Ukraine's Demographics Dictate To End The Fight
The knives are out in the fight over the Ukrainian throne.
Various Ukrainian media (in Russian) report of plans to fire this or that general. Andrei Yermak, Zelenski's chief of office and the real power behind him, is currently in the U.S., allegedly to get the okay for firing the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army General Zaluzny. Other Ukrainian media are calling for Zaluzny to become the new president. Tomorrow CIA director Burns is expected to be in Kiev to tell Zelenski that his time is up and that he, Zelenski, will have to go.
Simplicius writes:
It appears obvious that two competing factions are trying to outdo each other in the sphere of Western media. Zaluzhny fired his shot in the unsanctioned Economist piece, and it would seem that Zelensky backers are doing their own parallel counter-work.
Larry Johnson reminds of the larger powers who are behind this fight:
One critical point I failed to make in yesterday’s article regarding the competing narratives regarding Zelensky and General Zalushny — it looks like the Brits are backing Zalushny while the CIA is trying to save Zelensky and dump Zalushny. I base that conclusion on the fact that the Economist, a British publication with close ties to MI-6, gave Zalushny the celebrity treatment, while the Washington Post, the go-to rag for the CIA, blamed Zalushny for Nord Stream.
Fun to watch, unless you are on the frontline.
There, things are getting worse for the Ukrainian army day by day.
The Ukraine wasted so many troops for impossible endeavors, to hold Bakhmut and in its the senseless 'counter-attack' against impregnable Russian lines, that it now lacks the troops to hold its defense lines.
Six weeks ago the former British defense minister Ben Wallace urged the Ukrainian government to draft more young people to fill the lines:
The average age of the soldiers at the front is over 40. I understand President Zelensky’s desire to preserve the young for the future, but the fact is that Russia is mobilising the whole country by stealth. Putin knows a pause will hand him time to build a new army. So just as Britain did in 1939 and 1941, perhaps it is time to reassess the scale of Ukraine’s mobilisation.
In a recent interview with the Ukrainian Pravda the Economist writer Shashank Joshi took a similar line:
Q: Are there resources to escalate trainings of Ukrainian soldiers abroad?A: I would say that one of the biggest challenges, really, right now is, first of all, being able to mobilise more young Ukrainians, which, as you know, is a challenge, and a political issue and a social issue.
The ignorance displayed in those British statements becomes evident when one takes a look at the Demographics of Ukraine:
bigger
When the Soviet Union dissolved in the late 1980s the economy of Ukraine went into a tailspin. People were suddenly very poor with no jobs available for them. They thus refrained from having children. Others fled when the war started and some of the young men were killed in the war.
While there are now some three hundred thousand Ukrainian men at the age of 40 there are less than a hundred thousand men at the age of 25.
As there are so few men and women of that reproductive age there are also only few new babies. Becoming independent was a social-demographic catastrophe for Ukraine that will haunt the country for the next hundred years.
The Ukrainian army can not draft younger soldiers because younger people are simply not there. The few thousand who are still hanging out in Kiev are actually university students who's knowledge and service will be needed over the next decades. To draft them would kill all positive perspectives the Ukraine still might have.
After the Ukrainian government, on order of the U.S., failed to make peace with Russia, the Russian president Vladimir Putin ordered his troops to 'de-militarize and de-nazify' the Ukraine. It then was obvious that the attrition of the Ukrainian army, not taking its land, was the main Russian plan.
The Ukrainian political and military command failed to correctly adopt to that. Instead of going into defense mode behind holdable lines it ordered its troops to attack Russian defense lines again and again. In consequence Russian losses were minimal while the Ukrainian losses exceeded all imaginations.
That this would end badly was quite predictable.
It is over. The Ukraine, and the powers behind it, have lost the war.
The Russian forces are now doing probing attacks along the whole frontline. Whenever a local Ukrainian local defense line will fail, which is just a question of time, they will break through and cover new grounds. Those drops leaking through will become a stream, then a river and a flood that will push the Ukrainian army into a full retreat.
The government of Ukraine, and its backers, can still prevent that.
But it requires to acknowledge the facts on the ground.
Calling for more younger Ukrainian people to be drafted to die is the opposite of doing that.
Posted by b on November 14, 2023 at 10:15 UTC | Permalink
next page »“We will fight to the last { }.”
Why is it that when anybody else says this it is an obvious encouragement of genocide; but when we say the same it is a patriotic Huzzah?
Posted by: Butte Bill | Nov 14 2023 10:30 utc | 2
That demographics picture looks very wrong. It originates from Ukraine via Wikipedia, and is based on 41 million people.
No way there are 41 million Ukrainians in Ukraine. If there are still are 20 million, that would be an accomplishment.
Posted by: marcel | Nov 14 2023 10:32 utc | 3
All I want to know is when they trundle Tony Blair in to negotiate peace with the Russians on behalf of the Ukrainians ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 14 2023 10:33 utc | 4
My rough estimate of Population currently within Kiev controled territory
Starting point 34 million as of 2014
Less
5 million fled to Europe 2014-21
5 million fled to Europe 2022-23
3 million fled to Russia 2014-21
3 million fled to Russia 2022-23
7 million living in DPR, LPR, Crimea
————————
11 million
Posted by: Exile | Nov 14 2023 11:02 utc | 5
IMHO, this will continue until the fall of “Berlin”. Most of the “Party” faithful will try to escape, but I don’t believe “Argentina” and “Brazil” will take them.
BTW, since “Berlin” is now de-centralized, and has boroughs all around the globe, it will take the “Red Army” quite some time until “Den Pobjedy”. Meanwhile, we denizens of the “Reich” just need to listen to “Dr. Goebbels” hold forth on the “Rundfunk”, and believe in “End Sieg”.
One thing I know for sure: This time, no “Albert Speer” will save the people from “Hitler’s” “Nero Order”.
Learn self-sufficiency on whatever land you posses. May God Bless You in the coming tribulation. 🙏
Posted by: OldFart | Nov 14 2023 11:06 utc | 6
Posted by: Exile | Nov 14 2023 11:02 utc | 5
How do you come up with 34 million in 2014? Another number I heard of was 45 million in 2014.
Posted by: NoName | Nov 14 2023 11:42 utc | 7
I believe there are very few draft age men left in Ukraine. Not really in Ukrainian circles here in the US, but I know personally of 2 young men and their families, in my city who escaped Ukraine, one having to go through Russia to get to the US. This is probably the case in many US and European cities, not to mention Russia. I was in Odessa in 2012 and even then a lot of young locals wanted out of Ukraine. There literally is no one left there to fight on.
Posted by: Chicago Bob | Nov 14 2023 11:50 utc | 9
It is difficult to see why the Americans would have any interest in allowing Zaluzhny to get the boot.
If I were Biden (Please, God, no!), I would want a prestigious figure that can sell to the country the humiliation that is coming to it, allowing me to wrap this up fast-ish and move on (to do damage somewhere else).
Giving Zaluzhny the boot means that the US would make it more difficult to replace Mr Cocaine. Arestovich isn't there with Zaluzhny, actually he is nowhere near as far as traction on the populace is concerned.
My take: Yermak's mission will fail, and Mr Burn's mission will fail, too, at least for now.
Cocaine Guy isn't ready to go, and it would not be easy to extract him alive even if he wanted. His own naysee people will take care he ends up like Qaddafi.
Posted by: Augusto Pi | Nov 14 2023 11:52 utc | 10
My rough estimate of Population currently within Kiev controled territory
Starting point 34 million as of 2014
Less
5 million fled to Europe 2014-21
5 million fled to Europe 2022-23
3 million fled to Russia 2014-21
3 million fled to Russia 2022-23
7 million living in DPR, LPR, Crimea
————————
11 million
Posted by: Exile | Nov 14 2023 11:02 utc | 5
in the worst years, 90's , ukraine lost 3 million
From 2001's census 48 million to 2014 let's say they lost another 3
So 2014 =45 million
even with your exits there would be 22 million.
But exit to the west is likely 8 million and 10 million to russia or russian held territories. That would give the 32 million some say are currently in kiev ukraine.
So no less than 22, no more than 32, certainly not 11
Just to prove a point, if it was 11 million they would have had to draft university students just to have the troops they have used. Furthermore they could not have spared a significant portion of the population from any casualties in family and friends.
20-30 I think very few outside those in certain positions know any better.
Posted by: newbie | Nov 14 2023 11:52 utc | 11
Ukrainian demographics dictate that the fight must continue on the part of Russia in the most resolute fashion to finish the job. The struggle is not just on a military level, but also on a political one, where the Russian government is prone to blunders. It would be beneficial for those Ukrainians who are out of the freak show and cannot be press-ganged by the Ukro-Gestapo as it would free the country of the horrific Maidan regime.
Of course, the horror is for those still to be drafted or already on the front and the citizenry still in the country. But the defeat of the Anglo-American empire in Ukraine and the obliteration of the local fascist comprador regime are tasks of paramount importance. It would be best for said citizens to aid in hastening this desired goal, although, apart from fascist loyalists, no few appear resigned to a grim fate.
Obviously, b understands this, but it is understandably prudent for the image of the blog to promote a "peace right now" message. It is humane and no one can accuse such a messenger of extreme partisanship or cruelty.
Posted by: Constantine | Nov 14 2023 11:52 utc | 12
Obviously, b understands this, but it is understandably prudent for the image of the blog to promote a "peace right now" message. It is humane and no one can accuse such a messenger of extreme partisanship or cruelty.
Posted by: Constantine | Nov 14 2023 11:52 utc | 12
Cruelty? there is plenty but on the other side, when the peace talks in march 2022 were torpedoed I, and many others, said "The US will fight the russians to the last ukranian..." it was a bad taste (but true) "joke" then, it is a tragedy now.
As for partisanship, I would say the biggest one you can find here are those that take badly to the way nato is dead set on starting WWIII in ukraine or elsewhere. We had other plans and the end of the world would spoil most of them.
Posted by: newbie | Nov 14 2023 12:01 utc | 13
That demographics pyramid looks ready to detach from the x-axis completely. The signs of impending doom for the Ukraine are coming from all angles. Even the most stubborn NAFO trolls will soon have to admit there is no future for the nation of their beloved Nazis.
Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 14 2023 12:07 utc | 14
That demographics pyramid looks ready to detach from the x-axis completely. The signs of impending doom for the Ukraine are coming from all angles. Even the most stubborn NAFO trolls will soon have to admit there is no future for the nation of their beloved Nazis.Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 14 2023 12:07 utc | 14
Well, with patriots and women like these...
OUCH: Ukrainian influencer tells Ukrainian women not to worry that many men died. They can marry Europeans and Americans!Problem solved …
https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1723382422715183443
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 14 2023 12:19 utc | 15
Everywhere I am reading that Ukraine's army is soon to collapse, but I can't see that. They still have enough troops on all frontlines to even conduct more or less offensive operations and the average Ukrainian soldier still seems to be willing to fight. I do understand that huge offensive operations are impossible for both sides in this kind of war,but when, if at all, is this collapse going to happen?
Posted by: Ernesto | Nov 14 2023 12:23 utc | 16
Wait, what?
Are you telling me that military-aged men in universities are still being exempted from military service even as Ukraine conscripts old men, amputees, and women???
War is a class project. We know that. But never have I seem it so blatantly expressed as this. I wonder how quickly public support for the war would collapse if the future professional managerial class currently living the college life were asked to put their own bodies on the line.
Posted by: GuardYourHumanity | Nov 14 2023 12:41 utc | 17
Ukraine is a democracy, and its democratically elected leaders have chosen to ruin it. If that is the case, then the people should share their fate with the country.
Posted by: CIROC | Nov 14 2023 12:41 utc | 18
This is pathetic deck chair rearranging for the purpose of continued delusion of us Collective Wasters. In our unsinkable Titanic, delusional Rules Based Fascist Garden.
The changes in the British Government are obviously a recognition that their decades of plans have failed, AGAIN.
The proxy nazi/banderite army has been destroyed , only the final generation of tweenies raised like Hitler youth remain. All they know is fairytales and racist songs and playing at soldiers. The first loud bang, the first blood, the first reality will send them crying for their banderite sieg heiling mothers, these fat lipped, bottle blonde whores who bought into the lies of their being pure blooded mothers expecting some kept princess lives. ‘elensky cannot remain as Hitler couldn’t and neither can the invisible General , has he even been on live tv with a real journalist and audience? Or can any of the other faces of Banderism.
They will remain in history only as icons like Hitler and Bandera are and the massive graveyards built as some future monuments to build fairytales around for another attempt. Because those People are Implacable and proudly so !
The borderlands will be repopulated by Russians, Asians, Africans, within a hundred years. The fertile land productive again - by anyone except the one people who have been trying to get it for 700 years - the Shapeshifting Khazars.
That is why our British government is being rearranged (the European yes men and women will follow soon), all involved with the calamity will be shuffled off stage. Sunak only remains for his value in trying to keep Modi’s India on side In the wider futile war of the death of the unipolar imperium. As soon as that also fails, which it will, because the States which make up India will not follow Modi or his Gujarat hindutvas and that will lead to the dissolution of that made up country to its ancient regional nations. Possibly a civil war scenario.
The Imperial Nazis never expected the Ukrops and their mercenary natzios to actually invade Russia - the plan was to destroy Russia by economic warfare. To separate it from the global south and Asia Pacific. To break it up with fifth columnists and Color agitation.
That has failed spectacularly and the repeated sanctions turned upto rock and roll absurd full volume 11 have failed too. With massive blowback. The US credit card absurdly maxed out needing an absurd amount of extra money printing to pay anyone holding any Treasuries. Totally devaluing the foreign countries holding them as reserve currency.
All the European economies and all the others enrolled in that posse are destroyed , the collective west turned to waste. Only the bankers hang on by their fingernails. Beating and murdering the Palestinians in their last hope of remaining in some strategic geography.
The Russian economy instead of being in ‘taters’ is booming and will carry on doing so spectacularly, just like the postwar US economy did - having made all the gains while Europe was the one living on po-taters for decades after.
The sacrifice of the nearly 30 million Soviets has not been allowed to be in vain.
The centuries long exploited non European World has coalesced - except for some captured satraps. The Japanese, the long subdued subcontinentals, some African and The Five Eyes and the Imaginary country in the Levant.
That is the truth of history which can no longer be concealed any more after a thousand years.
Posted by: DunGroanin | Nov 14 2023 12:54 utc | 19
The demographic graph is not showing the half a million plus men killed. It is too symmetrical unless an equal number of women have died or left the country.
Also, why are there more older women than men? This can’t be explained by the war as this age group is too old for combat.
I think it would be too difficult to conduct a consensual during a hot war. Anyway Ukraine has been hiding its casualties.
Posted by: Moses22 | Nov 14 2023 13:25 utc | 20
> Also, why are there more older women than men? This can’t be explained by the war as this age group is too old for combat.
Alcoholism, dangerous jobs, men just die earlier.
Posted by: SIsisi | Nov 14 2023 13:26 utc | 21
@Constantine | 12
This is a cruel take but I think sadly the correct one. It's not just that an immediate peace outcome might be disadvantageous for Russia / the Global South, if the same fanatics in Ukraine and their backers are somehow allowed to reconstitute themselves. It might be better to wait until the country actually collapses or some military coup makes Restukraine into Belarus version 2.
Also while this conflict continues Western financial systems are under duress, as is the western political order, as is the military might our transatlantic elites can project. I doubt that such an effective upring in the Middle East would have been possible 2 years ago. As long as we all don't die in nuclear fireballs of WW3 keeping the pressure going is doing wonders for the demise of our own cruel political system in the West.
The collapse of the imperial order cannot come soon enough.
Posted by: Roland | Nov 14 2023 13:28 utc | 22
Posted by: newbie | Nov 14 2023 12:01 utc | 13
Obviously, you didn't read my otherwise short post. Humanitarianism and cruelty are in the optics and optics appear to be the reason for b's very understandandable advocation for peace. There should be no compromise with the Maidanist regime or any NATO outfit at all in what used to be Ukraine in 2014.
Posted by: Constantine | Nov 14 2023 13:28 utc | 23
Yes. Urine is caught between hammer and anvil.
The anvil is the depletion of forces that are attritted any time they try to do anything offensive.
The hammer is the mobilization of the only reserve left - male uni students. Their mobilization will most likely collapse the country in a new Maidan, and the ukropigs know it.
Thing is, the AFUcks cannot get stronger demographically as time goes on - only weaker. There is no magic pill to make their army more numerous or more infused with tech, so the entropy is inevitable. As the war goes on, people also continue to trickle out of the country - not just because of the hunt for men, but generally because of the economic situation and grim prospects.
That demographics pyramid looks ready to detach from the x-axis completely. The signs of impending doom for the Ukraine are coming from all angles. Even the most stubborn NAFO trolls will soon have to admit there is no future for the nation of their beloved Nazis.
Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 14 2023 12:07 utc | 14
Well, with patriots and women like these...
OUCH: Ukrainian influencer tells Ukrainian women not to worry that many men died. They can marry Europeans and Americans!
Problem solved …
https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1723382422715183443
Dumb ass Ukrainians fighting for nothing but to be an anglo vassal. They all fought for nothing now there women will give em the reward they deserve. Abandonment. Hope it was worth morons!
Posted by: Jklp1976 | Nov 14 2023 13:34 utc | 25
Posted by: DunGroanin | Nov 14 2023 12:54 utc | 19
Agreed on much except the part about "shapeshifting Khazars". Not only it is historically bollocks (most of the east European Jews come from local stock of converts, mainly Germanic and Slavic), but it would be very beneficial if Jewish immigrants with skills, ability and the will to improve things moved in to help develop the land.
Obviously, those of anti-Zionist persuasion, like the Israelis who have been moving in Germany for some time, would be the best candidates, but some others could do as well. After all, Zionism was instilled in most of them and co-existing with so many other communities in a common struggle to build a common future would help them shed the racist grip of that detestable ideology.
Once again, the prevalence of Zionism in the Anglosphere isn't a product of some mythical Jewish domination, but of the blatant reflection of Anglo-American supremacism and imperialism in that ideology. That's why the first duty of all Zionists in the Anglosphere is to promote the primacy of the Homo Angloamericanus with its attendant imperialist justification and then add Zionism as a complementary addition.
Posted by: Constantine | Nov 14 2023 13:42 utc | 26
"The average age of the soldiers at the front is over 40. I understand President Zelensky’s desire to preserve the young for the future, but the fact is that Russia is mobilising the whole country by stealth. Putin knows a pause will hand him time to build a new army. So just as Britain did in 1939 and 1941, perhaps it is time to reassess the scale of Ukraine’s mobilisation."
There is so much disinformation and anal extraction in Ben Wallace's piece it's hard to know where to start unpacking it. How do you mobilize Russia by stealth? WTF? Is it all the volunteers that made it stealthy? And just who should reassess the scale of 404's mobilization? Certainly not 404. And Zelensky is preserving the young for the future? What future? As Roland 22 said, "The collapse of the imperial order cannot come soon enough." Amen.
Posted by: Mike R | Nov 14 2023 13:48 utc | 27
Who would have thought that
"They will fight to the last man"
Was the most accurate propaganda meme out of all this debacle
Lol
Posted by: Comandante | Nov 14 2023 13:51 utc | 28
Posted by: Roland | Nov 14 2023 13:28 utc | 22
Agree Roland. The US empire is bleeding out. Russia was the first to know, then China, now the global majority, Europe is sensing it. Americans will be the last to realize it and live it, starting with the peons, eventually working up to the elites.
Russia, China, Iran, are in synch: death by 1000 cuts, go slow. Hezbollah is on board.
Posted by: migueljose | Nov 14 2023 13:57 utc | 29
A world year book gave the population of Ukraine at independence in 1991 at 52 million.
Destruction of the economy and society followed. Non stop looting of the economy by Kolomoisky and his ilk. De industrialisation, mass unemployment, poverty, destitution, hopelessness. Alcohol, drugs, prostitution, organised crime and corrupt political gangsterism. Collapse of the health system. Plummeting life expectancy, rising infant mortality. Deaths from illnesses like TB rocketing.
By 2010, the population had fallen to 38 million, with a further 7.5 million working abroad, scratching a living picking cabbages in Poland, or working as the ubiquitous "Natasha" prostitutes.
This was pre Maidan and prewar. Average income per head was put at $2,000. This was mid way between Egypt ($2,200) and Syria ($1,800.) Ukraine was already a failed state and the poorest country in Europe.
Following Maidan, Ukraine lost Crimea and the Donbas, 2.5 million and 5 million.
Since 2022, it has also lost 2 further oblast regions adjoining the Black Sea, with their populations. Ukraine military fatalities in the war have been credibly estimated at 300-400,000. Millions have fled as refugees, to the EU and Russia. Different figures have been given, but 8 million is a conservative estimate.
The population currently controlled by the Kiev regime is under 20 million. The best estimate I have seen is 18 million, but it could be lower.
Posted by: anon | Nov 14 2023 14:02 utc | 30
Posted by: Jklp1976 | Nov 14 2023 13:34 utc | 25
I strongly disagree with the premise of your post that somehow the Ukrainians, most of whom are very similar to the people of Russia, especially the Slavic element, are exceptionally idiotic. The attraction of western soft power for folks who have been subjected to horrific social degradation since the 90s is to be found throughout eastern Europe and the former USSR.
One can attend to the mental damage that the Russiand themselves suffered in the post-Soviet era. Leaving aside the liberal trash, we can find so many folks in Russia eager to become accepted by the westerners and that includes many of the so-called conservatives. The attraction of a culturally liberal lifestyle and severe inferiority complexes caused that. It didn't help that the Soviet leadership, unlike the current Chinese one, was unable to distinguish between a certain level of affluence and unfettered consumerism ("capitalist degeneracy").
As it happens, it took years of abuse, then the entire 2022 of visceral neo-Hitlerite propaganda for many Russians, the liberal-lite folks who support the ruling party, on the part of the collective west to disabuse those champs of their delusions. And if that was the case for Russia, one can imagine the difficulty of the Ukrainians to oppose the propaganda onslaught of the west and its compradores.
This has been the case for the entire eastern European region, even beyond. Witness how the Finns, whose resolute neutrality throughout the Cold War offered only benefits to them, abandoned that and charged headlong into an imperialist alliance, harming grievously their national interests simply because they adopted the mentality of the superior western liberal. And this is Finland we're talking about, a prosperous country and nation that had no reason to go full lickspittle of the globalist Anglo-American empire. Yet here we are.
So it's unjust to treat most of the Ukrainians as braindead idiots who casually opted for national suicide. Liberal propaganda gave them false hope for a better future and it was backed by brutal fascist goons who dealt summarily with those who opposed this lunacy.
Posted by: Constantine | Nov 14 2023 14:07 utc | 31
Unless we are talking about "firing squad" -type dismissal,
what difference would it make to Zelensky or Zaluzny or whoever, if they are forced to step-down? It would be early retirement to a life of leisure, me thinks.
The greater importance of the step (which is almost inevitable) given circumstances is that
it will maintain Ukraine's lack of direction ensure that it is reliably in control of the puppet masters - empire of chaos. If this did not happen, there might be formation of organic intelligence and organization in Ukraine where it might develop a sense of self-interest and objectives and schemes of it's own - with consequences.
This is 2nd step on path to Fail State - the first being the original coup. If the west can't have it, no body will.
Posted by: jared | Nov 14 2023 14:23 utc | 32
DunGroanin 19
Maybe empire plan A , breaking Russia financially, failed spectacularly because of Putin's personal connection with the Rissian Jewish community.
And the blowback from that is felt in Palestine rather than Russia, because those Jewish millionaires could still pull the plug on Russian finances , shoukd Putin swing a Kinzal at Israel for genociding Palestinians.
Actions have consequences. When the economy is squeezed , the worst pinch hits the poorest.
Having said that, the Muslim world can come to understand that it can noonger shelter under the wing of USUKIS or Russia / China. It will have to stand on its own 2 feet in order to eradicate the Zionist Antichrist.
USUKIS political success in re-establishing far right politics, is balanced by its dramatic loss of face in the center of RoW over Ukraine and Gaza. Islam's loss of reliance on self- interested superpowers means they will have to trust in Allah.
This is the sure-footed path to success. USUKIS can keep its Woke Fertility Goddesses and Viking piracy and shove them into their over-heated, AI, digital plant rooms with little flashing green and red LED eyes.
Posted by: Giyane | Nov 14 2023 14:26 utc | 33
Posted by: Constantine | Nov 14 2023 14:07 utc
The fact that eastern Europeans can't see through propaganda and lies is revealing. Than again, they opted to join the 4th reich in brussels and showed their true colors during covid and through their censorship means they are unthinking vassals, past present and future. Joined up to fight so their children can worship the rainbow flag and get rid of their currency to join the other authoritarian shits in brussels, dc and london. Guess they would be susceptible to idiotic propaganda and lies at baseline. All for the glory of nothingness.
Posted by: Jklp1976 | Nov 14 2023 14:29 utc | 34
@ GuardYourHumanity | Nov 14 2023 12:41 utc | 17
It’s not just a class matter. The Ukronazis have deliberately chosen their unwanted minorities — ethnic Russians and Hungarians — to be cannon fodder while the nice “Aryan” boys of Lvov get to sit in cafes.
That, of course, is beginning to change. Pity. :-)
Posted by: malenkov | Nov 14 2023 14:30 utc | 35
Posted by: Constantine | Nov 14 2023 14:07 utc | 31
Well said.
I think we are near the inflection point on how the actual treatment of Ukrainians are in Europe. Today we hear news Ireland is no longer giving any "special" benefits to Ukrainian refugees, which will surely become a common theme throughout EU controlled part of Europe. The simple underlying reason is Ukraine nor Ukrainians are no longer useful for the empire.
However, it is very likely that it will take a long time to Ukrainians to "get it" that they are just disposable tools. It will take a running decade of struggling to "get it" but it is one possibility that they will become another Chechnya. It's most likely that some sort of military government will need to be established for years with the sole purpose of disposing nazis.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 14 2023 14:34 utc | 36
However, it is very likely that it will take a long time to Ukrainians to "get it" that they are just disposable tools. It will take a running decade of struggling to "get it" but it is one possibility that they will become another Chechnya. It's most likely that some sort of military government will need to be established for years with the sole purpose of disposing nazis.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 14 2023 14:34 utc | 36
Just so. The best way for the Ukrainians to "get it" is through a decisive military defeat, ruthless eradication of the Ukro-Nazi regime and any vestiges of western influence, while the country is simultaneously rebuilt. This was the experiance of Chechenya and it could partially serve as a guideline.
On the other hand, Putin's nonsensical comments about "de-communization" that would find every western anti-Russian and every neo-Nazi in agreement, should be consigned to the dustbin of failed quotes. The adoption of the Ukrainian language/dialect should be taken seriously and double language about fraternal nations who are at the same time hohols must be discarded. If the Belarussian identity can be part of the greater Russian world, so can the Ukrainian. The Soviet moument in Pereyaslavl should be restored along with everything brought down by the Ukro-Nazis.
This would be in agreement with the suggestion by "DunGroanin" about people immigrating to improve the land. In my opinion, the retarded effort by some Russians to present themselves as US American ultra-conservatives with Russian characteristics has been a spectacular failure and deprived Russia of much support from those who honor the anti-colonial struggle. It would have been, for example, most beneficial to have large numbers of Latin American volunteers to fight against NATO, use the experience for their homelands or even settle in the region after the war. I, for one, had expected an invitation to Cuban doctors during the conflict, at the very least seving the locals in the new oblasts (especially Donbass).
Posted by: Constantine | Nov 14 2023 14:54 utc | 37
A suitable Epitaph for this war or any war for that matter should be
while empires may be conquered on horseback, they could not be ruled on horseback.--Yelu Chucai
Posted by: chris m | Nov 14 2023 14:58 utc | 38
Thanks b, for your work. From even before the beginning of the SMO, your voice and this blog have been an important place for information and discussion. Kudos!
Posted by: gottlieb | Nov 14 2023 15:10 utc | 39
"The Russian forces are now doing probing attacks along the whole frontline. Whenever a local Ukrainian local defense line will fail, which is just a question of time, they will break through and cover new grounds. Those drops leaking through will become a stream, then a river and a flood that will push the Ukrainian army into a full retreat."
The Russians have had the wherewithal to push the Ukrainian army into a full retreat back in 2022 already, just they are not exercising that option. Instead all the Russians are doing is shadowboxing, with some jabs every now and then, lots of fancy footwork, plus some stinging rights on occasion just to keep the opposition awake. All Russia is trying to do is make the opposition (the West) see that they (the West) are not only totally outclassed, but are in the wrong weight division as well. Russia is a heavy weight but America is not. So the West had best retreat to the pre-1990's NATO lines. Even when the Ukrainian army falls apart due to lack of manpower and weaponry it remains to be seen how much of Ukraine will be occupied by Russia. Hopefully Saint Putin is not going to be too merciful with the opposition.
Posted by: gT | Nov 14 2023 15:11 utc | 40
Posted by: Exile | Nov 14 2023 11:02 utc | 5My rough estimate of Population currently within Kiev controled territory
Starting point 34 million as of 2014
Less
5 million fled to Europe 2014-21
5 million fled to Europe 2022-23
3 million fled to Russia 2014-21
3 million fled to Russia 2022-23
7 million living in DPR, LPR, Crimea
————————
11 million
If you can determine the number of the 'fled' who did so from DPR-LPR-Crimea (probably most went into Russia), meaning a comparison of 2014 populations there with current, then you could come up with a better number. But looks like it would top out at around 15,000,000.
I have felt for some time that the Hidden Hand purpose of the SMO has been depopulation. (What better way to achieve demilitarization and denazification? Or, according to some, what better way to prepare the land for the Israelis to retreat back into the old Pale where more of them come from culturally than the Arab and Persian Levant.)
Still a ways to go but the final push might be like post-war Germany - about 13,000,000 forced to leave their ancestral territories, mainly on foot. In this case, Galicia and Poland might suddenly find their numbers swelling in a matter of weeks.
Hmm... wonder how long it will take for Russian flags to be flying over Odessa and Kiev? Is there a betting pool on that?
@Ernesto #16
War isn't just about people with guns.
You need food, fuel, ammunition, weapons platforms.
Ukraine is probably fine on food but the rest of the above list is highly suspect.
Posted by: c1ue | Nov 14 2023 15:25 utc | 43
Liberal propaganda gave them false hope for a better future and it was backed by brutal fascist goons who dealt summarily with those who opposed this lunacy.
Constantine | Nov 14 2023 14:07 utc | 31
If you replace 'liberal' with 'capitalist', it becomes more accurate imho. Apart from that, fully agree.
Shows how fascist movements are the 'natural allies' of capital interests - always.
What I don't quite understand:
The disintegration of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact was more than 30 years ago. In most eastern European countries, people have since realized that (neo)liberal capitalism isn't the 'promised land' of milk and honey (except for a small elite) - leading to a (dangerous) surge of nationalism.
Why the different path in Ukraine?
Was Yanukovich already the 'nationalist' equivalent of PiS/ Orban/ Fico?
Posted by: smuks | Nov 14 2023 15:25 utc | 44
It's over in the sense that Russia can block Ukraine's maximalist goals regardless of how crap NATO sends over and how much sacrifice the UA population makes.
In fact, both Russia and UA seem to modulate their effort after the casualty rates rise to roughly what we had since the summer.
Meanwhile, in addition to several 100k/year lost on the battlefield, UA also still loses tens of thousands of per month to emigration. Last I checked, by EU estimates, this flow is more than the monthly birth rate. The emigrations are usually not working men, due to the cost of the bribes. Children accompanied and their mothers are I believe the majority, per EU migration statistics. This too hits the bottom of the population pyramid. It's an unkind form of demilitarization... for which UA can thank its NATO sponsors who spoon fed the Bandera crew for years.
Posted by: pxx | Nov 14 2023 15:26 utc | 45
@GuardYourHumanity #17
As you correctly implied - university students are almost certainly predominantly the children of the wealthiest Ukrainians.
That's why the exemption is still there.
It worked for the US with Vietnam, no? /sarc
Posted by: c1ue | Nov 14 2023 15:26 utc | 46
@Moses22 #22
Ukraine suffered in the '90s as much as Russia did - the demographic change reflects that particularly with men dying far faster/more frequently than women.
Plus don't forget there has been both massive migration - which tends to be male even if conscription wasn't a factor, which it is - and also significant fighting even before the SMO.
The demo data is also certainly from years ago before the SMO started. I first saw this from Martyanov I think, not sure where he got it from.
Posted by: c1ue | Nov 14 2023 15:29 utc | 47
@42 Scorpion
I think that maybe double-counting much of the LPR/DPR/Crimea population. Somewhere a bit south of 20MM sounds about right.
Note that's still far too many people to have to fight forever if they were united and motivated. Hence the "soft" aspects of the conflict.
Posted by: pxx | Nov 14 2023 15:31 utc | 48
@Constantine #31
I strongly disagree with the premise of your post that somehow the Ukrainians, most of whom are very similar to the people of Russia, especially the Slavic element, are exceptionally idiotic.
It is hard to explain Ukrainian inability to pierce agitprop otherwise.
Russians are extremely discerning when it comes to Russian propaganda - why are Ukrainians apparently not?
Posted by: c1ue | Nov 14 2023 15:32 utc | 49
Posted by: ASensibleMan | Nov 14 2023 14:56 utc | 38
Ja, ja, now go sieg-heil with your co-ideologues in "Keeev". There you can meet other muppets who are certain only Jews are interested in looting. Definitely, the most misnamed poster in this blog.
Posted by: smuks | Nov 14 2023 15:25 utc | 45
The point I made about liberal propaganda was to place the emphasis on the cultural themes that would entice the Ukrainian citizenry to support in significant numbers a disastrous break with the Soviet past and embrace Ukraine's colonization by the west. Yanukovych was a capitalist too, but he was an opportunist looking after his interests. The Maidanists, a term going well beyond pro-western oligarchs, went all in to transform the country into an utterly abject vassal of western corporations and NATO.
Posted by: Constantine | Nov 14 2023 15:37 utc | 50
Ernesto@16
Ukraine is still fielding a reasonably competent fighting force, however it no longer has sufficient reserves needed for rotation and replacement of losses. This is why the conscription of women has been put forward as a solution. Women have outnumbered men in Ukraine since independence and women are the last large untapped pool of potential recruits.
Regarding demographics the place to start is the last nationwide census done in 2001. From it you can get a good idea of the demographics post independence. It is possible to come up with reasonable numbers for emmigration, population decline from low birth rate, population in lost territories, flight to Europe and Russia (remembering that many of the 5 million who fled to Russia came from the Russian controlled territory) since the start of the conflict, losses in the SMO, etc. To figure the available pool you need to calculate the draft age men minus losses to date and accounting for disabled and exempt people. Then remember that many are required to keep the country functional outside of the military requirements. It's a bleak picture becoming bleaker as the conflict drags on.
Posted by: the pessimist | Nov 14 2023 15:39 utc | 51
is this collapse going to happen?Posted by: Ernesto | Nov 14 2023 12:23 utc | 16
I have been reading and hearing people claiming the UAF was near collapse for over a year and a half and that didn't happen. Ukraine is not in the same kind of situation as Germany and Japan were at the end of WW-II, as they were isolated and with no external support. Ukraine is a proxy paid and directed by the US to create chaos in ghe region to damage the process of Asian integration.
The US is not out. It is just buying time until they find their next trick. The Western elites have no issues sending Ukrainian pregnant women on the front line as it happened a couple of days ago. Those elites live in an abstract world covered with a carpet full of euphemisms and they live fery far away anyway. They behave in a similar fashion toward the Palestinians.
It is not a simple matter for Russia to be at war by proxy with an ennemy like the US that hides and deceives and has an unlimited bag of deadly toys.
Posted by: Richard L | Nov 14 2023 15:47 utc | 52
Posted by: the pessimist | Nov 14 2023 15:39 utc | 51
You hit the nail on the head.
One thing people often don't think about is fielding a certain sized army. But having a huge army is useless if you can't replace losses on the nominal size of the army. That means once units etc. are depleted, they will stay depleted with insufficient replacements, and suddenly the area you were covering becomes unsustainable very quickly. Ukraine probably has an unsustainably large army, they should concentrate on shortening the front.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 14 2023 15:48 utc | 53
Posted by: c1ue | Nov 14 2023 15:32 utc | 49
First, it is obvious that in Ukraine too there are many people who don't buy the BS. However, there was a critical mass up to the Maidan and for sometime afterwards that swallowed it whole. But that had a lot to do with the fact that Ukraine continued to be a failed state, unlike Russia, which, despite numerous serious problems was on its way to salvage the situation. That has been after all Putin's most recognizable success.
A good contrast would be the Belarussians. Even there you can find liberal sub-humanoids who strongly believe that grovelling before their western betters is the greatest glory they can achieve in life (although they would definitely frame it differently, some crap about liberal democracy etc.). Courtesy of Lukashenko, they escaped the horror show of the 90s and by 2017 even the World Bank, no friend of any socialist was forced to concede the country's successes, omitting of course, critical details on how these came to be.
Well, no few Belarussians were rather stunned about the desire of so many Russians to pose as Slavic westerners at the cost of their country's future. Lukashenko's unfortunate effort to play on two boards before August 2020 was borne out of his aim to avoid bringing in Belarus the neoliberal baggage that is still plaguing Russia.
As for buying the war propaganda, it's safe to say the many Ukrainians aren't so gullible. They voted Zelensky precisely to change the country's course and after all went to hell and open war with Russia started, millions left as refugees altogether. Let's not be so harsh with them. As I posted previously, if the affluent, independent Finns can lose their heads so spectacularly, what can one expect fom the Ukrainians?
Posted by: Constantine | Nov 14 2023 15:52 utc | 54
Another note on population - I think it likely that emmigration to the west had a larger impact in central and western Ukraine post the 2001 census compared to Crimea and the east. In other words from the most pro-western regions. I'm not sure how Ukrainian citizens living and working in Europe prior to the conflict are counted, but I doubt many of them returned to fight and the number is sizable. These people were keeping the Ukrainian economy afloat with remittances before the SMO.
Posted by: the pessimist | Nov 14 2023 15:52 utc | 55
I'm not up on Zaluzhny's political leanings, but all things considered he's done a yoeman's job with the forces at his disposal. As I have read from time to time, the Russians respect him and don't underestimate his command capabilities. If that's true, it would not surprise me if Moscow isn't already considering offering him a job when this mess is over with- certainly not in a command position, but I could see him as a staff advisor to whoever is going to take charge of Russian forces in the region.
If, on the other hand, Zaluzhny chooses to 'go down with the ship', c'est la vie.
Posted by: John S | Nov 14 2023 16:00 utc | 56
@ Posted by: Constantine | Nov 14 2023 13:42 utc | 26
Thank you for that thoughtful response - before I deal with what you consider bollocks maybe in another post as this response has got long - I am not against the ex-Zionist escapee ‘Israelis’ who have returned back to their ‘homelands’ in Europe or elsewhere.
There are indeed some new Israelis who were honey-trapped to the Palestine in recent decades from New and Old World countries. I knew young sexy Israelis who were tasked to do that - spending some time on the Thai beaches as they got toned and tanned and slick with the chat up lines, as they headed to Oz or US where many European Jews had emigrated to. Tasked to find ‘white’ Jews to come settle in Israel to expand into the Palestinian Territories.
It has happened to US and Ex-Soviet Jewish peoples too.
Many of these honey-trapped (mostly fat ugly incel types boys AND girls) find themselves abandoned by their sexy boy and girlfriends turned into the home stealing , child killing monsters we see running amok on the long suffering Semitic Palestinians since then. Their Honeys moved on to their next target.
One thing is absolutely certain - the one place most of these ex European, ex New World Israelis should never ever go to, to make a New Khazaria/Israel is the one place the Anglo European Zionists have been trying to for centuries - that is the borderlands of Russia, the Crimea and the Black Sea and certainly not make the jewel city Odessa there their new ‘Jerusalem’.
The door to Mackinders World Island they have so long desired and the cause of much war and death of many tens of millions.
It would be well for the Palestinians and the Peoples who claim that as some promised land in the Levant to leave that Holy Abrahamic religion land, if that is what they want, the sooner the better.
That is the other main concern RIGHT NOW. To stop the further torture of the Palestinians. That Israel Project must end. Now.
They can all return back to where they started from, if they want or go somewhere in the ‘New World’ where many European Peoples have settled for centuries. Or stay in the Levant as citizens of these nations if they will have them as citizens of their nations. There is plenty of space in the New World, resources and historical connections- having wiped the actual Native populations out long ago. They definitely shouldn’t dispossess any more natives anywhere. No one should.
To be clear I mean the 4 of the 5 Eye Nations or other places. There are plenty of their fellow religious in the USA and they have full rights as any another settler there. There is also plenty of space in Canada, Australia and New Zealand or some South American countries, although there they would perhaps be a unwelcome minority for their fellow European emigres - the Christian Jew haters of church teachings of centuries past haven’t perhaps diluted their prejudices in these communities as in modern multicultural Europe and USA it seems. A bit like the Apartheid Boers used to be. It is the same in all these places where small inbred ethnic communities have existed.
Some may actually feel ‘at home’ with the Nazis who were secretly removed to some of these lands after being defeated by the Red Armies. After all they share the same xenophobic apartheid , white supremacist murdering nazionists beliefs, just like these ww2 ‘heroes’ who are lauded in the West now days. Given major recognition for their forever hatred of Russians even more then anyone else. Some even share the same religions like the Kagans, Blinkens, Freedlands and so on. No?
The only one of the original countries they shouldn’t return to as ultra religious Zionists is the U.K. which is where the hotbed of Zionism still exists. Institutionalised to a much greater degree than the US even on a per capita basis. Being the home of that philosophy.
Along with many anti Zionists Hasidic and secular Jews.
That would be a cauldron for internecine unrest due to the population densities as a result of the geography.
Ideally those British Aristo Zionists Jewish and Christian should also leave the U.K. and go live where they would be best comfortable - with other Zionists - Jewish, Christian or whatever. The Bible Belt would be ideal or with the ukrop Natzios of Turdeaus Canada.
They can even be part of the new nations of the inevitable dissolution of the United State of America.
Another Project that has outlived its ambition within a couple of centuries.
They can all live happily together in their pure Aryan New World Order, awaiting the Rapture for as long as they want.
We’ll just have to take these nukes off their hands first though.
Anyway, as to the bollocks, what exactly do you know of the history of the European Jews you say have nothing to do with Khazaria?
Do you know who they were? When they were? Where they were?
Do you know how they ended up as the European Jews first before spreading to the 4 corners with the other European settlers?
Do you want me to tell you what I know of that history?
Not being facetious- just ask and I’ll put in another post as this has already got long and probably somewhat off-piste, sorry all. I’m still not over the horror of what I looked at yesterday.
Too many Palestinians have suffered and are horribly doing so now and way too many Russians died last century and previous ones and 50,000 in this SMO to allow that calamity to rise again like zombies climbing out of the massive new cemeteries of Ukrops planted by the naztzios visible from space I’m told like the Great Wall or the Giant Pyramids!
Posted by: DunGroanin | Nov 14 2023 16:07 utc | 57
The popular support for maidan (apart from the radical nationalists) stemmed from widespread frustration with rampant corruption at all levels of society coupled with a failing economy. It was to address these long standing issues, along with ending the civil war, that Zelensky was elected in a landslide. He has failed on all counts and this will be remembered in the end.
Posted by: the pessimist | Nov 14 2023 16:07 utc | 58
Arch Bungle | Nov 14 2023 10:33 utc | 4
All I want to know is when they trundle Tony Blair in to negotiate peace with the Russians on behalf of the Ukrainians ...
Ukraine will have to wait Blair is being touted as the Saviour of Israel.
Posted by: Bilejones | Nov 14 2023 16:11 utc | 59
Perhaps only grammarians will notice B's use of "The Ukraine" in this essay. However, it is significant linguistically and socially.
As a young person, I remember references to 'the Ukraine'; however, this shifted later, perhaps in the 2000s. In my linguistic studies of English grammar, I learned that English native speakers have a consistent system of using the definite article 'the', the indefinite article 'a, and no article. Of interest is the definite article and the null article.
In a nutshell, when we think of an entity as composed of multiple parts, we use definite articles. Examples are 'the United States', 'the Philippines', 'the Sierra Nevada', 'the Russian Federation, etc.
When we think of an entity as unitary, we use the null article. Examples are 'America', 'Mindinao', 'Mount McKinley', and 'Russia'. This system is quite consistent and causes much trouble for non-native speakers.
Native speakers understood that by saying 'the Ukraine', they thought of it as composed of regions and ethnicities not comprising a unitary whole. At a certain point in time, it became politically correct to say 'Ukraine', as if the Ukraine were united, not fragmented.
We who say or write 'the Ukraine' know that there is no united Ukraine.
Posted by: Tedder | Nov 14 2023 16:15 utc | 60
Re Ukie Stupidity:
My question is: did the nation generally ever truly have confidence in a Jewish Oligarch supported Yiddish-speaking comedian who earlier played the President on TV, not to mention playing the piano with his penis?
Personally, I doubt it.
Ukraine is not only now a failed State but for some time, perhaps since the official Jewish takeover in 2014, also a fake state (like the US).
That said I can well imagine that during the 90s many in the Soviet sphere felt that Liberalism was the way, not understanding the price would involve 300 years 'living together' versus already 200, and not anticipating so rapid a fall from common sense and civilizational coherence.
Just another shit show. Millions die. A few get obscenely rich.
Ho Hum.
Hmm... wonder how long it will take for Russian flags to be flying over Odessa and Kiev? Is there a betting pool on that?
Posted by: Scorpion | Nov 14 2023 15:16 utc | 41
I was just thinking that Odessa might be a good new capital for a demilitarized Ukraine from Russia's perspective. They don't want to be left with just an armless and legless region on their border. Rather,if anything, one which can have historic and cultural diversity plus what can be formed from existing ability to interact with other nations. Kiev doesn't really fit that, never did after the Tartars razed it. Kiev is a bad memory now and historically speaking, like Dresden.
Posted by: juliania | Nov 14 2023 16:42 utc | 62
Tedder | Nov 14 2023 16:15 utc | 61
"Perhaps only grammarians will notice B's use of "The Ukraine" in this essay. However, it is significant linguistically and socially...
Native speakers understood that by saying 'the Ukraine', they thought of it as composed of regions and ethnicities not comprising a unitary whole. At a certain point in time, it became politically correct to say 'Ukraine', as if the Ukraine were united, not fragmented.
We who say or write 'the Ukraine' know that there is no united Ukraine."
No, we're aware that the Borderland isn't a real country and the hohols aren't a real nation, but it's a mishmash first cobbled together in the 19th century out of the Austro-Hungarian empire's divide-and-conquer motives. "Ukrainians" are just degenerate, feral Russians.
I too recall the campaign to impose the political correctness of saying "Ukraine" rather than the Ukraine.
Once in awhile a troll here starts sputtering and fibrillating about how it should be called "Ukraine", always starting an argument. Typical of the NAFO idiots.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Nov 14 2023 16:48 utc | 63
@Ciroc -- 18
I am so sick of that kind of comment, it is so naive it is ridiculous. That the people of Ukraine ELECTED Ze, so they are now all culpable.
Yes, they elected him, because he ran on A PLATFORM OF PEACE and NO WAR. Mending fences with Russia AND ENFORCING Minsk.
Well, once he got in, he started going crazy and WENT THE EXACT OPPOSITE. How in the F can you blame Ukranians who voted FOR PEACE for this DOUBLE CROSS.
It's a story as old as time. Woodrow Wilson, literally elected on a slogan "HE KEPT US OUT OF THE WAR" and then boom, he gets in and we go to war.
Same with FDR. Same with the European Union. It failed in country after country but the powers that be would never accept the people's will. DON'T YOU GET IT. The West is run by an international clique and oligarchs. VOTING DOESN'T MATTER.
Trump was a complete aberration. Why?? Because the oligarchs believed their own media and thought there was no chance in hell he could win. Thus, they just did their normal amount of cheating. Oh boy, as we saw were they ready for 2020 and were not going to make that mistake again.
Just think about it. Trump ran on really one issue -- the WALL and shutting down almost all immigration cold. HIS OWN PARTY wouldn't even give him a measly $10-15B to build the damn thing, he had to use his executive authority 3 years in!!
Democracy is a farce, it is a tool of oligarchs, and most likely is the WORST FORM of government in terms of being responsive to the needs and wants of the people.
Posted by: Johnny | Nov 14 2023 16:50 utc | 64
@Scorpion | Nov 14 2023 16:22 utc | 62
Zelensky's comedy TV show "Servant of the People" was wildly popular in Ukraine for its lampooning of the political class. The landslide election of an inexperienced outsider to run the country simply shows how desperate people were for fundamental change. There is some evidence that initially he really intended radical change, that is until his confrontation with Right Sector thugs on the contact line where they threatened to hang him. From that point he simply embraced the politically corrupt status quo and the deeply embedded russophobic agenda of the state. It proved impossible to gain political support and protection within the government without paying for it using western money and the baggage that comes with it. As President Putin remarked "Everything in Ukraine has a price and nothing can be done without paying for it".
Posted by: the pessimist | Nov 14 2023 16:50 utc | 65
Down the drain goes Ukraine. The political infighting and blame-game combo will only serve to further weaken an already trembling military that really needs to go over to the defensive along geographically defensible lines. Every day that decision's delayed means another 1000 troops kaput along with their meager equipment and ammo. That the Soros pukes are now exposed as deeply involved is also a very bad sign. In the North, what reserves exist are no longer being called brigades or even battalions, but are now the size of companies and swiftly evaporate into the meat grinder. In the South, the game of trying to occupy islands in the Dnieper as a show of offensive strength only serves to attrit the troops committed as they're getting nowhere except into a grave. Yes, Russia loses some troops too, but the ratio remains catastrophic for the Ukrainians at roughly 1:10, and that figure is likely worse since the Ukies are incapable of evacuating their wounded while the Russian's can.
Again, Russia is looking for the first major sign that Ukraine is willing to negotiate, and that would be the overturning of Zelensky's No Negotiation Ukase. But there'll be no freezing of the conflict as with the previous Minsk solutions. Given Russia's SMO and security goals, an unconditional surrender along with the ceding of territories not yet liberated by Russia will be the most likely terms on offer. The Outlaw US Empire clearly wants to keep its foothold in Ukraine so it can return to the offensive at some future date, and that's something Russia sees very clearly and won't allow. In other words, negotiations will take at least two years and end in 2025 or even later as Shoigu predicted with further facts of the ground established. And I can't help but think there'll be some linkage of the West Asian conflict with the SMO solution.
B's use of the definite article with "Ukraine" is more likely caused by the fact that his mother tongue is German. German does not use the definite article before names of countries, the majority of which being of the neutral grammatical gender. However, those few counties whose names are of feminine gender take
the definite article. In German, therefore, one says "die Ukraine" and "die Türkei" but "Frankreich", "Deutschland", Russland", "England" etc.
Posted by: Moscow Exile | Nov 14 2023 16:58 utc | 67
@Constantine #54
I've never said that all Ukrainians buy their mainstream line.
However, it is 100% clear that insufficient Ukrainians disagree or at least both disagree and are willing to do something about it.
Belarus is a terrible example because people there are not suffering in any way. Some may want Western freedom because they think it is better for them personally.
It is completely different in Ukraine right now.
I'm not talking about pre-SMO or Elensky's election or whatever; those are all periods where the situation in Ukraine was not clearly better or worse than before.
Now, however, it is clearly worse.
The majority of Ukrainians know personally someone (the average was 3) killed in the SMO. The press gangs must be ubiquitous. The change in everyday life outside of a select gang in Kiev, is blatantly obvious.
It is one thing to go along with a potential change or against a potential change - neither of which will likely be significant.
It is another thing entirely to go along with an entirely horrific situation which has no obvious path towards improvement.
Posted by: c1ue | Nov 14 2023 16:58 utc | 68
@the pessimist #55
All of the former Eastern European nations, with the sole exception of Poland, experienced massive population falls after their "liberation". This was partly negative demographics as '90s style deregulation and societal nets unraveled but probably more due to emigration.
This has more impact than just the people leaving because there is a clear skills and age division between the emigres and the leave-behinds.
The net result for Eastern Europe has been significantly degraded economic and demographic futures. The West has literally vampirically sucked out the young blood of those nations much as rich people try to live longer by literally transfusing the blood of young people.
In this sense, these new practices of the rich are just appropriating national sovereign practice to the individual level.
For Ukraine, it is even worse: the accelerated decline of that society will only accelerate even more as the core of their already vampirically drained population dies on the war fronts.
What's even less excusable is that there are people in Ukraine who have living memory of what this type of loss entails - the Soviet losses in World War 2 are quite comparable, only Russia has ensured that the dead are overwhelming combatants unlike the Germans and their proxies.
But Russia can do nothing about the implosion of Ukrainian society and economy.
Posted by: c1ue | Nov 14 2023 17:05 utc | 69
I should have said, "Kiev is a tragic memory". I'd think there is still a place for it in new Ukraine, just as there is for Dresden and other places of tragic memory. But that would be for the remaining population to decide themselves.
Posted by: juliania | Nov 14 2023 17:07 utc | 70
@JohnS #57
I'm not up on Zaluzhny's political leanings, but all things considered he's done a yoeman's job with the forces at his disposal. As I have read from time to time, the Russians respect him and don't underestimate his command capabilities.
My understanding is that Zaluzhny is much more bought into the far right/anti Russian line than Zelensky has ever been.
As for respect: I get zero impression of Russian military respect for that man.
He has frittered away 3 full Ukrainian militaries and accomplished nothing. The first was understandable - a Russian surprise assault.
The 2nd is not: he traded Ukrainian lives and equipment for land when Russia clearly stated its goals were attrition, not land.
The 3rd is even less excusable: he made public demands for a specific set of equipment that he said was needed to defeat Russia/march to the Sea of Azov. He got it, and failed.
What exactly is there to respect?
Posted by: c1ue | Nov 14 2023 17:09 utc | 71
@the pessimist #68
Zelensky's comedy TV show "Servant of the People" was wildly popular in Ukraine for its lampooning of the political class. The landslide election of an inexperienced outsider to run the country simply shows how desperate people were for fundamental change.
This is accurate but leaves out a number of very critical points.
1) The show was created and sponsored by Kolomoiski specifically to elevate Zelensky as a political figure.
2) The evidence for the above includes the fact that Zelensky's political party name was chosen to be identical to the show name - hence political ads pushing the political party and Zelensky could bypass advertising election laws in Ukraine "because they were for the TV show".
There is some evidence that initially he really intended radical change, that is until his confrontation with Right Sector thugs on the contact line where they threatened to hang him. From that point he simply embraced the politically corrupt status quo and the deeply embedded russophobic agenda of the state.There is no evidence of that except his pre-election platform - and pre-election platforms are the grist for the more-often-true-than-not proverb that all politicians lie. For example: he appointed many far right types into his cabinet and to prominent positions in the Ukrainian government long before his apocryphal threatening by far right types in the Donetsk front lines. From my perspective: Zelensky transitioned from being a Kolomoiski puppet into being a Western puppet after the SMO started. The precise transition time was when he decided to listen to the West instead of carrying through the negotiations he had already committed to with Russia. Zelensky isn't some tragic and heroic figure - he is a sock puppet with many different hands up his ass - that has been heavily pushed by media throughout his political career.
Posted by: c1ue | Nov 14 2023 17:16 utc | 72
@ Posted by: Giyane | Nov 14 2023 14:26 utc | 33
G are you saying that the Russian Yids who never left their homeland , some who achieved billionaire status eg Abrahmovic or Prigozhin Jnr types have enough emotional attachment to the apartheid zion project to bring down their own economy if Russia intervened in the Levant? And they are the reason why Russia survived the First Strike by Strategic Sanctions? And the next 10?
If that is what you mean - I don’t agree.
It is clear to me that the SCO partners knew what was planned for them and they had prepared carefully and fully for it. When XI and Putin met in person just before the SMO their smiles and mutual affection was evident for all to see.
Their statement of a once in a hundred years meant they were prepared.
When the rouble spiked with the first sanctions package and ‘In March 2022, it was reported that Nabiullina had attempted to resign her position, only to be ordered to stay in post by Putin.[23] In September 2022, the United States Treasury Department sanctioned Nabiullina.’
They waited until September, 6 months later! They thought they had the Fix In.
Tossers.
That central banker was being targeted and played would have obviously been known and kept her out of the loop. That was maskarovia on the strategic financial scale ! Genius.
That she was kept in position showed they knew she wasn’t a real traitor.
There is no way Xi would have let the Russian economy collapse, there is no way they weren’t prepared about their reserves being frozen, how ever much were still left with the Western bankers , and there is no way they hadn’t planned to be able to bypass the sanctions on trading energy to the world that needed it.
In fact they have used it to keep the Indians on side by letting their industrialists make a massive margin by-passing the sanctions.
(By the way apparently it’s Hindu new year 2080! Saarmubarak friends. I don’t know why 2000 and 80 , one day will have to look it up)
They have used the sanctions to get the Arab states on side , The Africans and most of the world that was always the third or second. Always the bullied.
Only India and Turkey sitting on the wall now matter. The Oil Sheiks can see that their gangster insurance policy deals nearly a century old ain’t worth shit but all their money is in US treasuries.
They just need to realise it’s worthless. It’s Caesars Money. They just need to render upon the Collective unipolar Caesars what is theirs and not be a bunch of cracked shells left in the sands they have built their castles on.
That’s just what I see from what’s in the public domain - I’m sure they have deeper game plans which we only see the outcomes of in hindsight.
So - no I don’t think loyal Russians of whatever religion and however tied to the illegal apartheid murderous state or in the supposed control of Global Financiers have ANY influence on the decisions and actions of the Masters of the Multipolar World that they are parenting. As Prigozhin snr found out and he had an army and multi billions!
As the old version goes you hold your enemies closer!
When the rouble spike vanished I knew Russia and Xi and the SCO had won the war - the Stalingrad moment, it was done within weeks - ever since it’s just been an inexorable grind to destroy all the Old Imperials Fire power and capacity to ever strike back.
‘Tatters I tell you Tatters’ 😉
Hope that make sense? My brain hurts thinking that out. Need a cuppa or a few pints.
Posted by: DunGroanin | Nov 14 2023 17:27 utc | 73
@57
The only thing Zaluzhny has proven good at is feeding conscripts into the Russian meat grinder, for that he deserves a grenade from his own troops. That said, I can see where the Russians might want to send him a thank you note.
Posted by: Fred777 | Nov 14 2023 17:33 utc | 74
@Posted by: Exile | Nov 14 2023 11:02 utc | 5
I covered this in my piece Ukraine: A Country Of Old And Damaged Men as have others on this site. You are off by about 8-9 million, if the population was as low as you state Ukraine would have been finished a while ago given the large numbers of over 60s in the population, plus still reserved occupations, people hiding from the draft, the horrendous losses in dead, seriously injured and captured, children and women.
You provide no logic for your starting point of 34 million.
c1ue@74
My comment about Z had mainly to do with public perception and the election results rather than with him personally. As to what Kolomoisky's adgenda for his puppet was, that is not clear to me. Z did make initial moves toward Minsk implementation. What Kolomoisky's sin was to end up on the outs with the west I'm not sure either. Maybe he wished to cut a deal with Russia.
Posted by: the pessimist | Nov 14 2023 17:37 utc | 76
There's some discussion of the Zaluzhny v Zelensky 'duel' here: Ukraine Weekly Update 10th November: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-a9e
Posted by: Robert Hamilton Camp | Nov 14 2023 17:47 utc | 77
Not yet discussed here so far as I know are likely long term health effects on those soldiers staffing the artillery brigades for both the Russian and Ukrainian forces who ultimately survive the conflict. Blast shock wave injuries to soft internal tissues and organs from shell firing was not anticipated by the US in its Afghanistan and Iraq wars, according to a November 5th NYT investigative report. These injuries go far beyond the type of traumatic brain injuries that were in part foreseen.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/us-artillery-isis-takeaways.html?searchResultPosition=1
Posted by: mjh | Nov 14 2023 17:47 utc | 78
From the Military Summary Video More And More Soldiers Refuse To Follow Orders Of The Ukrainian Command it does seem that the morale and discipline within the Ukrainian military, at both the grunt and senior staff levels, is significantly declining. Feels a lot like what happened in WW1 with the French troops rebelling against the senseless slaughter in 1917, the US really bailed out the British and French from late 1917 onwards.
Incredible that so many Ukrainians are still fighting given the horrendous losses and lack of gains. As Russia takes back all the 2023 Spring/Summer Ukie offensive gains, together with Avdiivka and gains in the North, together with a horrendous winter for Ukraine and much lower levels of Western support, perhaps Spring 2024 will bring a much different outlook. No wonder the West is pushing to "freeze" the conflict to fend off total defeat, a freeze the Russians should absolutely ignore.
So whilst I am interested in the various estimates of numbers posed for Ukraine's population, my thinking is that even at the lower values the war fighting potential is greater than we might think. Ukraine does have a big army (smaller and less competent and equipped than it was) and it is able to maintain that by Western support.It can devote much more of its popultaion to fighting and dying because of NATO gifts.
Ukraine no longer has a functioning economy and is reliant on western [EU but mainly USA donations] to pay for - well - nearly everything. It can put more troops in the front line as its rear area is to an extent manned by NATO personnel out of the war zone - eg hospitals, repair workshops, planning, logistic centres etc. It produces almost no weapons and is reliant on foreign supplies. Not to mention basic humanitarian aid keeping the civilian economy afloat. Or indeed swimming in US$ in some parts.[Saigon 1973 anyone?]
When you look at it, NATO is supplying arms and cash (a good deal of which is stolen) and the Ukraine is supplying the blood and the bodies. But anyway, the UAF is bigger than it should be in other circumstances and will take more killing than we might think.
However I think the end is in sight, but my guess is next year some time before it implodes. Of course that assumes there is no internal collapse within Ukraine before then, and that is looking likely just now. And if the money hose is turned off then sit back and watch the rats leave the sinking ship.And all this presupposes that arms shipments will continue at a level to keep Ukraine in the fight - a questionable assumption.
Posted by: marcjf | Nov 14 2023 17:53 utc | 80
Zelensky gets an airline ticket to Miami. Zalushny gets a bullet to his neck. Whoever is left standing after a 24 hour AK47 circle jerk in Kiev gets to sign over what’s left of the Ukraine to Moscow. DC, London, Bonn, Warsaw get nothing but the contempt that they deserve.
Posted by: Jstert | Nov 14 2023 17:58 utc | 81
@ Tedder 61
"Perhaps only grammarians will notice B's use of "The Ukraine" in this essay. However, it is significant linguistically and socially.
... I learned that English native speakers have a consistent system of using the definite article 'the', the indefinite article 'a, and no article. Of interest is the definite article and the null article.
In a nutshell, when we think of an entity as composed of multiple parts, we use definite articles. ...
When we think of an entity as unitary, we use the null article. ..."
Excellent point.
English and French are my native tongues, but yet I never totally understood these distinctions - until now. It's the same in French, BTW, although Latin languages have exceptions, such as L'Argentine. I too have noticed that misuse or non-use of the definitive article is a sure sign of a non-native speaker, when it's not a typo.
Posted by: JessDTruth | Nov 14 2023 18:01 utc | 82
"The Russian economy instead of being in ‘tatters’ is booming and will carry on doing so spectacularly, just like the postwar US economy did - having made all the gains while Europe was the one living on po-taters for decades after."
Really? What about the Marshall Plan, Ludwig Erhard, and the post-War German economic miracle? Even now, despite some efforts to pretend that the Russian economy is as productive as Germany's, average living standards in German are far higher than in Russia. Russia is about at the level of Greece. There is a reason why a majority of Ukrainian emigres fled to the West and not to the East. However, Germany continues to commit suicide, while Russia has weathered the storm brilliantly.
Posted by: greg | Nov 14 2023 18:06 utc | 83
@ bisfugged 76
"(((They))) are dumping the West with this next big war (that the US is planned on losing) and will move all major operations to the East where Xi and possibly Putin will welcome their power and capital with open arms."
That seems logical based on their track record, but I have not yet seen any proof that Zionism is starting a Pacific Pivot, nor of the West actually planning to lose the wars. Intent is hard to prove or disprove, but I have not seen anything that can't be more simply and logically attributed to ginormous arrogance, not just of Jews, neocons, etc., but also of the upper layers of American society.
If you have any proof, however meager, I'm sure many people want to see it. What do you have ?
Posted by: JessDTruth | Nov 14 2023 18:09 utc | 84
greg@85
On emigres (refugees) - latest numbers are 4 plus million registered in EU, 5 million in Russia...
Posted by: the pessimist | Nov 14 2023 18:17 utc | 85
The EU probably is hosting more than the official number of course.
Posted by: the pessimist | Nov 14 2023 18:19 utc | 86
Posted by: smuks | Nov 14 2023 15:25 utc | 44
"If you replace 'liberal' with 'capitalist', it becomes more accurate"
There is no point in replacing 'liberal' with 'capitalist' - the two are in most respects identical, and equally reprehensible. Liberalism is just the political arm of capitalism, and the two are really inseparable.
Posted by: Jams O'Donnell | Nov 14 2023 18:23 utc | 87
Jams O'Donnell@89
So, no 'conservative' capatilists? Get a clue.
In other news Sputnik is reporting on the pro-US ruling party in Taiwan perhaps losing power to a China friendly coalition in Jan elections. The long shadow of Ukraine affecting politics in asia.
Posted by: the pessimist | Nov 14 2023 18:31 utc | 88
Posted by: Tedder | Nov 14 2023 16:15 utc | 60
As far as I can tell, 'Ukraine' means 'Borderlands', so 'the Borderlands' / aka 'the Ukraine' is a perfectly legitimate usage. But I'm not a Russian speaker, so maybe someone who is can comment on this.
Posted by: Jams O'Donnell | Nov 14 2023 18:35 utc | 90
The end game? Few from Galicia, the Nazi stronghold, have been fed into the grinder. In other parts of Ukraine, the men need to fight the nazis in a neutral Ukraine have been virtual wiped out on the frontlines. I don't see the SMO ending until that problem is solved. Perhaps some form off agreement that ends frontline fighting with Russia controlling all of the territories to their Administrative borders, but the SMO left open ended which would allow missile or other strikes against any building threats in west Ukraine/Galicia.
Ukraine is just one front in what is now becoming a hybrid global battle against the US empire. Which takes me back to my conclusion in early to mid 22 that the SMO would not end, could not end until the US is defeated globally.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 14 2023 18:39 utc | 91
@ juliania 62
I don't think there will be any "Ukraine" left, and those regions will not have any "national" capitol. Ruslan Ischenko wrote about this a month or so ago. He wrote about there being no single Ukrainian language. That resulted from the failure of the regions to decide on a single version. (The Poltavan dialect was first chosen, but then discarded because it sounds "too Russian".) Extrapolating from his essay, I suppose Ischenko thinks Russia will recognize the oblasts as separate entities but not as part of a discredited and soon non-existent "Ukraine". So Kiev would remain the administrative capitol of Kiev oblast - and nothing more.
Russia might treat Galicia as simply an occupied hostile territory for 20 to 50 years, separately from the rest of "404", perhaps even dangling Galicia as a potential prize for Poland leaving the West entirely. I doubt Poland will want Galicia, but dangling it as a possible prize would be an excuse for Russia to do very little with Galicia, with its Russian-haters, with its infrastructure and economy. Galicia could get stuffed with Barack Obama style "hope and change" until the people get sick and tired of the BS and make a choice of which civilization they embrace. This will play out over many decades.
Posted by: JessDTruth | Nov 14 2023 18:42 utc | 92
Cocaine Guy isn't ready to go, and it would not be easy to extract him alive even if he wanted. His own naysee people will take care
Posted by: Augusto Pi | Nov 14 2023 11:52 utc | 10
--------------------------------------------------------------
"...he ends up like Qaddafi." Not that would be justice ⚖.
Posted by: Ed | Nov 14 2023 18:49 utc | 93
@ Jams O'Donnell | Nov 14 2023 18:35 utc | 92
I’m sure I’m not the first to note that neither Russian nor Ukrainian has articles, so one can’t say “the Ukraine” in either language.
“The Ukraine” was the usual form in English until maybe a generation or so ago. Using the article has a hint of “region” rather than “state” — as does “The Netherlands”— which in Dutch is singular! — although the Dutch aren’t complaining … yet.
How about we revert to calling it “Little Tussia”? Problem solved! ;-)
Posted by: malenkov | Nov 14 2023 18:49 utc | 94
"...he ends up like Qaddafi." NOW that would be justice ⚖.
Posted by: Ed | Nov 14 2023 18:49 utc | 95
Posted by: Ed | Nov 14 2023 18:50 utc | 95
Oops! Not “Tussia” of course, although that makes for a naughty German slang pun, especially in red-light districts.
Posted by: malenkov | Nov 14 2023 18:50 utc | 96
FWIW, b explained his usage of „the Ukraine“ in a dedicated post sometime last year. Couldn’t find it with a Google search though, just too many hits for „Ukraine on site:moonofalabama.org“ ;-)
Posted by: Zet | Nov 14 2023 18:59 utc | 97
Ukraine is just one front in what is now becoming a hybrid global battle against the US empire. Which takes me back to my conclusion in early to mid 22 that the SMO would not end, could not end until the US is defeated globally.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 14 2023 18:39 utc | 93
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Defeated how? Militarily (fat chance)? Economically (maybe, but what would that look like)? An internal civil war (we have been doing that for 30 years)? Nuclear war (talking about throwing out the baby with the bath water)?
Peter, do you have any ideas, because I don't see them? Long term corrosion is out only hope, but most or all of us will be dead by then. Of course, climate change and lack of fresh water will get us all soon enough. Sorry to be so pessimistic, but wars, and more wars. are our future.
Posted by: Ed | Nov 14 2023 19:06 utc | 98
Interesting. But those damned Ruskies have no problem with this sort of lexical subtlties: they have no article at all.
Posted by: jean levant | Nov 14 2023 19:16 utc | 99
Mike Pompousnose appointed to Kievstar board. The rats are still climbing aboard the Titanic trying to feather their nests as the band plays on.
Posted by: the pessimist | Nov 14 2023 19:30 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Never Fear! David Cameron can continue to suck the teat of corruption no matter who is, ostensibly, in charge in The Ukraine. He has form.
Posted by: merkin scot | Nov 14 2023 10:29 utc | 1