Ukraine Open Thread 2024-029
Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Posted by b on January 26, 2024 at 15:25 UTC | Permalink
next page »The Russians are increasingly using drones with thermal imaging cameras to drop grenades night, hell, it looks like they'll soon have to move only underground.
https://lostarmour.info/news/sbrosy-vog25ru-5454
Posted by: Psycho | Jan 26 2024 15:55 utc | 2
By VIPS ”Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity”
”To Biden : Avoiding a 3rd world war”
https://www.antiwar.com/blog/2024/01/25/to-biden-avoiding-a-third-world-war/
Posted by: FromFrance | Jan 26 2024 16:02 utc | 3
Of course that is the charitable interpretation, which grants the "we are stalling for time" excuse to the pathetic displays of weakness observed in the last two years.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 26 2024 15:47 utc | 1
Paraphrasing "Russia is never as strong as she looks to pro russian commentators; Russia is never as weak as she looks to westerners."
As for good ole Strelkov, the Prigozin saga might offer a clue I think....
On a slighty unrelated note, executing people left and right did no yield stellar military performances in the summer of 41' and for quite a while after.
Posted by: Satepestage | Jan 26 2024 16:08 utc | 4
Reading the Guardian comments is like being on another planet. They're talking about Russia invading the UK like its plausible and how evil Putin is, every single discredited nonsense put out by the ISW and their ilk and...its so completely insane. It really shows the power of repeating lies convincingly. When the truth intrudes expect massive mental health crises.
It's terrifying how easily misled humans are. The internet has given people an inflated opinion of their own capacities and spawned a monoculture. Journalism has become stenography.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 26 2024 16:10 utc | 5
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (for the period from January 20 to January 26, 2024)
In the period from January 20 to January 26 of this year, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out 13 group strikes with high-precision long-range weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles against objects of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine that produced unmanned boats, ammunition, missiles and their components. In addition, arsenals, military airfield infrastructure, fuel bases and temporary locations of foreign mercenaries were affected.
The aim of the strikes has been achieved. All designated facilities were hit.
During the week, in the Kupyansk direction, units of the Western Group of Troops liberated the settlement of Krakhmalnoye in the Kharkiv region and improved the situation along the front edge in some areas.
43 enemy attacks were repelled in cooperation with aviation and artillery. Fire damage was inflicted on clusters of manpower and equipment of the 68th Jaeger, 25th, 30th, 32nd, 43rd, 57th, 60th, 66th mechanized, as well as the 25th Airborne brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the 1st Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine in in the districts of the settlements of Makeyevka of the Luhansk People's Republic, Berestove, Sinkovka of the Kharkiv region and Terny of the Donetsk People's Republic.
The enemy lost over 740 soldiers, seven tanks, seven armored combat vehicles, 18 vehicles and 14 field artillery pieces
In the Krasnolimansk direction, as a result of the active actions of the units of the Center group of forces, more advantageous lines and positions are occupied. 17 enemy attacks were repelled.
Air strikes, artillery fire and heavy flamethrower systems defeated the formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard of Ukraine in the areas of settlements, as well as the Serebryansk forestry.
The enemy's losses amounted to over 1,570 soldiers killed and wounded, seven tanks, 25 armored combat vehicles, 52 vehicles and nine field artillery guns.
In the Donetsk direction, the skilful actions of the units of the "Southern" grouping of troops improved the position along the front edge and repelled 12 enemy attacks.
The manpower and equipment of the 22nd, 24th, 28th, 42nd, 58th, 92nd, 93rd mechanized, 81st airmobile, as well as the 5th assault brigades were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Andreevka, Belogorovka, Grigorovka, Kleshcheyevka, Kurdyumovka, Mayorsk and Chas Yar of the Donetsk People's Republic.
The enemy lost more than 1960 soldiers killed and wounded, 19 tanks, of which one was Leopard, 22 armored combat vehicles, 56 vehicles, four multiple rocket launchers, including MLRS, HIMARS and two Grad, as well as 27 field artillery guns.
In the South Donetsk direction, coordinated actions of units of the Vostok group of forces defeated units of the 31st, 72nd mechanized, 79th airborne assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as the 105th and 127th air defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Rovnopol, Paraskovievka, Novomikhailovka, Staromayorskoye of the Donetsk People's Republic and The shelter of the Zaporozhye region.
The losses of the Armed Forces amounted to up to 745 military personnel, a tank, two armored combat vehicles, 23 vehicles and 14 field artillery guns.
In the Zaporozhye area, the active defense of Russian troops units and systematic fire action defeated the formations of the 33rd, 65th, 117th, 118th mechanized and 128th mountain assault brigades, as well as the 112th air defense brigade in the areas of the settlements of Workino, Verbovoye, Nesteryanka and Pyatikhatki of the Zaporozhye region.
The enemy lost more than 450 soldiers, three tanks, four armored combat vehicles, 17 vehicles and 11 field artillery pieces.
In the Kherson direction, the preemptive actions of Russian troops in cooperation with aviation and artillery inflicted fire damage on units of the 35th, 36th, 38th Marine brigades, as well as the 121st, 123rd, 126th air defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Zolotaya Balka, Mikhaylovka, Tyaginka, Zmievka and Stanislav of the Kherson region.
The enemy's losses amounted to over 335 military personnel, 23 vehicles, two MLRS Grad combat vehicles and eight field artillery guns.
During the week, 35 Ukrainian servicemen surrendered, 16 of them in the Krasnolimansk direction.
Over the past week, four anti-aircraft missile launchers have been hit by tactical aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, missile forces and artillery of military groups, including two Patriot missile systems manufactured in the United States, SAMP-T manufactured in France, IRIS-T manufactured in Germany and three radar stations for them, as well as the radar of the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system and six field ammunition depots of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
During the week, aviation and air defense equipment shot down a Su-25 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force, destroyed six Storm Shadow cruise missiles, four Tochka-U tactical missiles, 28 HIMARS and Vampire multiple launch rocket systems, as well as 361 unmanned aerial vehicles.
In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 568 aircraft, 265 helicopters, 11255 unmanned aerial vehicles, 455 anti-aircraft missile systems, 14,800 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,210 multiple rocket launchers, 7871 field artillery and mortars, as well as 17,891 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed.
Posted by: rumod report | Jan 26 2024 16:14 utc | 6
So basically Russia isn't ready for total war yet because despite the loud proclamations, while the key systems do exist, they don't exist in a state of proper full deployment. 1.
The Russian Federation is far more prepared for total war, as you put it, than their NATO and Maerican would-be adversaries. If nothing else the Ukraine misadventure has revealed the complete disparity in capacities. NATO is a paper tiger. Maerica couldn't fight just Russia today, let alone an alliance of Russia China Iran. The strutting fool US generals and pompous proclamations of NATO politicians are all devices to mask a deep understanding of their own utter inferiority.
I swear I could write a bot to predict your takes. You use a perfectly predictable angle each time. Just sayin'
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 26 2024 16:15 utc | 7
For example, it was the US who just tried, and failed, to successfully launch one of their Minutemen ICBMs. It had to ditch in the sea. This display was intended as a 'show of force' after Russias submarine based ICBM test. Like so many things Western these days, it failed spectacularly.
How's that groupthink working out for Maerica and her allies, anyway? It seems they no longer look for contrarian views, preferring yes men and true believers. Idiots writ large.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 26 2024 16:18 utc | 8
@1 it’s clear as day, from all available evidence over the past 2 years, that Putin is not trying to win the war in the sense or marching into Odessa or Kyiv, he is trying to end the war, get this nightmare Ofer with.
The Russian military leadership got high on their own supply pre-SMO, “world’s second military”, Putin rolled the dice expecting a quick Ukrainian government collapse followed by a negotiated settlement. It didn’t work out, the Russian military got exposed as very much not ready for prime time, and everything since then has been damage mitigation on the part of Putin, and looking for a way out that would still be some sort of victory. He is looking for a deal, not a total victory. Current line of control, no Nato but yes to EU, some fig leaf protections for the status of the Russian language. That’s what all Russian moves are about, energy infrastructure strikes last winter, military attrition in 2023, no strikes on Zelenskyy, it’s all about forcing Ukraine to agree to s deal.
Ukraine also got high on their initial success and has been refusing, hoping for their own total victory. Despite the “drop in western support”, Russia has had almost no success in Adveevka, it would take them 500 years at this pace to get to the Dnepr.
There is this kabuki dance of Putin trying to goad the Ukrainians to negotiate without going so far as triggering further western escalation, the West tiring of the war but looking for a stalemate, not a loss. Ukraine pushing everyone’s buttons to try to blow everything up. The West being amazed at Putin’s refusal to enforce any red lines at all, and occasionally the more aggressive elements of it (the UK, Poland/balts, neocons in the USA) escalating to the next step saying “see the Russians won’t do anything”
Posted by: Jabuta | Jan 26 2024 16:28 utc | 9
The fridges have proven a trusty reserve, after the washing machines have done real yeoman's work.
When the RF gets to kettles, we the Ukrs are due for mopping up.
The toasters etc of course remain on standby to swat any ramshackle NATO force that gets funny ideas.
Or at least that's what the British UN horses**ter & possible fornicator, would have us believe.
Posted by: Urban Fox | Jan 26 2024 16:29 utc | 10
So basically Russia isn't ready for total war yet because despite the loud proclamations, while the key systems do exist, they don't exist in a state of proper full deployment. 1.
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Note on: Russia is not ready yet?
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Question: When has a country at war or a country that felt threatened ever openly presented its weaknesses and strengths?
Or so that so-called analysts could draw conclusions from it??
True, NEVER!
Not even satellites can see what is happening in the deep east of Russia.
at least not in the way that secret services would like.
We're talking about the largest country in the world where YOU can't travel freely WITHOUT being watched everywhere.
Don't forget, Putin inherited the best surveillance apparatus in the world, at least as far as such a large country is concerned!
They always found us truck drivers when we deviated from the prescribed route or didn't drive past the next observation point within the time limit. And I was traveling deep into Russia.
But no matter, see above...which minister is proclaiming truths about such a topic? That’s right, NO ONE!
So...don't get too excited about what the minister said or DIDN'T say!
I spent my army time in Russia for about 12 years and saw ammunition depots underground that resembled a small town.
Posted by: ossi | Jan 26 2024 16:40 utc | 11
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 26 2024 15:47 utc | 1
Compared to US and its Minuteman missiles which are reportedly now unserviceable and run an increasing risk of malfunctioning, the Russian missiles are in a pretty decent shape. The US ICBM program might be finished sometime next decade if ever, considering it has large cost overruns already.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 26 2024 16:49 utc | 12
shаdοwbanned | Jan 26 2024 15:47 utc | 1
I hear clown music.
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Jan 26 2024 16:52 utc | 13
it’s clear as day, from all available evidence over the past 2 years, that Putin is not trying to win the war in the sense or marching into Odessa or Kyiv, he is trying to end the war, get this nightmare Ofer with.
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Well I agree with them, except for Odessa!
If Odessa comes under NATO control in some form, it would become a US base.
Odessa Ur Russian city Access to the Black Sea is a declared goal for Putin!
Poland and Hungary can then take the rest of Ukraine, the Nazis there and possible acts of sabotage from these areas are then an EU or NATO problem.
And don't forget one thing: Putin has to take Odessa and Trans-Iria...there is still the largest ammunition depot in Europe that will NEVER fall into the wrong hands
.
Tip
Always see everything in context, who, where, why
Posted by: ossi | Jan 26 2024 17:04 utc | 14
"Ukraine also got high on their initial success..."
Posted by: Jabuta | Jan 26 2024 16:28 utc | 9
Kindly please describe "Ukraine's initial success" in the SMO I must have missed that bit.
@1 it’s clear as day, from all available evidence over the past 2 years, that Putin is not trying to win the war in the sense or marching into Odessa or Kyiv, he is trying to end the war, get this nightmare Ofer with.Posted by: Jabuta | Jan 26 2024 16:28 utc | 9
Putin no longer has a choice on this. It is existential now, and nothing short of erasing the Ukrainian state from the map and from the history book will suffice as a war objective. The alternative is the slow disintegration of Russia, first in terms of physical infrastructure under constant missile and drone attacks, then politically too.
If Putin and other Russian elites are deluded enough to think otherwise, they need to be urgently replaced with more realistic people.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 26 2024 17:13 utc | 16
Ukraine Weekly Update: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-6be
It's been an incredible week and away from Ukraine the ruling by the ICJ could turn out to be a truly historical event.
Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Jan 26 2024 17:13 utc | 17
Posted by: Passerby | Jan 26 2024 10:41 utc | 266
thats interessting --- ukraine buys russian oil, gas -- and finances russia's war with it ?!?
Posted by: ghiwen | Jan 26 2024 9:56 utc | 260Correction. The US and the EU give money to Ukraine; and Ukraine gives the money to Russia in return for oil and gas. IIRC, the contract for Russia to supply Ukraine with gas runs to end 2024.
Once the contract runs out, it's your problem. More likely than not, Brussels will end up buying US gas, and supplying Ukraine with gas via Poland through the old Soviet pipeline system. Maybe Ukraine will pay its gas bills; maybe not.
.....
Why did you defend shadowbanned -- the CIPSO agent ; How do you know what he meant ?
i would think my bold Formatting make it quite clear that this CIPSO... drools something together
as for the first half of your comment ---> such a crap !!!
1. the mentioned contract is about TRANSIT to EUROPE
ukr. get !!! money from russia ( Transit fees according to the ship-or-pay clause )
2. "...supplying Ukraine with gas via Poland through the old Soviet pipeline system ..."
This should be difficult, as these connections are still designated as projects, at least in 2021 ( the old lines are not considered sufficient )
3. At least Slovakia and above all Austria are still dependent on this transit ( additional see 2. )
Posted by: ghiwen | Jan 26 2024 17:14 utc | 18
Remember the US General Antonio Aguto that was sent to Ukraine to assist/lead Ukranian forces on dec. 12. Have anybody heard of or from him lately?
https://www.stripes.com/branches/army/2023-12-12/army-general-ukraine-eucom-12335117.html
If Austin was in Kiev this man would be with him.
And if these gentlemen was in Kiev there would be some high ranking Ukranian military personell present.
Anybody seen Budenov or Zalnutzy lately?
Nato claims that Austin was present at the Nato meeting Jan 23, via video link???
So anybody seen these guys lately?
Posted by: Paul from Norway | Jan 26 2024 17:19 utc | 19
Proves what I said to Odessa, Odessa must never remain under Ukrainian power..
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According to Scott Ritter, who has just returned from Russia and was talking to Garland Nixon, the kill ratio on the battlefronts is now 20-1 in favour of the Russians, which is staggering. He said that the Russians admitted 3,000 dead in the battle for Avdeevka but they also claimed to have killed 20,000 Ukrainians. At this rate, it may not be very long before the Ukrainian army collapses through lack of manpower. Scott also revealed that the Russians have two armies on the sidelines in Ukraine that have not yet been committed to the battle. He also said that some military people he had spoken to were optimistic that the war could end by September. These people also believe that Ukraine cannot be allowed access to the Black Sea in the future, so that Odessa will have to be secured as far as Transnistria, along with everything east of the Dnieper, including Kharkov. The Ritter/Nixon video can be seen here. It’s over an hour long but is well worth a watch.
Posted by: ossi | Jan 26 2024 17:23 utc | 20
The Russian Federation is far more prepared for total war, as you put it, than their NATO and Maerican would-be adversaries. If nothing else the Ukraine misadventure has revealed the complete disparity in capacities. NATO is a paper tiger. Maerica couldn't fight just Russia today, let alone an alliance of Russia China Iran. The strutting fool US generals and pompous proclamations of NATO politicians are all devices to mask a deep understanding of their own utter inferiority.Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 26 2024 16:15 utc | 7
=>
For example, it was the US who just tried, and failed, to successfully launch one of their Minutemen ICBMs. It had to ditch in the sea. This display was intended as a 'show of force' after Russias submarine based ICBM test. Like so many things Western these days, it failed spectacularly.Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 26 2024 16:18 utc | 8
=>
Compared to US and its Minuteman missiles which are reportedly now unserviceable and run an increasing risk of malfunctioning, the Russian missiles are in a pretty decent shape. The US ICBM program might be finished sometime next decade if ever, considering it has large cost overruns already.Posted by: unimperator | Jan 26 2024 16:49 utc | 12
That's not how it works.
The US has ~450 ICBM silos. Even if two thirds of those don't work, there are still 150 that will fly. Then there are the SSBNs, the ALCMs and the ground launched Tomahawks.
The way this has to work is something like this:
1) Disable early warning systems with anti-satellite weapons and hypersonics, or something else (obviously the technical details here are not public)
2) Simultaneously wipe out the ICBMs silos before they can launch, and for this presumably you need a lot of Sarmats -- it is 450 silos, which will take a couple dozen Sarmats with Avangards.
3) Wipe out NATO second strike capabilities in Europe with some combination of shorter-range hypersonics and ballistic missiles
4) I don't know what the plan is for the SSBNs. NATO has twice the number of those that Russia has. If there is a solution to it, quite likely the Chinese would have to join the battle too
5) Then you need to repel whatever second strike is launched after that. For that you need S-500s, A-235s, etc., in sufficiently large numbers.
All of which means that if Sarmats and S-500s are only being deployed this year, Russia is not ready.
The objective is to survive as much as possible, you don't care if the other side is ready to survive or not, you only care about their ability to hurt you.
And again, all of this assumes that in the Kremlin they are not planning the terms of surrender. It is all a moot discussion if they are.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 26 2024 17:24 utc | 21
Reading the Guardian comments is like being on another planet. They're talking about Russia invading the UK like its plausible and how evil Putin is, every single discredited nonsense put out by the ISW and their ilk and...its so completely insane. It really shows the power of repeating lies convincingly. When the truth intrudes expect massive mental health crises.Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 26 2024 16:10 utc | 5
It isn't currently possible, but there is a grain of truth to it.
Is Russia ever going to be safe as long as the UK exists? How many major wars did the UK instigate or openly fought against Russia? This one is at least round 5. Most of the many Russian catastrophes in the last couple centuries have been the result of such actions. How much has the country been set back by those?
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 26 2024 17:35 utc | 22
https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/440
The formation of the Texas People's Republic is becoming more and more real. What I wrote about at the end of the year before last in a humorous prediction.The American administration is demonstrating a complete inability to cope with the migration crisis that has flared up in one of the largest US states. Its governor didn’t give a damn about the White House’s position with the frail old man Biden and began restoring the barbed wire fences. Anything to protect ourselves from the influx of migrants who are uncontrollably crossing the southern border. Another striking example of the weakening of US hegemony, which is happening from within as a result of the actions of the Americans themselves.
Official Washington, which so enthusiastically supports the Kyiv neo-Nazis and, it seems, no longer notices anything else, has shown itself to be completely impotent in matters of domestic policy. The scholastic decisions of the Supreme Court that migration issues are only the responsibility of the federal government, and not the state, are divorced from reality. These same authorities, due to their inaction, can finally drive the population of Texas, who is already seriously thinking about secession, to the brink of exasperation. History knows of cases when individual states tried to break away from the United States of America and form a confederation. All this led to a bloody civil war that claimed the lives of thousands and thousands of people.
One way or another, America may face an insoluble constitutional crisis and plunge into the abyss of a new, perhaps even more destructive civil confrontation for a long time. And the Western world will look with bated breath at the American mess. However, that's their problem.And although the turmoil in the United States contains significant risks for global stability, the rest of the world, crunching popcorn, is watching the attack of the bad disease of Pindostan, not without gloating.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 26 2024 17:35 utc | 23
Posted by: ossi | Jan 26 2024 17:23 utc | 20
Judging by reports, it seems FPV drones are number one problem, for which there is no solution. While both sides have them, denying their use and defending from them is sketchy.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 26 2024 17:35 utc | 24
4) I don't know what the plan is for the SSBNs. NATO has twice the number of those that Russia has. If there is a solution to it, quite likely the Chinese would have to join the battle too.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 26 2024 17:24 utc | 21
No chinese magic wand, Type 95s have just started coming off the line and complex naval armaments are not mastered overnight. Western nuclear deterrent is likely safe and will remain so for quite some time.
Posted by: Satepestage | Jan 26 2024 17:40 utc | 25
On a slighty unrelated note, executing people left and right did no yield stellar military performances in the summer of 41' and for quite a while after.
Posted by: Satepestage | Jan 26 2024 16:08 utc | 4
It certainly set the atmosphere for not another step back. After rolling across all of Europe with ease, it was the soviets who at great cost brought Nazi Germany to a stop, tuned the tide and raised their flag over the Reichstag. It was the foundation of the merit based military of todays Russia.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 26 2024 17:42 utc | 26
According to Scott Ritter, who has just returned from Russia and was talking to Garland Nixon, the kill ratio on the battlefronts is now 20-1 in favour of the Russians, which is staggering.Posted by: ossi | Jan 26 2024 17:23 utc | 20
I'm sure Ritter said it very loudly, and very energetically, which means it must be true.
Posted by: Mike314159 | Jan 26 2024 17:51 utc | 27
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 26 2024 17:35 utc | 22
Quite a few British lives were lost keeping the Arctic convoys open. As for the ‘wars instigated’ without any historical context your allegations are simply inflammatory. Ironic, given these incendiary attitudes are proven to be catalytic, regarding the recent carnage in Ukraine, and other ongoing conflicts.
Posted by: Milites | Jan 26 2024 17:55 utc | 28
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 26 2024 17:24 utc | 21
You failed to mention the poseiden... which no one has a counter for....
the torpedo—a nuclear-powered underwater drone equipped with nuclear weapons—is designed to be launched from submarines.
MOSCOW, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Russia has produced the first set of Poseidon nuclear capable super torpedoes that are being developed for deployment on the Belgorod nuclear submarine, TASS reported on Monday, citing an unidentified defence source.Jan 16, 2023
but not surprised, you always see the glass half empty
Posted by: ctiger | Jan 26 2024 18:12 utc | 29
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Front #Summary for 26 Jan 2024 by 19:14⚡️🔹In #Kherson Direction, a real drone war is unfolding near #Krynki. Russia is actively using Lancets, an effective solution for counterbattery warfare. Some of the best drone operators are working on the #Kherson front, and the enemy is on a real hunt for them. Today our MLRS worked powerfully on the AFU positions on the left bank.
The AFU are sitting in basements, some are surrendering.🔹In the #Zaporozhye Direction, positional battles, and our forces are increasing their initiative. The tactics of small AFU groups remain ineffective. However, in some places the AFU has an advantage in artillery, speaking of "shell shortage", but they often produce more than ours. Their heavy "Baba Yaga" drones bombers also create a lot of problems for us.
🔹In #SouthDonetsk Direction, near #Vremyevka, our forces repelled an AFU attack in the forest belt and are disrupting rotations near #Staromayorskoye. Our artillery is working very closely at the #Donetsk border. Near #Novomikhaylovka, south of #Konstantinovka and north of #Vladimirovka, 12 AFU strongholds have been suppressed, but our troops are in no hurry to go in. The AFU are shelling their former positions to prevent our army from advancing.
🔹In #Donetsk Direction. our units, who have penetrated the AFU urban defence in the south of #Avdeyevka, have not yet managed to dislodge the AFU from an important area near the tram ring. The enemy is expectedly counterattacking. However, the AFU cannot turn the situation around. Our forces are more focused on holding their positions than on advancing towards the Khimik microdistrict. This is a high-rise development, an assault head on is fraught with heavy losses, so ours are carrying out a powerful artillery preparation. From #Avdeeevka there is a glow at night. They are gradually moving towards the Goluboye (Blue) Lake.
🔹In #Bakhmut Direction, in #Bogdanovka, our drone pilots hit several buildings where the AFU was located during the day. (⚠️Rybar reported a temporary retreat from the centre to the northern part) The assault on the heights beyond #Kleshcheyevka and the offensive from #Khromovo towards #Ivanovskoye (#Krasnoye) continues (⚠️with success, reaching its border).
🔹In #Svatovo Direction, on the #Seversk front, intensive fighting is going on south of #Belogorovka, ours have occupied the grey zone along the right bank of the #Seversky Donets, the AFU have withdrawn to #Grigorovka. Soon, our army will cut the supply between both villages, and then the AFU will be forced to withdraw from #Belogorovka. Now our forces are hitting with artillery and FPV on the ground, and the assault infantry is active in the underground tunnels of the industrial zone, using light infantry flamethrowers. From #Kupyansk sector, it is reported about the crisis in the AFU ammo supply. From the data that our scouts have received, it follows that personnel losses are up to 60%, and in some places there is no supply at all. This is the result of the work of our aviation and artillery. The front is generally standing.
☠️On 24 January, the AFU hit a drone operators' training ground in the #DPR with HIMARS, as has become known. Near #Ilovaysk "Sudoplatov" took from cadets an exam on FPV-drone control. More than 20 people are reported dead. A great loss.
https://t.me/sitreports/21841
Posted by: Down South | Jan 26 2024 18:13 utc | 30
Always look at the magicians other hand.
The US has been saying loudly, and in the direction of the outthrust microphones and waiting audience, that there is no money left, "alas, what can we do?". However, if Zaluzhny is pushed aside and Kiril Budanov takes over, the financing of the Ukrainians may take another route.
Budanov has been fingered as a CIA asset. He is touted as the replacement even though his military experience is limited. So if regular "gifts" to Ukraine, Ok'ed by the Senate stop, the CIA, which uses various "black holes" and underground means of financing could replace them. No Senate oversight, no political oversight of any sort, no more problems of interference.
If this happens the war will move more to sabotage and "special ops" directly in Russian territory.
***
The SMO can be considered as a way to "smoke out" NATO involvement. To show up the backers of The Ukes and then reduce their ability to wage war. (ie UK, France, Germany, Canada and uncle tom cobbley an' all). The CIA has been called the "Rothschilds private army", and is only nominally under US political control. ("Rothschilds" would be representing Banking and corporate interests in this case) So we may be seeing one of the principal sources of the conflict being visibly drawn in.
****
Note that the definition of winning a world war is to "eliminate their ability to wage war" as in WWII.
Posted by: Stonebird | Jan 26 2024 18:16 utc | 31
wait, so since when are Terrorists free from law enforcement? I mean jeah subversion is always a way of war but today also everyone uses smartphones - who doesnt is suspicious on its own and when a shadow army enters - who cares if they get killed en masse? And I mean really en masse
Posted by: Macpott | Jan 26 2024 18:23 utc | 32
Quite a few British lives were lost keeping the Arctic convoys open. As for the ‘wars instigated’ without any historical context your allegations are simply inflammatory. Ironic, given these incendiary attitudes are proven to be catalytic, regarding the recent carnage in Ukraine, and other ongoing conflicts.Posted by: Milites | Jan 26 2024 17:55 utc | 28
Which is why Churchill was planning how to attack the USSR before the Red Army had even taken Berlin (and who know what would have happened if he hadn't lost the election)?
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 26 2024 18:29 utc | 33
Posted by: Stonebird | Jan 26 2024 18:16 utc | 31
The Kharkov and Sumy borders have a high intensity of Russian spec ops forces, which basically pre-empts any possible sabotage directed across the border. The recent strikes on foreign merc bases in Kharkov and surroundings and disrupting AFU reserves also pre-empt sabotage ops. The purpose of AFU troops are to secure foothold on the border to enable those ops in Russia. If they can't secure a foothold on the border, then there will be no such ops.
That doesn't exclude that AFU has undercover 'refugees' in Russia who can do sabotage, they most certainly have. That is a problem with open society. I do think if Russia did what Nato wanted (take massive amount of territory in a short time) would have caused a multitude of larger partisan problems, because Nato's initial main plan was precisely 'partisan war'. We saw a mini-version of that during the Sumy/Kiev initial offensive. The ambushes were carefully planned, knowing which route RUAF convoys are coming etc. It hasn't been a factor after first 2 months and has denuded Nato of this planned primary advantage.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 26 2024 18:29 utc | 34
unimperator | Jan 26 2024 18:29 utc | 34
The main advantage I see with a CIA takeover, is that the financing goes "off the radar". So that popular sentiment does not correlate increasingly bad local conditions in the US, to the increasing sums spent on wars.
[email protected] only factor at the beginning of the SMO was there was no factor....much over hyped speculation.
As for Partisan war, the Ukraine got the Partisan war it wanted. All those rear hits, the Hilton Merc Hotels, the underground bunkers, the weapons hangers and warehouses good old partisans, passing info along to ......the Russians. Cue: Gonzalo Lira's laugh.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 26 2024 18:56 utc | 37
Putin: Il-76 was downed by US or French air defenses, experts to prove it by next week
https://tass.com/politics/1738007
"Most likely the strike was delivered by a US system Patriot system but even more likely by a French-made air-defense system."
Posted by: Thurl | Jan 26 2024 19:19 utc | 38
Putin: Il-76 was downed by US or French air defenses, experts to prove it by next week https://tass.com/politics/1738007 "Most likely the strike was delivered by a US system Patriot system but even more likely by a French-made air-defense system."Posted by: Thurl | Jan 26 2024 19:19 utc | 38
The exact phrasing matters:
"This incident should be either attributed to their poor [Air Defense] training or their incompetence of handling such systems," the Russian president said. "Most likely the strike was delivered by a US system Patriot system but even more likely by a French-made air-defense system."
In other words, they will take this one on the chin too.
We all know it wasn't poorly trained incompetent Ukrainians who pressed the button.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 26 2024 20:05 utc | 39
Which is why Churchill was planning how to attack the USSR before the Red Army had even taken Berlin (and who know what would have happened if he hadn't lost the election)?
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 26 2024 18:29 utc | 33
But you could have understood that throughout their history the Anglo-Saxon elite has always preferred a beautiful lie to an unpleasant truth. This is the wisdom of ancient democracies.
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Jan 26 2024 20:11 utc | 40
With their domestic policy distractions calendar this year quite full, the us will have a devil of a time juggling all it's belligerent actions and "commitments" internationally. I believe the uk is going to have to step up to the plate more often and push the nato/empire agenda a little bit more. If the Axis of Resistance and Russia can keep up the pressure on these assets, we may see a few more cracks open up to the delight of an appreciative RoW.
Posted by: bisfugged | Jan 26 2024 20:34 utc | 41
Posted by: bisfugged | Jan 26 2024 20:34 utc | 41
Israel logistics has diverted from Red Sea to through Gibraltar. Waiting to see a blockade from locations in North Africa, particularly from Algeria and/or Libya.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 26 2024 20:39 utc | 42
"Reading the Guardian comments is like being on another planet. They're talking about Russia invading the UK like its plausible"
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 26 2024 16:10 utc | 5
Most of the comments are planted by bots. As they know humans suffer from GROUPTHINK. That's not to say that most liberals are as dumb as a bag of spanners.
The middle class metropolitan liberals would be the first to leave the UK if war announced. Wars for them are for other people to fight.
Unionists would be the first to fight in Scotland for England. The rest of Scotland would rather fight England than Russia.
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jan 26 2024 20:58 utc | 43
The reason bots plant comments in the media is because they know humans act like this when they herd together.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jPi8o4_R-oc
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jan 26 2024 21:04 utc | 44
unimperator @ 42
You are correct, the latest Simplicious essay I just read states the blockade of Israel is the next step (phase 2) of the Axis of Resistance. As I mentioned, the us is in for a world of hurt- to their credibility and reputation this year as "all this" will ruin the empire considerably...
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/iranian-axis-grinds-down-us-will
Posted by: bisfugged | Jan 26 2024 22:12 utc | 45
Posted by: bisfugged | Jan 26 2024 22:12 utc | 45
US Navy has just effectively lost control of the Bab al-Mandab strait. Their destroyers were supposed to screen US cargo ships through the Strait, and they were forced to withdraw because they could not do that.
That means the following:
-US can't move stuff from European bases to Iraq and Syria through the Strait, significantly complicating supply of its bases in the Persian Gulf
-Since US forces in Syria and Iraq are supported from those bases, the significantly longer logistical tail will make it much harder to maintain occupation in Syria and Iraq, making withdraw all but inevitable at some point
-US and UK shipping companies are now forced out of the Strait, for good
-All this is a huge win for Iran and the axis of resistance
See Scott Ritter's recent video for details.
https://twitter.com/1860rm/status/1750992483410976841
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 26 2024 22:37 utc | 46
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 26 2024 18:29 utc | 33
Ah yes, Operation Unthinkable, again no historical context given, and no mention of the casus belli. Are you suggesting that Lend Lease was so finely managed that it perfectly balanced out the capabilities of both Eastern Front combatants, resulting in the attritional slog that destroyed Germany and severely weakened Russia.
Posted by: bisfugged | Jan 26 2024 20:34 utc | 41
I think you might find that the RoW are not a unitary block, are divided in their opinions and are mostly seeking to advance narrow, nationalistic agendas, by taking advantage of this window of weakness.
Posted by: Milites | Jan 26 2024 22:38 utc | 47
Salaam,the key systems may be still in the works good.Now shadowbanned@1- so what about "Satan" for example,is it any good at all,it's going to be "de-commissioned to be replaced by "samat",should push come to shoove,think Satan is capable enough!The Russ do have weapons right now that are just as capable to make the enemy lands glass.
Posted by: 4q8 | Jan 26 2024 22:44 utc | 48
Deputy Minister of Defense M. Krivoruchko, on the occasion of the Unified Day of receipt of military products, communicated a large number of figures on the execution of the state defense order for last year. Among this multitude, two figures, in my opinion, deserve the greatest attention: last year, the Navy received more than 7.7 thousand missiles of all kinds, from the well-deserved "Uranes" to the latest "Zircons", which will have no equivalent in the enemy for years to come, while the army received 4 thousand artillery systems and MLRS during the year.
The first of these figures is interesting because the total consumption of missiles by the fleet last year, according to a very rough estimate, was an order of magnitude lower than the production. The "Kalibras" were used not sparingly, but accurately - and if the situation had required it, their use could have been multiplied. Instead, the stocks were replenished very powerfully, not only because the situation did not require it, but also because life does not end tomorrow.
The second figure is a very large figure, which allows us to judge the entire current military construction, which started the day before yesterday in December. I think that a relatively small part of the new artillery equipment arrived at the front, and the rest went to supplement the newly formed units and formations in large numbers. Formations made with a view not so much to the final stage of clearance (although the same artillery divisions of the breakthrough will certainly play their role in this), but to everything that can happen in the next stage, if the enemy does not make the only reasonable decision to acquiesce on a large scale.
The plans for the year that has just begun, Mr. Krivoruchko said, are more important than those of last year and even more than those of the previous year. They are not comparable to the enemy's military-industrial weakness, which he has not even begun to remedy in two years - with the exception of aviation and ships, we will continue to surpass NATO in the production of almost all other areas, sometimes by several times, sometimes by an order of magnitude or more. Without the civilian sector of the economy, the standard of living and the development of the country will not suffer.
And I have the feeling that one of the objectives of this speech, which, I repeat, included dozens of figures, was to push the enemy to become aware of the reality on the basis of which he will have to make his decisions in his own time.
s---o-b----- posted 5 "comments", that is more than 10% of the current comments on this thread. Not only his agenda is clear and he does not contribute facts, but lies. Why have I to come here to read the same disinformation and the same propaganda as in the western corrupt medias? Now he will multiply his antirussian lies for the very simple reason that the ukronazi situation is worsening on all fronts.
Posted by: Naive | Jan 26 2024 22:54 utc | 49
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 26 2024 16:10 utc | 5
Have you noticed the inherent contradictions in the propaganda ?
Russia is poor, incompetent, running out of munitions & destined for failure.
And yet they're about to invade Poland, Germany, the UK and the Balkans at any moment.
Posted by: ryanggg | Jan 26 2024 23:08 utc | 50
British AS-90 howitzer blows its barrel, presumably in Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/YepAdam_/status/1750994145827553728
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 26 2024 23:22 utc | 51
There really is no need to talk such minute details with certain characters. Even vk and dare I say...... Steven hack....circe with Bernie sanders..are better conversationist.....
He will instantly shift topics with his sociopathic tendencies.
End his talks with rhetorical nonsense with a question? Like this?
There is no conclusion with such a mentally ill character. His knowledge on the readiness of icbm is not genuine as if he is responsible for any technical engineering or in charge of or in control of anything other than his chronic illness.
Posted by: Jason | Jan 26 2024 23:39 utc | 52
Yes, re: propaganda, sucking and blowing at the same time. It's not going to work. Or rather, it works until it doesn't.
The thing about dishonest analysts is they're unable to admit the flaws of 'their' side. My points about Maerican conflict readiness stand. I haven't opined directly about how the multiple fronts opening up are stretching Maerican command and control to their limit.
This is no 'window of weakness'. This is the strategic decline of the feted 'West'. Failure spiral, brought to you by the same financier assholes now contemplating a second round of nuclear chicken. I say this with no glee whatsoever, it is observation not boosterism..or as the kids say 'simping'. Ahem.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 26 2024 23:51 utc | 53
unimperator | Jan 26 2024 23:22 utc | 51
Old guns, likely old shells and old fuses. The joys of hand me downs. Everyone offloading out of date military junk in Ukraine.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 27 2024 0:08 utc | 54
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 27 2024 0:08 utc | 54
What junk? That's top of the line equipment, current Nato standard. Working as it was designed, lol.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 27 2024 0:15 utc | 55
Interesting times!
Western media from the "five eyes" since September 1939. Has been guilty of supplying 1% fact covered by 99% lies. Whilst presenting the nightly news at six pm.
Posted by: BadDealMotorsOn | Jan 27 2024 0:46 utc | 56
Strelkov was not only a coward who abandoned his post in a combat zone but also advocated for mass murder like most Nazis and Zionists.
4 years is too light a sentence for this excuse for a human being.
There appears to be some commentators that keep popping up (floaters, won't flush away) that have similarly criminal intents.
Posted by: Suresh | Jan 27 2024 0:48 utc | 57
Milites @ 47
Maybe not but they are definitely united in that glorious smirk that I'm sure is plastered over all their faces.
Posted by: bisfugged | Jan 27 2024 0:49 utc | 58
The Russ do have weapons right now that are just as capable to make the enemy lands glass.Posted by: 4q8 | Jan 26 2024 22:44 utc | 48
The issue is whether RU has first strike capability that is potent enough to allow it to disable the second strike to an extent that is survivable.
Also, the behavior of the West is such that I cannot exclude the possibility that whoever makes the decisions there thinks they in fact have a first-strike capability.
And they might well indeed do. Geography still matters, regardless of delivery capabilities. It's why the war started in the first place.
If they fire SRBMs and IRBMs from Finland, the Baltics, Ukraine, plus a large salvo of ground hugging ALCMs (we saw that they were able to hit the strategic aviation bases with those back in December 2022), plus depressed-trajectory SLBMs simultaneously from the Arctic and from the Indian Ocean, they may well take out command and control, the ICBM silos, the several SSBNs that camp in Murmansk by default, and most of the ICBM TELs, then hunt the other SSBNs out in the ocean and have enough GMDs to stop most of the rest, and only lose a few cities.
Who knows.
What the real balance of power is is all classified information, and it's quite possible that none of the players actually has a full understanding of it.
Us mere mortals certainly don't have access to that information, and we have to guess based on outwards behaviors.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 27 2024 0:59 utc | 59
Putin: “ "Most likely the strike was delivered by a US system Patriot system but even more likely by a French-made air-defense system."
So, the French had their “revenge”. And the core AUF had to watch as their guys were taken out. Months of negotiations. A planeload of guys they’d approved for return; presumably relatives on standby for the predicable PR victory return of loved ones.
Sacrificed for the French need for revenge.
With “friends” like the French….
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 27 2024 1:25 utc | 60
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 26 2024 17:35 utc | 23
Texas could solve its illegal immigrant problem in an instant by simply rejoining Mexico.
"Forget the Alamo!"
Posted by: ChatNPC | Jan 27 2024 1:28 utc | 61
But then why jail Strelkov and crack down on patriotic dissent?
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 26 2024 15:47 utc | 1
#######################
There is no room for "patriotic dissent" during the war.
Strelkov knows this. Which makes one wonder why he is pushing this until he is incarcerated. Not only won't he make a change in the status quo, most Russians will see him as a traitor. None of which accomplishes his supposed goal of changing state policy.
If I could talk to him, I'd tell him, "Well done, sir. You have played yourself."
One wonders sometimes if bitterness and self-sabotage are all some people have to hang on to.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 27 2024 1:54 utc | 62
Some videos for today.
Russian drones continue pounding enemy positions near the DPR’s Artemovsk:
https://rutube.ru/video/0d9afe5625397eb34bfd0d766587d41e/
Russian ATGM strike:
https://rutube.ru/video/d632812498e6378f9e8fd2c98cda839d/
Russian Grad launcher pounds enemy position in forest:
https://rutube.ru/video/1cb4dbec723edaeff59ccc8a639aa131/
Russian Lancet destroys enemy howitzer:
https://rutube.ru/video/eed1d1630f54630a3d35ac2406475546/
Russian modernized T-80 tanks in action on the southern DPR front:
https://rutube.ru/video/66786675dd431b831248a17296baebe4/
Posted by: Nate | Jan 27 2024 2:29 utc | 63
Posted by: Suresh | Jan 27 2024 0:48 utc | 57
Suresh, shut the fuck up, pathetic POS
Posted by: pesec | Jan 27 2024 2:49 utc | 64
"..How many major wars did the UK instigate or openly fought against Russia?.."
shаdοwbanned | Jan 26 2024 17:35 utc | 22
Very few. Britain and Russia have generally been allied in war. There have been exceptions-the Crimean War being one. But before the Revolution in 1917 the British had usually been allied with or had come, in the course of longer conflicts, to be allied with Russia.
As to 1945 there is no chance at all that the British, the most mobilised population in Europe, would have fought the Soviet Union. In fact it was support for the Soviet Union and sympathy with its position which, combined with not entirely realistic assessments of the USSR's response to the Great Depression of the 1930s, was one of themajor reasons for the success of the Socialist party in 1945.
Posted by: bevin | Jan 27 2024 3:20 utc | 65
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 26 2024 16:10 utc | 5
>When the truth intrudes expect massive mental health crises.
As I recall, when USA took French leave (filer à l'Anglaise) from Afghanistan, only one person had a mental health crisis. Namely, some Marine major started jabbering about "accountability", was immediately read the riot act by his superiors, then allowed to resign without punishment, though because it was before his 20 years of service, no pension. His 15 minutes of fame is up, so I have no idea what happened to him since his mental health crisis. Probably Republicans put him on the payroll and trot him out now and then to say bad things about Biden and use that funny "accountability" word.
For everyone besides this major, Afghanistan quickly slipped down the memory hole.
Posted by: anonposter | Jan 27 2024 3:38 utc | 66
Posted by: bevin | Jan 27 2024 3:20 utc | 64
Don't forget Britain's participation (along with US, Canada, and others) in sending troops into Russia during the Civil War years (1918-1920).
Trust me, the Russians have not forgotten.
Posted by: mtw | Jan 27 2024 3:53 utc | 67
This report on the current reality in Ukraine by a woman who was visiting friends there appeared on MoA a week or two ago. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1743658029893984735.html
Now the Enforcing Thugs are coming after her trying to shut her up. She shares at the bottom of the piece how they are trying to cancel and discredit her account.
Posted by: Paranaense | Jan 27 2024 5:07 utc | 68
Posted by: mtw | Jan 27 2024 3:53 utc | 66
"Don't forget Britain's participation (along with US, Canada, and others) in sending troops into Russia during the Civil War years (1918-1920)."
Sure, on the side of the russians. Or are you saying that the civil war had other sides than russians?
So, yes, some russians probably remember it fondly ;)
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Jan 27 2024 5:15 utc | 69
Sure, on the side of the russians. Or are you saying that the civil war had other sides than russians?
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Jan 27 2024 5:15 utc | 68
At first it was just to secure arms and supplies from being given to the Germans, only in about 7 months they sided with some Russians in their civil war.
Posted by: Poslan1 | Jan 27 2024 6:07 utc | 70
Paranaense | Jan 27 2024 5:07 utc | 67
So she has comm. notes about the dead numbers on twitter, the main cia tool of msm. Nothing unexpected. Next step is to put her photo and address on another cia site, the one with the hit list, approved by un and hosted on nato servers. Ukr was saying 9k dead after the first year. If you say today 10k , Elon will personally reward you with a vacation to Israel. But if you say 1m, they come to you
Posted by: rk | Jan 27 2024 8:01 utc | 71
Posted by: Poslan1 | Jan 27 2024 6:07 utc | 69
Disregarding the nonsense from "MembrumFossile", the western intervention WAS the reason there was a civil war at all. It's not that the Reds were entitled to an absence of opposition, but there could hardly be a meaningful one if one taks into account the mess the multiple factions were, especially the inability of the latter to grasp contemporary realities. It is absolutely not a coincidence that the key event for the eruption of the conflict was the collision of the Czech Legion with the Reds and it's alignment with the opposition in Samara. That's when the western powers intervened politically, financially and militarily.
While the early period of the Bolshevik takeover has been falsely described as a "Civil War", particularly by Lenin and his supporters to validate their Marxist Otrthodoxy, it was none of that. And even this short struggle was sidelined for what appeared to be the preparation of the RSFSR/Soviet Russia for a reckoning with imperial Germany, explicitly stated so by Lenin after the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, one that would eventually come in November 1918.
The reality is that it was the Entente powers that would breath life into the disparate White faction. Without western support there would be no civil war as in MAy 1st 1918, the Reds were releasing fanatical anti-communists from prison (on Dzerzhinsky's initiative at that) to prepare for a unified confrontation with the Germans. The deposed Tsar was almost completely ignored at this point.
One could further point at the fact that the Poles were backed in their irredentist venture into Russia, where they declareed the souther White government as the true representative authority of Russia, against whom they didn't fight at all; the Russo-Polish War was waged against the Red Army. This is when Brusilov urged anti-Bolshevik officers to join the Red Army, with a further declaration of patriotic amity and amnesty offered by Lenin, kalinin and the old general.
In short, no western instigation, no civil war. Something like the recent case in Syria.
Posted by: Constantine | Jan 27 2024 9:06 utc | 72
Posted by: bevin | Jan 27 2024 3:20 utc | 64
While the hatred of the British elites against Russia post 1917 has been fairly infamous and the cause of many horrors, this tendency to come up with false nerratives on the subject is unusually common. Particularly baffling is the tendency to attribute to the British elite some extraordinary insidious influence that led to WWI, when the German government, per the official archives and the abundant correspondence of all key players in the German regime, were categorical about the need to initiate a conflict while they had still a perceived advantage, before the increasingly powerful alliance between France and Russia (with the latter improving its capacities), possibly backed by the Brits, would strangle any imperial aspirations of the Second Reich.
This is even more obvious when one takes into account the Drang nach Osten concept of imperialist German expansion eastwards, one which, from 1915 onwards, added additional emphasis on Ukraine and its people.
Posted by: Constantine | Jan 27 2024 9:16 utc | 73
Major Douglas McGregor:
- The ukrainian government is going to move from Kiev to Lvov in the western Ukraine after Russia has won the war and the war stops (???????????????)
- The Ukraine has already 1 million casualties of which some 500 thousand are (severly) wounded.
- The IDF has used poison gas in tunnels in Gaza in an attempt root out the people in those tunnels but it also killed 1 or 2 israeli soldiers who were taken hostage
- The IDF was busy to place explosives in a building in Gaza for a "controlled demolition". Then Hamas attacked the tank that was close by. As a result of that the 27 IDF soldiers were killed and destroyed the tank as well.
- More war and more war is coming (in the Middle East)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB-erV0TChQ
Posted by: WMG | Jan 27 2024 9:43 utc | 74
Posted by: bevin | Jan 27 2024 3:20 utc | 64
A concise and accurate summation of the ‘historical context’ that was lacking from shadowbanned’s post. I also think the casus belli that would have been invoked to initiate the operation is important, as is its contingent nature.
Posted by: bisfugged | Jan 27 2024 0:49 utc | 58
I appreciate your honesty, and your comment that is suggestive and supportive of the opinion that the RoW is driven by the same motivations and desires as those you are now ‘at the top of the table’. Envy, after all, is a powerful historical motivator.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 26 2024 23:22 utc | 51
Curious, a blown barrel tends to banana it, not cause a catastrophic explosion, I suspect it’s another cause.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 27 2024 0:15 utc | 55
The NATO equipment has generally worked as designed, it’s the strategic situation that determine’s a weapons impact.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 26 2024 23:51 utc | 53
Yes it is a window, because human nature only allows temporary adjustments, before curving back to its initial trajectory. The world is beginning to shrug off the Cold War control inputs and is sliding back to ‘normality’.
Posted by: Milites | Jan 27 2024 9:47 utc | 75
U.S. war plans for Ukraine don’t foresee retaking lost territoryStill smarting from last year’s failed counteroffensive in Ukraine, the Biden administration is putting together a new strategy that will de-emphasize winning back territory and focus instead on helping Ukraine fend off new Russian advances while moving toward a long-term goal of strengthening its fighting force and economy.
The emerging plan is a sharp change from last year, when the U.S. and allied militaries rushed training and sophisticated equipment to Kyiv in hopes that it could quickly push back Russian forces occupying eastern and southern Ukraine. That effort foundered, largely on Russia’s heavily fortified minefields and front-line trenches.
“It’s pretty clear that it will be difficult for them to try to mount the same kind of major push on all fronts that they tried to do last year,” a senior administration official said.
The idea now is to position Ukraine to hold its position on the battlefield for now, but “put them on a different trajectory to be much stronger by the end of 2024 … and get them on a more sustainable path,” said the senior official, one of several who described the internal policymaking on the condition of anonymity. [...]
Rather than the massive artillery duels that dominated much of the fighting in the second half of 2022 and much of 2023, the West’s hope for 2024 is that Ukraine will avoid losing any more territory than the one-fifth of the country now occupied by Russia. Additionally, Western governments want Kyiv to concentrate on tactics where its forces have had greater recent success — longer-distance fires, including with French cruise missiles promised for delivery within the next few months; holding back Russia’s Black Sea Fleet to protect naval transit from Ukraine’s ports; and tying up Russian forces inside Crimea with missile strikes and special operations sabotage. [...]
The plan also includes additional air defense to create protective “bubbles” around Ukrainian cities beyond Kyiv and Odessa and to allow key parts of the Ukrainian economy and exports, including steel and agriculture, to recover. Biden last fall named former commerce secretary Penny Pritzker as U.S. envoy to lead an effort to rebuild Ukraine’s economy and mobilize public and private investment. [...]
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/01/26/ukraine-war-plan-biden-defense/
Posted by: Apollyon | Jan 27 2024 10:01 utc | 76
@ Doctor Eleven, §5:
Couldn´t agree with you more, Doc.
Humans en masse have the intelligence of . . . a dog.
That´s why Goebbels, with total control of the media during the 3rd Reich, could drive an educated, cultured country over a cliff.
Latest is American nukes stationed in Britain. Where are the Greenham Common women? Where is the Grauniad?
Posted by: John Marks | Jan 27 2024 10:01 utc | 77
currently theres some 14 tankers with oil stranded around southkorea due to the unprovoked fullscale sanctions war of aggression against the russian federation.
you know of what this remainds me of?
that old german "kauft nicht beim juden!" that was so popular during the reign of little mustache man.
nazis come full circle. western values.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Jan 27 2024 10:49 utc | 78
75 - Wow. Kiev strategy drafted in Washington DC. Who ever would have guessed...
Posted by: Waldorf | Jan 27 2024 10:53 utc | 79
Re nato equipment. Ukraine forces were complaining about it on social media before it became a criminal offence to do so. Captured javelins? stingers? went to the Donbass forces. Many of the batteries were no good. There was a bit of an article somewhere where they had figured out a method of fitting non standard batteries to get them working.
The major complaint from Ukraine forces though were the like of the 777 guns. Constantly breaking down, barrels wearing out ect whereas soviet gear was designed as work horses. Long lasting in battle and easy to maintain.
Leopards? One complaint I read coming from the Ukraine side that their complexity caused a lot of breakdowns.
One thing that would have been occuring and it has been mentioned is Nato militarys are not going to send their best pieces to Ukraine if they are systems that military still uses. The will cull the herd so to speak, sending the units that are in the worst state to Ukraine.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 27 2024 11:10 utc | 80
So the Tuapse refinery will be out of action for more than a month after the "Ukrainian" drone strike.
Meanwhile Ukraine has no problems with fuel whatsoever.
What does that tell you?
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 27 2024 12:02 utc | 81
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 27 2024 12:02 utc | 81
i didnt know the tuapse refinery is responsible for all the fuel in russia, you learn something new every day.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Jan 27 2024 12:11 utc | 82
Apollyon | Jan 27 2024 10:01 utc | 76
————
could quickly push back Russian forces occupying eastern and southern Ukraine. That effort foundered, largely on Russia’s heavily fortified minefields and front-line trenches.
I distinctly remember being told I (we) should all point and laugh at Russia’s “fortified” minefields. I was informed Russia’s defence lines would be no obstacle to the rapid push Melitopol. (And then Crimea)
… The plan also includes additional air defense to create protective “bubbles” around Ukrainian cities beyond Kyiv and Odessa and to allow key parts of the Ukrainian economy and exports, including steel………
Just this week the Atlantic Council chided that Australia was required to send free coal to Ukraine. Curious as to how the ukies are gonna reactive their steel industry if they are depending on free shiploads of Australian coal.
Also. Wasn’t the Avostal steelworks in Mariupol the centrepiece of Ukrainian steel industry ?
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 27 2024 12:19 utc | 83
"..How many major wars did the UK instigate or openly fought against Russia?.." shаdοwbanned | Jan 26 2024 17:35 utc | 22Very few. Britain and Russia have generally been allied in war. There have been exceptions-the Crimean War being one. But before the Revolution in 1917 the British had usually been allied with or had come, in the course of longer conflicts, to be allied with Russia.
Posted by: bevin | Jan 27 2024 3:20 utc | 65
Incorrect.
It has been British policy for centuries to instigate major wars on the continent so that everyone is weakened and no great power arises there that can rival them.
Even the Napoleonic wars, when they were allied with Russia, are an example of that, and in that sense were a war against Russia too.
But WWII is an outright British aggression against the USSR, despite the official appearance. By that point the British empire was greatly weakened by WWI and cracking under its own immense weight, plus they have always been cowards who prefer other people to fight their wars anyway, and the communists were a huge menace. Ideally they would once again find someone to fight their war for them. Then capitalism committed suicide in 1929, and the question what to do with the Bolsheviks became even more acute. So Hitler was installed in power and then maneuvered (it wasn't "appeasement" as modern revisionist history describes it, it was instigation) into launching a big war against the USSR, with the intention of having the Germans and the Russians destroy each other. Which is what happened.
BTW, does that story remind you of something that happened in the last 20 years? It's the same playbook.
Then the Cold War came -- were the British and the Russians on the same side?
Also, listen to what the people who know better than you are saying -- Medvedev openly called them Russia's eternal enemies.
Don't forget Britain's participation (along with US, Canada, and others) in sending troops into Russia during the Civil War years (1918-1920).Trust me, the Russians have not forgotten.
Posted by: mtw | Jan 27 2024 3:53 utc | 67
Indeed they haven't.
Posted by: Constantine | Jan 27 2024 9:06 utc | 72
Well explained about the civil war.
And how many dead was that? Several million.
How much damage did that do to the communist project?
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 27 2024 12:19 utc | 84
Horrible month so far for the Russians. Not only did the AFU drone strike a major Russian oil center but there was a HIMARS strike that killed a lot of Russian drone operators (see Down South's post #30 above).
Posted by: bored | Jan 27 2024 12:47 utc | 85
It's always a shame when the shadow band are allowed to take over the thread, especially at the start. There's really no point reading further.
Posted by: Another Thing | Jan 27 2024 13:27 utc | 86
Re nato equipment. Ukraine forces were complaining about it on social media before it became a criminal offence to do so. Captured javelins? stingers? went to the Donbass forces. Many of the batteries were no good. There was a bit of an article somewhere where they had figured out a method of fitting non standard batteries to get them working.
The major complaint from Ukraine forces though were the like of the 777 guns. Constantly breaking down, barrels wearing out ect whereas soviet gear was designed as work horses. Long lasting in battle and easy to maintain.
Leopards? One complaint I read coming from the Ukraine side that their complexity caused a lot of breakdowns.
One thing that would have been occuring and it has been mentioned is Nato militarys are not going to send their best pieces to Ukraine if they are systems that military still uses. The will cull the herd so to speak, sending the units that are in the worst state to Ukraine.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 27 2024 11:10 utc | 80
Come on. People have a hard time differentiating between the usual complaints of soldiers for which no equipment is good enough, and the actual quality.
The fact of the matter is that NATO weapons, although not perfect, are potent and effective. The proof lies in the words of the Ukrainians themselves, of the Putin entourage, of the NATO leaks. It's a common trope of anti- and pro-Russians altogether that withouth western support, Ukrainne would collapse in a month. Conversely, it means that Western support is truly huge, if it is sufficient to cause a stalemate and prevent the Russians from advancing significantly since around two years now.
HIMARS are derided. I remember last year simplicius confidently claiming the Russians would adapt and hunt them down. Well guess what, HIMARS are alive and well, as evidenced by the latest strike, and this weapon did immeasurable damage. Storm Shadows and SCALP are effective.
Of course, most peasants being unable to think in non-binary terms, they will assume I am of the opinion that Western weapons are the best. This is not true. But they do have a serious impact. Let's also recall b's confident predictions that the Ukrainians would be unable to maintain the logistics chain and handle all those various models. Newsflash : Ukrainians are doing quite well. When you see that they can transport Bradley M2 all the way from Lvov to Avdeevka, and use them effectively to thwart Russian assaults, that tells you quite a lot of things :
- Ukrainian transport is working as a charm
- they are also able to provide ammo and fuel all the way through Donbass without having to fear Russian aviation
- they are able to maintain adequately enough the armor
But of course, it's far easier to bluster, beat its chest and say with a loud voice "Western weapons shit ! Russian army miles ahead !" Yeah right. As evidenced by the fact Ukrainians are still firmly wedged 10 km near Donetsk and aren't giving any ground.
Posted by: Micron | Jan 27 2024 13:29 utc | 87
Also, if you read attentively the pro-Russian TG reports, you will find some disturbing tidbits, like this one about the Ukrainian artillery having in some places superiority over Russian art. How can that be, if they have lost all their Soviet equipment and if M777 break like crystal ? Propaganda bullshit. The Ukies do have an effective mix and do not suffer from shell hunger.
Posted by: Micron | Jan 27 2024 13:31 utc | 88
@65
Historically, England and Russia have been rivals in international affairs. The only inconsistency in the relationship has been degree the of tension between them at any given point in time.
During the tsarist era, worldwide Anglo-Russian rivalry is known as "The Great Game," which unfolded from the early 1700's to 1907. Between the two world wars, London's policy toward the Soviets was quite hostile, ending only during WW2. But after 1945, England - as an American vassal - partnered with the US in confronting the USSR in the Cold War.
In the 21st century, the UK has always been America's wingman in confronting Putin's Russia.
Posted by: GW | Jan 27 2024 13:37 utc | 89
Dima reports that yesterday Putin said that there are 600 thousand Russian soldiers involved in the SMO. Dima added that there are 1.2 million soldiers involved on the Ukrainian side. Can anyone confirm this number of Ukrainian soldiers?
I thought they were out of men and I would never have imagined that they had twice as many Russian soldiers on the battlefield.
Thanks.
Posted by: Fern | Jan 27 2024 13:44 utc | 90
Have to agree, again, with the shadow. People who talk about US/UK "Appeasement" are telling a bad joke. Both the US and UK had elites, like Ford, who loved Hitler and would do anything to help him - as long as he directed his aggression to the east. Many have noted the role that Chamberlain played in the Munich agreement. Few realize that before Hitler was given Czechoslovakia and the Skoda works, France's army, alone, could have defeated him. The US and UK were only forced to open a 2nd front after the Soviets' victory, August '43 in Kursk. They saw the Red Army pushing the nazis back, so they decided to meet the Red Army as far East as they could. At the Quebec Conference, Churchill agreed to join with the US in trying to keep control over as much of Europe as possible.
Posted by: zeke2u | Jan 27 2024 13:45 utc | 91
Posted by: ryanggg | Jan 26 2024 23:08 utc | 50
Yes that glaring contradiction has been clear for coming up on 2 years now, and yet I can't recall a single person\report\etc in public ask any of the western leadership spouting said contradictory things or their spokespeople to explain themselves on that. Not surprised though.
Posted by: knighthawk | Jan 27 2024 13:48 utc | 92
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 26 2024 18:29 utc
Not wrong about that, and even later when out of office was still trying to lobby US via interactions with congressmen (per fbi files\reports) to use the a-bomb on ru. Dodged a bullet dumping that lunatic when they did.
Posted by: knighthawk | Jan 27 2024 14:01 utc | 93
Posted by: Another Thing | Jan 27 2024 13:27 utc | 86
Happens a lot.
Posted by: Fern | Jan 27 2024 13:44 utc | 90
Pick your own numbers, everyone else seems too.
Posted by: knighthawk | Jan 27 2024 14:14 utc | 94
https://t.me/treugolniklpr/19580
Militants of the Kyiv regime massively attacked Novaya Kakhovka with drones. They hit civilian targets: shops, residential buildings, infrastructure facilities. Several units of public and private transport were damaged on Pervomaiskaya Street.A 70-year-old woman was injured and received the necessary medical assistance. Data on the victims is being clarified.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 27 2024 14:18 utc | 95
Also, if you read attentively the pro-Russian TG reports, you will find some disturbing tidbits, like this one about the Ukrainian artillery having in some places superiority over Russian art. How can that be, if they have lost all their Soviet equipment and if M777 break like crystal ? Propaganda bullshit. The Ukies do have an effective mix and do not suffer from shell hunger.Posted by: Micron | Jan 27 2024 13:31 utc | 88
Also, people don't understand how much stuff was actually sent.
We do have a large collection of Lancet strikes on M777s, and it at this point exceeds the official number supplied. Yet they are still firing.
But this is on the Kremlin.
I am tired of repeating it -- Russia has and always had the technical means to isolate the battlefield, disable AFU logistics, and block the weapons transfers. And nuking the border crossings with Poland and Romania is only the last resort measure, there are all sorts of very effective steps between the near-zero such effort now and that.
But you see various morons talking about how, see, it is so much easier to destroy NATO equipment in the Donbass. Yeah, sure, and have tens of thousands of Russians killed in the process. What a great deal...
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 27 2024 14:40 utc | 96
Dima reports that yesterday Putin said that there are 600 thousand Russian soldiers involved in the SMO. Dima added that there are 1.2 million soldiers involved on the Ukrainian side. Can anyone confirm this number of Ukrainian soldiers? I thought they were out of men and I would never have imagined that they had twice as many Russian soldiers on the battlefield. Thanks.Posted by: Fern | Jan 27 2024 13:44 utc | 90
Take a look at the stalemate on the front lines. Does it look like UA is out of men?
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 27 2024 14:40 utc | 97
Former Canadian Armed Forces member and author, Mike Mihajlovic, is posting a series of articles on Black Mountain Analysis. The first one is up:
“This and the following articles will address the use of old air defense missile systems in recent wars. Even if they were introduced 50 or more years ago, they still present clear and present danger and can put a punch if applied properly even though the wheel of time has already placed them into 'retirement’ age.
The series of articles includes 2K12 Kub (SA-6), S-125 Neva (SA-3 Goa), S-75 (SA-2), HAWK, and S-200 (SA-5), systems with a brief retrospective of their development and composition with emphasis on the modernization and conversions and application in the most recent wars.”
He looks at Ukraine and finally Yemen.
https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/when-the-old-timers-go-marching-in
Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Jan 27 2024 14:40 utc | 98
As ever, if a terrorist farts in the woods, banned is here to promote it. What we would do without you here to report every single propaganda 'win' of the Ukrainazis? A cowardly attack by terrorists on civilian targets. Shows the utter weakness and desperation of the Ukrainians, despite the assertions here. When I see Colombian cartel goons as Ukrops soldiers you know just how serious the meat supply issues are becoming.
Milites _ it is a window, because human nature only allows temporary adjustments, before curving back to its initial trajectory.
This isn't physics. It's industrial capacity. Who is going to help the West catch up now that the genius financiers earlier alluded to have outsourced all means of production to unfriendly nations? Not to mention the prouncounced intellectual decline. Remind me how many engineers the US trained last year. Now remind me how many of these were Chinese or Indian immigrants. The writing is clearly on the wall for those paying attention.
I won't go into detail about how Maerica has squandered any remaining moral authority and soft power with its protection of the Israeli genocide in Gaza.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 27 2024 14:45 utc | 99
Take a look at the stalemate on the front lines. Does it look like UA is out of men?Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 27 2024 14:40 utc | 97
See my last comment, NATO shill. I would answer affirmatively, since Ukraine is actively preparing to conscript women of childbearing age. But do go on, I enjoy watching people do a rendition of Colin Powells white vial UN performance. Outrageous exaggerations and hyperbole are always amusing.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 27 2024 14:48 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6477356
And the more significant announcement:
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6477289
So basically Russia isn't ready for total war yet because despite the loud proclamations, while the key systems do exist, they don't exist in a state of proper full deployment.
Of course that is the charitable interpretation, which grants the "we are stalling for time" excuse to the pathetic displays of weakness observed in the last two years.
But then why jail Strelkov and crack down on patriotic dissent?
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 26 2024 15:47 utc | 1