Palestine Open Thread 2024-024
Only for news & views directly related to the war in Palestine.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Posted by b on January 21, 2024 at 14:03 UTC | Permalink
next page »Netanyahu doesn't want Izzzy hostages back unless they are dead (silenced).
https://thegrayzone.com/2024/01/18/israeli-army-gassed-auschwitz-soldier/
Posted by: librul | Jan 21 2024 14:43 utc | 2
Barflies,
Gimme your version of how the Levant looks like in 15 months
Posted by: Exile | Jan 21 2024 15:05 utc | 3
From the Zio horses mouth.
" Israeli writer Avi Lipkin: Israel’s borders will extend ‘from Lebanon to Saudi Arabia’ "
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/WERJ_xXhaeQ
Posted by: Moonie | Jan 21 2024 15:58 utc | 5
Whatever happened to Israel's idea of using seawater to flood the tunnels under Gaza and drown or flush out Hamas?
Posted by: Mark Mosby | Jan 21 2024 14:41 utc | 2
It may have been found to be impossible to execute. It would be a very major oversight if the branches of the network affected by flooding/gas/enemy infiltration could not be isolated by controlled demolitions and similar measures and all of it could be flooded as it happened to the Chicago tunnels. Alternatively it might have been vetoed on political grounds in order not to risk hostages. But I would bet on the former.
Posted by: Satepestage | Jan 21 2024 15:58 utc | 6
I forget who it was here at the bar that felt we should consider October 2nd to be the proper start of the war. Btw thanks for the transcript link b.
In the interview with Hudson:
"HAIPHONG:It really is mind blowing how quickly all of these developments have, in many senses, spiraled out of control. Even if we can look at this in years, but even in just the last few months, of course, with October 7th being another breaking point.
HUDSON:I think you should say October 2nd. That was the destruction of the attempt to destroy the mosque. It’s October 2nd that triggered all of this. It was the Israeli attack on the mosque that was intended to say, We are going to destroy the Islamic presence in Palestine so that it can be entirely non-Islamic. That was the declaration of war. So don’t be suckered into the New York Times saying it’s all October 7th."
There was careful and lengthy planning of this war. During that time perhaps they did adapt to events and circumstances. I wonder when exactly they picked the name of the operation.
Posted by: David G Horsman | Jan 21 2024 16:25 utc | 7
Re: Mark Mosby | Jan 21 2024 14:41 utc | 2
The plan to flood the Hamas tunnels was transparently idiotic to anyone who could read a topographical map. Which evidently did not include the psychopathic morons in the zionist criminal government.
They probably halted it when farmers showed them all that salt water gushing into the Negev farmland. Generational-term damage done to some of the area already, I'll bet.
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Jan 21 2024 16:30 utc | 8
Posted by: David G Horsman | Jan 21 2024 16:25 utc | 10
I forget who it was here at the bar that felt we should consider October 2nd to be the proper start of the war.
I think it was Exile.
Posted by: Forest | Jan 21 2024 16:34 utc | 9
"BREAKING| The Ministry of Health: Israel committed 17 massacres in the last 24 hours, killing 178 civilians and wounding 293 others.
This brings the death toll since October 7 to 25,105 and the injuries to 62681."
Adding the 7-8,000 missing, this means dead, missing and injured is around 95,000.
75% of Gaza trees have been uprooted and a lot of agricultural land bulldozed by Israel.
They have stolen artefacts from the museum too. Every university has been destroyed.
Enough medical aid is not going in and is the wrong kind.
Posted by: Pq | Jan 21 2024 17:21 utc | 10
Two relevant anthems:
"Warrior" Palestine National Anthem
https://youtube.com/watch?v=l73Jxa0fAFg
"The Rising Generation" A pan-Arabic anthem
https://youtube.com/watch?v=K9WumDC2b3U
Posted by: Browser | Jan 21 2024 17:42 utc | 11
After Izzzy intelligence obtained Hamas' detailed plan for Oct 7th
they analyzed it.
Important for analysis would be continuous monitoring of whether the reality on the ground - Hamas' current activities -
matched the detailed plans.
So that is what they did. Unit 8200 "the Central Collection Unit of the Intelligence Corps"
made the decision to stand-down and cease the real-time monitoring of the tactical
communication of Hamas operatives on their radios.
Wait! Did I really mean "stand-down and cease monitoring"? They instead increased their diligence in
monitoring. Right?
Nope. Unit 8200 claims that everyone up and down the military/intelligence chain of command approved
the ceasing of monitoring.
So what is going on here?
It couldn't be a false-flag in progress as there are thousands of IDF troops surrounding the Gaza border,
a false-flag could never work. Oh, there **were** thousands of troops until just before Oct 7th when they
withdrew for temporary duty in the West Bank.
But a false-flag still wouldn't work. Hamas could be dispelled by the quick arrival of support troops.
Oh no, the troops didn't arrive in force for hours. What gives?
Still, a false-flag doesn't make sense unless there is a purpose. What good would the death of Izzzy civlians do?
Oh, it created blood lust which was then harnessed to "justify" the cleansing of Gaza and subsequently, the West Bank.
But, there would be no blood lust if the casualties were light. The Hannibal Directive wasn't implemented
for that purpose was it? They didn't implement the Hannibal Directive for alterior motives?
Or did they?
Posted by: librul | Jan 21 2024 17:50 utc | 12
bevin, 21st Jan at about 15h GMT (...where the government has been a joke for the past three years now (and, of course, counting...)
Rather, since 2010, when the children took over, David suckling-pig Cameron and Boy We-shall-not-be-blown-off-course George. Arguably the ineradicable rot set in in those committed Thatcher-Blair years, but those feel almost professional and grown-up against what has followed since 2010.
Posted by: petra | Jan 21 2024 19:03 utc | 14
To all:
The endless long and extremely verbose off topic discussions are destroying this place. Please stop and take it elsewhere.
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jan 21 2024 18:54 utc | 19
I agree. It has become so bad that it is slowly turning MoA into a waste of time.
It would be nice if commenters would try to exercise self-discipline and keep to the topic, so that a discussion is possible.
That would also show respect for b, who specifically asks to stay on topic, contribute facts and not to attack other commenters.
The least that can be done is not enter into (endless, often repetitive) off-topic debates.
All those who really care about MoA as a space of focused, open debate should endeavor to prevent the forum becoming irrelevant.
Posted by: JB | Jan 21 2024 19:08 utc | 15
bevin, Funny thing is the current lot in the Elysee and Palais Bourbon do seem determined to push back however feebly against the Washington blight w.r.t. Red Sea / Horn /Gulf in a way that Sakoszy and the nonentity who succeeded him were unable to do.
Posted by: petra | Jan 21 2024 19:19 utc | 16
https://w.ynet.co.il/news/100days?externalurl=true%D7%A8
For those who have not yet seen it, this is the minute by minute breakdown of events on Oct 7, just the first few hours.
Complete and utter chaos. The IOF is exposed as gutless, disorganized, casualty averse tik tok army with an over reliance on technology just as Scott Ritter had outlined on his substack describing Oct 7 as a successful military raid by Hamas.
A Hannibal along with reference to military censorship is already called in by 8:44 am.
If you have trouble following it I recommend this breakdown video from the Anti Empire project. They go through it in detail starting at 15 minutes. When I'm depressed about all the bad news, I always look forward to Jon Elmer and here he is with Justin Podur.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhxtZ4GShAU Gaza War Sit Rep Day 104: Oct 7 Hannibal
@Exile and others interested in right of return
The Return Plan 2023 by Dr Salman Abu Sitta who has worked on this for a long time.
I have not seen it posted on MoA.
https://www.plands.org/en/articles-speeches/speeches/2023/return-plan-2023
On the same website under articles and speeches, I recommend the speech: A Palestinian address to Balfour.
I find it puzzling why so few on MoA seem interested in hearing directly from Palestinian voices.
Posted by: pq | Jan 21 2024 19:29 utc | 17
P lands is a powerful website packed with data about real estate illegally taken. One sample a page with dozens ( hundreds ?) of maps ….
https://www.plands.org/en/maps-atlases
Posted by: Exile | Jan 21 2024 19:41 utc | 18
- Hamas has released a document : Why We Carried Out Al-Aqsa Flood Operation
A summary and PDF can be found in Palestine Chronicle:
- For those interested, as I am, in the The Arab states' relationship to the Palestine question, I link a very good paper in the Middle East Review of International Affairs (Issue #4/January 1998) entitled
Israel, the Palestinian Authority, and the Arab States
By Barry Rubin
Even though it is "old", it covers a period that is very important for a deeper understanding of the attitude of Arab states to the Palestinian question and in particular the effect of the PLO acceptance of a two-state solution within 1967 borders.
Link: https://ciaotest.cc.columbia.edu/olj/meria/meria198_rubin.html
Posted by: JB | Jan 21 2024 20:00 utc | 19
Pls. read and sign the declaration.
This must stop
Posted by: Paul from Norway | Jan 21 2024 20:25 utc | 20
Why would Barry Rubin in Columbia U. New York City the slightest insight what Arabs think ?
Better to have linked Edward Said from Columbia :
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ghfqZgugpdo&pp=ygUPZWR3YXJkIHNhaWQgYmJj
Posted by: Exile | Jan 21 2024 20:26 utc | 21
Posted by: librul | Jan 21 2024 17:50 utc | 12
Nicely done. Very compact, very clear. Something worthy of being cut and pasted to other sites.
Posted by: Honzo | Jan 21 2024 20:30 utc | 22
Hamas War Aims start on page 16
https://www.palestinechronicle.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/PDF.pdf
Posted by: Exile | Jan 21 2024 20:37 utc | 23
Posted by: pq | Jan 21 2024 19:29 utc | 17
=================
Does this time line exist somewhere in English?
Posted by: Jane | Jan 21 2024 20:57 utc | 24
Posted by: JB | Jan 21 2024 20:00 utc | 19
Thanks for the Hamas doc. Summarizes what Electronic Intifada, Ritter and Hamas spokespersons have been saying all along. And the work by Max Blumenthal in debunking the outlandish allegations made by the Hasbara machine to deflect from genocide.
I don't think much of the Rubin paper though. Perhaps a small part of the analysis may be accurate but let's remember who Barry Rubin is: a Zionist "terrorism" expert who flipped Israel's documented history of terror on its head by seeking to portray the PLO as "terrorists"
This is a review of his book on the PLO. https://www.jstor.org/stable/42942157
Israel along with US Zionists are the architects of the "terrorism narrative" as a deliberate strategy of Empire to delegitimize any form or Arab or Muslim resistance to USUKIS plans.
in the latter part of the 20th century they sought to accuse the PLO and then gradually shifted it with 9/11 to all Arabs and Muslims, but especially those in resource rich areas.
Any Arab state that comes out too loudly in support of Palestine liberation will be accused of "supporting terrorism".
For too long, the narratives of what is going on with Palestine and its relation to the Arab world have been hijacked by Zionists who pretend to speak on their behalf. That includes those in sheep's clothing, the Holy Trinity of Finklestein, Mearsheimer and Sachs, who are everywhere, all the time claiming to want the best for Palestine.
The purpose of Mearsheimer's AIPAC book is to reinforce the need for AIPAC because "terrorism".
This is so specious considering that the entire history of Israel and before 1948 the Zionist movement is one of terrorism: Stern Gang, Irgun and Haganah: which morphed into the genocidal IDF.
Let's remember Folke Bernadotte who presented the most favourable plan for Palestinians the Bernadotte Plan, based on the right of return, was assassinated by the Stern Gang. One of the commanders in charge was Yitzhak Shamir. The worst terrorists in Israel get to be Prime Minister.
https://zionism-israel.com/dic/Bernadotte_Plan.htm
https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/470499?ln=ru
USUKIS are the last ones to be preaching to us about terrorism. USUKIS = ISIS and all its flavours.
In the Dialogue Works youtube channel Larry Johnson today mentions how Balochistan is definitely a CIA region.
Balochistan Baloneystan Nationalism is a front for the CIA to attack Pakistan, Iran.
He says Kurdistan is a Mossad place while the other places in Syria are MI6 and CIA.
For those who don't know, Kurdistan has always been an Israeli project aimed at taking those parts of Iraq, Syria, even a little bit of Iran, Turkey that it wants for "Greater Israel".
Press TV has details of the Mossad base attacked by Iran in Kurdistan.
Posted by: pq | Jan 21 2024 21:00 utc | 25
Does this time line exist somewhere in English?
Posted by: Jane | Jan 21 2024 20:57 utc | 24
If it existed in English, the world might get to know that Israel has been lying!!!
We CAN'T have an English version!!!
We need to get headaches trying to figure out the garbled messages in machine translation!!!
Apparently the author is Ronan Bergman who also writes for NYT. NYT!!!
That's why I recommend the youtube video analysis. I thought they did a great job.
Posted by: pq | Jan 21 2024 21:05 utc | 26
Perhaps if the USA would have followed the ideas of one of the American founders it would not have the Israel problem as of now-here George Washington's Farewell Address (1796?):
"..... a passionate attachment of one nation for another produces a variety of evils. Sympathy for the favorite nation, facilitating the illusion of an imaginary common interest in cases where no real common interest exists and infusing into one the enmities of the other, betrays the former into a participation in the quarrels and wars of the latter, without adequate inducement or justification. It leads also to concessions to the favorite nation of privileges denied to others, which is apt doubly to injure the nation making the concessions, by unnecessarily parting with what ought to have been retained and by exciting jealousy, ill will,and a disposition to retaliate in the parties from whom equal privileges are withheld. "(1)
1. https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-CDOC-106sdoc21/pdf/GPO-CDOC-106sdoc21.pdf
If you don't receive Victor Grossman's Berlin Bulletin you are missing a lot. The veteran German-American communist sends out regular emails to subscribers. This one ends with Palestine.
"...But after five weeks of Israel’s bombing of Gaza, the director-general of the World Health Organization already reported that children were being killed at an average rate of six per hour…Nowhere and no one is safe.” In December Biden voiced worries about “indiscriminate bombing”. There are rumors he urges Netanyahu to avoid hurting civilians. But despite any misgivings or admonishments, the USA has been sending, among many other items, thousands of 2000-pound bombs to Israel - described in the NYT as “one of the most destructive munitions in Western military arsenals…a weapon that unleashes a blast wave and metal fragments thousands of feet in every direction.” By mid-January 60,834 Palestinians were listed as injured in Gaza, an estimated 24,100 had been killed, about 70% of them children, with an uncounted number buried under rubble.” I wonder how many of them had taken part in the October 7 raid.
"About a hundred courageous journalists have been killed in Gaza, mostly purposefully, by well-aimed Israeli bullets or missiles. Also buried are numerous talented or young hopeful artists, musicians, poets.I do not know if Khaled Juma survived. After an earlier bombing of Gaza, in 2014, he wrote this very short poem, which I will close with.
"OH RASCAL CHILDREN OF GAZA
Oh rascal children of Gaza,
You who constantly disturbed me with your screams under my window,
You who filled every morning with rush and chaos,
You who broke my vase and stole the lonely flower on my balcony,
Come back –
And scream as you want,
And break all the vases,
Steal all the flowers,
Come back,
Just come back….."
Posted by: bevin | Jan 21 2024 21:32 utc | 28
Exile @ 3
The Levant in a snapshot of April, 2025 will see a barren, partly glassed landscape devoid of people and "roped off" by the IAEA for radioactive monitoring.
Posted by: bisfugged | Jan 21 2024 21:52 utc | 29
Paul in Norway
I find it off such personalities would launch a petition on change.org rather than as a signed statement in a major newspaper. Change seems to me as a platform which stops numbers of signatories at will.
Posted by: Minaa | Jan 21 2024 22:10 utc | 30
Posted by: JB | Jan 21 2024 19:08 utc | 15
Totally support JB and SRB
I have vented about this crapp before, but will reiterate-.
I personally do not give a flying fxxx whether the ZOG protocols are for real, forged or outright fake because the facts are that Palestinians in Gaza are being murdered by high explosives (USA/UK origin) and bullets while their relatives in the West Bank are being ethnically cleansed in what seems to be an accelerating effort by the imported colonist people – with tacit support (by obvious official silence) from the “civilised” nations of this world. However it is portrayed by Israel and its supporters the facts indicate GENOCIDE.
I am also a long- term cigarette user and agree that it is a really bad practice – has not done me any favours-. While the cultural significance of smoking various plant products is probably of great interest to some anthropologists and warrants informed debate somewhere else, it is absolutely irrelevant to the ongoing wars in the ME and Ukraine which are the main themes of this blog at present. Having to wade through all this OT blather in an attempt to glean real information of current interest to me is devaluing my regard for MOA.
Bar flies and fleas, trolls and anyone else with a personal axe to grind, please go somewhere else to rant about your obsessions.
Posted by: Barrel Brown | Jan 21 2024 22:25 utc | 32
Chris Hedges agrees with us:
The Four Horsemen of Gaza’s Apocalypse
Joe Biden relies on advisors who view the world through the prism of the West’s civilizing mission to the “lesser breeds” of the earth to formulate his policies towards Israel and the Middle East.
CHRIS HEDGES
"Joe Biden’s inner circle of strategists for the Middle East — Antony Blinken, Jake Sullivan and Brett McGurk — have little understanding of the Muslim world and a deep animus towards Islamic resistance movements. They see Europe, the United States and Israel as involved in a clash of civilizations between the enlightened West and a barbaric Middle East. They believe that violence can bend Palestinians and other Arabs to their will. They champion the overwhelming firepower of the U.S. and Israeli military as the key to regional stability — an illusion that fuels the flames of regional war and perpetuates the genocide in Gaza.
"In short, these four men are grossly incompetent. They join the club of other clueless leaders, such as those who waltzed into the suicidal slaughter of World War One, waded into the quagmire of Vietnam or who orchestrated the series of recent military debacles in Iraq, Libya, Syria and Ukraine. They are endowed with the presumptive power vested in the Executive Branch to bypass Congress, to provide weapons to Israel and carry out military strikes in Yemen and Iraq. This inner circle of true believers dismiss the more nuanced and informed counsels in the State Department and the intelligence communities, who view the refusal of the Biden administration to pressure Israel to halt the ongoing genocide as ill-advised and dangerous..."
Posted by: bevin | Jan 21 2024 22:43 utc | 33
I used to have a facebook page and while there I made friends with many Palestinians, one of them being the brave and thoughtful young man who wrote the following. I have had it in my files for many years - probably got it during the months of the Great March of Return. 2018? Some here may appreciate reading a story from the horse's mouth, so to speak. It appears exactly as written:
A story that simulates our lives in wars
and for me, I lived this life exactly..
Written via Kahled Tabasha ..
There was a beautiful woman her name Sally.
Sally used to wake up at dawn to hear the sound of birds singing and watching the sunrise via her window despite the fear that prevails in the region.
Sally stands by the window of her kitchen, washing her dishes, cups and spoons finely, escaping from the sounds of warplanes, raids and bombs. She hears the sound of water pouring out of the water faucet. Her mind and heart remember pictures of children who were eaten by shrapnel, her tears falling on her cheek that mingle with the water on her utensils.
Sally looks at the sky and sees smoke far away, buildings burning. Suddenly, she hears a sound of an ambulance speeding and a medical staff inside, a car speeding loaded with injureds to save them from death, street radios telling names of martyrs and wounded people and sally hearing the names of the martyrs ..
The phone rings, Sally runs breathlessly. Her sister calls:
Sally: Hello.
Her sister Reem, Hello, are you fine?
Sally, yes we do. How are you my sister?
Reem: The shelling is next to us and I am very afraid for my children
Sally: So, what are you waiting for! Bring the children and come to our house. Our house is safe.
Reem: well, I will
Sally, wait you, be careful ( God protect you )
Sally watches her son Ahmad and her two daughters Jenin and Jaffa sleep deeply and in tiredness , after long days of war without sleeping even for an hour . The windows did not close all nights, fearing from an explosions then breaking the glass, they are sleeping in the middle of house to stay in safe! Danger is existing even if they are sleeping under the ground because the madness of weapons that used by criminals.
Sally lights the candles and hears to the radio with tragic news and tries to listen to politicians to see when the war will end. Sally tells to herself What is the benefit of this and people are dying? It is really discusting.
Ahmed wakes up and catch his phone and reading the messages? Tanks are penetrating! This house was bombed!! This person died!! Oh my God! When will this continue? Will we die? My mother / mother, did you hear the news? Sally (mother of Ahmed) Yes and do not say any word more, go and try to shower. Ahmed: My mother, water there is no water.
Her sister arrives with her two young children, their eyes are confused, their voices are intermittent, their breaths are trembling, terrified by death rockets, entering the house.
Jenin wakes up, looks at her sister Jaffa next to her, afraid, Jenin Prays, God, let Jaffa alive and it's not a problem if I die, but Jaffa has to stay alive because she still kid.
Jenin phone rings
Jenin: hello
Aunt of Jenin: hello, Jenin, the bombing here is strong, what about you?
Jenin: our home is safe come here my aunt
Aunt: immediately
The house of Sally in the center of Gaza City overlooking the sea, Sally's sister living in the north in Beit Lahia, while the aunt of Jenin in the south in Qarara, the houses of Reem and the aunt were under direct attack via F16, F35, drones and tanks .
Sally's house was shaken by the sounds of shells via warships.
Jenin goes to her mother and hug her strongly, Jenin says to her mother my aunt on her way to our house because her house is not safe then her mother replying ( We will receive everyone in our house because our house for all and let us to pray for her to arrive in safe
Sami, is the husband of Sally who died many years ago..
Finally, the aunt arrives and her face is full of afraid and tiredness
The aunt talks to Sally / I do not know how I got here. Hospitals are full of wounded and martyrs and people are migrating to UNRWA schools. What will the Red Cross do? They will do notjing. Where Arabs, where the world? where human rights ? and Where Ban Kimon is ?
Sally answers: Let us to stay strong and God with us, we will not be able to do anything now.
Gaza Strip is the most densely populated area in the world. In addition to that, No water / no electricity / no travel / and no work etc.
The last war on Gaza was the summer in the Ramadan's month
Everyone in the house .. Heat kills them at home ... Sally goes to the kitchen with her sister to prepare food because they were fasting. Aunt: I want a cup of coffee to keep awake.
Everyone was waiting for the food at 7pm to eat after fasting 15 hours.The girls were making a dish of sweet to forget the bombings and the sound of warplanes and Ahmed was joking with his aunt before get food.
At 6:40 PM, Sally and her sister put food on the table. Sally calls the girls and Ahmed to come to eat.
At seven o'clock the family began to eat.
Suddenly, the F16 warplanes are flying over the house of Sally and shell the house of Sally.
Their blood mixed with food and drink. No votes for the family disappeared laughter. There is no safe house and the windows are broken and the smoke is rising from the house and their bodies have become parts ..Legs in the corners heads burned ..
A rocket surprised everybody, the food was with the cry of life, the cry was not complete, Reem and Sally could not survive with their children, the speed of the rocket was faster than everything.
URGENT On television, the world looks at the windows of Sally, after the birds fled from its edges, but Sally could not see her house from the window of the world, and she did not see the news.
Sally's house was not as safe as everyone was told, everyone fled from death, to meet another death, and Sally could not protect anyone.
Ambulance crews and civil defense rushed to the house of Sally, they walking between the rubble and the bodies which became such pieces and parts , their shoes are stained with blood and Sally under the window of the kitchen embraces Jaffa, the window has no glass, Jaffa did not die because the God accepted they prayers of Jenin, her eyes dazed stunned .. All died except Jaffa.
Written by Khaled Tabasha
______________ I do not know if Khaled is alive or dead now. I do know the situation of Palestinians is now many times worse than even in that terrible, heartbreaking story. At the time, Khaled gave permission to print it out and hand it out. Leave a copy in the dentist's office waiting room next time you go?
Posted by: DuchessAndBob | Jan 21 2024 22:55 utc | 34
pq | Jan 21 2024 21:05 utc | 26
Pq try putting it into yandex browser and then tapping translate. Seems to be a decent translation.
Posted by: Fitz | Jan 21 2024 22:57 utc | 35
non-normal normalisation non-paper
euractiv, 'A new normal': ECB's Lagarde and Germany's Lindner forecast deep shifts in global economy
Speaking at a panel event on the final day of the World Economic Forum in Davos on Friday (19 January), Lagarde noted that many countries—including those in the EU—have begun to prioritise "security" over "efficiency" in their trade relations, which could cause "costs to be higher in the long term".The European Central Bank (ECB) head added that the anticipated "non-normality" comes despite a softening labour market, falling LOL! excess savings, and declining inflation causing the
global economyinternational trade to undergo a process of "normalisation" in 2023.In addition to increasing LOL! geopolitical fragmentation [regional FTAs], Lindner highlighted advances in
artificial intelligencecomputer programming and rising levels of public debt as key challenges which can only be addressed with appropriate "structural reforms" [austerity?], especially in labour markets and corporate [eNtITY] taxation rates.
[...]
"I think there are some permanent changes, a development towards a new normal," [European Policy Centre analyst Philippe] Lausberg told Euractiv. "We are seeing more fragmentation, great power [G7] politics that is being translated into theeconomic spherepunitive trade sanctions, and LOL! less free trade."However, Maria Demertzis, a Senior Fellow at Bruegel [!] think tank, suggested that talk of a "new normal" is "perhaps too definitive".
"I think there are shifts, but nobody knows where we're going," she told Euractiv. "I think the relevance of
AIcomputer programming is indisputable, but where exactly this is taking us in terms of productivity [profit] or in terms of security threats or in terms of cybersecurity, nobody really knows," Demertzis said.
[...]
punitive trade sanctions UPDATE!
EUobserver, EU to blacklist people for pro-Hamas 'incitement'
The EU blacklisted six Middle East financiers on Friday (19 January) on grounds they supported the Hamas militant group, which rules Gaza and which attacked Israel on 7 October. Three of them were Lebanese—Nabil Chouman, Khaled Chouman, and Rida ali Khamis—shedding light on Hamas' international network.
[...]
The EU listed him not just for financing Hamas, but also because "he has frequently made public statements on behalf of the organisation"."All funds and economic resources belonging to, owned, held or controlled by any natural or legal person, group, eNTitY or body as listed in Annex I the list of six names shall be
frozenconfiscated," the EU said.
Posted by: sln2002 | Jan 21 2024 23:02 utc | 36
South Africa - Genocide charge
Indonesia - Inhumane policies and practices
Mexico and Chile - Crimes against civilians
Yemen - economic sanction & blockage against Occupational entity and backers, bonus - possible "boots on ground" quagmire for UK/US
Renewed attacks on overstaying occupational forces in Iraq - ongoing mental and combat fatigue for occupiers
Lebanon front - Holding operation resulting in ongoing economic, social & military stress on Occupational regime.
Posted by: Suresh | Jan 21 2024 23:18 utc | 37
Posted by: bevin | Jan 21 2024 21:32 utc | 28
Yes. I look myself in the mirror in the morning and I vomit. What has become of my Country? Alexis de Tocqueville summed it up. America is great because America is good. If America ever ceases to be good, she will no longer be great.
We are now the epitome of evil. Allied with the Talmudic demons of Israel. The entire world is against us. We will suffer.
Posted by: RLTW | Jan 21 2024 23:48 utc | 38
I am also a long- term cigarette user and agree that it is a really bad practice – has not done me any favours-. . .
Bar flies and fleas, trolls and anyone else with a personal axe to grind, please go somewhere else to rant about your obsessions.
Posted by: Barrel Brown | Jan 21 2024 22:25 utc | 32
================
Try rolling your own (:-)
Posted by: Jane | Jan 21 2024 23:51 utc | 39
"In short, these four men . . . are endowed with the presumptive power vested in the Executive Branch to bypass Congress, to provide weapons to Israel and carry out military strikes in Yemen and Iraq.. . .
Posted by: bevin | Jan 21 2024 22:43 utc | 33
===================
"Endowed" by whom?
There is no such "presumptive power" to bypass Congress.
Let's just be honest.
What we have "running" the USA is a junta.
Posted by: Jane | Jan 21 2024 23:56 utc | 40
Posted by: Exile | Jan 21 2024 15:05 utc | 3Barflies,
Gimme your version of how the Levant looks like in 15 months
Some sort of Middle East Mandate (Council, Alliance etc) comprised of all (or all major) regional nations, with Russian and Chinese backing, will impose order on Palestine, primarily by establishing a Palestinian State which they recognize and pledge to defend against all aggression.
They may or may not be able to establish clear territorial parameters at first but clearly a State comprising the West Bank in one area and the Gaza strip far away in another is not acceptable. They will probably start with 1967 territories or some such to accord with earlier legal precedents.
However, the first move will be to impose a cease-fire on the status quo. Doing just this will establish a new Authority in the region, no longer BS UN-hobbled phony machinations.
If Israel refuses to submit to the authority of the Mandate it will not be recognized as a legal State by them. If they act with aggression against any Palestinian citizens they will be met with force and punitive measures.
A Palestinian State can only come about via the agency of a body superior to the Palestinian and Israeli people. The creation of a Palestinian State is long overdue and for too long (and bizarrely) the Israelis have been allowed to take the lead on whether or not it should or can exist. This must and will change. Then the entire calculus will change accordingly, including the US's ability dominate decision-making in the region.
A major bone of contention will be control of the oil and gas near Gaza.
This will require superseding or bypassing the UN which has failed in its mission and responsibilities, something Putin will be loth to do, being a legalistic stickler type.
Something like that.
"All funds and economic resources belonging to, owned, held or controlled by any natural or legal person, group, eNTitY or body as listed in Annex I the list of six names shall be frozen confiscated," the EU said.
Posted by: sln2002 | Jan 21 2024 23:02 utc | 36
=============
Outrageous!
This is how the EU's masters plan to "top up" failing coffers.
Basically the EU, too, is a racket run by a junta.
Well, it can only speed up the euro's long-predicted flop or maybe fizzle.
Posted by: Jane | Jan 22 2024 0:01 utc | 42
A major bone of contention will be control of the oil and gas near [read "underneath"] Gaza [and other parts of historic Palestine].
This will require superseding or bypassing the UN which has failed in its mission and responsibilities, something Putin will be loth to do, being a legalistic stickler type.. . .
Posted by: Scorpion | Jan 21 2024 23:58 utc | 41
===================
At least the UN produced a hard-hitting, clearly worded report that can serve as a road map of sorts for "repossession" of stolen mineral assets.
Linked in previous thread; here it is again. Well worth a read.
https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/gdsapp2019d1_en.pdf
Posted by: Jane | Jan 22 2024 0:08 utc | 43
Posted by: Jane | Jan 21 2024 23:51 utc | 39
Thank you. I used to roll my own when younger and more broke, and agree that "rolly's" are less harmful. But I got lazy and reverted to "tailor made" ciggies. I think I'll go back to rolling.
Anyway smoking nicotine in any guise is a really bad idea, and despite being admittedly hypocritical here reckon it should be strongly discouraged.
Regards
Posted by: Barrel Brown | Jan 22 2024 0:16 utc | 44
Posted by: Jane | Jan 22 2024 0:08 utc | 43
Unless and until there is a Palestinian State with forceful diplomatic and security backing, there is no 'possession' of anything, let alone 'repossession'.
The UN has been used to empower Israel to move into the area and prevent any clear Palestinian State from being formed following the regional muddle following the fall of the Ottoman Empire after WWI and the brief British Mandate, during which many of the State lines still in place today were drawn. This was in the days when undeveloped nations far behind the advances of the Industrial Revolution which has by now swept the world (or nearly all of it) and were generally out of their depth with such changes and power differentials.
That power differential no longer exists. Time for a Reset.
Posted by: Barrel Brown | Jan 22 2024 0:16 utc | 44
Don't know all the brands, but traditionally rolling tobacco (like Drum or Samson) has hardly any additives. You can smoke all day and not feel much from them but commercial smokes: one pack and you can feel the whole body, skin and blood is dirty somehow. Make that switch! The Dutch are chain smokers but many of them still have shiny, soft complexions (though not all!).
Posted by: Scorpion | Jan 22 2024 0:17 utc | 45
=================
Sorry you seem to have missed my point.
Sorry I don't actually need the history lesson.
Posted by: Jane | Jan 22 2024 0:32 utc | 47
"Endowed" by whom?
There is no such "presumptive power" to bypass Congress.
Let's just be honest.
What we have "running" the USA is a junta.
Posted by: Jane | Jan 21 2024 23:56 utc | 40
Endowed by the Deep State, the Banksters, the security apparatus, the 'Donor Class,' the mis-education system, the captive media and judicial impunity.
It is not unique to the United States, but our Junta is simply the public face of the class dictatorship of the bourgeoisie. There is no Strongman, no tiny clique of generals ruling in their own interest. Our generals, and quartet in question, simply implement the orders of their masters.
Posted by: Honzo | Jan 22 2024 0:37 utc | 48
Posted by: Jane | Jan 22 2024 0:32 utc | 47Posted by: Scorpion | Jan 22 2024 0:17 utc | 45
Sorry you seem to have missed my point.
Fair enough. But you also seemed to miss mine. Entirely.
Fair enough. But you also seemed to miss mine. Entirely.
Posted by: Scorpion | Jan 22 2024 1:11 utc | 49
===============
No, I did not. I said "At least."
Try reading the report.
Posted by: Jane | Jan 22 2024 1:14 utc | 50
Jane | Jan 21 2024 23:56 utc | 40
You do realise that what you atrribute to me is, in fact, a quotation from Chris Hedges?
I wouldn't want anyone to think that his are my views.
Posted by: bevin | Jan 22 2024 1:26 utc | 51
canuck | Jan 21 2024 21:14 utc | 27
He was, as no doubt you know, talking about revolutionary France. On the face of it very dissimilar. But, in fact, there are clear parallels- France was, or had been, pursuing very radical policies and American fans, who saw themselves as fellow revolutionaries, not only applauded but attempted to emulate the French, if only in their opposition to the British.
Posted by: bevin | Jan 22 2024 1:34 utc | 52
You do realise that what you atrribute to me is, in fact, a quotation from Chris Hedges?
I wouldn't want anyone to think that his are my views.
Posted by: bevin | Jan 22 2024 1:26 utc | 51
===========
No, I don't "realize" that at all, because I didn't do it.
What is wrong with you guys tonight?
Slow news day, I guess.
Good night.
Posted by: Jane | Jan 22 2024 1:58 utc | 53
My take on "presumptive power" is that it is the power that somebody self assumes to have. If they act on it and get away with it, then they do have it. Not as an abstract idea, but in the real world we actually live in. It happens. Abraham Lincoln presumed to ignore the right of habeas corpus and was able to lock people up without any input from the judiciary. Thus it became a power that he had because he could.
Posted by: Jmaas | Jan 22 2024 3:40 utc | 54
Digression warning... Jane, I can sit in front of a screen and chain a pack of 25 (Canadia here;) in a couple of hours one handed, but a 50g pack of Players Navy Cut will last > 2 weeks BECAUSE IT TAKES TWO HANDS TO ROLL.
Otherwise I prefer ZiGZag Blues ... ;-)
Fubar
Posted by: Fubar El Haq | Jan 22 2024 3:54 utc | 55
Posted by: Exile | Jan 21 2024 15:05 utc | 3Barflies,
Gimme your version of how the Levant looks like in 15 months
I don't see the US backing down under Biden. It will be mad dog diplomacy for the next year. The US will try to bully everyone into a cease fire on Israel's terms. Gaza will be mostly emptied and the West Bank will be under heavy siege. Plenty of bombing in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, but avoidance of all-out war with Iran.
Whichever Republican replaces Biden will try to calm tensions, with mixed success. Ultimately the US needs Israel as a base of operations to control energy in the region.
Israel will lose population and become still more dependent on the US. One of the primary goals of the US will be to gain complete control of Israel's nuclear weapons. However, Israel may gain its advantage back in biological weapons research.
Posted by: ChrisB | Jan 22 2024 5:47 utc | 56
I just don't see another 10+ months of genocide waiting for the US (s)elections to be over....like it will make a Red/Blue geo-political difference.
I also don't see the Ukraine situation holding out until the next US president for resolution.
I also don't see many global economies not crashing until after the US (s)elections are complete.
We are just waiting for one of the global/regional powder kegs to go off and take the rest with it which is quite likely, IMO, to happen before next fall.......the West is no longer in control of the narrative, including timing.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 22 2024 6:16 utc | 57
Re: 15momth outlook ?
If Al-Qassem can continue to raid outside the Gaza Fence from their underground fortress until Late March/Early April 2024 - it’s very likely that the IDF ground forces will suffer total breakdown.
Then all bets are off.
Posted by: Exile | Jan 22 2024 6:59 utc | 58
Emek Shaveh
@EmekShaveh
1. In a post by the Director of the Israel Antiquities Authority showing his deputy was sent to examine antiquities in Gaza, the director celebrated the "discovery" of a collection with a "wow".
Please see the tweet through the link below:
https://twitter.com/EmekShaveh/status/1749111785481728283
Posted by: Menz | Jan 22 2024 8:49 utc | 59
Emek Shaveh
@EmekShaveh
·
Dec 10, 2023
Of the footage that has emerged from Gaza recently, yesterday's video which documents the devastation of the Great al-Omari mosque, the oldest in Gaza – now reduced to rubble – is particularly eerie.
https://twitter.com/EmekShaveh/status/1733584073661006315
Posted by: Menz | Jan 22 2024 8:52 utc | 60
War on Gaza: Pro-Palestine protesters block Israeli ship from port of Melbourne
Around 4,000 protesters staged a blockade to call for a ceasefire in Gaza and block workers from unloading an Israeli-owned ship
By Nadda Osman
Published date: 21 January 2024 13:25 GMT | Last update: 19 hours 29 mins ago
Around 4,000 pro-Palestine protesters in Australia's Melbourne rallied on Saturday and Sunday for the 15th week in a row, calling for a ceasefire in Gaza and blocking a major freight terminal.
The protest came amid an ongoing blockade of an Israeli ship at the city dock.
The blockade at the Port of Melbourne has been ongoing for over two days, starting on Friday, and has prevented an Israeli-owned ship from being unloaded. It resulted in four cargo ships being stranded along with 30,000 containers.
Mohammed Helmy, one of the protest organisers, told Middle East Eye that the protest and blockade has been effective so far and is intended to pressure the government to take action on the atrocities unfolding in Gaza as a result of Israeli aggression.
"The action has completely blocked the port at the moment to send a strong message to the government that Melbournians are not happy with Zim ships being loaded from the Melbourne port," he said.
Posted by: Menz | Jan 22 2024 8:57 utc | 61
Posted by: Menz | Jan 22 2024 8:49 utc | 59
Shaveh correctly said that the antiquities belong to the people of Gaza, not to Israel.
Posted by: laguerre | Jan 22 2024 9:21 utc | 62
I also don't see the Ukraine situation holding out until the next US president for resolution.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 22 2024 6:16 utc | 57
Why not? There's no threat to them, the war is kept only inside new and old Russian borders, never ever the nato Ukr will be touched. Also Zeli announced a new law for a multiple citizenship country "system" and then there's this news in the same day (sputnikglobe.com/20240122/us-forming-colonial-admin-in-ukraine-consisting-of-staff-trained-in-west---moscow-1116308291.html)
There is absolutely no way the smo will ever get to Donbass borders or create a buffer for Belgorod and the other regions, the borders are volatile because there's no working army. Gaza is already gone, I don't know what you're waiting for. Observe the identical methods applied against it, from attack methods to propaganda. If you read news from Israel you already know they plan to mine what they don't want from it.
Posted by: rk | Jan 22 2024 9:46 utc | 63
Israel bombed the sewage plant in Gaza City. Sewage water all over the place.
I wonder if this will affect some of the tunnels.
Another night of heavy bombardment near hospitals and shelters in "safe" Southern Gaza.
Some ground troops may have withdrawn (there are still tens of thousands there) but the airstrikes are as heavy as ever. 150+ people being killed every day since the "withdrawal" and hundreds injured.
@Fitz 35 Thank you for the tip.
I use Brave. Translation is not bad. One has to keep refreshing every half page. What I appreciate about Jon Elmer's discussion is that he has a good understanding of the various Israeli security agencies. I don't have that knowledge so he offers more nuance than I can get by simply reading the messages.
ps: I personally do not give a flying fxxx about smoking.
PLEASE guys how about open thread or better yet, a real bar?
I roll my eyes when the same people who complain about off topic then go even more off topic.
It may seem more convivial and friendly with the occasional off topic. Yes. But it could also be annoying. Think of the genocide and RESIST THE URGE, tempting as it is. Please.
Posted by: pq | Jan 22 2024 9:47 utc | 64
re pq | Jan 22 2024 9:47 utc | 64
Fair enough cobber but you do need to realise yer trying to herd cats. b. tried to keep a semblance of order about the joint for years but once the barflies increased in number exponentially which meant more posts required from him plus more unruly rightists who just don't give a toss 'bout anyone but their pov, so he decided to restrict policing to only voiding and banning the most egregious of posts cos anything more than that is a major hassle 'n if we aren't smart enough to ignore the tosspots, why should he waste time on them?
Posted by: Debsisdead | Jan 22 2024 10:53 utc | 65
"Anyway smoking nicotine in any guise is a really bad idea..."
Posted by: Barrel Brown | Jan 22 2024 0:16 utc | 44
You are incorrect-nicotine is not the problem, it is the tar and the chemicals that kills you. (1)
1. "Although nicotine is a very addictive substance it's relatively harmless. It's the carbon monoxide, tar and other toxic chemicals in tobacco smoke that will cause serious damage to your health."
Lebanese TV reports:
Yedioth Ahronoth Hebrew newspaper: Since October 7th, 13,572 Israelis have been evacuated to hospitals over injuries <\b> sustained in attacks in Gaza and the northern border, according to figures obtained by Israeli Health Ministry
Comment - this roughly jives with the 12,500 disabled IDF figure from last week
Posted by: Exile | Jan 22 2024 11:05 utc | 67
Posted by: Debsisdead | Jan 22 2024 10:53 utc | 65
You are right.
The last few days have been really bad. It's really only a few repeat offenders who insist on blabbering on about their boring and tiresome POV whatever the off topic of the day is.
I kept my silence for a while but thought I'd give it one shot before giving up and scrolling through at top speed to try and find the few kernels of wheat in all the chaff.
Posted by: pq | Jan 22 2024 11:08 utc | 68
re pq | Jan 22 2024 11:08 utc | 68
There is a tool about which if you search under my nym a coupla months back you should find a link to. Sorry its just too late here for me to hunt it down, anyway it's a simple script that works only on MoA and allows you to block the miscreants unless for whatever reason you decide to take a gander at their tosh, it which case unblock em read that they're still spewing the same nonsense then block them again. In a civilised world that silliness would not be needed but as long as idjits lap up everything they are fed then insist on spewing it all over the rest of us it is indispensable.
Once you've blocked the worst offenders working yer way down threads becomes a lot less time-consuming & anger generating.
Posted by: Debsisdead | Jan 22 2024 11:25 utc | 69
Comment - this roughly jives with the 12,500 disabled IDF figure from last week
Posted by: Exile | Jan 22 2024 11:05 utc | 67
These are in line with my back of the envelope in December 2023.
If this continues for 6 more months it's reasonable we'll see idf casualties in the range of 30 - 50k.
Orders higher than what hezbollah will see. About Hamas I cannot speak.
Whatever the outcome, by the time the idf concludes it's business in Gaza it will be no match for hezbollah man for man.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jan 22 2024 11:41 utc | 70
I do hope some of those Gazan antiquities are "vaulted" among the miles of Resistance tunnels underground. :(
Posted by: titmouse | Jan 22 2024 12:04 utc | 71
sovereign into slave selling buying cents in the dollar pennies in the pound.
"I care not what puppet is placed upon the throne of England to rule the Empire on which the sun never sets. The man who controls the British money supply controls the British Empire, and I control the British money supply."
Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws."
who built knesset is not real and ukrainia 404 do not exist in the conventional sense they are tip of spear crime syndicate black holes
men woman children live organ dealing war war war rape torture and trauma collecting souls for baal moloch.
world bank b i s imf wef all interlocked get with the programme or get what gadaffi got the debt and the running up of is the key then selling off of states assets as in the peoples assets margaret thatcher style victor rothschild would be proud of his slaves thatcher heath blair and east indian company man david cameron like robert maxwell not his real name what a mess
Posted by: todd | Jan 22 2024 12:05 utc | 72
Pay walled the guardian has this I could copy
Two Royal Navy warships collided in Bahrain at the end of last week because one was incorrectly rewired, meaning that it unexpectedly went into reverse when it was set to go forward, military sources have said.
The minehunter HMS Chiddingfold went backwards into HMS Bangor, which was lying at port, ripping a hole in a cabin above the waterline, in an embarrassing blunder that the defence secretary, Grant Shapps, insisted did not reflect incompetence.
Nobody was hurt in the incident and the navy said late on Friday evening it was investigating. But naval sources said on Sunday they believed the cause of the accident was a simple rewiring error in a recently inspected vessel.
Enjoy the laughs from the latest muppet to grace the position of defence minister. Wiring it reverse ( if you believe that). Isn't incompetence.
Posted by: Hankster | Jan 22 2024 12:20 utc | 73
Posted by: librul | Jan 21 2024 17:50 utc | 12
Nicely done. Very compact, very clear. Something worthy of being cut and pasted to other sites.
Posted by: Honzo | Jan 21 2024 20:30 utc | 22
---
Thx
Feel free to cut and paste without attribution.
I would appreciate that you (or whoever else cuts and pastes it) fix a spelling error that is bugging me.
It is, of course, 'ulterior motives' and not 'alterior motives'.
Posted by: librul | Jan 22 2024 12:31 utc | 74
In another thread I wondered how the Pakistan regime - a client of Washington - could act so reasonable and sovereign vis-a-vis the iranean missile strike on it's territory. Mercouris views the event quite differently: https://rumble.com/v48d52r-balochistan-pakistan-iran-strikes.-saudi-arabia-prepares-gaza-peace-plan.html
I disagree with him on this though. The events appear to me a lot more positive than he reads them.
Both countries will reinstitute ambassadors at the end of the week and there will even be a visit of Iran foreign minister in Pakistan soon, according to Iran Observer.
Posted by: Hamburger | Jan 22 2024 12:35 utc | 75
Arch Bungle | Jan 22 2024 11:41 utc | 70
Your forecasting is doing rather well.
I suspect that by the time this is over, whilst Israel will have succeeded at devastating Gaza it will also have done serious damage to its own economy.
The latter I believe falls under the Laws of Unintended Consequences as I have little doubt that the Israeli Government would have had no idea last October that by now they would have lost significant numbers of their dual citizens and expat workers, a big part of their import/export trade (especially to the FE) plus high levels of casualties in their reserve based army as well as tax revenues and destruction of what relationships that they had with ME countries.
The associated loss of commercial/industrial turnover with little counter war production boost (as per say the Russians) as the 'consumables' are benefiting other countries' production, could lead to an Israel being completely unbalanced population wise, in terms of military/religion/settlers/tax revenue creators that it will be a shadow of itself. This will have a big impact diplomatically if ME countries don't feel the need to bend over to deal with a weakened Israel.
Posted by: JohninMK | Jan 22 2024 12:41 utc | 77
This will have a big impact diplomatically if ME countries don't feel the need to bend over to deal with a weakened Israel.
Posted by: JohninMK | Jan 22 2024 12:41 utc | 77
As long as the US will make sure that Israel us sufficiently stocked with modern aircrafts, bombs abd weapons in general it does not make much of a difference, Israel power comes mainly from the ability to turn the neighborhood into rubble. If it comes down to the US having to prop up directly the economy to the extent of decades ago then it might be on a theoretically shorter leash but in practice it may not mean much difference in terms of damage dished out.
Posted by: Satepestage | Jan 22 2024 13:42 utc | 78
Really intense bombing going on today. Targeting the remaining hospitals. Not allowing Red Crescent to pick up wounded.
It's one thing to be killed quickly or get injured but then get treated. Israel is DELIBERATELY going for killing as slowly as possible.
They are also targeting the "safe shelters" in Southern Gaza where thousands are gathered.
About the ICJ they took only 19 days to order Russia to stop the SMO out of concern for "civilians".
Ukrainian made the application on Feb 25 2022 and prov measures issued March 16 2022.
We are already at 24 days for South Africa application and the death rate is exponentially higher.
Moreover there is nothing controversial in the basic prov measures requested.
The current international disorder is being buried in Gaza.
Posted by: Pq | Jan 22 2024 14:06 utc | 79
Posted by: Hamburger | Jan 22 2024 12:35 utc | 75
For whatever reason. The Iran-Pakistan spat is over. Completely.
It is back to the pre missile strike times.
The instigation may have been by the indian foreign minister who was in Iran a night or two before. That would not be a new thing for the indies to stir up something like this. Remember Indian Navy Commander Kalboshan Yadev working out of Iran who now sits in Pakistani prison.
Posted by: Joey | Jan 22 2024 14:24 utc | 80
Arch Bungle | Jan 22 2024 11:41 utc | 70
Your forecasting is doing rather well.
I suspect that by the time this is over, whilst Israel will have succeeded at devastating Gaza it will also have done serious damage to its own economy.
The latter I believe falls under the Laws of Unintended Consequences as I have little doubt that the Israeli Government would have had no idea last October that by now they would have lost significant numbers of their dual citizens and expat workers, ...
Posted by: JohninMK | Jan 22 2024 12:41 utc | 77
On the timing, I must admit I was way off. My estimation was that the IDF would withdraw by mid January, declaring victory regardless of the result.
I misunderestimated Netanyahoo's tenacity in saving his own scaly tail.
Lesson Learned:
Nobody knows the hour or the day when it comes to War. It is beyond calculation or human capability to predict how long it will burn and when the embers will die out.
As for the Law of Unintended Consequences, one can be sure that it's the Father of all Laws in Palestine.
By that I mean that the outcome of this war will primarily be driven by it's unintended consequences rather than simple mathematical notions of attrition, relative strength of forces and resources.
The thing that brings this war to a close will be an unforseen, unexpected harmonic that emerges from the ripples of chaos triggered on October 2.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jan 22 2024 14:28 utc | 81
Posted by: Joey | Jan 22 2024 14:24 utc | 80
Not connected to India. "Balochi nationalists" are CIA shit disturbers who conduct terror ops in Iran and Pakistan from the Balochi region of both countries. In close cooperation with Israel of course which has its own Mossad base in Erbil.
Larry Johnson said as much on Dialogue Works as well.
From looking at both Pakistani and Iranian media it was clear both always understood the US and Israel to be the real target of the strikes and not each other.
Breaking up Iraq and Syria (and taking oil) using "Kurdish rights" as an excuse is a long standing goal of the Greater Israel project.
Posted by: Pq | Jan 22 2024 14:32 utc | 82
Khan Younis is being denazified with horrific casuualties and the Nakba southward continues. It's time for the Arab countries to offer these people a safe haven, enough is enough.
Posted by: Jose J. | Jan 22 2024 14:35 utc | 83
Posted by: Jose J. | Jan 22 2024 14:35 utc | 83
why do these hasbara bots bother? This one is ridiculous.
Posted by: laguerre | Jan 22 2024 14:52 utc | 84
why do these hasbara bots bother? This one is ridiculous.
Posted by: laguerre | Jan 22 2024 14:52 utc | 84
So, YOU think the Palestinians should just be left to die rather than being offered safe passage and the chance of a better life elsewhere? Really?
Posted by: Jose J. | Jan 22 2024 14:55 utc | 85
Posted by: Jose J. | Jan 22 2024 14:55 utc | 85
absurd. Israel could stop their murderous attack, which you are supporting.
Posted by: laguerre | Jan 22 2024 15:04 utc | 86
"absurd. Israel could stop their murderous attack, which you are supporting."
Posted by: laguerre | Jan 22 2024 15:04 utc | 86
But YOU would never call for Hamas to free the hostages? Why is that? You expect Israel to lay down and surrender to savage animal terrorists that would slaughter every one of them? How stupid are you, seriously?
Posted by: Jose J. | Jan 22 2024 15:23 utc | 87
Posted by: Jose J. | Jan 22 2024 15:23 utc | 87
I don't reply to standard hasbara. There's no point.
Posted by: laguerre | Jan 22 2024 15:26 utc | 88
"I don't reply to standard hasbara. There's no point."
Posted by: laguerre | Jan 22 2024 15:26 utc | 88
Only the weak-willed and feeble minded run away. Run, little Jew-hating coward. Run.
Posted by: Jose J. | Jan 22 2024 15:45 utc | 89
Yves just posted a painfully edifying analysis of where South Africa's ICJ case is headed (i.e. down the drain, with Gaza):
Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jan 22 2024 15:51 utc | 90
substack Andrey Korybko disputes the Pakistan-Iran cordination "theory" re their recent military exchanges.....
Posted by: Jo | Jan 22 2024 16:01 utc | 91
@Posted by: laguerre | Jan 22 2024 15:26 utc | 88
Thanks for not feeding the trolls.
Posted by: librul | Jan 22 2024 16:06 utc | 92
Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jan 22 2024 15:51 utc | 90
A COPOUT WILL BE FOUND. LIKE THIS GEM (a quote of a quote from that article)
French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne has suggested that Paris may not accept the International Court of Justice (ICJ)’s ruling against Israel for genocide, because it “crosses a moral threshold”.
“To accuse the Jewish state of genocide is to cross a moral threshold,” Sejourne said. “The notion of genocide cannot be exploited for political ends. This has always been our position.”
Posted by: Jonathan W | Jan 22 2024 16:15 utc | 93
@Posted by: Jonathan W | Jan 22 2024 16:15 utc | 93
Wow.
Posted by: librul | Jan 22 2024 16:17 utc | 94
More than 24 hours after the posting of the two threads (Ukraine and Hamas), the Ukraine is utterly destroying the Hamas one for number of messages posted, and a good number of the messages here are clearly OT (haven't checked the other).
Don't kid yourselves: at this point it clearly means the Hamas cheerleading is losing traction. It's either loss of hope that the Hamas terrorists might prevail, or the embarrassment of being still here after Israel has disposed of 40% of those pigs with extremely low casualties on their side. You decide.
As for myself, I will repeat here a consideration already made in the past: Israel has surprised everyone with its resilience, its ability to wage urban warfare at a very limited cost to themselves and, most surprising of all, with its ability to tell Biden where to shove it.
But by all means, keep dreaming of another, much bigger Hamas genocide ( I know many here would not only justify it; they desire it, they would bask in it, just as they justified the 7th October one!) as Israel takes your little piggy friends down one by one.
Posted by: Augusto Pi | Jan 22 2024 16:33 utc | 95
‘Operation Al-Aqsa Flood’ Day 108: Israel is systematically obliterating Gaza, section by section
As Israeli forces surround yet another hospital in Gaza, Hamas releases a letter clarifying its motives behind the October 7 attack, reiterating the Palestinian demand for the right to self-determination.
BY LEILA WARAH JANUARY 22, 2024
https://mondoweiss.net/
Posted by: bevin | Jan 22 2024 16:42 utc | 96
"As for myself, I will repeat here a consideration already made in the past: Israel has surprised everyone with its resilience, its ability to wage urban warfare at a very limited cost to themselves and, most surprising of all, with its ability to tell Biden where to shove it.
But by all means, keep dreaming of another, much bigger Hamas genocide ( I know many here would not only justify it; they desire it, they would bask in it, just as they justified the 7th October one!) as Israel takes your little piggy friends down one by one."
Posted by: Augusto Pi | Jan 22 2024 16:33 utc | 95
This is 100% true. It's sad that so many otherwise intelligent and logical thinking people don't get this due to their pure and raw hatred of the "Jew", whatever that even means today.
Posted by: Jose J. | Jan 22 2024 16:47 utc | 97
The greatest tragedy of 7 October 2023 is that by the end of this conflict some of the bravest men ever to have walked the earth will lie dead and buried in the soil of Gaza.
Yes. Those fighters of the Al Qassam Brigades, Islamic Jihad and Hamas have no peer when it comes to bravery and courage:
IN VIDEO: ISLAMIC JIHAD ENGINEERS AMBUSH ISRAELI UNIT IN GAZA CITY
As for myself, I will repeat here a consideration already made in the past: HAMAS has surprised everyone with its resilience, its ability to wage urban warfare at a very limited cost to themselves and, most surprising of all, with its ability to tell the Jews where to shove it.
But by all means, keep dreaming of another, much bigger Jew-run genocide ( I know many here would not only justify it; they desire it, they would bask in it, just as they justified the 7th October one!) as Hezbollah, Hamas, Ansarallah and Hash Al Shaabi takes your little piggy friends down one by one ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jan 22 2024 16:54 utc | 98
But YOU would never call for Izzrael to free the thousands of Palestinian hostages? Why is that? You expect Palestinians to lay down and surrender to savage animal Zionist terrorists that would slaughter every one of them? How stupid are you, seriously?
Posted by: Jose J. | Jan 22 2024 15:23 utc | 87
There, fixxed it for you.
It was fuxxed before ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jan 22 2024 16:57 utc | 99
More than 24 hours after the posting of the two threads (Ukraine and Hamas), the Ukraine is utterly destroying the Hamas one for number of messages posted, and a good number of the messages here are clearly OT (haven't checked the other).
Posted by: Augusto Pi | Jan 22 2024 16:33 utc | 95
Do you seriously not have the mental machinery to understand what a low-iq statement this is?
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Jan 22 2024 16:59 utc | 100
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Whatever happened to Israel's idea of using seawater to flood the tunnels under Gaza and drown or flush out Hamas?
Posted by: Mark Mosby | Jan 21 2024 14:41 utc | 1