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February 9, 2024
Palestine Open Thread 2024-043

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Palestine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Open (Neither Ukraine Nor Palestine) Thread 2024-042

News & views (not related to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine) …

Ukraine SitRep: A Hated New Commander – Critical Lack Of Infantry

The Ukrainian President Zelenski has fired the commander in chief of the Ukrainian armed forces General Zaluzny.

Zaluzny was replaced by General Syrski, a somewhat unexpected choice as Syrski is hated by the troops for pushing them into meat grinders without a perspective of winning. Syrski, who was born as a Russian, had lost the cauldron battles of Debaltsevo (2015), Soledar (2023) and Bakhmut (2023). Currently Avdeevka is in a cauldron and likely to fall.

Rumors say that Syrski already ordered reserves to reinforce the troops in Avdeevka. Russian FAB bombs will welcome them.

The Economist describes Syrski as thus:

General Syrsky has a reputation for being willing to engage the enemy, even if the cost in men and machines is high. He is a divisive figure who provokes strong reactions from serving officers. Some praise his professionalism, others say he terrifies his subordinates and rules by fear. He is less likely to question the priorities of his president. As he takes on the top job, he will have to soften his style of command and learn to speak truth to power.

The reorganisation will also cause disruption as officers shift to new positions in the chain of command. It is important that these changes do not degrade Ukraine’s capacity to fight. Before long, the country will need a new mobilisation even if General Syrsky uses his troops mostly for defence—as, for now, he should.

Simplicius discusses the most plausible reason why Zalauzny got fired and Syrski promoted:

Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep: A Hated New Commander – Critical Lack Of Infantry

February 8, 2024
Ukraine SitRep: Finally A Wonder-Weapon That Does What It Promised To Do

The battle of Avdeevka is about to be finished.

The city of Avdeevka, (not to be confused with the small town of Andreevka near Bakhmut), is situated immediately north-west of Donetsk city. It has been used for years as a Ukrainian fortress well positioned for artillery attacks on Donetsk. The whole city, and especially the coke and chemical plant in its northern sector, was well prepared to defend against Russian attacks.

But despite all attempts to hold on to it the Ukrainian garrison within the city is about to be encircled and fall.


Source: Live UA Mapbigger

The Russian attacks are coming from multiple directions and are more progressed than the Ukraine friendly map above is showing. The biggest danger to the Ukrainians is the Russian move in the north west which threatens to cut the city off from its supply line through the northern coal and chemical plant.

The Russian victory in this battle was accomplished with the help of one type of weapon created during the current war in Ukraine.

In the early 1990s the U.S. developed a strap on kit for unguided bombs that turned dumb weapons into precise ammunition.

The Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) is …

Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep: Finally A Wonder-Weapon That Does What It Promised To Do

U.S. Escalates War – Strikes Group Which Had Followed Orders To Stand Down

Updated below (9:00 UTC):

On January 28 a drone strike killed U.S. soldiers near an (illegal) U.S. base on the Syrian/Iraqi/Jordan border triangle. The attack followed after open U.S. support for the Israeli attempt to genocide Gaza.

Yesterday a U.S. 'retaliation' strike on leaders of an Iraqi militia under the command of the Iraqi Ministry of Interior killed two top officers of Kataib Hezbullah. (The Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah is not related to Hezbullah in Lebanon):

U.S. Strike in Baghdad Kills Iranian-Backed Militia Commander (archived) – New York Times, Feb 7 2024

Videos from the scene showed the charred wreckage of a vehicle in a neighborhood of eastern Baghdad, and a nearby fire.

A senior Kata’ib Hezbollah official and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps both said that two commanders had been killed in the strike. Witnesses said identification cards found nearby identified them as Arkan al-Elayawi and Abu Bakir al-Saadi.

In response, crowds gathered at the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, chanting “America is the devil.”

Wednesday’s strike came after three quieter days in the Mideast, following American salvos on Friday and Saturday, the first in what Mr. Biden and his aides have said will be a sustained campaign of retaliation.

The U.S. strike came days after Kataib Hezbullah had promised to follow orders from the Iraqi government to stand down and to cease all hostile activities.

As Reuters reported last week:

Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah says it suspends attacks on US forcesReuters, Jan 30 2024

Iran-aligned Iraqi armed group Kataib Hezbollah announced on Tuesday the suspension of all its military operations against U.S. troops in the region, in a decision aimed at preventing "embarrassment" of the Iraqi government, the group said.

"As we announce the suspension of military and security operations against the occupation forces – in order to prevent embarrassment of the Iraqi government – we will continue to defend our people in Gaza in other ways," Kataib Hezbollah Secretary-General Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi said in a statement.

Three U.S. troops were killed in a drone attack near the Jordan-Syria border on Sunday that the Pentagon said bore the "footprints" of Kataib Hezbollah, though a final assessment had not yet been made.

A Pentagon spokesperson declined to comment on the group's statement, adding: "Actions speak louder than words."

The order to stand down had come from the Prime Minister of Iraq but was also supported by the government of Iran which has some ideological influence on Kataib Hizbullah:

Cont. reading: U.S. Escalates War – Strikes Group Which Had Followed Orders To Stand Down

February 7, 2024
New York Times Defames Iraq’s Militia As ‘Foreign Elements’

The New York Times engages in a mischievous attempt to depict Iraq's popular mobilization forces as an element that is foreign to Iraq and under Iranian control.

Iraq Hosts Both U.S. and Iranian-Backed Forces. It’s Getting Tense. (archived) – New York Times, Feb 7 2024
As Iranian-backed groups and American forces, both of which have bases in Iraq, lock horns around the Mideast, things are becoming uncomfortable for the Iraqi government.

This is from the get go of the headline blatant nonsense:

For years, Iraq has managed to pull off an unlikely balancing act, allowing armed forces tied to both the United States and Iran, an American nemesis, to operate on its soil.

Now things are getting shaky.

When Washington, Tehran and Baghdad all wanted the same thing — the defeat of the Islamic State terrorist group — the relationships were fairly tenable, but in recent months, as the war in the Gaza Strip sends ripples across the region, American and Iranian-backed forces have clashed repeatedly in Iraq and Syria. A U.S. strike on one of those militias last week killed 16 Iraqis, and Iraq is saying it has had enough.

“Our land and sovereign authority is not the right place for rival forces to send messages and show their strength.” the office of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said in a statement on Sunday.

For many years, both Iran and the United States had their proponents within the Iraqi government, and the Iranian-backed armed groups and the American troops lived in a tolerable if uneasy balance.

Now, Mr. Sudani’s government is sounding increasingly tough.

Its statement Sunday denouncing the fighting on its soil was particularly pointed in its criticism of the United States, describing last week’s attack in western Iraq as “a blatant aggression” that had jeopardized talks on reducing the number of American troops in Iraq. “Violence only begets violence,” the statement warned.

How is the U.S. foreign occupation force, that has been ordered by a majority in the Iraqi parliament to leave the country, comparable to militia groups of Iraqis founded by the Iraqi government, paid by it, and under its direct control?

It ain't.

The Popular Mobilization Force

Cont. reading: New York Times Defames Iraq’s Militia As ‘Foreign Elements’

MBS Says John Kirby Needs Some Mouth Wash

Saudi Arabia isn't happy with claims made by NSC spokesperson John Kirby:

On-the-Record Press Gaggle by NSC Coordinator for Strategic Communications John KirbyWhite House, Feb 6 2024

Q Hey, Kirby. Thank you so much for doing this. When America is talking about a hostages deal, is it part of a bigger deal of normalization with Saudi Arabia, or are we talking about two different paths here?

MR. KIRBY: No, these are two different things. […]

At the same time, we were, before the 7th of October, and are still now having discussions with our counterparts in the region, Israel and Saudi Arabia — obviously, the two key ones — about trying to move forward with a normalization arrangement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

So those discussions are ongoing as well. We certainly received positive feedback from both sides that they’re willing to continue to have those discussions. But that is a separate track and not related specifically to trying to get this extended humanitarian pause in place. Both are really important though.

Kirby says US received ‘positive feedback’ on Israel-Saudi normalization talksTimes of Israel (via Reuters), Feb 6 2024

The Biden administration has received positive feedback that Saudi Arabia and Israel are willing to continue to have normalization discussions, White House National Security spokesman John Kirby tells reporters today. …

The Saudis disagreed with that characterization:

Cont. reading: MBS Says John Kirby Needs Some Mouth Wash

February 6, 2024
This Picture Shows One Man And A Zionist Goon

Younis Tirawi | يونس @ytirawi – 11:52 UTC · Feb 5, 2024

Rimal Neighborhood, Gaza city |

Israeli soldier Yosee Gamzoo publish a picture showing him torturing a Palestinian civilian in West Gaza city.


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After some research. I have located the area.

This is a Christian kindergarten and school called “@GazaCollege”. It is east of Rimal Neighborhood but is in fact on Jala Street near Barbari gas station. Found more documentation

He was apparently injured by shrapnel from a bullet but the hit was not that deep.
video

The soldier has deleted the pictures and his insta profile

According to local sources. He is name is Hamza from Shujjaiya Neighborhood, East Gaza city.

Before his arrest in the footage above, Israeli military killed his father, his brother’s wife and his two nephews (infant and a child 2 yo), his brother was also killed back in 2014.

Ukraine – An Army Without Officers Has No Chance Of Winning

Most of the Western public does not know about military issues.

While people may identify someone who wears a uniform as a soldier they will have difficulties to understand the unit insignia, rank badges or tactical notations all regular soldiers are wearing. The lack of knowledge of military details makes it difficult to understand media reports of frontline issues.

An example for this can be seen in the basic disposition of a frontline battalion.

A battalion is a 400 to 1,000 men unit specialized around some vehicle or form of fighting.

Pure infantry battalions will walk and fight on foot or travel longer marches on trucks. Mechanized infantry has armored fighting vehicles that transport troops but also have some minor guns to cover the loading or unloading of their soldiers. Tank battalions have armored hulks with larger guns designed to punch through hardened enemy lines. Artillery battalions have large caliber howitzers or missiles to deliver fire from a distance.

A brigade, consisting of several battalions of different types, may mix those as appropriate for the current fight.

A battalion itself will consist of four to six companies. Each company will have three to four platoons.

Platoons, generally some 30 men strong, are led by Lieutenants. The company, consisting of several platoons is commanded by a Captain. The leader of the first platoon of a company is often a seasoned Lieutenant who is doubling as the deputy company commander.

The next higher organization, the battalion is led by a Lieutenant Colonel with the help of a battalion staff. That staff, split into four (or more) sections known as S1 to S4, is taking care of the battalions own personnel, the enemy situation, the rearward (reserve) battalion command post and the logistics.

These sections are led by a seasoned Lieutenant (S1), a Captain (S2), a Major (S3) who is also the deputy battalion commander, and another Captain (S4) for logistics. There may be additional officer positions like the battalion doctor, the technical officer, or a military intelligence section leader.

All together a battalion has some 12+ Lieutenants as platoon leaders, 4 Captains as company leaders, a battalion staff consisting of 1 or two additional seasoned Lieutenants, one or two additional Captains, one or two additional Majors and, at the top, a Lieutenant Colonel.

That's a total of about 10+ junior officers and some 10+ more seasoned or higher ranking officers.

Now lets look at a fleeting line in a recent New York Times report:

Cont. reading: Ukraine – An Army Without Officers Has No Chance Of Winning

February 5, 2024
In The Middle East The U.S. Has Reached The End Of Its Abilities

The Biden administration is trying everything to better the situation for the Israeli government except by withdrawing its financial and munition support which are the only two measures that could bring Israel to its senses.

There are now several small wars in the Middle East which may soon accumulate into a big one. Israel is fighting Hamas and the Islamic Jihad in Gaza. It is fighting a silent resistance in the West Bank. On its norther borders it is involved in daily clashes with Hizbullah and various Palestinian resistance groups.

Israel is also bombing Syria and killing Iranian envoys to that country. Iraqi and Syrian resistance groups are attacking U.S. bases in Syria and Iraq. The U.S. is bombing these groups for more or less therapeutic purposes while trying to not hurt them too much. In the Red Sea the Ansarullah government of Yemen is blocking sea traffic related to Israel, the U.S. and UK. The U.S. and UK are bombing Ansarullah positions even as they know that no amount of bombing will change its position.

People in other Arab countries, while seemingly calm, are enraged over Israel's genocidal behavior in Gaza. Their leaders try to keep their distances from the wars but at some point may well be forced to take sides in it.

Meanwhile the U.S., the alleged superpower, is hapless and helplessly trying to achieve results that are way beyond its abilities.

See for one example the last attempt by a U.S. envoy to prevent a further escalation with Lebanon:

US presents new blueprint to push Hezbollah away from Israeli borderYnetnews, Feb 4 2024

U.S. President Joe Biden's Middle East envoy Amos Hochstein outlined the key elements of a political settlement to deescalate tensions between Israel and Hezbollah during his visit to the Jewish state on Sunday.

The plan consists of two phases: In the first, Hezbollah would cease hostilities actions along the border with Israel and will retreat between eight to ten kilometers north from the border.

Israeli residents will return to their homes, and a significant deployment of the Lebanese army and UNIFIL peacekeeping forces will maintain stability in southern Lebanon and along the border.

In the second phase, Israel and Lebanon will begin negotiations to demarcate the land border, including discussions on 13 points on disputes along their shared boundaries. Simultaneously, the U.S. and the international community will explore offering "economic incentives" to Lebanon.

Hochstein received the green light from the Lebanese government for his proposal, though it remains unclear whether Hezbollah agrees with the arrangement.

The envoy, who recently met with President Isaac Herzog, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Minister Benny Gantz urged Israel to give his plan a chance.

Nice plan. But what can you do to implement it?

How in hell will the U.S. be able to make Hezbollah to cease hostilities actions along the border with Israel and to retreat between eight to ten kilometers from the border?

Hizbullah fighters at the border are living in the border towns. They were born there. They want to die there. How the f*** does the U.S. think they can be pushed out? And why would Hizbullah agree to a ceasefire when the murdering of Palestinians in Gaza continues to be the major project of Israel?

The U.S. has no means, none, to press Hizbullah into a ceasefire or to push it to retreat from the border line.

The Lebanese government supports that move? Sure, verbally, as long as you cough up some money. But Hizbullah is part of that government. It is also the superior military power in Lebanon. Neither the Lebanese army nor the U.N. forces have the ability to fight it.

Step one is thereby meaningless. Step two, a promise for negotiations between Israel and Lebanon, makes likewise no sense as Israel is notoriously unwilling to make any concessions.

If baseless fantasies like the above are all the U.S. can come up with it is truly at the end of its abilities.

A chance of  a war between Israel and Hizbullah in Lebanon is increasing daily. While there are already daily clashes these are limited by certain red lines and targets. Both sides still avoid to cross those.

But Israel's government needs a victory. Its war aims in Gaza are clearly not achievable. Losses are mounting. Its population, especially the settlers from the north who had to flee their homes, are unruly.

Alastair Crooke thinks (vid) that Israel will start a full out war with Hizbullah simply because the Israeli government needs a victory. He thinks that Netanyahoo still thinks he can achieve one. Others though have their doubts. Hizbullah today is far better equipped and trained than it had been during the 2006 war with Israel. That war ended in a draw or, as some see it, with a defeat of Israel. I know of no expert in that area who thinks that Israel today would fare any better than that.

I'd say let them try. The may well learn from it.

But why the Biden administration even thinks that it can stop such a clash by presenting plans it has no means to press for is beyond me.

February 4, 2024
Palestine Open Thread 2024-041

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Palestine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Ukraine Open Thread 2024-040

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

The MoA Week In Review – OT 2024-039

Last week's post on Moon of Alabama:

Middle East:

To understand how over its head the U.S. is here just read this confused AP summary report:

US, Britain strike Yemen’s Houthis in a new wave, retaliating for attacks by Iran-backed militantsAP, Feb 4 2024

The United States and Britain struck 36 Houthi targets in Yemen on Saturday in a second wave of assaults meant to further disable Iran-backed groups that have relentlessly attacked American and international interests in the wake of the Israel-Hamas war. But Washington once more did not directly target Iran as it tries to find a balance between a forceful response and intensifying the conflict.

The U.S. warned its response after the soldiers’ deaths at the Tower 22 base in Jordan last Sunday would not be limited to one night, one target or one group. While there has been no suggestion the Houthis were directly responsible, they have been one of the prime U.S. adversaries since Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, killing more than 1,200 people and taking about 250 hostages.

Ukraine:

The mask is coming off:

Ivan Katchanovski @I_Katchanovski – 16:51 UTC · Feb 2, 2024

Zaluzhny on eve of his expected firing by Zelensky shows his backing from far-right, which has power to overthrow Zelensky. Zaluzhny takes selfie with leader of far-right Right Sector & commander of Right Sector brigade of Ukrainian military in front of portrait of Nazi collaborator & far-right OUN leader Bandera & red & black flag of OUN-UPA & Right Sector.
link


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Kim Dotcom @KimDotcom – 9:15 UTC · Feb 3, 2024

A coup may come in Ukraine. Neither Nuland nor the CIA can protect Zelenskyy if the right-wing takes over. They only tolerated Zelenskyy because of Zaluzhny

Zelenskyy nicknames amongst Ukrainian Nazis: Homo Joker, Stuart Little, Pimple, Frodo, 1.5 meters, Mossad agent, Comedian.


Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2024-039

February 3, 2024
Ending The U.S. Presence In Middle East

The Biden administration, in its utter stupidity, is launching a(nother) full fledged war throughout the Middle East.

U.S. launches retaliatory strikes after deadly attack on Jordan baseWashington Post – Feb 3, 2024
The operation, targeting numerous sites in Iraq and Syria used by Iranian forces and its affiliates, followed the killing of American troops last weekend

> U.S. forces launched a broad attack against Iran’s powerful military wing and affiliated militias in Iraq and Syria on Friday, delivering a blow to armed groups that Washington has blamed for killing American troops in Jordan and a surge of violence across the Middle East. <

Daniel McAdams @DanielLMcAdams – 11:01 UTC · Feb 3, 2024

The Biden Administration just literally just blew up all the weapons of the Iraqi brigade that was fighting ISIS!
Let that sink in…

Hawkeye1812Z @Hawkeye1745 22:09 UTC · Feb 2, 2024

🇺🇸💥🇮🇶Footage shows the explosions of the headquarters of the Anbar Operation Command & the headquarters of the 13th Hashd al-Sha’bi Brigade, after it was targeted by US raids, in the Anbar province of Iraq

That is is unit which is fighting ISIS … 🤔
Embedded video

Secretary Antony Blinken @SecBlinken – 21:01 UTC · Feb 2, 2024

I am returning to the Middle East this coming week to continue working with our partners on how to achieve durable peace in the region, with lasting security for Israelis and Palestinians alike.

President Biden @POTUS – 22:45 UTC · Feb 2, 2024

Today, at my direction, U.S. military forces struck targets in Iraq and Syria that the IRGC and affiliated militia use to attack U.S. forces.

We do not seek conflict in the Middle East or anywhere else in the world.

But to all those who seek to do us harm: We will respond.

Elijah J. Magnier @ejmalrai – 14:11 UTC · Feb 3, 2024

The US: We don't want to escalate the war in the ME, but we bombed Yemen & killed 10 Yemenis, we bombed Syria & Iraq & killed 16 Iraqis, 7 Syrians, but please de-escalate coz we will bomb you more in the coming days. In the meantime we are sending bombs to Israel to bomb Gaza.

In 2020, after the U.S. assassination of General Qassam Suleimani, the leadership of Iran announced that, in consequence, the U.S. presence in the Middle East will be ended. Iran and its allies have since diligently prepared themselves to achieve that aim.

The hot phase of the process itself was initiated primarily by Hamas on October 7 (which followed the October 2 desecration of Al-Aqsa Mosque by Zionist settlers). The secondary and tertiary steps were launched by Ansarollah in Yemen and Kataib Hizbullah in Iraq.

In each cases the U.S. and its Israeli proxy responded with harsh escalations.

It was the biggest mistake they could make.

agitpapa @agitpapa – 15:07 UTC · Feb 3, 2024

Harakat al Nujaba PMF declares that it will not be defeated or subdued by US airstrikes and vows to teach the US humility with fire, says it has surprises in store.
Attached image

Syrian military statement: US occupation cannot persistAl Mayadeen – Feb 3, 2024
In its statement, Syria's military emphasizes that the US is working on reviving ISIS in Syria and Iraq.

> The statement also affirmed that the Syrian army will continue to defend Syria's land and people, and strike all terrorist groups, regardless of how much their sponsors and supporters try to obstruct this goal. It added that it is determined to liberate the entire Syrian territory from all terrorism and occupation, including the US occupation which "cannot persist." <

The Axis of Resistance is present throughout the Middle East. It has its own economic and social networks. It produces its own weapons and its fighters are well trained to fight under the local circumstances. This is an enemy the U.S. can not defeat.

As Aaron Maté explains:

Cont. reading: Ending The U.S. Presence In Middle East

February 2, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-038

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Boycott, Divestment And Sanctions

Despite its utter cruelty and destructiveness Israel is far from achieving its goal of ethnic cleansing Gaza. It also has not even dared yet to attack Hizbullah in south Lebanon. This while Zionists settlers had to move out of the areas surrounding Gaza and from the ground near to the Lebanese border.

Netanyahoo is in a trap. He has to 'do something' to allow for the return of the internal refugees to their homes. But any action towards that will cause more death of his troops and may well hurt Israel's strategic viability.

It seems that the Zionist idea of a settler colony exclusively for Jews is coming, slowly but surely, to its inevitable end.

There have long be signs of this. The boycott, divestment and sanctions campaign (BDS) against Israel has been continuously growing.

I remember that some decades ago groceries in Germany were selling 'Jaffa oranges'. These were from Israel – good fruits by the way – but already back then a constant and more or less silent campaign was underway to shun Israeli products. 'Jaffa oranges' are no longer marketed here. I presume that are now used to produce orange juice which can be sold without naming the country from where the fruits in the juice came from.

There were other failed attempts to sell Israeli produce into European markets. A year or two ago some local Aldi store had potatoes for sale with the country of origin marked as 'Israel/Germany'. I talked to the sales manager and protested against that designation. He admitted that it was wrong to use two origins for one product but complained that if he would label the origin as 'Israel' nobody would buy them.

I have since seen no potatoes from Israel.

People check the country of origin when they buy tangerines. Others check the first three numbers of the barcode on canned products. Anything that starts with 729 comes from a company registered in Israel. I don't buy those neither should you.

During my time as an IT executive I had worked with network managers who would shun any equipment from Israel. Not only because there was a high risk that it could be used for espionage but out of principle concern over Israeli policies.

Back in October Starbucks had sued Workers United – the union organizing its employees — because the union had posted a pro-Palestinian message on social media. The result was a global call to boycott Starbucks. Its success is astonishing:

World's biggest coffee chain cuts sales forecast and misses market expectations amid boycottsMSN, Jan 31 2024

The world's biggest coffee chain told investors on Tuesday night there was a "significant impact on traffic and sales" in the Middle East due to the Israel-Hamas conflict.

The impact was also felt in the US as boycotts of the chain took place, chief executive Laxman Narasimhan told attendees of a post-quarterly earnings conference call.

Some had avoided Starbucks in the Middle East and US after it took legal action in October against Workers United for using Starbucks's name and similar logo.

A post from the union's social media account in October expressed solidarity with the Palestinian people before being deleted.

Boycotting Israel related products is the one small thing each and everyone of us can do without much effort of strain.

Over time it will be successful.

February 1, 2024
Palestine Open Thread 2024-037

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Palestine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Ukraine – The Power Scuffle Continues

The scuffle in Kiev over replacing the Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine General Valeri Zaluzny continues.

CNN reports that he will be fired within the next 48 hours.

Zelensky set to announce dismissal of Ukraine’s top commander within days as rift grows over war, source saysCNN, Jan 31, 2024

This will not go down well with the electorate and, moreover, with the soldiers of the Ukrainian forces:

A poll published by the Kyiv Institute of Sociology in December found 88% of Ukrainians supported the top general. Zelensky’s approval rating, though also high, was considerably lower at 62%.

Or, as the Washington Post provides:

It is far from clear that any new commander will be able to improve Ukraine’s difficult situation on the battlefield without significantly more forces and weapons — precisely what Zaluzhny has demanded of Zelensky, adding tension to what was already a fraying relationship.

Zaluzhny’s popularity — both within the military and among ordinary citizens — makes his removal a political gamble for Zelensky. It also poses strategic risks at a time when Russia has intensified its attacks and Western security assistance for Kyiv has slowed. The general has built strong rapport with his Western counterparts and has often been able to advocate directly for certain materiel and seek counsel on battlefield strategy.

Both Budanov and Syrsky are considered favorites of Zelensky and Andriy Yermak, the chief of the presidential office and Zelensky’s closest adviser. Nearer the front, however, there seems to be little appetite for change.

“My personal opinion is you can’t do something like this right now — Zaluzhny is someone 80 percent of the military considers a good authority,” said Oleksandr, a battalion commander fighting in eastern Ukraine.

“For what is he being removed? It’s not clear. And who will replace him? Syrsky? God, I hope not. No one in the army likes Syrsky,” Oleksandr added.

The German boulevard broadsheet Bild names one of the plausible reasons for the current conflict:

The Bild publication writes that Zaluzhny wanted to withdraw troops from Avdiivka a few weeks ago, but Zelensky refused him this and on December 30 he personally went to the city to the front line to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters.

So all the coffins that arrived from near Avdeevka to Ukraine since December 30 are solely on the conscience of Zelensky and his passion for narcissism.

Avdeevka is nearly surrounded and any attempts to hold onto it will cost many valuable lives of soldiers for no discernible advantage. But, just like with Bakhmut, Zelenski wants to hold on to the city to be be able point his western sponsors to some 'successes'.

My hunch is that, after Monday's kerfuffle in Kiev, the decision to fire Zaluzny was still hanging in balance.

The change now only happened after the noeconservative destroyer of Ukraine, Victoria Nuland, had landed in Kiev.

She made some awkward predictions:

Cont. reading: Ukraine – The Power Scuffle Continues

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