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February 9, 2024
Palestine Open Thread 2024-043
Only for news & views directly related to the war in Palestine. The current open thread for other issues is here. Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Open (Neither Ukraine Nor Palestine) Thread 2024-042
News & views (not related to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine) …
Ukraine SitRep: A Hated New Commander – Critical Lack Of Infantry
The Ukrainian President Zelenski has fired the commander in chief of the Ukrainian armed forces General Zaluzny. Zaluzny was replaced by General Syrski, a somewhat unexpected choice as Syrski is hated by the troops for pushing them into meat grinders without a perspective of winning. Syrski, who was born as a Russian, had lost the cauldron battles of Debaltsevo (2015), Soledar (2023) and Bakhmut (2023). Currently Avdeevka is in a cauldron and likely to fall. Rumors say that Syrski already ordered reserves to reinforce the troops in Avdeevka. Russian FAB bombs will welcome them. The Economist describes Syrski as thus:
Simplicius discusses the most plausible reason why Zalauzny got fired and Syrski promoted: Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep: A Hated New Commander – Critical Lack Of Infantry February 8, 2024
Ukraine SitRep: Finally A Wonder-Weapon That Does What It Promised To Do
The battle of Avdeevka is about to be finished. The city of Avdeevka, (not to be confused with the small town of Andreevka near Bakhmut), is situated immediately north-west of Donetsk city. It has been used for years as a Ukrainian fortress well positioned for artillery attacks on Donetsk. The whole city, and especially the coke and chemical plant in its northern sector, was well prepared to defend against Russian attacks. But despite all attempts to hold on to it the Ukrainian garrison within the city is about to be encircled and fall. ![]() Source: Live UA Map – bigger The Russian attacks are coming from multiple directions and are more progressed than the Ukraine friendly map above is showing. The biggest danger to the Ukrainians is the Russian move in the north west which threatens to cut the city off from its supply line through the northern coal and chemical plant. The Russian victory in this battle was accomplished with the help of one type of weapon created during the current war in Ukraine. In the early 1990s the U.S. developed a strap on kit for unguided bombs that turned dumb weapons into precise ammunition. The Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) is … Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep: Finally A Wonder-Weapon That Does What It Promised To Do
U.S. Escalates War – Strikes Group Which Had Followed Orders To Stand Down
Updated below (9:00 UTC): On January 28 a drone strike killed U.S. soldiers near an (illegal) U.S. base on the Syrian/Iraqi/Jordan border triangle. The attack followed after open U.S. support for the Israeli attempt to genocide Gaza. Yesterday a U.S. 'retaliation' strike on leaders of an Iraqi militia under the command of the Iraqi Ministry of Interior killed two top officers of Kataib Hezbullah. (The Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah is not related to Hezbullah in Lebanon): U.S. Strike in Baghdad Kills Iranian-Backed Militia Commander (archived) – New York Times, Feb 7 2024
The U.S. strike came days after Kataib Hezbullah had promised to follow orders from the Iraqi government to stand down and to cease all hostile activities. As Reuters reported last week: Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah says it suspends attacks on US forces – Reuters, Jan 30 2024
The order to stand down had come from the Prime Minister of Iraq but was also supported by the government of Iran which has some ideological influence on Kataib Hizbullah: Cont. reading: U.S. Escalates War – Strikes Group Which Had Followed Orders To Stand Down February 7, 2024
New York Times Defames Iraq’s Militia As ‘Foreign Elements’
The New York Times engages in a mischievous attempt to depict Iraq's popular mobilization forces as an element that is foreign to Iraq and under Iranian control. Iraq Hosts Both U.S. and Iranian-Backed Forces. It’s Getting Tense. (archived) – New York Times, Feb 7 2024 This is from the get go of the headline blatant nonsense:
How is the U.S. foreign occupation force, that has been ordered by a majority in the Iraqi parliament to leave the country, comparable to militia groups of Iraqis founded by the Iraqi government, paid by it, and under its direct control? It ain't. The Popular Mobilization Force … Cont. reading: New York Times Defames Iraq’s Militia As ‘Foreign Elements’
MBS Says John Kirby Needs Some Mouth Wash
Saudi Arabia isn't happy with claims made by NSC spokesperson John Kirby: On-the-Record Press Gaggle by NSC Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby – White House, Feb 6 2024
Kirby says US received ‘positive feedback’ on Israel-Saudi normalization talks – Times of Israel (via Reuters), Feb 6 2024
The Saudis disagreed with that characterization: February 6, 2024
This Picture Shows One Man And A Zionist Goon
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Ukraine – An Army Without Officers Has No Chance Of Winning
Most of the Western public does not know about military issues. While people may identify someone who wears a uniform as a soldier they will have difficulties to understand the unit insignia, rank badges or tactical notations all regular soldiers are wearing. The lack of knowledge of military details makes it difficult to understand media reports of frontline issues. An example for this can be seen in the basic disposition of a frontline battalion. A battalion is a 400 to 1,000 men unit specialized around some vehicle or form of fighting. Pure infantry battalions will walk and fight on foot or travel longer marches on trucks. Mechanized infantry has armored fighting vehicles that transport troops but also have some minor guns to cover the loading or unloading of their soldiers. Tank battalions have armored hulks with larger guns designed to punch through hardened enemy lines. Artillery battalions have large caliber howitzers or missiles to deliver fire from a distance. A brigade, consisting of several battalions of different types, may mix those as appropriate for the current fight. A battalion itself will consist of four to six companies. Each company will have three to four platoons. Platoons, generally some 30 men strong, are led by Lieutenants. The company, consisting of several platoons is commanded by a Captain. The leader of the first platoon of a company is often a seasoned Lieutenant who is doubling as the deputy company commander. The next higher organization, the battalion is led by a Lieutenant Colonel with the help of a battalion staff. That staff, split into four (or more) sections known as S1 to S4, is taking care of the battalions own personnel, the enemy situation, the rearward (reserve) battalion command post and the logistics. These sections are led by a seasoned Lieutenant (S1), a Captain (S2), a Major (S3) who is also the deputy battalion commander, and another Captain (S4) for logistics. There may be additional officer positions like the battalion doctor, the technical officer, or a military intelligence section leader. All together a battalion has some 12+ Lieutenants as platoon leaders, 4 Captains as company leaders, a battalion staff consisting of 1 or two additional seasoned Lieutenants, one or two additional Captains, one or two additional Majors and, at the top, a Lieutenant Colonel. That's a total of about 10+ junior officers and some 10+ more seasoned or higher ranking officers. Now lets look at a fleeting line in a recent New York Times report: Cont. reading: Ukraine – An Army Without Officers Has No Chance Of Winning February 5, 2024
In The Middle East The U.S. Has Reached The End Of Its Abilities
The Biden administration is trying everything to better the situation for the Israeli government except by withdrawing its financial and munition support which are the only two measures that could bring Israel to its senses. There are now several small wars in the Middle East which may soon accumulate into a big one. Israel is fighting Hamas and the Islamic Jihad in Gaza. It is fighting a silent resistance in the West Bank. On its norther borders it is involved in daily clashes with Hizbullah and various Palestinian resistance groups. Israel is also bombing Syria and killing Iranian envoys to that country. Iraqi and Syrian resistance groups are attacking U.S. bases in Syria and Iraq. The U.S. is bombing these groups for more or less therapeutic purposes while trying to not hurt them too much. In the Red Sea the Ansarullah government of Yemen is blocking sea traffic related to Israel, the U.S. and UK. The U.S. and UK are bombing Ansarullah positions even as they know that no amount of bombing will change its position. People in other Arab countries, while seemingly calm, are enraged over Israel's genocidal behavior in Gaza. Their leaders try to keep their distances from the wars but at some point may well be forced to take sides in it. Meanwhile the U.S., the alleged superpower, is hapless and helplessly trying to achieve results that are way beyond its abilities. See for one example the last attempt by a U.S. envoy to prevent a further escalation with Lebanon: US presents new blueprint to push Hezbollah away from Israeli border – Ynetnews, Feb 4 2024
Nice plan. But what can you do to implement it? How in hell will the U.S. be able to make Hezbollah to cease hostilities actions along the border with Israel and to retreat between eight to ten kilometers from the border? Hizbullah fighters at the border are living in the border towns. They were born there. They want to die there. How the f*** does the U.S. think they can be pushed out? And why would Hizbullah agree to a ceasefire when the murdering of Palestinians in Gaza continues to be the major project of Israel? The U.S. has no means, none, to press Hizbullah into a ceasefire or to push it to retreat from the border line. The Lebanese government supports that move? Sure, verbally, as long as you cough up some money. But Hizbullah is part of that government. It is also the superior military power in Lebanon. Neither the Lebanese army nor the U.N. forces have the ability to fight it. Step one is thereby meaningless. Step two, a promise for negotiations between Israel and Lebanon, makes likewise no sense as Israel is notoriously unwilling to make any concessions. If baseless fantasies like the above are all the U.S. can come up with it is truly at the end of its abilities. A chance of a war between Israel and Hizbullah in Lebanon is increasing daily. While there are already daily clashes these are limited by certain red lines and targets. Both sides still avoid to cross those. But Israel's government needs a victory. Its war aims in Gaza are clearly not achievable. Losses are mounting. Its population, especially the settlers from the north who had to flee their homes, are unruly. Alastair Crooke thinks (vid) that Israel will start a full out war with Hizbullah simply because the Israeli government needs a victory. He thinks that Netanyahoo still thinks he can achieve one. Others though have their doubts. Hizbullah today is far better equipped and trained than it had been during the 2006 war with Israel. That war ended in a draw or, as some see it, with a defeat of Israel. I know of no expert in that area who thinks that Israel today would fare any better than that. I'd say let them try. The may well learn from it. But why the Biden administration even thinks that it can stop such a clash by presenting plans it has no means to press for is beyond me. February 4, 2024
Palestine Open Thread 2024-041
Only for news & views directly related to the war in Palestine. The current open thread for other issues is here. Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-040
Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine. The current open thread for other issues is here. Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
The MoA Week In Review – OT 2024-039
Last week's post on Moon of Alabama: Middle East:
To understand how over its head the U.S. is here just read this confused AP summary report: US, Britain strike Yemen’s Houthis in a new wave, retaliating for attacks by Iran-backed militants – AP, Feb 4 2024
Ukraine:
The mask is coming off:
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— February 3, 2024
Ending The U.S. Presence In Middle East
The Biden administration, in its utter stupidity, is launching a(nother) full fledged war throughout the Middle East. U.S. launches retaliatory strikes after deadly attack on Jordan base – Washington Post – Feb 3, 2024
In 2020, after the U.S. assassination of General Qassam Suleimani, the leadership of Iran announced that, in consequence, the U.S. presence in the Middle East will be ended. Iran and its allies have since diligently prepared themselves to achieve that aim. The hot phase of the process itself was initiated primarily by Hamas on October 7 (which followed the October 2 desecration of Al-Aqsa Mosque by Zionist settlers). The secondary and tertiary steps were launched by Ansarollah in Yemen and Kataib Hizbullah in Iraq. In each cases the U.S. and its Israeli proxy responded with harsh escalations. It was the biggest mistake they could make.
Syrian military statement: US occupation cannot persist – Al Mayadeen – Feb 3, 2024
The Axis of Resistance is present throughout the Middle East. It has its own economic and social networks. It produces its own weapons and its fighters are well trained to fight under the local circumstances. This is an enemy the U.S. can not defeat. As Aaron Maté explains: February 2, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-038
Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine. The current open thread for other issues is here. Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Boycott, Divestment And Sanctions
Despite its utter cruelty and destructiveness Israel is far from achieving its goal of ethnic cleansing Gaza. It also has not even dared yet to attack Hizbullah in south Lebanon. This while Zionists settlers had to move out of the areas surrounding Gaza and from the ground near to the Lebanese border. Netanyahoo is in a trap. He has to 'do something' to allow for the return of the internal refugees to their homes. But any action towards that will cause more death of his troops and may well hurt Israel's strategic viability. It seems that the Zionist idea of a settler colony exclusively for Jews is coming, slowly but surely, to its inevitable end. There have long be signs of this. The boycott, divestment and sanctions campaign (BDS) against Israel has been continuously growing. I remember that some decades ago groceries in Germany were selling 'Jaffa oranges'. These were from Israel – good fruits by the way – but already back then a constant and more or less silent campaign was underway to shun Israeli products. 'Jaffa oranges' are no longer marketed here. I presume that are now used to produce orange juice which can be sold without naming the country from where the fruits in the juice came from. There were other failed attempts to sell Israeli produce into European markets. A year or two ago some local Aldi store had potatoes for sale with the country of origin marked as 'Israel/Germany'. I talked to the sales manager and protested against that designation. He admitted that it was wrong to use two origins for one product but complained that if he would label the origin as 'Israel' nobody would buy them. I have since seen no potatoes from Israel. People check the country of origin when they buy tangerines. Others check the first three numbers of the barcode on canned products. Anything that starts with 729 comes from a company registered in Israel. I don't buy those neither should you. During my time as an IT executive I had worked with network managers who would shun any equipment from Israel. Not only because there was a high risk that it could be used for espionage but out of principle concern over Israeli policies. Back in October Starbucks had sued Workers United – the union organizing its employees — because the union had posted a pro-Palestinian message on social media. The result was a global call to boycott Starbucks. Its success is astonishing: World's biggest coffee chain cuts sales forecast and misses market expectations amid boycotts – MSN, Jan 31 2024
Boycotting Israel related products is the one small thing each and everyone of us can do without much effort of strain. Over time it will be successful. February 1, 2024
Palestine Open Thread 2024-037
Only for news & views directly related to the war in Palestine. The current open thread for other issues is here. Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Ukraine – The Power Scuffle Continues
The scuffle in Kiev over replacing the Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine General Valeri Zaluzny continues. CNN reports that he will be fired within the next 48 hours. Zelensky set to announce dismissal of Ukraine’s top commander within days as rift grows over war, source says – CNN, Jan 31, 2024 This will not go down well with the electorate and, moreover, with the soldiers of the Ukrainian forces:
Or, as the Washington Post provides:
The German boulevard broadsheet Bild names one of the plausible reasons for the current conflict:
Avdeevka is nearly surrounded and any attempts to hold onto it will cost many valuable lives of soldiers for no discernible advantage. But, just like with Bakhmut, Zelenski wants to hold on to the city to be be able point his western sponsors to some 'successes'. My hunch is that, after Monday's kerfuffle in Kiev, the decision to fire Zaluzny was still hanging in balance. The change now only happened after the noeconservative destroyer of Ukraine, Victoria Nuland, had landed in Kiev. She made some awkward predictions: |
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