At Naked Capitalism Yves Smith is taking another recommendable look at the situation in and around Palestine:
Israel Shifts to Targeted Escalation, With Justification for Entry into Lebanon One Likely Aim
After the assassination of Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy head of Hamas’ political wing, in Beirut the situation at the border will probably escalate:
Alastair Crooke reported that Israel residents of in the north who had evacuated or otherwise fled demanded that they not be able to see Lebanese forces from the border. They told by the government that they would be able to return by the end of January, which seems a tall order (I did find corroboration in a print source but due to the state of search, cannot find it again). Given that Lebanon would never agreed to effectively cede territory to improve the mental health of these nearby Israeli neighbors, that commitment would imply an invasion, which is how Crooke read it.
Scott Ritter appears to have seen similar demands, but depicted them as mere threat display, that Israel would not dare attempt an incursion because it was pretty sure to lose. As Ritter had early described, Israel lost its last two war games against Hamas and Hezbollah, even with the US joining the war. Ritter has also described how much better Hezbollah has gotten since 2006, when it beat Israel, while Israel’s forces, per Ritter, are third rate. And Hezbollah has a tunnel network that makes Hamas’ look like a poor cousin.
…
Aside from the successful Beirut attack amounting to a real blow and a morale booster for Israel, it also seems to be setting up the spin that a widening of the war in Lebanon would be the result of Hezbollah escalation, as opposed to as Israel initiative (hoping for a response to provocation as cover). For example, see the DW headline: Hezbollah’s revenge for Beirut killing: Will it lead to war?One wonders why Israel seems to be committing itself to an invasion of Lebanon. Is this strictly domestically driven, that it is politically unacceptable for Israel to have abandoned border towns? That Israel is worried about waning US support, witness the pressure to dial down (at least optically) Israel’s campaign in Gaza? Aljazeera articulates one widespread view, that Netanyahu is strongly motivated to keep the war at a high pitch, although he probably has some rabid allies:
…
Yes, Netanyahoo has some reasons to keep the war running by escalating it. But it is probably not because he fears an investigation into how it came to the war, as Aljazeerah implies. Such investigations can be fudged. But Netanyahoo has a higher (to him) personal interest.
A piece published two days ago by the Washington Post catches the essence of his motivation:
Splits are increasingly visible within the emergency war cabinet in which Netanyahu shares power with his political rival, former IDF chief of staff Benny Gantz, among others. Gantz and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant have declined to appear with Netanyahu at some recent news conferences. Both have expressed more openness to the ideas pushed by Biden for a postwar government in Gaza that relies on a restored Palestinian Authority, a notion that Netanyahu and the more extremist members of his coalition have dismissed.
Gantz, whose popularity has soared, has said that politics and investigations into the failures of Oct. 7 should wait until the war eases. As some troops withdraw from Gaza, political observers are watching closely for any sign that he might be ready to make a move.
Gantz could trigger new elections by persuading five members of the coalition, many of whom have criticized Netanyahu, to join a no-confidence vote.
“The minute Gantz felt like he could leave the war cabinet, that snowball would start rolling,” Talshir said. “That is beginning to feel more possible as the situation in Gaza is stabilizing.”
“Of course,” she added, “if we have a second front with Hezbollah, it would all change again.”
Netanyahoo wants to stay in power. At any price. As soon as he is out of office the prosecutors will relaunch the dormant bribe cases against him and his wive. Both are likely to end up in jail. Given that alternative, a war in Lebanon, even one which Israel is likely to lose, may well look like a good option. But the best case for such a war would involve some U.S. promise to have his back in that war and to come to his help should the adventure go as bad as it is likely to be become.
Will Biden promise such support? I doubt it.
Today Hizbullah's Secretary General Hassan Nasralla has given another speech.
He emphasized the successes of the campaign which Hizbullah started on October 8 2023, a day after Hamas' latest revolt against Israel, along the Lebanese border with Palestine.
- On the longer than 100 kilometer front all Israeli military bases have been targeted, as well as its settlements, with a total of 670 operations.
- 48 border posts have been targeted 495 times as well as 50 posts behind the borderline.
- 17 settlements, where Israeli soldiers went into hiding, have also been attacked.
- Technical surveillance equipment with a cost above a $100 million has been destroyed.
- The resistance published 90 videos and photos that showed the destruction of Israeli tanks and other vehicles.
- Israeli media is silent about the resistance successes.
- The eight Israeli hospitals nearest to the border have taken in some 2,000 wounded soldiers.
- 230-300,000 settlers have fled from northern Israel.
- 120,000 Israeli soldiers have to stay in the north to secure the border.
Nasrallah also empathized that the various resistance members can bring advantages to their respected homelands (Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen).
- Since 1948 it was Israel that displaced Lebanese people and built security zones on Lebanese land. Today the settlers are fleeing and Israel is building a security belt on its side of the border.
- Should the situation in Lebanon escalate it will have a chance to regain all its land that Israel still occupies.
- In Iraq the resistance now has a chance to again kick the U.S. out. The U.S. claims to be there to fight ISIS but ISIS is a U.S. product.
- In Yemen the resistance is winning international applause and respect for its Ansar Islam (Houthi) government.
- All resistance countries are in danger of Israeli attacks should the resistance in Gaza be defeated. Helping Gaza is thereby in the interest of all those countries.
Nasrallah closed his speech with the typical greetings to the martyrs and their families.
All together Nasrallah was in a good mood. He seems to think that Israel is currently deterred from attacking Lebanon.
But even if it were to attack Lebanon Hizbullah would use it as an opportunity to better its position.