcher, and now Adiivka is falling? Those dragooning people off Ukrainian streets to serve at the front might soon get pushback from angry mobs, or even shot at by very determined pacifists.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Feb 16 2024 6:25 utc | 160

Space is huge, and three dimensional. Satellite debris is a non issue. The chances of it colliding with other satellites is minimal, and hitting your targets without damaging your own satellites, if using conventional shrapnel almost impossible.
Posted by: UWDude | Feb 16 2024 4:38 utc | 143

Yeah, the chances are so minimal that the one time the Russians actually did a kinetic test and shot down one of their own old satellites, the debris hit the ISS.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 16 2024 6:33 utc | 161

Yeah, the chances are so minimal that the one time the Russians actually did a kinetic test and shot down one of their own old satellites, the debris hit the ISS.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 16 2024 6:33 utc | 161
Good luck finding a link for this lie.

Posted by: UWDude | Feb 16 2024 7:38 utc | 162

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 16 2024 6:33 utc | 161
do you see the pending Russian victory at Avdeevka as significant?

Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 16 2024 7:45 utc | 163

Where is Azov?
Did Syrskyi really manage to move the 3rd Azov Brigade into Avdeevka before the gap closed? If so, he has showed some genius!

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Feb 16 2024 7:55 utc | 164

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Feb 16 2024 7:55 utc | 164
rest in pieces Azov. that is going to piss the neonazis off.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 16 2024 8:02 utc | 165

Sunny Runny Burger | Feb 16 2024 4:46 utc | 145
I’ll second that, The Space Review is definitely worth checking out. Especially the articles by Bart Hendrickx on Russian military space. Like this one on Russia’s upcoming nuclear powered electronic warfare satellite that could jam other satellites or blanket an entire front with EW from orbit. A few of those would be very helpful at the moment.
shаdοwbanned | Feb 16 2024 6:33 utc | 161
Do you mean whatever hit the radiator on the Soyuz? I think even the US walked back that claim. The debris cloud from the A-235 hit was much smaller than the West expected, it’s possible the kill vehicle did a clever maneuver at the last moment to reduce its impact speed rather than just slamming into the satellite.

Posted by: S.P. Korolev | Feb 16 2024 8:06 utc | 166

re: satellite warfare
Yes, the Russians and Chinese both have anti-satellite missiles, but they both have also developed something more environmentally friendly.
Blowing up satellites makes an enduring mess. An approach to taking out satellites that respects the purity of the orbit it was in is to push a target satellite into a different orbit that intersects the atmosphere. Easy as can be.
Perhaps if you are a fanatic of spaceflight tech and news you have heard squealing of indignation from the Empire over the last several years as both Russia and China launched satellites that adjust their orbits to “fly” close to other satellites. Basically, these are autonomous “drone” satellites. The Russians ones just match orbits with American spy satellites while staying hundreds of miles away. Thing is, once you’ve matched orbits you might as well be right next to the target satellite because closing the remaining distance takes no effort.
The Chinese, on the other hand, bring their satellite drones into near or actual contact with target satellites that they also launch (they get close enough that when observing from Earth they appear to touch). The Chinese say the drone satellites are for repairing damaged satellites or de-orbiting old and defunct satellites, so I assume the drones are equipped with manipulators that can grapple with the target satellite. To de-orbit a satellite, the drone just grapples with the target satellite (use its manipulator to grab some convenient grapple point or protrusion on the target satellite) and then uses its own orbital correction thrusters to adjust their shared orbit into one that intersects the atmosphere. Once the target satellite is in its new terminal orbit and heading for a fiery end, the drone lets go and uses its thrusters to move on to the next target. To keep the target satellite from using its own thruster to restore its orbit, the drone might have a bolt cutter feature on its manipulator to sever power and fuel lines for the target’s thrusters before pushing it into the atmosphere.
The Russians and Chinese thus both have the demonstrated capability to eliminate satellites without making a mess of low Earth orbit.
The Chinese have gone a step further in preparations for war that results in space assets being destroyed: the CZ-11 launcher. This is a cheap, light, solid fueled (meaning storable) launcher that can launch on short notice from a mobile TEL and put near half a ton into orbit. Half a ton is enough to put up replacement BeiDou (GPS) and comms satellites. China has these stockpiled. Basically, China has the ability to restore its satellite navigation system and other essential orbital assets on short notice.
The US has its own space-based anti-satellite system that relies upon lasers. This has been tested on Russian spacecraft, damaging them. This makes the American system the only one that has been used against a partner enemy.
There are pros and cons to the different approaches.

Posted by: William Gruff | Feb 16 2024 8:31 utc | 167

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 15 2024 22:23 utc | 74
Banal reasons: it’s an available channel for Russian tactical communications, to be exploited for however long the opportunity remains, mindful that security is probably nonexistent, a calculated risk for small units that don’t represent a concentration of forces or a great loss if their comms are compromised, an extension of the logic that finds the battlefield awash with commercial radios sporting non-military components and unvalidated firmware (search “tetra hack” for an example in a comparable product space), or hobbyist drones carrying grenades, for that matter. There was a TG post on this but I can’t find it now, probably in Russian.

Posted by: anon2020 | Feb 16 2024 8:36 utc | 168

do you see the pending Russian victory at Avdeevka as significant?
Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 16 2024 7:45 utc | 163

It will reduce the bombardment of Donetsk from daily to weekly. Which is a win.
But it’s several hundred more Avdeevka’s to Novovolynsk…

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 16 2024 8:41 utc | 169

https://twitter.com/vicktop55/status/1758394200247226652

“A company of soldiers of the 82nd Airborne Division of the United States was transferred to Constanta, Romania.
There are rumors that there have been various flights in recent days and reinforcements will arrive in the region in the coming days.
Constanta is one of the key points of the main US supplies to Ukraine through Greece, Bulgaria and Romania, and on the other hand, goods are delivered here by ships and then sent to Ukraine.
The sudden appearance of the 82nd Airborne Division here has two meanings.
First, part of the personnel will be transferred to Ukraine for command, control and fire support of existing defense lines.
Secondly, the planning of possible new attacks on Crimea will be carried out with Ukrainian personnel under their leadership as close as possible to the place of hostilities.
Apparently, a new high-profile attack will be launched soon in the Crimea or on objects in the Black Sea,” – “Militarist”
Apparently, a loud attack by the Russian Armed Forces on US military facilities in Europe and not only in Europe will be launched soon. That’s what you want in the White House, right?

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 16 2024 8:44 utc | 170

lunarlaundromat | Feb 16 2024 1:38 utc | 119
The word that you are looking for is ‘milliard’, a thousand millions, as used to describe the amount, in gold francs, 5,000 million of them, of the indemnity levied on France after the war in 1871.
Calling a milliard a billion and a billion a trillion is measure of the inflationary tendencies of US culture.
Still, as Roger points out, that train has left the platform- usage is all.

Posted by: bevin | Feb 16 2024 8:48 utc | 171

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/88860

❗️❗️❗️Evgeniy Poddubniy writes:
During reconnaissance, servicemen of the State Border Defense Group detected a Vampire MLRS vehicle that was striking Belgorod. The vehicle was moving in the vicinity of the village of Liptsy. In the evening at around 9 p.m., Russian Army missileers launched a strike using an OMTC. As a result, the crew and the combat vehicle were destroyed. During the strike there are killed and wounded among the enemy personnel who were in the target zone of our missile.
The personal hunt for terrorists who are shelling civilian objects on the territory of Belgorod region continues.
The day before, as a result of a terrorist attack of the Kiev regime on Belgorod with the use of MLRS of Czech production, 7 people were killed. An infant child was killed by Ukrainian militants. The enemy fired 18 rockets from the Liptsy settlement (40 kilometers from Belgorod). 14 rockets our air defense calculations managed to intercept. Had it not been for the actions of the Russian Army units the casualties would have been much greater.
The terrorist attack is revenge of the Kiev regime for failures on the front. The enemy army is an army of cowards and infanticides.

Hopefully true. But there is more where that one came from.
The whole Czech MIC should have been smoldering ruins after the December 30th and the Czech foreign minister publicly laughing in the Russians face about it. And the Czech foreign ministry too, of course.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 16 2024 8:49 utc | 172

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/88859

Statement by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in connection with Ukrainian attacks on the city of Energodar
The Kiev regime continues dangerous provocations against the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant and its satellite city Energodar, where plant employees and members of their families live.
On February 14, from 18:00 to 18:40 Moscow time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces carried out an attack on the city of Energodar using unmanned aerial vehicles. One of them hit an administrative building, three others were suppressed by electronic warfare.
The Kiev regime has once again demonstrated its complete disregard for the safe operation of peaceful nuclear facilities and its desire to achieve its criminal goals by any means, including by creating threats to the life and health of Zaporozhye NPP personnel.
We hope that the IAEA leadership will still take a responsible position and unequivocally point to Kiev as the only source of threat to the reliable functioning of the Zaporozhye NPP.

Sternly worded statements don’t have any effects. If they did, the Ukrainians would have stopped shelling Energodar after the first few such strikes. Which were a year and a half ago…
The actual solutions are
1) Do to them something that will hurt so much that they will think twice about ever carrying out such terrorist acts again
2) Physically liquidate everyone willing and able to carry them out.
Russia has the means to do both. But not the balls.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 16 2024 8:53 utc | 173

Something good might come out of this, if true:
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/88853

🇷🇺🇺🇦The Russian Army has concentrated enormous forces and is preparing a new offensive at Rabotino on the Zaporozhye Front.
“The group that has concentrated in the Orekhovsky direction over the past few days or weeks, in its size, exceeds in personnel the group that is now involved in the Avdeevsky direction. The Russians did not go there for a walk,” said the speaker of the Tavria Armed Forces group “Likhovy.”
“The accumulation of significant Russian forces towards Rabotino was noticed more than 2 weeks ago,” one of the Ukrainian Armed Forces officers, quoted by Ukrainian sources, also said.

And the target isn’t Rabotino, it has to be at least Orekhov, perhaps, if the AFU is indeed really degraded, even a push towards the big city (which still needs to be liberated after the Russian constitutional changes of September 2022).
But then we heard the same from the Ukrainians about a huge Russian army in eastern Kharkov, and nothing happened…

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 16 2024 8:57 utc | 174

From Legitimny

Our source reports that Commander-in-Chief Syrsky made an earlier decision to hold/recapture Avdeevka for only one reason: he did not want to begin his reign with a defeat at the front.
The Avdeevsky case has nothing to do with strategy, it’s a stupid political move for the sake of personal ego. Once again, the best were sent to the meat grinder for political/image purposes.
In addition to the difficult situation in Avdeevka, where everyone is already saying that the Avdeevka meat grinder is underway, by analogy with Bakhmut, problems have begun for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and in the Azov area, where the RF Armed Forces are preparing to nullify all the successes of Bankova.
There are even rumors that the Russians have set a goal to take Orekhov and then move on to Zaporozhye this year.
At the same time, Bankovaya is draining reserves to show everyone that they are going on the offensive.
Bankova is working to shift the emphasis from the fall of Avdeevka and possibly the “Avdeevka cauldron.”
Office workers are raising scandals with non-payment of casino taxes and have even reached the point of taxis. As they say, you can’t do anything to distract the “hamsters.”
By the way, we were one of the first to write about the Avdeevka noose, warning Bankova about the “tightening the noose” scenario, but as usual, they slept through everything. Now, after unsuccessful counterattacks, a hasty withdrawal of the group began. Many in such a hurry can be captured by the “cauldron”, which we wrote about back at the moment when Ze was promoting himself in Avdeevka.
There is no point in talking about losses during such an “escape.”
We are waiting for Bankovaya to declare ex-commander-in-chief Zaluzhny to blame for the loss of Avdievka. Zelensky wanted to “kill” Zaluzhny’s rating with such a maneuver. Will they try?
Our source reports that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are losing Avdiivka not because they have less of something, but because the forces were distributed incorrectly and the chosen tactics led to collapses.
Avdeevka is the most powerful fortified area, which could be held for a very long time by infantry, but subject to the correct distribution of forces and quick response.

Posted by: Down South | Feb 16 2024 8:58 utc | 175

From Rezident

Our source in the General Staff said that Syrsky was unable to hold Avdeevka despite all the resources that he received after his appointment as Commander-in-Chief. While defending Bakhmut, Syrsky had limited forces, and Zaluzhny insisted on the withdrawal of troops from the city, now, despite all the reserves and capabilities of the Commander-in-Chief, the situation is only getting worse, and losses are growing.
This is what Avdeevka’s reserve supply artery looks like, but Syrsky promised Zelensky to hold the city, which is why reserves are sent there. Our source reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to leave positions and leave the Avdeevka meat grinder, which became the reason for statements about the transition to new positions, in this way the General Staff is hiding panic in the city.
In Avdeevka, our units are partially withdrawing to more advantageous positions, – speaker of the Tauride Defense Forces
At the time the 3rd Assault entered Avdeevka there was not a single intact prepared position left there. “Supply and evacuation to Avdeevka is difficult, but a reserve logistics artery is being used, which was prepared in advance,” said Dmitry Likhovoy.
Our source in the General Staff said that there were heavy losses near Avdeevka, no one was transporting the wounded due to lack of supplies. The transferred reserves suffer heavy losses, the 3rd Assault Brigade defends in an open field, which makes it an easy target for enemy artillery.
Our source in the General Staff said that our units inside Avdiivka are deprived of artillery support, while the enemy is not firing shells. The city is being turned into ruins by aerial bombs, which makes it impossible for our military to hold positions for a long time.
In AZOV they realized their fate, that they were simply thrown into the Avdeya meat grinder, in which the enemy simply grinds them, and the losses among personnel are enormous.
The chief of staff of the Azov brigade, Major Bogdan Krotevich, publicly commented on the situation in Avdievka, where the 3rd assault brigade was recently transferred.
He stated that in this section of the front it is necessary to “cut off the advancing enemy forces from the flank” and “not fight head-on with the Russians.”
“You can’t fight head-on with the Russian army. And in general, with any army, exchanging direct blows like drunken drunks is stupid. Why do we constantly run into the same mistake?! It’s not technological progress that will save us, at least you need a million Highmars give – it’s how you use them that matters!” – writes Krotevich.
You need to understand that such a statement is a step of despair, since it is clear what the meat grinder will lead to.
Our source in the General Staff said that riots are brewing in the brigades sent to help in Avdiivka, due to the desire of the new Commander-in-Chief to curry favor with Zelensky for his position.
Units are sent one by one into the meat grinder, but at the same time they declare how important the lives of Ukrainian soldiers are. There is real hell in Avdeevka, enemy aviation and artillery are working mercilessly, and dozens of FABs are flying into the coke plant.
The reserves refuse to move to unprepared positions that are not covered by artillery, and the wounded cannot be taken out of positions. Ordinary military personnel consider Syrsky a butcher who embodies the worst traditions of the Soviet army.

Posted by: Down South | Feb 16 2024 9:04 utc | 176

📋🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Two Majors #Report for the Morning of 16 February 2024; pub. 06:58📍
🔹In the #Avdeyevka sector, the RF Armed Forces broke through the enemy’s defences in the area of the “Zenit” fortified area in the southern section of the front, advanced 2 km deep into enemy positions. The enemy fled, leaving the fortifications being built since 2014. In #Avdeyevka itself, the Russian Army crossed Industrial Avenue and completed wedging into the AFU defence in the city, cutting it in two. Our fighters took house after house yesterday. The enemy was not helped by the transfer of the most motivated and trained units from the AFU’s 3rd Separate Assault Brigade, which is based on selected Nazis from the Azov Terrorists to the #Avdeyevka sack. The Filtration Station was taken under control, our troops broke into the territory of the Coke Plant. The AFU still have the opportunity to move along secondary roads like the M113 motorway, according to Russian military commanders.
🔹In the #Kherson direction, there are no changes. A few AFU units continue to sit in basements in #Krynki. The enemy inflicts the main damage to our troops with the help of drones, artillery and remote mining.
🔹From the #Crimea, after the destruction of the large landing ship “Caesar Kunikov”, they announced the dismissal of the of the Black Sea Fleet commander, which is an uncharacteristic and very quick decision for the Russian Army.
🔹On the #Zaporozhye front, the enemy estimates our grouping of troops as outnumbering even the shock formations of the RF Armed Forces in the #Avdeyevka sector. The enemy is waiting for the Russian Army to go on the offensive in this front section.
🔹In the direction of #Kurakhovo, there are battles in #Georgiyevka, our troops are trying to approach the settlement from the southeast. South of #Maryinka, in #Novomikhaylovka, our troops are advancing towards the center of the settlement.
🔹In the direction of Chasov Yar, the Russian Army attacks at #Bogdanovka and #Ivanovskoye (#Krasnoye).
☠️ Yesterday, the AFU fired at #Belgorod from MLRS. The blow fell on peaceful objects such as a shopping center and school grounds. Although some of the missiles were intercepted, 7 people were killed and 19 wounded, the governor said. In the #DPR, three civilians were injured from Nazi shelling.
🎬 No bridge will save you – our pilots will reach you everywhere!🪖 Why use heavy artillery and destroy engineering structures, when you can beat them with lighter means where possible. The video shows an example of the unsuccessful movement of a small group of the enemy, who ultimately did not manage to escape anywhere.👇

https://t.me/two_majors/19253

Posted by: Down South | Feb 16 2024 9:06 utc | 177

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 15 2024 22:23 utc | 74
https://t.me/Lunay14/14998

Comrade Shurygin, your commentator overly exaggerates the intelligence and capabilities of the enemy and downplays the understanding of the risks of our battalion commanders and the communications commanders of the battalions, which have been really fighting for 2 years now. Yes, mistakes still happen, but less and less often. Few people will place old items directly in the headquarters; there are different possibilities for removal.
The American intelligence services are also heterogeneous and some of them are for Democrats, and some are for Republicans, and they also do not have super order, just as people work there too. And some people have agreements, including with our special services.
Starlinks cannot become a brake on the development of our communication systems, but bureaucrats and embezzlers have been and remain a brake.
But there is no need to touch the logic of the combat commander, and God forbid that she continues to work to look for opportunities to strengthen the unit, even with Starlink, even with Tricolor, or maybe just a Wi-Fi bridge – there are different options.
As for chaos, the motto of one of the principalities in “Game of Thrones” comes to mind: “what is dead cannot die.” In 2 years we have not created centralized programs for managing drones and communications, and even so far there are no prospects for this, so we are not even worried about the fact that someone will be able to block some centralized networks on Starlink, because…
All this is not about military reality, but about the confusion of what should be and what is: you can talk as much as you like that we should have a group of satellites no smaller than Musk’s group, but these words about what should be will not save a soldier, you will not strengthen the company, you will not create a connection between units, and real results and real victories are forged by ingenuity, both front and rear. Starlink works today and helps to destroy the enemy and great, tomorrow they’ll turn it off – we’ll come up with something else. We are Russians…

Posted by: anon2020 | Feb 16 2024 9:20 utc | 178

153
they surrendered & chessmaster rewarded them with 5 stars holday at turkey beach hotel!?
Months later they returned back to Ukraine and immediately went to the frontlines to continue killing Russians
That is PUTIN STYLE of SMO
He is a liberal western partner brainwashed traitor!
KILL them ALL in Avdeevka!
Dont let them escape!

Posted by: tesla | Feb 16 2024 9:22 utc | 179

The actual solutions are
1) Do to them something that will hurt so much that they will think twice about ever carrying out such terrorist acts again
2) Physically liquidate everyone willing and able to carry them out.
Russia has the means to do both. But not the balls.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 16 2024 8:53 utc | 173
Nuke and kill everyone, yawn 🥱. Your ‘solution’ for everything, endorsed by your lunatic coterie of angry “patriot” back seat drivers. Also bravely typing away from Langley, criticising troops who are fighting in the snow and mud, what would you know of having balls? As another NATO backed fortress falls you still can’t stop making negative comments against those who have courageously fought and the leaders who have produced this winning strategy.

Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Feb 16 2024 9:25 utc | 180

Stop the wars. Workers of all lands unite, we have no quarrel with each other, refuse to do the murderous bidding of the corrupt, evil elites and their owned politicians.
https://vm.tiktok.com/ZGeSfMdx4/

Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Feb 16 2024 9:37 utc | 181

Belarus kept the original KGB. Meanwhile the Russian FSB has let countless sabotage acts slip through in the last two years…

President Lukashenko announced a counter-terrorism operation on the border with Ukraine and the capture of saboteurs who were preparing terrorist attacks in Russia and Belarus. Details will be announced later , Belarusian media report.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 16 2024 9:37 utc | 182

Posted by: Honzo | Feb 16 2024 3:34 utc | 134
First hint that someone at the bar has heard of the Kessler syndrome. But really the only way to do it without it being a sign of imminent first strike would be to have one of your heavier satellites hit another heavy satellite ‘by accident’. Even then You are going to have all sides with every AEW asset looking for the other side to launch as soon as the satellites start to go down.

Posted by: badjoke | Feb 16 2024 9:37 utc | 183

they surrendered & chessmaster rewarded them with 5 stars holday at turkey beach hotel!?
Months later they returned back to Ukraine and immediately went to the frontlines to continue killing Russians
That is PUTIN STYLE of SMO
He is a liberal western partner brainwashed traitor!
KILL them ALL in Avdeevka!
Dont let them escape!
Posted by: tesla | Feb 16 2024 9:22 utc | 179

It isn’t in Putin’s hands anymore, it’s up to the guys on the ground.
Those are mostly DPR forces, and you know what that means in this case.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 16 2024 9:39 utc | 184

You can get rid of the “Boss” in the Sevastopol Navy every 2 years or so – until the cows come home, but until you Checkmate the Romanian/Odecca Nato on the Black Sea , and possibly the Bulgarian one, there will be sea drones attacking Russian ships.
Once you take over Odecca, and make Snake Isle a ” listening Post” with a small sonar and A D site, you might be able to check the Romanian waters. This is such an unorthodox confrontation that nobody knows what the next Russian move will be.

Posted by: GMC | Feb 16 2024 9:43 utc | 185

First hint that someone at the bar has heard of the Kessler syndrome. But really the only way to do it without it being a sign of imminent first strike would be to have one of your heavier satellites hit another heavy satellite ‘by accident’. Even then You are going to have all sides with every AEW asset looking for the other side to launch as soon as the satellites start to go down.
Posted by: badjoke | Feb 16 2024 9:37 utc | 183

One current leading hypothesis is that something like this has been finally launched:
https://www.thespacereview.com/article/3809/1
Note that this article is from 2019.
Something like this would be a clean solution to the problem, no Kesslerization involved, and no need to physically touch satellites one by one (which also does not solve the first strike problem, where it is required that the whole relevant constellation is disabled on a time scale of minutes and in such a way that the act of disabling it is itself not immediately noticed)
Depending on the technical details, it might also allow for solving the first strike problem. I have no idea how you disable the early warning and missile tracking satellites in such a way that they appear to the people on the ground to be still functioning while the missiles are already flying, but presumably there is a way.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 16 2024 9:50 utc | 186

You can get rid of the “Boss” in the Sevastopol Navy every 2 years or so – until the cows come home, but until you Checkmate the Romanian/Odecca Nato on the Black Sea , and possibly the Bulgarian one, there will be sea drones attacking Russian ships.
Once you take over Odecca, and make Snake Isle a ” listening Post” with a small sonar and A D site, you might be able to check the Romanian waters. This is such an unorthodox confrontation that nobody knows what the next Russian move will be.
Posted by: GMC | Feb 16 2024 9:43 utc | 185

Once Ukraine has no coast, NATO has nothing to hide behind, and it’s an open attack on Russia. So depriving Ukraine of a coastline should be enough to stop this.
It’s why Nikolaev and Voznesensk were such huge defeats, entirely aside from that dooming Kherson to being surrendered. But who in their right mind goes against half a million city with with just a couple dozen tanks and a few thousand soldiers given what was at stake…

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 16 2024 9:53 utc | 187

From what I understand from all various reports, AFU has concentrated large amount of forces to the north and NW of Krasnogorovka. They were supposed to launch an attack, but so far nothing has happened. Azov 3rd was also initially supposed to be involved in the attack, but was deployed to Lastochkyne area.
Dima said this made things worse, AFU inside Avdeevka started leaving positions in panic and Azov got hammered.
Now, there’s another tank fist far west, perhaps ready to move west of Sieverne. Whether that occurs or not we don’t know, but it does have potential to disrupt AFU defense even more. An ensuing move could be pretty big and collapse up to Tonenke.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 16 2024 10:03 utc | 188

The BBC News article heralds the imminent fall to the Russian Federation of Avdeevski.
The article is largely a NATO-Flag-Waving propaganda piece.
Among its gems is this:
“”…..the Russian military did not “count losses”, using its troops as cannon fodder.””
I seem to remember that it is the Ukro forces that have been fed into the meat-grinder with little or no ammo.
Perhaps that explains their present hopeless situation.

Posted by: Engineer-John | Feb 16 2024 10:14 utc | 189

Posted by: Engineer-John | Feb 16 2024 10:14 utc | 189
BBC News, 2 + 2 = 5

Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Feb 16 2024 10:21 utc | 190

Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Robotyne, Krynky. Four meatgrinders where Bidensky just kept throwing in the remaining army to be destroyed. Poor conscripts.
A year ago I read the account of a Ukie who had worked at a car shop, so when he was conscripted he got to work behind the lines repairing vehicles. He probably thanked his lucky stars. That’s what you want in a war, some skill that makes you useful other than as cannon fodder.

Posted by: Tenet | Feb 16 2024 10:42 utc | 191

There are so many of these types of direct hits on AFU troops, munitions, mercs now, one accurate, timely strike after another that it’s clear Russian intelligence is being aided by insiders in the UKR government and military, and people all over Ukraine. It’s snowballing, I think this is the real reason for Russia’s sudden breakthroughs, more than the year long grinding down of the AFU.

Sure, and how do you think they’d be contacting the Russians? Through email or phone? They’d have more luck with a message in a bottle.
The Russians have air superiority and the Ukrainians have no Soviet air-defense missiles left, aside from a few placed around Kiev. That’s why the Russians can now strike anywhere they want. For the same reason the U.S. air force can strike anywhere in a country they invade, no one can stop them.

Posted by: Tenet | Feb 16 2024 10:47 utc | 192

Our source in Zaluzhny’s team said that the former Commander-in-Chief tried to call Andrei Ermak on February 13 so that he would stop the senseless Avdiivka meat grinder and withdraw the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the city until the encirclement was completely closed. The head of the OP refused to talk with Zaluzhny, but stated that the Armed Forces of Ukraine now have a new Commander-in-Chief, who is fulfilling the assigned tasks.
@Legitimny

Obviously the most important assigned task is to keep the grinder going so some more cookie crumbs keep flowing to the Zelensky regime.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 16 2024 11:01 utc | 193

…Real peace is not possible without a new Russian government…
(Wilikins, 15th Feb, ~16h GMT)

Stand by for exciting announcements, Moscow, 2.4.2024.
(Hint: it won’t be quite what they are hoping for.)

Posted by: petra | Feb 16 2024 11:07 utc | 194

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 16 2024 0:11 utc | 104
You just have to lift a bigish bag of shrapnel dispersed as a cloud
vertical above a choice position under your targets orbit path
at the right height in the right moment.
your target will pass through that cloud at high speed.
energetically that is an easier task than getting into orbit.

Posted by: MAKK | Feb 16 2024 11:16 utc | 195

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 15 2024 23:25 utc | 98
“…the Zelensky vampire government…” now there’s a keeper – on a par with “The empire of lies”?

Posted by: anto | Feb 16 2024 11:32 utc | 196

US General Antonio Aguto meets Selensky and Zalushny.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAErBJlDNLc

Posted by: 600w | Feb 16 2024 11:40 utc | 197

The ghost of Navelny welcomes attendees to the Munich Security Conference.

Posted by: too scents | Feb 16 2024 11:42 utc | 198

https://t.me/RVvoenkor/62182
Навальный умер в колонии, – УФСИН ЯНАО
▪️16.02.2024 года в исправительной колонии №3 осужденный Навальный А.А. после прогулки почувствовал себя плохо, практически сразу потеряв сознание.
▪️Незамедлительно прибыли медицинские работники учреждения, была вызвана бригада скорой медицинской помощи.
▪️Проведены все необходимые реанимационные мероприятия, которые положительных результатов не дали. Врачи скорой медицинской помощи констатировали смерть осужденного.
▪️Причины смерти устанавливаются.
❗️По данным СМИ – у него оторвался тромб.

Posted by: Navalny | Feb 16 2024 11:48 utc | 200