Yesterday Russia has send swarms of missiles to strike Ukraine:
Russia fired more than 150 missiles and drones at Ukraine on Friday in one of the largest bombardments of the war, officials said, hitting schools, parks, homes, a hospital and other civilian infrastructure, and rupturing the relative calm of an otherwise quiet winter on the conflict’s static front lines.
The scale of the attack confirmed what many in Ukraine have feared for months — that Russia was conserving its missile stocks throughout the fall for massive strikes in the winter.
It were however not schools, parks, homes or hospitals that were the targets.
As Strana writes (machine translation):
Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny said that "critical infrastructure, industrial and military facilities were attacked."
Indeed, judging by many sources, this missile attack was directed primarily at military enterprises and warehouses. Or on other infrastructure. At the same time, unlike last year's massive strikes, the current attack did not focus on energy facilities.
The Economist confirms the targeting of weapon production facilities:
[A] source in Ukraine’s defence industry suggests Russia had predominantly targeted defence facilities. Some were connected to missile and drone production. “The attacks had strategic meaning for the enemy, with the aim of reducing our capacity to strike,” the source says. Both sides are locked in a competition to degrade the enemy. “It’s a battle to see who can destroy more of the enemy’s long-range weapons.”
This comes three days after the Ukrainian president Zelenski boosted about domestic Ukrainian weapon production:
Ukraine tripled its domestic production of equipment and weapons in 2023 compared to the year before, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Dec. 27.
Amid rising uncertainty surrounding military aid from key partners like the U.S., Ukraine is looking to increase its own weapons production capacity.
Speaking at a meeting with Ukrainian defense industry workers, Zelensky said there has also been an "extremely significant" increase in domestic ammunition production, especially for artillery.
The production of drone ammunition is being "systematically expanded," Zelensky said. In 2024, "special attention will be paid to the production of explosives and gunpowder, which are in short supply in the world."
Zelenski is putting his hope on foreign cooperation:
According to Zelensky, Ukraine's defense complex will become further integrated with the international defense system. In 2023, Ukraine joined forces with German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall to repair Western-produced military vehicles and ultimately produce them domestically in Ukraine.
The joint Rheinmetall-Ukrainian Defense Industry enterprise was registered on Oct. 18. "The creation of a joint enterprise is, without exaggeration, a landmark event that takes cooperation between our countries to a qualitatively new level," Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.
Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger said on Dec. 2 that the company plans to build the first armored vehicles on-site in Ukraine in the summer of 2024.
Later in December, Ukrainian and U.S. officials signed a statement of intent on the co-production of weapons.
I do not know what Rheinmetall's CEO Papperger is smoking, but if he believes that his weapon production facility in Ukraine can survive more than a few weeks it must be some very strong stuff.
More Strana (machine translation):
Judging by the locations of the strike, the main targets were warehouses and military enterprises.
A Ukrainian specialist in electronic warfare and drones, Sergey Beskrestnov, recently stated on one of the YouTube channels that "Russia is actively tracking down our defense enterprises," and among their employees there are many informants of the Russian Federation.
"We, unfortunately, have a lot of traitors, pensioners (factory workers – Ed .) merge where, what, where is sent… A hangar with finished products was destroyed at one production enterprise, and very large damage was suffered. When they began to deal with the counter-measures, it turned out that my grandfather, who was the chief engineer there, for a ten – dollar bill (10 thousand – Ed .) reported when it was necessary to do this (strike)," said Beskrestnov.
"Hunting" for enterprises is a predictable strategy of the Russian Federation in light of the fact that Ukraine has announced its intentions to develop military production on its territory and increase the production of drones and ammunition, as well as the capacity to repair armored vehicles.
Those problems will occur again and again.
There is hope to get more air defense systems from other countries. However, their international availability is limited. The U.S. had to put strong pressure on Japan because it itself can not produce enough for Ukraine to survive:
Japan is set to announce that it will approve the sale of advanced air defense systems to the United States, a significant shift in its postwar policies restricting the export of weapons and military hardware, and a move that could help Washington support Ukraine in its fight against Russia.
Those systems, when delivered, will also get destroyed.
Just recently a complete Patriot system, which had previously taken down some Russian jets, was eliminated at the Kherson railway station. Russia also announced the elimination of an IRIS-T and other such shorter range systems provided by western countries:
Operational-Tactical and Missile Troops of the Russian Groups of Forces eliminated combat vehicles of air defence systems, namely, one Norwegian-made NASAMS, one German-made IRIS-T, one French-made Crotale-NG, one S-300 air defence system radar, and three U.S.-made AN/TPQ-50 counterbattery warfare radar stations.
There are not enough air defenses to cover each and every production facility in Ukraine and Russia can send a practically unlimited amount of missiles:
Therefore, it is likely that the Ukrainian command will try to cover important defense facilities with additional air defense systems as much as possible in the near future. Although here a big role will be played by the ability of the allies to supply them in the necessary volumes. As well as Russia's ability to further increase the intensity of strikes.
But what about those schools, parks, homes or hospitals that were hit and damaged?
They are simply collateral losses caused by Ukrainian air defenses:
Ihnat, the air force spokesman, said that it was unclear what exactly the Russians were targeting, as some missiles were intercepted by Ukrainian air defense, and damage was caused by falling fragments.
“When certain objects get hit, you can conclude that they were trying to aim for it,” Ihnat said. “But there are also things like debris.”
“If a flying rocket is hit, this is a large mass of metal, burning rocket fuel and so forth,” he said. “And the explosives can also still be undetonated. So when the debris of this rocket falls down, it can still have serious consequences on the ground. The work of air defense, even when it’s successful, can still have serious consequences.”
Air defense systems In Ukraine are just like all those other western super-weapons. Their alleged supremacy gets defeated by Russia before they are able to do any serious damage.