The small crossings of the Dnieper continue. The overall futility of them is well enough established that even Ukrainian sources with Ukrainian soldier accounts are common. Now it’s been a relatively mild winter so far but I saw a video yesterday where a Russian drone was dropping charges at an inflatable boat. It missed and the soldiers made it to the left bank and scrambled out (the boat and all its supplies was hit just after). What I thought about was all those guys got to the other side with no supplies and limited cover. They arrived all soaked from the waist down at least.

Posted by: Lex | Jan 7 2024 16:04 utc | 3

@Lex 2.
Yes, that video is all over Telegram. This is exactly what made Surovikin evacuate the right bank; it was always going to be a nightmare to support the troops there logistically (and also pointless occupying it once Russia obviously was not going to launch an attack on Nikolayev and Odessa). Now Ukranazistan is discovering that amphibious assaults are more enticing to start than maintain.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 7 2024 16:19 utc | 5

I think the SMO has to be seen as a fixing attack; a tar-baby to suck up the resources of the west; and as such, don’t expect it to end until the west stops sending support and the Ukes surrender. In the meantime, new fronts open, such as Israel, and more western resources are drained and tied down. Hezbollah can tie down 120k IDF at the cost of a few rockets. Yemen can cut Red Sea shipping with a few drones, and the west simply can’t do anything about it. If there’s a hint that they are attempting to concentrate forces against Yemen/Iran, DPRK shells an island, and pins US forces in the Far East. Any attempt to put out one fire leads to the outbreak of another, and the west doesn’t have the firemen to deal with them. They didn’t even try in Niger, because of the drain of the SMO, and I expect the US base there will close in the not too distant future without a shot fired.
The Empire is in decline. It can only save itself, for the time being, by retreating in good order. Of course, given the structural demands of advanced capitalism, that spells ultimate defeat- so expect the Empire to hang on as long as it can in its faraway frontiers, no matter how futile it is obviously is.

Posted by: Honzo | Jan 7 2024 16:24 utc | 7

Aleks from Black Mountain Analysis dropped a huge and detailed article about the destiny of Ukraine, the EU, and the US.
It is also the conclusion of his Economics and Empires series and containsa lot of economic backgrounds as well.
Highly recommendable:
https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/economics-and-empires-6-i

Posted by: Thomas | Jan 7 2024 16:49 utc | 9

this may seem offtopic, but can anyone here provide a direct link to that disgusting and insulting ukrainian state tv music video that they released on christmas eve? (orthodox, not their newfound satanic one). i saw a clip in the latest alex christforou video at the 33:40 mark of it. cant sort that twitter account of blackrussian tv by date where that video is posted allegedly.
i just want to show that to our oh so christian neighbours that say that its not an ukrainian ethnic cleansing and cultural genocide against the ukrainian people of russian heritage.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Jan 7 2024 17:13 utc | 11

Good God, the ‘U.K. is recycling every trope in Ukraine
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-is-on-course-to-lose-500-000-troops-by-end-of-2024-after-turning-its-forces-into-a-low-quality-high-quantity-mass-army-says-uk-intel/ar-AA1mAk3d
summary:
1. Russia on track to lose 500k soldiers by end of this year.
2. Russian troop quality is deteriorating and rate of losses is increasing.
3. Russia uses ‘human wave tactics’.
… more but I had to stop reading article which was unprofessional B.S. I do need to keep some food down.
We simply cannot stop eating our own B.S.

Posted by: Christian J Chuba | Jan 7 2024 17:42 utc | 13

The M1 Abrams tanks supplied by the USA to Ukraine are so unsuitable for war that they have not yet been used at the front. Aside from the fact that, like the German Leopards, they are far too heavy for the Ukrainian terrain and can therefore quickly get stuck in the Ukrainian mud, the M1 Abrams tanks are also so poorly armored that they have not even been used yet the front sends. Retrofitted armor is supposed to help, but this can only be used in the dry season next summer because it makes the tanks even heavier.
Posted by: ossi | Jan 7 2024 16:45 utc | 7
The Abrams is pretty well armored, or at least the Leopard 2 should not have a massive edge over it when talking comparable versions; in addition it has separate storage with external venting for all its ammunition which I believe no other tank has (usually it is partial if present at all) a big plus in my book.
They are probably being husbanded due to political considerations, weight/mud and as a final reserve. If hit I would rather be inside one than any russian tank short of the Armata.

Posted by: Satepestage | Jan 7 2024 17:46 utc | 15

summary:
1. Russia on track to lose 500k soldiers by end of this year.
2. Russian troop quality is deteriorating and rate of losses is increasing.
3. Russia uses ‘human wave tactics’.
… more but I had to stop reading article which was unprofessional B.S. I do need to keep some food down.
We simply cannot stop eating our own B.S.
Posted by: Christian J Chuba | Jan 7 2024 17:42 utc | 12
Remember to always replace Russia with Ukraine in such reports and it becomes the truth…

Posted by: Zet | Jan 7 2024 18:04 utc | 17

Anyone who is interested should read to find out the truth, whoever has a better source… bring it on or keep quiet about losses
.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-4423-huge-tuesday-update-bonanza

Posted by: ossi | Jan 7 2024 18:19 utc | 19

Seems like a lot of trouble given the installation works will be visible from space so there won’t be many secrets.
https://t.me/milinfolive/113929

Production and digging of Ukrainian metal underground shelters for personnel, which are now being installed en masse on enemy defense lines along the entire front.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jan 7 2024 18:34 utc | 21

The small crossings of the Dnieper continue. The overall futility of them is well enough established that even Ukrainian sources with Ukrainian soldier accounts are common. Now it’s been a relatively mild winter so far but I saw a video yesterday where a Russian drone was dropping charges at an inflatable boat. It missed and the soldiers made it to the left bank and scrambled out (the boat and all its supplies was hit just after). What I thought about was all those guys got to the other side with no supplies and limited cover. They arrived all soaked from the waist down at least.
Posted by: Lex | Jan 7 2024 16:04 utc | 2

It isn’t futile for NATO.
Russia is losing men, artillery, radars and air defense every day on the left bank.
Yeah, Ukrainians die. Nobody cares, that is their role in this game. As long as Russians are dying and losing materiel, that is a win.
And when the Ukrainians run out, the Poles, Romanians, etc. will be sent.

The tanks delivered to Ukraine by the West were not miracle weapons, but rather exposed the weaknesses of the Western arms industry. This also applies to other Western weapon systems that are not suitable for real war use.

Maybe, but so what? Those are old tanks, already paid for, and what were they going to be used for anyway? Nobody will fight an open land war with Russia. It will be a missile war with nukes. So as long as you can get a lot of Russians killed, disposing of that equipment is not a real cost.

Western pilots, including those from the USA, have NEVER been able to experience a worthy opponent in live air combat…live on theory and brag about their missions against sandal warriors.
Let alone that these pilots ruled or HAD to in an area with the best air defense in the world!
In Vietnam the USA lost their jets in rows against Mig 23 and Mig 25!
Posted by: ossi | Jan 7 2024 16:45 utc | 7

Same with the planes. There are thousands of F-16s towards the end of their life span. Throw them at Russia — it’s a low cost way to eat AD missiles, score some kills on their air force, and destroy a fair few Russian air defense units. Those are real losses for Russia with the war that really matters in mind — in the future missile war it will be naval, air and air defense assets that matter.
But NATO is not losing their key assets (OK, the US isn’t, Europe has been sacrificed in advance for many decades), while Russia gradually is.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 7 2024 18:37 utc | 23

Honzo @ 6

They didn’t even try in Niger, because of the drain of the SMO, and I expect the US base there will close in the not too distant future without a shot fired.

I’d hold off on the optimism, bet this is like Vietnam, USA is muzzling in on the France’s turf, or, more correctly not so much its turf but vassal France is being fired for having fucked up management of Central Africa while the Emperor was busy with other things.
ossi @ 7

That Odessa will be his next and most important target should be clear to the stupidest Western analyst…NATO is finished and will NOT be able to prevent it..

Guaranteed RF will take Kharkov and Odessa, after all the military trouble RF has had with attacks on Crimea and the entire Belgrade area from Odessa and Kharkov areas, it’s impossible they won’t do whatever is necessary to take those cities. No other reasons matter, culture, history, demographics, if 1 million Papua New Guineans lived in Odessa with no ties to Russia whatsoever, Russia would still have to take it. It would be an enormous strategic blunder for Russia’s future security to not own it fully and garrison it, and this war is all about Russia’s future security. Even if the Putin administration for some reason tried to make a bargain over those cities the MoD would overrule or overthrow him. Russia is waiting for the AFU to collapse or falter enough to make their move with minimal death and destruction, everything about this war has been scorched earth, actually lunar landscape, by NATO and their Ukrainian lackeys, I’m sure they would have no problem razing Odessa and Kharkov to the ground. Question is how will the USA respond to Russia’s attempt to taking Odessa and forever ending their well planned dream of controlling the Black Sea. It’s a big, costly, dream to end. If NATO responds militarily then we are in the prelude to war not the final stage of the SMO.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 7 2024 19:10 utc | 25

^ muzzling in =s muscle in.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 7 2024 19:17 utc | 27

everything about this war has been scorched earth, actually lunar landscape, by NATO and their Ukrainian lackeys, I’m sure they would have no problem razing Odessa and Kharkov to the ground.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 7 2024 19:10 utc | 25

They’re actually on video now, sending tanks to blow up all buildings in the Donbass villages they are retreating from, so that there is nothing left for the Russians…

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 7 2024 19:36 utc | 29

USA saved the entire world from Nazism in the 1940’s.
russia would be a province of The 3rd Reich if USA hadn’t come to save their sorry azzes!
Now another wannabe world tyrant (Pooh-tin) has risen up and must be destroyed by USA…

Posted by: utc | Jan 7 2024 20:25 utc | 31

Posted by: Honzo | Jan 7 2024 16:24 utc | 7
very interesting comment. makes a lot of sense to me.
Posted by: utc | Jan 7 2024 20:25 utc | 31
just as soon as it beats the Taliban, i’m sure it will get right on it. The US can’t win direct wars, and it is in the process of losing yet another proxy war. rewriting World War 2 history won’t change that.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jan 7 2024 20:59 utc | 33

@ 31 utc
You got the first part right but you need to invert the second part, because Putin is liberating Europe.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Jan 7 2024 21:03 utc | 35

“USA saved the entire world from Nazism in the 1940’s.”
A perfect example of the level of education and understanding in the west.
Really makes me wonder if these people are ignorant enough to fire off nukes.

Posted by: armati | Jan 7 2024 21:13 utc | 37

Reading TG the biggest hell since the start of the SMO is raining down in the Kharkov area. It’s been building for a while, reaching a crescendo maybe, something is certainly up.
Very heavy shelling in the Kharkov region, very. There has not been such an intensity of strikes since the very beginning of the Northern Military District
Our army will use all available weapons for a reason, soon something will become clear
https://t.me/remylind21/11596

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 7 2024 21:30 utc | 39

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Jan 7 2024 21:36 utc | 40
anybody with an ounce of self respect and intellectual integrity realizes the USSR played the most important role in defeating Germany in World War 2.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jan 7 2024 21:44 utc | 41

but my lips always must speak the truth.
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Jan 7 2024 21:36 utc | 40
when are you going to start?

Posted by: Justpassinby | Jan 7 2024 21:47 utc | 43

@41 pretzel
The original comment by unc is correct in its first part.
Without global intervention and the Soviets teaming up with the west, the Soviet Union would not have survived.
This comment can exist perfectly alongside the notion that the Soviets sacrificed the most, for which brute statistics clearly confirm.
I don’t see the great trouble in affirming this truth. Does it hurt communist pride that they needed western capital to survive?
Evidently so.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Jan 7 2024 21:49 utc | 45

it is already difficult to provide sufficient protection on the frontal arc against high end threats with something to spare for basic all around RPG protection without getting into Maus territory.
Posted by: Satepestage | Jan 7 2024 20:31 utc | 32

Russia has nuclear-powered cruise missiles now, which means it has achieved sufficient miniaturization of nuclear reactors, as well as, presumably, mass production of those.
Might it not be time for a nuclear-powered megatank? You can also fit it with all kinds of high-powered weapons, DEW defense from kinetic threats, etc.
Assuming weight and reliability are not a total deal breaker, of course…

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 7 2024 22:01 utc | 47

@40.
the probability that your alternate reality occurs is <10%.
germans were unfettered through Oct 1942 (ike goes into morocco, germans did their own over extending error going after suez.
germans were forced back from moscow in dec 1941. they were smashed around stalingard in dec 1942.
there were more issues with german meeting the few casualties in tanks than soviets replacing massive losses!
the axis when on the defense enjoyed interior lines, their main advantage other than less than reliable wunderwaffen, like nato today.
but i suppose you can presume the Brits would have gone all in with hitler, as today, to get the slavs.

Posted by: paddy | Jan 7 2024 22:19 utc | 49

Apparently Ukraine took out 2 Pantsir Systems in the Belgorod region.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-pantsir-s1-air-defense-systems-ukraine-1858428
Russia Loses Two Prized Pantsir Systems As Ukraine Mocks ‘Leaky’ Defenses

Posted by: bored | Jan 7 2024 22:26 utc | 51

Apparently Ukraine took out 2 Pantsir Systems in the Belgorod region.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-pantsir-s1-air-defense-systems-ukraine-1858428
Russia Loses Two Prized Pantsir Systems As Ukraine Mocks ‘Leaky’ Defenses
Posted by: bored | Jan 7 2024 22:26 utc | 51

If you look at the drone footage, it looks like misses.
But that is not the most important thing, that is the fact that those might have been non-Ukrainian drones.
So more NATO weapons used to attack official Russian territory.
And still no reaction to it…

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 7 2024 22:37 utc | 53

Assuming weight and reliability are not a total deal breaker, of course…
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 7 2024 22:01 utc | 47
You want something that can be put on railcar for strategic movement, move on roads, negotiate terrain as well as possible and as many bridges as feasible ;all of this pretty much takes the mega part out of it.
Western tanks weight has not gone much further than late war german heavies, say 70 ton or so, soviets/russian has mostly stuck to less than 50, the only exception being the IS-4 which got a one way ticket for the Far East ASAP and to static position not long after.
That is the polite answer, otherwise what Guderian said about the Maus is still applicable.

Posted by: Satepestage | Jan 7 2024 22:44 utc | 55

Ukraine’s defeat is strengthening some NATO weapons like HIMARS, sea drones, cheap rotor drones, etc. This is dangerous. Russia must develop new weapons to counter them and defeat these NATO weapons during the war. Not thereafter.

Posted by: Jason | Jan 7 2024 22:47 utc | 57

Russia and China are Melding | Dmitry Orlov on Dialogue works:
Very insightful/interesting interview. Jan 6,2023
====
From transcript
“… 1:19 it was a special military operation the function of the operation so far was to gain some territory for Russia which was Russian territory to begin with and to prove that the United States is militarily toothless along with the European Union that NATO is basically a paper tiger that can’t fight and that there will be peace because nobody 1:54 wants a nuclear war and that peace will be on Russia’s terms… that’s basically what what China saw and observed. It never joined the sanctions bandwagon against Russia. It continued to trade with Russia and now it Chinese trade with Russia is um on the order of $200 billion dollar a year which is quite a lot uh and growing very nicely uh and it’s it’s not going to
back away from Russia it’s not going to join this anti-russian uh bandwagon no matter what
4:33 the sanctions and The Cutting Russia off from Swift and and the freezing of Russian foreign reserves…all big huge presents that the West made to Russia it couldn’t have done a better job in making the Russians realize what they have to do to become self-sufficient and not reliant on on hostile on hostile foreign countries. So now Russia has a far successful economic system
[The US is] …. basically abandoning the ukrainians. They basically abandon everyone…the United States always fights Wars 6:53 until they stop being profitable so they’ve reached that point with the Ukraine… they’ve basically used up all of their old armaments which they sold at face value even though most of that stuff was just junk ready to be scrapped… a lot of it didn’t explode. A lot of other worn out stuff got shipped there and was claimed as Revenue by defense contractors….The ukrainians are just cannon fodder
There’s really nothing that they can do militarily to Russia and it turns out that they no longer can do anything to Russia economically or politically so
9:49 yes the Europeans can’t fight. They can’t do anything they can’t stand up for themselves they they they can’t even elect a government that will pay
attention to the individual European countries national 10:07
I don’t think that there is any possibility of a nuclear confrontation barring some really extravagant accident and you have to keep in mind that most of the money that’s spent on nuclear weapons is is spent on making sure that they’re never used because uh nuclear weapons are deterrence weapons they’re deterrent uh they’re not meant to be 10:52 used they’re and that’s one one of the things that very few people realize about nuclear weapons is that
if at any point you use a nuclear weapon you lose by so doing it’s it’s not a weapon to use it’s a weapon to force others not to use nuclear weapons that’s all…
They [the USA] have 13:17 to act as if they’re indispensable and and Powerful even if they’ve been 13:24 dispensed with by everyone and are no longer powerful because the alternative really complete dysfunction even greater dysfunction within the political… it’s unavoidable but they they’re trying to uh collapse in politically in slow motion as as opposed to all at once…..they they have to borrow something like a trillion and a half a year just to
14:08 keep the federal government operating and it doesn’t seem like they’ll be able to keep up the borrowing rate given that everybody is dollarizing as quickly as they can
Once the United States collapses into Civil War which is being talked about 14:53 constantly but nothing is being done about it but once that civil war starts 14:58 and it will probably start the moment the federal government is shut down for 15:04 good, the rest of the world won’t have to worry about the United States very much it it’ll just be a non problem…
———————–
———————–
Russia and China are Melding | Dmitry Orlov (36.5 minutes)
Dialogue works
https://youtu.be/JBz4fOUk37Y?si=on3JlXh2AP0V67mt

Posted by: Toby C | Jan 7 2024 23:07 utc | 59

USA saved the entire world from Nazism in the 1940’s.
Posted by: utc | Jan 7 2024 20:25 utc | 31
I am sure by now utc has had a good history lesson, however I am compelled to ask ‘how come the Red Army got to Berlin first if we were all saved by the US?’ But I am also sure utc’s comment was just thrown in here for his own amusement.

Posted by: Ink | Jan 7 2024 23:18 utc | 61

NemesisCalling@56
Nothing was more utilitarian in its crudest form than the Nazi regime- that, rather than sadism or evil thoughts, was the logic behind every aspect of oOperation Barbarossa including the design of the Concentration Camps and a slave labour system which, by 1945, involved millions of men and women being worked to death on short rations.
It was very much like that Utilitarian dream, the Workhouse system after the 1834 Poor Law Amendment Act. When we say that Nazism was the apotheosis of liberalism we are referring to its espousal of utilitarian Political Economy in a form which by the C20th, had become quite discredited in the UK, France and to a lesser extent the United States.
Never mind Heidegger, who came to his criticism of fascism late in the game- look at the development of liberal reformism, progressivism and the various forms of populist nationalism which were reactions to Utilitarianism in practice. They thrived despite the vigorous defence of utilitarianism by the Austrian School of economists, industrialists and other champions of capitalism, most of whom either rallied to fascism or flirted with it, in the coy manner of Neville Chamberlain, because, like the Nazis they detested democracy and the latent promise, within it, of strictly regulating capitalism.
Consider Keynes.
The Utilitarians came into their own in the British Empire and in India particularly where the dangers inherent in ruthless attacks on popular living standards were mitigated by the existence of sup authoritarian governance. In a word you couldn’t treat the people of Yorkshire the way you could treat the Bengalis- because policing in the metropolis was always based on degrees of consent not needed in India until the late ’30s or the war, when what the ordinary Indian, with the Japanese alternative around the corner, thought of the Emperor became crucial. There is a book about it written by a man who fought at Imphal in the war-Eric Stokes.

Posted by: bevin | Jan 7 2024 23:33 utc | 63

“..the allied invasion of Sicily where Hitler moved much of his Army from the eastern front to meet them.” NemesisCalling@40
You may hate the Soviet Union, you clearly do. Equally clearly, by the way that you dance on the graves of the Red Army dead, you are deeply invested in the Nazi victory. But this sort of revisionism is beyond contempt.
My father and both his brothers fought in the Italian campaign and the Invasion of Sicily, they were all Tories but none of them ever doubted that the Wehrmacht was unable to deploy more than a tithe of its reseves because of the Eastern Front.
Every British soldier knew that Sicily-the long overdue Second Front- was the very least that could be done to remove the pressure of the Nazis and the armies of most of occupied Europe on the Red Army.
I presume that you are ignorant- the alternative would be to believe that you would have rallied to the swastika in person as you now do in your commentary.

Posted by: bevin | Jan 7 2024 23:43 utc | 65

Kiev’s problem with the broken-down German tanks”. Unfortunately, Spiegel doesn’t tell you what exactly the problem is with the supposedly best battle tank in the world
ossi | Jan 7 2024 16:45 utc | 8
It would appear that, quite logically, the German supply system for parts, many ordered years ahead, is optimised for peacetime use and for general maintenance. The SMO in Ukraine is creating a demand for parts that are not included in those schedules, like for example mine damaged tracks, damaged chunks of engine protection armour (both favorite targets) so are just not available. Almost the only source is cannibalisation of existing tanks and the Germans are not too happy about supplying them.
Compounding this is the high maintenance requirements of most Western, not just German, vehicles that is proving difficult to achieve, often by lack of engineering skilled soldiers and the physical conditions, mud, that doesn’t allow access. This is causing lack of lubrication so failures, especially track components, which again are not needed in peacetime so are on long leadtimes.
Similar problems on the Abrams, though less visible as they are rarely seen in the wild, particularly filter changes that can’t be accessed due again to mud.
This is all on top of the different designs of Western vehicles, complicated needed skilled operators, compared to Russian/Soviet where simplicity is the name of the game. The difference between show ponies and carthorses.

Posted by: JohninMK | Jan 8 2024 0:11 utc | 67

utc–Ultimate turd cranium.
Thanks for ossi and his postings!

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 8 2024 0:29 utc | 69

About tanks:
There was a question on Quora about why Russia doesn’t build huge tanks like the Abrams and Leopard 2. Most of the responses were the usual crap like “Russia doesn’t care about its soldiers” “Russia values quantity, not quality”, etc.
I tried my own reply:
The basic answer: Russia designs tanks to defend its own territory, not to fight wars of choice halfway around the world.
How does this affect tank design?
This is how:
Russian tank design was very closely influenced by the tank battles of WWII, with close range fighting between large armoured formations on the flat plains of Eastern Europe. This particular kind of battle on this sort of terrain requires a particular kind of vehicle:
As low a silhouette as possible to be as small a target as possible.
As light as possible due to the muddy conditions and often swampy terrain.
As fast as possible to move into position and exploit breakthroughs.
The solution was a small, low tank of medium weight with its shape optimised to deflect enemy fire; the famous “inverted bowl” turret first seen on the T 54/55.
The problem was that this
Created a very cramped interior and
Also seriously affected the ability of the main gun to depress below the horizontal because the low turret roof got in the way.
This second point was not a major concern in the flat terrain of Eastern Europe where the vehicle was optimised to fight but became a major handicap in hilly or desert terrain – from Afghanistan to Libya – where ironically these (exported, because easily maintained, tough, and cheap) vehicles almost exclusively fought. The former was solved by fitting an autoloader, starting with the T 64, which is now standard in most tanks, not just Russian ones.
Western tanks, in contrast, were created as vehicles meant to fight not in defence of their own countries but as part of expeditionary forces in wars of choice worldwide. They therefore were built to be used in the most likely theatres of those ways of choice, oil rich countries with rugged and/or desert terrain. They are therefore large, roomy, and as a consequence of their size and height are able to depress their main guns to a much greater degree than Russian tanks. This was significant in grinding desert battles where Western tanks could remain almost hidden behind dunes with their guns at maximum depression to hit targets while Soviet tanks would have to expose themselves to do the same.
However, in today’s drone dominated battlefield, the huge Western tanks have shown themselves spectacularly vulnerable, and even Russian tanks are far too large. The most likely prospect going forward is a dramatic decrease in tank size, trending towards AI controlled crewless vehicles sized like the tankettes of the 1930s.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 8 2024 1:10 utc | 71

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 8 2024 1:10 utc | 71
>The most likely prospect going forward is a dramatic decrease in tank size, trending towards AI controlled crewless vehicles
Yes. Only reason for tanks versus drones is you want a big heavy cannon for some reason that is impractical in flying drones. Since no crew, you can dispense with most armor and just have the cannon, ammunition, underlying transport mechanism, with defense offloaded to nearby land and air drones specialized due defending the cannon drone. Make things as small as possible (taking into account assumed need for that heavy cannon), cheap, highly mobile, numerous, expendable, autonomous.

Posted by: anonposter | Jan 8 2024 1:45 utc | 73

I heard a good one today. How many dead ukies does it take to lose a war? All of them! Now that’s intertainment!

Posted by: nook | Jan 8 2024 2:20 utc | 75

@ 65 bevin
C’mon, bevin. I am not dancing on any soldier’s grave, even the ones that did absolutely contemptible things, whether murder, rape, desecration.
I pray for them.
But I am tormented by the question about ww2 and where we are today. And evidently many including you would like nothing more than to dispense with these questions.
Because you are a scientific communist, you can not entertain any line of questioning like this, so I know you are limited in what you can offer. I will continue, however, to try to give you the benefit of the doubt even though you are unable to help with this endeavor.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Jan 8 2024 2:28 utc | 77

” WEST”
British racism even against the whites and Westerners of Europe.
“WEST”
Ever wondered what word “the west” really means? It is not Mediterranean civilisation of greece, Italy,spain or even France. it is not north western european civilisation of germany or scandinavia. In fact all these countries have been spied upon by the nations who call and self designate themselves “the west” -a nation otherwise known as 5 Eyes !- A combination of england, usa,canada ,new zealand and australia- disparate nations geographically and not even european but esssentially anglosaxon race nations. A race based concept really.West is euphemism for anglos- it does not include any of other white european nations not even the msot westerly european nation of Ireland! The word “west” is a fraud to distract from real actors behind the scene-the 5 eyes. http://rt.com/news/china-nsa-e… April 21, 2011 “Those with a sense of irony may recall that Benjamin Franklin, one of the leading figures of the Enlightenment, warned that the newly liberated colonies should be wary of allowing Germans to immigrate, because they were too swarthy; Swedes as well. Into the twentieth century, ludicrous myths of Anglo-Saxon purity were common in the U.S., including among presidents and other leading figures.” Hence comes the myth of white-where white is a code word for English and English scumbag’s derived anglosaxon race who incidentally are much more swarthy than the Irish and Germans who were declared non-whites in usa according to their vocabulary. In other words anglosaxons though in minority have been able to get hold of power only by myth of white which is to pit one against another while they really mean it for the benefit of not all white races but anglosaxon race only. Cecil von Renthe-Fink is a mere footnote in the pages of history. A Prussian aristocrat who joined the Nazi Party in 1939, Renthe-Fink however has a claim to fame. In August 1943, he drafted a memorandum proposing a European economic union with a common central bank and currency. But there was a caveat – if the new union was to be a success, Britain must be kept out because according to the German diplomat it was “the continent’s ancient enemy”. Today several nations, especially Russia, would agree with that assessment. With 66,000 of its nationals on the run from justice, and a large number of them having found asylum in Britain, Russia is the most affected by Britain’s policies.

Posted by: Sam | Jan 8 2024 2:52 utc | 79

@Bevin 65
Coward English race waited for full one year before engaging the germans in Europe. Even then coward English sent secret message to hitler of token resistance only. So Hitler stopped his Generals from doing massacres of coward English and let the. Go by Dunkirk.
Bismarck.
Fact is that English cowards acquired empire through sly deceit and lies –even in the height of their so called pirate empire there were nothing compared to the French or germans of the day. they used others to run down who they want to take down-by propaganda to disarm and only after disarming them did the english dare attack unarmed civilians. notice how America is being instructed by English scumbags in the same tactics of using UNO to disarm others in name of nuke proliferation or what so ever and then attacking after years of sanctions. stupid Russians have not learnt anything from this mortal enemy . Believing in their own propaganda these English think that they got things through honourable use of arms-let us see what the germans though of them at the height of pirate empire in 1888. Bismarck When someone asked Bismark once what he would do if the British invaded, he said he’d have the border police arrest them (or words to that effect—“ “If the British Army landed in Europe, I’d get the Belgian police to arrest them.” ).-that is how low the Germans thought of the English army capability –and the Germans were right as was shown the cowardice of non fighting coward English troops in both world wars-they instigated others to fight but remained behind in actual fighting till late. Remember Bismarck said that when the pirate empire called british empire was at height of her pseudo power-in other words Prussians could defeat the English race at the height of their so called power. And rightly so. english then and now are ready to fight only unarmed civilians. Prussia was the strongest army in the world at that time. And had no empire worth talking about. It tells you how low English race is compared to the Germans and how much Germans could have gone up had they been not made to fight Russian in plot created by the English race-that plot is called world war one and two.

Posted by: Sam | Jan 8 2024 3:19 utc | 81

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 8 2024 0:09 utc | 66
I regret not archiving that browser plugin that enabled blocking certain commentators.
If anyone has a link to it, please share it.
======================================================
https://pastebin.com/raw/htQe7FHM
[filters out those whose posts one wants to avoid; their name in brackets, greyed out, shows, but none of the text of their post]
https://gist.github.com/tomdmr/1754a5d31cc970240b993559b1734ed2
[This one places the poster’s name at the top of the post instead of the bottom.]

Posted by: Scorpion | Jan 8 2024 3:59 utc | 83

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 8 2024 0:36 utc | 70
Describing geopolitical dynamics in terms of ‘Anglo-Saxons’, Germans, Chinese, Russians and US etc. without examining the intertangled finance-level skeins often hostile to all such seemingly competing entities whose endless conflicts benefited them falls short. (And quite possibly there are other higher-level networks in the mix as well.)
Otherwise, it’s insightful but only within an overly narrow bandwidth.

Posted by: Scorpion | Jan 8 2024 4:07 utc | 85

@84 north
Yes, I get that impression too. This does not mean we should denigrate the courage of the Soviets, however, for which you or I have no access to judge properly.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Jan 8 2024 4:23 utc | 87

Soviets could only manage parity despite having every advantage. The figures indicate a general incompetence on the Soviet side which they never really overcame.
Posted by: TheNorthernChef | Jan 8 2024 4:05 utc | 84
Every advantage? Such as what. Please be detailed. And bear in mind the geography and borders of the USSR at the time in light of who had control of them.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jan 8 2024 4:57 utc | 89

“Those who do not stand in amazement and awe at the way that the peoples of the USSR defended themselves (and all of us) during the war are guilty of irreverence bordering on contempt for humanity in a moment of the highest achievements of ordinary folk.”
Posted by: bevin | Jan 7 2024 21:11 utc | 36
If not in all caps, at least like this:
“Those who do not stand in amazement and awe at the way that the peoples of the USSR defended themselves (and all of us) during the war are guilty of irreverence bordering on contempt for humanity in a moment of the highest achievements of ordinary folk.”
(They did good by us here in the north of Norway, no question. Our elders know and remember. Kids not so much.)

Posted by: waynorinorway | Jan 8 2024 5:23 utc | 91

Honzo @ 6
They didn’t even try in Niger, because of the drain of the SMO, and I expect the US base there will close in the not too distant future without a shot fired.
I’d hold off on the optimism, bet this is like Vietnam, USA is muzzling in on the France’s turf, or, more correctly not so much its turf but vassal France is being fired for having fucked up management of Central Africa while the Emperor was busy with other things.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 7 2024 19:10 utc | 25
What you’re talking about is aspirational. In reality, the SMO, Israel, and general global power projection are draining the US capacity to actually go to war with a reasonable chance of success very badly. The SMO has changed the calculus of all the forces that want to roll back imperialism or assert their national sovereignty. The west was unable to mount a proxy war against Niger, and doesn’t have the resources to attack Niger directly with the expectation of getting anything done. NK’s demonstration helps keep it that way. If the US attempts to shift forces away from the areas it’s already ‘defending,’ you’ll see more local demonstrations erupt.

Posted by: Honzo | Jan 8 2024 5:53 utc | 93

📋🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Two Majors #Report for the Morning of 8 January 2024; pub. 06:59📍
🎯 Since evening, Geranium UAVs have been striking the #Odessa region. Explosions were recorded in #Odessa and #Ilyichevsk, and secondary detonation of objects was reported. The RF Armed Forces used missile weapons to hit targets in #Kharkov region. Explosions were reported near the Proton Radio Plant in #Kharkov and in the town of #Kupyansk. In the morning, 11 strategic bombers of the Russian Army went on a combat course.
▪️ In the #Kherson direction there is fighting near #Krynyki. A serious factor remains the enemy’s use of drones of all types to target artillery and direct attacks on our positions and equipment. Roads are being mined with the help of UAVs. Our troops respond with artillery fire and the destruction of boats carrying enemy troops. During the previous day 6 small boats of the AFU and up to 40 militants were destroyed.
▪️ On the #Zaporozhye front near #Verbovoye, an enemy IFV was destroyed and an enemy infantry counterattack was repelled in small arms combat. Near #Rabotino, after artillery preparation, the RF Armed Forces conducted an attack and took several enemy strongholds.
▪️ West of #Maryinka (#Kurakhovo direction), the RF Armed Forces occupied the territory of two churches in #Georgiyevka, advancing 300 metres forward. Fighting continues near the settlements of #Pobeda and #Novomikhaylovka.
▪️ In the #Avdeyevka sector, our troops are attacking two kilometres east of the Coke Plant in a southern direction in the area of garden communities. Fighting continues near #Stepovoye on the northern edge of the front.
▪️ West of #Artyomovsk (#Bakhmut) our troops have gained a foothold in the northern part of the #Bogdanovka settlement. There are heavy battles near the villages of #Khromovo and #Kleshcheyevka.
▪️ In the #Serebryanskoye forestry and near the #Torskoye ledge there is fighting, no new advances by the RF Armed Forces have been reported yet. Earlier, our troops pushed the enemy’s defence for several kilometres during the weeks of fighting.
💥 Yesterday, the village of #Kozino in the Rylsky district of the #Kursk region came under AFU shelling. In the #Bryansk region, two enemy UAVs were shot down over the Pogarsky and Sevsky districts. The most intensive shelling by the AFU is in #Belgorod region. 17 settlements were under fire during the previous day, and the enemy fired over a hundred rounds of ammunition. In the #DPR, two civilians in #Donetsk were wounded by the AFU shelling.
🎬 TARGETED in Kherson Region! The Night Hunt for Guinea Pigs (🇷🇺 Sea Pigs = 🇺🇦 Marines) continues🪖

https://t.me/sitreports/20713

Posted by: Down South | Jan 8 2024 6:39 utc | 95

🔥 Distributed pressure
While Ukrainian society, led by the Quarterissimus, is persuading itself that everything will be fine, Russia has changed its tactics.
Last year’s shelling occurred mainly at energy facilities. This was done to persuade Kyiv to negotiate. Well, what kind of president will continue to ruin the energy sector in the face of the obvious benefits of negotiations?
Moreover, a person measures everything by himself.
The Kremlin went to Istanbul after a certain level of suffered and predicted losses. So when Zaluzhny says that he made a mistake in calculating the level of losses that Moscow can afford without negotiating, he is disingenuous. He calculated everything correctly. Moscow entered into painful negotiations in Istanbul☝🏻
Moscow also expected that Kyiv would negotiate after the attacks on the energy sector, but no. Zele doesn’t give a damn about the future of anyone except himself.
Therefore, Moscow changed tactics. Peace will now be sought through the battlefield, as through a more obvious advantage.
For almost a year they accumulated missiles, Geraniums and brought a bunch of weapons from the DPRK. And so it all flew, only not to the energy sector, but to factories, workshops, weapons depots, airfields and air defense.
At the same time, Russia is applying new tactics at the front. They tried to organize a breakthrough in one place (Avdeevka), but when that didn’t work out they switched to “distributed pressure” tactics.
Its essence is to create as many points of tension as possible along the entire front line. They do this to realize their quantitative advantage in firepower.
If Ukraine has 10 Caesars, and the Russian Federation has 50 D-30s, then if all this is accumulated on one sector of the front, there will be no advantage. Range and accuracy are the deciding factor. However, if you spread it out into 10 directions, then the Ukrainian Armed Forces will simply not have enough weapons.
The same rule works for motivated units. “3rd Assault” can only be used in one place.
Therefore, as soon as the Ukrainian Armed Forces transferred several brigades from near Rabotino to Avdeevka, the Russian Armed Forces went on the offensive near Rabotino. And so on along the entire front.
Moreover, this tactic implies minimizing losses. If well-equipped and motivated units enter battle somewhere against the Russian Federation, they simply transfer the blow to another area. They always look for a weak point where there is no counter-battery, electronic warfare, etc.
You can leave all the stories about meat assaults for mono broadcast.
Please note that the geography of pressure is expanding every day. Moreover, at all points except Krynoki, on the initiative of the Russian Federation.
Such tactics do not provide quick visible superiority, which allows Kyiv to pretend that everything is fine, but strategically it increasingly ensures an imbalance of forces and means.
In this option, the key indicator will not be the m2 of territory, but the morale of the units.
Therefore, we believe that they will go on the offensive near Kharkov only if they are confident of complete superiority.

https://t.me/ZeRada1/17551

🔥 Attacks on rear areas
Pokrovsk (formerly Krasnoarmeysk), Kurakhovo and the surrounding area, Selidovo, Mirnogradskaya community (formerly Dimitrov) – every day several times the cities of the Donetsk region are now under fire.
A significant increase in shelling in this direction could be associated with the Russian seizure of Marinka, but this is not the only issue. It can already be stated that the Russian Army has adopted the tactic of striking rear areas.
Please note that Russian troops do not so much storm the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces as attack the rear. Of course, there is logic for them in this – reducing their losses. As we said, square kilometers of occupied territories are no longer the main priority. They are busy knocking out the reserves of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Instead of fighting against fortified positions, they inflict losses on the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the rear.
This is a bad sign ☝️ This tactic is not about captured cities and villages or “liberation of the entire territory of the DPR,” as they say in the Russian Federation. Its goal is to inflict a strategic defeat on the enemy. Individual operations are over for now; the war is going on with entire fronts and armies.
This sucks. Ukraine, with the current level of support from its partners, is not ready for such a war. We will simply run out of soldiers. Freeze/peace/truce (call it whatever you want) has long been more beneficial for Ukraine and the people of Ukraine. But, alas, not Zelensky.
Now we need peace not because it is the most acceptable option, but because it is now the only option for survival. There is no alternative anymore🤷‍♂️

https://t.me/rezident_ua/21108

Posted by: Down South | Jan 8 2024 6:47 utc | 97

Sorry mate but you are off track. First of all the soviets and then the russians have put autoloaders in every tank model since the T-64, so it is basically since the 60’s. That takes the form of carousel autoloader under the turret, with extra rounds carried all over the place in the crew compartment. They only partly fixed the latter starting from certain versions of the T-90 with external bustle storage (or at least that was what looked). Full separation has been around only since the Armata which is rather peculiar in how it protects.
Posted by: Satepestage | Jan 7 2024 19:10 utc | 26
.
Then you served in a different army like me!
Uh, have you ever sat in a Russian tank?
In the last around 2009 I not only read, spent hours and days in it….incidentally…the older models of the T still had a crew of 4. From around 1999 these were replaced…only with 4 men and automatic loading or semi-automatic. ..then completely reduced to 3 men with fully automatic operation.
Since you seem to know sooo much about Russian tanks??
Explain to me the circuit and engine… what can a newer T or Armada (without jet propulsion) like the one that is now being built again do, for example… refueling, how high is its range, how strong the floor armor of the driver/commander’s cabin, which It can cross rivers, at what water level, how long does it take to change the gun… how long does a complete engine change take… what is changed in the event of a repair to the loading mechanism and how long does that take?
Choice: 2 hours / 3 hours 4 or like Abrahams and Leo
Days weeks…not possible in the field!!

Posted by: ossi | Jan 8 2024 7:09 utc | 99