Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
December 04, 2023

Right Before Hamas Attacked Someone Shorted Israeli Stocks And Funds

The Israeli Haaretz headlines:

Did Hamas Make Billions Betting Against Israeli Shares Before October 7 Massacre?
Giant gambles against Israel on the markets in Tel Aviv and Wall Street days before Hamas’ attack made billions. Somebody seems to have known about the plan in advance

The story is unfortunately pay-walled and I have yet to find an archive version of it. An archived version is now available.

We know that Batteridge's law of headlines says:

Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no.

It was thereby not Hamas which profited from unusual short positions but likely someone else.

The Haaretz story is based on a very recent study by two law professors with experience in market regulations from New York University and Columbia University.

A PDF file of the study, Trading on Terror?, is available at the Haaretz site.

Its abstract says:

Recent scholarship shows that informed traders increasingly disguise trades in economically linked securities such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Linking that work to longstanding literature on financial markets’ reactions to military conflict, we document a significant spike in short selling in the principal Israeli-company ETF days before the October 7 Hamas attack. The short selling that day far exceeded the short selling that occurred during numerous other periods of crisis, including the recession following the financial crisis, the 2014 Israel-Gaza war, and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Similarly, we identify increases in short selling before the attack in dozens of Israeli companies traded in Tel Aviv. For one Israeli company alone, 4.43 million new shares sold short over the September 14 to October 5 period yielded profits (or approximates avoided losses) of 3.2 billion NIS on that additional short selling. Although we see no aggregate increase in shorting of Israeli companies on U.S. exchanges, we do identify a sharp and unusual increase, just before the attacks, in trading in risky short-dated options on these companies expiring just after the attacks.

We identify similar patterns in the Israeli ETF at times when it was reported that Hamas was planning to execute a similar attack as in October. Our findings suggest that traders informed about the coming attacks profited from these tragic events, and consistent with prior literature we show that trading of this kind occurs in gaps in U.S. and international enforcement of legal prohibitions on informed trading. We contribute to the growing literature on trading related to geopolitical events and offer suggestions for policymakers concerned about profitable trading on the basis of information about coming military conflict.

3.2 billion New Israeli Shekel are about $800+ million. And, as I understand it, those only were the profits from a small part of the whole operation.

I am not qualified sufficiently to judge the study but the quoted sources and data seem reasonable.

EIS is an exchange-traded fund that tracks Israeli shares in New York. The spike in shorts volume of EIS was indeed hefty.


bigger

The short options were only for a very limited period. At least some would have expired on October 13.

So it definitely looks as if on Monday, October 2, someone was sure enough on that soon something 'bad' would happen to Israel. That someone had enough market knowledge and money to take the risk of a false alarm in exchange for a huge potential profit.

Who that person or group was is for anyone to guess.

Posted by b on December 4, 2023 at 15:42 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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Archive link is available now

https://archive.ph/YSiVs

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 4 2023 15:44 utc | 1

I thought the evidence was now pretty clear that the Israelis did know there would be an attack in advance, but chose to do nothing or misread the signs. Great opportunity for someone on the blue-and-white side to make a killing.

Posted by: laguerre | Dec 4 2023 15:49 utc | 2

Or the CIA and or Egyptian intelligence, both warned Israel of the attack

Posted by: John Neal Spangler | Dec 4 2023 15:56 utc | 3

The same happened just before 9/11.

Someone loaded up on put options on the two airlines used in the attack.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/503645?seq=2

Posted by: Paul Amery | Dec 4 2023 15:57 utc | 4

@LoveDonbas

Thanks. I have updated accordingly.

Posted by: b | Dec 4 2023 16:00 utc | 5

Who ever it was, was absolutely sure the attacks would happen. That discounts Arab and western intelligence. The obvious actor would be Hamas or someone 100% sure that Hamas would act. The balance of probability is Hamas. They have a huge funding operation spread across many many counties. A few well placed calls to friendly funders, pay back for all those years of support

Posted by: Gerard | Dec 4 2023 16:06 utc | 6

And like Putin's missile that was hitting the British papers and media within hours of MH17, the Israeli's had the Narrative ready to go. The killing of Israeli civilians by the Israeli military to ensure there was an 'atrocity', the 9/11 narrative as well.
Like I believed from early on, The zionist only have a short time to do what they want to do before American power that protects them collapses.
The Americans also using this to try and strengthen their grip on Persian Gulf oil and to attack BRICS and dedollarization.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 4 2023 16:12 utc | 7

Posted by: Gerard | Dec 4 2023 16:06 utc | 7

or Israel.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Dec 4 2023 16:13 utc | 8

I vote for CIA/Mossad. No, not at all surprised evidence of a shorting operation has surfaced.

Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 4 2023 16:18 utc | 9

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/hundreds-of-israeli-settlers-storm-al-aqsa-complex-on-5th-day-of-sukkot-holiday/3008427

Um. Sorry to burst the conspiracy theory bubble but the bet could equally have been for the horrific but well planned events of October 5 which seem to have fallen down some memory hole....

Posted by: pq | Dec 4 2023 16:20 utc | 10

Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 4 2023 16:18 utc | 10

I vote for CIA/Mossad. No, not at all surprised evidence of a shorting operation has surfaced.

With a 10%-of-profits bonus to the Hamas Fat Cats in Quatar, already very wealthy.

Posted by: Scorpion | Dec 4 2023 16:21 utc | 11

This is something I know next to nothing about, so I have a few questions.

First and foremost: what then/next?

I guess expiration dates on the shorts wouldn't matter at all after they were all bought "right away" on the 7th?

On the other hand if most of them expired on the 13th the people offering the shorts were a week away from losing their money?

The hostilities and economic ramifications did not stop when the conflict started so as for the Israeli economy (not whoever shorted it) how much of the profits or rather avoided losses have been yet again lost in the subsequent conflict? I would think all and likely more still.

I assume "the sellers of shorts" (ha-ha) are not the same as those still holding shares in the Israeli economy so yes someone unidentified would have profited (and they may well be zionists).

Is any of that correct?

How much does it cost to short this much? When and how?
How much work is it to do it without attracting a lot of unwanted attention? How many companies and distinct sellers would be involved?

Sorry for being lazy but I really don't feel like truly learning this stuff, I don't have money and I'm never going to use it.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Dec 4 2023 16:24 utc | 12

It was likely some Zionazi hedge finder with inside information who, like the IDF indiscriminately killing Israeli hostages, convinced himself that he could blame it on Hamas and thereby justified in his own mind coining money from the preplanned tragedy. Probably just couldn't resist the lure of the shekel.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Dec 4 2023 16:24 utc | 13

Shocking

Posted by: Turk 152 | Dec 4 2023 16:25 utc | 14

Before the 9/11 attacks - there was also a yuge spike in short interest on Wall Street. Justin Raninodo over at Antwar.com wrote a number of articles on the topic. I think there were even murmurings of a investigation by Congress but that quietly went away

Posted by: Exile | Dec 4 2023 16:26 utc | 15

I used to trade these sort of markets. But there are many reasons for buying puts, shorting the market. If, for example, you or a trading company are holding onto a plethora of Israeli stock . You have a risk if the market goes lower. So instead of selling some of that stock, lowering your risk, one instead buys out of the money puts (shorting) such that your are hedging your long bet.

Since the buy was October 2 that is just a day from the fiscal third quarter Sept. 31 end and many investors rebalance their portfolios in the beginning of the next quarter.

In the days leading up to 911 there were extreme short positions taken on American airplane companies; I don't think there was anything proven that the investors were 'tipped off'..

Anyways, if there was 'frontrunning' in either of the above calamities my money is that the beneficiaries were on the Empire side , not the Muslim side.

Posted by: canuck | Dec 4 2023 16:26 utc | 16

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 4 2023 16:12 utc | 8

"...before American power that protects them collapses."

The collapse of American power is a wishful thought that began a few years ago and seems to continue despite evidence to the contrary. The US stock market, for example, is quite high.

If you want a better barometer of the condition of the US, check the southern border of the country. When the flood of illegals stops, you'll know something bad is up. Those people are very smart.

Posted by: Johnny Dollar | Dec 4 2023 16:31 utc | 17

A lot of trades were placed on the TEL AVIV Stock Exchange.
This rules out that it was Hamas that placed these operations, as it would have required the cooperation of Israel's regulators.

Posted by: NotHunterBiden | Dec 4 2023 16:38 utc | 18

Posted by: Johnny Dollar | Dec 4 2023 16:31 utc | 18

If you want a better barometer of the condition of the US, check the southern border of the country. When the flood of illegals stops, you'll know something bad is up. Those people are very smart.

They also have help: https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/12/migrant-reveals-how-mexican-immigration-officials-operate-as/

A year ago I read reports about how many of them have debit cards into whose accounts $800 USD is deposited monthly. Of late more are coming from China and Arab nations than Latin America. This is a coordinated phenomenon not spontaneous happenstance.

Which begs the question: who is facilitating this and for what purpose?

A recent report from Germany in ZH recounts how about 70% of welfare payments are going to unemployed foreigners who have no intention of working.

Something's up....

Posted by: Scorpion | Dec 4 2023 16:40 utc | 19

Gerard
And if it was Hamas, the Israeli intelligence in its almightiness, did not smell anything?

Posted by: Minaa | Dec 4 2023 16:42 utc | 20

thanks b..

as others have pointed out - how had the advance knowledge and who was in a position to do something with it? but as in the 9-11 example, even though it was known to be true, the stock markets are set up for player protection.. the info will never come out...

egypt gave advance warning, so quite a few folks knew about this in advance, but as others have suggested, my bet is on the side of empire here..

Posted by: james | Dec 4 2023 16:45 utc | 21

Um. Sorry to burst the conspiracy theory bubble but the bet could equally have been for the horrific but well planned events of October 5 which seem to have fallen down some memory hole....

Posted by: pq | Dec 4 2023 16:20 utc | 11


That's what I was thinking too. Could have been a reaction to the storming of the Al-Aqsa mosque/Temple Mount by hundreds of Israeli settlers a couple of days before. A lot of Israeli soldiers were moved to Jerusalem and the West Bank to protect those settlers, so some investors might have guessed that Hamas might have seen that as an opportunity to attack southwest Israel. 7th October was also the fiftieth anniversary of the Yom Kippur war, so it was synmbolically good for the attack to appear associated with that war of resistance.

Posted by: Brendan | Dec 4 2023 16:48 utc | 22

Henceforth, “Follow the Money” is deemed a conspiracy theory.

Posted by: Turk 152 | Dec 4 2023 16:49 utc | 23

Market trades are perfectly transparent to the market makers. Otherwise they couldn't settle.

There is no mystery here except why the parties to the anomaly are being kept secret.

Posted by: too scents | Dec 4 2023 16:56 utc | 24

If you or I engaged in insider trading we would be caught very quickly and put behind bars. It’s not like these ‘mysterious traders’ are untraceable. It is simple that in a casino, the house sets the rules and always wins.

Posted by: Moses22 | Dec 4 2023 16:56 utc | 25

Short spikes are false flag alarms.

Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 4 2023 16:59 utc | 26


https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/israel-palestine-why-west-rally-around-last-settler-colony

Some excerpts

"On the second day of war between the Palestinian resistance and their Israeli colonisers, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered the American aircraft carrier USS Gerald R Ford, the most advanced in the US arsenal - along with its 5,000 Navy crew members - to sail to the Eastern Mediterranean in support of the Israeli settler-colonial and apartheid regime against the Palestinians.

Defending colonists
This would not be the first time that US or European ships were dispatched to protect colonists in Palestine. In 1854, a group of white American Protestant fanatics who were known as the "Dicksons" established the "American Mission Colony" in Jaffa. They were resisted by the indigenous Palestinians who attacked their colony in 1858, killing a number of them.

The US then dispatched a steam frigate, the USS Wabash, which flew its American flag to the shores of Palestine to demand that the Ottomans prosecute the killers. A similar action was taken two decades later by the Germans in defence of fanatical German Protestant colonists.
...
A few weeks ago, and in anticipation of its 50th anniversary, Israel released many of the remaining classified documents about its 1973 war with Egypt and Syria, who launched surprise invasions of the Israeli-occupied Sinai Peninsula and Golan Heights, respectively, to liberate them from Israeli control.

In response to Israeli requests for military support, the US carried out what had been the largest transfer of arms in its history. Henry Kissinger, the US secretary of state and national security advisor at the time, revealed the US government’s thinking in a recent interview with the Jerusalem Post. "We were determined, from the beginning, to prevent an Arab victory," he said. "We were absolutely convinced, from the very first second, that we would restore the status quo."

These efforts were scaffolded by a deeply racist, anti-Arab and pro-Israeli US media, which aggressively spread a narrative of Israeli victimhood that persists today. The propaganda had been that Egypt and Syria invaded Israel itself, when in fact they had invaded Egyptian and Syrian territories occupied by Israel since 1967.

Racialised sympathy
Given this successful precedent, the Americans are hoping they can repeat their performance in 1973.

As Israel is the last settler colony in Asia or Africa that continues to be ruled by racist laws and institutions, the West views its survival as Europe and the US's last stand in support of racism and settler-colonialism outside their borders and against the barbaric hordes of non-Europeans resisting colonial rule and determined to overthrow it.

Whereas possible direct western military intervention and participation in the war in support of Israel may prove rhetorical and for propaganda purposes, the racist sentiments behind them are quite real.

Interesting video by the same historian
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBwMLAATCBk
Zionism, Imperialism & Why the Arab Uprisings Failed - With Joseph Massad


Posted by: pq | Dec 4 2023 16:59 utc | 27

Easy peasy..the Israelis are notorious worldwide for their advanced spy software. Listening in on Hamas comms, they knew precisely when to go forward with put options, right down to the minute.

Posted by: nwwoods | Dec 4 2023 17:09 utc | 28

Easy peasy..the Israelis are notorious worldwide for their advanced spy software. Listening in on Hamas comms, they knew precisely when to go forward with put options, right down to the minute.

Posted by: nwwoods | Dec 4 2023 17:09 utc | 29

Does Hamas own a lot of Israeli stocks?

Posted by: Skiffer | Dec 4 2023 17:12 utc | 30

In the God Of Mammon world the only goal is profit and it matters not where it comes from.

The God Of Mammon cult has no allegiance to any except themselves and they will devour each other to that end.....who has the best set of derivatives is the real poker hand to hold these days......by their moral blindness thou shalt know them.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 4 2023 17:13 utc | 31

The term "Jewish Lightning" springs to mind, although it would be racist, obviously.

Another thought - these could possibly be perfectly innocuous trades that, because of the huge market swings, accidentally made monster profits, or possibly just covered monumental losses. It will all come out during the investigation and we will learn everything in due course.

(Poe's law may apply here)

Posted by: Occasional poster | Dec 4 2023 17:14 utc | 32

Two word answer: Dancing Israelis.

Posted by: Seer | Dec 4 2023 17:16 utc | 33

Paul Amery | Dec 4 2023 15:57 utc | 4
and others.

9/11**
One surprise was that the Federal reserve was among those "speculating" at that time. Which is why no enquiry went any deeper.
****

Not Hamas.
The people shorting (legally) will be known to Tel Aviv, where the majority of transactions were made. "Naked" short selling is different as the original holder of the stock will not know that His (or her) stock is being used in this way. The person or organisation concerned stays anonymous.

In the great crash of Lehman and Bear Sterns, massive short selling of both sorts was used. However, according to Taibbi even the other principal US Banks were involved, in order to eliminate one of their rivals. (Bear Sterns, but Lehman was said to be an accident)

Posted by: Stonebird | Dec 4 2023 17:18 utc | 34

Something's up....

Posted by: Scorpion | Dec 4 2023 16:40 utc | 20

Why yes, the empire is preparing for war and needs more cannon fodder.

I first heard James Corbett speak about this some while ago, linking it to the Banderastan-esque recruiting numbers reported by the US Army, and as documents show, Uncle Scam went forward and announced Undocumented Immigrants to be Allowed to Serve in the Military...

Posted by: ThirdWorldDude | Dec 4 2023 17:25 utc | 35

It's been debunked it seems - https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-huge-errors-in-us-study-about-tase-short-sellers-1001464098

Posted by: Kit Klarenberg | Dec 4 2023 17:32 utc | 36

Yes pq, my suspicions are similar. Short is on Oct 2nd, Oct 5th has 800+ settlers *with Israeli police support to provide security* enter Al Aqsa, Oct 7th is the response in Al Aqsa Deluge. Looks like a wire deliberately tripped, given the ongoing Israeli foreknowledge from 2022 through 2023 (from several parties now!) that Hamas has been training and building to something. Looks like an insider couldn't help themselves from making a little on the side and now has to be protected from being exposed publically... possibly again, a la 9/11?

As attributed to Mark Twain, "history doesn't repeat but it often rhymes."

Hamas sure took good measure of Israel's 'blind side' opening, playing the schemer with schemes within schemes for a fool with a direct hit, a well-managed military hostage raid that exposed the Hannibal Doctrine and Israeli Bloodlust Psychosis. Too clever by half, these stupid games of deception. Now it is all biting Israel's powers that be in the ass, the losses at their own hands exceed the imagined gains. Overconfident, Hubris. A foul scheme can be true, leaky from opportunists, as well as an ongoing failure.

Posted by: titmouse | Dec 4 2023 17:33 utc | 37

What about Qatar? Hamas leadership is there so not hard for Qatar to monitor what messages they are sending to the field commanders back in Gaza.
Qatar has plenty of money to make such large risky trades and unlike Hamas any Qatar money playing in various markets would not raise red flags.
If some big investor KNEW what was going to happen then they might also invest in oil futures, take bets against shipping insurance companies and buy calls on defence stocks. We’re there any such unusual trades?

Posted by: Neal | Dec 4 2023 17:34 utc | 38

Posted by: ThirdWorldDude | Dec 4 2023 17:25 utc | 36

Something's up....
Posted by: Scorpion | Dec 4 2023 16:40 utc | 20

Why yes, the empire is preparing for war and needs more cannon fodder.

I first heard James Corbett speak about this some while ago, linking it to the Banderastan-esque recruiting numbers reported by the US Army, and as documents show, Uncle Scam went forward and announced Undocumented Immigrants to be Allowed to Serve in the Military...

Agreed. But that's not the only benefit. Extra voters in swing state precincts. Millions more needing government benefits adding impetus to a more communist-socialist governance system not to mention the national debt which makes the banking cartels pennies on every dollar expended, i.e. trillions more. Hundreds of thousands of anti-white, or anti-Jews, or anti-Muslims, or anti-Deplorables or anti-Democrats available for demonstrations, riots, insurrection.

Posted by: Scorpion | Dec 4 2023 17:36 utc | 39

Um. Sorry to burst the conspiracy theory bubble but the bet could equally have been for the horrific but well planned events of October 5 which seem to have fallen down some memory hole....

Posted by: pq | Dec 4 2023 16:20 utc | 11
------------------------------------------------------------
Did the stock market drop significantly on October 5th and 6th? I don't know but pq brought it up, perhaps he/she could do the research and offer some facts to support his/her theory. I suspect that the market may have wobbled a bit, I do not think it dropped, or could have dropped, enough to risk a lot of funds on short sales: After all, no Jews were hurt during the event that I am aware of, it was a pro-Zionist and pro-settler staged event.

So pq, we are all waiting for your investigation into the October 5 / 6 Israeli stock market crash.

Posted by: Ed | Dec 4 2023 17:41 utc | 40

It's been debunked it seems - https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-huge-errors-in-us-study-about-tase-short-sellers-1001464098

TextPosted by: Kit Klarenberg | Dec 4 2023 17:32 utc | 37


Not debunked, just downplayed.
From your Globes link:

"The US study found that between September 14 and October 5, a short position was built amounting to 4.43 million shares in Bank Leumi. After the Hamas attack, those who built that position reaped profits of NIS 3.2 billion. However, because of the muddling up of shekels with agorot this was really only an estimated profit of NIS 32 million.

But "Globes" examination of TASE data does find that there was a consistent rise in short trading balances on Bank Leumi shares prior to the outbreak of the war. On July 26 there was NIS 285 million in short trade balances on Bank Leumi, which has climbed to NIS 407 million by the last week of September and NIS 422 million on October 5. By November 2, almost a month after the start of the war, the short trade balances on Leumi's share had fallen to NIS 371 million, and fell further to NIS 355 million on November 23. The rise in short positions ahead of the outbreak of the war and the fall after the start of the war, shed additional light on the matter."

Posted by: ThirdWorldDude | Dec 4 2023 17:59 utc | 41

Before the 9/11 attacks - there was also a yuge spike in short interest on Wall Street. Justin Raninodo over at Antwar.com wrote a number of articles on the topic. I think there were even murmurings of a investigation by Congress but that quietly went away

Posted by: Exile | Dec 4 2023 16:26 utc | 16

That tells you the answer. The government could give itself the power to find out who dunnit, but decided not to. So, in both cases it was someone that the government wanted to protect. That doesn't lead to the names of any individuals, but it does tell you what the score is.

Posted by: team10tim | Dec 4 2023 18:00 utc | 42

Thanks Kit Klarenberg for that article. Not debunked per se as much as reduced to a more personal scale of profiteering, from 3.2 billion (in Leumi shares) to 32 million. Still that is two decimal place shifts, so scale matters. That said it brings it down to a more normal scale for a complex plot having at least a few leaks and opportunists.

Amazing how people who pooh-pooh conspiracy theories expect perfection for it to go off. In reality you can have many warnings and curiosities occur, yet due to the standard of mental inertia people will steadfastly believe what info they first received instead of their "lying eyes." Further a plan can fumble before, during, and after and people will still expect it could not have been conspired because it did not go off perfectly.

Expecting perfection is the enemy of observation and common sense it seems. The world is filled with foolishness and errors continuously, and yet we shrug and march on. It is our mind that edits reality yet expects a higher threshold for our comfortable fictions. Reality repeatedly shows us how amazing it is because it is not limited to our confined expectations of imagination.

Posted by: titmouse | Dec 4 2023 18:04 utc | 43

Hamas got the "jew call" like 9/11?. Well let's just say I want hamas managing my portfolio. As they seem to be very good at reading markets

There's some hasbara on zero hedge spamming so e article about hamas raped all the men not just the women, in case the beheaded babies in incubators didn't trigger being offended.

Posted by: Hankster | Dec 4 2023 18:36 utc | 44

Less than a $billion?

That’s chicken feed for the big players.

Looks like greedy blood money by some who just couldn’t pass up the chance. They’ll be logged and traceable. Fish not whale.

Posted by: DunGroanin | Dec 4 2023 18:39 utc | 45

How much does it cost to short this much? When and how?
How much work is it to do it without attracting a lot of unwanted attention? How many companies and distinct sellers would be involved?

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Dec 4 2023 16:24 utc | 13

In a nutshell, a put is a contract in which the issuer (the "writer") offers for a limited time, to buy a specified number of units of a specified asset at a specified price per unit. For example, it might be to buy 100 shares of company XYZ common stock at $30/share, where the offer is good only through the end of a specified trading date. This implies that the holder (buyer) of a put has the right to sell the asset under those terms.

So, a situation where the buyer of a put can make a ton of money would be if the put were purchased when the market price was higher than the specified price ("strike price"), and the asset then quickly fell to below the strike price. For example, the put described above might be bought when XYZ is trading at $40/share (at which time the put has zero "intrinsic value"), and sold when XYZ is trading at $20/share (at which time the put has $10/share of intrinsic value, because you could buy the shares at the market price of $20/share and then "exercise" the option to sell them at $30/share).

This means that under ideal conditions, puts can provide a whole lot more bang for the buck than could selling and buying actual shares. But if XYZ never falls enough in price to increase the put's value, and you nonetheless continue holding the put through its expiration date, it becomes worthless.

As noted by several posters, if the trading volume of a particular option type ("series") exceeds levels that might be deemed normal, this might be detected by an entity such as FINRA (mentioned in the original post) and referred to appropriate authorities. This might suggest that the traders in question had inside connections, otherwise their high-volume trades might result in jeopardizing the event that they expect to move the stock.

[The above should not be construed as investment advice.]

Posted by: David Levin | Dec 4 2023 18:44 utc | 46

Something's up....

Posted by: Scorpion | Dec 4 2023 16:40 utc | 20

It's quite simple when you think about it. Why does the UK import Labour ? What with x unemployed, y inactive but want a job, and z part timers wanting full time work, why do we need any more?

It’s relatively straightforward. The British Labour market suffers from the ‘British disease’ — a vestige of Imperialism. We find it easier to steal resources from other countries than to create our own.

There is about 10% of the working population unutilised in the workforce one way or another. And that’s before we get onto people over 65, who are automatically excluded despite the state pension age creeping ever higher.

None of these match the vacancies on offer.They don’t match for several reasons:

a) The job role demands a skill set that is not available at the price offered.

b) The job is in the wrong geographical location from the people who could do it

c) The job has physical requirements that are not available at the price offered

So the process of filling a job goes something like this:

1. Business advertises for a person to work very long hours for a pittance, often somewhere ridiculous like London.

2. Nobody appropriate applies for it.

3. Business goes running to nanny shouting ‘skill shortage’ and demands visas.

4. Government gives in to business because businesses are treated like pets, not cattle.

5. The job is advertised abroad.

6. Foreign nations, exporting their people like cargo, welcome the visas and encourage people to leave rather than sort the social problems out at home.

So the elite class in both countries get what they want.The poor country gets rid of their peasants that are competing for what little resources there are and who may send some foreign currency back which the elites can appropriate through taxes, financial discounting or even occasionally producing goods for people.

The rich country gets cheap labour that will stack high in tenement blocks and work all hours for a lower wage. The elite cream off the surplus and socialise the losses onto the school system, the health system and the social services who then advertise for people to expand and find that there aren’t any skilled staff to work in those areas. The public sector then asks for visas, advertises abroad…

What you get, in effect, is the same process at a country level that we had initially in the industrial revolution at a city level. 1840's Manchester followed the same process, but with the surrounding rural areas rather than areas thousands of miles away in a different country. Birmingham, Glasgow and others followed the same process.

It will end up in the same way it always does — the rich living in gated wonderlands while the poor live in slums squashed in like sardines. Shanty towns are what happen when you allow market forces free rein. The UK had the first shanty towns, and the way it is run at the moment it will be the first shanty country.

It’s not just at the low level this process happens. Agriculture is notorious for it, but it also happens in IT. The larger firms put pressure on the government to let them import ‘skilled staff’ just as soon as the British workers develop any pricing power.

In reality they just want to pay less, and the prevailing economic orthodoxy uses a ‘reserve army of the unemployed’ to keep wages under control. In their belief system, inflation control has to be done on the labour side of the equation, never on the capital side. That why we have concepts like NAIRU, but never a NAIRC (non-accelerating inflation rate of competition).

When you look at a country with a different approach — Japan — you find, that even with a declining population and GDP relatively static overall, the GDP per capita is rising. That’s because they are automating and treating their elderly with respect. Fast food places are closing because they can’t get the staff. People get their cars washed by machines and their coffee from machines. All that drives forward productivity which then maintains and improves the standard of living — because they have to.

It’s not all perfect. The Japanese elite are gripped with neoliberalism like everywhere else. There is unnecessary unemployment and unhappiness. There are strong pushes for more ‘guest workers’. But the language, writing barrier and general culture stops them throwing open the doors. They have developed a different way for an island nation to bumble along relatively happily but with a net migration rate of about zero.

When you read any of the immigration literature put out by economists have a look and see if you can find Japan mentioned. You won’t find them in there — because it doesn’t fit the prevailing narrative.

So there is another way to improve standard of living rather than going around nicking resources from other nations. But it means treating business like cattle rather than pets. It means elites having to address local problems and innovate rather than sweeping them under the carpet.

But to do that you have to dump the neo-liberal economic attitude and the bizarre focus on people overseas ahead of people here who actually may vote for Conservatives.

Leaving the EU. We have been freed from the straitjacket. Asking for it to be put back on, because the new movement in your arms and legs is scary, looks a bit bonkers to anybody outside the echo chamber.

The growth strategy of the UK has been for many years “import cheap labour to keep the middle classes in their delusions of grandeur”. It’s actually called The British Growth Model. But we didn’t reject New Labour to have it replaced by Cheap Labour.

Our future must lie in improving productivity and increasing investment so that we can do more things with a stable population and a sustainable ecology. And a constraint on the labour supply is one of the ways that gets done. Employees should always be reassuringly expensive to force the capitalists to invest and innovate.

Our international strategy must be to encourage other nations to follow our lead in pushing productivity and increasing investment, and solve their unemployment problem at home rather than exporting it. That means that activity needs to move to where the people live.

Bizarrely we appear to be focussed upon national GDP figures and international people, when, in a nation, the focus should be the other way around — international growth figures and the local people who actually vote for you. It shouldn’t matter where the work gets done as long as it is more productive and less resource intensive than before.

But to do that you have to have an immigration system that works. Here’s a precis of one that will (but remember that the devil is in the detail):

An immigration system that excludes immigrants that wouldn’t otherwise get a work visa instantly removes all those people who come here and compete with the UK working-class sub-median wage earners. These were the people who voted in the largest numbers for Brexit. These people have paid the heaviest price for EU membership.

Reintroducing a work visa system that is on same lines as every other civilised advanced nation outside the EU, solves that problem.

Then only higher waged, higher skilled individuals come into the country from all over the world, but they compete with a different class of people in the UK and compete less because they are in areas with GENUINE skill shortages.

From the point of view of the UK sub-median wage earner, immigration has ended. So they are happy.

And importantly you need to send out higher skilled individuals from the UK to the rest of the world to balance those you take in. Otherwise you are stealing skills from other nations which they need to develop internally. That is a ‘beggar-thy-neighbour’ attitude and morally unacceptable. Immigration should be more of an informal exchange process than a capitalist ‘free market’.

This is a civilised solution that addresses all the concerns. Eminently reasonable and fair to all who believe in nations and borders. A win-win all round.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Dec 4 2023 18:46 utc | 47

'b' reported a study/story of great interest.
pq added valuable context as did canuck, who pointed out that the short orders were made at the beginning of a financial quarter. And then Kit Klarenberg kindly offered an explanation that will satisfy all but the addicted.

A perfect opportunity for those hasbara smears against Hamas's fat cats in Qatar, and the descendants of Ronald Reagan's Welfare Queens now living in Germany in royal fashion, to be withdrawn.

Hamas leaders are likely to be people who know what the inside of a brutal imperialist prison feels like, have spent time in dangerous work and live under protection because they are in constant danger of assassination.

Poor migrants crawling over the Mexican border aren't doing it for fun and their coming to the US is not coincidental: most of them are victims of imperialist aggression in one form or another, they arre like most first generation immigrants hard working, courageous and desperate. They deserve our respect.

And now a short prayer: "God Damn all fascists and enemies of the poor".

Posted by: bevin | Dec 4 2023 18:46 utc | 48

I am guessing it was Larry Silverstein, the same Jew who owned (and profited BIG TIME) from 9/11. I bet he and his buddies knew (or organized?!) the October 7 as well. Nothing like the great smell of money for this Golden Calf ethnic group!

Posted by: RockTime | Dec 4 2023 18:51 utc | 49

Bibi

Posted by: Stonedar | Dec 4 2023 19:09 utc | 50

b linked the actual study which it appears some have not bothered to read before trying to refute it.

"On both venues, we document an increase in short selling in several specific Israeli companies, although the aggregate effects vary depending on the venue.
We document a substantial overall increase in short interest in the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, which peaks just before the attack on October 7—an increase that was not present before the market decline following the enactment of the judicial reform on July 24, 2023."

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 4 2023 19:09 utc | 51

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Dec 4 2023 16:24 utc | 13

"Sorry for being lazy but I really don't feel like truly learning this stuff, I don't have money and I'm never going to use it."

I feel you there. As much as I'm notionally interested, and aware of the critical importance to the current global reality of all things fiscal, I feel it will be of little use to me personally. Thus, sadly, I tend to glaze over whenever I do try in earnest to have a crack at learning more about the subject.

I also feel that I'm bound to remain in the non-participant category when it comes to investment, as I doubt any brokerages would accept pocket change.

Posted by: Jon_in_AU | Dec 4 2023 19:11 utc | 52

" Batteridge's law of headlines says:

Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no."

The "law" is a piece of rhetoric, nothing more. Hamas leaders were as capable of using stock markets as anyone else.

Posted by: lester | Dec 4 2023 19:11 utc | 53

Respect to Hamas if this was them because it is an amazing way to maximize resources and returns.

That said, Islamic views on finance are not particularly amenable to speculation.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Dec 4 2023 19:18 utc | 54

Put on the skillet, put on the lid
Mossad gonna make a little short'nin' bread
That ain't alls Mossad gonna do
They's gonna make a little coffee, too

Hamas little baby loves short'nin', short'nin',
Hamas little baby loves short'nin' bread
Hamas little baby loves short'nin', short'nin'
Their little baby loves short'nin' bread

Posted by: Patroklos | Dec 4 2023 19:18 utc | 55

In the great crash Lehman and Bear Sterns, massive short selling of both sorts was used. However, according to Taibbi even the other principal US Banks were involved, in order to eliminate one of their rivals. (Bear Sterns, but Lehman was said to be an accident)

Posted by: Stonebird | Dec 4 2023 17:18 utc | 35

In 1998 Long Term Capital management went bust. The markets temporarily collapsed. Major Wall Street companies financed a bailout-$3.6 billion dollars-doesn't seem much today but it was big money then.

Two major companies which did not contribute to the bail out fund-Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers-so when the crash of 2008 came it was no coincidence that these two firms were hung out to dry.

After that crash the Fed no longer let the markets trade properly. Bond or equity markets. They saw the abyss and thought the best way to avoid it was to manipulate the markets (QE, Reo etc) both bond markets and equity markets.

What you see today are artificial markets both in the West and in China as well.

And any major financial crash is not a stock market crash-it always starts with the bond markets which are much, much larger.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management

Posted by: canuck | Dec 4 2023 19:34 utc | 56

Militant Rocket Hit Base Linked to Israeli Nuclear Missile Program
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/04/world/middleeast/militant-rocket-israel-oct-7.html

Posted by: Framarz | Dec 4 2023 19:42 utc | 57

"Poor migrants crawling over the Mexican border aren't doing it for fun and their coming to the US is not coincidental: most of them are victims of imperialist aggression in one form or another, they are like most first generation immigrants hard working, courageous and desperate. They deserve our respect."

And now a short prayer: "God Damn all fascists and enemies of the poor".

Posted by: bevin | Dec 4 2023 18:46 utc | 49

I'm with you on this one. The immigrants are doing it because the Imperialists -I call them the Anglo/Zionists but its a distinction without a difference-have ruined their countries by economic rapine, pillage justified only by might.

Of course these emigrants deserve our respect-I wish my Irish forefathers in 1850's would have got some respect when they came over. They didn't.

I'd rather write a Curse than a Prayer but you managed to do both.

Posted by: canuck | Dec 4 2023 19:50 utc | 58

That Ha'aretz introduces its article with such a brazen headline in the form of a yes-no question, implicating Hamas in apparent insider trading on stock exchanges in Tel Aviv and New York, should have set alarm bells ringing in our heads, after previous MoA posts on how mainstream news media outlets report news in ways that turn it into propaganda.

Ha'aretz is an ideal platform for conveying propaganda disguised as news to mislead because in the past it was a so-called "quality newspaper", kin to the other "quality media" papers and organisations like the BBC and The Guardian that we now know are no different from the News Corporation outlets in their support for Israel's 75-year genocide of the Palestinians.

That major Israeli banks' stocks were the target of insider trading suggests that someone or some organisation or consortium familiar with the current state of Israeli finances and economy must have been responsible. This may well point to someone or a group of people close to the Israeli government or the security apparatus. Could this be to discredit Netanyahu as a leader and to get rid of him from Israeli politics permanently?

Posted by: Refinnejenna | Dec 4 2023 19:56 utc | 59

Pearl Harbour and 9/11, in both cases, 2-3 thouseand US citisens have been sacrifised for having an excuse to go on war. A, Agains Japan. B, agains Middle East countries.
The Bibi government needed an excuse to expel the palestinian population out ofthe Gaza strip. That is the wanted result of the
entire show, we are witnessing now.
Again, it was during the first corona year , when Al Jazzera published, that the israeli foreign minister was visitin Quatar, i.o. to request , that the Qatari government should N O T freeze
financing Hamas.
In other words,Hamas was and is in the interest of the Zionazis.
They obviously have their agents in toppositions of Hamas .

What would be Israel ,if they could not claim , day after day, that the Arabs would drive them into the sea.? All foreign support for Israel would end.
And finaly,the biggest and best , technically most advanced secretservices in the world, CIA and Mossad,did not know about it ???? I wonder.

Posted by: Mercurysilver | Dec 4 2023 20:02 utc | 60

A amusing take on the 2007 Global Financial Crisis:

Quantitative Easing Explained
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PTUY16CkS-k&pp=ygUMcWUgZXhwbGFpbmVk

Posted by: Exile | Dec 4 2023 20:02 utc | 61

“So it definitely looks as if on Monday, October 2, someone was sure enough on that something 'bad' would soon happen to Israel…

Yes, the Instigator of the Settlers March on Al Asqa of October 5 betting on a follow up reaction.

Thomas

Posted by: Thomas | Dec 4 2023 20:11 utc | 62

Gotta be smart & corrupt former Boston Consulting Group employee Benjamin Netanyahu himself. Or his wife. Or his son. Or one of his in-laws.

Posted by: Christophe Douté | Dec 4 2023 20:17 utc | 63

Excuse my total ignorance on investment issues, but aren't such transactions traceable - somehow? Is it not possible to find which entity/entities directed them?

Posted by: Lathe Biosas | Dec 4 2023 20:42 utc | 64

ALL wars are bankers wars so WHY would anyone be surprised if the Israelis market was shorted. Hopefully Hamas had the smarts to do it. The entire US Congress is involved in insider trading ALL the time 😯. It's not just Biden and his criminal sicko son grifting off their positions. How else would the Sub par members of Congress and governments get Rich. Even the billionaire Trump grifted. There's no doubt in my mind that every time the US is about to start a War those in the know Go long on the defense stocks. Grift makes the US Go round!

Posted by: Bob | Dec 4 2023 20:45 utc | 65

the most annoying thing of that archived article that donbass so gratefully shared is how the title mentions hamas and leaves out israel or israels friends in it all...money has no loyalty to any country.. usually haaretz is more neutral, but not in this example..

Posted by: james | Dec 4 2023 20:51 utc | 66

btw - craig murray is doing a lot of great work and coverage on the wider topic of palestine-israel.. worth checking out..

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/

Posted by: james | Dec 4 2023 20:52 utc | 67

Qatar would short on the Tel Aviv exchange which would lead Mossad directly to them? Until we see copious Qatari corpses in full regalia, I will assume it wasnt Qatar.

Posted by: Turk 152 | Dec 4 2023 20:53 utc | 68

So pq, we are all waiting for your investigation into the October 5 / 6 Israeli stock market crash.

Posted by: Ed | Dec 4 2023 17:41 utc | 41

Here you are. The answer is in the paper that b has linked.

TLDR Trust the media to sensationalize a dumb research paper that literally shows that traders were clearly speculating on the political risk in Israel throughout 2023 which has been a violent year right from the start in West Bank / EJ along with the protests against Netanyahu. They examine three products:

A. MSCI Israel ETF (NYSE: EIS):
The average duration of short positions was sharply increasing in the weeks before Oct 7.
Short selling peak Oct 2, settlement Oct 4.

“On October 2, 2023, we observe two dark pool transactions reported to FINRA at 2:46:43pm and
3:21:11pm, for 50,733 and 174,869 shares respectively, at share prices of $54.46 and $54.61,
respectively. These appear to be the short sales identified previously”

The dark pools means that some INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS (types like Goldman Sachs) had their algos picking up on the political events: Sukkot started Nov 29 from Oct 6 and major storming of Al Aqsa started every day from Oct 2.

A placebo test over 52 weeks also showed there were higher periods of short selling in Jan 2023 (proposal of judicial reform) and April 2023 (huge protests for and against reforms, shelling from Lebanon).

B. Israeli Public Companies Traded in Tel Aviv: Figure 10 shows that average short interest increased consistently from August until the Sukkot holidays. This means that traders were expecting huge political turmoil with Netanyahu.

C. Israeli Public Companies Traded on U.S. Exchanges: Short-Dated Options: They cherry pick October 13 as the first expiration date after Oct 7 and find some difference before and after Oct 13. But when they run a placebo using expiration date as Oct 6 they find the same effect.

This research has cherry picked a few data points and made a sexy story but they have not excluded the dates around Oct 7. And when they have done placebo tests for other dates, the same effects have been observed which means there is nothing special about Oct 7. It’s ludicrous to think that while Hamas is planning a top secret event they’re sitting around deciding which options to buy and which TASE stocks or ETF to short sell…..

(to explain away the April 2023 short selling the suddenly claim that the Hamas attacks were planned for Passover 2023 and Israeli intelligence knew and Hamas knew Israel knew therefore they cancelled it.....

Posted by: pq | Dec 4 2023 20:59 utc | 69

@Posted by: laguerre | Dec 4 2023 15:49 utc | 2

I thought the evidence was now pretty clear that the Israelis did know there would be an attack in advance,
but chose to do nothing or misread the signs.

Izzies: "Yeah, we knew about the attack plan. We thoroughly vetted it and shared it with MI6 and the CIA.
Then we all agreed that it was the best opportunity for a security-failure false flag since that tactic worked
so well in 2006 giving us the pretext to invade Lebanon. Might even work as well as September 11th. One thing we
couldn't agree upon, though, was how to explain it away, as:
'Gaza is among the, if not the, most heavily surveilled strips of land on Earth, both from the air (satellite and drone surveillance) and via Mossad spooks on the ground.' 'The Israeli government controls all of Gaza’s borders in a total siege-style blockade. Nothing goes in or out without the state’s blessing.'
'Months, if not years of planning went into the operation, including erecting a mock Israeli town inside of Gaza to use for practice. Israeli intelligence literally watched these training sessions from outposts on the border.'

After months of dickering we decided that a meager shrug of the shoulder is all that it takes to explain it to a willing public - 'Shrug, we thought it was
too big a plan for them.' Want to see me shrug again?

---
used some quotes from:
https://www.armageddonprose.com/vindicated-israeli-intelligence-knew-october-7-attack-plan-a-year-in-advance/

Posted by: librul | Dec 4 2023 21:16 utc | 70

Lathe Biosas | Dec 4 2023 20:42 utc | 65


Excuse my total ignorance on investment issues, but aren't such transactions traceable - somehow? Is it not possible to find which entity/entities directed them?

Video tapes covering Jeffrey Epstein's incarceration went missing. Video of 10/7 missing (claimed to be held until after the war). 9/11 videos hidden. JFK. MLK. Shredded documents. One could go on an on. When it's convenient the powerful can make all traces disappear.

Posted by: Seer | Dec 4 2023 21:17 utc | 71

Suddenly, MOA commenters are serious financial analysts that critique a market research paper by 2 leading NYU and Georgetown Law profs who undoubtedly had peerc reviews by the finance departments. If anyone has academic finance credentials, please state them.

Posted by: Turk 152 | Dec 4 2023 21:19 utc | 72

@Posted by: Seer | Dec 4 2023 21:17 utc | 72

Yes, "one could go on and on".

Here are a couple:
"The disappearance of videotapes of witness interviews conducted by the Democratic-led House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack has alarmed the chairman of the House panel that replaced it."

The CIA torture tapes were erased. No one cared except the ACLU which brought a lawsuit.
Just before the CIA and ACLU were heading for summary judgement the CIA conducted their
phony Navy Seals capture oops, kill Bin Laden with thoroughly vital help from information gathered
through torture.


Posted by: librul | Dec 4 2023 21:32 utc | 73

"...The CIA torture tapes were erased..." librul@74
Unless I am mistaken the woman responsible for erasing the tapes is now head of the Agency, a position which, surely, requires Congressional approval. Which means that the names of those in Congress who approve of the illegal action of erasing a documentary record must be known and available for members of the electorate.

Posted by: bevin | Dec 4 2023 21:45 utc | 74

Turk 152 | Dec 4 2023 21:19 utc | 73
You clearly have no understanding of democracy which implies the duty of all citizens to evaluate critically information bearing upon political matters.
In case you didn't know people with Academic credentials often deny the truth for ulterior reasons. And they are also prone to making mistakes.
All that matters is that commenters act in good faith which includes thinking before they make judgements.
If we followed your suggestions we would dispense with democracy and submit to the rule of a committee of University Vice Chancellors, Deans and Department heads- a collective that would undoubtedly begin its rule by closing down sites like this one.

Posted by: bevin | Dec 4 2023 21:52 utc | 75

@Posted by: bevin | Dec 4 2023 21:45 utc | 75

I read the transcripts from the summary judgement (think I downloaded them, but am not finding them after a quick look).

I couldn't believe what I was reading. The ACLU must have been using a first year law student.
The CIA was arguing that underlings had erased the tapes without the knowledge of the upper hierarchy,
and so the CIA could not be held responsible...Say What?
I saw no serious challenge to this nonsense from the ACLU and the judge appeared to be satisfied and let the CIA
off the hook. The judge did sanction the CIA and make them cover the ACLU's cost. The judge also thanked the
ACLU for bringing the matter before the court (the CIA had been ordered by the court to preserve the tapes),
but the judge let the CIA walk. I think the judge's concluding words were something like: "We need our spies".

The judgement was held while the airwaves and internet were filled with millions upon millions of lines of praise for those that had "got Bin Laden".
The court was likely prejudiced.

Posted by: librul | Dec 4 2023 21:58 utc | 76

bevin - your analysis on Ukraine and Russia is outstanding and I never questioned a word of it. But, this is the middle east, muslims, and now finance. As someone with all of those backrounds, my suggestion is that you, arch, pq, be a little more humble; there is a lot of mansplaining on these boards. I am certain that you have the grace and charm for it and I thank you for your many, many contributions and insights.

Posted by: Turk 152 | Dec 4 2023 22:04 utc | 77

Suddenly, MOA commenters are serious financial analysts that critique a market research paper by 2 leading NYU and Georgetown Law profs who undoubtedly had peerc reviews by the finance departments. If anyone has academic finance credentials, please state them.

Posted by: Turk 152 | Dec 4 2023 21:19 utc | 73

In case your comment is directed at me since I've written the most detail on what is in the paper: before you ask for "credentials" why don't you use your own judgment and critical thinking skills to compare what I've written to what is in the paper and see if my critique holds up?

One of the biggest problems we face today is that people look at someone who is "Establishment Approved" with a bunch of titles and credentials and think: there is no chance they are not full of crap.

One of the worst kept secrets of academic research is that 99% of it is written only for grants, tenure and publicity and 95% of it is utter crap.

The number one reason why the paper makes no sense at all is that they look at one big ETF, short selling of stock of "dozens of companies" as well as AVERAGE open interest in short dated options in Israeli companies on US exchanges.

So they are looking at AVERAGES across a whole range of products and companies and finding a slight correlation with Oct 7 but also with other dates like Oct 6 and January and April 2023.

The implication is that the "insiders" who knew Hamas would attack randomly invested across the ENTIRE Israeli stock exchange as well as lots of options on Israeli companies in US exchange.

LMFAO

The problem is that journalists are so dumb, they cut and paste soundbites from the press releases that universities put out without ever reading the papers.

Posted by: pq | Dec 4 2023 22:04 utc | 78

"I'm shocked...shocked to learn that there's gambling going on in this establishment!"

Posted by: Copeland | Dec 4 2023 22:06 utc | 79

And now a short prayer: "God Damn all fascists and enemies of the poor".

Posted by: bevin | Dec 4 2023 18:46 utc | 49

Amen to every word!

Posted by: Andy | Dec 4 2023 22:40 utc | 80

Unless I am mistaken the woman responsible for erasing the tapes is now head of the Agency, a position which, surely, requires Congressional approval. Which means that the names of those in Congress who approve of the illegal action of erasing a documentary record must be known and available for members of the electorate.

Posted by: bevin | Dec 4 2023 21:45 utc | 75

____

Former director, actually, stepping down one day before Genocide Joe was inaugurated. But otherwise you’re correct in all particulars.

Posted by: malenkov | Dec 4 2023 22:51 utc | 81

And now a short prayer: "God Damn all fascists and enemies of the poor".

Posted by: bevin | Dec 4 2023 18:46 utc | 49
--------------------------------------------------------------

Amen brother bevin!

Posted by: Ed | Dec 4 2023 22:56 utc | 82

Posted by: pq | Dec 4 2023 22:04 utc | 79

Hi pq, you have a good analysis, it contradicted what I believed, so my head exploded; time for a break.

Cheers,

d

Posted by: Turk 152 | Dec 4 2023 23:49 utc | 83

Qatar knew about the Hamas attack. They are the ones who funded it...

Posted by: Virgile | Dec 4 2023 23:54 utc | 84

@ 59 canuck

The problem with open borders is that tptb wish the native populations to be scrambled. The elite seek chaos because they do not want a unified public aware of how perpetal intervensionism in FP allows for perpetual chaos of open borders.

The emigrants you speak of are then a cudgel being used by the elite to sow the chaos that leads to disunity, chaos, and strife and allows tptb to go pillaging about while the native population is bewildered. It is a self-licking ice cream cone. A natural in a country has every right to demand a secure border and I would argue that our FP would be very different had we remained isolationist.

Many here do agree with and do not bat an eye when China forces its Muslims into political reeducation.

In the west currently, this is a tactic of world communists to scramble internal cohesion meanwhile calling everyone who is legitimately dismayed at the floundering social fabric a "fascist" as many here do.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Dec 4 2023 23:59 utc | 85

Posted by: bevin | Dec 4 2023 18:46 utc | 49

Poor migrants crawling over the Mexican border aren't doing it for fun and their coming to the US is not coincidental: most of them are victims of imperialist aggression in one form or another, they arre like most first generation immigrants hard working, courageous and desperate. They deserve our respect.

And now a short prayer: "God Damn all fascists and enemies of the poor".


HA HA HA HA HA!!

I finally got it! Apologies for being so slow.

bevin is a communist-programmed AI bot!

Posted by: Scorpion | Dec 5 2023 0:20 utc | 86

A. A placebo test over 52 weeks also showed there were higher periods of short selling in Jan 2023 (proposal of judicial reform) and April 2023 (huge protests for and against reforms, shelling from Lebanon).

C. Israeli Public Companies Traded on U.S. Exchanges: Short-Dated Options: They cherry pick October 13 as the first expiration date after Oct 7 and find some difference before and after Oct 13. But when they run a placebo using expiration date as Oct 6 they find the same effect.

C. Israeli Public Companies Traded on U.S. Exchanges: Short-Dated Options: They cherry pick October 13 as the first expiration date after Oct 7 and find some difference before and after Oct 13. But when they run a placebo using expiration date as Oct 6 they find the same effect.

[But we are not talking about October 7th, we are talking about October 5th. and 6th. when the shorts were sold.] Ed.

This research has cherry picked a few data points and made a sexy story, but they have not excluded the dates around Oct 7. And when they have done placebo tests [?]] for other dates, the same effects have been observed which means there is nothing special about Oct 7. It’s ludicrous to think that while Hamas is planning a top secret event, they’re sitting around deciding which options to buy and which TASE stocks or ETF to short sell…..

(to explain away the April 2023 short selling, they suddenly claim that the Hamas attacks were planned for Passover 2023 and Israeli intelligence knew, and Hamas knew, Israel knew, therefore they cancelled it.....

Posted by: pq | Dec 4 2023 20:59 utc | 70
---------------------------------------------------------------
https://archive.ph/YSiVs

"Jackson and the team found strong indications that, in early October, somebody in U.S. stock market circles anticipated catastrophe in Israel, leading stocks to crash.

"On October 2, that somebody or somebodies carried out an enormous volume of short transactions on the EIS – meaning they bet against Israel."

"In fact, the volume of short transactions on October 2 was so huge – 227,000 units, compared with a few thousand on any given day – that it didn’t seem like a gamble. Whoever was behind the transactions apparently harbored confidence that disaster would strike Israel"

I know very little about the stock market, as most working people like me have less opportunity to engage outside of our 401k's, but you apparently do know, and understand, the system. How fortunate for "b" that you have been trolling around MoA for a few days and were able to correct "b" and Haaretz about how a Placebo test proved everything in wonderland is OK.

And you did it so quickly, as if it was right there at your fingertips. For me it is just a bit too convenient that you were here to save us from those clowns at Haaretz who "cherry picked a few data points and made a sexy story."

Now, you may have mentioned that you are, or were, a stockbroker somewhere in your comments, but I don't recall it, but I do know your previous comments did seem to apologetic for the neo-fascist Zionist side of this current conflict between Gaza and Israel. If I am wrong, I stand corrected. But it is easy to talk bullshit to people who do not speak your professional language, and if you don't really speak that language, then your handlers probably do.

Now David Levine at #47 is a chess player and clearly someone who has a good understanding of the stock markets, as he explained in a nutshell what a PUT contract is. Thank God he was here at this moment and time, because many of us, including myself, are a little weak on how the stock market terminology.

Posted by: Ed | Dec 5 2023 0:21 utc | 87

Right. So there is zero evidence. Merely vague "appearances" and unfounded biased "conjecture" based on wild imaginations. Let's argue about it for days and weeks then. Ought to be helpful. Not!

Posted by: Lavrov's Dog | Dec 5 2023 0:27 utc | 88

Posted by: Turk 152 | Dec 4 2023 23:49 utc | 84
----------------------------------------------------------------

Turk, you concede too quickly, pq is talking trash over your head, and you shouldn't cow too quickly.

Posted by: Ed | Dec 5 2023 0:28 utc | 89

Yet another "mowing the lawn" and "dancing Israelis" it seams to me.

Approaching a century:
Decades upon decades of massacres, piping sewers into Palestinian drinking wells, dragging women giving birth out into the sun to sunburn the newborn, forced stripping of women and children whenever the gunmen fancies, and rapes.

It is important to notice that there exist some individual Israelis that attempt to reduce some of the atrocities. Among them few groups of Israeli mothers that say that where (and when) they are present the prevalence is reduced. Honor is upon them.

Some Israeli media have exposed lies like the 40 beheaded babies (by age grouping the 7.okt deaths), and the absurd lies like the merkava tank damage and helicopter gunship damages to houses pretended to be by Hamas. Western media less so.


The Al-Aqsa flood specific timeline:
5 apr. Al-Aqsa attacked exactly 6 months before the (2-)5 oct. The Israelis selected whom they let into the mosque and then they beat people up.

2.oct. Possibly some* people made money at/before the 2-5 oct. attack on the Al-Aqsa mosque and the 7.okt response. This would be before the response.

2-5.oct. Al-Aqsa attacked again.

7.oct. Hamas response named Al-Aqsa flood.

And then the Israeli claims about unprovoked attack by Hamas, 40 beheaded babies, is flushed into homes and heads by the mass media.

*The probability that the Israeli stock exchange would protect Hamas speculants is "kind of low".
*The probability that Hamas would leak their plans by speculating on the Israeli stock exchange is "kind of low" too.

Posted by: Northman | Dec 5 2023 0:39 utc | 90

Metaphorically, I suspect that the vast majority of the West Asian population are shorting the State of Israel in the medium term; eschatological you know!

Posted by: Don Firineach | Dec 5 2023 0:42 utc | 91

This story is now mainstream media. Of course it's framed as hamas is evil and needs fully eradicating as they finance themselves on terrorism.
Only sky news has a headline that's ambitious. Which is strange for Murdoch who is a director of genie energy stealing Palestine golan gas oil, maybe he doesn't want to point the finger in case the wind changes on this story,

https://news.sky.com/story/traders-were-told-of-hamas-attack-on-israel-in-advance-and-profited-from-tragic-events-researchers-claim-13022985

Posted by: Hankster | Dec 5 2023 0:47 utc | 92

That's ambiguous. Damm auto correct on a new device

Posted by: Hankster | Dec 5 2023 0:48 utc | 93

Tail wags hundreds of dogs who point their paws at the 'obvious' guilty party. Arrests are imminent. LOL

Works every time.

A rhetorical question: What am I?

- showing a lack of experience, wisdom, or judgement
Example: the rather naive young man had been totally misled

- easily persuaded to believe something; credulous
Example: an attempt to persuade a gullible public to spend their money

- having or showing too great a readiness to believe things
Example: a ceremony staged for credulous tourists

But but but it was reported in the western MSM newspapers, it can't be a lie or false propaganda being distributed --- we MUST work this out now. We MUST know what really happened, why and who done it!!!

While we introduce garbage to the 'conversation/website' then proceed to endlessly attack each other personally as we forget and ignore THE ISSUE is the thieving lying Jewish Zionist Colonialism, the murderous Occupation and Genocide of the Palestinian People FFS !

(Oh dear me)

Posted by: Lavrov's Dog | Dec 5 2023 0:49 utc | 94

Hi pq, you have a good analysis, it contradicted what I believed, so my head exploded; time for a break.

Cheers,

d

Posted by: Turk 152 | Dec 4 2023 23:49 utc | 84
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If pq explains why there is no genocide by the IDF in Israel, but only by Hamas, will that contradict what you believe and explode you head?

Posted by: Ed | Dec 5 2023 0:54 utc | 95

Many people imagine Haaretz is a reliable media outlet by zionist standards. And yet in 2016 when headchopee held East Aleppo was about to be liberated, this same Haaretz reported "Assad had captured West Aleppo earlier".

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Dec 5 2023 1:03 utc | 96

The Cradle now has a posting up about the subject

https://new.thecradle.co/articles/stock-market-bets-suggest-foreknowledge-of-7-october-attack

Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 5 2023 1:03 utc | 97

Posted by: Turk 152 | Dec 4 2023 23:49 utc | 84
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Turk, you concede too quickly, pq is talking trash over your head, and you shouldn't cow too quickly.

Posted by: Ed | Dec 5 2023 0:28 utc | 90

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pq

The number one reason why the paper makes no sense at all is that they look at one big ETF, short selling of stock of "dozens of companies" as well as AVERAGE open interest in short dated options in Israeli companies on US exchanges.

So they are looking at AVERAGES across a whole range of products and companies and finding a slight correlation with Oct 7 but also with other dates like Oct 6 and January and April 2023.

The implication is that the "insiders" who knew Hamas would attack randomly invested across the ENTIRE Israeli stock exchange as well as lots of options on Israeli companies in US exchange.

....

It’s ludicrous to think that while Hamas is planning a top secret event, they’re sitting around deciding which options to buy and which TASE stocks or ETF to short sell…..

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It implies that insiders were dumb money, (i.e. Military Contractors, Generals) who did not access Smart Money active investor resources that would direct their investment picks towards directed companies (perhaps because it was a secret operation), so they invested in the entire Israel market through a passive ETF assuming that a loss would be captured (which is exactly what happened). Or that Hamas was in fact not sitting around, so they invested in an entire market, which I am less likely to believe.

There is no way multiple ivy league law professors with strong ties to the finance department, phd staff are going to screw up regression analysis and decimals on a paper that gets published in Haertz so it appears that pq doth protest too much. If pq is real, he would need to be a former hedge fund analyst that focuses on geopolitical arbitrage strategies living in London, New York or Boston with information access to synthesize that quickly. Other investment manager types, couldnt keep up with conversations on geopoltics on moa. But, I doubt those guys have much time to hang out at moa, so most likely he is being fed the information.

Posted by: Turk 152 | Dec 5 2023 1:20 utc | 98

Same ones as 9/11... same ones who made billions off the covid scam

Posted by: Goldhoarder | Dec 5 2023 1:26 utc | 99

That’s Alec B. still holding the smoking gun.

That is a the LGM of stock blips.

Posted by: ICPtasking | Dec 5 2023 1:29 utc | 100

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