by: John | Jan 15 2024 0:17 utc | 84
Putin litteraly wanted to be part of NATO and the West but they rejected him.
I read somewhere from the translator at the time, quotes from the discussion Putin had with Clinton as Putin wanted to get to equal ways of cooperation, not to cause wars and conflicts, but as a way to prevent them was removing the polarity.
By joining NATO and transforming it a bit, of course that RF takes it over slowly, was mentioned.
Basically Putin asked cooperation and transparency and they told him that they are not doing business like that.

Posted by: whirlX | Jan 15 2024 1:20 utc | 104

Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 15 2024 1:10 utc | 102
I liked that one.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 15 2024 1:32 utc | 106

I read somewhere from the translator at the time, quotes from the discussion Putin had with Clinton as Putin wanted to get to equal ways of cooperation, not to cause wars and conflicts, but as a way to prevent them was removing the polarity.
By joining NATO and transforming it a bit, of course that RF takes it over slowly, was mentioned.
Basically Putin asked cooperation and transparency and they told him that they are not doing business like that.
Here is another quote from Putin to David Frost of the BBC on March 5th, 2000:
“Russia is part of the European culture. And I cannot imagine my own country in isolation from Europe and what we often call the civilised world.”

Posted by: John | Jan 15 2024 1:33 utc | 108

There are no Empires.
We are idiots.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=On_ciBpaA4Q
Nabukos
A salute

Posted by: Dado | Jan 15 2024 1:41 utc | 110

Give me a break 40 years ago you would’ve said the “USSR was not a empire”
Posted by: John | Jan 15 2024 1:29 utc | 105
ah well, but the USSR is no more, is it?
dont dig deeper when standing in a hole.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Jan 15 2024 1:51 utc | 112

If Russia doesn’t have a higher gear, this war will last many years, if not indefinitely.
I have a feeling this will war will consume Putin until the day he “leaves” the Kremlin.
He is already getting up there in a age too.

Posted by: Johm | Jan 15 2024 1:58 utc | 114

Some videos for today.
Russian thermobaric TOS-1A system decimates enemy fortified position near Novomikhailovka, on the southern DPR front:
https://rutube.ru/video/f1a13f0883bc614b5e377a0eb0bedefb/
Russian Lancets destroy two enemy tanks on the right bank of the Dnepr River:
https://rutube.ru/video/f6cbb312839589ad3b57cd869e8ce408/
Russian artillery team in action near the DPR’s Marinka:
https://rutube.ru/video/075182079e25223acffeeaebc64bcc87/
Russian Grad launcher fires on enemy position on the Zaporozhye front:
https://rutube.ru/video/c9505be04d7d04e02478598fa8df0da7/
Russian Giatsint-S self-propelled howitzer in action near Kupyansk:
https://rutube.ru/video/9e999d152260fc24578a9c251df7f9af/
Russian T-80 tank opens fire near Donetsk:
https://rutube.ru/video/3ed4c4595269cd8d5289e60a483ef6ed/

Posted by: Nate | Jan 15 2024 1:59 utc | 116

The thought experiment question was long ago formulated that should time travel be made real and you were able to materialise momentarily in the presence of Hitler and Stalin with a loaded musket – who would you kill?
Both are as bad as each other

Posted by: John | Jan 15 2024 2:12 utc | 118

DunGroanin | Jan 15 2024 1:59 utc | 115–
Unfortunately, Hitler and Stalin were never together at the same place at the same time, so the question’s moot.
The key, modern, Evil People are all from the West and none ever became President or PM as they exert(ed) their considerable power from behind the scenes. To undo their power, the balance sheet must be flipped–their assets must be zeroed by eliminating the debts they derive from. Sounds simple, but it will take a revolution/revolt to accomplish.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 15 2024 2:26 utc | 120

Acco Hengst | Jan 15 2024 2:23 utc | 119–
Incremental progress continues along the FEBA, the weather’s plaguing both sides. One clear issue is the Ukie use of FPV drones as replacements for infantry and artillery. The hypothetical solution is to launch a massive offensive over a wide front that overwhelms localized FPV assets and provides massive anti-drone assets while also employing extensive demining. But the sappers and their gear must be protected from FPVs so they can do their work. Once the overly mature FEBA gets broken and open ground attained, then the issues will change, but until then the attritional/positional methods continue.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 15 2024 2:41 utc | 122

“Nearly half a million dead Nazis.
That’s a gift from Russia to the rest of humanity.”
They’re not all Nazis, and many don’t want to fight Russia. Here’s a tragic example. https://t.me/ukr_leaks_eng/8985

Posted by: metamars | Jan 15 2024 3:40 utc | 124

by Roger | Jan 15 2024 3:46 utc | 125
@Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 15 2024 2:41 utc | 122
Very true.
Yes, karlof1 wrote well.
The main issue is the Western surveillance making it very hard to mass troops without being detected. From Sumy toward Poltava would be perfect for this, placing everything from Kharkov to Zaporizhzhia in danger.
I think that Russian strategic EW is not yet used. Some new “combat support” satellites are also going up soon. It is also questionable how much good data is collected by NATO’s ISR. Crimea is mostly in focus.
The way I see it, or Odesa Raion gets stormed by helicopter assault, around March towards the spring
and NATO calls a checkmate, or all this pressure along the front-lines means that the actual focus is on something else, such as Belorussian visit to Kiev again and such. In an environment with too many opponent’s feints, one can only surrender if close, and if far condense in a defensive posture.
Will it help? Probably not.
I can also imagine a limited NATO involvement and a direct fire support against the RF. If not Putin’s patience might be exhausted under the pressure from the military, even before that happens. Right now is tricky with too many events from Erdogan letting British ships through, to threatening with the war.
Things will also change when North Koreans arrive today in Moscow. We will see.

Posted by: whirlX | Jan 15 2024 4:27 utc | 126

Making of the Soviet Union and collapse of the Soviet Union and the Chechen wars.
With the communist revolution, the Russian empire was divided up into the main block, I forget what it was called but is now the Russian Federation and the SSR’s Soviet socialist republics which all had the right to secede from the Soviet Union some parts of the Russian empire like Tuva and Mongolia were not included in the empire and became independent states. Both these formed there own socialist republics, Tuva being accepted into the Union after several years but Mongolia remaining independent though closely allied. In one of the Baltics (off memory not sure which one) the communists came to power at that time but were quickly removed by a European force.
It was a true Union rather than an empire as it was led by a Georgian Stalin (born Ioseb Besarionis dze Jughashvili) and two Ukrainians – Khrushchev and I forget the name of the other. The rest being I believe ethnic Russians though I think in terms of years about 50/50 or perhaps in favor of the non ethnic Russians.
Fast forward to the collapse. That began with the roll back from the territories under occupation since the great patriotic war and east Germany. At that time, many Russians including Putin believed the only thing between Russia and the west was ideology and with that gone, hostilities would disappear. There was also Gorbachev’s perestroika. I am not sure of the exact sequence of events as I have not researched that period but basically a general collapse seems to have occurred with all SSRs declaring independence which was their right according to the Soviet constitution.
Of note here is that Crimea, which Khrushchev the Ukrainian had tacked on to Ukraine in I think 54, had agreed to back Ukraine independence but under thew new Ukraine constitution, Crimea also had the right to secede from Ukraine. In the early 90s Crimean officials began organizing a referendum to secede from Ukraine but the officials were arrested and deported to Russia by the Ukrainians. Mention of that can be found in the 2014 Ukraine Wikipedia entry but after the US/UK coup was deleted from the Ukraine page but can still be found in the history of that entry.
The main block which became the Russian federation was still communist under Gorbechev. Many Russians had wanted to be rid of the SSR’s as a number of them were constantly subsidized. As the Soviet union function as a single country with a number of states, after Stalin’s death people could freely travel anywhere, apart from closed cities and such to work and live. With the sudden collapse and breakup people became citizens of the state they were living in. Russians in the SSRs, hence the Russian ethnic groups in many and vise versa. The is the main reason why Putin terms the collapse of the union a tragedy though he also thinks that better handled the Union could have evolved into I assume a non communist nation or certainly dumping some of the baggage of communism. Socialist nation rather than a communist union perhaps.
As I mentioned earlier many Russians though ideology was the only thing standing between Russia and the west so we have Yeltsin firing on the parliament building with tanks to oust the communists. A new constitution was drawn up under Yeltsin with American hep. The Americans wanted the presidency to be a powerful position so the communists could not return to power.
I forget his name and position, a name something like Charblay came up with the idea of giving every citizen a certificate of a share of all state owned enterprises ect to ensure Russia did not return to communism. These certificates were worthless to the people most of whom by then were pverty stricken and needed money for food. A few wealthy individuals half a dozen or so went around buying these for peanuts and in this way gained control of all Russian federation assets. The oligarchs.
The Chechens were one of the 114 ethnic groups of the main block of the soviet union and did not have the right to secede as the SSR,s did. With the Russian federation in a mess and the military going for months without pay and funding, the Chechens launched a war of independence, gaining a defacto independence in I think 94. That I believe was a grass roots uprising. With the ending of the first Chechen war the CIA began moving Arab terrorists from afghan and elsewhere into Chechnya along with wahabi clerics to convert the Chechens. During the mid nineties, Grozny became known as the terrorist arms bazaar of the world. A nuber of video from westerners who traveled there at that time. Was still able to find one on youtube not long back.
A wahhabi Chechen and Arab wahhabi joint terrorist army was created, overseen by CIA operating from I think Georgia. Chechen wahhabis led by Shamil Basayev and the Arab force by Khattab. The intention was to create the Islamic state of Ingushetia in the muslim region of the Russian federation – exactly the same as the later islamic state in Syria and Iraq.
Putin was a KBG officer stationed in East Germany at the time of the Soviet collapse. KGB were external intel, not internal. In east Germany it was the stazi I believe that was service for internal intelligence. After the collapse, Putin worked in city admin in his home town of Saint Petersburg (communist Leningrad). About a year before Yeltsin appointed him president, he was offered the job of head of FSB in Moscow. FSB is Russian Federation internal intel, similar to FBI in the US. SVR is Russian external intel.
At some point, FSB was able to insert an agent as go between or messenger boy between the CIA handler outside the border and the Chechen Arab force in Chechnya so was privy to the communications. Early on Chechen militias also joined or sided with the terrorist force thinking they were fighting for further independence rather than as CIA cannon fodder to further break up the Russian federation. To take them on required a large military action rather than an FSB spetznaz swat type operation.
I remember from that time, I was always hearing on the news that Yeltsin was constantly appointing PM’s then after several months sacking them until Putin was appointed PM for a trial run. With the PMs office, Putin immediately organized the required military operation.
At some point very early on Putin flew into Chechnya, the helicopter coming under anti aircraft gunfire to meet with Kasparov senior who was the most respected of the clan leaders that had not converted to wahhabism.
I have never found any details of the deal the did but it is obviously along the lines of full autonomy in Chechnya with the Chechen president only answerable to the Russian president so the Chechens could live according to their traditional culture and in return for reaming part of the Russia Federation, Russia would also join with them against outside forces. Basically the full power of the Russian federation ensuring they were able to retain there culture and independence against outside force.
At the time Putin was appointed the Russian military was in a mess. unpaid with even loyal and honest people having to resort to minor corruption to feed their families. But even this underfunded and neglegted force gained hope with a hands on PM.
The terrorist army was 2000 strong plus militias still fighting with it and located in Grozny. Under the offer of amnesty, the militias peeled of the terrorist grouping in the ensuing weeks.
The Russian military drove them out of Grozny and the terrorist forces headed up a valley at the end of which was a mountain pass that would take them to Dagistan so they could head for six villages in Dagistan that had converted to wahhabism. Russian military sent several helicopters of parratroops to the pass to to try and block the terrorists in the valley until the main forces caught up with the intention to destroy them in the valley. I think a bit over 100 paratroopers. In any event not a great number. There is a doc on that that is worth watching. There commander tried to get on the helicopter to go with them against orders but was physically held back. There was little chance of survival if the main force did not catch up in time.
A lot of courage shown by those paratroops. The terrorist forces showed up just as they got dug in on the ridgeline and the first attack began. They fought off a number of attacks, each attack killing more paratroops until down to I think 17. Knowing they could not survive another attack, they sent the six youngest paratroopers out. Those young men were the only survivors. There is a documentary of the action with original footage of the paratroops boarding the helicopters and disembarking with their equipment a short distance from the ridge. Also footage of when the survivors were found the next day and the ridge and shallow trench. I forget the number of terrorist bodies found below the ridge but somewhere from 500 to 800 I believe. I think it is in the doco and other accounts.
Hill something or height something (a number) I think the doco was called. I did find it again on youtube a year or two back.
Anyway once over the pass the terrorist grouping headed down a valley into Dagestan. At one place down that valley it narrows right in and there the Russian empire had set a garrison to guard that valley pass though at this point it was simply a Dagestan village. The village formed a militia from every male to hold the pass. I forget the exact events after that but I believe on reaching the pass the terrorists turned back the way they had come with the main force finally cornering them in I think the valley in Chechnya and destroying them with artillery.
he Dagestan militia razed the six or so wahhabbi villages themselves. Isolated terrorist cells still cropped up over the next decade or so. But I think dealt with by Dagestan or Chechen authorities with the help of the FSB.
The courage of the paratroopers, the village militia – is why I get angry with the gutter scum that spout US propaganda on Putin and Chechnya.
Most of this I researched back in 2014, 2016 around that time so possibly a few points may need correcting but this will give a pretty good picture. I did look up Stalin’s name to ensure that was correct.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 15 2024 5:23 utc | 128

Height 776 doco but youtube now have a sign in to confirm your age on it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YC3rorOWuDg
A couple of other videos without blockers one is a memorial gathering showing memorials to them. I haven’t rewatched this one but I believe their beds in the barracks are still made for them each week. Their beds in the barracks were never given to new recruits or anyone else but kept in memory of them. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIvKKYN-Eds
Another. A song perhaps dedicated to them plus tiny sections of the original footage.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qy7J1-WElzo

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 15 2024 5:41 utc | 130

What I wrote the is not for the many troll but for others that may be interested
There is another very good doco on the rise fall of the oligarchs and the Yeltsin years the Putin taking down the oligarchs. He had to wait until after the first election and he had a four year term as the oligarchs owned or controlled all the media. Although he had six months as interim president before the next election, he set the election date for three months. Just as good as those produced by stone. Will try and dig it up

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 15 2024 6:16 utc | 132

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 14 2024 14:58 utc | 9
I heard – maybe Martyanov – that in some areas there was a 30-40 to 1 death rate. Absolute slaughter and bodies deep. Just left there. The thaw will be unbearable.

Posted by: Inki | Jan 15 2024 6:37 utc | 134

Posted by: too scents | Jan 15 2024 6:56 utc | 135
.
The amount mentioned was marked as a fake report and deleted immediately.
.
As of January 15, 24, 8:00 a.m., there has been no confirmation from either Ukraine or Russia, nor has there been any confirmation from neighboring states that monitor the airspace there

Posted by: ossi | Jan 15 2024 7:20 utc | 136

TIn nuclear strategy, the first strike is everything.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 14 2024 23:27 utc | 68
Please tell me everything you know about nuclear strategy Brave Sir Shadowbanned….Oh you did already.
I guess you’ve never heard of assured retaliation posture? No, didn’t think so. Never heard of the nuclear triad? Never heard of Type II deterrence? Your knowledge is 1951 level.
For those reading, this is why Brave Sir Shadowbanned is a troll. He makes comments such as these, false assertions without any knowledge or depth behind them. All in a bid to stir people up. He is no Russiaphile.

Posted by: James M. | Jan 15 2024 7:24 utc | 138

@comrade simba | Jan 14 2024 23:30 utc | 69
Some really nice stuff from Dmitry there comrade.

A war between equal forces is, according to Svechín, always won by the method of exhaustion: the destruction of the enemy’s key forces not through a chain of defeats but by a consistent arithmetic advantage in the ratio of losses such that the enemy cannot win

And what do you know, a tiny Russian force in a tiny corner of Ukraine is exhausting the whole of NATO. Definitely the SloMO must go on. Arch was recently talking about the US led West as being an “Empire of Chaos”. This is true, but its more an “Empire of Controlled Chaos” because the West doesn’t want everything collapsing everywhere at once, because things might get out of control, so the West wants there to be some sort of schedule to the chaos for it to be manageable.
But Russia draining the living daylights out of NATO in Ukraine is impacting the West’s control of the chaos, because instead of the West managing matters in a calm and steady manner, now the West is in constant crisis management mode, unable to devote the time and energy to their controlled chaos objective. So Russia must just continue with its SloMO and ignore all the pleas from all the angles for full scale military intervention, even with nukes, in Ukraine.
While the case can be made that Syria, Iran and North Korea must escalate matters to further exhaust the West, a WW3 type scenario would be letting the West off the hook. WW3 would enable the West to do all the things they want to in the West anyway, things like martial law, expropriation of private property, gun control, even more invasive immigrants, etc, etc. Keeping things SloMO means the people in the West still stand a chance by being able to resist all the stupid initiatives of their governments, the people in the West stand no chance if WW3 breaks out, they will be reduced to serfdom. So the SloMO must go on.

Posted by: gT | Jan 15 2024 7:34 utc | 140

Zelensky “will never” agree to freeze the war with Russia, said the head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak at the economic forum in Davos.
This is how he answered a question from a CNBS journalist. He said that Ukraine’s victory was “not obvious” and asked whether it was time to invite Russia to negotiations, given that US support was in crisis and the war in Ukraine could become frozen.
“This president, this team, we will never accept any frozen conflict. This is unacceptable for Ukrainian society,” said the head of the OP.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/21202

Western media confirm information from our sources that the meeting in Davos of national security advisers dedicated to Zelensky’s peace formula failed.
Bloomberg writes that all negotiations ended in Davos without a clear plan for further action.
•Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis said the meeting clarified the issues that will be discussed at some stage, but neither Ukraine nor Russia are ready to make territorial concessions. Russia must be included in the peace process in Ukraine.
The leader-level meeting that Ukraine would like to hold has not yet been scheduled.
•Ukraine is seeking to use the annual meeting of political and business leaders in Davos to renew attention to its situation. Today Zelensky will arrive in the Swiss capital Bern, and on Tuesday in Davos. The President of Ukraine is expected to hold bilateral meetings and make speeches. Ukraine will also hold round tables with investors and company executives on post-war reconstruction and the use of frozen Russian assets.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/21203

Posted by: Down South | Jan 15 2024 7:55 utc | 142

Metamars 124:
Absolutely horrible. There is absolutely nothing funny about this, for those on there responding with the laugh emoji. This is one set of Slavs killing another set of Slavs who have been enslaved by the American Empire.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 15 2024 8:07 utc | 144

While the case can be made that Syria, Iran and North Korea must escalate matters to further exhaust the West
Posted by: gT | Jan 15 2024 7:34 utc | 140
So you suggest Syria and Iran (perhaps Yemen and many others with no nukes) commit suicide and that way “win” by forcing US to spend two bucks on their deaths? It’s true that Kim can easily flatten Japan and SK but their nukes are not many enough to cause real problems for US. So far the Soviet weapons from nato were destroyed, which is indeed a good idea if Russia had this plan (but I doubt, they’re providing nato will all resources they ask, directly or thru India, so there’s no attrition plan), but nato’s own stuff is plenty and since they only do terrorism, stocks will last forever. When f16s will bomb Donbass, they will also be crap used as kamikaze. But they still can bring at least hundreds of old planes, nato’s real problem must be the pilots. So they plan now for drones and missiles, hence the recent Sunak-Zeli deal. I’m sure the nato “training” to start in a few weeks will “forget” a large number of weapons at the border, if they don’t even bring them inside. Who is going to stop them? The guys who are only now building bunkers in Belgorod? This “attrition” expands only in Russia but never in Ukr?
The great basement pensioner Marty from America has answered to questions on his blog that even if Donbass gets nuked from f16s, Russia won’t “escalate”. To “exhaust” nato’s nukes, right?

Posted by: rk | Jan 15 2024 8:55 utc | 146

A few days back, Medvedev warned Britain that British forces in Ukraine meant Britain was at war with Russia. He also warned about conventional strikes against strategic missile sites.
Today this. I will quote the whole article as the site has a paywall.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/01/15/grant-shapps-post-cold-war-peace-is-at-an-end/
The Defence Secretary is set to pledge to send 20,000 British military personnel to a major Nato exercise in eastern Europe as he warns the post-Cold War “peace dividend” is at an end.
Grant Shapps will warn that “battle lines are being redrawn” as he announces the deployment of Army, Navy and RAF members to the drill on Russia’s borders in a speech in London.
It will be the largest deployment of land forces to Nato since the height of the Cold War in 1984, a year before Mikhail Gorbachev became Soviet leader.
This comes after Rishi Sunak announced that Britain’s military funding to Ukraine would be increased to £2.5 billion in the coming year and the Foreign Secretary warned of the growing threat from Iran, which is funding terrorists such as Hamas and the Houthis who have been attacking ships in the Red Sea.
The “peace dividend” refers to the period after the collapse of the Soviet Union when Western countries were able to reduce spending on defence.
Warning his audience that this period of history was over, Mr Shapps will say: “We are in a new era and we must be prepared to deter our enemies, prepared to lead our allies and prepared to defend our nation whenever the call comes.
“Today our adversaries are busily rebuilding their barriers, old enemies are reanimated, battle lines are being redrawn, the tanks are literally on Ukraine’s lawn and the foundations of the world order are being shaken to their core. We stand at a crossroads.”
Mr Shapps’ words come at a time when the size of the British Armed Forces has fallen to a record low.
Figures from last month show there were 184,865 service personnel in October, including just 75,983 regular soldiers. Both these totals were down 4 per cent on the previous year.
Last week, it emerged that the Royal Navy has so few sailors it has had to decommission two warships to staff a new class of frigates.
Lord Cameron said it was “hard to think of a time” when there had been so much “insecurity” in the world and said the UK would strike again in Yemen if necessary. “The lights are absolutely flashing red on the global dashboard,” he said.
At his Lancaster House speech, Mr Shapps will say that Britain’s contribution to the Steadfast Defender exercise will provide “vital reassurance against the Putin menace”.
The war games come after ministers announced a further £2.5 billion support package to Ukraine and the RAF air strikes with the US on the Houthis in Yemen.
Mr Shapps will set out his vision for how the UK will deter threats, as allies remain concerned about the threat posed by Mr Putin as his war approaches its second year.
“I can announce today that the UK will be sending some 20,000 personnel to take part in one of Nato’s largest deployments since the end of the Cold War, exercise Steadfast Defender,” he will say.
“It will see our military joining forces with counterparts from 30 Nato countries, plus Sweden, providing vital reassurance against the Putin menace.”
Some 16,000 troops with tanks, artillery and helicopters will be deployed from the British Army across eastern Europe starting next month as part of the exercise. The drills will take place in Poland, the Baltic states and Germany.
The Royal Navy will deploy more than 2,000 sailors across eight warships and submarines, while more than 400 Royal Marines Commandos will be sent to the Arctic Circle.
The RAF will use F-35B Lightning attack aircraft and Poseidon P-8 surveillance aircraft.
Defence sources said that the exercise will prepare for the invasion of a member state by any aggressor, with the main threats being considered to be from Russia and from terrorism.
It comes as Rishi Sunak is set to make a statement to Parliament about the “limited and necessary” military action in Yemen and what further steps the UK will take.
British and US fighter jets dropped bombs on terrorist targets on Thursday night after the Houthis attacked a Royal Navy warship in the region.
Lord Cameron said: “Take a step back from this, it is hard to think of a time when there has been so much danger and insecurity and instability in the world.
“The lights are absolutely flashing red as it were on the global dashboard and what we need at that time is strong leadership and a clear plan, that is what we have with the Prime Minister and the team in place.
“If you don’t act against the Houthis in the Red Sea, you are going to see more attacks, they are effectively terrorist attacks, you will see more of that.”
The Foreign Secretary added: “There’s no doubt that the malign actor in the region who is behind these proxy groups is Iran. Iran backs Hamas, they back the Houthis.”
Making a connection
His remarks came as Sir Richard Dearlove, the former head of MI6, said the situation in Yemen was linked to the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas.
Ministers have tried to downplay suggestions that the situation in Gaza was responsible for increased attacks by Houthi rebels against Red Sea shipping.
But Sir Richard, who headed up the spy service from 1999-2004, said: “The problem is in the Middle East, in the Arab world, making that separation, particularly on the Arab street, is extremely difficult.
“But if one’s being rational in analysis I agree with David Cameron that freedom of navigation is a different issue from Gaza, but the Arab street doesn’t think that.”
He added: “Inevitably there’s a connection. They’re going to have an impact across the whole area.”

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 15 2024 9:52 utc | 148

Meet the new trolls.
Same as the old trolls.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jan 15 2024 10:27 utc | 150

Now cue the usual cope mechanisms or downplaying excuses. “It’s just an A-50 ! It has no impact on the conflict ! Ukies still get blown out of the water !” Yeah right. Reality is that, although the West hasn’t enough means to effectively push the LOC back, they still have lots of possibilities to drag this conflict for years. And reality is that the loss of even one A50 is seriously impacting the ability of Russia to control the airspace around the Black Sea, increasing commensurately the risk of hits on the rear or the Crimean Bridge.
Lastly, I think no one will dispute the fact that Russia would have avoided such a loss if it could. But the fact is they are facing a peer adversary and that NATO is far from being useless.

Posted by: Micron | Jan 15 2024 10:39 utc | 152

@ Micron | Jan 15 2024 10:35 utc | 151
—
Earlier Soviet/Russian IFF transponders had quite weak encryption. It is feasible that a vulnerability in the existing system has been discovered and exploited.
Certainly IFF protocols will be tightened.
An overview of Soviet IFF transponder/radar system from East German documentation is available here ==> https://www.mil-airfields.de/equipment/soviet-russian-iff-kremnij-parol.htm

Posted by: too scents | Jan 15 2024 10:46 utc | 154

Posted by: Micron | Jan 15 2024 10:35 utc | 151
If it’s “blue on blue” – well it comes with the nature of warfare.
If it’s the Ukrainians – well they’ve managed to hit bullseye since this is supposedly to have happened in the Sea of Azov.
If it is NATO – well say what you wanna say fast on this forum, because that’s an obvious declaration of war – and this forum will soon go offline.
Most likely it was “blue on blue” – shit happens in war.
Posted by: Cato in Norway | Jan 15 2024 11:11 utc | 155
I don’t agree with the explanation “shit happens”. I happen to have some responsabilities in my professional life, and this would qualify at 11 on a scale of 10 on my personal ranking of SNAFU. I can guarantee you I would have seriously chewed some ass within my team if some subordinates had screwed up that way. At my job that’s about the worst explanation someone can give to me when something fails.
This should never have happened. Fact. If I was in a position of responsability in Russia at minimum I would have some very visible sacking of officials. And I would rather have one or two guys shot, for the example.
Look it’s simple. The French republic was ruthless, and regularly killed top generals from 1790 to 1795 who didn’t live up to expectations. During World War I there was a massive wave of generals and colonels being sacked for incompetence (from memory, around 200 generals were sacked in the first year). Other officers who had not had promotions for decades suddenly saw themselves going from colonel to general in three months (Pétain being the prime example).
I do not see Russia doing this, and that’s the biggest issue. Examples have to be made.

Posted by: Micron | Jan 15 2024 11:26 utc | 156

“Trolls that quote propaganda and revel in willful ignorance like a pig wallowing in shit. What a pain these threads have become since b stopped cleaning house.”
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 15 2024 1:52 utc | 113
I grew up on a farm; pigs are actually very clean animals.
Pigs do ‘wallow’ but they do it in mud because they lack sweat glands so the wallow in mud to cool off.

Posted by: canuck | Jan 15 2024 11:28 utc | 158

They will now investigate whether the targets were illuminated by AWACS – and if so, that will probably have significant consequences. The Anglo-Saxons want to escalate at all costs – Russia will oblige them.

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Jan 15 2024 11:31 utc | 160

By the way repeating something over and over doesn’t make it true.
Posted by: John | Jan 15 2024 1:01 utc | 98
Wrong. And you are doing the repetitions.

Posted by: Naive | Jan 15 2024 11:35 utc | 162

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 15 2024 9:52 utc | 148
More money for military, less money for hospitals, for schools, for transports, for citizens…

Posted by: Naive | Jan 15 2024 11:39 utc | 164

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 15 2024 8:14 utc | 145
Yes, I take your point and from my knowledge of that situation agree with you. Thank you.
I have yet to reply to Membrane at #143 since I am deciding on how many historical facts he/she/it might be able to deal with.

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Jan 15 2024 11:52 utc | 166

Could the shootings of Il22 and A50 be retaliation for Lloyd Austin prostate cancer complications?

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Jan 15 2024 11:59 utc | 168

I have no opinion on that one:
https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/gonzalo-lira
But why not?
Btw I always prefer to read an analysis rather to listen to a video. (Thus many thanks to b!!!) Videos imho are useful to boost one personality to become famous, but are big time losing to watch and a reward for narcissistic people. I do not listen to Ritter or to Baud either. This last one is fake, for he is acknowledging the 911 offficial version in one of his books. Among other things.

Posted by: Naive | Jan 15 2024 12:01 utc | 170

Meh, so one plane damaged & one unknown.
I think people need to chill out. Things won’t be clarified for some time yet. Plenty of ‘sources” have been guilty of gratuitously premature claims on both sides.
After all it’s not like the MSM & Ukraine are going to correct any fibs later, if the A-50 is in the air tomorrow or mearely temporarily out of action.

Posted by: Urban Fox | Jan 15 2024 12:25 utc | 172

It seems that Il-22 was only damaged (but still probably put out of action for a while). No details though on the A-50. It would be indeed a blow considering the low amount of aircraft that Ru has of this type.
It would be interesting to know what caused this though. I highly doubt that it was some Ukr missile considering where this happened. If it’s ‘friendly-fire’, I hope the people that were in charge face a well deserved punishment.

Posted by: JamesBond | Jan 15 2024 12:34 utc | 174

Posted by: Membrum Virile | Jan 15 2024 8:04 utc | 143
Thank you for your insightful replies.
Firstly, the steady move of NATO to the East since the dissolution of the USSR in not disputable. The present regime in the Ukraine makes no secret of it’s desire to be included in this alliance, and probably views it as being essential for it’s own survival. At least some members of the NATO entity itself would welcome this situation.
It has not been lost on Russia that it’s historical adversaries in Western Europe have always desired these borderlands as a forward base against Russia. This has been the case ever since the demise of the Poland-Lithuanian union after wars in the 17’th century. A succession of Western European empires (regimes) have launched attacks on Russia from these areas- first the Swedes, then the French and in the mid 20’th century the Germans. These were all (at great cost) defeated by Russia which perceives another attempt by a (unified??) Europe in the guise of NATO. It would be criminally remiss of the RF to ignore this history and the possible (probable)future NATO adventure -if it is not already in its formative stages.
Yes the Russophilic populations in the Ukraine construct were mostly content provided that they were treated with dignity and allowed to maintain their own language, cultural ties and traditions. The post Mayden Kiev regime aggressively tried to squash these sentiments which culminated in the Ukrainian defeat in 2014. The Kiev regime and it’s Western backers then resorted to the lies of the Minsk agreements which fairly quickly resulted in the Russian SMO (or invasion if you prefer).
So far as puppets are concerned, NATO and the broader Westen powers certainly do use puppets -aka proxies- and I mention ISIS for starters- don’t have time to dig through history at length. Neverteless, the general whining demeanour of Zelensky and his idiotic and unrealistic utterances qualify the present Ukraine regime as being a puppet IMO.
On Chechnya, if the larger population of that country felt the time was right during the first revolt, then presumably the farsighted members of western intelligence services failed to recognise their own limitations. Obviously they did not or could not provide sufficient military support to keep the revolt going at full steam. The surviving heroic “freedom fighters” from this badly timed revolt must be really miffed when they see all the goody- goody bang-bangs provided by the collective west to Kiev, and think they may have been “duded”.

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Jan 15 2024 12:40 utc | 176

some parts of the Russian empire like Tuva and Mongolia were not included in the empire and became independent states.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 15 2024 5:23 utc | 128

Stopped reading right there.
Seriously, WTF is wrong with people…

Then what happened agar the defeat of the so called Caucasus Emirate? Chechnya was rebuilt from the ruins. It was given an almost incredible amount of autonomy, large federal grants and subsidies, and they even got to have their own loyalist army. Why the hell would Chechens want to rebel again? They have the best of both worlds now, autonomy inside Russia.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 15 2024 8:14 utc | 145

Also, an independent Chechnya is simply not viable geographically.
It would be landlocked, with a presumably hostile Russia surrounding it from all sides except the south, where nearly impassable mountains form the border with Georgia (look at the map — there are nice passes through the mountains elsehere, but not along the Chechen-Georgian border).
What are they going to do if they were independent?
Unless, of course, Dagestan and the Caspian coast was also detached from Russia.
Which is what they indeed tried to do later on in the 1990s and early 2000s.
This applies to most Russian autonomous regions — too remote and isolated to exist independently except as part of the whole.
It’s the same reason (to follow up from the above post about Tuva) that Tuva joined the USSR in 1944, and the same reason Mongolia applied to join the USSR I think at least six times.
P.S. To clarify for those who don’t know their history like Peter AU1 — the USSR exited WWII with the following pieces of territory added to it that had never been part of the Russian Empire previously:
1. Kaliningrad/Konigsberg (although it had in fact been under Russian control for a few years in the mid-18th century, but that was too brief to count)
2. Transcarpathia
3. Galicia
4. Northern Bukovina
5. Tuva (it had been under nominal Chinese control, then became independent after the Chinese collapse in the early 20th century, the voluntarily joined the USSR in 1944)
6. the whole of the Kurils Islands
Also, Southern Sakhalin had been Russian only for 30 years before the 1905 war with Japan too, but was recovered after WWII.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 15 2024 12:49 utc | 178

how TF do you shoot down your own radar? Doesn’t make any sense.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 15 2024 12:46 utc | 177
—
It makes perfect sense if you understand how IFF can fail. A spoofed transponder interrogation paints a target on a friendly.

Posted by: too scents | Jan 15 2024 12:52 utc | 180

So apparently Ukraine again attacked Belgorod. Though the missiles where successfully intercepted falling debris impacted and totally destroyed a Russian ant hill, mass casualties amongst the Russian ants (still waiting for confirmation on the queen). If this isn’t a reason for a nuclear first strike what is? Time to put up or shut up Putin.

Posted by: Tranny Cirillo | Jan 15 2024 12:55 utc | 182

One more thing — I don’t think F-16s can carry Meteor missiles. Only Typhoons and F-35s.
So draw your conclusions.
Maybe they have modified the F-16s, who knows. Or…

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 15 2024 13:00 utc | 184

This type of soothing commentary, yeah let’s see later, we don’t have all the facts… is exactly the greatest disservice you can make for the Russian forces. On the contrary we need, everyone needs, to mercilessly point out what goes wrong and not let go. Because there is some serious purging to be done.
Posted by: Micron | Jan 15 2024 12:58 utc | 183
—————-
Like a good ole “loyal” Copperhead?
There are stern words for behaviour like *that* in wartime buddy.
Also how long before that mask slips, then suddenly the RF has to end this. hopelessly interminable war?
Even though they’re winning and inevitably *going* to win. Due to the unchangeable power & military potential of the respective sides.

Posted by: Urban Fox | Jan 15 2024 13:19 utc | 186

Forget to mention, Russia will only ignore nukes if they are small nukes. If they are too big Russia will have no choice but to respond in kind with interest. All the fighting in Ukraine is currently occurring in Russian eastern Ukraine, so the Ukrainians are currently defending their territory by going to fight in Russian territory. How do you defend your territory by going to fight in another territory, the Ukrainians are the aggressors in this instance. But then again western Ukraine has no value and is not worth fighting over, all the wealth is in eastern Russian Ukraine.

Posted by: gT | Jan 15 2024 13:31 utc | 188

And of course now all the warboys will be crying that Russia must respond to nukes with nukes and all the fruit loops will be bawling about all the sacrosanct Russian civilian lives lost. Russia does not think like West does dammit, Russia thinks differently, its not Western, its not Eastern, the mindset is something else. Stop trying to understand Russia in stupid Western terms.
Posted by: gT | Jan 15 2024 13:22 utc | 187

Look, you yourself noted that the West’s game is to cause destruction so that its own position rises by default by virtue of it being intact.
It’s the same game they’ve been playing since the 17th century, only now on an even grander scale worldwide.
So what happens if you keep turning the other cheek? You get destroyed.
This isn’t the Chechen war — Russia took some hits, but Putin vowed to destroy the terrorists, then actually went to work and destroyed the terrorists, and then it ended.
But that’s not what we have here — the terrorists are jet setting the globe and nobody is touching them. The model here is Syria — Assad was boxed in inside his own country, didn’t escalate outside of theater, handed off his deterrent (an in case it has been forgotten, Putin tricked him into doing it), and ended up with a broken country geographically, with all his industrial base destroyed, being bombed weekly by Israel, with terrorists launching new attacks from inside the country regularly, and with the war about to restart and the country being under threat of being finished off at any moment.
Obviously Russia is much larger and it will take a lot more to get it to that position, but that is what turning the other cheek gets you in the end.
So at some point you have to stop playing under those unfavorable to you rule and put an end to it.
The question of the worshippers of the omniscient omnipotent and omnibenevolent 5D chess masters in the Kremlin here refuse to answer is when exactly that point is going to come.
Because if the never comes then logically we run turning the other cheek to infinity and you end up destroyed.
P.S. Something else to consider — Russia has a bit of a first-strike advantage right now, but that current first-strike advantage is not going to last forever. So strategically the situation will get worse, not better the longer this goes on beyond a couple years from now.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 15 2024 13:45 utc | 190

The whole rush to Kiev alone is an embarrassment to any serious military.
Posted by: John | Jan 15 2024 0:40 utc | 92
Let me guess, you consider thr Maericans, defeated in every conflict they have entered over that past half century.. oh, I guess there’s always Grenada..despite selecting countries with no means to defend themselves, a ‘serious military’. Even thr Maerican WW2 intervention was only due to the clear victory of the Russians.
You’re a clown.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 15 2024 14:23 utc | 192

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8895800.html?page=2#comments
Ukrainian Lt-Gen Stanislav Pavlovych killed on January 10, apparently by a Russian missile. He may be the highest-ranking AFU officer killed in the SMO.

Posted by: Waldorf | Jan 15 2024 14:35 utc | 194

I’m sorry Maericans that the Russians will ignore your provocations and continue to implement their effective strategy while you circle the drain economically, morally, diplomatically and militarily and do increasingly vile and always strategically irrelevant terrorism in the vain hope someone will play the game as stupidly as you have.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 15 2024 14:40 utc | 196

Peter AU1 | Jan 15 2024 9:52 utc | 148
*** Mr Shapps will say: “We are in a new era and we must be prepared to deter our enemies, prepared to lead our allies and prepared to defend our nation whenever the call comes.***
Wonder which “our nation” Shapps refers to. It certainly isn’t British.

Posted by: Cynic | Jan 15 2024 14:43 utc | 198

Zorge, you have to be about the only here who thinks that the west will go nuclear to save the Ukies government.

Posted by: Morongobill | Jan 15 2024 15:22 utc | 200