As everyone immediately insided, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will gradually lose territory in a positional war. They lost a new village, and the Russian Federation is getting closer to the Oskol River.
There are many problems and reasons for this:
1. No one prepared good lines of defense. Only now they are in a hurry to do it. But the corruption in this case is very high. There is a possibility that a lot will be stolen.
2. There are no human reserves and a shortage of equipment/ammunition, which was spent in the disastrous summer offensive of 2023.
3. Falling morale. Growing disappointment among the masses.
4. Ignoring the West, which stopped the supply of weapons and money.
5. Personnel shortage of officers.
6. Misunderstanding of the military and political bloc of the country.
7. The beginning of squabbling between elites, politicians, business, security officials, lobbyists, etc. The redistribution has begun. The unity of the country has been lost.
At the moment the forecasts are negative. Let’s see what both sides can speed up or change.

https://t.me/legitimniy/17136

Posted by: Down South | Jan 28 2024 14:51 utc | 3

“If Ukraine falls, we will lay claim to Transcarpathia.” Hungarian far-right politician László Torockai has made claims to the Ukrainian region.
“If as a result of the war the statehood of Ukraine ceases, then Our Motherland, as the only party in Hungary, will lay claim to Transcarpathia,” local media quote Torotskaya.
He touched upon Transcarpathia while speaking in Budapest at the congress of the Our Motherland party.
Torockai also spoke in favor of strengthening ties with non-Western countries and accused the EU of trying to “colonize” Hungary.

https://t.me/Media_Post_UA/16196

This statement will only increase real estate prices in Transcarpathia, the growth of anti-Ukrainian sentiment in the region and the demarche of the regional elite.
We have talked about this many times, pointing out that all of Ukraine’s neighbors are interested in its collapse.
Including Poland, which was precisely the one that encouraged Kyiv to raise the stakes and abandon the peace agreements.

https://t.me/legitimniy/17137

The most offensive thing is that a year ago no one thought that Poland would become the main actor in the EU in the fight against Ukrainian goods. Now more and more politicians in neighboring countries are publicly announcing territorial claims. Hungary, now Romania, and the time will come when Warsaw will claim its rights to Galicia…
We are ready to sacrifice Romania’s membership in NATO in order to annex the territories of Ukraine, – Newsweek with reference to the head of the Romanian AUR party, Claudiu Tarziu

https://t.me/rezident_ua/21374

There have been a lot of statements from neighbors that they are laying claim to our lands. This is a public greeting to Zelensky and his concept of war to the last, which could lead to the collapse of the country.
That is, Zelensky puts the future of the entire country at stake for his ambitions.
Believe me, many border regions will happily leave Ukraine, since there is no future with such ballast of debts and problems that will drive Ukraine into poverty for decades.

https://t.me/legitimniy/17139

Posted by: Down South | Jan 28 2024 14:57 utc | 5

@ Down South, §5:
Galicia (Lvov, Volyn, Rovne, Tarnopol and Stanislav) may opt for autonomy (= NATO protection) within Poland.
Transcarpathia would vote for independence.
Only Bessarabia (Chernovtsy & Budjak) would join their neighbours, either Moldavia or Rumania.

Posted by: John Marks | Jan 28 2024 15:27 utc | 7

The eastern European ‘neighbours’ are like vultures, circling the carcass of Ukraine 🙂
Or seagulls squarking over a fish haul on the dock
“Mine! MINE! Mine!
(In the wonderful movie “Finding Nemo”)

Posted by: Rain | Jan 28 2024 15:39 utc | 9

Dead man still talking Biden is terrified at this point. He can see the entire network of wicked corruption that he and his family and associates have established over decades of service to the most vile empire of lies in human history disintegrating before his dying eyes.
It’s glorious to behold.

Posted by: Robert Hope | Jan 28 2024 16:22 utc | 11

Many posters seem to believe that when war occurs all economic ties get squashed why would one trade with the enemy? A reasonable query.
Well here is real skin: the Western governments are controlled, indirectly by the City of London, populated, scratch that, polluted with Anglo/Zionists. All they desire is power, money and supine Serfs.
War is the best camouflage for rentier class to gain money and power through lending, land speculation, land appropriation, smuggling, and obscene fees for financing military equipment et al..
During the Napoleonic Wars the Rothschild family financed both sides of the conflict. The sons of Mayer Rothschild had offices in London, Paris, Frankfurt, (the original office of these Ashkenazis) Vienna and Naples.(1)
On Monday , June 19th 1815 the day after the Battle of Waterloo, the British gilts (govt. bonds) market opened . All the market participants, traders were well aware of the Rothschild’s carrier pigeon network and knew that the Rothschilds would find out about any news from Europe before they would.
Nathan Rothschild (seems he was the brightest of the bunch) started selling heavily his gilts-the ‘tell’ the traders were waiting for and they sold like mad hence the gilt prices dropped precipitously till when the selling stopped Nathan bought all the gilts back at bargain prices: a huge fortune (they already had huge fortunes)made in like 2 hours.
In WW2 Prescott Bush, father of both presidents, was the CEO of Brown Brothers, Harriman till the US congress shut him and the firm down in the summer of 1942 because he was trading with the Nazis.(2)
Finally, do you remember in the wake of the 911 in the US they shut down all fights from and to the United States except for one flight: the Bin Ladens were flown out. As everyone knows by now (I won’t bother to footnote it) the Bush family were partners in the Bin Laden family enterprises.
The above is to denote that the City , leaders, (perhaps aliens?), oligarchs they are playing a different game. They and their craven press will get us Serf’s indignant over ’40 babies throats getting slashed’ or “Uighers being repressed”, “they hate our freedoms” and other such nonsense in order for us to play the game so they can shear us ONE MORE TIME.
Commercial contracts are more sacred to the Anglo/Zionists 9or Russia for that matte) than human lives or rights; even Putin does it, the US (still buying Russian oil) all the Elite are in on it.
What to do to sort this mess out-educate the masses so they don’t play the game and unite to reform or revolutionize this corrupt bullshit.
How does one accomplish that?
The answer is way above my intellectual pay grade.
1. Starting as dealers in luxury items and traders in coins and commercial papers, Mayer and his sons eventually became bankers to whom the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic wars of 1792–1815 came as a piece of great good fortune. Mayer and his eldest son, Amschel, supervised the growing business from Frankfurt, while Nathan established a branch in London in 1804, Jakob settled in Paris in 1811, and Salomon and Karl opened offices in Vienna and Naples, respectively, in the 1820s. The wars, for the Rothschilds, meant loans to warring princes; smuggling as well as legal trading in key products such as wheat, cotton, colonial produce, and arms; and the transfer of international payments between the British Isles and the Continent that Napoleon vainly attempted to close to British trade. Peace transformed the growing Roth
2. George Bush’s junior grandfather, the late US senator Prescott Bush, was a director and shareholder of companies that profited from their involvement with the financial backers of Nazi Germany.
The Guardian has obtained confirmation from newly discovered files in the US National Archives that a firm of which Prescott Bush was a director was involved with the financial architects of Nazism.
His business dealings, which continued until his company’s assets were seized in 1942 under the Trading with the Enemy Act, has led more than 60 years later to a civil action for damages being brought in Germany against the Bush family by two former slave labourers at Auschwitz and to a hum of pre-election controversy.
The evidence has also prompted one former US Nazi war crimes prosecutor to argue that the late senator’s action should have been grounds for prosecution for giving aid and comfort to the enemy.

Posted by: canuck | Jan 28 2024 16:29 utc | 13

More from Karaganov:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCD8l12WeP0

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 28 2024 16:41 utc | 15

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/28/ukraine-security-service-arrests-five-people-40m-arms-fraud-corruption-clampdown-ministry-of-defence-mortar-shells
More corruption.

Posted by: KingCobra | Jan 28 2024 16:51 utc | 17

Ukraine Weekly Update, 26th January: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-6be

Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Jan 28 2024 17:06 utc | 19

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 28 2024 6:15 utc | 182

….Just think about the absurdity of the situation — those Bradleys slaughtering Russians around Stepovo run on Russian oil. So do the HIMARS, all the SPGs, all the AFU logistics trucks, and of course, the Su-24s that launched the Storm Shadows that destroyed the BSF HQ and several ships.
How f***d up is that?
At least cut them off from fuel supplies. Sure, the West can send them fuel, and probably will. But at least make them have to exert themselves to supply it, don’t give it to them directly.
Who fights a war by providing the enemy with fuel???
Of course, I am sure the 5D chess masters will come up with an explanation for why this is a strategic masterstroke.
But I will save them the effort, because Putin was asked this question back in October during the big Valdai Q&A, and he answered it with “But we get money for it”.
Well, what more is there to say…

the lying CIPSO again
the issue is a contract about TRANSIT to EUROPE
– ukr. get money from russia ( Transit fees according to the ship-or-pay clause )
– russia get money from the european contractual partners; companies mainly from austria and slovakia
from valdai:

“…Fyodor Lukyanov: Mr President, you mentioned gas shipments via Ukraine. Part of our public is perplexed: why are we doing this? Why are we paying them this money?
Vladimir Putin: We are paying them because it is a transit country, and we have to ship our gas via Ukraine under our contractual obligations to our counterparts in Europe.
Fyodor Lukyanov: But this also strengthens our enemy’s defence capability.
Vladimir Putin: But it also strengthens our finances – we get paid for the product….”

the CIPSO fool has already claimed that ukr. paid money to russia and thus paid for the war against itself !!!
—> shаdοwbanned | Jan 25 2024 14:09 utc

Posted by: ghiwen | Jan 28 2024 17:25 utc | 21

Posted by: ghiwen | Jan 28 2024 17:25 utc | 21
Accusing someone of being a paid agent is not really classy. If you don’t agree with him explain calmly why. I always assume that when people get angry during an argument, it’s because their position is weak and they know deep down they don’t really have a leg to stand on.
Your first argument is disingenuous. Oil or gas does flow to non-ukrainian countries, but these instantly give it back to Ukraine, at least that’s been the case for gas for several years through reverse flow contracts. And anyway, France or Poland are hostile states, no less so than Ukraine.
I didn’t also understand your second argument. Basically it’s nitpicking. The gist of shadowbanned’s argument is right, for Putin it’s about money. I can partly understand it, but it’s not very clean either. And let’s not forget the ammonia pipeline story.

Posted by: Micron | Jan 28 2024 17:40 utc | 23

I like simplicius because he seems the most honest and open-minded of the main English-language pro-Z analysts (it says something about your side when the most reasonable guy is a 9/11 truther), and I get the sense he’s getting progressively blackpilled as he spends more time on twitter and reads the likes of Michael Kaufman. But even with him, now and then I read his posts and I think “I’m just lapping up slop.”
When the Ukrainians failed so miserably in their counter-offensive, I thought “wow the Russians finally learned how to fight, better late than never.” Now that I’ve given the Adveevka offensive some time, I see that no, the Russians learned how to play defense, they still have no clue about offensive operations. So you have two sides that both know defense, but have no offensive game. That’s called a stalemate.

Posted by: Chessmaster Flex | Jan 28 2024 17:51 utc | 25

So I come on the forum to get updated on Russia’s grind towards the Dnieper and all points west, along with news of the west’s collapse. I don’t know what the fuck the trolls and their sock puppets are thinking… that somehow their agit prop on an obscure forum fulla old guys that have been ensconced on a barstool for sometimes multiple decades is going to have some effect on the course of history that actually the point of this cheap beer and whiskey joint?
The only other reason for their tolerated drivel is they are morons and buffoons. Possibly paid shills, but that just adds credence to the west’s decline in a hail mary sorta way.
Troll on. The Scroll beats The Troll everytime.

Posted by: comrade simba | Jan 28 2024 17:56 utc | 27

Lol it’s not tolerated, I got blocked within 30 minutes previously on this blog. The efforts to create a safe space for you to keep sniffing glue continue

Posted by: Chessmaster Flex | Jan 28 2024 18:17 utc | 29

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Front #Summary for 28 Jan 2024 by 18:22⚡️
🔹In #Kherson Direction, in #Krynki, the AFU are holding on to a scrap of land and the nearest islands. Our forces report that about 40 AFU soldiers remain in the ruins of the village. Ours are striking, the AFU publish footage of magnesium “lighters” flying at them from Grad MLRSs. Most of the islands on the #Dnieper River remain under the control of our forces, but this at the cost of losses, mainly due to the AFU drones.
🔹In #Zaporozhye Direction, our forces regained a number of positions west of #Rabotino, the AFU counterattacked at #Novoprokopovka and #Verbovoye, with no success.
🔹In #SouthDonetsk Direction, from #Maryinka, our army is advancing in three directions. South to #Pobeda, west to #Georgiyevka, and in the north there is a powerful assault on the forest belts near #Krasnogorovka. where the AFU has pulled up reserves and is desperately fighting. Here, as well as along the entire frontline, an overwhelming number of Ukrainian kamikaze drones are operating. From the tape, ours are talking about the lack of “trench” electronic warfare, the most effective defence against UAVs.
🔹In #Donetsk Direction, the Ukrainians are publishing footage of our damaged equipment in the grey zone near #Novobakhmutovka to the north of #Avdeyevka. It’s a pity for the equipment, but this indicates that our forces are making their way to #Ocheretino. When ours recapture this AFU supply hub, the situation for them in #Avdeyevka will become a stalemate. In the south of the city, ours control the streets and are preparing for further attacks. There is also progress in the area of ​the #​Ivushki dachas, from #Kamenka towards #Peschanoye, and the zone of control at Tsarskaya Okhota has been expanded. After heavy fighting, our army made a breakthrough in #Pervomayskoye.
🔹In #Bakhmut Direction, our forces expanded their bridgehead near #Ivanovskoye (#Krasnoye). North of #Kurdyumovka, long-abandoned positions behind the railway line were retaken.
🔹In #Svatovo Direction, the #Kupyansk front reports successes of our forces in #Tabayevka and #Kotlyarovka north of #Krakhmalnoye. Ours pushed the AFU out of #Tabayevka and started to clear the village. But it is difficult to gain a foothold in the ruins, so in fact #Tabayevka and #Kotlyarovka are in the grey zone. In the south, at #Peschanoye and #Berestovoye, where the AFU withdrew from #Tabayevka, our forces are making their way towards #Kovsharovka, apparently the vector of movement towards #Kupyansk from the south has been determined. At #Sinkovka on the northern flank our pressure does not stop, there are local successes.
☠️ The AFU are expanding the practice of small drone attacks on civilians. A man was wounded in #Donetsk. Over the day in the #Belgorod region, 20 discharges. In the #Bryansk region, air defence forces destroyed an aircraft-type UAV.
💥 During the night, Gerani hit #Zaporozhye, an armour repair shop was destroyed. Unfortunately, there is no more information about the strike on the Kremenchuk Oil Refinery.

https://t.me/sitreports/21955

Posted by: Down South | Jan 28 2024 18:40 utc | 31

@ Down South, §5:
Galicia (Lvov, Volyn, Rovne, Tarnopol and Stanislav) may opt for autonomy (= NATO protection) within Poland.
Transcarpathia would vote for independence.
Only Bessarabia (Chernovtsy & Budjak) would join their neighbours, either Moldavia or Rumania.
Posted by: John Marks | Jan 28 2024 15:27 utc | 7
Neither Galicia nor Transcarpathia are viable nations states, and Russia will not tolerate them being aligned with NATO as independent- and therefore easily sacrificable entities from which to launch more attacks against Russia. If Hungary, Romania and Poland ingest these areas of the current Ukraine as integral parts of their states, then the entire states will have to bear the consequence of aggression against Russia. This, along with some other assurances, might make various arrangement agreeable to Russia, but ‘independence’ in a condition of utter economic dependence on the the west will not be allowed.

Posted by: Honzo | Jan 28 2024 19:16 utc | 33

Ancient Christian artifacts and relics from Ukraine are turning up in Europe.
Some are being sold to “private collectors” (a euphemism for Satanists and Occultists) and some are being bought by museums.
The Washington Post recently reported that an intermediary for a French dealer had obtained Christian relics and artifacts directly from a contact at a Ukrainian museum. Apparently important 6th century manuscripts and cross have gone to France, a provocation of sorts as they were Russian property fron Soviet times.

Posted by: Artifacts | Jan 28 2024 19:56 utc | 35

“In the 19th and early 20th century, revolutionaries had to physically approach the elites in order to take them out, and that was generally a one-shot suicide mission.
The game is completely different now.
The problem is there were a lot of revolutionaries back then, and almost none today.
Even with all those challenges in the past, the conditions of the masses did change dramatically for the better between 1860 and 1960, as a direct result of the pressure exercised towards the personal safety of the elites.
Today the potential means for such bottom up control are much more potent. But they are only potential. On the other side, top-down means of control have drastically improved too, and they are not potential, they are fully realized.”
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 28 2024 16:52 utc | 18
Can’t argue with the history or the rhetoric-well done.

Posted by: canuck | Jan 28 2024 20:26 utc | 37

There was a video on AussieCossack TG where a Ukrainian Skala nazi battalion member executed a mobilized who refused to fight. They are at this point committing straight out genocide.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 28 2024 20:35 utc | 39

Al-Tanf attack:
More problems for the empire. More cruise missiles will be spent in the retaliation that can’t be used against the Houthis.
More jingoistic rhetoric from war hawks in the Senate.
More problems for Pudding skull prez.
More distractions for the empire that Ukraine cannot afford.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 28 2024 21:03 utc | 41

Interesting that in order to get Greece to send its Russian gear, the U.S. is including Bradleys as part of what Greece gets. Cynics might see this as America being far more OK with Russian Federation forces easily blowing up older Russian stuff than seeing them work harder to fight against newer American stuff.
Aid still gets sent to Ukraine, so that’s good PR for the Biden administration, but that results in no additional videos of American armor getting destroyed.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jan 28 2024 22:00 utc | 43

Babel-17 @ 43

Interesting that in order to get Greece to send its Russian gear, the U.S. is including Bradleys as part of what Greece gets.

Greece like all the EU has its balls in the USA’s vise. Once they get the Bradleys, the USA will let the Greek military polish and grease them and exercise with them a while, then give another good turn on the vise and make Greece hand them over to Ukraine too.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 28 2024 22:49 utc | 45

https://t.me/readovkanews/73148

In Donetsk, the Armed Forces of Ukraine dropped ammunition on a family – at that moment they were buying groceries, almost nothing was left of the legs of the father of two children.
The man and his family were buying groceries at the market in the Kirovsky district of Donetsk, when suddenly a drone flew up and dropped ammunition directly on the people. His wife and children were not injured, but the Donetsk resident himself was injured by shrapnel.
It all happened next to a local pharmacy. Caring pharmacists ran out to help the wounded man and managed to bandage his wounds before the doctors arrived. The Donetsk resident was hospitalized with heavy blood loss.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 28 2024 23:56 utc | 47

Eventually the AFU will either have to abandon Zelenskyy’s ambitions and order what would be now be a very expensive and risk filled retreat to fortified positions, or accept an attrition of men and materiel that will leave then hollowed out.
The West could save them through diplomacy; Putin would love to take that call because the West has long insisted this is Ukraine’s war, and their stepping up to negotiate directly with Russia would expose that lie, and most importantly, put everything on the table that Russia hopes to see there.
Imo that would come after Zelenskyy was gone, or force his departure, or make him irrelevant, reduce to him to being seen as the clowning boor that he started as, playing a piano with his pens.
Yadda yadda yadda, unless the West was immediately willing to concede everything, from Ukraine rewriting their Constitution, never NATO being confirmed by all parties, Russia’s assets returned, sanctions ended, etc., I would imagine there being no deal agreed to and signed until either America knew who their next President was, and he agreed to the deal, or both Trump and Biden fully committed to it ahead of time. And that ain’t happening.
So negotiations can and should happen, but it’s hard to envision a firm deal coming about until after January 2025, and it’s become undeniable by even the MSM that the AFU fought mightily but is now irrevocably played out, and in an inescapable position that leaves them open to annihilation. So I think the war will wage on, even if the West requests for President Putin to pick up the phone.
Imo, if and when the West’s military establishment decides it’s in their best interest to break the news to the civilian leadership the Ukraine adventurism has failed, that could be the signal that a tough choice has to be made. Either start coming to terms now, or become responsible for an accelerating slaughter of AFU soldiers, one that would inexorably lead to the kind of defeat that gets heavily featured in history books for a century and beyond.
The Biden administration has the Gaza genocide on their record already, and I’m beginning to think the majority of the establishment/MIC is geting ready to decide to make Team Biden the fall guy/the sin eater for all the foreign policy disasters, including Afghanistan and the border crisis, and so they could segregate them from the rest of their collective, and offer them up to be sacrificed. As a side note, it’s hard to imagine Blinken and Sullivan having a future in any further Democratic administrations, not after their enabling the IDF actions in Gaza, actions which are held abhorrent by so many young Democrats. And given the highly charged and partisan atmosphere of the Biden administration, it’s nearly unimaginable that even a Zionist friendly future Republican administration would want anything to do with them. Biden’s State Department and Defense Department heads are imo ripe for becoming non-persons.
If the West can’t pull off a minor miracle and save Zelenskyy’s bacon, then I can imagine the MIC deciding it was time to infiltrate and ingratiate itself to Team Trump, and leave the door open to making them their new host organism. For all we know, they are already making overtures, and offering up some aid to Trump. A couple of Democratic judges recently had some very damaging information exposed, and Trump is benefiting as a result. I’m not saying there’s a connection, I’m suggesting that the deep state can easily make themself useful to a candidate. Hell, they got Biden elected with all their leaks, and misinformation.
P.S. I posted the above in the earlier thread, before refreshing the main page and seeing there was already a new one. Given how long it took me to correct typos and whatnot, lol, I hope it’s taken as OK that I post it again in the new thread, so that at least a few people could read it.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jan 29 2024 0:37 utc | 49

If Russia was taking 135 prisoners to be exchanged, that means that Ukraine was bringing 135 Russian prisoners to the same border exchange site.
Where these prisoners actually in transit? If so, what happened to them?

Posted by: wagelaborer | Jan 29 2024 0:50 utc | 51

I see some posters still don’t understand attrition, so here’s another attempt to explain.
If Ukraine has 100K quality soldiers and Ukraine:Russia attrition ratio is 2:1, then 50K Russians MUST die or be permanently maimed to fully attrit the Ukrainians. Russia can suffer these losses sooner or later, but the only way to reduce them is change the attrition ratio in Russia’s favor, and slow progress is probably best way to do that.
100K number is not static. As morale drops, some Ukrainian soldiers may desert or surrender instead of needing to be attrited. Again, my assumption would be that slow, grinding progress, which so exasperates posters here at MOA, is also wearing on the nerves of Ukrainians and hence worsening morale and thus increasing desertions and surrenders.
Also, Ukraine constantly replaces attrition losses, thus effectively increasing 100K number, and hence Russian 50K number. Slow grinding warfare is evidently doing an excellent job of demoralizing potential Ukrainian conscripts, thus reducing ability to replace attrition losses.
In other words, slow and steady is almost certainly the right approach to minimize Russian lossses.
Obviously, I just made up these numbers. If the 2:1 and 50K numbers horrify your tender eyes, use some other ratio. It’s the theory that matters, not the exact numbers in my model.

Posted by: anonposter | Jan 29 2024 1:19 utc | 53

Posted by: Down South | Jan 28 2024 18:38 utc | 30
>Important to note they are both Ukrainian channels not Russian.
You don’t know that for a fact.
I follow those channels myself but I keep my mind open about who is really sponsoring them. In my opinion, it doesn’t really matter who is behind any anonymous blog!channel. What matters is the reasoning based on indisputable public information. For example, downing of IL-76, public statements by politicians of various countries, changes in tone of articles published in western press, etc are all indisputable facts. What blogs/channels contribute is interpretation of these facts. If interpretation makes sense, it doesn’t matter who (if anyone) is paying blog/channel author.

Posted by: anonposter | Jan 29 2024 1:37 utc | 55

Lol it’s not tolerated, I got blocked within 30 minutes previously on this blog. The efforts to create a safe space for you to keep sniffing glue continue
Posted by: Chessmaster Flex | Jan 28 2024 18:17 utc | 29

Bullshit you sniveling little coward. Here ideas stand. Easy to do drive by smears when you’re a nobody with no ideas worth sharing. If you just want to repeat the propagandist bullshit you have swallowed hook line and sinker I’m sure there are other imbeciles willing to listen to your cauterwauling, even here.
Suck it up buttercup. Ukraine is getting the screws put to her. Maerica is desperately trying to get Russia to the negotiating table through reprehensible acts of terror.
You can tell the true believers by their inability to analyze the situation with any clarity. How’s that shiny new Skynex doing? Already blown up you say? I thought it only arrived in theater 2 days ago?
Utter geniuses.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 29 2024 1:42 utc | 57

#25
> So you have two sides that both know defense, but have no offensive game. That’s called a stalemate.
If the trenches were the only thing happening in this war.. sure… but as long as the russians can produce missles/drones faster than the west can produce “anti-missles” (air defense munition), the russians are winning. As long as fab-(1)500s are being thrown to the mobiks, while ukraine can fire a missle or two per week, the russia is winning. As long as anything in the ukraine can be destroyed by kizhals, while ukraine can do minor acts of sabotage, russia is winning. EU is out of money, US has internal issues, the money runs out, the pensioners don’t get paid, the army doesn’t get paid, the politicians don’t get paid… what then? Look at world war 1… stalemate, until it wasn’t. I mean sure, US and EU can print money, but weapons and ammo have to be actually produced in factories that don’t exist, by workers that don’t exist either. This is either going nuclear, until ukraine rises up to their leaders or literally to the last ukrainian.

Posted by: Sirki | Jan 29 2024 2:15 utc | 59

If Russia was taking 135 prisoners to be exchanged, that means that Ukraine was bringing 135 Russian prisoners to the same border exchange site.
Where these prisoners actually in transit? If so, what happened to them?
Posted by: wagelaborer | Jan 29 2024 0:50 utc | 51

Don’t know what Ukraine did with them but I don’t think they had a similar number to exchange. The two prisoner exchanges I have seen both have Russia giving up more. I believe Ukraine has less POWs than Russia for one or two reasons.

Posted by: Simon | Jan 29 2024 2:50 utc | 61

When the Ukrainians failed so miserably in their counter-offensive, I thought “wow the Russians finally learned how to fight, better late than never.” Now that I’ve given the Adveevka offensive some time, I see that no, the Russians learned how to play defense, they still have no clue about offensive operations. So you have two sides that both know defense, but have no offensive game. That’s called a stalemate.
Posted by: Chessmaster Flex | Jan 28 2024 17:51 utc | 25
———————————————————-
You might be new to these pages. The substantial fortification and the military challenges were covered in detail and discussed a while back.
Keep in mind that the Slo Mo attrition is also successful in accomplishing one of the objectives Putin stated at the onset: Demilitarization of Ukraine. That is happening, you may agree. Check anonposter | Jan 29 2024 1:19 utc | 53 above.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jan 29 2024 3:13 utc | 63

I see some posters still don’t understand attrition, so here’s another attempt to explain.
If Ukraine has 100K quality soldiers and Ukraine:Russia attrition ratio is 2:1, then 50K Russians MUST die or be permanently maimed to fully attrit the Ukrainians. Russia can suffer these losses sooner or later, but the only way to reduce them is change the attrition ratio in Russia’s favor, and slow progress is probably best way to do that.
Posted by: anonposter | Jan 29 2024 1:19 utc | 53

We understand attrition very well.
The points that you are missing are that:
1) It is not 50K Russians dying, it is more like 130K — 50K on the Russian side, 80K on the Ukrainian, and then perhaps 20K Banderites and a smattering of foreign mercenaries. Thus Russia loses double and triple.
2) Russia doesn’t have to suffer these losses. It is the largest nuclear power in the world. It is absurd to be in a situation in which you lose hundreds of thousands of people and you are the largest nuclear power in the world. Nukes are supposed to fly for a lot less than that, precisely in order to prevent it.
And no, it is not going to result in an all out exchange — all of Europe can be vaporized and the US will tuck its tail and retreat to its own island. Nobody is sacrificing Boston for Rzeszow. The Ukrainian borders could have been sealed a long time ago, ending the carnage.
3) But it’s not even that level of escalation that the Kremlin has reached and balked at. All kinds of objects and individuals inside Ukraine that should have been hit on Day 1 are still intact, and this has caused the needless death of so many people.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 29 2024 4:53 utc | 65

Are you able to provide sources for your information that the Russian Federation is losing far more soldiers KIA than the Ukrainians are, and that significant structures (such as military depots, critical infrastructure being used by the AFU) in Ukraine that the Russians should be targeting or should have targeted are still standing?
Posted by: Refinnejenna | Jan 29 2024 5:13 utc | 64

You have serious reading comprehension issues, combined with an appalling ignorance about the nature of the conflict.
Most “Ukrainians” are actually ethnic Russians. And this a civil war imposed on Russia by the West.
Thus most killed Ukrainians are a loss for Russia too.
The number of actual Banderite Galicians is small in total, and they deliberately prefer to stay in the rear, so it is not at all clear how much they are being attrited.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 29 2024 5:41 utc | 67

Posted by: Micron | Jan 28 2024 17:40 utc | 23

Posted by: ghiwen | Jan 28 2024 17:25 utc | 21
Accusing someone of being a paid agent is not really classy. If you don’t agree with him explain calmly why. I always assume that when people get angry during an argument, it’s because their position is weak and they know deep down they don’t really have a leg to stand on.
Your first argument is disingenuous. Oil or gas does flow to non-ukrainian countries, but these instantly give it back to Ukraine, at least that’s been the case for gas for several years through reverse flow contracts. And anyway, France or Poland are hostile states, no less so than Ukraine.
I didn’t also understand your second argument. Basically it’s nitpicking. The gist of shadowbanned’s argument is right, for Putin it’s about money. I can partly understand it, but it’s not very clean either. And let’s not forget the ammonia pipeline story.

“…Accusing someone of being a paid agent is not really classy…”
maybe its not classy BUT it is the truth
his behavior corresponds EXACTLY to the specifications at CIPSO !
(half-truths, mixing, twisting, if nothing else take direct lies…. )
“…explain calmly why…”
i claim for myself that my post is very calmly
in contrast to CIPSO
“…..
In general, my rule is to cheer every time someone who has done that dies of COVID…”
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 14 2024 0:17 utc | 65
Now to the “arguments”
I assume that you are referring to the transit contract with the “first argument”
how can it be disingenuous —> that is a FACT ; it’s a quote
this becomes clear when you calmly read through the quote from the valdai event
if the CIPSO means something else, then he should write it that way ( and stick to the truth; provide facts !! and best of all a source ) or he should stick a note to his comment
to the second “argument” “…nitpicking…”
CIPSO has already openly lied about this topic
“…
oil, gas and other commodities still sent not just to the dear partners, but even to Ukraine (the AFU runs on Russian fuel)
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 25 2024 14:09 utc
AND we have ukrainian propagana
Ukraine’s President Zelensky to BBC: Blood money being paid for Russian oil
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61107725
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kensilverstein/2023/08/08/cut-off-russias-oil-and-gas-revenues-now-to-end-war/
President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Dutch oil trader Vitol of “brazen profiteering from blood oil
https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-calls-on-worlds-largest-oil-trader-vitol-to-stop-shipping-russian-oil/

Posted by: ghiwen | Jan 29 2024 6:59 utc | 69

Posted by: Milites | Jan 28 2024 12:12 utc | 198 on previous Ukraine thread
Posted by: Barrel Brown | Jan 28 2024 9:35 utc | 187
Thank you for replying and “picking me to pieces”. I will respond to some of your points and will try to be economical with my words. I also apologise for taking time to respond, but I have had power supply problems.
You wrote-
1 “That about says it all, any source has kernels of truth, if they are rejected you restrict your ability to ‘understand’ events which leads to frustration. Those ‘experts’ you dismiss have produced some excellent analysis, pre-SMO, that explain the nature of the conflict and its dynamics, that seem to so frustrate some posters here.”
Not frustration Milites, but a developed ability to glean the real truth from BS. Every good and believable lie has a kernel of truth. It is the job of the Western think tanks and MSM columnists to massage this kernel, add selected new facts and the considered opinions of chosen (tame) experts to boost the credibility of the narrative. From my reading experience of MSM they are quite proficient at these tasks and have enjoyed success in peddling the desired messages.
I do not completely dismiss the publications of think tanks like ISW, Chatham House and even RUSI, but rarely buy their complete theses since it is their business to “push an agenda.” Russian think tanks (if such exist) would undoubtedly champion the RF narrative and agenda.
There are a few Western oriented MSM commentators I do bother to take seriously since they have undoubted experience and knowledge Among these, I include the writings of (retd.) Major General Mick Ryan who seems comfortable calling a spade a spade- even if it contradicts the accepted Western narrative. But the scribbles of certain tabloid journalists are read for amusement only or to gain some inkling of the future propaganda assaults.
Later you wrote-
2 “Then again, your self-identified propensity of redaction and omission, means that your grasp of past events will be somewhat skewed. For example, Russia’s losses in the early years of WW2 were partially self-inflicted, principally as a result of Stalin’s paranoid interference with the Red Army, however much the revisionists and rehabilitators, often found posting here, would like. As for Ukraine being used as a springboard for an invasion of Russia, seriously. The only way the Western power cartel successfully sold the operation to their, largely I’ll-informed, populaces was by plausible projection, somehow I don’t think an invasion of Russia could be shielded by their media, however mendacious and loyally servile the court-stenographers were.”
This is mainly blather Milites. How have I self-identified in favour of redaction and omissions? Please elaborate.
In so far as early large Russian losses after the start of Barbarossa can rightly be attributed to Stalin’s paranoia as consequence of his having purged a great number of senior officers, I do not have any dispute with you there. Indeed, my “selected reading list” informed me of this years ago- among other mistakes of Stalin and the general Soviet administration.
I could go on but will close here by noting that I did ask you earlier to provide me with some relevant accessible histories to balance the opinions of my “selected list.” You seem to have overlooked this request.
Till next time-

Posted by: BARRELBLACK | Jan 29 2024 7:04 utc | 71

Posted by: James M. | Jan 29 2024 7:11 utc | 71
“it won’t be long now.”
Sure, Three days since the attack, any hour now. LOL

Posted by: Membrum Virile | Jan 29 2024 7:20 utc | 73

Sure, Three days since the attack, any hour now. LOL
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Jan 29 2024 7:20 utc | 72
Come back in a few months and we’ll talk. What attack are you talking about? The Ukraine line has been pushed back for several weeks now.

Posted by: James M. | Jan 29 2024 9:44 utc | 75

Sure, Three days since the attack, any hour now. LOL
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Jan 29 2024 7:20 utc | 72
three days, how american general mark milley got the propaganda rolling and stupid people repeat it to this day.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Jan 29 2024 9:58 utc | 77

https://t.me/olegtsarov/10240

The Washington Post and others write that Ukraine is moving to a defense strategy and is not planning any offensive operations in 2024. All efforts will be aimed at building a defense line.
I talk to the military. They share observations of how Kherson is being made into a fortress city before their eyes. Concrete trucks are constantly arriving, they don’t spare concrete, they pour out fortifications. I found out where concrete is delivered from – mainly from the Nikolaev region. Sometimes from Odessa.
The situation is the same on all other fronts. The APUs dig into the ground and are heavily concreted.
Obviously, such a grandiose construction requires a lot of concrete, and concrete requires a lot of cement. Cement plants are complex, expensive to manufacture and construct, and energy-intensive. In Ukraine they can be counted on one hand. In conditions of trench warfare, having your own cement in the required quantities becomes of utmost importance. If these plants are taken out of commission, this will seriously complicate the possibility of constructing protective structures for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The list of factories and their addresses is publicly available, you can see here.
If you let the APU dig in properly, it will be very difficult to pick them out.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 29 2024 11:06 utc | 79

Re: SLO mo war and attrition
In general I agree that the slow pace of this war favors Russia, for several reasons. Probably the number one reason is that the West is impatient, and lacks the industrial capacity to keep up.
But, there are advantages to moving fast. A rapid breakthrough can result in a large number of abandoned equipment, such as Bradley’s and patriots which could be seized for future use of not PR effect.
Possibly the more advanced stuff has remote kill capabilities, but it could still be reverse engineered or studied for future reference.
Going slow leaves the enemy time for an orderly retreat, sabotaging equipment so the enemy can’t use it.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 29 2024 12:27 utc | 81

Pathetic. The chicken little freaking out, desperately searching for a fig leaf, to remain relevant.
Active defence by the Ukrops? Building trenches and fortresses! But..but….That was always their plan
Build massive fortifications in ,Azovstal, Bakhmut , Avdeevka.
Goad the Russians into attacking – to defend the Russian speaking Ukranian civilians – ‘they have a red line , no natzo membership for ukropia ‘
It was always that plan , developed over decades. By the Great Gamers, the Natzios of the Pentagon, State Dept and the western imperial deepstate – hoping to create a balkanisation of the RF! A final plan that surpasses Napoleon and Hitlers failures.
Putin and co knew , they held back and built! They established relationships, they weren’t going to survive alone and needed friends. They had to put skin in the game to get those friends. It took a good 3 decades.
All came to fruition. The self worshipping pretend geniuses of the Waste now run around like sleepwalkers waking up in their pj’s in the street. Or even naked!
Running around trying to hide their shame. Like god catching Adam and Eve after sinning!
Bargaining, repositioning, attempting to remain relevant.
Pathetic. We aren’t really your enemies. It’s China we hate. Err Uighers err Dalai Lama err..Taiwan!
Or, we love China it’s Russia that’s evil. Tartars! Georgians! Poor little Nazi Banderites …err Gas!!
Quick , quick won’t somebody be cast some shadow upon our losses, our bare arses revealed instead of the finest , most advanced, technological , most expensive clothes we strutted about in as the Emperors.
Ahh here comes some shadow puppetry – PATHETIC.

Posted by: DunGroanin | Jan 29 2024 12:37 utc | 83

Posted by: SOS | Jan 29 2024 12:48 utc | 84
Most likely ‘rump Ukraine’ will basically consist of:
-foreign mercs as a fighting force
-the society will be completely totalitarian, education will be mostly Nato/Azov controlled nationalism ‘Muscovite bad, Ukrainians built the pyramids and conquered the galaxy’ (there are already videos of right sector taking over schools in west Ukraine)
-a new enemy nation whose sole identity is based on hating Russia will be bred
-a completely manufactured figurehead by the media, mostly for the purposes of keeping up the illusion for western audience of a ‘brave and independent Ukraine’
So that must be isolated or completely destroyed. In fact it might be preferable so Poland takes over the entire western Ukraine, which will solve the nazi Ukraine problem for good, as it will be Poles problem. Poland will not change their culture to Ukrainian nationalism, Ukraine will dissolve over time into its neighbors. Hungary and Romania take their share and everything back to ‘normal’.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 29 2024 12:59 utc | 85

Down south and barflies- how legitimate is that telegram channel legitimniy?
Posted by: comrade simba | Jan 28 2024 18:02 utc | 28

Please tell me what exactly is a “legitimate source” during a war?
“The first casualty of war is the truth”
Information is a weapons of war. No one is going to know the full story of this war until all the participants are dead and all the archives are opened. The masses must not lose faith and reputations have to be upheld after all.
Probably the most interesting aspects of following a major war in real time is watching the information war roll out. It’s fun figuring out who are the agents of propaganda … either knowingly or otherwise … and who are the victims.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jan 29 2024 13:12 utc | 87

@ Posted by: marcjf | Jan 29 2024 8:24 utc | 74
Very interesting comments.
Of course several things cannot be accounted for by pure formulas.
The emergence of new weapons. At the start of the conflict, quad copter drones were basically still toys, little used and self supplied. Now they are the workhorse along nearly every area of the 1000 km front. Simply because they are quiet, cheap, easy to train, the operator can be out of shape and maybe missing a leg, etc. Large amounts of munitions are not required, as in large artillery barrages.
The depletion of weapons. At the start, the man-pads for aircraft, and anti-tank for ground vehicles, shoulder fired were the “game changers”. Those have decreased in qty and use as they have been used up, and their limitations have been revealed, along with their requirements for training, which use actual rounds at some point.
The reduction of air defense. Easy to recognize for those who are paying attention, but many have only looked at the deep strike implications. At some point, a large attack will remove – occupy the ADA and paratroopers will be delivered to critical behind the line points. It may have already happened. For Solidar capture, it did happen (very short distances) which no one seems to remember.
Deep Strike ratio. There may be a formula for that, but realistically, Russia is winning that aspect 500 to 1. The west has found that supplying the weapons for this aspect is expensive, and long due to training and logistics. The original Tocha-U missiles in Ukraine were not accurate enough,and have been used up. Thus Ukraine has been behind from the start, and can never catch up.

Posted by: BroncoBilly | Jan 29 2024 13:40 utc | 89

In my opinion the situation of the UAF is parlous. It may number c 700,000 men still (see recent Russian claims) but its actual fighting strength is probably less than 200,000
Posted by: marcjf | Jan 29 2024 8:24 utc | 74
The +600k number were total rotated troops or how that thing is called. They’re basically training in Donbass as many soldiers as they can, while the smo is kept on the lowest strength possible. As you said, the actual fighting number must be much less, I doubt it’s even 200k.

Posted by: rk | Jan 29 2024 15:45 utc | 91

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 29 2024 5:41 utc | 67
>Thus most killed Ukrainians are a loss for Russia too. The number of actual Banderite Galicians is small in total, and they deliberately prefer to stay in the rear, so it is not at all clear how much they are being attrited.
The sad truth is that casualties in all wars are mostly poor and less intelligent strata of society. That was true for USA in Vietnam, when university students were exempted from conscription and universities allowed unlimited time to graduate, it’s currently true in Russia, where again university graduates are exempt, it’s true in Ukraine. Rich man’s wars are fought with poor men’s blood.
Officers in all militaries are higher quality men but militaries are typically careful not to lose officers in large numbers. Lots of reports of Ukrainian officers giving their troops final orders to hold down the fort at all costs then skedaddling away to safety themselves. Ukraine will thus have no shortage of irresponsible intelligent scoundrels in the future, if these reports are true, just a shortage of average men who obey orders and aren’t irresponsible scoundrels.
Also, most of what distinguishes humans from apes is on the X chromosome. Women have two X, whereas men have just one X plus a tiny Y which carries little information. Women blend Xs, so bad in one X offset by good in the other, whereas men expose their single X entirely, for good or bad. Which is why men’s bell curve is flattened: more geniuses, more idiots among men. For sake of gene pool, best to let women refuse to breed with lower 50% of men. Wealth and poverty are obviously not perfect measures of generic fitness, but they aren’t worthless. In other words, it’s mostly less valuable men dying in war, on both sides. (Russian Storm Z convict assault troops are best example of this, obviously.)
What really destroys society’s gene pool is when high quality women refuse to breed, and this is happening everywhere. Not sure how to solve this problem.
Otherwise, all the manpower losses of this war can be recovered in a single generation, and even 1 million is small by historical standards, plus raw manpower less important with advent of AI. What really matters is quantity of top engineerers and scientists, and neither Ukraine or Russia is losing these.

Posted by: anonposter | Jan 29 2024 16:41 utc | 93

Reliable reports the ‘Narcofuhrer’ Zelesnky has removed Zaluzhny as ‘commander’ of the UAF.
More ‘winning’ amirite?

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 29 2024 17:26 utc | 95

Predictably, ‘baby Hitler’ Budanov has been installed as replacement. The terrorist coordinator and general shit talking fool. Someone must find him more amenable to their purposes.
That is, maintain this grotesque spectacle to the literal last Ukrainian.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 29 2024 17:42 utc | 97

Posted by: anon2020 | Jan 29 2024 15:25 utc | 90
Google maps currently dates it’s sat view of Starokonstantinov airbase as “2024”. You can see some of the hardened shelters already have “holes” in them as well as a large block of something burned to the ground.
I doubt very much that the Ukrainians would keep the few aircraft they have left in such an obvious location. They may fly into Starokonstantinov airbase for fuel and armaments prior to a mission but I suspect they keep their aircraft dispersed and move them often.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jan 29 2024 17:51 utc | 99