Ukraine Can No Longer Win - It In Fact Never Had A Chance To Win
A former U.S. Colonel opines in The Hill:
Ukraine can no longer win - The Hill, Feb 22 2024
Welcome to the club, I'd say, but its nearly two years to late for that. Ukraine lost the war on February 24 2022, the day the Special Military operation had started.
There never was a chance for Ukraine to win.
I will first let the Colonel recap the established narrative to then add my observations to it:
Two years ago, the Ukrainian Armed Forces defied expectations immediately. Days before Russia’s massive combined arms incursion, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley spoke for the U.S. military when he predicted to Congress that Kyiv would fall within 72 hours.Many military analysts similarly predicted the Russian Armed Forces would quickly rout the overmatched Ukrainians. American leaders encouraged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to leave the country, lest Russian troops assassinate him.
These projections of immediate success for Russia misread the progress Ukraine had made in capability and readiness since Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. They also overestimated the Russian forces’ readiness, air superiority, and command cohesion.
That is all - somewhat - true.
There were expectations that the Russian forces would quickly conquer Kiev and overthrow the sitting government. However, the Russians never applied the necessary manpower to do so. Pacifying and holding an enemy city in modern times generally requires abound 1 soldier per 40 inhabitants. When the war started Kiev had about 3 million inhabitants. Taking and holding the city would have required some 75,000 troops. But the Russian forces never deployed more than 40,000 troops into the general direction of Kiev.
Thus the military aim was not to take the city. It was to apply pressure to achieve a political aim.
Immediately after the war had begun the Ukrainian government had agreed to hold peace talks. Over the next weeks these were held first in Belarus and later in Istanbul. In late March, after Ukraine had agreed during the negotiations to not join NATO, Russia made the good will gesture of pulling its troops back from the capitol. But in early April the U.S. and UK intervened and pressed Kiev to abolish negotiations.
The western political and military leadership had simply misread the Russian aim, thought its military was weak and had come to the wrong conclusions.
That also happened in the following phase:
One year ago, all signs were encouraging. Ukrainian forces had been bloodied, but they held on to territory in the east in defiance of expectations. Successful counteroffensives allowed Ukraine to regain territory in the south. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy defiantly declared the coming year one of “our invincibility.” American aid to the country offered a king’s ransom in artillery and anti-tank weapons through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, and the flow seemed unceasing.Inspired by Ukraine’s stunning success against the much larger and more advanced military, the West galvanized behind Zelensky and his troops. Tragically, all these indicators led to unrealistic expectations.
Russia has started the war with its military structured in peace-time formations. It had only used its standing forces, not any conscripts or mobilized troops, to launch the Ukraine campaign. The main organizational structure of Russian troops at that time were the Battalion Tactical Groups.
Excursus: During Soviet times the military had the classic war-time structure of Divisions with 4 to 5 Brigades each of which each had 4 to 5 Battalions each of which had four to five Companies. Such structures require lots of people.
To save money Russia did away with the Division layer. The Motorized Infantry Brigades, consisting of one tank Battalion, two motorized infantry Battalions and two artillery Battalions, were shrunken into Battalion Tactical Groups.
About a third of the artillery and tanks formations were eliminated as well as half of infantry. Instead of some 4.000-4.500 soldiers in a Brigade formations the Battalion Tactical Groups had each kept only 2,000 men. The no longer manned and needed equipment was put into storage.
The peace construct of a Battalion Tactical Group was a lot cheaper than the people intensive Brigade structure but still had about 2/3rd of the original fire power. The idea had always been that, should a war happen, the BTG structure would be re-filled with mobilized men and restored equipment to again become a full-sized brigade. - End Excursus
It was not until August 2022, after the failure of another round of negotiations, that the Russian leadership decided to go on war footage. A mobilization was launched, equipment was pulled from storage and peacetime BTG formations were revived into full Brigade structures. The Division command layer was reestablished. All this required time and retraining. The war industry had to be set up to support a longer fight.
There is a saying: "The Russians are slow to saddle but ride fast." It can be applied here.
During 2022 to early 2023 the sparse Russian forces were required to use economy of force. Positions of less value were guarded by a minimum of forces (Kharkiv, Kherson). When those forces came under pressure the positions were simply given up. Defensive lines were build to guard more valuable ground.
By spring to summer 2023 the Russian forces had (re-)grown to full war power. The systematic destruction of the Ukrainian forces could finally begin.
As soon as the Ukrainian forces tried to challenge the revived Russian formations, most famously in their failed 'counter offensive, the got beaten the hell out of themselves. Pressed to produced more gains the political leadership of Ukraine demanded that its troops attack everywhere and never retreat.
That fitted the political Russian aim of demilitarizing Ukraine. Defending from well dug positions and with an increasing advantage of artillery and air power the Russian forces decimated attacking Ukrainian forces.
At the end of last year the Ukrainian military started to change its tactic. For a lack of forces and material it had to go into a defensive mode. The Russian forces, now fully equipped and battle ready, started their offensive campaign:
Today, the situation is grim. The fighting has slowed to a cruel slog that works to Russia’s favor. Ukraine runs low on troops and munitions, while Russia maintains both in plenty. The long-planned, high-risk, months-long Ukrainian spring 2023 counteroffensive failed, with Ukraine unable to regain territory seized by Russia. Support for Zelensky in Ukraine and the West has finally slipped. American aid is logjammed in Congress, and the U.S. seems tired of funding the war.Over much of the past two years, following those predictions of immediate Russian victory, analysts and policymakers have gone in the other direction with a new set of misjudgments: that the Russian Army is a paper tiger; that the generals will turn on Putin; that Ukraine will bleed Russia out in Donbass.
The reality, two years in, is that there is no path to victory for Ukraine, at least not in the sense of pushing Russian troops back to 2021 lines of control. After Ukrainian troops abandoned Avdiivka following some of the war’s heaviest fighting — the most significant loss or gain by either side in nine months — almost all advantages accrue to Russia.
War, as seen by the Russians, is a slow process that requires that all elements, political, civilian and military, are synchronized. In that view winning this or that battle does not matter much. It is the long term approach that makes the difference. It takes time to achieve the steady state that over time creates victory. Only when that state is achieved can the real destruction of the enemy begin.
Russian forces are currently attacking in all directions. The Ukrainian forces lack personnel as well as munitions. It is only a question of time until the Ukraine has to give up and to seek peace under whatever unfavorable condition.
There never really was, and is no longer a way, to change that path.
The $60 billion aid package held up in Congress will not significantly change the future. This fight is a long haul one that will require additional aid. The spigot will close at some point — perhaps soon — turning off aid and sealing Ukraine’s fate.
The endgame in Ukraine is approaching fast. It may indeed come much sooner than many are today willing to admit.
Posted by b on February 23, 2024 at 16:05 UTC | Permalink
next page »Never had a chance.
A nation destroyed.
500,000+ dead humans and counting.
The empire of death, deceit and delusions.....
Ain't Democracy great?
Posted by: Robert | Feb 23 2024 16:13 utc | 2
@ b who wrote
"
Immediately after the war had begun the Ukrainian government had agreed to hold peace talks. Over the next weeks these were held first in Belarus and later in Istanbul. In late March, after Ukraine had agreed during the negotiations to not join NATO, Russia made the good will gesture of pulling its troops back from the capitol. But in early April the U.S. and UK intervened and pressed Kiev to abolish negotiations.
"
I was one who thought that the West was going to capitulate early and was wrong. I also agree with your current assessment that the Ukraine endgame will come sooner than expected....and hope we are not wrong.
The question I have is how its trajectory fits into the larger civilization war we are in....does it lead or lag the other components?
And when do the political negotiations start based on the Ukraine failure and who are the global actors involved? Pope Frank? King Chuck? Jamie Dimon?
Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 23 2024 16:21 utc | 3
sry for my question, but to me it seems still unsettled:
Where do we stand now regarding RU special forces (the "airport incident") attempting to take the Kiev government in a "coup de main". To avoid a militay de facto occupation of Kiev and instead take control of the top echelon directly and swiftly.
I have been running into this argument since. Pointing out that the Russians failed there and that this was the best of proofs that RU forces in fact did not intend to distract but take over and failed in doing so.
So the coup idea fuels the narative of military all-over failure.
p.s. thx for the blog entry
Posted by: AG | Feb 23 2024 16:32 utc | 4
Thus the military aim was not to take the city. It was to apply pressure to achieve a political aim.
I think it was a military aim.
8 years of digging in strong artillery positions from which to shell Donbas civilians was always Kiev's (Nato's) trump card. Even now we are seeing how a pitifully weak and ill lead Ukrainian force has been able to defend Bakhmut or Avdiivka for months at a time. The Colonel is right, Ukraine could never have defeated Russia in battle, but it could slaughter tens of thousands of Donbas civilians and that threat had to be countered.
[Indeed I'd even say that the plan was an attack on Donbas, the evacuation of all civilians and an Israel style regaining of the territory. Only Russia pre-empted the false-flag that the CIA had so strongly signalled, with the SMO.]
The Great Distraction (imagine attacking Hostomel airport, West of Kiev before Mariuopol) gave time to Russia to get enough of its own artillery between the dug in positions of Ukraine and Donbas civilians. Enough to prevent continuous firing on civilians.
The endgame in Ukraine is approaching fast. It may indeed come much sooner than many are today willing to admit.
From a global perspective the sooner the West admits its defeat the sooner it can re-group and enforce membership on those in Europe and elsewhere that might want out. The longer it lasts the more embarrassing things are, the more compelling are the reasons to get out of the West and join BRICS.
Frankly Russia and China's best interests are served if this goes on beyond the US elections. I doubt Russia wants to push on the open door, rather (as b suggests) this will be a Ukrainian collapse. Much like the withdrawal from Afghanistan was a US collapse rather than a Taliban attack.
Posted by: Mickey Droy | Feb 23 2024 16:34 utc | 5
Note - The Ukrainian Civil War has been a hot war between the RF and NATO. Make no mistake, it’s NATO that’s being defeated.
$65 billion RF military budget 2021
More than $1,000 billion NATO military budget
Posted by: Exile | Feb 23 2024 16:38 utc | 6
Thx for discussion of how BTGs morphed back into regular division structure; I had been wondering about it for a long time, esp as BTGs seemed to make sense.
The fervor for the $60B is all about "last chance for grift". The money would go to Ukraine, Ukraine would vanish down the rathole and voila', the money becomes totally untraceable.
Posted by: oracle | Feb 23 2024 16:38 utc | 7
[email protected] negotiation.....the Brits are testing their off ramps, they hit a few pot holes, some scoff, some laugh....but if they smooth them out, expect a Black Swan event.
Cheers M
I've heard the term Black Swan Event but never paid it much attention (they happen more often than I knew) but some guy today was taking Talib, black swans and randomness.....although personally for me it's more Synchronistic.
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 23 2024 16:42 utc | 8
thanks b…. did the west misread the situation, or was the intent to mislead its own public? i say the later…. anyone with a brian could see where this was going.. instead the warmongers have continued to profit…. thus the necessary. misread..
Posted by: james | Feb 23 2024 16:43 utc | 9
Posted by: AG | Feb 23 2024 16:32 utc | 4
Ukraine attack on the Donbass Republics was imminent.
IMU: one major aspect was to frighten the Ukrainian administration ( Selensky )
to redirect the assembled force to defend Kiev. in a way foiling the attack on Donbass.
Before that various armed groups popping up on the border to RU And Belarus was intended to force some "stretching" of UKR resources.
the long army convoy lingering ( ha, Ruskis don't even have enough fuel for their army ) apears to have the "operation halted" during the Istanbul talks.
Boris the beast terminated those and simultaneously the Butcha Massacre was "revealed".
IMHO the false flag character of that "Massacre" is exposed by the "clean white bandages" used to bind the hands of the bodies placed. Traitors!
Clean white appearance requires that they where applied after the bodies being placed.
Posted by: MAKK | Feb 23 2024 16:43 utc | 10
According to DPA latest video the Robotyne area and associated pocket is collapsing rapidly and looks to be falling apart in Russias favor.
Usual caveats apply about YT bloggers sometimes getting ahead of themselves.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 23 2024 16:44 utc | 11
brain… brian. oh well.. just call me the scarecrow in the wizard of oz..
Posted by: james | Feb 23 2024 16:44 utc | 12
Ain't Democracy great?
Posted by: Robert | Feb 23 2024 16:13 utc | 2
There's no democracy in the west, just a ruling class window dressing of it. Like our masters vaunted anti racism, "democracy" is just to cover the authoritarian oligarchical reality.
Don't blame"democracy" blame the tiny group of ultra wealthy folks in the west and their puppets in government and the media. This clutch of trash seceded from the populations of their countries long, long ago.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Feb 23 2024 16:52 utc | 13
As you've been saying for some time now, b., the war will end when the Ukies collapse which they are on the verge of. The Ukies are having a hell of a time recruiting people. The Russians are not. The Ukies are getting low quality recruits – old men and children. The Russians are not. The Ukies are dependent on the vagaries of the sponsors of this war for weapons and ammo. Russia is not. connect the dots.
Posted by: Jeff Harrison | Feb 23 2024 16:58 utc | 14
Tass report:
Zelensky without Plan B and with the risk of paralyzing the economy: The events surrounding Ukraine
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky could not explain what his plan B is if Washington does not provide Kiev with a new aid package.
The Ukrainian government has no choice whether to mobilize or not, as some units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are only half occupied. However, according to experts, the mobilization has already created a huge labor shortage, and the additional conscription of hundreds of thousands of people will lead to a partial paralysis of the economy.
TASS has collected the events surrounding Ukraine.
Course of the operation
Russian forces have taken up more favorable lines and positions in the past 24 hours, repelling nine Ukrainian attacks and counterattacks near Avdeyevka, three attacks near Kupiansk and three attacks near Zaporozhye, the Russian Defense Ministry said.
The enemy's losses during the day amounted to up to 840 fighters in all sectors, including Donetsk, south of Donetsk and Kherson.
Russian air defenses shot down an S-200 air defense system converted into an attack missile, eight HIMARS missiles, a JDAM guided missile bomb and 95 drones in the past 24 hours, the Defense Ministry said. In addition, Russian forces hit a launch pad and a transport vehicle of the US Patriot air defense system, as well as personnel and military equipment of Ukraine in 114 areas.
Without plan B
The Ukrainian president was unable to explain in an interview with Fox News what his plan B would be if Washington does not provide Kiev with a new aid package. Zelensky contradicted the journalist's claim that the capture of Avdeyevka by the Russian armed forces opened a new phase in the course of the conflict, since Avdeyevka was only “a” city.
Difficulty mobilizing
Some Ukrainian units are less than half-staffed, said David Arahamiya, leader of the presidential Servant of the People party in the Verkhovna Rada. Therefore, the Ukrainian government has “no choice whether to carry out the mobilization or not.”
According to Ukrainian media, the number of men subject to mobilization in Ukraine could reach a maximum of 850,000 under the new bill currently being considered by the Verkhovna Rada. It is noted that it takes an average of 80,000 hryvnias, or about $2,000, per month to support one soldier, which assumes four or five people paying taxes for the army. Experts and companies have long pointed out that the mobilization has led to an enormous labor shortage and that the additional conscription of hundreds of thousands of people will lead to a partial paralysis of the economy.
British sanctions
Great Britain has expanded the list of anti-Russian sanctions by 50 items. These include two Russian companies in the diamond industry, the head of Alrosa Pavel Marinychev, companies and people in the field of ammunition production, metallurgical companies, companies in the field of oil sales and transportation, the management of Novatek and the Arctic LNG-2 project. The list was published on the UK Foreign Office website.
The sanctioned individuals include Igor Zyuzin, chairman of the board and largest shareholder of the mining and metallurgical holding Mechel, four members of the board of directors of Alrosa, Anatoly Sedykh, chairman of the board of United Metallurgical Company, owner of UMMC, and Anna Luzhanskaya, founder of the previously sanctioned company Fly Bridge.
The EU has postponed the date
The EU no longer sees March as the date for the start of negotiations on Ukraine's admission to the EU. Preparations for this process “could take weeks or months,” said the head of the EU Commission’s press service, Eric Mamer. According to him, there is no specific date for the start of negotiations and “there is no question of accelerating this process.”
Rocket deliveries from Germany
The German Bundestag has voted against a resolution from the CDU/CSU parliamentary group that calls for the delivery of Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. A total of 182 of the 667 MPs present voted in favor, 480 were against, and another 5 MPs abstained.
At the same time, MPs passed a resolution from the governing party groups (SPD, Greens and FDP) calling for the delivery of long-range weapons to Ukraine.
The document states that long-term military support for Ukraine “also includes the.“Delivering the necessary additional long-range combat systems and ammunition” so that it can “carry out targeted attacks against strategically important targets deep behind the lines” of the Russian armed forces. Taurus cruise missiles are not specifically mentioned.
Weapons for Ukraine
British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said Britain would deliver 200 more Brimstone high-precision missiles to Ukraine, as this type of missile has already “demonstrated the ability to influence the situation on the battlefield.” He also recalled that in the near future Kiev should receive from London drones, electronic warfare, mine countermeasures and other equipment purchased from the International Fund to Support Ukraine.
Denmark will provide military aid worth 1.7 billion crowns ($247 million) to Ukraine, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced. Earlier, Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said that the new aid package for Ukraine would include air defense equipment, drones and artillery pieces.
End of translation
.
source
.
https://www.anti-spiegel.ru/2024/selensky-ohne-plan-b-eu-macht-rueckzieher-und-die-laehmung-der-wirtschaft-die-ereignisse-des-22-februar/
Posted by: Ossi | Feb 23 2024 16:59 utc | 15
Posted by: AG | Feb 23 2024 16:32 utc | 4For a "long form" analysis of the days in Kiev & Gostomel, see https://bigserge.substack.com/p/the-russo-ukrainian-war. And everything Big Serge writes about war is more than worth your time (I was surpised to learn that URSS lost the battle of Kursk).
Posted by: marcel | Feb 23 2024 17:01 utc | 16
Posted by: AG | Feb 23 2024 16:32 utc | 4For a "long form" analysis of the days in Kiev & Gostomel, see https://bigserge.substack.com/p/the-russo-ukrainian-war. And everything Big Serge writes about war is more than worth your time (I was surpised to learn that URSS lost the battle of Kursk).
Posted by: marcel | Feb 23 2024 17:01 utc | 17
Posted by: AG | Feb 23 2024 16:32 utc | 4For a "long form" analysis of the days in Kiev & Gostomel, see https://bigserge.substack.com/p/the-russo-ukrainian-war. And everything Big Serge writes about war is more than worth your time (I was surpised to learn that URSS lost the battle of Kursk).
Posted by: marcel | Feb 23 2024 17:02 utc | 18
Winning is irrelevant to the Ukronazis and their western backers. They just want to create chaos. They will leave a totally destroyed Ukraine for the Russians to have to manage.
It is like being in a grudge fight with a narcissistic asshole. The only way to end it is to totally eliminate the source of the aggression.
Posted by: tim rourke | Feb 23 2024 17:04 utc | 19
Thanks, b, for reporting and comment.
When the war started Kiev had about 3 million inhabitants. Taking and holding the city would have required some 75,000 troops. But the Russian forces never deployed more than 40,000 troops into the general direction of Kiev.
In fact, it’s a bit more complex. On the one hand, you need 75,000 troops to hold the city if you assume that every single person will stay and not flee the area after hostilities broke out. But of course, a bunch of people will leave. So how many people fled the capital in February 2022? A third? About the half? So, after the conquest you would probably need less than the envisioned 75,000 personnel to control Kyiv. However, on the other hand, you probably need more men to take it. Because you have to keep the enemy forces in mind which defend the capital or could be relocated to help the defenders. And you have to allow for losses, rotation, and a bunch of other parameters. Additionally, not all deployed troops can be used in combat. Simplicius76 once wrote that around a third of Russia’s original forces had other duties. If he's right, then I would assume the Russians would have needed 100,000 troops only to take the capital. But - how many were deployed in the whole theatre? Simplicius guessed: only 90,000! And then – the conquest would not have been a coup de main in the style of Milley’s famous “three days”. The German Wehrmacht needed six weeks (and they originally thought it would be more or less a walk in the park, having completely underestimated the Soviet forces in the Ukrainian theatre).
So – in my opinion, Kyiv was not the focus of Russia’s army at the beginning of their ongoing intervention, but a secondary goal. Like b wrote it should “apply pressure to achieve a political aim”. And also catch the enemy’s attention as well as force him to keep troops west of the river Dnepr. The Germans did a similar thing at the beginning of their “Westfeldzug” in 1940 when they made a big fuss with airborne landings in northern Belgium and the Netherlands (taking the fort of Ében-Émael and so on) making the Allies believe that the German main attack would take place in central and northern Belgium like in WW I. Well, and then they rushed through the Ardennes… And the Russians made a big fuss around Kyiv (kindly helped by Western media), while their main troops took the land bridge in the south and stopped the Ukrainian onslaught on Donbass…
Posted by: Seneschal | Feb 23 2024 17:06 utc | 20
A good, very good interview with Geoffrey Sachs about the arrogance hubris and sheer anti Russian malice that's led to this carnage.
https://youtu.be/wmOePNsNFw0?si=3oYnf-RSeGwXwYc_
Posted by: jpc | Feb 23 2024 17:11 utc | 21
Latest Russian military report on the Ukrainian losses in the week 17 to 23 February
- Kupyansk: 390 servicemen, 4 tanks, 13 AFVs, 21 motor vehicles, 25 artillery pieces
- Donetsk: 2,560 servicemen, 12 tanks, 31 AFVs, 58 motor vehicles, 13 artillery pieces and 1 Grad MLRS
- Avdeyevka: 2,900 servicemen, 4 tanks, 37 AFVs, 90 motor vehicles, 8 artillery pieces and 1 Grad MLRS
- South Donetsk: 1,195 servicemen, 6 tanks, 6 AFVs, 23 motor vehicles, 16 artillery pieces
- Kherson: 460 servicemen, 5 tanks, 6 AFVs, 33 motor vehicles, 14 artillery pieces and 1 Grad MLRS
Plus aviation took out 1 Mig 29, 1 Mi-8, so few left to shoot down!
So thats:
- 7,505 servicemen in 7 days (I use a 1.5 multiplier to take into account the rear area losses, taken prisoner and died but not found by the Russians) so 11,250 in 7 days.
- 31 tanks in 7 days
- 93 AFVs in 7 days
- 225 motor vehicles in 7 days: A sign of utter desperation due to the lack of AFVs (which means the level of AFV losses are absolutely catastrophic), the army is using cars and trucks because they don't have AFVs.
- 76 artillery pieces and 3 Grad MLRS in 7 days: The lack of shells may soon not matter at this rate of loss, as the Ukies simply wont have barrels through which to fire the shells.
Given the lack of substantial new supplies from the West, the Russian focus on destroying repair workshops, and the inability to kidnap large numbers of new recruits (Mearsheimer predicts that they will get 150,000 more at best), this scale of losses will produce some form of collapse pretty quickly. The Ukrainian attempts to desperately hold the line are playing into the Russian hands by producing an escalating level of losses.
At this weekly rate, over 10 weeks there would be 112,500 soldier losses, 310 tanks, 930 AFVs, 2,250 motor vehicles and 760 artillery pieces, and 30 Grad MLRS. The Ukrainian army will be reduced to a unmechanized infantry with no artillery and air support in much more open ground as the heavily fortified front line towns and villages are taken by the Russians. And that's assuming no escalation in losses as the Russians continue to ramp things up.
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 23 2024 16:42 utc | 8
Found this article today whilst explaining to my granddaughter that Australian swans are black and not white like Russian swans.
Posted by: Peter Williams | Feb 23 2024 17:18 utc | 23
Ukraine was never supposed to win on the battlefield. it's the sanctions that were supposed to completely destroy the Russian state and topple Putin, because they did believe Russia was a failed state with the GDP of Italy. Just like Hitler they thought they could kick the door in and the whole rotten structure would collapse, except they are not even capable of giving a kick, so to speak, it's just financial, bureaucratic measures with the Ukrainians doing the physical part.
Posted by: abel | Feb 23 2024 17:23 utc | 24
Thanks for a brilliant analysis b. You are unmatched.
Maskrovia had its part to play and still does.
I wonder if the natzos are actually going to fail their useless computer game wunnderwaffens, Hollywood infantilised , Mavrik superhero fairy tale F16’s or even the largely useless F35’s ever.
One thing is certain the Arms Fair purchasers won’t be so easily able to justify their bribed purchases so easily to their own soldiers , generals and political representatives!
The MIC is the dodo in the making.
Posted by: DunGroanin | Feb 23 2024 17:27 utc | 25
RE: Posted by: Jeff Harrison | Feb 23 2024 16:58 utc | 14
It’s a nice picture, but not realistic. Regardless of all these “analysts”, Ukraine is hardly on any verge of “collapse”.
They continue to be well funded, and ammunition & HIMAR ammo will be substituted by more lethal and limiter ranged weapons.
They will withdraw their forces to a defensive position, continuing to lose more and more territory, but that too will cost more Russian lives, and they will continue the war, peppered with terror attacks here and there, they will receive the F16s and the whole SMO will continue to escalate to the finality of a NATO war operation openly, which is where it was always going to end up.
Russia did a good job prolonging the confrontation and is well armed and all the t’s crossed for mass mobilization,
But anyone here thinking Ukraine is on “last keg” , is living in a dream world. Recruits are already being filled by mass NATO sheep dipped “mercenary” personnel, and will continue to be, the F16 pilots coming, are NATO trained pilots.
Yes, this current “line of contact” and warfare is buckling,
But it can’t be more obvious that there will be no surrender or capitulation from Ukraine. In addition, it can’t be more obvious with UK & US that they intend to bring NATO in using runways of some nation to bomb the interior of Russia.
Some would say: “fine, let NATIO get slaughtered too then”,
Or say: “no they wouldn’t, cuz “NATO” is a farce, they ain’t got nothing “… look at Ukraine… did that matter? Does that matter now? No, they keep upping the threat. The longer range weapons to blow the Crimean bridge up is coming, the F16s and their crews are coming, the longer range ATCAMS are coming…
“Last leg” …their legs or no leg don’t matter, until their heads are blown off this gets worse.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Feb 23 2024 17:29 utc | 26
I feel that the west was hoping to prod and entice Russia into over-extending itself.
Almost worked.
Initially, Russia was thinking a daring decapitation raid (a counter-coup), for which the Ukrainians would thank them. Seems like a case of bad intel.
Much to the West's frustration, the Ruskies saw the situation and re-thought / adapted - not fighting fair.
Posted by: jared | Feb 23 2024 17:31 utc | 27
My impression -- and it is not my area of expertise -- is that Russia made those early deep thrusts and surrounded those cities in the hope that the Ukrainian population would more side with them and that the Ukrainian government based on the Galicians and their ideology would fall. When that did not happen, they immediately reverted to Plan B, fall back to defensible lines in the more pro-Russian areas and go on the defensive. That worked well, because the Russians already had won merely by holding onto a considerable piece of Ukraine. The other point was that the Russians were not able to push the front inside the Donetsk Oblast back much, although the took the whole Lugansk Oblast. I think the Russians' plan now is to take the rest of the Donetsk Oblast, which would help protect the city of Donetsk, one of their main purposes in the first place. I think they would be satisfied with that, as far as territory goes. I very much doubt that Russia would go much farther into Ukraine. After all, it has been trying -- to the extent possible in a war -- not to alienate the large part of the population who speak mainly Russian and are potentially neutral, and too much military effort will not help that.
However, while a ceasefire seems at least conceivable, leaving a frozen conflict, an actual peace does not, because the sides are too far apart. any Ukrainian regime other than a Russian-installed one would not be able to give up so much of the national territory, and, while in exchange for Ukrainian neutrality Russia might be willing to negotiate down some of its annexations, that could not take place without sufficient guarantees to Russia that that neutrality would not just be a ruse and that nuclear missiles from NATO wouldn't be on Russia's doorstep the next day, especially as the US is utterly incapable of upholding any agreements it signs, ever, unless it is somehow compelled. And how do you compel a nuclear power anyway? Given the tenor of Ukrainian nationalism, I doubt that they would be willing to give up any territory, not even Donetsk and Lugansk; the most that could be hoped for from them would be to agree to Russia's annexation of Crimea, and that is not enough.
Posted by: Cabe | Feb 23 2024 17:33 utc | 28
In other news regarding Ukraine here is a good piece :
‘ Today marks 10 years since the events of the so-called Euromaidan that led to the unconstitutional coup d'etat in Ukraine.
Since 2014, under the supervision and with the direct guidance by the advisors from NATO & Western powers, Ukraine was transformed into an anti-Russian country at an accelerating pace.
The de-Russification and Ukrainization of the nations' cultural code was forced upon living in Ukraine, they were brainwashed, in effect re-educated in the spirit of hatred and hostility towards Russia and Russians, the memory of the common past awas all but erased, replaced by neo-Nazi sentiments.
Even the relatively recent 2014 events have been rewritten and retold by those in power in Kiev and their puppet masters in the West, facts were tossed away, truth twisted or omitted, the entire sequence of events turned upside down.
📺 Watch our brief video-journey, to jog your memory regarding the 2013-14 Euromaidan timeline and facts.
Source: https://t.me/MFARussia ‘
Lavrov also had some comments after the G20 meetings :
‘▪️The West's arrogance and accusations of Russophobia do not allow it to talk about negotiations on Ukraine, it does not want serious dialogue;
▪️Lavrov said he had no contacts with Western foreign ministers on the sidelines of the G20;
▪️Brussels and London are advising Kiev on how to further promote the "Zelensky formula".
@ukraine_watch
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses/48030 ‘
And the latest on NS2 - it is perfidious Brits and as Liz effing Truss the dumbest dumbo since Bozo to be PM of the U.K. crowed in her WhatsApp to the WH - ‘ ITS DONE’ - explained. Sy Hersh has been revealed for what he is. :
‘ An analytical report by the independent online publication Nordic Times concluded that “members of the British government” during the period when Liz Truss was Prime Minister were the most likely organizers of the bombing of the Nord Stream gas pipelines. According to this version, the explosion was carried out by a British special forces team operating from the British nuclear submarine HMS Ambush.
@Slavyangrad | Wiggims 👋 ‘
Ah well time to party this Friday- have a good evening wherever you are barflies.
Posted by: DunGroanin | Feb 23 2024 17:36 utc | 29
"Frankly Russia and China's best interests are served if this goes on beyond the US elections. I doubt Russia wants to push on the open door, rather (as b suggests) this will be a Ukrainian collapse. Much like the withdrawal from Afghanistan was a US collapse rather than a Taliban attack."
Posted by: Mickey Droy | Feb 23 2024 16:34 utc | 5
I think you hit the nail on the head.
Our source from the OP said that the Office of the President instructed the General Staff to transfer all accumulated reserves to the front line in order to hold off the enemy’s offensive and organize a demonstrative counter-offensive before the elections in Russia and at a time when the fate of the next loan for Ukraine is being decided in the United States (the first two weeks of March ). Zelensky, Ermak and Syrsky are going all-in.The price of this step is high, as it puts at stake the further possibility of defending the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but now it is important to demonstrate the offensive capabilities of the Ukrainian army.
Since it is important to receive an American loan of $60 billion, without this money Ukraine will not be able to conduct full-fledged military operations and will be forced to go on the defensive with a constant loss of territory.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/21789
Posted by: Down South | Feb 23 2024 17:38 utc | 31
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Front #Summary for 23 Feb 2024 by 18:42⚡️🔹In the #Kherson Direction, our forces pushed the AFU well, but the cleanup of the coastal zone and islands has not yet been completed.
📌 The AFU has moved from the stage of denial to acceptance. Ukrainian resources write that the AFU has not been faced with the task of an offensive for a long time, and a piece of land in #Krynki was held for the sake of "information effect".🔹In #Zaporozhye Direction, at #Rabotino, fierce battles are taking place. According to field reports, the AFU have clung to positions they have managed to fortify well since last summer and mine the approaches.
🔹In #SouthDonetsk Direction, after yesterday's breakthrough from the south to #Krasnogorovka, our forces continue to attack. Now ours are operating on the southern outskirts, what is, already in the town limits.
📌 This is the last major settlement near #Donetsk under AFU control. #Krasnogorovka, like #Avdeyevka, has been turned into a powerful fortified area since 2014, so the fighting will be difficult. From this area, the AFU are also shelling settlements of the #DPR.🔹In #Avdeyevka Direction, our army is attacking in several areas at once. Ours have liberated #Stepovoye! It is worth noting the tenacity of our fighters. Since October 2023, positions have changed hands, but ours went on new attacks and put the squeeze on the AFU. Now we have gained a foothold in the village, and the AFU have retreated to #Berdychi, 1.2 km to the west. There are successes of our forces in #Severnoye (on the the southern flank). The enemy claims that the village is completely under Russian control, but we are waiting for confirmation from our own. Ours advanced 0.5 km to the west of the plant (towards #Orlovka).
🔹In #Bakhmut Direction, our troops are fiercely attacking #Ivanovskoye (#Krasmnoye). Our armoured column entered the first streets. The AFU understand the threat and are trying to retake lost positions. A couple of hundred meters remain to the #Ivanovskoye - #Kleshcheyevka supply road, and when it is cut, the AFU can only supply their garrisons in #Kleshcheyevka and #Andreyevka only by dirt roads. Our drone operators and artillery help attacks on the ground and track down manpower and equipment in the rear of the AFU at "Chasov Yar".
🔹In #Svatovo Direction, our artillery and drone pilots are also active in the #Seversk sector. They hit positions and firing points of the AFU, and our formidable weapon, TOS Solntsepek, is also working. (⚠️the enemy reports on a repulsed Russian attack at #Belogorovka). In the #Liman sector, our forces have recaptured two strong points in the "Krugloy Beam", ours are leveling the frontline along the ledge in the Laptev Yar. In the #Kupyansk sector, ours also advanced a bit and gaining a foothold northeast of #Sinkovka. From the northern side, we are advancing in the village itself.
💥 In the #DPR's settlements, there are wounded again. Further AFU drones were shot down over three regions.
🎯 Our Forces carried out strikes on AFU targets in several regions at night. Preliminary, the targets were workshops for the production of surface and aerial drones, repairs, as well as locations.
https://t.me/sitreports/23459
Posted by: Down South | Feb 23 2024 17:39 utc | 32
Posted by: Trubind1 | Feb 23 2024 17:29 utc | 26
NATO volunteers are not going to replenish ukr losses, it would take the whole polish army to do that.
F16 are a joke and, yes, maybe they will end destroying/damaging the Crimea bridge and that would not change anything in the war, just a week of headlines in western news.
Posted by: Mario | Feb 23 2024 17:40 utc | 33
@DunGroanin | Feb 23 2024 17:36 utc | 29
Sy Hersh has been revealed for what he is.Yes, I believe so.
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 23 2024 17:42 utc | 34
"Ukraine was never supposed to win on the battlefield. it's the sanctions that were supposed to completely destroy the Russian state and topple Putin, because they did believe Russia was a failed state with the GDP of Italy. Just like Hitler they thought they could kick the door in and the whole rotten structure would collapse, except they are not even capable of giving a kick, so to speak, it's just financial, bureaucratic measures with the Ukrainians doing the physical part."
Posted by: abel | Feb 23 2024 17:23 utc | 24
Well put-the Western "intellectual incest" (TM) strikes once more.
Posted by: Down South | Feb 23 2024 17:38 utc | 31
I believe Zelensky is astoundingly stupid in misreading the political situation in the US. The money is not being held up because Ukraine is losing, or because it can't demonstrate any more offensive capability.
It is being held up over political issues within the US, namely the border, along with a faction of Republicans who don't want to spend any more money in an election year, which would only help Biden.
This sounds like an epic fuck-up.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 23 2024 17:45 utc | 36
Abel at #24, I'm in total agreement:
"Ukraine was never supposed to win on the battlefield. it's the sanctions that were supposed to completely destroy the Russian state and topple Putin..."
It's beyond my abilities, but we need to work out how long the US/NATO felt it would take for sanctions to weaken Russia politically and economically and how they thought this would translate into battlefield capabilities. Did they think of the economic effects completely overriding battlefield calculations, leading to an economic capitulation, or did they think of those effects as having a kind of attritive impact in their own right? b here does a good job of setting out a military timeline, but how it dovetails with sanctions in US/NATO planning is another story.
Posted by: dadooronron | Feb 23 2024 17:47 utc | 37
Another good review on Defender of the Fatherland Day where a light snow fell upon the troops and dignitaries present for Putin's laying wreaths at the Unknown Soldier monument in Moscow. One of the big differences unmentioned is Russian support for the SMO versus the lack thereof in Ukraine. Support from the Home Front is the most critical factor in soldier morale. Next to that is rotation for R&R. It was noted that the main Ukie unit at Avdeevka was never rotated out and remained there throughout since the SMO's beginning. That leads to critical battle fatigue that increases the probability of breaking--ceasing the ability to continue fighting no matter how close the enemy. When the Russian's burst forth from "Nord Stream 3", the shocked Ukie units were paralyzed and immediately defeated, which started a domino-like affect that led to the retreat that became a rout.
There are now roughly six main actions happening along the FEBA. Where Russia's military will concentrate is known only to them and perhaps to NATO ISR people; we'll find out via battle reports. That more and more NATO troops are directly involved is known to Russia. I expect what few Ukie reserves remain are composed of them.
Another aspect that's escalating is the war against Russians within the EU and their property that's reaching Nazi levels in several nations. All that will do is further steel the resolve of Russian troops and increase the idea that those being fought are Germans/Nazis, not Ukrainians. What it tells Russia's leadership is Nazism wasn't destroyed in Europe after WW2 as intended, and that job must be finished once and for all time, and that will have crucial bearing on European politics for years to come.
@DunGroanin | Feb 23 2024 17:36 utc | 29
Sy Hersh has been revealed for what he is.
Yes, I believe so.
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 23 2024 17:42 utc | 34
I'm missing a beat-Sy Hersh claimed it was done by the Brits originally-he is being reveled as .....'right'?
“One has to make it absolutely clear: ten years of the [Ukraine] war teach us [that] those who mess with Russia end up either as Napoleon in 1812 or, even worse, as in 1945,” Matthias Moosdorf, a member of the German Bundestag’s Foreign Affairs Committee said, referring to Nazi Germany’s defeat at the hands of the Soviet Union and the Allied Forces.
Posted by: AI | Feb 23 2024 17:48 utc | 40
@canuck | Feb 23 2024 17:47 utc | 39
He claimed it was done by the (assistance of) Norwegian navy, no evidence ever produces.
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 23 2024 17:50 utc | 41
@MAKK 10
@marcel 17
thx
I have not checked the early Big Serge pieces
Posted by: AG | Feb 23 2024 17:51 utc | 43
:))) Hot girls are waiting for you on ----- https://shorturl.at/hlJXY
Posted by: Amella | Feb 23 2024 17:52 utc | 44
The reticsence /Zuurück-gewollenkei7 OF the Russian ARMY FORCES INTRUDING AGAINST KIEW AT THE TRET OF "THE SPECIAL MILITARY OPERATION" TWO YEARC´S E´HENCE WAS EXCEPLARY:
1: No civillians coílled in Bachmut- Fhe "dead2 ROSE UP AN WALKED AWAY. AFTER WHICH DEAD BODIES WERE LAID OUT. unfortiónately so orderly that one immediately knew it was trasgede.
My belief is thet US/Brit/Ukrainian services put out such improp´bable and falsereports just for the purpose of finding out who has guts to debunk their story.telling -- and thus locate ut´s as potential targets.
Any other explanations?
Posted by: T | Feb 23 2024 17:58 utc | 45
Didn't they take out the Ukr air force on the ground the first day?
A million thanks to all who post here. A refuge for Truth in a sea of lies.
Posted by: Bagration | Feb 23 2024 18:06 utc | 46
The recent Munich security meeting provided a platform for Ukraine true believers, with the announcement of Navalny’s demise incongruously providing a rallying point. While gnashing teeth over a lack of “seriousness” amongst leaders, hopes are being pinned on calls to purchase 500,000 artillery rounds identified by the Czech government as available on world markets, which would supposedly hold off the Russians until industrial chains provide more later in the year. By then the super-weapons - the long range missiles and fighter jets - will have arrived and Russia will be swiftly defeated.
More realistically, from a European perspective, diplomats spoke of:
“a ‘stabilization’ of the conflict. Pressed on what this would entail, the diplomats said it would mean nudging Kyiv to open negotiations with Putin to freeze the conflict and lock in current territorial gains, in exchange for Western “security guarantees” (such as those recently signed with France, the Netherlands and the U.K.) and a path to membership of the EU.”
A “path” to EU membership was supposedly what the “revolution” in 2014 was about. Ten years later…
Back to the future also informs NATO’s position. Mark Rutte describes a day-after situation which basically returns to December 2021: “we will also have to sit down with the US, within NATO, [and] collectively with the Russians to talk about future security arrangements between us and the Russians.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-russia-why-west-is-losing/
Posted by: jayc | Feb 23 2024 18:06 utc | 47
NATO will allow Ukraine to attack inside Russia with F-16s – Stoltenberg
I have insufficient vocabulary to describe this Quisling.
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 23 2024 18:10 utc | 48
RE: Posted by: Mario | Feb 23 2024 17:40 utc | 33
Poland is just one arena of NATO mercs, there are 1000s and 1000s everywhere. The NATO states, such as Germany, Latvia on and on will simply send them. No volunteer sign up, simply here’s your mission, wear this uniform and off you go.
It’s a pipe dream that this is not going to get worse.
And the one exuding this fallacy the most, is Russia.
They talk about being at war with NATO and the “collective West”, but even with them (with the exception of Medevev,), there’s no real reality check that they are in fact… at war.
Putin et el want to continue in their delusional West aligned soft as shit heads that the SMO victory will end in capitulation and everyone goes itheir merry way with an iron curtain drop and that’s the end. It’s delusional as the West delusion of breaking apart Russia and delivering a strategic victory. Both are deluded as f**k.
All this is resulting in, is NAZI Facist f**ks popping their heads out all over the world. Israel, Armenia, Argentina, Germany, Canada, US, Poland et el starting more and more wars. The smack down should’ve been hard, swift & unforgettable. But, here we are, where we started. Russia has occupation of 20% of Ukraine territory. Big deal. Changes nothing in the big picture.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Feb 23 2024 18:11 utc | 49
This sounds like an epic fuck-up.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 23 2024 17:45 utc | 36
Little Z is only an actor.
He learns his lines and spouts them when directed.
Posted by: jpc | Feb 23 2024 18:12 utc | 50
Some would say: “fine, let NATIO get slaughtered too then”,
Or say: “no they wouldn’t, cuz “NATO” is a farce, they ain’t got nothing “… look at Ukraine… did that matter? Does that matter now? No, they keep upping the threat. The longer range weapons to blow the Crimean bridge up is coming, the F16s and their crews are coming, the longer range ATCAMS are coming…
“Last leg” …their legs or no leg don’t matter, until their heads are blown off this gets worse.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Feb 23 2024 17:29 utc | 26
------------------
Nah, the number of sheep-dipped NATO mercs is less than willing Ukr volunters these days.
The AFU was NATO's best army bar none. On equal terms they'd kick the US or UK's ass with alacrity.
So EU-NATO really "don't got nothing" in an open war. The USA is geared for hegemonic seabased expeditionary warfare, against people who can't really fight back. They're not capable of a major longish-term land war like the SMO.
So after the Ukie cookies crumble, that really is it...
Posted by: Urban Fox | Feb 23 2024 18:26 utc | 51
Posted by: canuck @ 39
IIRC Hersh said it was the USA with Swedes or Norwegians or something like that, newest is that it was an all Brit operation. In retrospect I'm getting the impression, especially after the Zaluzhnyi/Syrskyi hubbub, that the USA had delegated the UKR thing to the staunch Brits and they fucked it up and the USA just fired the Brits.
Hersh is righteous but an old man, his world has passed, peeps on social media, blogs, youtube, and the peanut gallery here were all way out ahead of Hersh. But he did his part stirring up MSM zombies out of their torpor if only slightly. I apply the same thinking, world has passed, to Chomsky and COVID, his vax stance didn't invalidate his past virtue but it does his present. Time for new blood, it's out there but it's diffuse, maybe better that way, maybe worse. That no ideology, no leadership, human microphone thing didn't help the Occupy movements, nor the Gilet Jaune get much traction.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 23 2024 18:28 utc | 52
:))) Hot girls are waiting for you on ----- https://shorturl.at/hlJXY
Posted by: Amella | Feb 23 2024 17:52 utc | 44
The bodies are not even buried yet and you Gangster Ghoulz are already trafficking their widows. I suppose you sell the orphans on the Dark Net.
Eff Tu.
Don't pardon my French.
Thomas
Posted by: Thomas | Feb 23 2024 18:35 utc | 53
In the evening, bad news arrived. An A-50 AWACS aircraft was shot down over the Sea of Azov, and the vehicle crashed in the Krasnodar Territory. With a very high degree of probability this is a friendly fire again.The problem with the interaction of aerospace forces aviation and air defense units is obviously systemic, which leads to a fairly frequent loss of human lives and expensive and difficult to replace materiel.
Let me remind you that over the past month two aircraft were lost to enemy fire on the territory of the DPR.
Peace to the ashes of the dead.
Boris Rohzin
https://t.me/geromanat/20894
❗️Frame of the defeat of another A-50 of the Russian Aerospace Forces, which fell near the Trudovaya Armenia farm in the Kanevsky district of the Krasnodar Territory.The first video shows how the plane is desperately trying to avoid the attacks and shoots off heat traps, but anti-aircraft missiles still overtake it. Other videos show burning debris.
Despite the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have already taken responsibility for this, the location where the aircraft was hit leaves no other options other than friendly fire. Russian air defense literally destroys Russian aircraft in its rear over and over again.
It can be stated that interaction has completely failed, management has collapsed, and the “friend or foe” system does not exist as a phenomenon. We have nothing more to say.
Military Informant
https://t.me/geromanat/20890
Posted by: Down South | Feb 23 2024 18:35 utc | 54
Posted by: jpc | Feb 23 2024 18:12 utc | 50
I used to believe that but if true, then who’s pulling the strings? Would the Pentagon be so stupid as to play right into Russia’s hands by attempting a counteroffensive in the midst of declining stocks of men and ammo? Seems a lot smarter to do a tactical withdrawal and conserve men and ammo until the new money either does or doesn’t arrive.
Of course we have to take these reports with a grain or bag
of salt. I’m not thinking any of these reports in the media on what Russia or Ukraine is about to do in terms of military acts have much credibility. Remember when Russia was going to do a big arrow offensive last year? I think Ritter and Dima both got that wrong.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 23 2024 18:37 utc | 55
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 23 2024 18:10 utc | 48
NATO looks at the infamous red lines as a joke. NATO attacks deep into Russia and Putin bitchslap the Ukies as punishment.
Lots of sniggering all round.
Posted by: Surferket | Feb 23 2024 18:37 utc | 56
Posted by: tim rourke | Feb 23 2024 17:04 utc | 19
Russia will take Ukraine's profit center.
The Americans will walk away.
This leaves Ukraines' cost center for the European Union.
Posted by: Passerby | Feb 23 2024 18:42 utc | 57
the “friend or foe” system does not exist
Posted by: Down South | Feb 23 2024 18:35 utc | 54
---
The number of these reports give the impression that IFF has been spoofed or otherwise defeated.
Posted by: too scents | Feb 23 2024 18:42 utc | 58
https://t.me/fighter_bomber/15804
A-50 is lost.It is currently unknown who shot it down. All assumptions go to the garden.
But 256 km from the LBS...From this video it is clear that the crew had information that a missile was flying at them. They knew. They did what they could. What they should.
Eternal flight...
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 23 2024 18:43 utc | 59
A-50 is lost.It is currently unknown who shot it down. All assumptions go to the garden.
But 256 km from LBS...
From this video it is clear that the crew had information that a missile was flying at them. They knew. They did what they could. What they should.
Eternal flight...
Fighterbomber
Posted by: Down South | Feb 23 2024 18:44 utc | 60
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 23 2024 18:10 utc | 48Yes, painful to watch or read him. But he is only the mouthpiece of NATO. I have full trust in Jens' prognosis that Ukraine losing means the end of NATO. (I know it won't happen. But NATO is not doing well.)NATO will allow Ukraine to attack inside Russia with F-16s – Stoltenberg
I have insufficient vocabulary to describe this Quisling.
Posted by: Konami | Feb 23 2024 18:50 utc | 61
too scents@58
This seems a plausible explanation, but who and how? Not sure how easy it would be to re-engineer a system that is integrated into AD and aircraft if this is the case. Perhaps some of the personnel had time to bail. Hope so.
Of course shadowspammer shows up to crow about it...
Posted by: the pessimist | Feb 23 2024 18:54 utc | 62
@Robert
"The empire of death, deceit and delusions.....
Ain't Democracy great?"
The USA aren't a democracy.
Posted by: Apollyon | Feb 23 2024 18:54 utc | 63
This war is far from over. The theater will change. More "nato" involvement. As one of Simps videos has shown, the captive ukie, stating Canadian "Mercs" fighting along side ukies. You'll see more stories of "nato" peeps dying in mass. More "behind the lines, long range" into Russia to strike fear. Poland.. Tusk is itching for a bruising. Finland Baltics staging grounds, Turkey going to have to choose a side. etc... Economically, politically, the west needs a weak Russia.
The reason why Russia was never "Gung ho" against the ukie.. preserve for future, against other enemies.
Posted by: heavymetal101 | Feb 23 2024 18:56 utc | 64
[email protected] all suffer from Epstein's Syndrome.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 23 2024 18:58 utc | 65
by Norwegian | Feb 23 2024 18:10 utc | 48
NATO will allow Ukraine to attack inside Russia with F-16s – Stoltenberg
I have insufficient vocabulary to describe this Quisling.
A proper bastard, who has to live with such track-record tied to his name:
Jens Stoltenberg, a Norwegian politician who served as both the Prime Minister of Norway and the NATO Secretary General, faced criticism during his time in office. Some common negative opinions attributed to Stoltenberg include:Handling of the 2011 Norway Attacks: Stoltenberg faced scrutiny for his government's response to the terrorist attacks carried out by Anders Behring Breivik in 2011. Critics argued that there were lapses in the security and intelligence systems.
Economic Policies: Some critics were dissatisfied with Stoltenberg's economic policies, including concerns about taxation and government spending. The handling of economic issues during his tenure as Prime Minister led to disagreements and discontent among certain segments of the population.
NATO's Involvement: As the NATO Secretary General, Stoltenberg faced criticism for the alliance's actions and policies, particularly in relation to conflicts such as the Ukrainian crisis and the Syrian civil war. Some people disagreed with NATO's involvement in these situations.
Public Perception and Communication: Stoltenberg was at times criticized for his communication style and perceived lack of charisma. Some argued that he struggled to connect with the public and convey a strong leadership image.
Posted by: whirlX | Feb 23 2024 18:59 utc | 66
IIRC that's the 2nd A50 the RF lost. They had 6 or 7 I believe but the crew is the real value. If it was friendly fire I'll eat my hat, in fact I'll eat an entire haberdashery. Every time something big happens in the SMO it's always human error or friendly fire.
Other day supposedly RF threatened a French surveillance plane over the Black Sea and scared it off, this might just be a hard smack down for that. IMO early on the Moskva was sunk because it tried some EW stuff, it was refitted as an EW ship, on a western plane or drones. The USA wants to escalate, Russia does not, at some point that becomes untenable for Russia. Are we there yet?
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 23 2024 19:01 utc | 67
Unconfirmed but it looks like Ukraine shot down another A-50 :
https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1761085894818201664
Posted by: bored | Feb 23 2024 19:02 utc | 68
RE: So after the Ukie cookies crumble, that really is it...
Posted by: Urban Fox | Feb 23 2024 18:26 utc | 51
Perhaps. I’m not seeing it from my deck chair.
Nevertheless, there’s always been something “off” about the SMO. I spent 2 years believing all of the 90d Putin chess thing. But now… simply and solely analytically calculating the financial pieces… Nah… It’s hogwash.
The latest “500” new sanctions… and Russia counters with… nothing? Still sells gas, oil, uranium, grain, on and on to its “enemies”? Sure, a ruble, is a ruble… yank… but who believes that nonsense.
Russia has 150 million people… working, wage earning… 90 million tops?
Nope… sanctions from hell, yaddy yah, yup… SMO has smell indeed.
Another year or 2, as the SMO goes on and on, more truth and reality about it will be revealed, maybe. Ukraine is still far from being in crumbles.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Feb 23 2024 19:08 utc | 69
In the US on cable news channel CNN, their evening Out Front show for the last week has been a repeated rotation of stories on Navalny, Navalny's mother, other (payrolled) NGO friends of Navalny, the same snippets of arrests of a couple of Navalny protesters, the wife of Kara-Murza, those "Russian nuclear space weapons", fake Russian elections, Putin is responsible, blah, blah. Usually it's a constant rotation of stories and panelists discussing Trump, Trump, and Trump.
The problem for the West is that the whole world knows that Ukraine is lost and the two year anniversary is coming up. There's absolutely *nothing* positive they can show for it. Nothing.
Posted by: daffyDuct | Feb 23 2024 19:09 utc | 70
bored@68
The incident site is beyond the range of Ukrainian AD @ over 200km from the front. For this reason the cause is guessed to be FF. Not sure public clarity will be forthcoming.
Posted by: the pessimist | Feb 23 2024 19:10 utc | 71
NATO is thinking ahead taking out big military assets, those two landing ship would have been useful if the Kerch Bridge is take out, and even more useful if the Russians gain full control east of the Dnieper and decide to move south towards Odessa and Transnistria. Transnistria is about to ask Russia to annex it. With F16s soon coming into play the A50 are a problem.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 23 2024 19:11 utc | 72
Posted by: Trubind1 | Feb 23 2024 18:11 utc | 49
Having lost great part of the service man and quite a lot of weapons not to say infrestructural damage is the same as when ukr started?
You gimmi a good laugh.
Posted by: Mario | Feb 23 2024 19:11 utc | 73
If it was friendly fire I'll eat my hat
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 23 2024 19:01 utc | 67
---
"But 256 km from LBS..."
What AD missiles does Ukraine have with that reach?
Posted by: too scents | Feb 23 2024 19:11 utc | 74
@ 26. trubind1. and elsewhere.. there is some truth to what you say.. however, small incremental changes lead to big changes…. and i do believe russia continues to be in a stronger position with regard to nato.. we shall see over the course of the next 1 to 2 years who ultimately dominates all this.. i also agree with mario, it is not the propaganda war that russia is seeking to win, but the actual war, framed in a much larger context then many here consider..
Posted by: james | Feb 23 2024 19:13 utc | 75
too scents @ 74
What AD missiles does Ukraine have with that reach?
Whatever they haven't told you they have already sent there, why would they tell you? Really think about, all throughout the history of war, troop sizes, movements, and armaments have been top secret. So, now in the era of social media we in the peanut gallery are allowed to know everything? Digital democracy, it actually happened!
Everything from "only helmets and kevlar vests" to 3 HIMARS and 6 M777s to 12 Bradleys has been total BS. They send what they want, they inform you at the last minute or after the fact, two ys now, time to catch on to the game.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 23 2024 19:23 utc | 76
Well, I dont like to say it but nobody of you liked the "Hurrah" Crowd... sorry there are more of em than you can imagine :)
Posted by: Macpott | Feb 23 2024 19:23 utc | 77
This sounds good but haven't the retired U.S. military been off on their predictions? Russia still has a long way to go and U.S., NATO and many additional countries are pouring money, weapons, and personnel into this war.
Posted by: MiniMo | Feb 23 2024 19:24 utc | 78
If this is a chess game what piece does the A-50 constitute - messing with A-50's is messing with the queen. Or is someone going to jump in here to proclaim that A-50's aren't that important?
And whose move was this take down? Another check?
The pilots are "uncomfortable" no matter what.
The flight formation take down over Russian airspace last year.
And now two A-50's this year.
Posted by: Bye-bye A-50 | Feb 23 2024 19:29 utc | 79
US military officers have NOT fought a battle, let alone a war, against Russian regular forces. AND what they study at War College is an insipid concoction of opinions of German officers defeated by the Soviet Army. THEY have no idea about Soviet/Russian military doctrine as it applies to battlefields. Most Americans believe they won WWII…when, in fact, the Soviets did. Americans got a virtually free ride on Soviet coattails…!
The Russian military doctrine is so far ahead of NATO ideas about war that NATO cannot win a war against Russia but cannot even assess what is required to win a war against Russia.
There are so many weaknesses in NATO that listing the most significant ones constitutes a laborious process. NATO relies on air supremacy, not superiority. NATO without air supremacy is nothing. But NATO has lost the war before the war begins… NATO has virtually no military industrial capacity. NATO has few standards for military equipment; case in point, Abram, Leopards, Challenger tanks do not have the same engines, guns, spare parts… This makes fielding those tanks logistically complex. Just the ammo issues are insane. Challenger tanks have rifled guns while Abrams and Leopards have smooth bore… They may be same caliber but use DIFFERENT ammos. THZT is just the tip of the iceberg.
Training wise NATO land warfare training is inferior to Russian training. The results are consistent NATO failures as we saw in Ukraine.
Then there is the combat availability of NATO equipment. It is not capable of matching Russian weapons. Has NATO officers known and understood the above — and much more — they would have spared Ukraine the irreplaceable losses it incurred without any chance of achieving success.
NATO is incompetent, incoherent, and incapable of winning a war with Russia, the very country NATO countries are supposed to be prepared to face on the battlefield.
Posted by: Liberator | Feb 23 2024 19:30 utc | 80
And now two A-50's this year.
Posted by: Bye-bye A-50 | Feb 23 2024 19:29 utc | 79
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All weapons systems are consumables.
Posted by: too scents | Feb 23 2024 19:32 utc | 81
"This is our best chance, maybe the last this generation, to inflict pain on Russia at the cost to us of only paper and metal. We should give Ukraine every material support to allow them to strike deep into the rear, hit their refineries, hit their ports, hit the Kerch bridge, hit their command and control, hit their airbases. Russia should suffer a strategic defeat and be seen by the World to have suffered a strategic defeat. To this end we should provide long range strike systems to Ukraine, weapon systems that we have already forward deployed and could easily transfer. All we need is the political will to do so".
Boris Johnson, August 2023.
Posted by: copy past | Feb 23 2024 19:33 utc | 82
There are things that are associated with summer, winter or the character of US politics (there is no need to differentiate between domestic and foreign policy here).
Co-operation and peaceful coexistence are the consequence of the thinking of people who don't want to be constantly looking over their shoulders.
American self-realisation knows no bounds, even if the costs have to be borne by others.
US politics acts like cancer, which also shows no consideration for its host.
It extends its influence wherever possible.
Yeltsin and Gorbachev had no fears, however.
When Putin arrived, Ukraine was already a state in its own right.
The focus here was now on co-operation, the exchange of goods, energy discount prices, etc.
Apparently this led to a feeling of security, based on rational expectations.
However, there have already been several colour revolutions in Ukraine.
A "Maidan" could never have been ruled out in advance.
When it happened in 2013/2014, no direct influence was exerted to support the government apparatus.
When the rebels had almost solved the problems themselves, Moscow pushed for Minsk1/2 l, which maintained the situation to Russia's disadvantage.
Again many years later, in 2022, Russia decided to take action against the situation.
It was also foreseeable that the fight against terminal cancer would cause major problems.
It was clear to me that it would mean huge losses of life and destruction.
However, I assumed an appropriate number of soldiers on Russia's side.
If you look at the number of troops provided by Russia, it is only now gradually levelling out in terms of numbers.
The following questions arise:
Was there any discussion in Russia about intervening in 2014?
If so, then a decision was apparently made not to intervene.
If this presumed decision were to be made again based on today's findings, then I still cannot see the advantages.
However, Putin recently expressed regret about the hesitation.
Putin wanted to be politically correct, to comply with the law.
But his "partners" are not abiding by it.
Ukraine was turned into a whore by the West. These ties will not be loosened by themselves.
He should have asked former GDR citizens who can be trusted in the West.
The following documentary gave me an idea of the effort required for "liberation".
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wMMXuKB0BoY&pp=ygUUVmljZSB1a3JhaW5lIGRvbmJhc3M%3D
Of course, it is also one thing to be able to consistently threaten war.
Reorganising the economy, calling up ... At what cost?
So if you're so far gone that you have to threaten, then follow through straight away. Then the costs were not wasted and the desired result is assured.
Especially as nothing can be contractually agreed with the West.
Posted by: 600w | Feb 23 2024 19:36 utc | 83
"Never had a chance.
A nation destroyed.
500,000+ dead humans and counting.
The empire of death, deceit and delusions.....
Ain't Democracy great?
Posted by: Robert | Feb 23 2024 16:13 utc | 2
Yeah... well we're now up to about 80 regime change attempts, many of them successful.
And in terms of the dead attributable to the US, we've now hit about 22 million since World War II according to various sources.
And counting. I would add about 30,000 Palestinians to that toll.
Posted by: David G Horsman | Feb 23 2024 19:37 utc | 84
I'll just leave this here without further comment.
"In the long run, wars make us safer and richer."
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 23 2024 19:41 utc | 85
RE: “Having lost great part of the service man and quite a lot of weapons not to say infrestructural damage is the same as when ukr started?”
You gimmi a good laugh.
Posted by: Mario | Feb 23 2024 19:11 utc | 73
That’s through the lens of a Big Shark in a small pond, when in reality, it’s a small fish in an ocean.
Never mind, have your laugh on me… I’m ok with that 🍺
Posted by: Trubind1 | Feb 23 2024 19:44 utc | 86
too scents @ 81
All weapons systems are consumables
Intelligence assets are not consumables but very valuable and often not replaceable, it's the men not the machines, and building new A50s is no trivial task. NATO plan is obviously to conteats the air space over Ukraine, that is their last hope for a "counter counter-offensive", it's either that or surrender, which is not going to happen.
Maybe RF can buy them from China. China will have to step up soon, guess that's part of the USA plan too, pressure and bait, pressure and bait.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 23 2024 19:44 utc | 87
Intelligence assets are not consumables but
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 23 2024 19:44 utc | 87
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Oh please. The A50 is an IL76 with a fancy radio. They built about 1000 IL76 airframes and they have factories where they make radios.
The Russians also have a new utility drone based on the AN2 easily capable of flying a radar.
Posted by: too scents | Feb 23 2024 19:51 utc | 88
Unconfirmed but it looks like Ukraine shot down another A-50 :
https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1761085894818201664
Posted by: bored | Feb 23 2024 19:02 utc | 68
Go on, tell yourselves that this is all part of a great big plan, fake news, etc..
Russia needs to stop dithering and decide whether it is going to fight this war or not.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Feb 23 2024 19:53 utc | 89
Sorry, but I don’t buy friendly fire in the shoot-downs of the A-50s. When have the Russians EVER fired on an AWACS style aircraft, except presumably their own? The Russians have never even fired on Global Hawks, the destruction of which wouldn’t even threaten western personnel.
No, the Russians are just eating the loss and pretending it is an accident so they don’t have to respond. I get that they want to avoid escalation, but escalation is going to happen anyway. Failure to respond guarantees it.
And here I thought Putin understood how street fights worked. Or maybe in St Petersburg you can be sucked-punched by your adversary but it will all just blow over if you walk away and pretend it didn’t happen. That’s absolutely not the way street fights work in the US. You offer your back to an opponent in an American street fight and you will get wasted. 100% guaranteed.
Posted by: William Gruff | Feb 23 2024 19:54 utc | 90
It seems to me that objectively, in terms of the correlation of forces, the initial attack in the Kiev direction was a distraction with a low-probability, high payoff potential to end the war quickly. The fundamental element of analysis is whether the Russians understood the USUK plans when they made their own plans, and I think the evidence shows that they did- since 2007 at least.
Once we understand that the US understood that by 2018 the opportunity to 'bleed Russia' and topple Putin with sanctions was pretty much passed, the US war aim considered defeating Russia a secondary goal- nice if possible, but unlikely. The primary goal was to isolate the west from the emerging BRICS economy, subjugate Europe and devour its manufacturing capability, and turn EU into a captive market for US energy and, later, manufacturing. A war with Russia is a lever to move Euro-peons into a new cold war, impoverish them, and make them dependent on the US for everything.
In this context, one way of defeating the US plan against Europe would be an immediate surrender of Kiev- but this was clearly unlikely with the resources available, and with the knowledge that the US would have to approve that defeat if Kiev itself was not occupied, and perhaps even then. Worth a shot, though, because it completely bolloxed the planned Uke offensive into Donbass. When it failed, the Russians wasted no time going to plan B- they didn't have to figure it out, it was always the likely way the war would be conducted.
Russia had created a powerful economic defense with its partners in China and elsewhere, and really couldn't be defeated by Ukraine unless they undertook some really stupid Big Arrow drives to Lvov while Ukraine still had AD resources and major mobile formations. The war of attrition was the obvious way to defeat Ukraine- even though it empowered the US plan against Europe. Oh well, that has problems also, as we are seeing in the ME.
US will probably succeed in primary objectives, but in longer term context, they are very vulnerable.
Posted by: Honzo | Feb 23 2024 19:55 utc | 91
james @ 9
Your insight is correct and basically always correct. We can always use the reminder that the warmongers and wargods are busy stuffing their pockets.
Nevertheless do not underestimate the enormous support this conflict has. Russia is The Enemy and hs been my entire life, and longer. Ukrainian-Americans and Ukrainian-American Jews are organized and have more than just influence. Most Americans have no concept whatever of geography or history. Those who do know a little and have an agenda can lead the rest around by the nose. I cannot state with certainty who wants what, my observation is the Ukrainians are batshit insane with hatred of Russia. Jews here are passionate about achieving something or other in 404. New Israel? I don't know, I just know they are possessed. Like a dog with a bone and they aren't letting go.
Posted by: oldhippie | Feb 23 2024 19:58 utc | 92
The A50 was reportedly shot down in the Kanevsky district of the Krasnodar Territory of Russian Federation.
If in fact the Ukrainians shot that thing down in that location, then it seems to me the NATO AWACS airplanes which operate in similar distant locations from the battlefield are fair game for the Russians.
Posted by: Johnny Dollar | Feb 23 2024 20:04 utc | 93
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Feb 23 2024 16:52 utc | 13
##############
No True Scotsman is always a weak position to start an argument from.
As we can see in Ukraine, "democracy" is a veneer for corruption, shielding from accountability, and psychopathy.
Its degraded reputation is well-deserved. It doesn't conform to human nature.
The older forms of government emerged with human nature in mind. And as we've seen, human nature is so strong that the Russians and the Chinese have both adopted forms of democracy that function like a benevolent autocracy because those are the only circumstances with a good track record for human flourishing.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 23 2024 20:04 utc | 94
Like a dog with a bone and they aren't letting go.
Posted by: oldhippie | Feb 23 2024 19:58 utc | 92
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They are more like dogs that all want to piss on the same tree.
Posted by: too scents | Feb 23 2024 20:04 utc | 95
William Gruff @ 90
Maybe they know what's coming, that the USA is dead set on WW3, and Russia and her allies China and Iran need time. USA is on a timeline with regards to China, they think they can take it down but it has to be down much faster than they 7-10ys they calculated a decade ago. It's all I can figure out, like the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact that freaked out the communist international, Stalin was buying time.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 23 2024 20:05 utc | 96
"Ours have liberated #Stepovoye! It is worth noting the tenacity of our fighters. Since October 2023, positions have changed hands, but ours went on new attacks and put the squeeze on the AFU. Now we have gained a foothold in the village..."
https://t.me/sitreports/23459
Posted by: Down South | Feb 23 2024 17:39 utc | 32
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So wait. Did the Russians take the village or "get a foothold"? There is a long, long, longitty, long-long history of claiming to take Stepove and not having done it.
Doesn't mean it hasn't or won't happen. But give me visual confirmation or both sides saying it. Not some random Telegram channel (where we have had false reports of Stepove falling for months!)
Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 23 2024 20:05 utc | 97
5....Putin has said he withdrew the convoy during the peace talks as gesture of goodwill....but as they were sabotaged most likely not willing to risk them afterwards due to the newly raised morale maybe Ukr was now Nato " backed".
Posted by: Jo | Feb 23 2024 20:06 utc | 98
@William Gruff | Feb 23 2024 19:54 utc | 90
The question is what weapons system does Ukraine possess that has a range of ~150 miles (250km) that can strike an air target? Only the S400 AD system has this advertised range. If it was IFF spoofing then with what asset and by whom? The video shows the release of many flares to confuse IR seekers - to no avail. It's a mystery, as the last incident remains. The Russian MOD does not release information about these cases and the Ukrainians claim many things, many of which are false or cannot be verified.
Posted by: the pessimist | Feb 23 2024 20:10 utc | 99
Does one wonder if the final final redline no going back is the seizure of the 300b that migjt stop the continuing sales to the west eg uranium...as truebind has noted,???
We already know the gas transit through Ukraine will not be renewed .
Posted by: Jo | Feb 23 2024 20:15 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
One thing about the $60B package being successfully fought off by the House. You can’t print ammo.
Even if it eventually passes, or more likely a reduced version passes, that won’t translate to instant help on the ground. A bunch of contracts will be awarded the MIC, who will then take their customary grift tax by spreading around the money to all 50 states. Maybe in 2025 or later the actual weapons might arrive. The Army is already talking about having to cut into critical defense stocks if they don’t get a supplemental.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 23 2024 16:13 utc | 1