Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
November 27, 2023

Ukraine SitRep: High Losses, Political Infighting, Blocked Borders

How many losses did the Ukrainian army have in its war against Russia.

We, so far, did not have any answer to that. The Ukrainian military has given no realistic account of its own losses while its claims of Russian losses are obviously exaggerated.

The Russia military is likewise giving no numbers for its own losses. But its daily reports give estimates of Ukrainian ones. These are currently around 650 per day plus/minus 200 depending on the intensity of the fighting.

Some western observers, foremost retired Colonel Macgregor, say that Ukraine's unrecoverable losses have exceeded 400,000 men. But he does not name his sources.

Now a new chapter in the war between the Ukrainian president Zelenski and the Commander in Chief of the Ukrainian army, General Zaluzny, may have given us an answer. Yesterday this news item found its way to the Strana news site (machine translation):

Zaluzhny didn't provide the plan of war-2024 and has to leave-the people's Deputy from "Servants of the people"

The commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, does not have a war plan for 2024, and therefore must resign.

This was stated by Deputy head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security and Defense, MP from Servant of the People Mariana Bezuglaya on her Facebook page, referring to a "non-public discussion" with the military.

"Yes, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine could not provide a plan for 2024. Neither big nor small, neither asymmetrical nor symmetrical. The military simply said that they need to take at least 20 thousand citizens a month, " she writes.

Zaluzny has no plans for 2024 because there is nothing he can do about the upcoming defeat of the Ukrainian army.

Every time he urges to stop defending positions that can not be held, like Bakhmut and Avdeevka, the political leadership tells him use all reserves and to keep holding. Every time he urges to build strong defense lines and to retreat to them he gets overruled. There is thereby nothing, except one number, that he can plan for.

That number is the one of the irretrievable losses of the Ukrainian army is experiencing. Zaluzny needs 20,000 new men per month to replace the losses and to keep his army going.

Assuming that the number is an average estimate we can calculate that 20 months of war have cost the Ukraine some 660 losses per day for a total of some 400,000. Irretrievable losses are not only dead (KIA), missed in action (MIA), or soldiers who preferred to become prisoners of war of the Russian army (POWs). They also include the severally wounded people who will be unable to come back onto the battle field.

These numbers seem high but we continue to see more and more reports that point to extremely high losses:

Ivan Katchanovski @I_Katchanovski - 0:35 UTC · Nov 27, 2023

Adviser of Zelenskyy: There is now "terrible shortage" of artillery shells & "huge shortage" of mines and military personnel on frontline. He heard "scary numbers" that average age in some brigades is 54 & that 3 people remain in some companies out of 110 at start of the war. https://youtu.be/MqRNWdqzF7E?si=6EnJEa25zcK-6p-4&t=196

Storming Russian ditches when one's rare troops have an average(!) age of 54 is impossible.

There have been other report which, similar to the one above, speak of the heavy depletion of Ukrainian units:

Kotsyurba and Lysenko’s company began the summer with 120 men. It’s now down to around 20, including replacements. The rest are dead, wounded or have been transferred away from assault duties. The new faces are mostly over 40 years old, some in poor health.

That is no longer an army but a Volkssturm like forces which enlists grandpas and kids to do the fighting.

In response to the threat of firing Zaluzny some activists immediately threatened a coup (machine translation):

A well-known activist close to Western structures, the founder of the StateWatch organization, Alexander Lemenov, threatened Vladimir Zelensky with a military coup.

He wrote about this on Facebook.

"What can we say about this style of communication? I don't have enough words to describe... they'll play out. We will lose more territory. But not all, far from all. And in Kiev, the government will really change, but not to the Russian one, but to the military one.

Zelenski was thus forced to intervene. He had to disavow the comments by the parliamentarian (machine translation):

The President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky disowned the statements of Maryana Bezuglaya , who made accusations against the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny, and condemned her statements.

The corresponding video message was published by the presidential representative in the Verkhovna Rada, Fyodor Venislavsky.

"Mariana Bezuglaya's appointment to the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security and Defense may threaten the national security of Ukraine," Venislavsky said.

Meanwhile, Bezuglaya continues to bend her line.

She posted on Facebook a cartoon of a military man who swears that he doesn't know if there is an "offensive plan". She accompanied the picture with the following caption: "When the mines were "discovered" or "go, there are only a couple of p#dors"(c). The military sent them from the brigades now."

Probably, in this way, she wanted to express the idea that the Ukrainian command failed to correctly assess the enemy's forces and the difficulties that the APU will face during the offensive.

Unless the Pentagon and the Biden administration intervene Zelenski will fire Zaluzny within the next few weeks.

British 'experts' continue to push the Ukrainian army into conscripting younger men (machine translation):

The Armed Forces of Ukraine need younger soldiers, because the current average age of the military is too high.

This is stated by Western military experts on the pages of the Financial Times newspaper.

According to experts, this is due to the fact that "the conflict has turned into small infantry battles on foot in trench systems," which require better physical fitness. At the same time, the average age of Ukrainian men fighting at the front and undergoing training in the West is 30-40 years.

Senior Research Fellow, Royal Joint Forces Institute Jack Watlin believes that the Armed Forces of Ukraine this year mobilized "disproportionately many older men," but now they need young people with greater endurance.

At the same time Director of the Polish analytical center Rochan Consulting Konrad Muzyka says that Ukraine cannot wage a war of attrition with the Russian Federation, since the Russian Federation has more equipment and soldiers. Kiev needs more prepared and trained troops.

Earlier the former British Defense Minister Ben Wallace had told Ukraine to draft younger soldiers.

But all these 'experts' ignore the severe problems with Ukraine's population 'pyramid':


bigger

The 20 to 30 year old men they want to draft are simply not there to be recruited in any decisive numbers.

There are also other issues that currently hamper the Ukrainian military. For more than two weeks Polish truckers, who previously had the  dominant role in the European freight business, are blocking the country's borders with Ukraine. Thousands of trucks are stuck on each side with waiting times that are now exceeding two weeks.

That is because the EU gave the non-member Ukraine the privilege of doing business in Europe without having to adhere to its rules. The Ukrainians, with less costs, thus took over the Polish business.

The blockade of the border affects military as well as humanitarian goods. Soon the Ukrainian military will be starving of everything it needs for the war.

It's not only the truckers in Poland who are very nervous about a potential Ukrainian membership in the EU:

Polish farmers on Thursday blocked the Medyka border checkpoint with Ukraine, demanding subsidies on wheat and state-backed loans amid an influx of Ukrainian grain, Polish media reported.

Protesters said they would block trucks from reaching the checkpoint between 9 a.m. and 8 p.m. every day until Sunday, the IAR news agency reported.

The farmers want the government to subsidise the prices of wheat, extend state-backed loans due to the influx of grain from Ukraine, and keep the farm tax rates unchanged, according to news outlets.

On November 6, Polish truck drivers launched a blockade of the Hrebenne, Dorohusk and Korczowa checkpoints, demanding that the European Union reinstate permits for Ukrainian transport companies entering the bloc.

On Thursday, Polish transport companies announced that the protest at the Dorohusk checkpoint would be extended until February 1, Ukraine's Ukrinform news agency reported.
...
The Polish protests coincide with concerns in Ukraine that the European Union may not agree next month to launch formal accession talks for it to join the 27-member bloc, a key objective for Kyiv, according to the Reuters news agency.

It reported that prolonged protests and the resulting disruption to trade could affect Ukraine's fragile, wartime economy.

The price of motor vehicle gas (LPG), which is widely used to fuel cars, has surged 30 percent due to the protests, according to an industry analyst cited by Reuters.

Should Ukraine enter the European Union Poland will lose most of the agricultural and other development subsidies it is currently receiving from the EU. Those subsidies would then flow into the even less developed, low pay Ukraine. It is thus unlikely that Poland will agree to its membership.

Over the last days Ukraine, on top of the losses and political troubles, saw a record storm in the Black Sea accompanied by a serious drop in temperature. Thousands of households in south Ukraine and Crimea are without electricity. Snow is hindering all movements.

Posted by b on November 27, 2023 at 11:30 UTC | Permalink

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That and a Ukrainian TV news show stated 1.126M total casualties the other day.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Nov 27 2023 11:45 utc | 1

It should be noted as well that Russian forces checking Ukrainian trenches after they have stormed them have been finding corpses of female Ukrainian soldiers. As time goes by, we may expect that more women in Ukraine, and across different age groups as well from late teens to pensioner age, will be drafted into the AFU and be sent to the frontlines.

Posted by: Refinnejenna | Nov 27 2023 11:54 utc | 2

Украина не подпишет мировое соглашение с РФ без репараций.
Украина никогда не пойдёт на это. И мир не пойдёт, потому что кто-то должен эти репарации выплатить. Если не Россия, то кто?
(с) замминистра юстиции Украины Ирина Мудрая

Ukraine will not sign a settlement agreement with the Russian Federation without reparations. Ukraine will never agree to this. And peace will not go well, because someone has to pay these reparations. If not Russia, then who?
(c) Deputy Minister of Justice of Ukraine Iryna Mudra

Posted by: reparations... | Nov 27 2023 12:09 utc | 3

Europe is hell bent on self destruction and the US is more than happy to pour gasoline on the fire. Just when I think they will finally get their shit together, they double down on their insanity. Professor Michael Hudson stated in a recent interview, that the reason this is happening is because European politicians are the cheapest and easiest to bribe. You have to admit, it surely makes sense.

Posted by: Chicago Bob | Nov 27 2023 12:11 utc | 4

On last night’s Military Summary Channel…
“Hello my dear friends!”

…Dima claimed that when Avdeevka falls, Zelensky has the excuse to fire Zaluzhny

Posted by: Anunnaki | Nov 27 2023 12:21 utc | 5

"People go mad in herds, and recover their sense only slowly and one by one".
There is currently a madness about, it goes for climate, it goes for Covid and it goes for the two major wars, the one in Ukraine and the one in Israel.
I don't know if the stupidity has topped yet, but sooner or later the sentiment will turn.
And we will no longer accept people that glue themselves to the street, powers that force us to take untested medication and sending our kids to do the corrupt politicians dirty work.
The prime driver behind this madness is the USA, and I think they are just about to be cut down to size. Not one moment too soon.

Posted by: g wiltek | Nov 27 2023 12:21 utc | 6

Berlin, April 1945. Except on a country-wide scale.

The Cocaine Comedian of Kiev as Churchill? Naw, more like that Austrian Corporal.

“Bring me Fegelein!” As if that would help.

Posted by: OldFart | Nov 27 2023 12:23 utc | 7

I am dubious about the "1.126M total casualties" as stated in news ticker on a Ukrainian news channel. (That did happen, I have a screen shot of it.) The current Mediazona estimate for Russian KIAs is 37,052 as of 17 November, which gives a loss ratio of 30.4:1, which is _much_ higher than any loss ratio estimate I have seen, even from Russian sources. The TV figure may be killed plus all wounded, which would mean a loss ratio (for KIA) of something more like 10:1, which seems high, but more believable. Or, maybe the Ukrainian station was hacked, and that number was just made up. Either way, I wouldn't take is at face value.

Posted by: Marshall | Nov 27 2023 12:27 utc | 8

Another comprehensive and enlightening post by 'b'. Thanks.

However, I have one quibble

"Storming Russian ditches when one's rare troops have an average(!) age of 54 is impossible."

With our average 54 male I would agree but it is not always true. The Argyrapides (1), the Silver Shields, were a hypasptists (2)whom served both Phillip and Alexander. These men marched 20 miles a day then bivouacked (in the open) almost every day unless they were in a city pillaging.

They were called the 'silver shields' because they carried actual silver shields. To enlist in the Macedon army you had to be 17 and you signed up for a 17 year enlistment. Many of the Silver Shields re-enlisted 3 times meaning many of them were over 68 years old.

They never lost a battle.

I'm 61, I work in Northern Ontario in the mineral exploration business in remote dense bush much of the time. Very strenuous work. I look after myself (good weight, not too much drink, eat whole food, exercise, proper sleep) and I continually outperform younger men in their 20's just because they are massively out of shape, drink too much, stay up too late and eat shit.

George Foreman was 46 in 1995 and heavyweight champion of the whole world.

John Williams a Canadian martial arts fighter won a match when he was 70 years old (3)

The moral of my story is that if one's keeps up one's health and fitness one can engage in a young man's activity.

1.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argyraspides

2. In the Macedon phalanx the soldiers were right handed such that the vulnerable part of the phalanx was the left sides. Phillip III (Alexander the Great's father) placed his best men there to protect the left flank-these were the hypastists.

3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Williams_(mixed_martial_artist)

Posted by: canuck | Nov 27 2023 12:32 utc | 9

The murdering Few Unipolarist Collective Wastes Imperial Tyrants ‘FUCWIT’s’™️ *

They are the cause of such mass deaths, it is built into their breeding, nurtured over generations that it had become their nature. Culling hundreds of thousands - millions even. To thin the herd! Because they want ownership of the land for their own future prosperity.
Agricultural land stolen by the multinational corporations and bankers.
Transit land stolen between EurAsia and Europe and Africa for rents and tolls.
Under cover of the banderite proxy war against Russia to the Last Ukranian. That’s the objective.

The FUCWIT’s need to admit the end of their generations long dreams and to STOP the delusions of grandeur and entitlement they were brought up with by their forefathers going back dozens of generations.

A final and peaceful settlement to what is known as the Great Game / the Grand Chessboard / Mackinders World Island !
Such fantastical epic grandiose labels for simple Millenia long avarice and hegemony!.

The Borderlands can only then become ‘Normalised’ with clear delineation between the Peoples who naturally occupy them for centuries and so form the natural nations.
No need for rancour and coveting the neighbours grass (it always being greener!); Which is what has happened with the land ownership laws being changed undercover of the proxy war against Russia.

A return to order, peace and future development in the region for a multipolar world order that progresses all of humanity FAST, so they can plug into the BRI and prosper.
The European Peoples - not their Few owners - would benefit from the BRI infrastructure, imagine transit from the Atlantic coast to the South China seas in super fast rail/maglevs across Eurasia in a timescale comparable to AirTravel.

Who can possibly object? Only the losers who forever have hegemony over us … FUCWIT’s ™️ (DunGroanin 11/23) 😉

Posted by: DunGroanin | Nov 27 2023 12:49 utc | 10

And just the other thread I was asking about KIA.

Well, if the number is KIA+MIA+irrecoverable WIA…

I’d be strongly tempted to say they’re in line with other numbers.

If only KIA , too high. Ukraine might have 1.7 , 2.4 million draftable men, 20% have been spared as a mater of principle, 1.4 to 2 tops. With a normal ratio 50/50 kwia 2.3 would mean empty trenches by now

Posted by: Newbie | Nov 27 2023 12:56 utc | 11

Casualties? Its not over until its over.

There was a recent splash on Telegram showcasing a new helicopter UAV.

Now there is a video of the Aeromax Smart-Heli on youtube ==> https://youtu.be/P_G2RRRC4W0

They also make a gimbaled LWIR sensor with an integrated laser designator ==> https://en.a-v-systems.ru/page20457261.html

https://www.aeromax-group.ru/

Posted by: too scents | Nov 27 2023 13:09 utc | 12

Posted by: Marshall | Nov 27 2023 12:27 utc | 8

MediaZona probably captures the majority of RU KIA, but not all. They are a team dedicated full day to searching from all public sources. If they capture 65%, RUAF losses are 57k, if 75% then 49k, 85% is 43k. There's a high probability it's something within that range. They reported 1250 for last two weeks (625 / week). This seems to be somewhat over total average of SMO duration. There are also occasional lags and delays when they capture something, the recent two weeks include some lag from earlier weeks. But they should balance over time. This probably makes the average less than 625/week, maybe up to 100 less.

Mediazona, in collaboration with BBC News Russian service and a team of volunteers, continues gathering information on the Russian military casualties in Ukraine. The figures we provide are sourced from publicly available information, including social media posts from family members, local media coverage, and official statements from local authorities. However, these figures represent only a partial account and do not reflect the full extent of the casualties.

Already in 2022 September-October, general Kryvonos, the deputy chairman of the Ukraine's security council was on TV and told that there were "hundreds of thousands" Ukrainian casualties. Then there's the SIM cards, one mobile phone operator had lost 400k SIM cards in the central or eastern regions. Another operator apparently told there had been total loss of 1.1 million SIM cards. Since in Ukraine, people on average have 1.2 million SIM cards, it works on average to over 900k person losing SIM cards or them disappearing (meaning the SIM cards stopped communicating with the cell network). The number did not include SIM cards that had crossed the border.

It seems artillery continues to be the major source of casualties. At some point it was reported that 65% or 75% of all casualties are artillery. That's why who has best counter-artillery, wins.

Drones are another, albeit probably smaller source. Drones also contribute indirectly as artillery spotters.

Btw, general Kryvonos was again recently on TV saying that Zelensky is lying about most successes and situation on the front, quelle surprise?

https://twitter.com/amborin/status/1728805355411378419

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 27 2023 13:09 utc | 13

Zelensky will fire Zaluzny... and then, What?
Ukraine will enlarge conscription... and then, What?
Ukraine will receive F16 fighter jets...

Are they even trying?

Then Biden meets Xi in Frisco a last ditch effort to salvage relations.
And in spite of Xi's efforts to make nice, Biden blows it.
The Austin makes a speech in Ukraine about US needs to prepare for conflict with China - WTF?

It gives the impression that the west is in disarray*, maybe nearing collapse - unfortunately (?) that's not likely and they will continue digging.
(* I am thinking the scene from movie "The Thing" when alien explodes from man's body.)

Posted by: jared | Nov 27 2023 13:10 utc | 14

I suspect Zelensky will outlast Biden, in reality.
As ZH noted: It appears that Biden's handlers have given up.
Now he claims credit for atrocity in Gaza.

Posted by: jared | Nov 27 2023 13:14 utc | 15

Countries that still have a mobilisable manpower pool do not send pregnant women to battle.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 27 2023 13:22 utc | 16

I think it bears mention that the west has become increasingly fascist and (what is political term for controlling/distorting perception) - they are openly threating people for voicing "wrong" opinion and openly entrapping people and incarcerating for public protest (J6). And we take in stride. They view this as countering populism - for the good of the nation. It smacks of rampant corruption.

On the up-side: I believe that for those who are interested, we know more about how our governments function than ever before. I've read accounts of WW1 wherein it appeared that the people had no clue of what was happening nor going to happen nor how incompetent the manufactured heroes were.

Posted by: jared | Nov 27 2023 13:29 utc | 17

Posted by: canuck | Nov 27 2023 12:32 utc | 9

###############

This aging man offers you thanks for the hopeful message.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Nov 27 2023 13:32 utc | 18

@Marshall #8
Mediazona certainly does not include the 5 former Ukrainian oblasts, now part of Russia, in its numbers.
Also not known is if Mediazona includes say, Chechnya, in its coverage area.

Posted by: c1ue | Nov 27 2023 13:32 utc | 19

@ Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 27 2023 13:22 utc | 16

Apparently, the young lady was newly pregnant, if that helps.

It's a good point, however. I get the sense that the Ukraine are trying to humiliate NATO for what they have done/ are doing.

Posted by: jared | Nov 27 2023 13:32 utc | 20

General Winter has arrived in full force, lashing Ukraine (and Russia) with winds of more than 90 mph and mountains of snow.

There is a snowstorm in Ukraine , the pipes of a boiler house and a power line support in the Odessa region are broken, the roads are covered with snow, and Kiev is covered with snow by night. 400 settlements in Ukraine are without electricity.

In the evening, half a million people were left without electricity in Crimea ; repair crews began eliminating the consequences. On Tarkhankut , and on the west coast in general, there were floods, storms, coastal roads were flooded, hundreds of people were promptly evacuated, in Yevpatoria the Ministry of Emergency Situations rescued people from the roofs of houses in difficult weather conditions. A day off has been declared on the peninsula and in the Kherson region ; civilians are asked to stay at home. In the Zaporozhye region, the center of Berdyansk was flooded.

https://sonar21.com/ukraine-opts-for-more-cowbell-as-desperation-sets-in/

Posted by: ld | Nov 27 2023 13:33 utc | 21

"Zaluzny has no plans for 2024 because there is nothing he can do about the upcoming defeat of the Ukrainian army".
Zaluzny never did have any plans of his own, because everything has always been controlled by the US - intelligence, arms, training, finance.
What is true then, is that the US really has no plan (or weapons) for Ukraine going forward... and history repeats itself with another failed state littering the globe.

Posted by: North Patagonia | Nov 27 2023 13:46 utc | 22

(* I am thinking the scene from movie "The Thing" when alien explodes from man's body.)

Posted by: jared | Nov 27 2023 13:10 utc | 14

I think you mean, 'Alien" (1979), starring Sigourney Weaver.

Posted by: canuck | Nov 27 2023 13:49 utc | 23


I think the 1+ million KIA and MIA number is right. This is the cost of thinking you can win a war by lying, telling a better story, and make the other side evil. This is the cost Z, NATO, the US and Britain put on the Ukrainian and European people. A million lives, millions of refugees, and a government that has depopulated their own country so the US (banks and financial sectors) can control commodity prices. The Heart of Darkness, first discovered by the British of themselves, we inherited too. Comes from believing the Pentateuch is the way to live, the laws and social mores of the Ptolemaic Dynasty including slavery and conquests.

Posted by: JimG | Nov 27 2023 13:52 utc | 24

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🔎 On the Situation in #Avdeyevka Sector⚡️

🔹1. We had success in the industrial zone (Promka - industrial zone of the colony), which is to the right of the well-known AFU checkpoint No. 1 on the Ring Road towards #Yasinovataya. Well done, we took a serious fortification, from where a lot of things flew at #Donetsk.

🔹2. If we take the Coke Plant, we can send warm greetings to #Avdeyevka. To keep people there for the APU would simply mean killing personnel. But they do not care about. The enemy did the same in #Bakhmut, sending people to slaughter in packs. By the way, they had a 50,000 strong group there, and Wagner with 25-30 thousand fighters worked against them.

🔹3. Basic military truth: if you find yourself in a semicircle, take the people away. No, they clung to the “#Bakhmut fortress”, now - to the “#Avdeyevka fortress”. Idiocy! When you lose serious fortifications, you need to retreat, straightening the line.

🔹4. Do not run ahead of the locomotive. The enemy is still clinging to the Coke Plant and wants to fight for it, and we have made only two serious steps so far to master the #Avdeyevka fortification:

▪️(a) In the first days of the offensive we caught hold of #Berdychi and passed a little to the right, which was very good. From the other flank took "Tsarskaya Okhota", but we were knocked out of there. The same thing, we had to leave #Berdychi. The success of the first days could not be consolidated and developed.

▪️b) Promka - the second step. There is already a trench + dump (#Slagheap) - the dominant height above Coke Plant and most of #Avdeyevka. Now it is difficult to get the artillery to the dump, and there are "eyes", and the enemy at Coke is fierce.

🔹5. After taking the Coke Plant, they have to leave #Avdeyevka. The next step is to close the ring and crimp it.

🔹6. It is difficult with #Avdeyevka, because the fortifications and underground communications of the enemy were built by Kiev Metro Construction. If we knock the AFU out of there, it will be the most serious success for the time of the SMO after #Mariupol. There is no population left in #Avdeyevka. There are maybe a thousand grandmothers for a 30,000-strong town.

📌 7. After taking #Avdeyevka up to #Kramatorsk, the enemy has virtually no serious fortifications. In the #Slavyansk - #Kramatorsk agglomeration there is a defence line with an airfield, headquarters, bunkers, built since 2014. But up to #Kramatorsk from #Avdeyevka there are no serious Ukrops with underground passages so that they can settle in.


https://t.me/sitreports/18669

Posted by: Down South | Nov 27 2023 13:55 utc | 25

Posted by: canuck | Nov 27 2023 12:32 utc | 9

###############

This aging man offers you thanks for the hopeful message.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Nov 27 2023 13:32 utc | 18

“We don’t grow older, we grow riper.” ~Pablo Picasso

On the other hand, I have always been quick always beating my sons in short (50 meters) races. I hadn't
raced them for 15 years or so. My 30 year old son challenged me to a race last summer-I lost by 5 meters.

Oh well....

Posted by: drew currah | Nov 27 2023 13:55 utc | 26

The main conflict between the Office of the President and Zaluzhny is that Zelensky demands a new counter-offensive in the spring of 2024, and the Commander-in-Chief considers this step suicide for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and insists on defense.

That is why Bezuglaya accused Zaluzhny of lacking a plan, and Zelensky’s statements that Ukraine has a plan to conduct military operations for the next year are a new counter-offensive.

“And we have a plan for next year. Yes, we have a plan for next year, we are trying to plan it, but I will not share,” Zelensky said at the Reuters Next conference.


https://t.me/rezident_ua/20616
Our sources in the General Staff said that Zaluzhny considers it important for Ukraine to build its own line of defense, as the enemy did. Bankova considers such a step a death sentence for Zelensky’s peace formula and Western support, which is not possible without active offensive actions.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/20619
Our source in the OP said that the SBU sent an urgent report to Bankova about the reaction of units at the front and in the body to Bezuglaya’s statement about Zaluzhny’s resignation.

The military is ready to oppose the authorities if he tries to dismiss the Commander-in-Chief, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are completely on the side of Zaluzhny in the conflict with Zelensky.


https://t.me/rezident_ua/20620


Posted by: Down South | Nov 27 2023 14:02 utc | 27

when will victoria nuland hang?

Posted by: timothy murray | Nov 27 2023 14:13 utc | 28

Similar but no - the affect in the movie The Thing, 1982 was slightly different.
In that the "infected" person suddenly becomes the alien.
It's now become common scene. I cant find the clip.
It was a good movie in terms of plot: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0084787/

Posted by: jared | Nov 27 2023 14:13 utc | 29

Posted by: North Patagonia | Nov 27 2023 13:46 utc | 22

That is most likely what will happen. And if this situation maintains for several years, the likelihood of splintering parts from north-east, eastern and some central parts of Ukraine will only increase. By splintering meaning they will cooperate with RUAF and drift away from Kiev.

Of course, SBU is still a formidable weapon of terror, which may be enough to prevent it. But preventing that path also ensures the path to de-facto failed state and de-population of the areas. Hence, the "neutral buffer zone" is created without any negotiated input between Russia and USA.

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 27 2023 14:14 utc | 30

Oops... I meant that in reply to

@ Posted by: canuck | Nov 27 2023 13:49 utc | 23

Posted by: jared | Nov 27 2023 14:15 utc | 31

There was an article a few months ago about how the west is losing its grip on resources worldwide (albeit bribing and threatening to keep what it can), so that explains in a way why they are so desperate to escalate.
As many bar patrons here say, its not a money issue (west can print), its the everything else that matters.

And one has to look at how some states, the baltics for example among others, turn overly fascist because most probably, they were offered a piece of the carved up russia pie. They need the everything else.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Nov 27 2023 14:22 utc | 32

I predicted months ago that Zelensky will not be able to mark the 10th anniversary of the Maidan coup as president. I still hold that scenario as likely. But anything could happen.

Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 27 2023 14:23 utc | 33

@g wiltek | Nov 27 2023 12:21 utc | 6

Exactly so on the situation. I hope you are right on the future.

Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 27 2023 14:26 utc | 34

After the Zaluzhny and Arakhamia revelations we need no more Ukrainian disclosures before this conflict can be solved:

- what happened at the eve of the war on the Ukrainian side? How serious were the plans for attacking the Donbass? Why did they increase the shelling. And what did they thing of Russia's recognition of the Donbass republics?

- What happened exactly at Bucha? How representative is that for the other regions that Ukraine recovered? What about the Ukrainian liquidation of "traitors"?

Posted by: Wim | Nov 27 2023 14:27 utc | 35

X Twitter is now massively censoring posts for Palestine or anti Zionism.

Musk met with Netanyahu a few hours ago.

I wonder if the censorship will extend to other US proxy wars, aka Ukraine and Taiwan?

I'm blocked from posting first time ever. My acct is of little notice so I suspect this is systemwide.


Might be lifted in 12 hours. For posting about Palestine genocide.

Posted by: Laura Roslin | Nov 27 2023 14:35 utc | 36

Re: Posted by: g wiltek | Nov 27 2023 12:21 utc | 6

"People go mad in herds, and recover their sense only slowly and one by one". There is currently a madness about, it goes for climate, it goes for Covid and it goes for the two major wars, the one in Ukraine and the one in Israel. I don't know if the stupidity has topped yet, but sooner or later the sentiment will turn. And we will no longer accept people that glue themselves to the street, powers that force us to take untested medication and sending our kids to do the corrupt politicians dirty work. The prime driver behind this madness is the USA, and I think they are just about to be cut down to size. Not one moment too soon.

You ain't seen nothing yet - it most certainly has not peaked.

2024 is going to be WILD. WILD. WILD. WILD.

Maybe things will settle down in 2025 - we can only hope - but not a chance they do before then.

Posted by: Julian | Nov 27 2023 14:39 utc | 37

"Ukraine will become a Nato member subject to reforms after the war, says secretary general
Ukraine will become a member of Nato, the military alliance’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has said.

Allies agree that Ukraine will become a member of Nato. At [the Nato-Ukraine] meeting, we will agree recommendations for Ukrainians … reforms, as we continue to support Kiev on this path to Nato membership."


They can't even get into the EU!!!!

Posted by: KingCobra | Nov 27 2023 14:46 utc | 38

@canuck #9
It is certainly possible for a 50+ person to be physically fit - but it is not possible for the 50+ person to be at the same physical peak as his 20 year old self.
Nor are 50+ year olds ever going to be the same average physical capability, as a demographic class, as 20 year olds.
A better question would be: you have been working in physical jobs your whole life by your own description.
How many of your co-workers are still doing this type of work at your present ages?
How many are disabled due to injuries from repetitive stress, accidents etc?
As for the Silver Shields: I think you confuse the original unit designation under Alexander with the later group (many of which were the same people) which were far closer to NCOs and officers than regular fighting soldiers. They did perform duties like bodyguard or security but were definitely not front line fighting troops in their post-Alexander form.

Posted by: c1ue | Nov 27 2023 14:52 utc | 39

Some ministers in the Finnish government are complaining that they first learn about the decisions with regard to the "border crisis" with Russia from the media. The Swedish-speaking minister of education, who used to be justice minister in the former government, finds it concerning that some of her colleagues state in the media unequivocally that the decisions do not need to comply with the rule of law.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Nov 27 2023 14:54 utc | 40

I see there is some discussion about the fitness level of the 43+ Ukrainian males. What about their morale / motivational levels?

If you search recent Jimmy Dore videos, you will find one where he shows a clip of a Ukrainian girl singing patriotic songs to a bunch of new, less-than-pumped-up middle-aged recruits. Judge for yourself.

Posted by: scepticalSOB | Nov 27 2023 14:55 utc | 41

Any Ukrainian politician or general with IQ above room temperature has figured out the gravy train is over. The free lunch is over. Presumably the family relocated abroad months ago. Nothing left to pick up but loose change. Time to pocket all the ill-gotten gains and skip town.

Ukrainian pols and generals were already a team of losers and flakes. What remains are the dregs. Close the show. Fold the tent.

Posted by: oldhippie | Nov 27 2023 14:56 utc | 42

A little off topic but War is War:
Crimea and Istanbul earlier, got hit with Weather weapons, courtesy of Nato { Norway's Haarp ? }, which trashed the coastline in the past 2 days. Maybe BiBi or and Zelensky called for reinforcements, in order to stop the protests and to cause pain etc. We got hit with about a Cat. 1 Tropical storm with gusts of 80 to 100 kph which come real close to Hurricane force winds - at the end of November ?! I hope Russia gets with the program and calls them out - or more.

Posted by: GMC | Nov 27 2023 15:00 utc | 43

Re: Posted by: GMC | Nov 27 2023 15:00 utc | 43

I hope Russia gets with the program and calls them out - or more.


LOL. Calls who out? Total fantasies - no one can control the weather.

If the Russians can control the weather - why did Europe have no winter a year ago?

Posted by: Julian | Nov 27 2023 15:03 utc | 44

Posted by: jared | Nov 27 2023 14:13 utc | 29

"Alien's most infamous scene is the extraordinary moment where the alien creature bursts out of John Hurt's stomach, and the grotesque moment that sets the whole story for the sci-fi epic has a bizarre link to the town of Slough. The scene sees the crew of the ship spattered in a mix of blood and guts.Sep 19, 2020"

Here is the scene itself.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3T883Iqt8Y

Posted by: canuck | Nov 27 2023 15:03 utc | 45

Posted by: jared | Nov 27 2023 14:13 utc | 29

You are mistaken. That's OK. I've seen both versions of The Bad News Bears (1976, age 12; 2005, age 45) and years later ascribed a MEMORABLE QUOTE, "There's no crying in baseball," to the 1976 script. I was convinced until I watched the original in its entirety again.

The Blob (1958, 1988) and The Thing (From Another World, 1951; 1982; 2011) is a totalizing horror story in which the monster predator consumes, incorporates, every living thing within its reach. I've seen 1951 and 1982. The former grows into a gargantuan, uniform single-cell mass; the latter mutates into a grotesque assemblage of its victims' features, a figurative Swiss Army knife or "shape-shifter".

Ridley Scott's epic is all about parturition and immortality through better chemistry. And that's ironic. I recently discovered a whole ass YouTube subculture devoted to Alien director's notes and production values.

Posted by: sln2002 | Nov 27 2023 15:04 utc | 46

and Freud wept over every one.

Posted by: sln2002 | Nov 27 2023 15:07 utc | 47

Musk met with Netanyahu a few hours ago..

Posted by: Laura Roslin | Nov 27 2023 14:35 utc | 36

Obstruction of justice and foreign election interference. No doubt the somewhat older ADL affair plays a role here.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Nov 27 2023 15:08 utc | 48

@canuck #9
It is certainly possible for a 50+ person to be physically fit - but it is not possible for the 50+ person to be at the same physical peak as his 20 year old self.
Nor are 50+ year olds ever going to be the same average physical capability, as a demographic class, as 20 year olds.
A better question would be: you have been working in physical jobs your whole life by your own description.
How many of your co-workers are still doing this type of work at your present ages?
How many are disabled due to injuries from repetitive stress, accidents etc?
As for the Silver Shields: I think you confuse the original unit designation under Alexander with the later group (many of which were the same people) which were far closer to NCOs and officers than regular fighting soldiers. They did perform duties like bodyguard or security but were definitely not front line fighting troops in their post-Alexander form.

Posted by: c1ue | Nov 27 2023 14:52 utc | 39

I disagree: The Silver Shields were old but they were most feared soldiers of the time-I suggest you do more research on the topic-see below.

"Wars of the Diadochi
After the death of Alexander in 323 BC, the Silver Shields followed Eumenes. They were veterans, and although most of them were over sixty, they were feared and revered due to their battle skills and experience. At the Battle of Gabiene in 316 BC, they settled with Antigonus I Monophthalmus after he managed to take possession of their baggage train (consisting of their families and the result of forty years of plunder). One of their commanders, Teutamus, negotiated with Antigonus to obtain the return of their possessions, but in exchange delivered their general Eumenes to him.

Antigonus soon broke up the corps, finding it too turbulent to manage, also executing their other commander, Antigenes. Over the course of the Wars of the Diadochi, Antigonus had developed a severe hatred of the veteran unit due to almost dying in a mutiny caused by them, and also being crushed in battle by them multiple times. [2] He sent them to Sibyrtius, the Macedonian satrap of Arachosia, with the order to dispatch them by small groups of two or three to dangerous missions so that their numbers would rapidly dwindle. However, others may have been retired to live in Macedonian settlements in Asia.

Polyaenus write that Antigonus liberally rewarded the Argyraspides who brought him Eumenes as prisoner. But, in order to protect himself from future acts against him, he ordered a thousand of the Argyraspides to serve under Sibyrtius, while he isolated others by having them remain in garrisons in remote, uncultivated countries, eventually managing to get rid of them all this way.[3]

Plutarch wrote that after Antigonus killed Eumenes, he sent the Argyraspides to Sibyrtius and ordered him to destroy them in every possible way.[4]:"

https://www.warhistoryonline.com/ancient-history/alexander-greats-elite-hand-picked-expert-troops-silver-shields.html

Posted by: canuck | Nov 27 2023 15:13 utc | 49

@GMC | Nov 27 2023 15:00 utc | 43

Crimea and Istanbul earlier, got hit with Weather weapons, courtesy of Nato { Norway's Haarp ? }
Remember to take your meds.

Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 27 2023 15:15 utc | 50

Cancel posted at #9:

Your example is the miniscule exception that proves the rule that " Younger is better!"

Ukraine does not have access to a corps of self-selected dedicated 17 year recruits committed to self care and training. Rather, they must draft mostly couch potatoes who could run 10 yards before collapse!

Posted by: Garry Owen | Nov 27 2023 15:23 utc | 51


@canuck #9
It is certainly possible for a 50+ person to be physically fit - but it is not possible for the 50+ person to be at the same physical peak as his 20 year old self.

Not true. I was at my peak at 55 as measured by strength and endurance. I was slightly lacking in speed and agility, and clearly lacking in recovery. This is rare I admit. Now at 68 I'm about the same as at my 15, but clearly stronger still.

Posted by: Catilina | Nov 27 2023 15:28 utc | 52

Posted by: canuck | Nov 27 2023 12:32 utc | 9

Truth to this, but it's the exception not the rule. You're gonna want guys in their 20s to fight a war.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Nov 27 2023 15:45 utc | 53

@ Posted by: sln2002 | Nov 27 2023 15:04 utc | 46

OK, I did not recall that Alien predated The Thing (as movies) - they are both good.

But the reason that I refer to The Thing is not the operating table scene, but there is a scene on a bench where one of the people is put under stress and this cause the create to burst-out and reveal itself (it's not the operating table scene / I cant find). And this is what I think is happening with western governments - the stress is causing them to reveal themselves as what they are.

I sometimes worry that the TPTB will stealth edit or memory-hole entire movies - being an aging conspiracy theorist.

Posted by: jared | Nov 27 2023 15:48 utc | 54

The 1.1 million figure for UKR losses is considerably higher than can be inferred from even Russian military reports. However:

1. Russian figures for UKR losses are drawn largely from the battle fronts. They have not, to my knowledge, included losses due to missile and longer range drone strikes. The targets are typically military facilities and if UKR's boasts about AD interception rates are as fraudulent as one suspects, there could be far more successful strikes, on manned facilities, with potentially dozens of casualties each time.

2. Russian battlefront numbers may well be conservative--they may limit themselves to numbers they can confidently confirm. They may also systematically round these down, so as to be less likely to underestimate the forces remaining.

3. UKR on UKR deaths: Almost every week we hear reports of UKR forces killed by their own--while attempting to surrender, or retreat, or refusing to fight, or in fights within or between units. There are also reports of foreign mercenaries being stationed behind the lines, along with Right Sector, etc., as punishers.

Posted by: Paul Damascene | Nov 27 2023 15:49 utc | 55

when will victoria nuland hang?

Posted by: timothy murray | Nov 27 2023 14:13 utc | 28

I think atavistic biblical thinking creeps like this gal and her husband really deserve ancient style deaths. Maybe a stoning by a crowd of homeless people in the US. Throw the C Suite of every finance house in New York in there with them.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Nov 27 2023 15:53 utc | 56

Boy the guy boasting about how fit he is at 60 should save it for the Filipina Tim's workers half his age he's hustling at Reggie's Place on Queen. Blah blah. If the general population was stronger at 60 than 30 they sure could have used that info during Vietnam 😂

Posted by: Pym of Nantucket | Nov 27 2023 15:56 utc | 57

"There's no crying in baseball"

Posted by: sln2002 | Nov 27 2023 15:04 utc | 46

Ya, not BNBears, 20 years later, Tom Hanks in A League of Their Own.

A troubling thought is that half of everything remembered is just as misplaced.

Posted by: Arrnon | Nov 27 2023 15:56 utc | 58

Posted by: canuck | Nov 27 2023 12:32 utc | 9


I'm a 65 year old retired carpenter. I'm in excellent physical condition I bench my weight and ride the Hasting Highlands hilly hundred every fall although admittedly I rode the 80km gravel road route this year.

I could probably storm a trenchline but there better be a ton of advil, ice and bag of weed waiting for me when I'm done ... also I'll need a massage and a month of psyio before I try it again ... of course only after consulting my cardiologist to make sure my arythmia isn't acting up

Posted by: HB_Norica | Nov 27 2023 15:58 utc | 59


"There is currently a madness about, it goes for climate, it goes for Covid and it goes for the two major wars, the one in Ukraine and the one in Israel."

I don't know if the stupidity has stopped yet, but sooner or later the sentiment will turn."

Posted by: g wiltek | Nov 27 2023 12:21 utc | 6

I'm not sure. Sentiment turning on the Israeli war is already happening. Washington seems to be backpedalling in response. But at least in Europe I believe public sentiment on the Russian war is locked in and will remain so. The Russians are the enemy and in future we must ensure we can defend ourselves against them.

The latest Ramstein showed that that's the way public opinion will be steered. "Freezing Winds" shows the same.

https://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/news-and-latest-activity/news/2023/november/21/231121-freezing-winds-in-finland

We are gearing up for Cold War II after Ukraine. The Scholz/ Stoltenberg plans for a Rapid Response force of 300,000 men, though impracticable at least in the short term, showed that some time ago. The EU has always wanted to develop military force to match its commercial weight and the UK, "Brexit" or no, intends to be part of that. We want our share of the resultant defence projects.

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-munich-security-conference

Whether it will work depends on the Russians.

Remnant Ukraine will be neutralised. We don't yet know how but the Russians can't afford to leave that remnant as a NATO spearhead and after all this they're unlikely to do so. After that the Russians will return their attention to their late 2021 European security demands.

Those Russian European security demands are not compatible with the European plans for further NATO pressure on Russia. If the Russians decide that that NATO pressure is unacceptable they can enforce their security demands by cutting off supplies to Europe.

So far the damage done to the European economy by the EU/UK sanctions packages has been self-inflicted. The sanctions were tailored to hurt the Russians to the maximum without damaging us too much.

That didn't work and the European economy has already been damaged. Further reduction in supplies from Russia would damage us considerably more. If the Russians decided on insisting on their 2021 European security demands that would severely reduce the ability of MATO to finance the projected Cold War 11.

I don't see the European politicians considering this possibility. The "current madness" - and it is no exaggeration to call it just that - could in that event backfire on us severely. The European economy is still dependent on those Russian supplies.

Posted by: English Outsider | Nov 27 2023 16:09 utc | 60

"The Thing", "The Blob", and "Invasion of the Body Snatchers" were all covert anti-communist programming, along with a great deal of other entertainment programs of the period. "Beware of the communist collective!" and "Be suspicious of your very own neighbor as he could become infected with communist ideals and then go about turning the whole town into enemies of mom, apple pie, and Chevrolet!"

Hide the propaganda and jingoism in metaphor. It worked great, and few of those brainwashed by the anti-communist propaganda of the second half of last century ever suspected they were programmed like a toy robot even to this day.

Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 27 2023 16:12 utc | 61

yeah hollywood produced a lot of crap like that in the 50's.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Nov 27 2023 16:24 utc | 62

i'm old as dirt, i'm in pretty good shape for my age, in some respects. I can do 11 chinups. i would not be at all confident in my ability to storm a trench as effectively as a 20 year old could.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Nov 27 2023 16:27 utc | 63

@ Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 27 2023 16:12 utc | 61

I am skeptical about that - even if that was there intention (and there was definitely a lot of fear mongering in the 50's), we get from "art" what we are disposed to see even if the artist never intended.

But as example of memory-holing, I submit "Iron Giant". An excellent animated movie with a good bit of adult irony (targeting the "red scare" folks), was made to disappear. Must see for all children (of which I are one, at times).

Posted by: jared | Nov 27 2023 16:29 utc | 64

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Nov 27 2023 15:53 utc | 56

she'll probably die in bed, surrounded by scheming heirs like Diane Feinstein, and eulogized like "i think it was worth starving half a million Iraqi kids to death for a transient political advantage" Madeleine Albright. that's how things unfold in the glorious US paradise.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Nov 27 2023 16:30 utc | 65

@ Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 27 2023 16:12 utc | 61

I think the theme of those (50's) movies was more like "Trust the government to know what to do and to keep you safe." That can be applied in various ways.

The Thing was more humanistic - their instinct may have been to kill one another but by resisting that urge they over-came as a group.

Now Star Trek did put communism in a bad light, in spite of it's pretense of inclusiveness.

Posted by: jared | Nov 27 2023 16:36 utc | 66

when will victoria nuland hang?

Posted by: timothy murray | Nov 27 2023 14:13 utc | 28

I think atavistic biblical thinking creeps like this gal and her husband really deserve ancient style deaths. Maybe a stoning by a crowd of homeless people in the US. Throw the C Suite of every finance house in New York in there with them.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Nov 27 2023 15:53 utc | 56

How about using more civilized and western methods like the one Qaddafi went "through"? Hanging is so Iraq War and brutal.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Nov 27 2023 16:36 utc | 67

I'll repeat myself.

Haven't seen any mangled survivors around, none!

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Nov 27 2023 16:37 utc | 68

Posted by: jared | Nov 27 2023 16:29 utc | 64

i think he was correct about Body Snatchers and the Thing, not sure about the blob. Hollywood has always been a propaganda mill.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Nov 27 2023 16:38 utc | 69

Or even more humane: hellfire missiles tested by the most humane army in the world on their OWN CITIZENS.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Nov 27 2023 16:39 utc | 70

@canuck #9
It is certainly possible for a 50+ person to be physically fit - but it is not possible for the 50+ person to be at the same physical peak as his 20 year old self.
Not true. I was at my peak at 55 as measured by strength and endurance. I was slightly lacking in speed and agility, and clearly lacking in recovery. This is rare I admit. Now at 68 I'm about the same as at my 15, but clearly stronger still.

Posted by: Catilina | Nov 27 2023 15:28 utc | 52

Yes I have got stronger as well. When I was 24 I did 38 push ups (real push ups ) my new record is 41 I did two months ago.

I think what the other guy meant was that at 20 everything being equal you are stronger than 61; however, scientifically speaking, everything being equal, potential male strength is in the 35 th year.

Posted by: canuck | Nov 27 2023 16:44 utc | 71

Or even more humane: hellfire missiles tested by the most humane army in the world on their OWN CITIZENS.
Posted by: Jonathan W | Nov 27 2023 16:39 utc | 70

Getting closer. Put them in a car and tell the to run for it. Then hit it with the 'scythe blade' Hellfire.

Posted by: JohninMK | Nov 27 2023 16:50 utc | 72

That and a Ukrainian TV news show stated 1.126M total casualties the other day.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Nov 27 2023 11:45 utc | 1

Here it is:

https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2023/11/i-dont-think-it-was-mistake.html?m=1

Martyanov comments.

Posted by: Naive | Nov 27 2023 16:52 utc | 73

Posted by: canuck | Nov 27 2023 16:44 utc | 71

i dont think anybody is at their physical peak at 60, or could be. try sprinting. you don't see any 50 year olds at the top in big pro sports, and precious few 40+. Bernard Hopkins may be the single exception. none of the 40 year olds are at their physical peaks, they just play less demanding positions. Foreman wasn't at his physical peak when he knocked out Moorer, and he wasn't the best heavyweight boxer at that time, nor was the guy he beat.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Nov 27 2023 16:53 utc | 74

Well I have commented here and elsewhere that IMO the UAF is losing [on average but maybe less just now] roughly 1,000 men per day KIA, WIA and Mia - with irrecoverable losses running higher than normal at over 50% - normal losses might be 25% KIA/MIA and a third of the 75% WIA unable to return to duty. This gives c 300,000 irrecoverable losses so far with maybe another 150,000 in hospital. I think this estimate is good but obviously others have different views - including one ex-bar fly who seemed to think I was a "concern troll" for actually disagreeing with him/her/they/xe whatever.

Anyway my estimate is broad brush but roughly accords with the claimed casualties of the Russian MOD and various fragments of information "leaked" by the Ukes. It also makes sense on a macro sort of level. It implies that there is a lot of men left in the UAF but they have been badly handled. I would say combat units are at half strength on average and the LOC tail is increasingly being used to fill the line. Still maybe, 600K to 700K soldiers of which maybe 200K in combat units. It does not mean that the guys (and alas gals) left are any good, trained, armed or supplied - or could do 50 push ups. Clearly this is an end game scenario of the UAF, but short of a sudden collapse, there looks to be a lot of fighting and dying still to do.

I have been reading (again) about the downfall of Germany in WW2 and this looks a bit like 1944 on the same time frame - albeit Ukraine has only one front and (well maybe) powerful allies. Still 9th May 2024 might be a target date for some to bring the war to a close. But in that war German casualties were enourmous in the last 6 months, as their out matched forces were totally overwhelmed. Despite high losses so far,we might have seen the start of UAF casulaties and by no means the worst of what is now likely to happen.

Posted by: marcjf | Nov 27 2023 16:56 utc | 75

Meh , Ukraine finished Poland had its hand up for over a year to be next . Wonder if the people's russophobia has been cured slightly watching events next door.

Posted by: Hankster | Nov 27 2023 16:58 utc | 76

The key for the Ukies in 2024 is if their masters want a frozen conflict. For that to have a chance, the Ukies will need to withdraw behind the Dnieper, saving as much of their men and equipment as possible, while also expanding the draft to its so far exempt college attendees. There currently is no operational reserve, only a plethora of broken units that are being shuffled around until their manpower is decimated and they cease to exist. IMO, the 1.1 million casualties is very plausible. As for the age of Ukie grunts, there are a few videos that show how well those middle-aged men fare, and it's not very well. The one basic asset the young have over the aged is agility: One must be agile to get in and out of an APC of any type; wriggling through very narrow trenches and dugouts; rising and firing or dashing into the open to fire an RPG or AT weapon. Remember, these soldiers aren't in gym shorts and sneakers; they're wearing 20+ pounds of gear outside of their uniform and wearing combat boots. Yeah, I'm 68 and still a very good shot, but I can't move fast at all, nor am I very agile. And watching drones chasing small groups of soldiers and eliminating them tells me I wouldn't want any part of that regardless which side I'm on.

Posted by: karlof1 | Nov 27 2023 16:59 utc | 77

Best shape of my life . I can do 6 margaritas before breakfast and a short swim before retiring back onto the sun lounge ready for a few rounds with heavy weight black russians. Nanna naps are catching up though

Posted by: Hankster | Nov 27 2023 17:02 utc | 78

I wonder if the censorship will extend to other US proxy wars, aka Ukraine and Taiwan.
Posted by: Laura Roslin | Nov 27 2023 14:35 utc | 36

I was never on Twitter, but I used to get my news from Facebook. I posted about Donbass all the time, including posting the photo of the Azov unit with the NATO and swastika flags.

In 2017, after Trump won the election and the Democrats went crazy, they hauled Zuckerberg, and the heads of Twitter, Google, and YouTube in front of Congress, and openly threatened them unless they massively censored the people using their social media platforms.

The Democrats blamed social media corporations for their loss, claiming that Russia gave information to the American voting public that caused them to not vote for Hillary Clinton.
In other words, the Democrats openly push for an uninformed voting public.
And the threats worked. The social media companies set up, with the help of the CIA, algorhythms to catch Forbidden Truths, along with the banning of troublesome posters, who spread actual news horizontally among the people.
In late 2017, a Donbass group I belonged to was wiped off the platform, and I was put into Facebook jail for sharing that NATO/Azov photo, as were many other people I knew. Showing photos of injured children was not allowed.
They openly complained that in the old days (such as WW1, for instance, and up until the internet), the ruling class controlled the information given to the people. It came top down, through the newspapers, then radio and TV, into each house or car. The recipients had no way of checking the "news", or of knowing how the rest of the public responded to it, except for Letters To The Editor, which were also filtered, and came much later after the "news" was spread.

Social media makes it possible for news to spread horizontally, instead of top down, for people to fact check, and for people to know how their peers react to the propaganda being pushed by msm. Two heads are better than one, and millions of heads are better than top down propaganda spread to people in isolation.

That is why they censor and ban, and that is why they are pushing for even more draconian measures to stop the flow of uncensored information.

Posted by: wagelaborer | Nov 27 2023 17:08 utc | 79

few days qgo I posted an MoD summary I think it was for period 18-24 Nov... adding up Ukr losses was well over 4000.
Forget how many Ukr refugees of conscriptional age have left for the west... tens tens of thousands and so far none seem to be returning as governments will not allow ...I cannot see women of cons ritional age being agreed to sent back? Although UNHCR refugee portal does seem to have statistics about returnees. and often we get reports of men trying to escape over Ukr borders..... a post yesterday about two nabbed for the military.. one has severe mental problems the other metal plates in his back. I suppose the first could cook.. the second fly a drone....etc

Posted by: Jo | Nov 27 2023 17:16 utc | 80

I'm not sure as to the meaning of Invasion of the Body Snatchers. Don Siegal, the director, was a liberal in his early days (he later directed Dirty Harry), and Body Snatchers has often been interpreted as a warning against McCarthyism. But it is ambiguous, and, as you say, it could also ne a red scare film.

High Noon suffers the same ambiguity: is Gary Cooper standing up to McCarthyites - or commies? Such is the fate of political parables in Hollywood.

Posted by: @ William Gruff | Nov 27 2023 17:30 utc | 81

Posted by: canuck | Nov 27 2023 16:44 utc | 71

i dont think anybody is at their physical peak at 60, or could be. try sprinting. you don't see any 50 year olds at the top in big pro sports, and precious few 40+. Bernard Hopkins may be the single exception. none of the 40 year olds are at their physical peaks, they just play less demanding positions. Foreman wasn't at his physical peak when he knocked out Moorer, and he wasn't the best heavyweight boxer at that time, nor was the guy he beat.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Nov 27 2023 16:53 utc | 74

This is exact point I am making and this is my last note on the subject.

The Silver Shields were mostly over 60 years of age and they were the best storm troopers in the known world in the 4th and 3rd centuries.. That is not me talking that is Plutarch, Diodorus inter alia.

These Silver Shields they could do that is because they were hand picked by Phillip III at a young age , trained all the time, they marched 20 miles everyday, they bivouacked, been in countless battles as of course experience is necessary for any great soldier.

They never lost a battle.

The only reason they were broken up was because their greed. In the Diadochi fight after Alexander's death they were recruited by Eumenes , Alexander's personal secretary and in the fight against Antigonus:

"In the late summer of 316 BC, Antigonus moved southward again in the hope of bringing Eumenes to battle and ending the war quickly. Eventually, the two armies met in southern Media and fought the indecisive Battle of Paraitakene.[16] Antigonus, whose casualties were more numerous, force marched his army to safety the next night.[17] During the winter of 316-315 BC, Antigonus tried to surprise Eumenes in Persis by marching his army across a desert and catching his enemy off guard; unfortunately, he was observed by some locals who reported it to his opponents.[18] A few days later both armies drew up for battle. The Battle of Gabiene was as indecisive as the previous battle at Parataikene.[19] According to Plutarch and Diodorus, Eumenes had won the battle but lost control of his army's baggage camp thanks to his ally Peucestas' duplicity or incompetence. In addition to all the loot of the Silver Shields (treasure accumulated over 30 years of successful warfare including gold, silver, gems and other booty), the soldiers' women and children were taken, and Eumenes' army wished to negotiate their return.

Teutamus, one of their commanders, sent the request to Antigonus, who responded by demanding they give him Eumenes. The Silver Shields complied, arrested Eumenes and his officers, and handed them over.[20] The war was thus at an end. Eumenes was placed under guard while Antigonus held a council to ponder his fate. Antigonus, supported by his son Demetrius, was disinclined to kill Eumenes, but most of the council insisted that he execute Eumenes and so it was decided.[21]"

One thing I messed up the Silver Shields were on the RIGHT side- not the left of the phalanx- as the phalanx had no shields on the right as they were all right handed.

Posted by: canuck | Nov 27 2023 17:32 utc | 82

The above comment was addressed to William - not written by him!

Posted by: Alex Cox | Nov 27 2023 17:32 utc | 83

X Twitter is now massively censoring posts for Palestine or anti Zionism.

Musk met with Netanyahu a few hours ago.

I wonder if the censorship will extend to other US proxy wars, aka Ukraine and Taiwan?

I'm blocked from posting first time ever. My acct is of little notice so I suspect this is systemwide.


Might be lifted in 12 hours. For posting about Palestine genocide.

Posted by: Laura Roslin | Nov 27 2023 14:35 utc | 36
https://x.com/caitoz/status/1729109862037225545?s=20

I am not sure what does X censor now, I follow several individual like Caitlyn, and I do not see problems. Of course, "algotithms" ply a lot of opposite views to my feed, but it is OK.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Nov 27 2023 17:35 utc | 84

Male life expectancy in Ukraine in 2021 65 years. So, men >50 are not likely to be much use at the front in my opinion.

Posted by: the pessimist | Nov 27 2023 17:35 utc | 85

"Ukrainian pols and generals were already a team of losers and flakes. What remains are the dregs. Close the show. Fold the tent."

Posted by: oldhippie | Nov 27 2023 14:56 utc | 42

Yeah, thinking that Zaluzny is somehow "good" or knows more than Zelensky, that he would make a good replacement as I hear over and over in MSM, is stupid.

What kind of military leader - and military code - condones the murdering of .5m soldiers? That he even knows anything about his work - the military - is doubtful. One doesn't have to be a professional soldier to see that. And eEactly how come BoJo and Austin and Milley are not every bit as (ir)responsible as Zaluzny?

Looking at western "leaders" and their military cadre, yeeesh, Biden and Austin, the Brits, the Germans, yadda yadda yadda.

THEY ARE ALL IN ON THE GRIFT. THEY HAVE NO OTHER SKILL THAN PERSONAL GREED. And they will keep going until someone stops them.

As for when does Nuland hang, well, my preference would be for breaking on the wheel. This, of course, is why the PTBs are so concerned about any sort of populist pushback: there needs to be an "authority" to take police power from this psychopathic class. Whatever that new authority, it has to be institutionalized to oppose the PTBs or they will claim everything. There is no accountability (to who) so why not?

Posted by: oracle | Nov 27 2023 17:37 utc | 86

jared @64: "I am skeptical about that..."

"It's easier to fool people than it is to convince them that they have been fooled." – Mark Twain.

Think about any typical individual who considers themselves smarter than average (that's most people, sadly) who have held an opinion as long as they can remember. They feel certain they had arrived at that opinion through their superior intellect. Now consider them confronting the fact that cherished opinion was not their own creation but rather crafted by programmers and carefully planted in the head of the programmee without their even noticing it. That is a huge blow to the self-image of any typical individual who considers themselves smarter than average (which is most Americans). They will invariably reject reality and cling to the delusion that allows them to go on believing they are the smartest person around, and that requires holding even tighter to the false narrative planted in their head. The delusion is self-reinforcing.

Like religion, this shit gets slipped into people's heads "under the radar" when they are young and before they have functional bullshit detectors. It is reinforced through entertainment, but also religion, when most people have their bullshit detectors disabled and are suspending disbelief. It is cynical as can be.

And people wonder how such an enormous proportion of the US (and apparently EU) population has become so remarkably delusional. Marketing and programming of consumers comes with a huge cost to society. That cost is coming due now in the US, and is part of why Boeings power-dive into terrain, young people are too useless to even be cannon fodder, and America's flagship Artificial Intelligence lies continuously (hint: it's just mirroring you Americans).

Concerning "Invasion of the Body Snatchers":

Dana Wynter, who played Becky, said that she, Kevin McCarthy, who played Miles, and others assumed they were making an anti-Communist movie: "We took it for granted that's what we were making, but it wasn't spoken about openly on the set or anything like that."

Wynter thought the movie was anti-communist because that is precisely what it was. It was taken for granted and didn't need discussion because that was the underlying point to the vast majority of entertainment media of that period. It is how big business (capitalists) turned Americans anti-socialist/anti-communist.

Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 27 2023 17:39 utc | 87

https://www.rbc.ru/politics/27/11/2023/656482db9a7947d4fcb87262

“The Ukraine will not sign a settlement agreement with Russia without payment of reparations from Moscow”, Deputy Minister of Justice Irina Mudra said in an interview with Censor.no.

According to her, Kiev, together with its partners, was working on a compensation mechanism that could be created within the framework of a multilateral international agreement and provide for the organization of a special commission and a compensation fund. The official did not specify the possible dates of their appearance, saying that legal grounds were currently being discussed.

Mudra added that claims against Russia for compensation would be filed all over the world, in different jurisdictions and different courts, “wherever there are assets of the Russian Federation”. For the Russian side, it would be “more profitable to have one platform” to resolve the issue of compensation, the deputy head of the Ministry of Justice of the Ukraine believes. Russia could become a part of the compensation mechanism, but Mudra called filling the compensation fund a condition for joining it.

“If Russia thinks that it will sign a settlement agreement without reparations — it will not sign it. The Ukraine will never do this. And peace will not go, because someone has to pay these reparations. If not Russia, then who?” she said.

In November 2022, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution providing for the creation of an international mechanism for compensation of damage to Ukraine. The document was supported by 94 countries, opposed by 14, abstained — 73.

Russia’s Permanent Representative Vassily Nebenzia said that the authors of the resolution (Canada, Guatemala, the Netherlands and Ukraine) intend to be able to use frozen Russian assets to finance the supply of weapons to Kiev and pay off debts on already transferred weapons. The provisions of the document, according to him, “do not stand up to any criticism, are legally null and void and an attempt to legalize what is not legalized from the point of view of current international law.” The Russian authorities consider the resolution as a political statement, it has no legal force, said Finance Minister Siluanov.

Posted by: reparations | Nov 27 2023 17:48 utc | 88

Russians (and Chinese) have been cast as the bad guys in cinema for many decades with only a brief respite in the 90s. It's ingrained in western culture. A Life picture book of WWII published in the early 50s barely mentions our Soviet allies and their contribution to the allied victory. Since then Hollywood essentially erased the Soviets from the WWII story. Same for western history of the war - except for lend-lease.

Posted by: the pessimist | Nov 27 2023 17:49 utc | 89

At 20 I won a University Power Lifting championship with a bench press of 142,5 kg, which remained my record for 30 years. I could guarantee it for most of the time day or night, rain or snow, even slightly drunk.
At 55 I pressed 155kg, but I had to be careful when to guarantee it. Maybe 80% of time and depending on sleep, fatigue and that. Young has good and bad days not so far away from each others, at 55 you are much more at the mercy of your body's whim.

Posted by: Catilina | Nov 27 2023 17:53 utc | 90

@karlof (77)

There is no way UA will retreat behind Dniepr as defensive line. Many mayor cities are situated on both sides of the Dniepr or mostly on the left bank, Zaporozhe, Kremenchuk, Dnieprpetrovsk, and most important Kiev itself. This would require resettlement of the UA bodies towards Lvov.
Nor is RU in a situation to stay on the left bank, as parts of Kherson and Zaporozhe oblasts, which are part of Russia, situated on the right bank.

Posted by: BG13 | Nov 27 2023 17:53 utc | 91

Film in the US has always been big business first, and somewhere way down the list of priorities was art.

Making a profit has always been a top priority for big business, but there is a priority even higher: maintaining an environment where they can make a profit; that is to say, maintaining and promoting the capitalist system and tarring and demonizing anything that could threaten that system.

If you find yourself confused about which side of the capitalism/socialism divide a film falls on, look no further than the entity that created the film. Was it financed and produced by a worker-owned entity/enterprise? Then maybe it was socialist. Was it produced by a private/investor owned enterprise? Then it was capitalist.

Now tell me about all of the worker-owned studios in Hollywood.

The one thing more important to capitalists than making a profit is safeguarding capitalism itself. There is absolutely zero chance a capitalist will cut their own throat by promoting socialist media. Any "debate" among media critics about whether some capitalist-produced film is secretly socialist is just kayfab to help cover for media products that didn't cover their imperialist tracks very well.

Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 27 2023 18:01 utc | 92

b,
That population pyramid is definitely strange. If true, here's another conclusion we can draw from it: the extreme shortage of young men probably means that a military coup against the Coke Head In Chief is unlikely.

Posted by: Cyril | Nov 27 2023 18:04 utc | 93

BG13 @91: "There is no way UA will retreat..."

I don't think the Russians will give them a choice in the matter. As Biswapriya Purkayast @16 points out, sending pregnant women to the trenches is a sign the Ukrainians are scraping the bottom of the barrel. Take another look at the deformed "population pyramid" our host helpfully provided and tally up how many women of childbearing age the Ukraine has to throw into the meat grinder. It's not much, and throwing them away now at best postpones the end for the Ukraine for a few years...at best. When a country loses its breeders it is all over, war or no war.

Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 27 2023 18:10 utc | 94

It's well known fact that older men can't run [I mean sprint] for shit. An attacking army has to move quickly...unlike a defending Army. For a nation to attack with old men is an expression of Oedipean depravity.

Posted by: S Brennan | Nov 27 2023 18:17 utc | 95

(what is political term for controlling/distorting perception)

Posted by: jared | Nov 27 2023 13:29 utc | 17

Liberal? Democrat?? Progressive???

Posted by: Phil R | Nov 27 2023 18:19 utc | 96

"Europe is hell bent on self destruction and the US is more than happy to pour gasoline on the fire. Just when I think they will finally get their shit together, they double down on their insanity. Professor Michael Hudson stated in a recent interview, that the reason this is happening is because European politicians are the cheapest and easiest to bribe. You have to admit, it surely makes sense.

Posted by: Chicago Bob | Nov 27 2023 12:11 utc | 4"

No. This is because Europeans like being slaves.

Posted by: Feral Finster | Nov 27 2023 18:28 utc | 97

Taking Germany as their role model, the Ukies can either end this war 1918 style or 1945 style. I'm sure their Western benefactors would prefer 1945, but 1918 would save a lot of Ukie lives.

Posted by: Olly Garch | Nov 27 2023 18:29 utc | 98

Question:
Has anybody seen a recent interview with one David Arachamija
providing information that the Butcha Massaker was faked by Ukraine?

found a reference in another forum but could not the find the relevant interview.

Posted by: MAKK | Nov 27 2023 18:35 utc | 99

On a positive note, if the Ukrainians send a few battalions of preschoolers to the trenches, that will bring the average age of their troops down nicely. If they properly balance the grandpas with toddlers, then they can claim the average age of their troops is 35!

Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 27 2023 18:35 utc | 100

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