Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 20, 2024

Screw The Facts - Europe Commits Itself To Further Escalation

International relations professor Andrew Latham opined in a recent piece that the idea of total Ukrainian victory is delusional.

Unfortunately some people, predominantly in Europe, still stick to the delusional idea:

In professional journals, on influential websites and across the full spectrum of media outlets, observers, analysts and pundits alike continue to inform us that, yes, there is a way for Ukraine to prevail over Russia, expelling the latter from all of its territory, including Crimea.
...
[That's nonsense.]
...
In short, Russia is winning the war and there is little to suggest that any foreseeable political, economic, tactical or technological developments are likely to alter that fundamental reality. So why are we seeing arguments about an ultimate Ukrainian battlefield triumph, in the face of all the devastatingly contradictory evidence?

Well, applying Occam’s razor — the principle that “other things being equal, simpler explanations are generally better than more complex ones” — I would suggest that the delusional belief that there is a pathway to total victory for Ukraine is based less on evolving military or geopolitical realities than on a simple psychological dynamic, one best summed up in the concept of “commitment escalation.”

According to this concept, individuals or groups sometimes exhibit a tendency to persist with a failing argument, even as that argument becomes increasingly untenable in light of the facts. This behavior is marked above all by an adherence to prior commitments — sunk costs, as the economists might put it — regardless of their present plausibility or rationality. It is a psychological dysfunction.

The German government under chancellor Scholz is one group which has stuck to the fallen argument. There is no way the Ukraine can win or that Russia could lose that war and any additional price paid for attempts to invalidate that is just wasted.

Since the start of the war the EU's and Germany's reaction to it have been on the wrong path.

As I wrote on February 28 2022:

Germany's crazy move to add $120 billion to defense spending (up from some $40 billion p.a.) will within a few years create a strong military imbalance in Europe as Germany will then dominate all its neighbors. This is unnecessary and historically very dangerous. The shunning of economic relations with Russia and China means that Germany and its newbie chancellor Olaf Scholz have fallen for the U.S. scheme of creating a new Cold War. Germany's economy will now become one of its victims.

On February 4 Russia and China declared a multipolar world in which they are two partnering poles that will counter the American one. Russia's move into the Ukraine is a demonstration of that.

It also shows that the U.S. is unwilling to give up its supremacist urges without a large fight. But while the U.S. over the last 20 years has spent its money to mess up the Middle East, Russia and China have used the time to prepare for the larger conflict. They have spent more brain time on the issue than the U.S. has.

The Europeans should have acknowledged that instead of helping the U.S. to keep up its self-image of a unipolar power.

It will take some time for the new economic realities to settle in. They will likely change the current view of Europe's real strategic interests. 

Unfortunately the change of mind is taking much longer than I had hoped for.

Commitment escalation has so far blocked any change. Instead of changing its path the EU seems to be willing to get more deeper into the morass.

In May 2022 I described the immediate reaction to the war as a kind of hysteria:

The European response to the U.S. proxy war against Russia was based on media driven hysteric moralizing or maybe moralizing hysteria. It was and is neither rational nor realistic.

The European 'leadership' decided that nothing but the economic suicide of Europe was sufficient to show Russia that Brussels was seriously miffed. Dimwit national governments, including the German one, followed that program. Should they stay on their course the result will be a complete de-industrialization of western Europe.

I had hoped for saner heads to gain the upper hand over this development. That, unfortunately, has not happened (yet?). Europe instead seem to drift towards even more lunacy.

Twelve rounds of sanctions against Russia have not hurt anyone but Europe's economy. Why then release round thirteen?

In Germany some politicians now dream of further arming the Ukraine, of getting Germany "battle ready" and of "carrying the war into Russia".

No thought is given to the rational responses Russia could take if such nonsense prevails. What would happen if it, in response, would carry the war into Germany? Russia has the means (missiles) to do that while Germany lacks the means to prevent it.

The U.S. has ended the distribution of weapons and money to Ukraine. I do not expect that to revive until after the inauguration of the next president. In fact, it may not revive at all.

The next president may look for a conflict with China and put more effort into those attempts than to hustle with Russia over some backwater in eastern Europe.

Ukraine will be left to Europe to pay for and to clean up. Germany, as the main payer into the EU's budget, will be the most hurt by that.

Is it really difficult to understand that the path towards further fighting Russia will only lead to devastation?

Why then is there no effort made to prevent it?

Posted by b on February 20, 2024 at 16:11 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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Am reminded of Vietnam.

"Withdraw?! You want to tell all those wives that their husband/child died for nothing?!"

Posted by: librul | Feb 20 2024 16:17 utc | 1

On other forums, I've seen people say something is VERY off about this 'war'/SMO. There's no way Europeans (Western or Eastern) think Russia has any urge to conquer more territory. They have more than enough natural resources and were exporting/selling them on the cheap to Europeans.

Why do they care what goes on between Ukraine and Russia? What in Ukraine is worth risking WWIII? It doesn't add up.

Posted by: bored | Feb 20 2024 16:21 utc | 2

even after watching america's flight from saigon, live on tv, how many years did it take for the population to begin to configure that they had been defeated. in a fish called wanda, john cleese delivered a hilarious monologue that was hilarious simply b/c it told america the truth! in this bernays mind dump the west will live a few decades dead certain it is still rules the world.

Posted by: emersonreturn | Feb 20 2024 16:24 utc | 3

Why do they care what goes on between Ukraine and Russia? What in Ukraine is worth risking WWIII? It doesn't add up.

Posted by: bored | Feb 20 2024 16:21 utc | 2

Geostrategic positioning.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Feb 20 2024 16:25 utc | 4

The US is achieving its objectives in the Ukraine.

They have split the EU from Russia to prevent a true European bloc from forming.

They have cut off Germany from cheap Russian energy and forced their companies to relocate elsewhere (including America).

They have sold more LNG to Europe.

They are cutting off the EU from Russia's ally China to further fight against the rise of that nation.

They are slaughtering Slavs and expending Russian weapons that could oppose NATO.

They are learning about Russian weapons and finding out which ones of theirs don't work so well (hint: most of them).

They are setting up Europe to execute a slow attritional proxy war with Russia that may last for many years.

They are getting Europe to spend more on defense and buy more US military equipment.

Destabilizing Russia was a "stretch goal", nice if it happened, but America is getting what it wants.

Posted by: mtw | Feb 20 2024 16:25 utc | 5

Why do they care what goes on between Ukraine and Russia? What in Ukraine is worth risking WWIII? It doesn't add up.
Posted by: bored | Feb 20 2024 16:21 utc | 2

EuroJihad.
my neighbour, a civilized, humanistic leaning and well educated lady with a background in law is absolutely convinced that Putin is the Devil incarnate and must be fought at any cost.
She has absorbed everything FAZ and other German "top tier" media have told her.

i.e. what you see is:
Rather perfect media control.
politics here is permeated with 5th column people.
leverage from snooping is applied rather freely to aid in decissions.

Posted by: MAKK | Feb 20 2024 16:31 utc | 6

'Why then is there no effort made to prevent it?'

Because the EU and all Western governments, with the exception of perhaps Hungary and Serbia, are controlled by the 'British Empire Elites'. For them, defeating Russia is existential. Defeat is not an option. Escalation is the only option, until they win or the entire West crashes.

And time is of the essence. The 'British Empire Elites' need to win before they lose their hold on the nations of the West to nationalists like Trump and Le Pen or to revolts of the masses.

Posted by: dh-mtl | Feb 20 2024 16:32 utc | 7

Man hat uns systematisch belogen und uns vorgemacht, daß die Ukraine eine Chance gegen Russland hätte – wobei immer klar war, dass es nur vom guten Willen Russlands abhängt, ob dieser Krieg konventionell bleibt. Und der wäre nicht mehr da gewesen, wenn die Ukraine nennenswerte Erfolge gehabt hätte. Die Russen haben immer die Freiheit zu entscheiden, ob sie konventionell oder atomar gewinnen wollen – nur verlieren können sie nie. Deutschland hat in erheblichem Umfang Waffen geliefert durch die tausende Russen gestorben sind, obwohl die dafür Verantwortlichen wissen mussten, dass damit nichts erreicht werden kann. Die Rechnung wird kommen, sie wird lang.

We were systematically lied to and led to believe that Ukraine had a chance against Russia - although it was always clear that whether this war remained conventional only depended on Russia's good will. And that would no longer have been there if Ukraine had had any notable successes. The Russians always have the freedom to decide whether they want to win conventionally or nuclear - but they can never lose. Germany has supplied a significant amount of weapons that have resulted in the deaths of thousands of Russians, even though those responsible for this must have known that nothing could be achieved. The bill will come, it will be long. (Google Trans)


Posted by: Oliver Krug | Feb 20 2024 16:36 utc | 8

even after watching america's flight from saigon, live on tv, how many years did it take for the population to begin to configure that they had been defeated.

@Posted by: emersonreturn | Feb 20 2024 16:24 utc | 3

It was definitely a punch to America's psychological stomach
and the years afterwards the US was in a real funk.
Ronald Reagan capitalized on this and people's desire to be once again positive about America.

[It just remembered that less than two weeks after being in office
Reagan stated something that no other President had - the Izzy Settlements were legal.]

I remember seeing the pullout from Saigon, Operation Frequent Wind (what a stupid farty name, Pentagon!), on tv.
That was a real epiphany for me. My outlook changed totally.

Posted by: librul | Feb 20 2024 16:38 utc | 9

As far as I understand, this scenario of the West being characteristically persistent in fighting for, in this case, a lost cause, has always been Russia's preferred scenario. Reason being it hastens the decline of the West, and this decline has for Russia become an almost existential necessity, because for Russia, the West has clearly demonstrated that it will not rest till it fully controls Russia.

Posted by: Sal | Feb 20 2024 16:39 utc | 10

B

At the start there was some expectation that France might not fall into this trap (and even Germany tried wiggle out, anybody remembers the non weapons only phase?)

But as the us explained that it was not an invitation for war, but a compelling summoning of vassals…

Only way out is the us being too obvious on the screw the Ukraine. It would become an impossible sell internally for European leaders.

My 2 cents

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 20 2024 16:39 utc | 11

Ursula von der Leyern is the problem. Get rid of her and the problem goes away.
I'd like to see elections in Germany, with the AfD in government.

Posted by: Dave Pollard | Feb 20 2024 16:40 utc | 12

Posted by: dh-mtl | Feb 20 2024 16:32 utc | 7

Well said. 'British Empire Elites' are clearly given carte blanche by the capos in US (and Israel) to wreck Europe and have the crumbs from the US MIC orders. These 'elites' see themselves as the survivors in the coming continental war.

Posted by: Boo | Feb 20 2024 16:40 utc | 13

I wonder how Western Europe is going to manufacture the weapons needed to rearm given that they are desperately short of energy and have got rid of a great deal of their manufacturing. Without affordable energy, they cannot earn the money from exports to buy poor weapon systems from USA for very long without bankrupting there economies or impoverishing their populations leading to major social strife.
I bet the Europeans are pleased to have such a great friend as the USA!

Posted by: Bill R | Feb 20 2024 16:40 utc | 14

Once you‘ve painted your adversary as a mad-dog-crazed-maniac-who-wants-to-enslave-Europe ; then it’s well neigh impossible to sit down and negotiate a sensible win-win peace treaty.

Note - the RF military budget was some $65 billion in 2021.

Posted by: Exile | Feb 20 2024 16:40 utc | 15

@Posted by: mtw | Feb 20 2024 16:25 utc | 5

Good points.

Posted by: librul | Feb 20 2024 16:43 utc | 16

Ursula von der Leyern is the problem. Get rid of her and the problem goes away.
I'd like to see elections in Germany, with the AfD in government.

Posted by: Dave Pollard | Feb 20 2024 16:40 utc | 12

You really don't want that to happen.

That would be "den Teufel mit Belzebub austreiben"

Olaf is alleged to have positioned against VdL as next Nato Secretary : much too rabbid.

Posted by: MAKK | Feb 20 2024 16:52 utc | 17

While the leaders of the EU are elitist cowards and vassals, it simply would not do to have them recognize their own obsequious and inferior character. So, they respond with greater zeal than even what the US orders them to do, as if they were in charge or the greatest moral crusaders - instead of streetwalkers pimped out by US interests.

Their delusion is pleasurable. If they woke up to reality, it would be very unpleasant.

Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 20 2024 16:53 utc | 18

nah it's very clear that a little more push and Russia will fall. That makes all the present Euro sacrifices worth it as trillions$ are up for grab in the Russian treasure chest.
Come on Europe. Once more into the breech!!

Posted by: Surferket | Feb 20 2024 16:53 utc | 19

@ b

"Unfortunately the change of mind is taking much longer than I had hoped for."

The longer the wait the weaker, and geopolitically irrelevant, Europe becomes.

It can't come soon enough, if ever.

Posted by: Don Firineach | Feb 20 2024 16:54 utc | 20

Krinky bridgehead's gone -- says Shoigu. Since there's no reports of a retreat across the river, I suppose that's a total loss for the AFU.

Posted by: Yadro | Feb 20 2024 16:56 utc | 21

Day 1 of the SMO here in Norway - a teacher/professor/scientist at a military college were brought in to the main broadcaster as an expert to explain what was going on.

The expert told it like he saw it with his background and education,- Ukraine stood no chance at winning this conflict, none at all.

He shouldn't have said that.


This statement "no chance at all" created a furore amongst certain politicians, other media and institutions. He was never invited back and the "media" started the narrative about Ukraine's certain road to victory.

Like it was with the War On Terror, Trump/Russia collusion, C19/vaxxx - it's always about controlling the narrative.

Posted by: Josef Palin | Feb 20 2024 16:58 utc | 22

the concept of “commitment escalation.”

According to this concept, individuals or groups sometimes exhibit a tendency to persist with a failing argument, even as that argument becomes increasingly untenable in light of the facts. This behavior is marked above all by an adherence to prior commitments — sunk costs, as the economists might put it — regardless of their present plausibility or rationality. It is a psychological dysfunction.

Yes, this is very similar to (perhaps the same as) the concept of cognitive dissonance where factual challenges to one's world view are causing subconscious pain. In order to relieve the pain, unwelcome facts are disregarded in order to maintain the (faulty) world view. Obviously, it doesn't work in the long run.

The “commitment escalation” phenomenon seems to be a particularly nasty group think variant where the western 'elites' refuse to recognise the fact they are no longer masters of the universe.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 20 2024 16:59 utc | 23

My previous post was written from the US establishment perspective and does not explain why Europe is cooperating with its own impoverishment.

I think CIA/MI-6/NGO compromise (bribery and compromising information [e.g. Epstein]) of European elites and fear of a US driven color revolution if you step out of line are strong factors in why EU leaders are complicit in the destruction of their own economies.

I also believe the fundamental principles of Western elites are flawed and will eventually fail as the Rest of the World continues to align themselves away from the treacherous West.

Posted by: mtw | Feb 20 2024 16:59 utc | 24

Again, everything the german gov is doing is targeting the destruction of Germany as a state, a society and a home for Germans. That is the superordinated goal at all.
It means, that every idioticy is wellcome to achieve that, doesn't matter how dangerous or costly.
The gov ist desperately looking for a way to circumround the "Schuldenbremse" ( limit of debt of the state) and a big war is the vehicle to do that. Fortunately, Germans are not willing to accept that stupid " gather round the flag," because they are not proud of their former land, robbed by ..you know.
Forget that warmongering by a few people of the Atlantic Bridge, they are puppets.

Posted by: ableman | Feb 20 2024 17:00 utc | 25

In reply to mtw:

- The US has over-stretched by sanctioning the use of its currency, SWIFT, and other financial exchange mediums, creating a longer-term exodus on the use of the USD as the reserve currency of the world

- The US has shown its aggressive financial policy needs to be hedged against by any and all other countries, lest they be victimized much worse than Russia given general inability to avoid such sanctions and lack of resources vs. the largest country in the world

- US debt is sky-rocketing and is no longer being absorbed in large quantities, enough to meet the deficit, by foreign debt holders

- The medium to long-term path the US is on is completely unsustainable and has opened the country up to significant instability in the future

Posted by: SteveNYC | Feb 20 2024 17:01 utc | 26

Posted by: mtw | Feb 20 2024 16:25 utc | 5

Also on the financial side, the dollar is reaching the end of its useful life. Inherit properties in the dollar system itself have reached end of life usefulness & the world economy is trying to mitigate dollar/treasury bond damage if not outright reject it (easier said than done).

With this in mind, the bold move of confiscating Russian dollar assets, sanctions against russia and (equally as important) taking out gigantic amounts of debt to fuel the NATO proxy war in Ukraine is ZOG pushing all of its poker chips into the pile.

Posted by: ryanggg | Feb 20 2024 17:04 utc | 27

https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/30359

Lukashenko called for discarding all illusions about the possibility of a diplomatic settlement of the global conflict.

If Old Man says that it won’t be possible to reach an agreement...

https://t.me/ZandVchannel/101043

🇩🇪🏴‍☠️🇺🇦 DPA: The German government has prepared a document on the transfer of Taurus to Kyiv

As the agency learned, the parties of the ruling coalition prepared a secret document on the transfer to Ukraine of a new batch of ammunition, vehicles and weapons systems. A vote on this issue in the Bundestag is planned for this week.

It is noted that cruise missiles are not directly mentioned in the text of the initiative, but there is a clause on the supply of long-range weapons systems and ammunition for attacks on strategically important targets deep in Russia’s rear. It is assumed that we are talking about Taurus in this paragraph, since these missiles can hit targets at a distance of more than 500 kilometers.

Posted by: anon2020 | Feb 20 2024 17:05 utc | 28

@Dave Pollard | Feb 20 2024 16:40 utc | 12

Ursula von der Leyern is the problem. Get rid of her and the problem goes away.
Ursula von der Lederhosen is a big part of the problem, she definitely must go as she is crazy, unelected with zero democratic legitimacy. However, there are other unelected crazies too.

This situation started with the Maidan coup in 2013/2014, as a kind of parallel to Germany 1933. That part ended in 1945, so if the parallel holds there is another year to go before Europe is a smoking ruin.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 20 2024 17:06 utc | 29

The Germans are looking for some LEBENSRAUM, you know, the same old German problem, all that wonderful land in Ukraine now free of the pesky Ukrainians and any form of government will be ideal territory to send all the peasants in the Germany to.

Posted by: Eoin Clancy | Feb 20 2024 17:07 utc | 30

yes, us and the west as a whole are indeed pushing all their chips unto the table.
and thats the issue.
past behaviour is a solid hint of their future behaviour. and this means they will completely escalate like madmen/-women.

will they escalate like in korea, killing a third of the russian population? (after sending all of ukraine into their death of course). or will they go nuclear? i can even see them first going after serbia just to bring home a point that all slavs must either obey, or die.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Feb 20 2024 17:08 utc | 31

b wrote: "Is it really difficult to understand that the path towards further fighting Russia will only lead to devastation?"

Rich military contractors and investors won't be "devastated". They'll be pleased at becoming richer! (or as pleased as psychopaths are capable of being). What MATTERS is that the rich become richer. There's nothing difficult to understand about it.

Posted by: Mark Mosby | Feb 20 2024 17:12 utc | 32

@Josef Palin | Feb 20 2024 16:58 utc | 22

Day 1 of the SMO here in Norway - a teacher/professor/scientist at a military college were brought in to the main broadcaster as an expert to explain what was going on.

The expert told it like he saw it with his background and education,- Ukraine stood no chance at winning this conflict, none at all.

He shouldn't have said that.

To stay sane, I cut out NrK completely about 10-12 years ago. Who was it that said that?

Every year I meet with some old university friends and their wives. In May 2022 I said the same thing to my friends - there was absolutely zero chance Ukraine could win. They looked at me like I was a Martian.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 20 2024 17:14 utc | 33

Basically, Ukraine will get longer ranged missiles and more western weapons, before an expeditionary force is sent directly. No, the citizens of the EU vassal states won't be happy, but nobody will ask them their opinion. Their opinion will be given to them.

Russian dithering is causing Russian lives to be lost and Russian cities to be attacked.

Posted by: Feral Finster | Feb 20 2024 17:15 utc | 34

IMO, there's little EU/NATO has to escalate with. Yes, there're a few weapons that haven't been provided that might but they'll do nothing to change the current and future situation. What Team Zelensky lacks are well trained troops armed with weapons that work, along with an air force and AD weapons that work. What can EU/NATO states provide to fill those needs? Does NATO seriously think its forces can avoid being destroyed in the same manner as Ukie forces? What of the command capabilities of anyone on the Ukie/NATO side? For NATO, this is a very new type of warfare with very different tactics and weapons in which NATO has next to zero expertise and very few of the new weapons. On the economic side, sanctions have proven suicidal; Russia's economy is flying very high and will continue to do so. Very soon, Russia and the Global Majority will be close to completely insulated against the West's financial hegemony. There was talk about disconnecting from Russia's nuclear industry that supplies fuel for all EU reactors with IAEA's Grossi pointed out the utter folly of that.

The problem is the treasonous EU and national leaders have made themselves that way by their hidebound adherence to orders from the Outlaw US Empire proving their status as colonies, not independent states, and not one has the courage to stand up and say we need to stop shooting ourselves in the head. Putin has said Russia won't help Europeans save themselves from their treasonous leaders; Europeans must solve their problems themselves. Some of the most recent technological feats for Russia are the reengineering of some of the devices made by Siemens that were crucial for rail transport. The import substitution program is a massive success, and now Russia will export that technology at better prices than its EU competitors. The sanctions didn't just destroy European industry; they made Russia more competitive--a double whammy.

Europe can still save itself, but it must reclaim its independence. And it can't do that while trying to fight Russia via Ukraine or any other nation.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 20 2024 17:16 utc | 35

The Germans lost WW2 mainly because of the red army. Contrary to what all Hollywood movies do you want to make believe.

Most likely that is the main reason that there is a very strong anti Russian undercurrent in Germany.

This sentiment is masterfully exploited by the US.

Posted by: Jacob | Feb 20 2024 17:16 utc | 36

Ursula von der Leyern is the problem. Get rid of her and the problem goes away.
I'd like to see elections in Germany, with the AfD in government.

Posted by: Dave Pollard | Feb 20 2024 16:40 utc | 12

If you think that is the beginning and end of the problem, then I suggest that you reconsider. Europeans like being slaves.

Posted by: Feral Finster | Feb 20 2024 17:16 utc | 37

In the area of Security Studies they have something called "Ontological Security", being secure in ones world view. The West, most especially the moneyed and intellectual elites, consider the West to be fundamentally superior to the "Rest". Something based upon over five centuries of increasing Western dominance and the Western Enlightenment (which was much dependent upon the knowledge developed in the 'Rest" but that could not be acknowledged), turbocharged by the second unipolar moment in the 1990s.

The Russian ability to subdue a Ukraine that the West had spent three decades turning against Russia, a Ukraine with an army fully trained to "NATO standards", infused with massive amounts of Western military equipment and with access to all relevant Western surveillance assets, would utterly destabilize the Western elite worldview. So they cannot give up easily, as they would have to change their whole view of themselves and the Western populations may question their legitimacy. Of course the Ukraine war is only one aspect of this, as such things as China's ongoing success and climb up the technology tree, together with the inability to dominate the Middle East, are just some of the factors causing Western elite ontological insecurity.

The rational response of those elites would be to compromise, but time and time again such groups tend to double down on their beliefs and shoot any messengers, its called "cognitive dissonance", reality contradicts the internal world view so it is the external reality that is rejected. That is why so many Western elite members looks increasingly delusional as they try to cling onto their own self-images and that of the West in general.

It will take crushing defeats to force a change, and the flow of defeats is accelerating, not just in Ukraine. Sub-Saharan Africa rejecting the West, Yemenis sinking Western ships, China developing their own advanced chip technology while dominating the "green" industries, even the Pakistan vassal elite not being able to fully control domestic events, Brazil cutting off diplomatic relations with Israel. There will be setbacks, but the winds of history are blowing away from the West and its elites are utterly dumbfounded that their rancid garden can no longer dominate the forest the way it used to.

I have been tracking the Russian daily reports of Ukrainian casualties, which does not include losses in the Ukrainian rear due to bombs and missiles. With the now much higher availability of FABs and other such weapons that can be used to attack the rear, those uncounted losses must be escalating. Todays losses report was of 45 (Kupyansk), 395 (Donetsk), 425 (Avdiivka), 190 (South Donetsk), 120 (Kherson): 1,175. Every day now the Russian MOD is reporting over 1,000 Ukrainian losses, which I would equate to an overall number of 1,500. Plus high levels of artillery pieces and armoured vehicles, especially when counted against the lesser numbers that the Ukrainians now have. Plus seemingly one or more ammunition depots up in flames each day.

Such losses are simply not sustainable with a Ukrainian military that is having severe problems kidnapping new conscripts and with a severely reduced supply of new artillery, armoured vehicles and munitions. The Ukrainian front will simply continue to give way in a self-reinforcing collapse. The Western elites now struggle as they know that outright war with Russia would be suicide, but their minds fight to keep their world view intact. We can expect much delusional elite thrashing around until Russia full subdues Ukraine, which it must, and the European economies go deeper and deeper into deindustrialization and depression. The only fix is for the removal of the current vassal and delusional elites, which will require more than just votes in elite-rigged elections. One breakpoint could be the German elite banning of the AfD, perhaps then we will see if the Germans are just a bunch of woke sheep or are actually capable of grabbing some of the power from their traitorous elites.

Looks like Pobeda will fall within days, the next domino to go down. As Dima puts it Robotyne is now the new meat grinder where the Ukrainian reserves will be eaten up.

Posted by: Roger | Feb 20 2024 17:19 utc | 38

Once you‘ve painted your adversary as a mad-dog-crazed-maniac-who-wants-to-enslave-Europe ; then it’s well neigh impossible to sit down and negotiate a sensible win-win peace treaty.

Note - the RF military budget was some $65 billion in 2021.

Posted by: Exile | Feb 20 2024 16:40 utc | 15

Later in the conversation, Gilbert recorded Goering's observations that the common people can always be manipulated into supporting and fighting wars by their political leaders:


We got around to the subject of war again and I said that, contrary to his attitude, I did not think that the common people are very thankful for leaders who bring them war and destruction.

"Why, of course, the people don't want war," Goering shrugged. "Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece. Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship."

"There is one difference," I pointed out. "In a democracy the people have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can declare wars."

"Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country."

Posted by: Feral Finster | Feb 20 2024 17:19 utc | 39

@Posted by: SteveNYC | Feb 20 2024 17:01 utc | 26

Yes, the US can most definitely be characterized as profligate:

Given to or characterized by reckless waste; wildly extravagant.
"a profligate spender; the profligate use of water."

For amusement only:

Nostradamus Century VI, Quatrain 34


De feu volant la machination,
Viendra troubler au grand chef assiegez :
Dedans sera telle sedition,
Qu'en desespoir seront les profligez.

The device of flying fire
Will come to trouble the great besieged chief:
Within there will be such sedition
That the profligate ones will be in despair.

Posted by: librul | Feb 20 2024 17:19 utc | 40

As the SMO moved along, at first I was a bit surprised that Europe's attitude toward Russia was moving into hysteria. While the US had been the source of provactive acts in the region before the SMO, Europe had been displaying some caution. At this point, the US seems to be looking for a cover-its-ass exit while Europe is looking for a fight with Russia, which it will lose. Now I think the attitudes of Europe vs the US towards Russia arise from two different mindsets. The US has always seen Ukraine as a pawn in a larger geopolitical conflict, where Russia must be kept down in order to preserve US hegemony. Europe's attitude, on the other hand, is part of the ongoing petty hatreds that have been at work in the region for millenia. I think they see Russia as the retarded bedwetting nephew that they always believed was inferior, and could be treated with contempt. The rest of Europe felt superior, and Russia could be kept permanently under their thumb. Now they are seeing that this arrangement is unraveling, and like the entitled shits that they are, they are losing it.

Posted by: Mike R | Feb 20 2024 17:20 utc | 41

I agree with B that there won't be any more aid from Washington until after the inauguration.

If you notice, the presstitutes (politico, business insider, WaPost) have unleashed "2 minutes of hate" on Speaker Johnson. Except, it is really like a week of hate.

Vitriolic attacks on his character, name-calling, and general bullying by the press indicate that the blob realizes he can't be rolled. So the next best thing is to impugn his character. That isn't a recipe for compromise and legislation. It's a declaration that he now an enemy of the deep state, as is Trump.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 20 2024 17:20 utc | 42

In response to
"
The medium to long-term path the US is on is completely unsustainable and has opened the country up to significant instability in the future

Posted by: SteveNYC | Feb 20 2024 17:01 utc | 26
"

I agree with the other points that you made and would only suggest that the point above be expanded to describe the path the God Of Mammon West is on....we are in a civilization war about how society is organized, for the few or the many, barbarism or socialism.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 20 2024 17:21 utc | 43

Make no mistake - this has been a full blown NATO versus RF war.

Kiev‘s military is NATO trained, organized, supplied, and officered. There have been perhaps 100,000 NATO regulars in-country for a long time.

Posted by: Exile | Feb 20 2024 17:22 utc | 44

@Roger | Feb 20 2024 17:19 utc | 38

The rational response of those elites would be to compromise, but time and time again such groups tend to double down on their beliefs and shoot any messengers, its called "cognitive dissonance", reality contradicts the internal world view so it is the external reality that is rejected. That is why so many Western elite members looks increasingly delusional as they try to cling onto their own self-images and that of the West in general.
Exactly so, I agree. See also my post Feb 20 2024 16:59 utc | 23 where I made the same point.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 20 2024 17:25 utc | 45

The pain is just beginning for russia.

Vladolph Pitler will pay dearly for his aggression.

It’s about to get REAL hot in moscow…

🍄 ☁️

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 20 2024 17:26 utc | 46

I had a conversation not so long ago with a German woman, a partner at an international law firm.

She recited the usual stuff you read in German MSM, bloodthirsty dictator intent on world conquest and I pointed out that Russia had spent eight years trying to get Ukraine to comply with Minsk-2, an agreement that Francois Hollande, Petr Poroshenko and none other than Angela Merkel herself openly admitted was a sham to buy Ukraine time to rearm and restart the war.

"You're right...." she gasped and then quickly changed the subject, lest wrongthink ensue.

For that matter, when you get an educated class european to concede that the United States committed an act of war on germany by blowing up NordStream, the eurocuck will cower, stare at his shoes and mumble something about how bad slaves deserve their beatings.

Europeans really are that cucked. Less self-respect that whipped dogs, and I say that as a cat.

Posted by: Feral Finster | Feb 20 2024 17:28 utc | 47

"According to a former close associate of Zelensky, around 4.5 million people have refused to register with the military authorities. For a country with an estimated population of only 28 million, 10 million of whom are pensioners, this is a huge problem that calls into question the continuation of the war."
Machine translated, original in German

Posted by: schkid | Feb 20 2024 17:29 utc | 48

Russia has learned well from the following NATO inspired events:

- The attack on the Serb Republic of Krajina in order to deprive the Serbs of the Port of Split and cleanse the Krajina of ethnic Serbs - 1995

- The attack on the Serb Republic of Bosnia in order to deprive the Serbs of the Port of Dubrovnik and cleanse Bosnia of ethnic Serbs 1994-96

- The attack on the Republic of Serbia in order to deprive the Serbs of the home province of Kosovo and ethnically cleanse Serbs from the province - 1999

- The attempt to turn the Republic of Georgia into a NATO client state - 2008

- The success of turning Montenegro and North Macedonia into NATO client states in order to isolate Serbia. Bring Kosovo into NATO so as to guarantee a NATO response to any attempt of Serbia to reclaim its territory.

- Continue to station NATO troops in Kosovo and Bosnia illegally in order to further repress the Serbs and Serbian rights.

- Fail to implement UN resolutions to restore Serb rights in Kosovo

- Continue to harass the Hungarian nationalist government

- Attempt to cut off Hungary and Serbia from supplies of Russian natural gas and petroleum, make their support of Russia in any way extremely painful and bankrupt them if possible

The NATO/Nuland/Soros plan was always to turn the Ukraine into a giant NATO base to subvert Russia, expel ethnic Russians, and play home to CIA and MI6 opeations and biolabs so that the RF could be separated into many pieces........any one not supporting the evil plan for domination will pay the piper.........

Posted by: Tobias Cole | Feb 20 2024 17:29 utc | 49

Looks like Ukrainian guerrillas are escalating as well. In their attacks on NATO and Kiev regime facilities, that is.

Interesting.

Posted by: john | Feb 20 2024 17:32 utc | 50

At this point - simply to save Ukrainian lives - I hope for a complete collapse across the whole line, something that can't be propagandized away. It seems one of the only ways the public might get an accurate grasp of realities.

Of course, that may lead NATO to do something stupid like getting directly involved, but I think that's a relatively small chance given how overloaded US forces are.

Posted by: Matthew | Feb 20 2024 17:32 utc | 51

People such as Sholtz etc. are on the take. They are fully controlled by the hell-beast. I am convinced they understand that Russia is gaining massive momentum and will ultimately triumph over NATO in Ukraine. They are freaked out and don't know what to do. All this rush for obscene-amounts through budget approval is about getting a piece of the pie for themselves before it all collapses. There's not much left of the pie, and the people will be mighty upset when they find out the collective coffers of the people's money, are empty, squandered by these globalist ziocon-owned 'leaders'.

Posted by: Áobh Ó'Sheachnasaigh | Feb 20 2024 17:33 utc | 52

You could make the argument that every foreign policy decision of the last few years, and even before that, are driven strictly by the desire to expend, and therefore acquire, munitions for the material benefit of the MIC. All it is, all of it.

Posted by: muttman | Feb 20 2024 17:34 utc | 53

Sunk cost fallacy, yes, but isn't there a bit of battered wife syndrome too? After the US (with or without UK) blew up NS2, an act of war for pretty much any country, what was Germany going to do? Leave NATO, send the US Ambassador home on the first plane, close down all US bases?

Instead they've gone for taking the blow on the chin, but they resent it as the economy slows more and more. Who can they take it out on? Russia!

"OK, he's broken my arm, and I couldn't leave home until the bruises healed, but let me show him that I really love him!"

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Feb 20 2024 17:36 utc | 54

Posted by: canuck | Feb 20 2024 15:25 utc | 457 (18 Feb thread)

Thank you for reminding me about Cohn’s disbarrment. I think you do have a point.

Posted by: Ciaran | Feb 20 2024 17:38 utc | 55

Sorry, but the narrative in b's citation is pure nonsense. It presupposes things that are manifestly untrue. For example, that Scholtz is an independent actor with some kind of German-national-interest at heart. No, he's simply a stooge, nurtured, bought and paid for by the real decision makers that, despite the globalist narrative, are concentrated in the US, and regardless of their location, see that fortifying their base in the New World is their best hope for survival.

It presupposes that winning the war in Ukraine has, from the POV of it's US planners and instigators, anything to do with Russia or Ukraine. The war is about subjugating Europe. The rest is maskirovka, deception. The US-centric elites are winning this war, using pawns like Scholtz and Van der Crazy, who are manifestly unable to strategize in any form whatsoever. Some of these pawns are economically and ideologically aligned with the US, some are mere useful idiots, some are at least in part subject to blackmail, and all are paid for their participation. Leaders in the west with any agency, who are guided by some concept of national interest, stand out like Orban. In fact, they are Orban. Every other western leader in the public eye is simply a hired hand. If this true, as it obviously is, in the heart of the beast, how could it not be true in the satrapies of the Empire?

I really wish people would stop wasting time and space on analyzing the personalities and motives of the visible individuals in this mess. You mislead yourselves. You'll never get anywhere this way, and that's the whole idea. The key is the interests of the elements of the true ruling class, and the mechanics of the world system they control.

Posted by: Honzo | Feb 20 2024 17:39 utc | 56


[...]
They are learning about Russian weapons and finding out which ones of theirs don't work so well (hint: most of them).
[...]
Posted by: mtw | Feb 20 2024 16:25 utc | 5

The problem is elsewhere. US don't lag in technology but as finance has destroyed its industrial might, US is simply no longer able to produce anything of real value in a conflict at a reasonable cost. Industrial power have left for good the US, which is now basically a country of overpaid lawyers, traders and doctors with obscene price for every "new" thing. Will the next drone swarm use blockchain ? will purchase on NFT be made available on them ? Sure ! but at the end of the day you don't win a war with that.

And those who have kept a reasonable industrial output at reasonable price, they are clearly not siding with the US.

Plus the "Most of Russian weapon don't work so well" that smell neo-colonial hubris

Posted by: w | Feb 20 2024 17:39 utc | 57

Good post, b.

But there's this concern: The more objectively irrational the commitment to the war becomes for European societies, the more we're obliged to consider hidden rationalities. Any time we refer to what "the Germans" or "the French" think we risk losing track of the operation of internal sanction regimes that prevail in those countries. What happens when this or that manufacturer, or this or that trade association, or a union objects to what's happening? We hear that some German industry is folding, some is moving. This is immensely costly and not borne lightly. Who threatens them, and with what? To refer to A O Hirschman's options, how is it that we see so much of exit and loyalty, but very little voice? Is it only a matter of politics and coercion internal to those countries, or do other actors, NATO, the EU, the US, show their teeth? Looking at polls, or turnout for demonstrations can get us only a very limited understanding of what's going on. Broad scale speculation re mass psychology can lose track of how important a rational fear of reprisal determines behavior.

Posted by: dadooronron | Feb 20 2024 17:40 utc | 58

It’s about to get REAL hot in moscow…
🍄 ☁️
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 20 2024 17:26 utc | 46

European politicians emitting to much CO2 is the problem. Sort of like cow farts.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 20 2024 17:43 utc | 59

MAKK #6: My neighbour, a civilized, humanistic leaning and well educated lady with a background in law is absolutely convinced that Putin is the Devil incarnate and must be fought at any cost. She has absorbed everything FAZ and other German "top tier" media have told her.

My Czech in-laws are the same. Smart and civilized - good people - but for some reason have succumbed to black and white thinking on this and other topics. Anyone who suggests there are two sides to the Ukraine story is a Putin puppet. Totally indoctrinated by the Czech media, which I think marches in lock step with the German media.

Posted by: Noah Nehm | Feb 20 2024 17:44 utc | 60

b's right with this post.
He describes the psychlogy of a compulsive gambler, the more he loses the more desperate he gets to win his losses back.
Usaly he'l bet the house, car and family farm and lose them.
Nato are indeed compulsive gamblers its plain to see from the start.
Loose what you can afford then walk away from the table. Thats my advice to nato right now.

Posted by: Mark2 | Feb 20 2024 17:44 utc | 61

Posted by: dadooronron | Feb 20 2024 17:40 utc | 58

Somebody gets it!

Posted by: Honzo | Feb 20 2024 17:45 utc | 62

So why are we seeing arguments about an ultimate Ukrainian battlefield triumph, in the face of all the devastatingly contradictory evidence?

Simple. Get the controlled media to trumpet how Ukraine is going to win. Repubs shutdown funding. Then blame the Repubs for losing a war Ukraine was winning.

Posted by: JackG | Feb 20 2024 17:46 utc | 63

To summarize Medwedjevs recent talking points:

+ as long as the Europeans keep running in circles, Russia will be sitting on the fence.

- but no, Russia will not again take on the hassle to go to Paris or Berlin. If a response is needed, it will be asymmetrical.

So let's hope, our guys will cling to their 360 deg movements, nothing else, nothing more.

Posted by: MorePain4Cakes | Feb 20 2024 17:47 utc | 64

I warned about this earlier. It's a natural next step, to at least threaten it. Just as Putin sort of not so subtly sabre-rattled possibility of nuclear use if he got pressed too far, Western governments have the option of increasing support, putting conventional forces (more) into the battle, etc. Or at least to allude to it.

Russians are not 10 feet tall. Not about to take Odessa--look at a map, dreamers! Not even threatening Kherson.

Both sides will claim they want more...but that is the norm for compromise. Nobody gets what they want. A neutral Ukraine, with borders at the current line of battle will be a very hard pill for the West and Ukrainians to swallow. And Putin/Russians won't like it either (danger of reflash, not getting all the claimed annexed territoriess, Russian speakers left in Kharkiv and Odessa, etc.) But both sides would get the benefit of stopping an incredibly wasteful war. I see things heading here in a year or two. Maybe the Russians have pushed another 30 miles west. big deal.

Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 20 2024 17:49 utc | 65

Here's Shougi with breakdown of the Oik counter offence forces and resultant loses.
They lost everything.
And it was planned in the Baltics. It's ok that really serious red lines were crossed multiple times as the Russians will just pretend otherwise. 10D grandmaster chess moves.

"By the word 'serious' [counteroffensive] we mean not 100, not 200 people, when a group of almost 160,000 was being prepared, or to be more precise, 110 battalions plus 30 battalions almost in reserve, 800 tanks, almost 150 aircraft – airplanes and helicopters, more than 2,500 armored vehicles," he underlined.

"They lost 166,000 [soldiers as] killed and wounded... more than 800 tanks, almost 2,400 different armored fighting vehicles — armored personnel carriers, infantry fighting vehicles … in fact, from what they have today, more than half of the Leopards were destroyed, they lost 123 planes and helicopters in this direction," Shoigu noted.

https://sputnikglobe.com/20240220/russian-general-staff-carried-out-operation-to-take-control-of-avdeyevka-with-minimal-losses-shoigu-1116891879.html

Posted by: Surferket | Feb 20 2024 17:50 utc | 66

Western weapons have turned out to be wet farts. Better to learn that now I suppose....

Posted by: nook | Feb 20 2024 17:50 utc | 67

Mass psychosis has always been prevalent in any human society. Even small groups of people on the edge of survival will do things not related to survival, in fact quite the opposite.

In the current age, I think one telling worldwide event was the "Tides Pods Challenge". There was no real rationale for biting into a small pod of liquid detergent. Everyone over the age of 3 knows that you don't put soap in your mouth. The warnings on the package warn you about placing concentrated phosphates in your mouth.

Yet....
Hordes of internet (mainly tic-toc) millennials "took the challenge".

The power of the internet has changed everything.
Mass psychosis can happen on a much larger scale, and can be reinforced over and over again.


Posted by: BroncoBilly | Feb 20 2024 17:50 utc | 68

"Why then is there no effort made to prevent it?"

The only pushback is coming from farmers and truckers, the citizens who are actually powerless in this elitocracy of mediocre leadership.

The Minister of Agriculture of Poland, Sekersky, let a truth bomb fall yesterday when speaking to the protesting farmers in Poland. Sekersky said that the duty-free import of food into EU countries, encouraged by Brussels, actually does not help the suffering Ukrainian people that much. After all, only a small part of the proceeds, according to Sekersky, replenishes Ukraine’s budget.

“We understand that these imports from Ukraine support specific capital groups. Capital from various countries which is located there [in Ukraine].”

Sovereign Russia has never been fighting western *countries*. Russia is fighting the multi-trillion dollar organizations that control the governments. It is the transnational corporations, investment entities, and banks that have pushed the conflict in Ukraine. Those corporations control the governments and want mediocre leadership to retain control of policy and the profits derived from policy.

In Germany, Rheinmetall has already staked claims on future weapons production in Ukraine. BlackRock, State Street Capital, Cargill, the IMF, the Carlyle Group and so many others want to make billions on the war, have a vested interest in keeping it going, and want an arms race in Europe. They want Ukraine destroyed so they can pick up the pieces and then get tax payer monies to rebuild Ukraine, counting on the corruption that will allow their possession and plunder.

In the US, the whole Biden administration is scrambling because there is less than a year before the 2024 elections. There will likely be a different Democrat candidate and there is also Donald Trump looming as opposition. So, they are working to establish lucrative places for a year from now in 2025 on the boards/councils of Raytheon, the Rand Corporation, the Atlantic Council, NSAID, Lockheed Martin, CNN, lobbying organizations, etc. etc. etc. The US Congress is filling their campaign chests for 2024 elections. The Democrats and Republicans are trying to attract big dollar donors for their 2024 corporate coffers.

All these things require that the multinational corporations and banks must be appeased if not pleased. The $61 billion will go a little way to grease the treads for their futures.

The sanctions are not working to isolate Russia. They are working to isolate the west which is the ultimate goal.

Posted by: Belle | Feb 20 2024 17:51 utc | 69

Sorry I wasn't clear in earlier post, I was trying to say most of the West's weapons are not working well (not effective or not reliable for sustained use in an European battlefield). Agreeing with w's take.

Posted by: mtw | Feb 20 2024 17:51 utc | 70

Most likely that is the main reason that there is a very strong anti Russian undercurrent in Germany.

The anti-"Russian" undercurrent is the anti-Christian hatred. The White Russians have returned to power and are being opposed by the psycopathic bolshevik families of Browder, Kagan, Blinken, and Nuland among others.

There's a reason that Christian family fled the Christ haters in Canada and took refuge in Russia.

The Former West is controlled by the jewish bolsheviks. Just look at the Biden Whitehouse. They hate Christ and they hate White Russians.

Posted by: JackG | Feb 20 2024 17:53 utc | 71

right on b! the reason no effort is put into preventing this ongoing madness, aside from being intent on defeating russia, they are also intent on spending more money on war, with the thought of eventually raping and pillaging russias resources... no other explanation makes sense...

Posted by: james | Feb 20 2024 17:54 utc | 72

Something that comes to mind here - The Americans have always been somewhat divided on who to attack first, Russia or China. Apart from the US fanatical Russia haters, there are those that believe Russia must be neutralized as a military power before the attack on China can commence.

2025 is a date that has been bandied about as a possible start date for the US war on China.
As Russia was not destroyed by the combination of sanctions, information warfare/psyops and actual war, having Russia tied up in war with Europe while US launches it's attack on China is possibly the next best option for the US (as per neo-con thinking).

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 20 2024 17:54 utc | 73

>They are learning about Russian weapons and finding out which ones of theirs don't work so well

This is an excellent reason for both USA/NATO and Russia to continue war indefinitely at reduced intensity. Real war is the only way to keep a military battle ready. Reason Ukraine and LDR/DPR militias did so well initially and Russia did so poorly initially is that Ukraine and the militias had plenty of experience from 2015-2022, whereas regular Russian army had gotten fat and lazy from too many years of peace.

In addition to improving military readiness, war has allowed Putin and the other Russian deep staters to finally crush the oligarchs, reorient Russia towards trade with China, re-nationalize economy to some extent, push Russian culture away from globohomo, etc. Perpetual grinding war, at a much lower level of intensity than currently, would likely be great blessing for Russia. Without pressure of war, Russia likely to fall behind west in technology again.

Of course, perpetual war and use as testing ground for new weapons will be costly for Ukraine.

Posted by: anonposter | Feb 20 2024 17:55 utc | 74

Why do they care what goes on between Ukraine and Russia? What in Ukraine is worth risking WWIII? It doesn't add up.

From a systems perspective, the current behaviour of western governments / elites makes perfect sense. Not that it contributes to their national interests / wealth / happiness. They don't care about those things in the first place. It makes sense from the perspective of their self preservation. It's existential there. They cannot afford to let the web of lies & deciets that they built their power on start unravelling.

Imagine just a second they allow around them the intellectual poise and moral rectitude that somebody like "b" demonstrates. I'm not even speaking of downright honesty, just the capacity to address issues in an intellectually honest way. To research facts and explore alternatives. They'd be done for. Think of all those skeletons that would immediatly come tumbling out of their closets, accumulated over a 30 year carreer to the top... ! No way they can afford to allow that. So yes, doubling down, again and again, is the only alternative that will keep their reputations, and hence their powers alive.

In many ways, our elites are as stuck as Bibi. They cannot win, but they cannot afford not to stick to their guns. They are done for, and don't care that, by chosing the worst alternatives, they are probably doing us in too.

Posted by: Shahmaran | Feb 20 2024 18:00 utc | 75

Putin expelled ex-commander-in-chief of the Aerospace Forces Surovikin from Roscosmos
Ura.Ru and 2 more
February 19, 21:03

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree excluding the former commander-in-chief of the aerospace forces from the Roscosmos Supervisory Board. The relevant document is posted on the official website of the publication of legal acts. This is reported by Rambler.
https://news.rambler.ru/politics/52297831-putin-isklyuchil-iz-roskosmosa-eks-glavkoma-vks-surovikina/

Posted by: Oberbayer | Feb 20 2024 18:00 utc | 76

"Commitment escalation".

There is another explanation that satisfies Occam's Razor. See recent discussions Tucker Carlson and Mike Benz, also Epochtimes w/Mike Benz.

The goal might be to destroy Europe as some post above; I don't know, but that goal is a second simple explanation (razor). We are under totalitarian military rule. Among other things, Benz shows the personnel chart of the players and how the money flows. The legislation.

The players think they can do this at no risk to themselves: imposing tyranny. Tyranny, however, ALWAYS ends in violence. May we live in interesting times.

Posted by: oracle | Feb 20 2024 18:06 utc | 77

Posted by: mtw | Feb 20 2024 16:25 utc | 5
—————-
From the US point of view (i.e make sure to be and to remain the only uncontested superpower) Ukraine disaster is perfectly understandable, not that it will not backfire in the future.
But Europe? How does Europe not perceive that it is the useful idiot of the US and that none of the achievements you listed are beneficial for itself and that it will be bear all the consequences of this war? For decades.
This afternoon I was listening to a debate about how must Europe build a military conventional force able to confront Russia without the help of the US, since it is clear that Putin is unpredictable and could not stop at Ukraine. Putin unpredictable? Are they serious? After multiple warnings about NATO extension from 2008 up to the very last in December 2022 where he warned that technical and military means would be implemented should Russia’s new security framework be dismissed by NATO, EU useful idiot whines about the unpredictability of Putin?
We are done.

Posted by: scc | Feb 20 2024 18:06 utc | 78

"...The Former West is controlled by the jewish bolsheviks. Just look at the Biden Whitehouse. They hate Christ and they hate White Russians..."
JackG | Feb 20 2024 17:53 utc | 71

It's early yet, but so far you are well ahead in the 'Stupidity meets Nazi ideology' stakes. There will be other contenders but you can be certain of a place of the podium.

Posted by: bevin | Feb 20 2024 18:09 utc | 79

Basically, Ukraine will get longer ranged missiles and more western weapons, before an expeditionary force is sent directly. No, the citizens of the EU vassal states won't be happy, but nobody will ask them their opinion. Their opinion will be given to them.

Russian dithering is causing Russian lives to be lost and Russian cities to be attacked.

Posted by: Feral Finster | Feb 20 2024 17:15 utc | 34

---------------

It's funny the doom-leaden keep spouting the same stuff despite changing contexts. Even as NATO's only compatent fighting army is ground into powder.

Fact is German wiz-bang toys assuming they arrive (like the old ever imminent F-16), don't work very well. Whilst being inadequate numerically to replace Adeevka losses alone.

Furthermore Euro-NATO has no armies to send. The German armed forces are a shell as are those of Britain, the French army has reverted to a colonial police force. Everyone else is a toy or a joke.

NATO-wide recruitment is down across the board, in "peacetime" reserves are practically non-extant, and few would ever show up if drafted believe that.

As for the US, they don't fight those who can actually fight back on vaguely even terms.

Posted by: Urban Fox | Feb 20 2024 18:14 utc | 80

"It is a psychological dysfunction."

It is cognitive dissonance.

Posted by: Naive | Feb 20 2024 18:15 utc | 81

"...even after watching america's flight from saigon, live on tv, how many years did it take for the population to begin to configure that they had been defeated. in a fish called wanda, john cleese delivered a hilarious monologue that was hilarious simply b/c it told america the truth! in this bernays mind dump the west will live a few decades dead certain it is still rules the world."

Posted by: emersonreturn | Feb 20 2024 16:24 utc | 3


I had a vision of the ugly American, like the protagonists of perfidious Albion, lamenting their lost empire in an even more insufferable way.

Fortunately, I woke up. The horror. lol.

Posted by: N Hanrahan | Feb 20 2024 18:15 utc | 82

[email protected] deals for 404 in the EU, US to train F16 pilots and planes by summer, Russia calling play by September......some things will go bump in the night well before then, 500k missiles to be supplied by France....with the shear level of madness coming from Brussels, and the CO of Ukraine asking for nukes as the only way his country can win against Russia, you know the nukes are coming. They have no back down and Russia will take a few on the chin before they step up, too bad Mr Putin didn't spend more time with the MMA boys in Rostov, he'd learn a thing or two about street fighting that you don't get in judo class.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 20 2024 18:17 utc | 83

Ah yes, Occam's Razor. Why assume a cabal of 64th level Freemasons is in charge when you have ready explanations in stupidity, blind commitment to dumb ideas, doubling down on sunk costs, and—yes, Honzo—good ole half-assed-ness (otherwise known as basic incompetence). One should never underestimate how dumb people actually are. Even a cynic can have their breath taken away by gobsmacking stupidity. The higher up you go the more profound the moron, because success these days depends on failure. The system cannot admit they appointed a tard; when he fails they cover their asses by promoting him sideways where he fucks up every which way from Brooklyn. Just read the wiki for the career of former Australian PM, Scott Morrison. A sane person wonders what kind of world would advance such a cretin. A vain, grasping, narrow-minded, short-sighted, vacuous world, it seems.

Posted by: Patroklos | Feb 20 2024 18:23 utc | 84

Putin met with Shoigu this morning; I await the transcript's completion so I can post an article containing its translation. After that meeting, Putin participated in the 4th annual ASI Forum, "Stong Ideas for a New Time," ASI--Agency for Strategic Initiatives--which is one way all Russians can contribute to Russian development. As Putin said in his opening remarks, "It's Russia's time."

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 20 2024 18:26 utc | 85

anonposter | Feb 20 2024 17:55 utc | 74

Donbass forces took high casualties in the first months. A combination of close combat fighting and mobilization. Chechen's fared far better when it comes to casualties.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 20 2024 18:27 utc | 86

@Posted by: Mike R | Feb 20 2024 17:20 utc | 41

I think they see Russia as the retarded bedwetting nephew that they always believed was inferior, and could be treated with contempt. The rest of Europe felt superior, and Russia could be kept permanently under their thumb

The European elites have had this view for hundreds of years, irrespective of the type of Russian state. The British were allies of Russia until the latter beat Napoleon and became a great power. Ever since then Britain has been implacably anti-Russian, again irrespective of the type of Russian state. Mettan has an excellent book on this Creating Russophobia From the Great Religious Schism to Anti-Putin Hysteria.

Mettan actually has a newer book out Europe's Existential Dilemma: To Be or Not to Be an American Vassal

@Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 20 2024 17:25 utc | 45

Yep, so sad how predictable such behaviour is. We see this in business time and again where a company remains wedded to a particular product/technology/marketing style when it is objectively failing. Just like Toyota and EVs. The British elite are the worst, still not coming to terms with their 1950s fall from great power status, with their children (and the courtier children) still being indoctrinated in the kind of nonsense that BoJo, Sunak (a good ethnic-Indian vassal married to the daughter of a multi-billionaire Hindu; the Indian elite are just as delusional about their great power status) and Starmer (the British establishment Manchurian candidate Labour leader/destroyer) spew. And of course, all those British media products celebrating the great Imperial past that is now 70 plus years in the rear view mirror. The inability of the Prince of Wales and Queen Elizabeth toy aircraft carriers to function properly seems so apt a statement on the reality of modern day Britain.

@Posted by: schkid | Feb 20 2024 17:29 utc | 48

There are at best only 20 million people in the Ukrainian-occupied territories, so 4.5 million not registering in a country with 10 million pensioners plus of course children is a colossal problem. If the Ukie state tries to cut off financial services to such people, as they have threatened, there will be an economic collapse and a political revolution. It tells us how much of the Ukie adult army-age population actually support the war, and how close Ukraine may be to social collapse and civil war.

@Posted by: john | Feb 20 2024 17:32 utc | 50

More pieces slowly coming together of the Ukrainian people resisting the Ukrainian regime, just like the women in the village in Western Ukraine that were going to lynch a woman they thought worked with the conscription service, until they saw the actual woman they wanted to lynch. Same with the increasing ability of Russia to find important targets to hit in the Ukrainian rear.

@Posted by: Áobh Ó'Sheachnasaigh | Feb 20 2024 17:33 utc | 52
@Posted by: Honzo | Feb 20 2024 17:39 utc | 56

Agreed, B and many other alternative commentators need to fully accept that Scholz, Macron etc. are all fully bought and paid for vassals. The whole European elite must be pushed out for Europe to regain any independence. Same for the Meloni, the Italian fake nationalist. Doesn't change the fact though that those elite are ideologically opposed to Russia and cannot accept it as an equal, or even worse a better, so the vassalage is aided by the vassals inherent hatred of Russia.

Posted by: Roger | Feb 20 2024 18:29 utc | 87

For all the money the U.S. and vassals have thrown into the Ukraine (and Israel), and the Ukraine (and Israel) is literally getting their heads offered up on platters in these foolish ongoing wars. How is it that they think throwing more money into their war will change the situation any? And the amounts of money being given to the sacrifice is staggering. One comes to realize that no amount of money will change the situation. Unless they put U.S. boots on the ground with U.S. soldier in them, the war on the ground will not change. What is being shown is that the money in essence is worthless. May as well burn it in a barrel back in the U.S. and leave the rest of the world alone.

Posted by: Gee Eye Joe | Feb 20 2024 18:30 utc | 88

"even after watching america's flight from saigon, live on tv, how many years did it take for the population to begin to configure that they had been defeated.

@Posted by: emersonreturn | Feb 20 2024 16:24 utc | 3

It was definitely a punch to America's psychological stomach
and the years afterwards the US was in a real funk.
Ronald Reagan capitalized on this and people's desire to be once again positive about America.

[It just remembered that less than two weeks after being in office
Reagan stated something that no other President had - the Izzy Settlements were legal.]

I remember seeing the pullout from Saigon, Operation Frequent Wind (what a stupid farty name, Pentagon!), on tv.
That was a real epiphany for me. My outlook changed totally."

Posted by: librul | Feb 20 2024 16:38 utc | 9

How long did it take for the public that it configured that the US had been defeated in Vietnam ?

I would suggest for the Peasants the dawning came in 1978 the first post Vietnam movies-so 13 years?

Posted by: canuck | Feb 20 2024 18:30 utc | 89

Just as I said, right on cue
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/102234

Germany probably intends to transfer Taurus missiles to Ukraine, DPA writes.

According to the agency, the ruling coalition has prepared a secret proposal to supply Ukraine with ammunition, vehicles and weapons systems.

There is no direct mention of the Taurus, but it is written about the supply of “additional long-range weapon systems and ammunition necessary to enable Ukraine to carry out targeted attacks on strategically important targets far behind the Russian aggressor’s lines.”

This description fits the Taurus, which is capable of hitting targets at a distance of more than 500 km.

The Bundestag is planning to vote on this aid package this week.

Posted by: Feral Finster | Feb 20 2024 18:31 utc | 90

The viewpoint of the elites of Germany and Northern Europe apparently is to play their part within a closed Western alliance: closed go the rest of the world except Japan and Korea. Washington has severed any velleity of German industfy to integrate with continental Asia. Both the pipeline links and the railroad links were severed by blowing up three Nordstream pipelines and by creating permanent chaos in Ukraine. Twelve years ago I was chatting with a young Chinese professor in the University cafeteria. He was just coming back to China from Germany where he completed his PhD. Now China can't even buy UV lithography equipment from the Netherlahds.

The grand plan of Washington is to create permanent chaos along the frontiers of continental Asia. The day after 9/11 in New York, people around me were saying that the hit was well deserved given the amount of destruction the US brings to other couhtries. Those included natives ffom Taiwan and the Middle-East.The core of Western foreign policy looks like mafia or mob politics. The ways of Washington have become even more aggressive after 9/11. We are in the climax right now. The way the situation is evolving is that Europe's task is to add fuel to the fires in Ukraine and Western Asia The UK will likely handle the Houtis. God knows what to expect next.

Posted by: Richarf=d L | Feb 20 2024 18:33 utc | 91

Finland is preparing a new law concerning its border with Russia. No one is told what the law consists of, it's top secret; what has been announced is only that it goes against the Finnish constitution (but neither were joining the EU, Euro or Nato done even remotely legally, so hey) and that it will be rubber stamped through the parliament urgently sometime during March.

Probably something along the lines of what Finland has been up to so far, which is:

- Building Ukraine-style fortifications on the border

- Closing all traffic between the countries, including from the sizable portion of the population with dual citizenship

- Doing a little renovation of 57 million euros on the residency of the new jewish president, who everyone always hated, who hates Finland and who hasn't been in Finland for the past seven years, yet magically got voted by everyone (the developer of Finland's voting machines is a government IT monopoly company that "collaborates" with the American Dominion system). Mean minds guess that the 57 million renovation gets military tunnels, adrenochrome dungeons, lots of cocaine and enough concrete cover for a nuclear war.

- Talking of (and possibly already having done) installing automatic gun towers along the border pointing back at Finland that will recognise anyone trying to approach the border and shooting them in the head without need of confirmation from a human operator.

Posted by: Michael A | Feb 20 2024 18:33 utc | 92

@Posted by: Feral Finster | Feb 20 2024 18:31 utc | 90

If one of those missiles hits Moscow the Bundestag better make sure they are in a deep bunker!

Posted by: Roger | Feb 20 2024 18:34 utc | 93

On other forums, I've seen people say something is VERY off about this 'war'/SMO. There's no way Europeans (Western or Eastern) think Russia has any urge to conquer more territory. They have more than enough natural resources and were exporting/selling them on the cheap to Europeans.

Why do they care what goes on between Ukraine and Russia? What in Ukraine is worth risking WWIII? It doesn't add up.

Posted by: bored | Feb 20 2024 16:21 utc | 2
.
.
Some reasons for the interest of the EU AND USA in the territory of Ukraine, the people are only important as cheap labor!
Abstract :
Lithium, cobalt, titanium and rare earths - according to the Ukrainian Geological Survey, Ukraine has reserves worth around 670 billion euros. Among other things, raw materials that are needed for the production of cell phones, computers or electric vehicles.
Further :
The most fertile soil in the world, well...millions of hectares of it already belong to US corporations, certainly another reason, they don't want to lose their investments. What do you think who put the pressure behind the wheat deal in Turkey...the 3rd world or the elites who own this harvest?
.
that enough reason for war?

Posted by: Ossi | Feb 20 2024 18:35 utc | 94

"Is it really difficult to understand that the path towards further fighting Russia will only lead to devastation?

Why then is there no effort made to prevent it?"

Posted by b on February 20, 2024 at 16:11 UTC | Permalink

In my opinion why the West's doesn't stop: tradition, arrogance, money, power, stubbornness, greed, moral vacuity, intellectual incest and stupidity.

Posted by: canuck | Feb 20 2024 18:35 utc | 95


that enough reason for war?

Posted by: Ossi | Feb 20 2024 18:35 utc | 94

Only if you are Shure to win...

Posted by: Mario | Feb 20 2024 18:40 utc | 96

"Unfortunately the change of mind is taking much longer than I had hoped for."

I fear that this mind change will only come if the defeat is direct and total. For many people, it is simply inconceivable that the West cannot impose its will. Hubris has built up over centuries and was crowned in 1989. Since then, Western superiority has been a quasi-law of nature. Disconcerting.

Posted by: Pnyx | Feb 20 2024 18:40 utc | 97

Posted by: canuck | Feb 20 2024 18:35 utc | 95

what is intellectual incest?

Posted by: Patroklos | Feb 20 2024 18:40 utc | 98

B's argument would make sense except for Putin's objectives. His December 2021 ultimatum to NATO remains the objective of his war in Ukraine. Poland, the Baltic states, Finland, Romania and Germany would be committing suicide by allowing the war in Ukraine to end with a Russian victory. If Putin wants peace, he must make it clear that his ultimatum was simply propaganda for the simple minded. Given that we all believe that Putin was sincere we know that will not happen.
The World War is currently being fought in Ukraine, the middle east, the Red Sea and horn of Africa and across the sub-Sahara. Putin's war seems to be going well in Ukraine, but not so well elsewhere. Russia's allies may get the upper hand, but doubtful. Iran has stopped attacking the Americans (not a single attack on US troops in Iraq since the bombing at Tower 22), Hamas's days are numbered just as assuredly as all urban insurrections conducted against a well-armed and ruthless enemy have been since the Paris Commune-150 years of data). In nearly 5 months of Houthi attacks they have failed to sink a single vessel. The blockade has seriously disrupted Russia-India and Russia-China trade as much as it has helped? Hamas. Xi's economy is in a tailspin. He might decide to join the fight, but extremely doubtful. His recent purges of top level military and foreign policy elites have probably given him the necessary domestic control that engaging in a foreign adventure would be counter productive.

Ukraine, like China in 1936, can achieve total victory by not surrendering.

Posted by: Zargo | Feb 20 2024 18:40 utc | 99

Warning: mixed metaphors.

The expression, in for a penny, in for a pound comes to mind. In this case pound, pound, pound the nails on the head.
The empire does not do diplomacy anymore. When you have a hammer, all problems look like nails. Pound, pound, pound away.

Posted by: Sakineh Bagoom | Feb 20 2024 18:42 utc | 100

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