Only for news & views directly related to the war in Palestine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

News & views (not related to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine) ….

There are a few new reports and news bites from Ukraine which are of interest.

Stephen Biddle, a professor who was written on strategy and military power from a realist standpoint, looks at the state of the war In Ukraine.

How Russia Stopped Ukraine’s Momentum – Foreign Affairs, January 29, 2024
Deep Defense Is Hard to Beat

The essence:

By late spring, the Russians had adopted the kind of deep, prepared defenses that have been very difficult for attackers to break through for more than the last century of combat experience. Breakthrough has been—and still is—possible in land warfare. But this has long required permissive conditions that are now absent in Ukraine: a defender, in this case Russia, whose dispositions are shallow, forward, ill prepared, or logistically unsupported or whose troops are unmotivated and unwilling to defend their positions. That was true of Russian forces in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson in 2022. It is no longer the case.

The implications of this for Ukraine are grim. Without an offensive breakthrough, success in land warfare becomes an attrition struggle. A favorable outcome for Ukraine in a war of attrition is not impossible, but it will require its forces to outlast a numerically superior foe in what could become a very long war.

Biddle does not expand from there.

But we know that the current Russian disposition of waging an ‘active defense’ is delivering day by day some small progress along the whole front.

Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep: No Chance To Win – Zero Democracy – Power Scuffle

Yesterday 3 U.S. troops were killed and 34 wounded due to an attack that allegedly hit on a place known as Tower 22. This is part of the Al Tanf area where U.S. troops illegally occupy parts of Syria to control the traffic on the main road between Iraq and Syria.

bigger

The reporting so far does not answer many arising questions.

Tower 22 is on the Jordanian side of the boarder but Jordan insists that no attack had happened on its grounds.

Another anomaly are the high rate of wounded from the alleged drone strike. Drones are used in mass in the Ukraine war but the casualties they cause are usually less than a handful per drone.

The highly automated short and medium range air-defenses (C-RAMs, the equivalent of naval Phalanx guns) at the base should be able to shoot down any drone. Why didn’t they work?

The U.S. has also used Al Tanf base and the Rukban camp to house and train ISIS splinter groups so they are able to attack perceived U.S. enemies. Were any of those folks around?

The U.S. claims that an Iraqi resistance group, allegedly supported by Iran, is responsible for the strike. There are several such groups allied with Iran in Syria and Iraq. Which one of them did this? Does the U.S. know this at all?

Iran denies any involvement in the attack.

The attack is certainly an escalation over previous ones. President Biden has said that he will respond to it.

The question in then to where to respond (Syria, Iraq, Iran) and to what grade. Most likely the U.S. will escalate from its previous bombing of this or that Iraq resistance group. Should the U.S. attack any state related institutions or position, the situation will escalate further.

The resistance camp would then try even harder to damage more U.S. assets. Since the U.S. assassination of General Quassam Suleimani its overall aim is to remove the U.S. from the Middle East.

The U.S. immediate response to the hit was the activation of long range tanker planes:

Cont. reading: War On The Middle East – The Time Of Monsters

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Palestine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Last week’s post on Moon of Alabama:

Middle East:

• January 22 – U.S. Claims No Alternative To Larger Middle East War
• January 23 – To Hope That China Will Help With Yemen Is Delusional Bullshit
• January 25 – After U.S. Again Bombed Yemen, Houthi Attack DoD Transport Ships
  Related:
  – The end of the Anglosphere age in the Middle East – The Hill
  – Intel gap vexes US Navy’s hunt for Houthi missile smuggling – AL Monitor
  – US, Iraq begin formal talks on winding down US-led military coalition – Aljazeerah
  – “Our goal is to stop the genocide”: The Grayzone interviews Houthi spokesman – Grayzone
  – Israel and US Military Operations in the Middle East Going Wobbly Under Multi-Front Pressure – Naked Capitalism

Elections:

• January 24 – Election 2024 – Preliminary Assessment
  Related:
  – Is the Electoral Fix Already In? – Racket
  – 2024: The Year Foreign Policy Delusions Die Hard” – Macgregor / American Conservative
    America’s leaders are out to lunch as the nation lurches forward into a more dangerous world.
  – 2024: The Year Foreign Policy Delusions Die Hard” – Macgregor / American Conservative
    The explosive situation in the Middle East threatens to lay bare our strategic weaknesses.

Boeing:

• January 24 – Boeing Failed To Re-install And Inspect Door Plug On Alaska Airways’ 737
  Related:
  – Opposition grows to Boeing 737 MAX 7 safety exemption – Seattle Times
  – Airlines Hoping for More Boeing Jets Could Be Waiting Awhile – New York Times
  – Culture key to latest Boeing MAX crisis: panelists (includes whistleblower testimony) – Leeham News

Diplomacy:

• January 26 – Biden Admin Perpetrates Small Act Of Diplomacy
  Related:
  – China containment becomes a lose-lose strategy for everyone – SCMP
  – China says Wang, U.S. Sullivan held ‘candid, fruitful’ talks on handling issues – Reuters / MSN
  – Great power lite? Why China is reluctant to wade into the Red Sea crisis and join US-led attacks on Houthis – SCMP

ICJ:

• January 26 – International Court Says Israel Has Likely Committed Genocide – Updated
• January 26 – The ICJ Could Not Order A General Ceasefire. It Ordered Israel To Cease Fire.
• January 28 – War On UN – West Retaliates Against ICJ Order By Defunding Humanitarian Mission For Palestine
  Related:
  – Israel’s Day of Reckoning – John Mearsheimer
  – Dockers stop ZIM boxship from berthing in Melbourne – Container News
  – Has International Law Survived, or Has the Western Political Class Killed It? – Craig Murray

—
Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2024-031

This morning I read through a rather a grotesque Twitter timeline (here sorted to tell the story):

Ali Abunimah @AliAbunimah – 22:09 UTC · Jan 26, 2024

A “ceasefire” is what you demand in an armed conflict. In a genocide you demand an immediate end to all genocidal acts and that is exactly what the ICJ ordered with immediate effect. Please stop helping “Israel” spin its historic defeat as a win.

Scholars of Genocide Expert Group @GenocideExperts – 00:45 UTC · Jan 27, 2024

Today’s ICJ ruling embodies a historical and watershed moment. It is a vindication of what Palestinians, international law scholars, and genocide experts have been insisting upon for months; Israel’s conduct against Palestinians is blatantly genocidal and must be stopped.
…
This ruling triggers third state obligations to prevent the commission of genocidal acts. @POTUS and others are now on further notice that their arming of the Israeli military could lead to legal complicity in Israel’s genocide of the Palestinians.

Lord Bebo @MyLordBebo – 21:44 UTC · Jan 26, 2024

🇮🇱🇿🇦‼️🚨 30 DAYS: ICJ WHAT’S NEXT?

Cont. reading: War On UN – West Retaliates Against ICJ Order By Defunding Humanitarian Mission For Palestine

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Palestine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

The responses by U.S. main stream media to the ICJ judgment on Israel are moronic.

Neither of these headlines is completely true nor do they reflect the court’s order:

• U.N. Court Orders Israel to Prevent Genocide, but Does Not Demand Stop to War – NYT, Jan 26, 2024
• U.N. court orders Israel to halt killings in Gaza, but no cease-fire – WaPo, Jan 26, 2024
• World Court Rejects Demand for Gaza Cease-Fire – WSJ, Jan 26, 2024

No legal scholar expected the International Court of Justice to order a general ceasefire.

Cont. reading: The ICJ Could Not Order A General Ceasefire. It Ordered Israel To Cease Fire.

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

News & views (not related to the wars in Ukraine or Palestine) …

Updated below (15:20 UTC):

The International Court of Justice today ruled in favor of the South African APPLICATION INSTITUTING PROCEEDINGS against Israel.

Pepe Escobar delivers the first summary of the verbal order (the written one will follow later):

Highlights:

“The military operation conducted by Israel in Gaza has resulted in untold death and injuries, destroyed substantial infrastructure and housing units, caused mass malnutrition, collapsed the healthcare system, and displaced the majority of its inhabitants. This war has affected the entire population of Gaza and will have far lasting consequences. The court has taken note of the language of dehumanization by senior Israeli government officials.”

The ICJ accepts the South African demand for urgent provisional measures to be taken for the protection of Palestinians in Gaza against Israel and RECOMMENDS (caps mine) the following:

Israel must take all measures to prevent genocidal actions; Israel must ensure that its military forces do not commit genocidal actions; Israel must punish incitement to genocide; Israel must provide access to essential aid; Israel must preserve evidence of its actions; Israel must provide a report of its actions.

The ICJ decision is BINDING.

Yet even as the ICJ decides that Israel must take all measures to prevent death and injury, and provide the full scope of humanitarian needs to Palestinians (includes access to food, medicine, infrastructure, etc), what happens if Tel Aviv simply ignores the decision?

Israel must file a report on the remedial actions within one month of the ruling. All bets are off on wether biblical psychopathology practitioners will comply.

By accepting the application and by ordering Israel do cease and desist from certain practices the Court seems to state that Israel has actually committed acts of genocide.

As Heidi Matthew, an assistant professor of law at Harvard remarks:

Cont. reading: International Court Says Israel Has Likely Committed Genocide – Updated

Via Antiwar I came to a recent piece by Ted Schneider

U.S.-China Policy Is Not Going According to Plan – Libertarian Institute, Jan 25 2024

On January 13, the Taiwanese returned the Democratic Progressive Party and its new leader, Lai Ching-te, to power. Lai’s winning campaign had a platform of promoting a separate identity for Taiwan and rejecting China’s territorial claims.

However, the election may not reflect the simple mandate the West projects onto Taiwan, of turning away from China and running into the arms of America.

In her new book, Russia, China and the West in the Post-Cold War Era, Suzanne Loftus cites 2021 polling that shows that only 38% of Taiwanese want independence from China. 50% support the status quo of no unification and no independence and a further 5% prefer unification with China. Recent surveys have found as high as 91.4% support for the status quo, even while 78.4% believe that Taiwan and China are not the same country.

Those are valid and well researched points.

However further down I found this paragraph which contradicted my state of knowledge:

Cont. reading: Biden Admin Perpetrates Small Act Of Diplomacy

Two days ago I discussed the reported hope the Biden administration has to get China’s help in the U.S. conflict with Yemen.

To Hope That China Will Help With Yemen Is Delusional Bullshit – Moon of Alabama, Jan 23, 2024

Chinese ship do not get bothered by Yemini forces. They only targeted ships were related to Israel and, since the U.S. and UK bombed Houthi positions, ships related to those countries are also under attack.

We have now learned why U.S. officials had expressed hope for Chinese help. The Financial Times reports of previous backroom talks with China about the issue.

US urges China to help curb Red Sea attacks by Iran-backed Houthis (archived) – FT – Jan 24, 2024

The US has asked China to urge Tehran to rein in Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea, but has seen little sign of help from Beijing, according to American officials.

Officials have repeatedly raised the matter with top Chinese officials in the past three months, asking them to convey a warning to Iran not to inflame tensions in the Middle East after Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel and the ensuing war.

US national security adviser Jake Sullivan and his deputy, Jon Finer, discussed the issue in meetings this month in Washington with Liu Jianchao, head of the Chinese Communist party’s international department, according to US officials. Secretary of state Antony Blinken also raised it, said a state department official.

This is so laughable that it is nearly sad.

Again, Chinese ships do net get bothered by Yemen. That other ships now have to avoid the Red Sea route and take an extra 14 days to sail around Africa gives China’s container fleet a business advantage. So why did anyone in the White House even thought about asking China for help?

As Lambert Strether at Naked Capitalism snarked about asking for Chinese help:

Cont. reading: After U.S. Again Bombed Yemen, Houthi Attack DoD Transport Ships

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Boeing recently made another mess with regards to its 737 MAX aircraft.

A door plug, used to cover the hole where some planes have additional emergency exits, blew out, while the Alaska Airways flight 1282 was still in the air.

The plane decompressed but made a safe landing in Portland.

I concluded:

One hopes that the FAA and Congress will finally get serious with Boeing. They must stop giving it all those lazy exceptions for issues that better (but more expensive) engineering can easily solve.

The question left open was who was responsible for the missing bolts that were supposed to hold the door plug in place but could not be found on the damaged plane. The 737 MAX 9  hulls are build by Spirit AeroSystems in Wichita, Kansas and then send to Boeing to be fitted out. There is usually no good reason to remove the door plug for the outfitting of the plane.

But the Seattle Times' Dominic Gates just landed a scoop which found that Boeing line workers had removed the plug but failed to reinstall it properly. The work had also not been inspected.

Here is the gist of his report:

Cont. reading: Boeing Failed To Re-install And Inspect Door Plug On Alaska Airways’ 737

Dear readers,

twice a year I ask for your help to keep Moon of Alabama going.

Most of you who come here value my analyses. Others are fond of MoA's vivid, if at times overcrowded comment section. I am very proud to host and nurture it, to the best of my abilities.

Other well know commentators have recommended Moon of Alabama:

Elijah J. Magnier @ejmalrai – 7:27 UTC · Dec 28, 2023

One of the excellent independent analysts who is worth following and supporting is @MoonofA.
You won't regret it.

Here are more reasons why you should consider to drop me whatever you can afford.

I, of course, love feedback like the above. Unfortunately I can not just live on it. I also need to pay for food, rent and other necessities of life.

This site is the full time effort of one person. There is no other income I can rely on. While I live in somewhat better circumstances than Spitzweg's Poor Poet, I am neither rich nor do I indulge in luxuries.

bigger

Every donation to this Poor Poet – be it $5, $50, $500 or more – is welcome and needed. A recurring contribution or sponsorship would be great. See below on how to do it.

Cont. reading: Please Support Moon of Alabama

At this point the U.S. presidential election of 2024 seems almost decided.

Today it looks likely that Donald Trump will again become president.

Trump has won the New Hampshire primary and the only other Republican candidate still in the race is the neo-conservative candidate Nicki Halley:

Donald Trump marched closer to the Republican nomination with a sweep of the first two contests, defeating former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley on Tuesday as voters turned out in projected record numbers in New Hampshire’s primary.

Trump’s lead here was decisive enough for the Associated Press to project his win shortly after polls closed. With nearly 75 percent of the vote tallied, Trump led Haley by about 11 percentage points.
…
Trump’s victory dealt another blow to critics in his party who saw the New Hampshire race as perhaps the last best chance to stop or slow him.

Halley is kept in the race by some billionaire donations, including from those who tend to donate to Democrats, in an effort to somehow still damage Trump:

Despite her shrinking path to halting Trump’s march to the Republican nomination, Haley’s showing in New Hampshire hinged on independents, who are permitted to vote in this state’s Republican primary.
…
New Hampshire voters in the Republican primary split about evenly between people who were registered as Republicans and those registered as independent or undeclared, with a tiny share saying they were not registered to vote before Election Day, according to early exit polls. Independents and undeclared registered voters supported Haley by about a 2-to-1 margin, while registered Republicans supported Trump by about 3 to 1.

The hope of the Halley supporters is that other open primaries may still give her a lead. Democrats turned Independents could flood such elections and make her look like a winner:

Cont. reading: Election 2024 – Preliminary Assessment