Ukraine Copies Russia's 'Active Defense' Tactic
Since September 2023 the Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu and President Vladimir Putin have multiple times commented on the operation of Russian forces in Ukraine. They described the disposition of Russian troops in Ukraine as 'active defense'.
- Shoigu says Russians engaged in ‘active defense’ in Ukraine: No option but to win - Al Arabia, Sept 13 2023
- "They are facing our active defense": Shoigu announced the improvement of the tactical position of the Russian Armed Forces in the NVO zone - Tellerreport, Oct 17 2023
- Ukraine updates: Russia making frontline gains, Putin claims - DW, Oct 15, 2023
Putin called Russia's Ukraine offensive "an active defense."
The U.S. Defense Department defines active defense as:
The employment of limited offensive action and counterattacks to deny a contested area or position to the enemy. See also passive defense.
I would add that the elimination of enemy salients and the general straightening of local defense lines is part of an active defense.
Russia has used this from of combat all over the frontline. Attacks have been small to gain limited ground, better positions or heights. Most of the time an active defense force will concentrate on the elimination of any local enemy offense and general enemy capabilities.
Russia has done well with this tactic because it allowed to destroy a huge number of Ukrainian forces who attempted to attack Russian positions again and again. In December, months after Putin and Shoigu had spoken about active defense, the neoconservative Institute for the Study of War declared that it was subterfuge:
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu continues to falsely characterize Russian offensive efforts in Ukraine as part of an “active defense” in an effort to temper expectations about the Russian military’s ability to achieve operationally significant objectives. Shoigu stated on December 1 during a conference call with Russian military leadership that Russian forces are conducting an “active defense” in Ukraine and are capturing more advantageous positions in every operational direction.
...
Shoigu and Putin both previously called Russian offensive operations to capture Avdiivka an "active defense” following the failure of the first Russian mechanized push to achieve significant tactical gains in early October 2023. Russian forces launched two subsequent large-scale pushes to capture Avdiivka since early October 2023 and continue a high tempo of attritional infantry assaults around the settlement. Russian officials’ characterization of these offensives as being part of an "active defense” are intentionally misleading. Ukrainian forces have never conducted offensive operations at scale in the Avdiivka area since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and Avdiivka has been a famously static Ukrainian defensive position since 2014. Russian leadership has nevertheless continued to falsely frame operations around Avdiivka as an ”active defense” likely to recontextualize the lack of any major Russian progress around Avdivka despite over two months of large-scale Russian attacks there.
ISW contradicts the DoD definition which includes 'limited offensive action' into active defense operations.
On January 4 2024 the NATO lobby organization Atlantic Council urged the Ukrainian army to copy the successful Russia's disposition.
- To defeat Putin in a long war, Ukraine must switch to active defense in 2024 - Atlantic Council, Jan 4 2024
Ukraine’s military strategy for 2024 should focus on holding the front line and ensuring continued control over the approximately 82% of the country that remains in Ukrainian hands. A strategic shift to active defense would play to Ukraine’s current strengths while buying valuable time to regroup and rearm ahead of what are likely to be more advantageous conditions in 2025.Crucially, a more defensive posture would allow Ukraine to exploit Moscow’s pressing need for victories. With the Russian army under huge political pressure to advance, Ukrainian commanders would have plenty of opportunities to steadily bleed out Putin’s invasion force, much as they are currently doing at Avdiivka.
A few days later the Ukrainian command claimed to have implemented the NATO order:
- Ukraine Ground Commander Says His Troops, Now on 'Active Defence', Can Still Surprise - US News, Jan 15 2024
In an interview late last week, Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi - a key figure in Kyiv's response to Russia's full-scale invasion - underlined the shifting realities on the battlefield that have tempered hopes of a major Ukrainian breakthrough.
...
"Our goals remain unchanged: holding our positions ... exhausting the enemy by inflicting maximum losses," Syrskyi, Ukraine's number two commander, told Reuters.
...
Ukrainian troops, for their part, are staging smaller counter-attacks in what Syrskyi described as "active defence": keeping the enemy on its toes by seeking opportunities to strike while they look to regain the initiative.Engagements on both sides are on a smaller scale to conserve ammunition and men, he added, suggesting Russia has also learned to react and stem losses.
"Offensives at the level of a battalion are a major rarity," said Syrskyi, adding that wider use of drones has forced the change in tactic.
Ukraine says it does not have enough ammunition to sustain the desired level of attacks, and has urged Western partners to do more to supply it.
One wonder how long it will take for ISW to characterize the new Ukrainian tactic as 'an effort to temper expectations about the Ukrainian military’s ability to achieve operationally significant objectives'.
The Russian army, which does not lack artillery ammunition, can use the new defensive disposition of the Ukrainian forces to make more gains.
These will likely come in the form of small pushes all along the combat line because NATO's electronic and satellite reconnaissance as well as drone attacks make larger concentration of forces nearly impossible.
The success will be slow until some larger parts of the Ukrainian defense line crumble under continues attacks and allow for a bigger push into the depth of the enemy lines.
Posted by b on January 17, 2024 at 12:42 UTC | Permalink
next page »Atlantic Council: "... ahead of what are likely to be more advantageous conditions in 2025."
Does anyone know what this is supposed to mean?
Posted by: trachys | Jan 17 2024 13:15 utc | 2
Let's cut losses . A bit like Bibi's kid going back to Florida ,after a stint in the call centre , not the FRONT . Z , has a palace there as well . The New Jerusalem , tropics , not cold New York . Anyway , ..... the 'old Ukraine ' , is a blow back that invests back in the PONZI, USA . War criminals and myth makers deserve those war bonds ,that bind. The war bonds , paid by others , whist we snort snow in Davos ... and fight over whores .
Posted by: George Plethon | Jan 17 2024 13:22 utc | 3
Posted by: trachys | Jan 17 2024 13:15 utc | 2
"... ahead of what are likely to be more advantageous conditions in 2025."
Does anyone know what this is supposed to mean ?
This will be a reference to the vast amounts of munitions that Western industry is supposed to be able to provide once it has fully ramped up if only the Ukrainians keep the faith and keep on fighting for another year or two.
Posted by: OnceWere | Jan 17 2024 13:26 utc | 4
re: Ukraine Copies Russia's 'Active Defense' Tactic
They're gonna try.
re: anon2020 starlink
Global Counterspace Capabilities Report ==> https://swfound.org/media/207567/swf_global_counterspace_capabilities_2023_v2.pdf
Posted by: too scents | Jan 17 2024 13:29 utc | 5
Syrsky keep using this word "active defense" but I do not think it means what he thinks it means :)
Remember the "counter offensive" thing : same ... and probably same ending too.
Posted by: Savonarole | Jan 17 2024 13:32 utc | 6
This will be a reference to the vast amounts of munitions that Western industry is supposed to be able to provide once it has fully ramped up if only the Ukrainians keep the faith and keep on fighting for another year or two.Posted by: OnceWere | Jan 17 2024 13:26 utc | 4
... and if they are able to develop some Matrix like ability to dodge hot metal ...
Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Jan 17 2024 13:33 utc | 7
If you look at Avdeevka specifically, the problem Russia has there is - they could probably keep creeping more to encircle it. But AFU has piled up most of the artillery it has left into the Avdeevka area. While the enemy has large artillery number, you probably won't order a general attack, which would create exposed extensions and flanks which it can hit. So they are balancing how to slowly tighten the envelope, while maintaining some sort of control over AFU supply line from the west of Avdeevka, while still managing to maintain an advantageous grinder for minimal costs. It is a compromise and balance.
When you look at other places like Krynky and Sinkovka, those are pretty successful grinders for Russia. Ukraine/west is forcefully maintaining a bridgehead at Krynky just so they can maintain morale, and the illusion that Ukraine's army would still be able to somehow march to Crimea. But the truth is much different for those who are sent to the bridgehead with little fire support.
Synkivka is an isolated place surrounded by Russian army from 3 sides. It forces the AFU to maintain to defend Synkivka, through the assumption that Russia would attack Kupyansk otherwise. However, to attack Kupyansk would mean to attack the urban area on the east bank of the Oskil river, and then crossing the river, and potentially crossing it also north of Kupyansk. So the situation at Synkivka, forcing AFU to defend it as an extension of their lines at Kupyansk benefits Russia and hinders the AFU.
It's possible there will be another broad front at some point with the purpose of stretching AFU and weakening other places like Avdeevka.
Anyway, when it comes to 'active defense', so far there are little indications of AFU actually doing it.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 17 2024 13:37 utc | 8
Atlantic Council: "... ahead of what are likely to be more advantageous conditions in 2025."
Does anyone know what this is supposed to mean?
Posted by: trachys | Jan 17 2024 13:15 utc | 2
It's called 'delusional thinking'.
This about covers the Ukraine war.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jnpE-hGNVj8 (now you can't leave)
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 17 2024 13:57 utc | 11
These will likely come in the form of small pushes all along the combat line because NATO's electronic and satellite reconnaissance as well as drone attacks make larger concentration of forces nearly impossible.
The success will be slow until some larger parts of the Ukrainian defense line crumble under continues attacks and allow for a bigger push into the depth of the enemy lines.
Posted by b on January 17, 2024 at 12:42 UTC | Permalink
That seems to be the current option after the less than needed results of the october test tube offensive.
That is the logic solution under one assumption.
That current full visibility of the battlefront, mostly synthetic aperture radars) cannot be countered because RF does not wish to escalate by striking western AEWCs and satellites.
But if all sources are known, maybe they can be shadowed, without hitting the source, just enough to create local blackouts...
Just saying that defense/offense is seldom a static thing and RF has often been quite proficient in both engineering and even fundamental physics.
Without AEWCs and satellites even AD needs to turn on its radars and counter battery and/or anti-radiation missiles become a thing again.
This is only speculation but looks like the only alternative to grinding away all AFU soldiers...
Posted by: Newbie | Jan 17 2024 14:01 utc | 12
There seems to be an uptick in Russian destruction of Ukrainian artillery. Even if western shell production ramps up, it appears unlikely that Ukraine can rebuild its artillery inventory. All the attrition indicators indicate an ultimate Russian victory. All the West can do is keep pumping out propaganda and hoping for a miracle.
Posted by: HH | Jan 17 2024 14:04 utc | 13
canuck@10...'delusional thinking'....you have obviously never lived under a British Jack Boot.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 17 2024 14:27 utc | 14
Interesting video: Ural Drone Hub
🇷🇺 We are expecting a new large drone bomber. The characteristics are still unknown, but it will probably be able to drop different types of ammunition, including quite large ones.
Chinese Companies Produce Flying Mortar Drones Capable of Carrying 120 mm Shells for russia, Defying Export Restrictions
Posted by: anon2020 | Jan 17 2024 14:30 utc | 15
@anon2020 | Jan 17 2024 14:30 utc | 15
---
China makes a good business. Respects all customers ==> https://www.aliexpress.com/w/wholesale-drone-amplifier.html
Posted by: too scents | Jan 17 2024 14:39 utc | 16
HH | Jan 17 2024 14:04 utc | 13
Possibly Penicillin full deployment. (probably spelled different but too lazy to look it up)
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 17 2024 14:39 utc | 17
Frederick Kagan (of the ISW) is a well known war hawk/ war monger / neocon.
Posted by: WMG | Jan 17 2024 14:42 utc | 18
Atlantic Council: "... ahead of what are likely to be more advantageous conditions in 2025."Does anyone know what this is supposed to mean?
Posted by: trachys | Jan 17 2024 13:15 utc | 2
It means they have been reduced to smoking their imaginary pet unicorn's own supply. They'll soon parrot other delusions to each other like, "Sad last days," "walls closing in," "a threat to democracy." Tragically it's terminal brain death, so now they can increase their think tank's fees
Posted by: titmouse | Jan 17 2024 14:55 utc | 19
So, essentially, this will go on as long as Ukranazistan can put people in uniform, or its Western masters can round up people for it to put in uniform. Ukranazistan is very short of artillery and air defences but it is not short of drones, and this is a drone war.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 17 2024 15:01 utc | 20
Russia's ~300B assets: they're already gone. Now. Out of the barn. Can't spend what you don't have, so why's the argument indubitably presented in terms of "frozen.? The West DID rip off Russia clearly and a good way back.
Be diplomatic as you wish, but this substantial theft should be put on Russia's books for restitution now, not when it thaws. What's the hold up? Issuing a demand for payment?
Posted by: Elmagnostic | Jan 17 2024 15:02 utc | 21
@trachys 2:
Russia will run out of everything and collapse in ten days then.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 17 2024 15:03 utc | 22
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 17 2024 15:01 utc | 20
the issue i see is the people. sure russia has the advantage over ukraine in that regard, but as you correctly say, "western leaders round up people to put in uniform" is an issue for russia, as that advantage is now gone. in terms of numbers.
and the west does not only have to put them in uniform, they can, do, and will in the future, continiously use some schmucks as simple terrorists to further kill civilians on the russian side, effectievly further lovering the menpower russia has in the future.
i think the russian federation is running their numbers, and once a critical point in civilian losses due to western values, aka terrorism, is reached, they will comply and return in kind.
so the west should be smarter and reign in their terrorism to not reach that escalation point, but all i can see is them further going down that road. like dogs with rabies.
...and we all know what has to be done to an animal that has rabies.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Jan 17 2024 15:13 utc | 23
Perhaps by 2025 western ”market incentives” to increase munitions production will have succeeded in doing more than making investors richer and more munitions will be available to give away? Unlikely more than token increases in production, but at least it kicks the can down the road past the elections.
Posted by: William Gruff | Jan 17 2024 15:28 utc | 25
Posted by: trachys | Jan 17 2024 13:15 utc | 2
"... ahead of what are likely to be more advantageous conditions in 2025."
Does anyone know what this is supposed to mean ?
This will be a reference to the vast amounts of munitions that Western industry is supposed to be able to provide once it has fully ramped up if only the Ukrainians keep the faith and keep on fighting for another year or two.
Posted by: OnceWere | Jan 17 2024 13:26 utc | 4
.
.
.
Ammunition production ramped up??
The question is within the EU with which raw materials and with which workers!!
Even in the USA, the ONLY factory that made detonators burned down.
Apart from raw materials for grenades etc... the prices per piece will use up the financial cushion very quickly.
While an armor-piercing grenade still cost around €8,400 in 2022, we are currently talking about over €14,000 just for production.
The WEST has massive problems with raw materials, not just steel, brass, copper but also chemical components!
So :
“Starting up” will probably do NOTHING for a long time
.
Germany's largest aluminum foundry will not reopen in 2024 and is bankrupt
Posted by: ossi | Jan 17 2024 15:28 utc | 26
“Atlantic Council: "... ahead of what are likely to be more advantageous conditions in 2025."
Does anyone know what this is supposed to mean?”
It’s another version of the “turning a corner” phrase made popular in Afghanistan.
Posted by: Fred777 | Jan 17 2024 15:32 utc | 27
The Ukrainian question divides the Europeans, Kiev counts its citizens: the events surrounding Ukraine
During the debate in the European Parliament about the need for further support for Ukraine, MEPs exchanged insults. Several MPs accused those in favor of further military aid of madness and called for a stop to arms deliveries.
Brussels has launched an audit of weapons supplied by member states to Ukraine as some of them allegedly failed to fulfill their obligations to supply weapons to Kiev, the Financial Times reports. This demand from Brussels has already sparked protests from some countries who refuse to provide complete data. The EU plans to publish the data before the EU summit on February 1st.
Important
The decision to conduct the audit follows German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's request to calculate and compare countries' military supplies to Kiev.
Fico and Orban
Western military aid to Ukraine is pointless and will only lead to more victims of the conflict, said Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico at a joint press conference with his Hungarian counterpart Viktor Orban. Fico is sure that in three years we will find that 50 billion euros have disappeared.
MEPs insulted each other in a debate about the need for further support for Ukraine. Irish MP Claire Daly called supporters of military aid to Ukraine “deranged lunatics” and suggested they were actually only helping defense company shareholders.
Her compatriot Mick Wallace agreed, arguing that the Eurocrats want to “support the American proxy war to harm Russia” and are therefore “spending millions of taxpayers’ money” and “helping to destroy Ukraine.”
CONCLUSION :
The EU is falling apart, slowly but surely
Posted by: ossi | Jan 17 2024 15:39 utc | 28
Posted by: ossi | Jan 17 2024 15:28 utc | 25
Macron claimed France has 'increased armament production'. He was referring to the Ceasar self propelled howitzers.
Will it make a noticeable difference or not? Who knows, but more likely no than yes.
Paris will probably be burning again soon enough as they can't keep up social security payments.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 17 2024 15:47 utc | 29
I'll just add a surmise I've made here before, but which is now more or less consistent w/ B's thesis here.
If we look at RF's primary adversary as US/NATO, Russia continues to fight in such locations and manners as to be prepared for a direct confrontation w/ NATO at any and all times.
If a major clash with NATO were to break out, RF far prefers to fight NATO in the South & East--close to RF's borders and logistics--rather than after a big arrow push to the Polish border, where they will be adjacent to NATO airspace & the current advantage of long supply lines shifts from their favor to NATO's.
For so long as the overall correlation of combat power between RF & NATO continues to move in RF's favor, they will have incentive to pursue the current economy-of-forces approach. We may see a major shift in scale & tempo if / when:
1. NATO attacks
2. NATO begins to seriously (in deed and not just in talk) ramp up its military-industrial plant. (This will take at least 2 years, more likely 5, and just possibly a post-industrial West can't really do this anymore at all).
3. A coalition of the willing breaks into Galicia or makes a run across Moldova to reinforce Odessa.
4. The UKR military simply collapses. (Likely followed by #3)
5. UKR falls back across the Dniepr to defensive positions along a short line from Odessa to Kiev.
Posted by: Paul Damascene | Jan 17 2024 15:49 utc | 30
Posted by: Paul Damascene | Jan 17 2024 15:49 utc | 30
Regarding a 'coalition-of-the-willing', my guess is a lot of Nato has already embedded in the AFU. There are more than enough reports that in some places foreign 'mercs' make up 50 % or more of the local AFU forces.
The coalition of the willing may actually already be in place and consumed there, propping up the AFU. If that is so, then it may be Nato has nothing left to send, excluding the possibility of full mobilization.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 17 2024 15:52 utc | 31
Interesting video: Ural Drone Hub🇷🇺 We are expecting a new large drone bomber. The characteristics are still unknown, but it will probably be able to drop different types of ammunition, including quite large ones.Chinese Companies Produce Flying Mortar Drones Capable of Carrying 120 mm Shells for russia, Defying Export RestrictionsPosted by: anon2020 | Jan 17 2024 14:30 utc | 15
So let's review once again the strategic problem with drones.
Which is that whatever advance is made by Russia is always quickly matched by the other side. Because the barrier to entry is low.
Large caliber artillery? Russia has a dozen big factories and is outproducing NATO. Ukraine itself produces zero
Air defense? Russia is vastly outproducing NATO. Ukraine itself produces zero
Heavy missiles? Russia is vastly outproducing NATO, plus it has Iran and NK on its side. Ukraine itself produces zero
Tanks and heavy armor? Same thing.
Hypersonics and other fancy doomsday tech? NATO doesn't even have it deployed at all.
But drones? You buy them on the civilian market, or you make them in distributed basements.
And they are highly effective, kill a lot of people and destroy a lot of equipment.
The result is that the front lines are static and advances are nearly impossible.
How is that going to be resolved? Well, as long as drones and the components to make drones continue to flow into Ukraine unimpeded, it will not be resolved. There will always be enough warm bodies to operate the drones from a safe distance. With some attrition, but it will be slow, slow, slow. Meanwhile NATO keeps escalating against strategic Russian assets, and not strategic as in "strategic for the Ukraine war", but "existential, vital for nuclear war strategic".
The solution? Stop the flow of drones and components needed to make drones into Ukraine.
Anyone else has any other ideas? I don't think so.
Then the question is about the means and the methods to be applied to cut Ukraine off in such a way.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 17 2024 15:54 utc | 32
Posted by: ossi | Jan 17 2024 15:28 utc | 26
I agree "increased supplies of munitions available come 2025" is not a particularly credible promise but I still guarantee it's what the author of the Atlantic Council piece had in mind when he referred to "more advantageous conditions in 2025".
Posted by: OnceWere | Jan 17 2024 15:56 utc | 33
Posted by: ossi | Jan 17 2024 15:28 utc | 25
Macron claimed France has 'increased armament production'. He was referring to the Ceasar self propelled howitzers.
Will it make a noticeable difference or not? Who knows, but more likely no than yes.
Paris will probably be burning again soon enough as they can't keep up social security payments.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 17 2024 15:47 utc | 29
.
.
.
Ask
How have France/Italy/Spain been making social contributions since around 2021?
Correct from the formed font “Corona Aid” for which Germany guarantees around 70%.
This font has a clause...It is not bound to a purpose!!
Since the Yellow Vests uprising, France has financed its entire social budget from these funds.
Which includes billions.
Spain/Italy are filling up their national budget month after month with these funds... resulting in bankruptcy!
Posted by: ossi | Jan 17 2024 15:59 utc | 34
France has 'increased armament production'.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 17 2024 15:47 utc | 29
---
French concern Vallourec closed the factories [Mannesmannröhren-Werke Düsseldorf] that make seamless steel tubing, essential for the production of gun barrels and other artillery tubes ==> https://eurometal.net/vallourec-closes-german-pipe-operations-for-good/
Mannesmann invented the process for making seamless tubing, an essential technology for modern industry.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mannesmann
Posted by: too scents | Jan 17 2024 16:00 utc | 35
Posted by: Leser | Jan 17 2024 15:55 utc | 34
To be only two years into a "forever war" and already suffering a very public and morale-sapping mobilization crisis does not bode well for the Ukrainian's ability to extend the war another two years let alone forever.
Posted by: OnceWere | Jan 17 2024 16:03 utc | 36
Thanks b. If I was seeking advice on military matters, the last people I'd be listening would be ISW's 'students' and The Atlantic's dorks, daydreamers and ideologues.
The term Active Defense means whatever the person who coined it wants it to mean. Ukraine's NATO addicts want it to mean "copying Russia's winning strategy and aďding improvements, one day. If or when we get the weaponry and equipment NATO promised us."
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jan 17 2024 16:05 utc | 37
For want of a nail the shoe was lost; For want of a shoe the horse was lost; For want of a horse the battle was lost; For the failure of battle the kingdom was lost— All for the want of a horse-shoe nail.
When you start walking the branches of the tree of dependencies for munitions production you find they spread wide across the economy. Building, staffing, and supplying a new artillery shell factory is not so simple as wanting it, or even printing money to pay for it. The entire US manufacturing base has been "optimized" (downsized) so much for decades that there is no idle or excess capacity anywhere that can be used to ramp up production. New productive capacity must be created in dozens of areas just to support one new munitions plant. Each of those facilities likewise needs a network of new suppliers, and so on.
This is no problem when an economy is doing a generalized industrial expansion (or when it is a planned economy), but the US economy has been outsourcing and downsizing for decades. All of the economic momentum is in the wrong direction. You cannot turn that on a dime, particularly not with a market economy.
The Ukrainians can wait for 2025, and the Russians might even let them, but that won't improve their position in the war.
Posted by: William Gruff | Jan 17 2024 16:13 utc | 38
The ratings agencies have a perfect record when it comes to predicting risk!
Exclusive: No default risk in event of Russian asset confiscation - Moody's, S&P sayMOSCOW, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Countries whose sovereign bonds were purchased by Russia would not be considered in default if Western governments decide to confiscate frozen Russian reserves worth $300 billion, credit rating agencies Moody's and S&P Global said.
U.S. and British officials are pushing to seize Moscow's assets immobilised in Belgium and other European countries. They are looking to secure wider Group of Seven (G7) backing for the move at talks next month close to the second anniversary of the launch of Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine.
continues ==> https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/no-default-risk-event-russian-asset-confiscation-moodys-sp-say-2024-01-17/
Posted by: too scents | Jan 17 2024 16:13 utc | 39
maybe we should also not forget that the armament industry in the us/uk/eu are may not be up to par, but they still have third-party countries that they can armtwist to produce ammunitions for the ukraine for. pakistan was one of them for example if i remember correctly. south-korea obviously, but they may have an issue with north-korean armamentproduction if they outsurce everything to the ukraine. japan lifting its arms-export embargo, producing and selling patriot missiles to the "us", and so on.
the west effectievly drags other countries into this conflict. at some point, they will force someone into a war-economy, as long as its not themself, just so that they provide to the killing of slavs.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Jan 17 2024 16:15 utc | 40
"If a major clash with NATO were to break out, RF far prefers to fight NATO in the South & East--close to RF's borders and logistics--rather than after a big arrow push to the Polish border, where they will be adjacent to NATO airspace & the current advantage of long supply lines shifts from their favor to NATO's."
Posted by: Paul Damascene | Jan 17 2024 15:49 utc | 30
Agreed.
RF need to take the fortified strongholds like Adeevka [sic] , Ugledar, Chasir Yar [sic] and a few others , which they will in 3-6 months , de-militarization is going along fine, and de Nazification should be working as well.
Excellent analysis thanks.
too scents | Jan 17 2024 16:00 utc | 37
There are two types of seamless tubing. Forged and drawn. Gun barrels (artillery) are virtually always forged. Better rifle barrels now are also cold forged.
Artillery barrels were usually hot forged to oversize then machined and the rifling cut.
Now I believe many are cold forged for the final sizing and rifling. Oversized bore machined then hammered onto a rifled mandrel cold.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 17 2024 16:27 utc | 42
#11-Peter ...you " nail" it..I think Vladimir Vladimirovich still remember his teens days of fights .. in Leningrad's streets..you noticed leader of the pack..big fat Lloyd is unusually quiet those days-since visit of Dr.Kinzhal on 01/03/24 in the glorious Kyiv.....
So, Western cope propagandists, where's that A-50?
As I said, zero evidence and three days now. It's like Gerasimov being dead, as was confidently asserted. The UkraiNATO forces need to make shit up because they're getting their proverbial asses handed to them.
Ukraine likes to announce lots of things. Choosing to believe them is a poor reflection on your reasoning abilities.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 17 2024 16:29 utc | 44
So, Western cope propagandists, where's that A-50?
As I said, zero evidence and three days now. It's like Gerasimov being dead, as was confidently asserted. The UkraiNATO forces need to make shit up because they're getting their proverbial asses handed to them.
Ukraine likes to announce lots of things. Choosing to believe them is a poor reflection on your reasoning abilities.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jan 17 2024 16:29 utc | 45
"When you start walking the branches of the tree of dependencies for munitions production you find they spread wide across the economy. Building, staffing, and supplying a new artillery shell factory is not so simple as wanting it, or even printing money to pay for it. The entire US manufacturing base has been "optimized" (downsized) so much for decades that there is no idle or excess capacity anywhere that can be used to ramp up production. New productive capacity must be created in dozens of areas just to support one new munitions plant. Each of those facilities likewise needs a network of new suppliers, and so on."
Posted by: William Gruff | Jan 17 2024 16:13 utc | 40
Yes, its not as easy as 'throwing money at a problem' as Western 'leaders' tend to do; great point.
"If a major clash with NATO were to break out, RF far prefers to fight NATO in the South & East--close to RF's borders and logistics--rather than after a big arrow push to the Polish border, where they will be adjacent to NATO airspace & the current advantage of long supply lines shifts from their favor to NATO's."Posted by: Paul Damascene | Jan 17 2024 15:49 utc | 30
That only works under the assumption that the rules of engagement will be respected, i.e. no strikes on mainland Russia.
That's a highly dubious assumption, already beginning to be violated in bits and pieces, and the discussion about how it should be abandoned altogether is now so open that the Estonian president publicly called for such strikes the other day.
Without that assumption the current line of contact is a huge disadvantage, not an advantage. And vice versa -- the line of contact being on the Polish border would be the best situation for Russia.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 17 2024 16:35 utc | 47
Paul Damascene | Jan 17 2024 15:49 utc | 30--
If NATO enters then so does Belarus, a dynamic to keep in mind, and then there's the further CSTO in reserve behind that. Plus, all those nations have increased their supporting industrial production thus boosting themselves and Russia. And what was agreed about the agreements between Russia and DPRK yesterday in that cryptic media report I provided?
ossi | Jan 17 2024 15:39 utc | 28 et al--
Your reports on weapons production are correct; NATO can't make enough nor will production be increased as that will decrease Profits. Furthermore, the sanctions regime and the energy war that supposedly targeted Russia has killed EU industry so it cannot provide anything as it did at the outset when it had full ammo larders that are now empty and cannot be refilled. The burden thus falls on the Outlaw US Empire to provide for all, but as mentioned above cannot because of Neoliberal doctrine.
IMO, coming offensive actions will be directly related to ability to defeat/defend against FPV drones while clearing lanes through minefields. The continuing attrition of Ukie artillery is also a plus. The deal with DPRK is probably not just for ammo but also for artillery so Russia can further increase its dominance in that area. But FPV drones are the main issue as Ukies are urging everyone to make or convert them at home. Russia's development of an FPV drone that can carry a 120mm mortar shell gives you an idea of the escalating power of those weapons and the need to defend against them.
Frederick Kagan (of the ISW) is a well known war hawk/ war monger / neocon.
Posted by: WMG | Jan 17 2024 14:42 utc | 18
Isn't Frederick Kagan Robert Kagan's brother and isn't Robert Kagan married to Victoria Nuland?
Posted by: S Brennan | Jan 17 2024 16:40 utc | 49
Posted by: Justpassinby | Jan 17 2024 16:15 utc | 42
"At some point, they will force someone into a war-economy, as long as its not themself, just so that they provide to the killing of slavs."
Arm-twisting countries like South Korea, & Japan to dip into their existing and pre-paid stocks of ammunition is one thing - it requires not much more than a sign-off from a thoroughly bought off local elite - but how exactly do you force them into a war economy ?
Posted by: OnceWere | Jan 17 2024 16:41 utc | 50
The IMF refused to restructure Ukraine's debts.Thus, Western “partners” do not intend to write off Kyiv’s debts and will demand the return of the money that is now allocated to support it. At the same time, only a part of Western assistance comes to Ukraine in the form of grants (they do not need to be returned), and the bulk of funds from the US, EU, other countries and organizations are loans that will have to be repaid sooner or later.
But the financing of Ukraine by the International Monetary Fund is a completely different story. For example, the Fund’s program, designed for 4 years, will bring Ukraine a little more than $15 billion, but for the same period Kyiv will have to pay $12 billion in interest to the IMF.
That is, the situation is leading to the point that the Cabinet of Ministers’ attempts to freeze payments on the external debt will mean a default, which, with a budget deficit of 40-50 billion dollars, will become final suicide for the state, and the territories will also have to pay.
However, the situation for Ukraine, which is completely dependent on Western money, could be even worse. According to insider information, one of the conditions for continuing financial assistance will be to expand the range of toxic and nuclear waste, which will be exported from Western countries (primarily France, but also the USA, Germany, Great Britain) and buried in Ukraine.
The French are particularly insistent on this because they can no longer use their old burial grounds in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. This means that Ukraine risks becoming one big burial ground.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/21225
Posted by: Down South | Jan 17 2024 16:41 utc | 51
Posted by: William Gruff | Jan 17 2024 16:13 utc | 39
.
.
And remember...it's capitalism!
What does it mean that no entrepreneur invests in the future without security!
Investors' profits and dividends must be right.
Russia doesn't have to make profits at all costs in production! That's why their criteria for weapons are jets etc.
1 Better than the opponent's corresponding weapon!
2 Maintenance-free as far as possible
3 Use under any environmental condition
.
Dividend shareholders profit play a subordinate role!
And :
Russia has ALL the raw materials in the world that it needs for production + workers
Advantage of a dictatorial central system!
Posted by: ossi | Jan 17 2024 16:42 utc | 52
Our source reports that Zelensky in Davos tried to negotiate according to the formula: freezing the conflict in exchange for investment. He offered a lot to everyone (land included).Zelensky understands that he has one chance to retain power when the war is “frozen” - this is a construction, industrial, infrastructure boom, when hundreds of billions of investments poured in will drown out the cries of “zrada” on the case of “stopping the war.”
Here he is bargaining. He publicly talks about war until victory, and behind the scenes he tries to bargain for an “investment portfolio and guarantees” to “drain the war” and implement the “Korean scenario.”
Shuttle diplomacy has already begun.
At the same time, all our sources say that Zelensky understands that the war is a dead end for him too, since the West will give 50% less money and weapons this year than last year, and in a year they will give us even 50% less. The Russians are only increasing their momentum at this time.
In the end, this will lead either to capitulation or to a military coup - the Maidan. There will be more casualties and destruction, and Zelensky will eventually be called the one who “prosr@l” everything (a hint at the Minsk agreements and even the Istanbul agreements, which were still beneficial to Kyiv).
https://t.me/legitimniy/17074
Posted by: Down South | Jan 17 2024 16:45 utc | 53
@Peter AU1 | Jan 17 2024 16:27 utc | 43
---
The Mannesmann process is forging.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rotary_piercing
Small arms barrels are deep hole drilled.
Stgw. 57 Manufacturing Processes ==> https://youtu.be/LenECaI_hoM?t=866
Posted by: too scents | Jan 17 2024 16:47 utc | 54
Posted by: Paul Damascene | Jan 17 2024 15:49 utc | 30
Certainly, Russia has conducted the entire SMO in such a way as to be as prepared as possible for a direct conflict with NATO. That having been said, however, the basic strategy is attritional warfare, because Russia can certainly knock out NATO bases within days of a direct NATO/Russia war beginning, and then NATO's supply lines go all the way back to the US. Defeating an attack from US/NATO will not be anything like the SMO, it will be full scale war in all its glory. No brother Slavs in Francy or Germany, Britain or the US.
If Russia does advance to the Polish border, NATO has an existential question to answer: can Europe survive open war with Russia? The answer is clearly 'no.' People will survive, assuming that such a conflict can be kept from going nuclear, but the power structure will not, the lifestyle and privileges of the elites will not. Open war with Russia is suicide for the EU elites.
Posted by: Honzo | Jan 17 2024 16:47 utc | 55
Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 17 2024 16:38 utc | 49
The EU has been trying to implement the so-called Eurobonds. That would give EU the unilateral right to issue bond/debt in the name of the EU members/subjects.
Before the war in Ukraine, it was related to investing in 'green technologies' and COVID recovery spending. Now it has shifted to 'war production'.
In the context of the most important underlying extra-EU export industries going bust or leaving, the Euro will probably accelerate its devaluation significantly. Whereas official inflation in the Goldilocks economics era was 2-3%, the new normal may be 5 - 7% (remember to multiply official inflation by 2-3x to get the actual everyday inflation).
To counter this development, they are bringing the so-called 'Disease X' to lock everyone at home again, to reduce spending and inflation. But that will also blow up the debt bubbles faster.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 17 2024 16:48 utc | 56
Edit, adding @too scents | Jan 17 2024 16:47 utc | 55
---
The Mannesmann process allowed the high pressure vessel for the Haber process [200 to 400 atmospheres and at temperatures ranging from 400° to 650° C] to be realized. Synthetic ammonia from the Haber process was used for the production of nitric acid, a precursor to the nitrates used in explosives.
Posted by: too scents | Jan 17 2024 16:52 utc | 57
And remember...it's capitalism!
What does it mean that no entrepreneur invests in the future without security!
Investors' profits and dividends must be right.
Russia doesn't have to make profits at all costs in production! That's why their criteria for weapons are jets etc.
1 Better than the opponent's corresponding weapon!
2 Maintenance-free as far as possible
3 Use under any environmental condition
.
Dividend shareholders profit play a subordinate role!
And :
Russia has ALL the raw materials in the world that it needs for production + workers
Advantage of a dictatorial central system!
It is ordered NOT to be asked, and in Russia those responsible in the industry in the administration organization are liable almost with their lives...well done but in any case with their careers!
I worked in Russia for about 12 years assembling and maintaining power plant turbines, and also or mainly in Ukraine.
In Yeltsin's time, Russia was a poor, very poor country because it drank more and sold to the West instead of governing.
Then came Gorbachev who let the states collapse because the Soviet Union was bankrupt. JUST because of that.
Since Putin, things have changed a lot, especially when it comes to officials in suffering positions.
These no longer exist!! In almost every position there are experts in the respective resource, unlike in Germany, for example, where an author is an economics minister and an agriculture minister who has never seen a cow.
Possibly explains the technological progress in Russia in recent years and the speed of construction/road houses etc.
Posted by: ossi | Jan 17 2024 16:53 utc | 58
Re privatized US and western weapons and ammo production. Being privatized, to set up new factories and production lines, they require long term purchase contracts.
Similar to gas contracts. Long term (30 year) contracts are very cheap as companies can calculate long term returns on infrastructure investment whereas spot prices are much higher as there is no guarantee of how much gas will be sold.
Like Scholz looking for new gas supplies but not willing to go into long term contracts with either Qatar or Canada where massive infrastructure building was required to supply the gas.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 17 2024 16:54 utc | 59
U.S. and British officials are pushing to seize Moscow's assets immobilised in Belgium and other European countries. They are looking to secure wider Group of Seven (G7) backing for the move at talks next month close to the second anniversary of the launch of Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine.
...
Posted by: too scents | Jan 17 2024 16:13 utc | 40
They'd better hope that Putin hasn't seen Goldfinger...
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jan 17 2024 17:03 utc | 60
too scents | Jan 17 2024 16:47 utc | 55
Cold forged rifle barrels begin with a short blank drilled slightly oversized then cold forged on a rifled mandrill. Only a few are done this way. The short blank reaching the desired length and diameter as it is forged onto the mandrel. Has to do with strengthening/hardening by cold working. Top quality sniper rifles and target rifles. It may only be in the US. There are videos showing the process.
On the drawn tube, I was thinking multiple launch rocket systems and so forth but the Russian/soviet ones have a single rifled groove to start the missile spinning before the fins kick in.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 17 2024 17:04 utc | 61
So the Russian plane hits were an own goal.....ouchies! I was kinda wondering how planes out over the Sea of Azov were within Ukie AD range.
Hodge put out quite the Podge yesterday. Just destroy Crimea, plain and simple, typical Zionist Samson Option. But as I have said from the beginning of the SloMo, the Russians don't really know what they are dealing with, English deceit is engraved in Irish DNA, "know them by their deeds" 800 years of subjugation will do that.
Anyone ever see two horned critters locked at the antlers, bound by their own chains, unable to free themselves, both facing death......we are there.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 17 2024 17:07 utc | 62
Hoarsewhisperer | Jan 17 2024 17:03 utc | 61
The Russians have done the maths and they hold the mortgage as in western assets in Russia.
The only loser will be the west. Russia itself will not suffer a loss.
Russia will just sit back and watch the west once again shoot itself in both knees.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 17 2024 17:09 utc | 63
"Active defence" only works if you can effectively defend yourself, and effectively attack when the opportunity presents itself.
With inferiority in ammo and guns, virtually no aeroplanes in the air, and a reduced availability of tanks and well-trained soldiers, the Ukraine can do neither. They are the equals of the Russians in drones, and possibly superior to them in nato-provided recon and electronic intelligence. In all the rest, they are vastly inferior.
The author of this article is fantasising about stuff he wishes were true. It's like reafding the "Guardian".
---
"Crucially, a more defensive posture would allow Ukraine to exploit Moscow’s pressing need for victories. With the Russian army under huge political pressure to advance, Ukrainian commanders would have plenty of opportunities to steadily bleed out Putin’s invasion force, much as they are currently doing at Avdiivka".
Poppycock. I bet three pints Putin wants nothing more than having this conflict go on until the US elections. Maximum damage for Joe & Co, and the Ukrainian army slowly cut to pieces at a minimum of loss in men and materiel. IN 2025 he will decide, at his ease, how and when to push the dagger in the Ukraine's exhausted belly.
Time is a luxury that the Russians have, and the Ukrainians don't.
Posted by: Augusto Pi | Jan 17 2024 17:10 utc | 64
Posted by: S Brennan | Jan 17 2024 16:40 utc | 50
yes i believe so. you have the relations right anyway. a nest of vipers.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Jan 17 2024 17:14 utc | 65
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Front #Summary for 17 Jan 2024 by 19:06⚡️🔹In #Kherson Direction, the flag of Russia has been raised in the centre of #Krynki, Our forces are making progress from the northeastern side to the market, clearing the cellars, breaking the enemy resistance. The AFU, on the other hand, continue the terrible operation "to see Krynki and die". Every day ours report the groans of the mortally wounded, thousands of abandoned bodies. It is a horrible picture. Local battles are also going on near #Peschanovka and #Podstepnoye, on the islands.
🔹In #Zaporozhye Direction, fighting is going on at the #Rabotin - #Verbovoye line. The AFU is strengthening their grouping: Our aviation is hitting their reserves. There are frequent explosions of FABs near #Orekhov. The AFU are responding by shelling peaceful #Tokmak with MLRS.
🔹In #SouthDonetsk Direction, the assault on the forest belts in the south of #Novomikhaylovka is difficult. There are mutual artillery strikes on supply routes, FPV drones are active in open positions. In #Georgiyevka and Pobeda, our Forces are slowly advancing.
🔹In #Donetsk Direction, the position of the AFU at #Stepovoye is deteriorating. There are signs that they will withdraw to #Berdychi. East of the Coke Plant, our forces knocked out the enemy from 7 streets of the dacha settlement. Unfortunately, an attempt by a Russian armoured convoy to cut into the rear of the AFU near #Vesyoloye was not successful. But aviation is active, new attacks by our army are to be expected.🔹In #Bakhmut Direction, our Solntsepeks are hitting AFU positions near #Kurdyumovka station. At #Kleshcheyevka ours pushed the enemy back another hundred meters. In the north, near #Bogdanovka, our troops regrouped and took a difficult stronghold. There are 2 km left before the capture of the key watershed, after which the AFU will either withdraw or fall into a semi-encirclement.
▪️ Northwards in the #Seversk sector, Russian troops are once again increasing their activity around the city. The nearest goal is to reach the western section of the #Lisichansk - #Serebryanka motorway. And on the southern flank near #Vesyoloye, our troops have come close to the flank of a large AFU position, the capture of which would deprive the village of tactical significance. In case of simultaneous pressure at #Belogorovka and #Vesyoloye, the AFU #Seversk garrison will also face a "pincer threat".🔹In #Svatovo Direction, in the #Serebryanskoye forest, the fighting is very difficult, ours are breaking through in spurts, given the overwhelming activity of AFU groups and drones. Kiev is throwing reserves here, claiming a multiple advantage of forces in favor of #Russia. In the #Kupyansk sector, our attempts to take #Sinkovka head-on have been abandoned, attention has shifted to the east of #Petropavlovka. Kharkovites report that columns of expensive foreign cars have moved from the city to the west. Kharkov's bigwigs are fleeing.
https://t.me/sitreports/21313
Posted by: Down South | Jan 17 2024 17:18 utc | 66
Posted by: OnceWere | Jan 17 2024 16:03 utc | 37
"To be only two years into a "forever war" and already suffering a very public and morale-sapping mobilization crisis does not bode well for the Ukrainian's ability to extend the war another two years let alone forever."
Ukraine at this point is just a crumbling concept amid chaos and desperation. The war is run by the Outlaw Empire (thanks Karlof1), using the resources of the Empire which also includes Ukro cannon fodder. There are still millions left in 404, countries that clemently took in Ukrainian refugees now talk about sending them back, and in any case not only is the Volkssturm being detached, they're officially also recruiting women. Even at a rate of 30k KIA per month, this forever war can go on for quite a bit longer.
And as unimperator says at | Jan 17 2024 15:52 utc | 31: who knows how many of those are mercs? The Empire can pay any price for mercs with both hands at the money printing press.
The other point you mention is the big conundrum much discussed here at MoA: aren't the Ukrainians aware of the situations? Won't they fight the draft officers? It's probably a mix of: the able-minded that could afford the travel are outside of 404, the remainers are somewhere between too fanatised and too demoralised to resist, a justified fear of the SBU probably keeps many from studying the latest insights on MoA and other enemy channels.
Posted by: Leser | Jan 17 2024 17:20 utc | 67
Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 17 2024 16:38 utc | 49
"..NATO can't make enough nor will production be increased as that will decrease Profits. Furthermore, the sanctions regime and the energy war that supposedly targeted Russia has killed EU industry.."
I beg to differ. It's true that peace time industry is closing down at alarming rates particularly in Germany, and indeed due mostly to escalating costs for energy. However, for war the calculation is different. A sordid cartoon is making the rounds among protesting German farmers: A farmer dragging the plow with a tank, yelling over to another farmer: "I've swapped the tractors for tanks - they're subsidised 100%!".
With a pile of freshly printed money and a hungry work force out of options, starting a bomb production line will be quick work.
Posted by: Leser | Jan 17 2024 17:20 utc | 68
On the subject of barrels. Smoothbore muskets/can were replace by rifled barrels for their greater accuracy. Now tank guns have gone back to smoothbore using finned projectiles for their greater velocity and with the finned projectiles are accurate to very long ranges. I believe the Soviets were the first to return to smoothbore.
Forgotten weapons - apparently he's a Ukraine flag waver now - but still very good on guns of the past. His video on the four bore stopping rifles used for large and dangerous game. Even when rifled barrels came out, many still used the smooth bore as those guns were for very short range shooting and the smoothbore had greater velocity and I think less recoil.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 17 2024 17:22 utc | 69
In the knee ?
Hugely in the trust of the super rich who stash their money in Switzerland... especially in dollars.
Swiss banks will collapse if they withdraw their dollars or change to other currencies.
EVERY rich person in every state will be afraid.. if you are a thorn in the side of the USA, your money will be gone or frozen..
Posted by: Ossi | Jan 17 2024 17:29 utc | 70
Augusto [email protected] does not exist.....unforseen consequences on the other hand.....
If it's Guinness, I'll take your bet....Putin is not that evil, then again, he's not English.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 17 2024 17:30 utc | 71
I believe the Soviets were the first to return to smoothbore.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 17 2024 17:22 utc | 70
---
Gerald Bull, a Canadian, designed smooth bore for South Africa. He was murdered for his work for Iraq.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_Bull
Posted by: too scents | Jan 17 2024 17:32 utc | 72
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 17 2024 17:09 utc | 64
(Confiscating Ru currency reserves)
The West is run by Right Wing Cranks. They're so busy falling in Love with their own bs that they usually forget something.
Xymphora summed up AmeriKKKan strategic panic a few years ago:
"Let's do SOMETHING, even if it's stupid!"
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jan 17 2024 17:37 utc | 73
With a pile of freshly printed money and a hungry work force out of options, starting a bomb production line will be quick work.
Posted by: Leser | Jan 17 2024 17:20 utc | 69
.
.
.
In addition to energy and manpower, this still still requires raw materials!
From steel to copper, titanium, ceramics to chemistry!
The last large aluminum foundry in Germany quietly closed its doors on January 1st, 2024 without informing employees.
Just an example.
Figures about bankruptcies are no longer published.
To France
How many of your nuclear power plants run on Russian fuel rods?
That's right 38!
Posted by: Ossi | Jan 17 2024 17:39 utc | 74
thanks b...
thanks some of the regular posters who also offer insightful commentary... a special prize goes to sean the leprechaun.. the hodge meets the podge post with the example of the animals antlers locked - yes that is where we are now...
my offering.. alex krainer from today..
Posted by: james | Jan 17 2024 17:41 utc | 75
I believe the Soviets were the first to return to smoothbore.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 17 2024 17:22 utc | 70
.
.
Russia has always used smoothbores, even the T64 had smoothbores.
How do I know...I served on it for 3 years
Posted by: ossi | Jan 17 2024 17:44 utc | 76
ossi | Jan 17 2024 16:42 utc | 53--
Russia's "system" isn't "dictatorial." Russia's MIC is a Public Utility in that it's state-owned and thus avoids the need to produce profit. When looked at from the cost basis alone, Russia's MIC is 5-6X more productive than the Outlaw US Empire's for-profit Neoliberal "system." But what really needs to be compared is the overall political-economies of the two, which most importantly includes the scientific R&D and educational sectors of the economy where Russia has long outclassed the USA since Soviet times. Add that to the mix and the difference becomes closer to 8-10X more efficient. The one time in US History when its MIC did well was during WW2 when it was rather close to a public utility that was driven by military considerations from 1939-1943 when those in the Board Room began planning for the post-war for-profit environment.
too scents | Jan 17 2024 17:32 utc | 73
Interesting on the boring out of existing rifled barrels and testing with sabot rounds, though I think sabot was in use in WWII but fired through rifled barrels. Germans actualy built a very long range range gun into a hillside. Smoothbore with blot together lengths. Video of the site and remaining infrastructure can be found. Forgotten what it was aimed at, most likely Briton, but the aim could not be adjusted or if anything only minutely.
Have been going through your previous link and that looks to be for the process of roll forging which is usually used for larger diameter heavy wall tube.
Everything I have seen on barrel forging, both hot and cold is hammer forging.
All this stuff, the technical aspects and developments over the years I have always found interesting.
Those great guns of post 1900 Germany. Cant remember if it was Krupp or the company named in your first link, but original footage of those being manufactured can also be found.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 17 2024 17:50 utc | 78
Peter @ 17:22
Because of improved powder these days, a slow rifled barrel in small arms increases velocity and a fast rifled barrel increases accuracy and velocity.
Posted by: bisfugged | Jan 17 2024 18:00 utc | 79
ossi @ 17:29
Russia is looking at over $300 billion in western assets that will be taken, tit for tat.
Also, many financial experts including EU and Wall St. sources have stated that there is NOTHING in this world that will destroy the world reserve currency faster or more horribly than taking a major sovereign's foreign exchange assets!
Posted by: bisfugged | Jan 17 2024 18:04 utc | 80
Estonian MEP: 800,000 Ukrainian “cowards” fled to the EU to avoid military service
Estonian MEP Jaak Madison called on Tuesday in the plenary session of the European Parliament for the extradition to Kiev of Ukrainian men who fled the country to avoid conscription. The politician spoke of around 800,000 Ukrainian “cowards” whom the EU must help return to their homeland in order to “win the war”.
Posted by: ossi | Jan 17 2024 18:06 utc | 81
Now tank guns have gone back to smoothbore using finned projectiles for their greater velocity and with the finned projectiles are accurate to very long ranges. I believe the Soviets were the first to return to smoothbore.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 17 2024 17:22 utc | 70
The switch was made on the T-62 and the Rapira 100mm antitank guns, IIRC largely driven by a quest for greater HEAT performance which spin stabilization disrupts, and mantained on the following models. Accuracy at long range supposedly suffered but remained acceptable at expected battle ranges; eventually fire control computers solved that so everyone went for it but the brits. There are also other issues but this is the short version as far as I remember.
Posted by: Satepestage | Jan 17 2024 18:07 utc | 82
>> Chinese Companies Produce Flying Mortar Drones Capable of Carrying 120 mm Shells for russia, Defying Export Restrictions
Posted by: anon2020 | Jan 17 2024 14:30 utc | 15
Not sure what NATO is trying to achieve by taunting the bear and the dragon at the same time.
China, in any case, would miss a terrific opportunity to drain NATO's armories by supporting Russia. Every rocket NATO ships to Ukraine can't be fired at China later.
If China or Russia wanted to up the pressure by a notch or two, all they'd have to do is give some drones to the Houthis, help them sink a few NATO war ships. Sorry, orchestrate a few unfortunate "smoking accidents".
Posted by: Marvin | Jan 17 2024 18:08 utc | 83
ossi | Jan 17 2024 17:44 utc | 77
T-34 and the heavy. I forget the heavies name now but I know it came out with two turrets and two guns. he larger one had a six inch gun and massive turret. I forget what gun the other had.
There is a British ex military type has a good video Channel.
Has a run of good videos on Ukraine WWII nazis in Canada and UK. He put out a video of one of those tanks that parked itself on a cross roads and held up the Germans for several days. Nothing the Germans had could penetrate the armour. The Germans brought up some 88's and when they were position the Russians blew them away. They eventually went down though. Perhaps run out of ammunition and by then the tracks and running gear would have been damaged.
Theres the story of a tiger going through and entire convoy of allied armor and trucks on the western front but there is also the case of a Russian heavy, the lighter gunned version going through a German armored grouping in the same way. The lighter gunned version. There is a movie on it, no doubt dramatized but based on the historical records. Stalin tank I think was their nick name.
Re the 64s - I have no idea when the soviets brought in smoothbore cannon but have assumed T-36 era were rifled.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 17 2024 18:09 utc | 84
Satepestage | Jan 17 2024 18:07 utc | 83
Thanks. Off memory the 62 was Russian designed and manufactured though only made in small numbers and the 64 Ukraine designed and manufactured and produced in much larger numbers.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 17 2024 18:14 utc | 85
Karlof1@78 ossi@75
We must never forget the twin nightmares of ESG and DEI...
Case in point, FAA just came out that they are going to have constant oversight on Boeing's return of the 737 Max 9 to the skies are repairing the door catches and bolts.
This after their DEI hiring of those with SERIOUS MENTAL AND PHYSICAL DISABILITIES!!
Posted by: bisfugged | Jan 17 2024 18:20 utc | 86
Leser | Jan 17 2024 17:20 utc | 69--
Thanks for your reply. The problem of military production capacity's been discussed for well over a year now and was a primary component of NATO propaganda from the outset that was actually projection of its own situation onto Russia--running out of missiles, artillery ammo, and everything else. It's now been essentially two years into the conflict and there's no change on the horizon that can be seen in NATOstan. Political cartoons are easy to produce. A recent stat was published showing Germany's electricity consumption was down to the level of 1976 when it was West Germany. Where're Germany and other EU nations going to find the energy to produce the arms NATO needs just to rearm itself besides supplying Ukraine? And then there're the raw materials required to produce all that which came from Russia and Ukraine and now don't. Former African colonies aren't going to help because of NATO's abetting the Gaza Genocide.
Again, NATO's lack of strategic planning is very evident, and that goes back to 2008 when it was decided to bring Ukraine and Georgia into NATO as the former president of the Czech Republic admitted a few days ago. NATO should have been planning/preparing for a major conflict with Russia from that point onward but clearly did nothing, for which I'm sure Russia's thankful.
Summary of this thread:
Ukraine is finished.
The EU is finished.
The USA has become bogged down worldwide and is practically no longer in a position to maintain its previous dominance.
Russia has finally realised that the USA's worst enemies are actually its best friends - and Putin's beloved "partners" are the most poisonous of all snakes...
Danke an ossi,unimp.,honzo und alle anderen
Posted by: Oberbayer | Jan 17 2024 18:26 utc | 88
T-34 and the heavy. I forget the heavies name now but I know it came out with two turrets and two guns. he larger one had a six inch gun and massive turret. I forget what gun the other had.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 17 2024 18:09 utc | 85
There were a number of multiple turrets tank design in the interwar period but the closest that matches your description would be the T-100, though it was armed with a 76mm and a 45mm gun. It was not approved for mass production but sent to finnish front in 1939, supposedly performing badly. Normal KV heavy tanks sometimes caused local problems in 1941, as did the B1 in 1940. The T-62 was not as succesful as the T-55 but still the numbers were substantia.
Posted by: Satepestage | Jan 17 2024 18:27 utc | 89
"...The politician spoke of around 800,000 Ukrainian “cowards” whom the EU must help return to their homeland in order to “win the war”..." ossi@82
Estonian fascists aren't very bright!
It isn't hard to imagine what would happen to the House of Cards in Kiev if 100,000 let alone 800,000, angry young men returned to Ukraine under compulsion. It's not the cowards who are abroad, it is, in many cases, the men who don't like being ruled by Azov and don't believe in persecuting their Russian neighbours.
Anyway, ossi, you are an ornament to the website-keep on posting!
Posted by: bevin | Jan 17 2024 18:34 utc | 90
@trachys | Jan 17 2024 13:15 utc | 2
Atlantic Council: "... ahead of what are likely to be more advantageous conditions in 2025."Does anyone know what this is supposed to mean?
The Atlantic Council wants the United States to attack Russia. But it can only happen after Biden is re-elected.
Bild says May 2025. See:
New War Drums Chill Europe with Renewed "Putin Invasion" Fears - Simplicius the Thinker, January 16, 2024
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jan 17 2024 18:37 utc | 91
bevin | Jan 17 2024 18:34 utc | 91--
My thinking was if the Estonian nut feels so strongly that Russia must be fought, then he ought to be enlisting as a mercenary.
Leser @ 33
This war is now officially set up as a forever war, with the Europeans to provide the blood transfusions for it.
Excellent way to lose the hybrid part of the war. Just saw that Germany is officially in recession and has the worst economy of all the developed nations. Farmers are rising up across Europe, the Poles are resorting to jailing the opposition, France with the recent FM has become a banana republic, parliamentarian in Slovakia said all Slavs will have to unite and raze Europe. And, the Atlanticists want to give it time?
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 17 2024 18:44 utc | 94
“Estonian MEP Jaak Madison”
Someone get Jaak a rifle and bus fare to Avdiivka.
Posted by: Fred777 | Jan 17 2024 18:46 utc | 95
https://t.me/ZandVchannel/96487
❗️🇺🇸🏴☠️🇬🇧🇪🇺🇺🇦 Secret NATO missions have arrived in UkraineAccording to sources of "Go and see", new NATO missions from the Baltic States have arrived in Ukraine. They analyze the course of the fighting and collect statistics.
"These missions existed before. They are mainly engaged in exchanging experience and preparing tactics for alleged military provocations against Russia," the channel's interlocutor notes.
According to him, NATO officers are primarily interested in projectile consumption, losses, breakthrough tactics and other practical aspects of modern warfare.
"These people are also involved in the control of weapons transferred to Ukraine, so they have even greater access than the Ukrainian officers themselves," the source said.
NATO countries are studying a variety of combat trends to rebuild their own military doctrines. First of all, we are talking about Poland, the Baltic States and the Nordic countries.
🇷🇺 PS: In general, a new bold target has appeared for Russian intelligence and aviation.
https://t.me/ZandVchannel/96516
‼️BREAKING‼️🇷🇺💥🇫🇷🏴☠️🇺🇦 On the evening of 16 January 2024, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation delivered a precise strike at a temporary deployment area of foreign mercenaries, most of whom were citizens of France, near Kharkov.
As a result of the strike, the building, where the mercenaries were deployed, was completely destroyed. More than 60 militants were eliminated, more than 20 were transported to medical facilities.
Posted by: anon2020 | Jan 17 2024 18:50 utc | 96
Posted by: james | Jan 17 2024 17:41 utc | 76
Excellent points and link, james. Thanks!
Posted by: juliania | Jan 17 2024 18:53 utc | 97
Are you thinking of the T-35, a veritable land batleship?
Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 17 2024 18:39 utc | 93
It took them a while to figure out that if a tank is going to fight other tanks it should have one big gun to do it. When a military picks up a weapon, they do it with some particular role in mind. Hitler conceptually framed the idea that the role of a tank was to take on other tanks. That caused the Germans to build plus sized tanks that ultimately ended up carrying the very lethal 88mm cannon.
It was, apparently, a good decision but not a great one. The German tanks were very lethal when taking on the allies, not very numerous because they took a long time to build and cost a lot. Both the United States and Russia favored numbers over kill power, and ultimately won the war of course. But along the way lost a lot of tanks and their crews.
Posted by: Jmaas | Jan 17 2024 18:55 utc | 98
ossi@82
The politician spoke of around 800,000 Ukrainian “cowards” whom the EU must help return to their homeland in order to “win the war”
This isn't going to happen, it's just more Clown World circus music. It would involve force against non violent non armed people, no police force in Europe, I don't even think Poland, will sign on for this ugliness, their unions will guarantee this is stillborn. Not that I think cops don't love ugliness and any opportunity for brutality, just not filmed wall to wall on cell phones, screaming wives, screaming children, and instantly out on social media. There's absolutely nothing in it for the EU cops and cops don't do anything that doesn't benefit them.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jan 17 2024 18:57 utc | 99
Karlofi@94
If he feels that strongly he ought to fight for free-leave the money for mercenaries without his, no doubt, sincere belief in fascism.
Aurelien has an excellent substack piece today:
"The Wrong Stuff.
Don't even think about rebuilding western militaries."
Posted by: bevin | Jan 17 2024 18:58 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Looks like a Starlink antenna is used for comms.
https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/28658
Posted by: anon2020 | Jan 17 2024 12:51 utc | 1