20 km a day wtf are we in germany vs namibia before ww1?
I am sorry for those duds but now the russians seem to have gained steam – there are reasons why even the ICJ makes such judgements

Posted by: Macpott | Feb 1 2024 10:41 utc | 104

@Micron | Feb 1 2024 8:52 utc | 94
Where do I claim that Russia is somehow capable of advancing 20km per day? (Though that is what happened at the start of the SloMO when Russia advanced all the way to Kiev as well as major advances in eastern Ukraine.) Its Putin who said that Russia must expand the demilitarized zone. You must go and ask Putin if his forces are capable of achieving his desires.
But IMHO this statement of Putin adheres to the 2 year theory, that Russia can only fight a conflict after 2 years have passed. This is what happened in WW2. So for 2 years Russia has been sorting out the carpet / parquet generals and getting their house and MIC in order, so its only now that Russia can really fight. In addition, one or other of the big wigs in alternate media circles was saying, after a trip to Russia, that 2 whole Russia armies were idling in eastern Ukraine, as in not needed for manning the trenches. Such evidence, more especially what Putin said, indicates a change in Russian strategy, maybe its going to be active defence going on steroids, maybe its going to be big arrow advances with all the casualties that entails (which is what happened at the start of the SMO).

Posted by: gT | Feb 1 2024 10:57 utc | 106

To NAFO Micron.
…Just for example, it’s been two weeks the Russian forces are battling the Ukrainians to take two streets in south Avdiivka (Sobornaya and Sportivnaya). At this rate I’m more confident than ever in my prediction that Avdiivka will still be in ukrainian hands by end of March….
Well, I m more confident than ever in my prediction that Avdiivka will follow Marinupol, Soledar and Bachmut.
Never heard about Rakka and Mosul, I presume?
Btw. This is about Marinupol from Germany – UA ZeRada reports
Journalists from the German TV channel ZDF went to Mariupol and recorded a story from there.
Unusual narratives for Germany:
✅A lot of restoration work is being carried out: streets, schools, residential buildings and entire neighborhoods are being restored. And it happens very quickly;
✅“Before the Russian occupation, it was forbidden to speak Russian in the theater, and therefore many people are glad that Russia occupied the city,” the expert comments.
While I am trolled by Czech mainstream media about cholera in Marinupol, OMG evene ukies….

Posted by: Josef Schweik | Feb 1 2024 11:22 utc | 108

So the fact that Russia/Putin officially declared the plane was shutdown by a patriot system… it means Russia indeed did not take care of them as they ‘claimed’ they are targeting and destroying NATO equipment. This war is full of lies on both sides. Start getting bored …

Posted by: Innuendo | Feb 1 2024 12:36 utc | 110

So the fact that Russia/Putin officially declared the plane was shutdown by a patriot system… it means Russia indeed did not take care of them as they ‘claimed’ they are targeting and destroying NATO equipment. This war is full of lies on both sides. Start getting bored …
Posted by: Innuendo | Feb 1 2024 12:36 utc | 110
Where did the MOD claim to have destroyed all patriot batteries? If you are bored go look for a hobby.

Posted by: Knullpi | Feb 1 2024 12:47 utc | 112

To add to the misery, Ukraine just took out another Russian ship with sea drones. HIMARS, the Patriot missile ssytem, and sea drones are wreaking havoc on the Russian military.

Posted by: bored | Feb 1 2024 12:55 utc | 114

It seems that the drone problem is indeed affecting both sides. Some RU channels provide a very detailed chart on the drone usage and it looks like the number is almost equal between sides. So neither side has any supremacy and sadly no potential solution.
Ukr advantage is that manpower is expandable which means RU would need a significant larger advantage in drone manufacturing which I am not sure it’s possible at this stage.

Posted by: JamesBond | Feb 1 2024 13:07 utc | 116

@117,
Sure, they have superiority in fighters/bombers/helicopters, but I was saying supremacy in drone warfare which is acknowledged by both sides that is becoming a problem to any side that wants to advance. Drones are cheap, planes are not.
I would have expected that Russia would have been a bit more prepared for this kind of war considering that they used a similar tactic during the summer with drones. Not sure where the bottleneck is (perhaps someone with better knowledge would know).
Perhaps work a bit better with other sides (Iran, NK, China) to create some additional EW capabilities?

Posted by: JamesBond | Feb 1 2024 13:18 utc | 118

Russia’s Iron Fist Total War Yields Results
Big frontline report of January 2024 from journalist Marat Khairullin
The most important thing that happened at the front this week is that Russian troops continue to systematically increase pressure on the entire line of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. To understand what is happening, let’s once again touch upon the tactics of dill defense.
It is arranged quite simply – a very deep (in some areas more than 10 kilometers) line of protective structures. In the first line, as a rule, there are mobilized suicide bombers from the territorial defense. This is the meat shield of dill. It is on them that our main blow falls.
The Ukrops use them as a buffer that slows down our offensive actions and gives time to pull in more prepared units from the depth of the defense, which counterattack in an attempt to push our troops back. Quite often, they succeed. As, for example, we saw in the autumn in Sinkovka, which was almost completely cleared of the enemy.
However, there aren’t many of these parts. Previously, the Ukies were able to work in active defense by transferring these reserves from one sector to another, where ours were active.
Today, the problem of the ukrops is that our troops have switched to the tactics of total pressure in more and more directions, and the enemy simply fails to quickly transfer these already battered units from one sector to another.
And, in addition, the consumption of people in the meat shield has reached a critical mass – the Ukies do not have time to bring new suicide bombers to the first line in sufficient numbers.
The Telegram channel “Intercept Z” maintains regular statistics on the losses of dill on the battlefield according to our Ministry of Defense.
On average, it turns out to be about 20 thousand per month – these are officially confirmed losses by means of objective control. However, this is only part of the iceberg. This does not include the killed enemies in the near rear, the huge flow of wounded, which cannot be counted at all.
Military medicine of the enemy army in general, it can be said that it works only for the chosen ones – meat from the territorial defense is served on a residual basis.
If in the first year the NATO masters were still supplying the military doctors of their slaves, now they have simply forgotten about it. What for? Dill is already doomed. Instead, NATO has set up several hospitals of its own that cater exclusively to their superior race.
In addition, now the Ukrop army is covered by another epidemic of frostbite. I have already written that several serious infectious diseases are raging on the enemy’s front line at once – from dysentery and influenza to unknown infections. Which are not yet diagnosable remotely at all.
The Ukrop commanders, of course, do not care at all what the soldiers are sick with, whose task is simply to successfully wrap themselves on the tracks of Russian tanks and thus slow them down.
In general, all these factors allow us to talk about the level of real losses of dill (including sanitary) of about 40-50 thousand per month. It is clear why their military registration and enlistment offices are so raging – there are not enough people for the slaughter.
It is clear that such inhuman tactics of war are finite – sooner or later the people will run out.
By the way, this is why I regularly write that Zelensky must be severely and justly punished for introducing such tactics of war – this is who you have to be to treat your people like this – to arrange a real genocide for them. The Khmer Rouge and Zelensky are phenomena of the same order.
But the most terrible thing for them is that this inhuman tactic no longer works – it worked until our troops were as active as they are now.
For comparison: at the end of the summer, in a more or less constant active phase, we had only two directions – Kupianske and Marinka. All other activities of our troops resembled rather bursts – the dill had enough time to cope with them.
And now we are constantly pressing thirty plus directions (conducting assault operations). And this is with an overwhelming advantage in firepower and against the backdrop of a falling supply of dill by Western masters.
And the enemies don’t seem to have a backup plan. Zaluzhnyi’s line is just another PR campaign.
We will take our time to gnaw through it as we do the one that exists.
Here it is necessary to pay attention to the following point: it is obvious that our command is not in a hurry, preferring the tactics of small captures.
Why?
To dispose of the dill on the existing borders as much as possible, so that they do not have time to retreat and lock themselves in the fortress cities. The more we destroy the enemy now, the easier it will be to make further advances.

Posted by: marat post | Feb 1 2024 13:33 utc | 120

https://twitter.com/vicktop55/status/1752935988018422005
Yesterday, Crimea was subjected to a massive attack by 20 air-launched missiles supplied by NATO countries. Among the targets was the Belbek airfield, but two missiles hit a construction waste dump; apparently, our electronic warfare systems were activated.
In the morning, attacks on the west of the Crimean Peninsula continued.
In addition, at night, aircraft-type UAVs were intercepted and destroyed over the Belgorod (4 UAVs) and Kursk (1 UAV) regions.
……………
This and the previous report I posted on German language radio traffic gives a sudden change to reports coming from conflict. This comes as Nato is moving major forces to the borders of Russia for its so called exercise. This is quickly moving towards direct Nato Russia conflict.
One report of Ukraine setting up for another offensive in the next few weeks. What assets they have is unknown, but taken overall, the sudden change in reports, it looks like something is brewing that will kick off in the next few weeks.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 1 2024 13:44 utc | 122

@ JamesBond | Feb 1 2024 13:18 utc | 118
Not exactly like that. Russia manufactures now a lot more drones. You can see it in the number of destroyed armored vehicles and nato zombies which you can watch in the daily videos, must be many hundreds so far. Most tanks and other vehicles are destroyed by small drones, not other means. Some targets are hit by series of drones, some nato zombies are chased individually, that doesn’t look like “shortage” to me.
Ukros mainly target ambulances, civilians, random buildings. That is not superiority, that’s simple terrorism which is very cheap indeed. Most of their attempts are canceled by EW. Ukro drone “success” is a simulation like their economy.
Why Russia did not have drones in the first year? that it’s because their general staff is a collection of fake diplomas and careers based on butt kissing. In 2021 they had less drones than Ukr has received each 3-4 months or so, based on their own numbers, not nato msm. Even so, the natoids can’t do better than a single year of drone development in Russia.

Posted by: rk | Feb 1 2024 13:51 utc | 124

Posted by: Multipolar Express | Feb 1 2024 13:54 utc | 125
Most likely it will play out as the western front in WW1. Not much actual movement overall (though still some happened here and there as in Italy in 1917), until eventually the central powers cracked. In the german case the rear collapsed before the front, though admittedly it was a close run affair.

Posted by: Satepestage | Feb 1 2024 14:13 utc | 126

@124,
Yes, indeed UA use drones on pretty much everything living because again .. they don’t care about their own people and much less the people in East of Ukraine.
There are a lot of UA videos pointing the some successes on their drone warfare on military targets as well which shows that they are indeed resourceful on this part as well. That’s why I am saying that on this part, both sides are pretty equal which that RU channel also points.
The problem with RU EW is that it’s not that vast to cover every corner of the front and it shows. Not sure what would be faster to give an edge here(having more EW capabilities or out-produce drones).

Posted by: JamesBond | Feb 1 2024 14:21 utc | 128

@127 yes absolutely Ukraine did no better during their counter offensive. In fact they did worse because I do expect Russia to eventually take Adveevka. But who is Russia fighting in this war? Only Ukraine? Pro-Z cheering on Ukrainian deaths is a little like if the Soviets got off every time 20 Afghans got killed in the 1980s war in Afghanistan. Yes Afghans took higher casualties, you would expect that. Just like the north Vietnamese took much higher casualties than the Americans. It’s not the manageable casualties of the proxy force that matters. Even setting aside that Ukrainians are supposed to be a brother country almost identical to Russia according to the Russian narrative

Posted by: Multipolar Express | Feb 1 2024 14:27 utc | 130

Posted by: Multipolar Express | Feb 1 2024 13:54 utc | 125
Most likely it will play out as the western front in WW1. Not much actual movement overall (though still some happened here and there as in Italy in 1917), until eventually the central powers cracked. In the german case the rear collapsed before the front, though admittedly it was a close run affair.
Posted by: Satepestage | Feb 1 2024 14:13 utc | 126
I disagree.
Germany lost the World War 1 because of a naval blockade cutting off vital food supplies.
”
This dissertation examines the British naval blockade imposed on Imperial Germany
between the outbreak of war in August 1914 and the ratification of the Treaty of
Versailles in July 1919. The blockade has received modest attention in the
historiography of the First World War, despite the assertion in the British official history
that extreme privation and hunger resulted in more than 750,000 German civilian deaths.
This revelation of a humanitarian disaster may be the main reason why the British
government delayed public release of the history for nearly thirty years after its
completion in the 1930s. Yet scholarship has focused on the initial establishment of the
blockade, and the complex legal, economic, and diplomatic issues that made it ineffective
during the first part of the war. Much less has been written about its subsequent
evolution into a powerful weapon, and less still on the Allies’ continuation of the
blockade after the Armistice to compel German acceptance of the Treaty of Versailles.
Britain first implemented the naval blockade of Germany not as a merciless
hunger blockade, but rather as a time-honoured maritime strategy intended to weaken the
enemy’s military resources and thereby assist the Allied land war on the Continent.
However, its function changed over the course of the war, as Britain broadened the
classes of goods subject to interdiction, from a traditional naval strategy focused on
military supplies, into a much broader “weapon of starvation,” in the words of Winston
Churchill, the British Secretary of State for War, by 1918-1919. The aim of this
dissertation is to illuminate how and why this military transformation occurred and..”(1)
1. https://scholars.wlu.ca/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2863&context=etd

Posted by: canuck | Feb 1 2024 14:33 utc | 132

@130,
You are correct if you are seeing it through western point of view. Because we compare some wars which were different in nature and motives than the one currently is for Russia. Ukraine war is not the same as the conflict that Soviet Union did with Afghanistan or United Stated did with North Vietnam.
If indeed, that was the case, RU could’ve just keep those 4 provinces still in limbo (without approving them to be part of Russian Federation) and hope that UA would collapse in a few years or keep negotiating forever their status.
There is no turning back for them at this point and the worst result that they would accept now, is probably just to freeze the war at the present line similar to the Korean line.

Posted by: JamesBond | Feb 1 2024 14:36 utc | 134

Orban folded
50bln

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 1 2024 14:39 utc | 136

@133 The Soviets and Germans in WW2, the French in the latter stages of WW1, also conscripted with a heavy hand. A far far heavier hand than the Ukrainians are doing now, in the case of the Soviets throughout the war. It’s simple mathematics, how many men are there in Ukraine between the ages of 20 and say 65, how many have they lost up to know, how many do they have left. I think you will find there are a lot left, for years or even decades of fighting at the current pace of attrition. Does Ukraine have a lot of pensioners? Absolutely. But it’s not 80 year olds (the life expectancy is too short), it’s a lot of 60 year old grandpas that the government has no compunction against putting in trenches. And millions and millions of men younger than that. They are not literally running out of men, and won’t be for an extremely long time at this pace.
The west is fighting to the last Ukrainian, of whom there are many, as pro-Z rejoices in the deaths of a Russian-speaking proxy force that was as different from Russia as Missouri is from Ohio as recently as 1990.

Posted by: Zee You Later | Feb 1 2024 14:47 utc | 138

@138,
Ups, copy pasting much?

Posted by: JamesBond | Feb 1 2024 14:52 utc | 140

SIMPLICIUS Ѱ
@simpatico771
There were recent direct frontline reports from Russian troops on the Kupyansk front that they keep hearing “German” language on the intercepted radio chats
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 1 2024 13:32 utc | 119
Typical useless bit of information. Even if it were true why should we care ? Everybody knows Ukraine is full of mercenaries of all stripes and colors. It’s just as useless as Putin complaining about a Patriot downing the IL-76. or what, does Russia intend to file a formal complaint to the UN so that Western states are kindly asked to pull their mercenaries out of Ukraine ? That will impress them for sure.

Posted by: Micron | Feb 1 2024 14:55 utc | 142

@ Zee You Later | Feb 1 2024 14:47 utc | 138
Believing that having to threaten draft dodgers with shooting their knee caps off and having to send 60 year olds into a trench isn’t “running out of men” and repeating attempts to imagine or paint “many pro-Z” “rejoicing in the deaths” of “a Russian-speaking proxy” is an image anyone is welcome to. The real world will remain over there.

Posted by: boneless | Feb 1 2024 14:58 utc | 144

@145 not only do you sniff glue but you are not great at reading comprehension either. I was saying that Russia is not fighting just Ukraine, so there is not much point in rejoicing over casualties in what is a disposable proxy force for the West

Posted by: Zee You Later | Feb 1 2024 15:16 utc | 146

The Soviets and Germans in WW2, the French in the latter stages of WW1, also conscripted with a heavy hand.
Posted by: Zee You Later | Feb 1 2024 14:47 utc | 138
And they were getting a shorth breath in that regards. Manpower was becoming an issue for the soviet army at the end of the war for example (Glantz et all),the french had large mutinies in 1917.
Given that the russians do not have the same war aims of nazi Germany at some point the ukrainians may well go down the Kiel route, not anytime soon I expect but not many years from now either.
There are also a number of others factors to consider, such as the needs of economy/infrastructure, however threadbare, increased loss from increasingly older and ill trained conscripts etc.

Posted by: Satepestage | Feb 1 2024 15:24 utc | 148

averros | Feb 1 2024 9:48 utc | 99
Fully agree.
In early 2022, I expected RuAF to advance & rapidly control maybe half of Ukraine.
Then what?
AFU would’ve been largely intact, able to wage a long guerilla war. Such an ‘Afghanistan 2.0’ would’ve been a nightmare for Russia – and was obviously London’s (and Washington’s, to some extent) wet dream.
Remembering both Afghanistan and Chechnya, Moscow didn’t fall into that trap.
One question, though:
Do hardcore Nazis actually die in large number on the front?
I thought they stay mostly in the rear, while forced conscripts are used as cannon fodder…?

Posted by: smuks | Feb 1 2024 15:36 utc | 150

Fully agree.
In early 2022, I expected RuAF to advance & rapidly control maybe half of Ukraine.
Then what?
AFU would’ve been largely intact, able to wage a long guerilla war. Such an ‘Afghanistan 2.0’ would’ve been a nightmare for Russia – and was obviously London’s (and Washington’s, to some extent) wet dream.
Remembering both Afghanistan and Chechnya, Moscow didn’t fall into that trap.
Excuse me but this is ridiculous. So you think it’s better to have reduced half a dozen cities to rubble, mine the Zaporozhie region, and fight precisely in the Donbass which Russia is supposed to protect ? Besides, in case you haven’t realized, AFU is *still* waging war. And contrary to all predictions they haven’t collapsed yet.
It wouldn’t have been a nightmare for Russia. Just imagine if Russia for instance had been able to conquer all Ukraine east of the Dnieper. This would have been a huge natural barrier for Russia, enabling it to comfortably prepare the next phase.
God, I can’t imagine how people can be so delusional.
To sum up : if Russia had been able to rapidly advance and seize all eastern Ukraine :
– they would still fight Ukraine of course, but be in a much better defensive position, have drastically less risks of getting hit in the rear (as the front would be 200 km westwards), in summary be able to spend significantly less resources to defend their position
– AFU would have been a lot more degraded than now. If Russia had actually been able to execute a proper encirclement, they would have captured many experienced brigades. Also, they would have greatly reduced the operational space for Ukraine.
There would have been no negatives compared to today, only positives.

Posted by: Micron | Feb 1 2024 16:04 utc | 152

“This should be heard lound and clear in Ramstein but will not be.”
Posted by: SOS | Feb 1 2024 15:56 utc | 151
i dont think they care about that. nato/eu has made it absolutely clear that their goal is to inflict a strategic defeat upon the russian federation.
the ukrainian people are just the expendable proxy.
if russia extends the territory because of longer range weapons, nato/eu will simply deliver even longer range weapons. lost ukrainian territory is of no consequence for them. they only know escalation.
borell the gardener said it a few days ago, that they do not want any ceasfire at all. for them keeping this thing going is of utmost importance.
after all, its only russians dying.
and despite all their loudmouthed talking about ukrainian civilians beeing killed by russia, they know darn well that those are of russian descent. so its a win for those bastards.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Feb 1 2024 16:08 utc | 154

“My best guess is that the boomers in charge of RuMod are inept but they are loyal, so Putin sticks with them instead of trusting “outsiders” that might do better but pose potential loyalty or political risks to him.”
Posted by: Zee You Later | Feb 1 2024 16:16 utc | 155
The West’s plan was 90% predicated on that economic sanctions would stop the SMO. Now they are on plan B-and it ain’t working.
Russia has a plan, it has stuck to it..
Time is on their side as they deplete NATO weapons and Uke soldiers.
The West has massive debts and social unrest (see Texas; see Brussels today where protesting farmers are receiving rubber bullets) , Russia does not. 2024 elections alone will begin to stall the West’s support for Ukraine.
The West placed immense fortifications in Ugledar, Adeevka, Marinka ( finally taken)and these citadels take time to conquer especially
if you want to limit casualties on your side.
Meanwhile the Russian army is getting whipped into shape-that takes time-as well as battlefield testing of new weapons and tactics of which there is no replacement. I would expect in the coming months China and North Korea will test their new weapons in the SMO.

Posted by: canuck | Feb 1 2024 16:30 utc | 156

Glad to see people finally realizing that the conflict is tightly moderated to not only let Russia win, but to not let Ukraine win too. I have wrote about it in October, and most of the responses were mocking.
I guess they are less mocking now, heh.
So, what will happen next, then? The US and the Biden administration in particular have basically shown us that they are happy with how the war unfolds now, and they won’t change anything in it. We may see Trump getting to change this – or we may not. We’ll see after the inauguration, in a year from now. Before that, there is very little probability of something interesting happening. People will just keep dying, with little reason.

Posted by: AI_Avenger | Feb 1 2024 18:06 utc | 158

Posted by: Zee You Later | Feb 1 2024 16:16 utc
How do you know what strikes on electric generation and distribution didn’t work? What are your exact sources please?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 1 2024 18:26 utc | 160

Posted by: Zee You Later | Feb 1 2024 14:55 utc | 143

@140 I thought I had been blocked because the comment didn’t stick right away. Any name I use has about a 1 hour or less life expectancy on this blog

This user name does not yet appear in moa
and he is obviously unwilling to abide by the rules
“Please choose ONE unique username and stick to it. Using multiple names is sockpuppeteering and will get you banned.”

Posted by: ghiwen | Feb 2 2024 7:11 utc | 162