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November 23, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-281
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Experts are beginning to talk about possible options for ending the military conflict in Ukraine. Moreover, less and less people believe in the winning format; more realistic ones are called, but not rosy for Ukraine:
▪️Continuation of military operations to the point of attrition. This is the worst-case scenario, and experts note that for now everything is moving along this trajectory. Thus, a change of power in Western countries will lead to a decrease in support to a level where Ukraine will not be able to continue to fight and will be forced to negotiate peace on the Russian Federation’s terms.
Even if political support remains at current levels, the number of tension points in the world will grow, distracting from Ukraine, and the West’s ability to provide weapons will begin to dry up, and no one will put the American or European economy on a war footing. This scenario means a defeat for Ukraine, which leaves no chance for economic recovery.
▪️”Freezing” of the military conflict. In this scenario, the allies maintain support for Ukraine at approximately the current level in order to prevent the defeat of Ukraine and not to defeat the Russian Federation. Noting the impossibility of achieving success, the Western allies are persuading Ukraine to negotiate a “freeze” of the conflict.
The initiator of the negotiations will be either Biden in the spring or summer of 2024 (he needs to look like a winner in the elections, or at least a peacemaker), or already the winner of the American elections in the spring of 2025. However, after the signing of the peace agreement, both sides of the conflict will begin to intensively prepare for a new round of confrontation, which could occur in 3-7 years.
In the best version of this scenario, Ukraine will modernize well during this time, and Russia will fear a new military conflict, however, there is a version that Ukraine will prepare poorly, and another confrontation with the Russian Federation will lead to its complete defeat and the establishment of a pro-Russian regime in the country.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/20575
Posted by: Down South | Nov 23 2023 14:35 utc | 1
“Unnecessary people”: despite the shortage of personnel in Ukraine, employers are afraid to hire veterans and disabled people. Such trends in the labor market were shown by a study by the Confederation of Employers of Ukraine.
As it turned out, employers fear that when employing veterans, they will be faced with a difficult psycho-emotional state of such workers (79%), alcohol or drug addiction (25%), and conflict (24%).
Another trend in the labor market is the current high level of mistrust between employers and persons with disabilities. The basis of mistrust is the lack of knowledge of employers about these individuals and the not always satisfactory level of their qualifications: 61% noted that they are perceived as “disabled” and “people with communication difficulties,” so employers do not want to hire them.
Note that all this is a big problem for people with disabilities. After all, in Ukraine there are practically no rehabilitation programs for disabled people or they are very expensive, and benefits are not paid to them under various pretexts, and, as we see, finding employment is not very simple. Because of this, people are involved in shady schemes and crime, begging, and the number of drug addicts/alcoholics is growing.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/20574
Posted by: Down South | Nov 23 2023 14:38 utc | 2
🔻West of Krasnogorovka there is movement to the Stepovoe area and further to Berdychi.
At the beginning of November, ours knocked out the AFU from Stepovoye and completely cleared it. But they were in no hurry to gain a foothold, they transferred it to the “gray zone”, retreated to the railway and began to methodically level the first line of defense in the fields in front of Berdychi (green arc No. 1).
🔻And the other day, messages began to arrive that ours were occupying Stepovoye and gaining a foothold.
We transferred the fire of large calibers to the second line (green No. 2). And the first line is “everything” and moved into the “gray zone”. In general, these 1st and 2nd lines of defense are natural lowlands formed by the runoff of water from the fields.
🔻North of Krasnogorovka: Novokalinovo-Keramik are located in the lowland (170m). Ours surrounded them along the perimeter. As you can see, we occupied all the hills (230m) and stood up. To the northwest of Krasnogorovka there is a large natural SD “ZhD Razvilka”, and behind it is the Ocheretino unloading station, and two supply lines: the first to Berdychi and the second to Novokalinovo (blue lines).
For several days this UR is also leveled very tightly, the crest constantly brings up the infantry, making up for the losses.
Something tells me that the main blow will be delivered specifically to the “Railway Fork” missile defense zone, with the blossoming of a flower of several petals. Perhaps even without going to Ocheretino. Then strike on the northern part of the second line of defense, protecting the left flank.
At the first stage – taking supply roads to Berdychi and Novokalinovo under fire control, and then at the second stage – cutting and blocking them. After which, the function of the Ocheretino railway station, as a logistics hub for Novokalinovo and, most importantly, for Berdychi (and therefore the whole of Avdeyevka), is completely lost. Plus, Berdychi, a key position for the entire Avdeyevsky Front, will be captured.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/75217
Posted by: Down South | Nov 23 2023 14:47 utc | 3
AFU is talking about a killing ratio of 20:1
“The amount of killed Russian soldiers around Avdiivka is unique.
Talked to a Ukrainian officer yday who told me the death ratio since early October is around 20:1 in favor of the AFU. “Even better than in Bakhmut”, he said, while admitting the Russians advance – at that cost(!).”
https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1727272659606786329
“During some Russian attacks between Vodyane and Sjeverne “they lost 100 and we lost zero”, he said, while emphasizing that “this advantage will cease, once they reach the city”.
In his view, Avdiivka will “lose its strategic value” when the ratio starts to shift towards 1:1.”
https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1727273695230734598
Did AFU really lost less than Russia incl Wagner in Bakhmut?
PS: I know who Roepcke is
Posted by: Ali | Nov 23 2023 15:18 utc | 4
Two recent examples show how Ukrainians are extremely motivated to fight to bitter death. Latest Simplicitus the Thinker has shown an interview with Ukro soldier who lost his legs but would like to fight again. And today Dima has shown trenches full of Ukrainian women fighting Russians and throwing hand grenades.
They may be stupid, but their spirit is fascinating.
Posted by: zorge | Nov 23 2023 15:39 utc | 5
Cockroach Tactics
Report from the front November 22, 2023
Defense Minister Shoigu said that the Ukrop landing operation near Kherson was completely disrupted.
Those who directly know the situation at the front understand that there is some ironic meaning in this.
The fact is that for about a month, dill in a fairly large area of our defense along the Dnieper – from Kherson to Krynki (more than 30 kilometers), taking advantage of the difficult topography, in small groups of a maximum of three people, tried to cross to our shore in boats.
In the military, this tactic is called cockroaching.
To understand the analogy, imagine that you are standing with a slipper in front of a baseboard from which small groups of insects are climbing.
You swing the slipper, hit the pests and hit them, but they still climb. Some of them still sneak around and try to hide somewhere.
The analogy is complete – approximately half of the landing party died along the way. The rest tried to bury themselves on the swampy shore, hide in fox holes, hide in bushes and reed fields. One – two people. That is, they literally crawled into all the cracks.
We must remember that this happened over a fairly large perimeter – several tens of kilometers. That is, the calculation of the stubborn Ukrop command was that we would not chase every cockroach. Someone will hide in some hole.
For three weeks, according to the Russian command of the southern (Kherson) direction, they tried to transport dill to our shore in this way about a battalion. These were the remnants, by the way, of the best units of the Ukrainian Marines.
Half of them died while trying to cross the Dnieper. Moreover, many died simply because the Dnieper River in this place was often stormy in the autumn.
The remains did not even try to accumulate, but crawled along the shore towards the village of Cossack Camps and the Antonovsky Bridge (the bridge across the Dnieper opposite Kherson).
These units, or rather individual groups, did not even try to engage in combat or go beyond the coastal strip. All of them were armed with small arms with limited ammunition.
The prisoners later said that they were given the task of gathering at certain points in the area of the bridge, and there the task was to be clarified. That is, there was no talk of any kind of creating a bridgehead here, both in terms of the task at hand and based on the profile of the groups’ weapons.
Then a logical question remains: why did the Ukrainians take all these actions? Obviously, this is again a purely propaganda action, like taking photographs with the Ukrainian flag in a recognizable place on the coast of Crimea.
And the second reason is that the Ukrop command is clearly afraid that ours will begin an operation to cross the Dnieper. We have a powerful 100,000 strong force here – clearly a strike force in terms of profile. The only thing that holds her is the Dnieper. Behind which the dill have practically no fortified area.
That’s why the Ukrainians are running along our shore to prevent us from starting this operation. Which, let me emphasize once again, is potentially very probable. Actually, all these weeks our troops, relatively speaking, watched with great surprise the running of dill along our shore and patiently waited for them to finally begin to accumulate somewhere.
But in the end, patience ran out – ours brought in heavy flamethrower systems and burned everything that was possible to hell. Which, in fact, is what Shoigu stated.
Here we must also take into account that in the neighboring direction – in Zaporozhye, things for the Ukrainians are literally getting worse every day. Ours, as already mentioned, are actively expanding their zone of control along the Shaitanka River (Novodonetskoye area) towards Urozhaynoye and Velikaya Novoselovka.
On the other side of the Vremevsky ledge, also in the direction of Staromayorsky and Urozhayny, ours are conducting military operations, advancing from the village of Polesie.
During these days, at this line, ours destroyed a platoon strong point and fifteen enemy infantry.
Our troops also reached the Malinovka-Chervonnoe line (Gulyai Polye area). This is a very important milestone, since here we are creating a threat to the Gulyai Pole – Velikaya Novoselovka road.
That is, if we assess the situation comprehensively, then our troops seize the initiative on the northern flank of the entire Zaporozhye direction, creating the threat of a breakthrough towards the most important Ukrainian supply line Pokrovskoye-Kurakhovo, which supports the entire Ukrainian front from Zaporozhye to the Yuzhnodonetsk direction (Ugledarskoe).
Also unexpectedly for the enemy, for several days now ours have continued to demonstrate activity on the other flank of the Zaporozhye direction – near Pyatikhatki. Here we advanced about 500 meters more on a front about 4 kilometers wide. In just one day, 130 enemy personnel were destroyed in the Zaporozhye direction.
In general, in Zaporozhye, as elsewhere along the front, a complex tactical game is taking place, as a result of which our troops are solving problems (taking, for example, more advantageous positions) and are clearly preparing for some large operations for the winter period.
voenkorkhayrullin
Posted by: maratpost | Nov 23 2023 15:49 utc | 6
Another video of RBK-500 cluster bombs. These bombs of warheads definitely have adjustable deployment patterns, either a number of different carrier cases or a dial in patterns. Those used in this video show a very short but wide rectangle or oval, whereas in an earlier video, they showed very long narrow rectangles and near straight single file lines.
https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1727333813200789844
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 23 2023 15:59 utc | 7
zorge@5…..with the right cocktail combination of drugs everyone becomes Super Person. Watch vids of meth heads taking several shots or tazer blasts before they succumb and they don’t wear body armour.
Buddy has his leg ripped of by 50cal likely, steps on a mine gets his other foot blown off lands face down on another mine which detonates and flips him over and, he lives…..just not sure who to cast in the leading role.
Cheers M
Gramps and his men always got their two shots of rum before they charged out of their trenches, goes with the job.
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Nov 23 2023 16:05 utc | 8
Re: Posted by: Down South | Nov 23 2023 14:35 utc | 1
The initiator of the negotiations will be either Biden in the spring or summer of 2024 (he needs to look like a winner in the elections, or at least a peacemaker), or already the winner of the American elections in the spring of 2025. However, after the signing of the peace agreement, both sides of the conflict will begin to intensively prepare for a new round of confrontation, which could occur in 3-7 years.
In the best version of this scenario, Ukraine will modernize well during this time, and Russia will fear a new military conflict, however, there is a version that Ukraine will prepare poorly, and another confrontation with the Russian Federation will lead to its complete defeat and the establishment of a pro-Russian regime in the country.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/20575
Russia would be INCREDIBLY FOOLISH to sign any peace agreement with the USA regarding Ukraine until they control every bit of Ukraine that they want – and ideally that would include a land corridor to Hungary/Ukraine.
Anything short of this will be a strategic defeat of Russia – and viewed that way by the West.
The West doesn’t need Eastern Ukraine – but they’re happy to fight for it at low cost – as they’re doing now!
Posted by: Julian | Nov 23 2023 16:06 utc | 9
“They may be stupid, but their spirit is fascinating”.
Not sure about that. Yes, everyone admires courage and the Ukrainians have shown they have that in spades. But putting boys and women (some even pregnant!) in the trenches is where my admiration ends. At this point, it’s just blind hatred and total brainwashing.
When a war is lost and it is clear that there is no way to reverse the situation, real men get in touch with reality and start talking about peace.
I have admired the way the Ukrainians have fought up to now. But this here is not heroism. It is Volkssturm mentality.
Posted by: Augusto Pi | Nov 23 2023 16:14 utc | 10
Imo the Russians should do like Grant against Lee, just keep up the pressure, don’t let the Ukies rest.
Posted by: Morongobill | Nov 23 2023 16:14 utc | 11
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4321534-as-long-as-it-takes-isnt-good-enough-whats-the-endgame-in-ukraine/
A profound example of the empty headed “thinking” by yet another Ph.D “expert”. So, the US must explain what its goal in Ukraine is? The public must be convinced to keep supporting Ukraine.
And what IS THAT ENDGAME ? Could someone at least suggest what it is? Offer a rationale? I can hardly believe this bullsh*t in which persons of academic attainment are simply unable to articulate the matter in a simple sentence.
Posted by: Eighthman | Nov 23 2023 16:24 utc | 12
Russia would be INCREDIBLY FOOLISH to sign any peace agreement with the USA regarding Ukraine until they control every bit of Ukraine that they want – and ideally that would include a land corridor to Hungary/Ukraine.
Anything short of this will be a strategic defeat of Russia – and viewed that way by the West.
The West doesn’t need Eastern Ukraine – but they’re happy to fight for it at low cost – as they’re doing now!
Posted by: Julian | Nov 23 2023 16:06 utc | 9
Agreed. Russia won’t accept anything less than unconditional surrender.
US is not agreement capable or worthy, Ukr is on the ropes, Russia has invested much & too much is at stake to back down now.
But USUKUKR can go on lying to themselves, to Russia’s benefit while they Ukr continues to exsanguinate.
Posted by: Mary | Nov 23 2023 16:25 utc | 13
@ 11.
The US Civil War is a fitting comparison.
The CSA was clearly a rotten, corrupt oligarchy popularly mobilized by a false premise of sovereignty and whose socioeconomics etc were obfuscated by race hatred.
It was also equipped by Union legacy and foreign arms, because it couldn’t manufacture nearly enough on it’s own.
The AFU is in around the same shape the CSA was around the time of Vicksburg & Gettysburg. It has some residual strength and may appear superficialy strong, but is actually steadily hollowing out.
Because the war is clearly of an attritional nature that cannot be won by the far smaller, poorer, worse governed and internally divided side.
And there’s no possibilities within tactical, strategic or diplomatic realms, that’ll change that.
Posted by: Urban Fox | Nov 23 2023 16:40 utc | 15
And today Dima has shown trenches full of Ukrainian women fighting Russians and throwing hand grenades.
They may be stupid, but their spirit is fascinating.
Posted by: zorge | Nov 23 2023 15:39 utc | 5
Remember that completely mutilated US Marine who said “it was worth it” ?
I you have lost so much the path to your loss must have been worth it.
Else you could as well commit suicide.
( and I do wonder how long they had to go around and find someone to show that “spirit”.)
Posted by: MAKK | Nov 23 2023 16:46 utc | 16
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Nov 23 2023 16:27 utc | 15
i think it was obviously sarcasm.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Nov 23 2023 16:52 utc | 17
#11 “Rooskies should do like Grant against Lee……”
This analogy is almost exact. Locate a copy of Bonekemper’s “How Robert E Lee Lost the Civil War”.
If Lee had stayed on his side of the Potomac and played defense, the South could have held out indefinitely. Instead the vain incompetent old fool insisted on going on the offensive, taking the fight to the North with its larger manpower, army, and industrial base. Yes, the egotistical Lee inflicted massive casualties on the North at places like Gettysburg, Pennsylvannia, but also suffered an almost equal number of casualties which he could ill afford. His stupidity also made it impossible to reach a compromise with the North, as after such massive casualties public opinion in the North demanded victory and revenge…..resulting eventually in Sherman’s scorch earth March to the Sea and the South’s total defeat. The moronic drug addled Ukie nazis and their vile globohomoshlomo enablers have made the same exact mistake with their suicidal 2023 offensive…..making any kind of compromise impossible and ensuring their eventual total defeat. Ukiestan will eventually be carved up by its abutting neighbors Russia, Poland, Hungry, Romania, Moldavia, Belarus like today’s Thanksgiving day turkey. The blood thirsty globohomoshlomos know this and have already moved to their next murderous project.
Posted by: 24ouncer | Nov 23 2023 16:58 utc | 18
@Posted by: Ali | Nov 23 2023 15:18 utc | 4
As crazy as it sounds, it does make sense. How else can Ukraine still be in this fight?
Posted by: bored | Nov 23 2023 16:58 utc | 19
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 23 2023 15:59 utc | 7
These big cluster bombs are being delivered by glide kits so, if nothing else, the speed, altitude and dive angle of the bomb at the moment of detonation can be used to greatly influence the resulting impact distribution of bomblets.
Assuming the RBK-500 disperses bomblets in a roughly ellipsoid pattern, a vertical dive should produce a circular impact distribution whereas a low, fast, horizontal flight path should produce an elongated eclipse distribution, or something in between.
The glide kits should be able to manoeuvre in order to approach a target area on a flight path that produces an advantageous bomblet distribution.
Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 23 2023 17:02 utc | 20
@ zorge | Nov 23 2023 15:39 utc | 5
If they insist on dying, Russia will have less to worry about when it’s all over.
Posted by: malenkov | Nov 23 2023 17:12 utc | 21
In the CIA MI6 run Guardian today:
“Timothy Snyder argues that ‘dropping five more queens on the board’ would allow Ukraine to prevail.”
Apparently this imperial intellectual with a hard on for replaying WW2 on the side of the Nazis still sees great opportunity for a Ukrainian victory. The guy has got to be a hard drug user to sustain this level of optimism amidst the hard material reality on the battlefield.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Nov 23 2023 17:14 utc | 22
Breaking news. Ukraine has recycled half of the US aid to US treasury bonds, now totaling $24.5 billion.
https://twitter.com/AlternatNews/status/1727362863214301423
https://bnn.network/politics/ukraines-us-debt-portfolio-surges-amid-conflict/
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 23 2023 17:15 utc | 23
Apparently this imperial intellectual with a hard on for replaying WW2 on the side of the Nazis still sees great opportunity for a Ukrainian victory. The guy has got to be a hard drug user to sustain this level of optimism amidst the hard material reality on the battlefield.
I read that pompous blowhard’s take too. If hubris could take human form, this guy would be it. He’s beyond satire. ‘Drop four queens on the board’ the closest this guy has been to war is when he watched Rambo. A fucking professor. What a joke.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Nov 23 2023 17:19 utc | 24
Love the civil war stuff. Would be great to see the noble Russians burn a path to Kiev and put this abortion of a Ukrainian government to bed once and for all times.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Nov 23 2023 17:20 utc | 25
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Nov 23 2023 16:05 utc | 8
################
Tell people the correct lie, and you can get them to do anything fanatically. America has mastered this technique.
Supremacist ideologies often have a suicidal aspect to them.
Drugs are not needed if people are powered by fear and hatred.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Nov 23 2023 17:20 utc | 26
Indeed, demographic exhaustion is EXACTLY how Russia wins this permanently and without any treaty.
What the heck are ‘five more queens’ in the real world? You Tube is loaded with trashy videos about Ukraine’s glorious victories, often featuring a smiling Zaluzhny. Are any of their claims credible in the least? Not if cripples, boys and women are fighting. Not if they draft 17 – 70 yr old men. Not if they complain about low/ammo. Not if their government pledges official suicide (to the last….)
Posted by: Eighthman | Nov 23 2023 17:25 utc | 27
Julian @ 9 / Mary @ 14
Russia would be INCREDIBLY FOOLISH to sign any peace agreement with the USA regarding Ukraine until they control every bit of Ukraine that they want – and ideally that would include a land corridor to Hungary/Ukraine. Anything short of this will be a strategic defeat of Russia – and viewed that way by the West.
A fatal strategic defeat, I agree with the below quote and have figured this regarding Ukraine’s entry into NATO and NATO’s entry into Ukraine since the start of the SMO, articles and charters don’t matter the USA is agreement incapable both externally with foreign policy and internally with domestic policy. Laws and accord were yesterday’s Cold War news, the west now, the USA, and the EU especially thanks to the structurally undemocratic euro makeover, aren’t on the cusp of dictatorship they are well into it. They always were an inverted dictatorship as described by Sheldon Wolin, but since at least 2008 they’ve been working on turning the dictatorship right side up, of course neoliberalism, the petrodollar, financialization, deindustrialization, and permeant austerity economics would demand exactly that, not much point putting lipstick on a pig once the pig is dead.
The decision on Ukraine’s accession to NATO will be made overnight and by that time Kiev will be ready to join the alliance, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olha Stefanyshyna has said https://t.me/tass_agency/219831.
This statement should be taken extremely seriously.
The fact is that a similar statement was made by US President Biden during the NATO summit in Vilnius on 11-12 July 2023. When asked by a journalist how long it would take the West to admit Ukraine to the alliance, he replied: “One hour and twenty minutes”.
The North Atlantic alliance is just waiting for a convenient moment. It is ready to use any freezing of the conflict with Russia or suspension of hostilities for Ukraine’s official accession to NATO. Accordingly, Russia must fully take this factor into account in the course of the SMO. There can be no pause – otherwise we will formally find ourselves in a conflict with a NATO
However, the text https://www.nato.int/cps/ru/SID-36F4D09C-731D53FD/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm?selectedLocale=ru of the North Atlantic Treaty does not contain any restrictions on the admission of a new member even when it is engaged in hostilities with another state. To confirm this, let us turn to Article 10:…
https://t.me/goldgoatsnguns/70196
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 23 2023 17:32 utc | 28
Dick Haas on 404, says stick a fork in it …..hmmm, interesting.
Wonder how many women in 404 trenches will deliver babies who themselves crawl out of those same trenches one day……..
Cheers M
Any negotiation by Russia without the total removal of NATO from the Ukraine will see future Russian children dying for the same cause.
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Nov 23 2023 17:46 utc | 29
As for women in the AFU, the USA and NATO have had women in combat for a couple decades now, though usually in professional positions like helicopter and transport plane pilots. Female soldiers fought in battles in Iraq and Afghanistan though on a very small scale. The AFU is built on NATO standards (lucky them) so I’m not surprised to see some female soldiers, however this late in the game does raise eyebrows. Maybe we are only noting them now as the bodies pile up.
To be fair, thousands of Russian women fought in WW2 as partisans and even soldiers, and my own mother was a partisan in WW2, so, more power to the ladies – but, it helps if you are fighting on the right side, for the right cause, certainly not for a fascist puppet regine of a desperate fascist superpower, otherwise barefoot, pregnant, and in the kitchen is actually the correct choice.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 23 2023 17:48 utc | 30
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 23 2023 17:32 utc | 29
Ukraine “joining Nato” or “not joining Nato” is irrelevant IMO. As we have seen throughout the history of Nato, article 5 only applies to adversaries who are 1 / 20 strength of Nato. Not adversaries, who are 4x more strong or even more, like Russia.
That is why Ukraine will never join Nato, even if they make some sort of agreement with Russia. Otherwise Ukraine joining Nato will lead to the dissolution of Nato when push comes to shove. And US will never make Ukraine join Nato unless they have some sort of backroom agreement with Russia, which is highly unlikely to exist.
There’s no need to talk to Kiev puppet masters or any lunacon in Washington.
I believe the single most important meter is now the amount of surrenders from AFU. Krynky is pretty much a done deal at this point, as long as RUAF keeps hitting the supply boats in the Dniepr. The one who can retain long range counter artillery superiority will win. Drones like lancets hitting the AFU artillery will win. Without artillery support and counter-artillery, all those trenches simply turn into open air POW camps, waiting to be mopped up at convenience.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 23 2023 17:48 utc | 31
TO: Posted by: Down South | Nov 23 2023 14:35 utc | 1
Only in the deluded minds of the half-witted West does Putin agree to anything like this.
The future of The Ukraine is that of a farm-stand in a Polish suburb.
Posted by: Bilejones | Nov 23 2023 17:58 utc | 32
“If Lee had stayed on his side of the Potomac and played defense, the South could have held out indefinitely. Instead the vain incompetent old fool insisted on going on the offensive, taking the fight to the North with its larger manpower, army, and industrial base.”
Posted by: 24ouncer | Nov 23 2023 16:58 utc | 19
I disagree. The Union , just like Russia today, had/has time on their side. They had the industrial base, the population and the wealth that the South did not. Lee, an excellent commander, knew that he had to win quickly and proceeded accordingly; and if a couple of things went differently at the Battle Gettysburg the South would probably been victorious.
Are you aware that Arlington Cemetary was a gift to the US from General Lee as he had owned that land?
Posted by: canuck | Nov 23 2023 18:02 utc | 34
Ukraine, like general Lee, knows that time is not on their side. That is precisely why they tried the quick win, culminating in the spring offensive. Sometime during the end of July the sponsors began to quickly lose interest.
Zelensky and top brass in Ukraine are completely freaking out because there’s nothing they can do anymore, not least for personal reasons. In fact, 17 year olds and women are being conscripted because of personal reasons of Zelensky, Podolyak, Danilov and Ermak related to wealth and their personal security. As long as the war goes on, they are relatively safe and wealth can still be plundered and shipped abroad.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 23 2023 18:09 utc | 34
canuck @ 34
Are you aware that Arlington Cemetary was a gift to the US from General Lee as he had owned that land
I recall the opposite, that a Union general after the Battle of the Wilderness appropriated the estate and intentionally turned it into a cemetery for that battle’s vast dead as a spite to Lee ensuring that it would be impossible for Lee to ever return home to it after the war. I could look it up but I’m pretty sure.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 23 2023 18:27 utc | 35
Russia would be INCREDIBLY FOOLISH to sign any peace agreement with the USA regarding Ukraine until they control every bit of Ukraine that they want – and ideally that would include a land corridor to Hungary/Ukraine. Anything short of this will be a strategic defeat of Russia – and viewed that way by the West. The West doesn’t need Eastern Ukraine – but they’re happy to fight for it at low cost – as they’re doing now!
Posted by: Julian | Nov 23 2023 16:06 utc | 9
They would sign it but no one is offering. You don’t know what they consider an acceptable deal but it’s clear they are not receiving any deals, not now anyway.
The West really wanted Donbass and Zap regions, where most resources are and reasons for all sorts of sanctions. Shoigu said the smo will last a few years and it’s probably true because they’ve only recruited around 400k amateurs this year and I think they said they want at least 400k more. The days of “nato go back” are gone, it’s complete silence now. They’ve realized that currently they have no army, no generals with brain, no means of economic pressure, no leverage.
Posted by: rk | Nov 23 2023 18:28 utc | 36
BTW Gen. Longstreet Lee’s right hand man counseled Lee exactly that, about going on defense, and attriting the North, both military and in political will. Longstreet lived a long time and never veered from believing that attrition was the only possible way to win. He was shunned in the South after the war for his stand as having been unfaithful if not treacherous to Lee, but has been redeemed in modern scholarship as maybe the most capable general in the confederacy. I also see a strong comparison between Ukraine and the Civil War, I wonder if the MoD have studied it, I’m pretty sure the Pentagon hasn’t.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 23 2023 18:39 utc | 37
Any serious attempt to get Ukraine into NATO while combat operations continue will fail, and spell the end of NATO sooner rather than later. Will Turkiye and Hungary allow Ukrainian accession? Absolutely not. It’s difficult to see anyone on that side of the Atlantic going along with that proposal, as they are all within easy Kinzhal range of Russian forces already. Never mind Sarmat. Even if Turkiye and Hungary allowed Ukraine to join, who would do anything they aren’t already doing in support of Article V? It’s absurd. The entire west can’t defeat Russia without destroying themselves and the entire world in the process. Even the running dogs ruling Europe on Washington’s behalf don’t want that- they won’t survive it and if they did, there would be nothing left to rule.
Posted by: Honzo | Nov 23 2023 18:42 utc | 38
Alex C quoted Shigou where Ukie suffered 13k casualties in the first three weeks of MowVember. Regardless of +/- %s that’s still high, even half dead half almost dead is high. Is that sustainable with bigger and badder FABs on the way? Maybe Russia could name the FABs after the famous Fabs, the LeandOn, the HarrasedSon, the StarKey, and the McCarpenter, Mr Maxwell.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Nov 23 2023 18:44 utc | 39
anon2020 | Nov 23 2023 17:02 utc | 21
It could be but width would remain roughly the same, only difference the letterbombs would be scattered over a longer strip. Here we are seeing long very narrow strips and shirt wide distribution patterns. Cluster bombs like that usually have a dispersal mechanism other than explosive dispersal which would be relativity easy to include adjustments of the dispersal. If electro mechanical, then adjustment could be made from the aircraft before launch, if mechanical then adjustment would occur on the ground.
Most Russian military equipment has been upgraded from the Soviet systems so it is possible these are upgraded old stock or a new improved version.
In saying that, according to this German language wiki entry, it is explosive dispersal, two basic models of RBK-500 then other designation according to munitions carried. Different dispersal patterns according flight path and speed which is similar to what you are saying. https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/RBK-500
I guess it may be possible to adjust the with of dispersal by adjusting altitude. High altitude for wide dispersal, low altitude for narrow dispersal.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 23 2023 19:06 utc | 40
Ukraine spent nearly half of Washington’s aid on US debt bonds
https://www.rt.com/business/587786-ukraine-us-aid-securities/
Self licking ice cream cone, looks like chocolate but it’s dog shit. Not surprising and no worse than any other of the neoliberal Fed scams. If you win WW3 no one will ask where the money came from and went to, if you lose, who cares?
Bet the Biden admin regrets having taken down FTX, with the no paperwork, instant transfer, grift channel eliminated they’ll have to haul it out in suitcases and duffel bags. 10% is HEAVY, easy to pull a muscle for those limp-wristed elite milquetoasts, can’t trust a suitcase of money to a sherpa, that’s why they fly into Kiev one after another every month. Austin looks like he can still lift a heavy duffle bag.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 23 2023 19:10 utc | 41
Posted by: Eighthman | Nov 23 2023 17:25 utc | 28
Straight up military victory for Ukraine is outside of the current mix of weapons and preponderance of forces, obviously, but there are still aspects that shouldn’t be overlooked.
1. There has never been a greater discrepancy between the technology on and off the battlefield. The most numerous and effective drones are little more than contemporary hobbyists toys, that would have been laughed out of the room 10 years ago, rigged with military grenades of one type or another. There’s no point talking about Russia’s unique “heavy metal” offensive systems because they can’t defend the guys being swallowed up in this war of shrapnel and septicaemia or protect the BSF from drone boat attack.
2. There are plenty of western weapons yet to be fed into the conflict. 910 Taurus cruise missiles, just for starters, plus many other types of missiles that would undoubtedly cause more damage to Russian interests than they cost to produce and deploy, which is the only figure of merit in attritional warfare.
3. Terrorism: Kakhovka HPP should not be forgotten. ZNPP has faded out of the news but not because it magically became impervious to attack. The last piece of news in this context was that the dam upstream of ZNPP had been mined with demolition changes. What effect its sudden breach would have on ZNPP or anything else downstream I have been unable to ascertain.
None of this requires conventional demographic support from Ukrainians.
Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 23 2023 19:11 utc | 42
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Nov 23 2023 17:14 utc | 23
“Timothy Snyder argues that ‘dropping five more queens on the board’ would allow Ukraine to prevail.”
For Mr Snyder a killed Ukrainian is as good as a killed Russian. It’s a win-win.
Posted by: Jan Sobieski | Nov 23 2023 19:15 utc | 43
Posted by: canuck | Nov 23 2023 18:02 utc | 34
Ukraine, like general Lee, knows that time is not on their side. That is precisely why they tried the quick win, culminating in the spring offensive. Sometime during the end of July the sponsors began to quickly lose interest.
Zelensky and top brass in Ukraine are completely freaking out because there’s nothing they can do anymore, not least for personal reasons. In fact, 17 year olds and women are being conscripted because of personal reasons of Zelensky, Podolyak, Danilov and Ermak related to wealth and their personal security. As long as the war goes on, they are relatively safe and wealth can still be plundered and shipped abroad.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 23 2023 18:09 utc | 35
Totally agree.
canuck @ 34
Are you aware that Arlington Cemetary was a gift to the US from General Lee as he had owned that land
I recall the opposite, that a Union general after the Battle of the Wilderness appropriated the estate and intentionally turned it into a cemetery for that battle’s vast dead as a spite to Lee ensuring that it would be impossible for Lee to ever return home to it after the war. I could look it up but I’m pretty sure.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 23 2023 18:27 utc | 36
No it was Robert E. Lee porperty even his mansionArlington encompasses a 624-acre plot of land that sits just west of the Potomac River from the nation’s capital. From the hilltop, you can see the Lincoln Memorial, the Jefferson Memorial, and the Pentagon. On that same hilltop rests Arlington House. This Greek revival style mansion is more than 200 years old, and is now officially designated as the Robert E. Lee Memorial.
“Wait. How is it that America’s national military cemetery, which was established during the Civil War, has a memorial to the commanding general of the Confederate Army? Because Robert E. Lee used to own the mansion and the lands upon which Arlington was founded.”
https://www.realclearhistory.com/historiat/2018/05/09/how_robert_e_lees_home_became_arlington_national_cemetery_305.html
And what IS THAT ENDGAME ? Could someone at least suggest what it is? Offer a rationale? I can hardly believe this bullsh*t in which persons of academic attainment are simply unable to articulate the matter in a simple sentence.
Posted by: Eighthman | Nov 23 2023 16:24 utc | 13
There is no plan because nobody is in charge. The west doesn’t have leaders, it has a tangled knot of marionettes all pulling each other’s strings. There aren’t strategies or long terms plans. In their place are slogans, PR, and quick fixes jostling and scrambling to try to game some short term wins, like the next election or quarterly results.
Posted by: team10tim | Nov 23 2023 19:33 utc | 46
Eighthman | Nov 23 2023 17:25 utc | 28
“Not if they draft 17 – 70 yr old men. “
Someone will tell me if I’m wrong, but I thought that 27 was the lowest draft age until very recently, when it was lowered to 25. So Ukraine have been relying on family types to do the fighting, not young guys as in Western tradition.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Nov 23 2023 19:40 utc | 47
To be fair, thousands of Russian women fought in WW2 as partisans and even soldiers, and my own mother was a partisan in WW2, so, more power to the ladies – but, it helps if you are fighting on the right side, for the right cause, certainly not for a fascist puppet regine of a desperate fascist superpower, otherwise barefoot, pregnant, and in the kitchen is actually the correct choice.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 23 2023 17:48 utc | 31
Famous video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5–5t0lz0UI
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Nov 23 2023 19:43 utc | 48
“Timothy Snyder argues that ‘dropping five more queens on the board’ would allow Ukraine to prevail.”
Apparently this imperial intellectual with a hard on for replaying WW2 on the side of the Nazis still sees great opportunity for a Ukrainian victory. The guy has got to be a hard drug user to sustain this level of optimism amidst the hard material reality on the battlefield.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Nov 23 2023 17:14 utc | 23
Timothy Snyder back in 2010:
https://www.nybooks.com/online/2010/02/24/a-fascist-hero-in-democratic-kiev/
A Fascist Hero in Democratic Kiev
Timothy Snyder
The incoming Ukrainian president will have to turn some attention to history, because the outgoing one has just made a hero of a long-dead Ukrainian fascist. By conferring the highest state honor of “Hero of Ukraine” upon Stepan Bandera (1909-1959) on January 22, Viktor Yushchenko provoked protests from the chief rabbi of Ukraine, the president of Poland, and many of his own citizens. It is no wonder. Bandera aimed to make of Ukraine a one-party fascist dictatorship without national minorities. During World War II, his followers killed many Poles and Jews. Why would President Yushchenko, the leader of the democratic Orange Revolution, wish to rehabilitate such a figure? Bandera, who spent years in Polish and Nazi confinement, and died at the hands of the Soviet KGB, is for some Ukrainians a symbol of the struggle for independence during the twentieth century.
February 24, 2010
Looks like there has been some “evolution” in his views.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Nov 23 2023 19:44 utc | 49
“There is no plan because nobody is in charge. The west doesn’t have leaders, it has a tangled knot of marionettes all pulling each other’s strings. There aren’t strategies or long terms plans. In their place are slogans, PR, and quick fixes jostling and scrambling to try to game some short term wins, like the next election or quarterly results.”
Posted by: team10tim | Nov 23 2023 19:33 utc | 47
Such a succinct comment and describing the West political stance perfectly.
Thanks!
Because, if we’re honest, isnt Trump really a leftist rather than a reactionary (at least rhetoricall)?
Posted by: ZT | Nov 23 2023 18:41 utc | 40
Whatever Trump is, it is not leftist. Trump is 100% elitist, him being the elite.
Posted by: Bemildred | Nov 23 2023 20:11 utc | 51
Posted by: Eighthman | Nov 23 2023 17:25 utc | 28
I do like well done satire. Play again soon.
Posted by: Bilejones | Nov 23 2023 20:30 utc | 52
canuck @ 46
Your link actually backs me up. Staunch unionist quartermaster Gen. Meigs after the Battle of The Wilderness had the dead soldiers buried on the nearby occupied estate as a direct spite to Lee and to humiliate him, whichever way the war went Lee expected to return there, and tough luck with several thousands graves on the front lawn. It was never gifted, Lee’s son was able to win a court case against the US government and accepted appropriate monetary compensation instead of the return of the estate. Had it been a gift he would have turned down the money or given it to charity, a veteran’s charity would have been appropriate as at that point veterans included both sides.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 23 2023 20:37 utc | 53
Whatever Trump is, it is not leftist. Trump is 100% elitist, him being the elite.
Posted by: Bemildred | Nov 23 2023 20:11 utc | 52
I read something about that some time ago, and the focus was trump yearned to be part of the NY elite but the elite weren’t so keen on him joining their club.
The most appropriate quote from said elite in regards to trump that I recall is they are said to have called him “a carnival barking clown.”
But clearly, in America, even a carnival barking clown can be used and promoted by some special interest groups.
All in end of day, he is no 2nd coming of Christ about to lead ‘his people’ to the promised land. He’s more Carpet Bagger than a leader to the days of the founding of America and the pretty tales of George Washington and Valley Forge.
Lot’s of people been taken in by Carpet Baggers, back then and now.
Meanwhile, there’s Genocide Joe at the helm of the Shining City on the Hill.
Posted by: bubbles | Nov 23 2023 20:47 utc | 54
Lot’s of people been taken in by Carpet Baggers, back then and now.
Meanwhile, there’s Genocide Joe at the helm of the Shining City on the Hill.
Posted by: bubbles | Nov 23 2023 20:47 utc | 55
Carpet bagger works, yeah.
Posted by: Bemildred | Nov 23 2023 20:52 utc | 55
What´s the bar´s take on Ashton Forbes and the disappearance of MH370 on March 8th 2014?
An American navy officer, Edward C Lin, was arrested for leaking secret video of what happened.
Forbes concludes the Americans have a weapon (developed from a German WW2 prototype) that can stop missiles, including nukes. This would explain why the Americans appear relatively unconcerned about hypersonics, etc.: they have a method of stopping them.
Posted by: John Marks | Nov 23 2023 21:43 utc | 56
Because, if we’re honest, isnt Trump really a leftist rather than a reactionary (at least rhetoricall)?
Posted by: ZT | Nov 23 2023 18:41 utc | 40
Whatever Trump is, it is not leftist. Trump is 100% elitist, him being the elite.
Posted by: Bemildred | Nov 23 2023 20:11 utc | 52
In my opinion Trump is an asshole; yet I think that’s what the US needs to get back on track; I support the ‘asshole’ because Washington, the Blob, the Deep State all hate him -to me that means he ‘s doing something right.
In my opinion Trump is an asshole; yet I think that’s what the US needs to get back on track; I support the ‘asshole’ because Washington, the Blob, the Deep State all hate him -to me that means he ‘s doing something right.
Posted by: canuck | Nov 23 2023 21:45 utc | 58
Yeah, he is, and that is definitely what he is selling now too. And a crook.
Watching him and the deep state tangle with each other again could be entertaining, but it is unlikely to be good.
I think the US public is desperate for anybody who lets a little bit of reality creep into the narrative, and that is the selling point of guys like Trump and RFKJr. Anybody who says all war all the time is not good has an immediate audience.
Posted by: Bemildred | Nov 23 2023 21:52 utc | 58
bubbles @55
I dunno… most of the Trump supporters that I know think of him more as a Molotov cocktail than a messiah.
Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 23 2023 21:58 utc | 59
i agree with those who say Trump’s main attraction is being a chaos agent. we need more chaos in this rigged system to upset it.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Nov 23 2023 22:25 utc | 60
Since the Odessa oblast borders on the Danube river, would this not allow Russia to have a direct link to Hungary and Serbia, via ships traveling up and down the Danube?
Does a land bridge give sufficiently better communication that Russia need to take more land from western ukraine.
The Danube commission regulating traffic on the Danube, include Russia.
Posted by: James j | Nov 23 2023 22:34 utc | 61
Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 23 2023 21:58 utc | 60
Yup, some posters here regurgitate opinions about Trump from sources they ordinarily would ignore (esp about Ukraine). Trump is seen by many of his supporters as their murder weapon, or battering ram to take out, take down the people they think have betrayed their country. He’s not a political leader now, he’s transformed into the head of a socio-political movement, even some anti-Trump leftists realise he’s the best hope to reset America.
Opinions about him, often voiced here, like crook, carnival barker, orange idiot, elitist, carpet-bagger, are all irrelevant, either coping reflexes, passive displays of intellectual superiority, a desire for validation, or an urge to force him into a mould he has grown out off. He is an idea, a hope, an embodiment of a dream, a belief that is growing to a near-unstoppable force, the closest modern parallel I have seen are the revolutionary leaders who over-threw or negotiated the removal of the colonial authorities. Love him, loathe him, it matters not, he is now the most consequential leader the Western world has today, even in his absence the globalists are terrified of him, and that gives hope to many.
Posted by: Milites | Nov 23 2023 22:36 utc | 62
reply to 43
Your point about drones is interesting – and all the more so if a recent development is being judged correctly. There is discussion about Russian drones now having night vision – with horrific effects on Ukr. attacks that already are virtual suicide.
I believe this war upsets military doctrine and education profoundly. If there is no surprise or concealment, what’s left? Only the hard and cold calculus of x vs y numbers meeting on the battlefield with the outcome determined. Consider the use of drones now against tanks in Gaza.
It’s revolution time. The US/EU isn’t prepared for this and their NATO training is bogus. Not only that, but we haven’t even begun to see what AI can do. Imagine a sky above an aircraft carrier darkened by AI drones who hunt down everyone on board, leaving the ship drifting derelict.
And the funding and R&D for this? Easily disguised within videogame development !
Posted by: Eighthman | Nov 23 2023 22:54 utc | 63
Milites @63
Sometimes the movement is more than the man. That was certainly true of the movement that started around Bernie Sanders’ presidential run in 2016. I don’t see any coherent organization in the movement supporting Trump, but then again, maybe that is a good thing? I keep hearing thinkers I respect refer to the approach of some sort of cultural singularity; some kind of societal transformation that originates from the noosphere or something like that. I must admit I don’t really understand that, since my understanding of positive and conscious social change involves ever-elevating levels of deliberate and relatively arduous organization. But if a change like those thinkers suggest is approaching, wouldn’t it look something like a movement without any apparent formal organization? Kinda like the wave Trump is riding?
Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 23 2023 23:19 utc | 64
Posted by: maratpost | Nov 23 2023 15:49 utc | 6
Just a reminder – when cleaning up automatically translated texts: “Dill” is literal translation of “Ukrop” – the slang pejorative for Ukronazis. “Khokhol” (chub, osledets) is a more neutral historical slang for Ukrainians.
Ukrainians use the terms “katsap” (an ethnic slur for Russians, historical, probably from “tsap” (goat)), “moskal'” (soft L at the end, means Muscovite), “vatnik” (the thick outer coat stuffed with cotton, used to be very common in colder parts of Russia in the army, construction and other outdoor workers), and “orc”/”ork” (self-explanatory, as a lot of Ukrainian propaganda borrows from epic fiction imagery).
It would also help to replace the “enemy” and “us”/”our” with more specific designation, as both sides are using these terms, and it can get rather confusing.
Posted by: averros | Nov 23 2023 23:48 utc | 65
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81dL8XNkjzQ
“The Fall ; Eastern Avdiivka Has Fallen. Krinky Is A Ukrainian Nightmare. Military Summary 2023.11.23”
Posted by: Naive | Nov 23 2023 23:56 utc | 66
◾Ukrainian POW Stanislav Kadolov refused to fight after conscription. For this, he served six months in a Ukrainian pre-trial detention center, but after he was still sent to the front line and used as cannon fodder:
– I was detained during the curfew.
Law enforcement guys issued me a draft notice… I arrived at the draft office, they immediately assigned me a military unit, and was taken there the same day. Straight from the draft office to the military unit… After 10 days we decided that we didn’t want to fight anymore, gave our weapons to the company’s commander, and left.
Overall, around 100 people left the battalion that day… We were locked up, and spent half a year in prison… On the last day of being in prison, a commander arrived and took us to a village called Mezhevoye. I received the uniform there, other clothes, shoes… They gave me a weapon. They told us, “Guys, get ready.” We were 60 people, reservists. And as far as I understand only 2 survived.
https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1727828633870328210
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 24 2023 0:00 utc | 67
“The Fall | Eastern Avdiivka Has Fallen. Krinky Is A Ukrainian Nightmare. Military Summary 2023.11.23”
Posted by: Naive | Nov 24 2023 0:02 utc | 68
Send Joe, kamala, Barry and hillary…
That would be justice.
Posted by: Robert Hope | Nov 24 2023 0:16 utc | 69
Russia would be INCREDIBLY FOOLISH to sign any peace agreement with the USA regarding Ukraine
Posted by: Julian | Nov 23 2023 16:06 utc | 9
One has to admire your ability to twist everything according to your agenda.
Dropping the previous goal of “settlling everything on the battlefield”, America started pushing for talks. For you this is only the couse to talk about Russia’s foolishness.
Are there any possible signs that Russia is going to accept America’s terms in any treaty? None whatsoever. But anyway you talk about Russia’s foolishness. You coulda easely phrase it like “America is INCREDIBLY FOOLISH to think that Russia would sign any peace agreement with the USA”, that might be more relevant and based on facts, but you want to talk about Russia’s foolishness.
Posted by: Poslan1 | Nov 24 2023 0:25 utc | 70
Posted by: Milites | Nov 23 2023 22:36 utc | 63
Damn straight. thank you for the level headed response. what i was going to compose was not so printable.
Posted by: frkorz | Nov 24 2023 0:42 utc | 71
New types of AI controlled swarm Lancet drones.
https://twitter.com/vicktop55/status/1727576701004140621
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 24 2023 0:43 utc | 72
by James j | Nov 23 2023 22:34 utc | 62
Since the Odessa oblast borders on the Danube river, would this not allow Russia to have a direct link to Hungary and Serbia, via ships traveling up and down the Danube?
Does a land bridge give sufficiently better communication that Russia need to take more land from western ukraine.
The Danube commission regulating traffic on the Danube, include Russia.
You are right.
This push would end the war and probably NATO would concede in humiliation.
In the old Cold War planning this was the dangerous passage, as is today and was, even before in 19th century wars. It is called Focșani Gate.
Russia gets total Black Sea control, gets very close to Eastern Central Europe routes and connects to Transnistria, neutering Moldova along. For RF that is a total win. For the NATO? A Five Point Palm Exploding Heart punch.
Posted by: whirlX | Nov 24 2023 0:54 utc | 73
What is the story with the very high lower bound for age of conscription in Ukraine? It’s just unusual. Wonder the story.
Issue was brought up on the WOTR podcast and Michael Koffman ducked the question with some comment about “it’s sensitive”. Well, it’s interesting. Who cares if it’s sensitive? Then again, these think tank guys know who pays the bills…and thus why we have such shaded commentary, vice straight analysis.
Posted by: Anonymous | Nov 24 2023 1:47 utc | 74
Some videos for today.
The Kiev regime continues using NATO-supplied weapons to shell civilian residential housing in Donetsk:
https://rutube.ru/video/385b04309c9fae28a2b1c05648504f1b/
Russian airborne forces destroy enemy armored vehicle with buggy-mounted ATGM on the Zaporozhye front:
https://rutube.ru/video/85a6ce1800b4b9668157733e5fbe0dca/
Russian drones pound enemy trench in the northern DPR:
https://rutube.ru/video/34c83e405930fa075d92ec7f9d8dcc38/
Russian D-20 howitzer fires on enemy position near Kupyansk:
https://rutube.ru/video/cd2e38321194a16fc2c374878b50df87/
Russian military repair units have reduced the time necessary to complete repair work on damaged military equipment:
https://rutube.ru/video/74cc1804749c30b03ddeddc38922d986/
Posted by: Nate | Nov 24 2023 1:55 utc | 75
@ James J and WhirlX –
Oh yeah, good strategic move getting the Black Sea and the Danube river out of the west’s grubby paws. But that certainly doesn’t mean an end to the relatively laid-back military saunter though central and western ukraine over the next several years. By then, reaching a border wouldn’t mean all that much – if there is still any fight left in the west Russia could continue all the way to the Atlantic if the idiots wanna keep playing games.
I don’t think many people have a real understanding of just how DONE the collective west is on the International Scene. Western Europe and America could well resemble a scene out of Monty Python’s Holy Grail, cobbing up hovels in an agrarian backwater.
Fun to watch, anyway.
Posted by: comrade simba | Nov 24 2023 1:55 utc | 76
LightYearsFromHome (54)
You are possibly being a bit hard on the Union quartermaster here. The Lee family estate (Arlington) was requisitioned (seized) by the Federal Government early in the war. The mansion itself was converted into a military hospital. Great numbers of wounded were brought there from the Wilderness and other battles; the remains of the many who did not survive were buried in the most convenient and logical place, i.e. the grounds adjacent to the hospital. It may have been done out of spite for General Lee, but it is more likely that it was done simply because it was the logical thing to do in the circumstances.
Posted by: Bernard Davis | Nov 24 2023 2:24 utc | 77
Re: Posted by: Poslan1 | Nov 24 2023 0:25 utc | 71
Are there any possible signs that Russia is going to accept America’s terms in any treaty? None whatsoever. But anyway you talk about Russia’s foolishness. You coulda easely phrase it like “America is INCREDIBLY FOOLISH to think that Russia would sign any peace agreement with the USA”, that might be more relevant and based on facts, but you want to talk about Russia’s foolishness.
Actually, there are plenty of signs Russia would accept a ceasefire and commence peace negotiations – perhaps at the drop of the right hat.
It is the Ukrainians who are currently refusing to negotiate – NOT the Russians.
The most powerful sign the Russians would negotiate is recent history of the last 10 years – and even since this conflict began!
The Russians signed Minsk 1 (when everyone told them it was a waste of time – WHY DID THEY DO THIS?!?), the Russians signed Minsk 2 (when everyone told them it was a waste of time – WHY DID THEY DO THIS?!?).
Even after telling the world for years after the Minsk treaties that “The West” TM (US/UK especially) were “agreement incapable” – what did the Russians do – they negotiated in earnest to effectively sign a “Minsk 3” in March/April 2022!!
A lot of people here (yes, including me), said this was a complete waste of time – and how did it turn out? It was a complete waste of time!!
So forgive me when I look at Russian actions and continually see the Russian government rushing to sign worthless and pointless treaties with the “agreement incapable” West – it’s a complete waste of time – but they keep doing it!
My advice – just go and win the darn war and you won’t need to sign a worthless treaty.
If you’re wondering, I do suspect the Russians won’t sign any worthless peace treaties with the Biden Administration – but when January 2025 rolls around – perhaps with a new “Trump Administration” – I can definitely see the Russians extending the hand of friendship and signing a new treaty.
If that does happen – they better make darn sure they have achieved all their aims by November 2024 or at least January 2025.
Posted by: Julian | Nov 24 2023 3:09 utc | 78
by comrade simba | Nov 24 2023 1:55 utc | 77
Odesa Raion, why not?
It is interesting, true. But, I think it is difficult to do it from the sea and a South path. It is, of course, possible, but costly. ‘Normandy style’ we will surely not see. A combination of both, maybe.
But it is a long way to Odesa, unless we really ain’t seeing much of it started yet in earnest.
North Eastern path is most probable road to Odesa. As in all previous wars.
I think that RF accumulated enough missiles, shells and other stuff to shift into a ‘real big arrow’ stuff, real soon. And they are producing more, as Shoigu confirmed. We could see the NATO and the West losing biglly and quickly, and a current Ukraine’s downfall sped up.
In any case, a good argument for Odesa would be that the Black Sea is not safe enough. Romanians will wet pants a bit, but they do not want war with RF.
This also creates a reason good enough for Erdo to take the NATO out of Türkiye and rule the Black Sea with RF. That is a much better deal for both. Meanwhile, Russian and Turkish Navies are patrolling together, protecting TurkStream from everyone.
For month nothing goes in or out of Odesa ports, so it is good as it is already, but RF on the Danube delta is a very juicy prize for RF and a nightmare for NATO knowing that it cannot prevent it unless it commits to a full direct conflict. That NATO will lose, with terrible consequences for the Disfunctional West.
Another good reason for Odesa Raion, is that it is needed for a full Crimean protection.
Crimea becomes a real safe naval base and be fully functional, as it was intended.
Also a good place to live.
Posted by: whirlX | Nov 24 2023 4:25 utc | 79
they negotiated in earnest to effectively sign a “Minsk 3” in March/April 2022!!
Posted by: Julian | Nov 24 2023 3:09 utc | 79
Not “Minsk”, where Russia was not a participant, but only a quarantor, but some “Istanbul” like a full participant. That has been tried once before with Georgia in 2008 and for 15 years already it shows that it was a good decision. There still might be some hate towards Russiain Georgia, but it still exist as a country, so it was worth trying.
Now it is already a different kind of an operation. So the solution would be different as well.
Posted by: Poslan1 | Nov 24 2023 5:03 utc | 80
Love him, loathe him, it matters not, he is now the most consequential leader the Western world has today, even in his absence the globalists are terrified of him, and that gives hope to many.
Posted by: Milites | Nov 23 2023 22:36 utc | 63
There’s truth in what you write, particularly on why people support trump, but the question is does he have a viable solution? The answer is obviously, no. He wants war with China not Ukraine. Think about that. He wants to return to the 1980s economically and culturally. Is that possible? No. He scapegoats vulnerable sections of the working class, like immigrants, but lauds billionaires. Totally backwards.
I hate the ruling class too. I also find trump amusing to a certain extent, like an entertainer. But, imagine he wins it all or just takes full power. Then what? You’re back to square one: a crisis.
Trump is part of the disfavored, least influential section of the ruling class, but he’s still part of the ruling class.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Nov 24 2023 5:14 utc | 81
📋🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Two Majors #Report for the Morning of 24 November 2023; pub. 07:00📍
🎯 The RF Armed Forces at night again hit with Geraniums at #Starokonstantinov in #Khmelnitsky region, where a military airfield is located. UAVs were reported in the #Vinnitsa region, our missiles were recorded by the enemy on their way to the #Odessa and #Poltava regions.
▪️ In the #Kherson direction yesterday the RF Armed Forces started active operations near the settlement of #Krynki. Fighting in the forests went on until the evening, with field reports of Ukrainian militants taken prisoner. In general, the situation remains tense, and our fighters continue to grumble about the organisation of combat operations, the provision of communications and the low level of interaction between forward units.
▪️ On the #Zaporozhye front, against the background of bad weather, both sides did not take any active actions, mutual artillery shelling continued.
▪️ On the #Avdeyevka front, heavy fighting continues. Active actions took place near #Stepovoye and #Krasnogorovka on the northern edge of the front. In the southern part of the front, the RF Armed Forces were destroying enemy positions by tank and artillery fire in the area of the industrial zone. The RF Armed Forces did not reduce artillery and air strikes against the enemy, including on the territory of the Coke Plant.
▪️ South of #Artyomovsk (#Bakhmut), our troops knocked the enemy out of a number of positions near #Andreyevka. Fighting continues near #Kleshcheyevka.
▪️ In the #Kupyansk direction it is reported about intensification of fighting near #Sinkovka. The local command estimates that the enemy loses up to 50 militants a day in this village alone.
💥 At night, residents of #Dzhankoy (north of #Crimea) reported the work of air defence forces. In #Kursk region, the village of #Gorodishche, Rylsk district, was shelled twice during the day. In #Belgorod region, the village of #Kozinka, Grayvoron town district, was attacked by a kamikaze drone, a civilian was wounded. In #Gorlovka (#DPR), a civilian was wounded as a result of Nazi strikes.
🗺 The RF Armed Forces began active operations in this sector of the front. The enemy is suffering significant losses in manpower
Posted by: Down South | Nov 24 2023 5:24 utc | 82
Explosive Egress: Proof of Concept in Southern Avdeevka by Nagasaki Nightmare
As I refer to it, a tactic of explosive egress, is exactly as it sounds: dig a tunnel, create a large explosion at an exit in a vulnerable enemy position, tunnel out and attack.
Playing to Russian Strengths
Russian military engineers efficiency in both construction—particularly of river crossings and defensive lines—and deployment of minefields is noted among western authorities. A report by UK based think tank RUSI, distributed in May ahead of the Summer offensive—which was seemingly ignored by Ukrainian commanders—stated this point clearly. Though they also suggest that all major Russia’s improvements in military strategy, operations, and tactics have all been reactive. This now appears to be a premature underestimation.
A CIA report first dstributed in 1949—initially classified as secret—and declassified by the CIA in 1999, indicates the existence of a large underground hangar and tank depot below an airstrip in Kharkov capable of holding 150 jets. The hangar has an airplane elevator and several separate hangars capable of holding a number of tanks as well as concentrations of manpower. This hangar doesn’t exist in isolation. Facilities like this, built under the Soviet Union, are fairly extensive. Though, Russian military intellligence will know all of their locations, it’s unlikely they can realistaclly take advantage of this intelligence without great expenditure.
Air Defense control systems, Command & Control (C2), man power, intelligence, jets, armor, equipment, ammunition, and various other supplies are evidenced by OSINT at different levels and are widely distributed. Usage of existing tunnel systems by Ukrainian forces in Mariopol, Bakhmut, and Avdeevka itself are well known.
Minimal open source intelligence (OSINT) was found regarding tunnel systems in urban areas. But disused urban railways that exist in the city of Kharkov, which are being used for civilian shelter, are likely suspects for military installations and storage facilities. Given an attack on city center in Kharkov during the Summer, this seems likely. Unfortunately, tunnels under densely populated areas, are difficult to exploit due to potential for high civilian casualties. Though, Ukraine clearly remains undeterred in this respect in the city of Donetsk
Current OSINT regarding Ukraine’s current training system, and those outside of the country, are four main priorities: basic training for fresh recruits, instructions on using foreign weaponry, training for commanders and junior officers, and collective training of different unit levels. This seems a matter of practical necessity.
Russian engineering capability in manpower and equipment, both at a regional and national level, cannot be overstated. Since year 2000, Eurasian mining has since doubled. In contrast, European mining has decreased by over a third with North American’s increasing by only 13.8 percent.
The reduction of casualties for offensive operations are perhaps among the greatest reasons to take advantage of this. Near term exploitation of existing mine systems along the Donetsk front is likely. Russia can take advantage of their commercial mining resources and competent manpower, at both the regional and national levels.
It’s difficult to imagine a future frozen line in which such operations will not be conducted. Explosive egress from underground tunnel systems could be a tactical game-changer along such frozen and dangerous lines of contact, which might only be matched by recent innovation in EW and drone equipment. Given it’s lack of manpower and resources to do so, Ukraine’s prospects for mirroring these tactics are poor.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/75290
Posted by: Down South | Nov 24 2023 5:27 utc | 83
Bankovaya is warming up the case of general unlimited mobilization with the help of its “tame warriors”, who could be promised various goodies for this.
According to our data, office functionaries verbally offer to all military personnel who publicly support increased illegal mobilization:
A) retired positions in military structures (foundations, unions, etc.). Of course, with full financial support from the budget. The main condition is ZeErmak’s support.
B) Career growth in headquarters and in the rear
B) financial incentives. Both instant and premium.
D) assistance in resolving housing issues when apartments begin to be issued (there is such a plan).
D) a place in the new party of the president in the new elections.
Not everyone agrees, since the negativity in society is huge. But the thirst for profit and career growth takes its toll.
Posted by: Down South | Nov 24 2023 5:29 utc | 84
Julian | Nov 24 2023 3:09 utc | 79
You’d have to think Putin and his advisors – despite signing Minsk – had a very good idea Minsk would be betrayed by the West.
Signing up to it was brilliant. Russia needed more time to finish development of it’s hypersonics but most importantly it gave Russia the moral high ground, it proved to the world that Russia was earnest and wanted nothing more than peace and protection for it’s citizens.
Minsk has provided a perfect example to the whole world of US and EU and UK perfidy and given Russia the perfect reason to respond using force as it did.
Likewise with the whole Russian “go slow” military campaign – people forget that the major scare campaign waged by Zelesnskyy was and still is that has Russia expansive intent – intent to conquer EU, to march ruthless Russian forces through the ex Soviet republics all the way to Germany.
How brilliant it is that the Russians can prove the lie, Russia has *earned* trust and respect and maintained a minimalist approach while at the same time setting up a defensive posture that has broken NATO and comprehensively crippled Ukraine.
Compare all that with Israel. The polar opposite.
Posted by: Saul Goode | Nov 24 2023 6:06 utc | 85
Soon, Ukraine is going to raise a huge army of women, girls and boys over 14, and pkd man and women. And they shall fight untill the end.
Posted by: zorge | Nov 24 2023 6:29 utc | 87
Russia has *earned* trust and respect…
Posted by: Saul Goode | Nov 24 2023 6:06 utc | 86
I’d say that goodwill is a way, not a goal. The goal is peace and mutually beneficial trade. If a neighboring state hates Russia but keeps peace and trades fairely, I’d say Russia is good with it
Posted by: Poslan1 | Nov 24 2023 6:46 utc | 88
Posted by: averros | Nov 23 2023 23:48 utc | 66
Thanks for this. Excellent info & recommendations. Post of the month at least!
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Nov 24 2023 7:09 utc | 89
Most recent Military Summary was already linked here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81dL8XNkjzQ
“The Fall ; Eastern Avdiivka Has Fallen. Krinky Is A Ukrainian Nightmare. Military Summary 2023.11.23”
Posted by: Naive | Nov 23 2023 23:56 utc | 67
But I call your attention to the 27:15 mark, where Dima discusses Russian plans to increase their forces in 404 to 1.5 Million (increase of 421k) over the next year.
Rumble link: https://rumble.com/v3xgnep-the-fall-eastern-avdiivka-has-fallen.-krinky-is-a-ukrainian-nightmare.-mili.html
Posted by: retroflecks | Nov 24 2023 7:35 utc | 90
Signing up to it was brilliant. Russia needed more time to finish development of it’s hypersonics but most importantly it gave Russia the moral high ground, it proved to the world that Russia was earnest and wanted nothing more than peace and protection for it’s citizens.
Posted by: Saul Goode | Nov 24 2023 6:06 utc | 86
Nonsense.
1) Russia didn’t need hypersonics to take over Ukraine back then, and the West would not have attacked them either — the existing ICBMs and SLBMs were more than enough of a deterrent.
2) Having the moral high ground is making the hundreds of thousands of cripples and families of dead soldiers (on both sides) feel soooo soooo good about their situation now. I am 100% sure about that…
3) There is no real difference in terms of consequences for Russia between what actually happened in 2014-15 and a hypothetical scenario in which the Russian army goes to Kiev, reverses the coup, installs a friendly regime, does not leave Ukraine just to make sure nobody starts that shit again, Banderites are purged (including out of the country), and Ukraine remains nominally independent but like Belarus, i.e. it joins the Union state, and eventually the Union state becomes more than legal fiction but an actual integrated entity (once Lukashenko is gone, Moscow will have no choice but to make that move).
This could have been done with minimal casualties at the time.
There would still have been sanctions, and whatever international condemnation there was over Crimea would not have gone too much beyond that; in fact Crimea would not have had to be fully annexed under such a scenario.
Maybe Finland and Sweden don’t join NATO in such a case either.
There is one and only one difference in outcomes that drove the decision making — such decisive action would have severed a lot of bridges with the West, and the oligarchy class was strongly against that. So the excuse that “we weren’t ready yet” has been rolled out all these years and now we are headed towards seven-figure KIAs and utter destruction (because they weren’t ready eight full years later either, but NATO and the AFU were).
Great job by the 5D chess masters…
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Nov 24 2023 7:42 utc | 91
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Nov 24 2023 7:42 utc | 92
and that’s why the Russian MOD is paying you the big bucks. LOL.
Posted by: retroflecks | Nov 24 2023 7:46 utc | 92
Posted by: retroflecks | Nov 24 2023 7:46 utc | 93
Rubles, man, rubles. Tens of rubles!!
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Nov 24 2023 7:49 utc | 93
Eightman 13:”And what IS THAT ENDGAME ?” – Who thinks God wants him to be the ruler of the world ? And to achieve that, there are only three Problems left: Russia, China and India. And Russia is the most serious, because they have so many fucking nukes…
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Nov 24 2023 8:19 utc | 94
Dima says Krynky is blocked from all directions and AFU has no possibilities to expand. They were kicked out of the forest south back into the ruins.
He also speculates that AFU will not create another Bakhmut in Avdeevka and would opt to retreat to a next defense line once it’s complete. Apparently they have abandoned some of the forest south-east/ESE of Avdeevka. This could be btw what they were talking about in Ramstein with Zaluzhny. Zelensky wasn’t invited there.
RUAF has some sort of new helicopter drones, significantly larger than FPV drones. Maybe capable of carrying missiles or rockets like a full sized helicopter.
Also new thermal covers are being produced for motorized vehicles.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 24 2023 8:41 utc | 95
The situation in the Avdeevka direction on 11/24/2023 – analysis from @Multi_XAM and @z_arhiv
It is worth starting with the fact that the “victorious” tone of the Ukrainian public until recently was replaced by a statement of the fact of the critical situation of the AFU near Avdeevka. Russian troops are pressing on the main areas of offensive operations. According to our format, we will not describe the actions of our troops, but on the contrary, we will analyze the position and maneuvers of the enemy.
With the support of aviation and artillery, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are advancing on the northeastern flank (in the direction of Keramik, Novokalinovo, Berdych, Petrovskoye) and in the south (in the area of Severnoye and Tonenkoye), forcing the AFU to leave positions. Significant successes are reported in the industrial zone of the Avdeevka coke plant, as well as in the area of dachas and in the direction of the Avdeevka quarry. Ukrainian resources record the abandonment of the AFU positions in the area of treatment facilities, where 12th separate infantry battalion and 21st separate brigade of Special Forces were previously stationed.
To the northwest of Krasnogorovka, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation occupied a forest belt north of the railway branch.
To the north and west of the Tochmash dacha village in the direction of Novokalinovo and the forest belt north of Stepovoye, the enemy holds positions with 109th, 129th separate brigades, as well as 107th, 236th and 237th separate battalions of the TrD, 1st presidential brigade, 22nd separate battalion of the Special Forces, 52nd separate rifle battalion, 1st tank and 31st mechanized brigades, as well as 3rd separate Special Forces regiment. The command of the AFU, understanding the operational plan of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, is trying to prevent the passage of our troops to the Ocheretino station, after which the supply of the Avdeevka garrison through Orlovka will be cut off.
In an attempt to prevent the Avdeevka group from falling into the operational environment, the command of the Donetsk OTG is transferring additional forces to the area of the AFU strongholds 25 km north-west in the area of Novaya Poltavka, through which two main supply arteries of the Avdееvka garrison pass at the intersection of roads from Konstantinovka and Pokrovsk.
On the southern flank in the area of the industrial zone, where the defense is still held by the 1st mechanized battalion of the 110th mechanized brigade, our forces are also advancing. Currently, the enemy has regrouped, withdrawing part of the units 1.5 km northwest to the area of the forest plantation. The information about the complete withdrawal of the 110th brigade from the Avdeevka direction does not correspond to reality. The 2nd battalion of the brigade holds positions in the area of the former recreation center “Tsarskaya Okhota”, the 3rd – in the area of dumps southwest of Promka. The withdrawal, most likely, meant the evacuation of damaged equipment, which was taken out by the engineering units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the enemy began to have problems with the supply of ammunition, which affects the decrease in the intensity of hostilities, forcing the AFU to retreat deeper and thus exposing suburban areas. Some ukrainian media are starting to prematurely report that Avdeevka is in an operational environment. The only option for the AFU to delay our advance is to continue to counterattack on the flanks, however, this is also a matter of time (until the supply is finally disrupted).
Most likely, in an effort to save soldiers, the AFU command will begin a gradual withdrawal of units as soon as new fortified areas, some minimal fortification and engineering in the strip from Konstantinovka to Kurakhovo (possibly even to Ugledar) are equipped at a depth of 15-25 km from Avdeevka, which will take time.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/75313
Posted by: Down South | Nov 24 2023 9:46 utc | 96
There is a truck drivers (about to be joined by the farmers) strike on the Polish/Ukrainian border, due to last until the end of February 2024, that is starting to impact deliveries, of all kinds, into Ukraine. There are huge queues of stationary trucks, now in the snow. The fuel aspect is starting to cause shortages and price rises whilst the military impact is there but unknown.
As we all now logistics can win or lose wars.
Did the Ramstein group foresee this? If they did not much seems to have happened to solve it.
Posted by: JohninMK | Nov 24 2023 11:28 utc | 97
No great demographic support required for near-pervasive drone terrorism.
Carrying a portable drone jammer in the vehicle might help for now but will do nothing against any drone that can pilot itself onto a selected target for the last 100m, so, in itself, that sort of defensive measure does not have a bright future.
https://t.me/NovichokRossiya/41908
Video⚡️The road to Bakhmut becomes a dangerous quest⚡️
In the Artyomovsk direction, the degree of tension was set a long time ago, and with the liberation of Artyomovsk itself the situation has not changed much – the fighting around the settlement has not stopped to this day.
But there is still one difference – this is a huge number of enemy drones of all shapes and sizes, which turn traveling along previously safe roads into a risky undertaking.
Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 24 2023 12:29 utc | 98
I wonder how long it will take to conquer Avdiivka. Heck, I wonder how long to take Stepove. We keep getting updates on moving towards Stepove. But that’s not really even news. That’s been the status. I wonder if they have to wait until spring to take Avdiivka–there are comments that the Russian push at Avdiivka has become less intense.
And given the slow pace of advance (plus the concentration of effort in the Donetsk, NOT at Kherson), I wonder when the “gonna take Odessa” crowd, thinks this will actually happen. Yes, it’s possible there will be a crumbling of Ukrainian will/ability. But there’s also a (probably greater) possibility that things will get easier for the Ukrainians if they concentrate on defense. Both sides have seen that being too optimistic about the other side running away can be very costly, when they fight instead of running.
It requires less brains and courage to defend than to advance. And the modern battlefield with minefields and the like is very hard to advance in, for anyone, especially if lacking US type air dominance.
Posted by: Anonymous | Nov 24 2023 13:46 utc | 99
Anyone know what´s happened to US Navy Lt. Cmdr. Edward C Lin?
He was arrested for spying for the Chinese, viz. selling (allegedly for sex) secrets about long-range anti-ship missiles and a high-speed rail gun firing a LASER-type weapon, tested in the Persian Gulf.
It seems the secrets may include the American answer to Russia´s hypersonic missiles.
Posted by: John Marks | Nov 24 2023 15:22 utc | 100