Ukraine SitRep: No Chance To Win - Zero Democracy - Power Scuffle
There are a few new reports and news bites from Ukraine which are of interest.
Stephen Biddle, a professor who was written on strategy and military power from a realist standpoint, looks at the state of the war In Ukraine.
How Russia Stopped Ukraine’s Momentum - Foreign Affairs, January 29, 2024
Deep Defense Is Hard to Beat
The essence:
By late spring, the Russians had adopted the kind of deep, prepared defenses that have been very difficult for attackers to break through for more than the last century of combat experience. Breakthrough has been—and still is—possible in land warfare. But this has long required permissive conditions that are now absent in Ukraine: a defender, in this case Russia, whose dispositions are shallow, forward, ill prepared, or logistically unsupported or whose troops are unmotivated and unwilling to defend their positions. That was true of Russian forces in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson in 2022. It is no longer the case.The implications of this for Ukraine are grim. Without an offensive breakthrough, success in land warfare becomes an attrition struggle. A favorable outcome for Ukraine in a war of attrition is not impossible, but it will require its forces to outlast a numerically superior foe in what could become a very long war.
Biddle does not expand from there.
But we know that the current Russian disposition of waging an 'active defense' is delivering day by day some small progress along the whole front.
Ukraine's artillery losses have become smaller because it simply lacks the munitions to fire. A cannon that can not fire stops to be a priority target.
First Person View (FBV) drones have became a major cause of all losses. Ukraine was first to use those but Russia has since rapidly ramped up their production. Meanwhile Ukraine is still lagging. Each day hundreds of these drones clear Ukrainian positions without causing significant losses for the attacking Russian side.
In the New Yorker Masha Gesses takes a look at the political scene in Kiev:
Ukraine’s Democracy in Darkness - (archived) - The New Yorker
With elections postponed and no end to the war with Russia in sight, Volodymyr Zelensky and his political allies are becoming like the officials they once promised to root out: entrenched.
Gessen finds that democracy in Ukraine, if it still exists, is in a sorry state:
Such was the state of Ukraine as it entered its third consecutive winter at war: still battling the demon of corruption, still defiant, yet visibly reduced, palpably tired. ... In the meantime, in Ukraine, democracy is largely suspended. According to the regular order of things, Ukraine should have a Presidential election in March. Up until the end of November—a few weeks before the deadline for scheduling the election—Zelensky’s office seemed open to having one, but ultimately decided against it. “We shouldn’t have elections, because elections always create disunity,” Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former defense minister who now advises the government, told me. “We need to be unified.”An estimated four to six million Ukrainians are living under Russian occupation. At least four million are living in E.U. countries, a million more are living in Russia, and at least half a million are living elsewhere outside of Ukraine. Another four million have been internally displaced. These figures include a significant number of people who became adults after the war began and aren’t registered to vote. “Elections are a public discussion,” Oleksandra Romantsova, the executive director of Ukraine’s Center for Civil Liberties, which shared the Nobel Peace Prize in 2022, told me. “But a third of the population is connected with the military. Another third is displaced.” With so many people excluded from the public discussion, what would an election even mean? ..."
All power in Ukraine has been concentrated in the President's office:
At the start of the war, when Russia was bombing Kyiv daily, the parliament had to consider the risks of continuing to hold meetings in its building, which has a glass roof. It decided to do so, but to vote only on bills that a majority wanted to bring to the floor, and to limit discussion of amendments. This effectively shifted the center of legislative work to the President’s office. Among other bills, the parliament approved the declaration of martial law, introduced by Zelensky on the first day of the war, and has regularly renewed it. Martial law enables the cabinet of ministers to control who can enter and leave the country—since the start of the war, men under the age of sixty have been forbidden to leave—and to regulate the work of all media outlets, printing presses, and distribution companies.Zelensky’s office created the United News TV Marathon, a round-the-clock program of war-related news and talk shows, supplanting what had been a vibrant and varied television news market. The segments appear on six of Ukraine’s major channels and, at any given time, all of them are showing the same thing. Despite its name, United Marathon was clearly designed to be a sprint. In the early months of the war, the programming had a sense of urgency, of novelty and shock. Now even the worst days—when Russia fires a barrage of rockets that kill civilians across the country—are like all the other terrible days, when people are killed in the same way, in more or less the same places. There is little to analyze anymore. “The one thing all Ukrainians agree on is that we need an end to the Marathon,” Romantsova told me.
Other government-controlled media target an international audience.
An example of the power struggle around the presidential office could be witnessed yesterday.
Around noon several reliable political sources in Ukraine reported that President Zelensky had signed a decree to fire the Commander in Chief General Zaluzny. Hours later the Ministry of Defense denied that Zaluzny was fired.
From information gained since we can somewhat reconstruct what had happened.
Zaluzny had been ordered into the President's office. He was asked to write his resignation. As consolation gift he would receive an ambassadorship in some western European country.
Zaluzny rejected the request and insisted of getting fired or being allowed to stay in place.
Zelenski had planned to promote the Chief of the Main Directorate of Intelligence in Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov as the new Commander in Chief.
Here is where I believe that other high officers, and likely also the U.S. military, stepped in.
Budanov has been in special forces intelligence from the very beginning of his career. He has never commanded anything larger than a group. Not a platoon, not a company, not a battalion, not a brigade, not a division and not a corp. How can someone who has zero experience in leading actual force formations supposed to be the commander of all Ukrainian forces including the army, air-force and navy?
It is impossible.
Budanov seems to be somewhat loyal to Zelenski (though I bet he really isn't). He is handsome and looks good on camera. He is a smooth talker. He is also a creative and talented terrorist. His actual military operations though, like the ground raids into Belgograd, have mostly been mediocre failures.
I am pretty sure that the Pentagon and even the White House may have called Kiev and stopped Zelenski from implementing such nonsense.
Zaluzny will, for now, stay in his position.
But the whole affair will have diminished the military's view of Zelenski and his consorts. In just one day a military coup In Kiev has suddenly become much more possible. As further the military situation deteriorates the higher are the chances that it will eventually happen.
Posted by b on January 30, 2024 at 13:18 UTC | Permalink
next page »Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of January 30, 2024)
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to conduct a special military operation.
— In the Kupyansk direction, units of the "Western" grouping of troops, with active actions and artillery fire, repelled three attacks by assault groups of the 30th, 32nd and 44th mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of the settlement of Sinkovka, Kharkiv region.
The enemy lost over 140 soldiers, two armored combat vehicles and two vehicles.
— In the Krasnolimansk direction, the active actions of the Center group of troops improved the situation along the front edge and repelled three attacks by assault groups of the 60th and 63rd mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Yampolovka of the Donetsk People's Republic and Chervonaya Dibrova of the Luhansk People's Republic.
The enemy's losses amounted to up to 290 soldiers, three tanks, four armored combat vehicles and five cars.
— In the Donetsk direction, units of the "Southern" group of troops, supported by aviation, artillery fire and heavy flamethrower systems, occupied more advantageous lines and positions.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces' manpower and equipment were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Krasnoe, Andreevka, Novomikhailovka, Kurdyumovka and Georgievka of the Donetsk People's Republic.
The enemy lost up to 310 servicemen killed and wounded, two tanks, three infantry fighting vehicles, and 11 vehicles.
In addition, during the counter-battery struggle, the following were hit: a Polish-made self-propelled Krab artillery installation and two Msta-B howitzers.
— In the South Donetsk direction, units of the Vostok group of forces, in cooperation with aviation and artillery, inflicted fire damage on the manpower and equipment of the 72nd mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Konstantinovka and Ugledar of the Donetsk People's Republic.
The losses of the Armed Forces amounted to up to 60 soldiers, a tank and two cars. During the counter-battery struggle, two British-made FH-70 howitzers and one D-30 gun were hit.
— In the Zaporizhia direction, units of the Russian group of troops, with the support of artillery, defeated the manpower and equipment of the 3rd brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine in the area of the settlement of Rabotino, Zaporizhia region.
The enemy lost up to 40 soldiers, three vehicles, an Acacia self-propelled artillery installation, as well as a D-30 howitzer.
— In the Kherson direction, as a result of the active actions of units of the Russian group of troops and the complex fire defeat of the enemy, the losses of the Armed Forces amounted to up to 45 servicemen, two cars and two D-30 howitzers.
— Operational and tactical aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, missile troops and artillery of groups of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation during the day hit: the fuel depot of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the radar station of the anti-aircraft missile complex "IRIS-T" manufactured by Germany, as well as manpower and military equipment in 112 districts.
By means of air defense, 12 HIMARS and Uragan multiple rocket launchers were shot down, as well as a US-made JDAM guided aerial bomb.
In addition, 86 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed, including in the areas of the settlements of Zolotarevka, Popasnaya, Kremennaya of the Luhansk People's Republic, Verkhnekamenskoye, Yampolovka of the Donetsk People's Republic, Ocheretovatoye, Shevchenkovo, Mirnoye, Konstantinovka, Lyubimovka of the Zaporozhye region and Korsunka of the Kherson region.
In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 568 aircraft, 265 helicopters, 11431 unmanned aerial vehicles, 456 anti-aircraft missile systems, 14,847 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,211 multiple rocket launchers, 7,902 field artillery and mortar guns, as well as 18042 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed.
Posted by: rumod report | Jan 30 2024 13:50 utc | 2
I wonder what the average Ukie infantryman thinks of all this, sitting in his cold wet trench being shelled and chased by deadly drones, short of ammo and watching his mates get killed and wounded whilst his officers are far to the rear? End game type scenario unfolding...
Posted by: marcjf | Jan 30 2024 14:36 utc | 5
Mr Biddle does not say that breaking strong fortified lines requires dominion of the air. It's not only about a demotivated enemy. It's about his asphyxiation under a sufficient amount of bombs.
If Mr Biddle had explained this to his readers, it would have been immediately clear to them that this conflict is lost, as not even Zelenski on a pound of cocaine can believe 20 or 30 old F-16s can do the trick.
Posted by: Augusto Pi | Jan 30 2024 14:38 utc | 6
Budanov, zelensky, arestovich and even zaluzni were good looking young men going into this war.
They had the right skin end eye color and smiles all around. Followed the great Bandera, the father of Ukraine. The EU and NATO were happy and proud.
2 years into this war and they are looking like meth heads. Skin looks all wrong, overweight and look hung over. War is hell I guess especially a war where you are getting you ass wooped.
Posted by: Comandante | Jan 30 2024 14:44 utc | 7
Budanov is handsome???
Posted by: v | Jan 30 2024 14:08 utc | 4
____
Well, you know, de gustibus and all that.
Although some of the major Ukronazis do seem to be trying to parlay what they think are their physical charms. elensky obviously dresses to show he’s been pumping iron, although that doesn’t quite compensate for the baby fat. Arestovich pulls it off better.
Posted by: malenkov | Jan 30 2024 14:47 utc | 8
Like in the United States after the Civil War, Ukrainian women will have to adjust to a new definition of good looks in a man, missing limbs etc now being the case.
Posted by: Morongobill | Jan 30 2024 14:51 utc | 9
All it takes is someone with a pistol to make that resignation permanent. But nope no one wants to get blood on their hands.
Posted by: Surferket | Jan 30 2024 14:57 utc | 10
@ Morongobill | Jan 30 2024 14:51 utc | 9
That, or they’ll join the untold thousands of their sisters (not to mention the Polish ones) who are already working the streets of Western Europe for 20 Euro a pop.
Posted by: malenkov | Jan 30 2024 14:59 utc | 11
Ukraine now has the sort of "democracy" being strived for in the utterly corrupt West.
Posted by: Perimetr | Jan 30 2024 15:01 utc | 12
Military coup.
Kiev sounding like 1963 Saigon. When do the Kiev bosses get the Diem treatment.
Most likely US DoD, DoS and CIA dividing the tasks.
No theat to the flow of money!
Posted by: paddy | Jan 30 2024 15:02 utc | 13
Posted by: Perimetr | Jan 30 2024 15:01 utc | 12
well, as ursula and borrell stated so often: "ukraine and the eu share the same western values!"
Posted by: Justpassinby | Jan 30 2024 15:29 utc | 14
All this drama about who is the titular leader of the AFU... They're all extremist nationalists. Despite slight variations, they're all comfortable with their forces committing war crimes pretty much daily. They all will execute whatever strategy is supported by their handlers from Washington. They will simultaneously have loyalties to the also nationalist local quasi-mafia who become the new generation of oligarchs, and as the situation is a great opportunity to "make money", they'll be inclined to prolong the status quo, in the event groups within Washington can't quite make up their mind.
Posted by: pxx | Jan 30 2024 15:40 utc | 15
The state of democracy in Ukraine may not be unlike the state of democracy in Canada where a federal election was called in the midst of a lockdown that suspended constitutional rights of citizens in an atmosphere of fear, censorship and rule by diktat. There were no debates, no public discourse and there was only one choice - comply or go homeless.
Not intending to go OT with this but in my view democracy, if it exists at all has been eroded in the west to the point we might actually be on par with Ukraine.
Posted by: simon crow | Jan 30 2024 15:46 utc | 16
Marcjf@#5-this did make me smile! When I was an involuntary, conscript rifleman, we used to have weekly, sometimes daily visits, from lieutenants, aged 22, who used to give us “intelligence based” briefings of where the ‘terrs’ were and where we were safe. As we hunkered down waiting for the mortar rounds to burst (you could often hear the thunk thunk as they were fired) you realised just how ignorant and fucked up the officers and those directing them were. No idea of what really happens.
My heart goes out to infantrymen of both sides.
Posted by: Vragtes | Jan 30 2024 16:06 utc | 17
It should be noted that with the land bridge to Crimea secured Russia has already secured a strategic victory, not to mention battling Nato to a standstill. They tried everything short of a direct invasion of Russia.
For that matter making it a nato vs Russia conflict was also a victory for russia. The initial narrative was nato helping ukraine but now it's clear ukraine has no sovereignty but is a colony.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jan 30 2024 16:10 utc | 18
Where is the TrollTeam this morning to explain that "Ukraine is beating those dumb Russians who really should be nuking something, anything"?
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Jan 30 2024 16:15 utc | 19
@ Posted by: v | Jan 30 2024 14:08 utc | 4
“ Budanov is handsome??? “
Are you blind? He’s an absolute lady killer! All the Ukrophims want to be him and all the ukrophers want to be his!
https://www.picclickimg.com/LsYAAOSw~iJlte73/Super7-Nosferatu-ULTIMATES-Wave-2.webp
https://i.etsystatic.com/40807946/r/il/47376b/5321657323/il_794xN.5321657323_g3bh.jpg
See!! He is a venerable dishy icon of ukropia.
Posted by: DunGroanin | Jan 30 2024 16:16 utc | 20
The Russian attack on Adveevka is not an active defense, it is a full blown offensive which has failed nearly as badly as the Ukrainian counter offensive of this past summer and fall. And despite 5D chess vibez, there has not been much Russian progress on other fronts. This is a stalemate that now neither the Russians nor Ukrainians seem able to break.
Look for an armistice at more or less the current line of control (the ball is in Ukraine’s court as to when this will happen), and somewhat more controversially, I expect Russian reparations/purchase of Crimea/friendly gesture in the form of about $100-$200 billion to Ukraine. Pro-Z will howl but 60%+ of Russians will be secretly happy that the war is over and they can go back to buying iPhones and holidaying in attractive places again
Posted by: Bingo Tastic | Jan 30 2024 16:22 utc | 21
The vile and despicable Gessen is adept at depicting an authoritarian police state using a sophisticated propaganda machine to control its populace as 'shit happens' to a democracy. It's akin to shaping a pile of dog shit into something that sort of looks like a t-bone steak and proclaiming it as a tasty meal, which the Times readers eat with gusto.
Posted by: Mike R | Jan 30 2024 16:27 utc | 22
Posted by: Vragtes | Jan 30 2024 16:06 utc | 17
The British Army have a very good system for reducing the impact junior officers have on any operation. The Second Lieutenant attends the ‘O’ Group, where all relevant services brief those present and the operational outcomes are decided. The officer, upon returning to his unit, immediately finds the Sergeant and tells him what they discussed, whereupon the veteran sergeant devises a plan of action for their platoon. The Second Lieutenant dutifully copies down the plan with his regulation pencil and then briefs the men as to ‘his’ plan. Works great, unless the Second Lieutenant exercises his own initiative and then it often goes ‘tits up’. The veteran IDF soldiers I talked to said the whole unit would would have a say in any plan, with a majority vote needed to proceed, officers and non-coms only coming into their own during the exigent circumstances of combat.
Interesting to see footage of a Russian commander directing his troops from the rear via a drone, a 21st Century version of the Vietnam ‘Big Man in the bird’ aerial C3 technique, with all the attendant advantages and disadvantages, especially the perception that the command element is not sharing the danger of the grunts under their command. This phenomenon is a reverse of Soviet doctrine, where command elements, of all levels, were expected to be upfront and directing, literally ‘hands on’. Technology, it seems, always seems to present the warrior with the opportunity to draw two-edged swords, remote via-drone command being the latest.
Posted by: Milites | Jan 30 2024 16:54 utc | 24
>Budanov has been in special forces intelligence from the very beginning of his career. He has never commanded anything larger than a group. Not a platoon, not a company, not a battalion, not a brigade, not a division and not a corp. How can someone who has zero experience in leading actual force formations supposed to be the commander of all Ukrainian forces including the army, air-force and navy?
>It is impossible.
You might want to reflect on Alexander the Great and Corporal->Emperor Napoleon before concluding that decades of experience at progressively higher commands is so important. More typically, too many years of experience obeying stupid orders from inferiors crushes native ability, and only the strongest personalities can regain their original vigor upon reaching top command. Certainly years of experience has not produced an impressive group of generals in the modern USA military.
I'm not saying Budanov is Alexander the Great or Napoleon, but I personally would be much more frightened of an army led by Budanov than Zaluzhny. Zaluzhny obeys the rules, precisely because of his many years of experience. Budanov is more likely to put Zelensky and Ermak under close guard, threaten to impale them on a stake if they don't do what he says, then put all available resources into pushing terror into Russia and elsewhere. Ukraine will still lose the war regardless of its military commander, but Budanov is the type who will try to bring down the whole world along with Ukraine. He is the worst of CIA/MI6 on steroids (steroids may be why he looks a little puffy these days, there was also his injury, he was better looking before that injury).
Posted by: anonposter | Jan 30 2024 16:55 utc | 25
Coke psychosis in media diva leads to a girlie slap fight. NATO intervenes before someone shivs the diva. These catty bitches are the hill the European Union chooses to die on. News at 11.
/back to warbling in the bush
Posted by: titmouse | Jan 30 2024 16:58 utc | 26
When a Ukrainian offensive fails, pro-Z is like omg our lines didn’t collapse I am so surprised check no err we finally did it!
When a Russian offensive fails, pro-Z is like omg, how naive do you have to be to think we were actually trying to take Adveevka, we are not taking it on purpose dontcha know. Also it’s not an offensive, it’s active defense
Posted by: Z Respecter | Jan 30 2024 17:04 utc | 27
All the reports from Ukraine indicate that the most important politicians, government employees and sub contractors already have their left foot outside Ukraine (often in a more-than-average luxurious area of a given EU country). The wealth is based on very few factors, the US/EU have granted those people wealth in exchange for them creating ever more oppressing mobilization laws within Ukraine, with the purpose of serving US goals of proxy war.
The country is basically a headless chicken or rudderless ship or whatever you want to call it now. Nato mercenaries with western weapons, from behind the backs of hapless Ukrainians launch terrorist attacks on civilians. Azov and Skala and Kraken nazis are shooting the mobilized directly now, which is a pure definition of genocide.
It is a low likelihood that the current Ukraine has any sort of future, as it has been completely ransacked and sold off.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 30 2024 17:09 utc | 28
thanks b... i highlight the 2 comments below as there is much truth in them too..
"Ukraine now has the sort of "democracy" being striven for in the utterly corrupt West."
Posted by: Perimetr | Jan 30 2024 15:01 utc | 12
"well, as ursula and borrell stated so often: "ukraine and the eu share the same western values!""
Posted by: Justpassinby | Jan 30 2024 15:29 utc | 14
Posted by: james | Jan 30 2024 17:11 utc | 29
Internet connection to .ru domains is disrupted. What is the reason?
Posted by: Nionde | Jan 30 2024 17:12 utc | 30
The Financial Times reports:
IMF raises Russia growth outlook as war boosts economyNew 2024 forecast of 2.6% rise doubles previous prediction and prompts questions over sanctions against Moscow
Russia’s economy will expand much more rapidly this year than previously expected, according to the IMF, as President Vladimir Putin’s military spending feeds through into wider growth.Gross domestic product is forecast to rise 2.6 per cent this year, more than double the pace the IMF predicted as recently as October, and slightly slower than the 3 per cent expansion estimated for 2023.
The Russian upgrade, by 1.5 percentage points, is the largest for any economy featured in an update to the fund’s World Economic Outlook, released on Tuesday.
The figures will raise fresh questions over the effectiveness of multiple rounds of western sanctions aimed at depressing the fiscal revenues harvested by the Kremlin to finance its war in Ukraine.
continues ==> https://www.ft.com/content/21a5be9c-afaa-495f-b7af-cf937093144d
Posted by: too scents | Jan 30 2024 17:14 utc | 31
Russian users complained about a large-scale failure in the Runet.
Popular sites, including Yandex, are not opening now. There are also problems with banking applications.
The pages of the marketplaces are not loaded either. And there are also complaints about problems with the operation of the mobile Internet in Russia.
Is something not working for you?❗Users report that they cannot receive banking services via the Internet
The mobile applications of Sberbank, Alfa-Bank and other large banks have stopped working, and the websites of banks are also not working.
Subscribe to ReadovkaMobile operators hastened to disown the fall of the Runet
Beeline and Megafon stated that their networks are working stably, and the problem is beyond the responsibility of the operators
Posted by: Nionde | Jan 30 2024 17:23 utc | 32
Nionde@32.... probable NATO test, before War games kick off ....just in case.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 30 2024 17:30 utc | 33
"Ukraine’s Democracy in Darkness - (archived) - The New Yorker
With elections postponed and no end to the war with Russia in sight, Volodymyr Zelensky and his political allies are becoming like the officials they once promised to root out: entrenched."
That was obvious a long time ago, well before the February, 2022. Zelenskii and his coterie don't care, as long as they still have the whip hand. If they only way they can maintain power is by naked force and terror, then that is what they will do.
So what does anyone propose to do about it?
Posted by: Feral Finster | Jan 30 2024 17:30 utc | 34
If the SBU is the modern Gestapo, then Budanov is the modern Himmler. Hitler put Himmler in command just before his defeat, but the legions under the command of a secret police chief with little military experience were beaten to a pulp by the Soviet army. Yes, Ukraine is indeed suffering the same fate as the Third Reich.
Posted by: CIROC | Jan 30 2024 17:31 utc | 35
"I wonder what the average Ukie infantryman thinks of all this, sitting in his cold wet trench being shelled and chased by deadly drones, short of ammo and watching his mates get killed and wounded whilst his officers are far to the rear? End game type scenario unfolding...
Posted by: marcjf | Jan 30 2024 14:36 utc | 5"
Nobody in Kiev, much less in Brussels or Washington cares what that infantryman thinks, as long as he stays in the trench.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Jan 30 2024 17:31 utc | 36
Russian users complained about a large-scale failure in the Runet.
Posted by: Nionde | Jan 30 2024 17:23 utc | 32
---
.ru nameservice is administered by RIPE.
Their status page is here ==> https://status.ripe.net/
Posted by: too scents | Jan 30 2024 17:36 utc | 37
2 years into this war and they are looking like meth heads. Skin looks all wrong, overweight and look hung over. War is hell I guess especially a war where you are getting you ass wooped.
Posted by: Comandante | Jan 30 2024 14:44 utc | 7
Interesting that Z still looks the dapper young slightly undersized stallion fresh from the gym.
Posted by: MAKK | Jan 30 2024 17:37 utc | 38
"Budanov has been in special forces intelligence from the very beginning of his career. He has never commanded anything larger than a group. Not a platoon, not a company, not a battalion, not a brigade, not a division and not a corp. How can someone who has zero experience in leading actual force formations supposed to be the commander of all Ukrainian forces including the army, air-force and navy?
It is impossible."
Since no real decisions are made in Ukraine, of course it is possible. How hard can it be to take Pentagon orders and translate them into passable Ukrainian, and show up when western leaders come to the train station so they can run the airraid siren and everyone looks all Stirring And Resolute for the photo op?
A chimp could do it.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Jan 30 2024 17:37 utc | 39
Posted by: Milites | Jan 30 2024 16:54 utc | 24
Dead officers, or at least dead generals, are good for morale, or so it is said. The western MSM was full of stories early in the war (or SMO if you prefer) about high ranking Russian senior officer losses. That may or may not prove to be a mistake, but at least it was leading from the front. Nato doctrine seems to be about preserving officers and expending ORs. Hard to say which is the better system, but I know which one I prefer. I think it was Ike who said the hardest job in the army was that of a 2nd Lt leading a platoon in attack. He may well have been right. But current "Gameboy" doctrine seems to be the in thing in NATO these days. And I think the guys in the trenches are not too impressed. IMO the lack of a respected Officer cadre runs a greater and more severe risk of collapse when the PBI have had enough. And it looks to me like that moment is approaching.
Posted by: marcjf | Jan 30 2024 17:40 utc | 40
Russia has the clear strategie to keep their lines, if possible, make some gains, but avoid costly ouvertures. They simply wait for the self destruction of the west. In US, UK and especially EU, the warmongers,fourth Reich freaks and other idiots and cronys are freaking out cause all their hopes for a great victory are vanishing.
Second, the WEF- influenced EU are fighting their own people with "Transformation", what leads to unrests in the whole EU. The elites in the EU are fighting desperate wars, because the outcome of the war against Russia was unexpected and unforeseen.
They are in real panic mode.
It would be nice for the people of US, UK and EU, if Russia finished up this Ukro mess. That would be a big help to overcome those crazy satanists in western states.
Unfortunately, Russia seems to have other intentions.
Posted by: ableman | Jan 30 2024 17:40 utc | 41
Russian users complained
Nionde | Jan 30 2024 17:23 utc | 32
Where are they?
Posted by: rk | Jan 30 2024 18:02 utc | 43
The problem of NAZO and the EU lapdog complex is that continuing to finance their proxy-war on the backs of regular European people will continue to create more political opposition.
A slight look at only 6 European nations (Slovenia, Hungary, Poland, Holland, France and Germany) may illustrate events and challenges that will continue to come to the surface:
Hungary:
and Orban will take the most direct bludgeoning from Brussels, but also become the most antagonistic and in political ways as well. EU is now threatening direct financial destruction of Hungary along with a further disdain of various other choices made in Budapest. Brussels seems to ignore the fact that just like Medvedev appears a more hardline figure than Putin, so there are other political movements in Hungary with more confrontational stances than Orban.
Poland:
is simultaneously very Russophobic/stuck in history and EU-skeptic. At some point one of those will decrease in intensity. I think it is very likely that EU-tyranny will continue to annoy and breed resentment, but what more evolution of their Russophobia is possible besides outright war? That is hard to see and I still think the people of Poland will choose EU-skepticism to a 1920 adventure. For sure, there is also an element of "wait and see" with regards to Galizia even if not spoken about a lot.
Slovenia:
is sailing up as an interesting example of how even a relatively "minor" of the EU pawns can create substantial amounts of headache for Brussels. Their socialistoid government seems quite solid with regards to no more arms to Ukraine, something the EU will have to "deal with" or ridsk further erosion of collective support for Project Ukraine.
France:
will continue to balance "it's own way" along with having to shill for Eurocrats at the cost of it's people. Macron has shown himself to be in such a disdain of its own electorate that it is merely the collective fearmongering of those stuch in the 80's "left/right" worldview that is securing his existence. The decolonization of French Africa is just starting to hurt France in various ways and bound to continue. There seems to be no coming back to how things were before. Economically, France is also bound to suffer more as this manifests itself.
Holland:
Much remains to see how the election of Wilders in a position of increased influence will shape the Dutch sentiment, but ignoring his electorate will only make things worse at next crossroads. In many ways, Holland is also the "ground zero" for the modern Western European peasant rebellion that now extends from the Iris Sea to Eastern Polish border. The ecotyrants in Europe is stil a mighty coalition of bureacrats, power-hungry politicians and "green" corporate power. This, as Mussolini would have uttered is -Fascism we can believe in-.
Germany:
(!!) seems the main political battlefield at present. A total US subservience and the humiliating destruction of North Stream and reliable energy by US operatives, is a course that will siumply continue to grow the AfD. The EU will continue to demonize AfD as "nazis", "xenophobes" and "Putinistas", but behind their growth lies a myriad of reasons that all have the common basis in a horrid vassalization of the country to Brussels or DC (master varying by the day). Wwith a government run by an utterly neutered Chancellor and a foreign minister whoose brightest CV-credential is a bronze medal in the German trampoline championship, todays German government most exemplifies how EU is a complete clown world.
This is 6 nations in Europe without even looking at the silent uproar in most of the others. I am sure many of us could break down various ways of utter dysfunction and hopium addiction everywhere from Kirkenes to Palermo, From the Azores to Iasi.
At last, even the entire Europe cannot match the ONLY elephant in USA and the electional freak of this year. I am not convinced Trump will have the ability or absolute willingness to decouple from Project Ukraine, but Taiwan, Yemen, Gaza, Guinea/Venezuela, Iraq, Syria, BRICS and domestic chaos will make it impossible for anyone to continue as usual. The hegemon is fracturing at all sides and the only way to not have concerns is by sticking to the mainstream media.
At the end we have a 2024 that is full of uncertainty, tension, dread and doom in a way I cannot recall in my 50 years. I follow MoA and ZH for major news and the common denominator must be that any guesswork is more accurate than somber predictions.
However, anyone who thinks this year will leave EU&NAZO in a better position than last would be severely challenged to explain so without pontification and a Vitamin H that is neither Haldol nor heroin.
Posted by: Et Norden | Jan 30 2024 18:06 utc | 44
Posted by: Nionde | Jan 30 2024 17:23 utc | 32
rt.com is active weird too. First no graphics, now its look weird.
PS: I get my news from rt.com and from this site.
Posted by: calgary guy | Jan 30 2024 18:10 utc | 45
An extended version of Thread totals script.
I added a total word count of all the comments from the same poster on the displayed page.
Now you have: name(post count - words count), as was the original request.
https://hastebin.com/share/ewehacawab.javascript
Posted by: aletsan | Jan 30 2024 18:12 utc | 46
He is handsome and looks good on camera.Budanov ?!? First among zombies maybe.
LOL
Posted by: Norwegian | Jan 30 2024 18:13 utc | 47
Now it's on the news:
"A technical problem occurred affecting the .RU zone, which is related to the DNSSEC global infrastructure" (tass.com/politics/1739397)
Posted by: rk | Jan 30 2024 18:14 utc | 48
A chimp could do it.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Jan 30 2024 17:37 utc | 39
No chimp would do that.
Posted by: MorePain4Cakes | Jan 30 2024 18:14 utc | 49
Et Norden | Jan 30 2024 18:06 utc | 44
"EU is now threatening direct financial destruction of Hungary along with a further disdain of various other choices made in Budapest."
Once the Russians finally get moving and complete the subjugation of the Borderland, they'll shake hands at the Hungarian border and with Serbia complete the land bridge. Then Hungary will be beyond any punishment from the EU.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Jan 30 2024 18:16 utc | 50
How is this "defensive strategy" going to work that is suddenly all the rage with Selensky and his NATO backers?
Russian style, it might bring a real advantage - extensive mine fields, helicopter and fighter plane support, unlimited artillery ammo: Let them walk into the kill zone and take them out.
Ukraine style, one wonders what story those destroyed buildings tell that are all that's left when Selensky's "defensive strategy" didn't work out. Sure, he can hide soldiers in abandoned houses. They might build fortifications, tunnels, protective structures. Unfortunately, without tons of artillery ammo, without air support, without the mine fields, all that Selensky's soldiers can do is pray they'll survive tomorrow: Russia just stays at arms length, and bombs the living hell out of the area. Today. Tomorrow. Next week. Next month. Bombs. Artillery shells. Sniper shots. Helicopter. Flame thrower systems and cluster ammo.
Sure, the fortifications will save the lives of some of the Ukrainian defenders. Today. Maybe tomorrow, too. Until one day they run out of luck.
Exactly what do Selensky and NATO hope to achieve by placing Ukrainian soldiers in front of Russian artillery, waiting to day? Ukraine wastes lives, Russia a few shots of ammo, of which it has plenty. Enough to continue until Selensky runs out of soldiers.
Why?
Posted by: Marvin | Jan 30 2024 18:19 utc | 51
ableman @ 41
They simply wait for the self destruction of the west.
It doesn't work that way, the worse things get in the west the worse things will be for Russia, China, India, and the RoW. The logic is like the USSR waiting for the Great Depression to finish of their enemies and capitalism.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 30 2024 18:28 utc | 52
Re fixed line defense ect that is the current Ukraine Nato illusion.
At the start of the SMO, they were hard to break through, but war tech has greatly changed in that short time. Small drone artillery has progressed rapidly. A lot of video in the last months of Russian drones flying into the opening of concrete fortifications, destroying all inside.
Russia is now massively ramping up both drone tech and production. Even a guided artillery shell cannot be directed through the opening of a fortification.
The logical future is the replacement of a large portion of artillery with drones. These small drones, if/when they become as common as artillery shells, completely changes the face of this style of war.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 30 2024 18:31 utc | 53
Posted by: Feral Finster | Jan 30 2024 17:37 utc | 39
There is always somebody in the back, who is rich and wants to give something back. Not the money...
https://youtu.be/D4tvZJGNIhM?feature=shared
Posted by: 600w | Jan 30 2024 18:32 utc | 54
Poland:
is simultaneously very Russophobic/stuck in history and EU-skeptic. At some point one of those will decrease in intensity. I
Posted by: Et Norden | Jan 30 2024 18:06 utc | 44
Poland is the "Ukraine" that already is a EU member.
Poland's split is the result of acting as the US 5th column inside of the EU.
Remember the freshly re-instantiated Poland immeediately went into little empire mode
and tried to expand to east and south.
They'll try again when Ukraine collapses.
EU should have taken in Turkey in place of Poland.
Posted by: MAKK | Jan 30 2024 18:38 utc | 55
Not intending to go OT with this but in my view democracy, if it exists at all has been eroded in the west to the point we might actually be on par with Ukraine.Posted by: simon crow | Jan 30 2024 15:46 utc | 16
In both anglo "democracies" of the antipodes, 100% of the govt/health authorities/media were pushing:
* Denial of medical care to refusniks
* House arrest for refusniks
* Taking children off refusniks
* Concentration camps for refusniks
About 40% of the public was enthusiastically on board with all of these ideas
In the big country, camps were actually built and used, Abos were rounded up by the army and forced to undergo injections. In the little country, people with private insurance were even denied medical care in private hospitals. In both countries microwave area denial weapons were used against protestors. In both countries, secret police surveilled and used various means of dirty tricks to destroy dissidents. My family has survived cancellation, unemployment, and one of us (just barely) survived 3 years denial of medical care for a heart condition. Ain't democracy grand?
Posted by: Drifter | Jan 30 2024 18:43 utc | 56
Exactly what do Selensky and NATO hope to achieve by placing Ukrainian soldiers in front of Russian artillery, waiting to day? Ukraine wastes lives, Russia a few shots of ammo, of which it has plenty. Enough to continue until Selensky runs out of soldiers.
Posted by: Marvin | Jan 30 2024 18:19 utc | 51
I think no one really really knows but one version can be that nato simply used the ukrozombies in an attempt to create problems for Russia, combined with sanctions. No one cares about ukros, don't look for logic in their actions. The question goes back to Maidan. What did they expect to happen if they try to kill all Russian speaking population and try to join nato?
On the other hand, with depopulation and complete deindustrialization of Ukr, the costs to maintain the undead state will quickly drop, and EU will cover most of it anyway, not US. Some peasants will be kept for agriculture, free food for EU and free electricity from all those npps without users. When Zeli will run out of regular soldiers, "mercenaries" will replace them in relatively small, mobile groups. kill some civilians, shoot at an npp or airport, blow up a pipe, then run. We know the macarons are already there. When smo ends, another thing will have to start to solve the outsourced terrorist and land control problem, which the smo doesn't solve.
Posted by: rk | Jan 30 2024 18:51 utc | 57
This sentence dissuaded me from wasting my time reading the rest of rubbish that writer penned: "... Russia, whose dispositions are shallow, forward, ill prepared, or logistically unsupported or whose troops are unmotivated and unwilling to defend their positions. That was true of Russian forces in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson in 2022." Arrant nonsense!
Russia aim at the beginning of the SMO was to bring the Ukrainian leadership to their sense without inflicting much destruction on the country. But when it became clear to Russia that Ukrainian leadership has no say in the whole operation and that the sole aim of NATO, the instigator and supporter of the whole thing on the side of Ukraine, was to use Ukraine to destroy the Russia Federation, the Russian upgraded their aim accordingly. There was no time that the Russian side was ill-prepared or unmotivated and unwilling to defend their position
It's strange that after reading this drivel b, believes that "Stephen Biddle, is a professor who (has) written on strategy and military power from a realist standpoint."
Stephen Biddle must be one of those so-called experts who have led the whole collective West into military quagmires.
Posted by: Steve | Jan 30 2024 18:51 utc | 58
V@4
"Budanov is handsome???"
In the land of the dead and the cripple, everyone alive, with a full set of limbs is handsome.
Posted by: AJ | Jan 30 2024 18:52 utc | 59
Poland:
is simultaneously very Russophobic/stuck in history and EU-skeptic. At some point one of those will decrease in intensity. I
Posted by: Et Norden | Jan 30 2024 18:06 utc | 44
Poland is the "Ukraine" that already is a EU member.
Poland's split is the result of acting as the US 5th column inside of the EU.
Remember the freshly re-instantiated Poland immeediately went into little empire mode
and tried to expand to east and south.
They'll try again when Ukraine collapses.
EU should have taken in Turkey in place of Poland.
Posted by: MAKK | Jan 30 2024 18:38 utc | 55
All the Polish I know are paranoid. And they have good reason to be.
Poland has been the battlefield of Eastern Europe for centuries torn between Austria/Hungary , Russia, Prussia, France, Germany the list goes on . How many times has Poland been partitioned? I can think of five times off the top of my head and I'm no expert in Polish history [that's for sure, editor].
They have reason to suspect East and West.
Well one thing is for sure, the AFU in & around Adeevka are in big trouble.
If the "Bakhmut is a failed meat grinder for the orcs", vintage trolls are cropping up.
A friendly reminder, Ukraine can't preveil even if the current situation was an attritional stalemate.
Due to its 5/6x smaller population, 10x smaller economy, complete reliance on an ever two-faced NATOstan & a badly unfavorable casualty ratio.
Posted by: Urban Fox | Jan 30 2024 19:28 utc | 61
The consideration of the draft law on mobilization in the Rada on February 6 indicates that there is no money for it.The 6th is a date with a reserve in order to understand what decision will be made at the EU summit on the 1st, and how much money the Ukrainian budget can count on before the end of the 1st half of the year from Europe.
The situation looks stalemate. The government does not have an answer to the question of where to get funds if there is no help or it will be limited/extended over time.
At the same time, the issue of mobilization should be resolved yesterday, but it cannot be resolved, because it is not clear how many recruits the state has money for, and whether this reserve will allow demobilization.
It is obvious that if there is not enough money from the EU, then new mobilization will be limited and there will be no demobilization at all.
This will worsen relations between the central authorities and the army.
Against this background, due to the budget deficit, cuts in various social packages will begin, which will worsen the relationship between the authorities and society.
I think Bankova is now biting its elbows for abandoning the idea of elections in March. This would have been a pressure relief valve, but it was plugged so that it could wait for an explosion.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/21434
Posted by: Down South | Jan 30 2024 19:31 utc | 62
Our source from the OP said that all night on Bankova they were deciding how to close the case with the Commander-in-Chief, who refuses to comply with the decisions of headquarters and Zelensky.The main issue is the bill on mobilization, which Zaluzhny does not want to push through the Rada on his own, but considers this to be the business of the President in accordance with the Constitution.
Bankova considers this behavior a deliberate game by the Commander-in-Chief in order to maintain his rating and pin all the negativity on Zelensky.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/21421
The draft law on mobilization was rewritten, but the main penal functions were retained. If we take into account the fact that the law on digital databases has already been adopted, then the TCC will easily unite them and will massively seize property, and most importantly, bank accountsThe conscription age has been changed from 27 to 25 years. Restrictions will be imposed on draft dodgers through the courts - text of the bill
The TCC may go to court to impose the following restrictions on a person liable for military service: seizure of bank accounts and valuables in banks; restrictions on travel abroad of Ukraine; restriction of driving rights;
Conscript service is abolished and basic military training is introduced; A summons to the territorial center for recruitment and social support can be sent to a citizen through the electronic account of a conscript, a person liable for military service and a reservist,” the document says.
The day of delivery of the “electronic” summons is considered to be the day the TCC receives notification of the delivery of such a summons to the conscript’s electronic account.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/21435
Posted by: Down South | Jan 30 2024 19:35 utc | 63
"There is always somebody in the back, who is rich and wants to give something back. Not the money...
https://youtu.be/D4tvZJGNIhM?feature=shared
Posted by: 600w | Jan 30 2024 18:32 utc | 54"
we've been hearing that one for over a year now as well, but it never happens. Same as all the other wishful thinking that the West will give up on Ukraine.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Jan 30 2024 19:42 utc | 64
All the Polish I know are paranoid. And they have good reason to be.
Poland has been the battlefield of Eastern Europe for centuries torn between Austria/Hungary , Russia, Prussia, France, Germany the list goes on . How many times has Poland been partitioned? I can think of five times off the top of my head and I'm no expert in Polish history [that's for sure, editor].
They have reason to suspect East and West.
Posted by: canuck | Jan 30 2024 18:54 utc | 60
Poland has tried screwing them all and been screwed in return. Perhaps not all but certainly illusions of grandeur.
They took a lot of Kievan Rus ant one point and lost that as the Rus reformed under Moscow.
WWII, they refused to let the Soviets through to defend czlovacia, instead entering and agreement with Germany to partition the place. Germany then entered an agreement with the Soviets to partition Poland. What goes around comes round.
Now we see the Brits using Poland to try and separate old Europe from Russia. Poles living in their hate filled world seem to get it wrong more often than not.
Their glory days are long gone. Now they are just a tool to be used by the anglo empire, same as Ukraine. They should wake up, drop the hate and become a neutral country.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 30 2024 19:46 utc | 65
Posted by: canuck | Jan 30 2024 18:54 utc | 60
most of times self provoked... drunken with culture and tech from the west and with lets say the spirit from the east
They had always both but somehow managed to f up really hard more than 5 times as you say
Posted by: Macpott | Jan 30 2024 19:49 utc | 66
,,,The tragedy of Polish History is that they never made friends with a neighbor. They were surrounded by Germany, Russia, Austria-Hungary, and some by Sweden . A Mutual Treaty with co-operation with one of these would have been of great benefit . Instead they chose treaties with England, France, and the USA. These were of no benefit but destructive . It is still so today. They have not learned .
Posted by: leocz | Jan 30 2024 20:01 utc | 67
Posted by: Bingo Tastic | Jan 30 2024 16:22 utc | 21
#################
Russia has no interest in an armistice while it easily grinds Ukraine into history and bleeds NATO dry.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 30 2024 20:07 utc | 68
Posted by: Et Norden | Jan 30 2024 18:06 utc | 44
“Slovenia:
is sailing up as an interesting example of how even a relatively "minor" of the EU pawns can create substantial amounts of headache for Brussels. Their socialistoid government seems quite solid with regards to no more arms to Ukraine”
Stick to the Haldol or Heroin, mate.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Jan 30 2024 20:16 utc | 69
Current British/anglo strategy against the continent is little changed since MacKinder times. Divide, conquer, control. This war in Ukraine, for the Brits is very much about separating old Europe from the heartland.
Brit security agreements - Poland the main Brit ally/puppet, but brit security military agreements since just before SMO streth from Poland to the black sea effectively cutting all land based lines of communication between Russia and old Europe - particularly in gas/oil rail ect. The only lines they haven't been able to cut of are through Turkey and back up into Europe - hence the Russia Turkey gas hub agreement.
The new government coming to power in Slovakia may have put a hole in that blockade line. I believe the brits entered an agreement with the prior Slovak government when they realized Ukraine was going to lose. Initial agreements were just Poland and Ukraine which effectively cut land links between the heartland and Europe, so then a new set of agreements set the blockade line further back.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 30 2024 20:20 utc | 70
This war is just beginning. Military production & logistics is ramping up. At least in Russia/Iran. USA arming Ukraine looked good on paper but reality is looking ugly for Western perverts.
In 5 years USA will be spiritually crushed. Israel will be gone. Europe will be frenemy with Russia again. Ukraine Nazi areas will re-learn Holodomor.
Posted by: Deplorable Dave | Jan 30 2024 20:21 utc | 71
It doesn't work that way, the worse things get in the west the worse things will be for Russia, China, India, and the RoW. The logic is like the USSR waiting for the Great Depression to finish of their enemies and capitalism.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 30 2024 18:28 utc | 52
################
That is a very Western-centric view of the world.
As Russia and Iran have demonstrated, life without integration with the West is doable, and in many cases, morally and spiritually superior.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 30 2024 20:23 utc | 72
The Western oligarchs are still dealing with the stages of grief that they wont get to keep all that lovely productive dark soil and the natural gas and the rest of the plethora of natural resources that Ukraine has, as well as the industrial heartland. They will just get the shitty west, fully of delusional nationalist psychos who will as easily kill them as they will Russians, and Poles, and Jews. And Russia will become that much stronger with the addition of the best parts of Ukraine plus all of the Black Sea coastline. That is the reality that will be the final outcome, Putin seems to have learnt that the West can never be trusted and that Ukraine must be swallowed up out of existence for good.
Another "L" for the West, to be followed by the exit of US troops from Syria and Iraq and possibly other parts of the Middle East. This decade will prove to be one big "L" for the West.
@Posted by: Deplorable Dave | Jan 30 2024 20:21 utc | 71
The Holodomor never happened, stop pushing that Nazi and Cold War propaganda myth. There was a regional drought exacerbated by a class war, not just in Ukraine, as O'Grada the leading scholar on such things acknowledges. The worst population losses were actually outside Ukraine. And Russia is not Israel, there will be no genocide - more an adult male (and some female) suicide by Russia until the Ukrainians stop fighting for the Western oligarchs. Less civilians have been killed in Ukraine in 2 years than in Gaza in a few months.
@68 another way to look at it is that America and Europe, spending approximately 0.25% of their total GDP on arming and subsidizing Ukraine over the past 2 years, have stalemated Russia and limited it to spending half a year grinding out a few kms of progress against a suburb of Donetsk City two years into this war. While western pro-Z glue sniffers go on about victory right around the corner and get off on dead Ukrainians (supposedly just another kind of Russian according to Putin and the great majority of Russians)
Posted by: 5D Active Defense | Jan 30 2024 20:44 utc | 75
@ leocz | Jan 30 2024 20:01 utc | 67
that sounds like a very accurate statement.. thanks..
Posted by: james | Jan 30 2024 20:54 utc | 76
What a goddam joke. The Ukraine was, is and always will be an Augean stables. Imagine the ideological energy required to hold up a loose confederation of mafia fiefdoms as the beacon of democracy? Even were the whole place to sink beneath the waves tomorrow it would take centuries to wash away the filth.
@b:
In many ways 'time of monsters' gives our epoch a dignity it does not remotely deserve. I prefer to invert Arendt's remark: when I look at Biden, Blinken, Sunak, etc etc, I don't think of the banality of evil, I think of the evil of banality. It's a time of grubby, corrupt, petty, dumbfuck, banality. History is full of monstrous colossi; none of our shambling fools hold a candle even to the guy holding the candle...
Posted by: Patroklos | Jan 30 2024 20:55 utc | 77
The Western oligarchs are still dealing with the stages of grief that they wont get to keep all that lovely productive dark soil and the natural gas and the rest of the plethora of natural resources that Ukraine has, as well as the industrial heartland.
Putin seems to have learnt that the West can never be trusted and that Ukraine must be swallowed up out of existence for good.
Posted by: Roger | Jan 30 2024 20:32 utc | 73
Putin first plucked the cherry off the cake when the Nuland west was popping the champagne corks. (Crimea - hence the much vaunted southern offensive)
An interview with Lavrov shortly after the SMO kicked off. I forget all the exact words, only the gist. Prior to the launch of the SMO when US had rejected mutual security agreements, Putin had asked both Lavrov and Shoigu to put plans and prospects to him. When they did that he gave Lavrov, I think, another two weeks.
In the interview, Lavrov said he was determined to pursue all possibilities until each was exhausted as he full understood the cost and destruction of war.
Putin has been preparing for this showdown since 2002 but it has been very much a matter of preparing for the worst and working/hoping for the best, that those preparations would not be required.
Russia is in a position that in areas it can give the benefit of the doubt and to what many see as leaving things too late because there is a great depth and strength to Russia. That is also something that has been developed/reinvigorated alongside the development of next gen strategic weapons systems.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 30 2024 21:05 utc | 78
we've been hearing that one for over a year now as well, but it never happens. Same as all the other wishful thinking that the West will give up on Ukraine.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Jan 30 2024 19:42 utc | 64
Either you misunderstood my comment or I don't understand yours.
I just wanted to confirm your thesis that "Budanov is a puppet". And it is also known who is pulling the strings.
Of course the 'West' won't give up anything if it doesn't have to.
The law of the jungle is based on assertiveness.
The 'West' is trying to limit the damage for itself (PR) and not tie its own fate to that of Ukraine (it was never planned).
The media are distancing themselves.
The Ukrainians are "perhaps" losing, the 'West' has only supplied weapons. The Ukrainians are incapable and have only themselves to blame.
They might blow up their nuclear power plants, or the north stream blow up crew is looking for work...
The problem for the europeans is that the US can live with that, like they can live with the remains of north stream.
Back to Budanow - if you look back at 1933-45 you cannot say, that rookies cannot run a repression system.
It just depends on your individual point of view what is really in the need of people.
Posted by: 600w | Jan 30 2024 21:13 utc | 79
Posted by: Et Norden | Jan 30 2024 18:06 utc | 44
“Slovenia:......"
I believe 'Et Norden' meant this description to refer to Slovakia. Slovenia remains a pathetically compliant lackey of the EU and NATO.
Posted by: Andrew Celestina | Jan 30 2024 21:15 utc | 80
Not impressed by Biddle's article.
At the start of Russia's SMO, Russia's goal was never conquest. It was a warning, meant to bring Ukraine back to the bargaining table, which it did. You don't use 40,000 troops to conquer a nation of 40 million people and a 600,000 man NATO army.
Poorly motivated? I don't think so. Their expeditionary force still managed to permanently disable Ukraine's air force and seize a sizeable chunk of Ukraine, including urban centers, in spite of a prodigious propaganda campaign that peddled fear and punished collaborators.
When it became clear that Ukraine and NATO negotiated in bad faith, Russia pulled back, making the Ukrainians pay a heavy price, while it built up its defences, enlarged its army and conducted referendums making most of the Donbas Russia.
Russia went on to defeat 2 more NATO armies in active defence and reclaim some of the territory they surrendered and Bahkmut Russian defence lines were built by the man who wrote the book the military academy uses. The fall, winter, spring, summer offensive never had a chance.
A thousand motivated volunteers a day join the Russian Army a day.
There were over a million Ukrainians living in Russia at the start of the conflict. Now there are 7 million. Population estimates for Ukraine are roughly 20 million and they are not coming back.
Biddle is right about zero democracy, rumblings of a palace coup and zero chance of Ukraine/NATO ever recovering any part of the former Ukraine. Sane leadership would have figured that out in 2022. instead they told themselves fairy tales and stupidly went on wasting lives and treasure.
Posted by: Carol Davidek Waller | Jan 30 2024 21:26 utc | 81
Posted by: Marvin | Jan 30 2024 18:19 utc | 51
Yes. And retreating to new defensive lines can't answer in any case. They will not be as formidable as those in the present front line, which took years to prepare. The Ukrainians will still need to mount counter-attacks, which is where they lose troops to a great extent already. And defending any fixed line will necessitate bringing reserves and equipment close up, which will, as now, provide a target for Russian strikes.
In a reductio ad absurdum scenario that method of defence would entail the provision of new Ukrainian defensive lines, each weaker than the last, until the NATO border was reached. But only theoretically: the country is on the verge of collapse and defeat would follow well before.
Best bet for NATO is what was hoped for at the start of the SMO. A Russian "victory" of the sort most were predicting at that time, followed by an insurgency. "Ukraine will become Russia's Afghanistan" was the hope back then. The arms supplied to the Ukrainians before the SMO were suited to insurgency as they were not to the type of war Ukraine found itself ending up fighting. It was hoped that the sanctions war would collapse the Russian economy. A long drawn out and difficult insurgency, together with economic collapse, would have defeated the RF conclusively.
That was the hope at the start of the SMO. The Russians sidestepped it. Their economy had been sufficiently hardened to avoid collapse. They did not "take Kiev and declare victory", as we were expecting. Had they done that they'd have been chasing all over Ukraine afterward, dealing with fighters mixed in with the general population and well armed for insurgency work. Instead the Russians took a different course. They eschewed a quick but ultimately meaningless victory. After the operations at the start of the SMO they sat back in a limited and defined area, with superior weaponry and good logistics, and let the fighters come to them.
I think many here predicted at the time that this was a war NATO could never win. It was obviously never that. But had the Russians gone bull headed for a "victory" at the start, it was a war that would have been a running sore for them for a long time. As it is, it may not be a war they want to win that quickly even now. The Russian problem was always how to deal with remnant Ukraine. The longer this unequal contest continues the more ultra-nationalists are killed or move to Germany, and the easier the task of pacifying and neutralising remnant Ukraine becomes.
On the NATO side, it seems Washington also has an interest in the war not ending before the next Presidential election. Therefore, unless the country collapses from sheer exhaustion, which it could do at any time, it looks as if the unfortunate Ukrainians will be on the rack for a while yet.
Never a good idea to be pig in the middle when superpowers collide. As I suppose we Europeans will be finding out ourselves, when the Ukrainian war is done.
Posted by: English Outsider | Jan 30 2024 21:29 utc | 82
Posted by: Morongobill | Jan 30 2024 14:51 utc | 9
A friend of mine who remains a bachelor in a "destination" US city where he lives tells me that the number of Ukrainian women showing up on dating apps/sites is on the rise.
One of the major (I'd argue intended) consequences of this war is the depopulation of Ukraine such that the age demographic has skewed upwards in terms of who is actually still there. Young professionals have fled when they could (or are dying on the front lines) and there will be nobody left to defend or prove they own large swaths of fertile farmland and mineral rich plots. Just as Blackrock and Monsanto likely hoped would happen.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 30 2024 21:37 utc | 83
How not to love NATO?
RQ-4B Global Hawk callsign FORTE13 flying now closer than ever, I have seen on flight trackers, to Crimea in a Sevastopol direction, good 50 km distance. This is over the edge.
So here go Scalp/painted Taurus to the AD showdown over Crimea, or some bridge, ship, empty building.
I heard rumors, and so far leave it at that, of F-16 taking off in Romania and attacking somewhere along Kherson coast.
If true, and it becomes the practice and it doesn't make Russians a bit more angry, I do not what it will?
I have the impression that the "red line" narrative, might just change into - You crossed the red lines that we didn't create, yet.
The other issue is how do you deal with targeting NATO assets on the territories of the countries that Russia has nothing against, and is not interesting in damaging civilian assets.
We are not in war with you, but NATO?
Posted by: whirlX | Jan 30 2024 21:50 utc | 84
Gilbert Doctorow publishes a speech that was banned by the President of the "European Parliament." It is asppech inwhich he puts forward a very different idea of the Bundesrepublik from that of Wolfgang Streeck referred to in an earlier thread.
"A couple of weeks ago, I received an invitation from MEP Tatjana Zdanoka (Latvia) to speak at an event in the European Parliament building which she had organized for 31 January under the title “Restoring the Names: Tragedy of the Holocaust in Latvia.” This event was, of course, timed to come in the period bracketing the Holocaust Remembrance Day that was observed worldwide this past weekend. However, it also had some distinct features. The special speaker would be Igors Glazunovs, a Latvian writer, prison-born survivor of the Holocaust, and the second panel would revolve around the screening of a film entitled ‘Restoring the names,’ with a performer in the film and the author of the text, both Latvians, taking charge. The third panel, in which I would be one of six speakers, was entitled “Fight against the resurgence of neo-fascism in the EU Member States.”
"The event was cancelled today by order of the President of the European Parliament in the context of charges just leveled against Zdanoka of being a Russian spy. I expect to learn more about these charges tomorrow, but ahead of the specifics I can say that anyone following Zdanoka’s long-time activities on behalf of her electorate in Riga and her open and brave criticism of Moscow’s policy failings till now with respect to the Russian-speaking population of Latvia would know at once the utter falsehood of such accusations....
"...My thesis in this speech is that the neo-Nazism rising in the Baltic States and Ukraine is enabled by the revisionist politics of the Federal Republic of Germany in the new millennium. Germany has freed itself from the self-imposed constraints of the 55 years following its defeat in WWII, constraints amounting to growing its industrial economy to become the world’s biggest exporter while keeping its mouth shut about international affairs and letting the French do the talking. Such was the essence of the tandem of Germany and France as the so-called locomotives of the new Europe..."
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/
Posted by: bevin | Jan 30 2024 21:52 utc | 85
@ Patroklos | Jan 30 2024 20:55 utc | 77
i think your switch and use of hannah arendts subtitle is quite accurate.. for these leaders it is the evil of banality..
Posted by: james | Jan 30 2024 21:58 utc | 86
Roger @73
Re "Holodomor. Just because there was famine in other regions of the Soviet Union, too, it does not mean that it did not happen in the Ukraine. Are you also denying the 1921 and 1946 famines?
Posted by: AJ | Jan 30 2024 22:02 utc | 87
Posted by: Nionde | Jan 30 2024 17:23 utc | 32
Sounds like a DNS loop.
Posted by: Passerby | Jan 30 2024 22:03 utc | 88
@ AJ | Jan 30 2024 22:02 utc | 87
"Holodomor" is a term invented by ukrainian nationalist around ~1980 I believe, a term which curiously did not exist for half a century since the event it supposedly describes. It specifically refers to disproved lies about intentional genocide of ukrainians and has been used to promote rusophobia and extreme nationalism.
If one wishes to refer to a famine, call it a famine.
Posted by: boneless | Jan 30 2024 22:18 utc | 89
boneless | Jan 30 2024 22:18 utc | 89 "Holodomor" is a term invented by ukrainian nationalist around ~1980 I believe,"
US 1964.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 30 2024 22:23 utc | 90
by: English Outsider | Jan 30 2024 21:29 utc | 82
Very well put. Nice summary with the only parole I think is missing. Putin and Co. have an expression that is coming from the literature and Czarist times - a Russian World. NATO invaded in Ukraine a Russian World. So Russia entered a Russian World to protect Russians living there.
NATO cares about nobody there except Crimea as for a main military dominance position.
They trampled all the tulips and roses in somebody's else garden. Hic Sunt Leones. Deal with it.
Ukraine is not very secretly used as a NATO's hammer, and it hurts a pride a lot, but many people have still the idea and perhaps a need, that it is a lot easier to de-Nazify, than to de-Russify.
My hope is that this WWII gene might be aroused again and perhaps Russia waits for this, in the mean time, eliminating en masse, military capacity. So, a coup in Kiev is the end of the USA in Ukraine and possibly the country itself.
Russia will draw NATO in under its own terms, if they use 90k troops to protect Ukrainian falling leftovers.
By de-puzzling Ukraine over the national minorities and adjunct historical territories, Putin offered it on the plate for Romania, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland.
As in - it is a lot cheaper for the West to take over those entities, mostly unharmed, than go for the war on Crimea, Azov Sea and such nonsense.
Thanks for the inspiration anyway.
Posted by: whirlX | Jan 30 2024 22:24 utc | 91
AJ | Jan 30 2024 22:02 utc | 87
Holodomor refers to much more than just a famine. Famine existed in parts of the Soviet Union but holodomor is fiction.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 30 2024 22:25 utc | 92
WhirlX 84: If they don't react to small things, it could also be because they have something bigger in mind anyway. First we have to wait and see what the retaliation against Iran will be, and Macron probably wants to fight until the last Frenchman in Ukraine. One must understand that, Macron represents the interests of Rothschild, Biden represents a few other Jewish Billionaires, that's just how they are, the Democracies of the West.
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Jan 30 2024 22:25 utc | 93
@ Peter AU1 | Jan 30 2024 22:23 utc | 90
Thanks for correction, I knew I was somewhere off.
Posted by: boneless | Jan 30 2024 22:27 utc | 94
boneless | Jan 30 2024 22:27 utc | 94
There is an entry on it in eilipedia which I ran onto when researching the soviet famine of 32/33.
The person who coined that therm was and American living in the US married to a Ukrainian woman, I would assume a Galician. He gave some presentations to congress or senate hearings, something of that nature, so the term then went into cold war US vocabulary and from there to the post cold war Ukraine.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 30 2024 22:32 utc | 95
Posted by: marcjf | Jan 30 2024 17:40 utc | 40
Current UK doctrine is what it’s always been, any soldier with command responsibility leads, period. It’s why their number make up a massively disproportionate number in the casualty rolls. Soviet command doctrine was an attempt to overcome some of the shortcomings of centralised command, if the regimental commander is in the advance guard he will have a better understanding of the situation and allocate resources quickly. The current Russian Army seems to be more cautious with their leadership resources, now that they are far less plentiful or replaceable.
I think the Russian loss of senior officers in the initial stages were less about leading from the front and more about an under-appreciation of the speed an accuracy of Ukrainian indirect fire when linked to tier one Western ISR. With modern optical sensors and the ever-present drones, identifying command elements has come a long way from arial counting, watching for non-verbal command signals or trying to invent linguistic sensors to scan for command inflections. Yet another reason why attacks are low-density, hi-intensity affairs and are set very limited objectives.
Posted by: Milites | Jan 30 2024 22:33 utc | 96
Holodomore is a very similar term in meaning to the holocaust. I have not yet found where the term Holocaust was coined, but its intent was to focus the western world on only the jews rather than all that were subject to genocide from Nazi Germany. The Roma or gypsies are always forgotten and for most western minds, the intended genocide of all communists and especially the ethnic Russians is simply non existent. Oh that was Stalin they proclaim.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 30 2024 22:41 utc | 97
Boneless @89, Peter AU1 @90 and 92
Correction of terminology noted. The famine(s) in the Ukraine were very real, but, as noted, were not unique to that place. I agree that its cause was agricultural malpractice and droughts combined with export of grains, and not genocidal intent.
Posted by: AJ | Jan 30 2024 22:42 utc | 98
by Oliver Krug | Jan 30 2024 22:25 utc | 93
Yes, well said. But there are so much bubbles where the other billionaires' businesses and people's interests intersect and act, so it counter-balances, to a certain extent, those few of "them" running the show. Not to mention their high level friction.
I doubt that a current time, with French farmers and all other farmers in EU running wild, is the sign of a stable society ready for war. Germany as well. Seems a bit boiling over there.
Iran will answer when China says it is ok to do it.
Biden and the West can lose Ukraine, Middle East, Taiwan and Israel in a one go and without firing the nuke from any side.
Banking based society is a casino society.
Posted by: whirlX | Jan 30 2024 22:42 utc | 99
Anybody wonder where Austin are?
So do the bulgarians: Bulgarian Defence minister Tagarev had a personal invitation from Austin to visit USA- "but was met with a humiliating low levels by ordinary officials"
https://obektivno.bg/tagarev-izlagal-parlamenta-zaminal-v-sasth-bez-pokana/
Posted by: Paul from Norway | Jan 30 2024 22:48 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Looks to me Russian will just wait out collapse and go from there.
https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-national-debt-more-doubled-115000627.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9kdWNrZHVja2dvLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAh_U-7l0XiSf5LYHdWWB6Fo38bMnTbezA1NphXmPLeQ414BxTKV9sqG6DgZ94uqXYye4PVXDvquAhdRR3ALY5Knp3PTRD0IpUxaLwkksmXhtuEiM6jz9mu4LR5Re1dPI1S9rRkrlfIqoyMgplx_1O-Cy99awxnDe3K7MlgZFaI1
“The Ukrainian national debt has more than doubled since the beginning of the war, exceeding 5.5 trillion hryvnias — Ministry of Finance”.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Jan 30 2024 13:43 utc | 1