Posted by: unimperator | Nov 24 2023 15:42 utc | 102
Yeah, the whole story smells like a psyop to imply the US has that tech and it’s not rubbish. Plus if it turns out to be rubbish they are pre-blaming devious spies for getting a heads up.

Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 24 2023 15:57 utc | 103

But there’s also a (probably greater) possibility that things will get easier for the Ukrainians if they concentrate on defense.
Posted by: Anonymous | Nov 24 2023 13:46 utc | 100
At the tactical level, no doubt. At the strategic level in light of the western unwillingness to mobilize and intervene directly the resource imbalance is just too great. Ask the government of Austria-Hungary, if you can find them…

Posted by: Satepestage | Nov 24 2023 17:12 utc | 105

98
2 drivers have died.. whether winter cold or lack food drink.. run out of fuel to keep warm .run out of salary savings as not paid until delivery?..untreated illness or just frustration stress etc …they cannot return home probably as then goods willl be worthless and perhaps rely on return loads to finance trip…apparently costing Ukr economy 400m… protests in Moldova by farmers,….

Posted by: Jo | Nov 24 2023 18:10 utc | 107

The USA and Germany want to force Ukraine to start negotiations with Russia, the BILD newspaper claims. According to sources of the German newspaper, they plan to do this not by direct political pressure, but by a gradual reduction in arms supplies:
“Zelensky himself must come to the understanding that this cannot continue. Without any outside prompts. He must, of his own free will, address his people and explain that negotiations are necessary.”
At the same time, according to BILD, they want to put Ukraine in a “strategically advantageous” negotiating position. How is not explained.
Let us recall that just yesterday the head of the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry said that the West can force Ukraine to end the war with Russia through negotiations.

https://t.me/Media_Post_UA/15018

They are already telling us openly to negotiate because they will reduce the supply of weapons and money.
Zelensky has three options.
1. Repaint in a jump and begin to warm up the masses that a bad peace is better than a good war. Moreover, the people are already ready to make concessions. But this is a threat to the rebellion and Maidan-3, which will be staged by those who wanted to fight to the end. Western Ukraine will rock, which is why people like Farion began to be discredited and radicals purged.
2. Go on the defensive according to the principle of a frozen war. It’s like a Syrian scenario, where Ukraine will become the LDPR and will become poorer, and the people will continue to leave the country. But Ze will rule forever.
3. Continue the war. Replace weapons with more infantry (cemeteries will grow). At the same time, try to open a second front in the Transnistrian direction, which could again confuse the cards, and perhaps Ukraine will receive an official war from the Russian Federation and then the Russians will no longer fight with an army of one million, but of three million. Including conscripts and regulars. Then the loss of new territories will accelerate. For example, Moldova will gain control over Tiraspol, and Ukraine will lose another 3-4 regions. (Not an equal exchange).
Conclusion: there is no longer a good scenario for Ukraine, every one is bad or even worse for the ordinary Ukrainian. But the authorities will choose the option for themselves in order to sit at the feeding trough as long as possible.

https://t.me/legitimniy/16775

Posted by: Down South | Nov 24 2023 18:14 utc | 109

Our source reports that Zelensky tried to call Polish President Duda to resolve the crisis at the border. But Duda didn’t pick up the phone.
The crisis in relations between the two countries is growing. Zelensky himself played an important role in this, as he got carried away and tried to constantly blackmail his partners until he was shown his place.
All our sources say that Poland is developing a “package of claims” against Ukraine, including territorial ones (as they demanded financial reparations from the Germans).
Therefore, the situation will only get worse and Zelensky will no longer be able to solve it; time and opportunities are lost.

https://t.me/legitimniy/16773

Our sources in the OP believe that Poland and Slovakia have unleashed a real economic war against Kyiv. Taking into account Hungary, a whole alliance against Ukraine emerges.
Bankova understands that if Romania joins them, a belt of hostility will form along the western border of Ukraine, which can easily turn from an economic confrontation into a political one.
If we take into account the fact that each and neighboring countries have territorial claims against us, this may result in a harsh confrontation in the future.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/20586

Posted by: Down South | Nov 24 2023 18:20 utc | 111

⚡️ Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (18–24 November 2023)
▫️In the period from 18 to 24 November 2023, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation inflicted 31 group strikes with high-precision weapons and
unmanned aerial vehicles on the military airfield infrastructure, arsenals, storage sites for artillery ammunition, weapons and military hardware,
as well as enemy POL bases. In addition, temporary deployment sites of Ukrainian troops, Azov nationalists, and Foreign Legion were defeated.
All the assigned targets have been hit.
▫️ In Kupyansk direction, units the Zapad Group of Forces have improved the situation along the front line in several sectors and repelled 13 AFU
attacks. Air strikes and artillery fire inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of AFU 10th Mountain Assault Brigade, 57th Motorised Infantry
Brigade, 14th, 43rd, 53rd, and 67th mechanised brigades near Sinkovka, Ivanovka, Zagoruykovka, Kislovka, and Kupyansk (Kharkov region). The enemy
losses were more than 305 Ukrainian troops, two armoured fighting vehicles, 16 motor vehicles, and seven field artillery guns.
▫️ In Krasny Liman direction, units of the Tsentr Group of Forces supported by aviation, artillery, and heavy flamethrower systems repelled ten
attacks launched by assault detachments of the AFU 5th National Guard Brigade, 12th Special Operations Brigade, 24th, 47th, and 67th mechanised
brigades. In addition, strikes were delivered at manpower and hardware of the AFU 31st National Guard Brigade, 117th and 125th territorial defence
brigades close to Torskoye, Krasny Liman, Serebryanka, and Grigorovka (Donetsk People’s Republic). The enemy losses totalled over 740 Ukrainian
troops killed and wounded, six armoured fighting vehicles, 15 motor vehicles, and 3 field artillery guns.
▫️ In Donetsk direction, units of the Yug Group of Forces repelled 22 enemy attacks and inflicted losses on AFU manpower and hardware near
Mariynka, Kurdyumovka, Vasyukovka, Artyomovsk, Andreevka, and Kleshcheyevka (Donetsk People’s Republic). The enemy losses were more than 1,680
Ukrainian troops killed and wounded, four tanks, ten armoured fighting vehicles, 18 motor vehicles, and 14 field artillery guns.
▫️ In South Donetsk direction, units of the Vostok Group of Forces took more advantageous lines and positions, as well as repelled two enemy
attacks. Air strikes and artillery fire inflicted losses on units of the AFU 58th Motorised Infantry Brigade, 72nd Mechanised Brigade, 79th
Assault Brigade, as well as 127th and 128th territorial defence brigades close to Novomikhailovka, Staromayorskoye, Nikolskoye, Shevchenko,
Novodonetskoye, and Konstantinovka (Donetsk People’s Republic). The AFU losses amounted to more than 625 Ukrainian troops, seven armoured fighting
vehicles, 16 motor vehicles, as well as 13 field artillery guns.
▫️ In Zaporozhye direction, units of the Russian Group of Forces engaged in intensive defence, during which repelled 11 attacks of the AFU units
near Rabotino and Verbovoye (Zaporozhye region). Moreover, the Russian Armed Forces inflicted fire damage on manpower and hardware of AFU 71st
Jaeger Brigade, 82nd Assault Brigade, 33rd, 65th, and 118th mechanised brigades near Malaya Tokmachka, Uspenovka, and Novoandreyevka (Zaporozhye
region). The enemy losses totalled over 435 Ukrainian troops killed and wounded, three tanks, 21 armoured fighting vehicles, 22 motor vehicles,
and four field artillery pieces.
▫️In Kherson direction, the enemy units made unsuccessful attempts to land infantry groups on islands and the left bank of the Dnepr. As a result
of preventive actions by the Russian forces and artillery fire assaults, the AFU have lost up to 405 Ukrainian troops, 11 field artillery guns, 12
boats, and 26 motor vehicles. In addition, units of the AFU 32nd and 57th mechanised brigades have been hit near Tyaginka, Tokarevka, and Sadovoye
(Kherson region). In addition, 39 Ukrainian servicemen have surrendered in this direction during the week.
▫️ Operational-Tactical and Missile Troops of the Russian Groups of Forces destroyed one radar of Ukrainian S-300 air defence system and two U.S.-
made counterbattery radar stations AN/TPQ-50.
▫️ The Black Sea Fleet’s naval aircraft destroyed 12 AFU uncrewed surface vehicles in the Black Sea waters heading towards the Crimean peninsula.
▫️ Air defence units shot down one MiG-29 aircraft and one Mi-8 helicopter of the Ukrainian Air Force. Air defence units shot down 15 HIMARS and
Olkha MLRS projectiles, two Neptune anti-ship missiles, and 176 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles.
📊 In total, 537 airplanes and 255 helicopters, 9,165 unmanned aerial vehicles, 442 air defence missile systems, 13,586 tanks and other armoured
fighting vehicles, 1,185 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 7,166 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 15,572 units of special military
equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.
🔹 Russian Defence Ministry

Posted by: rumod report | Nov 24 2023 18:45 utc | 113

When sheep-dipped NATO mercs come across the border
Their brain matter splatters and their lives get shorter

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Nov 24 2023 19:09 utc | 115

Bild 23.11.23 22.37: “For a long time it looked as if Ukraine might be able to defeat Russia.” – News in US-Dominions, here Germany.

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Nov 24 2023 21:03 utc | 117

new dutch leader apparently does not want Ukraine to recieve 42 F-16 planes
getting interesting….
Posted by: Jo | Nov 24 2023 18:11 utc | 109
Nobody seems to be in a big hurry to get F-16s flying over Ukraine. It takes a long time to train pilots I’m told.

Posted by: dh | Nov 24 2023 22:03 utc | 119

Putin speech suggesting negotiations:
https://kapital-rus.ru/news/401903-tragediya_na_ukraine_situaciya_vyshla_za_gran_kriticheskoi_god_semi_/

Posted by: Scorpion | Nov 24 2023 22:59 utc | 121

Posted by: whirlX | Nov 24 2023 21:03 utc | 119
“I cautiously guess early Spring 2024.”
————-
The first half of spring ends ~06MAY2024.
So you are looking at getting to Odessa in less than 6 months. What about the current rate of progress makes this likely? [We haven’t taken Avdiivka for months now…heck we haven’t even taken Stepove for weeks…despite the breathy “outside Stepove” that we hear as “news” all the time…even though it’s standoff for last three weeks.
Here is a map of Ukraine: https://www.world-grain.com/ext/resources/2022/02/04/Ukraine_AdobeStock_92873963_E.jpg?height=667&t=1698434288&width=1080
To get to Odessa, you need to take Kherson and Mykoliav first. Note that Avdiivka (the main focus of Russian effort) is nowhere near Odessa (not shown on the map, but basically next to Dontesk). And they haven’t even started going after Kherson…there’s not even the prep phase for an offensive. And Kherson is a sizeable objective, with a river in between. And the Ukrainians have the height advantage (much higher west of the river). And then you still have Mykoliav to capture. Let alone the time it takes to capture Odessa itself.
Add onto all of that, you’ve got winter and current and spring mud seasons. And southern Ukraine does not freeze hard, usually. To seriously start going after Kherson, you are looking at summer 2024. And it’s a non-trivial task, will probably take all summer and require massive repositioning of forces.

Posted by: Anonymous | Nov 24 2023 23:17 utc | 123

Posted by: dh | Nov 24 2023 22:03 utc | 120
Most people have been told that the training started around 6 months ago.
But some people were told that killing and then raping everybody in Kiev was a three day operation.
So your mileage may vary.

Posted by: Membrum Virile | Nov 24 2023 23:36 utc | 125

Posted by: Poslan1 | Nov 24 2023 23:43 utc | 126
To be honest, Odessa might not happen until Zaporozhye, or maybe even Dnepropetrovsk happens first.
And since Ukraine is already mobilizing women and children after 20 months, taking more cities per se might even not be very relevant, because the society is pretty much destroyed even without territory. If surrenders keep the bells are ringing.

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 24 2023 23:51 utc | 127

Posted by: John Marks | Nov 24 2023 23:35 utc | 124
More an existential hope than a solid military analysis, I think. The usual noises made from those who are trying to internalise the reality of defeat. Nothing the West can do, short of direct military intervention, will affect the trajectory of the war, hence Zelensky not being invited to the recent NATO meeting in Ramstein.

Posted by: Milites | Nov 25 2023 0:00 utc | 129

by Anonymous | Nov 24 2023 23:17 utc | 123
Sure thing and well noticed. But there I think that Odesa, as a city, is not very important, but the south of it is not that wide and it is a connect to Transnistria, Moldova, and Romania, plus half of Danube delta. There is enough of a critical mass in Odesa to liberate themselves.
I say early spring next year is a possible start of trying to cut Odesa Raion on two parts. That is why they are stockpiling missiles and every other ammo and renewing Navy. I am pretty sure that Romania is safe. Well, maybe some airports might not be that safe, but ok.
RF is not asking for a conflict with the West, right? And I do not see 101 Airborne or anyone else, being more then just an observer. Politically, mainly, and everything else being secondary, it is a devastating for NATO in many ways and dimensions.
I mean at some point Ukraine will break along the long front line that will be unsustainable to upkeep very soon, and then all the bad weather logistical nightmares and a chain planning supplies will be easier to implement and liberation would move fast.
If Avedeyevka falls badly, as in many Ukrainians killed and POW, a crystal ball on my desk predicts a start of a very dangerous and unpredictable Ukrainian implosion. The time will tell…

Posted by: whirlX | Nov 25 2023 0:04 utc | 131

Scorpion | Nov 24 2023 23:02 utc | 122
Putin, the Russian leadership have never been against negotiations. The early negotiations with Ykraine was a likely going through the motions routine with the very faint possibility of Kiev making a decision independent of UK/US or that perhaps Ukraine’s owners were agreeable to it. I assume negotiations now will be directly with Ukraine’s owners.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 25 2023 0:08 utc | 133

The early negotiations with Ykraine was a likely going through the motions routine…
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 25 2023 0:08 utc | 133

It was “the new chapter event”, like in “They promised you that we would not dare to interfere, now you see that they were lying, please rethink and discontinue” event.
The next one wil be “the still new chapter event”, like in “They promised you that they will support you till the end, now you see that they were lying, please rethink and discontinue”. There might be even more events, Russia has enough power for that.

Posted by: Poslan1 | Nov 25 2023 0:20 utc | 135

Posted by: Poslan1 | Nov 25 2023 0:05 utc | 132
Yes agreed Anonymous was making fictional scenarios of what he thinks “should happen”, and then making arguments of how hard it would be to fulfill this scenario. Kind of like saying that US should have already had colonies (which they should have had!) on Mars 15 years ago, but they didn’t so they suck.
In any case when talking about Odessa objectively. The simple reason I don’t see it happening is because it will simply stretch the front too much. As we have seen, this isn’t really a territorial grab war.
Odessa is complete periphery in terms of the current front line. Going for Odessa just for the sake of getting it makes no sense. It will stretch the front and leave the path between Odessa – Nikolaev – Kherson vulnerable from the north and north-west and require lot of forces just to protect the pathway running into Odessa. It makes no sense whatsoever.
Odessa will, IMHO, be a residual effect in the very end game of SMO. After Zaporozhye, Krivoy Rog and Nikolaev, the trail will be pretty much clear to Odessa with no flanking vulnerabilities and Ukraine will probably be collapsed at that point already.

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 25 2023 0:25 utc | 137

Odessa will, IMHO, be a residual effect in the very end game of SMO.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 25 2023 0:25 utc | 137

I am sure the city itself will not even have to be conquered. Yeah, some buildings will be mined and exploded by Ukies (with brit mines set to blow through US satellites), but otherwise the city would be intact.

Posted by: Poslan1 | Nov 25 2023 0:38 utc | 139

by Poslan1 | Nov 25 2023 0:47 utc | 140
Odesa is also correct, not?
Yes, I know what you are saying, but strategically Odesssa is as a city not the focus, but the area about 20-30 km down south of it.
Information I look for is how are RF’s Peacekeepers in Trasnistria rotated and supplied.

Posted by: whirlX | Nov 25 2023 1:01 utc | 141

There is growing evidence that Ukraine is having major issues with respect to mobilisation efforts and those deserting, whose numbers are growing exponentially.
Privately there is also a growing mood that Western allies of Ukraine routinely now want to know precisely where their aid is being spent, even as it dries up in relative terms.
https://twitter.com/thesiriusreport/status/1728048868506402819

Mobilizing more people is turning more and more counter-productive. First you have the law of diminishing returns, and then the law of negative returns.

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 25 2023 1:23 utc | 143

Some videos for today.
Russian Ka-52 fires rockets at enemy position and a guided missile at an enemy armored vehicle:
https://rutube.ru/video/be066aa88754ea13a1deefefe986b329/
Russian airborne forces uses drones to strike enemy trenches near the DPR’s Artemovsk:
https://rutube.ru/video/3e4b8892a227f2cc67a84b8b442dad6f/
Russian snipers in action near Ugledar:
https://rutube.ru/video/179adf4afd65ce07613247f65f6b4d23/
Russian Tor-M2 air defense system shoots down enemy drone:
https://rutube.ru/video/70e4fa45bd0955edb71d0a929762efaa/

Posted by: Nate | Nov 25 2023 2:18 utc | 145

Wow my arithmetic might be out but I calculate TASS body numbers for the week ending 25th November at 3,885!
That has to be a record, surely?
The simple answer is no, by far. The Russian MoD issued several 5000 or more weekly casualties before. However there was a big unknown since the start of the Avdievka operation: they kept secret all the numbers (and all the events as a matter of fact) in this area. It is not being unrealistic to bet that the main battle now is precisely at and around Avdievka, likely by far, regarding troops and equipments . Some other clues are given by such facts that the AFU redirected several divisions to the Avdievka front and above all, just because of the MoD blackout regarding this location, which was not their practice until now.
Posted by: Gerry Bell | Nov 25 2023 1:48 utc | 144

Posted by: jean levant | Nov 25 2023 4:44 utc | 147

📋🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Two Majors #Report for the Morning of 25 November 2023; pub. 07:00📍
⚡️ During the night and towards morning, the RF Armed Forces pounded the enemy’s rear areas with Geranium UAVs. Explosions were heard in the #Kiev, #Nikolayev, #Kirovograd, #Dnepropetrovsk and #Zaporozhye regions.
▪️ In the #Kherson direction, the RF Armed Forces were engaged in heavy fighting with the enemy at the #Krynki settlement, trying to push the AFU out of the forest plantation south of the village. The enemy suffered losses, retreated chaotically and panicked on the radio. There are dead on our side as well. A video has appeared of our aircraft using the FAB-1500 with the UMPC in the area of the #Antonovsky bridge. The RF Armed Forces are destroying enemy clusters in shelters and in folds of the terrain.
▪️ On the #Zaporizhzhya front, the enemy tried to attack near #Rabotino and #Verbovoye, acting by landing from armored vehicles. In the afternoon, our paratroopers counterattacked and regained control of the forest belt near the village of #Verbovoye. There are mutual artillery attacks. The reports reflect the deterioration of weather conditions and a decrease in the intensity of enemy artillery fire.
▪️ In the #Avdeyevka sector, the RF Armed Forces have forced some enemy units to flee from the industrial zone on the southern section of the front. Yesterday morning our troops began a daring assault on enemy positions in the industrial zone, actively engaging tanks to break through enemy defences and destroy buildings turned into AFU strongholds. There, the accurate fire of our artillery broke the will of some enemy units to resist, the enemy fled, and our storm troopers took their positions in combat. The AFU still have a small fragment of the fortified area in the industrial zone.
▪️ South of #Artyomovsk (#Bakhmut), the RF Armed Forces are not giving up the initiative at #Kleshcheyevka and #Andreyevka. They report about the tactical advance of our troops. The enemy’s counterattacks do not reach their goals.
💥 In the #DPR, two civilians were wounded by Nazi fire, including a girl born in 2010.
🎬 #Kherson region on our side of the #Dnieper River.👇 After overcoming a water obstacle, enemy infantry groups are trying to disperse on the ground and find shelter. Our troops as a result of aerial reconnaissance detects the enemy’s manpower, artillery and aviation. In the same #Krynki, in the part where the enemy holds part of the village, there are practically no whole houses left. The AFU has been suffering casualties around the clock since they began their operation to gain a foothold on our coast, which is a swampy area with channels.

https://t.me/sitreports/18580

Posted by: Down South | Nov 25 2023 5:24 utc | 149

David Arakhamia, faction leader of Servant of the People and head of the Ukrainian delegation at the peace talks is interviewed by journalist Natalya Moseychuk. This interview finally confirms what most of us always new was true. That:
It was always about NATO.
They really hoped almost to the last moment that they would force us to sign such an agreement so that we would take neutrality. It was the most important thing for them. They were prepared to end the war if we agreed to, – as Finland once did, – neutrality, and committed that we would not join NATO.
That BoJo flew in to scuttle the peace deal.
Moreover, when we returned from Istanbul, Boris Johnson came to Kyiv and said that we would not sign anything with them at all, and let’s just fight.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/75468
Subtitled video in link

Posted by: Down South | Nov 25 2023 5:31 utc | 151

No, south Odessa raion is not important. It´s just the Budjak. It´s not even Russian-speaking.
Trade it with Rumania in exchange for their Aegis Ashore system and leaving NATO & the EU.
Posted by: John Marks | Nov 25 2023 1:04 utc | 142

It actually is predominantly Russian speaking — the largest minority there are Bulgarians at 20-25%, Romanians are only 10%, you also have some Gagauzians, and the rest is Russians and “Ukrainians”. But this isn’t Ivano-Frankovsk, nobody has ever spoken “Ukrainian” in that region, nor has there been much of an incentive for proper Ukrainians to move there in recent years as there might have been in the city of Odessa, they just wrote “Ukrainian” in the census by default for a lot of people.
P.S. Ukraine only ever did once census in its whole existence as a separate country — way back in 2001. And it being way back in 2001 is significant on its own for our purposes, as this was before the really rabid nationalist Banderites took over.
According to that census, the population was 78% “Ukrainian” and 17% Russian. Even in Crimea Russians were only 58%, in Donetsk and Lugansk they were listed as 38-39%, in Odessa at 20%, in Kiev itself at 6%.
In terms of who is speaking what language, it was 67% “Ukrainian” and 30% Russian. But how can it be that Russians are at only 17% but 30% are speaking Russian when the two populations are genetically indistinguishable, and the language is the only thing that separates them? Which was, ironically, recently confirmed by Banderite mad dog Irina Faryon, who claimed that even Azov fighters who speak Russian among themselves (which they indeed do) are not Ukrainians.
Doesn’t make sense, right?
But even those numbers are totally fake — we have the Arestovich admission that 85% of Kiev speaks Russian now, after the SMO stated, and yet the 2001 census claims that in Kiev they speak Ukrainian at 72% (presumably that has gone up a lot by now). Someone isn’t telling the truth here. I wonder who that is? The truth is that only a minority speak Ukrainian, the rest speak Russian or Surzhyk, which is a mixture of the two, but if you speak Surzhyk, or often even if you speak Russian, they list you as Ukrainian speaker in the census because of the political mandate to make it look like there are as few Russians as possible.
At this point it is not even clear who speaks “Ukrainian” natively. Because in their obsessive drive to make it as different from Russian as possible they started changing it even further, mandating that various words be replaced with new made up ones, changing grammar and spelling, etc. So it is quite likely that even people in the villages in Galicia and Volhynia are not speaking what the current “Ukrainian” standard is, but something that it has diverged from.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Nov 25 2023 7:15 utc | 153

Re: Posted by: Anonymous | Nov 24 2023 23:17 utc | 123

Add onto all of that, you’ve got winter and current and spring mud seasons. And southern Ukraine does not freeze hard, usually. To seriously start going after Kherson, you are looking at summer 2024. And it’s a non-trivial task, will probably take all summer and require massive repositioning of forces.

Wow – another realist at the bar! Great to have you here.
I’ve been telling the fantasists in the bar for months (probably over a year) – that Russia isn’t just going to roll into Lviv by Christmas (Christmas 2022 that is) – some here still seem to believe that will happen.
There was a Hack here for a time (some called him RSH) who continually and constantly predicted this war would end “in a few months”
Reality never managed to intrude into his delusions!

Posted by: Julian | Nov 25 2023 8:37 utc | 155

… In the same #Krynki, in the part where the enemy holds part of the village, there are practically no whole houses left. …
Posted by: Down South | Nov 25 2023 5:24 utc | 149
It’s the same story all over, as in Libya, Syria, Grozny etc, when a conventional military-strategic purpose is lacking it becomes inescapably obvious that the only consistent motive is death and destruction for its own sake.
Antonovsky bridge was destroyed just to clear out not even 100 guys, the whole residential area around it has been similarly razed to the ground, and yet there is still sporadic fighting on the very same ground.
Even with the advantage of a broad river crossing, there is still no consistent surveillance & fire complex to spot incursions quickly enough and respond with proportionate force. Ukrainian forces are able slip across and dig in, at which point it’s like trying to pick shit out a casserole.

Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 25 2023 9:02 utc | 157

You are absolutely mad to think The West will give up any land – any land at all – in any negotiation.
Posted by: Julian | Nov 25 2023 8:53 utc | 156

You are pushing evil Russian propaganda that the West is somehow a part of this conflict? You insinuate that Biden…. what… lies, when he says that it is definetely not so?

Posted by: Poslan1 | Nov 25 2023 9:36 utc | 159

https://sonar21.com/more-bad-analysis-and-explaining-the-failure-to-properly-assess-russia/
“Kudos to Andrei Martyanov for highlighting an article I missed — Bad history makes for bad policy on Ukraine — by Robert English. Andrei correctly takes English to task for butchering the statistics regarding the Battle of Kursk. I want to take a deeper dive into Mr. English’s article because he embraces a number of false assumptions about Russia but still manages to come to the correct conclusion about the failure of U.S. and NATO planners to understand the cause of the Ukrainian debacle, which is:
. . . a broader analytical failing that has yet to be acknowledged: flawed and often facile historical analogies led defense planners to underestimate Russia’s resilience.
Okay. There is the benchmark — i.e., Identify the “flawed and often facile historical analogies” that produced the delusional analysis and predictions pumped out by a raft of “military experts” during the last 20 months. But English immediately displays his own ignorance with this passage:
One example is Russia’s acceptance of mass casualties and use of “human wave” attacks where they lose three or more soldiers for every Ukrainian casualty. Time and again — right up to the present — commanders and commentators cite this as a sign of severe Russian weakness.
Okay. Time for a reality check. Russia has not suffered mass casualties and has not used “human wave” attacks. Seems that the Russian General Staff are not a bunch of cretins. They entered Ukraine with an estimated 70,000 to 100,000 soldiers and attacked a Ukrainian Army that consisted of 196,000 soldiers and an active reserve of 900,000, according to the Business Insider. English could argue that the Russians were guilty of hubris, but I think that move reflected their confidence in being able to deal effectively with a force two to three times larger. There is no evidence that Russia conducted any human wave attacks during 2022 or 2023 and certainly did not suffer mass casualties. Just the opposite. The Russian General staff conducted operations specifically designed to minimize Russian casualties.
Russia has done two basic things to pulverize Ukrainian forces. First, it used its decisive advantage in missiles and artillery to pound Ukrainian trenches, bases and supply depots. Second, it used drones in an unprecedented fashion (and with increasing sophistication) to conduct “drone wave” attacks on Ukrainian soldiers hunkered down in bunkers.”

Posted by: chop | Nov 25 2023 10:13 utc | 161

Posted by: Julian | Nov 25 2023 8:37 utc | 155
Industrial warfare is never technologically or doctrinally static, therefore predicting the length of time of a future operation, ,based on those previously, is an analytical exercise fraught with difficulties. The Russian armed forces in late 2023 and both similar and radically different in their capabilities, whilst the Ukrainians are either little changed or have steadily deteriorated, due to the former improvements of their opponent. Russia now has a core of military competency that is steadily expanding and percolating through previously untouched areas, and whilst there’s a long way to go for their forces to come close to some Western capabilities, each day their combat efficiency improves, whilst the Ukrainian’s diminish.
This growing disparity will lead to different opportunities generating different outcomes than were previously generated, which is a disadvantage to the Soviet hold-over of deconstructing conflict into mathematical equations that seeks to impose order on a chaotic system, by generating predicted outcomes. New technologies improved and embedded, used by personnel who themselves are conversant in the use of the improved and upgraded SOP’s, that these platforms have helped create, are true game-changers, creating, or revealing, paradigm shifts that are being evidenced in the conduct of the SMO. This in turn means that outcomes tend to be accelerated if the attacker is being advantaged or either extinguished or rendered non-viable if the defender achieves ascendency. At the moment the impasse, dictated by technology, is being broken or attrited by technology, and the exploitation phase will come increasingly rapidly. Of course there are a host of issues that could upset any predictions, especially those made by analysts who are shackled to open-source intelligence, but I think it’s safe to say Ukraine’s goose is cooking quicker now, than at any time previously, and the dial is only going one way.

Posted by: Milites | Nov 25 2023 10:55 utc | 163

“In the same #Krynki, in the part where the enemy holds part of the village, there are practically no whole houses left. The AFU has been suffering casualties around the clock since they began their operation to gain a foothold on our coast, which is a swampy area with channels.”
Save a thought for the poor Ukrainian soldiers that arrive in the area.
This from “X”. After suffering enough 200 and 300 (dead and wounded), with no water or food, and probably not much ammunition. They repeatedly tried to get back to the “mouth”.(I presume the mouth of the small river between the islands from the Dniepr, which would have been the landing point) Two Russian tanks come out of hiding and shell them (then go back into hiding). They then have to retreat to try and find some sort of shelter.
The Uke “command” then classifies them as DSK (Deserters), in order not to pay anything to the families, and abandons them as dead men walking…..

Posted by: Stonebird | Nov 25 2023 11:26 utc | 165

MAIDAN MASSACRE TRIAL VERDICT
https://nitter.net/I_Katchanovski/status/1726980427452232046#m
Ivan Katchanovski
@I_Katchanovski
Nov 21
Wow! Maidan massacre trial verdict confirms that Hotel Ukraina rooms of German ARD TV journalists were shot from “territory controlled by “Maidan,”” specifically, Main Post Office (far-right Right Sector headquarters) & Conservatory, occupied by far-right-linked Maidan company. There are no investigation & no media reports even though bullet from Right Sector HQ narrowly missed female ARD producer in her room 925. ARD Moscow correspondents claimed that Maidan snipers is “conspiracy theory” even though now Maidan massacre trial verdict confirms that Maidan snipers massacred many Maidan protesters and police and shot at ARD and BBC TV journalists. piped.video/bpFCaFzsDB4?si=3dCv…
Verdict: “In addition, the specified data proved with all propriety that the premises of the “Ukraine” hotel were the object of massive shelling with firearms of various calibers, in particular,… from the side of the Conservatory – according to the examined photo and video materials, the territory controlled by “Maidan” (room No. 825); from the side of the Central Post Office – according to the examined photo and video materials, the territory controlled by “Maidan” (room No. 925).”

Posted by: MD | Nov 25 2023 12:25 utc | 167

Posted by: whirlX | Nov 25 2023 0:04 utc | 131
Thanks and much respect. If someone predicts X, that’s great, actually…even if X doesn’t happen. You can’t learn unless you try.
Yeah…I don’t see any reasonable way to capture Odessa by early spring2024, short of a complete collapse of the Ukrainian forces and confusion and disarray. But tell me otherwise, if so. Or, to continue the Socratic dialogue, how do you see that happening (what is a plausible military campaign to get there from here, now)?
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Nov 25 2023 0:03 utc | 130
Thanks, man. Quality comment.

Posted by: Anonymous | Nov 25 2023 13:04 utc | 169

WRT the criticism of Dante
It does seem to ignore the final point made in the post
Posted by: Lantern Dude | Nov 25 2023 11:29 utc | 166

I did not criticise Dante – I disagreed with his diminishing of what Wagner did.

Posted by: Poslan1 | Nov 25 2023 13:08 utc | 171

Posted by: bored | Nov 25 2023 13:40 utc | 172
AFU has, according to the Pentagon, been shooting down on average 90 % of all drones and missiles for the last 16 months.
Meanwhile Big Serge’s take on Avdeevka.

Avdiivka is falling apart fast for the AFU. Ukrainian artillery activity has fallen off, and the pocket is turning into a shooting gallery. It’s Soledar 2.0.

https://twitter.com/witte_sergei/status/1728104702536216846

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 25 2023 13:44 utc | 173

Russia is starting to make its superiority in electronic warfare count and there may not be much the West either can or will do to help Ukraine
Most of the attention to what Ukraine needs in its protracted struggle to free its territory from the invading Russian forces has focused on hardware: tanks, fighter jets, missiles, air-defence batteries, artillery and vast quantities of munitions. But a less discussed weakness lies in electronic warfare (EW); something that Ukraine’s Western supporters have so far shown little interest in tackling.
Russia, says Seth Jones of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a think-tank in Washington, has for many years placed a “huge focus” on using its military-industrial complex to produce and develop an impressive range of EW capabilities to counter NATO’s highly networked systems. But Ukraine, according to its commander-in-chief, General Valery Zaluzhny, found itself at the beginning of the war with mainly Soviet-era EW systems. Initially the discrepancy had only limited impact, but as relatively static lines of contact have emerged Russia has been able to position its formidable EW assets where they can have the greatest effect.
Ukraine discovered in March that its Excalibur GPS-guided shells suddenly started going off-target, thanks to Russian jamming. Something similar started happening to the JDAM-ER guided bombs that America had supplied to the Ukrainian air force, while Ukraine’s HIMARS-launched GMLRS long-range rockets also started missing their targets. In some areas, a majority of GMLRS rounds now go astray.
Even more worrying has been the increasing ability of Russian EW to counter the multitudes of cheap unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that Ukraine has been using for everything from battlefield reconnaissance and communications to exploding on impact against targets such as tanks or command nodes.
Ukraine has trained an army of some 10,000 drone pilots who are now constantly engaged in a cat-and-mouse game with increasingly adept Russian EW operators. The favoured drones are cheap, costing not much more than $1,000 each, and Ukraine is building enormous quantities of them. But losses to Russian EW, which either scrambles their guidance systems or jams their radio-control links with their operators, have at times been running at over 2,000 a week. The smitten drones hover aimlessly until their batteries run out and they fall to the ground.
Neither hardening them against jamming nor investing them with artificial intelligence to fly without a live link to a human operator are feasible options yet, at least for mini-drones. Quantity still wins out over quality, but Russia may have an advantage there too. The skies over the battlefield are now thick with Russian drones. Around Bakhmut, Ukrainian soldiers estimate that Russia is deploying twice the number of assault drones they are able to.
Growing Russian success in the drone war is partly explained by the density of EW systems it is able to field, thanks to those years of investment. A report published in May by Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds of RUSI, a think-tank in London, reckoned the Russians are fielding one major EW system every 10km along the frontline. They think that among many Russian EW systems the truck-mounted Shipovnic-Aero (pictured) is proving especially deadly to Ukrainian drones. The system has a 10km range and can take over control of the drone, while acquiring the co-ordinates of the place from where it is being piloted, with an accuracy of one metre, for transmission to an artillery battery.
Starting from a much lower level of technical and operational skill, Ukraine is struggling to develop home-grown EW capabilities to match those of the Russians. Some progress is being made. The nationwide Pokrova system is being deployed. It can both suppress satellite-based navigation systems, such as Russia’s GLONASS, and spoof them by replacing genuine signals with false ones, making the missile think it is somewhere it is not.
Pokrova should be highly effective against the Iranian-designed Shahed-136 loitering munition, but less so against cruise missiles that rely more on terrain-matching systems, which compare the ground below to a library of stored images rather than being guided all the way in. As well as Pokrova, so-called “Frankenstein” systems, cobbled together with typically Ukrainian ingenuity by combining Soviet systems with more modern technology, are also making an appearance.
But what is missing is much in the way of help from Ukraine’s Western allies when it comes to the EW contest with Russia. Mr Jones says that, as far as America is concerned, that is not likely to change. EW falls into a category of technology transfer restricted by an export-control regime that is rigidly policed by the State Department.
Nico Lange, an expert on Ukraine with the Munich Security Conference, is similarly pessimistic. For one thing, he suspects that NATO’s capabilities may not be as good as Russia’s. Worse, when it comes to the latest systems, he thinks that there is also some reluctance, especially on the part of the Americans, to show Russia its hand because actionable information, for instance on the frequencies and the channel-hopping techniques employed, is likely to be passed on to the Chinese.
Where the West could help directly, says Mr Lange, is to use its long-range surveillance drones for more systematic collection of data on Russian jamming and spoofing techniques and to work with the Ukrainians on developing counters to them. Otherwise, it looks as though Ukraine is fated to have to meet its urgent EW challenge largely on its own.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/11/23/russia-is-starting-to-make-its-superiority-in-electronic-warfare-count

Posted by: electronic warfare | Nov 25 2023 14:48 utc | 175

Posted by: electronic warfare | Nov 25 2023 14:48 utc | 175
NATO is helping, itself. Vast amounts of data is being gleaned by ISR satellites about the effectiveness of these systems and the vulnerabilities they expose. The next generation of Western weapons will put this information to good use and the deadly dance between attacker and defender, in the electro-magnetic sphere, will continue, as it does all across and beyond the combat line. This time though, thanks to advanced production technologies and enhanced electronic capabilities, the duel is getting faster and faster, with new iterations of existing platforms appearing and being countered in windows measuring mere months. In fact the fascinating report you reference was probably out of date at time of publication.

Posted by: Milites | Nov 25 2023 15:53 utc | 177

https://t.me/ZandVchannel/89584

💥🇺🇦🏴‍☠️ What is known about the assault on the Avdeevka coke plant at the moment:
The position of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Avdiivka is influenced by a number of factors that can change the combat situation in the most unexpected way.
❓🇷🇺 What is the difficulty of the assault on the Avdeevsky coke plant for the Russian Armed Forces?
▪️ The main difficulty is the large area. The Avdeevka Coke and Chemical Plant is an area of 325-340 hectares and more than 200 buildings in which the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been accumulating ammunition, equipment, equipment and military equipment for a long time. Some buildings are mined or fortified. The same factor will play a role if a decision is made to blockade rather than storm the plant’s territory.
▪️In addition, a coke plant is a complex engineering and technical structure. The territory (including underground passages) allows you to move secretly, set up ambushes and set traps. Clearing this area will require significant effort and time.
❓🇺🇦🏴‍☠️ What is the difficulty of defending the Avdeevsky coke plant for the Ukrainian Armed Forces?
▪️ Firstly, the uncertainty of the plans of the Ukrainian Armed Forces command regarding the garrison of the coke plant and the Avdeevsky site as a whole. At the moment, a conflict is developing between units of the 53rd and 110th mechanized brigades. The units accuse each other of cowardice and unwillingness to defend Avdiivka and the coke plant, however, the Ukrainian Armed Forces grouping within the city neighborhoods and industrial zone continues to become denser.
▪️ Secondly, the density of battle formations. Both in the city itself and on the territory of the plant, with an area of 325-340 hectares, there are units of at least three brigades – the 23rd, 110th and 47th Mechanized Infantry Brigades, two rifle battalions, as well as territorial defense brigades, UAV units and other formations.
On the one hand, the number of elements of disparate formations and units makes management and supply difficult. On the other hand, with a large number of units, their actual number is small. Plus they suffer losses every day.

https://t.me/ZandVchannel/89585

🇷🇺💥🇺🇦🏴‍☠️ Remote mining systems «Zemledeliye» (“Agriculture”) appeared near Avdeevka
❓Why did these complexes appear in the Avdeevka area?
One of the tasks that the Russian army is currently solving is disrupting the supply lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine between Ocheretino in the north and the Orlovka-Severnoye area in the west of Avdeevka.
All settlements through which supply routes pass, including the highway, are within the reach of «Zemledeliye».
The use of these complexes will prevent or interrupt the supply of the defending group both along highways and dirt roads.
The transfer of heavy equipment and its evacuation will also be difficult, if not completely stopped.
The more or less massive transfer of material and human reserves from site to site, including with the help of civilian vehicles, will also be disrupted.
In conditions of intense battles, when the consumption of ammunition increases and the number of wounded grows, as well as the onset of cold weather, when fuel consumption increases significantly, disruption of regular supplies can become a determining factor in the stability of defense in a number of areas.

https://t.me/ZandVchannel/89572

🇷🇺💥🇺🇦🏴‍☠️ Russia has increased the production of missiles for the Iskander-M complex several times.
There is enough ammunition. And the military is now hitting one target with several missiles at once. ” A new tactic,” said the authors of an article published in the Military Watch Magazine.
“These missiles are a challenge for defense. And not only because of their ability to carry special penetrating warheads, but also because of their ability to perform complex maneuvers that make them extremely difficult to intercept.”

Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 25 2023 18:41 utc | 179

Posted by: electronic warfare | Nov 25 2023 14:48 utc | 176
I think EW currently looks over-powered because so many drones in SMO are fairly dumb consumer grade (or close derivatives thereof) that use single-hop communication with low-to-no security.
Make hay while the sun shines but understand the underlying processes: relay, mesh and satellite communication are all definitely things, as is cryptography.
Smarter drones that have enough autonomy to continue without live communications or at least return to a rendezvous point if jammed is a simple upgrade. Relay or mesh communication would greatly reduce the effective range of jamming installations, satellite links in at least some of the the drones themselves would put operators well beyond any realistic danger.
Integrating existing technology in a logical manner will greatly reduce EW effectiveness, quite aside from EW stations being hot targets themselves.
Free-space optical communication (FSO) Is also a thing, if you want to look a bit further into the future.
Active measures to blind, burn or blast drones will have to take up the slack because there’s only so much EW can do against what’s already on the development track.

Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 25 2023 18:58 utc | 181

by shаdοwbanned | Nov 25 2023 0:03 utc | 130
Yeah…I don’t see any reasonable way to capture Odessa by early spring2024, short of a complete collapse of the Ukrainian forces and confusion and disarray. But tell me otherwise, if so. Or, to continue the Socratic dialogue, how do you see that happening (what is a plausible military campaign to get there from here, now)?
Thanks for the discussion with whatever allowed operational depth it has publicly.
I try to say that if things go on, as they are, and I doubt that it can go on like this much longer, RF might IN the Spring of 2024 launch a combined attack with air, navy and missile forces, beginning with para and heli landings along and in, below mentioned main strategic traffic knots, some 30 km south of Odesa city. So, a view on a map might help.
The operational aim is to cut Odesa Oblast/Raion on two parts and gain the connect to Transnistria and liberate the North Danube delta and adjoining estuaries.
Duration might be flexible, but according to the terrain, a vegetation and a climate, it is better to do it before it gets warm and while is not so cold.
It could and should be done in a time-frame of at around 2-3 weeks, say early or mid March.
The way I would do it would be a massive road and rail targeting (Iskander, Onyx, KH-101, Tornado) of places like Tatarbunary, Monashi, Sarata and Zatoka as an interlude. Also simultaneously neutralizing Ukrainian coastal arty and AD along the way from the air. while making BSF closing in and neutering Ukrainian-NATO points, on oil rigs and the already forgotten Snake Island. Heavy missile and arty attacks on Ochakiv, Yuzne, Kherson and Mikolaev military strongholds and their routes, to prevent any idea of having reinforcements to avail.
Also with necessary in-depth destruction of logistic knots Northwest of Odesa.
From the landing designations to the Transnistrian border is on average around 40 km. The first city that is next to liberate is for the RF troops from Zatoka and Monashi as an objective, a port of Krasna Kosa for a direct connect to Transnistrian forces.
The second phase would be RF navy demining the coastal waters and areas, shortly followed by landing ships, delivering armor and arty for about 10 BTGs and added additional troops landing. The rest is just a naval and aerial logistics.
That cuts Odesa Raion/Oblast on half.
That achieved, a naval force and landing ships could be delivering reinforcements, moving SW to Izmail via Suvarovo from Tatarbunary and from Sarata to Tarutnie to the NW route.
That done RF is on a NATO border, Transnistria is connected, Odesa is neutralized from the South, Crimea safer.
How they will make the deals and such to surrender/liberate city I do not know, but there is no wish and a need to Bakhmutize Odesa.
As for the equipment and personnel, I estimate that around 200 various missiles, 10.000 paras as the boots on the ground, around 300 assorted MI-8, 17, 38 transported helicopters, full air support and a suppression with around 30 airframes and 40 rotary ground attack KA-52, Mi-28 added with EW and ISR systems just for the initial bridgehead set up.
Pros are bigger than cons there, but is RF military willing to do it, that is another question. Can they do it? Sure they can, but not without the fights and losses in assets and personnel. What can be the biggest obstacle to such action? AD and the sea mines.
I understand that at the present there should be enough troops for it, but also, I get that some other places must be prioritized and secured before any attempt to go for Odesa Raion or Oblast.
As everyone else I am waiting and hoping for the Ukrainian military and a state collapse.
I am not skilled enough to make this a perfect military plan, but I tried.
following Homer Simpson’s advice: Trying is the first step towards failure.

Posted by: whirlX | Nov 25 2023 20:18 utc | 183

Gruff most of the Trump supporters that I know think of him more as a Molotov cocktail than a messiah
Steve Bannon, in explaining their alliance, called him an armor-piercing shell.

Posted by: persiflo | Nov 25 2023 20:39 utc | 185

Battle for Avdeevka : historical liberation of the industrial zone “Yasinovataya-2”
the situation to an end November 25, 2023
A couple of hours ago, Russian soldiers, during several days of heavy and bloody fighting, cleared the last building in the industrial zone “Yasinovataya-2” in the south of the Avdeevka fortified area .
▪️Since 2014, the industrial zone was held by Ukrainian formations, and now, despite all the fortifications erected and the transfer of reserves, it has come under the complete control of the Russian Army.
▪️This line has not only symbolic significance, but is also important tactically, since it is located on a hill relative to the southern outskirts of Avdiivka . The southern neighborhoods will be shelled from this line, which will worsen the situation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
🔻At the same time, on the northern flank, Russian units also achieved small but extremely important results: servicemen of the Russian Armed Forces were able to gain a foothold near the railway adjacent to the coke plant.
▪️During a successful assault from the gold dump and pumping station, it was possible to completely knock out the enemy from the site and expand the control zone at the plant.
🔻In intercepts of negotiations, Ukrainian formations complain about a lack of support. According to members of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the command completely abandoned the Avdeevka garrison, leaving its subordinates to fend for themselves.
▪️At the same time, the transfer of reinforcements continues. Separate formations of the 116th mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were transferred from the Zaporozhye direction , and the 45th separate rifle battalion was transferred to the subordination of the 31st mechanized brigade due to losses in the brigade.

Posted by: MiniMO | Nov 26 2023 0:15 utc | 187

Posted by: whirlX | Nov 25 2023 20:18 utc | 184
10,000 paratroopers sounds really light for that kind of objective, with significant delay until main force reach them.
You haven’t really clarified what sort of amphibious landing is posited (what sort of force and what ships needed to move them…and does Russia have them in the Black Sea, even).
Add onto that, not clear to me that Russia has sufficient control of the skies or seas in the vicinity of Odessa.

Posted by: Anonymous | Nov 26 2023 1:43 utc | 189

Kennard 183: “If you can’t hold a fortress like Avdeyevka, what can you hold?” – Before they started their offensive it was clear, that they could not defend anything the russians were eagerly to get. But if you can’t successfully defend, how can you think you can successfully attack ?

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Nov 26 2023 8:30 utc | 191

Posted by: the pessimist | Nov 26 2023 1:33 utc | 189
The Soviet doctrine was that a heavy EW environment was a force multiplier for them on two counts. Firstly, Soviet EW was brutal and finesse free, airborne systems were designed to burn out their enemy counterparts radars, ground stations blanket frequency jam. As NATO doctrine relied heavily on integrated radio nets than they would be seriously disrupted by such interference. Conversely the Soviet form of warfare, centralised and pre-planned, relied less on sophisticated systems and even practiced extreme EMCON during some emergency deployment exercises, witnessed by Western military observers. As such, communications systems were often outdated and little changed from the wartime Lend-Lease sets, compared to sophisticated, frequency hopping NATO models; however, this was acceptable as NATO EW capabilities lagged behind. This gap between Russian EW capabilities and C3 capabilities still exists in the SMO, which is why a slow and steady attritional operation conceals or mitigates against this weakness. The Russians had tried to address the vulnerabilities by employing new relay systems but they are largely static platforms, not suited for rapid mobile warfare.
Fast forward nearly two years and the Russians find themselves in a situation they had trained for but cannot use the tactics that training was designed for. The war has devolved into a series of small scale engagements that require good C3 to exploit opportunities generated or halt enemy exploitations and here the inherited Soviet doctrine is creating a decidedly two-edged sword, as both sides now struggle to communicate through the electronic fog. Western systems are leveraging their decades-long electronic superiority and the Russians are building on a strong base of expertise and proven technologies, maximising their air dominance and analysis of captured systems.
Two books on my future reading list, if they ever are published, will be ones about the SMO’s logistical operation on both sides, NATO’s unsung success story and Russia’s awakening, and the secret EW war being waged. Talking of which, I’ve noticed some Russian drones seem to be painted now with radar absorbent paint, my guess is to largely frustrate the Gepard’s search and FC radars. Also lone recce tanks seem to be popping up again, this time shelling positions in southern Avdivka, again I wonder, like their mine clearing counterparts, are these remotely operated vehicles?

Posted by: Milites | Nov 26 2023 12:45 utc | 193