Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Back to Main
December 24, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-316
Comments
NYT weekend report “Putin is ready to make a deal, things are going so bad for him, freezing the conflict is right around the corner”
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Dec 24 2023 12:44 utc | 1
With hindsight, the plan must have been something like this:
Let Ukraine keep Russia occupied. Maybe with help of the Europeans.
With Russia occupied, the US can focus on China, which is where the real challenge is.
Whether Ukraine wins or loses does not matter; as long as Ukraine keeps Russia busy.
Posted by: Passerby | Dec 24 2023 12:58 utc | 2
NYT weekend report “Putin is ready to make a deal, things are going so bad for him, freezing the conflict is right around the corner”
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Dec 24 2023 12:44 utc | 1
As long as the us can spin “a victory” they’ll take it (but I don’t see how)
But with meat, shell (and barrel) shortage, and half baked defense lines things are not looking good for the AFU’s next months…
Posted by: Newbie | Dec 24 2023 13:01 utc | 3
The plan was regime change in Russia and then break it up. They finally gave up, at least for now, when their Prighozin operation failed. There is no plan B except desperate attempt to prevent NATO and EU and USD complete collapse. The western dumb asses put all their chips on the table. The worst bet in history.
Posted by: Sally | Dec 24 2023 13:07 utc | 4
@4 They finally gave up, at least for now, when their Prighozin operation failed.
I agree that the Bay of Prigz failure was an inflection point. But I suspect there is a plan B which is small terror ops in the ruskie heartland to annoy Putin and provide talking points to NGOs worldwide. The ops will be attributed on Pluky Ukie Freedom Fighters who deserve our continuing support but will in fact be paid terrorist of many nationalities. Dugina is an example of the next phase.
Posted by: countrumford | Dec 24 2023 13:41 utc | 5
NYT weekend report “Putin is ready to make a deal, things are going so bad for him, freezing the conflict is right around the corner”
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Dec 24 2023 12:44 utc | 1
The West feels that Russia cannot continue with this war. Russian oligarchs want their vacations on Toscanam
Posted by: zorge | Dec 24 2023 14:02 utc | 6
@5 The ops will be attributed on Pluky Ukie Freedom Fighters….
With Ukraine failure, all those not “defeated” Ukronazis might use the open US border to do the same small terror ops in US too and it is too easy for them to do it in EU. They did expect unconditional support, similar to what they expected from Germany in WWII. They have no loyalties to anyone, including their own people, only sheer hate, so anything goes.
Posted by: Vania | Dec 24 2023 14:06 utc | 7
Putin Quietly Signals He Is Open to a Cease-Fire in Ukraine – Dec 23, 2023 – New York Times
Worth the read even though you may end up gagging on the propaganda by the NYT. Putin is weak, Putin wants a deal, photos of alleged dead Russians throughout the narrative.
THe flight from Moscow direct to D.C. might have been a negotiation, but I doubt it. Maybe likely a deal to remove Zelensky, since he is intractable in his demand that Russia retreat, pay reparations, and be tried as war criminals. Zelensky is the problem for Washington and the world. $1.20 for a bullet might resolve the issue.
Posted by: madmarc | Dec 24 2023 14:19 utc | 8
With 600k Ukrainian troops still on the battlefield I could see this lasting for at least another 2 years. As they move to defensive positions with cluster munitions and drones. Unless, they decide to surrender in the meantime.
MacGregor and Ritter were wrong saying it would be over by the Autumn.
Anyhoo,
Hope you all have a great break regardless of your religion. Spend as much time as you can with your friends, loved ones and families and share the simple things in life.
Take a break from the shitshow for a while it is guaranteed to still be there when you come back. We can all but hope for a better and more just world in 2024.
🙂
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Dec 24 2023 14:23 utc | 9
The plan was regime change in Russia and then break it up. They finally gave up, at least for now, when their Prighozin operation failed. There is no plan B except desperate attempt to prevent NATO and EU and USD complete collapse. The western dumb asses put all their chips on the table. The worst bet in history.
Posted by: Sally | Dec 24 2023 13:07 utc | 4
There is zero evidence that the “Prigozhin operation” was a Western-puppeteered regime change attempt.
Wagner is thought to be a GRU creation, and the GRU is thought to be one of the strongholds of true patriotism in the Russian ruling structure.
So it may well have been the exact opposite — an attempt at regime change so that another grand betrayal is prevented. We don’t know, none of us here has inside information.
But when/if Putin does a Minsk-3/Istanbul-2, that will support that second alternative hypothesis.
Notice how the patriotic dissenting voices were all silenced this summer. Strelkov is still in jail, all the people in the Angry Patriots organization have gone quiet (after several were arrested too), and the mil-bloggers have toned down dissent to pretty much zero. I barely see any prominent criticism towards how the war is fought inside Russia nowadays, which very much wasn’t the case six months ago. Then you also have Surovikin being dismissed just when Ukraine was on its knees with the missile strike campaign last winter (which then stopped, resumed briefly in May-June to disrupt the offensive, then stopped again, almost completely so for the last three months), then entirely removed from command, as were several other prominent patriotic-minded generals who protested too much about a lot of stuff.
What does that look like? Like the bear being poised to spring into action and tear its enemies apart or like another dogovornyak coming?
On the positive side, there is a real military build up, and the West has made its intentions so abundantly clear that one would think even the traitors in the Kremlin would have seen the light by now. But then why suppress the patriotic voices instead of using them to rally society around maximalist goals?
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Dec 24 2023 14:52 utc | 10
NYT weekend report “Putin is ready to make a deal, things are going so bad for him, freezing the conflict is right around the corner”
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Dec 24 2023 12:44 utc | 1
Consider the source. We can be certain it’s not true.
Posted by: Honzo | Dec 24 2023 15:18 utc | 11
With hindsight, the plan must have been something like this:
Let Ukraine keep Russia occupied. Maybe with help of the Europeans.
With Russia occupied, the US can focus on China, which is where the real challenge is.
Whether Ukraine wins or loses does not matter; as long as Ukraine keeps Russia busy.
Posted by: Passerby | Dec 24 2023 12:58 utc | 2
The American plan was to crush the EU, de-industrialize Germany, and create an opportunity to shift industrial production back to the US in a profitable way. The US is winning that war very handily. Without the war in Ukraine, it would be difficult for the investor class to dump their bad debts without a system-wide crisis. That crisis is being contained by making it a European crisis, and the result is going to be that the US has more, more modern manufacturing paid for by European capital and expertise, and a captive EU market whose trade with China and Russia is severely restricted by purely political factors.
Some American planners no doubt hoped to bog Russia down and bleed it into instability, but open source data has made it clear for a long time that Russia- and China- have been building resilience into their economies, de-dollarizing, and building parallel instruments for international debt settlements and banking, so anyone with two neurons to rub together had to be aware of the strong possibility that the sanctions war would fail. The depth of that failure, and its rapidity, may have taken them by surprise, but it hasn’t mattered because the US is in such a dominant position re: Europe that they’ve simply violated their owns sanctions to keep the pain focused in the EU. America owns the EU political class, and those thieves and idiots have gone along with the American plan long enough that there’s no turning back. Hence, the US is ready to make ‘peace’ with Russia and focus on the usual dirty deeds done cheap.
Posted by: Honzo | Dec 24 2023 15:30 utc | 12
NYT weekend report “Putin is ready to make a deal, things are going so bad for him, freezing the conflict is right around the corner”
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Dec 24 2023 12:44 utc | 1
If “things are going so bad for him” then you can guarantee that things are going three times as bad for Zelensky. Thats a fact.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Dec 24 2023 16:24 utc | 13
The trolls are out in force, I see.
Are they so desperate, they repost dumb NYT stories and thing that will sway opinion?
Keep drinking your own neo-con Kool-Aid, you numpties!”
Posted by: scepticalSOB | Dec 24 2023 16:29 utc | 14
Vania 7: “They did expect unconditional support, similar to what they expected from Germany in WWII” – They expectet support like the Russians got from US in WWII –
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Dec 24 2023 16:47 utc | 15
The trolls are out in force, I see.
Are they so desperate, they repost dumb NYT stories and thing that will sway opinion?
Keep drinking your own neo-con Kool-Aid, you numpties!”
Posted by: scepticalSOB | Dec 24 2023 16:29 utc | 14
Amazing isn’t it? A great opportunity to study mass psychosis.
Posted by: Tomo | Dec 24 2023 16:48 utc | 16
Nato’s msm will say they “win” no matter what happens. The easiest thing to say is that ukros have stopped evil Putin from taking the “garden”, the democracy and so on.
Their mentality is perfectly explained by the Top Gun 2 promo. They said it’s only “practical effects”, “real planes” etc. The actors said so, the director, the studios, everyone. Some people with brain observed maybe hundreds of vfx artists in the credits, more than the rest combined. The truth is all planes were CGI. Some real training planes were used as helpers for artists but don’t appear in the film. Only in a few heavily edited scenes the actors were indeed in a cockpit but only their heads appeared in the film.
Also, even if Putin signs a Minsk 3, missiles will still fall in Russia until Kiev/Lvov looks like Bakhmut and/or Russia turns those regions into a Germany/Japan and blocks borders. If nato has proxies it’ll never end, proxies are really cheap, just think about clowns like Poland, Baltics, Romania, Finland etc.
Posted by: rk | Dec 24 2023 16:58 utc | 17
#1 Do you really believe Joo York Times?? last week VVP stated when Russian end up SMO….and it will be looooong and very cold winter in the 404 country….
Thanks God we have the EU and Mr. Borrell, he knows the truth – Interview Guardian 24.12.:
But he also warned that the European Union’s existence was at stake in Ukraine.
“Maybe this is the moment in which we have to look at the danger coming from a great power which threatens our democracy, which threatens Europe itself, not only Ukraine. And if we don’t change course rapidly, if we don’t mobilise all our capacities, it will let Putin win the war in Ukraine. Similarly If we are not able to stop the tragedy which is happening in Gaza, I think our project will be very much damaged.
skip past newsletter promotion
“The important thing is what we can do in order to avoid Russia winning the war. What are we ready to do? Are we really ready to do everything it takes? This is the question that we have to put ourselves…
“Putin cannot be satisfied with a piece of Ukraine and to let the rest of Ukraine belong to the European Union, but he cannot be satisfied with a limited territorial victory. He will not give up the war, especially not before the American election, which may present him with a much more favourable scenario. So we must prepare for a conflict of high intensity for a long time,” Borrell said.
“Putin has decided to continue the war until the final victory,” he said.
“[Russia’s] success is dependent on bringing to the battlefield as many people as they can. They have at this time the greatest number of deaths, of casualties in the battlefield, in the presence of the human reserve. There were 150,000 people massed on the Ukrainian border in February. There are 450,000 now so three times more.”
At the same time he said Putin “had been wrong about the capacity of his army. He was wrong about the capacity of the Ukrainian resistance. He was wrong about the will of the European Union. He was wrong about the strength of the transatlantic alliance. But he is still there. He is still willing to fight, to let his people die, so that his army and his people suffer, because he has no reverse.”
He claimed: “Russia has never been able to become a nation. It was always an empire with the tsar, with the Soviets, and now with Putin. It is a constant of Russia, and its political identity, and as a result a threat to his neighbours – and particularly to us.”
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Dec 24 2023 17:20 utc | 19
I agree that this war is not just about depopulating Ukraine for Blackrock, and destroying Russia for US capital.
If you look at the think tanks “Let’s you and him fight” plans for this, they anticipate the war spilling out into Europe, and they are fine with that. It’s part of the plan.
Russia out, US in, and Germany down. Well, Germany is down now, and the US is directly responsible. It is clear that that was part of the plan. Moving German industry to the US makes it a win/win situation for the US ruling class.
If Russia attacks Europe, all the better for the US. Remember that Truman openly advocated the destruction of both Germany and the USSR in 1942.
And none of this depends on who is president. The president is a puppet, selected and placed by the real owners, and the “election” is merely a circus performed to distract and divide the masses.
So no, trying to “analyze” current events by tying them to the election is not helpful.
Posted by: wagelaborer | Dec 24 2023 17:22 utc | 20
Is the wrecked Nordstream gas pipe still open and spewing gas into the environs?
Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Dec 24 2023 17:29 utc | 21
Lol at the spin by the NYT.
President Putin as always maintains a long list of Russia’s security needs, and as always maintains he’d have discussions with those willing to honestly and seriously negotiate.
Yadda Yadda Yadda, the real story here is that the NYT has been tasked with creating a narrative so that the uniparty loyalists might more easily believe what they’re being told, rather than what the news from the front decidedly indicates.
Russia has lost, and Putin has stepped forward, begging cup in hand. He’ll be forced to take off the hands of Ukraine the half of it which has always been full of troublemakers, and which provides less than it takes. Good riddance, and the joke is on him!
Six months from now this fiction they’re peddling will be memoryholed, and uniparty members will be fed a new one, that Putin has been defeated from taking all of Ukraine, and then moving into the rest of Europe.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Dec 24 2023 17:34 utc | 22
wagelaborer 20: But Russia and China only have one enemy and the means to bring him down. The Europeans are completely insignificant militarily and morally. As soon as the US begins to falter, it will kneel on a pilgrimage to Moscow and Beijing and declare how terribly it has suffered under American occupation…
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Dec 24 2023 17:34 utc | 23
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/47045
🗞 The Russian army destroyed NASAMS and Crotale-NG air defense systems, aircraft and ammunition depots at the Starokonstantinov airfield in the Khmelnitsky region – Russian Ministry of Defense
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/96472
⚓️ Admiral Nakhimov: What to know about Russia’s carrier-killer battlecruiser upgrade
Russia’s Admiral Nakhimov, a nuclear-powered battlecruiser, is nearing the end of a major upgrade. Mikhail Budnichenko of Sevmash highlighted its advanced weaponry, including long-range precision, air defense and antisubmarine systems. The cruiser will be armed with Kalibr, Onyx and Zircon offensive missile systems, along with S-350 Poliment-Redut and Pantsir-M air defense systems. It will also feature Packet-NK and Otvet antisubmarine missile systems. With 176 vertical launch tubes, the ship is designed for a mix of anti-surface and anti-air missiles, prominently featuring Zircon hypersonic missiles.
As one of two Orlan-class cruisers, the Admiral Nakhimov’s return to service will mark a significant advancement in Russia’s naval power. The modernized Nakhimov represents a substantial enhancement of maritime combat capability, particularly with its hypersonic missile arsenal.
Posted by: anon2020 | Dec 24 2023 17:34 utc | 24
Chaka Khagan@21
The three broken pipes have been sealed and “mothballed”. They could be repaired but no prospects of that at the moment.
Posted by: the pessimist | Dec 24 2023 17:39 utc | 25
The West feels that Russia cannot continue with this war. Russian oligarchs want their vacations on Toscanam
Posted by: zorge | Dec 24 2023 14:02 utc | 6
…….
You are silly, when are you going to realize that being stupid Ukie and projecting your lies is not working here?
Posted by: Preki | Dec 24 2023 17:45 utc | 26
If Russia attacks Europe, all the better for the US. Remember that Truman openly advocated the destruction of both Germany and the USSR in 1942.
Posted by: wagelaborer | Dec 24 2023 17:22 utc | 20
I see no reason to believe that Russia will ‘attack’ Europe besides, perhaps, some punitive actions if Europe attacks Russia, and even that will be as asymmetric as possible. It’s also unlikely that even the minions leading European countries in America’s interest will really put their own lives and treasure on the block after Ukraine collapses. All this ‘total war’ yammer is just to put their own populations in a frame of mind where they are so afraid of Russia that they won’t throw their current leadership out. From the point of view of the European satraps of the American Empire, the only way to retain any kind of power is to have a COLD war with Russia. Without the resources of Russia, the middle east, and the global south generally, it will be cold indeed in Europe.
Posted by: Honzo | Dec 24 2023 17:48 utc | 27
Posted by: scepticalSOB | Dec 24 2023 16:29 utc | 14
################
All the incompetents have are lies and fantasies.
The reality that they are such inferior creatures is too terrifying for them to confront.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 24 2023 17:56 utc | 28
There doesn’t seem to be a reliable source on this so take it or leave it. A similar ambush happened back in May so hopefully that time has been spent working on a low cost booster to extend the stand-off range of glide bombs.
https://t.me/NovichokRossiya/43608
Objectively, at the moment the most long-range SAM of the Khokhls is Patriot. There are missiles for it (unlike missiles for the old S-300 also in service with the Khokhls), there are also zips, there are also trained crews.
Back in May it became clear that in the case of this SAM, the issue of supplying unnecessary and low-powered shit to it does not work. It is supplied with missiles of the most recent modifications. The longest-range modifications. Their range is enough to cover the range of UMPKs from the altitudes from which the planes operate.
For some reason, jammers specially designed to counteract this complex, which do not completely exclude its work, but significantly reduce the range of its work, did not work. At least they should have. Maybe they were not there at all, maybe they were ineffective, I don’t know.
AWACS should also be interfered with, for the same purpose, since we can’t shoot them down.
It is also clear that the Khokhls continue to use installation of SAMs on railway platforms. They did it for the first time back in March 22nd with Buks, which were put on both steam locomotives and lorries, now the move has reached Patriot. That’s to be expected.
I do not think that something radically change in the tactics of the VKS, we can not relax and do not need to fly template on the same routes, as well as need to complete the modes of operation of UMPK from the cabrization and from the Mountain with extremely low altitude.
And we must not stop teaching and learning.
https://t.me/NovichokRossiya/43605
👉👉 Ukrainian military in Krynki confirm, not a single Russian plane attacked their positions since the shooting down of the SU-34 (‘s)
Posted by: anon2020 | Dec 24 2023 18:04 utc | 29
Zelensky’s former assistant Arestovich proposes to unite Russia and Ukraine and file a class action lawsuit against the West:
“Now we will kill each other by hundreds, tens of thousands, for Avdiivka, Yar Hours, and more. And why? What do we get from this — both Russia and Ukraine? What do we gain by losing 20 thousand people killed in two district centers on both sides? What have we achieved in the historical sense? Did the uncles from the regional committees of Washington and Brussels like us, who stand around us and applaud, watching two monkeys with knives jump on each other? And why do we need this?
But there is another conversation with Putin. Putin needs to come and say: “Dear friends, Vladimir Vladimirovich! Let’s make peace with you? But we will conclude it in a particularly tricky way: we will file a class action lawsuit against the West, Ukraine and Russia together. And let’s say a wonderful thing: Guys! Let’s go…”[Alexey, the West owes us nothing. To no one — neither one nor the other] The West owes us everything! Trust me.” There he goes on to say that “we need to tell the West that the European security system is not working and we need to build a new security system taking into account all sides.”
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/breaking-down-thinktank-lands-latest/comment/45985263
Posted by: rpst | Dec 24 2023 18:07 utc | 30
Thanks God we have the EU and Mr. Borrell, he knows the truth – Interview Guardian 24.12.:
But he also warned that the European Union’s existence was at stake in Ukraine.
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Dec 24 2023 17:20 utc | 19
#############
The more melodramatic and hystrionic the elites become, the more people tend to tune them out.
I love it, a self-correcting mechanism.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 24 2023 18:20 utc | 31
Rumors Russia has fused thermobaric bombs with FPV drones. Fun times ahead for AFU.
Posted by: unimperator | Dec 24 2023 18:23 utc | 32
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Dec 24 2023 12:44 utc | 1
Why to report bullshit propaganda from the empire of lies?
Reading those fake news is bad for one’s mental health.
How about the Swiss initiative to enforce the Swiss neutrality?
Posted by: Naive | Dec 24 2023 18:40 utc | 33
Posted by: rpst | Dec 24 2023 18:07 utc | 30
Arestovich future president of Ukraine with Medvedchuk as PM?
Posted by: Naive | Dec 24 2023 18:42 utc | 34
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Front #Summary for 24 Dec 2023 by 19:49⚡️
🔹In #Kherson Direction, methodical nightly defeat of the AFU’s boat landing groups. Localised fighting for #Krynki. The powerful work of drones and artillery from the #Kherson coast is causing losses in the ranks of our forces.
🔹In #Zaporozhye Direction, our army continues to attack along the entire #Kopani – #Rabotino – #Novoprokopovka – #Verbovoye line. The most intense fighting is taking place near #Verbovoye, ours are retaking positions step by step. The AFU are trying to hold the lines. They even occasionally counterattack with small infantry groups. Judging by the intensity of shelling, the enemy’s hunger for shells is not noticeable so far.
🔹In #SouthDonetsk Direction, our artillery is working heavily in the area of #Novomikhaylovka. Our troops are also trying to advance on the ground, putting pressure on the village from three sides. Our military are attacking south of #Maryinka, as well as in the direction of #Pobeda and #Georgiyevka. AFU resources assess the situation in the #Maryinka sector as critical.
🔹In #Donetsk Direction, they say the same about the #Avdeyevka front. On the northern flank, fierce fighting continues for #Stepovoye. Our units are fighting both inside the village and in the landings on the northern and southern sides. No less serious fighting is taking place on the approaches to the Coke Plant. Our army continues to literally cover the territory of the plant with artillery. On the southern flank ours have an advance from #Vodyanoye towards #Pervomayskoye.
🔹In #Bakhmut Direction, we have successes near #Bogdanovka, where ours are advancing along the railway. To the west of #Khromovo, our military took control of the territory of the autodrome and the dairy farm, which have become strongholds of the AFU. Heavy fighting near #Krasnoye (#Ivanovskoye) and #Kleshcheyevka has not yet led to a positive result for our army.
🔹In #Svatovo Direction, positional battles in the #Serebryanskoye forestry are ongoing. Our army is trying not to lose the initiative and is attacking in the direction of #Yampolovka and #Terny.
Posted by: Down South | Dec 24 2023 18:59 utc | 35
I see no reason to believe that Russia will ‘attack’ Europe besides, perhaps, some punitive actions if Europe attacks Russia, and even that will be as asymmetric as possible.
Posted by: Honzo | Dec 24 2023 17:48 utc | 27
I agree. I was just giving my opinion opposed to the common barfly opinion that the US attack on Russia could be stopped by flattening Kiev, or bombing Poland.
As if!
Posted by: wagelaborer | Dec 24 2023 19:01 utc | 36
The West feels that Russia cannot continue with this war. Russian oligarchs want their vacations on Toscanam
Posted by: zorge | Dec 24 2023 14:02 utc | 6
And here we have someone ready to swallow the western propaganda. Congratulations!
Posted by: Naive | Dec 24 2023 19:08 utc | 37
Posted by: wagelaborer | Dec 24 2023 19:01 utc | 36
US think tanks and Nato has already gamed their scenario how they can get Poland (and maybe Finland) fighting against Russia without US involvement. Probably 95 % of people in those countries think the article 5 is some kind of thing that protects them with the ‘threat of WW3 and apocalypse’. In reality, the world will continue turning over without either country, both Russia and US will continue existence while they will not. They will be stonewalled from article 5, which is written in voluntary fashion.
However, I’d wager were that to happen, Warsaw and Helsinki would get a bit different treatment than that of Kiev. Russia is building more precision weapons to deal with Nato bases and sites in both countries, but it doesn’t completely exclude use of nukes on Nato (US) controlled locations in those countries, like airfields and supply storages.
Posted by: unimperator | Dec 24 2023 19:11 utc | 38
The West feels that Russia cannot continue with this war. Russian oligarchs want their vacations on Toscanam
Posted by: zorge | Dec 24 2023 14:02 utc | 6
###############
It is a fatal error by the West that they assume that everyone has their values.
Thanks to the SMO, Russia has gotten a strong hold on the Oligarch problem. Only the West could defeat themselves so absolutely.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 24 2023 19:18 utc | 39
The question no one asks about Western society in particular : if any authority figure lies, will there be any consequence or punishment?
The overwhelming answer is no. Even worse are self serving motivations to lie, making it profitable, in one way or another.
So, Putin will be deposed in a black swan coup. He is desperate to negotiate a ceasefire. “Diplomats” say so. So do “intelligence sources”. Now, my only wonderment is, what’s the motive for lying? What’s the benefit? Just to keep things going for a while? Hard to see any strategy of any worth. OTOH, maybe no one is in charge and it’s just Russo-phobic noise.
It’s an argument from silence but some of us lived through assassination news like they were dime a dozen. Biden and Trump are still alive, the military can’t get recruits and debts are accelerating. If there was an evil cabal in charge, they would have ended this mess and taken charge. I’m going with ‘no one is in charge, anything goes’.
Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 24 2023 19:22 utc | 40
Ukraine Weekly Update. Happy Christmas to all who celebrate it. Maybe be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-b5f
Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Dec 24 2023 19:35 utc | 41
Something big happened in the Ukraine reddit. Previously, they only allowed happy and patriotic pro-Ukrainian news: “Ukraine is winning! Zelensky is truly a great leader! Ukraine must not merely drive Russia out of Ukraine but also free up south Russia, which is Ukrainian, and change the government of Russia!” Bit chevk this thread, about “what would have to change to convince you [Ukrainian reader] to join the Ukrainian army” (use browser translate feature of you don’t read Ukrainian):
https://www.reddit.com/r/Ukraine_UA/comments/18m3kge/
Posted by: anonposter | Dec 24 2023 19:43 utc | 42
All Ukrainians in Germany should know that Ukraine cannot do anything to you here.
On the one hand, the Basic Law recognises the right to conscientious objection.
There is no extradition treaty between GER and UKR, the EU would have to enforce it.
But the most important thing is this:
”
The General Equal Treatment Act (AGG) prohibits discrimination in connection with six different characteristics: Ethnic origin and racism – No one may be discriminated against on the basis of skin colour, language or origin. Gender – Women and men must be treated equally.”
https://de.connection-ev.org/article-2381
https://www.friedenskooperative.de/friedensforum/artikel/kriegsdienstverweigerung-und-desertion-in-den
https://taz.de/Nach-Flucht-vor-Wehrdienst-fuer-Assad/!5474432/
Or you refer to the inhumane conditions.
The Azov Brigade has the following training programme:
https://ab3.army/en/vacancies/
”
5. you go to the training centre for approximately 30 days.
6.
After completing the training, you set out for your unit.
”
The non-elite go straight to the front, without a 30-day course.
Ukrainian police officers, soldiers etc. have no sovereignty in Germany. German police officers would have to enforce anything.
https://www.nds-fluerat.org/infomaterial/asyl-und-aufenthaltsrecht-in-deutschland-ukraine/
Posted by: 600w | Dec 24 2023 19:45 utc | 43
If there was an evil cabal in charge, they would have ended this mess and taken charge. I’m going with ‘no one is in charge, anything goes’.
Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 24 2023 19:22 utc | 40
I suppose this depends on how you define ‘in charge.’ There is certainly a nested hierarchy of evil cabals directing events, but every single one of them has limits on its capabilities, as well as a hierarchy of conflicting interest. For a variety of reasons, from very particular profit opportunities, to the crisis of global capitalism and the remarkably bad blow back from the sanctions war, we see the various elements of ‘those in charge’ fighting among themselves, performing their obligations to their superiors incompetently, and so on. So, unity of command does not prevail in the west, but there are still lofty seats of power that cannot be overtly opposed within the Empire. That they can’t get all of their orders executed doesn’t mean that they aren’t ‘in charge.’ It just means that the real world always imposes constraints on the exercise of power.
Posted by: Honzo | Dec 24 2023 19:48 utc | 44
Several postings I made on this thread have mysteriously disappeared. It cannot have been done by b., so I’m open to ideas from the bar. Intel hackers?
Posted by: aristodemos | Dec 24 2023 19:53 utc | 45
Synchronicity strikes again. As I started posting, “Leave The World Behind” on Netflix just finished playing. The plot reads like What Would Really Happen if a competent cabal could get its act together (uh… massive false flag).
The other possibility here is Putin/Patroshev, etc. are playing with the heads of naive and hate filled “experts” in the West. Keep the delusions alive while Ukraine dies as a nation – the most secure outcome for Russia. I did once read that KGB once developed programs for preventing reaction in an adversary. Maybe way beyond Sun Tzu.
Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 24 2023 20:06 utc | 46
The West feels that Russia cannot continue with this war.
Posted by: zorge | Dec 24 2023 14:02 utc | 6
The Ministry of Truth has spoken. Here we have a perfect example of newspeak. Up is down. Black is white. Male is female.
Back in the real world: Russia’s (wartime) economy which has shrugged off unprecedented economic warfare (theft and sanctions) and which is producing record amounts of artillery shells, missiles, tanks, drones, and other military hardware for its well-staffed armed forces, is losing the war and cannot continue while the USA and “West” have cannibalized their industrial cores and can’t produce enough ammo to continue bombing a 40 square mile shanty town concentration camp into oblivion let alone keep more than 12 other lapdog countries engaged is losing, and losing badly.
Putin would be a fool to negotiate in good faith with these critically weakened cretinous two-faced bandits. The Americans are not agreement capable.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Dec 24 2023 20:25 utc | 47
Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 24 2023 20:06 utc | 46
“Leave the World Behind”, an Obama production, was probably the worst movie I’ve seen this year. Had they not decided to try convincing the audience that herds of deer care whether or not American civilization collapses around them, or that a mystery sonic energy weapon exists and is powerful enough to shatter glass, yet remains completely unseen, I may have given it the benefit of the doubt. But those are just a few examples of directorial/writing laziness in the film. And what’s with the 5 minute Kevin Bacon cameo, anyway? Isn’t there another up and coming actor who could have used the paycheck?
To anyone else thinking about watching that pile of garbage, save yourself the 2 hours. I regret losing them.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/monicamercuri/2023/12/20/president-obamas-involvement-in-leave-the-world-behind-explained/?sh=32345fff12b9
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Dec 24 2023 20:29 utc | 48
Clausewitz lived at a time when war was mainly the enobled class competeing over territory. His famous abhorism was: “War is simply the continuation of political intercourse with the addition of other means.” The thinking behind it was that if the two sides got together and both made a realistic assessment as to military strength, they could agree on a compramize that would produce about the same outcome they would get if they went to war Thus they could settle things without the war.
That is the problem we Americans have had. We overestimate ourselves or underestimate the enemy, and end up in an unnecessary war because the other side knows it can do better with the war.
Posted by: Jmaas | Dec 24 2023 21:14 utc | 49
What’s up with Arestovich?
I swear I saw something this morning in which he seemed to call for Ukraine to ‘join’ Russia and sue ‘the west’ for damages for all the destruction and death in Ukraine. I can’t find anything now- did it happen?
Posted by: Honzo | Dec 24 2023 21:34 utc | 50
“NYT weekend report “Putin is ready to make a deal, things are going so bad for him, freezing the conflict is right around the corner”
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Dec 24 2023 12:44 utc | 1″
On its face its stupid. If things were going so bad for Russia the Ukrainian side wouldn’t accept freezing as they would be the ones giving up their momentum.
Which is exactly opposite effect intended by a freeze which is to arrest Russian momentum.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Dec 24 2023 22:04 utc | 51
@50
https://t.me/ZandVchannel/93376
Only braindead naive people believe wester partners or small ukronazis brothers.
Arestovic is a Jewish US asset!
Posted by: SlowSoft | Dec 24 2023 22:11 utc | 52
UKRAINE 2:0
🇷🇸⚔️🇺🇸🇪🇺🇷🇸 The opposition wants to storm the Serbian Parliament building right now
The gendarmerie blocked the entrance to the Belgrade administration from the inside with shields. Supporters of the Serbia Against Violence bloc are demanding that the results of the last elections, which were won by Vučić’s coalition, be annulled.
Posted by: SlowSoft | Dec 24 2023 22:12 utc | 53
reply to 48
I think Netflix is producing quality easily equal to Hollywood (for all that means). Taste is subjective but Other People Out There are thinking about this stuff and providing warnings – and for all of us, that may be good. Maybe trust is so low that false flags are out of the question and only a plot device in current movies.
We have had enough talk about nuclear war triggered by Ukraine. It is deeply sad that Trump, Biden and NeoCons dominate the US but at least it’s better than oblivion – or many more years of amoral US hegemony.
Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 24 2023 22:16 utc | 54
Hope you all have a great break regardless of your religion. Spend as much time as you can with your friends, loved ones and families and share the simple things in life.
Take a break from the shitshow for a while it is guaranteed to still be there when you come back. We can all but hope for a better and more just world in 2024.
🙂
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Dec 24 2023 14:23 utc | 9
Good vibe, Echo. A Merry Christmas to you too.
However, Ritter wasn’t to off base in the prediction. It really is over, whether the Ukie leadership accepts it or not. They can send half a million starving pregnant women bearing cluster munitions all they want. They’re toast.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Dec 24 2023 22:33 utc | 55
re: aristodemos | Dec 24 2023 19:53 utc | 45
If your posts contained links, that could be the cause of them disappearing. I suggest you copy/save your post before actually posting. If it disappears, repeat post without link, just refer to source.
For what it’s worth, Merry Christmas to all, including the host, b.
Posted by: Perimetr | Dec 24 2023 22:51 utc | 56
To anyone else thinking about watching that pile of garbage, save yourself the 2 hours. I regret losing them.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/monicamercuri/2023/12/20/president-obamas-involvement-in-leave-the-world-behind-explained/?sh=32345fff12b9
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Dec 24 2023 20:29 utc | 48
You can probably take it a step further and just cancel Netflix. Since they started producing their own films it’s almost all thinly veiled democrat party propaganda. I dropped it in 2015.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Dec 24 2023 22:52 utc | 57
I think Netflix is producing quality easily equal to Hollywood (for all that means). Taste is subjective but Other People Out There are thinking about this stuff and providing warnings – and for all of us, that may be good. Maybe trust is so low that false flags are out of the question and only a plot device in current movies.
We have had enough talk about nuclear war triggered by Ukraine. It is deeply sad that Trump, Biden and NeoCons dominate the US but at least it’s better than oblivion – or many more years of amoral US hegemony.
Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 24 2023 22:16 utc | 54
It’s definitely producing quality equal to Hollywood. In other words pure imperialist shit.
Taste is subjective, but thinly veiled political propaganda for imperialism is objectively trash worthy only of slaves.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Dec 24 2023 22:55 utc | 58
Arestovic is a Jewish US asset!
Posted by: SlowSoft | Dec 24 2023 22:11 utc | 52
He could be an eskimo for all I care. If you’ve had any connection with the Ukronazis you should be barred from any position of leadership and be put on trial for war crimes, preferably with the same sentence as the Nuremberg trials.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Dec 24 2023 22:57 utc | 59
That is the problem we Americans have had. We overestimate ourselves or underestimate the enemy, and end up in an unnecessary war because the other side knows it can do better with the war.
Posted by: Jmaas | Dec 24 2023 21:14 utc | 49
You’re talking about the American ruling class. The vast majority of Americans are nothing like that.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Dec 24 2023 22:59 utc | 60
I wrote that the West feels that Russia cannot continue the war. Thst is the feeling. It can just be wrong, but that is adominant feeling.
I am not an Ukro troll.
Posted by: zorge | Dec 24 2023 23:03 utc | 61
I wrote that the West feels that Russia cannot continue the war. Thst is the feeling. It can just be wrong, but that is a dominant feeling.
I am not an Ukro troll.
Posted by: zorge | Dec 24 2023 23:03 utc | 62
Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 24 2023 22:16 utc | 54
Check out South Korea. They’re making some real art lately. Hollywood is dead to art, Netflix is the same shit, but without the theater.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Dec 24 2023 23:05 utc | 63
Re: Netflix – I can’t think of a quality film they’ve produced from start to finish. The recent “The Killer” from David Fincher (“Fight Club”, “7even”, etc.) was pretty good, but it initially started off as a Paramount project and Fincher moved it to Netflix somewhere after production started. And interestingly I viewed that flick as a subtle critique of American capitalism, in several ways really not that subtle. The excessive use of brand names, the cold, passionless way the assassins go about their business, the system of people underneath and above the killers facilitating their acts, commodification of labor, etc. I was pretty surprised not a lot of critics saw that, frankly. It was also a dig at US filmgoers who expect “John Wick” style assassin flicks with clear, easy to follow revenge motives and denouements. Fincher denied his audience those things and it was reflected in some ignorant negative reviews I saw. Kind of like Michael Haneke’s style (“Funny Games”).
Anyway, O/T – but I really don’t see anything positive in the Obama project. And yeah, Netflix is putting out Democrat (and Tory or Starmer Labour, IMO) party propaganda a lot of the time.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Dec 24 2023 23:12 utc | 64
anyone post this yet?
https://www.arcamax.com/currentnews/newsheadlines/s-3031437
Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said it uncovered an attempt by some officials to purchase artillery shells at inflated prices, revelations that came after Defense Minister Rustem Umerov pledged to weed out corruption in the military sphere.
One official was detained and others were dismissed from their posts as a result of the investigation, the ministry said in a statement.
The joint probe conducted by the State Security Service and General Prosecutor’s Office found that a group of officials led by the head of the department for ammunition production took payment on a contract for artillery shells that was above what was stipulated.
According to the statement on the Ministry’s website, a newly established agency of military purchases signed a revised contract that stipulated significantly cheaper prices. Nevertheless, the payment for the shells was made according to previous agreements draw up by the officials targeted in the probe and led to an overpayment of 1.5 billion hryvnia ($40 million).
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Dec 24 2023 23:19 utc | 65
What’s up with Arestovich?
Posted by: Honzo | Dec 24 2023 21:34 utc | 50
###############
An attention whore whose primary role is distraction, in my opinion.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 24 2023 23:20 utc | 66
Posted by: zorge | Dec 24 2023 23:03 utc | 61
###############
The West also believes that great Generals wear lipsticks and stockings.
Sick, degenerate losers.
What the West thinks is usually crazy and useless.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 24 2023 23:22 utc | 67
NYT weekend report “Putin is ready to make a deal, things are going so bad for him, freezing the conflict is right around the corner”
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Dec 24 2023 12:44 utc | 1
Consider the source. We can be certain it’s not true.
Posted by: Honzo | Dec 24 2023 15:18 utc | 11
As I stated to you in the other thread, we do know that Russia is amenable to negotiations. However, what the NYT is stating is happening isn’t negotiations, its diplomatic signaling, if its happening, a big if.
Russia isn’t going to stop fighting and then negotiate, they’re giving the US/Ukraine a choice – we can keep fighting you, or you can cut a deal with us. The terms of the deal are more costly to you the longer we fight. Your choice.
Likely, nothing will come of this in the short term, if Russia is signaling this. But it does lay the groundwork for a negotiated peace in the long term, once Ukraine and its backers give in.
Posted by: James M. | Dec 24 2023 23:46 utc | 68
The more melodramatic and hystrionic the elites become, the more people tend to tune them out.
I love it, a self-correcting mechanism.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 24 2023 18:20 utc | 31\
Really?
You are quite mistaken.
If your idea was in the least bit true very few people would have lined up for untested Covid jabs which is, of course, not the case.
Posted by: aristodemos | Dec 24 2023 19:53 utc | 45
Several postings I made on this thread have mysteriously disappeared. It cannot have been done by b., so I’m open to ideas from the bar. Intel hackers?
You were dreaming when you posted them!
MacGregor and Ritter were wrong saying it would be over by the Autumn.
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Dec 24 2023 14:23 utc | 9
They aren’t wrong. It is over – it’s now only a matter of how bad is the loss.
Posted by: Activist Potato | Dec 25 2023 1:08 utc | 71
This:
https://www.rt.com/russia/589526-arestovich-monoethnic-ukraine-dead/
Also interesting:
American living in Russia
https://youtu.be/uzBPd_eG8gY?si=07mhB79gBKVsJHNY
I wonder if US might as Putin for favor of a cease fire while they do regime change?
Posted by: jared | Dec 25 2023 1:32 utc | 72
Lots of speculation over the mystery flight from Moscow to DC. One very likely passenger if negotiations were indeed part of the reason would be Sergey Naryshkin, Russian’s Foreign Intelligence Service director. How would I know such a thing? On the 22nd, a meeting of Russia’s Security Council was held that was supposed to be attended by its “permanent members” according to the Kremlin readout that contained the roster of attendees, from which Naryshkin was missing. Naryskin is a hawk who earlier this month authored the lead article for his agency’s in-house journal that I translated, “SVR Chief Sergey Naryshkin: 2024 is the Year of Geopolitical Awakening”, with this being the main paragraph about Ukriane:
With regard to the situation in Ukraine, it can be expected that Western politicians, due to the objective impossibility of achieving a military victory over our country, will be to maintain the presence of the United States from the Mediterranean to the Caspian Seas. They will try to prolong the fighting and turn the Ukrainian conflict into a “second Afghanistan”, counting on our gradual depletion of potential in a grueling struggle. They will achieve this, as before, at the expense of a complex of economic and military-diplomatic measures, including sanctions that violate the norms of international law and the incessant supply of weapons and military equipment to Kiev. Nevertheless, there is a high probability that further support for the Kiev junta, especially given the increasing “toxicity” of the Ukrainian theme for the transatlantic unity and Western society as a whole, it will accelerate the decline of the international authority of the West. The further Ukraine goes, the more it will turn into a “black hole” that absorbs material and human resources. Eventually, the United States will try to arrange for itself a “second Vietnam”, which every new American administration will have to deal with until then, until a more or less sane person comes to power in Washington, who will have enough courage and resolve to shut up this “mouth”.
Combine that view with what’s been said recently by the top members of Russia’s government and it’s likely that Ukraine wasn’t the topic for discussion, if indeed a discussion occurred. Far more likely if a discussion happened it would be over Palestine, for that’s THE major conflict point that might escalate, not Ukraine. Naryshkin does discuss Palestine, the Arab world and much more as one would expect given his essay’s title. As for Ukraine, the negotiating is currently taking place on the battlefield.
Posted by: jared | Dec 25 2023 1:32 utc | 72
Well, as the meme says, ‘I know what 80 million Americans want for Christmas in 2024’.
Posted by: Milites | Dec 25 2023 2:05 utc | 74
Some videos for today.
Russian anti-drone unit in action on the Zaporozhye front:
https://rutube.ru/video/36820263e94697f00675645d5febd793/
Russian Msta-B howitzer pounds enemy position on the right bank of the Dnepr River in Kherson oblast:
https://rutube.ru/video/79abbcf07692f32fbfd429797436bb31/
Russian mortar team in action on the Zaporozhye front:
https://rutube.ru/video/692ecb983dbfa504551b8ef0550975bc/
Russian Mi-8 helicopter provides air support to infantry:
https://rutube.ru/video/27cce5c6e8250d101e715e4110d85c47/
Posted by: Nate | Dec 25 2023 2:08 utc | 75
@ Posted by: Milites | Dec 25 2023 2:05 utc | 74
Well, I think there is a growing Muslim demographic that may be willing to help with that.
Posted by: jared | Dec 25 2023 3:11 utc | 76
Leave the World Behind is fascist Maerican propaganda. A deceptive little story that appears to preach unity but actually prescribes unity only for Maericans so they can defeat external threats. The message is be afraid be afraid be afraid, Iran, Russia, China, Lions, Tigers, Bears. Only Demos and Repugs together can fight off these forces.
It is incoherent fascist fear mongering.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Dec 25 2023 3:11 utc | 77
I wrote that the West feels that Russia cannot continue the war
Noone accused Western strategists of strategy…and certainly not intelligence. These fools sniff their own farts and spin analysis from it. Garbage in, garbage out and all that.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Dec 25 2023 3:13 utc | 78
Contrarian as I am I attribute zero importance to that plane. If there’s any actual news concerning it or at the very least some halfway plausible juicy rumor then maybe I’ll change my tune but until then; nope.
There’s nothing important to talk about with the US. Even if there was or if the US has anything meaningful to say (extremely unlikely) they can send a letter (or a one time pad if they’re truly terrified) sealed with a diplomatic courier (zero customs or anything else) or simply use the still existing secure direct communication system. All of that works both ways.
Except for purposes related to the embassy and the UN there are no important people that are unimportant enough (!) to risk sending them to the US.
Little green men could simultaneously do some five-legged dancing on both the White House lawn and in the Red Square and it wouldn’t change a thing.
Two days and six hours doesn’t mean anything in particular either. Maybe they arrived early, maybe someone arrived late, maybe someone wanted to go shopping, maybe someone wanted to tease onlookers 😛
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Dec 25 2023 3:31 utc | 79
That is the problem we Americans have had. We overestimate ourselves or underestimate the enemy, and end up in an unnecessary war because the other side knows it can do better with the war.
Posted by: Jmaas | Dec 24 2023 21:14 utc | 49
You’re talking about the American ruling class. The vast majority of Americans are nothing like that.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Dec 24 2023 22:59 utc | 60
The vast majority of americans are dumb as cobs. The rapid downsizing of the “murican way of life is gonna be hillarious to behold. Eating grandma will not be out of the question.
Posted by: comrade simba | Dec 25 2023 5:28 utc | 80
Nazi Ukraine now celebrating the christmas of the Church of Rome instead of orthodox Constantinople is the latest propaganda win for the Holy Roman Empire.
A current headline in the oz government tabloid (ABC) that gets its world news from British Reuters.
“Ukrainian refugees away from home for second Christmas as celebrations move to December 25”
The brit elite have a fanatical hatred for Russia and Australia still being a brit colony is expected to follow suit. In the east European nations bordering Russia, the brits moved in very fast after the collapse of the soviet union. There influence/psyops operations there are I believe much stronger than that of the US. But US or UK, the influence operations caused those states to have a post soviet culture based on hatred of Russia.
Possibley they will be thrown against Russia as cannon fodder in an expanded war if the F-16 thing goes ahead, but regardless, the brits will continue running sabotage and terrorism operation in Russia. Russia has recreated SMERCH to deal with that but still the brits backed by the biden/obama faction will get some hits in.
Medvedev had the right idea I think. Use a Poseidon to drown the poxy little island.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 25 2023 5:47 utc | 81
That is the problem we Americans have had. We overestimate ourselves or underestimate the enemy, and end up in an unnecessary war because the other side knows it can do better with the war.
Jmaas | Dec 24 2023 21:14 utc | 49
I don’t think it’s only the elites, because really it has become a cultural thing deeply ingrained into the psyche. The US learnt nothing from Vietnam. Though some have tried to teach:
The Fog of War: Eleven Lessons from the Life of Robert S. McNamara
https://archive.org/details/TheFogOfWarElevenLessonsFromTheLifeOfRobertS.Mcnamara
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fog_of_War#The_Lessons_of_Vietnam
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Dec 25 2023 5:55 utc | 82
MacGregor and Ritter were wrong saying it would be over by the Autumn.
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Dec 24 2023 14:23 utc | 9
McGregor and Ritter initially said it would be over by the spring. Of 2022.
Ritter is now going on YouTube channels saying that the extensive Hamas tunnels make them unbeatable.
Posted by: Simon | Dec 25 2023 5:58 utc | 83
karlof1 | Dec 25 2023 1:49 utc | 73
Thanks for matching up Naryshkin’s absence from the security council with the plane trip.
From what Putin has publicly stated, Russia would be looking at Palestine as another battle/another front by/against the empire of lies. I read somewhere, a militia group in the Gibraltar region is threatening to shut down shipping to and from Israel through the straights of Gibraltar. Perhaps that will occur, perhaps not, but it lends a bit more support to my earlier thought that Russia,China, Iran strategy on the Palestine front is to use only military means by non state actors, giving the US little to strike back at. States pushing on the diplomatic front and non state actors using guerilla warfare type tactics in well thought out targeted actions.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 25 2023 6:09 utc | 84
There are no volunteers left in Ukraine who want to join the army – Major General of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Dmitry Marchenko for Deutsche Welle
“Those volunteers who wanted to voluntarily join the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in order to resist have ended,” he said. Therefore, TCC representatives are forced to go to apartments and the private sector in search of potential recruits, Marchenko believes.
He also stated that he supports lowering the age of mobilization from 25 years old, not 27. He says: on the Russian side, it is mainly young people who are fighting, who very quickly make up for their losses. Ukraine lags behind in this
https://t.me/MediaKiller2021/10776
We write about problems in Ukraine before it becomes mainstream.
Now everyone admits that there are almost no volunteers left. Nobody wants to go to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. That is why the authorities are forced to force men into the army at gunpoint.
The formula is simple. If there are no those who will die at zero, then those who are at the feeding trough in the rear will have to die and flee. That is why those in the rear at the trough will do everything to save themselves and their place.
At the same time, Zelensky understands that this will be a different army than in 2022. Morale is negative. The main fear of the authorities is that the front will collapse at one moment and everyone will run.
We are just waiting for the day when our insight becomes a reality.
Posted by: Down South | Dec 25 2023 8:10 utc | 85
Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President decided to build defensive structures through controlled structures, creating in this way a multi-level structure that will allow money laundering.
In fact, we are witnessing Big Construction 2.0 from the Office of the President on the case of the construction of fortifications, in which the military takes a secondary role. They will build their own, they will build at inflated prices.
They will take a long time to build, constantly increasing budgets and kickbacks. In the end, the whole story will end the same way as with bomb shelters and no-evil centers.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/20931
Posted by: Down South | Dec 25 2023 8:12 utc | 86
Oleh Soskin, former adviser to Leonid Kuchma, on what awaits Ukraine in 2024:
A whole group of countries will already oppose giving money to Ukraine. Therefore, there is no need to even open your lips. It is clear. All these events will have an extremely active influence on the beginning of the Civil War in Ukraine.
There is no money anyway, there is devaluation of the hryvnia, there will be inflation, food will start to disappear, the card system will start, there are no successes on the front, there are huge losses, there is a completely greedy top brass that has lost understanding of the situation, they will sell land to legal entities for cheap, give up to ten thousand hectares.
That is, complete bacchanalia will begin in Ukraine, complete. This is what we need to prepare for. The fact that now there is already a group of countries even in the EU that do not want to go the way that Zelensky and his entourage are proposing is very important.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/81159
Posted by: Down South | Dec 25 2023 8:20 utc | 87
Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 25 2023 1:49 utc | 73
Those are dark predictions by the SVR chief. But realistic.
The two blocks are just too powerful for a quick end. It is becoming a survival battle also for a part of the European elites, they are now openly admitting this. These progressive/neocon elites shall start acting from a position of fear because Russia means anti-everything they believe in (including their ideological supremacy). This will of course make things worse for all.
German ministers already propose a Ukraine tax.
The only thing is that these elites do not speak for the majority of Europeans, actually far from it. They only speak and act for their narrow clique.
Posted by: alek_a | Dec 25 2023 10:37 utc | 88
https://t.me/NovichokRossiya/43673
The Ukrainians did not shoot down any Su-30 or Su-34 yesterday or today.
Maybe they shot down some of their planes, I don’t know why I should feel sorry for them. But all our planes and helicopters are safe and sound.
👉 Fighterbomber
No way to tell if this is the fog of war clearing or the result of an order to toe the line. There was a previous ambush of the same type back on May 14th of this year so the true risk profile of glide bomb missions shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone with an interest in the matter.
Posted by: anon2020 | Dec 25 2023 10:46 utc | 89
That is the problem we Americans have had. We overestimate ourselves or underestimate the enemy, and end up in an unnecessary war because the other side knows it can do better with the war.
Jmaas | Dec 24 2023 21:14 utc | 49
The problem Americans have is that the USA sees everyone as a competitor, and no one as its equal; it equates competitors to enemies and dependants to slaves.
Posted by: snake | Dec 25 2023 11:26 utc | 90
McGregor and Ritter initially said it would be over by the spring. Of 2022.
Ritter is now going on YouTube channels saying that the extensive Hamas tunnels make them unbeatable.
Posted by: Simon | Dec 25 2023 5:58 utc | 83
Could and should have been.
But the fact that they were claiming it shows that they don’t have any inside info and totally discredits them. Otherwise they would have known the Kremlin did not prepare properly. We were all waiting for the second and third echelons to stream in and finish off the AFU, but those never came. Because they were never activated.
The Pentagon certainly knew it.
But Ritter and McGregor either didn’t know it or were playing some kind of game for who knows what purpose. Either way there is no point listening to them — they are effectively just talking too much about information that we all have access to and not providing anything new and useful. One should never talk confidently in public about things he does not know for sure. That makes him a a charlatan.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Dec 25 2023 11:52 utc | 91
The problem Americans have is that the USA sees everyone as a competitor, and no one as its equal; it equates competitors to enemies and dependants to slaves.
Posted by: snake | Dec 25 2023 11:26 utc | 90
Snake, a very good observation.
That is why the USA does not pause to consider the possibility of a win-win, which the world came close to during the ending of the Cold War, it always defaults to win-lose. And when nuclear weapons are on the table, a win-lose approach risks a lose-lose outcome.
Posted by: Al Batross | Dec 25 2023 12:06 utc | 92
“The opposition wants to storm the Serbian Parliament building right now
The gendarmerie blocked the entrance to the Belgrade administration from the inside with shields. Supporters of the Serbia Against Violence bloc are demanding that the results of the last elections, which were won by Vučić’s coalition, be annulled.”
Posted by: SlowSoft | Dec 24 2023 22:12 utc | 53
A reminder: Organizers of colour revolutions never sleep and never give up. They organized a successful colour revolution in Serbia in 2000 (first ever), but the results so far have not satisfied them. Hence continued attempts to bring in the correct bunch of corrupt traitors. The 2004 colour revolution (orange) in Ukraine also was a short-lived affair. A much more serious effort was launched in 2014, the results of which we are observing now. Any lessons learned? The response would probably be what’s a lesson?
Posted by: Pagan | Dec 25 2023 12:31 utc | 93
McGregor and Ritter initially said it would be over by the spring. Of 2022.
Ritter is now going on YouTube channels saying that the extensive Hamas tunnels make them unbeatable.
Posted by: Simon | Dec 25 2023 5:58 utc | 83
McGregor and Ritter’s big mistake is not leading with the disclaimer “all other things being equal” in their predictions.
You can’t very well make predictions about the Ukrainian army if they are constantly being raised from the dead by the USA and EU. We are now on the third re-built / NATO trained Ukrainian army … neither of those gentlemen could have predicted the decisions of western politicians that allowed for the defeated Ukrainian corpse to be reanimated at the expense of their own taxpayers.
Without massive western aid Ukraine wouldn’t have run out of fuel and ammo and couldn’t meet payroll of their civil servants by the summer of 2022.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Dec 25 2023 12:50 utc | 94
Re: Posted by: Echo Chamber | Dec 24 2023 14:23 utc | 9
With 600k Ukrainian troops still on the battlefield I could see this lasting for at least another 2 years. As they move to defensive positions with cluster munitions and drones. Unless, they decide to surrender in the meantime.
MacGregor and Ritter were wrong saying it would be over by the Autumn.
Yes, they were wrong – and they will KEEP BEING WRONG.
They have said the same “This war will be over in 3-6 months” hopium rubbish since February 2022! They will keep on with the same rubbish – it works to get them views!
My prediction is this conflict will continue until Q1 2025 – and at that point Putin will conclude a deal – no matter where the front lines are at that point.
My only hope is that Russia actually makes significant territorial gains by that time – including the entire Black Sea Coast and the East Bank of the Dnieper – That Should (& MUST) be a Minimum – however, whether that actually happens is yet to be seen.
At the snail’s pace of advances so far seen in the SMO, the likelihood is that those sort of territorial advances will never happen and a LOT of people at The Bar will be proven wrong and be left disappointed by the deal Putin does with a re-elected Biden or re-elected Trump.
I will also be disappointed if that is what happens, but I won’t be surprised – because I’ve been warning this will happen for well over a year.
The best predictor of future events (territorial advances) is past events (negligible territorial advances for 18 months+).
You have been warned of the sell-out to come in 12-15 months.
No doubt Orban is also be frustrated by this.
If there is no Russian land-bridge to Hungary Orban is stuck with Hungary in NATO and the EU. If there is no Russian land-bridge to Hungary, he is left with no choice but to stay within the EU & NATO rather than withdraw.
I’m sure Orban would be only too happy to withdraw from both the EU & NATO – if he is given a realistic choice and alternative – which he does not currently have.
Posted by: Julian | Dec 25 2023 13:09 utc | 95
Re: Posted by: Naive | Dec 24 2023 18:42 utc | 34
Arestovich future president of Ukraine with Medvedchuk as PM?
If you truly believe Arrestovich is a potential future President of Ukraine your handle name is appropriate.
Arrestovich is a snake – and can’t be trusted.
Posted by: Julian | Dec 25 2023 13:11 utc | 96
If there is no Russian land-bridge to Hungary Orban is stuck with Hungary in NATO and the EU. If there is no Russian land-bridge to Hungary, he is left with no choice but to stay within the EU & NATO rather than withdraw.
I’m sure Orban would be only too happy to withdraw from both the EU & NATO – if he is given a realistic choice and alternative – which he does not currently have.
Posted by: Julian | Dec 25 2023 13:09 utc | 95
The biggest suckers here are the Bulgarians and now the Armenians too. Both don’t have the geographic problem Hungary has, and both have a deep connection with Russia, both only existing thanks to Russia liberating/protecting them from the Turks. And both would greatly benefit economically from attaching themselves to Russia. And yet you see what they do.
At least Hungarian elites are thinking about Hungary’s interests, not just selling out to the West.
Also, Slovaks are screwed too if the current government decides to follow Hungary. They will also need that land bridge.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Dec 25 2023 13:17 utc | 97
The best predictor of future events (territorial advances) is past events (negligible territorial advances for 18 months+).
Posted by: Julian | Dec 25 2023 13:09 utc | 95
We can add repeated betrayal to the list of past events predicting the future. Minsk-1/2, then Istanbul.
The one thing that does give hope for a different outcome is that the Russian military build up is just too large (if the reports on it are true) for the plan to be to simply within the next 18 months hand over most of Ukraine to be a US colony forever.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Dec 25 2023 13:21 utc | 98
Shokin explains what happened
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Dec 24 2023 23:19 utc | 65
Here’s Shokin telling the story.
Bottom line, Biden forced Porky to get rid of him because Shokin was digging into Burisma and Hunter Biden.
Tom Q is right
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ot5IjSymjgI
Posted by: migueljose | Dec 25 2023 13:51 utc | 99
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Dec 25 2023 11:52 utc | 91
And addressed to other posters, Russia does not have the capability currently to wage anything more than the broad, small footprint, attrition strategy that it has adopted. Western ex-military commentators have been accurate in predicting the trajectory of the conflict, but not its timeframe. The former, because anyone who has a modicum of interest in military strategy saw that, once Russia weathered the initial six months, Ukraine was going to loose, without direct foreign intervention, which was already a non-starter (Zuckerberg isn’t spending 50 million dollars on his island hideaway, nor Gates spending on buying up farmland for them to risk it all being nuked). The later because their previous military experience had been when The Red Army legacy still cast a big shadow, what they failed to appreciate was that decades of underfunding had reduced their OPFOR to a pale shadow of its former capabilities. In fact, the Red Army was already going through the first stages of that decline, as it increasingly struggled to match the Western MIC’s output and the growing liberalisation of the society it depended on.
Talk of big arrow offensives was actually a testament of faith, by former opponents, in an enemy that no longer had those capabilities. Posters here are similarly optimistic, but believe the revitalised ‘Red Army’ is politically restrained by a mendacious leadership. All the evidence so far suggests that both approaches are based on a fallacious belief in the operational capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces and a denial about the true nature of the conflict. Russia is fighting a low-density, high-intensity campaign of attrition and incremental positional fighting because that’s the only realistic alternative, given the current state of her military capabilities. Given that strategic decision, once the quick knock-out failed (again an evidential analysis, based on historical precedent) Russia is seeking to maximise the advantages of their slo-mo SMO, whilst attempting to reduce its disadvantages, a task helped greatly by the Ukrainian ‘strategy’ and their poor operational capabilities.
The Russian military will need decades of increased funding before its architecture is consistently comparable to Western capabilities, not just relying on a few outstanding areas, with a reliance on big ticket items. It is though the premier armed force when considering experience of anything other than Low Intensity Conflicts (LIC’s), which, whilst not the same as translatable capability, goes a long way to building a transformational core of expertise that greatly assists any attempts at systemic improvement. Bottom line, the West have made a rod for their own backs.
Posted by: Milites | Dec 25 2023 14:28 utc | 100