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February 17, 2024
The Ukrainian Art Of Coping

The facts (machine translation):

The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to withdraw troops from Avdiivka. DeepState writes about the capture of the Russian coke plant and "9 quarter" – Strana, Feb 17 2024

Deputy commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Maxim Zhorin said that as of 13 hours on February 17, the operation to withdraw troops from Avdiivka is still ongoing.

He stated this in his Telegram channel.

"Leaving Avdiivka was the right and logical decision. But very difficult to implement. The overall situation in this area is difficult, and very difficult battles are waiting for us ahead, " Zhorin said.

The Ukrainian military public DeepState confirms the capture of the Avdiivka Coke plant and 9 Kvartal by the Russians.

Thus, judging by the map published by the resource, almost all of Avdiivka has already come under the control of the Russian Federation. The new front line runs east of Lastochkino.

Earlier, the Russians published a video about the Avdiivka City Administration and the City Council.

It is located near the area of high-rise buildings "9 quarter" and is already under the control of the Russian Federation.

Also, Russian telegram channels publish a video of the installation of the Russian flag, allegedly over one of the buildings of the Avdiivka Coke plant.

Now comes Ukrainian art of 'coping' with the its utter defeat:

Air defence forces down 3 Russian aircraft in Ukraine's east this morning – Pravda.ua, Feb 17

Details: It is noted that two Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers and one Su-35 fighter were shot down.

—

Zelenskyy: For death of one Ukrainian, there are seven Russians in Avdiivka – Pravda.us, Feb 17

Quote from Zelenskyy: "I cannot tell you the number of casualties we have. For example, in Avdiivka, I have just compared the numbers – it’s one to seven.

—

We gave worthy fight in Avdiivka – Сommander of 3rd Assault Brigade – Pravda.ua, Feb 17

Quote: … "We are retreating to prepared positions to come back and strike back even harder. I am grateful to the command for their balanced decision. The battle continues."

There are of course no facts to support any of the above cope claim. There are lots of counter-factuals that which make it unlikely that any of those claims are true.

Posted by b on February 17, 2024 at 14:55 UTC | Permalink
Comments

Well deserved victory. Hopefully it will alleviate some pressure from Donetzk itself. Another annoying Su-35 loss but glad that the pilots are well.

Posted by: JamesBond | Feb 17 2024 15:04 utc | 2

Zero planes were shot down and there were 10 dead ukies to every Russian. My sources confirm. pfft

Posted by: nook | Feb 17 2024 15:06 utc | 3

Harpies and Sirens is all the Western press has left.
Their shrieking is ridiculous.

Posted by: too scents | Feb 17 2024 15:06 utc | 4

Washington seems to have cleverly made the Euros the bagholders for the tragedy of The Ukrainian Civil War. My guess is the War Party will want the bloodshed to last until mid-2025 at least.
Expect to see analysis thereafter on how the EU hopelessly failed without Washington‘s leadership. (Sic)

Posted by: Exile | Feb 17 2024 15:06 utc | 5

My guess is the War Party will want …
Posted by: Exile | Feb 17 2024 15:06 utc | 5
—
Their bucket has a hole in it. My guess is the market breaks late summer with no bid.

Posted by: too scents | Feb 17 2024 15:11 utc | 6

Posted by: Exile | Feb 17 2024 15:06 utc | 5
Interesting take here. Since Ukraine defeat is already conveyed in MSM, and the narrative is to blame the Republicans for ‘lack of funding’, it’s in Biden and democrat interest to speed up Ukraine’s defeat ASAP to help in the election.

Biden regime wants to see Ukraine losing in high speed now – they will try to blame Republicans and Europe for the debakel – and hope that case will be forgotten or at least successfully blamed on everyone except Biden and his criminal gang to gain some points for the elections.
We will see a very fast collapse of “Ukraine” in the coming months – if not even weeks. Europe will try to save face and so send in some symbolic aid.
Ukraine had played its role in that dirty game to cut Europe off cheap Russian energy and food.
Stupid NATO shills still trying to save that shit club.
It wont help – the World saw what a clown club that is.
Last chance for Europe is – to get its shit together and unite with EURASIA – or it will sink like Ukraine – after being used by US and thrown away like an old condom.
“>https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1758870602201354666

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 17 2024 15:12 utc | 7

In the meantime, the uSS regime continues gaslighting the public by stating numerous times even today again at the MSC that Ukraine is winning.

Posted by: AI | Feb 17 2024 15:16 utc | 8

I’m so old that I remember when people at this bar were telling us how Avdeevka would take months of grinding. (Indeed it did take a decade, but that’s not what they were talking about.)
If you graph the mathematics of attritional war – even when both sides are experiencing relatively equal losses – there is a divergence point where the side without the ability to replace losses goes exponential in terms of the effect of losses. We know that the losses are not equal in this case; we also know that both sides don’t have the same ability to replace losses (human or material). The actual divergence point in graphing the Ukraine conflict probably happened a while ago but it wasn’t obvious.
Now it’s undeniable. And as I’ve said on another thread, those glide bomb kits mean a level of air superiority at the LoC that’s vastly different than anything seen in the conflict to date. Defensive lines less well prepared than Avdeevka are going to be carnage. From here the momentum is going to build. Russian gains are going to increase in both scope and speed. Ukrainian retreats will become more chaotic and damaging. The only real question now is how long Zelensky and General 200 can hold things together, because the window for a cascading string of failures leading to outright collapse is getting bigger fast. The secondary question is to what degree Russia will push to exploit breaks on the front.

Posted by: Lex | Feb 17 2024 15:21 utc | 9

God willing this will mean fewer shells on shops and houses in Donetsk itself.
Way back, when Bakhmut was still peaceful (there was a cam looking over the square by the Palace of Culture), there used to be a few pro-Ukraine youtube feed sites showing webcams from Donbass – I was always surprised Russia didn’t shut the ones under their control, as you could see military vehicles in the streets and soldiers in the shops. Donetsk cams often had loud booms and I could never distinguish incoming from outgoing, but I hoped that the soldiers came home safe at night.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Feb 17 2024 15:29 utc | 10

Is this fake news?
What a surprise! Just yesterday the Finnish state broadcasting company YLE assured me that General Steiner’s 3rd Assault Brigade “Azov” is in full control of Avdeevka.
Is this Russian propaganda, or are you seriously suggesting that the Finnish state media is lying to me?

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Feb 17 2024 15:29 utc | 11

Avdeevka – Chasov Yar – Toretsk?
So, having considered the possible development of the situation in the Donetsk direction after the liberation of Avdeevka, it would be correct to look at the strategic prospects for operations on the territory of the DPR as a whole (including its northern regions).
In fact, the further movement of our troops (especially after we took control of the Avdeevsky coking plant without a fight) further to Ocheretino opens up good prospects for us precisely on this section of the front.
Movement through Ocheretino and Novokalinovo, respectively, to the north and northwest allows us not only to reach the flank and rear of the enemy’s Toretsk group, but also to move here along the watershed (without crossing ANY RIVERS). This is especially important during the period of mud, which has already arrived here. And also, no less important, that our units will have to move from top to bottom all the way to Druzhkovka.
At the same time, if at the same time we manage to break through the enemy’s defenses in the Chasov Yar area, then there are brilliant prospects for organizing a large cauldron for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Toretsk area.
But for this, first of all, you need to take Ocheretino. As for Chasov Yar, the task of liberating it, as we see from the reports of recent weeks, is also on the agenda.
And therefore, I think, it is by no means accidental, this morning our Aerospace Forces transferred the entire brunt of the “cast iron” attacks they were inflicting from Avdeevka to the Chasov Yar area.

https://t.me/geromanat/20207

Avdeevka – a new reality: the situation at 16.00 02/17/24
So, the “fog of war” around yesterday’s tectonic shifts (the flight of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the city) in this area gradually dissipated and the operational situation for the moment began to become clearer.
The enemy as a whole (but with heavy losses) withdrew his group from Avdeevka, including Koksokhim, and is trying to build his new line of defense along Berdychi-Orlovka-Lastochnikovo-Severny. Moreover, our units, realizing that while he is confused, we can get good starting conditions for future offensive operations, presses him in the Lastochkino area, where, if successful, we can go to the rear of enemy units in the Severny area and thereby force him to retreat to Thin.
We should also expect our attacks in the Stepovoy area on Berdychi in order to push the enemy out of the ravine and thereby create the preconditions for a further attack to the north (to Novokalinovo and Ocheretino).
We wait until the evening. I think closer to night the situation (and the effectiveness of today’s battles) will become even clearer.

https://t.me/geromanat/20208

Posted by: Down South | Feb 17 2024 15:30 utc | 12

Ряд источников сообщают о продвижении российских войск на Работинском направлении и потере противником ряда опорных пунктов. Результаты будут ясны ближе к ночи.
A number of sources report the advance of Russian troops in the Rabotyn direction and the loss of a number of strongholds by the enemy. The results will be clear closer to night.
t.me/boris_rozhin/113320

Posted by: chop | Feb 17 2024 15:33 utc | 13

Posted by: Lex | Feb 17 2024 15:21 utc | 9
Obviously, if you assume all else equal, the side with more resources and firepower will start taking less losses over time, compared to the side with less resources. Because over time, the total firepower directed of the side with more firepower and resources will increase compared to the total firepower left of the weaker side, which will cause casualties to go up on the weaker side. Or another way, more fire is focused on a single unit on the weaker side, and less firepower is focused on a single unit of the stronger side. That is why attrition is slow early, and should accelerate over time.
To compensate this, the weaker side can implement terrain, well organized layered defense, shorter supply lines, and front lines. AFU did nothing of sorts, they made another, effective counter-attack attempt immediately west of Avdeevka which accelerated the decay curve more than it would otherwise have been.
Thereafter, apply the level of training, command and control, tactics and logistics to both sides. Most likely every area favors Russian army more than the Ukrainian army.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 17 2024 15:33 utc | 14

The empire will escalate. Probably. But I hope not. I hope, the death Navalny is enough of distraction for them.

Posted by: Tortuosit | Feb 17 2024 15:34 utc | 15

Zelensky will soon announce that Avdiivka is of so little strategic value that it is pointless for Russia to seize it, and that the purpose of the Ukrainian military was to force the Russians to consume valuable resources in the first place.

Posted by: CIROC | Feb 17 2024 15:36 utc | 16

Posted by: Lex @ 9
Russia has drones coming up that will carry FABs, big, expensive drones, but a whole lot cheaper than a fighter-bomber, getting the FABs on target at less risk is a force multiplier.
https://youtu.be/j8WLYzA0lCs?t=37
The TG channel Fighterbomber says maybe 1 SU-35 down, no pilots hurt. They’d lose all their cred if they were to lie over such things, so it’s probably true.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 17 2024 15:45 utc | 17

@ Les, 9

I’m so old that I remember when people at this bar were telling us how Avdeevka would take months of grinding.

It did take months of grinding—nearly a year, in fact. Russia was sending out advance sorties against Avdeevka since early last Spring, and the current all-out assault on Avdeevka began back in November, with a massive increase in artillery barrages.

Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Feb 17 2024 15:45 utc | 18

Slowly at first, then all at once.
This development is welcome, denazification must be completed so people can be free.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 17 2024 15:47 utc | 19

Call the Ukrainian Army defeat what it is, lest we allow the West to spin their propaganda.
The Ukrainian Army have been routed and they are fleeing in disarray,running from the battlefield and leaving their wounded where they fell.
Spread this truth, let this defeat and the running from the battlefield be known even in the UK and US. It may wake up some sleeping westerners still calling for more war.

Posted by: Routed and in darray | Feb 17 2024 15:52 utc | 20

YetAnotherAnon@10…..and now you know why civilians, being to close to soldiers and their vehicles, are dying in Donetsk….for every civilian indiscriminately killed by Ukraine shells landing in civilian areas, what were the losses of those soldiers shopping in those civilian shops. Demonized Propaganda, they all fucking do it.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 17 2024 16:00 utc | 21

Reality sure is demolishing all the Biden and US media myths, no?
Several months ago, I speculated that Biden had lain the groundwork for his exit strategy by including the Ukrainian military aid in the bill to extend government operations during the debt debate. His strategy was to blame the Republicans for failing to fund the war, which would then be the cover story for defeat.
He’s now doing exactly the same thing, so, counter to the accepted wisdom that Biden and Dems are fighting hard to the $60 billion, they know it won’t get through the House and can now blame Trump and his Republican friends.

Posted by: bil wolfe | Feb 17 2024 16:11 utc | 22

@ bil wolfe | Feb 17 2024 16:11 utc | 22
Orange boy will approve the $60-70bn to Ukr if given as a loan. This delay was also meant to get more money from euroidiots and it worked. Only yesterday, the macaron and the offended sausage greatly increased the gifts for Ukr for 2024. In the end, +100bn a year is pocket change, pfuzer alone had profits of more than half of this amount.
Also Ursula, based on her previous highly successful pfuzer buying scheme, announced plans to take control over weapons deals for the entire EU. The project will start “in a few weeks”.

Posted by: rk | Feb 17 2024 16:20 utc | 23

Apparently some AFU support units were defeated in Rabotyne. The line in that direction is moving north.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 17 2024 16:25 utc | 24

sean the leprechaun | Feb 17 2024 16:00 utc | 21
I’ve watched a number of videos of the aftermath of nazi strikes an market places and so forth in Donetsk. Mostly by western journalists. I’ve never seen a uniformed body or casualty in those strikes. Women, children, and old people.
Contrast that to Ukraine claims of strikes on civilians. They never show the victims. Could that be because these innocent civilians just happen to be wearing combat fatigues and are nearly all male?

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 17 2024 16:25 utc | 25

@7
US has long experience and talent at pursuing “sunk cost fallacies”.
The pivotal event was 2016 Ms Clinton’s handlers underestimated the necessary ballot fraud and Trump won. That delayed the offenses against Donbas four years.
In that time preparations were made that ruined the neocon plan.
Entire neocon adventure since 2021 is good money after freshly printed bad fiat.

Posted by: paddy | Feb 17 2024 16:26 utc | 26

I’ve seen some pretty funny euphemisms for retreat in the last day or two. Western media just cant bring itself to write the “r” word. I think Gil D may be right: the Brits probably poisoned Navalny themselves just to distract attention from the debacle in Adiveeka.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Feb 17 2024 16:29 utc | 27

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 17 2024 16:00 utc | 21
Ukraine has been killing citzens in Donetsk since well before the SMO began

Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 17 2024 16:31 utc | 28

Ukraine Weekly Update, 16th Feb 2024: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-d90

Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Feb 17 2024 16:37 utc | 29

Avdeyevka liberation might be the same, lowering morale and a military capability, a springboard, enabling a wide and deep Russian advance. A bit of a reminder on what Stalingrad was to the West/Nazis in 1943/44. Currently 4 spare armies in Zaporozhye only.
I think that RF said that around 100 km buffer is desirable from the Russian property. Go calculate yourself. Nobody never listens to Russians. How speedy it’ll be, we shall see.

Posted by: whirlX | Feb 17 2024 16:54 utc | 30

I hope the Russians in Avdeevka have the juice left to keep pushing the the Ukies back, so they can’t even establish a new line of defense. Keep pushing, keep them on the back foot. Make this a debacle that Ukraine can’t recover from, even a little.

Posted by: Mike R | Feb 17 2024 17:03 utc | 31

Weeb Union one hour ago
100% Of Avdiivka Captured | New Zaporizhzhia Offensive? | Pokrovsk or Konstantynivka?
10 mins https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWD4nkf3_4A

Posted by: Don Firineach | Feb 17 2024 17:07 utc | 32

“Coping” is a term invented by neo Nazi leaning racists in places like boards.4chan.org/co/. Putin claims of “denazification” ring completely phony when the kind of Nazi who’d use terms like “cope” rally behind him.

Posted by: Inka | Feb 17 2024 17:08 utc | 33

US has long experience and talent at pursuing “sunk cost fallacies”.
Entire neocon adventure since 2021 is good money after freshly printed bad fiat.
Posted by: paddy | Feb 17 2024 16:26 utc | 26
The first line is only true if you think the ‘US’ consists of the interests of its citizens. The last line shows that it isn’t. Not only does US policy pursue marginal ROI with ‘other people’s money,’ it pursues ‘failed’ policies with the same resource, to the profit of the real owners of the system. I think it would be healthy for people to stop using simple national designations in any argument. “The leadership of (nation x)” is a more appropriate way to speak, and would prevent nonsense conflations of the interests of the masses of a country with the interests of their ruling, and controlling, elites.

Posted by: Honzo | Feb 17 2024 17:11 utc | 34

Avdiivka, Longtime Stronghold for Ukraine, Falls to Russians
With Ukraine’s forces at risk of encirclement, the top military commander ordered a retreat. In startlingly candid accounts, soldiers described disarray and despair.
https://nytimes.com/2024/02/17/world/europe/ukraine-avdiivka-withdraw-despair.html

Posted by: daffyDuct | Feb 17 2024 17:11 utc | 35

Posted by: Inka | Feb 17 2024 17:08 utc | 33
Russia’s plan to get rid of neonazis in Ukraine has fuck all to to with how the word coping is used by some organization in the US.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 17 2024 17:25 utc | 36

Getting out of Avdiivka
1) Guy with US flag on helmet at the beginning
2) At 00:14, a Nazi Eagle patch.
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1758426138542555458?s=20

Posted by: daffyDuct | Feb 17 2024 17:27 utc | 37

Is this fake news?
What a surprise! Just yesterday the Finnish state broadcasting company YLE assured me that General Steiner’s 3rd Assault Brigade “Azov” is in full control of Avdeevka.
Is this Russian propaganda, or are you seriously suggesting that the Finnish state media is lying to me?
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Feb 17 2024 15:29 utc | 11
————
Sgt Steiner would’ve done them more good, Cross of Iron was a passably good movie after all.
Even if it was far too generous to the Wehrmacht…

Posted by: Urban Fox | Feb 17 2024 17:30 utc | 38

Vovcha river, here we come!
The small settlements in between the current front line and the river will not be defendable with few if any prepared positions. Digging new positions in the cold mud while being bombarded with FPV, artillery and FAB500 is not an enviable task.
Looking at Militaryland map, there are no real spare flanking reserves to counterattack. The ones that are there are defending the flanks, if they move to the center, then Russia simply overwhelms the flanks.
It is a lose-lose proposition without moving 12 km to the west to a river and lake system for defense.

Posted by: BroncoBilly | Feb 17 2024 17:31 utc | 39

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Front #Summary for 17 Feb 2024 by 18:10⚡️
🔹In #Kherson Direction, without changes.
🔹In #Zaporozhye Direction, on the #Rabotino – #Verbovoye line, counterbattery fighting. On the ground, our forces are clearing the defence landings.
🔹In #SouthDonetsk Direction, our army is advancing in #Novomikhaylovka. However, the position of the advanced units are still in the “fog of war”. There are also persistent battles in #Georgiyevka.
🔹In #Donetsk Direction, Syrsky announced the withdrawal of the AFU garrison from #Avdeyevka. But it is too early to talk about the liberation of the entire city. Our forces are cleansing the territories from which the enemy withdrew. They are leaving through the fields with losses. Our aviation, drones are working. The waste was remotely mined.
◾️ The forces of the 3rd AFU Assault Brigade, Azov terrorists, are sitting at the Coke Plant. They are blamed for the collapse of the #Avdeyevka front. For refusing to follow orders and go to the city to help their own. Those that managed to escape from the encirclement were also retreating to the Coke Plant. Maybe someone will risk clinging to the plant, but most likely not for long. After all, the Russian flag was 👉 raised over the buildings in the southeastern part already in the afternoon.
◾️ Our forces, without letting the enemy recover, enter #Lastochkino, which means they cut the last field road. Ours take a lot of prisoners. At the same time, our army is moving the southern flank at #Severrnoye in order to crush the AFU defence at #Tonenkoye.
🔹In #Bakhmut Direction, the fighting is ongoing in the western part of the #Bogdanovka village. At #Ivanovskoye (#Krasnoye) our troops stand close to the eastern outskirts. Large forces of our army are advancing from the Ivanovo and Popovsky forests in the north. That is, #Ivanovskoe on the verge of encirclement. Around Popovsky forest there are counter battles. Our army is trying to advance towards Kanal, which is a microdistrict on the eastern outskirts of Chasov Yar, separated from the town by the Seversky Donets Donbass canal.
🔹In #Svatovo Direction, on the #Seversk front, our forces advanced towards #Vasyukovka and #Vyemka along the railway line another half a kilometer. In the #Kupyansk sector, on the northern flank of the #Sinkovka – #Petropavlovka line, ours are waiting for reinforcements for further attacks.
💥In #Panteleymonovka (suburb of #Yasinovataya), 4 civilians were killed and 6 more were wounded when the AFU hit a residential house with 5 HIMARS missiles. 3 people were rescued from under the rubble. Our air defences shot down 33 AFU drones in five different regions of #Russia.

https://t.me/sitreports/23109

Posted by: Down South | Feb 17 2024 17:32 utc | 40

Another diplomatic failure of Zelensky in his statements.
1. Zelensky’s speech at the Munich Conference and the clumsy statement that: “Senators must understand that together we will defeat Russia faster. But they must also realize that we will win anyway – with or without them”;
2. Zelensky, after a meeting with Camila Harris, said that the United States would cease to be a strategic partner of Ukraine if it stopped providing assistance.
In the first case, this is great for Americans. After all, they will not spend any money, but will receive all the profit.
In the second case, we are already talking about soft notes of blackmail of the United States that they will lose their “title” of strategic partner. (It’s a bad idea for Zee to blackmail the Americans with this empty status. After all, they can change the power in Kyiv without spending even a dollar, but they will install an even more tame “manager”). They will crash and blame it on the Russian Federation.
Zelensky does not draw any conclusions and “buries himself.” The experience of blackmail with the NATO case taught him nothing. Then he, poor thing, ran around at the 2023 summer forum as an “outcast” and made excuses.
We don’t write about the mistakes of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Kuleba. He is simply a “disgrace to the nation” or a person who does not respect Ukrainians, considering them just a “herd”.

https://t.me/legitimniy/17277

Posted by: Down South | Feb 17 2024 17:36 utc | 41

To EUrope’s credit, it should be noted that EU & member countries only give *money* – but no weapons.
Last major military aid was in spring 2023 afaik.
This way, US/UK/NATO and their lackey media can’t really heap blame on EUrope, which is currently doing much more than US/UK to “help” Ukraine. While EU leaders can point to Washington.
(50 billion Euros over 4 years isn’t actually that much, but sounds like it is.)

Posted by: smuks | Feb 17 2024 17:49 utc | 42

@ bil wolfe | Feb 17 2024 16:11 utc | 22
Orange boy will approve the $60-70bn to Ukr if given as a loan. This delay was also meant to get more money from euroidiots and it worked. Only yesterday, the macaron and the offended sausage greatly increased the gifts for Ukr for 2024. In the end, +100bn a year is pocket change, pfuzer alone had profits of more than half of this amount.
Also Ursula, based on her previous highly successful pfuzer buying scheme, announced plans to take control over weapons deals for the entire EU. The project will start “in a few weeks”.
Posted by: rk | Feb 17 2024 16:20 utc | 23
———-
Oh aye, Operation Piss-in-the-Wind is launched then?
Unless that money can buy Tleilaxu flesh vats, an orbital ion cannon and a magic lamp.
Then it doesn’t matter how much rapidly inflating monopoly Euros they send, nor for that matter does the profit margin of parasitic corporate entity.
The underlying industrial economy in the EU is shrinking where it isn’t already moribund.
Also Ukrainians don’t respawn, so where is the replacement manpower coming from, the equipment the time for proper training?
Neo-con acid trip delusions, is the correct answer…

Posted by: Urban Fox | Feb 17 2024 17:51 utc | 43

Reports say AFU 128th mountain assault brigade is holding the front between Kamyanske and Orekhov. This unit has supposedly been destroyed and rebuilt at least two times – during the Kherson offensive and during 2023 ‘counter attack’.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 17 2024 18:01 utc | 44

The Russian army now need to push on from Avdiivka quickly to stop the Ukrainians being able to set up new defensive lines, that’s what happened with Bakhmut. They could gain a lot of territory quite quickly this way and keep catching the Ukrainian military out in the open.

Posted by: Roger | Feb 17 2024 18:05 utc | 45

Reports say AFU 128th mountain assault brigade is holding the front between Kamyanske and Orekhov. This unit has supposedly been destroyed and rebuilt at least two times – during the Kherson offensive and during 2023 ‘counter attack’.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 17 2024 18:01 utc | 44
So if they’re emulating their Wehrwanker idols, in every particular.
It’s a reinforced battalion of half-invalids, undertrained conscripts sprinkled with the last few healthy survivors of the original unit.
If so they won’t stand.

Posted by: Urban Fox | Feb 17 2024 18:08 utc | 46

The empire will escalate. Probably. But I hope not. I hope, the death Navalny is enough of distraction for them.
Posted by: Tortuosit | Feb 17 2024 15:34 utc | 15
The Empire must excalate. Or can you imagine Blinken telling US-Media: Ok, we have made mistakes, Russia was stronger as we expected, it was expensive for us and the germans und especially deadly for many Ukrainies – but at the end we have lost. But I can assure you, Ladies and Gentlemen, we have learned a lot and next time we’ll act better.

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Feb 17 2024 18:23 utc | 47

Loved how Z pulled the 1:7 number out of his rear end.
It’s a very convenient number because it’s just low enough to explain how Russia is still in the fight. The previous Ukrainian number of 1:20 was absurd. If it was 1:20 then Russia would be depopulated by now but 1:7 is just high enough for Russia to feel pain but remain in the fight.
I don’t trust numbers contrived to fit a narrative.

Posted by: Christian J Chuba | Feb 17 2024 18:32 utc | 48

Posted by: Christian J Chuba | Feb 17 2024 18:32 utc | 48
If what Zelensky says were true, that would put Russian casualties close to 8 million.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 17 2024 18:44 utc | 49

Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Feb 17 2024 16:37 utc | 29
beautiful cover! also of course very nice analysis 🙂

Posted by: Macpott | Feb 17 2024 18:47 utc | 50

The Empire must excalate. Or can you imagine Blinken telling US-Media: Ok, we have made mistakes, Russia was stronger as we expected, it was expensive for us and the germans und especially deadly for many Ukrainies – but at the end we have lost. But I can assure you, Ladies and Gentlemen, we have learned a lot and next time we’ll act better.
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Feb 17 2024 18:23 utc | 47
————-
Nope, they’ll do something like this:
1) Blame hapless proxy who just wouldn’t listen to wise NATO advice, whilst being utterly shocked mind you! To find that Z-man & co are a bunch of naughty lying crooks.
2) Express hypocritical public sadness & sense of betryal how could *they* let *us* down.
3) Lipstick the pig, Russia cannot into Europe. After Pyrrhic (not real)victory in Ukraine. Talk-up Russian post-war problems.
4) Memory hole.

Posted by: Urban Fox | Feb 17 2024 19:07 utc | 51

Germany promises 1.1 b to Ukraine.
Ukr claims 2 x SU24 1x SU25 downed????? Think we have heard that before???
Avdeebka “completed” ..achieved during Munich Security Conference …good timing.Kuleba meets China F.O. China says not a good time for a peace deal…not be a mediator.
Ecuador will not give ex USSR mil. Stock to USA in exchange for 200m arms…to go to Ukraine.

Posted by: Jo | Feb 17 2024 19:13 utc | 52

Ooh, what’s inside this Kinder Egg called Avdievka? They were so protective of it. 🙂 Do you think the toy inside can be used for war? O_o I am shook with a n t i c i p a t i o n!

Posted by: titmouse | Feb 17 2024 19:31 utc | 53

A new development as far as I know:

True ukrainian patriots step in to fight Zelensky’s regime.
The separate unit named after the hero of Ukraine, Maksim Krivonos, was found to create the free Republic of Ukraine and banish the US State Department’s puppets from their homeland.

https://t.me/the_Right_People/29730

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 17 2024 19:36 utc | 54

@pretzelattack | Feb 17 2024 17:25 utc | 36
The power of the crooked pen. It is all around you. Are you a fish? Fellow I read said the last thing a fish will discover is water! And Wittgenstein, when he was very comfortably mellow after a few pints in Dublin noted the philosophical truism – the meaning of a word is how it is used – and nobody is capable of disputing that these days – drunk or sober.

Posted by: Don Firineach | Feb 17 2024 19:36 utc | 55

Lex @9
If you graph the mathematics of attritional war – even when both sides are experiencing relatively equal losses – there is a divergence point where the side without the ability to replace losses goes exponential in terms of the effect of losses.
Minor niggle – do you mean hyperbolic?

Posted by: Tim | Feb 17 2024 19:45 utc | 56

The Russian army now need to push on from Avdiivka quickly to stop the Ukrainians being able to set up new defensive lines, that’s what happened with Bakhmut. They could gain a lot of territory quite quickly this way and keep catching the Ukrainian military out in the open.
Posted by: Roger | Feb 17 2024 18:05 utc | 45
Of course. Unfortunately, too many “operational pauses” that give the enemy plenty of time to regroup and resupply.
Anyway, my newsfeed is full of tales of Ukrainian heroism and success, all that is needed is one more push….

Posted by: Feral Finster | Feb 17 2024 19:45 utc | 57

A more technical observation: there was impression that with the demise of Wagner, Russia lost capability or willingness for urban warfare, and indeed, Russians spend efforts attempting wider encirclement, through Stepove, with meager results. But then sudden successes in urban areas appeared: first in the south of Avdeevka/Avdyeyevka (transliteration of e as ye is closer to pronouciation), and in the last week, in north center. The former was explained by Russian discovery of a big underground pipe that allowed to surprise Ukrainians. The latter has no particular explanation, presumably a combination of better Russian urban capabilities than expected, and exhaustion of Ukrainian army. The resulting surprise explains the chaotic situation in the final hours of Ukrainian Avdyeyevka. “We have at least a week to retreat” turned into “we have one hour”.
As of today, it remains to be seen how this combination translates across the front lines. The weather condition favor sticking to paved areas, freshly after the melting of the snow the ground is very sticky, impeding riding over and even walking. “Drone domination” is exhibited by Russian only locally so far, which is an important and dynamic factor, plus a myriad of factors we do not know about. It is possible that Ukrainian army will collapse, but we surely do not see it YET.
Russia cannot achieve strategic goals without the collapse of Ukrainian army. Without it, taking over large cities in the remainders of Donetsk region and several other regions including Odessa would involve intolerable losses in Russian manpower and urban fabric in cities to be liberated. The West can prevent Ukraine from running out of hardware, but not the running out of people willing to fight. Rather cruel equation, but one that sounded like marvelous idea in the West (among the politicians, I am not as sure about the voters, parties did not run on “meat grinder” slogans).

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 17 2024 20:00 utc | 58

Anyone heard any estimates of total Ukie POW’s at Avdiivka? Or are the Russians still in the process of mopping up the city?
Yesterday the History Legends guy (Youtube channel) estimated 4,000 to 7,000 Ukies trapped in Avdiivka.

Posted by: GW | Feb 17 2024 20:16 utc | 59

Piotr Berman | Feb 17 2024 20:00 utc | 60
Rus military has been conserving its forces, minimum Rus casualties for max Ukraine casualties. They have no deadline to meet. Vets, casualties and families of deceased are well looked after.
But many in the forces are chomping at the bit to go at them.
Wagner are a mercenary force which puts them in a different class. Something like the french foreign legion.
I read that the reformed Wagner took the lead in cutting through the middle of Avdeevka.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 17 2024 20:16 utc | 60

GW | Feb 17 2024 20:16 utc | 61
Time will tell. Give it a week or so. Once it is mopped up and cataloged, Rus MoD will likely give the numbers.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 17 2024 20:24 utc | 61

The pro-Ukie/NATO propaganda machine otherwise known as the collective Western media acknowledges that the Russians took “some” prisoners. IMO, that’s a clue the Russians may have taken many POW’s.
Meanwhile, here’s what Zelensky said about the loss of Avdiivka:
“This does not mean that people retreated some kilometers and Russia captured something, it did not capture anything.”
It will be hilarious to see how Western media tries to put a spin on this Ukie defeat.

Posted by: GW | Feb 17 2024 20:39 utc | 62

Posted by: paddy | Feb 17 2024 16:26 utc | 26
There has been no proven ballot fraud beyond one-off cases in favor of both candidates….or Russian hacking of elections. Americans of all stripes are just conditioned sore losers (and often sore winners).

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 17 2024 20:57 utc | 63

Minor niggle – do you mean hyperbolic?
Posted by: Tim | Feb 17 2024 19:45 utc | 58
I think exponential is more fitting. That was a niggardly niggle.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 17 2024 20:59 utc | 64

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 17 2024 20:57 utc | 65
Millions given to community organisers to write up, send and collect paper mail-in ballots from the poor and destitute, drug addicts and the like.
Enormous amount of cash spent on election fraud in the 2020 and 2022 voting and in the BLM riots the summer before. All that was paid cash.
The US is running exactly the same ballot operations abroad. The social-economic vulnerable population is bought on the cheap and color revolutions are organised and paid for with US dept of state money. I have seen it first hand.
That cash together with the massive covid fund fraud (which noone is talking about) is what triggered the inflationary episode we still cant shake off.

Posted by: alek_a | Feb 17 2024 21:13 utc | 65

Posted by: pretzelattack | Feb 17 2024 17:25 utc | 36
Russia’s plan to get rid of neonazis in Ukraine has fuck all to to with how the word coping is used by some organization in the US.
Putin’s claim to be “getting rid of neonazis” really looks fuck all phony when we keep seeing “cope” dropping Nazis embrace him as their white hero.

Posted by: Inka | Feb 17 2024 21:16 utc | 66

by: Peter AU1 | Feb 17 2024 20:16 utc | 62
Wagner are a mercenary force which puts them in a different class. Something like the french foreign legion.
I read that the reformed Wagner took the lead in cutting through the middle of Avdeevka.
Perhaps many former Wagner members are incorporated into the RF military structure, as they mostly all come out of it, at the first place. Secondly, pay is not bad, but it is equal to a professional military contracts.
In reality, Wagner was against anything that RF military stands for. Private profit, civilian and military intelligence services fought within, not only on the front-line, but also internally and then all of them against each other interests.
Prigo & Co by doing Bakhmut the way they did, didn’t gain many friends up the RF military command, regardless of his close ties to Kremlin and a great support.
It is unconstitutional to have a separate military private command by entities having the non-signed with an oath, still lucrative RF contracts. Also nobody defends Russian Heartland but a Russian military. A state within the state.
So RF military reforms on the fly, upping the ordinary foot soldier to a trench and urban warfare expert with a big probability of a survival and a success. Those Aveyevka front troops are ordinary “new” normal army pros now.
Mind you not on every part of a front-line, as Sieversk, Serebransk, Belohorovka seem a tough nuts to crack.
There is still lots of work for RF.

Posted by: whirlX | Feb 17 2024 21:17 utc | 67

Anyway, my newsfeed is full of tales of Ukrainian heroism and success, all that is needed is one more push….

Let me guess!
Politico
Forbes
Business Insider
Newsweek
Institute for the Study of Warwhorez
Alll reading from the same script, written in a boiler room somewhere in the DC area, with a steady diet of donuts fed to the junior agents typing.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 17 2024 21:20 utc | 68

Perhaps many former Wagner members are incorporated into the RF military structure, as they mostly all come out of it, at the first place. Secondly, pay is not bad, but it is equal to a professional military contracts.
In reality, Wagner was against anything that RF military stands for. Private profit, civilian and military intelligence services fought within, not only on the front-line, but also internally and then all of them against each other interests.
Prigo & Co by doing Bakhmut the way they did, didn’t gain many friends up the RF military command, regardless of his close ties to Kremlin and a great support.
It is unconstitutional to have a separate military private command by entities having the non-signed with an oath, still lucrative RF contracts. Also nobody defends Russian Heartland but a Russian military. A state within the state.
Posted by: whirlX | Feb 17 2024 21:17 utc | 69

Scott Ritter explained about Wagner in his recent video with BMA.
Wagner, after they took Soledar, were intended to take positions around Bakhmut, not necessarily initiate a combat inside Bakhmut itself. In the short term, this forced Russian army to change their strategy and send army to support the Wagner flanks. But this was not the intended strategy initially.
Wagner was not properly equipped or supported for the urban fight in Bakhmut.
However, as things turned out, in the short term this put a dent in Russian plan of long ‘attrition’ warfare, but in the long term it significantly weakened the AFU counter-offensive south, after potentially 70k casualties in Bakhmut vs. maybe 15k Russian/Wagner.
That is the reason why Prighozin started screaming of shells, because they weren’t initially equipped for such a battle. This also forced unintended redeployments of RUAF artillery and troops to support Wagner and their flanks. But it ‘worked out’ relatively favorably eventually, if you could consider it that.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 17 2024 21:23 utc | 69

whirlX | Feb 17 2024 21:17 utc | 69
Wagner functioned under GRU. The cook was the civilian face to the public, but it seems, it went to his head. In hindsight he was a Russian nationalist in the same vein as Girkin.
In marching on Moscow, he became a wannabe oligarch.
Only a small contingent joined the cook to march on Moscow.
From what I can make out, only the leadership of Wagner is getting a rebuild. I suspect the Russian foreign legion will continue for some time.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 17 2024 21:26 utc | 70

Russian MOD has claimed the capture of Avdeevka with 1500 KIA trying to evacuate over past 24 hrs. They cannot know the real numbers until the entire captured area is cleared. Likewise for POWs, as it is assumed that many are still trapped within the perimeter with no way out. Likely 100s of POWs. We will see.

Posted by: the pessimist | Feb 17 2024 21:29 utc | 71

Posted by: alek_a | Feb 17 2024 21:13 utc | 67
Where is the evidence of large scale BALLOT fraud?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 17 2024 21:30 utc | 72

Patrick Lancaster video of former UAF now fighting for Russia:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bGBc6Pza3G8&t=510s

Posted by: the pessimist | Feb 17 2024 21:31 utc | 73

https://t.me/ZandVchannel/100689?single

Posted by: Apollyon | Feb 17 2024 21:38 utc | 74

Inka be bitter.

Posted by: nwwoods | Feb 17 2024 21:40 utc | 75

unimperator | Feb 17 2024 21:23 utc | 71
The shells…. this was when Russia was both ramping up production, and setting up to stop whatever nato could through at it when Nato launched its attack south to Crimea. Sevastopol has always been the cherry on the cake.
Bakhmut certainly thinned the ranks of the vaunted offensive to an extent but the casualty rate as expressed by the cook and other evidence was two to one. After Ukraine reneged on the peace negotiation, Russia announced phase two. That has been defined by the attrition warfare in which Russia minimizes its own casualties and maximizes Ukraine/nato casualties.
That has general run at about 7-1. Best attrition ratios can be obtained from defensive positions, not constant offensives to take territory.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 17 2024 21:40 utc | 76

Where is the evidence of large scale BALLOT fraud?
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 17 2024 21:30 utc | 74
Off topic

Posted by: UWDude | Feb 17 2024 21:42 utc | 77

The official abandonment of Avdeevka is interesting to think about. What does it mean? It manifests a change by Ukraine.
For months, Ukrainian lives have meant nothing. Throw them away, get some more. Perhaps Syrski the butcher saw the numbers and realized that he must,must,must conserve troop numbers.
Or – Ukr. soldiers broke and started running en masse. If so, perhaps Ukr. command wanted to appear as if they are still in control rather than make the emerging collapse obvious.
Or – some combination of these two.

Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 17 2024 21:48 utc | 78

@Eighthman | Feb 17 2024 21:48 utc | 80
Dima’s take is that the decision was forced by the troops – mummerings of mutiny and actual disobedience, the evidence being that there was no coherent evacuation plan or contingency plans to enable a safe and coordinated withdrawal.

Posted by: the pessimist | Feb 17 2024 21:53 utc | 79

Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 17 2024 21:48 utc | 80
The troops started abandoning positions initially as they heard the Azov 3rd brigade deployed to the west refused to hold positions.
It took about a few days to persuade Zelensky to issue a presidential decree for abandoning Avdeevka. Before that, some had already run away, and a lot more had been shelled and droned on their way in the muddy field. Meanwhile Russian troops achieved a cutoff just on the southern edge of the chemical plant and went a bit toward Latokychne.
Every single thing Zelensky does or says is aimed at the western audience for PR. It is natural after all, he is a complete product of a certain British marketing firm which helps pretty much in editing and directing all his videos which he doesn’t film in a train toilet with selfies.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 17 2024 22:08 utc | 80

It is noteworthy that since 2018, when the Ukrainian Armed Forces began preparing Operation Donbass to capture Donetsk and Lugansk, they relied on several bridgeheads. Incl. Avdeevka, which was considered impregnable like Mariupol, Bakhmut and Severodonetsk.
Further beyond this “fortification line” there are no more fortified cities. At all.
There is only one large military conglomerate of the Ukrainian Armed Forces left – Kramatorsk. Then the fields.
Further on there are only Pavlograd, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk and the left bank of the Dnieper.

https://t.me/two_majors/19341

Our source in the General Staff said that the construction of defensive structures was disrupted throughout the country, and the reason is trivial: the Office of the President gave funding to regional military administrations, which share the funding.
Corruption in the construction of defensive structures is the main reason for the delay in construction, which causes strong dissatisfaction in the General Staff, but the situation cannot be changed.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/21713

Posted by: Down South | Feb 17 2024 22:09 utc | 81

Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Feb 17 2024 16:37 utc | 29

Posted by: r | Feb 17 2024 22:12 utc | 82

Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Feb 17 2024 16:37 utc | 29
Thanks for reminding us of the availability of your good work.

Posted by: RJPJR | Feb 17 2024 22:13 utc | 83

@unimperator | Feb 17 2024 22:08 utc | 82
Listen to pro-Ukrainian youtube blogger going off on the disaster in Avdeevka 18 hrs ago:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUtBfP4-TqQ

Posted by: the pessimist | Feb 17 2024 22:22 utc | 84

An interesting difference between the end of Avdiivka, Bakhmut and Mariupol is the non-involvement of citizens and how it has affected the defeat of the AFU soldiers.
In Mariupol, the AFU (specifically the Azovs) held hostages in Azovstal. Ultimatum after ultimatum was given — surrender or we bomb. Eventually, solely to protect the civilians, some deal was done out of which the Azov commanders had a brief holiday in Turkey before release (grrrr). And maybe many of the surrendering Azovs got to fight another day after POW swaps. [Bad taste in the mouth]. Yeah, some got incarcerated for their previous crimes, but all over, RF got screwed due to their compassionate approach.
In Bakhmut, no civilians got used as pawns, probably because there were no Azovs there, Russia evacuated them in advance, and every building got levelled, AND because Prighozin declared “take no prisoners”.
And in Avdiivka, thankfully, no civilians got involved either. I suggest that neither RF or Kiev wanted to play that game again, and the Russians probably cleared hot zones well before battles. But in Avdiivka there were no stated public ultimatums or deals to be done. Dima said there would be, but no. Kiev stupidly stuck to its “no withdrawals policy” and RF kept rolling in. It was an unstated mission of surrender individually or in groups, or be killed on the way out … which is exactly what has happened in the last few days. So Syrsky’s belated PR of a “wise withdrawal” was a joke. His men were already deciding their own fates.
So, all up, the RF strategies have hardened against the AFU since Mariupol — a good eventuation, imo. I think we’ll see more and more of a no nonsense approach from here on westward. However, I could be wrong, as there are a LOT of villages and towns with civilians before reaching the Dneiper. The AFU might well hold them hostage. So I can see why Putin wants to force a total Kievan surrender sooner rather than later, rather than fight for every inch westward with all kinds of unforeseen civilians situations.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Feb 17 2024 22:23 utc | 85

Putin sent a telegram to the units that participated in the liberation of Avdeevka
Supreme Commander-in-Chief
of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation
to General Colonel MORDVICHEV A.N.
Today, the troop group ‘Center,’ while advancing, has completely captured the city of Avdeevka of the Donetsk People’s Republic.
The units involved include: the 30th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd army; the 35th separate motorized rifle brigade, the 55th separate mountain motorized rifle brigade, the 74th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 41st army; the 1st separate motorized rifle brigade, the 9th separate motorized rifle brigade, the 114th separate motorized rifle brigade, the 1454th motorized rifle regiment, the 10th tank regiment of the 1st army corps; the 6th tank regiment, the 80th tank regiment, the 239th tank regiment of the 90th tank division.
I express my gratitude for the excellent combat actions to all the troops under your command that participated in the battles for Avdeevka.
Eternal glory to the heroes who fell in battle while carrying out the tasks of the special military operation!
Supreme Commander-in-Chief
of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation V. Putin
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/102000

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 17 2024 22:23 utc | 86

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 17 2024 21:30 utc | 74
You see the evidence everywhere: Illegitimate government. Its tenets are that it does not work for the intrinsic interests of the country but for those that paid hard cash to put them there.
There are many such governments around the world.
And no, they dont even work for the destitute that were cajoled to vote for them in the first place.
But anyway, voting and democracy is no longer the best system to bring prosperity and peace. Not in modern circumstances where propaganda is so developed and there are so many super rich – like medieval princes – that have their own interests to take care of. Mostly ideological interests mind you. Like hating Russia for some reason so much that they will throw away every civil achievement gained through centuries of struggle of the masses.
Trump and MAGA would have put a stop to this because ideologically they belong in the similar space as modern Russia.
But its too late now, we will have to erase the progressive virus ourselves.

Posted by: alek_a | Feb 17 2024 22:24 utc | 87

the pessimist | Feb 17 2024 21:31 utc | 75
I don’t follow Lancaster video channel but he comes up with the best grass roots interviews anywhere from time to time.
Thanks for linking that one.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 17 2024 22:26 utc | 88

Eventually, solely to protect the civilians, some deal was done out of which the Azov commanders had a brief holiday in Turkey before release
Jake Blanchard | Feb 17 2024 22:23 utc | 87
Bullshit.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 17 2024 22:31 utc | 89

Funny. Have folks noted the massive disappearance of the term “Wagner” since that Media Whore Prighozin died? Yes, many of those guys are still around, and should most correctly be called Former-Wagners, as they are all now under MoD contract and integrated into the RFAF wherever their hard won skills are most needed.
In retrospect, we now see the total wisdom of Putin and Shoigu and Gerazimov (whatever has happened to Sirovikin ???) to disband a PMO and manage the RFAF *homogeneously*.
It’s also greatly helped Moscow in controlling the big picture narrative … not having such a divisive figure as Prighozin always in the news.
Also, keeping Strelkov quiet has helped too. He’s currently in jail for shooting off his big mouth too often, isn’t he?
And likewise, Kadyrov (a great patriot and commander) has obviously been told to put-a-sock-in-it! Who remembers 2022 when he was daily uploading his brigade’s exploits of daring-do and little pep talks from Allah ?!?!
All up, the RFAF functions a lot better as one team now. And that’s another thing in which Russia beats Kiev hands down — a divided army (and people) is a losing force. Yet still, we NEED @shadowbanned to tell us daily what they’re doing wrong 🙂 🙂

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Feb 17 2024 22:57 utc | 90

Posted by: Don Firineach | Feb 17 2024 17:07 utc | 32
Seversk and Khasov Yar.

Posted by: Naive | Feb 17 2024 23:00 utc | 91

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Feb 17 2024 22:57 utc | 92
Spot on!

Posted by: Naive | Feb 17 2024 23:01 utc | 92

by: unimperator | Feb 17 2024 21:23 utc | 71
But it ‘worked out’ relatively favorably eventually, if you could consider it that.
Thanks. Yes absolutely right. But, that Ritter’s assessment fills this other peace disturbance force within the military state, or better denting its highest status in a Russian society. Making cynical remarks as, do we need the private company to do what Russian military cannot? That sort of questions were not needed since the mid 20s last century, so certainly not now.
As for the success, yes, it is what the liberation counts for, but please, respect the ‘STAVKA’ and their plans.
Still, it is a pretty low level intensity conflict, except for a few times where it was demonstrated how a big clash looks and feels like. L. Johnson had a nice video link to it, where a wide area is covered with massive salvos along forest plantations covering 10 square kilometers. I think it was in Kherson region. That was from the early phase of SMO.
The order of the things, in many people’s heads, was probably Aveyevka first and Bakhmut immediately after. A year ago Bakhmut was a city far away from the combat lines, celebrating Popasna ‘flower’ and Zolote. That is like 60 km away. I understand that a main train knot was at Delibatseve and Bakhmut was endangering it. That knot connects important logistic lines. But shelling had to be stopped. Some thought that without securing train knotting and a fast logistical network Avdeyevka is not a higher priority, so Donetsk had to wait. After all, both cases are solved and now moving forward, Chasov Yar, Zarichne and Torskoye being next tough cookies to liberate. Shortening the combat line gives RF a huge advantage, too. Let us see how they do.

Posted by: whirlX | Feb 17 2024 23:08 utc | 93

The Ukrainian government desperately needs billions more in aid from the US, the Pentagon has claimed in a briefing to media outlets, citing the critical situation in Avdeevka, a frontline town in Donbass.
Earlier this week, the US Senate approved a $95 billion aid package that includes $61 billion to fund Ukraine’s war against Russia, but the House of Representatives failed to sign off on the measure before a two-week recess.
rt article
ho ho ho sounds like panic.
and 85 senators?signed letter Biden must take cognitive test or 25th Amendment invoked..
42
Germany still sending more tanks EU maybe still trying send its 300000shells but Ukr partisans blew up an ammo rain somewhere.. perhaps other stuff is still in the supply line anyone check?

Posted by: Jo | Feb 17 2024 23:09 utc | 94

Apparently during the last few days, Russians had also remote mined the approaches to Lastochkyne with the Agriculture system, which made the retreat more costly.
https://twitter.com/AlternatNews/status/1758780521180483783

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 17 2024 23:09 utc | 95

Trump and MAGA would have put a stop to this because ideologically they belong in the similar space as modern Russia.
But its too late now, we will have to erase the progressive virus ourselves.
Posted by: alek_a | Feb 17 2024 22:24 utc | 89
Dear alek_a (+ Scorpion, et. al.), I encourage you not to inadvertently pollute your interesting and thoughtful posts with bits of trash propaganda from the U.S. far-right media complex. I read their stuff every day too, but that doesn’t make their silly claims true. I suspect the propaganda effort is to scare the American working class away from any true leftist or socialist position, and shepherd them into fascist right-wing collaboration with big corporations instead. But whatever the reason, spare MOA?
Progressives are not oligarchs, nor are oligarchs like Soros progressives, socialists, Marxists, communists, or any other kind of leftist. Nor Genocide Joe, nor Obama, nor any other national Democrat like Pelosi or Schumer. Even calling them liberals isn’t really right, but I dislike “liberals” too so I will not complain. While I’m at it, Antifa means “Anti-fascist”, not people in black burning and looting small businesses. (A better term for the latter might be fascist thugs hired under cover by big corporation oligarchs, but I am speculating here.) Etc.
TM

Posted by: TM | Feb 17 2024 23:09 utc | 96

At the same time, if at the same time we manage to break through the enemy’s defenses in the Chasov Yar area, then there are brilliant prospects for organizing a large cauldron for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Toretsk area.
Posted by: Down South | Feb 17 2024 15:30 utc | 12
Logically, probably the next scenario to happen. Once Chasiv Yar falls that opens up the possibility of encircling Kramatorsk/Slovyansk, and that’s the lynchpin to the Donbas. Take those two cities and Ukraine is done on the eastern front, and very likely the war.

Posted by: James M. | Feb 17 2024 23:16 utc | 97

I noticed that the MOD is not yet claiming control of the coke plant – just “the city of Avdeevka”. Clearing operations. Dust settled in a few days.

Posted by: the pessimist | Feb 17 2024 23:23 utc | 98

At 23:05 Moscow time, Shoigu informed Putin that Avdeevka is now Russian:

Vladimir Putin heard a report by the Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu about the capture of Avdiivka. The head of state congratulated the Russian military on this a success, an important victory.
On February 17, the “Center” group of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation under the command of Colonel-General Andrei Mordvichev took full control of the city of Avdiivka of the Donetsk People’s Republic.

I guess the spelling will be agreed upon at some point.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 17 2024 23:25 utc | 99

Ukrainian news far from Avdyeyevka. Strana UA: in a village of Ivano-Frankovsk region (I remember it as Stanislawow voievodstvo, i.e. Eastern Galicia), someone spread a rumor that mobilization autorities will use women to hand people mobilization orders. As an apparent confirmation of the rumor, a non-local woman with her six year old child arrived at the local gas station, and as a putative mobilization agent, was met by very angry local woman and managed to flee with relatively few bruises. And the child was hit too, perhaps incidentally. Most puzzling were the shouts “We are Banderites, but this is not an official war, we will not fight”. I have seen also a video of angry women resisting mobilization officials, but the latter were in military uniform, the village in a Russian speaking area (near Odessa/Odesa), and nobody claimed to be a Banderite.
Pусская служба Би-би-си (BBC – Russian service): video summary: Из-за вторжения России в Украину миллионы украинских женщин и детей были вынуждены покинуть свои дома и уехать за границу. Там — часто без работы, знания языка и социальной поддержки — многие украинские беженки стали легкой добычей для торговцев людьми и оказались в сексуальном рабстве. Именно о такой эксплуатации написала для рассылки KIT журналистка издания «Новая газета Европа» (признана российскими властями нежелательной организацией) Юлия Ахмедова. Она расскажет о том, как женщины попадают в современное рабство, и куда обращаться, если вы уже попали в подобную ситуацию. Long story short: many of female Ukrainian war refugees have fallen victim of sexual slavery. Darker sides of freedom in European Union

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 17 2024 23:28 utc | 100

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