And note that Ukrainian nationalists don’t get upset about Ukranglish, nor do Russians get upset about Runglish or Spanish speakers about Spanglish and only bureaucrats with too much time on their hands and a need to justify their government salaries get agitated about Frenglish.

Posted by: anonposter | Jan 25 2024 21:26 utc | 204

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 25 2024 21:23 utc | 204
They are misusing pidgin. Pidgin is things like “him go to big city tomorrow”. That is, grammar is broken. Something like Spanglish, or mix of Spanish plus a huge number of English words, that is common among second generation Mexican immigrants to the USA is not pidgin. Their grammar is perfectly normal Spanish grammar, but they tend to replace Spanish words with an English equivalent because they use English at work and only speak Spanish with parents and grandparents, so Spanish vocabulary is gradually replaced by English. So instead of “la fábrica”, they might say “el factory”, because this is a word they use at work but not at home.

Posted by: anonposter | Jan 25 2024 21:34 utc | 206

by Milites | Jan 25 2024 21:04 utc | 201
There is some wrong assumption or a few there.
Official military statement spoken by some general of transportation was that the Ukrainian side was warned as many times before, 15 minutes before the departure.
That is enough time to prepare, briefly illuminate it, shoot and scoot. Hyena tactics.
The West is now in It wasn’t us, but it is obvious it was with their weapons, ISR and help therefore – them.
So UK messes up again with the closest ally, the USA?
Or now every NATO member has a great idea, implementing stuff, making terrible mistakes and making idiots out themselves.
Video tells it all.

Posted by: whirlX | Jan 25 2024 21:42 utc | 208

Pidgin is things like “him go to big city tomorrow”. That is, grammar is broken.
Posted by: anonposter | Jan 25 2024 21:34 utc | 207
This word pidgin… I am trying to remember how so called Ukrainian came through in the Russian to English prior to machine translators bring in Ukrainian to English. It was quite similar to that of the older aboriginal people I had dealings with whose first language and the language used amongst themselves was their native language. I think the younger people would use English with quite often an aboriginal word thrown in, having learnt both languages since birth.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 25 2024 21:56 utc | 210

Daily reminder, Russia should nuke Ukraine and Putin should be guillotined in Red Square.
Posted by: RemiTheCrazySailor | Jan 25 2024 22:08 utc | 212

Go back to post 191:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/01/ukraine-open-thread-2024-027.html?cid=6a00d8341c640e53ef02c8d3a99ac3200d#comment-6a00d8341c640e53ef02c8d3a99ac3200d
That is the mood in Russia

— To be at the head of a nuclear power and allow respected partners to spit on you like that, and ignore the murders of your own people, this cannot happen without betrayal and sabotage. Look how even a hundred times smaller countries do not allow themselves to be humiliated like this
— Put is no longer the leader of the country, but a terrible page of history. The traitors are pulling “SVO” in order to still hold on to power. But that’s enough, the time for the lackeys is up, Russia should now be ruled by people’s rulers, not dirty traitors
— The Russian people no longer want and cannot remain silent, we see everything and understand what is happening around the Northern Military District, who benefits from the prolongation of this conflict. It is a shame that the leadership of our country does not care about the lives of its citizens. And why then is there so much empty talk about demography if the country’s leadership does not care about the murdered Russian people?
— Putin cannot take Avdiivka for two years and is afraid of his own shadow. What’s the point of addressing pale weakness? He must be changed through legitimate popular elections, and then held accountable for everything.

These are not my statements

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 25 2024 22:13 utc | 212

The EU is moving forward with plans to impose a windfall tax on the income generated by frozen Russian assets, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing sources.
Bloc members’ foreign ministers approved the tax on Monday and their ambassadors will discuss the step later this week, the outlet claimed, citing people familiar with the matter.
????????
Posted by: Jo | Jan 25 2024 22:22 utc | 214
I read a few days ago that EU has already re-directed income from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. Even that is a foolish thing to do as that will have to be repaid in the future.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 25 2024 22:41 utc | 214

“The EU is moving forward with plans to impose a windfall tax on the income generated by frozen Russian assets.”
Even though the Russian assets are frozen, income can be generated from them.
The Gnomes of Zurich never sleep.

Posted by: ZurichGnomes | Jan 25 2024 22:44 utc | 216

Posted by: whirlX | Jan 25 2024 21:42 utc | 209
Too much is unknown at the present to make definitive statements, hence my qualificatory language. A prisoner exchange of this magnitude has previously involved a middle man, Turkey IIRC, was used for the Azov Steel swap, with secret negotiations talking months. Were the same protocols followed in this planned exchange, and why was the decision to use transport aircraft, instead of the usual road/rail network?
Gradually the facts are coming out and naturally both sides are trying to shape the developing narrative, I’m just wondering who has the greater hole to fill. Experience suggests cock-up, by both sides, over conspiracy, especially given the Ukrainian government seems to be perpetually in a state of confusion and the military only have the barest semblance of a working chain of command.

Posted by: Milites | Jan 25 2024 22:51 utc | 218

by shаdοwbanned | Jan 25 2024 22:13 utc | 213
Yes it is not a secret. This is how Russians feel mostly about it. Lots of sentiment, but it doesn’t count against cold calculating entity. At least on a paper, the NATO is a pretty big enemy, that can cause lots of trouble. Where it is blocked is that it is a multinational, but with a lot of mutual energy interests and are not keen to go to the conflict, and will object.
Do people in Hungary want beautiful Budapest destroyed? Or Viennese, or Prague. Europe will never agree to be mobilized against Russians, no matter what.
After the USA has tried everything, with or without Trump they will have to do the right thing and retreat. End of story. No nukes necessary.
But before that the Ukraine as a concept, must be smashed, as an example, sure. Israel too.

Posted by: whirlX | Jan 25 2024 22:59 utc | 220

ooops…wrong column sorry re Iran as target..

Posted by: Jo | Jan 25 2024 23:09 utc | 222

Posted by: Jo | Jan 25 2024 23:03 utc | 222
Wonder if those Israelis really want to expand so Iran can actually hit Israel’s infrastructure. They could quickly become a dysfunctional disabled state, ripe for overrun from all its neighbors.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 25 2024 23:24 utc | 224

by Milites | Jan 25 2024 22:51 utc | 219
You are absolutely right and also to be chary to your analysis.
What I understand is that this is a regularity mode since the dramatic exchanges. Many such 50-100 PoW exchange happened since Azov siege saga. Every month one exchange batch, at least.
However, Russians said very clearly what has happened, never changed the story. Also rarely happens that Russians mentioned radar pictures and a data, so surely have the proof, if needed. I mean why bother, it doesn’t help..
I have feeling postures are going to rump up, certainly.

Posted by: whirlX | Jan 25 2024 23:53 utc | 226

https://www.unz.com/estriker/onward-christian-soldiers-who-is-preventing-peace-in-ukraine/
Interesting how this article tries to rehabilitate Zaluzhny and Arestovich merely because they’re not Jews.
Zaluzhny has been photographed with a swastika bracelet. He’s been going on about fantasy weapons he needs to defeat Russia, such as tunnelling lasers. He’s totally complicit in such bloodbaths as the battles of Mariupol and Soledar. It was only after repeated defeats in urban combat that he turned against city fighting in Artëmovsk. At no point has he ever pretended that he wants peace with Russia; his standpoint is that the current Elensky regime is not winning the war the way it is fighting.
As for Arestovich: In 2019, Elensky was elected by a huge majority campaigning on a platform of peace, an end to the Donbass fighting, implementation of the Minsk II agreement, and equal rights for everyone. That very same year, Arestovich predicted that
1. There would be a major war against Russia, and this was the price Ukraine would have to pay for entry into NATO and
2. This war would take place in 2022.
Arestovich was Elensky’s liar in chief from 2022 to early 2023, by which time he realised (like the more intelligent original nazis had realised in 1942) that the war was lost. Which is why he himself now admits that he was deliberately lying at the time, because “it was the right thing to do”, and claims he is “not lying now”. It is a rehabilitation attempt like that of, say, Albert Speer, one which successfully saved Speer from the gallows.
Arestovich, of course, is playing for much higher stakes than just saving his neck from the noose. He’s now pitching himself as an acceptable to Russia post war president of whatever is left over of Ukraine. He’s another political con man.
That is all.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 26 2024 0:39 utc | 228

Meanwhile back in the corrupt controlled western media since September 1939. There is minor ripple when certain countries do war crimes on a daily basis. Granting on a routine basis free passes to the vassal states sponsored and or paid with large slices of funny printed valueless “Union of the Soviet States of Amerika” worthless air dollars! The USSA air dollars became worthless the same day as the last “Lendlease war toys” payment was received.
Oh well, George Orwell did warn us way back in 1949!
Yet the western 5eyes media continues to wonder why the bulk of the r
Such is life.

Posted by: BadDealMotorsOn | Jan 26 2024 1:06 utc | 230

Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 26 2024 0:39 utc | 229
*** Arestovich, of course, is playing for much higher stakes than just saving his neck from the noose. He’s now pitching himself as an acceptable to Russia post war president of whatever is left over of Ukraine. He’s another political con man.
That is all. ***
You sure Arestovich isn’t Jewish (and probably with a second passport)?

Posted by: Cynic | Jan 26 2024 1:12 utc | 232

Babel-17 | Jan 26 2024 1:16 utc | 234
I had to laugh at the first link. Haven’t looked at the second as yet.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 26 2024 1:27 utc | 234

https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2024/01/22/will-war-result-from-the-ever-hesitant-putin/

But proactive action does not seem to be in the skill set of Washington’s targeted enemies. With the single exception of Putin’s intervention in Syria to prevent Obama’s invasion, Putin has proved to be ever hesitant about taking control of the situation. It took him eight years to abandon his delusion about the Minsk Agreement. When he finally realized that he had been taken for a ride, the Russian military was not prepared for the level of violence required. Consequently a war that Russia should have won in a few days is two years old and continuing.
From my experience with the liberal Russian intelligentsia, I would say that their program is surrender to Washington. They would rather be invited as visiting professors to Harvard, Yale, and Stanford, and to serve as consultants to American corporations than to be in conflict with the West. As Putin seems to believe toleration of subversion is a sign of democracy, he could have been prevented from required action by pressure to prove that he is not, as the entirety of the West proclaims, a dictator. Putin would have saved many lives by ignoring the propaganda of his enemies and being more forceful in Russia’s defense.
[…]
It seems that Russia, China, Iran, and Israel’s Muslim enemies think that words count when nothing but action counts. In the West words are meaningless. Only actions count. And Russia’s are missing.
[…]
The failure to confront Russia’s enemies with defeats means the pressure against Russia, the ongoing provocations, and the humiliations inflicted will continue until Russia is forced into war.
There is a great deal of talk about American over-extension, outmoded weapon systems, excessive debt, inability to recruit for the military, etc., most of which is true. But the neoconservatives in control are still full of confidence, and this confidence is ever encouraged by Putin’s lack of decisive action. The war that is shaping up appears to be unavoidable.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 26 2024 2:05 utc | 236

Such is life.
Posted by: BadDealMotorsOn | Jan 26 2024 1:06 utc | 231
A few years back I had thoughts of getting a flag made to Raise in my front yard as flag waving was a bit the in thing.
This would be a black flack flag with the white silhouette of Ned Kelly in armour and under it in white arabic script – “Such is life”.
Just to stir the possum amongst the Aussie flag wavers.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 26 2024 2:46 utc | 238

Posted by: whirlX | Jan 26 2024 4:09 utc | 240

I don’t know what aces the Pentagon has up its sleeves, but I know it for a fact that Russian diplomats and officials have been privately bragging how Russia has first strike advantage at the moment and should use it while it still has it.
If this reflects their internal understanding of the balance of power, then the question immediately comes up regarding why it is allowed for such grave violations of Russian security to become a daily occurrence.
And vice versa — if the Pentagon is in fact the one who has the upper hand, then why start the war in the first place, and if you start it, why not do everything possible to finish it quickly and decisively before the Pentagon can get involved?
However, remember also how early on the West moved all its embassies out of Kiev, and only escalated very slowly. Which suggests that they themselves did in fact have a lot to fear.
But that only makes the subsequent Russian inaction more baffling.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 26 2024 5:13 utc | 240

the risks inherent in Putin’s throwing pearls to swine
https://gilbertdoctorow.com and https://www.paulcraigroberts.org
shаdοwbanned | Jan 26 2024 2:05 utc | 236 & 237
HEAR HEAR !!!
Some folks gonna need to wake TF up, imo.
But, happy to wait a couple of more months still as militarily Russia rolls right over the top of Ukraine and all that NATO troops and officers on the ground there are slaughtered ….. then let’s see what Putin does once Odessa Oblast is taken by Russian forces.
If he blinks, he’s fucked imo. And so is Russia …. the entire RoW project implodes in upon itself.
And Palestinians will become like the Dodo bird and Passenger Pigeons

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jan 26 2024 5:55 utc | 242

The Novosti press agency has a list of the Ukrainian dead on the Il-76 flight. The list also has the year of birth birth year, so I calculated the average year of birth of the Ukrainian POW’s on the plane: 1983.

Posted by: Passerby | Jan 26 2024 7:18 utc | 244

Russia did not spend the 8 years from 2014-22 preparing for war. It didn’t even take the obvious lessons from the 2020 Nagorno Karabakh conflict about how deadly and important drones had become on the battlefield. It spent the whole of 2022 playing catch up with Ukranazistan in drones, and is still not far enough ahead to be able to launch those large scale offensives those earth shaking strategic experts Martyanov and Macgregor were confidently predicting for end 2022.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 26 2024 6:52 utc | 244

Correct.
And that is what allowed the war to evolve into the current drone stalemate.
Back in 2022 the Russian army was still advancing robustly. Now it’s a major achievement to capture a single street.
But worse is to come if the drones are not contained. It is not clear how much Chinese backing there will be for Russia, and if there isn’t full such backing, the prospect of the Ukrainians gaining the upper hand in the drone war with the full backing of the West is very real (especially once it moves fully towards autonomous drones fighting autonomous drones). That already happened locally in Krynki. Then what?
And even if Russia prevails somehow, at what cost will that happen?
Of course, Ukraine does not produce any microchips and advanced electronic components for drones locally. So the question about shutting down the Polish and Romanian borders once comes to the forefront. This is the only way to win the drone war currently — just deny your opponent access to them. And for that you need the really big guns, which Russia has in abundance, plus the balls to use them, but those there is a dire shortage of.
Will it take another collapse of the front for the Kremlin to finally wake up?
P.S. Regarding the drones and Karabah, my understanding is that the Russian MOD dismissed UCAVs because they would be shot down in short order in a serious war (while in Karabakh the traitors in charge of the Armenian government had surrendered from the start). And that assessment has been proven correct.
But the small drones were something the Donetsk rebels were experimenting with many years ago. Why that was not picked up is a complete mystery. Also, small drones were actually thought of by many as a strength of the Russian army going into the war, but that was for reconnaissance purpose, and even that was found out to be lacking in 2022.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 26 2024 7:46 utc | 246

I just double checked…
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-12224-major-breakthroughs
…it is the Ukrainian lines collapsing, not the Russian lines despite some contributors doom laden posts, trying to justify their ‘fire a nuke at every drone’ policy and “patriotic” calls to have Putin guillotined on Red Square.
Perhaps for once critique the stellar performance of the Ukraine military and politicians, or the puppet masters of Ukraine, safe there with you in Washington DC. Or at least balance Russian performance against the shit show of its opponents.

Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Jan 26 2024 8:20 utc | 248

Sure. The lines are collapsing and the babushka is pretty high by the 80,000 souls of Russians.
All know the mess. In the heaven by their straggle. The sacrifice is worth it. If not, nobody would for An idea. Are you able to fight for an Idea?

Posted by: Op. | Jan 26 2024 8:32 utc | 250

Russia did not spend the 8 years from 2014-22 preparing for war.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 26 2024 6:52 utc | 244

You say it as if it’s a bad thing. Russian people spent these years living in a normal country, doing normal things and it pisses you off? Russians did not want this or any other war, and the elected representatives did what they were elected to do – they catered to their electorate’s wishes. This pisses you off?
What was absolutely necessary to protect the country, was done without austerity, that was considered enough. Was it really enough? When time came, it bought time to do more, so yeah, enough it was.
West wanted this waŕ though. By the way, personally you wanted it too – it shows that you want Russia to fight your battles.
Yet, you don’t find any fault with “huge numbers of kontraktniks were quitting in disgust, leaving the frontline almost denuded.” Think of Russia as stepping out of your wars in disgust for long 8 years, may be you will feel more generous toward her then.
So West went to a lot of effort to pull Russia into this war, and when most of the Russian people decided to enter into it, their elected Government did exactly that.
Some people did not want it, some do not want it even now, but most already do, and Russian Government, being Democratically elected, moves where majority wishes. And majority wants to lead normal lives and without any austerity kill all Russia’s enemies.
But somehow you are still not happy. It shows that personally You want Russian people to drop their normal lives, work around the clock and starve in order to kill YOUR enemies. I don’t think it will work out this way though.

Posted by: Poslan1 | Jan 26 2024 8:44 utc | 252

The Ukrainians on the downed plane
– average year of birth 1983 (41 years)
– oldest year of birth 1965 (59 years)
– youngest year of birth 2002 (22 years)
Military age is usually 17 to 35 years. These ages are indicative of a country that has run out of men of fighting age.
If you’re 35 it is more likely for a logistics or administration function – bringing washed clothes and cooked food to the front line, counting weapons in an armoury.

Posted by: Passerby | Jan 26 2024 8:56 utc | 254

Posted by: Jonathan W | Jan 26 2024 8:41 utc | 252
The United Europe gonna crash by 2030-35 because it’is no more money, and when the immigration from all of the World colapses the degraded City, the nations will not have money to pay the civilians servants. That is why Uckranie has no future: no money in a society that can’t produce not even the marvellous land. Every wants to make money in those black lands: V.V. has said not. No Black rock over the territories of russiana.
Do you want War? Do it, bitch?

Posted by: Op | Jan 26 2024 9:30 utc | 256

FT reports further US money for Ukraine is a dead letter:

“We need a Strong, Powerful, and essentially ‘PERFECT’ Border and, unless we get that, we are better off not making a Deal, even if that pushes our Country to temporarily ‘close up’ for a while,” Trump posted on Truth Social on Thursday evening.
“I don’t think any more aid is going to become available any time soon given the chaos within the Republican party,” said Jim Manley, a former senior Democratic aide in the Senate.
On Wednesday, Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell, previously a champion of Ukraine aid, told a closed-door meeting of lawmakers that the “politics have changed” around a pact over the border and more funding for Kyiv.
McConnell referred to Trump as “the nominee” and said Republicans would not want to “undermine him”, according to an account of the meeting from Punchbowl News, which first reported his comments.
https://www.ft.com/content/d314f4f5-7116-423b-a12a-e18113059630

Posted by: too scents | Jan 26 2024 9:47 utc | 258

Girkin will not have any problem, if he is enough intelligent to cut the appellation to claim that is legitimate to make violence against the State. Girkin was saying, not only that the thing was a mess or The cock of Putin was a problem. He was yelling, in his telegram spacio, that V.V. was TRAITOR. The same narrative: Putin is a traitor because he lets the people die. The same story of the people from Tsipso, but with a little problem: in the kremlim those traitors must be get out because they are bad for the russiuans
Don’t you see? The guy who claim the motherland wants to make a coup, if he had money

Posted by: Op | Jan 26 2024 10:03 utc | 260

4 years?
Take 1 year. With the promise, write and with signature, take it easy: you can say whatever, but do not be a American Tsipso

Posted by: Op | Jan 26 2024 10:11 utc | 262

Posted by: ghiwen | Jan 26 2024 10:15 utc |
Nobody wants WWIII.
That is the mess: if you kill billions, how gonna make millions. You can’t kill 1,000,000,000 because the rest eat you. By the bad mouth. you can’t destroy the people because you have spirit. The possibility of an 1-2%s terrible: imagine the last of the people going with nothing to lose about. The childs Think about Palestine: the try to kill, but they can’t.

Posted by: Op | Jan 26 2024 10:36 utc | 264

To the fleeing enemy, a silver bridge.

Posted by: Op | Jan 26 2024 10:46 utc | 266

Posted by: Passerby | Jan 26 2024 10:41 utc | 266
Ukraine will probably wreck the EU from the inside. It is obviously a political project by Ursula and ilk to get Ukraine in, but it will basically suck up all the subsidies from the current system. And excluding political reasons, there will be no more reason for most southern European states to be in the EU, as the benefits dry up. That applies even to Poland, who will be a major net loser.
Especially if Russia gets a land connection with Hungary and hence Serbia, Balkans and Austria, will facilitate the creation of two worlds inside Europe – the part that is piss poor (EU) and the part that is getting wealthy due to its direct connection to Russia and China, cheap energy, wealthy Chinese will flood the southern parts of Europe, investments will boom.
Ukraine is the key, whether this will materialize or not, and whether EU will break down or not.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 26 2024 10:51 utc | 268

Poslan1 @253: “…it shows that you want Russia to fight your battles.”
Good point. I think many people want Russia to fight their battles. I find myself hoping for it at times.
The Empire of Delusions needs to go. The rabid dog needs to be put down, but it’s not Russia’s dog. It is not Russia’s responsibility. It is America’s rabid dog, and it is the responsibility of the American people to put ‘Ol Yeller’ down. Putin’s responsibility is to minimize harm to Russia from the mad dogs of the West. From that perspective the Russian leadership is doing a pretty good job so far.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jan 26 2024 11:07 utc | 270

Poslan 1 @ 254 says:
“You say it as if it’s a bad thing.”
But isn’t that the default excuse of the Putin cult, that he didn’t interve in 2014 when two battalions of Spersnaz airlifted into Kiev could have ended the nazis in a day, because Russia needed to spend the intervening period “preparing its military for war”? How often have I heard Putin cultists claim “Look how difficult it is for Russia to beat Ukraine now, imagine what would have happened in 2014”? Why is it that even after Putin himself admitted that it was a blunder to not have invaded then, Putin cultists still try and find excuses for his failure to do so?

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 26 2024 11:29 utc | 272

I’m interested in the Girkin fan club perspective that says Putin is a failure and a traitor because too many people have died, and their answer is WWIII. Clearly fewer Russians will die in a full mobilization and direct conflict with all of NATO than are dying now. Or somehow that will be more worth it.
To those barflies that haven’t been around a long time or don’t speak any Russian (nor make use of machine translation to get their own primary source information), the Girkinites are very selective in the source material they post. Mostly, but not entirely, they choose bits from a small percentage of Russian social media that includes the Doomers, Russian nationalists and those that pine for a regeneration of the empire. The opinions are real, they do reflect a portion of the Russian people, but they shouldn’t be taken as reflecting the majority opinion in Russia. Whether the Girkinites here are actually part of those groups in Russia (or its diaspora) or psyop types is up to you to decide.
One thing that’s interesting about them is their demand that Russia act like the United States would/does. That includes their refusal of Realism, as defined by a refusal to accept behavioral constraints at the national level. It’s all escalation, all the way up. They moan about Russian liberals a lot but demand that Russia act like the Uberliberalism of the US. And like Americans they demand that victory come at no cost, especially in that they refuse to account for the real cost of the total mobilization and WWIII.
They moan that Russia can’t win the limited engagement in Ukraine but are also sure, somehow, that it will win WWIII against NATO in full. And of course if that event came to pass, the Kremlin would be criticized for every Russian plane shot down because they’re doing it wrong. So it will always come down to Russia launching a nuclear first strike, as if a nuclear first strike can come from the moral high ground.

Posted by: Lex | Jan 26 2024 12:05 utc | 274

https://t.me/milinfolive/115028

Ukraine received two more M270 LRU missile launchers from France, according to the website of the country’s Ministry of Defense.
Previously, at least 4 French M270 LRUs were already transferred to Ukraine, which are a European modernization of the M270A1 MLRS and are equipped with an upgraded EFCS fire control system, a new navigation system (using GPS) and a new communication system.

If this is current operational footage of Ukrainian forces firing rockets from the side of the road, in broad daylight and clear skies, it proves that there is no counter-battery system able to quickly deliver a surveillance-strike drone back along the flight path of artillery radar tracks using the same solid rocket booster technology as artillery rockets.
The same goes for cannon artillery for sure but those rocker smoke trails ought to be a guaranteed death sentence.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jan 26 2024 12:38 utc | 276

anon2020 | Jan 26 2024 12:38 utc | 277
Some time back I found several videos where Russia would track launchers back to their hiding place (warehouse or whatever) and hit them there.
Another factor is that I doubt Russia has enough satellites to keep the entire front under constant surveillance. HIMARS type shoot and scoot can be performed between sat passes. US on the other hand is using 4-500 satellites over Ukraine, both military and civilian. Russia is operating while under constant US/Nato surveillance but Nato on the other hand have breaks in Russian surveilance during which they can act.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 26 2024 14:00 utc | 278

Posted by: anon2020 | Jan 26 2024 12:38 utc | 277
That’s why they are by the side of the road, which greatly limits their deployment, they also consume a large portion of NATO ISR assets to operate, and critically protect the platform. Capabilities that would not be available in a full scale conflict, therefore rendering their supposed efficiency and combat effectiveness in the SMO moot. In fact, it could be argued that those dedicated ISR resources could be used more effectively, if they were supporting a wider range of units and areas of the front, instead of protecting a limited number of Uber-artillery platforms. The Ukrainians have, it seems, become enmeshed in the Tiger paradox, with their artillery elite’s operational limitations outweighed by their tactical impact and propaganda value, both on the frontline and home front.

Posted by: Milites | Jan 26 2024 17:37 utc | 280

Posted by: Milites | Jan 26 2024 17:37 utc | 281
One could make similar arguments about FPV drones and other smaller scale systems being applicable only up to a certain level of intensity, beyond which their significance rapidly dwindles, but the conflict as presently constituted is the one to optimise for and using something like BM-21 rocket motors to rapidly deploy a spotter or kamikaze drone back along counter-batter radar traces is well within available expertise and components
Regardless of how little impact as it’s had in practice, GLSDB is close in general flight characteristics, lacking the necessary spotter optics and back-facing comms link.
Sharpening up counter-battery response in this way would force artillery into a smaller, more costly, niche of AD, EW, decoy coverage and favourable terrain / camouflage. They certainly wouldn’t be firing from the side of the road.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jan 27 2024 11:40 utc | 282