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A Move On Rafah Might Be The Spark That Ignites A Bigger Explosion
The Middle East is short of exploding.
Report: Egypt warns Israel Rafah offensive may lead to suspension of peace treaty – Times of Israel, Feb 10 2024
Egypt and Saudi Arabia have added their voices to a rising tide of criticism of a planned Israeli ground offensive in the Gaza Strip’s southern city of Rafah, after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated that such a campaign was forthcoming.
Netanyahu announced Friday that he had ordered the Israeli military to present the cabinet with a plan to both evacuate the city’s civilian population — augmented by over one million refugees from the strip’s north and center — and destroy Hamas’s remaining battalions in the area. … The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that Egyptian officials warned the decades-long peace treaty between Egypt and Israel could be suspended if Israel Defense Forces’ troops enter Rafah, or if any of Rafah’s refugees are forced southward into the Sinai Peninsula.
In addition, Saudi Arabia — which has already conditioned normalization with Israel on an end to hostilities and steps toward the establishment of a Palestinian state — issued a statement Saturday warning of “the extremely dangerous repercussions of storming and targeting the city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip,” given the city being “the last refuge for hundreds of thousands of people.”
Reuters reported that in an effort to forestall a massive influx of refugees, Egypt has over the past two weeks stationed some 40 tanks near its border with Gaza, after having reinforced the border wall since the beginning of hostilities, both structurally and with surveillance equipment.
On Friday, Israel’s Channel 12 also reported that IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi was opposed to Netanyahu’s plan for a swift Rafah campaign, saying that although the military is technically capable of such an operation, it would be unwise to undertake it without coordination with the Egyptians and plans for the city’s massive refugee population.
Plans are made to react to an onslaught on Rafah:
Sayyed Nasrallah Receives Iranian FM, Discuss Latest Regional Developments – Al Manar, Feb 10 2024
The Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, received the Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian,
Amir-Abdollahian and Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah discussed a variety of issues regarding the developments in the region and the situation in the Gaza Strip during the meeting.
Preparations are ongoing:
Hezbollah Escalates Attacks on Enemy Border Sites in Response to Israeli Aggression on South Lebanon – Al Manar, Feb 10 2024
I have a bad feeling here. Many things could get wrong and people will be hurt on all sides.
in re: “Egyptian officials warned the decades-long peace treaty between Egypt and Israel could be suspended”
This is a significant public statement, implying that Israel has exhausted EG commitment to 1977 treaty. I’m not expecting armed EG engagement, but warehouses might open for sale.
in re: “Saudi Arabia—which has already conditioned normalization with Israel on an end to hostilities and steps toward the establishment of a Palestinian state—issued a statement Saturday”
hmm, yes, well, rumor of another UNSC confrontation.
Saudi Foreign Ministry calls for UN Security Council meeting on the situation around Rafah
“Saudi Arabia strongly condemns Israel’s plans to extend its military offensive to the city of Rafah, where more than 1.7 million Palestinians are concentrated, and demands an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council to avoid an imminent humanitarian catastrophe,” the Saudi Foreign Ministry said.
As noted in the communique of the Foreign Ministry of Saudi Arabia, “Riyadh warns of extremely dangerous consequences of the strike on Rafah – the last refuge of hundreds of thousands of civilians who were forced to leave their homes due to Israeli aggression.”
Purportedly, this communique is posted at MOFA’s .tg account. I can confirm that UN Sec-Gen has not publicly acknowledge receipt of this request. Maybe it’ll show up Monday or Tuesday. Saudi Arabia calls for ‘urgent’ UN Security Council meeting to prevent Israeli invasion toward Rafah
according to Saudi Press Agency [spa.gov.sa].
“The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has warned of the extremely dangerous repercussions of storming and targeting the city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip, which is the last refuge for hundreds of thousands of civilians forced to flee by the brutal Israeli aggression,” the agency reported.
It added that Saudi Arabia affirmed “its categorical rejection and strong condemnation of their forced deportation.”
The kingdom renewed “its demand for the necessity of an immediate cease-fire,” noting that “this continued violation of international law confirms the necessity for the UN Security Council to urgently convene to prevent Israel from causing an imminent humanitarian catastrophe for which everyone who supports the aggression bears responsibility.”
Very late last night (tipped off by RT) and again this morning, I looked for sps’s “communique” copy, only to note with interest a cryptic, mini-AL meeting here.
[SA] Minister of Foreign Affairs Prince Faisal bin Farhan bin Abdullah on Thursday, February 8, 2024, hosted a consultative meeting to discuss developments in the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip.
Attending the meeting were Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the State of Qatar Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the United Arab Emirates Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs and Expatriate Affairs of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan Ayman Safadi, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Arab Republic of Egypt Sameh Shoukry, and the Secretary of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) Executive Committee and Minister of Civil Affairs Hussein AlSheikh.
[…]
Surprising no one, Syria was not invited. So I surmise, this clique met to clear the air around cost/benefit of Jordan’s obligations to Israel (v. 1987, v. 1994) and the Arab League (1945), of which pretense of preventing “terrorism” attributed to any eNtiTY but Israel is wearing thin.
Posted by: sln2002 | Feb 10 2024 17:50 utc | 23
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