My thoughts –
I think people here have greatly underestimated the size of the Ukrainian army and potential recruits and manpower.
Take a much smaller country – Bosnia and Herzegovina – as an example.
BiH had a population of around 4 million when the war started. It was divided into 3 main factions (& actually there were more as there was infighting between the Muslims – but set that aside). The largest was the Bosnian Muslims at 43% of the population which would be 1.72 million people. They – the Bosnian Muslim side (ARBiH) had an infantry of 200,000 officially, and with some claims of it having 240,000 and even 280,000.
So let’s take the 200,000 figure for a population of 1,720,000. 1.72 is 20 times smaller than Ukraine’s population if we take Ukraine being 34.4 million, which is a fair figure. So if 1.72 million could get an army of 200,000+, then 34.4 million could get an army of 4,000,000.
But being (much) more conservative and taking half that we have 2,000,000.
Now Russian claims averaged around 300 Ukrainians dying per day for over 15 months – so 300 times 465 days is 139,500.
Then starting in early June 2023, there was an increase in Ukrainian death rates over twice that, according to Russian claims. So lets say 700 per day for over 5 months now, so around 160 days. 700 times 160 days is 112,000.
Adding 139,500 and 112,000 we get 251,500. A lot, but 251,500 is only 12.575% of 2 million. So that means they have over 87% of their army/potential army left so they can certainly fight on for a few more years at this pace.
And to that you have the foreign mercenaries. I believe the Polish are the biggest faction of foreign mercs.
Posted by: MiniMo | Nov 10 2023 4:49 utc | 55
The KIA and WIA rendered useless are much higher, but yes, close to 3 million, fed 400.000 at a time
That’s why you heard me say december 25th or 2025

Posted by: newbie | Nov 10 2023 21:38 utc | 203

Posted by: gT | Nov 10 2023 19:27 utc | 97
It’s a tempting and reassuring assessment but alas misleading. The Western countries spent considerably more of their GDP, for considerably longer, than Russia was capable of and have reaped both the benefits and problems that position traditionally bestows. Western weapons are also based on a certain degree of assumptions about the battlefield, with the relative superiority of ground forces, allied with the superiority of AirPower and ISR factored into design functions through to force structures.
The SMO is a replicant of the AIW’s, where Western equipment was demonstrably superior in most cases, but the context of its use conveniently omitted. Similarly, the SMO highlights as many Russian weaknesses as strengths, which are exaggerated due to the unique nature of the fighting and the forces committed. Russia started off with a territorial defence force, whose traditional bugbears of fragile logistics, outdated communications and inconsistent competencies, that had been largely concealed in previous deployments, were increasingly exposed in the SMO. However the Ukrainian forces could not exploit these as they also were deploying forces of limited operational capability and varying levels of combat effectiveness, especially at the crucial higher levels.
The AIW’s problem with proxy forces is also reflected in the SMO, with the West having to watch as the Ukrainians use their weapons, using either sub-standard, bastardised or incomplete doctrinal approaches, especially regarding reconnaissance and brigade operations. A failure ironically of the West’s assumptions about any conflict, not the Ukrainians, just as Russian advisors thought Syrian numbers would counteract the poor performance of their armoured units and the AD would seriously mitigate against the force multiplier of the IAF.
Finally, the West’s approach to combat cannot be replicated in the SMO, because the weapons it designs are for militaries with a specific set of proficiencies that extend across all branches of all services. Which is their Achilles heel, as the Afghans, Iraqis and Saudi’s have found out, they only work effectively if everything else does as well. Again a lesson the Russians learned as they watched the Syrian Armed forces effectively dismantled in Lebanon as the impressive whole was only as strong as the weakest parts.
The biggest advantage the Russians have in the SMO is their direct involvement, which is why Western intelligence sources are quietly saying that the Russians learn from mistakes very quickly. The West in comparison, with its limited military involvement, have to cobble together, from a set of scattered, disparate data-point, a guesstimated executive summary. In a way, very similar to the problem the German naval designers had, in-between the wars. The Allies could use firing tests, against German WW1 battleships to refine armour layouts, the Germans were denied this and so built ships with armour schemes little changed from the Great War, and suffered accordingly.

Posted by: Milites | Nov 10 2023 21:39 utc | 205

Let’s come down to earth. Let’s not talk only about wishes and desires. We have dozens of experts who are already burying the Ukrainian Armed Forces and driving an aspen stake into the coffin of Ukronazism, changing in batches. Like cluster munitions, they are inserted into these TV channels, and they hammer from morning to night, actually misinforming the viewer. This is not what we need to talk about. It is necessary to say that it is time to become a military camp and prepare for a long confrontation.
Posted by: MiniMO | Nov 10 2023 5:15 utc | 57
That’s why my projection is contingent on 3 things
1.The test tube gave acceptable ratios (close to 5) even on offense
2. There is a budget for 70.000 KIA on the RF side
3. RF has, hiding in plain sight, a 600.000 strong force that will rotate into the SMO theater
Anything not within parameters and it’s a long way to go…

Posted by: newbie | Nov 10 2023 21:42 utc | 207

Posted by: Milites | Nov 10 2023 17:29 utc | 89
The strategy within Ukraine is a success in the sense that US strategists forced RF to either intervene, with the costs we now see before us, or step back and watch Banderite goons eat LPR / DPR alive and then take up position all along the Russia-Ukraine border for phase 2. I won’t mention the specific and ongoing losses in men and state assets because you know them well enough. All and vast credit to Russia for not blinking once as the horror of Ukraine has unfolded but it’s horrible all the same. Heads of intelligence departments have been fired with good reason, in the old days they might have been bundled into a central heating firebox for less.
The rest of it is not a clear success, it hasn’t dislodged Putin, quite the opposite, unity improved, the sanctions have failed to produce a quick win and don’t appear to have much better long-term prospects, but notice that it was those who most needed a quick sanctions-led capitulation who placed the greatest stock in them. You can tell who’s getting punked on sanctions by who in the US sector abides by them and who has only ever pretended to.
Resource grabbers want Russia to break so they can get in and start looting again, anyone who stands to profit from a protracted conflict is probably neutral or even supportive of Putin’s leadership, no one better to weather this storm.
The west is suffocating on its own shit but, depending on the victims, it can still do terrorism from behind its conventional and / or nuclear shield. Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya are success stories, even Syria is a success story, just not a complete success.

Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 10 2023 22:16 utc | 209

Like another poster said, this is going to go on for YEARS. Ukraine just wrecked two more Russian ships that were carrying troops and arms. What a clusterfxxk.

Posted by: bored | Nov 10 2023 22:25 utc | 211

At least the love of russia shows her face 🙂

Posted by: Macpott | Nov 10 2023 22:27 utc | 213

Posted by: S | Nov 9 2023 20:04 utc | 26

The West will not stop the war in the Ukraine and support for Kiev. The word “West” here should be understood primarily as the U.S. Europe may be tired, and its economy depressed. But who cares about the opinion of a vassal?

Here can stop to read the rest What nonsense.
Of course, Europe or the West or other governments are not the vassal of the USA!! What nonsense.
Correct is that most governments, including the USA and Europe and the WEST, only follow the dictates of the largest companies!
Correct to is these biggest companies happen to be located in the USA and have a spokesman/mouthpiece and that’s the USA (where the owners of these Maga companies live is not interesting in this context).
If a street sweeper does not know this, it is uninteresting, if a parliamentarian does not know this, he should change the profession. Maybe the Muscovites will help him to find a profession that corresponds to his intellect

Posted by: theo | Nov 10 2023 23:09 utc | 215

reply to 26
Western support is in big trouble because of the extreme nature of Ukr. resistance to the point of national suicide. By sacrificing nearly everything, they heavily depend upon billions of dollars and euros flowing continually to fend off collapse. Not just weapons but billions needed every month to prop up the Ukr. economy. It is fascinating to see just how far the US/EU will go in sacrificing their own people’s well being for endless war.

Posted by: Eighthman | Nov 11 2023 1:14 utc | 217

Some videos for today.
Four more Ukrainian soldiers surrender to Russian forces near Rabotino, on the Zaporozhye front:
https://rutube.ru/video/c46ac02c1f1f26aa8f450bea2d6610b1/
Russian airborne troops’ infantry fighting vehicles and ATGMs destroy enemy observation point near the DPR’s Artemovsk:
https://rutube.ru/video/0fb9355edefe84de4be7ce653925c7ef/
Russian D-30 howitzer opens fire near Kupyansk:
https://rutube.ru/video/ace9bad9a6bdc6c8418d56c94af64a52/
Russian T-80 tank in action near Ugledar, on the southern DPR front:
https://rutube.ru/video/a63c1b7206e41e8fb204384e90ae0d33/

Posted by: Nate | Nov 11 2023 2:05 utc | 219

The Outlaw US Empire can print billons of dollars but it doesn’t produce anything for those dollars to purchase, and the same is true within the EU–the Merchants of Death are unable to deliver because they’d rather hoard profits and see their stock price rise than produce. That’s Neoliberalism 101. What was on hand is now being diverted to the Zionsists to promote their Genocidal efforts. Seems Hamas further proved NATO to be a paper tiger of very limited ability. It has no problem attacking defenseless underwater pipelines and unarmed civilians, but it fails when confronted by well-armed disciplined opposition.
The tables have turned now that the Plundering nations decided to plunder themselves. The EU and its NATO members can’t support Ukraine or Occupied Palestine when they’re so busy paying tribute to their master the Outlaw US Empire. And that tribute doesn’t provide anything tangible; it just gets sucked up into the Empire’s Neoliberal financial vortex and disappears. And the situation will only worsen as time moves onward.

Posted by: karlof1 | Nov 11 2023 2:18 utc | 221

Moody’s has posted their concern over America’s debt, and the Biden administration spokesgoons rushed forward to sassure the markets that their administration was going to cut spending.
Like when Dr. Evil tells everyone to leave the room, but then starts saying “Not you, not you, not you” until he comes to Mini-me, so too will the Biden administration not cut funding for Israel, or the Navy, or any program which if cut would cost them votes. “Survey says …” Most voters won’t scream if Zelenskyy is hung out to dry.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/white-house/biden-officials-gop-dysfunction-moodys-negative-credit

Posted by: Babel-17 | Nov 11 2023 2:42 utc | 223

I have tried to estimate how long time the war in Ukraine can continue.
The population of Ukraine before the war was around 40 million. At the 2014 elections, there seemed to be a majority of russian speaking people. The separation of the eastern parts of the country followed. Then russian oriented people started to leave Ukraine for Russia and other destination. After the start of the war, millions of people left Ukraine.
If we estimate that Ukraine to day has a total pool of people of 20 millions it may draft for an army, the numbers may be as follows: 50% are females, rest 10 million possible victims.
If we estimate equal distribution over the lifetimes, people aged 0 to 18 are not possible soldiers, neither are people over 60 years.
So possible for drafting are 42 years of people and not availabe are the 0 to 18 and the 60 to 80’s, or 38 years of people. Around 50% of the 10 million people are theoretical possible to draft, which is 5 million. – All supposed in good enough health. An earlier contributor to this blog named 4.5 million men.
With an estimated loss of 500.000 (dead+non possible returns), around 10% of the possible, and a new army drafted, another 10%, thr prospect for Ukraine seems very bleak.
I have earlier seen a distribution of ages of men in Ukraine in this blog. The distribution showed an very uneven distribution of ages.
I wonder, if somebody with more knowledge to average possible draftings, age and sex distribution etc could calculate how long this war is possible?

Posted by: HBx | Nov 11 2023 3:21 utc | 225

HBx | Nov 11 2023 3:21 utc | 112
Ukraine military honcho in his interview with the economist has said that they have run out of men.
Large numbers of Ethnic Russians are now Russians. Large numbers of Ukrainians have migrated to Europe. What is left? 20 million or so? Possibly as high as one million dead or maimed.
Then there is the willingness to die in the remaining Ukraine population needs to be taken into account.
How many Ukrainians that see the seas of flags that mark the war dead wish to be one of those graves flying a flag?
Nato has run out of weapons suitable for attacking the defences Russia has set up or for fighting the type of war Russia has drawn nato into.
Ukraine now is little more than a mopping up operation for Russia. The US band has moved to a new venue, leaving its trash behind.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 11 2023 3:34 utc | 227

@HBx | Nov 11 2023 3:21 utc | 112
0-19 was ~24% of the population in 2001. Another factor is the fertility rate which was 1.05 in 2001, 1.5 in 2013, and below 1.2 currently – so all other factors aside population has been declining steadily by around 300k/year just from the low birth rate. I laid this all out in several posts on the previous page. Someone could check the links I posted and with a little time do a more careful estimate than I did, but, as I mentioned already, the fact that they are considering drafting women tells you that they are running out of men. No one knows the number of foreign fighters present, but I doubt that they will remain an important factor at this late stage. Do you expect a flood of volunteers to show up who wish to die for a lost cause?
Personally I expect a retreat from the current front lines to a new defense line further west to begin when Avdeevka falls in the next month or so and this will signal a general lack of reserves. Ukraine will continue to get drones and they have plenty of land mines – these are inexpensive and effective, and if the new defense line is well planned and they retain sufficient artillery then the remains of the UAF could likely hold out for some time still – if it’s just a question of simple military capability. Political and economic considerations will also be important factors however.

Posted by: the pessimist | Nov 11 2023 4:48 utc | 229

Egor Gorbatenko is a native of Lugansk who joined “Azov” (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation) to kill his own fellow countrymen.
He was captured in Mariupol, and then returned to Kyiv as part of the exchange of “Azovites” for Medvedchuk, after which he again went to the front.
It was finally disposed of by the Russian Army in the Kremennaya area.

Posted by: MiniMO | Nov 11 2023 4:53 utc | 231

FPV drones FAQ – analog vs digital VTX
A question was asked in Slavyangrad chat about why most or all FPV drone strike videos we have seen are in low-resolution analog form, instead of digital HD. I answered the question in the chat but will copy it here, for historical & reference purposes:
TLDR answer:
Analog is used because it has better range & penetration, lower radio signature, more channels and it’s much, much cheaper.
Full answer:
Most FPV hobbyists use digital VTX if they can afford it, because it provides a much more immersive high-resolution view. A digital FPV system has a digital HD or even 4K camera, and a VTX which transmits at SHF (Super High Frequency) such as 5.8GHz. The high frequency enables high data bandwidth, which is required to transmit the HD signal to the pilot’s goggles. Digital VTX cameras and VTX modules are expensive, costing several hundred US dollars per aircraft.
Downsides of SHF are decreased range, and greater sensitivity to interference from obstacles or from competing radio signals. These can be overcome to a degree by greatly increasing the transmission power of the VTX module. Digital FPV systems are usually factory limited to 25-100mw or so (for regulatory compliance) but generally can be software-hacked to transmit at 1200mw or more. Regardless of power levels, SHF signals require LOS (line of sight) in order to transmit digital VTX streams. For a reliable digital VTX stream at more than 5km, the pilot must operate at the highest power or risk losing signal.
In a military application, a transmission power of 1 watt or more results in a highly visible and easily detectable electromagnetic signature. The VTX can be jammed (blinding the pilot), by sending a much higher power rubbish signal on the exact same frequency. VTX signals are also generally unencrypted, so once detected, the enemy may be able to view the VTX feed on their own equipment.
Analog VTX systems generally operate at UHF frequency around 800MHz. Radio signals at this frequency have much longer range and penetration. UHF signals can diffract around obstacles, meaning if the quad dips below the horizon, goes behind buildings or a treeline, the signal can still be maintained (up to a degree). Analog VTX operating at only 25mw can operate up to 5km, and up to 20km or more is possible at around 400mw. The total cost for an analog camera and VTX is less than $50 per aircraft – many times less than digital VTX.
One more limitation of digital VTX is it operates on one band only with not more than 8 channels. This limits the number of birds which can fly simultaneously. By comparison, analog VTX operates in 5 bands with 8 channels each, for a total of 40 channels.
Summary:
While digital FPV systems provide clarity to the pilot, analog VTX provides a more reliable feed over much longer range, operates at much lower power, provides more channels and is much less expensive.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/73130

Posted by: Down South | Nov 11 2023 5:20 utc | 233

@Milites | Nov 10 2023 21:39 utc | 102
I don’t have the faintest clue what you are trying to say. Don’t know if your AIW is Asymmetric Industrial Warfare, or Asymmetric warfare or Asymmetric Information Warfare (IT). Sounds very Zumwalt-ish (pie in the sky) to me. Russian warfare was dependent on masses of armour all moving forward after massive artillery barrages. The small scale tactical situation was irrelevant, all that mattered was advance to contact in mass and annihilate. So what if the radio doesn’t work or some tanks get knocked out, somewhere along the front some units will break through so those units get reinforced and then the flying tanks cause utter havoc in the enemies rear. When fighting Russia the adversary is guaranteed at least 50% casualties minimum, then such casualties have to be endured across endless miles of steppe and taiga, GloboHomo can’t handle that.
Western warfare is dependent on air superiority, well that doesn’t work against Russian air defence and the Russian aircraft are better as well. So the West literally doesn’t know what to do when fighting Russia.
Western GDP is a joke, its mostly service industry and finance. Russian GDP on the other hand is iron and oil, tangible stuff. People in the West sit in the coffee shops discussing anal bleaching or anal suntanning, most Russians drink tea and vodka and play chess, except for the fools pretending to be Western in Moscow and St. Petersburg that is. Western GDP cannot be converted into weaponry easily, Western energy is green and unsuited to heavy industry. Russia doesn’t have those problems. In other words, Western GDP has no bearing on this conflict whatsoever.
The mere fact that Russian GDP increased by 5% year on year in the 2’nd quarter of 2023 means that the SMO is good for Russia. If Russia stops the SMO then the West will just continue with its divide and rule policy, like stoking antisemitism in the Russian Muslim republics, and otherwise getting the Russian Muslim republics to rebel. So its SMO forever!!!

Posted by: gT | Nov 11 2023 5:45 utc | 235

Fallout From Catastrophic Ukraine Depleted Uranium Explosion Reached England (Sputnikglobe) by Dr. Christopher Busby.
Didn’t manage to find the preprint, it might be too early for the search providers to have indexed it.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Nov 11 2023 7:13 utc | 237

Posted by: Down South | Nov 11 2023 5:20 utc | 117
Interesting summary, thank you.
I’ll add what I’ve come to understand from my own research into this subject, which is this: as stated, analog is cheap and effective in the one-drone, one-operator, line-of-sight scenario that currently dominates FPV usage but digital has far more potential to exploit in the future, even at a relatively low price point.
OpenHD and OpenIPC are two projects that give a flavour of building digital comms for drones by repurposing consumer grade WiFi modules and webcam sensors. Those projects don’t emphasise it but digital comms makes encryption and relay / network operation possible.
This is the way things are going, so the line-of-sight advantage of analog FPV is a good fit for current practice but limited in the long run.
A copter drone with wings for range extension, encrypted digital relay comms via a cheap wifi module, autopilot integration for altitude cruise and comms aware loitering to keep the relay chain in range, this could be flown in units of 5…10 by a single operator over ranges that far exceed current operational parameters. There is nothing there not demonstrated in disparate hobbyist projects other than the complete system integration and deployment.
Analog comms don’t give you a low cost path to encryption (operational security) and relay networking (range extension and operator safety).

Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 11 2023 9:03 utc | 239

Military summary:
-RUAF has managed to collect some forces to the south in the forest of Krynky and block AFU movement
-RUAF after a small hiatus made a heavy bombardment of Krynky, where AFU troops are relatively immobile and might have a battalion
-RUAF has some problems with EW equipment and air defense in the peninsula in this area
-RUAF managed to move to Stepove, videos already 24 – 36 hours ago confirm it
-Also problem (or lack of) EW equipment in this area
-AFU is scrambling and sending everything they have to Stepove to attack including Bradley’s
-RUAF made significant gains SW and NW of Artemovsk (toward Ivanovske) and north of Kleschevka they managed to return control of a forest
-Good EW coverage over Artemovsk

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 11 2023 9:18 utc | 241

@ gT, §118:
Yes, the GloboHomo empire has failed spectacularly on the economic front with its counter-productive “sanctions”. All due to that blowhard, Bill Browder, and his “Magnitsky Acts”.
Militarily, the Russian technology has improved by leaps and bounds whereas the West´s remain mired in contracts with elephantine corporations with the manœuvrability of an oil tanker – and much of their production capacity overseas! Even worse, there´s a dearth of engineers in the West: they have cultural studies folk instead.
Finally, the Americans may try the Muslim card, but the Chechens have turned from being jihadists to Chechen nationalists happy in their own republic fighting for the Russian Federation that accords them sufficient identity. If the Americans continue to push in Dagestan (a Muslim-defined entity), it will be dissolved and reconstituted as the Avar, Dargin and Lezgian republics, secular, pro-nationalist and happy to fight for Russia, just like Chechenya.

Posted by: John Marks | Nov 11 2023 11:51 utc | 243

@The Pessimist
I posted some time after written the part and had not seen your contributions. – I would properly not have written the post if I had seen yours.
Your information about a birth rate of 1.00 – 1.20 in the start of the century, is very interesting. It means in practice that a majority of families in 2023 will be 1-child families. You take the single child and send it to war – you might get away with it for a short time, but when the mothers realise that ‘they’ will send your only child to dead or invalidity, then the game is up. – It is totally unforgivenly.

Posted by: HBx | Nov 11 2023 12:32 utc | 245

With the discussion around drones in warfare, and as someone with no military background (other than an involuntary participation in rotc my first two years in a Christian high school) I have what many of you will consider a very basic question. With all the high tech weaponry that has been developed and deployed on the battlefield, why hasn’t a light, possibly shoulder mounted anti-drone launcher been made in numbers, a system that could detect and close on a small, slow, low-flying object and take it out of the sky? Probably a system with a base detection unit that could connect to one or more portable firing devices. I know that Russia has something in the works but it seems that such a system should have been developed some time ago. I’ve watched enough videos of a drone dropping grenades into a trench full of soldiers.
Also, it looks like in the Kherson region the AFU has parity or maybe an advantage in FPV drones. Could this be due to Russia shifting many of its drone operators to Adveeka front?

Posted by: Mike R | Nov 11 2023 13:48 utc | 247

Beyond the military front, it is looking very bad for Ukraine on the financial front.
There appears to be no chance of any additional aid passing the US Congress until December at the earliest. The House and Senate must pass a CR to keep the US government running after Nov. 17, and there are few days left. The Senate cannot agree on what to do about aid for Israel, and the issue of Ukraine aid seems tied to border security which is a poison pill for Dems.
Additionally, the urgency of sending money to Israel wanes with every dead kid in Gaza or civilian getting sawed in two by US hellfire missiles given to Bibi for shitz-n-giggles.
The most likely scenario is a clean CR funding the government at prior levels with no additional spending passes next week, and Congress adjourns until December. This leaves Ukraine high and dry, and possibly running out of money to pay leechfux in the regime.
There is another problem, too. The US treasury auctions are starting to fail. Fitch just downgraded their credit outlook to negative. Yellen has responded by piling into T-bills for short term funding needs but there are limits to this mathematically; a debt spiral and exponential runaway debt scenario cannot be ruled out.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Nov 11 2023 17:46 utc | 249

Military Summary has been emphasizing an aspect of drone warfare recently that hasn’t received as much attention as the advances in drone technology – EW denial of airspace. Not only is it important to have competent teams of drone operators, but it is equally important to deny your opponent’s drones access to the airspace over your own frontline positions and at depth to prevent attacks on covering artillery and logistical trains. Russia has such equipment, but apparently not in sufficient quantities to cover all important areas along the front. Same goes for Ukraine of course. This is apparently on of the issues in Kherson and along the Dnipr where the UAF has been able to attack artillery positions and logistic centers in the rear. Some of the problem is also western ISR guided HIMARS strikes which continue to be difficult to suppress.
Aleks at BMA has a piece up on two new books on air defence and rockets and missiles being used in Ukraine. Need one on drone warefare as well.

Posted by: the pessimist | Nov 11 2023 18:16 utc | 251

RUAF identified a large cache of AFU trucks near Kherson (using X-rays).
https://twitter.com/simpatico771/status/1723416293154443377

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 11 2023 19:07 utc | 253

Here’s some info on the localised problems RF is having near Kherson. Seems like a big factor was the commander being well below par but, at that level, it’s hard to imagine there was anyone who didn’t know the guy was no good before this debacle.
https://t.me/rybar/54082

🇷🇺🇺🇦 About the problems of the Dnepr group of troops in the Kherson direction
Looking at the events taking place near Krynki in the Kherson region, several obvious problems are visible, due to which it is not possible to completely clear the AFU bridgehead in the populated area.
▪️Virtual absence of effective electronic warfare
UAVs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine fly freely over the Dnieper, sometimes even working deep into the defense of the Russian Armed Forces. This makes it possible not only to direct artillery and mortars, but also to track the movements of Russian troops at the LBS.
In turn, Russian UAV operators cannot boast of this: the enemy’s electronic warfare crews are working intensively. Various jamming stations were pulled towards the Dnieper, which seriously complicated the work of the drones.
▪️Lack of air defense equipment at the site
Due to the long front line, there are gaps in airspace protection that the enemy takes advantage of. In recent days, Ukrainian aviation has been trying to fly even across the Dnieper to support ground forces.
▪️Lack of counter-battery weapons and attack drones
The forward groups of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have a significant superiority in both attack drones and fire support. Obviously, due to certain successes in the direction, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine provided the “elite” brigades of Marines with everything to achieve the goal.
And in contrast to this, the Russian units holding the defense, for some reason, do not have such support. In the same 10th Special Forces Brigade, despite numerous requests, they prefer to use the tactics of a frontal assault on positions, which is not particularly effective given the terrain and intense enemy fire.
This is despite the fact that the 10th brigade has completely different tasks, and personnel are used for other purposes in assault operations, sapping the potential of the prepared formation.
❗️Well, probably the biggest problem that seriously affects the defense of the Russian Armed Forces is a certain rigidity in the thinking of some of the people in charge. Maybe this is Makarevich’s legacy, which with the arrival of a new commander will follow the previous military leader, or maybe the situation is even worse than it looked at first glance.
Reluctance to take into account the nature of the enemy’s actions, to analyze possible scenarios and consequences leads to rather clumsy methods of resolving issues, such as sending assault groups without fire and reconnaissance support. The task has been set – complete it.
This, of course, can influence the development of events, but at what cost. After all, along with the killed members of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, our servicemen also die, which in the future could play a cruel joke on the direction. After all, the intensity of fire in the rear areas is not decreasing, but only growing. And a new batch of cruise missiles was delivered to Starokonstantinov.
Consequently, the enemy is still hatching plans to attack in the south while the weather still permits. The same attack on the Black Sea in Crimea looks like eliminating the threat to a possible landing of the DRG of the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate on Tarkhankut. And, taking into account the movements in Ochakov and to the west, one gets the impression that this option is quite possible.
#WSRF #Russia #Ukraine

Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 11 2023 19:32 utc | 255

thanks bevin.
As I’ve said in different ways for a while now. From the “western” perspective, in the end, all ceasefire/peace negotiations with Russia will be about one thing: preserving the investments of giant US and European multinational corporations and banks in Ukraine

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Nov 11 2023 19:39 utc | 257

A critical assessment of the latest attack on Sevastopol and resulting losses. There’s no point glossing over this sort of thing, these high value assets are almost being given away to novel attacks.
https://t.me/rybar/54076

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Attack of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Black Sea and Feodosia
🔻Early in the morning, after yesterday’s attempt to attack Sevastopol, Ukrainian formations again carried out a combined attack on the Crimean peninsula. At first, the Ukrainian Armed Forces intended to hit an oil depot in Feodosia with two drones, but the UAVs were shot down.
▪️This was followed by a strike on the base of the Black Sea Fleet and the Russian FSB in Chernomorskoye. The enemy tried to hit the barracks with at least one Neptune anti-ship missile, but the missile fell into the ground nearby.
▪️At the same time, four unmanned boats entered Uzkaya Bay, targeting the Black Sea Fleet boats stationed there.
▪️According to preliminary data, there were no deaths among the personnel. But again there is evidence of the enemy combining weapons to distract attention: while everyone was waiting for the Neptune, BeKs leaked into the bay.
🔻The negligence in what happened is surprising: after almost two years of active hostilities, there are still no booms at the Black Sea Fleet and FSB bases. This automatically made the Black Sea a tasty target for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
There are also questions regarding the organization of defense of the northwestern borders of Crimea. It’s no secret that in many cities of the peninsula there are a significant number of pro-Ukrainian citizens who leak data to the enemy and point them at Russian positions.
The so-called “waiters” feel as comfortable as possible, continuing to help the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the same time, security forces and other structures still do not have any powers to search for and identify them, which significantly increases the risk in this area.
❗️It is quite understandable why the emphasis in today’s night strike is on high-speed and maneuverable boats: they are most effective against enemy BaKs and landing groups. The loss of even a few will affect the capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces and increases the likelihood of resuming landings of air defense forces in Crimea.

https://t.me/rybar/54077

Many after the post of uv.tov. Rybara about the attack on Crimea are wondering what the authors of the report meant in terms of the “lack of authority” to clear out the “waiters” in this difficult area.
⭐️Most likely, colleagues mean the need for law enforcement officers to obtain paper permits to carry out activities to check specific individuals who have long been under control. According to the laws of peacetime, you need to write a piece of paper, then another piece of paper, sign the papers with the big boss, send it by courier service/mail to the government that gives permission to hold the event, wait for a response, draw up a plan for the event, and only then carry it out. Yes, and then write a report on the events. This is the law.
However, our country has gone through the difficult trials of the wars in the Caucasus, and there are legal tools. For example, the introduction of a legal regime for a counter-terrorism operation in a certain territory.
This is, first of all, a special legal regime that removes bureaucratic obstacles. It was successfully used in the Caucasus, right up to the introduction of the CTO regime in certain streets/neighborhoods where members of the bandit underground or their accomplices were located.
But, apparently, the introduction of the CTO regime in any region of Crimea is a “political issue.”

Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 11 2023 19:44 utc | 259

@anon2020 #128
Russian war correspondent Vladimir Romanov added to Rybar’s comment (November 10):

I’ll add another important point to what Comrade Rybar has written, a point he touched upon only in passing.
Coordination. This is a key point not only for defense but also during actions to oust the enemy.
An example: the Shtorm squad goes to storm enemy positions, but has no direct comms established with the quadcopter guys, let alone with the artillery. Everything goes through the headquarters only.
That is, from the moment the need for support arises to the actual support delivered, a very significant period of time passes.
During assault, the price of this period of time is quite equal life. And it’s not a person at the headquarters who’s paying it.
Establishing coordination and direct comms between attackers and quadcopters [meaning, quadcopter operators — S] and artillery will instantly and significantly increase our effectiveness on the site.
So far, unfortunately, there is no synchronization.
/the situation described in the post is occuring directly in Krynki.

Posted by: S | Nov 11 2023 20:11 utc | 261

equal life → equal to life

Posted by: S | Nov 11 2023 20:13 utc | 263

Amanda Sloat, the architect of U.S. President Joe Biden’s Europe policy, is ending her time at the National Security Council, leaving the administration amid deep uncertainties about Ukraine’s future.
Sloat has been a quiet but key figure of the Biden administration’s efforts to mend relationships with traditional allies and counter Russia.
From Amanda’s CV:
2001-2004. Awarded €1.2 million grant from European Union (EU) for 3 year, 10-country study of women’s political participation in Central and Eastern Europe.

Posted by: Passerby | Nov 11 2023 20:24 utc | 265

Posted by: S | Nov 11 2023 20:13 utc | 132
Granted it’s not a total collapse but a price is being paid in real lives because after two years of learning and improvement this sector was at the whim of senior incompetence.
I assume that everyone in the command hierarchy was aware of this yet something prevented them from acting sooner. Perhaps that “something” is what earned Prigozhin his supporters within the MoD, even if his final intervention was a shameful disaster.

Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 11 2023 21:05 utc | 267

The Nordstream case can be closed, Zaluzhny and some other guy are behind it:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/11/11/nordstream-bombing-ukraine-chervinsky/
🙂
At least we now know that Zaluzhny isn’t the CIA‘s favorite as the successor of Zelensky…

Posted by: Zet | Nov 11 2023 22:57 utc | 269

Mr. Martyanov just made a video on the crimes of Amanda Sloane
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/
But as usual it’s worse: here she is in 20202- with Victoria Nuland:
Stronger Together: A Strategy to Revitalize Transatlantic Power | Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
– Explaning in the washington language how to “revitalize” us – european relations.
https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/stronger-together-strategy-revitalize-transatlantic-power

Posted by: Paul from Norway | Nov 11 2023 23:54 utc | 271

Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 11 2023 21:05 utc | 134

I assume that everyone in the command hierarchy was aware of this yet something prevented them from acting sooner. Perhaps that “something” is what earned Prigozhin his supporters within the MoD, even if his final intervention was a shameful disaster.

Everyone wrote about several months how Prigozhin and Lotus (А.О.Елизаров) are inseparable. Where Lotus is there is also Prigo. Where Prigo is there is also Lotus. Siamese Twins. It was said that they even slept in the same bed, they were also said to have eaten from the same plate and they were also said the have shared evry day a toothbrush. However, as Prigo planned to leave for Moscow, Lotus was probably just on the toilet and missed the plan and the departure.
That’s called fate, one was the bad guy the other was the dear guy and this only why he need go alone to the toilet

Posted by: theo | Nov 12 2023 1:15 utc | 273

@ theo | Nov 12 2023 1:15 utc | 137
I have not been able to relate this post to that cited, but the phrase
“One was the bad guy the other was the dear guy”
looks more like
One was the politician and the other the operational expert, looks to me.
Interesting biography, with a touch of redemption-via-the-Foreign-Legion about it:
https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Anton_Yelizarov

Posted by: John Kennard | Nov 12 2023 4:29 utc | 275

Posted by: theo | Nov 12 2023 1:15 utc | 137
In fact, without the deaths (murders, actually) resulting from Wagner AD shooting down manned aircraft during the “rebellion” the matter might have looked very different now and I doubt that Prigozhin or anyone else thought it would play out in the disastrous way it did or even expected that gunfire would be exchanged.
I think that Prigozhin’s death (assassination) has cleared the air to the benefit of all concerned but it won’t have magically made anyone better at their job so the extent to which Wagner was a mirror image of deficiencies within the MoD and general staff will also be unchanged. I think you can see a hint of that in the problematic handling of the Krynki sector and in other almost inexplicable failures.

Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 12 2023 7:37 utc | 277

While the Russian forces in the Ukraine conflict are definitely more efficient at killing their opponents with a like 10:1 casualty ratio in Russia’s favour, all the comments detailing Russian stupidity really rankle because sometimes the Russians are really brain deficient. Ok, the Ukies will likely never be able to cross the Dnieper in Kherson region with tanks and artillery so its an irrelevant region from a military point of view, but that does not excuse the Russian troop’s lack of nifty toys like EW systems, drones and counter-battery weapons in that region. Even worse, the Russians know that the Ukie drones are operating over the region and that the Ukie artillery is quite accurate yet the Russians go and do stupid things like bunching 7 trucks together to get shelled senseless. A more reasonable approach would have been to send the trucks separately with like 30 minute intervals between them at night with no stopping allowed except at the undercover parking area at the destination but no, the Russians will send them out in convoy during daylight hours and then get them all to stop together in the middle of the road in plain sight of the Ukie artillery guiding drones. Even the Ukies do most of their supply runs and troop movement with individual civilian vehicles not in convoy at night, the Russians should really learn from their enemies.
And this business of Russian assault squads having no “direct comms established with the quadcopter guys, let alone with the artillery” is even worse, it means even if they make a breakthrough, or find a breakthrough because of no Ukie defenders being on that particular portion of the line, there will be no reinforcements coming immediately to take advantage of the situation. But the Russians don’t really want to advance anyway, that is well known already.
Whatever happens at the local, small unit level, no matter how stupid and incomprehensible, does not distract from the overall success at the strategic levels. Its like a herd of African buffalo, some will stupidly get stuck in the mud at the watering hole, some will fall prey to lions, but the herd will still surge forward to new grazing grounds anyway. So focusing on the minutiae is painful, but the Russian herd is moving forward, albeit excruciatingly slowly. Looks like Avdiivka will fall before year end.

Posted by: gT | Nov 12 2023 7:48 utc | 279

… the number of mercenaries/NATO troops in the Ukrainian army must be astronomical.
bored | Nov 9 2023 22:12 utc | 42
It’s also very likely that Nato might have anywhere between 50-100k troops in Ukraine which enables this offensives and seemingly endless manpower no one would be expecting.
unimperator | Nov 10 2023 0:49 utc | 48
Without some kind of evidence, this sounds like baseless speculation to me.
As others have pointed out, Ukr still has millions of potential cannon fodder men/women. They may not be properly trained, but with western weapons & money flowing, they’re enough to keep RuAF occupied for another year or two, minimum. And for now, I don’t see any political change happening in Kiev (I’d be very happy if I’m proven wrong).
Like it or not, we should be realistic & look at facts rather than fancy/ magical explanations.

Posted by: smuks | Nov 12 2023 8:23 utc | 281

Military summary:
-RUAF managed to claim foothold on eastern part of Stepove and cross the rail line south-east of Stepove
-Lack of EW equipment is a negative factor, applies to both sides
-No changes in Severne area
-Urozhaine sector is stripped of AFU troops. Mech units deployed to Avdeevka and marines shipped to Kherson, RUAF might make a push in this area too
-In Verbove and Rabotyne, AFU has stopped attacking, maybe they understand that Avdeevka is more important. However this area is a sore wound that keeps sucking more troops to defend against small RUAF attacks
-Krynky stabilized, RUAF bombs the village and also islands trying to find AFU positions that could support the left side of the bank
-In Kleschevka AFU keeps a foothold, maybe RUAF has some of the northern part
-NW of Artemovsk RUAF keeps an advantageous position in the triangle of Berkhivka – Dubovo-vasylivka – Yahidne water reservoir

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 12 2023 9:32 utc | 283

Posted by: gT | Nov 11 2023 5:45 utc | 118
AIW’s, Arab Israeli Wars, sorry thought I’d put the term down before the abbreviation, rookie error.
Posted by: gT | Nov 12 2023 7:48 utc | 140
The Airland Battle concept was specifically designed to leverage this seemingly perpetual weakness of the Russian top-down driven C3, by use of technology and superior training. As said before, Russia is going through a steep learning curve, in critical areas neglected previously, and in wartime that costs blood and treasure. Your stereotypical depiction of the West’s incompetence and failings, in both military and economic spheres, has a dangerous parallel with the West’s dismissive approach to Russia, during and after the Cold War. The West has, as the Soviets did, many superiorities over Russia, some are in evidence in the SMO, many are not. Russia is still far too reliant on using, time-lagged, general support fire-missions missions, without the massive armoured movements it was designed to support, and unit commanders, and often higher, are far too reliant on head on attacks that still is in their tactical DNA.
The uncomfortable truth is that if the situations were reversed, the Western equipped and trained forces would have probably ended the conflict a lot earlier. The reason, thankfully they are not, is because they preferred to follow the easy road of comforting hubris (End of History) and pretended any potential nemesis would never arrive, or dealt with. It is arriving, but not from the direction they expected it to, but that’s another topic for another thread.
Final point, you can say individual actions are largely irrelevant to the bigger picture, but that bigger picture is composed itself of many individual actions. ‘Who cares if the radio doesn’t work’ might then take on a far bigger significance if that failure in the radio net robs you of an opportunity to operationally affect a situation. Two of my favourite stories, to illustrate this micro-impacts macro phenomenon, come from the same Theatre in WW2. During the Battle for Bastogne, the Germans had a good opportunity to take the vital road junction. One commander failed to act because he was with a prostitute, the other halted prematurely when he mistook the US airborne light howitzers firing for tank fire.

Posted by: Milites | Nov 12 2023 9:39 utc | 285

Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 10 2023 20:46 utc | 101
Production is the problem.
Taurus, as an example.
It took 2 years from the first delivery to produce the first 300 units for Germany.
This gives 150 missiles/year.
Actually Germany has 600 taurus but only 150 to 300 are ready to use.
Production line of Taurus is closed and it will take 1 year to restart.
So, the maximum you can expect, for Taurus, is 150 unit/year a year from now.
Same, more or less goes for the other systems.

Posted by: Mario | Nov 12 2023 10:02 utc | 287

Posted by: Mario | Nov 12 2023 10:02 utc | 144
UK and US is (obviously) using Ukraine as a ram to hit RU strategic targets. Even targets which contribute nothing to Ukraine’s survival as a state. Nato can hit a few ships here and there with weapons used by British or US troops from Ukraine, from the Black sea seaboard, or even from Romania claiming to come from Ukraine. RUAF probably decided to accept it as a fact, as it has a marginal effect on the larger scale of Ukraine’s fate.
Russia could easily go full Israel in Kiev and Lwow, but they have chosen not to having the longer game in mind. Ukraine is looking many years of military government control, whose only purpose will be to pretty much kick the nazi oriented people west. That’s why one end point might be that Lwow becomes “Idlib” where all nazi’s are piled together and easier to control – or deter from going east.
Also, there’s a wild card in whether Russia will get a border with Romania and / or Hungary. It could magnetize Hungary and Serbia to the eastern / BRICS / SCO axis, and apparently there are some heavy underground opposition to the west in Romania as well.

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 12 2023 10:37 utc | 289

@ unimperator, §145:
Not surprised Rumania is restive about the US/EU manipulations in their (whose?) cause.
Rumania could pick up all of eastern Moldavia (Budjak + Moldova + Chernovtsy) again by doing a deal with Russia.
Rumania is excluded from Schengen and Ursula von der Lying wants to milk another €50 billion from its hapless citizens.
Along with Hungary and Slovakia (and, increasingly, Poland?) Rumania may tell the EU to get lost.

Posted by: John Marks | Nov 12 2023 11:24 utc | 291

@Milites | Nov 12 2023 9:39 utc | 143
I am not saying that your observations are wrong, but they are beside the point, in my opinion. One of the greatest strategical mistakes made by the West in this war was thinking that the Russians had to end it quickly. On the contrary, and I have said this since the start, the Russians always aimed at a prolonged war and their talking about peace talks was all posturing: the March deal would have failed even without Boris Jonhson. The war aim of the Russians is not the destruction of the Ukraine, which is merely a pawn, but that of NATO. They always needed a long, painfully slow war to exhaust the willingnes of Western, especially European, public opinions, to deplete NATO arsenals, to drain Western financial resources. A quick victory over Ukraine would have consumed a lot of Russian resources, while the West could still repeat the same game elsewhere (Belarus, Georgia, Armenia, Syria, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikstan…). The West failed to assess the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy, and failed to assess the fact that it was not Russia that could not afford an attrition war. This last failed evaluation is the ugly child of years of insane economic analysis in the West about globalization, the reasons of the 2021 inflation surge (still ongoing, contrary to Western analysts’ forecasts), the true value of different economic assets etc.

Posted by: SG | Nov 12 2023 11:44 utc | 293

147 “They always needed a long, painfully slow war to exhaust the willingnes of Western, especially European, public opinions, to deplete NATO arsenals, to drain Western financial resources.” – And it’s the only way to learn how to fight against western tactics and equippement successfully. Well done, NATO.

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Nov 12 2023 12:35 utc | 295

Posted by: SG | Nov 12 2023 11:44 utc | 147
I don’t think the Russian’s wanted a long war initially, hence the incompetent coup-de-main and the Ukrainian’s buckling under the shock of impact seeking peace. The West also sought a quick war, with an economic silver bullet to the ‘fragile’ Russian economy, while their forces were fixed in place. Neither plan survived contact with the enemy and the West had a poorer hand from which to play, hence the ad-hoc, disjointed throw anything at the wall approach. The Russians, while initially rebuffed, settled down to fighting a war of attrition, not by choice but necessity, an approach that suited their strengths far more closely than Ukraine’s Western backers. The rest is history, victors are those that can adapt their initial strategic and operational aims to align more closely to the new reality, the loser might recognise the changed landscape but be unable to match the rate or extent of their opponent’s changes. The inexorable logic is that as the two sides start to diverge in the power curve the stronger force increasingly imposes their adaptions onto the conflict, and the weaker one struggles. In the end, unable to respond effectively, the inevitable occurs and defeat follows.

Posted by: Milites | Nov 12 2023 12:35 utc | 297

“There is another problem, too. The US treasury auctions are starting to fail. Fitch just downgraded their credit outlook to negative. Yellen has responded by piling into T-bills for short term funding needs but there are limits to this mathematically; a debt spiral and exponential runaway debt scenario cannot be ruled out.”
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Nov 11 2023 17:46 utc | 125
Exactly right-that’s why time is not on the FUKUS side-that’s why the US wants a big war NOW hoping that it will force ROW to buy US Treasuries for safety.

Posted by: canuck | Nov 12 2023 12:42 utc | 299