Ukraine SitRep: Tit For Tat, Tat, Tat - Russia Intensifies Missile Strikes
On the 29th of December Russia fired swarms of drones and missiles against Ukrainian weapon factories and depots.
Ukraine responded on new year's eve with a missile attack against the Russian city of Belgorod. The attack led to a number of civilian casualties.
Russia responded with attacks on Kharkiv where a hotel frequently used by western personnel was destroyed.
On new year's eve Ukraine also fired missiles into the center of Donetzk city. Russia launched dozens of drones towards Odessa. In both cities several people were killed and wounded.
President Putin of Russia began the year with a visit to a military hospital (in Russian, machine translation):
On January 1 of the new year, Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived at the Central Military Clinical Hospital named after A. A. Vishnevsky. Not just like that, but with an inspection and a conversation with military personnel wounded during a special military operation. A frank conversation, with uncomfortable questions.
...
Putin, in response to a question from another military officer, also commented on the massive enemy strike on Belgorod on December 30. He did not hold back his emotions and directly called the incident a terrorist act.Targeted attack on the civilian population. Of course, this is a terrorist attack. Should we respond like this? Of course we can. We can hit the squares in Kiev and any other city. Denis, there are children walking there, mummies with strollers. I understand... I'm seething myself. I want to ask you something. Do we need to do this?In response, the military explained that he does not talk about strikes on civilians. He believes that it is necessary to hit the military, infrastructure: "We need a strike to once and for all, so that they can not come to their senses and respond to us already."
And that's what we do. You noticed that just the next day such strikes were delivered. And today, in my opinion, they are applied. And tomorrow they will be,- Putin promised.
The President reminded that we use high-precision weapons to hit places where the enemy makes decisions, places where military personnel, mercenaries gather, and other similar centers.
First of all, for military facilities. And they are quite sensitive, these blows. So we will do it. You probably noticed that just the next day such strikes were delivered. And today, in my opinion, they are applied. And tomorrow we will do it. You know what the point of what they do is: they want to: a) intimidate us and b) create some kind of uncertainty in our country. But we, for our part, will step up the strikes I mentioned. Definitely. No such crime - and it is certainly a crime - against the civilian population will go unpunished. This is 100%. There can be no doubt about it.
Patrick Armstrong reminds everyone to listen to what Putin says.
This morning a total of four waves with probably hundreds of drones and missiles hit Kiev and other Ukrainian cities.
First came geranium suicide drones to exhaust Ukrainian air defenses. Then followed cruise and ballistic missile strikes (machine translation):
The current attack, apparently, was a complex one - first "Shahids" and cruise missiles from strategic bombers tried to calculate the air defense positions, and then the strike was followed by faster and more accurate "Daggers". It is possible that again, as in May last year, the Russians "hunted" air defense systems in this way.But, again, there is no official data on which objects were used for arrivals. Zaluzhny said that civilian and critical infrastructure, industrial and military facilities were attacked.
Russian military publications say that the strikes were aimed at ammunition depots and drones. But so far there is no confirmation of this.
At the same time, judging by the videos published in social networks, the damage to warehouses in Kiev is serious. According to Klitschko, 2,000 square meters of warehouses were engulfed in fire in the morning.
Debris from air defenses killed and wounded a number of people.
The Ukrainians claimed that they intercepted most of the incoming weapons:
Ukraine Battle Map @ukraine_map - 9:56 UTC · Jan 2, 2024Full Breakdown of missiles and drones shot down by Ukraine 🇺🇦 on January 2nd
10/10 or (100%) of Kinzhal Missiles
59/70 or (84.3%) of X-101 Missiles
3/3 or (100%) of Kalibr Missiles
0/12 or (0%) of Ballistic Missiles
0/4 or (0%) of Kh-31P Missiles
35/35 or (100%) of Shahed Drones
Reality disagrees with those claims. Video from the ground showed Kinzhal impacts.
As Strana remarked yesterday (machine translation):
The sharply increased air attacks in recent days have shown that the Ukrainian air defense system does not intercept all missiles and drones-despite the sharp increase in its capabilities over the past year. In the West, they make gloomy forecasts about this.The British newspaper The Telegraph, citing experts, writes that the Ukrainian air defense system will not be able to repel all winter attacks by Russia. The APU will have to choose the objects that need to be protected.
The reason is that the supply of Western air defense systems and missiles to them will not be enough.
"There will be some systems for which they will have to ration their ammunition even more than now. They may just have to avoid hitting some targets because they don't have enough interceptor missiles," said military analyst Jimmy Rushton.
Of particular concern are the deliveries of Patriot interceptor missiles, which are running out due to delays in American military assistance, the newspaper writes.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported:
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation delivered a group strike with high-precision long-range weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles on enterprises of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine that carried out orders for the production of missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles, and repair of weapons and military hardware in Kiev and its suburbs, as well as storage sites for missiles, ammunition, and aircraft weapons supplied to the Kiev regime by Western countries. The purpose of the strike has been achieved. All the targets have been engaged.
We can expect that these missile attacks will further intensify.
Jaquese Baud, in an excerpt from his new book published by Postil, points to Russia's inherent advantage:
The reason the Russians are better than the West in Ukraine is that they see the conflict as a process; whereas we see it as a series of separate actions. The Russians see events as a film. We see them as photographs. They see the forest, while we focus on the trees. That is why we place the start of the conflict on February 24, 2022, or the start of the Palestinian conflict on October 7, 2023. We ignore the contexts that bother us and wage conflicts we do not understand. That is why we lose our wars ...
Disarming and denazifying Ukraine, the war aims Putin had named, indeed describe a long process, not just the visible events of this or that single day.
Posted by b on January 2, 2024 at 14:36 UTC | Permalink
next page »Interesting how the very same Ukranazi propagandists like JayInKiev on Twitter, who were exulting at the Belgorod attacks, are now howling in faux outrage at the Russian response.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 2 2024 15:00 utc | 2
As usual, of every 100 missiles Russia fires, Ukranazistan shoots down 200, but the remaining 300 hit 400 schools, 500 hospitals, 600 kindergartens, and 700 flower shops.
[Mathematics is an ancient Ukranazistani invention, from when they were building the pyramids and digging the Black Sea.]
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 2 2024 15:01 utc | 3
[Mathematics is an ancient Ukranazistani invention, from when they were building the pyramids and digging the Black Sea.]
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 2 2024 15:01 utc | 3
#################
Thank you. My first chuckle of the day.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 2 2024 15:10 utc | 4
The current attack, apparently, was a complex one - first "Shahids" and cruise missiles from strategic bombers tried to calculate the air defense positions, and then the strike was followed by faster and more accurate "Daggers". It is possible that again, as in May last year, the Russians "hunted" air defense systems in this way.
Posted by b on January 2, 2024 at 14:36 UTC | Permalink
What bothers me is that S300/Buk ammo should have been exhausted from May.
Western AD was not considered on par with soviet ones
Any details on how they are keeping up? (I remember seeing 70's US ADs from israel and some european stuff and of course patriots, but it's becoming strange, I thought AD was reduced to residual when RF birds started flying more freely in october)
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 2 2024 15:10 utc | 5
In the morning, missiles hit Kyiv, now the response has hit Russian Belgorod.We can safely state the fact that the conflict is beginning to escalate. According to our sources, Zelensky is more interested in this.
That's why:
- draw attention to the Ukrainian crisis
- get new loans and military assistance (trump card: beautiful photos of the tragedy).
- reduce Putin’s rating for the elections in the Russian Federation
- distract Ukrainians from internal problems, switch them back to war
- warm up the case of mobilization, which is going on in chaosMany are confident that the closer the Russian presidential elections are, the louder the rumblings will be, the more they will raise the stakes, the more often there will be tragedies. Elections in the Russian Federation are a kind of catalyst for aggravation.
On the one hand, the Russians also benefit from the escalation in order to unite the nation in the opinion that it is necessary to cleanse Ukraine completely and push the border back hundreds of kilometers.
https://t.me/legitimniy/16993
Posted by: Down South | Jan 2 2024 15:12 utc | 7
War with drones/missiles is all about economics: how much to launch an attack versus how much to defend plus damage caused by drones/missiles that get through defense. With human attackers, high casualty rates eventually cause moral problems or outright mutiny. But drones/missiles don't care about 90% casualty rates during attacks.
Posted by: anonposter | Jan 2 2024 15:17 utc | 8
Since the Pentagon believes everything that Ukraine says, then this is good news. It means that the Patriot PAC3 is more than a match for Russian hypersonic missiles. After all, how can you improve on a 100% interception rate?
Since the Patriot missile system is so effective then there is no need to improve it. Actually, I'm waiting for a 'leak' to reveal that the U.S. is about to release a super-duper new PAC10 missile.
Posted by: Christian J Chuba | Jan 2 2024 15:20 utc | 9
Our source in the General Staff said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces began to use mobile air defense tactics, when Patriot is moved to different sectors of the front to repel enemy air strikes.For the first time, such tactics were used in May in Bryansk, but after retaliatory strikes with hypersonic weapons, the Americans suspended such operations. Last month, the General Staff decided to resume the Patriot mobile air defense tactics to attack enemy aircraft on the contact line.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/20938
Our source in the General Staff said that the enemy’s massive missile strike is a response to tactics with mobile air defense, which is actively used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.After the downed fighters in Bryansk, the Russian troops destroyed several Patriot launchers and the Americans demanded to stop such operations, but now we have resumed them on our own, which is why the enemy is firing Daggers after opening our air defenses.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/21040
Our source in the General Staff said that the air defense is overloaded and does not have time to change positions due to the enemy’s tactics with daily strikes. Now the effectiveness has dropped from 70% to 50%, and if missile attacks continue, the air defense will not be able to repel most attacks.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/21036
According to our source, the air defense in Kyiv is almost half empty. Now they have given the order and are pulling
the remaining air defense missiles from the regions to the capital.In fact, air defense missile reserves are almost zero.
https://t.me/legitimniy/16995
Posted by: Down South | Jan 2 2024 15:21 utc | 10
The U.S. MSM is totally corrupt
The 'fourth estate' is reduced to telling 300M Americans, bedtime stories rather than actual news.
According to CNN/FOX ...
1. Russia only attacks civilians
2. Ukraine only attacks military targets.
3. The only reason the IDF bombs refugee camps, apartment buildings, and hospitals is because Hamas uses them as 'human shields'.
Posted by: Christian J Chuba | Jan 2 2024 15:24 utc | 11
Marvellous to see Patrick Armstrong is back. I hope his bank account will not be frozen and his pension given to one of the Waffen SS war memorials.
Posted by: bevin | Jan 2 2024 15:25 utc | 12
The art of Russian warfare: How the west led Ukraine into stalemate Paperback – 17 Jan. 2024
by Jacques Baud (Author) NOT available to order via Amazon. Does anyone know if any British publisher or book shop will stock it?
Posted by: Geraint ap Iorwerth | Jan 2 2024 15:29 utc | 13
"(Sharecast News .. 02/01/2024) - European shares slipped into the red at midday after survey data indicated that the eurozone had likely slipped into recession in the third quarter of 2023.
In economic news, manufacturing activity in the eurozone declined for the ninth straight month in December, according to new figures released Tuesday by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB)"
================================================================
It looks like those super-sanctions which were supposed to bring the Russian Federation to its knees within weeks are continuing to backfire badly !
What a surprise !
Posted by: Engineer-John | Jan 2 2024 15:30 utc | 14
It's getting to the point that I would welcome Russia ending this by destroying Kiev...But we have to recognize that Putin is playing the long game, bleeding NATO and the US while maintaining a good reputation with the BRICS world...
Posted by: pyrrhus | Jan 2 2024 15:33 utc | 15
Slavyangrad posted information from Telegram channel Правда Шурави on the results of the Russian strikes over the last day.
- Three warehouses and a hangar storing Harpoon anti-ship missiles and missile launcher were destroyed in Odessa.
At this time, it is known for sure that a huge number of command posts with British and Polish military personnel have been destroyed.
- There is no disaster in Kyiv. There is light, there is water, there is sewerage. The city authorities themselves turn off the electricity to create a nightmare for the people. Although there is no need for this. Everyone is frightened enough.
- According to the reports from ground the SBU is chasing everyone who takes videos of the arrivals and recording the work of the air defense, as their missiles, leaving a contrail, are demolishing penthouses and higher floors of new multistorey buildings.
- 8 “Kinzhals” were fired, hit all targets and destroyed the Patriot air defense system, underground warehouse with AtacMS missiles, and an underground command post of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. According to some reports, and the Turks confirm them, 9 generals were killed, one of them was Zaluzhny’s deputy.
- In the Kharkov region, two Iris T air defense systems, 4 Gepard tanks, two command centers and about 65 officers were destroyed.
- In the Kyiv region, in addition to the Patriot air defense system, 4 command centers and two hotels with mercenaries from Sweden, Denmark, Lithuania and Estonia were destroyed. More than 78 people were killed, about 1000 missiles for Iris T and NASAMS were destroyed in the Goloseevsky district of Kyiv.
- A warehouse with Storm Shadow missiles was destroyed in Krapivnitsky. More than 25 missiles. Plus two SU-24 aircraft and a repair base.
Posted by: Belle | Jan 2 2024 15:51 utc | 17
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 2 2024 15:00 utc | 2
Interesting how the very same Ukranazi propagandists like JayInKiev on Twitter, who were exulting at the Belgorod attacks, are now howling in faux outrage at the Russian response.
No more interesting than how pro-Putin bloggers were in faux outrage at the Belgorod attacks after exulting the big attack on Ukrainian cities.
Posted by: Inkan54 | Jan 2 2024 15:52 utc | 18
What military targets are located 40 kms from the border in Belgorod, Inky? Combat underwear warehouses?
Posted by: nwwoods | Jan 2 2024 15:57 utc | 19
Now that the hotel with NATO 'advisors' was hit, we know that Russia knew the significance of the location all along but held back from hitting it hitherto. The timing of the hit was meant to be understood as a response to the Belgorod attack. I used to be puzzled by how Russia seemed to constantly fail to respond to its apparent red lines being crossed, but now I see it differently, that its 'softness' is actually a way of maintaining escalation dominance, so that it can choose the when and where of its moves, instead of letting US/NATO dictate how its escalations.
I see Russia and Iran as similar in this way. Iran had vowed to pay back the murder of Soleimani in kind -- the commensurate response was not immediate, and more importantly, it may not even be a overt and isolated action but rather a series of strategic moves.
That said, the hit on the hotel, as a response to the Belgorod attack, probably has little deterrence value, since it is Ukraine that suffers the consequences but it is US/UK/NATO that is ultimately responsible for such terrorist attacks. The chain of command for such terrorism might not even go through Ukraine intermediaries, but carried out by 'western advisors' on site.
Stepping back, I find myself to be actually elaborating on the theme that b introduced in the original post: that Russia sees the conflict as a long process. I too have been thinking about that a lot lately, for example, the Houthi shutdown of the Gulf of Aden shipping lane has shown the great foresight of the PRC in establishing inland transport routes through central Asia -- the PRC had already anticipated and started preparing for something like this a decade ago! The Belt and Road Initiative is not a single overt move but is comprised of thousands of pieces, which, seen individually, might not seem significant but they form an unbroken tapestry whose pattern is only evident when you see the whole.
Posted by: Mastameta | Jan 2 2024 16:01 utc | 20
"The U.S. MSM is totally corrupt"—Posted by: Christian J Chuba | Jan 2 2024 15:24 utc
Best to call them what they are: Fascist MSM.
Posted by: Robert Italia | Jan 2 2024 16:05 utc | 21
USA is #1
Iskander kills high-ranking NATO officers at Europa Hotel near Avdiika
High ranking officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and NATO were killed in the Europa Hotel in the village of Myrnohrad during a missile strike. This was announced Friday December 22 by the Telegram channel of one of our intelligence officers.
Yesterday, on 12/21/2023, Russian troops inflicted fire damage at the place where, according to confirmed information, a meeting of high-ranking officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and NATO was held. The AFU used an absolutely civilian facility to conduct their meeting. The coordinates of the building located in the village of Rovnoye, Krasnoarmeysky municipal District (48.296198, 37.221220) indicate the Europa Hotel. At 20:20 and 20:25 on 12/21/2023, Russian artillery inflicted fire damage at these coordinates, after which repeated detonation was observed in the building, which is confirmed by messages from local chat rooms. A few minutes after the defeat, local chat rooms were either disabled or severely censored. The law enforcement agencies of Ukraine are working on the spot, and any attempt at video recording is accompanied by force from the authorities.
Hmm..."NATO" isn't that code for America and it's minions?
h/t Simplicius
Posted by: nwwoods | Jan 2 2024 16:11 utc | 22
b has long since given up on the maximalist aims of Putins December 2021 ultimatums. Wonder why?
Posted by: Zargo | Jan 2 2024 16:12 utc | 23
Huge change with latest missile and drone attack on Kiev with many videos released to the internet of strikes and damage, fires with secondary explosions, etc. Also considerable damage to civilian buildings - cause in some cases looks to be from falling debris, in others there are detonation craters so errant strikes or AD munitions seem responsible. There are claims that a couple surveillance cameras were hacked to record the strikes. Seems a breakdown in the censorship of videos has occurred.
Posted by: the pessimist | Jan 2 2024 16:18 utc | 24
Posted by: Geraint ap Iorwerth | Jan 2 2024 15:29 utc | 13
Posted by: KitaySupporter | Jan 2 2024 16:19 utc | 25
Posted by: Belle | Jan 2 2024 15:51 utc | 18- According to the reports from ground the SBU is chasing everyone who takes videos of the arrivals and recording the work of the air defense, as their missiles, leaving a contrail, are demolishing penthouses and higher floors of new multistorey buildings.
- 8 “Kinzhals” were fired, hit all targets and destroyed the Patriot air defense system, underground warehouse with AtacMS missiles, and an underground command post of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. According to some reports, and the Turks confirm them, 9 generals were killed, one of them was Zaluzhny’s deputy.
- In the Kharkov region, two Iris T air defense systems, 4 Gepard tanks, two command centers and about 65 officers were destroyed.
Re: Penthouses destroyed, officers including generals killed:
Hmmm... as the RF kills off and demoralized the Ukraine command, perhaps the grunts and civilian citizenry further down the pecking order of society will begin to regard the RF not as enemies but agents of rescue from an oppressive regime that only demands from them sacrifice and death and never has anything to offer in return, including any hope for enjoying family life or any sense of positive future.
This is a worthy read, kudos for Pepe Escobar for linking it on his TG. The concern trolls should read it and then save their breath:
Sergey Karaganov: Russians are the real Europeans, the West of the continent has lost its way
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 2 2024 16:31 utc | 27
Posted by: Mastameta | Jan 2 2024 16:01 utc | 21Stepping back, I find myself to be actually elaborating on the theme that b introduced in the original post: that Russia sees the conflict as a long process. I too have been thinking about that a lot lately, for example, the Houthi shutdown of the Gulf of Aden shipping lane has shown the great foresight of the PRC in establishing inland transport routes through central Asia -- the PRC had already anticipated and started preparing for something like this a decade ago! The Belt and Road Initiative is not a single overt move but is comprised of thousands of pieces, which, seen individually, might not seem significant but they form an unbroken tapestry whose pattern is only evident when you see the whole.
Yes, a great point by b. Another way of saying this is that RF thinks strategically versus the West more tactically. Am not sure if this is true on the higher levels but it is certainly the case in general media coverage levels.
Part of good strategy is not just thinking and seeing ahead, but thinking deeply into the present nature of what is, in Buddhist jargon called 'causes and conditions'. For a while now I have been encouraged by the way both Xi and Putin regularly link issues du jour with foundational principles - security involves not violating others security, good government benefits the lives of the people and crafts policy around that imperative. Basic stuff, but we see how terrible things become when such bedrock principles are ignored or, worse, violated as the West has been doing for way too long.
The entire Gaza phenomenon is a blatant example of violating such bedrock principles grounded in the nature of both 'objective' and human realities. If one holds to such principles and realities then whatever strategies one develops and executes have a far greater probability of success since they are always based upon and leading everything towards bedrock workability and thus all the various elements in these large-scale, complex, multi-variable phenomena resonate well together versus being collectively dissonant.
This whole unravelling of the Empire of Lies is a truly extraordinary thing.
I posted this excerpt from Putin's visit to the Military rehab hospital last night without the emphasized portions of the text so barflies could figure out where they would apply it. Here's that same excerpt that contains several important messages to Russians and to NATO:
Do you guys have any questions for me? Don't be shy.A. Dublyanin: Comrade Supreme Commander-in-Chief!
In the course of a special military operation, we are liberating the Russian land. How do you feel about the help of Western countries to our enemy?
Vladimir Putin: The point is this: it's not that they are helping our enemy. They are our enemy. They solve their problems with their hands. That's what it's all about. Unfortunately, this has been the case for centuries and continues to be the case today.
Ukraine itself is not an enemy for us. But those who want to destroy Russian statehood, those who want to achieve, as they say, a strategic defeat of Russia on the battlefield, are mainly in the West, and even then there are different people there. There are people who sympathize with us and who are with us mentally. But there are so-called elites for whom the existence of Russia – at least in its current quality, in its current size-they think is unacceptable. They want to split up. As a matter of fact, you are young people, some have read it, some have not read it-they do not hide it. They have been talking and writing about it publicly for decades, if we talk about modern history. For decades, they have simply written and openly talked about it: divide it into five parts, too many. I can tell you all about it until morning, but it's obvious.
Therefore, they nurtured the so-called Kiev regime for quite a long time. It is precisely to create this conflict. Unfortunately for us, they have achieved this, created this conflict and are trying to solve their own task, namely, the task of fighting Russia, by the hands of the Ukrainians.
You probably see on the battlefield that they are gradually "deflating". When a projectile flies, it is difficult to know whether it is "deflated" or not, but in general, you probably know that the situation on the battlefield is changing. This is despite the fact that the entire so-called civilized West in quotation marks is fighting us. [My Emphasis]
Here are the last two paragraphs of Putin's answer to that soldier that I omitted earlier:
And the most important thing that we have is, of course, what I have repeatedly said: the consolidation of our people, our society, because there is an understanding of how important the task that you solve on the battlefield in the course of the armed struggle for our country and for our future is. This is the most important thing. It's not that we don't like what is being supplied to Ukraine, that's not the point of the problem. The essence of the problem is not in Ukraine, but in those who are trying to destroy Russia with the hands of Ukraine. That's the problem. But they won't succeed, it's just out of the question, absolutely out of the question.I think that the realization of this is gradually coming, and the rhetoric is changing: those who yesterday said that it is necessary to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, are now already looking for expressions about how to end the conflict faster. We also want to end the conflict as quickly as possible, only on our own terms. We have no desire to fight indefinitely, but we are not going to give up our positions either. You fought in the war, got injured there, and so on, and what are we, all surrender, or what? The cameras are working here, I would show you a certain gesture right now, you all know what kind of gesture it is. So that's not going to happen. [My Emphasis]
After his hospital visit, Putin met with a select group of troops at one of the Russian government dachas for a frank, intimate conversation about frontline combat issues that was followed by some champagne, a meal, the presentation of some parting gifts and photos with Putin. There's only two paragraphs of transcript but a bit more can be gleaned from the video. However, the important part of the visit was cut and considered classified. Also bundled with those two reports is Putin's address to BRICS+ members. Tie the address to what Putin declared to the troops at the hospital, and we see how BRICS+ might be used as a vehicle in the Hybrid War between NATO and Humanity.
"b has long since given up on the maximalist aims of Putins December 2021 ultimatums. Wonder why?"
Posted by: Zargo | Jan 2 2024 16:12 utc | 24
Because, numnuts, in December 2021 Putin was negotiating. I don't know how you negotiate [considering Zaro's unartful prose, I would imagine his negotiating skills are sketchy at best, editor] but when a solid negotiator negotiates he asks for more than he would settle for.
Once the US/FUCKUS rejected Putin's proposal the actual SMO would necessarily have more limited aims to coalesce with what his settlement would look like if the negotiations were successful.
Posted by: Belle | Jan 2 2024 15:51 utc | 18
Looks like the Ukrainians have severe Operational Security (OPSEC) problems, this could be caused by pro-Russian sympathies or wanting to end the conflict, or a response to relatives being forcibly conscripted.
Posted by: Mastameta | Jan 2 2024 16:01 utc | 21
The concept you describe is normally called an escalation ladder, where each rung is a pre-planned operation ready to react to an enemy’s anticipated actions. This is why operations are normally gamed by opposing teams who try to work out all the likely directions a conflict might go. Strangely, it’s not that difficult, as long as the initial briefer is knowledgeable. I’ve had amateurs accurately predict the response of nations, in international incidents, much to their amazement and delight. It’s why it’s obvious that the West’s original plan had little contingency planning, as Russia’s reaction and resilience to sanctions should have been anticipated. The fact that it wasn’t is testament to the increasing ideological nature of Western institutions, explaining their increasing inability to be fit for purpose or, more sinisterly, their original purpose being redefined.
Posted by: Milites | Jan 2 2024 16:46 utc | 31
I have no verification, but a strike on "Mercenaries" in a hotel suggests much more than that. Really, Mercs are put up in hotels? Maybe? More like NATO troops/officers on furlough or in for R&R off the line. I think this is a message. You kill our civillians, we kill you. You don't control your Azov buddies, we kill you. You exist at our pleasure and patience. Do not forget.
Or maybe the red wine is getting to me again.
Though I think Russia is keen to contain escalation. However Ukraine is not, and is now pretty well desperate and out of control. Argentina has I understand left BRICS. Well it has a history of being a bolt hole for the defeated right wing murderous psycho [nasty] types. With all their looted money. But Russia, much like Israel, has a long arm and a long memory. Good luck to all you Banderites at seeing old age. You'll need it. Wherever you go.
Posted by: marcjf | Jan 2 2024 16:48 utc | 32
"Hmmm... as the RF kills off and demoralized the Ukraine command, perhaps the grunts and civilian citizenry further down the pecking order of society will begin to regard the RF not as enemies but agents of rescue from an oppressive regime that only demands from them sacrifice and death and never has anything to offer in return, including any hope for enjoying family life or any sense of positive future.
Posted by: Scorpion | Jan 2 2024 16:23 utc | 27
Scorpion I am quite confident than when the SMO is completed (summer 2024 , my guess) the Ukrainians will fully comprehend what US/UK/NATO did to them and switch sides and dtest the West.
They will follow a similar path as the Chechens have in the last 20 years.
Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 2 2024 16:40 utc | 30
###############
Thank you for all that you share regularly.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 2 2024 17:00 utc | 34
Ok so Russia knows where're all the factories, repair shops are and did nothing. Until Ukies hit Belgorad and Putin reacted in revenge.
So it's actually 2 hands tied to the legs, one eye blinded, and both balls in squeezer.
If I were Ukies I'd be laughing too.
No wonder those red lines are meant to be crossed.
Didn't Putin said all those attacks are planned and executed by US and NATO personnel? They did it and Putin hits the Ukies in response.
Can see how much love he still has for the West.
Posted by: Surferket | Jan 2 2024 17:01 utc | 35
On the negotiations issue, Here's an excerpt from Lavrov's interview with Rossiya Segodnya I've yet to translate and post at my substack:
Question: Summing up the results of the year, President of Russia Vladimir Putin noted Moscow's readiness to restore full-fledged relations with Washington in the face of certain fundamental changes within the United States. Do we expect such shifts if the Republican nominee wins next year's presidential election? Can this lead to the improvement of bilateral relations?Lavrov: Our readiness to resume a full-fledged dialogue with the United States should not be taken for granted. Russian-American relations have "thinned" to the limit through the fault of Washington, which has doctrinally formalized the task of inflicting a "strategic defeat" on Russia. Although the White House is still wary of destroying everything that remains of relations to the ground, the Americans are clearly not yet ready to conduct a dialogue honestly, on the basis of mutual respect and consideration for each other's interests.
We will be able to reach a formula of peaceful coexistence with cooperation in certain areas only after Washington recognises our fundamental national interests and begins to negotiate in earnest. Meanwhile, the U.S. ruling circles deny the realities of a multipolar world and continue to think in terms of their own superiority and exceptionalism.
The American political establishment, regardless of party affiliation, sees Russia as an enemy and an existential threat. Given the existing bipartisan consensus on this issue, it would be naïve to hope for an improvement in relations if the Republican candidate wins. By and large, we don't care who wins the race for the presidency in the United States. [My Emphasis]
Not mentioned are the delicate negotiations dealing with prisoner exchanges between Russia and the Outlaw US Empire, which is how Russia wants them to remain--unmentioned.
Meanwhile Biden told the USA-ians what he had for his dinner.
Pasta, chicken and when prompted by Jill, he remembered the Ice Cream!!
Happy Sleepy Joe.
Clowns!!
“deliveries of Patriot interceptor missiles, which are running out due to delays in American military assistance”
lol , maybe not running out, maybe needed elsewhere? CoughuhtiesCough.
Or because they are useless or blown up and the suppliers don’t want to risk further loss of reputation? I don’t care.
Demilitarisation is demilitarising every where in natzio lands.
Posted by: DunGroanin | Jan 2 2024 17:10 utc | 37
Thanks for the Tit for Tat Tat Tat posting b
Canuck above me has written that the SMO will be over by summer and I think sooner....a lot sooner
I don't think the F16s are going to make it into the fight before the SMO is over....if they are used, they will be flown out of a NATO country and immediately shot down by Russia
Russia could bring all of Ukraine to its knees but does not want to destroy all the infrastructure.
Russia has succeeded in demilitarizing Ukraine, IMO...as well as much of NATO
Russia has succeeded in denazifying Ukraine, IMO...sent all remaining to Europe
Russia has almost succeeded in ending NATO, IMO....as part of ending hegemony
Ukraine collapse is on the horizon and along with it comes Europe empire hegemony....especially if/when combined with the end of Occupied Palestine.
Enough of humanity is standing up to barbaric patriarchy to force a change in our species way of living and I welcome that change.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 2 2024 17:14 utc | 38
Belle @ Jan 2 2024 15:51 utc | 18
If the reports are correct that Patriot in Kiev and two 2 IRIS-T as well as 1000 missiles for Iris T and NASAMS were destroyed, this would be the single most efficient attack so far.
Not only is this 5bln in assets but also 25% of the total air defense capacity. Won't be long until all S300 are expended against Shaheds, I would expect Russia to closely track what gets expended against each type of inbound.
If this is true, we won't see many new Patriots being delivered either:
Down South @ Jan 2 2024 15:21 utc | 10
the Americans demanded to stop such operations, but now we have resumed them on our own
Let's see what accidents will befall NATO generals in the next couple days.
This really signals they can hit anything any time they like. Intelligence is there, appropriate weapons are there.
Posted by: SOS | Jan 2 2024 17:18 utc | 39
Our source in the General Staff said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces began to use mobile air defense tactics, when Patriot is moved to different sectors of the front to repel enemy air strikes.
For the first time, such tactics were used in May in Bryansk, but after retaliatory strikes with hypersonic weapons, the Americans suspended such operations. Last month, the General Staff decided to resume the Patriot mobile air defense tactics to attack enemy aircraft on the contact line.
According to our source, the air defense in Kyiv is almost half empty. Now they have given the order and are pulling
the remaining air defense missiles from the regions to the capital.
In fact, air defense missile reserves are almost zero.
Posted by: Down South | Jan 2 2024 15:21 utc | 10
Well I guess that answers my question @5
Now let's see
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 2 2024 17:19 utc | 40
Belle @ Jan 2 2024 15:51 utc | 18
If the reports are correct that Patriot in Kiev and two 2 IRIS-T as well as 1000 missiles for Iris T and NASAMS were destroyed, this would be the single most efficient attack so far.
Not only is this 5bln in assets but also 25% of the total air defense capacity. Won't be long until all S300 are expended against Shaheds, I would expect Russia to closely track what gets expended against each type of inbound.
If this is true, we won't see many new Patriots being delivered either:
Down South @ Jan 2 2024 15:21 utc | 10
the Americans demanded to stop such operations, but now we have resumed them on our own
Let's see what accidents will befall NATO generals in the next couple days.
This really signals they can hit anything any time they like. Intelligence is there, appropriate weapons are there.
Posted by: SOS | Jan 2 2024 17:18 utc | 40
That about sums what I was about to mention about belle's kill list, between equipment and foreign "advisors", it is huge and the question is why now, was it anticipated, delayed, was the first day 160 salvo the programed start? It is not something you just ask "give me some targets for reprisal".
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 2 2024 17:26 utc | 41
Wow, karlof1, that was interesting. The barflies have started to convince me that ordinary Ukrainians are coming around to realizing that Russia is there to liberate them, but it looks like Putin is ahead of us there. He was definitely speaking to Ukrainians as well as Russians, and don't we know that a great majority of Ukrainians with internet access listened to his year-end press conference?
We also know that 70% of Ukrainians voted for Zelensky instead of Poroshenko (the US's choice), because he ran on a peace plan with Donbass. And the citizens of Donbass were not allowed to vote (western democracy), so that is a significant number.
Once the SMO started, along with the avalanche of propaganda, attitudes may have changed, we don't know. But it looks like they are changing back.
Those who advocate attacking civilians in revenge are not as smart as Putin. Good thing they're not in charge.
The civilians aren't making the decisions, NATO is. I'm glad that Russia is finally going for the NATO "advisors". The 300,000 Ukie soldiers who died didn't have a say (except for the Nazis, of course, good riddance to them.)
Posted by: wagelaborer | Jan 2 2024 17:31 utc | 42
That about sums what I was about to mention about belle's kill list, between equipment and foreign "advisors", it is huge and the question is why now, was it anticipated, delayed, was the first day 160 salvo the programed start? It is not something you just ask "give me some targets for reprisal".
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 2 2024 17:26 utc | 42
Maybe there has been some informal agreements between NATO and Russia (you don't target Russian civilians, we will avoid NATO staff casualties) and when the Ukies broke the agreements then Russia inflicted some pain on their masters. Also maybe Russia was building up missile stocks to allow for a strong blow and the timing was fortuitous.
I think when (if?) the true history of the SMO comes out we might see that there has been a lot of stuff going on that none of us were aware of.
I know many get frustrated about the slowness of the SMO but maybe it's not a bug but a feature...
Posted by: mtw | Jan 2 2024 17:35 utc | 43
surferket@36 echos a common complaint - "if Russia knew the location of these targets why didn't they hit them before?"
The drone and missile salvos executed by both sides take considerable advance planning - setting up a target list, analyzing AD networks and locations, accumulating the required resources, initiating first wave, analyzing the results and iterative adjustment of subsequent attack strategy, and repeat.
Russia did two waves - smaller first, larger second - Kiev responded with vengeance attack on civilians, Russia continued with their plan with adjustments taking advantage of new information regarding the hotel in Kharkiv. Now there have been two additional waves of increased intensity. Nothing about the overall Russian plan is reactive other than the iterative adjustments for AD locating and targeting and BDA feedback plus any opportunistic targets revealed during the operation. Likely a month or more of planning went into this operation, perhaps utilizing the new satellites Russia launched last fall.
Posted by: the pessimist | Jan 2 2024 17:38 utc | 44
Posted by: nwwoods | Jan 2 2024 16:11 utc | 23
The troll you were replying is like the wimpy boy watching a fight between two big bullies while hiding and thinking "I am winning".
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Jan 2 2024 17:41 utc | 45
10/10 or (100%) of Kinzhal Missiles
All Kinzhals were detroyed by their targets. And so on.
The problem is that the people in Ukraine believe it. And also in several other countries.
Posted by: Naive | Jan 2 2024 17:47 utc | 46
The Swiss Military expert Jacques Baud has released a new book
The Russian Art of War: How the West Led Ukraine to Defeat (L’art de la guerre russe: Comment l’occident conduire l’ukraine a la echec
Posted by: Zhukov | Jan 2 2024 17:48 utc | 47
Posted by: Scorpion | Jan 2 2024 16:40 utc | 29 "Another way of saying this is that RF thinks strategically versus the West more tactically. Am not sure if this is true on the higher levels but it is certainly the case in general media coverage levels."
Your comment about "higher levels" (in the West's command/leadership) hits at something I think about. Are we missing the point? Are we dupes at a Punch and Judy puppet show, scoffing and pointing out the absurdities of the show, while the larger picture is we have paid for the show, are being pickpocketed by the management, and our homes are being robbed while we're being so smug about how correct we are?
What if all is going as planned by "higher levels", which is the destruction of western structures in place since WWII and before, so the new structure can be put in place with little resistance? I know I am paranoid, but am I wrong?
Posted by: Ben Gunn | Jan 2 2024 17:50 utc | 48
Posted by: Down South | Jan 2 2024 15:21 utc | 10
‘Our source in the General Staff said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces began to use mobile air defense tactics, when Patriot is moved to different sectors of the front to repel enemy air strikes.’
Assuming this source is correct it might also tie in with information on DPA, that Ukraine were so desperate to preserve the Krynki bridgehead that they moved a substantial number of launchers to protect it from the relentless, and obviously effective, aerial bombardment. These launchers were subsequently identified and destroyed, meaning industrial targets were far less protected, greatly boosting the effect of the recent missile strikes. Again, a classic example of the problems Ukraine faces trying to cover too much, with too little and the dangers of prioritising operations based on their political, rather than military, value. The determination to hold the strategically pointless Krynki bridgehead will be seen as one of the most egregious errors, costing the best part of an elite force and a substantial reduction in vital AD, both causing serious strategic ramifications which are only now being felt.
Posted by: Milites | Jan 2 2024 17:50 utc | 49
Posted by: Naive | Jan 2 2024 17:47 utc | 47
The problem is that the people in Ukraine believe it.
Not the Ukrainian and other people that were at the end trajectory points of those Kinzhal.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Jan 2 2024 17:51 utc | 50
There is also the news that Petro Poroshenko has said he and his wife will finance the rebuilding of the Banderite museum in Lvov and that Turkey won't allow the British minesweepers donated to Kiev into the Black Sea.
Posted by: the pessimist | Jan 2 2024 18:06 utc | 51
Of course, Stephen F. Cohen had my attention. Very much so.
And then into 2021 as the ramping up of evil in Ukraine and de facto the evil of NATO, I did not just delve, but dived into others views. Jaques Baud really seemed to explain and teach to my world view, but I also really liked Patrick Armstrong. Really liked.
And then he ceased. He stated it was not worth it to be threatened so much by the Canadian government for telling the what he believed with experience as a diplomat.
I saw maybe 2 weeks ago the Patrick was finally back to posting, but not as strongly as in the past. That is o.k. by me. It is really good to have Patrick back. It bears repeating, Putin has had a clear message for many many years.
The day to day and weekly events in Ukraine are not that worthy of as much comment - deep study these days, the attrition has spiked, grown, on the RF side. On the other side there are tentative tinglings of falling apart on the Ukran side. The Belgorod actions and the possible new marine drone with missiles is to me flailing of a failing state. And the flailing and falling apart is mirrored in the hosts, the EU, the NATO and the usOfa. Dangerous times.
B really distills and presents events excellently. Thank you.
Posted by: paxmark1 | Jan 2 2024 18:07 utc | 52
Posted by: Ben Gunn | Jan 2 2024 17:50 utc | 49
Summary: All planned, the sanctions against Russia a deliberate cleaving to support the WEF globalist agenda. I don’t know about its accuracy, but the explanation for why the US transitioned to an open border policy certainly makes economic sense. 2024 is beginning to resemble a cheesy movie plot, will the heroes cut the bomb’s wire in time, if they do, what will the timer stop at, 0:01 seconds?
Posted by: Milites | Jan 2 2024 18:08 utc | 53
Posted by: Zhukov | Jan 2 2024 17:48 utc | 48
Baud has repeated time and again that denazification was achieved after the capture of the azovites at Azovstal.
He also repeated that he does not know who destroyed the Kakhovka dam, hinting that it could have been the Russians.
He also believes the official version of the 9/11.
Posted by: Naive | Jan 2 2024 18:27 utc | 55
Best to call them what they are: Fascist MSM.Posted by: Robert Italia | Jan 2 2024 16:05 utc | 22
In the U.S. what many refer to as the MSM has been more accurately described as VIMA or vertically integrated media apparatus....as referred to by James Lindsay....it's easy to extrapolate what entities are pulling the levers of power on this propaganda machine...
Posted by: Giuseppe | Jan 2 2024 18:34 utc | 56
Interesting impact footage in the second half of the video, possibly the same target on the right being hit three times in quick succession.
https://t.me/milinfolive/113685
New footage of the X-101 flight, as well as arrivals in Kyiv.
Posted by: anon2020 | Jan 2 2024 18:38 utc | 57
Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 2 2024 16:40 utc | 30
Thanks a lot!!!
Posted by: Naive | Jan 2 2024 18:53 utc | 58
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Front #Summary for 2 Jan 2024 by 18:12⚡️🔹In #Kherson Direction, more AFU boats were hit at the #Dnieper crossing. The RF Armed Forces continue to strike at the AFU grouping in #Krynki.
🔹In #Zaporozhye Direction, near #Verbovoye there are counter battles. The AFU again pushed ours back from part of the positions southwest of the village. Our forces are responding with artillery strikes. On this section of the front, as in #Pyatikhatki, a number of positions are regularly changing hands. At the same time, our army continues its attacks near #Rabotino and #Novoprokopovka, and is slowly making progress.
🔹In #SouthDonetsk Direction, our military is actively attacking and storming AFU positions west of #Staromayorskoye. Fierce fighting is taking place in #Novomikhaylovka and west of #Maryinka. Our forces managed to take control of a number of enemy strongholds.
🔹In #Donetsk Direction, heavy fighting continues in the #Avdeyevka sector. On the northern flank, our military advanced to #Berdychi and occupied the forest belt on the northeastern outskirts of the village. On the southern flank, on the ground, not as active, but heavy fire suppression of AFU positions continues.
🔹In #Bakhmut Direction, our forces managed to dislodge the enemy north of #Kurdyumovka behind the railway line. After our recent success at #Bogdanovka, further advancement has slowed down so far. There are fierce battles, the AFU is trying to impose positional battles on ours in order to slow down the movement towards Chasov Yar.
🔹In #Svatovo Direction, our army has the initiative. However, it has not yet been possible to fully implement it on the ground. Ours continue to attack AFU positions in #Sinkovka and in the direction of #Terny.
https://t.me/sitreports/20374
Posted by: Down South | Jan 2 2024 18:55 utc | 59
Posted by: Ben Gunn | Jan 2 2024 17:50 utc | 49
It always pays off to be a little paranoid.
As far as big picture strategy, even if Ukraine/SMO resolves itself in the most favorable light to Russia, there are strategic "wins" for the neocons:
1. Europe carved off from Russia, now a vassal EU that is essentially the 52nd US state (with Canada keeping the honorary 51st state title.)
2. Lots of dead slavs. Cheap labor and tax base from Ukrainian diaspora & refugees in the EU, to support the welfare state a bit longer.
3. A rump Ukrainian zombie state to resettle with unwanted rabble from the EU, like ME refugees. The zombie-kraine can also be a hotbed of anti-Russian sentiment and Nazism. A thorn in Russia's side for a long time.
Of course, losing most of Ukraine and Crimea is a blow to NATO, but maybe worth it given the positives above.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 2 2024 19:02 utc | 60
Posted by: Milites | Jan 2 2024 18:08 utc | 54
Thank you for the link, Milites. And timely, at that!
Here is an excerpt that partially addresses my comment:
"You can argue whether the current cost drivers or inflationary reality was a feature (intent) or a flaw (short-sighted outcome) of the western sanction regime, in combination with the intentional Build Back Better energy shift.
Austan Goolsbee might say it’s an accidental outcome, while a more radical communist like Bill Ayers says it was intended.
Personally, I think it was absolutely an intended feature, created to pave the way for a digital Western currency; that’s what it looked like in March 2022, and that’s what it still looks like today.
Regardless of intent, the reality is here…. barely visible right now, but here, and the de-dollarization is growing."
Could this be all of the structural change desired? It could be, if money truly is the root of all evil.
Posted by: Ben Gunn | Jan 2 2024 19:06 utc | 61
Posted by: Giuseppe | Jan 2 2024 18:34 utc | 57
I prefer the soubriquet, ‘court stenographer’ as it captures the perfectly social pretensions of themselves and those they sycophantically serve.
Posted by: Milites | Jan 2 2024 19:24 utc | 62
Ukrainians are still fighting like devils. I do jot understabd why cant Russia destroy 750 Kv network, around Kharkov, for example. A clean bloodless solution.
Posted by: zorge | Jan 2 2024 19:39 utc | 63
Posted by: Ben Gunn | Jan 2 2024 19:06 utc | 62
Wheels within wheels; however, the architects of these schemes are having to rely on clowns to build and maintain them so what started out looking like an impressively intricate structure always starts to resemble a Big Top tent.
…if money truly is the root of all evil.’
The biblical quote is psychologically more astute, ‘….for the love of money is the route of all evil. If you know any of these self-entitles clowns, what strikes you first is the absolute fixation on money, power and status. As the wise old words say, money does not make you happy or sad, it just reveals who you truly are.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 2 2024 19:02 utc | 61
Are you trying to get a head start on the revisionist histories already in their first draft?
Posted by: Down South | Jan 2 2024 18:55 utc | 60
A point made for some posters who are not as au fait with military principles as others. If you’re wondering why there are numerous fights over possession of a single village it can be for the obvious operational reasons, but it can also be a tactic used when an opponent has supply problems. If the recent strategic strikes are targeting, amongst other things, depots, whilst the frontline troops are continuously under attack, then supply attrition becomes a far more serious problem than casualty replacement.
This is how joined up warfare works, strategic decisions influence operational ones, that in turn influences tactical options, and then the chain is reversed and repeated again. Ukraine are living only at the tactical level, they have little to no operational capability, due to losses and the strategic exists only as a series of nebulous political hopes, which necessarily contaminates any decision making processes below them.
Posted by: Milites | Jan 2 2024 20:03 utc | 64
@Milites - just trying to think like a neocon. It's an awful mental state, but just try to think of the most evil thing you can, and it is highly likely to be a neocon goal.
But yeah, what I wrote would make a decent first draft of the "losing = winning!" narrative that is no doubt being cooked up at the Kagans Christmas parties.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 2 2024 20:07 utc | 65
Rest assured no winding down, but ratcheting up and doubling down, you see the exact same provocations in Middle East with assassinations of resistance leaders, the Philippines in the S.China Sea. The USA and EU fucked up the hybrid war and Israel the Gaza genocide and all are desperate for WW3 where they are convinced they will have an absolute advantage. At some point Nasrallah, Raisi, Xi, Putin won't be able to let the pressure out of the cooker any longer:
The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will independently decide on the range of strikes carried out using HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, which the American authorities plan to transfer to the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the near future.
This statement was made by the US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink.
That is, the United States is sending clear signals, that they gave permission to fire long-range American missiles at Russian regions.
So in the coming weeks, shelling of the Crimea, Rostov, Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk regions from the HIMARS MLRS, ATACMS tactical missiles and Storm Shadow and SCAPL cruise missiles is not excluded - the United States and NATO will continue to raise the stakes.
Everything that lies below the threshold of the use of nuclear weapons can and will be used during the war in Ukraine. https://t.me/ZandVchannel/94401
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 2 2024 20:11 utc | 66
Great to see Patrick Armstrong back, even if in a tentative way and mindful that his pension might still be transferred to support the Jaroslav Hunkas beloved of Ottawa. But bruised though he may still be, at least he has not changed or recanted his opinions.
Posted by: Refinnejenna | Jan 2 2024 20:20 utc | 67
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 2 2024 20:11 utc | 67
In the Empire formula “we do X only because you did Y”, X is what they were going to do anyway and Y is a pretext they actively sought.
Always ask yourself if X is what they wanted in the first place and always interpret their threats are a useful heads-up.
Posted by: anon2020 | Jan 2 2024 20:28 utc | 68
These concluding remarks are excellent observations. History is everything. The entire Western leadership are adolescents in this regard: they LARP as though there were no past or consequences, like playing Call of Duty. The US used to know this otherwise their invasion of Europe in 1944 would have failed. Another name for all this is 'buying your own spin'. In the mean time Russia comes of age: a century of hard lessons, but they were clearly up for it. When the time comes the USA will follow Hemingway's bankruptcy path, and the least puff of wind will be enough to send it creaking into the dustbin of History.
Posted by: Patroklos | Jan 2 2024 20:38 utc | 69
Posted by: Ben Gunn | Jan 2 2024 17:50 utc | 49What if all is going as planned by "higher levels", which is the destruction of western structures in place since WWII and before, so the new structure can be put in place with little resistance? I know I am paranoid, but am I wrong?
You are not wrong but since much is hidden - even in well-run, honorable societies let alone in pathocracies like ours - one cannot know for sure what is going on.
However, we can peer into the other side of the mirror: in a well-run, honest society what is going on is clearly reflected – especially in terms of how it feels - like ripples from a pebble dropped gently into a tranquil pond spreading from point of origin to fringe and back again. Similarly, we all know what is going on all the time in terms of how it resonates even if we don't know all the details. But resonance-wise, perhaps we could say on the heart level, we all know the difference between noble and ignoble, cowardice and courage, honesty and dissembling.
So it seems we cannot get a clear read not so much because we are stupid (though we are) but mainly because one of the driving forces in our society is deceit deliberately obfuscating and confusing those not privy to the machinations at the heart of kleptocracies such as ours. However, counter-intuitively perhaps, the very fact that we cannot get a clear read on what is happening IS itself a clear read accurately discerning befuddlement, confusion, opacity.
Having seen confusion clearly, what next we must do is stop passively treating it as acceptable and normal. It is neither. And of course we can be more active in speaking truth.
Just what I hoped for in a thread yesterday.
https://x.com/philippilk/status/1742135590798209094?
Russia is importing more and more machinery and tools to build other machinery.
Hope Russia copies NATO patented and copyrighted products to re-industrialized at the expense of its enemies.
China is the largest supplier followed by Taiwan and South Korea. Excellent development.
Posted by: Jason | Jan 2 2024 20:42 utc | 71
"Russia importing a lot more precision machine tools (bolstering Chinese capital goods industry - predictable). This means they’re building up a robust and enhanced capital structure. The sanctions/war appear to spurred Russian economic development rather than hindering it."
Posted by: Jason | Jan 2 2024 20:44 utc | 72
Our resident Very Serious Idiot Milites supporting totally baseless conspiracy theories in this thread, as usual. I guess anything that helps explain reality works, as long as it's not Marxism am I right?
Pathetic hack.
Posted by: Stupid | Jan 2 2024 20:52 utc | 73
TG post with a still from a presumed Kinzhal strike. To me, zooming in on the red streak, the front third looks significantly whiter (hotter) and the rear two thirds significantly redder (cooler).
“ 🇺🇦 Video probably shows the arrival of Russian hypersonic missile.”
Posted by: anon2020 | Jan 2 2024 20:53 utc | 74
Sweden in trouble
via sputnik
Credit rating firm UC said December saw a 23 percent year-on-year rise in bankruptcies, which could indicate deeper economic issues, especially against the backdrop of sustained high inflation and interest rates.
--------
OSCE report couple weeks ago said western countries the average person is still no better off than in 2009....UK food inflation still 20%plus....UK expects just under 30000bankrupties this year ...thats is before the shipping problems in mid east etc
Posted by: Jo | Jan 2 2024 20:59 utc | 75
Posted by: Stupid | Jan 2 2024 20:52 utc | 74
I think the only thing pathetic is your belief Russia, or for that matter the PRC, are states run on Marxist principles. I might add that the unnecessary virulence of your post might suggest, to a neutral reader, that something I said touched a nerve.
Posted by: Milites | Jan 2 2024 21:03 utc | 76
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 2 2024 20:11 utc | 67
Man, that's not good news for Russia. It can't reliably down the Storm Shadows or take out the HIMARS launchers. So many more people are about to die.
Posted by: bored | Jan 2 2024 21:06 utc | 77
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 2 2024 20:07 utc | 66@Milites - just trying to think like a neocon. It's an awful mental state, but just try to think of the most evil thing you can, and it is highly likely to be a neocon goal.
I think that the stated neocon goal of breaking Russia up into five pieces is not serious. What I suspect is desired is to so stress and confuse both Russia and the West as to be able to take over Ukraine and thus have a stranglehold on the entire Great Game including the New Multipolar World. If so, then the neocons running much of the captured USA serve higher masters.
Who are? I really don't know but the Chabad thesis is intriguing...
Before defining the Third Khazaria in detail, I’d like to quote the well-known Serbian scholar, doctor of Jurisprudence and talented publicist, Bozidar Mitrovic — one of the few of our contemporaries who’ve noticed the “Khazarian thread” running through the history of the Eastern Slavs.The first Khazar military putsch took place in 1917 in Petrograd. It’s obvious that the Khazars hadn’t disappeared; therefore, one ought to bear in mind that the military putsch in Petrograd in 1917 was organized by Khazar extremists, who made up an absolute majority in the war committees later known as “revolutionary”, in which Russians comprised less than one percent. The Vatican, Protestant-Catholic Germany and Jewish extremists from Wall Street financed Lenin’s anti-Russian military putsch in Petrograd in 1917.
Germany’s goal was the defeat of its enemy on the Eastern Front. This was accomplished by the signing of the Brest Peace Agreement, which had negative consequences. The Vatican’s goal was the destruction of Orthodoxy, which it nearly accomplished. The goal of the Jewish extremists was the creation of an anti-national government, in which the question of the Jewish state would be solved, as well as the establishment of monopolistic control over the enormous source of natural and human resources which Russia comprised, in the interests of its own enrichment…
…The Second Khazarian military putsch was carried out in 1993 in Moscow, when Khazar-Jewish extremists (who were carrying out extreme forms of economic transformation) took over the executive power, leading positions in the parties, including opposition ones, power over the mass-media and the banking system.”
While agreeing in principle with Bozidar Mitrovic’s conclusions, I’m at variance with him on a few details. For example, I consider the year 1991 to be the starting date in the history of the Third Khazaria, and the location of the putsch (not a military one, but nonetheless a putsch) to be the Belovezhsky Forest. [where the agreement dissolving the USSR was signed — Editor]
–from Bozidar Trifunov Mitrovic, “Genocide of the Romans and Slavs,” Moscow, BTM, 1999
via http://tinyurl.com/ycggyvr7
In other words, I think Ukraine itself is the prize, not just a means to a geopolitical end. However, recent remarks of RF President Putin seem to hint that he is going to restore all the Russian zones, including presumably Kiev and Odessa, back to Russia and leave the Austro-Hungarian remainders for Western vultures to pick over. This hints at restoring NovoRussiya as traditional Russian and Orthodox rather than hosting a latter day Khazaria on his border.
Interesting times.
Dima says that Ukraine won the battle for Sinkovka and that Russia has little time left.
Posted by: zorge | Jan 2 2024 21:12 utc | 79
Posted by: Milites | Jan 2 2024 19:24 utc | 63
How about "amanuensis" ?
Subtle changes in meaning over the years but I think "slave scribe" in ancient Rome which seems to fit.
Posted by: Saul Goode | Jan 2 2024 21:12 utc | 80
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 2 2024 19:02 utc | 61
1. Europe carved off from Russia, now a vassal EU that is essentially the 52nd US state (with Canada keeping the honorary 51st state title.)
2. Lots of dead slavs. Cheap labor and tax base from Ukrainian diaspora & refugees in the EU, to support the welfare state a bit longer.
3. A rump Ukrainian zombie state to resettle with unwanted rabble from the EU, like ME refugees. The zombie-kraine can also be a hotbed of anti-Russian sentiment and Nazism. A thorn in Russia's side for a long time.
1. I doubt that any of the above was the Primary Objective of the U.S. goons. The U.S. does not have the resources, including energy to keep Europe beholden for much longer. More than likely they bet on Ukraine having the ability on the battle field that their mouths kept saying.
2. Canada will remain as it always has. Built on hating America, yet publicly kissing U.S. butt.
3. Ukraine and Ukrainians, in general, were never cursed with the Work Ethic. Just like the U.S. Slavery is a fool's game, better to pay for competent work.
4. There will be no Zombie Ukrainian state controlled by the West. Poland, Hungary and Romania will break ranks with Uncle Sam and take their lands back, sans Bandera disciples. Of course, I could be wrong and Poland could ask Britain to protect them like WWII.
Posted by: kupkee | Jan 2 2024 21:12 utc | 81
USA will follow Hemingway's bankruptcy path...
@ Patroklos | Jan 2 2024 20:38 utc | 70
Q) How did you go bankrupt?
A) Two ways: gradually, then suddenly.
Thanks for that. I recently reread Hemmingway's Farewell to Arms. I had forgotten what a superb writer he is. Farewell is a stupidly tragic love story front and center, with obscure military manoeuvres comprising bizarre background scenery.
Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jan 2 2024 21:16 utc | 82
Japan has transferred back some of its US patriot systems. Shows Americans are desperate, obtaining air defense systems from anywhere they can get.
Russia can force NATO air defenses thinner by supplying drones and missiles to Houthis and Hezbollah.
No let up on attacks on Ukraine. Keep their air defenses engaged to deplete and destroy them.
The new Kh-31 missile seems to be a champ according to Ukie admissions. Not sure if this is to mislead. What if,
0/10 or (0%) of Kinzhal Missiles
0/70 or (0%) of X-101 Missiles
0/3 or (0%) of Kalibr Missiles
12/12 or (100%) of Ballistic Missiles
0/4 or (0%) of Kh-31P Missiles
Intercepting ballistic missiles is not that difficult. Predicted path. Fixed launch positions.
Looks to me Ukies are deliberately creating disinformation to mislead any trusting Russian. Just look out for new begging bowl tactics by Ukraine to gauge the true extent of the destruction.
Posted by: Jason | Jan 2 2024 21:17 utc | 83
Slightly offtopic. From the former Ukraine-Thread in case Micron moved already to this one.
Posted by: Micron | Jan 2 2024 14:49 utc | 208
I found an possible answer why you don‘t see any Ka-52 videos.
Source:
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/end-of-2023-roundup-update-on-the
„Sure, Russia has Ka-52s, but they operate from FARPS so far away that by the time they’re called in, Ukrainian armor has long withdrawn. It works fine for larger assaults, but for fitful positional engagements it’s ineffective. In Avdeevka we see M2 Bradleys pop out for a few minutes to rake Russian positions along the forest landings, then quickly retreat. A UCAV nearby could have engaged them within minutes. Instead, a Ka-52 might take 30-45 minutes to arrive and those M2s are long gone back to some hangar in Berdychi.“
Posted by: NoName | Jan 2 2024 21:18 utc | 84
Posted by: Patroklos | Jan 2 2024 20:38 utc | 70
Well, Communism ended up on the ash heap, so a creaking bin is a step up in disposal methods!
Posted by: bored | Jan 2 2024 21:06 utc | 77
Or it could have the reverse meaning, not pledging continued support; instead, telling Ukraine you’re on your own, and don’t say we didn’t warn you. This really could be seen as the West washing its hands of Ukraine and telling Russia, do what you have to do to finish this. Again, I’m pretty sure there’s a Russian contingency plan next to the heading: ‘Ukraine given autonomy in long range artillery targeting decisions. If I was being particularly Machiavellian, I’d suggest some in Russia might actually welcome such an escalation.
Posted by: Milites | Jan 2 2024 21:49 utc | 85
Posted by: Ben Gunn | Jan 2 2024 17:50 utc | 49
In the greater scheme of things the war in Ukraine is more like a tactical level operation.
Slowing down its pace as the Russians have been doing may well interrupt planning by their enemies on higher levels.
For an example of high level planning watch The Great Taking - Documentary by David Webb
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dk3AVceraTI
Taking out Russia, and subsequently China, and conquering the world takes decades of planning and meticulous execution. However, once initiated such dynamics cannot by fully controlled. By slowing down the pace of the war in Ukraine Russia may well disrupt this planning. After all, nobody, none of the pundits I know of anyway, has foreseen the way the war has been developing. Russia is definitely growing stronger because of it, the US and especially the EU are getting weaker. This surely wasn't the original intention, unless someone is playing 8D chess.
What else has been planned to occur (a new financial crisis anyone?) and in what way will the unexpected situation in Ukraine, and possibly in the Middle East, interfere with these plans?
2024 is surely going to be an interesting year!
Posted by: Michael | Jan 2 2024 21:49 utc | 86
Ukrainians are still fighting like devils. I do jot understabd why cant Russia destroy 750 Kv network, around Kharkov, for example. A clean bloodless solution.
Posted by: zorge | Jan 2 2024 19:39 utc | 64
Because the Ukrainians would then freeze to death. Not soldiers and mercenaries, not politcians, they will have heating, and even mobile electricity generators.
The remaining civilian population will die a horrible death. Or join the army.
Clean and bloodless? Do us all a favor. Don't go into politics. We already have too many idiots clogging up the parliaments.#
Posted by: Martina | Jan 2 2024 21:52 utc | 87
kupkee | Jan 2 2024 21:12 utc | 81
*** Of course, I could be wrong and Poland could ask Britain to protect them like WWII.***
Ask for protection? but Poland did not.
It was London which unilaterally issued a declaration of intent to "protect" Poland -- probably to make Poland and Germany as suspicious of each other as possible.
Romania, already allied with Germany, got an even more ridiculous offer like that.
Posted by: Cynic | Jan 2 2024 22:01 utc | 88
I believe that recently a general (I don't even remember his name) from NATO was assigned to Ukraine. Has it already become a barbecue at the Hotel Europa?
Posted by: Willian in universe | Jan 2 2024 22:07 utc | 89
Posted by: Saul Goode | Jan 2 2024 21:12 utc | 80
Yes, an implied to the ‘elites’ imperial pretensions, to those who favour more direct solutions, ‘noose fodder’.
Posted by: zorge | Jan 2 2024 21:12 utc | 79
With a summary like that you could work for any of the alphabet news programmes.
Posted by: Michael | Jan 2 2024 21:49 utc | 86
Some analysts on the side of the alternatives to manoeuvre warfare debate had accurately predicted the general direction this war might take, before it started*. But manoeuvre warfare is is sexy and heavily invested in so even now it’s a popular doctrine, albeit with numerous caveats that never existed before the SMO, or adopting positions that were discounted previously.
* https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03071847.2022.2058601
Posted by: Milites | Jan 2 2024 22:17 utc | 90
According to Slavyangrad: United States urgently transfers air defense missiles to Ukraine and evacuates the wounded.
From the navigation portal FlightRadar24 and various “own sources”, an American military transport aircraft C-130 Hercules is approaching the Polish airfield in Rzeszow.
From Kharkov and Odessa, NATO troops injured today in Ukraine are being actively transported to Romanian hospitals for subsequent evacuation.
The following figures are given: 27 Poles, three British, 9 Czechs, 12 Lithuanians. In addition, tomorrow a separate aircraft will pick up the bodies of another 21 NATO officers who died.
Posted by: Belle | Jan 2 2024 22:29 utc | 91
zorge @ 79
Dima says that Ukraine won the battle for Sinkovka and that Russia has little time left.
If I had a penny for everything that Dima has gotten wrong...
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 2 2024 22:29 utc | 92
Ask for protection? but Poland did not.
It was London which unilaterally issued a declaration of intent to "protect" Poland -- probably to make Poland and Germany as suspicious of each other as possible.
Romania, already allied with Germany, got an even more ridiculous offer like that.
Posted by: Cynic | Jan 2 2024 22:01 utc | 88
1. Spring 1939 Britain and France guaranteed Poland's independence. Unilaterally or not, Poland did not repudiate the offer.
2. August 1939 Britain and Poland signed a mutual assistance agreement. By September Germany invaded Poland. Britain provided copious amounts of moral assistance.
Posted by: kupkee | Jan 2 2024 22:48 utc | 94
Posted by: Milites | Jan 2 2024 16:46 utc | 32
Re: gaming out scenarios and escalation ladders.
This exactly. I can accept (as an American) deep disagreement and even disgust with my leaders for their actions. It’s the incompetence that really gets me. These people didn’t game any of this out appropriately. Nor is it about the gaming producing accurate predictions of Russian behavior, that’s always luck to a degree. It is clear that they’re not prepared with a suite of options for given scenarios with follow on predictions based on their options.
These are not serious people. They best they can do is put themselves into untenable positions such they can’t back out them without losing their “honor”.
Posted by: Lex | Jan 2 2024 22:52 utc | 95
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 2 2024 22:29 utc | 92
I’m not a great fan of Dimanalytics, but he said no such thing. Relying on geo-located footage he showed Ukrainian troops had recaptured Sinkovka, but said the Russians would be back. He also reported that a heavy concentration of Ukrainian troops, from one of the regiments involved had been hit badly in the rear area. From the footage, and the posture of the Ukrainian troops, it suggests the Russians pulled back as part of their flexible defence doctrine, leaving the Ukrainian to man this salient, with little to no help from adjoining units, and weather the artillery storm already hitting their positions.
Posted by: Milites | Jan 2 2024 22:53 utc | 96
Posted by: HERMIUS | Jan 2 2024 22:30 utc | 93
That city is just 25km from the border. How things are going, Ukrainians will bomb it to smithereens. No AD can down salvos of cheap dumb MRLS or other artillery.
And NATO escalating to allow long range missiles against Russia proper, we shall be seeing a lot of the Russian rear being attacked. Airfields, depots, infrastructure and even nuclear powerplants.
What does Russia have to match the escalation?
Will rear attacks and civilian atrocities force negotiations? How will this escalation resolve itself seeing that the actual war on the ground is not going anywhere?
Posted by: alek_a | Jan 2 2024 22:53 utc | 97
wagelaborer | Jan 2 2024 17:31 utc | 43--
Thanks for your reply. I'm very pleased you pointed out that portion of Putin's talk. Russia could fight just as dirty as NATO; but to show Russia's better morally, Russia chooses not to lower itself. And that allows for the stark difference to be made between Russia's liberation of Russian Ukraine versus the West's long very bloody history of Imperialism. The only tool the West has is its Russophobic excesses, which Russia easily and consistently parries.
Posted by: alek_a | Jan 2 2024 22:53 utc | 97
Sounds like you have a very, very serious case of Hopium. Sit down and drink a glass of cold sober water.
Posted by: kupkee | Jan 2 2024 23:06 utc | 99
alek_a | Jan 2 2024 22:53 utc | 97--
There's only one way to solve the artillery shelling of Russian territory near the Ukie border and that's to push the border back into Ukraine via an offensive. The other not quite as good option is to saturate the most afflicted regions with hunter drones and other air assets to kill Ukie artillery. That's one of the tasks the new Termites will be given. Given NATO/Ukie philosophy is Nazism, they will continue to terrorize civilians until the shooters are eliminated--for they will use anything possible to inflict damage: That's their Standing--War Crime--Orders. Putin was asked about prosecution of those guilty of such crimes to which he answered Most Certainly, and we know that's already happening thanks to Zakharova's weekly updates. Why won't the West give the UN the names of those killed by the Ukies at Bucha or elsewhere? Because the West doesn't want to help Russia catch and convict any of its terrorists. I'm surprised we haven't seen White Helmets in any Ukie video productions.
If Russia does attack in the Kharkov region, where will the Ukies find the troops to defend? And you can bet Russia's command is looking at/planning solutions.
The comments to this entry are closed.
i heard they hit the bandera museum in lwow, good riddance
Posted by: leaf | Jan 2 2024 14:48 utc | 1