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January 16, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-017
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Butcher Zelensky continues to send ukrainians to slaughter across the Dnieper to Krynki
https://t.me/faceofwar/36977
A ukrainian shot one of the military men who wanted to break into his house and forcibly kidnap him and send him to the army.
https://t.me/dva_majors/32866
Posted by: Psycho | Jan 16 2024 15:49 utc | 1
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/new-war-drums-chill-europe-with-renewed
Simplicius76’s latest article is mostly paywalled, so I’ve only read the free portion. He apparently takes the idea seriously that NATO will begin a major and direct war with Russia on or around November 2024 to stop Trump from winning a second term in office.
I think that idea is rubbish.
It was the same Trump, after all, who was a slavish rubber stamp of zionist interests and the military industrial complex, the same Trump who employed, among others, the arch neocon Bolton, the same Trump who tore up the Iran Nuclear Deal, the Open Skies Treaty, and the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty. Trump’s domestic policies may be anathema to a major part of the population, but to the actual people in charge they do not matter. Trump is a rubber stamp like any other resident of the White Louse, and if they don’t like him, they can always John F Kennedy him.
Nor do I take seriously the idea that a depleted and woke-afflicted NATO can seriously imagine fighting a war with Russia in less than a year’s time, building up enough capable forces for that while in the meantime arming its zionist masters and its Ukranazi proxy. It fails the laugh test.
And does anyone sane seriously believe that the Wall Street warmongers who actually run America would risk their own properties, families, and most importantly their stock options and bank accounts being reduced to radioactive ash in a nuclear WWIII?
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 16 2024 16:35 utc | 2
@ #1
A proper response to the crime of attempted kidnapping by the press gang.
Posted by: A. Pols | Jan 16 2024 16:45 utc | 3
Not entirely off topic –
I expect that Trump will try to show that he “handled” Russia better than Biden.
I am not sure which way that will go – will he revert to his efforts to ingratiate himself with the entrenched government or will he go rogue (commando, even).
Sorry but I think is important to the issue – perhaps B should make a western politics topic.
Whatever the outcome, it is great fun to observe the histrionics of the existing “liberal” order.
Ideally Russia will try to insure it has things well in hand prior to the election, because after the election will be a whole new ballgame.
Posted by: jared | Jan 16 2024 16:46 utc | 4
Byebye Simplicius. I appreciated his articles, but honestly, they are not worth the relatively high fare (Asia Times is cheaper, and with more relevant articles beside the rubbish).
Posted by: aquadraht | Jan 16 2024 16:48 utc | 5
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 16 2024 16:35 utc | 2
It was the same Trump, after all, who was a slavish rubber stamp of zionist interests and the military industrial complex,
You are wrong. They did everything possible to prevent Trump from doing what he wanted and needed to do. They completely neutered him. Why do ypu think they – the deep state – are so afraid of him? He means to go after all these people running America, serving the MIC and perpetuating the forever-wars.
Posted by: Áobh Ó’Sheachnasaigh | Jan 16 2024 16:52 utc | 6
Simplicius is getting the way of Dreizin: writing outrageous stuff so that people pay his subscription and feel they have some “special” knowledge.
The entire premise of his article is flawed. NATO has not only no ability to match the Russian MIC, but also *zero appetite for it*, as there is no desire whatever in Europe to die for either the Ukraine, or some idiot’s desire to start a war with Russia.
The anti-Russian rhetoric is not meant to start a war in the future. It is meant to let the Ukraine get more weapons now. Most of the journos who write about it certainly have knowledge gaps, but they aren’t as stupid as these “leaked” papers want us to believe. Leaked, my foot btw.
Besides: armies work on all sorts of implausible scenarios all the time. It’s part of their war game duties. It does not mean they really think a certain scenario has any probability to happen.
Posted by: Augusto Pi | Jan 16 2024 16:53 utc | 7
It is my impression that this war represents a paradigm shift – the outcome may be largely determined by supremacy in drones. This must be truly hellish for the soldiers – on both sides. Slavyangrad claimed that the Ukraine started with the lead in capability but that the Russians are perhaps surpassing. They are able to locate and target drone operators, somehow (I gather).
I am surprised they are not issuing shotguns.
Posted by: jared | Jan 16 2024 16:55 utc | 8
President Zelensky’s office was unable to push through the mobilization bill – the political forces of Ukraine are more concerned about their own survival. At the same time, Bankova is well aware that, whatever the outcome of the debate on the mobilization law, the population will receive it with hostility.
Because of this, distrust of the authorities will increase in Ukrainian society, and, in conditions of total mobilization, the formation of the so-called “underground” that will engage in sabotage and sabotage. Hatred towards military commissars, who are considered the police of the regime, is already growing; reprisals against them will begin in the near future.
However, Bankova has another option to “recruit” people to the front. For example, from abroad. Accordingly, Zelensky is actively discussing the deportation of men of military age with the Baltic and Eastern European countries. The same Prime Minister of Estonia Kaja Kallas admitted that she spoke with Vladimir Zelensky on this issue, but ruled out the expulsion of Ukrainian citizens, since they are in Estonia legally. “We will definitely not do anything to extradite them. This is Ukraine’s task – to contact the people who are here and invite them back,” Kallas said.
And such a statement can be assessed in two ways – either Zelensky can no longer lobby for their interests even on the most allied territory, or the deportation of Ukrainians will be secretive, so as not to make a fuss in the European press.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/21219
Posted by: Down South | Jan 16 2024 16:57 utc | 9
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Front #Summary for 16 Jan 2024 by 18:50⚡️
🔹In #Kherson Direction, difficult weather conditions reduced the intensity of the AFU’s combat operations. In #Krynki, our forces managed to reach the coastline. The AFU garrison is decreasing in numbers, and it has become quite difficult to replenish it. Once again there is fighting near #Peschanovka, the AFU is intensifying their attacks.
🔹In #Zaporozhye Direction, there are no changes in the frontline. Counter fighting, also limited by weather conditions.
🔹In #SouthDonetsk Direction, there is fighting at the heights near #Urozhaynoye. Our forces have recaptured a number of positions north of #Kermenchuk and #Staromlynovka. A counterattack by the AFU near Zavetnoye Zhelaniye was repulsed. In #Maryinka sector, our army is pushing the enemy garrison in #Novomikhaylovka. Plus, our advance towards #Kurakhovo from the eastern outskirts of #Georgiyevka has been recorded.
🔹In #Donetsk Direction, our forces attacked the AFU on the northern outskirts of #Avdeyevka. There is a battle from the sides of #Kamenka and #Vesyoloye. Unfortunately, the AFU published footage of partial defeat of our equipment column. In the #Gorlovka sector, our troops have advanced at #Shumy, the enemy is responding by shelling the rear.
🔹In #Bakhmut Direction, our artillery is preparing to storm a landing on the hill northwest of #Bogdanovka. The main enemy forces are there. The AFU are holding on to this site. After its capture they will have to retreat from #Bogdanovka, which is located in a lowland. The next village on the way to Chasov Yar is also under fire of our artillery. #Kalinovka. To the north, our troops advanced at #Grigorovka. Further north In the #Seversk sector, our forces are entrenched in the landings near #Belogorovka, our attacks have intensified.
🔹In #Svatovo Direction, in the #Kremennaya forest, our forces have advanced a little. But it is difficult near #Terny, the AFU mortars and artillery are working from the heights, slowing down the advance of our army. In the #Kupyansk sector, #Ukraine announced the evacuation of about 26 villages in close proximity to the front.
💥Our Aerospace Forces struck #Volchansk in #Kharkov region, the target was an AFU deployment site, firing points and an ammunition depot. From this area the enemy is hitting the #Belgorod region.
🔹 Unfortunately, even today we have not learned from MoD what happened to our A-50 and Il-22 planes. Nor have we learnt the names of the heroes, the fallen and the survivors. But we heard about the planned flight over the Sea of Japan. It’s important, I don’t argue, but it’s a shame for the guys. And the truth.
Posted by: Down South | Jan 16 2024 16:59 utc | 10
2024 radio interlude … the $25 hackable radio with encrypted long range comms.
The most hackable radio ==> https://youtu.be/1dt6ykstvOo
Posted by: too scents | Jan 16 2024 17:07 utc | 11
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 16 2024 16:35 utc | 2
In the mix of people I listen to it includes numerous conservatives. Not neoconservatives but conservatives nonetheless.
I noticed that some of the best geopolitical analysts in the world seem to take what Trump says at face value. The Duran comes to mind in this regard.
Given Mr Trump’s track record it strikes me as delusional to be taking what he says seriously.
You’ve made your case. I think that the visceral hostility they have towards the Democrats blinds them in this regard.
Posted by: David G Horsman | Jan 16 2024 17:11 utc | 12
@4, @7
From what I have seen during US elections any candidate mostly has to “play tough” and show leadership. The future president is expected to put “America first” at all cost. There are two main ways to do so, expeditionist or isolationist, we see both themes come up in the MSM now.
Republicans currently are more isolationist, this plays well with the MAGA crowd. Support for Israel and Ukraine are fine but not at any significant cost. Republicans tend to play the religious (implicitly rascist/anti-muslim) cards as part of “Southern strategy”. They can only win over younger voters on economic concerns.
Expeditionist are your neocon warmongers right now, their main candidates were H.R. Clinton and Joe Biden. Democrats play the values card but pacifism is not a value, “humanitarian interventions” are. Democrats need forver war to unite their electorate.
As to NATO I am surprised how shortsighted and blindly loyal EU politicians are. EU is on the cusp of a move to the right, populists sense this and play national pride cards. I do not trust any geopolitical, long-term, wise or even rational ideas to win. Right now I am ashamed to be German, we all gave up on our democracy only to find the “lesser evil” is quite evil.
Posted by: SOS | Jan 16 2024 17:11 utc | 13
Here is latest report from Russia MOD from https://t.me/s/ZandVchannel
🇷🇺 Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation
(16 January 2024)
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
▫️ In Kupyansk direction, units of the Zapad Group of Forces supported by aviation and artillery repelled six attacks launched by assault detachments of the AFU 95th Air Assault Brigade close to Sinkovka (Kharkov region). The enemy losses amounted to up to 160 troops, three tanks (two of them – Leopards), and two pickup trucks.
▫️ In Krasny Liman direction, the Tsentr Group of Forces, supported by artillery fire, repelled four attacks launched by assault groups of the 63rd mechanised and 25th air assault brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People’s Republic), and Yampolovka (Donetsk People’s Republic). The enemy losses amounted to up to 250 troops, two infantry fighting vehicles, and six motor vehicles.
▫️ In Donetsk direction, the Yug Group of Forces, supported by artillery, repelled five attacks launched by assault groups of the 10th mountain assault and 24th mechanised brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces close to Veseloye and Bogdanovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
In addition, artillery and heavy flamethrowers hit the enemy’s manpower and military hardware near Kurdyumovka (Donetsk People’s Republic). The enemy lost up to 280 troops, one tank, two infantry fighting vehicles, and four motor vehicles. During the counter-battery warfare, the following were hit: one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, as well as one D-20 gun.
▫️ In South-Donetsk direction, the Vostok Group of Forces in cooperation with artillery and heavy flamethrowers, inflicted fire damage on the 72nd mechanised and 79th air assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine close to Vladimirovka and Novomikhailovka (Donetsk People’s Republic). The enemy’s losses amounted to 120 troops, two armoured fighting vehicles, two pick-up trucks, one U.S.-made M777 artillery system, and one MT-12 anti-tank gun.
▫️ In Zaporozhye direction, units of the Russian Group of Forces supported by aviation and artillery defeated clusters of manpower and military hardware of the 82nd Air Assault Brigade and the 116th Mechanised Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine close to Verbovoye and Rabotino (Zaporozhye region). The AFU lost up to 115 troops killed and wounded, three armoured fighting vehicles, one D-20 howitzer, and two D-30 guns.
▫️ In Kherson direction, as a result of the Russian Group of Forces actions and artillery, the AFU losses amounted to up to 65 Ukrainian troops, four motor vehicles. Moreover, one U.S.-made M777 artillery system, one M-109 Paladin self-propelled artillery system, and three Gvozdika self-propelled artillery systems were neutralised in counter-battery warfare.
Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, and Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces have engaged AFU manpower and hardware in 112 areas during the day.
Air defence systems have shot down 69 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles during the day, including close to Novaya Mayachka, Golaya Pristann (Kherson region), Pologi (Zaporozhye region), Staromikhailovka, Peski, Spornoye, Maryinka, Lipovoye (Donetsk People’s Republic), Belogorovka, Nyrkovo, Topolevka, Verkhnekamenka, and Krivosheyevka (Lugansk People’s Republic), as well as 13 HIMARS MLRS projectiles.
📊 In total, 567 airplanes and 265 helicopters, 10,758 unmanned aerial vehicles, 450 air defence missile systems, 14,645 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 1,202 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 7,750 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 17,507 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.
Posted by: ctiger | Jan 16 2024 17:13 utc | 14
@ Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 16 2024 16:35 utc | 2:
If we learned nothing else from 2016-2020, it is that Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated. There is no reason to think that Trump in 2024 is any different. A war with Russia may well be coming, but it may well be weak, stupid, easily manipulated Trump that pushes the bottun.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Jan 16 2024 17:19 utc | 15
Right now I am ashamed to be German
Posted by: SOS | Jan 16 2024 17:11 utc | 13
—
East German or West German?
Posted by: too scents | Jan 16 2024 17:21 utc | 16
“Why do ypu think they – the deep state – are so afraid of him? He means to go after all these people running America, serving the MIC and perpetuating the forever-wars.
Posted by: Áobh Ó’Sheachnasaigh | Jan 16 2024 16:52 utc | 6”
Simple – because the foreign policy establishment fears that America’s puppets, satraps, lackeys, vassals, buttbois, etc. will be less willing to blindly follow orders if Trump was in charge.
In 2008, I believe someone in the CIA pointed out that the best way to neuter the antiwar movement in europe was to elect Obama. Because with Obama as president, opposing war and empire meant opposing St. Barack, and Obama made europeans swoon.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Jan 16 2024 17:22 utc | 17
Simplicius76’s latest article is mostly paywalled, so I’ve only read the free portion. He apparently takes the idea seriously that NATO will begin a major and direct war with Russia on or around November 2024 to stop Trump from winning a second term in office.
I think that idea is rubbish.
It was the same Trump, after all, who was a slavish rubber stamp…
[….]
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 16 2024 16:35 utc | 2
It’s two things conflated with each other here — the events and the motivations behind them.
The activity of the last few days definitely points to major escalation coming. And it was kinetic too, with the downed A-50, which is about the third or fourth most escalatory action you can think of short of launching a nuclear war (the ones higher on the list being taking out an SSBN, conventional strikes on ICBM silos/TEL bases, and strikes on early warning systems).
But yeah, the whole “they will launch WWIII top stop Trump” thing is complete rubbish, as is the other variation on the same theme – “they will unleash another pandemic so that there is no election”. Look at the actual actions and think whether any of that makes sense. Trump was indeed a rubber stamp, and the other day that curly creature of indeterminate sexual orientation that plays the role of a White House spokesperson said bluntly that infection control is not something that the administration has any interest in regarding the still ongoing pandemic. How much sense does that make given that context for them to then turn around and lock us all down for a year so that the evil WEF globalists can gleefully watch our misery from the comfort of their mansions? Please…
And does anyone sane seriously believe that the Wall Street warmongers who actually run America would risk their own properties, families, and most importantly their stock options and bank accounts being reduced to radioactive ash in a nuclear WWIII?
Sure, but the problem is that what has already happened would not have happened if they were never going to risk it.
Because a nuclear war should have started according to official nuclear doctrine on about a dozen occasions already, and escalation continues.
Either they knew that official doctrine is BS, or they did in fact risk it and are risking it even more now.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 16 2024 17:25 utc | 18
@ Down South | Jan 16 2024 16:57 utc @ 9:
What will happen is that Ukraine will mobilize any warm live bodies it can find, with or without any mobilization bill. You think that some poor old bastard could get out of Volksturm because he didn’t fit the qualifications? If they said you were in, you were in.
Similarly, Europe may or may not deport Ukrainian refugees, but they will do everything to make the refugees’ stay as unpleasant as possible in hopes that they return.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Jan 16 2024 17:26 utc | 19
“As to NATO I am surprised how shortsighted and blindly loyal EU politicians are. EU is on the cusp of a move to the right, populists sense this and play national pride cards. I do not trust any geopolitical, long-term, wise or even rational ideas to win. Right now I am ashamed to be German, we all gave up on our democracy only to find the “lesser evil” is quite evil.
Posted by: SOS | Jan 16 2024 17:11 utc | 13″
Europeans like being slaves. The slave has no responsibilities, makes no decisions.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Jan 16 2024 17:28 utc | 20
He means to go after all these people running America
Posted by: Áobh Ó’Sheachnasaigh | Jan 16 2024 16:52 utc | 6
—
These people ??? ==> https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EF0FnZJXUAAI4p2.png
Posted by: too scents | Jan 16 2024 17:28 utc | 21
“Because a nuclear war should have started according to official nuclear doctrine on about a dozen occasions already, and escalation continues.
Either they knew that official doctrine is BS, or they did in fact risk it and are risking it even more now.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 16 2024 17:25 utc | 18”
The sociopaths running The West would gladly exterminate 99% of life on earth, if that were the price of dominion over whatever was left.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Jan 16 2024 17:35 utc | 22
Similarly, Europe may or may not deport Ukrainian refugees, but they will do everything to make the refugees’ stay as unpleasant as possible in hopes that they return.
I don’t doubt that they will try that, but when it comes to choosing between:
(1) being sent to your death in the most awful way possible, and
(2) some mild hazing and maybe cutting off benefit checks
My guess is the Eurotards will fail to remove the leeches attached to their legs.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 16 2024 17:38 utc | 23
some mild hazing and maybe cutting off benefit checks
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 16 2024 17:38 utc | 23
—
In the absence of asylum forced deportation is perfectly legal.
Posted by: too scents | Jan 16 2024 17:46 utc | 24
@24 – I doubt there will be many forced deportations. Ukrainian refugees can claim asylum status and lawyer up. There will be lots of bureaucracy and red tape; it might take years. Even Kallas (Estonia) admitted as such.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 16 2024 17:48 utc | 25
” He apparently takes the idea seriously that NATO will begin a major and direct war with Russia on or around November 2024 to stop Trump from winning a second term in office.”
Well the Trump POV may be futile, but there are real relevations also…
https://mvlehti.net/2023/03/09/suomen-sotavalmistelu-jatkuu-ilmahalytysjarjestelman-oltava-kunnossa-jopa-65-vuotiaat-etulinjaan-venajaa-vastaan/
Ofcourse, most of you don’t understand not even a word, but in the article there is video from finnish army seminar, where the speaker reveals by accident, or in purpose, that fighting is going to start soon, and everybody in the room are well aware of it. This video is made 22.3.2023. We are now in NATO, many of my collagues has been in additional military training in recent years… etc. Not a day without Russian threat shit and ancient stories about invincible finnish warriors against stupid soviet hordes. Something is brewing, and it is not nice…
Posted by: pavi | Jan 16 2024 17:52 utc | 26
Ukrainian refugees can claim asylum status and lawyer up.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 16 2024 17:48 utc | 25
—
Sure. Maybe they can get BlackRock to represent them as a class.
Posted by: too scents | Jan 16 2024 17:52 utc | 27
aquadraht | Jan 16 2024 16:48 utc | 5–
As a substack writer, IMO invoking “security issues” to justify a pay wall is nonsense as substack is responsible for securing its site. IMO, given his number of subscribers, substack may be pressuring him to increase the income it gets from his writings–substack gets 10%–as I’ve read reports that it engages in such behavior. I abhor paywalls, but will support those I deem worthy. My own policy is to keep my substack open while being grateful for any support I receive from readers deeming my content worthy.
As for his latest post, it complements the trash Larry Johnson exposed in his latest item. The USA has never delayed or postponed a national election, even during the Civil War, WW2, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan.
A point I’ll be writing about later is good governance leads to a strong nation while bad governance gets the opposite result that we see within all of NATO for the reasons I cited in my short note about Neoliberalism. I suspect much of the hatred directed at Russia and China is related to their outstanding governance, while the West is being killed by its Neoliberal parasites.
New types of Inferno carpet bombing drones used in Ukraine. They carry a bunch of grenades, released over enemy trenches.
https://sputnikglobe.com/20240116/russia-unleashes-carpet-bombing-of-ukrainian-positions-using-new-drones–1116196476.html
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 16 2024 17:56 utc | 29
Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 16 2024 17:52 utc | 28
Thanks karlof for your perspective on that and all your other comments too.
Posted by: migueljose | Jan 16 2024 18:01 utc | 30
Posted by: SOS | Jan 16 2024 17:11 utc | 13
Right now I am ashamed to be German, we all gave up on our democracy only to find the “lesser evil” is quite evil.
Weißt Du,Du musst Dich für nichts schämen als Deutscher.Schämen müssen sich die Kriegstreiber in den deutschen Parteien,die Kriegstreiber in den deutschen Medien.Die Steuerzahler,die unwidersprochen Milliarden Euros in die Ukraine transferieren lassen und hier zusehen,wie Menschen in die Tafeln getrieben werden-um zu überleben.Wie hier die Infrastruktur zusammenbricht…Zur Zeit schneit es ordentlich-aber Winterdienstfahrzeuge-Fehlanzeige.
Selbst in der DDR hat das weit besser funktioniert.In der BRD funktioniert nur noch die Bereicherung einer Minderheit auf Kosten der armen breiten Mehrheit,scheint mir.
Frdl.Grüße
Posted by: Oberbayer | Jan 16 2024 18:13 utc | 31
@ Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 16 2024 16:35 utc | 2
I’m with your opinion on that. However Potus’s rarely get to pick their Team. Lots of backers get a say. Their ‘National interests’.
Also the reason the SMO is not a ‘war’ is because of the SCO security treaty. A ‘war’ on any of its members is a war against all of them. Want to take on RF and China at the same time. The other Eurasians, Iran? Syria? The Global South new members?
All of them together?
Our current raving idiot shapeshifted defence minister aptly named Shapp (who used to use a shapeshift name Mike Green before he got himself inveigled into government) has claimed today that the world will be in a global war in 5 years!
What a twat? Ripping off Bowie! He knows was most of us do, the World war has been going on since 2001.
It’s nearly done. The pseudo military experts will be wandering fools for the rest of their lives.
Posted by: DunGroanin | Jan 16 2024 18:13 utc | 32
“Simplicius76’s latest article is mostly paywalled, so I’ve only read the free portion. He apparently takes the idea seriously that NATO will begin a major and direct war with Russia on or around November 2024 to stop Trump from winning a second term in office.
I think that idea is rubbish.”
Tucker thinks it likely, Alex Jones too. Used to be I would have doubted what either of them might say. Problem is, their track record is pretty good. Simplicius is not alone.
That I can see not a glimmer of a chance that NATO might somehow win an attack against Russia, Iran and China, well, that sort of makes it even more believable because these people are that crazy. And I don’t mean “crazy” coloquially; I mean it as in mentally ill. Neurologically, clinically sick. Weinstein talks about how they have lost the ability to reason. Yes, there is a lot of explanatory power in that conclusion.
And then there is the issue of actions speak louder than words. The EU, NATO and even the US playing Monty Python’s Black Knight. These players are not so much stupid as they are mentally ill; they cannot think. It’s one of those periods – like the witch hunts – where entire sections of humanity lose their ability to think and reason. Is there any way to recover short of those sections of humanity dying or being killed?
To Tucker, Simplicius and Jones, one can also add Brett Weinstein and Chris Martenson – though in a more toned down way.
If this is not possibly part of the picture, explain what it going on in the White House? I see deliberate policy to incite WW3. Tell me I’m wrong.
Posted by: oracle | Jan 16 2024 18:16 utc | 33
Posted by: Psycho | Jan 16 2024 15:49 utc | 1
A ukrainian shot one of the military men who wanted to break into his house and forcibly kidnap him and send him to the army.
—-
What would things have been like if every Security operative, when he went out at night to make an arrest, had been uncertain whether he would return alive and had to say good-bye to his family? Or if, during periods of mass arrests, as for example in Leningrad, when they arrested a quarter of the entire city, people had not simply sat there in their lairs, paling with terror at every bang of the downstairs door and at every step on the staircase, but had understood they had nothing left to lose and had boldly set up in the downstairs hall an ambush of half a dozen people with axes, hammers, pokers, or whatever else was at hand?… The Organs would very quickly have suffered a shortage of officers and transport and, notwithstanding all of Stalin’s thirst, the cursed machine would have ground to a halt!
A. Solzhenitsyn, “The Gulag Archipelago”
Not quite there yet, but it is a start.
Posted by: john brewster | Jan 16 2024 18:27 utc | 34
Posted by: Oberbayer | Jan 16 2024 18:13 utc | 31 Aber Oberbayer, unser Kapital wird eben vom Imperium verwaltet und in seinem Sinne eingesetzt. Dafür hat das Imperium bei uns seine Leute. Wenn die Investition unseres Kapitals in die Hose geht, weil die Russen z.B. dummerweise in der Ukraine gewinnen, dann ist zwar unser Wohlstand weniger geworden, aber den USA ist gar nichts passiert, ganz im Gegenteil. Aber warum sollten wir uns beklagen, das ist nun mal auch 80 Jahre später das Schicksal von Kriegsverlierern, den Japanern geht es ja auch nicht anders. Servus, Oberbayer.
Posted by: Upper Bavaria | Jan 16 2024 6:13 pm UTC | 31 But Upper Bavaria, our capital is managed by the empire and used in its interests. That’s why the Empire has its people with us. If the investment of our capital goes wrong because the Russians stupidly win in Ukraine, for example, then our prosperity will have decreased, but nothing will happen to the USA, quite the opposite. But why should we complain, that’s the fate of war losers even 80 years later, and the Japanese are no different. Hello, Upper Bavaria. (Google Trans)
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Jan 16 2024 18:31 utc | 35
osted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 16 2024 16:35 utc | 2
It was the same Trump, after all, who was a slavish rubber stamp of zionist interests and the military industrial complex,
You are wrong. They did everything possible to prevent Trump from doing what he wanted and needed to do. They completely neutered him. Why do ypu think they – the deep state – are so afraid of him? He means to go after all these people running America, serving the MIC and perpetuating the forever-wars.
Posted by: Áobh Ó’Sheachnasaigh | Jan 16 2024 16:52 utc | 6
I agree.
Trump hired Bolton because he wanted a bad cop so he could be the good cop.
How many wars did Trump start?
He tried to evacuate the troops out of Syria but the generals didn’t do it.
However, I don’t like the Zionist leaning he has I hope he drops Jared.
#6 – @aobh
You are exactly correct. The POWER that Trump wields is the same power that supported the king — THE PEOPLE. That really is all he has. His party hates him. Everyone in the regime hates him. As well as the media. Certain oligarchs tolerate him. That’s it. The only reason he hasn’t been JFK’d yet is I think because certain Zionist factions both here and Israel will not allow it.
#33 – @oracle I tend to agree. Yes, in all those wars the US never suspended elections. Guess what never happened as well – a former PRESIDENT being CRIMINALLY PROSECUTED for ridiculous made up crimes.
We are in uncharted territory. And if you don’t feel it, I don’t know what you’re looking at, especially considering the well read and intelligent people that comment here.
When you realize that the regime HATES its own people, there is nothing they won’t do. Real genocide, biological warfare, false flags, terror, civil strife. ANYTHING and everything is possible. I hope that Trump’s campaign can really drive that message home. Your government HATES you and is working towards your destruction and replacement and they have started telling it to your face.
So what are you going to do?? Fight and die for the “flag”?? What a joke.
Posted by: Johnny | Jan 16 2024 18:42 utc | 37
One final comment, the regime is not lashing out at Trump per se. His 2016 election might have been the last free election in America.
If not for him breaking the conditioning and crazy surprise win that completely surprised the machinations of the regime, the globalists/regimists would have had TOTAL CONTROL over all levers of USA government. Supreme Court, etc. Would have been unstoppable.
This is the globalists vs. the multilateralists. Zionists vs. any other world view. It’s starting to add up to all the marbles because the latter has gotten so much stronger because the former has been so parasitic on the population that made the West strong. And the natives are waking up to the game, slowly but surely. It’s why white recruitment in the military is dropping like a rock.
It’s a forever game that started in earnest in the 1700s and we shall see where it goes. Trust me, these demonic freaks will absolutely start WWIII to see their plans through. FFS folks, they already started two world wars in the last 100 years or so!!!
Posted by: Johnny | Jan 16 2024 18:50 utc | 38
@Oberbayer
“Weißt Du,Du musst Dich für nichts schämen als Deutscher.”
Doch, man muss sich als Deutscher heutzutage schon schämen. So, wie sich Schopenhauer geschämt hat:
„Ich lege hier für den Fall meines Todes das Bekenntnis ab, dass ich die deutsche Nation wegen ihrer überschwänglichen Dummheit verachte und mich schäme, ihr anzugehören.“
Posted by: Apollyon | Jan 16 2024 18:53 utc | 39
NATO can easily wage war against Russia by attacking from Poland or Romania via long range rockets. Russi wont dare tovrespond due to Article 5. of NATO.
Posted by: zorge | Jan 16 2024 18:54 utc | 40
“However Potus’s rarely get to pick their Team. Lots of backers get a say. Their ‘National interests’”
So, why was Trump’s staffing such a clownshow?
Anyway, Trump didn’t start any wars, but he did escalate existing wars, and the only reason he didn’t start any new wars was the extreme forbearance shown by Russia, Syria and Iran.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Jan 16 2024 18:55 utc | 41
Aleks from Black Mountain Analysis just dropped a new article about Ukraine. He doesn’t be as concerned as others regarding a possible NATO escalation. Worth reading: https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/ukraine-and-the-middle-east-i
My suggestion in regards to Trump is to keep your expectations extremely low. Mine were pushing a bit the brakes or at least not pushing the gas pedal on certain issues which he sort of did; at this turn the best he could do is getting the gears of the US government to turn against each other.
In regards to Israel I would expect more of the same.
Posted by: Satepestage | Jan 16 2024 19:12 utc | 43
Unfortunately, even today we have not learned from MoD what happened to our A-50 and Il-22 planes. Nor have we learnt the names of the heroes, the fallen and the survivors … I don’t argue, but it’s a shame for the guys. And the truth.
https://t.me/sitreports/21249
Posted by: Down South | Jan 16 2024 16:59 utc | 10
Sasha Kots’ post 44464 echos that sentiment. The information policy of the RF unfortunately resembles the information policy of the USA, much to the annoyance of those close to the warriors. There is no military secret here, NATO knows what was hit, whether friendly fire or by NATO, what landed and what did not. The information policies are focused on manipulating domestic public opinion. Therefore Lloyd Austin is living with prostate cancer, but cannot be photographed. The heroes who landed the IL-22 go unsung. And no A-50 is missing, no need to admit the most likely possibility of friendly fire, or some other lapse of awareness.
Kotsnews
By plane
In Sevastopol, on the Northern Side, there is a Mass cemetery where Russian soldiers who fell during the Crimean War are buried. As well as sailors who died in the Great Patriotic War. On the dominant pyramid stands St. Nicholas Church, which is also a monument to the defenders of Sevastopol.
On the outer walls of the temple hang plates on which the names of the units that participated in the defense of the city, their numbers and the number of dead are stamped. And inside on marble boards are engraved the names of the crews of the lost ships, the names of officers, generals and admirals killed during the defense of Sevastopol in 1854-1855. We didn’t think then what the British or Turks would say about our losses.
Today, we have some inexplicable information pallor against the background of our ancestors-whether it is the death of the flagship of the fleet or the DLRO aircraft… There is a fallen A-50, there is a rescued Il-22. With such a heroic story that films can be made. Yes, there was a tragedy, but the dedication with which the crew fought for their car, sorry for the cynicism, information beats the Ukrainian antics backhand.
In the end, they will make faces anyway. And we will see nothing but this antics. And they could, if they organized a decent send-off for the fallen. And in-depth interviews with survivors on all the central TV channels.
And we, unlike Ukraine, will still build planes. We don’t need to beg for them abroad. And the Ukrainian would definitely win. Maybe at least then we can name all the fallen by name. Without fear of what the enemy will think about it.
@sashakots
Posted by: Drifter | Jan 16 2024 19:13 utc | 44
@ zorge | Jan 16 2024 18:54 utc | 40
Never thought I’s have to say this, but I think you should stick to cribbing Dima.
Posted by: malenkov | Jan 16 2024 19:14 utc | 45
Simplicius76’s latest article is mostly paywalled, so I’ve only read the free portion. He apparently takes the idea seriously that NATO will begin a major and direct war with Russia on or around November 2024 to stop Trump from winning a second term in office.
I think that idea is rubbish.
And does anyone sane seriously believe that the Wall Street warmongers who actually run America would risk their own properties, families, and most importantly their stock options and bank accounts being reduced to radioactive ash in a nuclear WWIII?
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 16 2024 16:35 utc | 2
Same as shadowbanned:
1. try to look competent for the western audience
2. fearmongering and cherry picking arguments
Posted by: schkid | Jan 16 2024 19:17 utc | 46
Posted by: zorge | Jan 16 2024 18:54 utc | 40
NATO can easily wage war against Russia by attacking from Poland or Romania via long range rockets. Russi wont dare tovrespond due to Article 5. of NATO.
stupidest comment I’ve read in a awhile….. that Article 5 was be a fearsome thing indeed if Russian won’t defend itself against attacks from NATO Perhaps Russia should just surrender already and beg for mercy…
Posted by: ctiger | Jan 16 2024 19:18 utc | 47
Posted by: zorge | Jan 16 2024 18:54 utc | 40
That is one of the most naive statements I ever read here. Polite enough?
Posted by: SOS | Jan 16 2024 19:18 utc | 48
karlof1 | Jan 16 2024 17:52 utc | 28
Possibly his own computer getting hit rather than the site. When the username troll was hitting me hard, my computer was also getting hit. Ended up pulling the battery out and just run it of the mains rather than battery backup for a short power outage and that way I could just hit the switch on the wall or pull the plug to instantly cut the power. When the name usurper stopped hitting me the problems with my computer also stopped.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 16 2024 19:19 utc | 49
Regardless of what Trump is, a president can’t do jack shit – he’s a lame duck if he doesn’t have power in the senate and congress. There is approval of presidential appointees ect. State department, intel ect. Only deep state vetted appointees allowed.
The only way the US can change internaly through political means is for a new party to gain the presidency the congress and the senate, and then it may… possibly be possible to destroy the deep state.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 16 2024 19:28 utc | 50
Posted by: Drifter | Jan 16 2024 19:13 utc | 44
If they acknowledge the loss the A-50, they need to explain how it was lost.
And then they have two options:
1) Say it was friendly fire (the current unofficial version)
2) Admit NATO shot it down
Both options are bad.
If they say it was friendly fire, they need to explain how the VKS is so incompetent that it shot down its own AWACS plane. You know, the thing that lights up on radar the way the Sun shines around noon. Or to explain how it is that there was a traitor in the AD (the other possibility). Again, both options are bad
If they say NATO shot it down, then they have to start shooting NATO ISR or just publicly admit to the whole world that NATO is attacking them and scoring major hits on strategic assets, but they will not be resisting. Everyone should be able to see why that is bad.
So what are the choices?
Be a man and tell the truth or slowly die bit by bit like a coward while staying silent?
It’s a very long series of such episodes now:
1. The Moscow — sunk by NATO. Never acknowledged, never responded to in kind.
2. Every HIMARS hit is done directly by NATO. Including dozens of acts of mass murder of Russian civilians. Kremlin is silent.
3. North Stream. Putin finally admitted the US did it more than a year after the fact.
4. The attacks on Engels, Dyagilevo and Shaykovka (again, this is the kind of thing over which nuclear strikes are supposed to be launched, and it was done three times)
5. Countless attacks with drones and even missiles on nuclear power plants in mainland Russia (most morons here aren’t even aware of those). Again the kind of thing over which nuclear strikes are carried out
6. The Kremlin was bombed. Silence from the Kremlin.
7. The Khakhovka dam. The Kremlin actively concealed what happened there, because, again, it would have to respond.
8. Multiple Il-76 planes destroyed in Pskov from NATO territory. Again concealed
9. All the Storm Shadow hits.
10. Now this.
And presumably many others that we don’t know about.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 16 2024 19:33 utc | 51
I participated in my Republican district U.S. presidential preference caucus in Iowa’s capital city last night. Very orderly and efficiently run operation. Much discussion and stump speeches provided by candidate surrogates. Immigration, the economy, and ending support of carnage in Ukraine and the ME were the top issues. People are fed up and desperate for change. Trump won 98 out of 99 Iowa counties. Historic. In the one county (home of a liberal University) that did not go to Trump, establishment candidate Nikki Haley led by one vote at last count.
Posted by: UBAH | Jan 16 2024 19:35 utc | 52
Posted by: zorge | Jan 16 2024 18:54 utc | 40
you know, we have a saying in germany from a well known comedian: “wenn man keine ahnung hat, einfach mal die fresse halten!”
have you even read up what article 5 is saying, or do you just parrot what the guaridan and newsweek are telling you to believe?
Posted by: Justpassinby | Jan 16 2024 19:39 utc | 53
Posted by: Augusto Pi | Jan 16 2024 16:53 utc | 7
Simplicius is getting the way of Dreizin: writing outrageous stuff so that people pay his subscription and feel they have some “special” knowledge
Once Dreizin built up a substantial following, he began to insult basically all of his competition, including just about anyone who invited him on to their podcasts, and insulted his readers who weren’t coughing up enough money. The last couple months have just been him calling himself a god and telling everyone how great he is, how full of shit everyone else is, and that he’s taking his special insights behind a paywall and you better hurry up and pay if you want to be able to “see behind the curtain.”
As they say, a fool and his money are soon parted.
Posted by: Frank McGar | Jan 16 2024 19:40 utc | 54
Not just Michael Green. He also moonlighted as Corinne Stockheath and Sebastian Fox. How such a person can have held so many high offices astounds me. But this is Thatcherite Britain, bent on shredding civil society and returning us to serfdom, so plumbing the depths is normal.
Posted by: Bramble | Jan 16 2024 19:43 utc | 55
Part of our problem generally as citizen analysts is that we can at best see through the glass darkly. This is because most of our governance systems are relatively occluded. (One of the few advantages of monarchy is that final authority is invested in a single human being who cannot hide and can be easily overthrown.)
Is Trump a tool of the Deep State or a threat, part of the plan or a political accident? Is any escalation, which as shadowbanned points out has already occurred, dangerous or is the conflict somehow contained as per Simplicius’ recent report? Meanwhile, as karlof1 writes, the Global South security treaty makes old-fashioned kinetic world war unlikely.
One of war’s purposes is cover for elites consolidating wealth and control whilst The People believe themselves engaged in a life or death struggle. What if there is an emerging global elite changing the social contract whilst using global emergencies as cover?
As with Trump in the US, it is hard to discern what is real versus performative. How credible is lawfare’s threat against him or is it all elaborate kayfabe – and if so is he in on it or not? This sort of ‘through the glass darkly’ uncertainty holds true in the geopolitical theatre too.
So there may well come further escalation but perhaps mainly for show to hoodwink populations into a state of existential anxiety prior to their being ‘mass formationed’ into some sort of more totalitarian CBDC-enabled configuration.
Posted by: Drifter | Jan 16 2024 19:13 utc | 44
IF Austin was hit in Ukraine, why doesn’t the RF crow about it?
Christoforou throws out an oddball guess, that the downing of the A50 and the hit of the IL22 was USA reprisal for the RF hit on Austin. It’s creative thinking at least, at best he goes to the head of the class.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 16 2024 19:55 utc | 58
Scorpion @ 57
IF Austin was hit in Ukraine, why doesn’t the RF crow about it?
Are you really asking that??? You haven’t noticed there’s a rather distinct difference btwn RF (and China) and the west on how they handle things? That is not like grade school children.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 16 2024 19:59 utc | 59
There is still no proof of any downing of Russian A-50.
And there was a video of cargo allegedly burning on a ship yesterday in the Red Sea on the Duran that turned out to be a fake or really from 2018:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-asia-57244173
Beware the fakers!
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 16 2024 20:09 utc | 60
Posted by: SOS | Jan 16 2024 17:11 utc | 13
Posted by: Oberbayer | Jan 16 2024 18:13 utc | 31
Posted by: Apollyon | Jan 16 2024 18:53 utc | 39
https://cjhopkins.substack.com/p/meet-the-thought-police
Meet the Thought Police
CJ Hopkins
Jan 16
So, my trial for thoughtcrimes in New Normal Germany takes place next Tuesday, January 23rd. It will likely be a one-day affair. It’s open to the public, so, if you’re in Berlin, you can come and watch at the Berlin District Court, Turmstraße 91, Room 371. The proceedings are scheduled to begin at 12:00 noon.
Yes, that’s right, the German authorities are actually putting me on trial for my thoughtcrimes. I stand accused of criminal tweeting because I mocked the New Normal German authorities and pointed out one of their many lies.
Here are the two thoughtcrime Tweets at issue. [Image…]
The one on the left reads, “The masks are ideological-conformity symbols. That is all they are. That is all they have ever been. Stop acting like they have ever been anything else, or get used to wearing them.” The one on the right is a quote by Karl Lauterbach, who, believe it or not, is still the Health Minister of Germany. It reads “The masks always send out a signal.”
The image is from the cover art of my book The Rise of the New Normal Reich: Consent Factory Essays, Vol. III (2020-2021), which was banned in Germany by Amazon, Inc. two days after I tweeted those Tweets … which was also when the German authorities launched the criminal investigation that led to my prosecution and instructed Twitter to censor the Tweets.
Christoforou throws out an oddball guess, that the downing of the A50 and the hit of the IL22 was USA reprisal for the RF hit on Austin. It’s creative thinking at least, at best he goes to the head of the class.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 16 2024 19:55 utc | 58
Not how it works.
If Austin was taken out (hopefully he was), that should be considered payback for the mass murder in Belgorod.
The A-50 is a whole new level of escalation.
No single US (or Russian) citizen other than the president is worth as much as one such plane is worth for Russia. And the only reason the president is so important is the control over the nuclear launh codes that he has.
Secretary of Defense dies? Doesn’t affect strategic defense one iota.
A-50 is shot down? Suddenly there is a big hole somewhere in AWACS coverage over the vast Russian borders, which was already inadequate to begin with, but now will be inadequate even over really vital sites.
Notice that the A-50 entered the SMO only after the delivery of another such plane in September 2023, i.e. only after that could it be risked to such an extent.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 16 2024 20:11 utc | 62
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 16 2024 19:59 utc | 59
Scorpion @ 57
IF Austin was hit in Ukraine, why doesn’t the RF crow about it?
Are you really asking that??? You haven’t noticed there’s a rather distinct difference btwn RF (and China) and the west on how they handle things? That is not like grade school children.
Respectfully, that’s not much of an answer.
Consider: it might wake the American people up that
a) their SECDEF is waging war where it hasn’t been declared and
b) was injured but their government does believe they have any need to know
(Also, they could leak the info quite easily, not necessarily publish it themselves.)
1. IF it happened, then likely the RF is respecting usual convention among leaders in that both sides keep their populations on a ‘need to know’ basis – which is not very much.
2. Or: it’s a false story.
So what are the choices?
Be a man and tell the truth or slowly die bit by bit like a coward while staying silent?
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 16 2024 19:33 utc | 51
Pretty much, after all, the enemy already knows exactly what happened in each case. Kissinger/CIA/Nixon’s ‘Secret War’ on Cambodia and Laos was not secret at all to the people being bombed, or to Russia and China. The point was to lie to the Western public to avoid domestic political repercussions.
The loss of the old Moskva cruiser remains a mystery after nearly 2 years. Sabotage remains one of the possibilities as NATO’s claims regarding the sinking are very unlikely.
The loss of the Novocherkassk landing ship also is strange. There are no witness or video reports of a missile. Was this ageing asset (but $300 million, 5 years to replace) lost to a storm shadow for the want of a Pantsir system at the port? Or was that event sabotage? In any case, the huge secondary explosions and complete destruction of the ship suggest poor opsec at the port and some treason leading to NATO being informed of the cargo. Recall last September the much less severe damage to the old Minsk landing ship hit by cruise missile in dry dock.
So, I do agree with Sasha Kots. The people of the RF are paying for this not war in blood, sweat, and treasure. This type of secrecy protects bureaucrats but is a negative for domestic morale.
Posted by: Drifter | Jan 16 2024 20:17 utc | 65
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 16 2024 19:55 utc | 58
I didn’t think it needed saying … it’s two guesses piled on top of each other but it does account for events.
It fits US logic but is hardly symmetrical because not only is Austin of no actual military value but RF wouldn’t have hit anywhere they suspected him of being because even his accidental injury would be trouble for no benefit, hence RF not crowing of that is the case.
From the RF perspective, Austin isn’t currently a legitimate target and someone at his level might never be a legitimate individual target because by that point it’d be all out war.
Posted by: anon | Jan 16 2024 20:20 utc | 66
Posted by: anon | Jan 16 2024 20:20 utc | 66
Oops, that was me.
Posted by: anon2020 | Jan 16 2024 20:21 utc | 67
Peter AU1 | Jan 16 2024 19:19 utc | 49–
Thanks for your reply. A pay wall isn’t going to help a home security issue either. If someone wants to attack you, they can pay the subscription, hack into substack to get whatever info it can, then cancel the subscription. We writers don’t handle the payment side at all. We enroll with a third party that does the collecting and disbursement. Simplicius’s main site has over 20K subscribers by his admission; I have 1450. It’s the $$, IMO.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 16 2024 17:25 utc | 18
“The activity of the last few days definitely points to major escalation coming.”
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 16 2024 19:33 utc | 51
“It’s a very long series of such episodes now: 1…10”
We are still at provocation by escalation, but the options are limited to Russia. “…then they have to start shooting NATO ISR…” will not work, since NATO has air superiority outside Russia, that’s why downing the A50 or the SU34 makes it even worse. Russia does not produce larger aircraft any longer and the fighters are produced in miniscule numbers. So for now Russia has to suck it up, if they retaliate outside the war zone, the West gets to choose their move. And I am sure they are ready to strike.
Posted by: Gonzo | Jan 16 2024 20:24 utc | 69
🇷🇺📞🇮🇷 Today, the Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation General of the Army Sergei Shoigu held telephone talks with the Minister of Defence and and Armed Forces Logistics of the Islamic Republic of Iran Brigadier General Mohammad Ashtiani .
During the talks, topical issues of bilateral military and military-technical cooperation were discussed, as well as an exchange of views on regional security issues was held.
The Head of the Russian Defence Ministry General of the Army Sergei Shoigu noted that Moscow and Tehran are consistently building up joint efforts in the interests of constructing a truly equal multipolar world.
The parties stressed their commitment to the fundamental principles of Russian-Iranian relations, including absolute respect for each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, which will be confirmed in the upcoming Great Interstate Treaty between the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran.
https://t.me/ZandVchannel/96238
Posted by: Ed | Jan 16 2024 20:31 utc | 70
Looks like further escalation is at hand from the RF side if the downing of the A-50 is indeed true, at the end of the day Putin will have to decide if the Black Sea/Sea of Azov is something he wants to have in his military sphere or not.
The US/UK have continually escalated in this region with very little visible response, Russia is very muted in terms of visible responses as that is their strategy. The only real harsh response I have seen is the series of responses after the Belgorod Cluster munitions attack, that seems to have crossed some agreed upon red line because it looks like foreign personnel got hit in that hotel attack, so Russia/Kremlin/Putin will respond if they are forced to do so.
The key here is forced, if they don’t admit the loss of the A-50 then they don’t have to respond, this is a curious strategy to me because this is a key strategic asset that if it is open season on will leave the Russians strategically vulnerable. I think Putin still has not accepted that the US/UK are all in on this and they have adapted their escalation strategy towards a slow motion destruction of his strategic assets in the Black Sea. I suspect soon he will forced to respond military to the ISR drones in the Black Sea if they haven’t already, it will have to be public.
The NATO choice to bring down this A-50 plane leaves Putin with few choices but to respond in some public way. It’s pretty clear to me that there will have to be a bloody nose given to NATO by the Russians at some point. The bullshit about NATO being on a hair-trigger has been false since the beginning, look at the Houthis and the Iranians responding to each aggression, granted Russian responses are going to be of a different caliber as I suspect they will be much more deadly to I understand Putin needs to be careful but it’s unavoidable.
Posted by: silverfox48 | Jan 16 2024 20:38 utc | 71
Thanks for your reply. A pay wall isn’t going to help a home security issue either. If someone wants to attack you, they can pay the subscription, hack into substack to get whatever info it can, then cancel the subscription. We writers don’t handle the payment side at all. We enroll with a third party that does the collecting and disbursement. Simplicius’s main site has over 20K subscribers by his admission; I have 1450. It’s the $$, IMO.
Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 16 2024 20:24 utc | 68
Askeptic started some days ago doing the same, limiting the free part (after some days/weeks limiting the breaking news), pay the piper, or don’t, there are just a couple of substaks who provided as much for non subscribers.
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 16 2024 20:39 utc | 72
In Davos there were again many pathetic statements that the West will support Ukraine. Later, official releases appeared that the US Administration is working with Congress to ensure that Ukraine receives the necessary assistance to counter the Russian Federation, and hopes that legislators will reach an agreement on this issue in the coming weeks. Zelensky said that he is confident in the help of the United States and the EU, which will provide the promised funding.
But the reality is completely far from public statements, January is already ending, and we have not received funding from the US and EU, and in the evening a statement was released that the US is not working on new packages of military assistance to Ukraine, the White House said.
Now let’s move on to analytics and hard forecasts that can be given by objective experts outside the Office of the President.
A year ago, it was clear that the Ukrainian case would be the main one in the US presidential election campaign, which means the Republicans would use the Democrats’ mistakes against Biden! All previous assistance was allocated by the Democrats, which means that Biden and his Administration bear responsibility for wasting resources without results.
Last year, Republicans gained a majority in Congress and the right to formulate the budget, which caused it to be delayed in order to limit the Biden Administration’s ability to do so. Now, if the Republicans support funding for Ukraine, it means that Trump will not be able to use this in the election campaign as an accusation against Biden’s unreasonable spending, but in order to beautifully justify their refusal, they decided to tie all issues to the border.
The Biden administration cannot agree on the demands of the Republicans, since the majority of migrants support Biden, which means this will be reflected in the votes; it is easier for Democrats to blame the Republicans for the failure in the Ukrainian case, especially considering the fact that the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine failed and there is 0 chance of success!
Forecast, we will not receive 60 billion from the United States, a maximum of 5-7 billion, which will be a signal to the EU elites, which means they will not approve a package of 50 billion, at best they will allocate 7-9 billion.
As a result, we are left without real military assistance and minimal funding, which is not critical for the budget of Ukraine, but we will have to solve social payments, evade taxes and devalue the hryvnia to 50 per dollar!
https://t.me/rezident_ua/21223
Posted by: Down South | Jan 16 2024 20:39 utc | 73
Supporting Ukraine against the Russian invasion is the right thing to do, but I suspect some strategic thinkers wish to avoid a Russian internal collapse.
A slow bleeding is better that a decisive blow, that would likely also bring down the current leadership in the Kremlin. The CCCP is the strategic threat that could grow faster as they plunder a fractured Russia.
Posted by: Kalmartard | Jan 16 2024 20:46 utc | 74
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 16 2024 19:55 utc | 58
Related questions of premeditation can be asked of the Dec. 30th Belgorod cluster bomb attack that provoked the big Russian missile barrage that undoubtedly claimed the lives of someone’s high ranking military personnel.
Was the cluster bomb attack ordered by some western faction precisely because they knew that high ranking westerner were in Ukraine over the New Year on just the sort of shiteating meet-and-greet one ought to expect as NATO seeks to glad-handle its doomed protégé into demographic oblivion.
Should friends and well-wishers of Austin be looking at the curators of the Belgorod attack for their culprits?
Posted by: anon2020 | Jan 16 2024 20:51 utc | 75
Posted by: oracle | Jan 16 2024 18:16 utc | 33
I agree with what you stated.
This “elite” group in power loathes the common man so much, It has impaired any sense of morality towards us. We are no more than mere “cockroaches”.
Anybody who had ever had to deal with “a Psycho” in their life knows, the mind games they play, and understand their willingness to destroy, including “all” if need be. Right now we have a whole group of them running the show. They show the signs.
More pushback against Globalization, = more suffering for the common man. They’re going to make it rough for us, just because they can.
Trump this Trump that…will make no difference. Postpone an election… first time for everything.
because they can. Who’s going to stop them?
Posted by: heavymetal101 | Jan 16 2024 20:54 utc | 76
Ed | Jan 16 2024 20:31 utc | 70
I had read that and was the basis for some of my comments. Very down key title but I feel it will be along the lines of the Russia China unlimited partnership as stated by the two leaders
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 16 2024 20:55 utc | 77
” Simplicius76’s latest article is mostly paywalled, so I’ve only read the free portion. He apparently takes the idea seriously that NATO will begin a major and direct war with Russia on or around November 2024 to stop Trump from winning a second term in office.
I think that idea is rubbish.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 16 2024 16:35 utc | 2 ”
Seems Simpi is just throwing sh+t at the fan seeing what will possibly stick later. After all, hes got to give his subscribers “meat” so they’ll stick around. The Shekel rules after all.
Posted by: Moonie | Jan 16 2024 20:58 utc | 78
The CCCP is the strategic threat that could grow faster as they plunder a fractured Russia.
Posted by: Kalmartard | Jan 16 2024 20:46 utc | 73
western education at its finest. either you mean CPC, or you wrote the cyrillic name for the SSSR, which is a thing of the past. congratulations.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Jan 16 2024 20:58 utc | 79
” You are wrong. They did everything possible to prevent Trump from doing what he wanted and needed to do. They completely neutered him. Why do ypu think they – the deep state – are so afraid of him?
Posted by: Áobh Ó’Sheachnasaigh | Jan 16 2024 16:52 utc | 6 ”
Give it up already. His main adviser, and right hand man, was a Chabad Zionist. Enough said.
Posted by: Moonie | Jan 16 2024 21:00 utc | 80
by too scents | Jan 16 2024 17:07 utc | 11
Cool tip, thanks. I used SDR a lot, 25+ years ago on a pretty minimal Linux laptop. We have been listening to a German Police tactics during the squat evictions and demonstrations, in Berlin, Hamburg and Amsterdam.
In the The Netherlands we used SDR and a sat dish to tap into the Dutch police heli cam’s live stream that we managed to broadcast live on a local Amsterdam Community TV channel.
That was a real democracy delivered by technology.
In Den Haag, in a Post Museum there is a collection of radio pirate transmitters snatched by RDD a Radio-Controle-Dienst. From the toaster, vacuum cleaner to the stuffed sheep. Also some radio pirates were using steel railroad tracks for antennas. Sometimes the seek, triangulate, waterfall track and such didn’t work, as Dutch radio pirates were super smart and most of the people from both sides knew each other well.
Here is one tip from me, assuming you might already know it. It also mentions a necessary radio silence discipline.
A very good Russian production docu episode 11, about the Bagration op. A Great Patriotic War was more complex than people in the West have narrative for, in their mainly trashy docus and features.
Also relevant today, as it once more shows a path to how it all ends in Ukraine.
Watch it here.
Posted by: whirlX | Jan 16 2024 21:00 utc | 81
The one big thing that Russia has that no one else has is the scram jet hypersonic missile tech.
China has had boost glide for some time and a basic rocket powered Kinzhal style missile is not out of reach for others apart from mach 2.5 aircraft to launch them.
But for targeting any moving target at extreme range such as a ship, good ISR is required so that is something else that may well be shared.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 16 2024 21:01 utc | 82
” from abroad. Accordingly, Zelensky is actively discussing the deportation of men of military age with the Baltic and Eastern European countries. The same Prime Minister of Estonia Kaja Kallas admitted that she spoke with Vladimir Zelensky on this issue, but ruled out the expulsion of Ukrainian citizens, since they are in Estonia legally. “We will definitely not do anything to extradite them. This is Ukraine’s task – to contact the people who are here and invite them back,” Kallas said.
Posted by: Down South | Jan 16 2024 16:57 utc | 9 ”
This whole deportation proposal would destroy the notion of ” UN ” mandated human rights. Isnt it illegal to deport refugees back to active war zones where there is a chance they might be killed ? If you can force Ukrainians to go back why not Syrians ? Iraqis ? Somalis and so forth.
Posted by: Moonie | Jan 16 2024 21:04 utc | 83
And I am sure they are ready to strike.
Posted by: Gonzo | Jan 16 2024 20:24 utc | 69
Yes, of course. But are you also prepared to shrug off a few Russian nuclear strikes on military bases and airports?
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Jan 16 2024 21:05 utc | 84
Who will do me the pleasure to get rid of sh’s and zg’s comments definitively?
They bring nothing but lies, propaganda and stupidities.
Posted by: Naive | Jan 16 2024 21:07 utc | 85
RE: Trump, let’s not forget he greenlit arms transfers to Ukraine (reversal of previous policy) and moved the US embassy to Jerusalem in one of the most egregious acts of bending the knee to the Zionists and Netanyahu. And his White House included not just Bolton but arch-neocon Eliott Abrams. American imperialism is bipartisan.
Posted by: Gengar | Jan 16 2024 21:08 utc | 86
whirlX | Jan 16 2024 21:00 utc | 80
Very interesting. I noticed an article in oz ABC the other day about a town or city somewhere purchasing a new helicopter with encrypted radio equipment. Price of coms for the helicopter 13 million off memory just so the crims they were after couldn’t listen in.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 16 2024 21:13 utc | 87
If Austin was hit in Ukraine I don’t think he was targeted, he could have just been in the wrong place at the wrong time, I totally agree he’s not worth the effort, no govt. official in the west is, they are interchangeable clowns at this point, e.g. foreign minster of France has no foreign policy training or experience, the Russians know Austin is just a woke figurehead for the US Army. The attack on the Russians planes would have been a target of opportunity, they would have had it planned for a long time irrespective of pay back, just part of the escalation, if NATO does intend to enter the fray they need air supremacy or at least parity and winnowing RF air surveillance would be part of it.
Strange they sent Austin home, doing fine, but no photo of him being wheeled out of the hospital smiling and waving to well wishers. In fact it’s very strange and very out of tradition for the US govt and media, this stuff used to be boilerplate PR.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 16 2024 21:16 utc | 88
Russi wont dare tovrespond due to Article 5. of NATO.
Posted by: zorge | Jan 16 2024 18:54 utc | 40
Article 5. of NATO, or maybe the US and NATO company will vote under Chapter 7 of the UN charter to attacking themselves “from Poland or Romania via long range rockets”, hilarious dorge.
Posted by: SlowDL | Jan 16 2024 21:22 utc | 89
Beware of bloggers whose motives you can’t easily identify.
IMO Simplicius is opportunist that becomes “expert” in topic that is hot: before his “expertise” in military matters (anyone spending few hours a day reading stuff online can achieve similar or greater dubious knowledge) he was expert in “Futurism, transhumanism, technology, transmissions from the underground.” etc on his other blog. Didn’t bother to search other blogs of his on other topics, if any.
So, jack of all “most current things” it seems. For money or propaganda or other motives, you decide. My 2c.
Posted by: Abe | Jan 16 2024 21:32 utc | 90
Gengar | Jan 16 2024 21:08 utc | 85
Trumps targets were China and Iran. The only difference between him and the deep state hack/ western elite in general was that he was not a crazy suicide bomber and his horizon was very limited rather than total dominance of the entire world.
As far as his military moves, that I think was as much part of the art of the deal as was the fact that he would most likely strike militarily if he thought the opponent was weak. Take NK. great rattling of the dogs or war against rocket man then he flies to NK for a meet with young Kim. The only US president ever to do so.
Iran he would have hit, but Russia said nyet so that was the end of that plan. But the point is, he needed Russia’s nod or blind eye to do so which was the purpose of the Jerusalem meet.
He uses American wrestling optics but he uses that to set the stage for a deal. Apart from Iran. Syrian oil? He took that because he could. Russia was not going to launch a war over it.
Not a nice man but not a crazy either. Basically if youy can’t hit back, he will eat you, if you can hit back, he will do a deal.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 16 2024 21:34 utc | 91
The bullshit about NATO being on a hair-trigger has been false since the beginning, look at the Houthis and the Iranians responding to each aggression, granted Russian responses are going to be of a different caliber as I suspect they will be much more deadly to I understand Putin needs to be careful but it’s unavoidable.
Posted by: silverfox48 | Jan 16 2024 20:38 utc | 71
Neither the Houthi nor Iran constitute a direct threat to the US mainland. Russia does. Russia has to be more careful because of this, because the US doesn’t have the conventional forces for gradual escalation vs Russia. The US is attempting to play closer to the brink of nuclear war than Russia, leaving them no room for response that is below the nuclear threshold.
The American nuclear threshold has been made deliberately obscure, and when you factor in xtian zionist eschatology and the unknown fraction of the WEF that actually thinks they’ll benefit from a massive global population reduction, other nuclear powers need to be circumspect. This is especially true of Russia, because unlike the other nuclear powers that oppose the US, Russia has the capability to annihilate the human species in an afternoon, and any nuclear attack by the US must therefore be on a scale capable of preventing that. The fact that is not technically feasible doesn’t change the underling US calculus- if Russia uses nukes first, the US will go directly to full-scale nuclear war.
One reason for this is that should there be a limited nuclear exchange- even just one nuke each way- the Russian polity and culture will survive, but the US will be torn apart by the survivors in its own population. Any nuclear war vs the US is absolutely existential for the ruling class.
Posted by: Honzo | Jan 16 2024 21:36 utc | 92
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 16 2024 21:16 utc | 87
If Austin was hit in Ukraine I don’t think he was targeted, he could have just been in the wrong place at the wrong time, I totally agree he’s not worth the effort…
Well, the man is obviously not in charge of much anyway except dressing up as a senior official. (To me he looks like a cross between a dark potato and a pineapple.) Most likely they didn’t know if they hit him or not or if he was even there – if indeed they did hit him at all. It just occurred to me that the RF could have used the hit to expose USG participation in the SMO theatre.
Also, Biden has been on the take from Russians and Chinese for a long time so they are not necessarily as adversarial as projected. We only see a small part of what is going on.
silverfox48@71…..expect something asymmetrical…Russia has really wide Red Lines…..
Cheers M
…. actually there’s not much Russia can do, blow up more of Ukraine, kill more Ukrainians….been there, still doing that. If Russia has neither the will or stomach to finish the SloMo, the USUK NATO can hammer away indefinitely. Oh, or when they collapse, economically or something like that.
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 16 2024 21:45 utc | 94
Here’s a thought experiment for the barflies:
Pretend for the moment that you are a rogue American billionaire, and you have just been elected president of the United States. First, state your major foreign and domestic policy objectives. Then propose a cabinet of real people aligned with those objectives, competent to control a large slice of the government bureaucracy. Now explain how those people will be confirmed in office by the Senate as it now exists.
The American system of ‘checks and balances’ empowers the deep state more fully now than ever, and it was always the basis for the class dictatorship of the bourgeoisie. Trump, no Trump- no one not aligned with the major goals of the deep state and the financial interests behind it can possibly ‘govern’ the United States. Holding office is, by itself, meaningless.
Posted by: Honzo | Jan 16 2024 21:48 utc | 95
“I participated in my Republican district U.S. presidential preference caucus in Iowa’s capital city last night. Very orderly and efficiently run operation. Much discussion and stump speeches provided by candidate surrogates. Immigration, the economy, and ending support of carnage in Ukraine and the ME were the top issues. People are fed up and desperate for change. Trump won 98 out of 99 Iowa counties. Historic. In the one county (home of a liberal University) that did not go to Trump, establishment candidate Nikki Haley led by one vote at last count.”
Posted by: UBAH | Jan 16 2024 19:35 utc | 52
——-
Which is why the DC aristocracy is waging and will escalate its war on America, and the World.
Posted by: Robert Italia | Jan 16 2024 21:53 utc | 96
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 16 2024 21:34 utc | 90
Has there ever been an US President who killed less people abroud than Trump ?
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Jan 16 2024 21:54 utc | 97
Posted by: Psycho | Jan 16 2024 15:49 utc | 1
A ukrainian shot one of the military men who wanted to break into his house and forcibly kidnap him and send him to the army.
—-
What would things have been like if every Security operative, when he went out at night to make an arrest, had been uncertain whether he would return alive and had to say good-bye to his family? Or if, during periods of mass arrests, as for example in Leningrad, when they arrested a quarter of the entire city, people had not simply sat there in their lairs, paling with terror at every bang of the downstairs door and at every step on the staircase, but had understood they had nothing left to lose and had boldly set up in the downstairs hall an ambush of half a dozen people with axes, hammers, pokers, or whatever else was at hand?… The Organs would very quickly have suffered a shortage of officers and transport and, notwithstanding all of Stalin’s thirst, the cursed machine would have ground to a halt!
A. Solzhenitsyn, “The Gulag Archipelago”
Not quite there yet, but it is a start.
Posted by: john brewster | Jan 16 2024 18:27 utc | 34
Ambushes of conscriptors would not only send a message, but the (probably) unarmed people would find themselves weaponized. Reminds me of the scene in Diehard, “Now I have a machine gun.” The critical factor is that these ambushes have to happen frequently in order to cow the Nazi goons. An occassional ambush would just draw sadistic reprisals. Yes, it’s not quite there, and I wonder if it will ever get there. Seems like Ukrainian society can be put into two boxes – a minority of Nazi goons more than willing to use violence to enforce their ideology, and the mass of people who don’t want to get down and dirty and just avoid trouble. It’s the zombified status of most corporatized westerners. Ukrainians are going to have to do what’s necessary if they want to survive.
Posted by: Mike R | Jan 16 2024 21:55 utc | 98
Bidensky suffering defeats while feebly talking about “a standstill” because the lines on the map don’t move much.
Even while their conscripts are being killed at a rate of at least five times more than the Russians, who have better means of treating their wounded.
Will Bidensky drag this out until the fall election? That’s the only plan right now.
Posted by: Tenet | Jan 16 2024 21:57 utc | 99
As tragic as it may sound, i also think that russia hammering away at ukraine may potentially averse some future potential proxies to participate in agression against the rf.
They are hammering away at those that receive funding. Showing them that no matter how much the west is giving you money and weapons, at the end you will die.
In a way starving the western parasite out of blood to feast on.
Dont get me wrong, i hate to see so many civilians and forcefully drafted getting killed on both sides.
But the cynic in me thinks that sometimes you have to be drastic.
And since we know that the parasite itself wont participate directly with their own army, that may be a viable option.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Jan 16 2024 21:59 utc | 100