Ukraine Open Thread 2023-324

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December 31, 2023

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Posted by b on December 31, 2023 at 13:34 UTC | Permalink

Comments

@ Satepestage | Jan 2 2024 13:25 utc | 199
It’s also worth noting that Poland (among other countries) is sheep-dipping hundreds, perhaps thousands of troops to send to Little Russia as “volunteers.”
One need only ask oneself why these countries dare not send their troops in their own uniforms.

Posted by: malenkov | Jan 2 2024 13:31 utc | 201

Posted by: Micron | Jan 2 2024 11:49 utc | 189
Come on, Baltics is six millions or thereabouts with pretty unfavourable demographics, a speed bump at best. The poles have been blocking border crossing with Ukraine, that they are going to commit suicide is possible but not guaranteed.
Posted by: Satepestage | Jan 2 2024 13:25 utc | 199

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 2 2024 13:52 utc | 202

Posted by: Micron | Jan 2 2024 12:01 utc | 191
So that I understand that correctly… if you don‘t see any videos with Ka-52 flying, that means the russians aren‘t using them?

Posted by: NoName | Jan 2 2024 14:05 utc | 203

Several times over the last few years, footage of Kinzals came out of Ukraine. Basically just a streak or teardrop of flame traveling at very high speed across the shy. With the recent strikes, more footage has emerged, especially where there are several hits on the same target.
They show a streak of flame coming down near vertically. Specs on them as I understand it is mach 7 cruise speed and mach 12 terminal speed. Described as semi ballistic missile so I assume that when used on long range targets, the rocket motor cuts out for a time then fires again to take it up to mach 12 in the terminal dive.
Himars seem to have largely fallen by the wayside, very little mention of them any more. The brits have been able to get several storm shadow missiles through Russian defences to hit the likes of the naval base/assets in Crimea.
The Brits appears to be planners of most terrorist style attacks against Russian civilians with the brits being named as the planners of the attacks on Belgarod. Accordingly a hotel in Kharkov was hit hit that was the meeting place or headquarters of the brit contingent behind these attacks. Apparently a large gathering of brit officers and rebadged SAS troops. Brit terrorists in Ukraine are now likely to be priority targets.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 2 2024 14:17 utc | 204

Proper link.
…
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 2 2024 10:11 utc | 183
Very interesting. Is it a Kinzhal? On an assumption that the video was shot at 30 frames per second, and a Kinzhal has a length of about 7 metres, my rough calculation is that the missile travelled about 20 metres per video frame (ie in 1/30th sec) and thus had a speed at this point of 600 m/s, or 2160 km/hr.
Wikipedia says “In an interview published by The Economist on 13 June 2023, the Ukrainian Patriot operators stated that the Kinzhal missiles travelled at approximately 1,240 m/s (Mach 3.6), which is about one-third of the maximum speed claimed by Russia.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kh-47M2_Kinzhal
On the face of it the video is more consistent with a missile with a top speed of 1240 m/s (before slowing due to atmospheric drag) than with a missile with a top speed of 3400 m/s

Posted by: Marduck | Jan 2 2024 14:28 utc | 205

Posted by: chop | Jan 2 2024 13:28 utc | 200
It was, I believe, Weeb Union who said that the HIMARs setup was spotted by RF drones, then the Russians attacked it with MLRS as that was the most rapid, but not the most accurate, response available. Drone footage showed numerous explosions going off in an area around the HIMARs of several hundred meters. Apparently a few of the rockets landed close enough to the HIMARs to take it out. I wonder if Russia then sent out a Lancet to finish it off?

Posted by: Mike R | Jan 2 2024 14:34 utc | 206

Posted by: zorge | Dec 31 2023 22:15 utc | 62
“destruction of Ukro 750 KV infrastructure is an easy and bloodless way to solve many Russian problems.”
Incorrect. The entire Nuclear Power Plant fleet relies on the 750kV grid to remain safe…unless you want to rely on increasinglyvulnerable supplies of diesel to keep the back-up generators running to avoid potential catastrophe.
Not a grand strategic move by any stretch of one’s imagination.

Posted by: Jon_in_AU | Jan 2 2024 14:44 utc | 207

Posted by: Micron | Jan 2 2024 12:01 utc | 191
So that I understand that correctly… if you don‘t see any videos with Ka-52 flying, that means the russians aren‘t using them?
Posted by: NoName | Jan 2 2024 14:05 utc | 203
Slight adjustment : if I don’t see any videos, AND if I see american Bradleys mowing down Russian soldiers right on the line of contact, then yes my logical deduction is that Russians aren’t using them. I am curious as to what the alternative explanation is and how in particular you explain the Russian inability to close the Avdeevka pincers. Please avoid fanciful explanations (“it’s a trap”) and apply Ockham’s razor.

Posted by: Micron | Jan 2 2024 14:49 utc | 208

I doubt Russian war with Baltics will look like Ukraine SMO. War with Baltic, Finland or Poland will be more decapitation and total annihilation type war including capital city strikes. It can’t be any other way, since it is Nato, the game is to get rid of Nato satellite states as an effective opponent ASAP with any means.
Nato ‘planners’ have already gamed out how they could cause a war between fore mentioned states and Russia, but they couldn’t figure out how they can do it without committing Washington as a target. They want a limited theater.
While Washington won’t be a target, those capital cities and population centers certainly will be targets, like Gaza.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 2 2024 13:52 utc | 202
Ah I see, decapitation… You mean like the strike wave over Ukraine in the first days of the SMO ? I fail to see how a few tens or hundreds of missiles would achieve any different result than in Ukraine. Baltic or Polish troops would simply apply the same strategy, bunker up in the cities, send waves of FPV drones. With the added experience of the Ukrainian theater.
Another thing : I keep hearing that Russia is not employing massive force against Ukrainian cities because they want to keep the moral edge with the rest of the world. And now you tell me they would have no qualms razing Tallinn or Warsaw to the ground (cue the inevitable WWII parallels) ? Very strange…

Posted by: Micron | Jan 2 2024 14:53 utc | 209

War with the Baltics (LT, LV, EST)? A nothingburger. Some people tend to be obsessed by that. But honestly there is nothing there anymore, the industrial economy has been largely dismantled, they lost 1/4 to 1/3 of their population in the last thirty years. Half of the actives works abroad part of the year or the whole year, as in BG, RO. These money transfers make it look as if the Baltic GNPs actually grows.
The Russians have upgraded ports around Sankt Petersburg and do not need Klaipeda or Riga anymore. They do not need the Baltic butter, cheese etc.
What about the minorities? The Russian speakers in LV, EST who do not speak enough Latvian, Estonian.. receive a passport in a different color marked “alien”. The EU boasts of its minority protection laws (Basks, Catalans, Sorbs, Sami..) but these are not applied to this minority. Anyhow a lot of these Russian speakers have already migrated east or westward. Will African and Asiatic migrants fill up their places if the EU starts to spread the incoming migrants and starts to fine the recalcitrant EU member states for not taking their quota? How will the Balts react to mass migration of non Caucasians? They should think more about that than about hypothetical Russian occupation.

Posted by: Teraspol | Jan 2 2024 14:54 utc | 210

karlof1 | Jan 1 2024 17:47 utc | 115
I’m not sure about the grenade launcher flak gun concept. Detection is the big thing. Those talking rifles and shotguns I assume have the ag drones hovering to drop grenades in mind. The ones that look truly frightening are the small nimble drones that are essentially a flying grenade. There has been footage from both sides of soldiers trying to fight these and the drones always win.
It has been on my mind since shortly after the start of the SMO that every small (platoon) sized unit requires a dedicated anti drone position/member. Early detection combined with some form of flack gun may be the answer. Cutting control link does work or has worked, but with constantly evolving programming and the beginnings of AI, they can act autonomously once within sight of the target.
A man portable detection/EW unit coupled with a kinetic weapon such as your idea?

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 2 2024 15:14 utc | 211

… On an assumption that the video was shot at 30 frames per second, and a Kinzhal has a length of about 7 metres, my rough calculation is that the missile travelled about 20 metres per video frame (ie in 1/30th sec) and thus had a speed at this point of 600 m/s, or 2160 km/hr.
…
Posted by: Marduck | Jan 2 2024 14:28 utc | 205
Did you use the time between the impact flash and shockwave hitting the camera to estimate the distance between camera and point of impact? I’m wondering if the apparent length is longer than the missile due to atmospheric heating … the nose does look while hot,

Posted by: anon2020 | Jan 2 2024 15:28 utc | 212

Slight adjustment : if I don’t see any videos, AND if I see american Bradleys mowing down Russian soldiers right on the line of contact, then yes my logical deduction is that Russians aren’t using them. I am curious as to what the alternative explanation is and how in particular you explain the Russian inability to close the Avdeevka pincers. Please avoid fanciful explanations (“it’s a trap”) and apply Ockham’s razor.
Posted by: Micron | Jan 2 2024 14:49 utc | 208

There is also the question of where the hell the Russian FPVs and Lancets are, to take out the Bradleys if there are not Ka-52s around…

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 2 2024 15:57 utc | 213

I doubt Russian war with Baltics will look like Ukraine SMO. War with Baltic, Finland or Poland will be more decapitation and total annihilation type war including capital city strikes. It can’t be any other way, since it is Nato, the game is to get rid of Nato satellite states as an effective opponent ASAP with any means.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 2 2024 13:52 utc | 202/

Maybe in Lithuania. Certainly not in Latvia and Estonia — those are a third and a quarter Russian countries, with the capitals having particularly many Russians.
There will be no nukes and no carpet bombing of cities there.
Even Lithuania is unlikely. as there won’t be a need for it anyway — those armies number in the single-digit thousands. And they gave all their equipment to Ukraine. It will be a walkover. NATO bases may get a couple kilotons each though, if they are sufficiently far away from population centers.
Finland, on the other hand, will be a straight up decontamination operation, if it ever gets to that.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Jan 2 2024 15:58 utc | 214

Posted by: Micron | Jan 2 2024 14:49 utc | 208
You are aware of the fact of a concept called loiter time, that helicopters cannot stay indefinitely in the air and that their forward operating bases have to be some distance from the front. Even in Vietnam, where there were far higher concentrations of CAS platforms, it was reckoned that it took between 10-15 minutes before support arrived. Again, this is not a game, things take time, clever enemies exploit this, casualties result. War is about necessary adaptations where experience drives the speed of that reaction and the effectiveness of it. Bottom line, the 47th mech. Brigade were redeployed, allowing gains to be made on the Southern front, they are now fixed in position, with no strategic reserve to block any of the other Russian moves across the front. Post-War German accounts actively pushed this fallacious equivalence of the tactical and the operational spheres, focusing on loses as the metric of success. Operational successes of their enemies was dismissed as a result of being out numbered, never out thought or fought, and the impact of any victories diminished by the losses the Germans had inflicted.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 2 2024 15:14 utc | 211
The RM and USMC are looking at changes to the TO&E, with EW/drone teams being distributed at platoon and company levels, like AT support weapons in WW2. So each squad has a trained Squad System Operator (SSO) who can operate individual systems, whilst platoons and companies will have their own dedicated teams/platoons in direct support.

Posted by: Milites | Jan 2 2024 16:14 utc | 215

Posted by: Micron | Jan 2 2024 14:49 utc | 208
I have no other explanation for you.
I believe that we get very little usable information and to draw big conclusions based on single videos (Bradley firing) or missing videos (no Ka-52) doesn‘t make much sense in my opinion.

Posted by: NoName | Jan 2 2024 16:15 utc | 216

Posted by: anonposter | Jan 1 2024 19:10 utc | 122
“Quadcopter carrying sniper rifles positions itself then sitd and waits patiently. No IR signature, no movement to accommodate bodily needs, no need for food and water, can endure harsh weather, batteries last months.”
They could even utilise induction coil charging, which would allow them to go and periodically recharge themselves by locating near any suitable EM field, such as aerial electricity distribution cables. That’s a terrifying prospect.
It might end up taking a Carrington level CME event to save us from our own destruction…if one were to arrive in time.

Posted by: Jon_in_AU | Jan 2 2024 17:15 utc | 217

Posted by: Micron | Jan 2 2024 14:49 utc | 208
I found an possible answer why you don‘t see any Ka-52 videos.
Source:
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/end-of-2023-roundup-update-on-the
„Sure, Russia has Ka-52s, but they operate from FARPS so far away that by the time they’re called in, Ukrainian armor has long withdrawn. It works fine for larger assaults, but for fitful positional engagements it’s ineffective. In Avdeevka we see M2 Bradleys pop out for a few minutes to rake Russian positions along the forest landings, then quickly retreat. A UCAV nearby could have engaged them within minutes. Instead, a Ka-52 might take 30-45 minutes to arrive and those M2s are long gone back to some hangar in Berdychi.“

Posted by: NoName | Jan 2 2024 20:25 utc | 218

Posted by: Micron | Jan 2 2024 14:49 utc | 208
I’m sure I saw footage of a ka-52 in the field on Slavyangrad…checking…
(Nov 16th, 18th & Oct 7th & 13th, Sept 7th, 2023 & so on), albeit firing Vikhr ATGMs.
Additionally, they show footage of mi-28 firing the LMUR-Izdeliye-305 on Dec 11th.
That’s just from a cursory search at their Telegram channel.

Posted by: Jon_in_AU | Jan 2 2024 21:26 utc | 219

“BTW it seems that cold weather affects seriously small drone flying. Donbass is getting below zero soon.”
Posted by: Catilina | Jan 2 2024 12:30 utc | 193
Bingo! Good observation!
I live in Canada and have some experience with electrical. Below -25° C you start to encounter problems with many products. Simply put the wires crack; Electronics become brittle.
I wasn’t going to mention it, but seeing you did why not.

Posted by: David G Horsman | Jan 4 2024 12:03 utc | 220

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