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The MoA Week In Review – OT 2024-052
Last week's post on Moon of Alabama:
Blogging:
Ukraine:
Middle East:
> On one occasion, a handful of children, all about ages 5 to 8, were carried to the emergency room by their parents. All had single sniper shots to the head. These families were returning to their homes in Khan Yunis, about 2.5 miles away from the hospital, after Israeli tanks had withdrawn. But the snipers apparently stayed behind. None of these children survived. <
Russia:
Misc:
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Other issues:
Assange:
Germany:
Use as open (not related to Ukraine or Palestine) thread …
[ Apologies to anyone not interested in this topic. Please skip past it, I wish to provide some additional basic foundational science info, and then I’ll move along. One more post after this one. Thanks ]
@ Peter AU1 | Feb 20 2024 16:57 utc | 329
Sorry I missed this point – Big Pete says: “and on top of that we are now in the historical oddity of the holocene which I have never seen explained.”
Pete’s never seen the Holocene age being explained? Did you look for an explanation Big Pete? This is the oddest comment of all, because the explanations are everywhere and have been for like, I don’t a few hundred years.
To help him out, I have asked ChatGPT to “Please explain to me what is the Holocene? ”
RESPONSE-
The Holocene is the current geological epoch, spanning from approximately 11,700 years ago to the present. It began after the last major ice age, known as the Pleistocene, and is characterized by relatively stable and warm climatic conditions compared to the preceding period. The name “Holocene” comes from the Greek words “holos,” meaning whole or entire, and “kainos,” meaning new, reflecting the idea of a wholly new epoch following the major glaciations of the Pleistocene.
During the Holocene, human civilizations began to develop and flourish, as the climate provided a more stable environment for agriculture and settlement. The Holocene has also been marked by various climatic fluctuations, including periods of warmer and cooler conditions, but overall, it has been a relatively stable period compared to earlier epochs.
Thanks, but what is a ‘geological epoch’. Please explain that to me.
RESPONSE-
A geological epoch is a subdivision of geologic time that is longer than an age but shorter than a period. It is used to divide the Earth’s history into manageable and distinct units based on significant geological or paleontological events or changes. Epochs are part of the geologic time scale, which is a system of chronological dating that relates geological strata to time.
Each epoch is characterized by particular geological, climatic, and biological features that distinguish it from other epochs. These features are often marked by significant changes in Earth’s environment, such as shifts in climate, sea levels, and the development of new species or extinction events.
The current epoch, the Holocene, is characterized by the relatively stable and warm climatic conditions that have prevailed since the end of the last major ice age. The concept of geological epochs allows geologists and paleontologists to organize and study Earth’s history in a systematic and coherent manner.
OK thanks again. But what are paleontological events or changes? Please explain.
RESPONSE-
Paleontological events or changes refer to significant occurrences or transformations in the history of life on Earth as revealed by the fossil record. These events can include the appearance or extinction of major groups of organisms, shifts in biodiversity, changes in ecosystems, and evolutionary innovations.
Some examples of paleontological events include:
Mass extinctions: These are events in which a significant portion of Earth’s biodiversity is lost in a relatively short period. Examples include the Permian-Triassic extinction, which wiped out around 96% of marine species, and the Cretaceous-Paleogene extinction, which led to the extinction of the dinosaurs.
Adaptive radiations: These are periods when a single ancestral group diversifies rapidly into a variety of new forms, often filling different ecological niches. An example is the Cambrian explosion, when most major animal phyla appeared in the fossil record within a relatively short time.
Evolutionary transitions: These are major changes in the structure or function of organisms, often associated with the evolution of new features or adaptations. Examples include the transition from fish to tetrapods (four-limbed vertebrates) and the evolution of flight in birds and insects.
Changes in biodiversity: These include long-term trends in the number and variety of species present on Earth, such as the increase in biodiversity following mass extinctions and the decline in diversity during periods of environmental stress.
Geological events: These include changes in Earth’s geology that have significant impacts on life, such as the formation of mountain ranges, changes in sea level, and the impact of asteroid or comet collisions.
Overall, paleontological events and changes provide insights into the history of life on Earth and the processes that have shaped the diversity of organisms we see today.
OK. Could you also explain why the current epoch, the Holocene, is characterized by the relatively stable and warm climatic conditions that have prevailed since the end of the last major ice age? Thanks
RESPONSE-
The relatively stable and warm climatic conditions of the Holocene epoch are primarily due to natural factors, although human activities have also played a role in more recent times. Several key factors contribute to the climate stability of the Holocene:
Natural Climate Variability: The Earth’s climate is subject to natural variability due to factors such as changes in solar radiation, volcanic activity, and ocean circulation patterns. Despite these natural fluctuations, the Holocene has been characterized by a relatively stable climate compared to earlier epochs.
Post-Glacial Rebound: The Holocene began after the last major ice age, known as the Pleistocene. As the large ice sheets that covered much of North America and Europe melted, the land began to rebound, leading to changes in ocean circulation patterns and regional climate conditions.
Greenhouse Gas Levels: During the early Holocene, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane were relatively stable. These gases help trap heat in the atmosphere, contributing to the warm temperatures of the Holocene.
Milankovitch Cycles: These are long-term changes in Earth’s orbit and axial tilt that affect the distribution of solar radiation on Earth’s surface. While Milankovitch cycles influence the timing of ice ages and interglacial periods, they are not the primary driver of the Holocene’s stable and warm climate.
Human Influence: While not a primary factor in the early Holocene, human activities such as agriculture and deforestation have contributed to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations, land use patterns, and atmospheric aerosols, which can affect regional and global climate.
Overall, the relatively stable and warm climatic conditions of the Holocene can be attributed to a combination of natural factors and, to a lesser extent, human activities. These conditions have provided a favorable environment for the development of human civilizations and ecosystems as we know them today.
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Feb 21 2024 4:29 utc | 359
And finally – I see, thank you. Could you please explain how these Holocene conditions area significantly different to the previous epochs?
RESPONSE-
The Holocene epoch is significantly different from previous epochs, particularly the Pleistocene, due to several key factors:
Climatic Stability: The Holocene is characterized by relatively stable and warm climatic conditions compared to the preceding Pleistocene epoch, which was marked by frequent and often dramatic shifts between glacial and interglacial periods. The Holocene has experienced a relatively stable interglacial period, allowing for the development of human civilizations and complex ecosystems.
Ice Sheet Retreat: The Holocene began after the last major ice age, when large ice sheets covering much of North America and Europe began to retreat. This retreat led to changes in global sea levels, freshwater availability, and ocean circulation patterns, influencing climate conditions during the Holocene.
Biodiversity Changes: The transition from the Pleistocene to the Holocene saw significant changes in biodiversity, including the extinction of many large mammal species such as mammoths and saber-toothed cats. These extinctions were likely driven by a combination of climate change and human activities.
Human Impact: The Holocene has been marked by increasing human influence on the environment, including the development of agriculture, the domestication of animals, and the establishment of permanent settlements. These activities have had far-reaching impacts on ecosystems, biodiversity, and climate, setting the stage for the Anthropocene epoch.
Overall, the Holocene epoch represents a period of relative stability and warmth compared to the preceding Pleistocene epoch, with significant changes in climate, biodiversity, and human impact shaping the world as we know it today.
And what is this ‘Anthropocene epoch’, how is it different?
RESPONSE-
The Anthropocene epoch is a proposed geological epoch that reflects the significant impact of human activities on Earth’s geology and ecosystems. The term “Anthropocene” is derived from “anthropos,” meaning human, and “cene,” indicating a new geological epoch. While the concept is not yet formally recognized as a geological epoch by the International Commission on Stratigraphy, it has gained traction among scientists and scholars studying Earth’s systems and human impacts.
The Anthropocene is considered different from previous epochs, including the Holocene, in several key ways:
Human Dominance: The Anthropocene is characterized by the dominance of human activities as a major geological force shaping Earth’s environment. Activities such as agriculture, urbanization, industrialization, and resource extraction have significantly altered landscapes, biodiversity, and biogeochemical cycles.
Global Scale Impact: Human activities in the Anthropocene have had a global impact, affecting ecosystems, climate, and biogeochemical cycles on a planetary scale. This includes changes in atmospheric composition, ocean acidity, and land use patterns that are altering Earth’s systems in unprecedented ways.
Acceleration of Change: The Anthropocene is marked by an acceleration of environmental change compared to previous epochs. Human activities have led to rapid changes in climate, biodiversity loss, habitat destruction, and pollution, outpacing natural rates of change seen in the geological record.
Technological Influence: The Anthropocene is characterized by the widespread use of technology to harness Earth’s resources and transform landscapes. Technologies such as fossil fuel extraction, agriculture machinery, and industrial processes have amplified human impacts on the environment.
Awareness and Response: The concept of the Anthropocene has sparked increased awareness of humanity’s role in shaping Earth’s systems and the need for sustainable practices to mitigate environmental degradation. This has led to calls for global cooperation and policy changes to address environmental challenges.
Overall, the Anthropocene represents a new epoch in Earth’s history, where human activities have become a dominant force shaping the planet’s geology, ecosystems, and climate, with profound implications for the future of life on Earth.
Warm wishes, LD
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Feb 21 2024 4:31 utc | 360
@ UWDude | Feb 21 2024 6:14 utc | 378 digs deep and has another shot at Da Dog!
LoL. Of course, you knew a tiny percent of CO2 in the atmosphere was way more important than that obviously, irrelevant stat in the sky that provide 99% of planetary heat.
No, I never said that. What I said was I knew since the 1990s “the Sun’s output and its variations can influence Earth’s climate and contribute to global warming to some extent, but they are not the primary drivers of the current rapid warming trend today.”
Its perfectly logical to a scientific mind like yours.
Yes. Absolutely. (smile)
Why would anybody find it ridiculous that a tiny increase of CO2 gas has way more effect than sun surface temperature fluctuations. Ha, you’ve known for thirty years how silly that is!
I never said thinking otherwise was “silly”. Stop putting words in my mouth.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man
I never said anything was “ridiculous” either.
It is quite common for people to imagine it is “ridiculous that a tiny increase of CO2 gas has way more effect than sun surface temperature fluctuations”. At least until they can understand why the opposite can be true today, usually by learning about the solid scientific evidence, the basic physics behind it, and long term observations which support it. No different than children learning the science behind why an apple falls from the tree to the ground. It’s called gravity. No one can see that either. (smile)
four climate models
What four models is that?
Next you can ask your AI friend about urban heat islands, and if climate models adjust for the extra heat emanating from them over time around well established measurement points…
I asked the Woke AI ChatBot – Please tell me about urban heat islands, and if climate models adjust for the extra heat emanating from them over time around well established measurement points. Is there any extra heat from them or not?
RESPONSE-
In terms of climate models, scientists and researchers do take into account the effects of urban heat islands when modeling local and regional climates. They use a variety of techniques to account for the extra heat emanating from urban areas, such as:
Satellite Data: Remote sensing data from satellites can be used to identify and quantify UHIs, allowing researchers to incorporate this information into climate models.
Urban Parameterizations: Climate models can include specific parameterizations to account for the effects of urban areas, such as increased heat absorption and emissions of heat-trapping gases.
Land Use Data: Climate models use land use data to differentiate between urban and rural areas, allowing for more accurate simulations of temperature and other climate variables.
Overall, while urban heat islands do contribute to local and regional climate changes, climate models are able to account for these effects to provide more accurate predictions of future climate trends.
Oh shit sorry. Wrong again. Or the Woke Bot is lying to me? (smile)
Here are the Google Scholar ranked research papers on that question: 2015-2024 About 17,000 results
https://scholar.google.com.au/scholar?q=urban+heat+island+effect+-+climate+models+adjustments+-+extra+heat+emanating+-+established+measurement+points&hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&as_ylo=2015&as_yhi=2024
TRY The state-of-the-art of urban climate change modeling and observations 2020 by R Hamdi et al
Abstract: For climate modeling, on the other hand, specific dynamical and thermal parameterization dedicated to the exchange of water and energy between the atmosphere and the urban surfaces have to be implemented. Therefore, to fully understand how cities are impacted by climate change, it is important to have (1) simulations of the urban climate at fine spatial scales (including coastal hazards for coastal cities) integrating global climate scenarios with urban expansion and population growth scenarios and their associated uncertainty estimates, (2) urban climate observations, especially in Global South cities, and (3) spatial data of high resolution on urban structure and form, human behavior, and energy consumption. [end quote]
(big smile)
Dont worry, it will tell you urban heat islands also have no effect on measurements, and there is no need to adjust their readings to make them equivalent to when they were mot surrounded by urban environments.
UM, sorry, no. They didn’t say that at all. Look! (smile)
…(but the tiniest changes can create a cascade effect… Unless, of course, they dont support the doom model, then they are orrelevant)
Sounds like just another unfounded disjointed opinion Dude. And nothing to do with me. (smile)
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Feb 21 2024 6:53 utc | 380
That’s interesting and all, but I was talking about the fact that data points would e at the same point, but over time urbanization would develop around them, causing it to appear to be getting warmer and warmer every year.
These “heat Islands” would have been developing even in the 1860s or before, when temps would be read in small cities at town halls, printing presses or libraries.
As the cities grew, the location from which the temperature is taken should not change, (or more corrupt data would appear there), but would likely find itself in the center of larger and larger towns and cities.
What cities were putting out what kind of extra heat on what days, and how fast that extra heat rose, would be impossible to determine now, so all baseline data used is corrupted, and essentially useless.
Especially as heating energy became more and more accessible, then add in traffic jams, etc, and there is NO WAY for us to know how ANY of the previous daya points were affected by the heat island phenomenon from day to day.
This would be especially crucial in town and cities in more rural areas, like say Denver 1910, or Seattle 1920, and Billings 1930, because these points are then normalized across vaster distances, so their flawed readings account for even more of surface temperature.
Your links, and chatGPT is just telling us NOW they can start to get accurate temperature measurements, that take the heat island phenomenon into consideration.
Have you even figured out what the normalization process they use is, what resolution means in this case, and why I am pointing out its faults? I dont think you have.
Furthermore, I dont think you appreciate at all how important it is that the data points used from long ago must be measured exactly the same way, at exactly the same times of day, multiple times a day, and without extra heat interfering, like heat Islands.
And you can not. Because it require admitting that THE VAST MAJORITY OF SURFACE TEMPERATURE READINGS FROM BEFORE THEY WERE BEING TAKEN WITH CLIMATOLOGY ACCURACY AND CONTROL ARE HOPELESSLY CORRUPTED, eg, before 1980 or so.
They can not be used as any kind of reliable data points to extrapolate any kinds of patterns there are simply too many variables, too much human and instrument error.
I have seen table of normalized temperature data, and it is showing digits reading out to the 1/100th degree… In 1850!
It is not possible to have any accuracy beyond a full degree until at least the 1950s, especially not in agglomerated worldwide temperature readings.
And I know science wishes it was…BUT IT IS SIMPLY NOT POSSIBLE, just like we can never know what ancient Hebrew or Egyptian actually sounded like. It would be nice, and it could be a boon to philological theories, but, IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN.
(smile)
Posted by: UWDude | Feb 21 2024 7:43 utc | 385
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