“Look at Israel. They show no mercy to their enemies. They do not care about “opinions of global south”. They bomb, threat and destroy. In the end they have been winning since 1948.”
Posted by: zorge | Dec 31 2023 21:17 utc | 55
Well, as Dr. Phil would say, “How has it worked for them.”
They got thrown out of Palestine by Hadrian went to Cyprus and in 117 AD murdered over 240,000 Cypriots then were thrown off the island-then over the centuries they were thrown out of dozens of countries.
“Winning”- that’s a farce-no they are digging themselves their own grave by their senseless genocidal violence. Zionism is their final ticket to oblivion.
By 2030 I don’t think you will have an Israel.

Posted by: canuck | Jan 1 2024 13:14 utc | 104

Conversion of the control over the nation state from those few with the wealth to those many who depend on the nation state for security, justice, truth and jobs is a prerequisite to self determination.. As long as the state promotes or allows private hands to own monopoly powers, to allow disinformation, and as long as the state creates by rule of law monopolies designed to allow private ownership to benefit from public duties or assets..there can be no self-determination.
Self determination is a human right.. suppressed by those with the wealth who control the nation state.

Posted by: snake | Jan 1 2024 13:44 utc | 106

Nazis – where have they been breeding for 80 years ?
There are a few such cuntries- mostly the 5 Eyes and as is obvious now the ‘+1’ .
This month let’s get the populations of these places to pick sides – either they carry on denying they have been breeding supporting and being Nazis themselves or they start to redress the great crime of keeping the Nazis philosophy alive and their ‘leaders’ being actual Nazis and Nazi sympathisers.
It ain’t perhaps fair to equate all the citizens and the whole country to be Nazis when they were hidden from the truth. They should be given a chance.
But now it is widely known that they have been living alongside as neighbours and friends of the secretly kept alive and breeding of Nazis. Preparing for generations another proxy attempt at taking Eurasia.
So what’s your excuse now? Why are you allowing Nazis as your friends, neighbours and leaders? Why are you still buying their lies and xenophobia? Why aren’t you turfing them out of government, armed forces, judiciary, police, academia, media and culture?
Why aren’t you throwing them into dungeons and setting up trials for their lies and crimes?
Want your country back or remain c**** and be exterminated by nemesis as the anti Nazis are forced to invade to defeat your sorry arses?
This goes for every nation that has been blinded into hiding and supporting the Nazis.
————
‘The Canada Files: Victor Hetmanczuk, Chair of the Board for Nazi-funding Canada-Ukraine Foundation was appointed as Member of the Order of Canada. The CUF gave a $300k CAD grant to the medical wing (Hospitallers) of a Ukrainian Nazi’s army in 2023, its COO Oksana Kuzyshyn trained the neo-Nazi Azov Battalion back in 2016, and its ‘Holodomor’ tour bus spreads Nazi propaganda to young children across Canada.
As you can see, Ukrainian Nazism is truly loved by Canada’s ruling elite. The Banderites were made the dominant faction of the Ukrainian Canadian community after Canada’s government looted the socialist Association of United Ukrainian Canadians in the 1940s and unified Ukrainian fascists into the Ukrainian Canadian Congress. This Banderite faction has been backed financially and politically ever since, with MPs Chrystia Freeland and Yvan Baker being their main representatives. This has enabled the extreme anti-USSR and now anti-Russia policies of Canada’s ruling elite.
To learn more, read this investigation on the CUF: http://bit.ly/3tqkABC
Source: https://bit.ly/47jVsKC
TCF’s Telegram: t.me/thecanadafiles ‘

Posted by: DunGroanin | Jan 1 2024 15:03 utc | 108

On the topic of Russians being exposed to swarms of Ukraine FPV drones, I wonder how such a drone would get on against a shotgun. A sawn off could be utilised for up close and personal situations.
Clay pigeon shooting is a popular sport. Clay pigeons don’t have little rotary blades that need to whizz round a thousand times a minute.
I also wonder how such drones would fare against 60lb breaking strain fishing line strung across the treeline above and around Russian trenches.

Posted by: Truthsayer | Jan 1 2024 15:19 utc | 110

Posted by: canuck | Jan 1 2024 13:14 utc | 104
What are your objections to the Jew’s historical behaviour in the Cyprus uprising, when they parallel the present day conduct of the Palestinians, whose cause you support?
Posted by: Milites | Jan 1 2024 15:08 utc | 109
The Jews of the 2nd century AD were pushed out of Palestine for their violent behaviour and then committed a genociude against Greeks who were Indigenous to Cyprus; the Jews were not.
They massacred civilians, same as they are doing 1,800 years later.
I cannot see how one can compare the current Palestinian plight to that of the 2nd century Jewish genociders in Cyprus.
“They[Jews]sacked Salamis and annihilated the Greeks. According to the Roman historian Cassius Dio, the rebels massacred 240,000 Greek Cypriots. Cassius Dio also reported that Jews were not allowed to settle in Cyprus after the suppression of the rebellion. In the centuries that followed, this law was applied so strictly that Jews who wrecked ships off the coast of Cyprus were quickly executed. Jewish settlement in Cyprus seems to have stopped completely until the 4th century AD. According to a recent source written by Eutychius of Alexandria, Cypriot Jews attacked Christian monasteries on the island during the reign of Heraclius (610-641). Twice in 649 and 649, in 653, when the majority of the population was Christian, Cyprus was raided twice by Arab armies, resulting in the capture and enslavement of many Cypriots. One story says that Jews enslaved in Syria managed to escape and seek refuge in Cyprus, where they converted and settled in Amathus in the late 7th century. A Greek-speaking Romaniotic Jewish community in the Byzantine period has been documented.”(1)
1. https://academic-accelerator.com/encyclopedia/history-of-the-jews-in-cyprus

Posted by: canuck | Jan 1 2024 16:01 utc | 112

Kupkee 111: Even 78 years after the end of the war, they are still such obedient World War losers that they don’t want to have anything they shouldn’t have.

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Jan 1 2024 17:32 utc | 114

My suggestion is a 40mm grenade with an altitude timer that can be shot from the standard grenade launcher providing an air burst similar to old fashioned ack-ack used in WWs 1&2.
Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 1 2024 17:47 utc | 115
—
Something like this ??? ==> http://roe.ru/eng/catalog/land-forces/ground-surveillance-radars/fara-vr/

Posted by: too scents | Jan 1 2024 18:02 utc | 116

a million new attack drones
Posted by: bored | Jan 1 2024 18:25 utc | 117
—
Meanwhile the West doesn’t have enough explosives to produce artillery shells.

Posted by: too scents | Jan 1 2024 18:41 utc | 118

@ anon2020 and others interested in the future of the drone in a happy new year 2024.
It is of course yet to be written, but interesting take on ‘drone swarms’ as explained by Chinese themselves. Zhao explains the difference between the Cold War and now in drone/missile usage.
The best thoughts:

Stop pretending jamming or EW as “click to disable” gimmick.
It requires constant updates from signal intelligence, just to keep up with enemy platform frequency hopping.
Not to mention multi-guidance, unless you have invisibility, you can’t spoof 1000 drones with hi-def camera.
and
Human can be kept within the OODA loop, but it could just be an entirely autonomous system, where it’ll attack any and every target that matches the image profile in its database.
Coupled with anti-ship ballistic missiles and hypersonic system, forms the modern area denial zone.
The problem is, many believe the invincibility of naval power projection.
When in reality humanity have never fought a high intensity peer to peer naval warfare in the age of missiles, let alone age of drone swarms.
Naval warfare is much like infantry tactics just before WW1

Posted by: whirlX | Jan 1 2024 18:48 utc | 120

Posted by: Milites | Jan 1 2024 12:46 utc | 103
>Two drones attacking one soldier, is a horrific vision, but far worse would be a drone guided Mortar Fire Controller (MFC) showering those troops with 100 X 81mm variable timed (VT) airburst bombs in one minute.
Nothing says you can’t have 100 drones carrying 81mm VT bombs. Mortar tube/base is heavy, slow to move, needs a human to setup, gives away its position when fired. If the mortar tube/base is treated as disposable because do easily targeted by counter battery fire, it’s more expensive than the quadcopter solution.
Posted by: golddigger | Jan 1 2024 18:42 utc | 119
>Re shotguns. Worthless. With 9mm buck shot you only have about a 50M range. A drone can fly over and drop grenades on you all day long, at far higher altitude than a shotgun can reach. Also to effectively use a shotgun against a moving target you have to stand and fully expose your self. Making you a target for snipers.
Humans armed with shotguns is next to useless but not automated “shotguns”. And it doesn’t have to be 9mm buckshot. Phalanx 20mm gatling gun has several km range. Plenty of options in between can be imagined.
EW does nothing against autonomous drones uses visible/infrared/audio/sonar to navigate and identify targets. You need a nuclear EMP weapon to fry the electronics and then you’d fry your own electronics.
The only workable alternative to kinetic is laser or similar electrical powered weapons, but these weapons need an immense power supply so easy to locate them attack with big missiles.
Speaking of snipers, wait until those become drones. Quadcopter carrying sniper rifles positions itself then sitd and waits patiently. No IR signature, no movement to accommodate bodily needs, no need for food and water, can endure harsh weather, batteries last months.

Posted by: anonposter | Jan 1 2024 19:10 utc | 122

Our source in the OP said that checkpoints in Kyiv were set up to test the technology for serving summonses, a beta test is now underway, and in 2024 a similar practice will be applied throughout Ukraine.
The Office of the President wants to solve the mobilization problem in a short time, which is why the methods are so radical.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/20986

Our source from the Office of the President reported that all the checkpoints in Kyiv were a test of the technology of total mobilization.
Bankova decided to use the experience of Covid-19, when the heads of local authorities could issue decrees to restrict the movement of citizens. Now the Military Administration, bypassing the law, is actually preparing special regimes throughout the country for checking documents and total mobilization.
TCC officials are given the right to check documents and inspect things from persons in the Dnepropetrovsk region, – Public.
In addition, a special entry/exit regime was introduced in the two districts.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/20998

Bankovaya came up with a clumsy pretext for the mass installation of roadblocks under the “sauce” of identifying saboteurs (there was no such threat before, but when it was necessary to catch the men en masse, the threat immediately appeared).
Colleagues were the first to reveal the purpose of the OP functionaries.
There are already a lot of checkpoints in Kyiv where they hand out summonses. Of course this is illegal. But in Ukraine no one respects laws, freedom of speech and human rights anymore. The country has slipped into the Middle Ages.

https://t.me/legitimniy/16982

Posted by: Down South | Jan 1 2024 19:38 utc | 124

Speaking of which, file this under goofy but thought-provoking:
https://t.me/milinfolive/113612

Video of the Ukrainian SeaBaby unmanned (naval) drone using rockets to fire at Russian ships near Sevastopol.
Previously, these drones were used by the enemy as kamikazes, but now they have begun to be equipped with weapons for firing from a distance.
It can be noted that the fire is not aimed and is unlikely to be effective in this case, however, such drones with MLRS can be used for covert firing of targets on the shore or in the bay, which will be a problem.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jan 1 2024 19:50 utc | 126

Posted by: Yrr | Dec 31 2023 14:29 utc | 5
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 1 2024 17:03 utc | 113
Watch frontline footage of drones targeting personnel. Birds and clay pigeons do not conduct evasive maneuvering at very high speeds as do the drones…
Yup, but in plenty of Telegram vids some of the more basic FPV drones appear to need to stop and hover at relatively low altitude above the intended target in order to accurately position a dropped munition. Assuming the “target” becomes aware of the loitering drone and has no shelter to retreat to, what the heck, why not try deploying some COTS 10 gauge shotguns in the trenches for contingencies? Cheap and utilitarian. Like the Russian infantry shovel. Beats spray and pray with an AK.

Posted by: UBAH | Jan 1 2024 19:51 utc | 128

by Oliver Krug | Jan 1 2024 20:02 utc | 129
Ha ha. Certainly is.

Posted by: whirlX | Jan 1 2024 20:12 utc | 130

Dima syas that Russia managed to destroy the first HIMARS system.
Why so late?

Posted by: zorge | Jan 1 2024 20:45 utc | 132

Posted by: zorge | Jan 1 2024 20:45 utc | 132
The first one this year? Late in the evening?

Posted by: Justpassinby | Jan 1 2024 21:07 utc | 134

@ anon2020 | Jan 1 2024 19:50 utc | 126 with the naval drone link…thanks
I have been thinking that the Houthi have such and will use them at the appropriate time against the navy tin cans in the region……maybe soon, eh?

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 1 2024 21:18 utc | 136

Posted by: zorge | Jan 1 2024 20:45 utc | 132
Of the New Year perhaps, they’ve destroyed several launchers since their deployment.

Posted by: Milites | Jan 1 2024 21:56 utc | 138

Vladimir Putin wouldn’t really give a shit about Russia and you’d be naive to believe otherwise : He’s a capitalist, first and foremost. Creating Muscovite Wall Street was about providing as much profit as possible for him and his cronies and ultimately creating an alliance between all of great capitalist nations against Beijing, which was considered the main rival by Russian elites, not Washington, which they desperately wanted to emulate and befriend.
American elites said NO to all of that, not wanting Russia as competition on the financial world, regime-changed Ukraine, to the bewilderment of Russian elites, including Vladimir Putin, then provoked Russia into a proxy war by having those vile banderites massacring Russian minorities at Russia’s border before hitting them with an economical war through EU. Again, showing how much Vladimir Putin and his clique were complete marks : American elites never considered Russian elites to be allies, let alone as equals.
Then, in Russia, about a year into the conflict, there was little internal revolt fom part of Russian capitalist class, caused by the change of course from neoliberal austerity economy to a more primitive form of state-sponsored capitalism based on actual material production that was made in order to be able to provide for the war effort and palliate to the western economical sanctions. This revolt was led by the last pro-west neoliberal hopes, Yevgeny Prigozhin and his mercs who claimed that were rescuing Vladimir Putin from Russian army’s clutch, claim which might have some partial accuracy as I doubt Vladimir Putin, the westophiliac fool, was really calling the shots at that point in the conflict. This revolt was quickly quelled by said Russian army and Yevgeny Prigozhin was assassinated, probably by GRU and Vladimir Putin had to forget all about his financial empire dreams and reinvent himself as an ‘anti-Imperialist’, allowing Russia to become Beijing’s junior partner, when him and his buddies were too happy before to collaborate with the western bloc when this wouldn’t go against his interests, of course.
The era of Vladimir Putin is done, all of considered thing, things wouldn’t go too bad for Russia, mainly because of the western bloc’s incompetence and impotence but this could have went very wrong – So, this my opinion that Vladimir Putin, the gullible idiot that believed the western bloc is going to be a symbolic figure at best from now on. You might believe that Vladimir Putin is a great incorruptible, infallible leader who really cares about Russia and its people, IDGAS.

Posted by: Mecha Comrade | Jan 1 2024 22:35 utc | 140

Dima syas that Russia managed to destroy the first HIMARS system.
Why so late?
Posted by: zorge | Jan 1 2024 20:45 utc | 132
…..0f 2024

Posted by: HERMIUS | Jan 1 2024 22:45 utc | 142

Sad news from Sputnik (I mean Russia Today). Ukraine’s cultural heritage seems to have been caught in the crossfire between good and evil:
“Two sites associated with WW2-era Nazi collaborators who have been hailed in present-day Ukraine as national heroes were damaged in the western city of Lviv overnight on January 1st. The development was confirmed on Monday by the city’s mayor, Andrey Sadoviy, who attributed the damage to Ukraine’s “national heritage sites” to Russian drone strikes.
“A major explosion rocked the house-museum dedicated to Roman Shukhevich. An early leader within the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, Shukhevich participated in terrorist activities and assassinations when Lviv was part of Poland during the interwar years.
“He went on to serve with the Nazi SS and later on led the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA), which has been accused of extensive ethnic cleansing targeting the region’s Jewish and Polish populations. He died in 1950 during a shootout with Soviet counterintelligence..”
https://www.rt.com/russia/590013-ukraine-explosion-museum-destroyed/

Posted by: bevin | Jan 1 2024 23:47 utc | 144

“We accepted the first battle with dignity. We did not back off. We went forward bald-headed. When we reached the position, we dug in there, and accepted the battle”
A quote from a young soldier fight for Russia with a difference he’s part of the first Ukrainians fighting for Russia to clear Ukraine of the nazis, The volunteer battalion named after Bogdan Khmelnitsky.

Posted by: HERMIUS | Jan 2 2024 0:11 utc | 146

Posted by: golddigger | Jan 1 2024 18:42 utc | 119
They have experimented with fine-mesh net shells for 12 gauges, with mixed results. My favourite counter were the trained eagles, used by the Dutch prison service to intercept illicit ‘supply’ drones, they proved too expensive though.
Posted by: Milites | Jan 1 2024 21:53 utc | 137
We in the mineral exploration industry we use drones for lidar, magnetometer or radiometric surveys. Two years ago a bald eagle took out our $20,000 drone and it also perished destroying the drone in mid air in a steep dive.

Posted by: canuck | Jan 2 2024 0:18 utc | 148

Lord Bebo
@MyLordBebo
🇺🇦🇷🇺🚨‼️ Photo shows military personnel in Kharkov hotel.
Russian MoD:
“A high-precision missile strike on the former Kharkov Palace hotel complex destroyed representatives of the Main Intelligence Directorate and the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who were directly involved in the planning and execution of the terrorist attack in Belgorod.
There were also up to two hundred foreign mercenaries who were planned to be involved in terrorist raids on the territory of the Russian Federation bordering Ukraine.”
— On December 31, the Russian Ministry of Defense made a statement on retaliatory strikes for the tragedy in Belgorod.
https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1741914009220080074

Posted by: Menz | Jan 2 2024 0:41 utc | 150

Sorry it’s about 50 meters, but still enough to hit that suicide drone that’s coming in for your trench or vehicle. Only light quadcopter kinds of course…

Posted by: Peter Fenton | Jan 2 2024 0:50 utc | 152

ZH has a posting up with the title
Ex-CIA Officer Says Ukraine A ‘Sinking Ship’ After NYT Highlights Recruitment Crisis
the quote

“The fact that the New York Times is now reporting this tells you how bad the situation is. They’ve realized that this party is over,” Johnson told Redacted host Clayton Morris in the weekend interview, referencing this NYT report.
“It goes to part of another story that came out last week about members of the Rada – the legislature. They’re trying to get out of Ukraine. So to get out of Ukraine at the border you’ve got to show a passport. So no passport, no leaving,” Johnson said.
“The fact that the Ukrainian legislators recognize that the end is near, which is why they’re trying to get out, it’s like that scene from the movie Titanic. The passengers are moving one direction, the rats are moving the opposite way. That’s what’s going on in Ukraine right now. The rats are heading for the lifeboats.”

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 2 2024 2:28 utc | 154

Posted by: Peter Fenton | Jan 2 2024 0:50 utc | 152
Slightly less than even your revised figure, military tests suggest between 24-36 metres, with even trained operators struggling to hit evading targets. Portable directed energy weapons, severing the drone’s control link, have a range of one Km.

Posted by: Milites | Jan 2 2024 2:54 utc | 156

Putin talked with the troops at a top-line military rehab hospital, then had an intimate chat, wine and a meal with some select troops at one of the government dachas, while Putin also delivered an address on the occasion of Russia becoming BRICS+ President for 2024. And to top the day, the Kremlin issued the plan for Russia’s 2024 Presidency of the CIS. Sorry for not posting this earlier, “New Year’s Day–Just Another Workday for Putin”. One short excerpt:

Do you guys have any questions for me? Don’t be shy.
A. Dublyanin: Comrade Supreme Commander-in-Chief!
In the course of a special military operation, we are liberating the Russian land. How do you feel about the help of Western countries to our enemy?
Vladimir Putin: The point is this: it’s not that they are helping our enemy. They are our enemy. They solve their problems with their hands. That’s what it’s all about. Unfortunately, this has been the case for centuries and continues to be the case today.
Ukraine itself is not an enemy for us. But those who want to destroy Russian statehood, those who want to achieve, as they say, a strategic defeat of Russia on the battlefield, are mainly in the West, and even then there are different people there. There are people who sympathize with us and who are with us mentally. But there are so-called elites for whom the existence of Russia – at least in its current quality, in its current size-they think is unacceptable. They want to split up. As a matter of fact, you are young people, some have read it, some have not read it-they do not hide it. They have been talking and writing about it publicly for decades, if we talk about modern history. For decades, they have simply written and openly talked about it: divide it into five parts, too many. I can tell you all about it until morning, but it’s obvious.
Therefore, they nurtured the so-called Kiev regime for quite a long time. It is precisely to create this conflict. Unfortunately for us, they have achieved this, created this conflict and are trying to solve their own task, namely, the task of fighting Russia, by the hands of the Ukrainians.
You probably see on the battlefield that they are gradually “deflating”. When a projectile flies, it is difficult to know whether it is “deflated” or not, but in general, you probably know that the situation on the battlefield is changing. This is despite the fact that the entire so-called civilized West in quotation marks is fighting us.

I added emphasis in several places when I posted this into my article but didn’t do so here as I want barflies to think about what they see as deserving that treatment.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 2 2024 6:09 utc | 158

Currently NATO stratotanker in South=Eastern Poland just North-West of Lavov, but on a Polish side.
Missile attack in Ukraine in progress, massive as it seems.
No ISR nowhere near the Black Sea. Or at least not traceable.
Leading Ukrainians and the World to a lie that Russia has weapons till Sunday and then it will collapse was a futile self-deception. Now they can start counting incoming stuff, running out of ink, I guess, halfway through.
From the Soviet psy-op manual from 1977 roughly interpreted:
“..always start to denounce the publicly claimed numbers by having accumulated 2 x or more missiles (assets) and than claiming or vigorously admitting having 2 x less, via press and domestic and foreign military magazines.
That way,the enemy will always make the wrong statistics having “a claimed” instead “a real” number, as a starting point. Counting fired missiles (spent assets) towards the wrong number, makes deceived enemy think that it is close to winning, therefore it opens up more prone to making crucial strategic mistakes while accelerating its false expectations.”
Nobody in NATO reads old Soviet manuals anymore.
Wasn’t Hitler, whining in his original calm deep voice and a fake Wien accent, about 35000 tanks Soviets had revealed, to some Finnish military dude? He could not imagine that and how come nobody told him about it.
So nobody in NATO is interested in what Hitler had to say about going to war with Russia and the deception Stalin pulled on Addi and ever since.
Nobody knows a real number of Russian anything. Even nukes. but in that case 20 or 50 more than declared. If RF admits number of whatever is XX to be talked about and published in wikipedias, Jane’s, reddits and such. The real formula would be resulting in having at least 3 times more that of the best experts guesstimate.
I just hope that Putin also has powers to pull brakes if generals and troops get too enthusiastic in moving forward, while annihilating Nazis and their infrastructures and personnel along the way.
To defeat NATO in being relaxed and assertive, creating 4-6 million refugees direction EU chokes the whole system, and regresses or delays any attempt of NATO strategical improvement.
So pour Talisker while waiting for the West to start screaming “The Russians are coming!”.
Expect a spectacle.

Posted by: whirlX | Jan 2 2024 6:32 utc | 160

Allegedly 11 Kinzhals used in Kiev area, in addition to another massive missile attack all over the country. Nato target rich environment?

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 2 2024 6:52 utc | 162

“In early 2022 Russia declared that it doesn’t recognize patents and copyrights of enemy nations. However little has been done to actually use copied western tech. This is an area with huge potential. Russian industrialists must invest in copycat industries replicating US and US allies’ products and processes.”
Original thinking is better if you have an educated and capable population. By all means copy what is worth copying, but better invent differently. This was done by the Germans in WWII, and it resulted in some truly exceptional developments. Was it not for the Germans the space age would not have developed as fast as it did. And the jet engine would have been far behind. And these are just a few examples.

Posted by: g wiltek | Jan 2 2024 6:59 utc | 164

One of the videos from Kiev, looks like multiple successive explosions. Maybe SAM system cooking off?
https://t.me/NovichokRossiya/44235

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 2 2024 7:17 utc | 166

The Forbes article about Avdeevka is quite interesting.
Killing Russians by the truckload
Now I can already foresee the answers that will pour in. Propaganda ! Cope ! Pulp fiction by some American journos trying to pump Ukraine up !
However this article is corroborated by several other pieces of evidence which, taken together, form a coherent picture without a credible alternative (besides the tired, general tropes about Ukraine mobilizing special needs people or being outgunned 7 to 1).
– Dima, rather pro-Russian, has acknowledged serious losses by the Russians around Stepove and near the railway.
– Simplicius, also hardly an anti-Russian fanatic, recognizes that the FPV threat is serious and “near uncounterable” for now.
– Since end of October, the Russians have not made any meaningfull progress either in the north or the south of Avdeevka to close the pincers. However it is a fact that many pro-Russian bloggers, commenters or TG channels were buoyant at the time, going on a limb to predict an Avdeevka fall by the end of last year. To start with Dima, Weeb Union, and a smattering of YT channels which I strongly suspect have been created by Russian services or affiliates to generate a more information-friendly environment. Dima in particular has been particularly egregious, specializing in clickbait titles while being much more sober in his content. Par for the course I guess if you want to maintain followers headcount..
– Zelenski himself has made a trip to Avdeevka.
All these bloggers or youtubers constantly speak of advances without ever mentioning retreats. So the viewer is left to wonder why it’s now been 6 or 7 times the capture of Stepove has been triumphantly announced. It would seem, logically, that this means that at least 6 times the Ukrainians counter-attacked and chased the Russians away. Blasphemy ! Ukrainians are just 60-years old with no weapons and an acute shell hunger ! Inquiring minds are left before a riddle.
Now here also I can already hear this other, tired trope. “The Russians are just happy to sit where they are and transform Avdeevka into a killing field !”
The thing is, you see, this kind of trope is not borne out by geolocated videos or any, you know, actual evidence on the ground. These are just post-hoc rationalizations, often put out by the same people who the week before confidently predict that Russia will close the Avdeevka cauldron or merrily march to odessa, and who next week without a doubt will again go out on a limb if some random video shows Russian progressing 10 meters to the next treeline around Ocheretino.
It’s quite depressing actually. Not the Russian local defeats, which have to be expected in a war against a near-peer adversary, abundantly stocked up by Western arsenals. No, what’s depressing is seeing the absence of logic and echo chamber effect of pro-Russian commenters who stubbornly refuse to look at facts and continue clinging to sweet-sounding tales about invincible Russian heroes just mowing down 50+ years old and women without breaking a sweat.
Let’s ask another question which I have not seen asked anywhere in the pro-Russian blogosphere.
We have seen multiple videos of Bradley doing thunder runs on the perimeter of the coke plant. We have also seen videos of them hunting Russian troops around the railway. How come they can do it so confidently ? Don’t the Russians have total artillery superiority ? Where are the Ka-52s and their LMUR-Izdeliye ? Where are the vaunted Tornado-S (most furtive weapon system in history) ?
Two alternatives :
1) The Russians just enjoy getting killed on the battlefield and want to offer the Ukrainians a fair game by not employing their most advanced weapon systems.
2) The Ukrainians have a very strong AD network, have chased the Ka-52 away and destroyed a good part at Berdyansk, and of course do have a huge array of FPV drones with abundant supply. Judging by the facts on the ground, they have a slight advantage at Avdeevka, first evidence being the fact they have successfully held the russians in check for two months.
Now ask yourself honestly the question, which of these alternatives is the most realistic one ?

Posted by: Micron | Jan 2 2024 8:23 utc | 168

Now if you allow me to propose a contrarian viewpoint I will propose the following :
– Tales of Ukrainian despondency and shell hunger are for public consumption. In reality, the Ukrainians, with their american masters, are husbanding ammo and are concentrating it at strategic junctures. They are feeling a pinch, but it’s nowhere as bad as advertised and sufficient to repel Russians for a long time
– The narrative of Ukrainian funding running out is also bullshit. The deep state will find a way, you can bank on it. Do you think that they will simply throw up hands and let a 10-year investment go to waste ?
– The FPV threat alone ensures that Russians will not be able to make a breakthrough anywhere. As long as have they not found a mass, cheap answer, the only solution will be to slowly push out Ukie troops and hope to conquer land meter by meter. At the current rythm, it will take a decade.
– Western public will think as it’s told and will never seriously rebel against Ukrainian help. Taken relatively to economy size the necessary sums remain manageable. Even 25bil by quarter is manageable if Europe and the Usa pony up some cash. You can continue dreaming about the USD collapsing, but this has been regularly predicted since 2008, and, for now, ranks together with predictions of imminent Chinese collapse as the most consistently wrong forecasts over the next 15 years. Most people simply don’t understand how complex and tighly managed the system is.
I am willing to enter into 3 separate bets, for an amount of 50€ each, at 2:1 odds, that
1. Avdeevka will still be in Ukie hands by the 31st of march 2023
2. Russia will not advanced by more than 10 kilometers at any point of the front, relatively to the current LOC, by 30st of June 2024
3. Ukraine and its masters will not request a ceasefire and negotiations before 30st of June 2024.
Those are fairly generous terms. In fact, if you believe all the pro-Russian propaganda, I am almost sure to lose all 3 of them. If you are interested manifest yourself on this thread and we can exchange contacts and agree on a means of payment.

Posted by: Micron | Jan 2 2024 8:37 utc | 170

Posted by: Micron | Jan 2 2024 8:23 utc | 168
Well you can also ask yourself a question. Why am I relying on the internets and commentators, whose job is to lure you in, about facts on the ground? Am I maybe relying too much on anecdotal evidence they supply? Is it possible that I am – lightbulb moment – a consumer for these bloggers?
Because some commentators are brilliant and do have some insights. The best one (on the optimistic side) being simplicius, who at least makes a considerable effort to gather facts and analyse them. It *is* possible to generate some hard evidence out on the compilation of anecdotal one, and the work of simplicius demonstrates it ; I have been particulary impressed and convinced by his estimates around shell production and KIA numbers. It is not a coincidence that simplicius strikes a decidently prudent tone nowadays. I don’t think he has ever said recently that Russia would ever take Odessa for example, something which is absolutely out of this world but which is regularly trumpeted by confident commenters. Just because Russia has to, you know.
Well, I could also say that I will definitely be a billionnaire one day because I badly need cash, so it’s bound to happen. However, that’s not the way reality works. Just claiming something has to be doesn’t ensure it will be, I thought that this kind of belief was reserved to 5-years old and under.
Besides, I do not buy this other tired trope that military strategy is such a complex and difficult matter that we ‘umble profanes are unable to understand any of it. It’s a bit more nuanced than that.
You CAN actually understand and follow the strategy of a genius mind. It’s exactly the same as following pro sport ; you can appreciate the genius of a Federer and understand why he is (or was) dismantling his adversaries .You CAN understand, even if you’re just a journeyman footballer, why the top football teams are better than the rest and what their tactics are. You CAN follow a chess match between two world-class champions and understand a posteriori why they did what they did.
Military strategy is no different. It is possible to a layman to understand why Napoléon, Manstein or Turenne were brilliant. What we cannot do is conceive such strategies or lead an army corps, but if you have a working brain and a good grasp of logics you will be able to decipher what they were trying to do. Claiming otherwise, as Martyanov is fond of doing, is just mumbo-jumbo, just like the Covid grand priests who were busy three years ago explaining us not to trust our lying eyes and basic sense of logic.

Also, of course there are cheerleaders on each side. It is a coping mechanism for something that is truly traumatic to witness. But not everyone does that.
Ukraine is supplied by half the world. Of course they will fight back competently, as long as there is money. Russia says itself that supplying Ukraine with money and equipment is just prolonging the conflict.
That the Russians cant take Avdeevka or any other city is exactly because of that. It is a real war, not an internet simulacrum.
Posted by: alek_a | Jan 2 2024 8:36 utc | 169
What you say is true. However there is too much fact-free fluff abounding on these threads, with people just happy retreating in their fantasy world and dreaming about the invincible Russian army just taking its time on the battlefield and enjoying it all the way while Ukrainians sit there shivering and in the dark, like lambs to the slaughter. You may laugh but this type of narratives has truly taken hold of a lot of times and cost us all (including me) a lot of time before slowly understanding that we were led on.

Posted by: Micron | Jan 2 2024 8:50 utc | 172

Posted by: Micron | Jan 2 2024 8:37 utc | 170
Hmm well Zaluzhny thought he could hold Avdeevka for 3 months so bet 1 is too close to call.
I am sure you will lose bet 2, but I can’t be bothered to arrange terms 😀
Bet 3 is also too close to call.

Posted by: Tim | Jan 2 2024 8:54 utc | 174

Hmm well Zaluzhny thought he could hold Avdeevka for 3 months
Posted by: Tim | Jan 2 2024 8:54 utc | 174
He also has “shot down” all 10 (ten!) hypersonics today and it’s not even noon yet. And all drones. Be sure to switch to cnn later today, it’ll be hilarious to hear them parrot the “absolute truth”!
And there must be something wrong with the retards, the internet today is full of explosion videos from Kiev. They’ve lost control on the internet censorship or what?

Posted by: rk | Jan 2 2024 9:42 utc | 176

They’ve lost control on the internet censorship or what?
Posted by: rk | Jan 2 2024 9:42 utc | 176
—
Blame it on mobilization.

Posted by: too scents | Jan 2 2024 9:51 utc | 178

…. Drones are not wonder-weapons, they are just remote versions of existing weapons or platforms.
Posted by: Milites | Jan 1 2024 21:53 utc | 137
Precisely.
Pushing forward one’s own range of action while pulling back one’s own personnel. Every missed or overlooked opportunity to be counted in the lives and limbs of one’s own guys.
Being in direct competition with drones, infantrymen seem to have the keenest understanding of the matter

Posted by: anon2020 | Jan 2 2024 9:56 utc | 180

Video of Kinzhal hitting a target with a red-hot cone, debunking
a) Kiev shot down 10 / 10 Kinzhals
b) Kinzhal goes below hypersonic when re-entering atmosphere. It will bleed off some speed but it is still hypersonic
and confirming
c) Nato has nothing that can track or shoot it down
https://twitter.com/simpatico771

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 2 2024 10:10 utc | 182

@dreaming about the invincible Russian army just taking its time on the battlefield and enjoying it all the way while Ukrainians sit there shivering and in the dark, like lambs to the slaughter. You may laugh but this type of narratives has truly taken hold of a lot of times and cost us all (including me) a lot of time before slowly understanding that we were led on.
Posted by: Micron | Jan 2 2024 8:50 utc | 172
The only problem with your always sad attempts to write a few words with logic is that there is NO Russian army in Ukr, only some unlucky 5 soldiers that can only move when the enemy is completely dead and some medieval generals which cause more problems than they solve.
You conveniently “forget” the smo remains is only some (embarrassing) police action, with questionable results so far. If you ask me, I would keep a forever war outside the borders. I’m sure the smo will end relatively soon, 1-2 years, followed by normal war and complete destruction of what remains of Ukr at that moment and any nato country that will kamikaze next. With an appropriate amount of troops, like 500k or so. Then repeat, again and again. The path EU took will surely bring their own multiple Gazas and forever wars but inside their countries this time. Start preparing little Micron.

Posted by: rk | Jan 2 2024 10:17 utc | 184

by Micron | Jan 2 2024 8:23 utc | 168
Yes. Ask yourself how much info coming from the front-lines is manipulated and filtered?
Then let us assume that we know around 20-30% of what is really going on is augmented with different quality of an expertise by multiple commentators, sofa generals, tube grafters and such.
So it is hard to call it reliable info, is it? So much stuff repeated, old video posted under new etc.
It is all together a salad with a very difficult task of separating vinaigrette from leaves. The front-line is 1200 km long, so do not believe the hype. Small tactical defeats do not have any impact on a overall combat protocol.
I have seen some Russian defeats, but it happens not so often and it is not spectacular as a reason for any alarm.
Crossing the river near Sieversk ended in total defeat for Russians, as they were shelled for 3 hours losing pontoon crossing and some equipment and people. Mistake like that never happened again. Same as with everything else. The war is a two way communication usually. Ratio is still at least 10:1 in RF’s gain at around everything destroyed. It is not getting better for Ukrainians and it never will.
Soon the discussion starts on how many missiles are there with Russians and how much do they have left.
That is top trolling from RF, mind you.

Posted by: whirlX | Jan 2 2024 11:04 utc | 186

Posted by: Micron | Jan 2 2024 8:37 utc | 170
Hmm well Zaluzhny thought he could hold Avdeevka for 3 months so bet 1 is too close to call.
I am sure you will lose bet 2, but I can’t be bothered to arrange terms 😀
Bet 3 is also too close to call.
Posted by: Tim | Jan 2 2024 8:54 utc | 174
Well that makes it 0/3. Anyone else ? Come on. It’s easy money isn’t it ?

Posted by: Micron | Jan 2 2024 11:45 utc | 188

Yes. Ask yourself how much info coming from the front-lines is manipulated and filtered?
Then let us assume that we know around 20-30% of what is really going on is augmented with different quality of an expertise by multiple commentators, sofa generals, tube grafters and such.
So it is hard to call it reliable info, is it? So much stuff repeated, old video posted under new etc.
Yes and no. What you say is true when looking at short-term events. Over the span of one or two weeks, the level of bullshit is so off the scales that it’s very hard to predict anything or state anything of value.
However when sufficien history has accumulated and you have a few months behind your belt, then some facts cannot be disputed anymore.
For instance it’s a fact that Russia hasn’t conquered Avdiivka, in 3 months of fighting. This cannot be disputed. It also cannot be disputed that they are suffering losses, which are not catastrophic but serious. Conversely, it can be stated with great confidence that Russia would have *liked* to conquer Avdiivka in less than 3 months. The resources they have invested is ample evidence of that.
The inescapable conclusion is that Ukraine + NATO is a worthy adversary, capable of interdicting an area 10 kms away from Donetsk and making life sufficiently difficult for the Russian army that they cannot capture a serious stronghold, but not really such a massive one. If they need 6 or 9 months to capture Avdeevka, how many months / years will they need just to reach the outskirts of Kramatorsk ?
Look it’s easy to say “war is difficult… Russians are progressing methodically.. Blah blah blah..” But the fact of the matter is that most pro-Russian bloggers did expect Russia to go quicker. Just to take this blog, I do remember very well bernhard predicting multiple times, after the fall of Popasna and after the fall of Bakhmut, that Russia would now go faster as it had irremediably pierced Ukraine’s second line of defense. Well here we are 6 months later, and as predicted by absolutely no one except – surprise ! – some well-known doomers like Slavskiy, Russia has not converted its Bakhmut or Popasna gains into something really meaningful.
It is all together a salad with a very difficult task of separating vinaigrette from leaves. The front-line is 1200 km long, so do not believe the hype. Small tactical defeats do not have any impact on a overall combat protocol.
I have seen some Russian defeats, but it happens not so often and it is not spectacular as a reason for any alarm.
Crossing the river near Sieversk ended in total defeat for Russians, as they were shelled for 3 hours losing pontoon crossing and some equipment and people. Mistake like that never happened again. Same as with everything else. The war is a two way communication usually. Ratio is still at least 10:1 in RF’s gain at around everything destroyed. It is not getting better for Ukrainians and it never will.
Soon the discussion starts on how many missiles are there with Russians and how much do they have left.
That is top trolling from RF, mind you.
Posted by: whirlX | Jan 2 2024 11:04 utc | 186
People have been bandying about these 10:1 ratios and 7:1 artillery advantages for some time. They may be true, but they have no bearing on the actual duration of the conflict. What history teaches us is that, as long as supplies are coming, countries can take extraordinary amounts of losses if they are willing to fight. And what is absolutely certain is that Ukraine does have safe and secure supply lines. And the reality on the ground proves that Ukraine is able to defend or delay Russian advances quite efficiently.

Posted by: Micron | Jan 2 2024 11:59 utc | 190

Posted by: Micron | Jan 2 2024 11:49 utc | 189
———————————————–
The conflict is undoubtedly a conflict that was engineered by NATO with the aim of weakening and disabling the Russian Federation.
NATO is the military arm of American foreign policy in Europe.
Ukraine is therefore being sacrificed as the proxy for America’s ongoing quest for international military domination of the international theatre.
SACRIFICE is the operative word here.
Ukraine has been used and abused as America’s proxy, with enormous loss of Ukrainian life and the destruction of Ukraine’s already weak economy.
Thanks USA ……. NOT

Posted by: Engineer-John | Jan 2 2024 12:06 utc | 192

Proper link.
…
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 2 2024 10:11 utc | 183
Indeed it is, the nose looks to be white hot, what a sight.
Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 2 2024 6:09 utc | 158
Genuine clarity there.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jan 2 2024 12:32 utc | 194

Dima says that Ukraine is in very difficult situation but in the same time he is talking about huge Russian losses at the front line.
How to understand that? Sometimes I do not understand Dima.
I think Ukraine is still very strong. Vietnam was also bombed and it won.
There are so many people in Ukraine willing to die, just to feel western love.

Posted by: zorge | Jan 2 2024 12:56 utc | 196

Posted by: zorge | Jan 2 2024 12:56 utc | 196
This “western love“ is quite suicidal. Is that another one of those western values?

Posted by: Justpassinby | Jan 2 2024 13:01 utc | 198

What is unusual in the destruction of the HIMARS MLRS in the DPR: analysis of the Military Chronicle
On January 1, a video appeared in which the M142 HIMARS installation comes under fire from the artillery of the Russian Armed Forces during counter-battery fighting. The exact date of the event is unknown, but the record allows us to make a number of important observations.
What?
As in numerous cases with the destruction of radars, air defense systems and other equipment, HIMARS is under the surveillance of Russian drones. There is no doubt that the launcher was detected in advance and was accompanied by observation equipment. In order to increase the accuracy of destruction, the launcher crew was allowed to stop, turn into a combat position and make a shot, after which a blow was struck.
What’s so unusual about destruction?
The place where the HIMARS crew arrives to fire a salvo is only 11.5 km south of Kostiantynivka. The defeat takes place near the H20 highway, along which the launcher, apparently, arrived for firing. The destruction site is located approximately 20 km from the LBS. Such an insignificant distance suggests that the HIMARS MLRS, which has long been positioned as an “elusive strategic-level weapon,” had to be transferred almost close to the front line. It is possible that in this way the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to increase the distance firing in order to reach some important target in the rear of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. However, in the process, the installation was discovered and came under counter-battery fire. Presumably, HIMARS came under fire from the 9K515 Tornado-S MLRS. Given the characteristics of the Tornado-S rockets, the HIMARS could have been hit by a 9M544 cluster projectile. It includes 552 shaped charge fragmentation submunitions, and therefore there is a high probability that the HIMARS installation was destroyed along with the crew or at least seriously damaged, probably to the point of losing combat capability.
What else is important to note?
It is important to note that HIMARS was used during the day. Usually, the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not take the risk of operating during daylight hours, and perhaps this indicates special circumstances that required risking such a valuable fire weapon as the scarce Western-made MLRS. In the video, HIMARS launches only one missile. Volleys in full packages from the Armed Forces of Ukraine have not been recorded for a long time. Perhaps the need to conserve ammunition and the reluctance to stay in one place for a long time have an effect.
Earlier, the Military Chronicle said that for the same tasks, self-propelled artillery produced by the United States and NATO countries began to be transferred closer to the front line, and the natural result of this decision was an increase in losses of this type of armored vehicles.
militarychronicles

Posted by: chop | Jan 2 2024 13:28 utc | 200