Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
December 03, 2023

Ukraine Open Thread 2023-292

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Posted by b on December 3, 2023 at 14:11 UTC | Permalink

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It is becoming clearer that the Ukraine war with all the well prepared economic sanctions, the NS sabotage and MSM demonizing of President Putin was a concerted effort to conquer and overtake Russia. A full-spectrum surprise attack on another country by the collective West. Pure piracy. Now that the assault has failed it has awaken a lot of people to recognise the sinister and cynical schemes and also brought light to the overwhelmingly many completely manipulated clueless and calous people among us. How many of the responsible were actually knowing of the plan and how many were just running along with the crowd? In any way we should not let either forget their complicity but hold them disqualified for future leadership. We must realise that the real crisis is just starting now and the first consequence may be a sharp split in our societies - maybe resulting in a "European Spring".
Sorry for repeating the obvious, but it may be time to sober up with strong coffee in the bar :-\

Posted by: Baddy | Dec 3 2023 14:27 utc | 1

⚡️ Russian Defence Ministry report on the PROGRESS of the special military operation (25 November – 2 December 2023)

▫️ In the period from 25 November to 2 December 2023, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation inflicted 27 group strikes with high-precision weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles on the military airfield infrastructure, arsenals, storage sites for artillery ammunition, weapons and military hardware, as well as enemy POL bases.

In addition, the AFU temporary deployment sites were struck. All the assigned targets have been engaged.

▫️ In Kupyansk direction, units of the Zapad Group of Forces have improved the situation along the front line near Sinkovka (Kharkov region) and repelled 18 AFU attacks.

Aviation and artillery inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of the AFU 10th Mountain Assault Brigade, 57th Motorised Infantry Brigade, 14th, 43rd, 53rd, and 67th mechanised brigades near Sinkovka, Ivanovka, and Kislovka (Kharkov region).

The enemy losses amounted to more than 315 Ukrainian troops, two tanks, eight armoured fighting vehicles, 15 motor vehicles, and seven field artillery guns.

▫️ In Krasny Liman direction, units of the Tsentr Group of Forces supported by aviation, artillery, and heavy flamethrower systems repelled 13 attacks launched by assault detachments of the AFU 12th Special Operations Brigade, 47th and 67th mechanised brigades.

In addition, strikes were delivered at manpower of the AFU 31st National Guard Brigade, 117th and 125th territorial defence brigades close to Torskoye, Krasny Liman, Serebryanka, and Grigorovka (Donetsk People's Republic).

The enemy losses amounted to up to 950 Ukrainian troops killed and wounded, seven armoured fighting vehicles, and 21 motor vehicles in this direction.

▫️ In Donetsk direction, units of the Yug Group of Forces supported by aviation and artillery continued to improve the tactical situation at the forward lines and liberated Artyomovskoye (Donetsk People's Republic).

In addition, strikes were delivered at the AFU manpower and hardware near Maryinka, Kurdyumovka, and Kleshcheyevka (Donetsk People's Republic).

Over the past week, 25 attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces were repelled.

The enemy losses amounted to more than 1680 Ukrainian troops, six tanks, six armoured fighting vehicles, 31 motor vehicles, and 19 field artillery guns.

▫️ In South Donetsk direction, units of the Vostok Group of Forces repelled three enemy attacks.

Aviation and artillery inflicted losses on units of the AFU 58th Motorised Infantry Brigade, 72nd Mechanised Brigade, and 128th Territorial Defence Brigade close to Novomikhailovka, Staromayorskoye, Nikolskoye, Shevchenko, Konstantinovka, and Novodonetskoye (Donetsk People's Republic).

The enemy losses amounted to more than 880 Ukrainian troops, one tank, six armoured fighting vehicles, 20 motor vehicles, and five field artillery guns.

▫️ In Zaporozhye direction, units of the Russian Group of Forces engaged in intensive defence, during which repelled 14 attacks of the AFU units near Rabotino and Verbovoye (Zaporozhye region).

Moreover, the Russian Armed Forces inflicted fire damage on manpower and hardware of the AFU 71st Jaeger Brigade, 82nd Assault Brigade, 33rd, 65th, and 118th mechanised brigades near Malaya Tokmachka and Novoandreyevka (Zaporozhye region).

The AFU losses amounted to more than 315 Ukrainian troops, five tanks, seven armoured fighting vehicles, 21 motor vehicles, as well as five field artillery guns.

▫️In Kherson direction, the enemy units made unsuccessful attempts to land infantry groups on islands and the left bank of the Dnepr.

As a result of preventive actions by the Russian forces and artillery fire assaults, the AFU have lost up to 450 Ukrainian troops, 13 field artillery guns, 23 boats, and 26 motor vehicles. Two AFU sabotage and reconnaissance groups were eliminated.

In addition, units of the AFU 35th, 36th, and 37th marines brigades have been struck near Tyaginka, Tokarevka, and Sadovoye (Kherson region).

In addition, 14 Ukrainian servicemen were taken prisoner in this direction during the week.

▫️Operational-Tactical and Missile Troops of the Russian Groups of Forces destroyed one fuel depot and the air park at the airfield near Mirgorod (Poltava region), as well as six P-18 radar stations.

▫️Air defence systems shot down eight aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force during the week, namely, five MiG-29, two Su-27, one Su-25, as well as one Mi-8 helicopter.

Air defence units shot down 41 HIMARS and Uragan MLRS projectiles, three HARM anti-radiation missiles, and 188 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles.

📊 In total, 545 airplanes and 256 helicopters, 9,353 unmanned aerial vehicles, 442 air defence missile systems, 13,743 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,187 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 7,215 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 15,844 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.

🔹 Russian Defence Ministry

Posted by: rumod report | Dec 3 2023 14:28 utc | 2

Mariupol

If this was the UK or USA and the more dysfunctional parts of the EU the inhabitants would be sitting on the pile of rubble for a couple of decades. It's ugly ticky-tacky but it's fast, cheap, and a clean, warm home. The residents can start customizing their city once peace comes.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Dec 3 2023 14:57 utc | 3

X: Stas Olenchenko 🇺🇦 @TheStanislawski
What’s happening at the Polish, Slovakian, and Hungarian borders with Ukraine is a disgrace.

Russia may have underestimated Ukraine’s resilience and the will to fight back, but it sure was correct about Europe’s worst fascist forces sabotaging Ukraine’s defense capabilities.
-----
Seems like a clash between Europe's best fascist forces with the Europe's worst fascist forces. Where is Justin Trudeau when we need him?

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Dec 3 2023 15:38 utc | 4

Let me try with a hopefully less constipational comment.
The bated assault on Russia using the propped up Ukrainian army combined with economic sanctions, the NS sabotage, and the MSM smearing campaign was simply a pirate attack. A complex story explained simple but correct. Even including the chaotic attempts to oust Trump when he - to everybodys surprise - appeared and disrupted the preparations to the attack.
Western pirate politics to the cost of 100.000's dead and wounded and a ruined country. The blatant failure of the attack and the upcoming CYA maneuvers will make it even more evident for all to see.

Posted by: Baddy | Dec 3 2023 16:06 utc | 5

Slava Ukraini! Work Group, Global Cone of Silence Report:
our struggle to execute our "Peace Plan" (items No. 5, No. 7, possibly No.9 and No.10) continues

In Odessa, the court sentenced a Chinese blogger who filmed the work of the air defense

...It is established that on May 4, 2023, Zixian made a video recording of the air defense work in Odessa from the window of his apartment. After that, on his own YouTube channel, he posted this video with comments about the place and time of video shooting, the characteristics of sounds, hitting the target and the consequences of hitting.

On July 23 and August 14, the blogger again removed the work of the air defense system. Thanks to the records published by him, it was possible to identify the location of the AFU fire groups, the number and type of equipment used.

At the court hearing, Zixian confirmed that he made videos during the shelling, recording the work of the air defense system, and posted the recordings on his own Youtube channel, where anyone could view them....

Posted by: sln2002 | Dec 3 2023 16:17 utc | 6

Winter will be bad news for the Ukrainians, certainly since Zelensky has ordered fortifications built.

https://nitter.net/simpatico771/status/1731068680866337146

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 3 2023 16:22 utc | 7

Interesting comment I picked up in Weeb Union's YT video. Who knows if it's true, but they said that Ukraine never fully mobilized. All the cushy IT workers are still sitting in Kiev sipping lattes while they slave away for Western corporations, or in support thereof.

Russia should have figured out that this is an economic war and Ukraine is trying to have it both ways- fight for their territory and protect a bunch of sissypants soi-boys. I say de-energize Kiev and take out all their Internet, and let's see those soi-boys fight.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Dec 3 2023 16:23 utc | 8

Russia can destroy Ukro IT industry by destroying electrical network.

Posted by: zorge | Dec 3 2023 16:32 utc | 9

Posted by: zorge | Dec 3 2023 16:32 utc | 11

Correct, so why haven't they? Looking at it from an outside angle, keeping the soi-boys as civilians, not fighting, does have one advantage for Russia - less meat to have to kill. ALthough I mock them, some of these IT workers could at least provide backline support or logistics for the real soldiers.

If Zelensky is lying and saying total mobilization, but people in Kiev know that the soi-boys still can code for IBM and the girls can party, that might explain why he's in trouble. An obvious liar and scoundrel.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Dec 3 2023 16:41 utc | 10

What interests me is the attitude of the typical Ukrainian soldier. I heard that in the Vietnam war some American conscripts felt that the war was futile and that lives were being lost needlessly. Some reacted by shooting or fragging officers. While the number of such incidents my have been tiny, the psychological impact was significant. Do any Ukrainian conscripts feel the same about their true enemies, or are they mostly willing recipients of the Darwin Award?

Posted by: Esser | Dec 3 2023 16:55 utc | 11

Battle for Avdeevka: “the noose is tightening.”

Thus, in the Avdeevsky sector, Russian troops slowly but surely continue to push through the defenses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. On the northern flank, the main clashes are taking place in the area of ​​the railway line near Stepovoy; fighting continues near the Avdeevsky coke plant, where for now the main efforts of the Russian Armed Forces are concentrated on the fire defeat of a powerful strong point.

Russian troops also successfully advanced south of Novokalinovo, occupying strongholds along the reservoir. Having advanced across the railway track, the position of the Russian Armed Forces significantly improved in the context of the attack on Novokalinovo.

To the west of Avdeevka, assault detachments of the Russian Armed Forces, supported by artillery and aviation, occupied important positions on the hills east of Severny. Similarly, it was possible to capture strongholds to the west, which worsens the position of the Ukrainian Armed Forces not only in Severny, but also in the south in Pervomaisky.

And we remind you that if Ukraine loses Avdiivka, Russian troops will enter operational space. Next are Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, plus left-bank Ukraine can be cut into two parts - two huge “cauldrons”. Therefore, the Ukrainian authorities are trying to save Avdiivka at any cost, transferring units there from other directions and exposing them.

But the losses in manpower and the successes of the Russian Armed Forces in the Avdeevsky sector affect the morale of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which simplifies the assault on the lines by Russian troops.


https://t.me/rezident_ua/20693

Posted by: Down South | Dec 3 2023 17:18 utc | 12

The Office of the President cannot stop the sabotage of the elites, which threatens the entire system of power during the period of vacuum of legitimacy since 03/31/24. You need to understand that Zelensky loses power according to the Constitution, and the Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada becomes acting president. That is why the elites have now become so active and created a united front against Bankova.

Excerpts from an interview with the mayor of Kyiv Vitaliy Klitschko to the Swiss media “20 Minuten”:

— About the president. Do you have ambitions for this post?

“It would be stupid to think about it today.” Today we are talking about whether Ukraine will exist at all. We are fighting for our freedom and independence. At the same time, our politicians are already waging trench warfare - in a country whose very existence is precarious. This is just stupid. Therefore, it would be unwise to talk about my political ambitions now.

— Are you surprised that the popularity of President Zelensky is falling, unlike the army?

- No.

- Why?

“People see who is effective and who is not.” And there were and are a lot of expectations. Zelensky is paying for the mistakes he made.

- What mistakes did he make?

“People ask themselves: Why weren’t we better prepared for this war? Why did Zelensky deny until the very end that this would happen? Why were the Russians able to get to Kyiv so quickly?” There was too much information that was not true. However, the President has an important role to play today, and we must support him until the end of the war. But at the end of this war, every politician will pay for his successes or failures.

— In one of his interviews, General Zaluzhny called the war a stalemate, for which he was sharply criticized. Did he make a mistake?

- No. He told the truth. Sometimes people don't want to hear the truth. But ultimately he is responsible. He explained and justified what is happening today. Of course, we can euphorically lie to our people and partners. But you can't do this forever. Some of our politicians criticize Zaluzhny for his clear words, and this is unfair. I support him.


https://t.me/rezident_ua/20697
The mayor of Kyiv is heating up the case of the confrontation between Zelensky and Zaluzhny. Choosing Zaluzhny's side. Rosary signal.

Klitschko, like us (we wrote on December 1), said that in an interview with The Economist, Zaluzhny told the truth about the state of the front and the situation in the country, and Bankovaya, on the contrary, tried to lie and embellish.

We would like to note that Klitschko will begin negotiations with Zaluzhny on a joint political project as early as December. The commander-in-chief hasn't said yes yet, but he hasn't said no yet either.


https://t.me/legitimniy/16820

Posted by: Down South | Dec 3 2023 17:21 utc | 13

The Russian military front is moving west.

Gerasimov is moving his forces from their dynamic defensive positions into, around and through the former defenses of the Ukies.

Kupyansk, Zaporozhye, Marinka, Rabochino, Avdiivka, Vremyevsky, and soon, Ugeldar and Serebryanskoe forest are next. Where there isn't a moving front west, firebags hold and annihilate the meat forced by Kiev into the Russian grinders.

Kleshcheyevka is one of those areas near Bakhmut. For nearly six months, this firebag alone has ground 10,000 Ukies into 200 cargo. Likely an equal number wounded and left uncounted. This is the area General Apti Alaudinov is deputy commander of Akhmat forces, now including 700 ex-Wagner assault troops.

Though the Ukies are frantically engineering defenses in depth, 40 km from the present front, they are being exploited as they dig and cement and place tiger teeth and carve trenches in the rain and soon freezing weather.

What Gerasimov knew, as he built force strength everywhere from 250,000 to 490,000, was the Ukies and NATO counted on the Ukies going eastward, and did not think the Russians had the force strength to break the Ukie line of defenses.

Now, those eight years in the making Ukie defenses, the final four prepared by US specialists personally, are crumbling under the heaviest bombing, persistent shelling and overwhelming assaults that counter and conquer Ukies at every move or their attempt to counter-assault the Russians.

Surovikin's line holds everywhere while the Pentagon and Brussels' lines are crumbling.

We know these facts now from MARAT's reports, and the daily news that the MOD allows the media to report.

What we don't know is will Gerasimov unleash a winter offensive or merely continue devouring the human assets the Ukies send to be ground into fertilizer. Men (boys, women and old men included) are dying by the many hundreds each day and look to add to the million already killed in behalf of American hegemony.

Gerasimov has impaled NATO and the Ukies on his many spears and pikes. From the Russian skies, Gerasimov unleashes thousands of FPV drones and Lancets to burn the armor the Ukies push into the kill zones. VKS owns the skies and hunt command posts, caches and formations.

It is war and there are Russian losses. But the ratio of Ukie:RF is now, in some of these zones 100:1 and some battles even worse for the Ukies.

Kiev has no hope, no chance, and is bleeding out its entire military along this 1000km front that consumes and conquers, attriting every weapon, every unit, every tactic thrown by the West.

Present Russian strategy seems to be to crush and burn, then move forward, crush and burn, etc., etc., etc.until total unconditional surrender or Ukraine exists no more.

The West is caught in the Gerasimov Jaws of Death, and the prey will die of its own accord, having stuck its neck in the Russian Bear's mouth.

https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2023/12/good-piece-from-scott.html#comment-6336560456

Posted by: Larch post | Dec 3 2023 17:22 utc | 14

https://www.rt.com/russia/588361-ukranian-elections-cancelled-us/ <=apparently the constitution in Ukraine allows to cancel or delay elections and that election has been activated so there will be no Nov election in Ukraine.

Posted by: snake | Dec 3 2023 17:25 utc | 15

What interests me is the attitude of the typical Ukrainian soldier. I heard that in the Vietnam war some American conscripts felt that the war was futile and that lives were being lost needlessly. Some reacted by shooting or fragging officers. While the number of such incidents my have been tiny, the psychological impact was significant. Do any Ukrainian conscripts feel the same about their true enemies, or are they mostly willing recipients of the Darwin Award?

Posted by: Esser | Dec 3 2023 16:55 utc | 13

That is all true, and the number of incidents was not tiny. They did studies, and then promptly forgot them.

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 3 2023 17:26 utc | 16

Why did the Ukrainian Armed Forces choose Krynki for the landing operation and what is its logic:

The fighting in this area of ​​the Kherson region continues. Even though holding a bridgehead is accompanied by large losses and requires the Armed Forces of Ukraine to increasingly expend resources, Ukrainian troops do not give up the idea of ​​clinging to the left bank of the Dnieper. Why was it decided to carry out the operation here?

Why do the Ukrainian Armed Forces cross over to the left bank so quickly?

The islands, through which the Konka River passes, serving as a transport corridor for Ukrainian military boats, provide natural cover for small landing groups. Inflatable boats need to overcome two dangerous sections: from Tyaginka to the islands and the Konka river branch (less than 3 km across the Dnieper), and then inside the Konka branch to the Krynok coastline (about 6 km).

The choice of high-speed boats as the main means of transportation is determined by speed. For example, a distance of 800 m at a speed of 25 km/h can be covered by a boat with a motor in less than two minutes, and 2 km (including downstream) in five minutes. Not even the most modern artillery fire system in any army in the world is capable of reacting so quickly.

FPV drones are a relatively quick way (with early detection) to target boats in motion, but much of this depends on the skill of the UAV operator and other factors, including weather. The main losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are from artillery and loitering ammunition at loading and unloading sites.

Why Krynki?

On the bank of the Dnieper near Tyaginka, from where the Ukrainian Armed Forces carry out forays to the left bank, there are convenient access roads to the river and roads leading to the shore. Tyaginka itself is a relatively large, by local standards, settlement on the right bank, which is used as a concentration area and for sheltering supplies and personnel. However, the scale of the operation remains extremely limited, despite the deployment of large amounts of resources.

To carry out a larger landing operation with the transfer of dozens of units of equipment with the current equipment and strength of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, it would be necessary to transfer a significant number of air defense systems to Kherson and accumulate an even larger number of artillery than now. But this would only be half the story since the forces would have to be kept in the crossing area for a long time.

This option was marked as unviable - not only due to a lack of forces and means but also due to the quite successful strikes of the Russian Armed Forces on the engineering units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson region.

In particular, it was reported earlier about the attacks on the pontoon-bridge park. For these reasons, they decided to resist the firepower of the RF Armed Forces by maneuver and dispersal. It is this principle that underlies any Ukrainian version of the use of small groups.

Does this tactic work or not?

Judging by the fact that a major landing operation was most likely disrupted, the boats are Plan B for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area. The main disadvantage of using boats and the entire scheme is that the watercraft are extremely vulnerable and after the organization of the bridgehead, the entire scheme was strictly tied to the southern exit in Tyaginka, which is under surveillance and shelling by the Russian Armed Forces around the clock.

Only those boats that fall within the artillery reloading window or temporarily disappear from the field of view of the UAV operators manage to slip across the Dnieper.

Another disadvantage of using boats is their low carrying capacity (about 400 kg, and in some cases even less). Simply put, in the understanding of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, boats are “river pickups” that are used as mosquito logistics. The low carrying capacity increases the need for vehicles: about ten boats are required to ferry 30-40 people with supplies.


https://t.me/geromanat/14673

Posted by: Down South | Dec 3 2023 17:27 utc | 17

Part II

Why did the Ukrainian Armed Forces choose Krynki for the landing operation and what is its logic:

In the first part, we talked about the mechanics of this operation and the conditions under which and for what reasons the boats were chosen for it. Now we need to discuss all the problems that arise when implementing this scenario and go into detail.

What is the volume of logistics for the Ukrainian Armed Forces landing force in Krynki?

Each boat carries up to five people (one returns with the boat). In ten trips, such a boat can transport about a platoon to the left bank, which is relatively large, provided that there are significantly more boats from the Ukrainian Armed Forces side than five or even ten. However, the Ukrainian troops are constantly faced with a dilemma: take more people or take more supplies? 5-7 tons of ammunition and equipment that can fit in a standard truck is approximately 10-12 boats with cargo. On the scale of supporting large operations, the volume of equipment, food, and ammunition in one truck is a negligible amount, which a full-blooded platoon cannot defend for 12 hours.

Let us emphasize that we are talking about small infantry units. The presence of artillery or heavy equipment increases the supply requirements by a couple of orders of magnitude.

Terrain and opportunities for maneuver of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Krynki.

After the landing and the start of hostilities, other features of Krynok appear. The village is suitable for transporting small groups of infantry, but there are no conditions for transporting armored vehicles necessary for fire support of the infantry. For example, in the Krynok region, the area is marshy and replete with many rivers and streams.

The transfer of heavy equipment or vehicles is impossible without the construction of a more or less stable crossing. For this, it is necessary to attract significant engineering and sapper forces, the accumulation of which would inevitably be opened. In these conditions, Ukrainian tanks are actively used from the higher bank of the Dnieper, however, even this equipment cannot operate in complete safety and is already being hit by Lancet drones and aircraft.

Why was this operation planned?

Even if this area was chosen not as a point for a strike on the flank of the Russian Armed Forces group, but as a tool for pinning down reserves, questions arise about such a plan. First of all, the Armed Forces of Ukraine need to attract more or the same amount of forces and resources to support their units, which are currently in short supply. Secondly, the operation has already been delayed until winter. At the moment, the operation in the Krynok region means being in a swamp in winter, constantly crossing the icy waters of the Dnieper and is accompanied by the growing need for troops for fuel, heating, medicine, and evacuation of the sick, which complement the daily sanitary losses from the fire of the Russian Armed Forces.

The landing operation in Krynki, without a doubt, required the involvement of significant resources from the RF Armed Forces, but it should not be overestimated and endowed with non-existent properties. The original plan most likely involved the transfer of larger forces, but the proactive actions of the Russian army allowed the Ukrainian Armed Forces to reduce their options to the transfer of small groups and the blocking of narrow and inconvenient bridgeheads.

What's the result?

For several months, the operation in Krynki has not been scaled up, is not properly supplied, and, judging by what is happening, is far from the initial plans of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this direction. However, at the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are not curtailing the operation, although its tactical senselessness is becoming more and more obvious, like the previous landing at the Antonovsky Bridge.


https://t.me/Slavyangrad/76948

Posted by: Down South | Dec 3 2023 17:30 utc | 18

Re: Bemildred # 18

If a Ukranian conscript is considering redirecting mortar fire towards his own HQ (possibly as retaliation, possibly in hopes that an absense of leadership will motivate retreat to a more defensible position) does he stop to calculate the odds of detection and a firing squad, or under the influence of stimulants does he just say "The hell with it"? Some Viet vets were pretty high. Is friendly fire easier or tougher to detect than 50 years ago? Just curious...

Posted by: Esser | Dec 3 2023 18:04 utc | 19

If a Ukranian conscript is considering redirecting mortar fire towards his own HQ (possibly as retaliation, possibly in hopes that an absense of leadership will motivate retreat to a more defensible position) does he stop to calculate the odds of detection and a firing squad, or under the influence of stimulants does he just say "The hell with it"? Some Viet vets were pretty high. Is friendly fire easier or tougher to detect than 50 years ago? Just curious...

Posted by: Esser | Dec 3 2023 18:04 utc | 19

The general idea back then was to roll a grenade into their tent while sleeping. The case numbers I remember now were like 3000. Freaked the brass out as it should. They were indeed high, many of them, I knew a lot of vets, they were my co-workers and friends, they showed me pictures.

At this point in Ukraine I don't think it matters much how detectable it is. I expect a lot of them are "high" on something too. War is like that.

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 3 2023 18:14 utc | 20

"...It is established that on May 4, 2023, Zixian made a video recording of the air defense work in Odessa from the window of his apartment. After that, on his own YouTube channel, he posted this video with comments about the place and time of video shooting, the characteristics of sounds, hitting the target and the consequences of hitting.
On July 23 and August 14, the blogger again removed the work of the air defense system. Thanks to the records published by him, it was possible to identify the location of the AFU fire groups, the number and type of equipment used.

At the court hearing, Zixian confirmed that he made videos during the shelling, recording the work of the air defense system, and posted the recordings on his own Youtube channel, where anyone could view them...."

Posted by: sln2002 | Dec 3 2023 16:17 utc | 7
------------------------------------------------------------

I thak it is great; Kudos to Zixian. So, do you agree with "slobber Ukraine"? Is Zixian a bad guy. or a simi-hero?

Posted by: Ed | Dec 3 2023 18:23 utc | 21

Down South 18: That's exactly the problem with the Ukrainian military leadership: When it comes to the actions of this army leadership, the main focus is always on whether they can be sold well in the media, because they believe that this is the only way NATO will fight on their side at some point. But that is grotesque nonsense. And Russia has no interest in clearing out their bridgeheads, because it's not easier to inflict big losses on them.

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Dec 3 2023 18:24 utc | 22

We must realise that the real crisis is just starting now and the first consequence may be a sharp split in our societies - maybe resulting in a "European Spring".
Sorry for repeating the obvious, but it may be time to sober up with strong coffee in the bar :-\

Posted by: Baddy | Dec 3 2023 14:27 utc | 1

No need to apologize. I think your right about a societal split coming into the open in the west soon. But, such things happen throughout history and if not led by a conscious element with clear objectives, strategy and clever tactics..they just dissipate and are co-opted by some RC stooges.

Actually, that's how we ended up with the modern human rights imperialists of the Democrat wing of the political elite. A very real societal split occured on the imperial war on Vietnam, opposition to segregation, etc. Elements of the anti war leadership migrated to high positions in the US government and created the virtue signalling, idpol obsessed political window dressing for today's genocide of the Palestinians, nuclear chicken with Russia and aspirations to crush the world's leading economy, China.

Long story short, real victory or death revolutionary class leadership (marxist) is required this time, not a bunch of privileged college students pandering to minorities, preaching sex as liberation and striking che Guevara poses.

There is only one social force in the US with the power to unseat the imperialists and end the wars: the working class. It must regain it's unity, ally with workers internationally and take power this time.

A US government of, for and by the American working class is the only solution.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Dec 3 2023 18:32 utc | 23

https://t.me/NovichokRossiya/42404

The Ukrainian Armed Forces reported new combat equipment for the Geranium loitering ammunition: they allegedly began to install a thermobaric warhead weighing 40 kg

A 40 kg thermobaric charge with three fuses was found in the wreckage of the UAV. According to Ukrainian media, this is an analogue of the charge of the Solntsepek heavy flamethrower system.

https://t.me/milinfolive/111898

Ukrainian resources post photographs of “camouflage shells” that were allegedly used by Russian fighters to approach Ukrainian positions in the Ugledar direction.

According to the enemy, these structures are not detected in a thermal imager.

https://t.me/milinfolive/111905

Russian tracked drone with electronic warfare "Volnorez", used on the front line to evacuate the wounded, transport ammunition, supplies and other cargo.

Also, perhaps precisely thanks to the installed electronic warfare system, attempts to destroy the drone by enemy FPV kamikazes were unsuccessful, as can be seen in the video. One drone simply missed, and the second crashed unsuccessfully and fell apart.

https://t.me/milinfolive/111920

It is reported that Ansar Allah militants attacked the bulk carrier Unity Explorer and the vessel Number Nine in the Red Sea.

An anti-ship missile was launched at the first ship, the second ship was attacked by a kamikaze drone, probably Shahed-131/136.

The Pentagon also announced an attempt to fire at the US Navy destroyer USS Carney.

Kinda dumb lie, wonder what Pants-are-gone fantasists will say if the Houthi’s actually do start firing at US warships?

Posted by: anon2020 | Dec 3 2023 18:37 utc | 24

The Ukrainians percieve this war as a war of identity. Their identity is defibedby hating everything Russian. So the shall bravely continue untill Russia is forced yo use nuclear weapons.
Russia canot defear Ukraine when in defansive posture.

Posted by: zorge | Dec 3 2023 18:39 utc | 25

The Ukrainians percieve this war as a war of identity. Their identity is defibedby hating everything Russian. So the shall bravely continue untill Russia is forced to use nuclear weapons.
Russia canot defear Ukraine when in defansive posture.

Posted by: zorge | Dec 3 2023 18:40 utc | 26

Russia can destroy Ukro IT industry by destroying electrical network.

Posted by: zorge | Dec 3 2023 16:32 utc | 9
----------------------------------------------------------

What about gas fueled electrical generators, like Generac? Why wouldn't that keep them connected to their (Elon Musk's) satellites? I am sure they have a backup system already: Don't you?

Posted by: Ed | Dec 3 2023 18:46 utc | 27

Re: zorge
So the Ukrainian attitude is that "my identity is more important to me than Truth, Justice, or my own life"? Sounds like you support 200,000 posthumous citations of the Darwin Award?

Posted by: Esser | Dec 3 2023 18:55 utc | 28

A full-spectrum surprise attack on another country by the collective West.
Posted by: Baddy | Dec 3 2023 14:27 utc | 1

It's hard to picture who would be surprised by this, other than heavily propagandized western sheep. This 'surprise attack' has been going on since 1917. There are lulls in the fighting, it changes shape according to the capabilities of the opposing forces, but it has been continuous for 125 years now. Putin was certainly not surprised by it, he was preparing for it since he came to power in 1999.

The larger struggles of the imperialist powers against each other and the world have been going on much longer, and the 247 year War of American Imperial Expansion has never ceased either- it is now targeting Europe.

Posted by: Honzo | Dec 3 2023 18:56 utc | 29

The Ukrainians percieve this war as a war of identity. Their identity is defibedby hating everything Russian. So the shall bravely continue untill Russia is forced to use nuclear weapons.
Russia canot defear Ukraine when in defansive posture.

Posted by: zorge | Dec 3 2023 18:40 utc | 26

Going on the defensive does not magically solve large resource imbalances and given that the West has refused to mobilize and ukrainian soldiers don't exactly grow on trees it merely buys more time.

Posted by: Satepestage | Dec 3 2023 18:56 utc | 30

Posted by: zorge | Dec 3 2023 18:40 utc | 26


speak german... idiot

Posted by: Macpott | Dec 3 2023 18:59 utc | 31

speak german... idiot

Posted by: Macpott | Dec 3 2023 18:59 utc | 31

Is it worth replying to a stupid comment proposing to use a nuclear weapon? Shows a complete ignorance of the Russian dusha.

Posted by: Naive | Dec 3 2023 19:14 utc | 32

Posted by: Naive | Dec 3 2023 19:14 utc | 32

its a german joke, the grammatics were awful

Posted by: Macpott | Dec 3 2023 19:17 utc | 33

Here, and elsewhere, I see a lot of people talking about the stupidity of Ukrainian leadership. While I don't claim that they geniuses, it seems to me that in order to call them 'stupid' it's necessary to have an obvious and coherent plan that could have been adopted with better results. There are only two: Before the war, stop murdering Russian speakers and implement Minsk; After the SMO started, surrender. The actions of the Ukrainian leadership can only be evaluated in the context of the ideological drivers, the bribery and the coercion from the west excluding any and every sensible action. The correlation of forces always favored Russia and it's friends, even though the SMO kicked off with very few troops mobilized. Putin, it could be argued, made some tactical errors that resulted in the war we have now, but on the other hand, on the level of geopolitical grand strategy, this is the war Russia and the entire Axis of Resistance needs to begin the process of dismantling American hegemony. Putin reputed to be a long-term thinker, and Xi certainly is, so a very reasonable argument can be made that A) Putin was forced to launch the SMO when he did to preempt plans by west to launch a major attack eastward to reclaim Donbass, which would have forced Russia to fight in its own territory (in which I include Donbass) rather than in Ukraine; B) Putin had no expectation that Kiev would sign, let alone implement, the agreement of spring, 2022; C) therefore, the withdrawal from Kiev was planned as part of the SMO, to extend the war to break EU economically and expose the weakness of the west to the Global South. D) Every one of Putins declarations and actions on the ground since the retreat from Kiev have been part of this 'hybrid war' against the hegemon. Results certainly support this view.

Under these circumstances, the only alternative to what the Nazis have done would be to either surrender or lose the war faster. They have never had the resources to do otherwise, and the west is unable to provide them. So, yes, they are stupid for being Nazis, and for being tools of the Hegemon, but beyond that, they simply haven't had any good choices.

Posted by: Honzo | Dec 3 2023 19:24 utc | 34

Posted by: Macpott | Dec 3 2023 19:17 utc | 33

I understood.

Posted by: Naive | Dec 3 2023 19:34 utc | 35

I think your right about a societal split coming into the open in the west soon. But, such things happen throughout history and if not led by a conscious element with clear objectives, strategy and clever tactics..they just dissipate and are co-opted by some RC stooges.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Dec 3 2023 18:32 utc | 23

This is the crux, and the American elites have been incredibly successful at preventing a true working-class movement from emerging. However, they can't clever their way out of the inherent contradictions of capitalism, and destroying the labor movement by offshoring to China and Mexico is now biting them in the ass. So, while there is no indication that a people's democracy can appear in the US any time soon, the collapse of the material foundation of the current power structure is imminent. Many of the world's (and the US's) problems can be solved if we get a faux revolution by people with enough sense to take a step back and take a deep breath. Trump, whatever he may or may not be in his heart of hearts, has become the focus of many of those forces, who think that nuclear war is bad for business, if nothing else, and don't happen to profit from arms sales. So, perhaps a period of relatively tranquil reactionary industrial capitalism, in which profit will acrue from rebuilding the US, is before us. Okay, probably not, but hey, I'm trying to look on the bright side.

Posted by: Honzo | Dec 3 2023 19:37 utc | 36

Muslims are not important in Chinese history or society
Posted by: lester | Dec 3 2023 16:02 utc | 5

I know that statement is not true now nor was it true for 1000 years that imams toured the "orient". And at the moment, I'm reading a British [!] annotated English translation (ed. 1908) of The Travels of Marco Polo, the Venetian—from "early" French and Italian translations of the original Latin manuscript disputing 15th cen. Mandeville, 18th cen. Marsden and Wright translations and transliterations of "Tatary" place names. LOL!

Still, I question how come Zelensk* now (ATO Y10) believes, muslims are an important element of Ukraine history or society amid an OUN revival to purge 'slav' pretenders from 'kiev rus' sovereign territory, and pseudo-hellenic christian orthodoxy. OUN scientific racism and hagiography is pretty murky. Apart from narrating the long arc of "ruscist" attempts to "forcibly deport" people of the Tartar persuasion from Ukraine's erstwhile Autonomous Region (Crimea) to central asian, ahem, enclaves, I wonder:

Q1: (a) How many Crimean Tartars were bona fide NAZI collaborators? (b) How many Crimean Tatars "displaced" by WwII returned to Ukraine after 1946? After 1991 independence? (c) Of those who resisted waves of "occupation", how many "mountain" Tatars?

Q2: (a) Why did Zelensk* show up for his first ever appear at the Arab League summit with Mustafa Dzhemilev, representatives of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people, in tow—(b) instead of the illustrious Chairman of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people IRefat Chubarov?

Q2: How long have European collaborators in Ukraine been grooming Rustem Umerov, in particular, to assume the role of Ukraine's defense minister?

Umerov is locally identified as one of Dzhemilev' advisers. Andalou claims that his family returned from Uzbekistan shortly before the USSR collapse in '89. His assignment to Ukraine's delegations to PACE and intermittent Moscow peace talks is not well known. Neither is the rationale for blocking water to "mostly muslim" Crimea back in 2014. Gathering open sources, I note with interest Turkish press attention to details.

This year having accumulated WB Group leadership credentials. Oddly enough, on the occasion of his September promotion, Umerov chose a BPJ tabloid to assert

“Russian propagandists invented the narrative of dividing the Ukrainian nation into ethnics to justify their military actions on the territory of our country,” said Umerov last year in an interview to Jordanian news site Amman Net. “We do not feel any chauvinism or Islamophobia [in Ukraine] regarding our ethnicity or religion,” he said."
This is an ironic, amusing statement considering Umerov's pre-MOD, civil mission to facilitate integration of Ukraine's most distinguished "national minority" into ROW's perception of Ukrainian political "identity".

Q3: Which of the three do most Crimean Tatars speak and write?

Posted by: sln2002 | Dec 3 2023 19:38 utc | 37

Altaic languages for historic linguistics learners

Posted by: sln2002 | Dec 3 2023 19:39 utc | 38

Putin, it could be argued, made some tactical errors that resulted in the war we have now, but on the other hand, on the level of geopolitical grand strategy, this is the war Russia and the entire Axis of Resistance needs to begin the process of dismantling American hegemony.

Posted by: Honzo | Dec 3 2023 19:24 utc | 34

To be able to criticise someone, one must know all what this someone knows.

Which errors did Putin do? Please, advise.

Posted by: Naive | Dec 3 2023 19:39 utc | 39

by Larch post | Dec 3 2023 17:22 utc | 14

Thanks for this.
Although I really appreciate Martyanov and his Soviet/RF warfare expertise, sometimes he just opens the champagne too soon.

I agree, mostly along his wishes, but AFU is still functioning in a way, being detached from NATO HQ, maybe even better. Bilogorovka and Seversk line is very strong for 2 years already, Ukrainian/NATO EW is strong on a few important points, while RF's EW is not set up fast enough and sometimes not powerful enough.

The reason might be, especially in the Southern front, reluctance to adjust proper power as civilian air corridors are not far, but maybe not.

There are almost no NATO ISR missions, as those were 24/7 during the "counteroffensive" and spectacular missile and drone strikes. HIMARS still strikes here and there hi value targets, which is still painful a bit.
Ukrainian army will fist devolve into the private military companies mixed with NATO official troops.
Failing to create any sustainable and steady defense, it'll hold the line sometime
So no cigar, yet.
When comrade Martyanov starts talking big arrows and armies and the Black Sea fleet actions, I will listen very carefully.

Posted by: whirlX | Dec 3 2023 19:44 utc | 40

Posted by: zorge | Dec 3 2023 18:39 utc | 25

#############

Ukraine, like Israel, ceases to exist the moment that Western support is withdrawn.

That countdown clock ticks louder and louder every day.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 3 2023 19:52 utc | 41

@Bemildred #16

"That is all true, and the number of incidents was not tiny. They did studies, and then promptly forgot them."

Did they forget them? Or did they institute new policies that would control all information getting to the grunts?

We know that the Vietnam war led to big changes in how the press was dealt with.

Posted by: Billb | Dec 3 2023 20:11 utc | 42

Did they forget them? Or did they institute new policies that would control all information getting to the grunts?

We know that the Vietnam war led to big changes in how the press was dealt with.

Posted by: Billb | Dec 3 2023 20:11 utc | 41

They certainly did not implement the indicated reforms. As you say, they treated it as a PR problem. Despite the fact that bullshit did not do the job in Vietnam, they doubled down on it, and still do.

The grunts then were motivated by the correct observation that their lives were being wasted by fools. They were correct then, and the grunts in Ukraine are correct in that observation now.

Things are far from copacetic in the US military today, but the officer class is still smug as can be.

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 3 2023 20:25 utc | 43

As the FEBA is attritted of its defenders and those remaining need to defend ever more ground, it becomes much easier for Russians to advance, which is what we're seeing. And in the cold wet snowy trench lines, it becomes harder for Ukie troops to get motivated as the days move on and the Russian pressure continues unabated. The difference is huge between the conditions of the two sides: The Russians are well rotated, fed hot food and drink, get to sleep and are properly clothed while the Ukies don't get rotated, eat cold food and drink, get very little sleep and are often improperly clothed. Getting rotated is huge for morale as you get a respite, hot showers, new uniforms and boots, hot food and drink, and an opportunity to communicate with family. And when it's time to return to the line, you're ready and motivated.

Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 3 2023 20:27 utc | 44

Posted by: whirlX | Dec 3 2023 19:44 utc | 39

The German Army was able to launch three major offensives, months before its eventual collapse, similarly Ukraine will fight on till it cannot, or the present leadership is removed. Russia has no incentive, other than pleasing the army of internet generals, to change the tempo of her operations, or deviate from her long term strategic goals. If there is going to be a change, then it will be due to external stimuli or operationally pre-planned, not the battlefield performance of the UAF, who are now largely operationally irrelevant and whose tactical capabilities lack any uniformity or consistency.

Unless analysts are party to closed source information any predictions should be generalised and largely based on previous known knowns. Compounding this issue is the very nature of conflicts, where rival narratives battle it out for supremacy and cloud the issue, to all those who are not taking an overtly ideological position. Russia has made numerous mistakes in the SMO and the original plan did not survive contact; however they have made fewer mistakes and recovered quicker than Ukraine, whose original plan equally failed and who have made countless more errors. Similarly, Russia has learned from her mistakes, whilst Ukraine has repeated there’s, that is why we are where we are today, with Ukraine clinging on and Russia inexorably increasing the pressure.

With a cold front moving in and the ground conditions soon able to support large armoured deployments, who knows what Moscow is planning, a continuation or a coup-de-grace. One thing’s for certain, amateur analysts will find out for certain when the rest of the world does. MoA does an excellent job of bringing together disparate views (though there tends to be an attempt by some to enforce a political orthodoxy) that greatly help in predicting trends; however, and it’s a big however, this communion of ideas should never be mistaken for anything more than that.

Posted by: Milites | Dec 3 2023 20:49 utc | 45

So, do you agree with "slobber Ukraine"? Is Zixian a bad guy. or a simi-hero?
Posted by: Ed | Dec 3 2023 18:23 utc | 21

No and no.

I am entertained by the fact that Strana (banned of course by Rada, Thompson Foundation, etc 2022) frequently reports such patent, clumsy executions by Ukrainian nationalists of each. and. every. article of the European Convention on "Human Rights". (This September Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs deported the Chinese delegation that brought the Russian-singing diva.) I am entertained by the fact MEPs, EUCO, and European American presses ignore all of them—not just Chinese envoys for civil society but Europe's credentialed reporters in Donbas killed or injured by UAF artillery or deported from UA-controlled regions. If you don't recall the Odesa massacre of '14, you might recall that signature incident last year, when Odesa's civilians captured a Dutch journalist who broadcast RF artillery strikes? That incident kind of disturbed the stupor afflicting antac.org.ua and ifj.org.

I may be in the minority at MoA when I say, Odessa will not be an easy in to Novorossiya. For all the caterwallin' over Catherine, it's not on the Kremlin's list of priorities for reasons.

Posted by: sln2002 | Dec 3 2023 21:00 utc | 46

The Ukrainian people have been heavily propagandized and certain segments of the population have been as isolated as possible from the war. Russia’s restraint has helped make the latter possible as it’s still possible to go on with life in some form of normality as long as you’re not in a military installation.

Politically it has allowed Zelensky and all of Bankova to carry on. But it also makes them deeply dependent on the war continuing. If it were to end everyone might start discussing things besides the evil Russians. So the greatest danger begins now. Winter might be more trying than last year, the foreign money that keeps enough people happy is slowing and now we’re seeing pretty extreme political maneuvering. It’s a growing feedback loop. Any political upheaval begins to affect attitudes at the front, any significant defeat at the front affects political moods.

I’m still unwilling to offer hard predictions about when and exactly how but things are beginning to unravel more noticeably than ever before and I don’t think it can be stopped at this point. Merely a question of how fast and how far it unravels, nor do I think anyone is fully in control of the situation.

Posted by: Lex | Dec 3 2023 21:20 utc | 47

Military Summery had some Russian released video of a new ground drone they are using, big enough to bring supplies and ammo to a front line, it can also (picture a gurney) carry a wounded soldier from the front line instead of requiring human resources. It was also equipped with EW jamming equipment making it less susceptible to drone attack from the air.
Great potential for also delivering a bang to enemy trenches.....modern warfare, the books yet to be written.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Dec 3 2023 21:20 utc | 48

zorge @26: "The Ukrainians percieve this war as a war of identity. Their identity is defibedby hating everything Russian."

Sure, but "identity" is just something people imagine. Sometimes that imagined self is based upon something tangible, like skin tone (as stupid as that may be), and other times on intangible things like cultural history (think things like living in yurts or making clothing from llama wool). In the case of the Ukraine, though, the Russia-hating part of their cultural history, and indeed most of what passes for Ukrainian culture, is entirely fake. Any "identity" built on fake cultural heritage can only ever be fake itself.

Note that foot binding used to be part of Chinese "identity". Nobody does that anymore in China, and foot binding was real culture and not fake.

Identities can and do change, `specially when those identities are fake, self-destructive, and corrosive (like Ukrainian nazism) and get beaten out of you.

Anyway, what do the lunatic Ukrainians think they are going to do? Lift their country up by its bootstraps and shuffle it over next to Miami? They need to grow up and learn to live peacefully with their neighbors because the Russians are not going anywhere.

Posted by: William Gruff | Dec 3 2023 21:27 utc | 49

I'll guess that the more sensible types among Ukraine's leadership are worrying more and more about how events in Palestine mean that if Russia were to start taking down their electrical grid, their allies in the western media would have a hard time getting their readers and viewers to see that as a big deal.

Not that Russian is ever driven by the desires of those who handle its PR communiques, but they do care about the opinion of their allies, friends, and business partners, and I don't think any amount of bleating by the Western press will cause much concern from them, not in today geopolitical climate.

Though naturally we all want the civilians of cities like Kiev to get through this war alright. Hopefully there are ways to eliminate the electrical supply to industries without leaving city centers uninhabitable. But yeah, if Russia starts hitting Ukraine's electric grid with great effect, I'd expect people to not want to trust in Zelenskyy handling the situation, and instead elect to emigrate.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Dec 3 2023 21:51 utc | 50

Anyway, what do the lunatic Ukrainians think they are going to do?

Posted by: William Gruff | Dec 3 2023 21:27 utc | 49

Defeat the russians and join the Garden. For that they will fight fanatically or at least shove each other to the front until the bottom falls out, I suppose at some point next year or early 2025 depending on their demographics and western resources. Given the mindset I encountered already back in 2014 I expect nothing less.

Posted by: Satepestage | Dec 3 2023 21:56 utc | 51

"...there tends to be an attempt by some to enforce a political orthodoxy..." Milites@ 45

Consider the proposition that political orthodoxy in our society consists of a denial of any alternatives to the conventional wisdom of "common sense."
A political orthodoxy, that claims to be founded on empirical observation of capitalist class society.

Posted by: bevin | Dec 3 2023 22:12 utc | 52

I think that if Russia starts going all in on its offensive operation, apart from its immediate logistic goals it won't be about moving up to take on Ukrainian forces as much as it would be a battle of maneuver warfare, one that compelled Ukraine to move about on the battlefield a large part of its heavy equipment. I think Russia has grown to have an extreme confidence in its ability to outfight Ukraine in a battle of drone warfare, and Russia by moving its pieces out and about will compel Ukraine to counter that by moving out of cover, and into range, the bulk of it's tracked vehicles, and other heavy equipment.

I see Russia as wanting to attrit every asset that the AFU has at the front before engaging with them head-on on a vast scale, or by driving to punch through Ukrainian fortified positions.

Lol, I guess I'm just saying that Russia will build on what it's doing now, which looks to be working to great effect.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Dec 3 2023 22:13 utc | 53

by: Milites | Dec 3 2023 20:49 utc | 45

Yes, great post.
Nazi German army in the late '44, early '45, at least in the West, was pretty much able to do stuff, but it run out of the fuel.
Agreed there entirely with you, as a sofa strategists and armchair generals' predictions filter through to the best educated guess, with a mil-showtime imagined. Danger is that imagination becomes the news. further becoming the gossip, rumor, disinfo, and nobody has a real idea on how and why is that happening, but the message is sent.

In the last 2 years of "drang nach ost" many people in the West walked away from the national and mainstream news and none of the emerging commentators could basically guess anything or decipher the chaos as it was presented. That applies to the Germany in the WWII and it applies to the NATO today.

I am inclined adding, to what you write, that pretty much the whole RF Army is also eagerly waiting for a bigger scale conflict, each segment of it, and for various reasons. Incitation is there, as it takes awhile to boil the nation in it. Tech military wing wants to see the weapons doing stuff, tactical planning wants to see results, statistics and modelling, generals are not happy if they are stopped until they feel comfortable with the West's 'surrender state and a shape'.
Winning, as the only option for generals, initiates process of giving it up further the line to the RF leadership to make a political peace with the stable military result.

From there one can draw different stuff and paint it appropriate, as a liberation or an occupation, but that is the destiny of a fundamental political basis that might not be swiftly ironed out. Between the East and the West, that is.

And then, as an icing, comes a request from the general public and their expectations on being well protected by RF.
The time to make plans on how to stop RF is gone for the NATO and if it is well stocked, it'll prolong the conflict and make it worse, and if it is depleted, a surrender, as the suicide is not a sustainable option, would be a wise move now.

Posted by: whirlX | Dec 3 2023 22:49 utc | 54

Which errors did Putin do? Please, advise.

Posted by: Naive | Dec 3 2023 19:39 utc | 39

My contention is that he did not make tactical errors, I think that's clear in the post- those things that many people cite as tactical errors, such as failing to take Kiev, withdrawing troops before the treaty was signed, withdrawing from Kherson and Kharkov, and not employing Shock and Awe were good decisions on the geopolitical level. The failure of sanctions, their back-fire effect on Europe and the US own economies, the collateral damage to the global south from the sanctions and the exposure of the deep connections between the 'democratic west' and the ukronazis are all things that required time to unfold and would not have been achieved if the war had ended in April with a largely intact Ukraine still attached to US/NATO and governed by nazis.

The kick-off date for kinetic war may have been dictated by the west, but the grand strategy has been in the works since 1999.

Posted by: Honzo | Dec 3 2023 22:55 utc | 55


Re: zorge
So the Ukrainian attitude is that "my identity is more important to me than Truth, Justice, or my own life"? Sounds like you support 200,000 posthumous citations of the Darwin Award?

Posted by: Esser | Dec 3 2023 18:55 utc | 28

Unfortunately that is how problems of identity are seen in Eastern Europe.
When you have minority complex, then identity is everything. Ukrainians dream of being something better, that they are closer to the divine West.
By losing, they lose more then value of their lives.

Posted by: zorge | Dec 3 2023 23:06 utc | 56

Putin, it could be argued, made some tactical errors that resulted in the war we have now, but on the other hand, on the level of geopolitical grand strategy, this is the war Russia and the entire Axis of Resistance needs to begin the process of dismantling American hegemony.

Posted by: Honzo | Dec 3 2023 19:24 utc | 34

To be able to criticise someone, one must know all what this someone knows.

Which errors did Putin do? Please, advise.

Posted by: Naive | Dec 3 2023 19:39 utc | 39

Where do we start...

And they weren't "tactical" errors, they were huge **strategic** blunders.

The Ukraine problem should have been aggressively solved as soon as the Orange Revolution happened. What did the Kremlin do then? Worse than nothing.

Here is a report from an insider about the parallel development in Georgia at the time:

https://vk.com/wall701885602_84188

In the nineties and early 2000s, I often visited Adjara, when the chairman of the Supreme Council of the republic was Aslan Abashidze, who, as it now turned out, was the last major pro-Russian politician in Georgia.

In those years, the attitude towards Russians there was amazing; such a cordial attitude towards them was not found anywhere else in the CIS. This was due to the fact that the 145th motorized rifle division of the Russian army was based on the territory of Adjara, which was later transformed into the 12th military base in Batumi.

In the 90s, this division played a huge role in the fact that Adjara turned out to be the only region of Georgia where there were no horrors of the civil war of 1992 - 1994. It was the tanks of the 145th motorized rifle division, at the request of the leader of Adjara, Aslan Abashidze, that defeated the gangs of Zviad Gamsakhurdia, who were moving towards Adjara.

And as a result of this, not a single shot was fired on the territory of Adjara in all subsequent years and to this day. Considering this circumstance, the attitude of local residents towards our military personnel was surprising. Many of them told me that after finishing their military service they would like to stay and live in Adjara, where they are treated better than even in Russia. And Aslan Ibragimovich Abashidze, who enjoyed great support from the population of the republic in those years, played a huge role in these sentiments.

But, as they say, everything was going fine until the General Staff intervened. In the fall of 2003, the internal political situation in Georgia sharply worsened. The then President of Georgia, Eduard Shevardnadze, who played a huge negative role in the collapse of the USSR, due to a number of circumstances, tried to sit on two chairs, simultaneously focusing on both Russia and the United States.

But the United States, trying to squeeze the Russian Federation out of Transcaucasia, actively supported the anti-Russian young politician Mikheil Saakashvili, who organized a coup in Tbilisi in November 2003. By personal order of Russian President V. Putin, the then Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov urgently flew to Tbilisi.

Shevardnadze counted on his support, especially since Russian troops were still in Georgia. But quite unexpectedly, he supported Saakashvili and convinced Shevardnadze to resign. Thus, with the support of Russia, anti-Russian pro-American forces led by Saakashvili won in Georgia.

The only Georgian politician who spoke out against Saakashvili’s coup was the leader of Adjara, Aslan Abashidze. He counted on the support of Moscow and flew to the capital of the Russian Federation, meeting with the leadership of the Russian Federation. He warned about the danger of Saakashvili’s pro-American course and assured of his readiness to resist him. Until the declaration of independence of Adjara.

In those days, given my excellent personal relationship with Abashidze, I was taken on a special flight to Batumi. State Duma deputy Andrei Savelyev was sent on a business trip to Batumi with me. Aslan Ibrahimovich flew with us to Batumi on the same special flight. Apparently, we, as State Duma deputies, played the role of a human shield, since Saakashvili made an official statement that he gave the order to shoot down the plane carrying Abashidze. A day later, Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov, who also had excellent personal relations with Abashidze, also flew to Batumi.

Our task was to show the population of Adjara support for Russia. But I understood perfectly well that in reality there would be no support, since Putin for some reason relied on Mikheil Saakashvili. And I openly spoke about this to Abashidze. He didn't believe it. Said. that he is the last pro-Russian politician of this level in Georgia. Doesn’t the Kremlin really understand that the United States wants to force Russia to leave Transcaucasia? Does Russia really not need Transcaucasia? All I could do was throw up my hands.

And I was right. A month after our departure from Batumi, Igor Ivanov, with the rank of Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, flew there on the personal orders of V. Putin and presented Abashidze with an ultimatum to resign in exchange for guarantees of personal security. Abashidze, when I understood. that there would be no Russian support, I boarded I. Ivanov’s plane and flew with him to Moscow.

And this marked the end of the pro-Russian sentiments of the population and politicians in Georgia. And we lost her. Like other former Soviet republics of the USSR.

See what happened? And what certain V. Putin was doing at the time?

The threat that Banderites pose to Russia's very existence cannot be overemphasized. This is the anti- to everything that defines and makes Russia great, at an existential civilization level. It is a matter of absolute utmost importance, of life and death for the Russian state -- Banderites must be hunted and eradicated, down to the last man, wherever they are in the world. And yet that cancer was allowed to creep from west to east all those years with no resistance.

Because the dear partners were more valuable and what being buddies with them meant for the Russian elite drove both domestic and foreign policy.

Later on the same V.V. Putin splashed $50B on the Winter Olympics (on the Winter Olympics, not even the Summer) and later another $20B or so on the WC, right when Ukraine was being taken over by the mortal eternal enemies of Russia. Russia invested essentially zero on building up its soft power in Ukraine, and didn't lift a finger to block the US intervention and coup there. Even though they of course knew about it and had a lot of pro-Russian people in positions of power and influence back then. It was deeply symbolic that the Maidan was happening right during the Sochi Olympics.

Then we have the refusal to send the army to Kiev and reverse the Maidan when Ukraine had no serious army of its own.

This whole thing could have been completely over in 2014 instead of having the mass slaughter ongoing today.

But again, the dear partners' feelings must not be hurt, and the most important thing is that the pipelines are taking Russia's precious non-renewable oil and gas resources to Europe for pennies on the dollar of their real value so that the burghers there can be warm and comfortable.

Then he refused to even help the LDNR to take over the whole of their territories, which is why we see the utter destruction and devasatation there now.

And then he did Minsk-1 and Minsk-2, but is now acting butthurt about being betrayed there by the dear partners. Really? You, the grand-5D-chess-master, former KGB man for decades, later director of the FSB, and then president for 15 years, were fooled so easily while everyone watching the situation was screaming that it was idiotic to allow them to rearm and complete the process of brainwashing the situation? We are to seriously believe that?

Then he goes into Ukraine with an expeditionary force when it was clear to everyone on February 25th 2022 that once the war was started, it could only really ever end with Russia annexing the whole of Ukraine and ending the latter's existence as an independent state for good. Of course it was a fiasco and more than a year later we learn about the absolutely treasonous terms of the Istanbul agreements that V.V. Putin was ready to sign. It was even worse than a Minsk-3, but V.V. Putin was about to go for it. We have to thank Boris Johnson for saving Mother Russia from her own traitors.

Throughout all this, we have the deep underlying issue of the nature of the post-Soviet Russian state and its economy. It became a resource appendage to the West in the 1990s and Putin did very little to reverse that. It is only now thanks to the sanctions that some serious action is finally being taken, but there is no real excuse here -- he had been in power for a quarter of a century, that was plenty of the time to fix the economy.

But again, that would have meant telling the dear partners to go f**k themselves and not just disciplining the oligarchs so that they kind of work in cooperation with the state, but actually ending the oligarch class. And V.V. Putin didn't have the balls to do that. Dzerzhinsky and Stalin were needed, instead we got the mild mannered boomer grandpas who didn't want to rock the boat.

So here we are, waiting for the next grand betrayal.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Dec 3 2023 23:10 utc | 57

China is making a strategic blunder by not testing their weapons against NATO weapons in Ukraine.

Although China has the world's largest stockpile of conventional weapons none of them is battle tested.

They work well in lab conditions but many lab successes ended up duds in the battlefield. Relying on untested weapons will doom China when it is dragged into a war when it least expects.

At least now China must donate weapons to Russia to test how they perform against NATO weapons. It costs China absolutely nothing. NATO can't trace them to China because most Chinese weapons are Russian copies. This is the last chance China gets. Play ostrich now and CCP will be busted like CCCP.

It will also tame Taiwan as they may suspect (with NATO speculation) that Chinese weapons are effective. That is winning a war without going to war.

Posted by: Jason | Dec 3 2023 23:14 utc | 58

Posted by: zorge | Dec 3 2023 23:06 utc | 56

Seems that is the case, they've been sold a bill of goods and bought it hook, line, and sinker.

Just curious if any Ukrainians, if they can stay objective and look at world events outside of their own little corner, have the awareness to watch the West acting as they are in Gaza, providing arms and muscle for genocide, and civilian slaughter including children on a scale we haven't seen since WWII.

Is that the betterment to which they aspire? To join with murderous, genocidal thugs like Netanyahoo?

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Dec 3 2023 23:23 utc | 59

So, we're well over a million Ukranians and Russians killed in this war.
Almost all Slavs and Orthodox Christians.
Almost all conscripted.
Retreat meant death at the hands of the Ukie Nazi's. Attack meant death at the hands of the Russians.
From the start Zelenski was assured he would not be targeted......Why?
So, one Zelenski is more valuable than a million Slavs.......Why?
I will wager that he will disappear soon (bravely killed in action?), a little plastic surgery and he'll be sunning himself alongside Jeffery Epstein on a sunny beach in South America.
Any takers?

Posted by: Little Black Duck | Dec 3 2023 23:30 utc | 60

Where is Justin Trudeau when we need him?

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Dec 3 2023 15:38 utc | 4

Trudeau the Lessor, was never needed. By anyone. Ever. But he was installed because he had the right last name for a Political Campaign, but even then he only got 32% of the vote.
Polling says 3 out of 4 Canadians think he should jump in front of a bus.

To Putin's/Russia's "mistakes" it never ceases to amaze me how those that have never had to make a decision about thousands of other's lives, simplistically blather on about "mistakes". The timing of pushback against the American Scum and European Smegma depended on being strong enough and having the necessary resources for a Long Term fight. Knowing the American is Sprinter, subject to regular premature ejaculation isn't enough. Putin/Russia developed and implemented a great plan. They are in control. Sit back and watch how it is done.

Posted by: kupkee | Dec 3 2023 23:49 utc | 61

https://t.me/fighter_bomber/14914

The photo shows the traffic of sea vessels to/from the port of Odessa on November 30, 2023.
They are asking to comment on why these ships are not sunk by our aircraft.

This is the simplest question that I can answer quickly.
Because there is no order.

And not only aviation can sink them, but also the Navy and pirates and random detached mines and even crests for the purpose of provocation.

But there is no order.


Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Dec 3 2023 23:54 utc | 62

Satepestage @51: "Defeat the russians[retarded sic] and join the Garden."

And then what? Let's just imagine the gay mouse can actually defeat the bear, then what? Spend the rest of eternity with a hostile neighbor? Everything the West imagined about the conflict; gay Ukrainian hairdressers and faggy fast food clerks turning into deadly Rambo resistance fighters will happen for real, but against the Ukraine instead of for it.

Try to understand, "defeat Russia" isn't something the Ukrautnians can do. Even with the most masturbation-worthy wunderwaffen, "defeat Russia" isn't one of the available outcome options for the Ukraine. It is just chihuahua fantasies of mauling the mastiff.

Posted by: William Gruff | Dec 4 2023 0:14 utc | 63

Fellow barflies, pardon me if my previous comment came off sounding cynical or naive. The consensus is that the direction of the war will be determined entirely by changes in attitude among leadership, in Kiev, in EU, and in the WH. Attitudes of the grunts in the trenches counts for nothing and is difficult to assess or predict. I was wondering whether anything had changed in 200 years, having just seen the movie Napoleon, which I heartily recommend, even though he comes off as a cross between a brilliant military tactician and a mumbling, love-sick schoolboy. I cannot attest to the historical accuracy of it, however.

Posted by: Esser | Dec 4 2023 0:17 utc | 64

Little Black Duck @61

True enough. When the last Ukrainian is turned into fertilizer, the NAFO trolls will just shrug it off and observe, "Well, Ukrainians are the same as Russians anyway, so it's no big deal."

Posted by: William Gruff | Dec 4 2023 0:19 utc | 65

True enough. When the last Ukrainian is turned into fertilizer, the NAFO trolls will just shrug it off and observe, "Well, Ukrainians are the same as Russians anyway, so it's no big deal."

Posted by: William Gruff | Dec 4 2023 0:19 utc | 66

That per a first hand account seem to be what most Nafo/liberals/neocon war mongerers think.

No one ever gave a poop about Ukraine, but this probably is no surprise to anyone who hasn't been living under a rock. They already shrugged Ukraine off.

Bombing Lwow to stone age might be the only thing that could make the needle move. It would need to be the end game, that place will become a new Mecca for eastern European nazis otherwise.

Posted by: unimperator | Dec 4 2023 0:23 utc | 66

Esser @65: "The consensus is that the direction of the war will be determined entirely by changes in attitude among leadership, in Kiev, in EU, and in the WH. Attitudes of the grunts in the trenches counts for nothing and is difficult to assess or predict."

Well, it's a fairly trivial exercise to determine if they are alive or dead. The dead ones have notoriously bad aim and don't concern the opposition so much. I would suggest that regardless of the attitudes of their leadership in Kiev or Washington, live Ukrainian troops becoming dead Ukrainian troops in large numbers has a significant impact on the course of the conflict.

Posted by: William Gruff | Dec 4 2023 0:31 utc | 67

Is that the betterment to which they aspire? To join with murderous, genocidal thugs like Netanyahoo?

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Dec 3 2023 23:23 utc | 60
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Ukrainian Nazis have already proven that they are genocide capable. For seven years before the SMO, they were killing civilians (women and children) in the Donbass. And, if they were able to defeat Russia and recapture the Donbass and Crimea, they would show the world what a genocide really looks like, I think they would make Israel look like pikers, just like their grandfathers did during and after WWII.

Posted by: Ed | Dec 4 2023 0:52 utc | 68

Gilbert Doctorow has a useful analysis of the Hersh thesis that military talks are under way to bring an end to the war.
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/

Among other things he points out, what seems reasonable ebough to me, that:

"...Vladimir Putin has been very cautious in conducting this war precisely because the Russians have a decidedly low opinion of the professionalism, and at times even of the sanity of their American counterparts. Putin is strong enough in his entourage of elites and in the broad Russian public to make a persuasive case for any settlement that ensures Russian security interests are served and that the sacrifices in men and fortune that this war has cost will be justified by the outcome..."

Not unlike the war on Gaza the proximate cause of the war can be the political requirements of the empty headed teenagers who are given the responsibility of running US electoral campaigns. Austin's speech- in his capacity as a Raytheon Board Member?- today is an indication of the depth of thought that lies behind US foreign policy in the post Clinton era.

Posted by: bevin | Dec 4 2023 1:00 utc | 69

True enough. When the last Ukrainian is turned into fertilizer, the NAFO trolls will just shrug it off and observe, "Well, Ukrainians are the same as Russians anyway, so it's no big deal."

Posted by: William Gruff | Dec 4 2023 0:19 utc | 66
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You mean like the fake "James" said above at #58?

Posted by: Ed | Dec 4 2023 1:01 utc | 70

Esser | Dec 4 2023 0:17 utc | 65--

Grunts create the facts on the ground that allow leaders to bargain--No grunts, no facts. Currently and for most of the entire SMO, Russian grunts have had the upper hand and are now in the process of creating new facts on the ground.

Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 4 2023 1:08 utc | 71

Ed @71: "You mean like the fake "James" said above at #58?"

Yes. It is one of the tragedies of this conflict that the Russians care more about the Ukrainians than the NAFO trolls do. The Ukraine is literally sacrificing everything to please the West; trying desperately to earn a pat on the head that will never come.

Yes, it's foolish and stupid, but more than that it is tragic. If only the Ukrainians could see how much the British and Americans actually despise them perhaps they could stop the foolishness and salvage something of the Ukraine before it is all gone.

Posted by: William Gruff | Dec 4 2023 1:22 utc | 72

Not since Hitler inexplicatly failed to follow through at Dunkirk has there been a military operation like the SMO. Why does Russia not take out every bridge accross the Denipier, flood Kiev, take out the power lines and brick the nuke plants?
One would almost have to think, both sides are hell bent on killing as many slavs as possible? The Ukrainian battle plan is meat assults until the Russian tire of killing us.

Posted by: steve | Dec 4 2023 1:25 utc | 73

Some SMO updates from Simplicious.

Russian forces use homemade transport bot to move supplies around in Avdeevka without coming under fire
https://nitter.net/simpatico771/status/1731400014776184853

Ukrainians on the front complain that Russians are psychologically torturing them by blasting patriotic music from loudspeakers
https://nitter.net/simpatico771/status/1731400167566246076

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 4 2023 1:26 utc | 74

Yesterday I scanned the MSM news. The UK openly boasted of running aerial surveillance over Gaza to identify targets for Israel, and it was revealed the USA has provided over 12,000 bombs and 57,000 shells to Israel. Israel killed over 300 more civilians, including over 100 more dead children. At the same time, Kamala Harris had been sobered up long enough to make a speech claiming that the US wished Israel to avoid casualties, in a desperate attempt to mask the blood on the hands of Genocide Joe.

I read that Germany is in budget crisis. I looked thorugh numerous articles, and not a single one mentioned the actual cause of the crisis, the war in Ukraine and in particular the destruction of Nordstream.

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2023/12/dystopia/

Posted by: Winston, journalist | Dec 4 2023 1:32 utc | 75

steve@74
There never was anything inexplicable about the Wehrmacht's actions after Dunkirk. In hindsight it might seem ill advised but at the time it was justifiable for all manner of reasons.

One of which was the confidence that Britain, like France would fall in behind the plan which led to Barbarossa. And always had been aimed at it since Streicher, Papen and Hindenburg put the fuhrer into the chancellery - to the quiet satisfaction of Britain's deepest conservative thinkers.

Posted by: bevin | Dec 4 2023 1:41 utc | 76

Rate of advance seems glacial. Russians still haven't taken Stepove, let alone Avdiivka. It's looking like a wait until spring to take the latter. And some increase in units, step up in effort (as was done by Wagner in Bakhmut a year ago).
.
And in the south, there's not even any effort being made to retake Kherson. Not even starting on it. I don't know how you capture several hundred kms of coast line and create the "land bridge to Transnitria", when you can't even menace Kherson.

Posted by: Anonymous | Dec 4 2023 2:08 utc | 77

Posted by: Anonymous | Dec 4 2023 2:08 utc | 78

Seems they are able to break Ukraine as a state without going too much past Bakhmut, Rabotyne, Avdeevka or Kupyansk. Which is now a primary political goal for the war.

What's the hurry, anyway?

Posted by: unimperator | Dec 4 2023 2:15 utc | 78

@unimperator 79

Exactly. Every month of slo-mo grinding attrition by Russia,
Europe and the US get more broke. More and more worthless fiat needs to be created just to cover the interest payments on last months borrowing.

Confetti money is the ultimate destination for the kleptocracy.

Why should Russia interrupt the party?

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Dec 4 2023 3:15 utc | 79

@Posted by: bevin | Dec 4 2023 1:41 utc | 77

The German tank crews had not slept for days during the advance from the Ardennes, even Churchill questioned how they could keep going. They were taking Pervitin, a powerful methamphetamine (i.e. meth) which reduces anxiety and empathy while allowing individuals to stay awake for days on end while still performing well. By the time they got near Dunkirk, after 10 straight days of fighting, they may have been exhausted and/or suffering side effects.

How Meth Helped the Nazis Conquer France

Blitzkrieg on Speed - Nazis on Crystal Meth

Their flanks were also exposed, and the Germans surprised by the speed of their success, the incompetence of the French/English coordination and general officers stopped a proper pincer being formed onto the German rear supply lines.

And yes Hitler assumed that Churchill would sue for peace, allowing him to attack the Soviet Union with no threat from the UK.

Posted by: Roger | Dec 4 2023 4:03 utc | 80

Just a stray thought that always comes to me. The American and Ukroid telegraphing their intentions to attack south in the much vaunted offensive. Like it was Iraq shock and awe where the Americans strutted their stuff and the much televised build up to destroy a small country that didn't stand a chance.
The Russian layered defenses were common knowledge and I thought for sure the Anglo american empire was going to attack in another direction. But no, they send their poxy proxy army against the Kursk defenses. Sevastopol was just too good a prize I guess. Bloody unbelievable that they thought this ad hock proxy army could break through those defenses. !00,000 or so zombies killed, as many or more maimed for life and many more wounded. Incredible. The mighty German leopards and american bradleys just burned out scrap metal littering the farm fields....
The decadence and debauchery of empire in its final days.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 4 2023 4:27 utc | 81

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Front #Summary for 3 Dec 2023 by 19:04⚡️

🔹In #Kherson Direction, localised counter fighting continues at all AFU left bank footholds. Due to fog and rain, the intensity is somewhat reduced. Fierce fighting continues in #Krynki. Most buildings have been destroyed, the AFU shelter in cellars. Our artillery is working on them, aviation uses aerial bombs. Reportedly, ours managed to hit an M777 howitzer 8 km away. Previously, the AFU did not place their artillery nearer than 10 km from the coast. Now they came closer to cover their troops more accurately.

🔹In #Zaporozhye Direction, north of #Verbovoye, our Airborne Forces are building on yesterday's success and continue to retake positions. The AFU try to counterattack in response, but without success. West of #Rabotino, the enemy's attacks continue unabated. Our military hold the lines and repulse all attacks.

🔹In #SouthDonetsk Direction, #Maryinka is without changes. On the outskirts our forces are fighting for the last AFU positions. The town actually no longer exists. The AFU literally buried themselves in concrete, terrorising peaceful #Donetsk from there. Now we have to rebuild it too.

🔹In #Donetsk Direction, on the #Avdeyevka flanks, our army retains the initiative. On the northern flank, the AFU's main forces withdrew from #Stepovoye. Most of the village is now under our control, clearing is underway. Near Coke Plant, ours are also making progress, but so far without visually tangible results. They act carefully and conserve their strength. The artillery is working powerfully. On the southern flank, the our troops are methodically expanding the zone of control from the industrial zone. There are battles for every meter. The AFU are not attempting to regain their positions. They are bringing reserves into #Avdeevka and will hold the city at any cost.

🔹In #Bakhmut Direction, our forces are on the offensive. There are very active fights in #Kleshcheyevka. From the ground they report that they managed to gain a foothold from the southeast along the railway near the lakes. Important positions have been occupied and are being cleared.

🔹In #Svatovo Direction, according to the latest reports, our army is gaining a foothold in the northeastern part of #Sinkovka near #Kupyansk. Ours confidently control about a third of the village. Our military also continues its confident advance after a breakthrough in the direction of #Terny and #Yampolovka. Our pushed the AFU back from six positions and an observation post. In the #Serebryanskoye forestry, an AFU attack was repulsed, there are prisoners.


https://t.me/sitreports/18926

Posted by: Down South | Dec 4 2023 4:30 utc | 82

Not_Humble_Opinion

Why there are no “Wunderwaffe”, “game changers” and alike things. Except one. And you don’t want to see it in action.

One question I got yesterday made me think of writing a longread on the only “Wunderwaffe” that exists – strategic nuclear weapons. But to start with I need an intro. And here comes the intro.

Weapons vary in efficiency depending on the types of combat and goals of strike. Some weapon systems may be very efficient in, say, elimination of the living force of the enemy, like heavy TOS-1A flamethrowers. Here is what advertisement says: “The TOS-1A Heavy Flamethrower System is designed to suppress a whole variety of covered and open targets with thermobaric rockets. The shortest firing range of 600m, well-protected and highly reliable T-90S MBT Platform, and short deployment (combat readiness) time of 90 seconds allow TOS-1A to be an extremely lethal weapon with great combat capabilities.”

Use of thermobaric rockets will not get concrete crushed, but will eliminate the enemy inside, provided enemy is within firing range. So, despite it’s a classy piece of military equipment, It’s not a gamechanger.

There was a number of good posts on artillery yesterday, but I wanted to add one thing. No matter how good Koalitsiya-SV is there are number of limitations even within field of its’ use.

We have all (at least I hope so) learned physics at school. And we all know, what the "standart conditions" are - atmospheric pressure of 10^5 Pa and temperature + 20 by C. At least it was like that a good while ago. Standart conditions, though, may vary from country to country. But that's insignificant for now.

Real combat happens in nearly any conditions, and, most likely these will be far more different than standart. There are multiple factors which affect projectile, including humidity, wind direction and speed, temperature of the envoronment. Moreover, people who go biking or running outside may have noticed, that weather conditions can de different within 5-10 kilometers range and that affects the projectile and it's ability to hit target.

In general, artillery is not only a hard work, it's an art and science. Much more complex than some people may think.

As Colonel Trukhan says - a specimen becomes native in the armed forces only after a any soldier can fix it with a help of crowbar and a portion of profane words.

I guess, now you understood who is a game changer. People. The people are thouse who make things different. No matter, how complex and advanced the systems are, there are people operating them, analyzing the data, making decisions. There are people who storm positions of the enemy and do the rest of hard men's work in the frontline and rear.

A good professional will make old specimen perform much better than untrained or undertrained person operating the newest complex. And the morale. When soldier knows what he is fighting for and is commited to his duty - he is a superpower.

As to Sarmat and his Poseidon cousin - let's hope they will remain as a mean of deterrence, not of retotaliation.


https://t.me/Slavyangrad/77157

Posted by: Down South | Dec 4 2023 4:34 utc | 83

Germany will face deindustrialization if the country's companies continue to move their production abroad, warned Gunnar Gröbler, CEO of Salzgitter, Germany's second largest steelmaker, in an interview with the Financial Times.

According to data from the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry, cited by the FT, nearly a third of the companies surveyed favor investing abroad amid, as the newspaper put it, "concerns about a future without Russian gas." "If we follow this trend, deindustrialization awaits our country," Gröbler said.

He emphasized that if producers of materials for industry, particularly steel and chemicals, leave Germany because of high energy prices, there is a risk of "losing the entire value chain."

The Financial Times reported earlier that economists fear a "structural depletion" of Germany's industrial sector as companies shift production and investment abroad.

Note: The most dangerous enemy on the continent for Russia has voluntarily stripped itself of industry. This is great for Russia and its economic macro-region.


https://t.me/Slavyangrad/77197

Posted by: Down South | Dec 4 2023 4:37 utc | 84

"..Note: The most dangerous enemy on the continent for Russia has voluntarily stripped itself of industry. This is great for Russia and its economic macro-region..." Down South@85

The peculiar thing is that the Christian Democrats/Social Union are so confident of victory next year in the elections (as they have every right to be) that they don't appear to feel the need to call for a return to cheap imported energy without which no change is likely.

Posted by: bevin | Dec 4 2023 5:05 utc | 85

bevin | Dec 4 2023 5:05 utc |
Just in general, the people throughout the west have departed so far from reality that they no longer know where reality is.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 4 2023 6:29 utc | 86

Re: Posted by: unimperator | Dec 4 2023 2:15 utc | 78

Seems they are able to break Ukraine as a state without going too much past Bakhmut, Rabotyne, Avdeevka or Kupyansk. Which is now a primary political goal for the war.

What's the hurry, anyway?


These are evidence free assertions 5
There is no actual evidence Ukraine is “breaking” as a state - just assertions and opinions.

Posted by: Julian | Dec 4 2023 6:48 utc | 87

Julian | Dec 4 2023 6:48 utc | 87

There are easily seen trends. US has now discarded the clowns like a used condom. The fallout begins.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 4 2023 6:59 utc | 88

EU countries and Usa are simply to far to be defeated by Russia with conventional weapons. But by destroying electrical infrastructure Russia could trigger a wave of refugees fro Ukrsine to EU. This would be much less inhumane then actions of Israel.
Unfortunatelly in Kremlin there are still people who love "dear partners" more then they love Russia.

Posted by: zorge | Dec 4 2023 7:26 utc | 89

As the FEBA is attritted of its defenders and those remaining need to defend ever more ground, it becomes much easier for Russians to advance, which is what we're seeing. And in the cold wet snowy trench lines, it becomes harder for Ukie troops to get motivated as the days move on and the Russian pressure continues unabated. The difference is huge between the conditions of the two sides: The Russians are well rotated, fed hot food and drink, get to sleep and are properly clothed while the Ukies don't get rotated, eat cold food and drink, get very little sleep and are often improperly clothed. Getting rotated is huge for morale as you get a respite, hot showers, new uniforms and boots, hot food and drink, and an opportunity to communicate with family. And when it's time to return to the line, you're ready and motivated.

Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 3 2023 20:27 utc | 44

Are you sure all is well universally with 'Russian' ( i.e. the Allied ) troops ? From time to time I run into reports on Telegram here and there that cause me some disquiet. Particularly, right now, down Kherson way, where reports of being overwhelmed by Kiev force drones persist. Where actually they (allies) report being at a numerical disadvantage. Not sure what to make of that. When Kiev is merely landing platoons at a time... but that's what they said somewhere.

Posted by: abrogard | Dec 4 2023 9:37 utc | 90

Note: The most dangerous enemy on the continent for Russia has voluntarily stripped itself of industry. This is great for Russia and its economic macro-region.
I wonder if Mr. Slessarenko has taken into account if at all the fact that Germany is merely a pawn of the USA and has US military bases on its soil, so it's not like it can do anything without the USA's permission. Germany can thus be a friend or an enemy depending on who controls it. A wild card of sorts. If anything, if I were to go that far, the real "dangerous enemies on the continent" would be the Anglo nations considering what the US, and England before it, did to pit Germany and Russia against one another in the first place.

Posted by: joey_n | Dec 4 2023 9:49 utc | 91

So here we are, waiting for the next grand betrayal.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Dec 3 2023 23:10 utc | 57

I like all of that. I am a newcomer to all this international politics stuff. Good place to be. Come without preconceptions, that's how totally 'new' I am.

If you expand on all that somewhere I'd like to see it.

Posted by: arthur brogard | Dec 4 2023 9:59 utc | 92

Posted by: Julian | Dec 4 2023 6:48 utc | 87

there is evidence of more widespread opposition to Zelenksy that there ever was to Putin.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Dec 4 2023 10:06 utc | 93

The Ukrainian Nazis have already proven that they are genocide capable. For seven years before the SMO, they were killing civilians (women and children) in the Donbass. And, if they were able to defeat Russia and recapture the Donbass and Crimea, they would show the world what a genocide really looks like, I think they would make Israel look like pikers, just like their grandfathers did during and after WWII.

Posted by: Ed | Dec 4 2023 0:52 utc | 68

This Donbas Donetsk shelling is a basic and the biggest part of my mantra regarding the evil of Kiev and USA and the relative 'goodness' of Moscow/DPR/LPR etc.

But in truth surely the eight year shelling of Donetsk civilians - despite the admitted thousands of deaths over that time- was really a fairly half hearted practice?

Kinds suspiciously so, to my mind.

Posted by: arthur brogard | Dec 4 2023 10:07 utc | 94

I read that Germany is in budget crisis. I looked thorugh numerous articles, and not a single one mentioned the actual cause of the crisis, the war in Ukraine and in particular the destruction of Nordstream.

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2023/12/dystopia/

Posted by: Winston, journalist | Dec 4 2023 1:32 utc | 75

and it's not even the war in Ukraine is the reason. It is quite specifically the sanctions America made every impose and the destruction of the pipeline which the Americans did.

i.e. It is the result of America's attack on Germany. Anyone, anyone at all, of all you highly qualified, learned analysts, tell me it's not so?

In pursuit of their boldly stated overall aim: Keep Germany down, Russia out and USA in.

And the very war in Ukraine precisely the same. Right?

And all the suffering nations such as UK and effects felt as far away as Australia.. all suffering from America's direct attack upon them. Right?

Because America sees these attacks on everyone else as being beneficial to its monied interests. Which is all that the USA is: a collection of monied interests.

Right?

So why isn't it seen and said loud and clear, continually and universally: America is making war on the whole planet. ? ? ? ?

We have one enemy. All of us. All around the globe. Outside of America and inside of America. The 'owners', manipulators, controllers of America.

All the words, all the texts, all the videos, all the topics, all your international politics and world economics etc. etc... all just smokescreens, diversions, distractions, avoidance mechanisms to avoid looking at one simple fact: The USA is making war on YOU.

Right now.

All of us.

Posted by: arthur brogard | Dec 4 2023 10:22 utc | 95

Zaluzhny's plan for 2024:

-US give Ukraine $350 - 400 billion aid
-US give Ukraine 17 million shells to "de-occupy" Ukraine

https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1731621955915186339

Apparently, meanwhile US has stopped giving ATAACMS rockets because they can't be produced. US gave Ukraine a grand total of 20 Himars rockets in October and 0 in November.

https://twitter.com/simpatico771/status/1731106571868840303

Posted by: unimperator | Dec 4 2023 10:45 utc | 96

Meant 20 ATACMS (not Himars rockets).

Posted by: unimperator | Dec 4 2023 10:49 utc | 97

arthur brogard | Dec 4 2023 10:22 utc |95

I read that Germany is in budget crisis. I looked thorugh numerous articles, and not a single one mentioned the actual cause of the crisis, the war in Ukraine and in particular the destruction of Nordstream.

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2023/12/dystopia/

Posted by: Winston, journalist | Dec 4 2023 1:32 utc | 75

The current German political classes seem hell bent on destroying the industrial base of Germany which is predicated on cheap energy which is no longer available to the them courtesy of the Nord Stream gas pipeline destruction. The fact that not even a whimper is offered in protest against this egregious attack on German independence tells you all you need to know about the current clowns running the show.
It is my view that the only useful purpose of the German armed forces would be to surround Rammstein air base and send the Americans packing.
Germany is now a country without any self-respect.

Posted by: ZimZum | Dec 4 2023 10:55 utc | 98

US state department pulled funding from the Nafo department.

https://twitter.com/e_l_g_c_a/status/1731550971455480319

Posted by: unimperator | Dec 4 2023 11:05 utc | 99

james @98 <-- Real james isn't this stupid.

Posted by: William Gruff | Dec 4 2023 11:23 utc | 100

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