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December 7, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-295
Comments
“Is that why Putin has now on several occasions admitted that “we should have gone all in in 2014″, i.e. what the deluded posters here who couldn’t possibly do a better job than him demanded at the time and ever since?”
Posted by: Augusto Pi | Dec 8 2023 13:56 utc | 101
Posted by: canuck | Dec 8 2023 12:50 utc | 94
Let me amend that further: “Russia is a clean, well-stocked Circle K, and Uncle Sam is a raving, toothless homeless guy in the parking lot suffering mentally from delusions of grandeur while he soils himself and waves a toy gun around telling people to obey his commands.”
Posted by: Mike R | Dec 8 2023 14:27 utc | 102
It’s a fiscal quarter end problem is all. The 2023 books getting shuffled and tweaked.
Ukraine will have its $$.
It’s a laundry mat and has been for last decade (accelerated) .
The $$ isn’t meant for the “war cause” or about “Ukraine winning”.
They need enough $$ to pay salaries & prevent default to keep laundry mat up & running one more year, and they’ll get the money…
They may get 4-6 billion by Xmas to continue “talks” after Christmas “recess”.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Dec 8 2023 14:50 utc | 103
https://t.me/milinfolive/112200
Footage of enemy FH77BW L52 Archer self-propelled guns in the Kremennaya area has appeared.
There are expensive and thus worth going after. It’s impossible to zero the acoustic / thermal airburst or radar trace of the shell in flight and the gun in the video isn’t even firing on a low / stealthy trajectory.
Posted by: anon2020 | Dec 8 2023 15:09 utc | 104
I am not aware of any such statement.
Then you need to keep quiet, it means you are not following events.
However, let us assume that the statement is true and that it was made repeatedly.
It is obvious to anybody that Putin is an extremely prudent man. Going “all in” in 2014 would have been extremely un-Putinesque, and I mean *extremely*. In contrast, there is no shortage here of more or less strongly hallucinating firebrands and world destroyers.
Posted by: Augusto Pi | Dec 8 2023 13:56 utc | 101
What relevance does that have to the question whether he is infallible or not?
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Dec 8 2023 15:23 utc | 105
Any posters here who think they could have done a better job than Putin Lavrov and Gerasimov have an extraordinarily deluded view of their own abilities.
Posted by: Tim | Dec 8 2023 7:17 utc | 71
Indeed so.
Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 8 2023 13:02 utc | 96
I third that.
В попытках убедить республиканцев выделить деньги на Украину следуют все более чудесные откровения. В частности от Блинкена.
1. 90% всех выделенных на Украину американских денег на Украину не попали. Большая их часть осталась в США.
2. Эти деньги были направлены на поддержку предприятий ВПК и создание новых рабочих мест.
3. Такое соотношение расходов является выигрышным для всех, поэтому надо выделить “еще помощь для Украины”.
Не то, чтобы это было каким-то секретом, просто зафиксируем, что это особо уже и не скрывают.
Attempts to persuade Republicans to allocate money to Ukraine are being followed by increasingly miraculous revelations. In particular, from Blinken.
1. 90% of all American money allocated to Ukraine did not reach Ukraine. Most of them remained in the United States.
2. This money was used to support military-industrial complex enterprises and create new jobs.
3. Such a ratio of costs is a win-win for everyone, so it is necessary to allocate “more assistance for Ukraine”.
It’s not that it’s a secret, it’s just that it’s not hidden anymore.
tg
Posted by: rpst | Dec 8 2023 15:29 utc | 107
Posted by: Tim | Dec 8 2023 7:17 utc | 71
Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 8 2023 13:02 utc | 96
Posted by: canuck | Dec 8 2023 15:25 utc | 106
Not only have you guys failed to work out for yourselves that dismissing criticism purely on the grounds of its source being unable to do a better job themselves is the handicapped cousin of Argument from Authority, you’ve also failed to notice that such criticism is often organised around implicit consideration of alternative candidates at the same level.
I doubt you guys would ever bother to enquire as to what security arrangements were in place for Kakhovka HPP and dam before their catastrophic loss or how drone boats are still able to enter military harbours and hit their intended targets unchallenged.
It is to be hoped that those you refer to, and their peers, are more tolerant of and receptive of criticism than you yourselves are.
Posted by: anon2020 | Dec 8 2023 15:46 utc | 108
“If they plow more several $100 billions USD into black hole laundromat, then we might looking at 6 % treasury yields”
Only because they are thick and think hiking rates fights inflation. Why Argentina is in the mess it is in.
https://warrenmosler.com/there-is-no-right-time-for-the-fed-to-raise-rates/
And
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wIvhTDp6O9s&pp=ygUYV2FycmVuIG1vc2xlciByYXRlIGhpa2Vz
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Dec 8 2023 16:24 utc | 109
Prior to 2022 Russia had around 1.2 million combat troops. That has been added to with the three hundred thousand mobilized plus the new army being built for the Finland border. From bits and pieces of information Russia intends a standing army of 1.5 million or so combat forces.
Russia still has huge military reserves not committed to Ukraine and appears to be building strength for the next war/wider war.
From Biden’s recent speech, although it could be purely for domestic political purposes, it does seem US intends to kick off its Russian invasion of Europe next year.
My thought is the Brits will most likely run the European war against Russia while US launches its war against China using its proxies and vassals in the region.
Matyanov has a piece up on Russia sharing all military technologies with China that will include things like the Kinzal. My thought is China with its manufacturing might and large highly educated workforce will be able to take production of those technologies to another level.
Putin has announced another term in office which means he will lead Russia through until 2030.
China discarded completely the recent US concept of the President only being able to serve a couple of terms so Xi will likely remain as leader of China through that period.
Russia captured enough documents in Ukraine to clearly see where the US was headed with its bio weapons program. I believe mRNA vaccines, launched in scale in the west with what looks to be a US bio attack on China, and now Moderna, a startup company directly linked to Darpa building new facilities throughout five-eyes…
The last half of 2024 through 2025 may well see the main conflict of Hybrid WWIII. Europe VS Russia and US and vassals vs China.
Victor vicktop55
@vicktop55
Luis Esteban Dominguez: “Russians will always believe in the West. There are many traitors. A real problem”.
No, even if the Russians are deceived, the Russians will still return and take theirs. “Russians always come for theirs”©
“Do not expect that once taking advantage of Russia’s weakness, you will receive dividends forever. Russian has always come for their money. And when they come – do not rely on an agreement signed by you, you are supposed to justify. They are not worth the paper it is written. Therefore, with the Russian is to play fair, or do not play.”
Otto von Bismarck
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 8 2023 16:27 utc | 110
Hope this isn’t a double-post, previous attempt seems to have failed.
https://t.me/milinfolive/112212
During the North Military District, the topic of the DPRK’s ability to help solve a number of problems with our artillery that are of serious importance during the battles is widely discussed. At the same time, there is not much information about the DPRK, its army and the military-industrial complex and it is contradictory.
Therefore, a logical question often arises: which of the North Korean artillery assortment is of real value in the current conditions?
The military-industrial complex of the DPRK has a fairly large range and volume of artillery production. This applies to artillery systems, ammunition and various other consumables. Including because artillery was and is one of the main priorities of the DPRK. Therefore, there is also a lot of interesting things there beyond the well-known “big rockets”.
Firstly, these are large volumes of “Soviet classics” – conventional ammunition for systems originally from the USSR. Mines 82 mm and 120 mm, shots for tank guns 100 mm and 115 mm, shots for howitzers and guns 122 mm, 130 mm, 152 mm, rockets for MLRS 122 mm, for anti-aircraft systems 57- mm, etc. And there is a lot of this in warehouses (millions of pieces) and the industrial capacity for production is also significant.
Secondly, these are different ammunition of increased efficiency for the same Soviet classics.
For example, GRAD-compatible 122-mm high-precision guided missiles with guidance based on signals from satellite navigation systems. A thing that is extremely necessary in modern warfare, and which would be very useful for “refining” the fire of the mass of existing GRADs.
The DPRK also produces conventional 122-mm rockets with cluster warheads! The latter are an approximate analogue of Chinese cluster munitions for similar systems. It is also very useful to have such means of destruction on hand and in commercial quantities.
Thirdly, the DPRK has an ideal system in the class “Short-range support MLRS at the grassroots level/assault MLRS on vehicles” (everyone has seen in the Northern Military District zone various shushpanzers like BRDM-2 or MT-LB, etc. with a unit of aviation NAR or marine NURS). This is a 107 mm Type-75. For various low-level “combat vehicles with an additional RS unit on the armor” this is a more suitable option than the units of aviation NAR and other ersatz MLRS widely used on ground vehicles.
This is a tiny, almost toy-sized system with 12 guides and quite lethal missiles (equal in effectiveness to a 105-mm howitzer shell), which can be fired in less than 10 seconds at a range of up to 8.5 km. It can easily be installed not only on an armored vehicle, but also on a small buggy or even an ATV. At the same time, due to the weight of the ammunition, it is easy to handle. And the DPRK has already accumulated huge reserves of launchers and various missiles for them (there is even an option with a cluster warhead).
Fourthly, the famous 300-mm MLRS KN-09 is capable of confidently sending guided missiles to a range of significantly more than 200 km (the upper range estimate is 220-250 km, there are options with 8 and 12 guides on one launcher). The system itself has been produced for a long time and a stock of both launchers and missiles has been accumulated. Moreover, there are missiles with conventional, cluster and even penetrating warheads.
Fifthly, this is a 152-mm (155) M-2018 self-propelled gun. A serial self-propelled gun with a 52(!) caliber barrel (according to Western data), an automated control system, and even a ballistic radar included. The system exceeds the conventional MSTu in range. The DPRK, of course, is also firing shots at it. Something like this would not hurt us in the Northern Military District zone.
Vladimir Khrustalev, expert on the DPRK military-industrial complex, for the Military Informant channel
#expertVO
Posted by: anon2020 | Dec 8 2023 17:27 utc | 111
Ukraine Weekly Update: may be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-aee
Posted by: Robert Hamilton Camp | Dec 8 2023 18:48 utc | 112
The warv is not over. The west, elite and common people, specially in EU are eager to hurt and defeat Russia.
The west is so evil, prepared and mad. They see this as a big chance.
Posted by: zorge | Dec 8 2023 7:23 utc | 73
Care to provide evidence (in the form of opinion polls, etc.) to prove your assertion that the common man in the West is in favor of something that damages his standard of living? I hope you’re not trolling here.
Posted by: joey_n | Dec 8 2023 20:51 utc | 113
Ukrainian soldiers are hsouting at their colonel.
Rus/Ukr creole
Video: http://vk.com/video_ext.php?oid=-213205697&id=456271424&hash=a8cdd5a7b59df447
Text: https://hippy-end.livejournal.com/6052593.html
Our guys, they are in hospital now, wish they were here to look at you! You dispatched them for one day and abandoned them for 4 days there! They were eating leaves and leaking due!
…You said occupy trenches, but there was no trenches! Do you know soldiers can not dig trenches with bare hands when there are moskal cannons shooting at everyone trying to raise his head?
…and then there was that one tank sent to help us. With not a single shell to fire. We asked tankmen what the fuck they came for here with no shells to fire, and they said they didn’t know either, they just were ordered to go there
Delicious.
Posted by: Arioch | Dec 8 2023 21:43 utc | 114
Echo Chamber @ 109
Bad immigration policy benefits the elites which is why they never correct it.
Bad housing policy benefits the elites which is why they never correct it.
Bad health policy benefits the elites which is why they never correct it.
Bad eduction policy benefits the elites which is why they never correct it.
Bad military policy benefits the elites which is why they never correct it.
Bad economic policy benefits the elites which is why they never correct it.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 8 2023 21:51 utc | 115
joey_n | Dec 8 2023 20:51 utc | 113
To be fair there are a number of people in the UK who don’t believe a word their government or media say about the benefits of immigration (for example) or “a flexible labour market”, yet swallow everything they’re told about the evil Russkies.
“I know they lie about everything I understand, but I’m sure they’re telling the truth about Russia” – isn’t there a psychological syndrome, where you read about things you understand in the paper and think “this is a pile of pants”, then you read something on a subject of which you’re ignorant and take it as gospel?
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Dec 8 2023 22:09 utc | 116
The good news is I see fewer and fewer Ukrainian flags, and the ones still there from last year look pretty sad now.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Dec 8 2023 22:11 utc | 117
But still the thinktanks want more and more war. I trust Russian analysts are taking note.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/12/08/ukraine-russia-war-aid-congress-biden-victory-counteroffensive-crimea
The first phase would be to isolate the peninsula. To that end, the West should prioritize arming Ukraine with the weapons that it needs to destroy, or at least incapacitate, the Kerch Bridge. Rendering the only direct connection between Russia and Crimea inoperable would put enormous pressure on Russia’s other route to Crimea, which runs through the so-called land bridge—the long stretch of occupied Ukraine along the Black Sea coast.
That means Washington should also assist Ukraine in targeting key transit nodes along that route, including the Henichesk, Syvash, and Chonhar bridges that connect occupied Crimea to Kherson Oblast. Ukraine needs to be able to put constant pressure on these targets and stay one step ahead of Russian engineering units.
The second phase of a Crimea campaign involves making the peninsula’s naval and air bases unusable for Russian forces. This requires urgent and plentiful deliveries of ATACMS, including variants with a unitary warhead and 190-milerange. With pressure from Washington, Berlin can be persuaded to also supply the German-made Taurus, a powerful air-launched cruise missile with a range of about 300 miles.
So far, Ukraine has had some success striking Russian ships, air defense batteries, electronic warfare platforms, airfields, and headquarters in Crimea using repurposed Soviet-era S-200 air defense missiles, as well as British Storm Shadow and French SCALP-EG air-launched cruise missiles. The S-200s, however, are less precise than more modern systems, and the Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG cruise missiles, like the Taurus, must be air-launched, limiting their use so long as Ukraine does not control the skies. What’s more, Britain, France, and Germany only have small stocks of these weapons. This is why providing ATACMS—which exist in large numbers—is so important.
The third phase of a Crimea campaign consists of striking key facilities inside the Russian Federation. Russian forces pushed out of Crimea must be denied safe haven on the other side of the border, where they would otherwise regroup to launch their next attack. The United States has restricted the use of U.S.-supplied weapons to targets in occupied Ukraine; instead, Washington should assist Kyiv in developing and manufacturing its own capabilities to strike Russian naval and air bases in Rostov Oblast, Krasnodar Krai, and other regions of Russia located across the sea from Crimea or bordering occupied Ukraine.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Dec 8 2023 22:26 utc | 118
YetAnotherAnon @ 117
The good news is I see fewer and fewer Ukrainian flags, and the ones still there from last year look pretty sad now.
How many faded flags, yellow ribbons, signs in store windows, have I seen over the decades. Sadly the American public is like a dog next to a man with a stick, no matter how many times the man fakes throwing it the dog reacts and runs off looking for it.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 8 2023 22:43 utc | 119
YetAnotherAnon @ 118
That was a fun read, the authors must have very nice nuclear bomb shelters in their back yards along with 50ys worth of food and water.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 8 2023 22:51 utc | 120
Some videos for today.
Russian drones destroy enemy infantry near Andreevka, south of the DPR’s Artemovsk:
https://rutube.ru/video/8ac7e832dd8280b1b4f7998d2391488f/
Russian drones pound enemy positions near Artemovsk:
https://rutube.ru/video/9de05227ca0918de5e10fa7b6e90f08f/
Russian drones strike enemy position near Berestovoye:
https://rutube.ru/video/9229694d543d58f35b84148214158543/
Russian howitzer opens fire in Kherson oblast:
https://rutube.ru/video/7b7e3ffb6bee1762a1bb7ebaaded5942/
Posted by: Nate | Dec 9 2023 1:21 utc | 121
Posted by: canuck | Dec 8 2023 12:50 utc | 94
Let me amend that further: “Russia is a clean, well-stocked Circle K, and Uncle Sam is a raving, toothless homeless guy in the parking lot suffering mentally from delusions of grandeur while he soils himself and waves a toy gun around telling people to obey his commands.”
Posted by: Mike R | Dec 8 2023 14:27 utc | 102
Yes, Mike, that is better yet.
Hmmmm…
❗️”We ask all unmarried women to move in with unmarried men” – Ukraine is experiencing energy shortages 🇺🇦⚡️
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses/42092
Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 9 2023 17:53 utc | 123
❗️ Russia installed jet engines on Geranium drones
If earlier with first-generation piston engines the speed of the Geranium was 180-200 km per hour (up to 300 in a dive), now it is 450-600 km per hour (up to 800 in a dive).
Honored military pilot of Russia, Major General Vladimir Popov spoke about this in an interview with @SputnikLive .
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/78249
Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 9 2023 18:15 utc | 124
by YetAnotherAnon | Dec 8 2023 22:26 utc | 118
Yes, right. Brothers Grimm and H.C. Andersen must have helped out a bit there in making the war planning. Surely, RF MoD is taking the notes, being very surprised.
“…while the 101st Airborne was rapidly liberating Sevastopol having only 2 wounded, SAS and Ghurkas are moping up last disorganized resistance cells and remnants of badly armed, trained and equipped Russian forces in Yalta.
A German-Polish column of Leopards 2A4 thundered Eastwards, through the vast fields of Donbas, leaving the Donetsk city behind, to a safeguard by the 6th Latvian Mobile Army, supported by Norwegian Brigade Nord and British Royal Tank Regiment.
More South and along the newly liberated territories, the Ukrainian 479 Resurrected Air Armour Brigade, was basking in the sun washed freshly liberated Mariupol, strolling casually along beach strands.
RAF C-130 was thundering in the distance, escorted by 2 Ukrainian F-16 block 17…”
I am sure the NATO has even better written press releases and media-guides, stashed somewhere, just in case. Anything goes nowadays, really.
If in Brussels, I can only recommend that the new NATO canteen in Brussels-Haren, is a way better than in any of the EU buildings. So much so, that it pays off spending 40 minutes on the bus or metro from Maelbeek mini-EU area. As for the atmosphere there, I can say that I haven’t seen the one smiling face or even grin. Everybody is dead serious. TVs were showing some French cooking show. More lively would be the lunch in the church. Food is great and inexpensive.
Also, what I have noticed is that Avenue de Stalingrad-Stalingradlaan is not changed into Avenue de Bucha-Buchalaan.
Posted by: whirlX | Dec 9 2023 20:01 utc | 125
whirlX 125:
With the Avenue de Stalingrad as well as the metro station and square of the same name in Paris, the losers in the West have thanked their former allies in the East for their successes. That was also much cheaper than losing millions of soldiers yourself. A renaming would therefore only be considered if Ukraine had achieved a huge, decisive success in the war. So definitely soon.
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Dec 10 2023 12:39 utc | 126