Only for news & views directly related to the war in Palestine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Last week's post on Moon of Alabama:

Blogging:

• February 12 – "You Didn't Even Post. So What Did You Do Today?"
  Related:
  – State Department Threatens Congress Over Censorship Programs? – Racket, Feb 17 2024

Ukraine:

• February 13 – Ukraine SitRep: A Collapse Is Coming – And Then?
• February 16 – The End Of The Avdeevka Cauldron
• February 17 – The Ukrainian Art Of Coping
  Related:
  – The Insanity of War – Tarik Cyril Amar, Feb 16 2024
  – The Seals And The Dow – Seymour Hersh, Feb 16 2024
  – Ukraine Crushingly Defeated at ICJ – Al Mayadeen, Feb 15 2024
  – The idea of total Ukrainian victory is delusional – The Hill, Feb 15 2024
  – James Meek · Two Armies in One: What now for Ukraine? – LRB, Feb 22 2024
  – The Ukraine War Runs on Prevarication – American Conservative, Feb 17 2024
  – Avdiivka falls at last, as Russia presses along the front line – Economist, Feb 17 2024
  – Fight on the Right: Anti-War Hungary Versus a Bellicose EU – Counterpunch, Feb 16 2024

Middle East:

• February 14 – Escalation In Northern Palestine
• February 16 – Nasrallah Responds To Israeli Attack On Civilians In Lebanon
  Related:
  – Biden Is Mad at Netanyahu? Spare Me. – Nation, Feb 13 2024
  – Will Israel Invade Southern Lebanon? – Sonar21, Feb 17 2024
  – Shockwaves in the Global Order – Helena Cobban / Boston Review, Feb 15 2024
  – The hands of the regional Armageddon clock strike eleven – Alastair Crooke / Al Mayadeen, Feb 13 2024

  – The World Must Force Peace on Israel (archived) – Gideon Levy / Haaretz, Feb 18 2024
  – Israeli Military Says Hamas Will Not Be Defeated in Gaza Offensive – Antiwar, Feb 16 2024
  – Prominent Black Church Leaders Call for End of U.S. Aid to Israel – New York Times, Feb 16 2024
  – Netanyahu Says He Won’t Bow to Pressure to Call Off Rafah Invasion – New York Times, Feb 17 2024
  – Opinion: I’m an American doctor who went to Gaza. What I saw wasn’t war — it was annihilation – LA Times, Feb 16 2024

> On one occasion, a handful of children, all about ages 5 to 8, were carried to the emergency room by their parents. All had single sniper shots to the head. These families were returning to their homes in Khan Yunis, about 2.5 miles away from the hospital, after Israeli tanks had withdrawn. But the snipers apparently stayed behind. None of these children survived. <

Russia:

• February 17 – They Finally Killed Navalny …
• February 17 – Listening To What He Says
  Related:
  – Saving America’s future from the Blob – Asia Times, Feb 16 2024
  – Vladimir Putin, riding high before Navalny’s death, seems unstoppable – Washington Post, Feb 18 2024
  – Russian Space Nukes and Navalny’s Death… U.S. Psyops Go Ballistic – SCF, Feb 16 2024

Misc:

—
Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2024-052

Patrick Armstrong, a Canadian expert on Russia, had, unfortunately, stop to blog on Russia.

But the last post he made was an advise that should be followed: “LISTEN TO WHAT HE’S SAYING”.

"He" of course, being Vladimir Putin, (and Lavrov and other Russian officials …)

Following Patrick's advice I have long used some off time to read through Putin's interviews and talks. They are all available in good English translations on the President's website.

Shortly after his interview with Tucker Carlson Putin had another one with the Russian journalist Pavel Zarubin.

Here are two interesting parts of it:

The first is on Anthony Blinken:

During the taped part of the [Carlson] interview, we should have discussed efforts to use inter-ethnic relations and the Jewish pogroms in the Russian Empire as a way of denigrating and demonising Russia. One of the subjects we discussed when the cameras were turned off was what US Secretary of State, Mr Blinken, mentioned on several occasions. He said that his relatives, his great-grandfather, fled the Jewish pogroms and left Russia.

This topic keeps surfacing across the world, in Europe and in the United States. Let me reiterate that it is being used to demonise and discredit Russia and to demonstrate that it is home to barbaric, cruel people and outlaws. However, we can clarify many issues if we try to understand what today’s US Secretary of State actually said and if we look beyond political slogans by focusing on the substance.

All this information is in our archives. For example, Mr Blinken’s great-grandfather did leave the Russian Empire. I think that he was born somewhere in the Poltava Province, and then moved to Kiev before emigrating. This raises the following question: does Mr Blinken think that Kiev and the surrounding territories are historically Russian land? This is my first point here.

Second, if he says that his great-grandfather left Russia to escape the Jewish pogroms, this, at least, means, and I would like to stress this point, that in 1904, since this is when Mr Blinken’s great-grandfather left Kiev for the United States, Ukraine did not exist – this is what he seems to believe. This way, Mr Blinken seems to share our views. That said, he should have refrained from saying so in public. This could undermine his cause.
…
By the way, something has just occurred to me about these pogroms. They took place mainly in the south and southwest of the Russian Empire. In fact, this is where present-day Ukraine is, for example in Kiev, in 1905. If Mr Blinken’s ancestor left in 1904, the first pogrom in Kiev, I mean a big one, happened in 1905, which means that his great-grandfather, or his great-great-grandfather, could only find out what happened there from newspapers, or from those who were in Kiev at that time.

The next part I'd like to share is about the fake Greens of Germany:

Speaking of nationalism, Nazism and fascism, you know, I will tell you something that may sound strange. First, Ms, what is her name?

Annalena Baerbock.

Vladimir Putin: Yes, Baerbock (I do not want to mispronounce her surname) represents the Greens party. Many representatives of this part of the European political spectrum speculate on people’s fears and engage in fearmongering about what might happen in the world due to climate change. Later, they speculate on these fears, fanned by themselves, and follow their political line that differs greatly from their earlier programme, with which they assumed power. This is what is now happening in Germany. For example, the share of coal has increased in the national energy mix. The share of coal was already higher than in Russia, and it has now increased even more. I mean, what happened to the “green” agenda? This is the first thing.

Second, the German Foreign Minister and people like her, are, of course, hostile towards Russia. In my opinion, she is also hostile towards her own country because it is hard to imagine such a high-ranking politician treating the economic interests of her country and people with such disdain. Right now, I will not go into details, but this is exactly what is happening in reality, and we can see this.

The next part of my statement will probably sound out of tune with what I have just said. I do not think that the current generations of Germans should assume complete political responsibility for everything perpetrated by Nazi Germany. It is impossible to blame the current generation of people for what Hitler and his cronies perpetrated in Germany and other parts of the world, in Europe and so on. I believe that this would be unfair. To be frank, sticking this label on the entire German nation is an unfair position; this misuses what people experienced, what the people of the Soviet Union experienced. To my mind, this is unfair and inappropriate. We should proceed from present-day realities and see who is doing what, and what policy they are conducting.

I interpret the last graph as an offer to Germany to renew its friendship with Russia.

Unfortunately no one in the western media seems to have picked up on it.

The facts (machine translation):

The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to withdraw troops from Avdiivka. DeepState writes about the capture of the Russian coke plant and "9 quarter" – Strana, Feb 17 2024

Deputy commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Maxim Zhorin said that as of 13 hours on February 17, the operation to withdraw troops from Avdiivka is still ongoing.

He stated this in his Telegram channel.

"Leaving Avdiivka was the right and logical decision. But very difficult to implement. The overall situation in this area is difficult, and very difficult battles are waiting for us ahead, " Zhorin said.

The Ukrainian military public DeepState confirms the capture of the Avdiivka Coke plant and 9 Kvartal by the Russians.

Thus, judging by the map published by the resource, almost all of Avdiivka has already come under the control of the Russian Federation. The new front line runs east of Lastochkino.

Earlier, the Russians published a video about the Avdiivka City Administration and the City Council.

It is located near the area of high-rise buildings "9 quarter" and is already under the control of the Russian Federation.

Also, Russian telegram channels publish a video of the installation of the Russian flag, allegedly over one of the buildings of the Avdiivka Coke plant.

Now comes Ukrainian art of 'coping' with the its utter defeat:

Cont. reading: The Ukrainian Art Of Coping

The creation of this news item was suspiciously well timed …

Putin must pay for ‘murder’ of Navalny, say world leaders – Telegraph, Feb 17, 2022

Speaking at the White House, Joe Biden said the Russian president was “responsible” for the death of Mr Navalny, while David Cameron, the Foreign Secretary, said: “Putin’s Russia fabricated charges against him, poisoned him, sent him to an arctic penal colony and now he has tragically died.

“Putin should be accountable for what has happened. No one should doubt the dreadful nature of his regime.”

Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, said Mr Navalny had been “slowly murdered by President Putin and his regime, who fear nothing more than dissent from their own people”.

Mr Biden, who in 2021 promised “devastating” consequences should Mr Navalny die in jail, said he was considering a “whole number of options” in response.

He urged Republican lawmakers to pass a $95 billion dollar aid package for Ukraine that has stalled after its approval in the senate, saying “history is watching.”

Asked whether Mr Navalny’s death would convince Republican leaders to drop their opposition to the bill, he said: “I hope to god it helps.”

Mr Navalny’s wife urged the international community to punish Putin for her husband’s death as she received the news shortly before taking the floor at a conference in Munich.

Cont. reading: They Finally Killed Navalny …

Two days ago I wrote about The Escalation In Northern Palestine. The latest event describe therein was an Israeli 'retaliation' airstrike which killed Lebanese civilians:

Predictably the Israeli occupation forces responded to the strike on Safad by escalating further:

The Israeli military said Wednesday its fighter jets "began a series of strikes in Lebanon", raising fears of a war between the two countries after months of cross-border fire.

The military gave no further details of the air strikes, while Lebanese media reported air raids on southern villages including Adchit, Sawwaneh and Shihabiyeh.

The strikes came hours after fire from Lebanon wounded multiple people in northern Israel, according to medics.
…
Fears have been growing of another full-blown conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, with tens of thousands displaced on both sides of the border and regional tensions soaring.

"I don't know when the war in the north is, I can tell you that the likelihood of it happening in the coming months is much higher than it was in the past," Israeli military chief Herzi Halevi said last month.

Following the last Israeli strikes, the Lebanese side said that four civilians had been killed or wounded by them.

The increase of hostility is getting to a point where there will no longer be the question "if" another war between Israel and Hizbullah will occur but only the question of "when".

Today Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah held another speech announcing his response (notes taken from the live coverage by Al-Manar):

Cont. reading: Nasrallah Responds To Israeli Attack On Civilians In Lebanon

The Ukrainian defense of Avdeevka is falling apart.

Avdeevka – Feb 15, 2024

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Avdeevka – Feb 16, 2024 (Note: slightly different zoom scale than above)

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The small cauldron south of Avdeevka around the 'Zenit' fortification, as seen in the Feb 15 map, has fallen. The Ukrainian military who fled from it under fire through open fields had to leave their wounded behind:

Cont. reading: The End Of The Avdeevka Cauldron

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Palestine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Avdeevka – Feb 5, 2024

bigger

As an Ukrainian one would not want to be in Avdeevka right now and especially not in the former air defense base directly south of it.

Avdeevka – Feb 15, 2024

bigger

Strana with news from the 3rd (Azov neo-nazi) brigade (machine translated):

Cont. reading: Ukraine Open Thread 2024-050

News & views (not related to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine) …

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

The situation on the northern Israeli border is escalating. It is likely to soon evolve into a full fledged war. The situation is already increasing the economic price Israel has to pay for its misdeeds.

The international rating agency Moody's has downgraded Israel's credit rating. This will lead to higher interest payments on Israeli government debt:

In a report dated last Friday but not issued until Saturday, the Jewish sabbath, the agency officially reduced Israel’s rating from A1 to A2, and added pointers of further downgrading to come. The Anglo-American press immediately reacted against Moody’s.

“Israel hits back”, the Financial Times headlined.  The newspaper added: “[Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu, in a rare statement over the Jewish Sabbath, said: ‘The rating downgrade is not connected to the economy, it is entirely due to the fact that we are in a war. The rating will go back up the moment we win the war — and we will win the war.’” In the Associated Press report, “Israel’s finance minister blasts Moody’s downgrade”.   Rupert Murdoch’s platform Fox claimed: “Israel has a strong, open economy despite Moody’s downgrade”.  “Israel’s creditworthiness remains high,” according to the New York Times, “but the rating agency noted that the outlook for the country was negative… A rating of A2 is still a high rating.”

There are several negative issues that could lead to a further downgrading:

According to Moody’s report, “downside risks remain at the A2 rating level. In particular, the risk of an escalation involving Hezbollah in the North of Israel remains, which would have a potentially much more negative impact on the economy than currently assumed under Moody’s baseline scenario. Government finances would also be under more intense pressure in such a scenario.”

Shortly after the Moody's report appeared Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah set out to increase the pressure on Israel:

Cont. reading: Escalation In Northern Palestine

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Palestine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

In the last Ukraine situation report I discussed the choice of General Oleksandr Syrski as the new Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. He is likely to support the more aggressive choices the Ukrainian president Zelenski will make.

For mostly public relation reasons Zelenski demands constant attacks on Russian forces and no retreat of Ukrainian forces until absolutely necessary. Syrski is willing to deliver on that even as history says that he is unlikely to be successful:

Syrski, who was born as a Russian, had lost the cauldron battles of Debaltsevo (2015), Soledar (2023) and Bakhmut (2023). Currently Avdeevka is in a cauldron and likely to fall.

Rumors say that Syrski has already ordered reserves to reinforce the troops in Avdeevka.

The latest news says that some reinforcements have indeed arrived:

Some units of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade in Avdiivka have been replaced by other units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Source: Ivan Sekach, Chief of Public Relations of the 110th Separate Mechanised Brigade named after Marko Bezruchko, in an interview with Radio Liberty on 13 February

Quote: "We lack sufficient capabilities to maintain control of the city, but reinforcements are arriving, and we rely on friendly units. For the first time in almost two years of the 110th Separate Mechanised Brigade's operation, some of our units have been fully withdrawn from combat for rest and rotation. Indeed, reinforcements have come. I won't specify [which] unit, but it provides substantial support. We feel a bit more at ease since its arrival."

We do not know for sure which brigades have replaced the completely worn down 110th Mechanized. Rumors have it that the 3rd Assault Brigade was sent to relieve Avdeevka. The 3rd had evolved out of the 'nationalist', i.e neo-nazi, Azov militia. Other news said that at least parts of the planned reinforcements for Avdeevka were successfully attacked on their march while still being far away from the city.

All lines of communications to Avdeevka are under Russian fire but have yet to be physically cut. After a few days of sprints the Russian attacks have noticeably slowed down. This may be because of increased resistance from the Ukrainian side but could also have plenty of other reasons. Large scale FAB500 bombings continue to destroy the city and its defenders.

The Russian army is now on attack along the whole frontline. This is reflected in unusually high Ukrainian losses as reported by the Russian Ministry of Defense.

Today's report lists up to 1145 Ukrainian casualties – double the number than usual. Material losses on the Ukrainian side are also high. In total some 23 armored vehicles and over 60 trucks were reported to have been hit during the last 24 hours. The number is a lot higher than on the days before.

Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep: A Collapse Is Coming – And Then?

I have had no idea what serious issue to post about today.

But this:

When I say that running MoA is a full time job it raises doubts and I may even get laughed at. But it is. Even when I don't post.

I have to read, every day, a large number of pieces and/or watch videos to collect new ideas. It takes time to process those into conscious contexts and then those into blog posts.

Today, like every day, I have of course skimmed over of the usual mainstream stuff, NYT and WaPo nonsense, but found little in it to take note of.

I then skimmed through the comments at this blog and cleared up the spam list.

Then I walked through what my various news feeds provide. It is often quite a lot.

Here is what I consumed (read or watched) today and found worthy enough to copy URL, headline and some excerpts.

Middle East:

Cont. reading: “You Didn’t Even Post. So What Did You Do Today?”

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Palestine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Last week’s post on Moon of Alabama:

Middle East:

• February 5 – In The Middle East The U.S. Has Reached The End Of Its Abilities
• February 6 – This Picture Shows One Man And A Zionist Goon
• February 7 – MBS Says John Kirby Needs Some Mouth Wash
• February 7 – New York Times Defames Iraq’s Militia As ‘Foreign Elements’
• February 8 – U.S. Escalates War – Strikes Group Which Had Followed Orders To Stand Down
• February 10 – A Move On Rafah Might Be The Spark That Ignites A Bigger Explosion
  Related:
  – ‘The destruction is massive … It’s a disaster area’: Israeli soldiers speak about fighting in Gaza – Guardian, Feb 8 2024
  –“Israel is heading towards street battles between the far right and families of hostages” – Seth Ackerman / Informer

  – Chris Hedges: Let Them Eat Dirt – Scheerpost, Feb 8 2024
  – Israel’s Self-Destruction – Aluf Benn / Foreign Affairs, Feb 7 2024
    Netanyahu, the Palestinians, and the Price of Neglect
  – How Gaza Reunited the Middle East – Foreign Affairs, Feb 9 2024

  – Why is the US in Jordan and Syria? – LRB, Feb 1 2024
  – Why Iran is hard to intimidate – Economist, Feb 6 2024
  – Iran’s Proxies Aren’t Really Proxies – Amal Saad / Time, Feb 7 2024
    A New Pan-Islamic Front May Be America’s Biggest Challenge
  – “Should I Stay or Should I Go?” – US Stuck in the Middle East, Devoid of Deterrence Power – Naked Capitalism, Feb 10 2024

  – US Blocks Yemen-Saudi Peace Deal – Antiwar – Feb 6 2024
  – Chinese Ships Get Insurance Edge Navigating Red Sea – GCaptain, Feb 6 2024
  – Study Finds Media Giants New York Times, CNN, and Fox News Pushing for US War in Yemen – Mintpressnews, Feb 6 2024

Ukraine:

• February 6 – Ukraine – An Army Without Officers Has No Chance Of Winning
• February 8 – Ukraine SitRep: Finally A Wonder-Weapon That Does What It Promised To Do
• February 9 – Ukraine SitRep: A Hated New Commander – Critical Lack Of Infantry
  Related:
  – Ukraine Poll Sends Worrying Message to Zelensky – Newsweek, Feb 7 2024
  – Zaluzhny out, Oleksandr Syrsky in, to what purpose? – Asia Times, Feb 9 2024
    Zelensky fired Zaluzhny so he could call the shots on the battlefield.
  – An army without Zaluzhnyi: Who is General Syrskyi, Ukraine’s new Commander-in-Chief? – Ukrainska Pravda

  – Ukraine faces ‘gap in the hose’ as western ammunition dries up (archived) – FT
  – Short on Soldiers, Ukraine Debates How to Find the Next Wave of Troops – New York Times, Feb 11 2024

—
Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2024-044

The Middle East is short of exploding.

Report: Egypt warns Israel Rafah offensive may lead to suspension of peace treaty – Times of Israel, Feb 10 2024

Egypt and Saudi Arabia have added their voices to a rising tide of criticism of a planned Israeli ground offensive in the Gaza Strip’s southern city of Rafah, after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated that such a campaign was forthcoming.

Netanyahu announced Friday that he had ordered the Israeli military to present the cabinet with a plan to both evacuate the city’s civilian population — augmented by over one million refugees from the strip’s north and center — and destroy Hamas’s remaining battalions in the area.
…
The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that Egyptian officials warned the decades-long peace treaty between Egypt and Israel could be suspended if Israel Defense Forces’ troops enter Rafah, or if any of Rafah’s refugees are forced southward into the Sinai Peninsula.

In addition, Saudi Arabia — which has already conditioned normalization with Israel on an end to hostilities and steps toward the establishment of a Palestinian state — issued a statement Saturday warning of “the extremely dangerous repercussions of storming and targeting the city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip,” given the city being “the last refuge for hundreds of thousands of people.”

Reuters reported that in an effort to forestall a massive influx of refugees, Egypt has over the past two weeks stationed some 40 tanks near its border with Gaza, after having reinforced the border wall since the beginning of hostilities, both structurally and with surveillance equipment.

On Friday, Israel’s Channel 12 also reported that IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi was opposed to Netanyahu’s plan for a swift Rafah campaign, saying that although the military is technically capable of such an operation, it would be unwise to undertake it without coordination with the Egyptians and plans for the city’s massive refugee population.

Plans are made to react to an onslaught on Rafah:

Cont. reading: A Move On Rafah Might Be The Spark That Ignites A Bigger Explosion