Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 15, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-050

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Avdeevka – Feb 5, 2024

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As an Ukrainian one would not want to be in Avdeevka right now and especially not in the former air defense base directly south of it.

Avdeevka – Feb 15, 2024

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Strana with news from the 3rd (Azov neo-nazi) brigade (machine translated):

In the 3rd assault brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they stated that there was not a single whole prepared position left in Avdiivka

At the time of the arrival of the 3rd assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Avdiivka , there was not a single whole prepared position left.

This was reported by an engineer of the 3rd OSHBR, whose words are quoted by the Ukrainian military telegram channel Deep State.

"In general, the situation is very similar to the Bakhmut defensive operation, when the infantry of the third assault group was forced to take up defense immediately from the march. And, as in the previous year, not a single position was prepared, because at the time of entry, those ramps that were held by subcontractors were already lost or destroyed," the engineer said.

Deep State considers the transfer of an assault unit to an operational environment to strengthen defensive actions "extremely strange."

And he notes that this decision was made before the change of the commander-in-chief, so you should not consider this rotation the idea of Syrsky.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Comments

Six people killed, 17 wounded in Ukrainian attack on Belgorod
MOSCOW, February 15. /TASS/. Six people were killed after Ukrainian troops attacked the city of Belgorod, and 17 more were injured, Alexey Kuznetsov, assistant to the Russian minister of health told journalists.
“Six people were killed, including a child, when the Ukrainian armed forces shelled a shopping center in Belgorod. Another 17, with four children among them, suffered wounds of varying severity,” he said.
Kuznetsov added that telehealth consultations with federal medical institutions of the health ministry have been organized. In addition, a team of specialists from federal centers has been sent to Belgorod upon instructions of Russian Health Minister Mikhail Murashko.
Ukrainian armed forces shelled civilian facilities in Belgorod on Thursday afternoon. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, air defense systems destroyed 14 RM-70 Vampire MLRS rockets over the territory of the borderline Belgorod Region.
https://tass.com/emergencies/1746987

Posted by: Apollyon | Feb 15 2024 14:57 utc | 1

https://t.me/fighter_bomber/15717

Nothing is clear about US UAVs, which are very successfully helping to reset our Black Sea Fleet, and are also doing other interesting things.
UAV is a UAV. This is a soulless piece of hardware that belongs to some country. For example, like the Nord Stream gas pipeline.
In all cases, damage to uninhabited railways, one way or another helping the country you are fighting against, either directly or indirectly, did not lead to any consequences. Well, except for expressing some protests and concerns, which nowadays no one really cares about.
Last year, the valiant naval aviation clearly and specifically showed that if you simply fly next to a drone, it will fall to the planet out of fright. Myself. Even without the use of weapons, although personally I don’t see any problem at all with using weapons to attack any unmanned aircraft of any kind in any environment, including space, if our citizens die as a result of their work.
Why we managed to persuade a single Reaper to fall, but cannot put it on stream, I don’t know. I don’t see any logic in our chaotic and inconsistent actions.
“GlobalHawk” differs from “Reaper” only in size. What should we be afraid of in conditions when all existing and all possible sanctions have already been imposed on us and measures of influence have already been applied, I don’t understand.
Yes, maybe with avaxes, refueling tankers, planes and ships with people on board, you need to act somehow more cunningly, but unmanned systems need to be brought down in batches .
I personally don’t see any obstacles. We have the strength and means. There is an opportunity.
If their work could be blocked by active or passive interference from land, sea or air, I think this would have been done a long time ago, and UAVs would not have flown there. But since they fly, it means they don’t have any problems in this regard.
This means we need to act more radically and long ago.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 15 2024 15:06 utc | 2

So … it’s obvious to all but the dimmest bulbs in the drawer that Avdeyevka is toast by March.
What next?

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 15 2024 15:54 utc | 3

According to Rezident_UA, the Azov 3rd brigade troops are forced to defend in the open field (due to lack of prepared positions), where they are easy prey for artillery and drones.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 15 2024 15:55 utc | 4

so according to the latest ramstein meeting:
* UK, Latvia, Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Ukraine will form
a “drone coalition” to “help” the ukraine build fpv drones
* 15 states will form a “air defense and missile” coalition to “help” the ukraine with
installations and munitions
interesting that the countries in the “drone coalition” are exactly those european countries that went into fearmongering that “russia is going to attack us in the next 5 years”.
its almost as if they WANT russia to attack them. selffullfilling prophecy.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Feb 15 2024 16:13 utc | 5

https://t.me/milinfolive/116386

It is reported that Admiral Viktor Sokolov has finally been removed from the post of commander of the Black Sea Fleet.
It seems that it has become impossible to ignore the latest heavy losses of the fleet, in the person of the missile boat Ivanovets and the large landing ship Caesar Kunikov, although these are far from the only “merits” of the admiral.
Sokolov held this position since August 14, 2022, replacing Admiral Igor Osipov, under whose strict leadership the Russian Black Sea Fleet lost its flagship GRKR “Moscow” and failed to control the northwestern waters of the Black Sea. Sokolov also achieved the loss of stable control even over its southern part.
We hope that the third candidate for this execution position in two years will finally be able to correct the mistakes of his predecessors and find a solution that will allow the Black Sea Fleet not only to hide in the bays from Ukrainian missiles and kamikaze boats, but also to once again exert a significant influence on the course of hostilities.
Military Informant

Posted by: anon2020 | Feb 15 2024 16:16 utc | 6

Posted by: Justpassinby | Feb 15 2024 16:13 utc | 17
Maybe the Russians should hurry up before these 15 states do more nonsense, the consequences of which they will never be able to justify to their people.

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Feb 15 2024 16:18 utc | 7

I think Zaluzny was removed so that Srisky would be scapegoated for the disaster Zaluzny created in Avdeevka. Zaluzny will be back after it’s wrapped up.

Posted by: Catdog | Feb 15 2024 16:24 utc | 8

Prediction: zelensky will be overthrown and hunted down like a dog by Azov battalions soon.
Zaluzhny will return to take over.
Will the West evacuate Zee? He is already out of the country on another weapons tour of Europe, I think.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 15 2024 16:26 utc | 9

Zenit is ours!
1st Slavic Brigade! Tiger

Posted by: SlowSoft | Feb 15 2024 16:28 utc | 10

Avdeevka — “How retreat from Avdeevka and soon some other places looks like” spoiler: it’s really muddy, like quagmire quicksand almost muddy
Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Feb 15 2024 15:18 utc | 7
Probably too late to retreat from Avdeevka, or to reinforce.
As a matter of curiosity I have been following the day by day combat. It appears that daily gains by Russia have increased. As the Russian effort is apparently the same, the Ukraine army has reduced effectiveness. This coincides well with Zelenskyy bringing in that unpopular general, Syrskyi. As he hasn’t had time to do anything, bringing him in has apparently reduced the army’s willingness to fight. Moral, as they like to say, is down. Perhaps the remarkable ability of the Ukrainian army to hold together is breaking down.

Posted by: Jmaas | Feb 15 2024 16:29 utc | 11

If their work could be blocked by active or passive interference from land, sea or air, I think this would have been done a long time ago, and UAVs would not have flown there. But since they fly, it means they don’t have any problems in this regard.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 15 2024 15:06 utc | 5

What was a landing ship doing out in the middle of the Black Sea when the Russians know that Ukraine is using naval drones guided by US global hawks? It’s not exactly the sort of vessel you’d choose as a picket to defend the fleet is it … you’d think they’d keep it safely in port and let the ships with advanced radar and sonar do picket duty yet there she was a big, fat, undefended target for the Ukrainians to hit.
It’s almost like the Russians were using it as bait. it is after all an old landing craft operating at a time when ISR see everything making it’s intended purpose nearly impossible. It’s not like this ship was vital to the Russian blockade of Ukrainian ports … submarines and onyx missiles take care of that and you can’t launch land attack cruise missiles from it.
This begs the question are the Russians really that careless or was it there for a reason?
Perhaps it was there to get a clear elint picture of the US kill chain by monitoring communications between the Global hawk and the drone as well as the naval drones own comm link to it’s operator. Even if the Russians do come up with a countermeasure against these aircraft will they use it against Ukraine or save it for the big war with NATO and deal with British / Ukrainian naval drones by destroying them on land. If I was Russian I’d keep it under my hat.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Feb 15 2024 16:33 utc | 12

at the end it does not matter who is the leader of the ukraine. the idea of a government in exile, stationed in the uk, doesnt look like a pipedream.
it is clear as day that the “west” is hellbent on hurting anything russian, and even ukrainian to that extend. seeing them make those “coalitions”, especially that drone one, is going to end in an unhealthy amount of dead civilians.
eu mentioned that they will not renew the contracts regarding gas transit trough the ukraine.
they are severing any economic ties to russia, and in the 13th sanctions package even threatening secondary sanctions on china and india. now hungary blocked the current version, but we all know that the eu will simply push and cheat to get that package out.
they clearly dont care anymore about harming their own economies completely, just to spite anything russian.
this whole thing is going to escalate completely, and the us and uk will sit back from afar and reap the rewards at the end once again.
stupid unelected eu autokrats.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Feb 15 2024 16:35 utc | 13

Real peace is not possible without a new Russian government.
https://fpif.org/post-sanctions-russia/
Posted by: Wilikins | Feb 15 2024 16:08 utc | 15
======================================================================
A new Russian government (regime change) is exactly what USA/NATO is trying to achieve.
I’m sure that CIA and Soros have secretive figures waiting in the wings for the moment to make their move.
The present government of the Russian Federation is doing a sound job.
It would be good to imagine that we could have such politicians in the UK, instead of the quisling clowns that we have here.

Posted by: Engineer-John | Feb 15 2024 16:38 utc | 14

Posted by: Justpassinby | Feb 15 2024 16:35 utc | 28
The best way for the peoples of Europe to learn Heinrich Kissinger: To be an enemy of america can be dangerous but to be a friend is fatal.

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Feb 15 2024 16:40 utc | 15

Old DPA, who seems to be losing some hair as compared to how he appeared at the start of the SMO nearly 2 years ago, was mentioning recently about how Wagner’s tactic of always leaving a path open for the enemy to withdraw through now seems to have been discarded. Now the tactic seems to be complete encirclement and annihilation
of the enemy, in other words Stalin style. If this is true then Russia is now meaning to fight properly.

Posted by: gT | Feb 15 2024 16:49 utc | 16

Our fighters hoisted the Russian flag near the Avdiivka Stele, where Zelensky took a photo a month ago
The advanced units of the Russian army planted our flag during the advance in the city, marking their new successes during the assault on the city
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/62126

Posted by: Avdiivka | Feb 15 2024 16:52 utc | 17

The West does not want to destroy Russia, but to do what it should have done 30 years ago: integrate Russia into the industrialized world. . .
A cooperative relationship between a new progressive Russia and the industrialized world would dramatically transform the international situation. It could be a highly visible example of democratic development, strongly undercutting China’s promotion of autocracy and minimizing cyber intrusions. . .
Rather than promote a new Cold War, now is the time to definitively end the last one. Real peace is not possible without a new Russian government.
https://fpif.org/post-sanctions-russia/
Posted by: Wilikins | Feb 15 2024 16:08 utc | 15

Ah yes, first Russia, then China will be ‘integrated’ into the industrialized world. Utopian paradise awaits.

Posted by: Mike R | Feb 15 2024 16:55 utc | 18

Continuing from previous thread:

NATO needs to put an end to Vladolph Pitler once and for all.
Posted by: Tichy | Feb 15 2024 0:21 utc | 117

I am finally awarded by my first troll impersonation! Do I get a medal?

* UK, Latvia, Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Ukraine will form
a “drone coalition” to “help” the ukraine build fpv drones
Posted by: Justpassinby | Feb 15 2024 16:13 utc | 17
Huh! As a Swede, do I get to vote on that? Oh wait, we weren’t even allowed to vote with regards to our NATO membership…

Posted by: Tichy | Feb 15 2024 17:03 utc | 19

The 1st Slavyansk Brigade raised the Russian flag over the main fortress of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the south of Avdiivka – the fortified area “Zenit”!
▪️In the south of Avdiivka, our fighters completed the encirclement and capture of the most powerful fortified area “Zenith” with flank maneuvers!
▪️The most important defense node fell – an air defense base in the southwest near Avdiivka, turned by the Armed Forces of Ukraine into a real fortress with underground fortifications filled with a thickness of concrete.
▪️This fortified area could have hampered our offensive, wedged into Russian positions and prevented the assault on Avdiivka from this direction.
▪️And so, in the course of a competent operation, the fighters of the 1st Slavyansk knocked out the enemy, taking this fortress of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/62129

Posted by: Avdiivka | Feb 15 2024 17:17 utc | 20

TG channels describe that a collapse of the magnitude of ‘unmitigated disaster’ going on in Avdeevka.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 15 2024 17:19 utc | 21

Pepe Escobar reveals what he saw in the Donbass
“I had to go to the black soil of Novorossiya to watch where the rules-based international order came to die,”

https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses/47518
Russia’s Fight Against Globalism (pt. 1/2)

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 15 2024 18:19 utc | 22

@all – I deleted off-topic comments and the thread has now shrunken from 65 comments to 22.
b.

Posted by: b | Feb 15 2024 18:57 utc | 23

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Feb 15 2024 15:18 utc | 7
###################
When it comes to Trump, one must always remember that he likes using other people’s money much more than his own. One of the biggest expenses for a Presidential campaign is advertising, Trump circumvents those costs by saying controversial things that play with his base for the free outrage attention from the media.
In 2023, no one should be taking Trump literally OR seriously. The man talks a lot, and very little comes of it. In that regard, he is the perfect US President. An arrogant blowhard with no real strategy or purpose beyond materialism and status. It was always inevitable that America would one day have a carnival barker as President.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 15 2024 18:57 utc | 24

Attacks on civilian areas are rarely done for “fun” or “vengeance”.
They are usually done to entice their enemies to attack the position from which the attacks were launched.

Posted by: UWDude | Feb 15 2024 19:05 utc | 25

so according to the latest ramstein meeting:
* UK, Latvia, Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Ukraine will form
a “drone coalition” to “help” the ukraine build fpv drones
* 15 states will form a “air defense and missile” coalition to “help” the ukraine with
installations and munitions
interesting that the countries in the “drone coalition” are exactly those european countries that went into fearmongering that “russia is going to attack us in the next 5 years”.
its almost as if they WANT russia to attack them. selffullfilling prophecy.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Feb 15 2024 16:13 utc | 5
No, they simply are convinced that they can waltz past as many red lines as they wish and Russia never will respond.
I keep hearing how Russia has “escalation dominance” but it is ever always only the West that escalates.

Posted by: Feral Finster | Feb 15 2024 19:09 utc | 26

..
Last year, the valiant naval aviation clearly and specifically showed that if you simply fly next to a drone, it will fall to the planet out of fright. ..
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 15 2024 15:06 utc | 5
As the post is something relayed by sb I doubt it has much import. But my response to the above snippet is to point out that a “golden shower” caused the crash.

Posted by: Ново З | Feb 15 2024 19:20 utc | 27

When it comes to Trump, one must always remember that he likes using other people’s money much more than his own. One of the biggest expenses for a Presidential campaign is advertising, Trump circumvents those costs by saying controversial things that play with his base for the free outrage attention from the media.
In 2023, no one should be taking Trump literally OR seriously. The man talks a lot, and very little comes of it. In that regard, he is the perfect US President. An arrogant blowhard with no real strategy or purpose beyond materialism and status. It was always inevitable that America would one day have a carnival barker as President.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 15 2024 18:57 utc | 24
If we learned nothing else from 2016-2020, we should have learned that Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
Witness his two failed attempts to pull out of Syria, and both times, he folded like a pathetic little bitch.

Posted by: Feral Finster | Feb 15 2024 19:24 utc | 28

“redline” is a neocon talking point trotted out vs Obama. It was facile, because Americans cared little about Obama letting red lines being crossed, but it made the neocons frothing mad.
Now they (neocons) think it will be effective vs. Putin and Russia, and trot it out in their regime change talking points.
It won’t be effective.
It is like the azov caught in Mariupol, and the mercenaries. Two-bit commentators were talking like they would all get the death penalty.
Is this a war, or a hollywood movie?
In wars, you trade PoWs of high value for other PoWs of high value, anybody who thought that all mercs and azov would get hung know nothing about how wars are conducted.

Posted by: UWDude | Feb 15 2024 19:26 utc | 29

https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/30091

🇧🇾 According to available data, the Commander of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy, Admiral Viktor Nikolaevich Sokolov, has been removed from his post.
….
The new successor is already known. I didn’t have time to read the channels today and didn’t see whether the last name was mentioned or not, so I’ll just say that not everyone is delighted with the new one either.

The character of these senior commanders can’t be a sudden surprise to their subordinates, peers or superiors. Treason masquerading as incompetence wouldn’t look any different. A round of sinecures for all concerned, or perhaps early retirement on full benefits?

Posted by: anon2020 | Feb 15 2024 19:28 utc | 30

In wars, you trade PoWs of high value for other PoWs of high value…
Posted by: UWDude | Feb 15 2024 19:26 utc | 29

Unless you’re a Ukrainian POW. Since you were not machine-gunned down from behind as you surrendered to the Russians you were executed in the plane that was headed home.

Posted by: Bye-bye Avdeevka | Feb 15 2024 19:33 utc | 31

Treason masquerading as incompetence wouldn’t look any different.
Posted by: anon2020 | Feb 15 2024 19:28 utc | 30
And to a layman, an incredibly complex defense vs a new drone technology wouldn’t look any different to incompetence.
Treason, however, even to a layman, would be a ridiculous notion, as the losses are not that steep.

Posted by: UWDude | Feb 15 2024 19:34 utc | 32

Ukranian History Global Initiative
The west has brougth their “brigthest” journalists and historians together to rewrite ukranian history and narratives.
Snyder, Hariri, Appelbaum, Bildt and the rest of the russiaphobe neocon establishment. The ukrainians are going to be even more indoctrinated, think IDF soldiers.
The west are never going to stop.
https://uhgi.org/

Posted by: Paul from Norway | Feb 15 2024 19:37 utc | 33

ZH has a posting up with the title
Putin Trolls Blinken; Tucker Trolls New York
The Putin trolls Blinken part

The other big Moscow-related news this week was Russian President Vladimir Putin’s interview with state media. The biggest headline, of course, from that interview was Putin saying he would rather see Biden than Trump win this year’s election (of course, that’s exactly what Putin would say if he actually preferred Trump). But there was another interesting nugget from that interview. Putin mentioned that he and Tucker Carlson continued speaking for a bit after the cameras were turned off, and one thing Putin mentioned to Tucker was how U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has spoken about his ancestor fleeing anti-Jewish pogroms in Russia multiple times. Putin made a couple of points about that: first, that Blinken bringing up these events from 120 years ago is a way of denigrating Russia, but also, Blinken is implicitly admitting that the Ukraine didn’t exist as a nation then:

We have it all in our archives. Blinken’s great-grandfather really left the Russian Empire. He was born in Poltava province [which is in present-day Ukraine; see map below], and lived later in and left Kiev for the United States. The question arises: Mr. Blinken believe this is ancestral Russian territory, Kiev and the surrounding area, first. Second, he says his father left [anti-] Jewish pogroms in Russia… he believes there was no Ukraine in 1904.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 15 2024 19:45 utc | 34

I keep hearing how Russia has “escalation dominance” but it is ever always only the West that escalates.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Feb 15 2024 19:09 utc | 26

So many dishonest analysts. ‘Escalation dominance’ doesn’t mean the jackass ratcheting up the ladder. It means as the ladder climbs one party in one locale or region has considerably more leeway, more assets, and more ability to bring them to bear.
Only the most insipid even at this bar would be unable to detect the obvious machinations of the Mawrican strategic braintrust to provoke Russia into attacking NATO. That way Latvia and the Baltics do all the dying and America laughs to the bank. Russia isn’t playing that game. They’re playing the get fucked and enjoy bankruptcyboa constrictor strategy.
Can Maerica and the West get its dick out of the steeljawed beartrap called Ukraine? I doubt it, because the leadership are fucking idiots. Raised on exceptionalism means failing forward throughout life and learning nothing. Reflects in the leadership.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Feb 15 2024 19:45 utc | 35

No, they simply are convinced that they can waltz past as many red lines as they wish and Russia never will respond.
I keep hearing how Russia has “escalation dominance” but it is ever always only the West that escalates.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Feb 15 2024 19:09 utc | 26

Hear, hear.
I’ve always appreciated your pithy if cynical comments Feral. While ignoring the trolls I read you and several others; milites for example. I am a longtime lurker who finally cracked yesterday when Russia lost another ship. It looks like Sokolov has paid the price for the Black Sea disasters, although I’m not sure a leadership change will make any difference in that theater. They better figure something out.
Today I’m here to read about the collapse of Avdeevka and refrain from writing criticisms.

Posted by: Bye-bye Avdeevka | Feb 15 2024 19:47 utc | 36

Putin Trolls Blinken; Tucker Trolls New York
The Putin trolls Blinken part
The other big Moscow-related news this week was Russian President Vladimir Putin’s interview with state media. The biggest headline, of course, from that interview was Putin saying he would rather see Biden than Trump win this year’s election (of course, that’s exactly what Putin would say if he actually preferred Trump). But there was another interesting nugget from that interview. Putin mentioned that he and Tucker Carlson continued speaking for a bit after the cameras were turned off, and one thing Putin mentioned to Tucker was how U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has spoken about his ancestor fleeing anti-Jewish pogroms in Russia multiple times. Putin made a couple of points about that: first, that Blinken bringing up these events from 120 years ago is a way of denigrating Russia, but also, Blinken is implicitly admitting that the Ukraine didn’t exist as a nation then:
We have it all in our archives. Blinken’s great-grandfather really left the Russian Empire. He was born in Poltava province [which is in present-day Ukraine; see map below], and lived later in and left Kiev for the United States. The question arises: Mr. Blinken believe this is ancestral Russian territory, Kiev and the surrounding area, first. Second, he says his father left [anti-] Jewish pogroms in Russia… he believes there was no Ukraine in 1904.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 15 2024 19:45 utc | 34
Simple, as far as the Empire and its servants go, anything bad that ever happened in what is now Ukraine is the continuing fault of Russians. Anything good is the credit of Ukrainians.
This is why we hear it said that “Ukraine” liberated Auschwitz, when it was Ukrainians that were the guards there.

Posted by: Feral Finster | Feb 15 2024 19:48 utc | 37

* UK, Latvia, Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Ukraine will form
a “drone coalition” to “help” the ukraine build fpv drones
* 15 states will form a “air defense and missile” coalition to “help” the ukraine with
installations and munitions
interesting that the countries in the “drone coalition” are exactly those european countries that went into fearmongering that “russia is going to attack us in the next 5 years”.
its almost as if they WANT russia to attack them. selffullfilling prophecy.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Feb 15 2024 16:13 utc | 5
I guess Norway will partizipate to: From the National Broadcaster today
The empire strikes back- presenting DragonFire- a system that can hit a pound coin from a kilometers distance, at a price of a beer
Free to use, only electicity is needed.
https://www.nrk.no/norge/imperiet-slar-tilbake-1.16734137

Posted by: Paul from Norway | Feb 15 2024 19:49 utc | 38

Posted by: Bye-bye Avdeevka | Feb 15 2024 19:47 utc | 36
Nobody believes your “long time lurker” story, so why waste space trying to sell it here?

Posted by: UWDude | Feb 15 2024 19:59 utc | 39

UWDude @ 29

In wars, you trade PoWs of high value for other PoWs of high value, anybody who thought that all mercs and azov would get hung know nothing about how wars are conducted.

Russia hung a lot of captured Nazis in Red Sq. at the end of WW2, there’s still time.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 15 2024 19:59 utc | 40

Can Maerica and the West get its dick out of the steeljawed beartrap called Ukraine? I doubt it, because the leadership are fucking idiots. Raised on exceptionalism means failing forward throughout life and learning nothing. Reflects in the leadership.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Feb 15 2024 19:45 utc | 35

Russia is the one that stepped into a trap.
Predictions of US bankruptcy never end. They’ve been around since before the Soviet Union collapsed.

Posted by: Bye-bye Avdeevka | Feb 15 2024 20:08 utc | 41

LightYearsFromHome @40
Hanged, not hung.
Also, no capital punishment in Russian constitution, so don’t hold your breath.

Posted by: AJ | Feb 15 2024 20:14 utc | 42

Russia is the one that stepped into a trap.
Predictions of US bankruptcy never end. They’ve been around since before the Soviet Union collapsed.
Posted by: Bye-bye Avdeevka | Feb 15 2024 20:08 utc | 41

Oh goody, a true believer!
You sound a bit defensive. Are you trying to convince yourself or us?
Hear that ticking? It’s the 32 trillion dollar bomb on your economy. ‘Winning’ in Maerica looks like crushing defeat anywhere else.
Quick maybe desperately change your name to something else you think is clever and provoking, haha. Denial ain’t a river in Egypt.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Feb 15 2024 20:22 utc | 43

Ново З | Feb 15 2024 19:20 utc | 27

As the post is something relayed by sb I doubt it has much import.

The post is from the ‘fighterbomber’ tg channel that according to bloggers like simplicius has close ties with the VKS. I guess it might fall to naval aviation to splash the Global Hawks, but it shows how opinions are evolving on the topic.

Posted by: S.P. Korolev | Feb 15 2024 20:24 utc | 44

Justpassinby | Feb 15 2024 16:35 utc | 13

stupid unelected eu autokrats.

It is not just the unelected eu autokrats. It is also the governments of EU countries, with the exception of Hungary, which are disregarding the interests of their electorates. Is it stupidity or are they and the EU bureaucrats acting in the interests of the US?

Posted by: cirsium | Feb 15 2024 20:28 utc | 45

And to a layman, an incredibly complex defense vs a new drone technology wouldn’t look any different to incompetence.
Treason, however, even to a layman, would be a ridiculous notion, as the losses are not that steep.
Posted by: UWDude | Feb 15 2024 19:34 utc | 32

I’ve tried to follow these naval drone attacks to see how the technology is developing. BSF ships are being taken out almost on demand by surface drones that, more often than not, should be spotted and intercepted with readily available night optics and small arms. Ukraine and its sponsors haven’t even had to bother developing and deploying submersible attack platforms. What is it you think is being developed and refined in the response to these Startlink surface drone attacks?
Ivanovets’ crew seem to have spotted the incoming drones and fired upon them but failed to score decisive hits. Caesar Kunikov seems to have been approached by slower drones that went unnoticed due to reduced audio signature. Drone boats took out two landing craft in harbour on the 10th November, Ukrainian footage seems to leave no doubt that the drones approached the ships unchallenged; no search lights, no small arms or machine gun fire, no attempted FPV drone intercepts, nothing,
If it’s a matter of the layperson vs the professional (which often denotes nothing more than a careerist), you’ll humour us all with an explanation of why the BSF is now on its third SMO commander.
We have such people in what passes for British culture. They are referred to by various terms, chinless wonders, hoorays, etc, but, outside of their fellow travellers, they are properly regarded with contempt.

Posted by: anon2020 | Feb 15 2024 20:31 utc | 46

One obvious idiocy for example is Maerica and her yapping idiot dog vassals are exposing their hands, giving Russia ample time to develop and field test countermeasures. You would think since materially their collective economies produce roughly one tenth at best of the war materiel Russia does, they would slow their roll and try to catch up..
I suspect the ‘drunken idiot spends all his money while getting punched in the face repeatedly’ strategy we are seeing is due to the fact the bean counters have projected the West simply can’t catch up. Hence the desperation, the provocations, the generalized insanity and denial of realities staring in the face.
I read 4 breathless articles from one publication about the sinking of that old landing ship. The West is in terminal decline with only their own befuddled populations mesmerized by their bullshit anymore.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Feb 15 2024 20:33 utc | 47

Even today, the obsession with obsolete shit continues. The Black Sea fleet is not a cornerstone of Russian power, nor would I argue is it even very significant to the coming decades based on technological changes. Tell me what your plans is to ‘project power’ in the Arctic, dipshits?
Technological changes also mean, as unimperator described well, a vastly diminished role for surface fleets generally.
The fucking idjits in the braintrust are like Quixote charging windmills. They have a child’s understanding of strategy. No wonder Putin has danced circles around them. If not for their overwhelming wealth and power they would have long since entirely lost.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Feb 15 2024 20:38 utc | 48

you’ll humour us all with an explanation of why the BSF is now on its third SMO commander.
Posted by: anon2020 | Feb 15 2024 20:31 utc | 46
You tried to indicate it was not incompetence but treason.
“Incompetence” is a strong word itself.
It’s like in pro-sports, nobody is actually “incompetent”, they are bested.
I do not know if a new commander is the answer, we shall have to wait and see how he performs. If the outcome is worse, perhaps it was a bad move, or perhaps NATO is getting better and better, and Russia may have to shift strategically, which is what these ship sinkings are about.
However, i am not going to throw around “treason”, as I am not here to spread FUD.

Posted by: UWDude | Feb 15 2024 20:45 utc | 49

Denial ain’t a river in Egypt.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Feb 15 2024 20:22 utc | 43

Very clever.
I believe in Russia’s right to defend itself from western aggression which is what it is doing.
But…
In its zeal for global domination I believe the US baited Russia all along. Russia finally had to step in and triggered the trap. Which one of them is more prepared to finish the other one off is still being decided. I believe Russia is more handicapped and has the tougher fight.

Posted by: Bye-bye Adveevka | Feb 15 2024 20:45 utc | 50

Interesting development on “fighterbomber” calling for the downing of the UAVs, especially with the retirement of the admiral in charge of the Black Sea fleet.
As the situation develops internally and the slow bleed of the Black Sea fleet by NATO continues at some point Putin will have to make the political decision to down the UAVs, or risk slow destruction/bleeding if he us unwilling to engage.
As “fighterbombmer” pointed out these platforms are being used to guide weapons to target that are killing Russian service members/assets, whether they are in international waters is an academic point, this decision is a political decision.

Posted by: silverdog | Feb 15 2024 20:45 utc | 51

Posted by: silverdog | Feb 15 2024 20:45 utc | 51
If Russia were to do so, it might as well go all out. It would be a shame to only shoot down one drone. And there are still AWACs and manned flights, not to mention satellites.
So shooting down a drone or two risks strategic escalation for very little tactical value.

Posted by: UWDude | Feb 15 2024 20:50 utc | 52

Russia must target Ukraine’s transportation systems, bridges, railway lines and fuel depots. That’s the only way to disable drone attacks and missile attacks.
An attempted takeover of Kyiv must be made. This will lead to most Ukies abandon their positions and rush north to defend the capital city. That gives Russia the ability to annihilate Ukie troops and advance on other fronts.

Posted by: Jason | Feb 15 2024 20:57 utc | 53

In other words, NATO hopes to use terrorism and sporadic Black Sea attacks to try to get their dick out of the trap, or better yet to go all in where by the same calculus that brought you this fiasco they think they will gain an edge? It’s madness.
Of course Russia is slowing this process causing more dick bleeding. Hence the desperation for a Russian escalation and the increasing atrocities. It’s not rocket science. NATO fucked up, while Maerica snickers as it’s vassals potential is wasted in Quixotic attempts to ‘impose costs on Russia’ whatever the fuck that means.
Next in line are Latvia and the Baltics, lambs to be pushed into the slaughter by Uncle Sam. Now if I can divine this obvious and dumb intention which is essentially a way to free Maericas dick from the trap, imagine what people with real information know.
Russia is just holding the trap closed to further the bleeding. If only NATO didn’t stick its dick in, thinking it was nice fresh pussy. Why are the same idiots who thought a bear trap was pussy still in charge?
Because fucking stupid is why.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Feb 15 2024 20:57 utc | 54

UWDude | Feb 15 2024 20:50 utc | 52

So shooting down a drone or two risks strategic escalation for very little tactical value.

I think if a decision is made to strike NATO drones it will be done as part of a larger operation to take advantage of temporarily degraded NATO ISR, perhaps after the collapse of one of the fronts. At least that would have been the plan, if the new BSF commander cannot stabilize the situation it may happen sooner.

Posted by: S.P. Korolev | Feb 15 2024 20:57 utc | 55

Doctor Eleven @ 48
The Black Sea fleet has modern missile frigates and subs, not to mention a fair amount of skilled crew. The Black Sea ports are the home base and right now it is bottled up with the Bosporus closed to them but the fleet projected RF power in the Mediterranean and was how the forces in Syria were supplied. The fleet is a strategic asset to Russia. But, yes they are ducks in a pond, not sure where it all goes from here.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 15 2024 21:03 utc | 56

In other words, NATO hopes to use terrorism and sporadic Black Sea attacks to try to get their dick out of the trap…
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Feb 15 2024 20:57 utc | 54

Those tactics are more US bait to trigger more traps. By being very selective in how it responds to the bait Russia is being smart but it’s frustrating to watch and it is why Russia seems to always be on its back foot.
By the way the US using/condoning terror tactics is the epitome of hypocrisy and evil.

Posted by: Bye-bye Adveevka | Feb 15 2024 21:07 utc | 57

So shooting down a drone or two risks strategic escalation for very little tactical value.
Posted by: UWDude | Feb 15 2024 20:50 utc | 52
No doubt this is a large part of the calculation by Putin and hence why we have not seen it done yet. However, Putin is not operating in a vacuum, these UAVs are feeding targeting data that is causing Russian loss of life, it’s not just old ships sinking as many like to portray, these ships are crewed. This is a complicated situation and frankly even within Russia this is complex as Russia claims it has no outside ambitions beyond Russia but yet is in Syria and the Black Sea is strategically crucial.
These strikes do affect Russian military morale and in the long term, Russia will have to create a credible deterrent against the feeding of weapon systems that can cause major damage.

Posted by: silverdog | Feb 15 2024 21:10 utc | 58

Posted by: b | Feb 15 2024 18:57 utc | 23
Congratulations and thanks a lot!

Posted by: Naive | Feb 15 2024 21:12 utc | 59

Russia must target Ukraine’s transportation systems, bridges, railway lines and fuel depots. That’s the only way to disable drone attacks and missile attacks.
An attempted takeover of Kyiv must be made. This will lead to most Ukies abandon their positions and rush north to defend the capital city. That gives Russia the ability to annihilate Ukie troops and advance on other fronts.
Posted by: Jason | Feb 15 2024 20:57 utc | 53
No shit. This should have been done a long time ago, rather than give Ukraine’s western sponsors plenty of time to supply arms and western leaders to swan in and out of Kiev for photo-ops, sirens blazing.

Posted by: Feral Finster | Feb 15 2024 21:13 utc | 60

“‘Escalation dominance’ doesn’t mean the jackass ratcheting up the ladder. It means as the ladder climbs one party in one locale or region has considerably more leeway, more assets, and more ability to bring them to bear.”
Even taking that as given, it is still ever always only the West that escalates, while Russia is loathe to use this “leeway, assets and ability to bring them to bear”.
The West does not have this squeamishness, and it utterly indifferent to the suffering of Ukrainians, to boot.

Posted by: Feral Finster | Feb 15 2024 21:16 utc | 61

According to Dima, there are 4.5k AFU troops in the chemical/metallurgical complex and 3.5k troops in central Avdeevka (who are the ones in the cauldron).
Azov 3rd brigade was deployed to defend the road west of Avdeevka, but they were pretty much obliterated in unprepared positions and then refused to follow orders. 3.5k troops are 233 groups of 15 soldiers, if you count 5 – 30 min intervals, you can get that the evacuation time would be anywhere between 19 hours to 116 hours.
Retreat too fast, and positions get overrun quicker than anticipated, leading to the retreating group getting into risk.
Retreat too slow, more troops will be ground down anyway and cause larger total losses.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 15 2024 21:18 utc | 62

Posted by: Feral Finster | Feb 15 2024 21:16 utc | 61
In reality, the west isn’t really ‘escalating’. The ‘escalations’ seem to be merely spasms of a braindead body.
So what can they do? They can launch a sea drone from Romania or Odessa randomly. They launch rockets into Belgorod or other towns. Those are basically the only things they can do.
They cannot escalate in anyway that would bring victory on battlefield.
What is your suggestion? Everyone knows
option 1: launch nuke into Lwow, Rammstein and London. Obliterate British isles with a hypersonic Zircon salvo with special warheads.
Option 2: obliterate civilians in Kiev, deliberately. Oh boy, wouldn’t they love that. Russia won’t do that, but most likely Nato will do that and blame Russia anyway.
Option 3: shoot down drones. Shooting down one drone over the Black Sea is stupid, if you’re going to do that, considering Nato would use it to escalate anyway, then it makes sense to just go full bore with option 1. Also, this option 3 will simply remove the potential to Russia use recon drones off the coast of Romania, and Sweden in ‘intl airspace in the future.
So what is your preferred escalation?

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 15 2024 21:25 utc | 63

These strikes do affect Russian military morale and in the long term, Russia will have to create a credible deterrent against the feeding of weapon systems that can cause major damage.
Posted by: silverdog | Feb 15 2024 21:10 utc | 58
Or what? Russia will lose the war? You sure? Can Russia afford to lose four more ships in the next to years?
And though your statements have truth in them, (how much is debatable, as in how bad losing an empty troop carrier affects morale vs the sudden seizure of Avdeevka), they do not address one critical point:
Would shooting down a couple of drones even be effective?
Imagine, Russia shoots down two drones. Russo-hawks rejoice. America issues strongly worded statements, but no actual retaliation, Russo-hawks sings choruses of “I told you So!”
Then, three months later, another Russian ship is sunk.
Now what? Was the risk of strategic escalation worth it?
Do we not witness now the comic attempts to stop Ansar Allah in the red sea? Talk about hurt morale… …the attacks on ships have not slowed at all.
This in neither the worst or best case scenario, but one of many possible scenarios.

Posted by: UWDude | Feb 15 2024 21:25 utc | 64

63
As long as u dont try you will not know!
If Nato is anyway only waiting & hoping that Russia would escalate well then Lets try all 3 Options
The USA and their jewish nazi oligarchs would lose everything really everything
Russia as a big fuel station without dollar printing machine has nothing to lose

Posted by: SlowSoft | Feb 15 2024 21:47 utc | 65

unimperator:
I said no such thing. Quit arguing with strawmen.

Posted by: Feral Finster | Feb 15 2024 21:50 utc | 66

Would shooting down a couple of drones even be effective?
Imagine, Russia shoots down two drones. Russo-hawks rejoice. America issues strongly worded statements, but no actual retaliation, Russo-hawks sings choruses of “I told you So!”
Then, three months later, another Russian ship is sunk.
Now what? Was the risk of strategic escalation worth it?

Posted by: UWDude | Feb 15 2024 21:25 utc | 64
If Russia were to shoot down drones, it would not be an escalation.
Of course there should be a military reason for it. If this is given (e.g. signal guidance for Ukrainian drones), drones can be neutralised free of moral concerns.
Using them to support Ukraine is already an escalation.
Damage can therefore be prevented here.
Russia cannot prevent actions by the USA through “consideration” – the blackmail principle.
Russia must assume that Ukraine has received drones that are indistinguishable from US drones. And then without a transponder?
What are the friends of peace supposed to think?
Drones also pose a threat to shipping as they can fall down.

Much more bizarre is that both sides use Starlink. Will that help the Russians?
Supposedly the user can’t tell friend from foe near the front.
But the terminals will be clearly identifiable, MAC?
And the AFU knows its own, doesn’t it?

Posted by: 600w | Feb 15 2024 21:55 utc | 67

Posted by: UWDude | Feb 15 2024 20:45 utc | 49
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Feb 15 2024 20:38 utc | 48
Some of the ongoing oversights are so fundamental as to stretch a good faith definition of incompetence, treason masquerading as incompetence wouldn’t look any different, the vessels were not all obsolete (none were useless, many were crewed) and the losses are incremental.
It should be no surprise that the scope for military-bureaucratic reform is inversely proportional to rank. You guys are defending the privileges and pretensions of a minority faction that hasn’t the strength of character to find a diplomatic way for their lack of competence to not cost others their lives during a major armed conflict and you are doing so over the interests of those who have to stand on deck, at night, trying to spot attack drones with the naked eye and hit them with small arms fire.
It’s a shame that naval discipline is such that the lower ranks can’t get away with receiving and using sensor and weapon package put together by volunteers groups because that’s been a lifesaver for infantrymen.

Posted by: anon2020 | Feb 15 2024 21:56 utc | 68

SS is talking about throwing a hail mary (american football term for risky, long pass into end zone, usually during last couple of plays of the game, to try to win) when Russia is clearly winning the game.
He then says “we have nothing to lose”, as he advocates full scale nuclear launches….
..and this is the level of logic and analysis of all his posts.
Its not like foils are useless though, as he cooks up the same tripe as the other one dimensional mine field chargers, just more succinctly and abruptly, with less adjectives and garnish.

Posted by: UWDude | Feb 15 2024 21:57 utc | 69

Avdiivka fortress crumbles as Russia plants its flag
Russia’s 1st Slavic Brigade has today proudly raised the Russian flag high above the main fortress of the AFU in the south of Avdiivka, the Zenith fortified area. The Ukrainian defence in the south has suffered a significant setback. This air defence base in the southwest near Avdiivka had been transformed by the AFU into an impressive fortress, complete with sturdy underground concrete fortifications. This formidable stronghold effectively hindered the Russian offensive in Avdiivka from the southern direction. Today the fortresss crumbled under pressure.

Posted by: HERMIUS | Feb 15 2024 22:04 utc | 70

You guys are defending the privileges and pretensions of a minority faction that hasn’t the strength of character to find a diplomatic way for their lack of competence…
Posted by: anon2020 | Feb 15 2024 21:56 utc | 68
Yes, yes, yes, stand on the coffins floating at sea, in your righteous indignation….
…although my all my post argued was:
1) we don’t know if a new commander will work or not, and
2) it wasn’t treason.
BTW, dont think I forgot you have been singing this tune for as long as I have been here. I remember about 8 months ago you were accusing the frontline commanders of treason, and claiming they could break through anytime they wanted by using drones. You seem to suffer from technophilia, where every problem can just be solved by some new gadgets, that appear out of nowhere, and are suddenly widely distributed everywhere…

Posted by: UWDude | Feb 15 2024 22:07 utc | 71

Predictions of US bankruptcy never end. They’ve been around since before the Soviet Union collapsed.
Posted by: Bye-bye Avdeevka | Feb 15 2024 20:08 utc | 41
The U.S. Federal Government owes $34,000 Billion dollars in Debt at this moment in time. $10,000 billion needs to be financed this fiscal year which includes re-financing $8,000 Billion and new borrowing of $2,000 Billion.
Of the $34,000 Billion owed, some claim approx. $6,000 Billion is “owed to ourselves”. That is technically true. BUT the rest of the story is that $6,000 Billion is cash U.S. Politicians took from Social Security, etc, spent it (on wars, etc.) and put an IOU slip in the cash box.
U.S. Corporate and Personal Debt adds another $34,000 billion to TOTAL U.S. Debt, and that does not include State Debt and Bank Debt.
Financing wars on 2 Fronts, and if the Warmongers get their way it will be on 3 fronts, is expensive.
Past performance does not guarantee your future. Go to FRED St.Louis to find the glorious numbers owed from fighting with everyone on the Planet, including Ukraine/Russia.

Posted by: kupkee | Feb 15 2024 22:10 utc | 72

“Drone coalition” is going to produce one million drones in EU? They probably meant ordering one million drones from China?

Posted by: Tak | Feb 15 2024 22:12 utc | 73

“Much more bizarre is that both sides use Starlink. Will that help the Russians?
Supposedly the user can’t tell friend from foe near the front.”
Re starlink. The question if Russia is actually using it, what is it using it for? It cannot be for Russian coms as US can obviously record, monitor every communication on that system. It will all be going into and recorded in US database (I forget the name of the agency) and the Russians will know this.
Matryoshka?

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 15 2024 22:23 utc | 74

“And though your statements have truth in them, (how much is debatable, as in how bad losing an empty troop carrier affects morale vs the sudden seizure of Avdeevka), they do not address one critical point:
Would shooting down a couple of drones even be effective?
Imagine, Russia shoots down two drones. Russo-hawks rejoice. America issues strongly worded statements, but no actual retaliation, Russo-hawks sings choruses of “I told you So!”
Then, three months later, another Russian ship is sunk.
Now what? Was the risk of strategic escalation worth it?”
Posted by: UWDude | Feb 15 2024 21:25 utc | 64
You have multiple questions, but I think the most important one is: “Would shooting down a couple of drones even be effective?”, in the short term no, it may have some deterrence value in the medium to long term, it does however impose an immediate cost on NATO, a Global Hawk drone is worth more than 130 million, will more Russian ships be sunk? Of course, but at a cost, right now NATO doesn’t pay any cost per Russian ship sunk in the Black Sea, even though it’s very likely they are participating in the kill chain that is costing Russian service members lives.
This can lead to escalation as these are high priced drones no doubt about that, the answer here is not so simple as some like shadowbanned like to portray, however the extreme opposite of shadowbanned is sitting there and having NATO ISR assets directly participate in the kill-chain against Russian service members and saying it’s all fine we will remain stoic but if they really hit anything of “value” then Putin will get serious and unleash the nukes. Both positions are laughable and ironically both lead to the use of nuclear weapons, one says use it now and the other says use it when they do something really serious.
This is a tough decision for Putin and the west plays on that, Naryshkin referenced how the west is constantly proclaiming escalation and how they use it as a deterrent against Russia in an interview sometime last year I think, given Russia does not want escalation. I suspect the escalation bluff will have to be called and when it is , it may actually lead to a stabilization in terms of western direct participation in this conflict.
One last thing: ” sudden seizure of Avdeevka”, I doubt the Russian service members involved would agree with this assessment, it has been a long and bloody fight that is still not over, yes Russia will end up capturing but I suspect the cost has been high, as happens when obtaining anything of true value. Morale will rise no doubt but under the current stated Putin strategy every Ukranian who is willing to press the “fire” button on a NATO provided weapons system will have to be annihilated in the SMO, at some point the weapons pipeline will have to be addressed and the only way Russia can do that is via a treaty or a credible deterrent. NATO possesses that very real credible deterrent against Russia at the moment Russia does not.

Posted by: silverdog | Feb 15 2024 22:27 utc | 75

Now the tactic seems to be complete encirclement and annihilation
of the enemy, in other words Stalin style. If this is true then Russia is now meaning to fight properly.
Posted by: gT | Feb 15 2024 16:49 utc | 16
Not necessarily. Blocking full retreat is NOWADAYS the best way to force a mass surrender. Dima says 8500 Ukies in Avdiivka vs 40,000 Russians. Why kill no threat? Why waste ammo? Why endanger RF troops? Far better to lock ’em up for a year. And, that many surrendered POWs is a much smarter PR strategy than allienating 8,500 Ukrainian families with a firebag slaughter. It gives massive POW exchange leverage. It will demoralise the AFU, the West, and appear more compassionate.
PS. Please do not equate Stalin’s style with Putin’s style. Very different men, times and purposes.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Feb 15 2024 22:28 utc | 76

So Avdiivka has fallen. Completely encircled and cut off now, all that’s left is the mopping up. And a month and a half before Brave Sir Shadowbanned/Micron had thought.
Next up, maybe Chasin Yar, as that Ukraine line gets pushed back further and further.

Posted by: James M. | Feb 15 2024 22:32 utc | 77

Ukrainian nazis in germany.
Back to the roots…
https://t.me/centuria_magdeburg/87
We expect to receive more.
https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article250007304/Ukraine-Bei-einem-Zerfall-der-Ukraine-droht-eine-Massenflucht.html
Maybe the numbers are wrong, but we can be sure, which kind of people will be in need.

Posted by: 600w | Feb 15 2024 22:32 utc | 78

60 & 53
Agree!
I am asking myself every day since starting of this so called SMO slomo why the hell all supplying transportation routes to frontlines and strategic important facilities te still intact?
There is NO Logic military explanation
Treasury!
On one hand Putin is acting as the big Russian on the other hand he is supporting the enemy
Insane!

Posted by: SlowSoft | Feb 15 2024 22:33 utc | 79

So Avdiivka has fallen. Completely encircled and cut off now, all that’s left is the mopping up. And a month and a half before Brave Sir Shadowbanned/Micron had thought.
Next up, maybe Chasin Yar, as that Ukraine line gets pushed back further and further.
Posted by: James M. | Feb 15 2024 22:32 utc | 77

Pleasantly surprised on this one.
But it’s still a long way to Uzhgorod and Novovolynsk.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 15 2024 22:34 utc | 80

Past performance does not guarantee your future. Go to FRED St.Louis to find the glorious numbers owed from fighting with everyone on the Planet, including Ukraine/Russia.
Posted by: kupkee | Feb 15 2024 22:10 utc | 72

Fomenting a war with China right now is beyond ludicrous. They are convinced that China will break or back down before the US does. I don’t know what to say other than hubris is a helluva drug.
I know, I’m being somewhat sarcastic on the US bankruptcy topic. Even though I agree and tell myself this is all unsustainable and the giant bubble will burst… one of these days, it’s difficult to not look back and admit they keep pulling rabbits out the hat to inflate the bubble even more, relying on infinite growth to get from quarter to quarter.
For example US stock market returns are all but guaranteed these days. And not just guaranteed to return your losses but on top of that to have double digit returns annually. The lesson is, always buy on the dips, always The US stock market will be bailed out. Until they can’t be…
Do they even have a choice anymore? With tens of millions now relying on 401k’s, invested pensions, inflated asset prices (i.e. homes), etc. The scheme is huge!
Tremendously complex and involved topic and I won’t try and argue one way or the other about the future anymore. Overall I feel pretty nervous about what might happen in my remaining lifetime.

Posted by: Bye-bye Avdeevka | Feb 15 2024 22:40 utc | 81

I’ve tried to follow these naval drone attacks to see how the technology is developing. BSF ships are being taken out almost on demand by surface drones that, more often than not, should be spotted and intercepted with readily available night optics and small arms.
Posted by: anon2020 | Feb 15 2024 20:31 utc | 46

Exagerated nonsense. Are you not aware that Ukraine has been sending literally WAVES of air drones, sea drones, and missiles at the BSF intermittently for 2 years, sometimes dozens in one flurry. Only about 6 have ever done damage, incl 3 ships and 3 fuel depots. Russian AD is 5% fallible. Ffs, give some credit rather than expect perfection.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Feb 15 2024 22:41 utc | 82

The concept of ‘drone alliance’ is interesting.
The most probable thing they want to do is build equivalent Geranium drones and send them off to different facilities in Russia. Unfortunately, as events in Ukraine and Russia have shown, the methods of spotting low flying long range drones are still very limited, and eventually more industrial facilities in Russia will inevitably get hit.
Unless there are some kind of AWACS drones to detect other drones, then the only defense is passive point defense in every single industrial location. Since a drone flies low, it means the point defense system has little time to detect and react to shoot down an incoming drone.
The unfortunate fact is that small long range drones force large costs for proper defense, since there are simply a huge number of potential targets to defend.
The best solution is simply, well, offense and annihilating the enemy army. Without an army, there’s little way to exploit what drones might achieve on some strategic targets.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 15 2024 22:45 utc | 83

Jake Blanchard | Feb 15 2024 22:28 utc | 76
This one will be interesting as the neo-nazi Azov has been sent in. Russia does not have the death penalty so they will receive 25 years to life in a penal colony. But they can be killed on the battlefield. As they are not in a bunker complex like Azovstal, and I doubt high ranking Nato officers are there, they may well not be asked to surrender and even if Azov offer to, that may well not be accepted.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 15 2024 22:46 utc | 84

The concept of ‘drone alliance’ is interesting.
The most probable thing they want to do is build equivalent Geranium drones and send them off to different facilities in Russia. Unfortunately, as events in Ukraine and Russia have shown, the methods of spotting low flying long range drones are still very limited, and eventually more industrial facilities in Russia will inevitably get hit.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 15 2024 22:45 utc | 83

That will be the same as sending cruise missiles.
Medvedev repeatedly threatened nuclear strikes if something like this happens, and really, there is no other choice if it does.
But we’ve seen the Kremlin’s bluff being called endlessly over the last two years, so who knows…

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 15 2024 22:48 utc | 85

Posted by: silverdog | Feb 15 2024 22:27 utc | 75
I always know when I dont go into long clarification, what minute points will be seized upon.
Yes, Avdeevka took a long time.
The morale boost is coming from thinking it would take 4 more months, to looking like it might just take two more weeks.
Not only does the victory itself raise morale, but so too does the vision that although it looks like a stalemate, breakthroughs and collapses can happen.
I can not predict how fast Avdeevka will fall, but it already looks like it is going to be faster than expected, a macro metaphor on the entire LoC? Morale and hope are siblings, with truth a distant cousin.
Back to the Navy:
I am aware Russian sailors are dying. It is sad, but lets not forget that Russian soldiers are dying in much greater numbers.
Essentially, the navy, like all navies now, has a new main mission; don’t get sunk, it hurts morale.
If I may make a metaphor to another theater to explain the relevance:. Tucker asked Putin about Western perception. Putin in essence answered, “NATO owns the theater of propaganda, no need to bother winning it back”
Likewise, the Black Sea is NATOs as long as Turkey is in NATO. It like the left hand’s job is simply to deflect blows so the right can land punches.

Posted by: UWDude | Feb 15 2024 22:49 utc | 86

Far better to lock ’em up for a year.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Feb 15 2024 22:28 utc | 76

Agreed. It will add a significant burden managing such a surrender but I think you outlined good reasons why it’s worthwhile. A huge blow to Ukraine on every level.

Posted by: Bye-bye Avdeevka | Feb 15 2024 22:54 utc | 87

Likewise, the Black Sea is NATOs as long as Turkey is in NATO. It like the left hand’s job is simply to deflect blows so the right can land punches.
Posted by: UWDude | Feb 15 2024 22:49 utc | 86

Turkey joined NATO in 1952.
Yet the Black Sea was almost fully Russian controlled all the way to 1990.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 15 2024 22:55 utc | 88

Not so long ago, Zelensky, who is currently playing the president in the drama “Slava Ukraine”, declared:
https://overton-magazin.de/top-story/selenskij-warnt-die-eu-vor-den-reaktionen-der-fluechtlingen-wenn-die-hilfen-fuer-die-ukraine-gekuerzt-wuerden/
The following articles testify to the successful and responsible work of German security organisations:
https://de.rt.com/inland/196156-neonazistisches-netzwerk-aus-ukraine-macht-macht-sich-deutschland-breit/
https://www.jungewelt.de/artikel/469335.nazi-organisationen-h%C3%B6llensturm-f%C3%BCr-den-feind.html
Is this now OK and a matter for the police, or is it political terror and the constitutional defence is responsible?
Can the judiciary provide support?
And why does the “firewall against the right” want to supply Taurus to Nazis?
https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/der-tag-wie-stabil-ist-die-brandmauer-gegen-rechts-100.html
Germany 2024
Baerbock is probably still proud.
https://taz.de/NS-Vergangenheit-von-Baerbocks-Grossvater/!5992602/
But journalists know them grandad better.

Posted by: 600w | Feb 15 2024 22:55 utc | 89

Re the British ‘perhaps’ drone attack on a Russian landing ship.
Martyanov has a good piece on it. These sort of things pop up when the proxy nazi forces suffer a set back which is now occurring frequently.
Rus mod doesn’t say much so its difficult to tell either way. Some of these British strikes do occur and some do not, and some are little more than inflated balloons.
Russia went into this, especially the second phase knowing full well it was in a war with the west. At the moment, any Russian losses are minor compared to all out direct war with the west.
Any direct war with the west, even if kept conventional means far larger material and manpower losses for Russia not to mention economical.
For this reason it seems Russia will allow it to remain a quasi proxy war until militarily attacked openly by the west.
I would often like to see the rabid poodles directly attack Russia so they receive the same lesson dished to to those that came before them, but that has too much chance of going nuclear

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 15 2024 23:00 utc | 90

And why does the “firewall against the right” want to supply Taurus to Nazis?
Posted by: 600w | Feb 15 2024 22:55 utc | 89

That has been a “funny” aspect of the whole situation for a while. The far right boogeyman has been rolled out daily for a decade now, yet we will ally with outright Nazis in Kiev, will demolish all Red Army monuments throughout Europe, and demonize the USSR even more than we did during the Cold War. Doesn’t quite compute, does it…

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 15 2024 23:01 utc | 91

Turkey joined NATO in 1952.
Yet the Black Sea was almost fully Russian controlled all the way to 1990.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 15 2024 22:55 utc | 88
Almost… …Except that pesky little business of ever getting in or out of the Black sea.
I wrote a long post about this many months ago about Russia and Turkey. Russia has nukes, Turkey has the Bosporus, and this defines their blance.

Posted by: UWDude | Feb 15 2024 23:01 utc | 92

AFU retreat from Avdeevka is per TG channel reports a disorganized massacre. 10 bombs were dropped in hours, and continuous artillery hammering infantry trying to leave.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 15 2024 23:04 utc | 93

Likewise, the Black Sea is NATOs as long as Turkey is in NATO. It like the left hand’s job is simply to deflect blows so the right can land punches.
Posted by: UWDude | Feb 15 2024 22:49 utc | 86
Agreed, that is exactly what is happening now. The Russian Navy in the Black Sea is deflecting/receiving escalation blows while the Russian land forces make progress in Ukraine. It’s the tradeoff Putin has decided to make, it’s a political decision.
Agree also on NATO having control on the Black Sea as long as Russia does not escalate there, once Russia decides to impose a cost/tax on NATO activity on the Black Sea we may see the situation balancing out. Until such a cost/tax is placed on the Black Sea it is defacto controlled by NATO.

Posted by: silverdog | Feb 15 2024 23:10 utc | 94

Peter AU1 | Feb 15 2024 22:46 utc | 84
***… they may well not be asked to surrender and even if Azov offer to, that may well not be accepted.***
The Donetsk and Chechen forces said some time ago that they will be killed.

Posted by: Cynic | Feb 15 2024 23:17 utc | 95

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 15 2024 23:01 utc | 91
Or…
“In Israel’s Yad Vashem, the most important Jewish Holocaust memorial, Bandera, the gang leader, is recognised as the mass murderer of hundreds of thousands of Jews, Poles, women and children. In 1941, Ukrainian fighters formed the “Nightingale” battalion in his name and took part in progroms.

Putin friend or anti-Semite?
Israel chooses the anti-Semites here.
But to say that as a German would be anti-Semitic.
How good that judges can judge that at their own discretion, according to the Workshop for Justice.

Posted by: 600w | Feb 15 2024 23:19 utc | 96

„Stalin Style“
Imagine „Putin Style“ in Stalingrad against the 6th Army of Wehrmacht!?
Russia would be today province of German Reich
The legendary 6th Army overhelmed france & Belgium with blitz krieg operation.
In Stalingrad fought 600k German soldiers against 600k soldiers from red army.
In Avdeevka 40k russian soldiers struggle 2 years with 8k ukronazis (NOT 6th Army Wehrmacht!) BY PUTIN STYLE

Posted by: tesla | Feb 15 2024 23:20 utc | 97

There are so many of these types of direct hits on AFU troops, munitions, mercs now, one accurate, timely strike after another that it’s clear Russian intelligence is being aided by insiders in the UKR government and military, and people all over Ukraine. It’s snowballing, I think this is the real reason for Russia’s sudden breakthroughs, more than the year long grinding down of the AFU.
The pro Russian population in Ukraine is finding the courage to rise up, basically partisans with cell phones, and a lot of people in the AFU have soured on NATO, UK, USA blowhards and US, UK, Polish, French, Italian sick-fuck mercs, and the Zelesnky vampire government. Collapse from within, don’t want to jinx it but I dare say it’s finally here. Let’s hope Russia can take control over the implosion from NATO and something better (no WW3) comes out of it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vom74cbY838

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 15 2024 23:25 utc | 98

From missiles to EW and laser arms: Meet Russia’s various anti-satellite warfare innovations ‼️
On February 15, Moscow strongly refuted baseless rumors claiming that Russia was attempting to deploy a nuclear anti-satellite system in outer space.
“The fact is that the deployment of nuclear weapons in space is ineffective in terms of its use, especially given that Russia has much simpler and cheaper means to disable a significant part of the US satellite constellation in the event of hostilities,” military analyst and editor-in-chief of the National Defense magazine Igor Korotchenko told Sputnik. Let’s explore what these potential systems are:
▪️The A-235 Nudol is a defense missile system that can hit a target up to 1,500 kilometers away.
Its interception speed reaches Mach 10, compared to Mach 3.5 for the A-135. The A-235 may use kinetic force, rather than nuclear or high-explosive fragmentation, to destroy a target.
▪️’Nanosatellites’ Nivelir, Burevestnik and Numismat. A series of stealth “satellite inspectors” could reportedly been placed in specific orbits to affect “adversary” satellites in various ways, including “inspecting” them, that is, by collecting all the necessary information about them.
▪️The 30P6 Kontakt (“Contact”) system consists of the 79M6 three-staged rocket mounted on the MiG-31D fighter-interceptor. It is capable of reaching extreme altitudes in the stratosphere.
▪️The Tirada-2S radio-electronic communication suppression system is capable of conducting electronic jamming of satellite communications, in fact, satellites can be directly disabled from the Earth’s surface.
▪️The Peresvet laser weapons for air defense and anti-satellite warfare is reportedly capable of blinding the optical systems of reconnaissance satellites, UAVs, and aircraft.
The Peresvet, named after the medieval Orthodox warrior monk, Alexander Peresvet, entered experimental combat duty in the Russian Armed Forces in December 2018.
https://pravda-en.com/world/2024/02/15/322900-amp.html

Posted by: UWDude | Feb 15 2024 23:26 utc | 99

97
Imagine Putin style instead of Truman style against Japan

Posted by: SlowSoft | Feb 15 2024 23:45 utc | 100