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January 14, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-014
Comments
@shаdοwbanned | Jan 15 2024 13:45 utc | 190
Russia get stronger with peace
Russia risks everything with war.
The West gets weaker with peace
The only chance the West has is with war, and that’s a big maybe since Russia is better at war than the West.
Therefore while Russia will always be pursuing peace the West will always be pursuing war. So turning the other cheek is a legitimate strategy for Russia in the interests of peace, provided Russia does not break its neck while turning the other cheek. Nothing happening in Ukraine or in the small Russian towns surrounding Ukraine threatens Russia’s neck in any way. Ukraine is not an existential threat to Russia, it is an existential thread to the West however, as everybody will laugh at the West if the West does not win in Ukraine.
The West is not keeping themselves intact while destroying Ukrainian and Russian slavs in Ukraine, the West is going downhill while destroying Ukrainian and Russian slavs in Ukraine. The costs of the West funding the Ukraine conflict is too high for the West to handle while Russia can continue the SloMO for decades. Hardware costs Russia nothing, its just resources which Russia can build plenty of. All Russia needs to do is keep their own casualties to a minimum while exhausting the West financially and economically in Ukraine and NATO goes down the drain. Russia does indeed have the first strike advantage at present, but even if the West reaches parity with current Russian military equipment ability, Russia will have advanced further by then. It is highly unlikely that the West, with all its self induced problems right now, will ever be able to match the current Russia militarily ability in the future. So no threat to Russia’s first strike superiority. Russia is headed for the stratosphere while the West is headed for the scrapheap, provided the peace aka SloMO continues. Viva SloMO viva !!! (Maybe I should say vive la SloMO vive la so as not to annoy the touchy frogs too much).
Posted by: gT | Jan 15 2024 15:48 utc | 201
Ghost of Zanoan 199:”If the plane shootdown was due to friendly fire, as reports are now indicating, then that paints a different picture.” –
The Russians have trained personnel on their radar. What would one confuse such a large aircraft with a corresponding radar signature with – and in this region?
I think it was a long-range Patriot with target illumination from AWACS over the Black Sea. Retribution will enlighten us.
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Jan 15 2024 15:52 utc | 202
I think it was a long-range Patriot with target illumination from AWACS
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Jan 15 2024 15:52 utc | 202
—
While it has been rumored that Ukraine has mounted a Patriot system on a specialized train for high mobility a Patriot strike would have required long range missiles indeed, and the A-50 and most likely also the IL-22 would have seen them coming.
I repeat that I think there is a reasonable probability that the Russian IFF transponder codes were spoofed by NATO signal intelligence. Russia has to field the SAM systems it has in inventory, some of which might lag the current IFF technology.
I also think that 2024 is going to bring revolutionary new capabilities to cheap radars and radio in general. Advancing EW is going to make robust radio communication very challenging.
China didn’t stop exporting gallium without reason.
Posted by: too scents | Jan 15 2024 16:11 utc | 203
Zorge, you have to be about the only here who thinks that the west will go nuclear to save the Ukies government.
Posted by: Morongobill | Jan 15 2024 15:22 utc | 200
t
yes. The western elites are not afraid of anything and they considered themselves far superior.
And they think that Russia won’t respond to such attack.
Posted by: zorge | Jan 15 2024 16:15 utc | 204
Southfront is reporting that one of the planes landed safely:
https://southfront.press/two-russian-aircraft-came-under-attack-over-the-sea-of-azov-report/
So there is a pretty decent chance also that is a propaganda effort from central casting over at Ukraine psy-ops productions.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 15 2024 16:19 utc | 205
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/15/politics/lloyd-austin-released-hospital?Date=20240115&Profile=cnnbrk
Lloyd Austin out of the hospital.
Posted by: ivanislav | Jan 15 2024 16:55 utc | 206
The friendly fire shoot-down theory for the A-50 is nonsense. The Russians wouldn’t even shoot down a RQ-4 if it were flying over the Sea of Azov, and that is an unmanned aircraft. Would they shoot down an E-3 with its valuable crew if that is what they mistook their own A-50 for? Absolutely not! They have plenty of opportunities to do so near Crimea and they have refrained from firing a single shot.
No, this was another sucker punch by NATO.
Posted by: William Gruff | Jan 15 2024 17:00 utc | 207
Re the A-50 and Il-22
The Il-22 returning to base will give vital evidence to the military inspectors who are trying to piece together what happened. If both aircraft were lost over water the chances of determining the sequence of events would be far more difficult, and crucially take fat longer. Speed is of the essence in such investigations, because if Ukraine have successfully attacked the aircraft having one survive is a problem, if they wanted repeat capability. Fiddling with the IFF might be plausible but both were flying high altitude race track patterns and their presence no secret to AD stations in proximity to their flight path, and the blue on blue claim could also be a cover story to take the sting out of the loss, by painting it as an error. As for the loss of a valuable C4 platform it will cause a temporary problem, but Russia is at war and I doubt they expected all these platforms to survive so will have replacement airframes already ordered. The crew loss is a significant blow, but given airspace management is such a stressful job, requiring operator shifts on board and stand-by crews, I’d expect more trained personnel than platforms.
Finally, the timing of the incident does suggest Ukrainian involvement, as news is filtering out that the Krynki bridgehead is in trouble and will soon be lost. The Zelensky regime always seem to engage in ‘spectaculars’ when they are about to suffer a serious setback that will damage morale.
Posted by: Milites | Jan 15 2024 17:20 utc | 208
The Il-22 returning to base will give vital evidence to the military inspectors who are trying to piece together what happened.
Posted by: Milites | Jan 15 2024 17:20 utc | 208
They already know — whatever missile shot it down was well tracked, by its own radar and by various installations on the ground.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 15 2024 17:23 utc | 209
by Milites | Jan 15 2024 17:20 utc | 208
One also has to think, that a loss of around 20 Signal Corps officers is as bearable, as the loss of pilots.
There are significant number of specialized troops on a rotating duties along, while controlling transcontinental borders of around 20k+ kilometers, over 11 time zones and harsh to mild climates.
One has to imagine a dimension and a stuffing to get the proper perspective.. In the West loss of AWACS would be like a loss of an aircraft carrier. For RF it is a tragedy, but changes absolutely nothing.
Btw. Russia is developing more of a space based ISR, bettering their optoelectic and a range of radar capabilities, Most recent satellites launched are all equipped with EW and repairing drones packages.
Every such claimed incident prongs RF’s R&D into the quick solution.
Further AWACS planes RF will certainly build. Also some new radars coming up.
Posted by: whirlX | Jan 15 2024 20:00 utc | 210
no bottom
Neither the SMO (UA is planning for 20 more years) nor Zelensk* “peace formula” has been done at Versaille, BUT citing a “legal principle that a country should “make full reparation for the injury caused by an internationally wrongful act”,
Reparation bonds could unlock $300 billion for Ukraine
Posted by: sln2002 | Jan 15 2024 20:51 utc | 211
Posted by: whirlX | Jan 15 2024 20:00 utc | 210
Yes, key point. Combat, by its kinetically applied Darwinian survival algorithms, forces notoriously conservative organisations into rapid, reactive change. NATO are caught in the proxy paradox that ensnares most countries who follow this conflict route, For Ukraine to ‘win’ they have to reveal their backer’s capabilities, capabilities that are largely effective because they are, to their opponent, known unknowns. Because of this status they generate uncertainty and doubt, valuable force multipliers which largely disappear when they transition to known knowns.. If Ukraine has spoofed the IFF or somehow been supplied by a new weapon or modified existing one then it is unlikely to be a repeatable capability, which then limits its operational usefulness or impact to a ‘one shot weapon’.
I suspect, if the Ukrainian’s/NATO were responsible then there is a strategic setback in the offing and the Russian’s will inflict payback, then again perhaps, as some posters have suggested, it was the Russian’s who were being paid back for previously ‘crossing the line’.
Posted by: Milites | Jan 15 2024 21:19 utc | 212
The attack on the A-50 was too great a provocation, the uppercut will come in the next few days… that’s only how the anglo-saxonians love it to happen… – and then go on, fight, fight fight…
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Jan 15 2024 21:52 utc | 213
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Jan 15 2024 21:52 utc | 213
I don’t think it was too much a temptation, I think it was perhaps mounted as distraction operation for the imminent loss of the, militarily insignificant but morale boosting, Krynki foothold, or similar stronghold.
Posted by: Milites | Jan 15 2024 22:46 utc | 214
no bottom
Neither the SMO (UA is planning for 20 more years) nor Zelensk* “peace formula” has been done at Versaille, BUT citing a “legal principle that a country should “make full reparation for the injury caused by an internationally wrongful act”,
Reparation bonds could unlock $300 billion for Ukraine
Posted by: sln2002 | Jan 15 2024 20:51 utc | 211
——————-
If you posted what I think you did.
1) Ukraine would be lucky to sustain twenty years of existence, let alone twenty years of war.
Their demographics went from appalling to abysmal, in the last two years. Ukraine has no future that’s why the Ukro-Nazis/Cargo Cultists fight, they have nothing else.
2) If NATO steals whatever RF money was in western banks, the blowback will cost far more than the immediate gains.
Also ain’t s**t going to Ukraine, that cash will be pissed-away. In profligate attempts to make the unworkable work and/or get eaten by various classes of parasite. I.E “normal” 21st century Western misrule & corruption.
Posted by: Urban Fox | Jan 16 2024 1:42 utc | 215
Sputnik is reporting ~ 14 hrs ago in article, “A Tale of Two Fates: Gonzalo Lira and Rafi Jabar,”
…the horrific fate of Gonzalo Lira, who the latest reports from reliable sources (not yet, but I think soon to be 100% confirmed) was actually extorted for over $250,000 by agents of the SBU, with the the knowledge and connivance of the vice consul of the US embassy, and when Lira tried to contact a lawyer, was beaten and tortured to death in his jail cell.
Will we ever know what really happened to Lira? Is Sputnik prone to misleading reportage?
Posted by: suzan | Jan 16 2024 2:02 utc | 216
by: Milites | Jan 15 2024 21:19 utc | 212
I suspect, if the Ukrainian’s/NATO were responsible then there is a strategic setback in the offing and the Russian’s will inflict payback, then again perhaps, as some posters have suggested, it was the Russian’s who were being paid back for previously ‘crossing the line’.
Thanks for this comprehensive top-down slice. What I can see is that FORTE11, now as we type, is flying along East-West being very close to Sochi in turns, definitely having the eyes on the Azov Sea. Signals reach even further. So from 15 km Global hawk collects optically in depth of 250 km, electronically to 400 effective range.
In everyone’s book that a ‘peek over the fence’ is crossing the red lines by default, yet nothing happens…
What I also read is that all that is a psy-op and no planes were downed. I can buy IFF hack, but also only doable only by the NATo and not Ukrainians.
What is that I suspect, more and more, is that without total Russian domination over the Black Sea, there is no basis for any Russian security. Or they clean it up by de-coasting Ukraine or they have a hard time avoiding NATO supported actions there. It must be a solution, but right now I have no idea what it is.
Downing everything ISR in the Black Sea must be coordinated with Iran, Syria, Turkey might stand just aside there.Also blackening the whole region is not yet done, but a capacity is there. What I also understand is that in this kind of confrontation with a complex kinetic execution of a preemptive nature, is leaning towards Russian doctrine more.
Posted by: whirlX | Jan 16 2024 2:59 utc | 217
suzan | Jan 16 2024 2:02 utc | 216
Both Sputnik and RT are prone to reporting rumor and gossip as news. A very wide range of quality at those sites. Some very good, some very poor.
Perhaps after the Nazis are ousted we will find out the exact circumstances or perhaps not. He spoke about the extortion when he escaped but no specifics.
There is the hand written letter but how did that get out? May well be genuine but may not. A small question mark on that. Possibly via another prisoner that was being released.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 16 2024 3:30 utc | 218
@ Peter AU1 | Jan 16 2024 3:30 utc | 218
Gonzalo’s father mentioned the large sum of extorted money paid, 250,000, in an interview. The note could be real or a cover for what took place. Kind of like finding a passport at a terrorist scene. That the US employees there did nothing to help him gives me the feeling that what Sputnik reports is very possible. Gonzalo made a lot of enemies angry with rage, the kind of people who do not take kindly to critique, understatement. “Can’t we just drone him?” kind of people.
Posted by: suzan | Jan 16 2024 4:12 utc | 219
from Palestine thread query
bevin | Jan 16 2024 3:50 utc | 129
psychohistorian | Jan 16 2024 4:08 utc | 130
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/01/palestine-open-thread-2024-016/comments/page/2/#comments
DIMA discusses a TG post from Moscow sources – translates and interprets importance of discussions between MOD of Russia and Iran.
see here timestamped https://youtu.be/kmmohG3MdUE?si=fIdvT5Tm7K2NHYA-&t=217
imo, reading between the lines (if true) emphasizes the importance implications of the new Iran-Russia MUTUAL Defense Treaty (or whatever they call it) if anyone attacks their “territorial integrity” – iow it’s a new growing Warsaw Pact v2.0 which already includes the Russia-Belarus (Union State) mutual defense treaty that embraces Nuclear weapons defense systems as well.
prior recent indications of increasing close relationship from last year includes
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2023/08/23/709489/Iran-made-new-defense-agreements-with-Russia-Iranian-commander
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2023/12/12/716261/Russia-Iran-major-new-interstate-agreement-bilateral-relations
also note this – Dec 2023
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2023/12/02/715647/Putin-orders-Russian-military-add-170000-troops
because Dima, Military summary, in beginning of that video also points to new info:
West believes Russia about to launch another offensive invasion of Ukraine
Russia planning to open up a land corridor to Kalingrad from Belarus,
and/or invading attacking the Baltic states;
while Poland has agreed to host new German forces on Polish territory asap,
as UK defense minister gives warmongering Nato address in Kiev.
LD
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jan 16 2024 4:54 utc | 220
Because over time I have learnt to appreciate the fact that Ukie propaganda isn’t always lying. As every good propagandist knows, you have to insert some grains of truth in it. In this case the claim is too massive and specific to be entirely false.
Posted by: Micron | Jan 15 2024 12:58 utc | 183
This is BS mate. They haven’t reported a single truth during 2023. There was never a statement about the loss of Artyomovsk for example.
I mean, we have heard the exact same type of soothing message regarding the Moskva. It went something like this :
“bullshit ! The Moskva is alive and well !”
“Okay maybe it got some hit. But it’s repairable”
“It’s driving back to Sebastopol, but it floats”
“It sunk. But it wasn’t the result of a Ukie strike”.
And then silence.
You are comparing apples to oranges. The ukies didn’t have any success during 2023. The 3 SU34 downed? Fake news! The A-50 downed? Not confirmed.
That is what you are missing. They need some SUCCESSES which they don’t have to sell to their masters in the West. So it goes without saying that they started lying massively about everything. The idiotic move at Krynky was dubbed a “beachhead” or a “foothold” or whatever when in truth it was a waste of irreplaceable manpower and a PR stunt….
This type of soothing commentary, yeah let’s see later, we don’t have all the facts… is exactly the greatest disservice you can make for the Russian forces. On the contrary we need, everyone needs, to mercilessly point out what goes wrong and not let go. Because there is some serious purging to be done.
You know the real problem isn’t that the Russians aren’t being honest about their losses but the Ukies! They are the ones who need to tell the world what is really happening. They won’t dare though cause it will mean the immediate loss of funds and weapons plus there will be international pressure for a ceasefire which will lead to the loss of more land for the Ukies.
Posted by: Modern Stoic | Jan 16 2024 5:54 utc | 221
Posted by: gT | Jan 15 2024 13:22 utc | 187
Westerners won’t nuke Russia. The country that does will have PR problems and will lose the ability to call upon the rest of NATO. In simple words, it will be left alone against the wrath of Russian nukes….
Furthermore it doesn’t play along with the current propaganda saying “after Ukraine falls, Insert Country is next!!”. Of course all this does not align well with current western paradigm that Ukraine is winning or fighting Russia to a standstill. I mean if the Ukies are successful why do the other countries need to prepare since Ukraine is “definitely not losing” according to western media??
Posted by: Modern Stoic | Jan 16 2024 6:17 utc | 222
Posted by: Barrel Brown | Jan 15 2024 12:40 utc | 176
Yes, the eastward expansion of NATO is undeniable.
Two things about that, though:
1.
It has been mostly about those countries rushing to NATO to get protection from russia. Quite understandable in my mind, given the actions of russians through the centuries, but especially post WWII period.
2.
russia, with its considerable army and especially its substantial nuclear arsenal, should be confident in itself not to fear an attack. No nuclear country has been attacked by a foreign army. Well, Argentine did attack Falkland Islands, but not the British mainland. Current conflict in Ukraine shows that US and the western countries more generally do not wish to get in direct confrontation with russia, much less attack it directly.
About russian speakers in Ukraine, Mariupol citizen militias stopped russians taking over Mariupol in 2014, which was after ‘euro-Maidan’. So not quite so straightforward.
And about puppets. Yes, western countries, US especially, use puppets, no disagreement there. But in my mind NATO does not have the necessary structure to control puppets. Individual countries, yes, but not NATO. Remember the phrase ‘fuck the EU’?
Did you read what I wrote about Chechnya? It is not the job of the western agencies to do the revolution. Chechens already did it once, but then Kadyrov quislings got their 30 pieces of silver. Chechens will do it again, when the time is right. Not when western agencies tell them.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Jan 16 2024 6:23 utc | 223
@ 223
1. no it has mostly been about NATO regime changing countries to get a government that would joine Russia. quite understandable to anybody that isn’t a bootlicker.
2. bootlickers did not prevail in Chechnya, worked in Ukraine. very straightforward.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Jan 16 2024 7:05 utc | 224
the country that nukes Russia will cease to exist. This precludes subsequent PR problems as a source of concern. The US, which is run by a collection of traitors, fools, and drooling idiots, may not understand this, which is why Russia has been obliged to be cautious so far.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Jan 16 2024 7:07 utc | 225
Posted by: pretzelattack | Jan 16 2024 7:05 utc | 224
“1. no it has mostly been about NATO regime changing countries to get a government that would joine Russia”
Give just one example of such a regime change.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Jan 16 2024 7:17 utc | 226
Posted by: Vile Membrum | Jan 16 2024 7:17 utc | 226
NATO = United States and its vassals who are bullied into buying weapons and hosting United States military bases and nuclear weapons. Here’s a list of United States overthrowing, or attempting to overthrow, a foreign government since the Second World War. (* indicates successful ouster of a government) from William Blum.
* China 1949 to early 1960s
* Albania 1949-53
* East Germany 1950s
* Iran 1953 *
* Guatemala 1954 *
* Costa Rica mid-1950s
* Syria 1956-7
* Egypt 1957
* Indonesia 1957-8
* British Guiana 1953-64 *
* Iraq 1963 *
* North Vietnam 1945-73
* Cambodia 1955-70 *
* Laos 1958 *, 1959 *, 1960 *
* Ecuador 1960-63 *
* Congo 1960 *
* France 1965
* Brazil 1962-64 *
* Dominican Republic 1963 *
* Cuba 1959 to present
* Bolivia 1964 *
* Indonesia 1965 *
* Ghana 1966 *
* Chile 1964-73 *
* Greece 1967 *
* Costa Rica 1970-71
* Bolivia 1971 *
* Australia 1973-75 *
* Angola 1975, 1980s
* Zaire 1975
* Portugal 1974-76 *
* Jamaica 1976-80 *
* Seychelles 1979-81
* Chad 1981-82 *
* Grenada 1983 *
* South Yemen 1982-84
* Suriname 1982-84
* Fiji 1987 *
* Libya 1980s
* Nicaragua 1981-90 *
* Panama 1989 *
* Bulgaria 1990 *
* Albania 1991 *
* Iraq 1991
* Afghanistan 1980s *
* Somalia 1993
* Yugoslavia 1999-2000 *
* Ecuador 2000 *
* Afghanistan 2001 *
* Venezuela 2002 *
* Iraq 2003 *
* Haiti 2004 *
* Somalia 2007 to present
* Honduras 2009 *
* Libya 2011 *
* Syria 2012
* Ukraine 2014 *
Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Jan 16 2024 7:35 utc | 227
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Jan 16 2024 6:23 utc | 223
Did you miss the part where Putin asked to join NATO and he was denied by Clinton?
Russia wanted to be a part of the western power structure and still does. The problem lies in the fact that the West wants Russia as a servant not as a peer. Of course it comes naturally that a nuclear power does not beg but carves its own way.
As for Mariupol, i don’t know where you get you info from but the vast majority in the area are Russian speakers. I have no idea about the source of potential militias but judging from the rest of Ukraine i sincerely doubt they were “spontaneously” manned by “Ukrainian patriots”.
Posted by: Modern Stoic | Jan 16 2024 8:08 utc | 228
What I can see is that FORTE11, now as we type, is flying along East-West being very close to Sochi in turns
Posted by: whirlX | Jan 16 2024 2:59 utc | 217
What you “see” is a Swedish website using public data from various airports. I do believe US drones go near Sochi, even closer when Putin visits. Something like that would never be allowed by any nato country or USSR. Not that it is currently possible, they don’t have drones like that. under Shoigu/Gerasimov only artillery is manufactured and it’s funny NK and Iran have them. Anyway, it’s just a nato website, don’t believe everything you see. It may be a fake, or a single drone listed when ten are flying. It’s a waste of time to monitor public flight data.
Posted by: rk | Jan 16 2024 8:30 utc | 229
milites 214: That’s true. It is a kind of Ukrainian “strategy” to counter irreparable deterioration in the overall military situation with spectacular, media-effective actions. On the other hand, the Americans certainly want to keep the reconnaissance planes at a distance when the F-16s come.
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Jan 16 2024 8:41 utc | 230
Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Jan 16 2024 7:35 utc | 227
On a quick scan, only member of NATO on that list is Bulgaria, and the date is 14 years before its membership. So no i’m not buying. Besides, just a name of the country is not enough. I want facts about the regimes in question and arguments why it was done by NATO/whoever.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Jan 16 2024 9:15 utc | 231
Posted by: Modern Stoic | Jan 16 2024 8:08 utc | 228
“Did you miss the part where Putin asked to join NATO and he was denied by Clinton?”
No. What’s your point?
“As for Mariupol, i don’t know where you get you info from but the vast majority in the area are Russian speakers.”
My point exactly!
“I have no idea about the source of potential militias but judging from the rest of Ukraine i sincerely doubt they were “spontaneously” manned by “Ukrainian patriots”.”
Just as ‘spontaneous’ as the ‘Donetsk rebels’. Neither side tikered their armored vehicles on their backyards.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Jan 16 2024 9:18 utc | 232
Simplicius posits US pushing for a European war against Russia by end 2024 as US cannot accept the end of their Nazi Ukraine.
Note this is behind a pay wall.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/new-war-drums-chill-europe-with-renewed
Posted by: Surferket | Jan 16 2024 9:37 utc | 233
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jan 16 2024 4:54 utc | 220
Simplicius new article called that as preparing the grounds to goad Russia into attacking Baltic states as US did to force Russia into Ukraine.
Posted by: Surferket | Jan 16 2024 9:43 utc | 234
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Jan 16 2024 9:15 utc | 231
There is nothing I can do about you being unable to read.
Albania, France, Greece, Portugal are all listed. The regime change mechanics are documented in depth. It’s not my job to educate the ignorant on this forum.
Educate yourself from your stupor – it may stop you from cheering on fascists and embarrassing yourself here.
Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Jan 16 2024 9:52 utc | 235
Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Jan 16 2024 9:52 utc | 235
Yeah, I admit, we are discussing NATO and you put on a big list of countries, many having nothing to do with NATO. So I didn’t read very carefully. My bad.
France and Portugal are founding members of NATO, possible ‘regime changes’ have nothing to with their membership. Albania, ‘change’ 19 year before joining.
Not very convincing. Especially without ANY arguments, never mind facts.
You embarass yourself.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Jan 16 2024 10:08 utc | 236
Oh yeah, Greece. ‘Change’ 15 years after membership.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Jan 16 2024 10:10 utc | 237
You embarass yourself.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Jan 16 2024 10:08 utc | 236
👆😳🙈
Get to fuck, you imbecile. I’m not going to waste any further time responding to your ignorant deluded ravings as you deny facts that don’t fit with your deluded world view. Attempting to reason with you is like trying to talk to a lobotomised escapee from a lunatic asylum who has wandered into a pub. You’ve proven yourself a troll, unpaid troll as no one can be daft enough to pay for your nonsense.
If your reading comprehension was any higher than 7th grade and you were genuinely interested in how US / NATO has been the biggest belligerent post WW2 then I’d recommend you read anything by William Blum.
williamblum.org
Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Jan 16 2024 10:37 utc | 238
Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Jan 16 2024 10:37 utc | 238
“If your reading comprehension was any higher than 7th grade and you were genuinely interested in how US / NATO has been the biggest belligerent post WW2 then I’d recommend you read anything by William Blum.”
That might well be true. However, that is not what this discussion is about.
I might check out Mr. Blum. Though his followers do him no service 🙁
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Jan 16 2024 10:42 utc | 239
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Jan 16 2024 9:18 utc | 232
My point ,dear troll, is that if Russia wanted to attack say the Baltic states or Poland, it would have never tried to join NATO in the first place!
As for Mariupol again, I need to remind you that your previous argument is invalid. The presence of Militias does not mean anything about the language or the culture spoken there just that there is influence in the form of paramilitary organizations. As i said before, the people there speak Russian and there is also a Greek minority in the area which was persecuted for speaking greek. How dare they!
Posted by: Modern Stoic | Jan 16 2024 11:37 utc | 240
Posted by: Surferket | Jan 16 2024 9:37 utc | 233
I can’t read the article but it won’t happen. European countries are too divided and completely unprepared for this outcome. Europe has always relied on the US (through NATO) for protection from USSR and it takes that protection for granted. Besides European warehouses are empty of weapon stocks, most of them have already been transferred to Ukraine.
Russians know better than to risk war with NATO for the Baltic states. Ukraine is a different case entirely because 1) it has important cultural connection to their history as a nation and their religion 2) It poses a serious strategic long term threat in both the Black sea and the capability to field nuclear weapons in striking distance of Moscow. 3) it has a significant population of both Russian speaking and Russian nationals.
The baltic states or Poland pose none of the above threats. You might make a case about fielding Nukes but it is unimportant IMHO.
Of course nothing prevents NATO from staging a “false flag attack” but this won’t end well for Europe.
Posted by: Modern Stoic | Jan 16 2024 11:49 utc | 241
Posted by: Modern Stoic | Jan 16 2024 11:49 utc | 241
They are cooking up something in Estonia and Latvia. Something, which Russia won’t be able to ignore. My guess is they will start persecuting the Russian language population (they already have).
Russia could offer passports to the population in the Baltic states to mitigate that avenue.
If that fails, Nato could stage this or that false flag attack. That seems most likely.
The last avenue is placing and arming nukes to the Baltic aircraft, or they could do it in Finland as well.
Russia would one way or other know about nukes in Finnish or Baltlet air bases. There is a chance it could warrant nuking those bases.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 16 2024 11:56 utc | 242
Oh yeah, Greece. ‘Change’ 15 years after membership.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Jan 16 2024 10:10 utc | 237
OMG your ignorance is over 9000!
The Greek junta was established by CIA backed colonels. Does it matter if the coup happened years after Greece joined NATO??
Why would the CIA be involved if there was no danger for american interests? They feared that the elected government was taking a turn towards the Left and that it would affect the alliance’s south eastern wing leaving Turkey on its own.
Please refrain from talking about things you don’t have an inkling about.
Posted by: Modern Stoic | Jan 16 2024 12:22 utc | 243
Posted by: Modern Stoic | Jan 16 2024 12:22 utc | 243
It matters, because the discussion I was having was the eastward expansion of NATO after Soviet times. So 1967 doesnt enter into it, no matter who was behind the coup.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Jan 16 2024 15:11 utc | 244
Posted by: Modern Stoic | Jan 16 2024 11:37 utc | 240
“As i said before, the people there speak Russian ”
And my point is, that those militias were russian speaking. Maybe some greek speakers as well.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Jan 16 2024 15:13 utc | 245
Now that Trump looks set to make a breakthrough – if he doesn’t get shot – the warmongers behind Blinken are running out of time. So they will increase the pressure on their puppet so that the beautiful investment in Ukraine is not lost. You can expect surprises in the next few weeks…
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Jan 16 2024 15:46 utc | 246
by rk | Jan 16 2024 8:30 utc | 229
What you “see” is a Swedish website using public data from various airports.
That is nonsense. There is not only one site that does the planes and maritime vessels tracking.
There are at least 5 relevant sites and I use at least 3 to verify the actual.
For NATO it is hard and risky to spoof civilian stuff and a traffic. So I would render triple checks pretty safe and valid.
ADS-B, AIS signals and a GPS signals are spoofed and interfered already in the area for last two years with a n intensity that is just at the limit to disrupt the civilian traffic.
So, some planes do appear to be flying over the area that is prohibited, so when they get the signal back they glide back into the normal and expected path.
Internetz, of course, go wild when that happens.
Posted by: whirlX | Jan 16 2024 19:09 utc | 247
Re: Posted by: gT | Jan 15 2024 15:48 utc | 201
Russia get stronger with peace
Russia risks everything with war.
The West gets weaker with peace
The only chance the West has is with war, and that’s a big maybe since Russia is better at war than the West.
Therefore while Russia will always be pursuing peace the West will always be pursuing war. So turning the other cheek is a legitimate strategy for Russia in the interests of peace, provided Russia does not break its neck while turning the other cheek. Nothing happening in Ukraine or in the small Russian towns surrounding Ukraine threatens Russia’s neck in any way. Ukraine is not an existential threat to Russia, it is an existential thread to the West however, as everybody will laugh at the West if the West does not win in Ukraine.
The West is not keeping themselves intact while destroying Ukrainian and Russian slavs in Ukraine, the West is going downhill while destroying Ukrainian and Russian slavs in Ukraine. The costs of the West funding the Ukraine conflict is too high for the West to handle while Russia can continue the SloMO for decades. Hardware costs Russia nothing, its just resources which Russia can build plenty of. All Russia needs to do is keep their own casualties to a minimum while exhausting the West financially and economically in Ukraine and NATO goes down the drain. Russia does indeed have the first strike advantage at present, but even if the West reaches parity with current Russian military equipment ability, Russia will have advanced further by then. It is highly unlikely that the West, with all its self induced problems right now, will ever be able to match the current Russia militarily ability in the future. So no threat to Russia’s first strike superiority. Russia is headed for the stratosphere while the West is headed for the scrapheap, provided the peace aka SloMO continues. Viva SloMO viva !!! (Maybe I should say vive la SloMO vive la so as not to annoy the touchy frogs too much).
An Absolutely Amazing Amount of Copium/Hopium.
Posted by: Julian | Jan 16 2024 21:40 utc | 248