Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
December 05, 2023

The War In Ukraine Is Done

The Washington Post has produced a long, two part piece, about the failed 'counter-offensive' in Ukraine. It dispenses equal blame on the U.S. and British planning of the whole mess and the Ukrainian execution of it.

The bullet points from the first part:

Miscalculations, divisions marked offensive planning by U.S., Ukraine (archived)

Key elements that shaped the counteroffensive and the initial outcome include:
  • Ukrainian, U.S. and British military officers held eight major tabletop war games to build a campaign plan. But Washington miscalculated the extent to which Ukraine’s forces could be transformed into a Western-style fighting force in a short period — especially without giving Kyiv air power integral to modern militaries.
  • U.S. and Ukrainian officials sharply disagreed at times over strategy, tactics and timing. The Pentagon wanted the assault to begin in mid-April to prevent Russia from continuing to strengthen its lines. The Ukrainians hesitated, insisting they weren’t ready without additional weapons and training.
  • U.S. military officials were confident that a mechanized frontal attack on Russian lines was feasible with the troops and weapons that Ukraine had. The simulations concluded that Kyiv’s forces, in the best case, could reach the Sea of Azov and cut off Russian troops in the south in 60 to 90 days.
  • The United States advocated a focused assault along that southern axis, but Ukraine’s leadership believed its forces had to attack at three distinct points along the 600-mile front, southward toward both Melitopol and Berdyansk on the Sea of Azov and east toward the embattled city of Bakhmut.
  • The U.S. intelligence community had a more downbeat view than the U.S. military, assessing that the offensive had only a 50-50 chance of success given the stout, multilayered defenses Russia had built up over the winter and spring.
  • Many in Ukraine and the West underestimated Russia’s ability to rebound from battlefield disasters and exploit its perennial strengths: manpower, mines and a willingness to sacrifice lives on a scale that few other countries can countenance.
  • As the expected launch of the offensive approached, Ukrainian military officials feared they would suffer catastrophic losses — while American officials believed the toll would ultimately be higher without a decisive assault.

And from the second part:

In Ukraine, a war of incremental gains as counteroffensive stalls (archived)

Key findings from reporting on the campaign include:
  • Seventy percent of troops in one of the brigades leading the counteroffensive, and equipped with the newest Western weapons, entered battle with no combat experience.
  • Ukraine’s setbacks on the battlefield led to rifts with the United States over how best to cut through deep Russian defenses.
  • The commander of U.S. forces in Europe couldn’t get in touch with Ukraine’s top commander for weeks in the early part of the campaign amid tension over the American’s second-guessing of battlefield decisions.
  • Each side blamed the other for mistakes or miscalculations. U.S. military officials concluded that Ukraine had fallen short in basic military tactics, including the use of ground reconnaissance to understand the density of minefields. Ukrainian officials said the Americans didn’t seem to comprehend how attack drones and other technology had transformed the battlefield.
  • In all, Ukraine has retaken only about 200 square miles of territory, at a cost of thousands of dead and wounded and billions in Western military aid in 2023 alone.

All those points played a role.

My personal ones:

  • Both, the Ukraine and its supporters, systematically underestimated Russian capabilities. (And still do.)
  • Satellite reconnaissance showed Russian defense preparations on the level of the Battle of Kursk. There the German Wehrmacht, after way too long preparations, failed to break the Russian lines. The unlearned lesson from 1943: When you see defense lines like these, try something else.
  • Battle simulations and table top war games have a 'moral factor' input for each side. Setting your sides' factor to 10 and the enemy's factor to 0, as the U.S. and UK obviously did, will let you win every time - but has no relation to reality.
  • Air support would not have helped. Russian air defenses are too strong to counter it.
  • The decision to use barely trained, 'green' brigades without any fighting experience was a serious error.
  • Not to use smoke grenades and, in general, means of deception, was not reasonable at all.
  • To have half of the new troops, the more experienced part, fight Zelenski's already lost battle for Bakhmut, was a major political mistake.

All together made sure that the so called 'counter-offensive' never had a chance to take off. The bickering now is just an attempt to put the blame for the failure onto the other side of the table.

The Ukrainian General Zaluzny has learned from the battle. He now puts up somewhat realistic numbers to let the U.S. understand how small its chances to win really are:

Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi asked Pentagon chief for 17 million rounds of ammunition

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was informed during a visit to Kyiv that Ukraine needed 17 million rounds of ammunition and that US$ 350-400 billion worth of assets and personnel would be required to liberate the country.
...
Quote from a senior Defence Forces official: "Austin was told 17 million rounds of ammunition were needed. He was stunned, to put it mildly, because you wouldn’t be able to collect that many rounds in the whole world."

The Ukrainian army does not have the ten thousands of barrels required to fire 17 million rounds. Nor has it the men to feed those imaginary guns.

Zaluzny obviously thinks that the war is lost and done with. And that it is time for politics that pursue peace:

In addition, according to a source, Austin also said Zaluzhnyi had complained privately to American generals about interference from the President’s Office [..]: "Austin told us privately that Zaluzhnyi was always complaining to his generals about the President’s Office and how it obstructed him. Well, obviously the president learned about those conversations too. And that isn’t conducive to trust."

However, the President’s Office is inclined to believe that Zaluzhnyi’s dismissal would facilitate his political career.

It is high time for the Biden administration to wrap this whole thing up. Do the usual thing: declare victory, leave and forget-about-it.

Gilbert Doctorow muse about ways to do that:

Seymour Hersh, Anatol Lieven and the desperate DC gambit to end hostilities in Ukraine while claiming ‘victory’

Whatever happens thereafter will be left for the footnotes.

Posted by b on December 5, 2023 at 7:09 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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It figures... "their fault!"

Posted by: Newbie | Dec 5 2023 7:15 utc | 1

Just 76 days ago Zelenski was meeting Wall Street's biggest shots to divide up the spoils.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met Wednesday evening in Manhattan with Wall Street CEOs and business power players to discuss efforts to rebuild his war-torn country and its economy, a person familiar with the matter tells CNN.

The roundtable, convened by JPMorgan Chase, included former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, billionaire Mike Bloomberg, New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft, hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman, former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and billionaire Barry Sternlicht, the source said.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/20/business/zelensky-wall-street-ukraine-discussion/index.html

The bagholder search begins.

Posted by: too scents | Dec 5 2023 7:24 utc | 2

I wonder what the Russians have in mind.


Posted by: Keith | Dec 5 2023 7:27 utc | 3

What kind of moron would let an imbecile like Joe Biden lead them into war? And seeing the results, allow generations of your un- or at the very least under-trained citizens to be slaughtered by an obviously superior fighting force?

Posted by: jefe_sd | Dec 5 2023 7:30 utc | 4

Imo Both sides started with mostly inexperienced troops. However, Russia had institutional memory of soviet tactics. Russia did a far better job of quickly bringing in new recruits, training them and rotating them into battle. Plus while they didn’t start with much drone tech, they incorporated them into the battlefield in record time. I once worked on a program for the army, to design and build a contraption that would clean contaminated equipment of deadly toxins on the battlefield. What a boondoggle. We’ve got far too many generals to get anything done.

Posted by: John k | Dec 5 2023 7:33 utc | 5

Regretfully the river of bodies and blood will keep flowing.
Simply put the west is perceived as <<недоговорноспособный эгоист>> and as such only a full scale victory will be an acceptable outcome.
One can see this is only a deception to regroup and rearm, there is no sincere wish to sit down and talk.
If I can see this, so can much smarter and better informed people.
Until Ukraine capitulates there will be no seizure of hostilities.
On the Russian side there is no need for an offensive, to grab land or anything for that matter.
They have Europe in a headlock and are just waiting for the tap.
And it seems they can wait.
For how long?
The war of attrition will continue maybe even 2 years from now.
Someone needs to pay for all the dead and damage...I wonder what will the EU say when Russia gives them the bill.

Posted by: ForWhomTheBellTolls | Dec 5 2023 7:39 utc | 6

This offensive was publicly discussed and trumpeted months in advance. Weird.

Drole de guerre.

Failure is an orphan.

When the true extent of the casualties becomes known (400,000 dead?) the reaction will be one of revulsion, similar to that after WW1.

Posted by: anon | Dec 5 2023 7:41 utc | 7

In this piece and many, many, MANY others, you'll see that the entirety of Ukraine/USA's strategy is always "Don't worry, the Russians will run away."

Literally.

Posted by: Sam (in Tiraspol) | Dec 5 2023 7:56 utc | 8

This offensive was publicly discussed and trumpeted months in advance.

Posted by: anon | Dec 5 2023 7:41 utc | 7

Like Nivelle's Offensive in 1917 and look what came to pass then. I do wonder about these so called military experts, officiers and intelligence agancies. Do they know nothing? Have they learned nothing?

As an amateur military historian and keen wargamer for far too many years, it would have been obvious that - as B notes - unless the Russians actually ran away (as postulated in several western press articles prior to the attack) then the attack would be a debacle for the Ukrainian army. You would not need multiple games to model this. The only way for any sort of model predicting a UAF victory would be to fix the rules so that this result produced. As for the 60 to 90 days, that in itself is an admission of failure. It sort of assumes no or limited Russian reaction for months, along with no reserves.

Western narrative about this war has been characterised by wishful thinking and poor intelligence, combined with a prejudiced almost ubermensch attititude to the Ukraine over a stereotyped Russia. Even in 1940 when the Wehrmacht wargamed Barbarossa, they seemed to have a healthier respect for their opponent.

I am not surprised by the contents of this article. However it confirms my worst fears of the effectiveness of western intelligence agencies and militaries - and these are the people who brief our poltical decision makers.

Posted by: marcjf | Dec 5 2023 7:57 utc | 9

This offensive was publicly discussed and trumpeted months in advance. Weird.

Posted by: anon | Dec 5 2023 7:41 utc | 7

Good luck carrying out a large scale offensive with modern ISR without preparations being detector. Might as well milk it for the propaganda value.
That said there is too much gloating, Ukraine still has plenty of fight in it even if they are on a downward curve.

Posted by: Satepestage | Dec 5 2023 8:07 utc | 10

Regarding the Russians running away, it is well possible that the west fell into a russian trap.

If i remember some comments from Scott Ritter at the start of the offensive correctly, the russians had placed two brigades near the Robotino area, which were previously in the Kharkov area and there were forced to fall back. This might have lead to the assumption, that they would fall back again.

Posted by: HEL | Dec 5 2023 8:07 utc | 11

@Keith wonders what the Russians will do.

The Russians will keep doing what they have been doing, destroying the AFU. Until now, the Russians have relied on the AFU conducting offensive operations, essentially charging into the Russian meat grinder.

Now that the AFU seems to be transitioning to a defensive posture, Russia can’t rely on the AFU killing its soldiers in that way, so Russia will have to go on the offensive, I.e. searching for AFU concentrations and destroying them.

This will be more costly in terms of Russian lives than the prior method, but I imagine the AFU is sufficiently hollowed out that it won’t be too bad. Hopefully the Ukro-nazis will get the point quickly and surrender unconditionally.

Posted by: Wade Hampton | Dec 5 2023 8:10 utc | 12

Posted by: ForWhomTheBellTolls | Dec 5 2023 7:39 utc | 6

Ukraine is a game of hot potatoes. Once Russia takes something for good, they "own it" for good. Notice the mention "for good" meaning, once they take it and set up there, not meaning using the land for temporary defense or containment positions against AFU.

As it stands now, no one, including the west will pay for middle Ukraine, at the moment no one "owns" central Ukraine. It under current trajectory, even status quo is enough, is destined to become a failed, and most likely depopulated area. If political change is not possible, then it would be preferable that central part of Ukraine will become a failed state, as it will then be effectively mostly depopulated and act as a good buffer against Nato.

The most likely outcome is large part of current Ukraine deserted, and Russia will build only in the minimum necessary levels what is required and where. Most of Ukraine as it was, will never be rebuilt as it was pre-2014.

The real issue for Ukraine is BlackRock doesn't want to own more useless people in Ukraine either. They just want to own and control potential productive land in Ukraine. All Ukrainian elites and politicians seem to be fully on board to do whatever BlackRock wants.

The best outcome would probably be to get non-western partners to rebuild stuff in Ukraine to facilitate restoration of the parts not controlled by the west. Theoretically, Russia has resources to keep energy and food in Ukraine, the west, not so much.

That said, the jury is still out how all this will end, we'll have to wait and see. If it runs for several more years then the failed state scenario for large parts will be nearly certain.

Posted by: unimperator | Dec 5 2023 8:12 utc | 13

Re: battlefield disasters and catastrophic losses

WaPo writes:

Many in Ukraine and the West underestimated Russia’s ability to rebound from battlefield disasters and exploit its perennial strengths: manpower, mines and a willingness to sacrifice lives on a scale that few other countries can countenance.

Western planners and the media repeating their lies may be overestimating Russian losses by a factor of ten and underestimating underestimating Ukrainian losses by a factor of ten. This means that their kill ratio may be off by a factor of 100.

I still believe Ukraine lost some 40,000 men killed in 2014-15. Whole brigades disappeared into cauldrons, never to be seen on the battlefield again. Russia made a mistake in hiding the true numbers and never publishing an accurate estimate of the Ukrainian losses.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Dec 5 2023 8:17 utc | 14

Alexander Mercouris, or was it Judge Napolitano, said in his podcast several hours ago that the WaPost article looks like an effort by the CIA to blame the Pentagon for the failure. Just know that mainstream Ukraine 'news' from now on has a blame game theme.

Posted by: fairleft | Dec 5 2023 8:22 utc | 15

Simple fact is ....west believed it's own deluded propoganda:

That the Russians could/would not fight.

Western equipment was superior to Russian "junk".

NATO tactics (despite only ever practiced on men in sandals and nowhere near "peer" tin pot presidents) were supreme to Russian "soviet doctrine".

That western (hollowed out) industrial production could outperform Russian "gas station" industrial production.

That sanctions would bring "regime change" when the Russian population could no longer buy a macdonald's or Mars Bar.

And finally...west's moral superiority would overcome Russian LGBT(blah blah) rights desert.

And we elect these idiots!

Posted by: Max | Dec 5 2023 8:43 utc | 16

The war party will try and keep The Ukrainian Civil War simmering until at least 2025 - using Mercs and sheep dipped NATO - because by 2025 those sanctions will surely have kicked in and Putin will be toppled (sic)

Posted by: Exile | Dec 5 2023 8:44 utc | 17

In the UK imperialist propaganda rag the Daily Express had a masthead with a Ukrainian flag and the bullshit tagline “We stand with Ukraine”.

Well they don’t any more. That last appeared October 6th and has since been dropped.

Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Dec 5 2023 8:44 utc | 18

Re: Posted by: too scents | Dec 5 2023 7:24 utc | 2

The roundtable, convened by JPMorgan Chase, included former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, billionaire Mike Bloomberg, New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft, hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman, former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and billionaire Barry Sternlicht, the source said.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/20/business/zelensky-wall-street-ukraine-discussion/index.html

The bagholder search begins.

Well, one thing’s for certain - that Roundtable will NEVER EVER convene again. Not in this world anyway. Lol.

Posted by: Julian | Dec 5 2023 8:46 utc | 19

The U.S. intelligence community had a more downbeat view than the U.S. military, assessing that the offensive had only a 50-50 chance of success given the stout, multilayered defenses Russia had built up over the winter and spring.

Blame game at full force.

Posted by: SG | Dec 5 2023 8:47 utc | 20

I am a classic armchair general. I play wargames. Started off with Avalon Hill games in the 60s. I have absolutely no intention of getting involved in a real war: far too unpleasant.

I was 90% certain the Ukie Offensive would fail and I was of that opinion before it started: the extensive Kursk-like defences, imbalance in artillery and logistic support, mish-mash of Western equipment, no air cover.

When I saw the picture of the Leo2 and Bradley graveyard on Day 2, I would have called it off as it had obviously failed already.

Martyanvov is right: these Western military leaders and analysts are fools and butchers.

Posted by: JulianJ | Dec 5 2023 8:57 utc | 21

First Washington pissed off every Muslim in the world. Now every Slav should hate them as much. The blowback is going to be rough.

Posted by: Bugs | Dec 5 2023 8:59 utc | 22

The trouble began when Yanukovych wanted to lease large areas of farmland to China. - The Chinese are certainly still interested today, and they are bringing the little bit of infrastructure they need with them. This is what they look like: the successes of US foreign economic policy.

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Dec 5 2023 9:10 utc | 23

The war can be wrapped up as the USUK has achieved its goal. The elimination of a major competitor- the EU. The gas pipelines delivering cheap Russian gas to Germany have been destroyed. The process of German de-industrialisation has already begun. The rest will follow.

Iron Curtain 2.0 is in place.

Posted by: Down South | Dec 5 2023 9:20 utc | 24

I have now read the Doctorow article.

Nowhere does it suggest that the Russians would expect the demilitarisation of NATO back to its pre-Eastern expansion lines and the removal of dangerous nuclear missile launchers like the Aegis Ashore from Poland and other countries.

I think that's a red line for Russia and I don't think they would accept anything less.

I also think they would want referenda for places like Odessa and Nikolaev to potentially join the Russian Federation in some way.

Posted by: JulianJ | Dec 5 2023 9:43 utc | 25

Bernard, two points you might consider regarding your post.

1) In your personal bullet point you missed a very important factor why Ukraine forces failed to achieve the objectives of the Great Olde Counteroffensive: corruption. This factor has to be taken into account in every analysis of anything related to Ukraine. Corruption is corrosive, it destroys strength. No one can even imagine the degree of corruption in Ukraine. As Jean-Claude Juncker said: "Anyone who has had anything to do with Ukraine knows that this is a country that is corrupt at all levels of society" (Augsburger Allgemeine, Oct. 5th., 2023).

The Ukrainians split their force into three weakened fists, one directed to Melitopol, another to Berdiansk and a third one to Bakhmut, contradicting NATO plan to have one strong fist going into Melitopol.

Why?

Because the very substantial money and materiel accumulated for the Great Olde Counteroffensive have to reach the hands of three groups of corrupt Ukrainian military.

Giving all the money and materials to the group of corrupt military leading the fist aimed at Melitopol was not 'fair'. Other groups wanted a piece of the treasure.

So Ukranian corruption detroyed the Western plan to reach the Sea of Azov, weakening the fist directed to Melitopol, in order to balance the delivery of corruption opportunities inside the Ukrainian military establishment.

The stupid West sees this war as an opportunity to weaken Russia while their proxy sees this war as an opportunity to grab Western treasure.

2) Computer simulations, including war games, do not fail because of the moral hazard of arbitrary factors favouring your position. These computer simulations fail (a) because of replacing the values of unknown parameters with bands of guesstimated values that can be way off reality, and (b) because of unknown processes not included in the algorithms.

For instance, consider one component, the rate of delivery of artillery shells to Russian formations. This unknown factor can be assumed to be a single number and then simulations may fail (error of type (a) above) because the upper bound of the range for this parameter was too conservative. But something worst may happen. The rate of delivery of artillery shells to Russian formations may not be a single number, but instead, in reality it is a process (error of type (b) above), that is itself composed of several parameters and subprocesses.

I think the NATOs did not have the intelligence and time to develop realistic simulations of the battlefield. So I suspect that even if there was no corruption in the Ukrainian side NATO's plan would have failed though with much higher number of casualties on the Russian side.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Dec 5 2023 9:53 utc | 26

I just repeat what I've been saying: Russia is winning but can it end the war. Not everyone wants to end the war.
Some people want to end the war, some just want a breather, some don't mind the losing part as long as there is a cost to Russia, a cost to Germany, a win for the MIC, or the US.
Ukraine may just switch to defensive mode and drag things out. Or things could be calmed down while there is a shift to cold war with massive investment in the military in Europe. Switching Russia from 'weak losers' to 'powerful threat'

Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Dec 5 2023 9:54 utc | 27

The war of attrition will continue maybe even 2 years from now.
Someone needs to pay for all the dead and damage...I wonder what will the EU say when Russia gives them the bill.
Posted by: ForWhomTheBellTolls | Dec 5 2023 7:39 utc |

I consulted GPT because it seemed such a long word and it told me:

A more informal and commonly used term for incompetence in Russian is "неудачник" (neudachnik), which translates to "loser" or "unsuccessful person."

Would that better catch the flavour of how Russians see the West?

Posted by: arthur brogard | Dec 5 2023 10:09 utc | 28

Game, Set and Match!

https://youtu.be/GyQbcpdAP-k?feature=shared

Posted by: blueswede | Dec 5 2023 10:18 utc | 29

This will be more costly in terms of Russian lives than the prior method, but I imagine the AFU is sufficiently hollowed out that it won’t be too bad. Hopefully the Ukro-nazis will get the point quickly and surrender unconditionally.

Posted by: Wade Hampton | Dec 5 2023 8:10 utc | 12

But that assumes standard methods of warfare.
Today you simply do not venture out into the open unless totally protected by the 'invisible' - anti air screens of all kinds essentially.
That's the paramount thing isn't it?

AND you do not need to send infantry to clear trenches, machine gun posts, HQ sites, artillery emplacements... whatever.
You only need to know where things are and have the munition and delivery system.

So it is a conflict about that.

If the allies go on the attack because Kiev digs in the appropriate attack today is not tanks vulnerable to fire nor infantry the same.

It is thorough spying showing every enemy location and then ability to deliver the 'remedy' to that spot.

Offense no longer has to be costlier at the famous 3:1 ration at all. Why on earth would it? Notionally in today's war the defence is at a disadvantage. You necessarily know where they are and they can't leave. You can locate their every individual soldier and you can target that soldier !

They have a bunker you can bust it. They have a company in a trench line you can toast them.

Any place they are in a clump: good. We'll blow the clump. From a distance. With total precision. Haven't you see it? They fly the drones right in the doorway.

AND: the drone thing is in its infancy.

Posted by: arthur brogard | Dec 5 2023 10:25 utc | 30

I think the war is about to move into the guerrilla warfare phase, so I wouldn't celebrate too soon.

Yes, it's not going to end well for NATOstan and their banderite muppets but they've never yet seen a stupid idea they didn't like.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 5 2023 10:33 utc | 31

Hitler already said: "Russia is a giant with feet of clay" - in other words: if there is a bang, the Russians will run away. But they don't, and they've never done The really big problem is that the West is incapable of accepting the military superpower Russia - and that can have terrible consequences.

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Dec 5 2023 10:41 utc | 32

The West could never defeat Russia in conventional land warfare for hundreds of years already. This whole Ukraine episode was just some distraction / entertainment / circuses for the masses in the West, it never even harmed Russia much, in fact it has made Russia much stronger and there is absolutely no reason for Russia to take the break off the weaponry development and deployment accelerator. If there is no WW3 Russia is just going to streak light years ahead of the West.

Posted by: gT | Dec 5 2023 10:50 utc | 33

Doctorow asserts:

"I will go one step further and say that it is entirely possible that the Russian side suggested that it could accept Ukraine’s entry into
NATO if there was a public commitment never to post NATO forces on Ukrainian territory and not to deliver offensive weapons to Ukraine. Such things can be monitored and if there are violations they can lead directly to revocation of the agreement before any harm is done to Russian security interests.

The possible advantage to the Russian side would be to offer the Americans a face-saving exit ramp, thereby ending any possibility of dangerous escalation of American – NATO involvement on the ground should the Ukrainian forces collapse."

If this is his assertion then he must think Putin a fool.
Why spend a cool trillion pushing back a duplicitous West only to allow the enemy bent on your destruction another shot at you so "they can save face"

Why allow Blackrock; the invasive voracious epitomy of Zion/WEF,and the unipolar jew world order, to squat is's ass on your doorstep?

Posted by: ld | Dec 5 2023 11:36 utc | 34

I respect Gilbert Doctorow a lot, but I disagree with his assessment of a peace negotiation. He states that Russia might accept Ukraine being part of NATO with the stipulation that no military hardware or troops be stationed there. There is no way Russia will agree to that, IMO. One of the stated goals of the SMO is to demilitarize Ukraine. So instead, you let it become a non-military part of a military alliance with your enemy. Sorry, I will believe that when I see it. Russia has lost too much blood and treasure to settle for anything less than total capitulation.

Posted by: Chicago Bob | Dec 5 2023 11:39 utc | 35

Posted by: unimperator | Dec 5 2023 8:12 utc | 13

I think Russia and China view Ukraine's fate as part of the PR for their (existential) multipolar world project. So, after 2025, they will make sure there's a gradual recovery, an end to corruption, and eventual prosperity. A smaller Ukraine, of course, without NovoRossiya and Galicia.

Posted by: fairleft | Dec 5 2023 11:43 utc | 36

From the very start it was clear that those handlers of earpiece and guide cards needing Biden and british Spitting-Image-Clown (https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spitting_Image) Boris Johnson fell into that trap made of delusions aka believing your own propaganda and of course directed by whatever military industrual complex, which all have been led to that 'outlandish' groupthink of being able to 'isolate & destroy' somehow Putin and 'DE-Yugoslavia' Russia politically & geographically.

It won't happening, neither now nor in the future for many reasons. Just study Russia's history.

The so called 'Western' image of Russia is fundamentally flawed and has almost nothing to do with existing reallities. The same goes on with China.

All the DEADS did die pointlessly in Ukraine, even more damming the SMO/WAR have been exposing THE WEST and especially THE USA as rather limited & on its way to do 'joyfully' the self-destruct thing, quick-sand-like !!!

The only questions is will there be a 'big bang' at the very end or perhaps some last atempts to rescue sound politics ??!!

I do know China, Russia and the US well enough to predict in the case of the BIG BANG, the WEST & the US will be dusted, ruined and never be able to play that cruel, bloody EMPIRE role again. Again, just read the history of the blue planet. The rise and fall of emires.

The EVIL of Biden, Johnson & Co. might never be trailed... however the political landscape has been changing, slowley but constantly, meaning, there's hope for the NON-WESTERN-WORLD, even if the BB is that price to pay.

I personally do believe the USA must be 'neutered', in what way ever, we'll see... Otherwise there'll be not enough space for new developments.

To belive the USA might be able to reform its bloody, greedy and arrogant compositions is just wishful thinking.

Huge amounts of money are involved linked to mighty, powerful elites behind the close curtains, who also seems to be addicted to RULE THIS WORLD in their favor for their bank accounts and so called POWER & INFLUENCE.

Unfortunately !!!

Posted by: Ashino | Dec 5 2023 11:53 utc | 37

More Stirling coverage by b.

Of those embracing war, which is always a means to achieving political / economic / financial ends. (These days more the latter of the three than the former.)

Inferior strategists believe that might makes right and that God is always on 'our' side. Got mitt uns.

Mediocre strategists understand that military results in the field usually boil down to 'logistics, logistics, logistics'.

Superior strategists know that right makes right, that a clear skein of virtue running from top to bottom and bottom to top in both the military and wider society, along with determined, competent management of personnel and logistics, will assure victory because the above being true there is no need for kinetic conflict unless the other side is operating without such virtue which corruption, over time, will assure their defeat, mainly manifesting as a collapse from within as the spirit of the people, not being bound in virtuous solidarity, cannot endure the hardships involved.

Russian conservatives worry that Putin will compromise with his beloved West too soon and too generously. Possible. But I think he has to keep turning the screws until true hardship is felt within Western States such that internal turmoil causes them to cease their endless meddling far afield, close down their foreign bases and rather by necessity attend to long overdue politico-social reform so they can rediscover authentic virtue within their people and governance.

Such internal hardship in the Homeland is coming in 2024. Quite possibly there will be no end to the kinetics until that unfolds and with it an entirely different strategic orientation.

Posted by: Scorpion | Dec 5 2023 11:55 utc | 38

https://t.me/rybar/54741

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Drone raid on Crimea

🔻After midnight, Ukrainian formations launched several groups of drones from the outskirts of Zaporozhye in the direction of Crimea, the route of which skirted the airspace of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions.

▪️The first two drones were shot down over Genichesk, and the rest headed through the Sea of Azov to Kerch and Feodosia. Three more UAVs were shot down near Bagerovo. Judging by the direction, the target was the positions of the 31st division in the Kerch region, photos of which appeared on the Internet a couple of days ago.

▪️Also, 11 drones were shot down and suppressed on approach to Feodosia, and two more were right at the oil terminal. Apparently, the Ukrainian Armed Forces intended to hit the oil depot and power plant in the city.

▪️And 17 others were hit at Cape Chauda - the drones were maneuvering, trying to enter Russian positions from the sea. A total of 35 UAVs were destroyed, of which 15 were shot down by air defense, 13 were suppressed by electronic warfare, and seven were hit by small arms.

🔻The attack by Ukrainian forces occurred immediately after a slight improvement in weather conditions. There was an RQ-4B UAV in the air, which, after the 31st Air Force and Air Defense Division began operating, departed for Romanian airspace.

Typically, such drone raids are intended to check and evaluate the work of the 31st air and air defense divisions in the east of the peninsula. And only after, if we take into account previous attempts, a missile attack occurs.

Taking this into account, in the next few days, under favorable conditions, attempts at strikes on Crimea are quite possible. Moreover, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have means of destruction. Just the other day, a batch of Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles was delivered to Starokonstantinov.

Posted by: anon2020 | Dec 5 2023 12:00 utc | 39

Superior strategists know that right makes right,

Should be:

Superior strategists know that right makes might,

Posted by: Scorpion | Dec 5 2023 12:04 utc | 40

US generals have not won a war in what 50? years.This was going to be different?USA is used to going on safari against 3rd world tribesman,and they lost to them,so fck off with their planning.If they had all American and British and Poles they would have had to deal with several hundred thousand dead and wounded.But since it was mostly Ukrainians fertilizing the soil of Ukraine nobody cares.Maybe the survivors will hunt down the people that planned the clsterfck

Posted by: homer d | Dec 5 2023 12:10 utc | 41

WaPo and NYT, CNN,Fox, MSNBC just preach to the party faithful.

Americans with interest in these matters have long since tuned out the MSM. Instead we rely on outlets like MOA.

So, it doesn’t matter what those White House bozos say. Unless the BIG CHEAT is already a done deal, no Dem, or Nicki Haley type will win the Presidency. Look for more MTG types. Lindsey Graham should be shopping for a retirement home. The other side of it is the end of Zionist influence among MAGA types. Just as it once was a necessity to swear fealty to AIPAC, soon it will be a necessity to condemn them.

Remember, Americans by nature are FAR more violent than the Germans. The chickens will return to roost.

Posted by: OldFart | Dec 5 2023 12:11 utc | 42

Glory glory .. err hang on a moment though before we all start the celebrations.
That would s not meant for our pragmatic host but the barflies.

Great to see that the light at the end of the tunnel is actually day light - not another deadly train hurtling to crush us again.
But …
Really will it be all over by Xmas?
Football in no-man’s land.??

De-Militarisation seems to be approaching completion. Except for some demented die hards who instead of being allowed their suicidal Valhalla gaining moment will be drawn back to the Canadian and other 5 eyes, back woods to hide and breed again.

De-nazification hasn’t been anywhere near started yet including in the Collective Waste.

There’s all these Bandera statues and street names to destroy. The Churhes to be returned to hallowed status. The history and science books restored without banderite Ukrop supremacy lunacy, the Red Army’s memory and centuries old Russian culture restored.

The hearts and minds of the children to be saved first. The ones who have been brainwashed to be rebalanced. The mass media propagandists to be pilloried and their lies to be eaten by them publicly. They can choke on them. As they have turned against their own civilians. The ones tied to lampposts and degraded for knowing only a different language. The churchgoers humiliated and denied their personal beliefs which carried no harm to any of their neighbours.

Then there’s the actual killers and worst of all the conspirators and profiteers who will be the ones attempting to be taken to safety and ‘whitewashed’. They need to be caught and punished. There should be left no wealth for them and their heirs to keep and benefit from.and they themselves ought to turn themselves in to face trial or be part of the “Wanted Dead or Alive” posters and cards, so beloved of the cowboy mongrel nations fantasy history. who have AGAIN overestimated their own abilities to direct a proxy war as they did 80 years ago with the Hitleriites.

These barely concealed Hitlers grand kids and still sieg heiling grandees in unelected and propagandised voter fraud leadership roles across Europe and the 5+1 Eyed Empire - the Zion Kings are the Nazgûl , the martial old aristos and their praetorians , the DS wallahs in shadows and bright lights of the media pulpits - many of whom must face the ultimate punishment for the blood on their hands or life, meaning life incarceration, if they are willing to be so punished.

That’s for us in the Collective Waste to ALSO do - we must be part of that cleansing too and not always rely on the sacrifice of common Russian folks, to save us from our own fascism - which is rampant and barely concealed in every European old imperial state. We are xenophobes - Russophobic and now China-phobic for that next attempt at War in the East.

The ultimate delusion that the repeated tenure of some Leaders is not valid, but never elected Monarchs and their modern versions the CEO’s and Major Shareholder of corporations richer than many nations combined - are!

Blinkered as we are to the Leadership of these ‘partners from the Arab Sheiks, the Modi fascism on the rise in that fairytale ‘greatest democracy’, which still retains the greatest poverty; as we are blind to the fascist brutality of the Zionazis in the ‘only democracy’ of the Levant daily proved a lie bullshit

Our deluded idiot shallow public, family and friends included, still hypnotised by the easy money of the modern tulip bubbles - Crypto and Pharma elixirs. The ‘News’ they believe is only mainstream and nothing but Big Brotherly daily lies. The hot tips are just rumour mills from social media allowing for pump and dump of fake get rich quick investments. Using borrowed money or unaffordable expense from austere income and fake inflation.

The crimes and their perpetrators must be named. Legally charged and trialled and punished for their great crimes against humanity. Their acceptance of guilt and punishment and ultimate restoration to civilised humanity majority.
Not brushed under the carpet as is being done by the Covid Inquiry in London now.

Finally of course , the living gods must be felled. Those ultimate Owners and their Magick Money Powers and inhuman witchcraftery and costume dressing, bloody skin wearing - Shapeshifters.

They must fall with their Ancient Empire and turned to dust. Their remains forever cast to the winds and depths never to be worshipped again let alone remembered.
Whether it is seen or not. Because they must not ever be allowed to coordinate another rise, another military nazification pseudo or real religious murderous folly of innocents or guilty proxies.

Posted by: DunGroanin | Dec 5 2023 12:14 utc | 43

The Pentagon wanted the assault to begin in mid-April to prevent Russia from continuing to strengthen its lines. The Ukrainians hesitated

Napoleons invasion of Russia commenced on June 24.
Hitler's "Operation Barbarossa" ... June 22.
German case blau 1942 offensive ... June 28.
German Kursk offensive 1943 ... July 5.
Soviet "Bagration offensive 1944 ... June 22.
Ukrainian summer offensive 2023 ... June 8.

Yea the Ukrainians hesitated because they understand that "combined arms" doesn't mean using your tanks to pull other tanks out of the mud. I don't know what they teach these guys at West Point but it ain't pattern recognition or common sense.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Dec 5 2023 12:24 utc | 44

Satepestage @10: "That said there is too much gloating, Ukraine still has plenty of fight in it even if they are on a downward curve."

Disgusting nafo troll. Here's the translation: "There are still some Ukrainians left! We can still use the Ukraine as a blunt object to try to batter Russia with!"

You scum don't care if there is nothing left of the Ukraine when the dust settles.

Posted by: William Gruff | Dec 5 2023 12:28 utc | 45

While 500 - 1000 Ukr. lives are lost per day, where's the surrenders, the fragging, the panicked collapse of the Ukr. army? They retreat a kilometer or two and "collapse" is declared and You Tube videos proclaim Ukraine is finished. It gets tiresome. The dominant factor is inertia, defeat in slow motion. Zelensky is the tail that wags the dog and foot dragging Western nations don't have the spine to actually Hard Stop the war.

They can keep buying bullets indefinitely, even with bankruptcy. And they can dig trenches and keep dying. 48% don't want the war to stop. Unconditional surrender is as much a fantasy as thinking Ukraine has any chance of winning. Only demographic exhaustion will give Russia peace. To The Last Ukrainian.

Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 5 2023 12:57 utc | 46

May I step in here and explain the West's negotiation position, from the words of Hersh et al.

I'm going to all this trouble , because I hate to see you all wasting your time, trying to parse all this 'intelligence'.

The West's position.

1. We will recognise Crimea. Translation - in return, we will build a huge NATO naval base in Odessa. When it suits, we will un-recognise Crimea.

2. We will suspend sanctions. Translation - we will switch off a few minor sanctions to give the feeling of goodwill. When it suits suits us, they will be ON again, hard.

3. We will suspend sanctions Part 2. Translation, Western-based Russian oligarchs, who are in our pocket, will use the sanctions window to drain off all their Russian capital that has not been available to them due to capital controls. Russian banks will be sucked dry, and the all-time high investment cycles in Russia currently will collapse.

4. We will jointly agree a programme to restore war damage to Ukraine. Translation - we will use your seized $ billions to restore specific Western Ukraine cities and infrastructure by handing the cash to Blackrock et al. Where the money eventually ends up is anyone's guess.

5. We will agree a European security structure that encompasses Russia. Translation - we will 'encompass' Russian via the entry into NATO of Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, all the Central Asian 'stans', and any other rag-tag-and-bobtail nation state, or breakaway republic we can create, fund or foment.

6. You have our word. We will agree an joint document and sign it. Translation, document shmockucent! Any such document is subordinate to our 'rules-based order', i.e. any rule we choose to make as we go along.

7. We will remove our AEGIS Ashore Nuclear capability from Poland and Romania. Translation - we will put them in Finland and the Baltics instead, so that our nuclear capability is snuggled up so close to you you can smell it. Plus all the nuclear cruise missiles in our US, UK and EU Odessa-based naval flotillas and subs, of course!

8. We hope for a peaceful and enduring prosperity between the West and Mother Russia. Translation - we hate your guts for humiliating us. Next time, we will come back even harder.

Posted by: scepticalSOB | Dec 5 2023 13:19 utc | 47

@ Eighthman | Dec 5 2023 12:57 utc | 46

Patience, patience, patience. The Ukraine is indeed finished, and (more or less) unconditional surrender will occur, but it will take a while yet. Nazi Germany was effectively finished by mid-1944 at the latest, but continued fighting until it consisted of little more than Berlin.

Posted by: malenkov | Dec 5 2023 13:21 utc | 48

@ scepticalSOB | Dec 5 2023 13:19 utc | 47

All so obviously true, and so well formulated. Kudos!

Posted by: malenkov | Dec 5 2023 13:24 utc | 49

The game is over! Selenskyj is on the verge of a deep fall (deadly?). Putin still needs time to depress the US to the point, where Black Rocks capital and property will be completely confiscated by Russia. Then Ukaine, which never really existed, will desintegrate.

Posted by: hatomune | Dec 5 2023 13:29 utc | 50

NATO intelligence preparation of the battle field was based on non sense propaganda.

The planners underestimated the needed fires by a factor of 10 times.

The planners overestimated the logistic position of the NATO side by a factor of 20 times.

The military regime that lost to the Taliban was not up to dealing with an army.

Fruits of the military industry complex are evident only in the net worth of investors in Lockheed.

Posted by: paddy | Dec 5 2023 13:41 utc | 51

@ 47

there is nothing to do ! as long as there is a Yankee alive, there will be wars!

Russia and China must decide to destroy the USA
Cost what it costs

Posted by: kamma43muri | Dec 5 2023 13:56 utc | 52

the US needs to revisit the scene of one of its only military successes, i refer of course to the invasion of Grenada. They could conduct mock invasions with blanks in the guns, like one of those civil war reenactments, do it on a yearly basis, provide some no doubt much needed income to the locals, to get rid of the psychological need to invade foreign countries. the world would be a much better place, the US would be a much better place, and i don't really see a downside for Grenada, instead a boost to the local economy.plus it would bankrupt the defense industry.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Dec 5 2023 14:24 utc | 53

The strategic miscalculation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with an attempt to seize a bridgehead on the left bank of the Kherson region was another attempt by Bankova to create the illusion of a creeping offensive, but which devoured the best infantry units and further depleted reserves in manpower.

Instead of strengthening the defense in advance, Bankovaya played its game of pursuing political situational goals, but which had nothing real with reality.

As usual, they wanted to show the West that we are advancing, there is a result, give us weapons and money, but as we see, the partners did not believe it and now this “brilliant idea” will have consequences, just like the “Bakhmutov meat grinder”, which devoured forces and weakened the offensive, postponing the deadline from spring to summer, giving time to the RF Armed Forces to prepare even better.

Now the result will most likely be the loss of Avdeevka, where the Russians are tightening the stranglehold.


https://t.me/legitimniy/16828
Our source reports that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may lose the village of Rabotino in the coming months. The situation on that flank is sad.

Now the weather is helping to hold the defense, but as soon as frost hits, the situation may change immediately.
There is information that the Russians are bringing reserves to this region.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are facing a global shortage of ammunition.
It may happen that the Russians massively break through the defenses in many places at the same time, which will lead to dire consequences.

This is the result of an incorrectly chosen military strategy by the OP and the race for pictures and window dressing.


https://t.me/legitimniy/16831

Posted by: Down South | Dec 5 2023 14:30 utc | 54

War is a racket. - Smedley Butler

The US didn't lose money or personnel(none visible to the populace, so "none"). It cleared out a bunch of old military hardware, grabbed a bunch of money and got commitments to pump out new hardware. In order to lock into this game it created a new Cold War. Europe was further subjugated and is now forced into more expenditures for US weapons and energy. No one in the US will be penalized (except the common person).

I think the US gamed this out quite well.

Yes, there's the slide of the USD but that was always to be. All of this is controlled demolition.

Posted by: Seer | Dec 5 2023 14:32 utc | 55

Hitler's "Operation Barbarossa" ... June 22.

Yea the Ukrainians hesitated because they understand that "combined arms" doesn't mean using your tanks to pull other tanks out of the mud. I don't know what they teach these guys at West Point but it ain't pattern recognition or common sense.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Dec 5 2023 12:24 utc | 44

It is well known that Hitler had planned to start earlier. But then some trouble with Yugoslavia happened and he decided to attack that first.

Posted by: Wim | Dec 5 2023 14:41 utc | 56

The problem I see with talking about 'mistakes' is that the people identifying them never propose what the correct course of action would have been. Everyone, everywhere, at all times, whether you like them or hate them, has limited options. Sometimes none of them are good, none of them can lead to 'success.' Ukraine/NATO/US had no options, ever, that would have led to victory over Russia. Fortunately for the US, and disastrously for Ukraine and the EU, victory over Russia was not the US aim. The aim was to 'weaken' Russia while crushing the EU economy and bringing it completely under control of Americentric interests. While the behind-the-scenes offensive of bribery and blackmail to extend control of EU leaders well beyond that implied by 'shared interests' was being waged since 1948, the first open act of war took place under Trump, when he cancelled the Iran nuke deal. The cheap energy, new markets, and huge infrastructure projects that European, not American, companies would have enjoyed were the last remaining off-ramp from the ponzi scheme of private central bank money supply. The EU central bank began printing money with abandon to prevent the collapse of its economy, heightening its dependence on the US while German industry began its decline.

The war in Ukraine is the kinetic phase of the US/European war, and the US is winning handily. Sanctions only bolstered the Russian economy, but they have been very effective at crippling the EU and thus extending the life of Americentric finance capitalism.

The fatal error in all this is capitalism. Once one embraces capitalism, decisions become merely tactical, because strategic defeat is inevitable. Unless, of course, somebody just knocks over the table with a few thousand nukes while they are 'winning.'

I am convinced that this is the main concern of Putin and Xi, and many others: avoiding nuclear winter while grinding down US hegemony. It should, I think, be ours as well. Tactical errors in local engagements on either side are just that, as long as they don't suddenly escalate into nuclear war.

Posted by: Honzo | Dec 5 2023 14:41 utc | 57

I agree with all your points on why the counter offensive failed but I would argue that had Zalushny and the Ukrainian army total control of the offensive with no interference from usuk or Z, the Russians would have had a serious battle on their hands.
On the subject of 17 million rounds of ammunition, I don't think that's a massive ask when you consider the Ukrainians have say 200,000 men, 1000 rounds of ammunition each would be 200 million rounds. Artillery shells are a different matter unless the Ukrainians could do a deal with the Russians.

Posted by: Eoin Clancy | Dec 5 2023 14:42 utc | 58

Putin Tells European Ambassadors He Regrets Bad Ties

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday complained of deteriorating ties with Western countries, which crumbled after he launched a full-scale offensive against Ukraine last year, as he accepted the credentials of several new ambassadors.

At a Kremlin ceremony, Putin swore in some two dozen new ambassadors, including from countries such as Britain and Germany, with whom relations have been especially tense during the 21-month-long offensive.

"The times are not easy," Putin told the envoys, with Russia hit by unprecedented rounds of Western sanctions as Moscow's offensive grinds on for another winter.

Addressing the new ambassador of the U.K., with whom ties have been especially frosty even before the Ukraine offensive, he said Moscow and London were able to overcome differences in the 20th century.

"In the post-war [WWII] period and until recently, our countries were able to build relations," the Russian leader said.

"But the current state of things... is well known and we should hope that the situation — in the interest of our countries and nations — will change for the better."

Putin told the German ambassador that he regretted that Berlin was weaning itself off Russian energy.

"For over half a century we were able with Germany to develop a pragmatic business approach that was comfortable for both our countries and the whole European continent," said Putin, who speaks German and who was posted to Dresden during his time with the KGB.

"Our country without fail supplied Germany with ecologically clean gas," he said.

"This partnership was literally blown up by the explosion of the gas pipe," he added, referring to the Nord Stream gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea that was damaged by a series of mysterious blasts in September 2022. [...]


https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/12/04/putin-tells-european-ambassadors-he-regrets-bad-ties-a83313


Posted by: Apollyon | Dec 5 2023 14:44 utc | 59

TVictor vicktop55
@vicktop55
The Russian State Duma announced the revival of the SMERSH service - which stands for "death to spies", a military counterintelligence service.
Units appeared in new territories - in the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. General Gurulev reported this:

“The created department operates on the principle of Soviet military counterintelligence,” wrote Lieutenant General Andrei Gurulev, a member of the State Duma Committee on Defense, on Telegram.
In his opinion, a similar structure should operate in Russian regions.
Just the day before yesterday we wrote about the need to restore the SMERSH regime in the country, and here is the first sign - SMERSH has been restored in new territories! But this is only the first step! It is needed throughout the country during the SMO! And also military courts with an expedited investigation procedure and execution for sabotage, sabotage and terrorism! So we will win!


The Brits will be running operations behind Russia lines for a long time unless their networks and cells within Russia are found and destroyed. But UK with its Canadian colony has a good supply of WWII Ukraine nazi's to keep drip feeding into Russia for sometime. More still in Banderastan.
I Assume US/UK are also hoping for large Russian offensives with occupation of somewhat or very hostile arras to kick off insurgency/guerrilla/terrorist warfare. Even Kherson and Zal have had a number of local officials killed to date, mostly in bombings. If Russia takes more territory, Odessa ect, this will greatly increase.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 5 2023 15:02 utc | 60

"b" - I simply don't see how all this talk of a Ukrainian "peace settlement" can come to anything. It looks like the West just talking to itself.

After Istanbul it seemed clear that the only negotiations with Kiev would be on the terms of capitulation. Now, after all that has occurred, that must be even more the case. Anything else would lead to political instability in Russia itself. The Russians have now put too much into the conflict.. Anything like a Minsk 3 is now out of reach and has been since at least the early days of the SMO.

Those Bandera monuments are going to have to come down. Surety against drone or rocket attacks from remnant Ukraine has to be achieved. Cross border raids and sabotage attempts from remnant Ukraine have to be stopped: I recollect articles in the American press asserting that the Ukrainians are being trained for and assisted in such attempts by the West and presumably the Russians will have seen those articles too. And there must be no danger that remnant Ukraine can once more be armed and supported by NATO and once more built up into a security threat to Russia, that including of course the Russians of the Donbass.

How that is to be done is immaterial but there can be no "settlement" short of that. Putin likes deals that arrive at some sort of accommodation - he's always wary of pushing thing too far - but there is no wriggle room here for such accommodation. If the stated aims of the SMO are not achieved then his position within Russia becomes untenable.

Expecting anything short of that is as foolish as imagining that the Russian or our forces in 1944 had suddenly said "Well, we've done enough now. Let's leave it at that." The peoples of the various countries would not have stood for it. So here. After the blood and sacrifice of the last year and more the people of Russia will stand for nothing less than final and complete achievement of the SMO goals.

There might be wriggle room in deciding what is to happen with the Western investments in Ukraine. Those are now substantial. A good deal of property in the country seems to be owned one way or another by Western interests. If there is way of safeguarding Russian security interests without wholesale dispossession of those Western interests then maybe that way will be found. Those Western commercial and financial interests are not to be easily challenged.

But it's difficult to imagine a remnant Ukraine effectively under full Russian control and the Western investors still receiving a return on their investments. Particularly in the case of farmland, the people of remnant Ukraine are going to have a difficult enough time getting back to some sort of normal while still encumbered with such a liability. Much of their country was sold from underneath them to Western interests in the past few years and they will not find it easy if it remains sold.

Such details aside, the shape of the post war position is already fixed. Russia will absorb as much of the old Ukraine as it finds appropriate and will ensure remnant Ukraine is de-nazified and cannot again become a security threat. Anything else and Putin's stay in power is likely to be brief.

Of course we do not yet know how that post war position will be reached and do not know to what extent reaching it will entail accommodation with the West. But that it will be reached is past doubt and has been so since Istanbul. My personal view is that it was past doubt since the start of the SMO - I still don't regard the various "peace negotiations" in the early days as more than gestures from both sides - but that view is not generally accepted and whether it is or not is irrelevant here.

The Ukrainian question settled, is that it? Does it all stop there?

I can't see how it can. The 2021 Russian European security demands are still on the table.

Posted by: English Outsider | Dec 5 2023 15:04 utc | 61

Typos in my last comment... " Zal? - Even Kherson and Zaporizhzhia have had a number of local officials killed to date, mostly in bombings.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 5 2023 15:13 utc | 62

Re: Posted by: William Gruff | Dec 5 2023 12:28 utc | 45

You scum don't care if there is nothing left of the Ukraine when the dust settles.

Get a grip Bill.

That is not up to The West to decide - it is up to the Ukrainians themselves to make this decision to recognize this reality.

Posted by: Julian | Dec 5 2023 15:15 utc | 63

Re: Posted by: scepticalSOB | Dec 5 2023 13:19 utc | 47

8. We hope for a peaceful and enduring prosperity between the West and Mother Russia. Translation - we hate your guts for humiliating us. Next time, we will come back even harder.

Well done - you have nailed it.

If Russia/Putin is FOOLISH ENOUGH to sign any peace agreement/treaty with The West over the Ukraine - before an UNCONDITIONAL VICTORY & DEFEAT OF UKRAINE they have only themselves to blame for being fools and knaves.

Why keep saying The West is "AGREEMENT INCAPABLE" if you then go an sign a worthless treaty with them anyway?

The treatment of Igor Girkin is very instructive for anyone doubting this will happen.

Posted by: Julian | Dec 5 2023 15:19 utc | 64

I noticed today that Blinken has developed the "long stare".

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 5 2023 15:20 utc | 65

Re: Posted by: Apollyon | Dec 5 2023 14:44 utc | 59

Putin Tells European Ambassadors He Regrets Bad Ties>

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday complained of deteriorating ties with Western countries, which crumbled after he launched a full-scale offensive against Ukraine last year, as he accepted the credentials of several new ambassadors.

At a Kremlin ceremony, Putin swore in some two dozen new ambassadors, including from countries such as Britain and Germany, with whom relations have been especially tense during the 21-month-long offensive.

"The times are not easy," Putin told the envoys, with Russia hit by unprecedented rounds of Western sanctions as Moscow's offensive grinds on for another winter.

Addressing the new ambassador of the U.K., with whom ties have been especially frosty even before the Ukraine offensive, he said Moscow and London were able to overcome differences in the 20th century.

"In the post-war [WWII] period and until recently, our countries were able to build relations," the Russian leader said.

"But the current state of things... is well known and we should hope that the situation — in the interest of our countries and nations — will change for the better."

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/12/04/putin-tells-european-ambassadors-he-regrets-bad-ties-a83313

Does anyone want to dispute the translation by The Moscow Times?

If not - the implication is clear - Putin is itching to do a deal with the EU/UK/Germany/France etc.

Why is he even acting like these people are still partners? Or potential partners?

Because he wants a deal. He considers the EU to be victims of the US.

A terrible mistake it looks likely he is to make in 2024/25.

It is only because of the Americans/Ukrainians this war will continue until 2025 - the Russians are there waiting to sign pieces of paper and declare victory and Peace in our Time

Posted by: Julian | Dec 5 2023 15:30 utc | 66

The finnish defense ministry announced the readiness to produce artillery shells for the ukraine.

“He told Iltalehti newspaper on Tuesday that the details of how artillery shells would be produced for Ukraine had been finalized, and a decision on the matter would be made “very soon.”“

Revanchismus (as our german government loves to call russia/china etc) at its finest.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Dec 5 2023 15:36 utc | 67

2. We will suspend sanctions. Translation - we will switch off a few minor sanctions to give the feeling of goodwill. When it suits suits us, they will be ON again, hard.

3. We will suspend sanctions Part 2. Translation, Western-based Russian oligarchs, who are in our pocket, will use the sanctions window to drain off all their Russian capital that has not been available to them due to capital controls. Russian banks will be sucked dry, and the all-time high investment cycles in Russia currently will collapse.

Posted by: scepticalSOB | Dec 5 2023 13:19 utc | 47

Sanctions are the best thing that could have happened to the Russian economy. Why would any non-traitor Russian statesman want them removed? May they last a very long time...

7. We will remove our AEGIS Ashore Nuclear capability from Poland and Romania. Translation - we will put them in Finland and the Baltics instead, so that our nuclear capability is snuggled up so close to you you can smell it. Plus all the nuclear cruise missiles in our US, UK and EU Odessa-based naval flotillas and subs, of course!

Because people still don't realize what the real game here is (it isn't about Ukraine, it is about Russia and its resources, which the West desperately needs to loot to buy itself another few decades of stability), there is also little understanding that this will not stop with Ukraine and the way things are going, at some point the Kremlin will have to nuke those sites out of existence. It will "have to", but will it have the balls to do so?

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Dec 5 2023 15:36 utc | 68

The conflict is not "done". Now is just the public gnashing of teeth and the finger pointing amongst those who backed and executed the war plan in an effort to scare up more resources to continue. We will see how successful Z's video chat today with US senators is. Europe and the US are still providing war material to Ukraine and planning how to send more. A wild card is the political conflict in Kiev and whether this can be settled quickly without degenerating into more widespread infighting.

I believe Russia would rather eventually talk to a government structure run by the military that had a realistic chance to make potentially politically difficult or unpopular agreements and enforce them. That is the grain of sense in the Hersh fantasy piece which, as Doctorow points out, was not "investigative reporting" but simply a political leak intended to push an agenda using Hersh as a vehicle.

Posted by: the pessimist | Dec 5 2023 15:42 utc | 69

The roundtable (with Zelensky), convened by JPMorgan Chase, included former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, billionaire Mike Bloomberg, New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft, hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman, former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and billionaire Barry Sternlicht, the source said.

One of these guys is not like the others, six of these guys are kinda the same. Can you guess why the one guy's not like the others? Now it's time to play our game, it's time to play our game.

Posted by: ASensibleMan | Dec 5 2023 15:42 utc | 70

I wonder if an inclusion of all of Ukraine into Russia would not be the best idea. All inhabitants of Ukraine not happy with that should be allowed passage to the EU or anyone happy to take them.
You could even offer them assisted passage.
Leaving any of the rot undealt with, will just assure a future problem. At the same time, Russia should expel Black Rock and take over any farm land they lay claim to. The value can be off-set against "frozen" Russian assets in the US and EU.
That would be best for Russia and Ukraine.

Posted by: g wiltek | Dec 5 2023 15:43 utc | 71

@shаdοwbanned | Dec 5 2023 15:36 utc | 68

Please spare us all your broken record missives. Thankfully you are in charge of exactly nothing.

Posted by: the pessimist | Dec 5 2023 15:45 utc | 72

From the the previous thread:

Russia is iterating munitions development so fast. One might expect that we’d be seeing a mini arms race but there seems to be no such iterating and testing on the western side. The switchblade was gonna be a thing, flopped and then we haven’t seen or heard about an improvement or any analogues to drones like the Geran and Lancet. And I don’t buy that they’re being kept under wraps, the value is getting them to see real use.

Posted by: Lex | Dec 5 2023 1:48 utc | 148

It doesn't work that way in a system where R&D is in the private sector.

How does it normally happen in peace time?

Officially the Pentagon puts out some specs and then the defense contractors compete for the contract with alternative products that meet those specs, then the Pentagon decides who to give the contract too. Then it gets produced in whatever quantities were planned, subject to Congress changing its mind about the whole thing and slashing the procurement budget for it.

The reality if, of course, a bit different -- the specs are defined together with the defense contractor lobbyists, there is no real competition for the contract, and production is widely distributed across many subcontractors in many different places for political reasons, all of them in the private sector.

There is also some R&D done in-house by the government, but it is not the dominant component, aside from nukes (and not even for many aspects of the nuclear program).

Now a war comes and you need fast iteration with real-time feedback from the battlefield. Does such a system work? Not at all -- information from the battlefield has to be processed by the clumsy bureaucratic machine at the Pentagon, specs have to be defined, the MIC has to do the R&D and testing, but it will only make that investment if there is certainty about profits, and it all takes forever and at an exorbitant cost, if it ever happens. And because missiles and drones are not launched against DC, NYC, and ATL daily and nobody is dying, profit is the only driving force in the process.

Meanwhile in Russia the MIC is almost entirely state-owned and directly integrated with the military, and the private companies operate in such close cooperation too, and right now nobody is too obsessed with contracts and profits, because people are dying and this is an existential war. So what is happening on the front lines makes its way as demands for improvements to the design and constructions bureaus in real time, and you have that fast iteration.

But still, there are baffling cases, i.e. this:

This is particularly true for something like a Geran analogue. That could be produced almost anywhere, relatively quickly and in pretty large numbers cheaply. The brightest minds of the giant western economies can’t (?) make a cheap and effective solution anymore. Can’t even just copy one. That should be something Ukrainians can do domestically with just parts and maybe some initial manufacturing work in Europe or the US. Still no.

Posted by: Lex | Dec 5 2023 1:48 utc | 148

I also expected them to be in a position to send large drone swarms towards central Russia daily by now. This is a well defined objective with an already worked out technical solution. Hasn't really happened.

Some possible explanations:

1) They tried to set it up, but you actually can't produce these efficiently distributed in various garages, you need larger facilities, and those got immediately destroyed by missiles strikes
2) They couldn't set it up outside Ukraine because it was communicated through the back channels that this will not be tolerated and those facilities will be bombed (notice that Germany still hasn't sent Taurus after such threats were made publicly)
3) Russian air defense adjusted quite well after it was initially penetrated fairly deeply a few months ago and now nothing makes it very far beyond Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod, and certainly not to target.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Dec 5 2023 15:46 utc | 73

...his position within Russia becomes untenable...Anything else and Putin's stay in power is likely to be brief...
Posted by: English Outsider | Dec 5 2023 15:04 utc | 61

You "Outsiders" just keep repeating such words and you do not understand, what is Putin for Russia - do not measure him by your own Trusses and Sunaks. Should Putin command to stop the SMO today and just pull all the armies out, even this would not endanger his position as the national leader.

Posted by: Poslan1 | Dec 5 2023 15:46 utc | 74

"This offensive was publicly discussed and trumpeted months in advance. Weird."

Complete with an internet ad campaign of UAF personnel putting a finger over their mouth in a shhhhh be quiet. Don't tell the Russians we are coming. Lol

Posted by: Goldhoarder | Dec 5 2023 15:52 utc | 75

I am a classic armchair general. I play wargames.

I was 90% certain the Ukie Offensive would fail and I was of that opinion before it started: the extensive Kursk-like defences, imbalance in artillery and logistic support, mish-mash of Western equipment, no air cover.


Posted by: JulianJ | Dec 5 2023 8:57 utc | 21

Apologies for selectively quoting you. Me too, and I agree 100% with your analysis. There is no way anyone with even a cursory knowledge of military affairs could ever think this might succeed.

Posted by: marcjf | Dec 5 2023 15:52 utc | 76

Dec 5 2023 15:36 utc | 68

I entirely agree, shadowbanned. There's no point re-dollarising the Russian economy again, it would just be a hostage to the US 'full spectrum dominance' doctrine again.

And the existing capital controls keeps all Russian oligarch money in Russia. No more mansions, luxury yachts, and expensive jewellery for the Bimbos.

Posted by: scepticalSOB | Dec 5 2023 15:56 utc | 77

In this piece and many, many, MANY others, you'll see that the entirety of Ukraine/USA's strategy is always "Don't worry, the Russians will run away."

Literally.

Posted by: Sam (in Tiraspol) | Dec 5 2023 7:56 utc | 8

#################

The problem with speaking so much BS is that words have power and over time that BS becomes a core belief.

America is the capital of BS, always spinning failure into victory to the point where they don't even know what a victory looks like anymore.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 5 2023 15:59 utc | 78

US/UK feign having failed but in my view they havent failed.
They successfully managed to weaken the potential size of the forces they will face later.
The meatgrinder is a successful US/UK projekt.
And they managed to bring down and humiliate the Europeans instead of seeing them create win-win ties with Russia and China.
That part was gained by the US/UK poker players against the dumb and bribed european establishment.

And the US has had more time to augment the MIC's technological progress.
The sanctions war not to be forgotten.
In particular the one against China.

It isnt the first time Britain has pretended that they were weak while everything was actually going according to plan.
Examples: Gallipoli 1915, the Russian 'civil war', WW2 multiple examples: France Norway Poland and even Finland.
Britain made speeches for the record but had no intention of providing effective support.
...
Had the US/UK opted for going closer to WW3 conditions beyond the meatgrinder they had reason to believe that Russia would have struck back.
The US/UK didnt need that.
And experts on their own sides predicted the failure.
Or rather the feigned failure.

We continue always finding someone to listen to among the US/UK
And I would say the otherwise regressing US/UK empire has scored big time in this poker game.

Therefore I doubt that the US/UK ever believed or sought a victory in Ukraine.

Posted by: petergrfstrm | Dec 5 2023 16:01 utc | 79

Posted by: English Outsider | Dec 5 2023 15:04 utc | 61

A great comment. Thanks.

Posted by: marcjf | Dec 5 2023 16:05 utc | 80

And we elect these idiots!

Posted by: Max | Dec 5 2023 8:43 utc | 16

I agree with everything but this bit, Max. Pray tell, who should we have elected? Are we sure Biden was even elected? Are we sure intelligence won't merely install the next president, with a window dressing of "democracy", of course?

We all wish it was as simple as just electing one of the two heads of the ruling class every four years. That would be so nice. Unfortunately, the only alternative for the residents of the US at this stage of crisis is a revolutionary civil war.

This is a major undertaking that requires vision, leadership and organization. The longer we remain propagandized about nonexistent "democracy" in the US, the worse it will get.

Start preparing for class war. It's the only solution at this stage of the crisis.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Dec 5 2023 16:05 utc | 81

I find Gilbert Doctorow's argument unconvincing at best. Russia might have been willing to accept Ukraine in NATO 10 years ago IF they had been given all of these conditions and guarantee's at that time. But since then what have we seen, the Americans, Germans, British and French have all admitted to lying to the Russians over the Minsk agreements in order to buy time to build a Ukrainian army to massacre ethnic Russians and seize Crimea by force. The US bombed the Nordstream pipelines which at the very least was done with the support of the Britain and Norway, and increasingly it looks like Shultz was at least aware of the plan and allowed it to proceed (which implies Germany tricked Russia into spending 10yrs and $10+ billion dollars building a pipeline they were going to destroy in the hopes of triggering an economic crisis and regime change in Russia). There's no way to have a relation with the US and the EU that involves any amount of trust (i.e. no join projects, no mutual treaties, not even statements of understanding), if Russia gives even one inch of territory to NATO, they can expect a military force there a day after.

Posted by: Kadath | Dec 5 2023 16:09 utc | 82

Why is he even acting like these people are still partners? Or potential partners?

Because he wants a deal. He considers the EU to be victims of the US.

A terrible mistake it looks likely he is to make in 2024/25.

It is only because of the Americans/Ukrainians this war will continue until 2025 - the Russians are there waiting to sign pieces of paper and declare victory and Peace in our Time

Posted by: Julian | Dec 5 2023 15:30 utc | 66

................................


Yes and no. Long-term Russia wants Western Europe in Eurasia where it belongs. A new civilization stretching from Vladivostok to Lisbon. Also a security concern: better to have genuine partners than enemies as neighbours.

He must prise Europe away from the Atlanticists / Maritime Powers which will no doubt be traumatic. Demilitarizing and deZionizing Israel will greatly help in that process so that the captured leadership classes there in can be deZionized as well.

Unless this is yet another Big Con.

Interesting times.

Posted by: Scorpion | Dec 5 2023 16:13 utc | 83

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Dec 5 2023 9:10 utc | 23

Interesting Oliver, can you explain why you think the whole thing started from Yankovych wanting to lease farmland to China? I hadn't heard that, presumably the Ukrainian president made some enemies by suggesting it.
I've read a fair bit about the Maidan coup but am always interested in the why.

Posted by: madmarc | Dec 5 2023 16:13 utc | 84

The value can be off-set against "frozen" Russian assets in the US and EU.
That would be best for Russia and Ukraine.
Posted by: g wiltek | Dec 5 2023 15:43 utc | 71
.............................

Great suggestion.

Posted by: Scorpion | Dec 5 2023 16:17 utc | 85

Shorter version: US was smart enough not to send 2 carrier groups.

Posted by: Elmagnostic | Dec 5 2023 16:47 utc | 86

Putin went further than spearing the emperor. “Our fight”, he declared, “for sovereignty and justice is, without exaggeration, one of national liberation, because we are upholding the security and well-being of our people, and our supreme historical right to be Russia – a strong independent power, a civilization state. It is our country, it is the Russian world that has blocked the way of those who aspired to world domination and exceptionalism, as it has happened many times in history. We are now fighting not just for Russia’s freedom but for the freedom of the whole world.”

This is the first time Putin has identified the doctrine of national liberation in ideological, economic, and in battlefield war against the US doctrine of hegemony and exceptionalism.

John Helmer
Dances With Bears
https://johnhelmer.net/russias-ideology-is-now-national-liberation-of-the-world-from-the-us-empire-with-an-assist-from-patriarch-kirill/#more-88962

Posted by: ld | Dec 5 2023 16:49 utc | 87

Russia's forced, but now successful de-dollarisation, made me wonder what other countries could achieve it, with or without sanctions/bully from the West.

They need to be large enough that they can sustain a gaps in their internal economy through import substitution.

India comes to mind, as long as it can import key commodities through BRICS. India has no wish to de-dollarise right now, but if it maintains the BRICS relationship it is less stressed by western economic leverage / bullying.

Posted by: scepticalSOB | Dec 5 2023 16:52 utc | 88

But Washington miscalculated the extent to which Ukraine’s forces could be transformed into a Western-style fighting force in a short period
Or perhaps the point is they succeeded.

Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 5 2023 16:57 utc | 89

Posted by: Satepestage | Dec 5 2023 8:07 utc | 10
Indeed, lots of jump of the gun talk going on.

"...It looks like the West just talking to itself...."
Posted by: English Outsider | Dec 5 2023 15:04 utc | 61
---
It does indeed appear that way, it's what they want out in the ether. We'll see, as always pay attention to what is actually done, not what is said.

Posted by: knighthawk | Dec 5 2023 16:59 utc | 90

Posted by: Kadath | Dec 5 2023 16:09 utc | 82

Yeah, I agree, Doctorow's argument is interesting but not convincing. A couple of years ago, it might have held up better. Too many burned bridges now. Putin may be a nice man, but he is no dummy.

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 5 2023 17:05 utc | 91

It is well known that Hitler had planned to start earlier. But then some trouble with Yugoslavia happened and he decided to attack that first.

Posted by: Wim | Dec 5 2023 14:41 utc | 56

Hitler can plan all he likes ... you won't be rolling down the dirt roads of Russia / Belarus until mid june. I live in similar country in Canada ... go into the shady woods in June and there's still frost in the ground ... the rivers are swollen meltwater and in western Russia June is the start of the rainy period.

You can do it but it's going to cost you in slow movement, lost vehicles and wasted fuel. If you're trying launch to stick to a timetable and have to coordinate movements you're out of luck ... it certainly won't be "lightning warfare" and come October you'll be wishing you didn't waste so much time and fuel playing in the mud and crossing torrential rivers in May.


Posted by: HB_Norica | Dec 5 2023 17:06 utc | 92

Posted by: scepticalSOB | Dec 5 2023 13:19 utc | 47

I’d tend to agree. Any treaties or agreements could only be signed after completion of a ten year prolonged evidence of goodwill clause. Even then, have your defences and security in order as the bastards will be back to try again.

Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Dec 5 2023 17:08 utc | 93

I never understood everyone to so blindly believe the western mainstream media.US is taking step back does not mean war is over.
- EU will take over from USA if it does not want refugees in their countries.
- Ukraine will shift to positional defense just like they did in 2014 in Donbass region.
- Dumping Ukraine at this stage will send a clear signal to China, Iran about US weakness. They will continue this war somehow.

And by the way, no one is bothered to know, what Russia is thinking about it?

Posted by: Ankit Khandelwal | Dec 5 2023 17:10 utc | 94

Dances with Bears today takes up this very topic. https://johnhelmer.net/

Helmer identifies Kremlin and Shoigu advisor Andrei Ilnitski as the theorist behind Russia's current moves.

He says Russia wants NATO rolled back to its 1997 borders- shown on the map. And that the current "peace talk' to the effect that it will settle for less- the torpedoed Ankara agreement for example or a Minsk III- is just CIA wishful thinking.

As b says Ukraine has been defeated and so has NATO which means that the struggle has only just begun.

But it has begun.

It is the same struggle as the one which began in 1918- the war against imperialism.

The war that ended in 1918 was the war for the Empire between the contenders for Hegemony within it, and thus over the world. It was a struggle taken up again in 1939, when it emerged that ending the struggle, and establishing the victory of the US UK Empire was only possible by enrolling the anti-imperialist armies- from the struggle that had begun in 1917/8

It was those armies ( the Red Army, the Peoples Liberation Army of China, and the world wide uprising of anti-fascist partisans, from Vietnam to Italy, from Yugoslavia and France to Malaya and far beyond) from the struggle, which begins with the Russian revolution, against imperialism (the very definition of an existential struggle) which tipped the scale, defeated European and Japanese fascism, and led to the situation after 1945.
Which is often misunderstood.

As the UN's founding documents suggest and the rhetoric of the New Dealers- famously resented by Churchill- shows, by 1945 the United States was theoretically committed to the cause of anti-imperialism. Hence the wave of colonial divestments by the UK, beginning in India (Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangla Desh and Burma) and engulfing the Asian empires of France and The Netherlands, then the African colonies in a long period of decolonising which only reached a conclusion with the end of the Rhodesian and South African regimes .

The US role was duplicitous to the point of being shizoid- it was all in favour of ending imperialism so long as the imperialists remained in control. The model was Latin America where post imperial rule was generally worse than anything the Spanish or Portuguese had been doing.

The same pattern emerged in Korea, where Kim Il Sung's national liberation armies were stopped by the forces of the Japanese occupiers re-organised by the US in the south. The case in Vietnam was similar. And that in Malaya not completely different. Ditto The Philippines. Indonesia was different: it took twenty years before Sukarno and the forces that he represented and protected were swept out of power on a tidal wave of innocent blood.

Throughout that post 1945 wave of decolonisation the real struggle between what was the Soviet Union, China and the forces of national liberation, on the one side and the old Empire, desperately trying to retain its grip on a world changing its form and shape, new born and wet from the womb, protesting, with increasing hollowness, that it was not what it seemed to be- the old genocidal, racist, plundering pirate Empire of old but a totally reformed successor, exemplified in the rule of the working class in Britain (Labour) and the freedom loving, gum chewing, egalitarian good fellow of the US "middle class' which had progressed beyond the crude divisiveness of Marxism into a new world where capitalist and proletarian played golf together, lived the same sort of lives, went to school together, married each others cousins-were each others cousins. All According to the Saturday Evening Post.
Unless of course, like most of the colonials, they had skins of a darker hue.
(Which was so embarassing that the CIA and State Department found themselves on the side of the Civil Rights movement, provided it was moderate enough not to do more than whine quietly. ..to which we can trace back the entire current phenomenon of wokeness in the ruling class, constantly striving for dramatic changes which change nothing of any importance.)

In the real world- as Stalin understood- the Russian Revolution did not last long before it had become nothing more (or less) than a national liberation movement for Russia and the Toilers of the East. (MN Roy is a forgotten giant in modern history.)

The end of the Soviet Union, messy and disgusting as it was and a real tragedy actually changed very little geo-politically except to throw people,obsessed with labels, off balance. Thirty years after it happened the same struggle, between the Euro-imperialists and their past and putative victims, under the leadership of the wariest population that Capitalism ever ran across- the Russian peasant people- goes on.
And go on it will until there is nothing left of the NATO/Israel world axis except sensible people seeking what we always have and always will, happy, communally rich lives among our families and everyone else's families restoring the earth to the awful beauty that we know instinctively from a hundred million years of breathing its air and drinking its waters.

It may take a while, but there are grown ups with teenage kids today who will see the new world and build it. In the meantime-willy nilly and surrounded by predatory oligarchs and Pobedonostsev's posthumous fan club- the ghost of the Red Army is doing God's work. Israel has reason to be nervous.

Posted by: bevin | Dec 5 2023 17:10 utc | 95

Peter [email protected] Ukraine is not Palestine. Ukrainians have not been put on the Reservation by Russia. Mass killed or attacked, harassed and assassinated for the past seventy years. The population that remains is aging, they will not support any guerrilla war, they will lean towards Russia every time.
The indoctrinated Ukrainians will die on the front, the smart, will leave, have left, are leaving.

Cheers M

sorry OT....I wonder if there are partisan clubs/pubs all over the Ukraine where patrons sit week in week out and sing rebel songs, just a good old fashioned everyone in the house, singing. Tales of glorious battles and deaths past. And here's the difference as I have just learned this past week.
The out pouring of love for a drunk rabel rousing lyrical genius that passed away last week has left me, amazed really. In Irish pubs, shit, pubs of all kinds world wide, the tributes paid, and still being sung and played this week, a Fairy Tale unto itself. Very touching. Digression, opps, so this past week I discovered that there are dozens of Pubs all over Ireland where they sing, lord can they sing, the old rebel songs of my youth, my parents youth, my grandparents youth, ingrained in our DNA. Will Ukrainian guerrillas have that level of community support?

Cheers

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Dec 5 2023 17:11 utc | 96

No.

The war in Ukraine is not done until it is done, done, and done, until, to give but one example, the perpetrators of the Odessa Massacre are strung up from lampposts.

Until then, keep driving on and do not let yourself be distracted, bought off or otherwise convinced to sell victory short. That is what led to Minsk and Minsk-2.

Posted by: Feral Finster | Dec 5 2023 17:14 utc | 97

So when do Milley and Austin hang?

Posted by: oracle | Dec 5 2023 17:15 utc | 98

I don’t know why this so darn difficult to understand. The West refuses to talk to Russia but they must in order to end the war. So, instead the West is negotiating through leaks to the press. They’ve been doing it since mid-summer. Russia for its part has been responding to their offers via Medvedev and Lavrov.

Posted by: Sally | Dec 5 2023 17:17 utc | 99

Unimperator @ 8:12

The Black Rock & Associated Predators and Parasites equation.

Ukraine includes some of the deepest and richest farmlands in the world. If the RU leaders have the correct input from agricultural experts who are not beholden to the concepts of chemical-warfare against the biozone; it will be imperative for Russia to extend itself to the point where any level of governance in Central Ukraine will need to declare and maintain that any agreements between those gargantuan corporations and the failing regime in Kiev would be negated and denied by a recovery government.

Cases in point: The Corn-Belt within the Ruptured Republic, most particularly in Iowa, Illinois, portions of Missouri, Nebraska, the Dakotas and southern Minnesota; have, with few exceptions, become biological deserts, where birds of most species, earthworms and micro-biotic organisms are becoming increasingly rare. One example which is near to my area of residence is the once fabulous Red River Valley of the North, along the N.D. and Mn. borderlands, has become essentially biologically inert. In that region, it is only extreme levels of chemical fertilizers in expanding quantities, along with herbicides, pesticides and every other agency besides...which keeps production going.

Worldwide food production is currently gasping for breath, due to over-utilization of chemical warfare upon the richest soils in the world. IMHO Russia has an ethical and moral duty to see to it that the incredibly fertile natural farmland in Ukraine is not given over to the corporate destroyers of nature's abundance.

Posted by: aristodemos | Dec 5 2023 17:18 utc | 100

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