@shadowbanned
Lots of problems for both sides (Ukrainians and Russians) :
‘Exceptionally Heavy Losses’ As Russia’s Newest Airborne Division Attacks Ukraine’s Dnipro Bridgehead
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/12/15/exceptionally-heavy-losses-as-russias-newest-airborne-division-attacks-ukraines-dnipro-bridgehead/?sh=6050e92611c6

Posted by: bored | Dec 17 2023 14:34 utc | 4

Putin is preparing Russia for at least another two years of war in Ukraine. The question is, has he retreated from his December 2021 ultimatum?
“Russia has no reason, no interest – no geopolitical interest, neither economic, political nor military – to fight with NATO countries.”
Putin added that Biden may be trying to stoke such fears to justify his “erroneous policy” in the region.
Or is he just lying to the masses to hide his maximalist objectives?

Posted by: Zargo | Dec 17 2023 14:42 utc | 6

Russian planes making direct bombing runs. Means Ukie AD is toast.
https://i.imgur.com/yAE18CE.jpg

Posted by: Surferket | Dec 17 2023 14:58 utc | 8

@ bored 4
Forbes is sh*t media.
I had a front row seat in 1998 when Forbes media were putting up lies and fraud for anyone willing to pay their fee. Don’t wanna get doxxed, so that’s all I’ll say. But what was on full public display was the silliness of Forbes (the owner and ultimate editor) proposing a “flat tax” as his main plank when he ran for US president, and of course his editors displayed great enthusiasm. “Flat tax” was D.O.A., a joke among economists and has never been implemented in modern history.

Posted by: JessDTruth | Dec 17 2023 15:13 utc | 10

#10
> “Flat tax” was D.O.A., a joke among economists and has never been implemented in modern history.
You do know that Russia has a flat income tax of 13%, right?:
https://www.heritage.org/europe/commentary/russias-flat-tax-miracle
And for that, they get a funded military, free higher education and public healthcare.
Makes you actually wonder where all the money goes in the high tax western countries.

Posted by: Datcha42 | Dec 17 2023 15:57 utc | 12

Posted by: Surferket | Dec 17 2023 14:58 utc | 8
Mariupol was lost when Su-25’s were making shallow angle rocket attacks. Another data point will be when rotary craft can do the same, instead of the Nape of the Earth (NOE) pitch up manoeuvre, both sides have adopted. Same with vehicle densities, and a whole host of other lead ‘indicators’ that suggest the terminal phase has either started or is coming to a close.
Posted by: bored | Dec 17 2023 14:34 utc | 4
Sounds like somebody had a tight deadline and borrowed several narrative tropes found in the numerous post-war after action reports cobbled together by the Germans for the US Army, with titles like ‘Operations of encircled forces’. Strange that the Ukrainian troops call it ‘hell’ and cannot see the point of the operation, strange also that this electronic shield is not available to more critical parts of the front. Interesting that this counter-narrative arrives shortly after reports that the Ukrainian elite are being butchered, no doubt the regiment’s home city will reflect this carnage being inflicted. After this conflict is over and the dust has barely settled there will be countless stories like this, semi-fictional versions of numerous battles, the narrative equivalent of the participation trophies handed out to losers. Years later the truth will come out, but by then a whole generation will have their perspectives shaped and skewed.

Posted by: Milites | Dec 17 2023 16:32 utc | 14

Posted by: Datcha42 | Dec 17 2023 15:57 utc | 12
The tax payer money myth will not die. They use sales tax to shred the rouble out of the Russian economy. Use the sales tax to free up skills and real resources the government needs to provision itself.
Keep a close eye on all Russian tax rates. I bet now they are running close to full employment and as more and more resources are being used for the war, tax rates will start to rise in Russia.
NOT to fund the ISSUER of the rouble. But to shred roubles and take them out of the economy for inflation purposes.
I still can’t figure out why people hold the same two thoughts in thier head.
a) ” they tax to control inflation ”
b) ” But then put Those taxes collected straight back into the Russian economy as spending ”
While those two thoughts float around the brain they can’t see the contradiction and how a) and b) contradict each other.
It’s a very good thing then that option b) is completely impossible as no such accounting exists in the Russian government accounts. Has zero chance of ever happening.
As soon as it is taxed it disappears forever because the Russian government ISSUE it and don’t need to horde it.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Dec 17 2023 16:35 utc | 16

@3 shadowbanned
”
1) How is it that whatever facilities they are using to make these have not been pulverized already?
2) Is the Kremlin just going to allow airfields deep inside Russia to be attacked? Because if they mostly repelled the 33-drone salvo, they 200-drone one will do real damage.
”
1. The facilities are distributed, so there’s not one spot to hit. The cost of a piece of this factory may not be worth hitting, or it may have some redundancy. It can also be camouflaged much easier in homes and any other sensitive building with a high atrocity factor.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Dec 17 2023 16:42 utc | 18

“2) Is the Kremlin just going to allow airfields deep inside Russia to be attacked? Because if they mostly repelled the 33-drone salvo, they 200-drone one will do real damage.”
Two factors here, is scalability there may be problems or central nodes in the production network which could be attacked. Second is funding as they’ll be buying lots of parts or entire drones.
But in the cases this is overcome I think the future is underground everything with only disposable or easily repaired assets above ground. Keeps satellite surveillance down. Iran has lovely spaces under mountains with everything in it presumably factories too. A good idea to import into Russia.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Dec 17 2023 16:47 utc | 20

Posted by: Datcha42 | Dec 17 2023 15:57 utc | 12
Of course reading the Heritage foundation think tank who actually believe the gold standard, fixed exchange rate belief that taxes fund Russia government spending.
You have been entrapped by a group of ideologues and thus need to free yourself from such a group as quick as possible.
With it being Heritage foundation (Europe) think tank. They are tricking you to believe that fully sovereign mother Russia is like unsovereign EU countries that use the Euro.
So you should run away as fast as you can and free yourself from their grip. Question is can you free yourself and your thoughts from their clutches ?
Time will only tell.
I very much doubt it. As now today as we speak, the Heritage foundation already control your thoughts via a few very and very simple confirmation biases techniques.
🙁

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Dec 17 2023 16:52 utc | 22

Belogorod invasion
https://www.rt.com/russia/589210-belgorod-region-attack-ukraine/
There it us. Have to wait and see what footage emerges to give clues to the size and locations.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Dec 17 2023 17:01 utc | 24

You know this thread is going places when both Echo Chamber and shadowbanned are doing their usual schticks within the first several posts…

Posted by: Here We Go | Dec 17 2023 18:04 utc | 26

It is always funny to see when people who don’t know to play chess want to give lessons to a chessmaster.
I think that it is highly presumptuous.

Posted by: Naive | Dec 17 2023 18:11 utc | 28

They even attacked Belogorod [sic] in Russia today.
Posted by: zorge | Dec 17 2023 17:22 utc | 25
And of course the intention here is to let think that the city of Belgorod was attacked.

Posted by: Naive | Dec 17 2023 18:25 utc | 30

@27
Yeah!
But his best chess move was
to believe his mama merkel.
Imagine this small man did not realize 30 years
how his western partners played with him
good cop & bad cop
Merkel always was the good cop like his mama
kissing & stroking his ego while the other
Western partners sabotaged.

Posted by: SlowSoft | Dec 17 2023 18:37 utc | 32

It is hilarious how ignorance combined with tribalism likes to whistle past the graveyard of Ukraine’s Dead Man Walking condition.
Germany still V1 and V2 rockets, fought like demons including enlisting children, the aged and infirm, right up until the Third Reich’s glorious Fuhrer splattered his brains on the wall. Those brave Germans were dead and maimed, no long capable of protecting their women from rape, including via the U.S. army.
Tap, tapping Ukraine’s last death throws as anything more significant than a nuisance to Russia, begets laughter not fear nor sympathy.

Posted by: kupkee | Dec 17 2023 19:00 utc | 34

Russian planes making direct bombing runs. Means Ukie AD is toast.
https://i.imgur.com/yAE18CE.jpg
Posted by: Surferket | Dec 17 2023 14:58 utc | 8
If that is more or less the case then I imagine Russia must have been allocating a lot of resources to degrade Ukrainian air defenses. Drones, missiles, guided bombs, and lots of human intelligence collating aerial and satellite date so as to target the hits.
Afaik replacements for destroyed AFU air defenses are only trickling in, so while Russia will have to stay on top of the situation they might see themself as now sitting on a wealth of drones and missiles that could be spared for a new campaign against Ukraine.
Two areas seem as inviting targets to the Russian command, one naturally being the electrical grid of Kiev, especially now that more command and control seems likely to be centered there, with that American Lieutanant General and his large staff playing a big role in that.
Since President Putin has announced goals that involve the SMO evolving into a long slog that will necessitate grinding down all of Ukraine’s MIC, I also expect that Russia will start going in more for strategic strikes against Ukraine, especially on targets that provide support to where the Ukrainian military is operating now, and where it will be in the near future.
Warehouses, staging areas, repair depots, and any and all factories producing critical military supplies; Russia might now have enough drones and missiles to put a hurting on them. Railroad tracks are easy to repair, but there’s lots of equipment and installations essential to running a railroad that could be attacked.
Zelenskyy obliged Russia by ordering the AFU to mass, and then attack Russia’s in depth lines of fortifications. As I see it, in the future, the railroads won’t be used to send more soldiers to that slaughter, but rather to supply and reinforce the AFU after it’s conceded to Russia the areas along the current line of contact, and withdrawn to fortified structures, and newly enhanced defensive lines.
So if Russia in the past saw limited benefits in expending resources in trying to hamper the AFU using the railroads for transport, they may now see a lot to be gained in mounting a comprehensive campaign against them.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Dec 17 2023 19:02 utc | 36

Ukraine is still very very strong. They even attacked Belogorod in Russia today.
Shelling civilians, a khokhol specialty.

Posted by: Fred777 | Dec 17 2023 19:08 utc | 38

Unfortunately, there is — what happens when the first nukes are shipped to Ukraine?
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Dec 17 2023 18:58 utc | 33
The most stupid comment I have ever read on MoA.

Posted by: Naive | Dec 17 2023 19:24 utc | 40

Echo Chamber – seeing that your replied to me twice (16 & 22) on the same flat tax topic, I must have struct a chord. I assume you live in a high tax county?

Posted by: Datcha42 | Dec 17 2023 19:45 utc | 42

Germany defeats eveil Russian invaders with one mighty swift blow!
The Federal Customs Service has extended the ban to personal belongings, including Christmas gifts, from Russia.
Posted by: Arioch | Dec 17 2023 13:24 utc | 1
I am surprised to agree with the vampire V,N. on anything but…F*** the EU.
Bartholomew Cubbins

Posted by: Bartholomew Cubbins | Dec 17 2023 19:52 utc | 44

It seems to me that a sharp mind like Biden’s could have come up with a simple requirement for a desperate Ze to receive his recent presidential drawdown payment by asking him to release Gonzalo Lira. After all Blinken lied under oath to get it and Biden has used a similar request in the past to have a Ukrainian prosecutor fired.
Son-of-a-gun he missed the opportunity.

Posted by: Digital Dinosaur | Dec 17 2023 19:55 utc | 46

Posted by: rk | Dec 17 2023 15:42 utc | 11
“The USA can’t stop Iraqi missiles from landing in the green zone either and the Iraqi’s don’t have a cabal of the richest nations on the planet planning, training and supplying them with weapons.
Russia has a GDP of $1.7T USD while the nations supplying and supporting Ukraine have a combined GDP of $40T USD and the Russians are not only holding their own but beating them.”
Posted by: HB_Norica | Dec 17 2023 16:51 utc | 21
With all due respect Sovereign GDP is a poor measure of a Sovereign’s economic capacity.
PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) is a much better measure as it figures out out what an American dollar can buy in each respective country then you have PPP.
Russia’s PPP
GDP (PPP) 2023 estimate
• Total
Neutral increase $5.056 trillion[16] (6th)
• Per capita
Neutral increase $35,310[16] (60th)
GDP (nominal) 2023 estimate
• Total
Neutral decrease $1.862 trillion[16] (11th)
• Per capita
Neutral decrease $13,006[16] (72n)
It three times higher; I believe Russia will pass Germany this year in PPP.
PPP is better indicator of a nation’s economy

Posted by: canuck | Dec 17 2023 20:14 utc | 48

‘I guess Americans have forgotten Brer Rabbit…’ Don’t make the mistake of equating a country with the imposters and their enablers who now govern the institutions.
Posted by: Milites | Dec 17 2023 16:55 utc | 23
Actually, I was addressing two commenters here directly, and a large slew of others here and elsewhere that constantly whine about the things I mentioned in my post. Excuse me for not say ‘not every American.’ The exceptions, however, are rare. Even in this relatively enlightened saloon there is very little talk about the overarching structure of the conflicts and the long-term strategies of the active participants. There are some wise and knowledgeable Americans, mostly older, but they are well aware of how exceptional they are, and aware as well that the prevailing cultural mindset is focused on the ephemera of the moment, with short memories and no foresight. Americans have been famous around the world for a long, long time for having no sense of history, and to paraphrase a famous adage, ‘those who do not know their history are doomed.’ Full stop.

Posted by: Honzo | Dec 17 2023 20:25 utc | 50

https://t.me/geromanat/15915

“Russia had no problems with Finland until it announced it’s intention to join NATO. Now they will have problems. I hereby order the recreation of the Leningrad Military District on Finland’s borders.”
President Vladimir Putin.

https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/27269

Putin will speak at an extended meeting of the board of the Russian Ministry of Defense next week, reports the Rossiya 1 TV channel.
As my colleagues from the field say, after journalists addressed the shortage of drones at a recent press conference, some of the dudes were demolished. A chain reaction began and some units were offered to hand over Maviks.

https://t.me/milinfolive/112700

The enemy publishes the wreckage of the Russian factory FPV drone Boomerang-8.
Allegedly, control of this drone and transmission of video from it is carried out at non-standard frequencies, which ensures its invulnerability from the vast majority of standard dome electronic warfare systems used on the Ukrainian Armed Forces front.

https://t.me/milinfolive/112703

As a result of a night raid by Ukrainian kamikaze drones on the Morozovsk airfield in the Rostov region, one Su-34 received minor damage.
Once again we raise our “favorite” topic of hangars and state that Russian Aerospace Forces aircraft located in open parking areas are an excellent target for enemy strikes. In this case, exceptionally competent air defense work saved us from more serious damage.
The photo shows that they tried to stretch some kind of mesh over the side, but if it were even in a simple hangar like EFASS or a more massive ESAP, the fragments of the drone would not have reached their target at all. Also pay attention to the complete icing of the bomber, which is also caused by the vehicle being in the open air.

Posted by: anon2020 | Dec 17 2023 21:02 utc | 52

There is a lot of wishful thinking on this site.
Ukraine is still very very strong.
They even attacked Belogorod in Russia today.
Posted by: zorge | Dec 17 2023 17:22 utc | 25
Just wishful thinking, huh? Lol! Kiev and the clown Zelenski have totally nailed it for the past 2 years. They were like, “Man, I wish I could be chilling on the beach in Crimea this August.” Then, they were like, “Man, I wish those Russian troops were so desperate for weapons that they had to resort to using spades.” And they actually wished Putin had cancer at one point. Haha. And theres more but its not worth my time.
Don’t be such a douche bag, man. Wishful thinking, for sure!
Have a drink on me at the bar! Cheers!

Posted by: HERMIUS | Dec 17 2023 21:49 utc | 54

A happy fourth advent to @b and everyone else who enriches the atmosphere of this bar with their contributions.
I wish the foreign ministers of the “western” countries were like this woman.
https://youtu.be/7FwdkxVByW0?feature=shared
Then the Palestinian and Ukraine threads would disappear, “but” it would mean peace.
There are enough other topics of high urgency anyway. Our governments also like to use the conflicts they artificially keep alive as a distraction.
If the media were free, they would realise that it doesn’t work.
But since they are not, the sender-receiver principle of communication is suspended, the roles do not switch…
As if they were trying to fathom the duration between dissatisfaction and revolution.

Posted by: 600w | Dec 17 2023 22:01 utc | 56

Just saw this in my mainstream news feed:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/this-us-air-defense-system-is-a-game-changer-for-ukraine/ss-AA1lrcnB?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=340397ef582b4a1e8c0252887d8c1c6b&ei=18#image=2
Another game changer for Ukraine: a missile system that entered service in 1959…
The comments are turned off, of course, and 900 people had liked it when I saw it.

Posted by: Honzo | Dec 17 2023 22:42 utc | 58

Re: Posted by: Honzo | Dec 17 2023 16:37 utc | 17

This idea that wars between major powers can be won in an afternoon is painfully American. Putin is not trying to defeat the Ukronazis ASAP, he is actually defeating the entire structure of western hegemony in a protracted economic struggle that the west cannot keep up with. The hot war in Ukraine is a firebag, in which the west is invited to pour resources it cannot replace so that Russia can destroy them. I guess Americans have forgotten Brer Rabbit, but the Russians understand the concept of the Tarbaby quite well.
Russia is going to take hits in this struggle. I think only Americans imagine that they can go to war with impunity. Everyone else understands that when you fight, sometimes you get hit. Sometimes you get hit a lot.
The west has so far not adapted its strategy or tactics to the realities of the battlefield. The Russians and the rest of the axis of resistance are following Napoleon’s maxim: Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.

You are projecting here.
There is no real evidence this is what Russia is doing. Why do they keep trying to make deals with The West and keep calling for talks!
The Russians don’t want this war and would like it to end ASAP – that’s the impression I get – but in the meantime, and while they have no one to negotiate with – they’re prepared to do the hard yards and keep fighting.

Posted by: Julian | Dec 17 2023 23:23 utc | 60

Unfortunately, there is — what happens when the first nukes are shipped to Ukraine?
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Dec 17 2023 18:58 utc | 33
—————————————————————————–
Then Washing D.C., Germany, France, and the UK gets nuked.

Posted by: Ed | Dec 17 2023 23:35 utc | 62

Of course, I meant Washington D.C.

Posted by: Ed | Dec 17 2023 23:36 utc | 64

I believe that was a response to Posted by: Milites | Dec 17 2023 23:20 utc | 59, but it is hard to be sure.

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 17 2023 23:53 utc | 66

Posted by: Julian | Dec 17 2023 5:24 utc | 180
Posted by: Julian | Dec 17 2023 23:23 utc | 60
Gosh, what a long shift.
Even I (a non military expert) know that large build ups of tank formations and sweeping moves across the Don plain a la WW2 are not feasible or sensible today given the satellite imagery and drone reconnaissance which would be backed by loitering munitions. Such fast ‘blitzkrieg’ style advances would reap horrendous losses for the attacking side.
It’s been stated repeatedly by people here who do understand the topic very well, that the gradual attrition of Ukraine / NATO with grinding warfare is much more effective and preserves Russian forces. Geopolitically Russian forces not advancing ‘overnight’ to the Polish border is also sensible because it avoids alarm in the EU that would inflame an already Russophobic EU political class into further belligerence against Russia.
This has been explained ad nauseam to you and shadowbanned, slowsoft et al, but for various reasons you continually post to air your frustration that Russia is going “too slow”. Perhaps your motive is to provoke doubt and division. With the slow and steady Russian approach, minimising civilian casualties it’s hard for NATO to manufacture outrage, to the point where practically no-one in the west gives a fuck about the worlds most corrupt former nation Ukraine. It also preserves Russian troops. Perhaps this greatly upsets you.
This is not the war that NATO planned. Handing out anti tank weapons and giving Kiev pensioners petrol bombs back in February 2022 betrayed the fact that NATO and likely you, expected big arrows, shock and awe and then a guerrilla uprising against occupying troops. Afghanistan 2. Instead the corrupt ruling elite in Kiev conscripted working class Ukrainians aged 18-60 and sent them to a meat grinder while those with money and influence dodged the draft and the weapons racket made the leaders in Kiev rich. Although I noticed that you and your colleagues never once complain about this.

Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Dec 18 2023 0:03 utc | 68

Posted by: Naive | Dec 17 2023 18:18 utc | 29
###############
A discussion I was having with Arch in the Palestine threads about how psychopaths in Ukraine and Israel will waste materiel for petty and childish purposes.
in the Ukraine, Zelensky will cry that he doesn’t have enough ammo when he squanders it impotently shelling Donetsk city.
These are not serious people. They are dangerous because while unserious they remain amoral and fanatical.
I am not sure these attacks qualify as a diversion. More like a reflexive tic from mentally ill persons.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 18 2023 0:23 utc | 70

Posted by: the pessimist | Dec 17 2023 23:55 utc | 67
Talking of elderly platforms, I talked to a pilot of a KC-135 Extender, who told me his daughter learned to fly on the same airframe as he had, and that had been 20+ years old at the time!
Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 17 2023 23:48 utc | 65https://duckduckgo.com/?q=characeture&va=b&t=hc&ia=web
Most of the younger generation watch social media, which often resembles a caricature of old school Soviet propaganda about the West, so the US’s inconvenient truth’s are widely broadcast and deceptively emphasised. Most of the MAGAites I’ve talked to avidly read history, as they try to figure out just why their country is where it is now, again it’s always best to address agenda-laden stereotypes with a certain degree of caution. As I said before, in a country not yet three centuries old, remembered family histories cover a huge span of that nations existence and given the publishing industry has been hijacked for the purposes of cultural-warfare, I’d be very careful reading any recent histories.

Posted by: Milites | Dec 18 2023 0:33 utc | 72

🤔
“MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russian rocket forces have loaded a new Yars intercontinental ballistic missile into a silo at the Kozelsk base in the ***Kaluga region, southwest of Moscow, in the defence ministry said.
The 23-metre long RS-24 (Yars) missile is designed to carry multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), which allow the missile to deliver multiple nuclear warheads at different targets.
“In the Kozelsky compound, Strategic Missile Forces loaded a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile into a silo launcher,” the defence ministry said.”
Received a “Moscow” or other threat??
Why “load” if not to be ready?
I know these thing go on all the time, this just struck me as odd for some reason.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Dec 18 2023 0:52 utc | 74

It’s been stated repeatedly by people here who do understand the topic very well, that the gradual attrition of Ukraine / NATO with grinding warfare is much more effective and preserves Russian forces. Geopolitically Russian forces not advancing ‘overnight’ to the Polish border is also sensible because it avoids alarm in the EU that would inflame an already Russophobic EU political class into further belligerence against Russia.
This has been explained ad nauseam to you and shadowbanned, slowsoft et al, but for various reasons you continually post to air your frustration that Russia is going “too slow”. Perhaps your motive is to provoke doubt and division. With the slow and steady Russian approach, minimising civilian casualties it’s hard for NATO to manufacture outrage, to the point where practically no-one in the west gives a fuck about the worlds most corrupt former nation Ukraine. It also preserves Russian troops. Perhaps this greatly upsets you.
Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Dec 18 2023 0:03 utc | 68

It has also been explained to you ad nauseum that there is “going slow to prevent casualties” and there is also “not doing the most obvious things to deprive the AFU of the means to cause them”, and what we are seeing is very much the latter and not the former.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Dec 18 2023 1:43 utc | 76

Posted by: Ed | Dec 17 2023 23:35 utc | 62
>Then Washing D.C., Germany, France, and the UK gets nuked.
Back in the 1960’s, there was a lot of game theorizing about nuclear war. One idea was that, assuming 3+ nuclear powers and war between 2 of them, why should the neutral powers be allowed to inherit the earth after the 2 combatants destroyed each other? This is a recipe for neutral powers to stage false flag attacks or otherwise instigate and fan flames of war between the 2 combatants. So there arose the idea that, if you go to strategic war with anyone, go to war with everyone. That is, if Russia nukes USA, it also nukes Europe, China, India, Israel, etc. And similar reasoning for USA. That is, advertise plan to bring down the roof on everyone’s heads so that everyone is motivated to avoid nuclear war. Part of MAD doctrine.
Another thing worth noting is that Russia and China spent far more than USA on preparing to survive MAD type all-out strategic war, by building deep underground shelters where some percent of the population can survive for several years until radiation levels reduced enough to allow restarting life above ground. USA has only a few such shelters for the elite.
Despite all the huffing and puffing by propaganda outlets, USA deep state is well aware that Russia and China will both fare better in all-out strategic nuclear war, which is why USA continually provokes both Russia and China but then backs down from doing anything that might threatens nuclear escalation. USA wants regime change in Russia and China from internal revolt, not from direct confrontation.
Bottom line: USA will not be giving nukes to Ukraine, and especially not nukes under Ukrainian control.

Posted by: anonposter | Dec 18 2023 2:02 utc | 78

Article on Larry Johnson’s blog, by someone who, going by a quote made in it, is a Moon Of Alabama reader:
https://sonar21.com/the-end-of-ukraine/

“If the Ukraine army could have moved up to the border with Russia, it would have still been on Ukrainian soil. If the Russian army had then crossed over the border into Ukraine, it would have looked a lot more like aggression. This would have been bad PR for Russia, and may have been one reason why Ukraine hesitated.”

Am I reading this right? Ukranazistan hesitated to invade the LDNR because that would have resulted in bad public relations for Russia?!?

Yes? The LDNR were not incorporated into Russia until after the September 2022 referendum, along with Kherson and Zaporozhye. Only on 22 February 2022 did Russia even recognise them as independent countries, not part of Ukranazistan. How can someone write a column on the subject and not know that?

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Dec 18 2023 4:11 utc | 80

Posted by: Honzo | Dec 18 2023 0:30 utc | 70
The last thing I would think is that Russia wants to occupy the country and be stuck policing a resentful Western Ukraine. If history is to go by, they will instead want to install a proxy government of their own, who maintains a friendly position toward them, whilst continuing the policy of recovering the traditional pro-Russian oblasts by way of a referendum.
I wonder how much the Russian plan is driven by the US electoral timetable and the likely result? I certainly know that other countries are beginning to realise that 2025 will not be more of the same, vis a vis, their relations with America and are going through their own political OODA cycles. As a character remarked, on a popular UK political comedy, ‘diplomacy is about surviving the next century, politics is about surviving till the next Friday’, something the current European leaders have hubristically ignored.

Posted by: Milites | Dec 18 2023 5:44 utc | 82

The last thing I would think is that Russia wants to occupy the country and be stuck policing a resentful Western Ukraine. If history is to go by, they will instead want to install a proxy government of their own, who maintains a friendly position toward them, whilst continuing the policy of recovering the traditional pro-Russian oblasts by way of a referendum.
Posted by: Milites | Dec 18 2023 5:44 utc | 81

That being a realistic option has been foreclosed on by now.
Doesn’t mean the Kremlin will not try something like that — after all Minsk-1, Minsk-2 and Istanbul were also not realistic solutions (or really, any solutions whatsoever), and yet the Kremlin went for them, which is why things are where they are now.
A proxy Ukrainian government will be one Maidan away from restarting the war, and that Maidan will not be hard to engineer at all given the built up hatred towards Moscow. You have to physically occupy the territory, replace the school textbooks, control the media, the legislation, etc.
What happened after WWII is very instructive.
The US very successfully pacified and controlled Japan and Germany, and the Soviets also didn’t have all that much trouble in the GDR.
But the US eventually lost some of its satrapies, such as Iran, and the USSR had to invade Hungary and Czechoslovakia, and lost Yugoslavia very early on, Albania later, had to invade Afghanistan, etc.
What was the difference?
Germany and Japan were physically occupied by the US, and so was the GDR by the Soviets. Yugoslavia and Albania never had any Soviet troops on their territories, and neither did Czechoslovakia before it was invaded.
Romania also drifted out of Moscow’s orbit, because it too had no Soviet troops on its territory while being very hostile terrain (imagine trying to fight guerilla warfare in the Carpathians — it was already a nightmare against the UPA in Ukraine, now think what it would have been against the whole Romania).
The only satellite that wasn’t physically occupied and caused no trouble was Bulgaria, but that one is unique because they actually like Russia there for a lot of historical reasons.
But unlike all those situations, Ukraine has the special property that there can be no Ukrainian identity that is not anti-Russian. There is just nothing left of it once you remove the vicious genocidal Russophobia. Certainly there cannot be pro-Russian Ukrainian identity after what has happened in the last ten years.
So you need to occupy and fully de-Ukrainize. There is no other option. And this isn’t a situational short-term political game of the kind that gets played all the time, this is a decisive historic moment the ramifications of which will be felt for centuries to come.
Again, there is nothing that Kremlin excels more at than half measures and snatching strategic defeat from the jaws of total victory, so it is quite likely they will not rise to the occasion.
But that does not change the fundamentals of the strategic situation.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Dec 18 2023 6:25 utc | 84

“I find it ironic that the posters who are frustrated at the tempo of operations are often those who think Russia has the logistical and command capability to launch multiple big arrow offensives.”
Posted by: Milites | Dec 18 2023 0:50 utc | 72
There may be other reasons why people (even in Russia) are frustrated with the slow grinding war. Doubtless all understand the principle of waiting for the enemy to come to you, to obliterate it in the most efficient way (demilitarization) and to save lives of Russian soldiers as much as possible. But these reasons do not always apply, and many people are frustrated, for example with the slow progress in Avdeyevka, which is still used to shell civilians in Donetsk. One hears about “heavily fortified” places, the difficulties of urban fighting etc. etc. These are legitimate problems for frontal attack, but what about bombing the place into smithereens. It was understandable, in the beginning of the conflict, that Ukrainians were preventing the civilians (mostly Russians) from leaving Melitopol in order to hamper Russian attacks. But there are no civilians in Avdeyevka and no air defenses. So it is understandable that many are wondering why the Russians don’t just flatten the place.

Posted by: Pagan | Dec 18 2023 8:25 utc | 86

Posted by: Bartholomew Cubbins | Dec 17 2023 19:52 utc | 44
How would Victoria Nuland react to that piece of news (of the Customs confiscating gifts from Russia)? Would she approve of it?
Context is key. Didn’t she originally say “F*** the EU” because it was insufficiently obedient to the USA, or because it was too obedient?
I for one disdain the EU, but I will not agree with Nuland because her reason for saying it was not only different, but also immoral.

Posted by: joey_n | Dec 18 2023 8:35 utc | 88

Legitimnyi:
-RUAF is using Geraniums again as a method to force AFU to relocate AD systems to where they want
-AD systems then get hit with fast missiles, and ammo is being used up
-Zelensky promised to add 200k people into AFU by the end of January

Posted by: unimperator | Dec 18 2023 9:11 utc | 90

Unfortunately, Russia has huge losses. Ukraine still has many FPV drones according to Dima, my main source of information.

Posted by: zorge | Dec 18 2023 10:01 utc | 92

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Dec 18 2023 6:25 utc | 83
So you need to occupy and fully de-Ukrainize. There is no other option. And this isn’t a situational short-term political game of the kind that gets played all the time, this is a decisive historic moment the ramifications of which will be felt for centuries to come.

Ukrainian identity looks different from the inside than from the outside. Where most of the world still sees a slavic people with culture nearly indistinguishable from Russia, this surely looks different to nationalists that tend to play up the differences.
There will be no need to “de-ukrainize”, this would be tantamount to the same mistake the UKie nazies made suppressing russian identity and language. Nothing riles up a polity more than loss of identity.
What’s required is to shift the view back to common interest. This starts from existentialist principles, deprogramming to see how Ukraine was sold out against self-interest by populist self-serving politicians. Once the idea of a Russian beneficial autonomous sphere comes back, ideally embedded into a multipolar view there can be peace again.
Then wait another 200 years for that bloc to be politically corrupted and ready to empire again..

Again, there is nothing that Kremlin excels more at than half measures and snatching strategic defeat from the jaws of total victory, so it is quite likely they will not rise to the occasion.

“Total victory” is a fairly US kind of concept, “Endsieg” sounds fairly similar. Not pushing for absolutes actually is a mark of sanity. War is a means, not an end. Internal and external security (military, economic and politically) is and should be the main goal of any state, not much more.

Posted by: SOS | Dec 18 2023 10:34 utc | 94

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-17-2023
Kagan is in thinktank propaganda land again, every sentence here is a gem.

Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov, Medvedev, and other pundits consistently threaten to use nuclear weapons against the United States and other NATO countries.[12] These threats are part of long-standing Russian narratives about attacking NATO that predated Finland’s application and acceptance into the alliance on April 4.[13] The statements of Russian pundits do not pose a military threat to NATO countries, to be sure, but they are important context for Putin’s ostensible effort to calm the waters during his December 17 interview. Putin’s proclamation that Russia has no interest in invading NATO is also very similar to the Kremlin’s persistent claims in late 2021 and early 2022 — including right up to the eve of the invasion — that Russia did not intend to invade Ukraine.[14] The interview was likely a deliberate attempt to reamplify the Kremlin’s efforts to misrepresent the Russian military threat as an imaginary and artificial NATO invention.[15]

Calling Mr Medvedev a pundit is almost as smart as calling Chairman Xi a dictator, who lets rabid dogs like this close to power?
“threaten to use nuclear weapons” .. fairly rich coming from the only country with a nuclear first strike policy.
“long-standing Russian narratives about attacking NATO” .. the same nato encroaching on Russias borders. If this is about attacking, what would defense mean?
“The statements of Russian pundits do not pose a military threat to NATO countries, to be sure” .. whistling in the dark. .don’t be afraid.
“Putin’s ostensible effort to calm the waters” .. don’t attack, don’t defend, don’t deescalate.. just submit.
“Putin’s proclamation that Russia has no interest in invading NATO” .. oh, did I say don’t be afraid? I meant be afraid. Schroedinger’s fascist enemy is back.
“efforts to misrepresent the Russian military threat as an imaginary and artificial NATO invention” .. who do you believe, me or your lying eyes?
Deconstructing this language is insane, this is textbook delusion and wordsmithing for literature classes.

Putin has been seeking to curtail and weaken NATO for two decades and continually demands changes to the alliance that would amount to dismantling it Putin stated on December 17 that Russia does not have any “territorial disputes” with NATO countries in order to mask his actual long-standing objective to weaken Western unity and coerce NATO into abandoning its core principles, such as the “Open Door Policy,” which allows the alliance at its discretion to admit new members and is enshrined in the NATO Charter.[16] Putin has been consistently pursuing this goal throughout his regime and demonstrated his full commitment to it by ordering the Russian Foreign Ministry (MFA) to issue ultimatums to the US and NATO in December 2021 demanding “security guarantees” from NATO and commitments not to expand, among other things.[17]

“curtail and weaken NATO for two decades” .. weaken the anti-russian alliance.. how dare they?
“changes to the alliance that would amount to dismantling it” example please? and would that be a bad thing?
“Putin stated on December 17 that Russia does not have any “territorial disputes” with NATO countries” true. And that’s why we can’t believe it.
“coerce NATO into abandoning its core principles, such as the “Open Door Policy,”” .. maybe Russia should apply for NATO membership again to see how serious they are about their core principles? Nice euphemism for eastward expansion and containment too.
“throughout his regime” .. regime? getting a little carried away here, are we? Don’t use up that word yet, you may want it when Trump comes to power /s
“demanding “security guarantees” from NATO and commitments not to expand” don’t say expand you fool, that’s not what we are doing. You clearly forgot to blame Putin here.

Putin’s decades-long goal is to set conditions in which NATO would undermine its own global power, creating a structurally and ideologically defeated NATO that cannot resist Russia’s future objectives – which can include territorial conquests or the establishment of Russian suzerainty over states that Moscow deems to be in its proper sphere of control.[18] ISW has long assessed that growing friction between the United States and Europe and within NATO and other Western structures would weaken Western collective measures against the Kremlin’s aggressive behavior and allow Putin to develop a new web of coalitions to support Russia’s objectives.[19] Putin routinely reiterates his distaste for Western alliances, calling for the formation of a multipolar world order in which Russia has a veto over key global events.[20] Putin wants NATO to recognize Russia’s claims, demands, and perceived sphere of influence and has repeatedly indicated Russia’s intent to end “US hegemony.”[21] Putin had been largely using hybrid war efforts to weaken the West and its place in the world order before invading Ukraine in 2014 (apart from his 2008 invasion of Georgia), and his justifications for the full-scale invasion of 2022 did not rely on so-called territorial disputes.[22]

“creating a structurally and ideologically defeated NATO” .. how about no NATO at all? NATO doesn’t really need much help here. Also, this is exactly Putin’s job description, stop blaming him for it.
“which can include territorial conquests” – aka Pigs can fly
“Moscow deems to be in its proper sphere of control” NATO and Germany are you listening, sound familiar?
“growing friction between the United States and Europe and within NATO and other Western structures would weaken Western collective measures” oops, we are losing, how did that happen? Can we stop?
“against the Kremlin’s aggressive behavior and allow Putin to develop a new web of coalitions” can’t keep blaming Putin all the time, have to say Kremlin for a change. And wait, he’s got friends? Are we losing?
“Putin routinely reiterates his distaste for Western alliances” oh pray tell me why that would be?
“calling for the formation of a multipolar world order” another BAD THING, kinda like peace..
“Russia has a veto over key global events” like the US in UNSC? Oh wait, they have veto power there already and don’t use it?
“hybrid war efforts” as in “not war”. Kind of US vs China, right?
“apart from his 2008 invasion of Georgia” yeah that war against the most unlikely NATO candidate after their coup.
“so-called territorial disputes” blame him that he did not claim conquest.
I think the world would be a better place if he refocused his wet dreams on his wife. It’s tough but please take one for the team.

Posted by: SOS | Dec 18 2023 11:08 utc | 96

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Dec 18 2023 9:56 utc | 91
Shadowbanned is not necessarily Russian, if he is, he is unlikely to be located in Russia now. He has a deep knowledge of Russia, but this could be as a western student or emigre from the former Soviet Union.
This makes him highly desirable to western alphabet agencies in order to propagate the as you correctly point out “sophisticated Russia is losing” narrative. This blog is way more effective and influential than you seem to think.
Of course Shadowbanned couldn’t be spinning his psyop in Russian from Russia, the state would quite rightly clampdown on his morale sapping negativity and criticism because people in Russia particularly the leadership are keen not to go the way of Yugoslavia or Libya.

Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Dec 18 2023 11:52 utc | 98

Have some more:
As the world shifts its attention to the Middle East, Canadian volunteers Dave and Justin Smith are growing concerned that the war they’d come to Ukraine to fight is slowly being lost. Not because the two Canadians have any doubts about the bravery or the commitment of the Ukrainians they fight alongside, but because they feel the West is becoming distracted and losing interest in the grinding conflict in Europe. (The Globe and Mail)

Posted by: Jonathan W | Dec 18 2023 12:27 utc | 100