Ukraine Open Thread 2023-266
Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Posted by b on November 9, 2023 at 14:24 UTC | Permalink
next page »⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🔎 Regarding the Dismissal of the Head of the Special Operations Forces of Ukraine - Major-General Viktor Khorenko⚡️🔹I am sure that Zelensky made the decision to dismiss him at the same time when he decided that there would be no elections in #Ukraine.
🔹It's simple: in the absence of elections, the only way to remove Zelensky is a coup d'état. And if the #US supports the coup, it will be perceived not even as a coup, but as a democratic procedure for changing power.
🔹What forces in Ukraine could carry out a coup? Alpha units. But Alpha is subordinate to the SBU, and the SBU is under Zelensky. Alpha has been cleaned up for too long. Remember how Shaytanov was arrested (deputy head of Alfa, major-general of the SBU, who allegedly planned the murder of a certain Chechen volunteer Adam Osmayev at the behest of Russian special services and was accused of state treason). It was Alpha that once went through and cleaned up the Profsoyuz House on Maidan. And it did it in 2014 under the leadership of Shaytanov. It would have cleaned up the Maidan, but there was no order. A lot has changed since then, but not everything. And the maximum that we can hope for now is that Alpha will remain neutral.
🔹And besides Alpha, there are only special operations forces, part of the AFU, i.e. subordinates of Zaluzhny. The head of the Special Operation Forces (FSO), Khorenko, was removed because he headed an organisation that could elegantly and quietly resolve the issue with the president. With the president, whose power now rests on war. There is war - there is power. With a president who categorically does not want to leave.
🔹And it cannot be said that by firing Khorenko, Zelensky has completely insured himself against being taken out of his chair by force. He only raised the stakes. It's just that if he had been eliminated by FSO specialists, no one would have realised anything: they would have found him in his office in the morning with a tightly tied scarf around his throat and his face blue, but thickly powdered with cocaine. Western heads of state would throw up their hands and say: "See, what a story has happened..." and avert their eyes.
🔹But if Zelensky is taken out by the army, there will be tanks on the streets of #Kiev and so on, an operation much more difficult to organise. But that doesn't mean it won't happen.
📌 If there was no risk of a coup, there would have been no dismissal of Khorenko.
https://t.me/sitreports/17725
Posted by: Down South | Nov 9 2023 14:42 utc | 2
The following would be a source for an assertion that certainly arouses interest. Of course, the usual scepticism regarding the truthfulness of the claim is not wrong.
I am not aware of the source, so no assessment of its veracity on my part.
https://www.theinteldrop.org/2023/11/07/exclusive-hamas-fighters-conducted-joint-training-with-fighters-from-the-ukrainian-battalion-azov/
"
The correspondence implies that in early August (at least from the 3rd to the 10th) several members of the Hamas group were at the training camp of the Azov battalion in Ukraine.
"
Conspiracy theorists will now remember that in early July Turkey released its Azov protégés in breach of contract. The "HAMAS action" was initially also somewhat reminiscent of the actions of the Right Sector militias in the Donbass.
Simply blind violence, without a second thought.
Then there was the recent report about the training of selected Ukrainians in the UK for "special" tasks.
Posted by: 600w | Nov 9 2023 14:50 utc | 3
Kim Dotcom on twitter..
The chatter from the power table is that both Biden and Zelenskyy get pushed out. Biden won’t run in 2024 and Zelenskyy will be gone within 3 months. It’s also the end of Von der Leyen. The reshuffle makes serious negotiations with Russia possible. Now a necessity for the West.
Plausible??
Erdogan saying he will join the resistance...
Likely??
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Nov 9 2023 14:58 utc | 4
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/91103
🇺🇦🇷🇺Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine for European Integration Stefanishina claims that there is “no Russian national minority” in the country.There is not a single “legally formalized community” that identifies itself as Russian, but there are Ukrainians, some of whom speak Russian, Stefanishina said.
Yesterday in Brussels, a European official, on condition of anonymity, said that the EC will not pay attention to the situation with the Russian language in the country when assessing Ukraine's readiness to join the EU.
Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 9 2023 15:15 utc | 5
Gammon
@GammonBadge
·
10h
Russia(finally) developed 23mm programmable ammunition. It passed all the tests and are ready for production. It works on the same principles as AHEAD. Effective against small UAVs.
Has a proximity fuze... contains size 00 buckshot... post has cut away photo of a round..
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Nov 9 2023 15:28 utc | 6
size 00 buckshot
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Nov 9 2023 15:28 utc | 6
---
00 is big for a drone.
For shooting birds you use birdshot.
Posted by: too scents | Nov 9 2023 15:32 utc | 7
Andrei Martynov reposts .....
And I don't mean robot mistaking a poor South Korean worker for the box of bell peppers and killing him in the process--that is a tragedy, albeit with a funny twist of Skynet going bananas or, rather, peppers. But this shit:
SEOUL, Nov 8 (Reuters) - South Korea is ramping up pest control measures and inspections to prevent a spread of bedbugs after reports of suspected infestations at some saunas and residential facilities, officials said on Wednesday. The small, flat oval insects have caused a panic in France, where reports of outbreaks on trains and in cinemas have raised worries about the impact on tourism and the Paris Olympics, which start in less than a year. Britain too has seen a jump in enquiries about the pests.
In South Korea, about 30 cases of suspected infestations have been reported nationwide, including at a traditional Korean spa called "jjimjilbang" in Incheon, west of Seoul, and a college dorm in the southeastern city of Daegu, officials said. The prime minister's office on Tuesday launched a four-week campaign with inspections of public facilities and pest control measures. "Public anxiety is inevitable as reports continue to come in," Park Ku-yeon, first deputy chief of the Office for Government Policy Coordination, who heads the team in change of the campaign, told a meeting.
Bedbugs.... what will the Resistance think of next???
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Nov 9 2023 15:34 utc | 8
Doctorow, who has a touching faith in the value of American education, argues to day that Russia's -highly educated- commentariat understands exactly what the United States wants in Ukraine and is not buying any of it.
"...However, from the standpoint of Russian elites the war in Ukraine has tilted decisively in Moscow’s favor now that Kiev has largely exhausted its human and material reserves for waging war. These elites have no interest whatsoever in a Korea-like solution, in a ‘frozen conflict’ that could be warmed up again at some time in the future when Washington so decides. No, they will not sit down at a negotiating table until and unless Kiev capitulates and accepts what amounts to neutrality and removal of the neo-Nazi directed Zelensky regime. Moscow is ready to fight on ‘as long as it takes’ to achieve its objectives."
Posted by: bevin | Nov 9 2023 15:37 utc | 9
Will the US-kraine press on with the fight, despite the futility and needless death of more Ukrainians? Quite possibly.
However, if they don't, they will probably attempt some sort of face-saving, investment-preserving peace agreement. Since both Washington and Keiv operate in an imaginary alternate reality, I expect their first attempts to broach an agreement will be tone-deaf, transparent, and insulting. Negotiations will be a rather unpleasant experience of them learning about reality.
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Nov 9 2023 15:45 utc | 10
@Dr. George W Oprisko | Nov 9 2023 14:58 utc | 4
The chatter from the power table is that both Biden and Zelenskyy get pushed out. Biden won’t run in 2024 and Zelenskyy will be gone within 3 months. It’s also the end of Von der Leyen. The reshuffle makes serious negotiations with Russia possible. Now a necessity for the West.
This should definitely happen (I hope anyway).
Zelensky: I have said before, he does not get to see the 10th anniversary of the Maidan coup as sitting President. Seems more likely than ever. Could of course still be wrong.
Biden: He is "non compos mentis" so there is no option other than to get rid of him ASAP.
Von der Leyen: PLEASE make it true. Let the criminal EU go down as well.
Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 9 2023 15:51 utc | 11
"And Ukrainians who have gone abroad understand the current situation very well - between 1.3 million and 3.3 million people want to stay forever in the EU alone (not to mention other countries)."
Maybe just maybe it is the plan. Ukraine without people, even nationalists dead. Then Bibi comes and says "you know what: if we can't leave with Palestinians why we don't move out. Look there vacant country in easter europe where we used to lived"
Posted by: Lux | Nov 9 2023 15:56 utc | 12
@Lux | Nov 9 2023 15:56 utc | 12
That has been the obvious plan for a while.
Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 9 2023 16:01 utc | 13
The people that will soon be in urgent need of a home are the palestinians, not the israelis.
So what if the plan was to move the palestinians to Ukraine ?
Posted by: Pierrot | Nov 9 2023 16:08 utc | 14
I have the lowest possible respect for Van Der Liar.
But that is similar to my level of respect for the weird bureaucratic monstrosity - the EU.
(N.B. I love Europe).
So no, I want more numbskulls like VDL representing the EU. She accurately represents the incompetence of the whole mess.
Posted by: scepticalSOB | Nov 9 2023 16:22 utc | 15
it would be easy for them to get rid of Biden, just have whoever is responsible for making sure he doesn't fall off the stage look aside at a crucial moment, via threat, blackmail, or bribery. same with zelensky, cut his coke supply with something deadly.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Nov 9 2023 16:27 utc | 16
@Dr. George W Oprisko
Please use <blockquote> </blockquote> tags instead of <i> </i> tags for quotes. Italic is hard to read.
Posted by: S | Nov 9 2023 16:36 utc | 17
@pretzelattack | Nov 9 2023 16:27 utc | 16
it would be easy for them to get rid of Biden, just have whoever is responsible for making sure he doesn't fall off the stage look aside at a crucial moment,A literal "downfall" moment... that would work.
Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 9 2023 16:41 utc | 18
they will probably attempt some sort of face-saving, investment-preserving peace agreement.
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Nov 9 2023 15:45 utc | 10
Probably but not very soon. The civilian attacks, their favorite type, are increasing not decreasing, Russia isn't going to get to the new borders for years and Kiev is perfectly safe, nato has no need for changes. That will come at a later time, when Ukr will be split in parts to become nato+eu overnight or other method will be found. EUplans to bypass Hungary's veto for the 50bn gift to Ukr by using a different method to collect the money.
Btw, nato is in Georgia to check their progress for joining tass.com/world/1703557
Posted by: rk | Nov 9 2023 17:45 utc | 19
Posted by: rk | Nov 9 2023 17:45 utc | 19
Too pessimistic for my tastes but there are 910 Taurus cruise missiles in NATO inventory, their eventually use shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone.
Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 9 2023 18:37 utc | 20
Russia will never, ever allow Georgia to join NATO, not after the Ukrainian War now in its 10th year.........................
There is no way that NATO will completely expend all 910 Taurus cruise missiles for sake a failing Zelensky regime. That would totally expend their reserve stocks, already depleted, with few in the pipeline. EU and UK basic industries have been in decline for decades, so the possibility of prompt re-supply is remote....
Posted by: Tobias Cole | Nov 9 2023 18:57 utc | 21
Yansen Z (@Rus_Jansen) wrote this on October 10, 2023. The provided maps illustrate his explanation.To understand the importance of the events near Avdeevka:
(1) — Avdeevka is the key to Krasnogorovka.
(2) — Krasnogorovka is the key to Maryinka.
(3) — Maryinka (indirectly, through Konstantinovka and Vodyanoye) is the key to Ugledar (4).
And this is only if you consider the south direction. There are also such chains to the north towards New York (Niu York, or Novgorodskoye).
The Khokhol front will certainly not collapse, but it will hurt badly, if we have sufficient forces to get it done. They'll have to retreat to the next line of defence.
Good luck to the boys. If we open Avdos, it will get easier.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/72909
Posted by: Down South | Nov 9 2023 19:00 utc | 22
I still believe that by pushing through Novomikhailovka and south of Maryinka, the Ugledar position can be exploited and cracked earlier, however, Yansen’s explanation is crystal clear and accurate.Each of the Ukrainian strongholds protects the flank of the next. Attempting to encircle Kransogorovka (with uninterrupted supply lines west and north) without first taking Avdeevka exposes the attacking force to a flanking threat from the north (and from the side of Maryinka).
Similarly, trying to take Maryinka on its own is exceedingly difficult—as demonstrated by the Ukrainians hanging on to some ruins of its empty husks for months, because Kransogorovka bolsters the town’s flank.
Likewise, Maryinka protects and supports the Ukrainian chain down the road, through Konstantinovka and Vodyanoye, and this is the road that leads to Ugledar from the northeast.
As dominoes fall, the progress should get easier and easier. Avdeevka is the linchpin of Ukrainian defensive chains to the north and to the south. Ugledar serves the same purpose on the south Donetsk front.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/72912
Posted by: Down South | Nov 9 2023 19:01 utc | 23
⚠️ URGENTLY! Based on the situation in the Avdeevsky direction.Northern flank.
After a 4-hour artillery preparation, our assault groups attacked the enemy in the forest belts east of Stepovoy and went on the offensive; the enemy suffered heavy losses and was driven back, thanks to high-quality fire support from our attack aircraft without deaths, which is an indicator of the highest level of professionalism of our infantry.
Believe in the Russian warrior, with proper support he is a superman.Also, while the report was being compiled, a message was received that our assault groups had pushed through the enemy’s defenses on the outskirts of Stepovoye and entered the territory of a populated area, they are currently consolidating their positions, the information requires confirmation, we are working on it.
Heavy fighting continues along the entire Avdeevsky front, the front line is unstable, one position can change from side to side several times a day, beware of premature reports, it is too early to celebrate the closure of the boiler.
✈️ NGP exploration🦇
Some major achievements in the Avdeevka direction, if true.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 9 2023 19:08 utc | 24
Posted by: too scents | Nov 9 2023 15:32 utc | 7
But your average shotgun does not fire 10 shells a second, or detonate them close to the target.
Posted by: Milites | Nov 9 2023 19:49 utc | 25
Russian journalist and Moscow City Duma Deputy Chairman Andrey Medvedev on premature celebrations (November 6):
What we don’t need right now are illusions. And empty hopes.It doesn’t matter what Zaluzhnyy says in Time or The Economist. The counterattack, he says, has failed, and it’s going to be more difficult now. It doesn’t matter what the fool Meloni tells the pranksters about Europe’s fatigue with the Ukraine. And you shouldn’t pay attention to the numerous articles in the Western press, where they write about how the West is putting pressure on Zelenskiy to start negotiations with Moscow. Or in one form or another they talk about the lack of prospects in the war, about the fatigue of the AFU and other things that are pleasant to our ears.
This is all nonsense, white noise. It doesn’t mean anything. The West will not stop the war in the Ukraine and support for Kiev. The word “West” here should be understood primarily as the U.S. Europe may be tired, and its economy depressed. But who cares about the opinion of a vassal? And Washington is seriously committed to the project of destruction or at least the total weakening of Russia. For years, they’ve been investing money in the Ukraine as in a business project, where the goals and the profits are deferred. The U.S. generally approaches politics like business.
It doesn’t matter if they give Kiev money for weapons now. What matters is that they’ve been building the “Ukraine as Anti-Russia” project for a long time. And while it’s still capable of reaching its goals, at least partially, the U.S. will not withdraw from it.
We shouldn’t have any illusions. Washington doesn’t care whether the Ukraine wins. Even if it simply weakens Russia, the project has already fulfilled its purpose. At the same time, even in its current state, the Ukraine is capable of reaching the necessary goals, and Washington has a large bench of local politicians to replace Zelenskiy (if there’s a sudden need for that).
Even freezing the conflict is quite suitable for the U.S. The Ukraine in this case will become an analogue of the Weimar Republic, where disgruntled veterans and politicians will sooner or later build a real Reich. So the support for the Ukraine may or may not weaken. There may be more money and weapons or none at all. Doesn’t matter.
Even if it exits the war, Washington will still not exit the Ukrainian political project as long as it can get at least some profit.
I see that we have a tendency to talk about some kind of turning point or even victory. So far, unfortunately, that is not the case. So far we are only on the way to this turning point in the SMO. But it certainly already has some outlines. However, this is not about us. This is about understanding clearly: the West, or rather Washington, will not abandon the Ukraine now. Even if it means pretty much gutting the EU economy.
And we should understand that nothing will end quickly. And ahead of us is, most likely, the winter offensive of the AFU. Where are they going to get the people for the attack is Kiev’s problem. But an offensive will happen. As well as increased activity in terms of striking our rear areas and airfields. It’s too early for us to celebrate success, a turning point, or anything like that. We need to prepare for new challenges. Without any illusions.
Posted by: S | Nov 9 2023 20:04 utc | 26
Andrey Medvedev on Krynki (November 6):
AFU’s offensive in Krynki quite clearly demonstrates what most military analysis is worth. Or, rather, the so-called analysis and so-called experts.It is easy to see what was being written and said. The AFU are exhausted. The offensive has stalled. The potential has dried up. The AFU do not have the equipment and troops to continue hostilities in the fall. And so on.
And any attempts to explain that the situation looks completely different, that the AFU will continue the offensive in the fall and enter the winter campaign and that there will be a change in tactics were ridiculed by various “experts” routinely pronouncing mantras that the West is tired of the Ukraine and the Kiev regime will collapse any day now.
The operation to cross the Dnieper was considered impossible. “Well, that would be a suicide.” And yet, the enemy is crossing the Dnieper and, regardless of losses, creating a bridgehead. It’s still small and obviously won’t hold. But nevertheless, the AFU continue to attack.
It’s hard to even imagine what they [the West] promised Ukrainian politicians for that. But the fact remains a fact. The offensive is underway, people in Ukrainian cities are being crushed.
Posted by: S | Nov 9 2023 20:17 utc | 27
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/91103
🇺🇦🇷🇺Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine for European Integration Stefanishina claims that there is “no Russian national minority” in the country.
There is not a single “legally formalized community” that identifies itself as Russian, but there are Ukrainians, some of whom speak Russian, Stefanishina said.
Yesterday in Brussels, a European official, on condition of anonymity, said that the EC will not pay attention to the situation with the Russian language in the country when assessing Ukraine's readiness to join the EU.
Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 9 2023 15:15 utc | 5
Stop kidding yourself. The Kiev regime could herd all Russian-speaking Ukrainians into cattle cars and then gas and cremate them, and nobody in Europe would dare raise so much as a peep in protest.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Nov 9 2023 20:51 utc | 28
Ursula von der Lying says the EU will arrange a special admission for the Ukraine, despite it being unlikely to command unanimity. Hungary, Slovakia, maybe Austria will object. Von der Lying says she has ways around Hungary blocking the €50 milliarden from the EU taxpayers for the Ukraine by "taking it from a different pocket".
How psychotic is von der Lying? Do the British have something on her? Previously, only the British have been so fanatical.
Let´s hope the next German elections bury the Greens and socialists - and the EU along with them.
Posted by: John Marks | Nov 9 2023 21:08 utc | 29
Posted by: S | Nov 9 2023 20:17 utc | 27
‘It’s still small and obviously won’t hold’, so what’s the point of it? You can attacks as much as you like but unless there is an operational goal you’re wasting blood and treasure. Every army has the capability to attack, even one’s on their last legs, aka Nazi Germany in ‘45. Dumb comment.
Posted by: Milites | Nov 9 2023 21:10 utc | 30
On Ukrainian "refugees" returning from Europe: Will not happen, and that has nothing to do with mobilization.
The whole point behind Maidan and the Ukrainian desire to join the EU was to open "The Garden" gate for younger Ukrainians to move to Europe. There were never any plans to make over the Ukraine into its own "Garden". The Ukrainians could have been working on that all along since 1991 if that was their intention, but instead they neglected the Ukraine and let it degenerate into shit. The younger Ukrainians cheered when Russia started the SMO because that opened the door to Europe for them. They bolted from the Ukraine as fast as they could without ever even hearing a single explosion or gunshot. Whether they get into Europe as an émigré or a refugee, they don't care, and now they are finally away from the Ukraine they hate so much, they are never going back.
None of those Ukrainian "refugees" will ever return, even if the AFU could miraculously win the conflict tomorrow and achieve peace... peace that the Ukrainian Nazis never wanted in the first place. The Ukrainian "refugees" got all they ever wanted when the Russians started the SMO. Going back to the Ukraine would be giving that up.
Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 9 2023 21:11 utc | 31
Woof, from the above it looks to me like Moscow City Duma Deputy Chairman Andrey Medvedev had an opportunity to break the fourth wall, so to speak, turn to the cameras at his side, and not quote Churchill, by indirectly quoting him, lol. ;)
"Now is not the time to fatuously talk of the end. It is not even time to talk of the beginning of that."
That would serve as a mockery of Zelenskyy's pretentions of being like Churchill, and the western media having pitched that idea. But for better or worse, and imo the better, Homie/The Russians don't play that game of trying to score cheap rhetorical flourishes, and microphone dropping moments. They leave that to flash in the pan opportunistic politicians, while they make real history, and deal in substance.
In America, one of the greatest compliments you can give an outfit is that "they underpromise, and overdeliver". I think we here understand that precious few administrations of the post World War II era can be said to have ever had, even fleetingly, a credible claim to that ideal. If Russia forces the AFU to retreat many kilometers away from the current line of contact, then imo it will be on the way to earning that distinction. If it also nets Odessa by the time all has been said and done, then history will have been made, bigly, and in a yooge way.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Nov 9 2023 21:14 utc | 32
@27
Around 25k Russian troops arrived over night to end the Attack.
Posted by: Rudi Ruessel | Nov 9 2023 21:34 utc | 34
Posted by: S | Nov 9 2023 21:16 utc | 33
Defending a dumb comment by making a dumb comment is….dumb. Please explain the use of a bridgehead that has barely expanded in two weeks, cannot sustain itself from its side, i.e. a lodgement, but is chained to the opposite bank with regards to logistics and fire-support. Being able to attack, without an operational chance of success, signifies nothing more than the exercising of that capacity, or desperation.
It’s obvious this is the rump of a plan that was meant to coincide with or support the great offensive. Trouble is the Marine units tasked with this riverine operation were used up this summer, or are rushing around acting as fire brigades.
Posted by: Milites | Nov 9 2023 21:42 utc | 35
Posted by: Rudi Ruessel | Nov 9 2023 21:34 utc | 34
Wow, and thanks for that heads-up!
While I'm by no means expert or knowledgeable about what's what, afaik the terrain that the AFU is moving around there is about as good as it gets for making surrender doable while not getting shot by the Nazi enforcers of the Zelenskyy regime. Maybe even at the squad level or larger they can call out on the radio that they want to walk towards the Russian positions.
Much worse than a large scale "advance to the rear" is a large scale surrender. Even getting cut to ribbons tends to be not all that heavily reported these days, but lots of the AFU, who are currently the only ones that can be said to be on the offensive, deciding that this "rich man's war, poor man's fight" was over as far as they were concerned, that would be big news.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Nov 9 2023 21:49 utc | 36
"Ursula von der Lying says the EU will arrange a special admission for the Ukraine, despite it being unlikely to command unanimity. Hungary, Slovakia, maybe Austria will object. Von der Lying says she has ways around Hungary blocking the €50 milliarden from the EU taxpayers for the Ukraine by "taking it from a different pocket".
How psychotic is von der Lying? Do the British have something on her? Previously, only the British have been so fanatical.
Let´s hope the next German elections bury the Greens and socialists - and the EU along with them.
Posted by: John Marks | Nov 9 2023 21:08 utc | 29"
If the dissenters cannot be bullied or threatened to fall in line, the EU will simply change the rules on the fly.
Wtiness how the EU treaty was enacted.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Nov 9 2023 21:51 utc | 37
One thing to notice is the lack of western MSM reporting of this Dnieper river crossing, or Krynky. It has very few mentions, mostly in the Ukrainian media.
It therefore seems to indicate that this river crossing hasn't been planned by the west (or maybe it has), but it seems more likely that the operation was created out of desperation to regain media attention in the west by Zelensky. So far which has failed.
It seems that the ziocons have set their course re. Ukraine and are executing their plan of gradually phasing out information of Ukraine in the media and they do not allow a few "seeming successes" to hinder with it.
US is in very big financial trouble now and they are trying to get Ursula to pick up the tab by giving Ukraine 50 billion euros. So this was long ago predicted that US will dump it onto EU, which will eventually completely choke on this turd.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 9 2023 21:52 utc | 38
fyi,
from G Doctorow's latest, only the ending of which focuses on the Ukraine conflict....
there will be no ceasefire, no frozen-conflict a la Korea 1950-1953, nor like in the Vietnam conflict a la 1954 with the Geneva Convention agreements signed in 1954 when of course afterwards the USA and its allies (Australia, S. Korea, etc) totally ignored the agreement setting the stage for a long and bloody USA war. Anyone here remember the 7-8 years when Russia patiently waited for the EU powers to force Kiev to accept the Minsk Agreements of 2014-2015. How did that work out, by the way?
No, the Russians simply won't put up with any more lies or utter bullshit or useless international agreements from the imperialist USA and EU; and I believe the Russians will get what they want in the Ukraine, by hook or by crook
"....I mention all of the foregoing to help readers appreciate how the Russian political elites and the Kremlin look at the suggestions now surfacing in U.S. and Western media that the Russia-Ukraine war has reached an impasse and that it is time for the sides to negotiate a peace.
The Russians take this to mean that the United States has shifted its priorities to the conflict in the Middle East and to preparing for the coming armed confrontation with China. Kiev can now be let go without calling undue attention to America’s unreliability as defense guarantor, because global media are focused on the Hamas-Israel fight.
However, from the standpoint of Russian elites the war in Ukraine has tilted decisively in Moscow’s favor now that Kiev has largely exhausted its human and material reserves for waging war. These elites have no interest whatsoever in a Korea-like solution, in a ‘frozen conflict’ that could be warmed up again at some time in the future when Washington so decides.
No, they will not sit down at a negotiating table until and unless Kiev capitulates and accepts what amounts to neutrality and removal of the neo-Nazi directed Zelensky regime. Moscow is ready to fight on ‘as long as it takes’ to achieve its objectives...."
Posted by: michaelj72 | Nov 9 2023 21:56 utc | 40
@Milites #35:
Please explain the use of a bridgehead that has barely expanded in two weeks…
Russian Telegram channel Dva mayora on the situation at the Dnieper front (November 9; emphasis original):
Kherson Oblast, our bankThe enemy is not abandoning its intentions to expand the bridgehead at Krynki, north of Podstepnoye and Peschanoye. We, like Comrade Romanov, also received information about the expansion of the zone of control of the AFU to the south from the settlement of Krynki into the forest. The information is confirmed from the ground, and the reasons will be sorted out by the military command.
⭐️An important new element was the use of an AFU helicopter in the Krynki area, which, while operating in the area of our bank, fired unguided missiles and flew back. Similar daring tactics of the AFU were previously noticed at Rabotino: the enemy used helicopters at extremely low altitudes to attack our positions.
In general, the situation directly indicates the enemy’s transition to the second phase of the plan of the operation to cross the Dnieper.
Also, the ratio of Ukrainian losses to Russian losses at Krynki may not be what you think it is.
In general, good job entirely missing the point of Medvedev’s comments.
Posted by: S | Nov 9 2023 22:03 utc | 41
I don't understand how Ukraine can keep pushing forward if they are supposedly sustaining heavy losses. Either the Russian side is lying about the number of Ukrainians killed/wounded thus far or the number of mercenaries/NATO troops in the Ukrainian army must be astronomical.
Posted by: bored | Nov 9 2023 22:12 utc | 42
re: Dnieper / Kherson front
It's the same UA "inflict casualties regardless of cost to self" strategy, going on autopilot since mid/late 2022. The fact of the bridgehead, however suicidal, forces RF to defend and to supply defenders, which in turn exposes them to artillery & guided rocket fire from the UA territory.
Now lately there has been talk about UA needing to reckon with unpleasant reality of force balance or whatever. But events are more simply explained if we takes the current round of stories in the press as just noise. Everyone with decision making power on the UA side, including nominal govt, banderites, profiteers, and US foreign policy bodies, are happy to keep the war going in some form for as long as possible. Genuine exhaustion of manpower is several years away, and as far as I can tell, the "send'em forward as bait" gameplan is still on.
Posted by: pxx | Nov 9 2023 22:20 utc | 43
@Rudi Ruessel #34:
Around 25k Russian troops arrived over night to end the Attack.
Source, please.
Posted by: S | Nov 9 2023 22:23 utc | 44
Posted by: Milites | Nov 9 2023 21:42 utc | 35
To be fair. The bridgehead is actually the single win for Ukraine.
Far as I can tell anyways. Therein lies the answer to the question. Fwiw
I thought S's comment was too long. I get where you are comin from tho. Also I like your assesments. You add value here imo. So thanks.
Posted by: Tannenhouser | Nov 10 2023 0:17 utc | 45
Yes, the VSU has had some success on the left bank south of Kherson. It’s something but it doesn’t go anywhere because they’re towards the end of a peninsula. Where do they go from where they are, and how do they get there beyond tactical skirmishes? Some resupply is and will be possible, but not at the level of armored vehicles, fuel, food and ammunition for enough forces to fight their way off the peninsula.
It’s a pointless use of scarce resources that can’t make a difference beyond the local and tactical level.
Posted by: Lex | Nov 10 2023 0:23 utc | 46
Re: Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 9 2023 15:51 utc | 11
Von der Leyen: PLEASE make it true. Let the criminal EU go down as well.
Von see Leyen is GONE because her term ends in mid-2024.
Gone for no other reason than the calendar.
Charles Michel is similarly term-limited.
Posted by: Julian | Nov 10 2023 0:32 utc | 47
When talking about Dnieper, one should keep the scales of distance in mind. The Dnieper river itself is 160 km in length from Ochakov to the river bend where it starts heading north, around Berislav.
It's simply impossible to defend every single village in a static fashion. Sometimes it pays to pause and see where the enemy is actually trying to land. After they have committed (in Ukraine's case supposedly 4 understrength marine brigades plus whatever territorial defense mobilized) what they can muster, then make plans how to deal with them.
I don't think these landings will be properly erased until the other matters around Rabotyne and Avdeevka are solved or at least significantly progressed.
It's also very likely that Nato might have anywhere between 50-100k troops in Ukraine which enables this offensives and seemingly endless manpower no one would be expecting.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 10 2023 0:49 utc | 48
Posted by: Tannenhouser | Nov 10 2023 0:17 utc | 45
Thanks, it’s tempting to grub around in the micro weeds, looking for morsels, but more useful to take a macro position. The bridgehead is really just another Ukrainian cemetery plot, only this time on Russian territory.
Posted by: pxx | Nov 9 2023 22:20 utc | 43
I think it’s just the forward screen of the Ukrainian defence lines, that allows the stripping of units to be sent by Avdivka and fix Russian units in place.
Posted by: S | Nov 9 2023 22:03 utc | 41
I didn’t miss the point, it was a dumb statement, entered a forest, one helicopter fired unguided rockets, seriously? Two weeks since its establishment (longer if you count the initial recce groups) and it’s largely unchanged. In March ‘45 German launched Operation Spring Awakening, two months later the war ended in Europe, the ability to attack only proves you can, nothing else, as many drunk pub brawlers have found to their cost.
Posted by: Lex | Nov 10 2023 0:23 utc | 46
The military equivalent of spending the monthly budget for rent, utilities and food on lottery tickets.
Posted by: Military | Nov 10 2023 0:51 utc | 49
Some videos for today.
The Kiev regime shelled the civilian Kalinin hospital in the center of Donetsk with US-supplied “HIMARS” rockets (miraculously there were no casualties in this attack):
https://rutube.ru/video/6ca30122be205aef8c3cdfce3e47bcc3/
Russian Grad launcher pounds enemy position north of the DPR’s Artemovsk:
https://rutube.ru/video/28f90e82eb064b484bf49148ee8cfc34/
Russian Uragan MLRS pounds enemy position on the southern DPR front:
https://rutube.ru/video/ae3540be6d394b198d71d78046edfbb8/
Russian T-80 tank pounds enemy firing positions near Krasny Liman:
https://rutube.ru/video/64aebd45ea820e82e64e15ea095543e2/
Russian MiG-31 provides air cover:
https://rutube.ru/video/ab0dc9683d43d1d0616d114eb13dc7b7/
Posted by: Nate | Nov 10 2023 1:32 utc | 50
@ Posted by: Lex | Nov 10 2023 0:23 utc | 46
I think most people haven't thought this through.
Lets see...
several hundred combatants, along a river with no real bridge for vehicle support.
Winter is coming. The air will get much colder. The water will get much colder.
As simple crossing in sub freezing temps has its own risks.
Getting just your feet wet will cause problems, and probably trench foot, since you can't dry them out. No fires allow.
Trees will not have leaves, much easier to spot people. Trenches at near water table levels will flood (from below) after 3 ft. Then freeze.
Houses are being reduced to rubble. Hiding in them won't be fun.
Why exactly would Russia want to stop the actions of insane men?
Posted by: BroncoBilly | Nov 10 2023 1:43 utc | 51
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 9 2023 21:52 utc | 38Yes, that's been the plan and it has been prepared for a while. Von der Leyen is doing what she can to carry out her mission but it's not clear yet if she'll be successful: the package may be too monstrous in terms of money, and the other EUropean countries may refuse. Neither the current receivers (among them Poland, Hungary) nor the givers are happy about a EU where everyone pays and only Ukraine receives. Even government members in Berlin voiced disagreement.US is in very big financial trouble now and they are trying to get Ursula to pick up the tab by giving Ukraine 50 billion euros. So this was long ago predicted that US will dump it onto EU, which will eventually completely choke on this turd.
In my opinion, the EU has been dead for a while already, starting with the overextension in the 1990s, followed by the war against Serbia and finally the common currency which was a short-term gain for the exporting economies but won't last either.
Now they're frantically trying to save the ailing EU project by acquiring new members: this is a bit like trying to save a failed marriage by making another baby. I believe that the end of EU as a meaningful political entity is near, and I hope that the same will happen to NATO soon enough.
Posted by: Konami | Nov 10 2023 1:52 utc | 52
Re: Posted by: unimperator | Nov 10 2023 0:49 utc | 48
It's also very likely that Nato might have anywhere between 50-100k troops in Ukraine which enables this offensives and seemingly endless manpower no one would be expecting.
Anyone who claims that the extra NATO manpower in Ukraine is ”Unexpected” has not been paying attention for the last 18-24 months.
No serious person could make such a claim.
Posted by: Julian | Nov 10 2023 2:47 utc | 53
Gents, I believe the use of former POWs for setting up an armed formation is a good idea.
I wonder why Russia is not organizing these as a "Free Ukraine" Police or Gendarme type units? Does this imply that a free Ukraine is no longer a possibility?
The Russian UN envoy has said charges of war crimes will be leveled at Western backers of the Neo Nazi regime.
I believe the hints of a "settlement" are being laid bare for the West.
Posted by: Suresh | Nov 10 2023 4:19 utc | 54
I don't understand how Ukraine can keep pushing forward if they are supposedly sustaining heavy losses. Either the Russian side is lying about the number of Ukrainians killed/wounded thus far or the number of mercenaries/NATO troops in the Ukrainian army must be astronomical.
Posted by: bored | Nov 9 2023 22:12 utc | 42
My thoughts -
I think people here have greatly underestimated the size of the Ukrainian army and potential recruits and manpower.
Take a much smaller country - Bosnia and Herzegovina - as an example.
BiH had a population of around 4 million when the war started. It was divided into 3 main factions (& actually there were more as there was infighting between the Muslims - but set that aside). The largest was the Bosnian Muslims at 43% of the population which would be 1.72 million people. They - the Bosnian Muslim side (ARBiH) had an infantry of 200,000 officially, and with some claims of it having 240,000 and even 280,000.
So let's take the 200,000 figure for a population of 1,720,000. 1.72 is 20 times smaller than Ukraine's population if we take Ukraine being 34.4 million, which is a fair figure. So if 1.72 million could get an army of 200,000+, then 34.4 million could get an army of 4,000,000.
But being (much) more conservative and taking half that we have 2,000,000.
Now Russian claims averaged around 300 Ukrainians dying per day for over 15 months - so 300 times 465 days is 139,500.
Then starting in early June 2023, there was an increase in Ukrainian death rates over twice that, according to Russian claims. So lets say 700 per day for over 5 months now, so around 160 days. 700 times 160 days is 112,000.
Adding 139,500 and 112,000 we get 251,500. A lot, but 251,500 is only 12.575% of 2 million. So that means they have over 87% of their army/potential army left so they can certainly fight on for a few more years at this pace.
And to that you have the foreign mercenaries. I believe the Polish are the biggest faction of foreign mercs.
Posted by: MiniMo | Nov 10 2023 4:49 utc | 55
I don’t think NATO has 910 Taurus missiles. I’m pretty sure it’s 910 used Ford Tauruses. And they’re being sent to the Ukraine to defend Sumy.
Posted by: Sentient | Nov 10 2023 5:05 utc | 56
Here's a Russian reporter on Telegram who was always aware of the Ukrainian strength and threat. He is referring to Russian media and Russians being fooled into a false sense of security, but it applies to many on blogs like this as well.
I notice a trend, and it’s not very good. This mainly applies to the central media, television, where they love indiscriminate chatter - they throw out some numbers, their own arguments, reasons. I see how they are beginning to convince us all that that’s it - we have actually already crushed the Ukrainian army, it is about to fall to its knees.Stop already! This is wrong. Ukraine, even in the region of Zaporozhye, Rabotino, Verbovoy, does not give up attempts to move forward. Moreover, they are now trying to expand the bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region near the village of Krynki, even trying to transfer armored vehicles there.
Yes, Russian military personnel are suppressing these attempts. The RF Armed Forces inflict serious losses on the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, driving them literally into underground holes, grinding them with artillery. At the same time, the enemy did not abandon his plans and did not stop.
Against this background, there is a substitution of concepts again, and this is a very dangerous trend, because if something difficult happens at the front, and this can happen (if anyone has forgotten, war is not only victories, there are also retreats, and losses, and we saw this within the framework of the SBO), then it will again become a shock, everyone will start screaming and panicking.
It is too early to sound the fanfare and distribute awards, talk about the ranking of generals and the birth of great commanders. We haven't proven it yet. We have not yet defeated a dangerous enemy, the Mankurts, the former Russians for whom the entire collective West works. And in this regard, our forces are not equal. And as soon as we began to express cautious optimism, to say that industry had begun to level off, etc., that’s it—they were already talking that we were about to put pressure, and for the crests everything was going like a house of cards. Now, let’s take Avdeevka and they’ll run.
They won't run. We have to fight, we have to defeat, we need huge human reserves, which without mobilization are difficult to scrape together even as volunteers. We can barely make ends meet. There is an influx, but this is not what we would like. This is the first one.
And secondly, despite all the mobilization of industry, there is clearly not enough production capacity. This can be seen in the equipment of our surface fleet. Let's look at the same Black Sea Fleet, which lost its flagship and is now withdrawn from Sevastopol in order to minimize the consequences of enemy attacks. What does he get besides floating cruise missile launch pads? We need warships of various kinds that can ensure our dominance, interrupt logistics routes on the Black Sea and deprive the enemy of the initiative. This is still to come.
Let's come down to earth. Let's not talk only about wishes and desires. We have dozens of experts who are already burying the Ukrainian Armed Forces and driving an aspen stake into the coffin of Ukronazism, changing in batches. Like cluster munitions, they are inserted into these TV channels, and they hammer from morning to night, actually misinforming the viewer. This is not what we need to talk about. It is necessary to say that it is time to become a military camp and prepare for a long confrontation.
This is if we want to achieve results, and not compromise with opponents without fulfilling the tasks of the Northern Military District set by the President. Let me remind you that this is denazification and demilitarization of the Kyiv regime. In reality, this means the military defeat of Ukraine, the occupation of at least the capital and key regions, depriving the enemy of access to the Black Sea and covering our western borders to such an extent that no one would even think about deploying NATO military contingents on the borders of historical Russia.
@voenkorKotenok
Posted by: MiniMO | Nov 10 2023 5:15 utc | 57
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Front #Summary for 9 Nov 2023 by 19:51⚡️🔹In #Kherson Direction, the AFU continue their attacks from entrenchments on the islands towards #Poyma, #Podstepnoye and #Peschanoye. In #Krynki they expanded further. Reports from the field indicate that the AFU artillery exceeds our counterbattery capabilities and that they raid from helicopters, firing missiles at our positions. The enemy seems to feel very confident and we have not been able to change the situation so far.
🔹In #Zaporozhye Direction, the rains have complicated both ground combat operations and aerial recon. Nevertheless, our army retook positions near #Novoprokopovka. West of #Verbovoye, local fights are ongoing. Our artillery foiled an AFU breakthrough attempt, and now ours are clearing the landings.
🔹In #Bakhmut Direction, our forces entered #Kleshcheyevka. The next stage will be to retake the heights, giving fire control over the area. Ours have no such successes at #Andreyevka yet. On the northern flank, our forces are gradually expanding their zone of control in the area of the #Berkhovskoye Reservoir. Our army regained the initiative and defused the threat of an AFU breakthrough towards #Bakhmut.
🔹In #SouthDonetsk Direction, our heavy artillery worked from early morning, and later aviation also joined. Then our forces attacked east of #Ugledar and south of #Novomikhaylovka. Fierce fights are ongoing and info about our progress is incoming.
🔹In #Svatovo Direction, our army has advanced a little more from #Orlyanka on the #Sinkovka - #Petropavlovka line and is engaged in local fights near #Dibrova.
https://t.me/sitreports/17742
Posted by: Down South | Nov 10 2023 5:42 utc | 58
When they talk about the possible “next offensive” of the Ukrainians, one must understand that there can be only one source of weapons for it: American bases for storing weapons and equipment. There are no more reserves in Europe, Western European armies will have to be plundered, confiscating first-line equipment.And a lot of equipment, only heavy equipment, will be required: 800-1000 tanks, no less than a number of artillery pieces of 152/155 mm caliber, an appropriate set of engineering vehicles, and, of course, ammunition - at least a million, and preferably one and a half million shells, to ensure sufficient weight for the salvo for quite some time.
There are no guarantees: for all this, you need to take units somewhere, equip them and train them, and compared to last year, the ability of Ukrainians to recruit new units has noticeably dropped, and the opportunities to bring existing ones to the rear for replenishment and training are also not so great. If this process were started now, the trained units could theoretically be ready by summer. But it is impossible to create the necessary package of weapons, and especially ammunition, for them during this time.
Conclusion? The conclusion is simple: talk about a “new offensive” will continue until the United States comes up with an answer to the political question of what to do with Ukraine. With elections looming, it will be difficult to answer this question without damaging one's reputation.
They can, and most likely will try, to brighten up the picture with aviation and missile weapons. A couple of dozen F-16s with JAASM missiles will periodically carry out sabotage raids of 1-2-3 pairs of vehicles with launches at important objects, into “windows” not covered by AWACS. There will probably be more ATACMS. But in general, on the scale of the war, it will be reminiscent of the V-1 and German fighter-bomber raids on Britain in 1944 - their scale was completely insufficient to change anything, but they supported the population of the Reich morally.
Here, in addition to the Ukrainian Reich, the recipients will be the entire “free world”, so we must be prepared for the fact that every successful hit by ATACMS, “Storm” or JASSM in the West and in Kiev will be sucked in every way in search of evidence of Putin’s imminent “defeat”.
It will be necessary to pay the most attention to air defense supplies. The gradual increase in the number of NASAMS, Toffees and other products, coupled with the adaptation of Buks to old American missiles, will allow the Ukrainian to form air defense areas in the most critical areas, and we need to seriously prepare for their opening.
https://t.me/sitreports/17759
Posted by: Down South | Nov 10 2023 5:45 utc | 59
‼️🇷🇺Offensive on Avdeevka: the Russian army broke through the defenses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces along the railway and along the entire northern flank
The tactical defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is also recognized by Ukrainian military analysts who publish maps.
▪️"Northern flank of Avdeevka. The Russians crossed the railway along almost the entire section of their offensive."
▪️"The Russians also had success west of Krasnogorovka ."
▪️"The dacha village," "Tochmash Garden Cooperative ", located northeast of Stepovoye , was captured by the Russian Armed Forces." The Ukrainian Armed Forces artillery is trying to stop the breakthrough.
▪️"The Russian Army held its positions west of the railway. Active hostilities continue.
▪️ The Russian Army continues attacks in the direction of the Avdeevsky coke plant.
▪️ North and northeast of Vodyanoye, Russian infantry continues attacks in the eastern and northeastern directions..
▪️The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the evening report reported that in the Avdeevsky direction the Russian Armed Forces, with the support of aviation, are carrying out assault operations southeast of Novokalinovoy, Avdeevka and Pervomaisky, 7 attacks have been carried out since the morning. Under artillery and mortar fire, Ukrainian Armed Forces positions in about 15 settlements, including: Novokalinovo, Orlovka, Lastochkino, Avdeevka, Oprosnoye and Severnoye.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/72950
Posted by: Down South | Nov 10 2023 5:46 utc | 60
or detonate them close to the target.
Posted by: Milites | Nov 9 2023 19:49 utc | 25
---
A proximity fuze makes a smaller shot size more effective, because the shorter striking distance allows the shot to retain more inertia.
It is not as if a drone is a hardened target. #6 shot will do, and their are a lot more of those per shell than 00.
Posted by: too scents | Nov 10 2023 6:15 utc | 61
The empire needs war and there was too much peace breaking out. Ukraine will stagger on for a while.
Military summary:
-Krynky is a stalemate now with neither RUAF can push AFU out now nor AFU being able to attack out from it - apparently RUAF managed to establish a proper front
-future events in Krynky determined by who can control the medium ranges to the rear
-RUAF made some more clearing of the field NW of Krasnogorovka (Avdeevka)
-Lancet drones used very close to the front line in Avdeevka
-AFU forced to redeploy its artillery from Kleschevka-Bakhmut-Andryivka to around Avdeevka, manifested in high losses
-RUAF creates some pressure in Kleschevka, AFU abandoned the plains and moved their defensive line to the hill line west and north of it
-RUAF continues making tangible gains around NW of Bakhmut
-US money given to Ukraine is on its last legs for now, US is also unable to give Ukraine anything other than basic necessities, bullets and some air defense missiles
-RUAF is using this time to apply more pressure as they understand AFU is running low on stuff
-AFU mobilization plans are completing maybe 10 % of requirements
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 10 2023 7:30 utc | 63
@11
Biden: He is "non compos mentis"
He is compost would have sufficed.
Posted by: J.C | Nov 10 2023 7:34 utc | 64
Our sources from the Cabinet of Ministers reported that the IMF demanded that the Government cut funding for disabled people in the country by half.In the West, they believe that Ukraine is turning into a country of disabled people, and the number of 3 million is unaffordable for the budget; it is urgently necessary to reduce the financial burden by 50%.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/20425
Our source in the OP said that the IMF demands the abolition of disability status in 2024, and not in 2025, as stated by the Head of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, Viktor Lyashko.The Cabinet of Ministers should reduce social expenditures in the second half of 2024, and reduce the 2025 budget items for people with disabilities by 50%.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/20435
Posted by: Down South | Nov 10 2023 7:54 utc | 65
Bevin, I also read Doctorow's short piece, which seems to me excellent. I don't think that he is saying that the US higher education system is excellent. He is instead saying that the Atlanticists in Russia believe that it is excellent and that they are terribly unhappy that an Ivy League degree is no longer the royal road to power in Russia as it once was.
In South Africa there's still an inclination to promote politicians on the basis of American MBA degrees (mostly from George Washington, conveniently close to Langley) and legal training (even though our legal system is totally different) and of course economists because economics as she is taught in America and South Africa requires neither knowledge nor talent, but nobody would hire anyone to perform any serious practice project on the basis of an American degree.
Posted by: MFB | Nov 10 2023 8:10 utc | 66
In the whole of the SMO, Russia has not attacked NATO assets outside Ukraine once. Why?
I think it's because there's no need to. If Russia has an overwhelming victory against Ukraine, it's automatically a devastating defeat for NATO, EU.
Posted by: Passerby | Nov 10 2023 9:45 utc | 67
Posted by: S | Nov 9 2023 20:04 utc | 26
Posted by: S | Nov 9 2023 20:17 utc | 27
Great analysis from Andrey Medvedev. Ukraine is not a purely military endeavour any more than Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya etc. Ukrainian operations are a success if they support the core US goals of killing Ukrainians, killing Russians, draining Russian resources, prolonging the conflict.
PR and morale boosters are critical “military” goals by this standard, anything to keep Ukrainian sentiment in play and malleable.
Andrey Medvedev understands that the complete destruction of Ukraine, the elimination of a viable domestic Ukrainian population and the disastrous impoverishment of the EU are irrelevant or even desirable to US strategists.
The whole Ukrainian military response has been no more likely to succeed by purely military criteria than this latest crossing but the point is to harm Russia, as stated in Barry Posen’s 1994 “A Defense Concept for Ukraine” and RAND’s 2019 “Overextending and Unbalancing Russia”.
There is no excuse for pretending not to understand that Ukrainian military operations are directed to those ends, and the virtual destruction of the Ukrainian state, rather than towards the defence of Ukraine’s integrity.
Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 10 2023 9:58 utc | 68
Apparently AFU 110th brigade released a video (stationed in Avdeevka around coke plant) about the bad situation.
Military summary report noted that most of the times AFU released videos of bad situations, has subsequently led to abandoning of positions and certain parts of the front collapsing within a week or two. Whether it happens this time we will see.
Also more RU side resources talk about something going on in Stepove but no geolocated videos yet of anything.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 10 2023 10:14 utc | 69
The first surrender of a pregnant Ukrainian soldier, documented on video.The woman shouted "Don't beat me! I'm pregnant!"
Our guys asked her "What have you forgotten here, pregnant?"
- FRWL reportshttps://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1722930137635688509
Way to go Zelensky!
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 10 2023 11:21 utc | 70
Chessmaster sending Nazis from azov for 5 star holiday to Turkey only to find them again back at frontlines
Take them out on the spot!!!
Don’t treat them like humans!!!
This bastard returned back but had mo luck
🇷🇺🇺🇦Egor Gorbatenko (call sign “Yura”), a native of Lugansk and a traitor to his land, has been liquidated. Since 2014, in the battalion/regiment “Azov” (banned in Russia. After the start of the North Military District, he participated in the battles for Mariupol, and was captured from Azovstal. After the exchange, he underwent rehabilitation, retraining, and again set out to kill Russians. But now, instead of Elenovka, he was transferred to Bandera.
Posted by: SlowSoft | Nov 10 2023 11:26 utc | 71
69
Since beginning of SMO the Ukronazis releasing such psyops videos.
I cant watch these Hollywood Psyops clips anymore
Its so obvious that they want to confuse the Russians and trap them to do something stupid
U learn these psyops tactics in first semester at Bundeswehr University Neubiberg
NATO psyops script
Posted by: SlowSoft | Nov 10 2023 11:38 utc | 72
In the whole of the SMO, Russia has not attacked NATO assets outside Ukraine once. Why?
I think it's because there's no need to. If Russia has an overwhelming victory against Ukraine, it's automatically a devastating defeat for NATO, EU.
Posted by: Passerby | Nov 10 2023 9:45 utc | 67
Technically it was a bit, once, when that pilot who put fuel on the drone. And since then zero, they are still flying during attacks (today it was another one), so I can think there's very probable that a few Russian planes where shot down somewhere, could be even Syria, and the message was received. emen did shoot a drone properly, compare that.
Now everyone is waiting for the Arctic lng pipes, or whatever they have there, to blow up since this week US publicly announced they plan to "kill" it, that was the word used. They even sanctioned and blocked Japan from using the project and they were investors and really wanted some gas.
Posted by: rk | Nov 10 2023 11:45 utc | 73
73
With Putin in Power the US can do whatever they want
Since Minsk 2 + NS 2 the western partners know that the president of Russia is a naive weakling
Somebody else would carry the war into US living rooms
Posted by: SlowSoft | Nov 10 2023 12:21 utc | 74
The latest Ukranazi cope:
They didn't really ever launch a counteroffensive, it was all a psyops!
https://t.me/militarywave/6304
The 90000 dead cannon fodder and wiped out Western armour are all psyops too!
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 10 2023 12:27 utc | 75
'73
With Putin in Power the US can do whatever they want'.
Oh look, a Froll ^^^^^^^^^^
(Froll = Failed Troll, whose comment is so dumb, all it generates is pity in the eyes of the reader.)
Posted by: scepticalSOB | Nov 10 2023 12:54 utc | 76
SlowSoft @72: "...the Ukronazis releasing such psyops videos."
Nonsense. Wishcasting to protect cherished delusions.
Reverse psychology in marketing does not work that directly. Furthermore, in current circumstances there is too much probability of unintended consequences and blowback. For instance, what if NAFO troglodytes happen to see the video rather than Russian command staff? Oh, wait, you delusional NAFO clowns just go into denial mode like your post indicates. Well, how about if normal Ukrainian (and western) civilians see such videos? What if other Ukrainian troops see these videos? Morale and commitment to continue the war will be undermined. Further mobilization will be compromised. Finally, is the cost to the Empire of Delusions' war effort of increased Russian troop morale from such videos offset at all by the slim chance that Russian command will become overconfident and abandon caution to switch from Slow SMO to blitzkrieg? Not even slightly.
I suggest you not try this retarded tactic in a marketing campaign to boost sales of burgers for a burger chain. You'll lose more existing customers than you could possibly gain in new sales.
Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 10 2023 13:08 utc | 77
@ rk, §73:
Japan needs to jump ship - and quickly unless they want to end up sacrificial lambs, like the EU and the Ukraine, to American geopolitical priorities.
Japan should agree with Russia that Japan kicks the Americans off the Ryukyu Is. in exchange for the Russians returning the Kuril Is., sign a WW2 Peace Treaty - and even an alliance - whereby Japanese high-tech investment develops the Russian Far East in exchange for cheap, reliable oil & gas from nearby Saxalin.
Posted by: John Marks | Nov 10 2023 13:09 utc | 78
76
Oh look a kremlin red line Froll
Still enough red colors?
Posted by: SlowSoft | Nov 10 2023 13:34 utc | 79
77
If u buy that psyops burger its ok
Enjoy & become happy
U don’t need to write a book
Posted by: SlowSoft | Nov 10 2023 13:36 utc | 80
"U don’t need to write a book"
Too many words for the mouth-breathing NAFO-tard trollbot? Good.
Nobody is buying what the NAFO FUDsters are selling.
Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 10 2023 13:41 utc | 81
>There is no way that NATO will completely expend all 910 Taurus cruise missiles for sake a failing Zelensky regime. …
>Posted by: Tobias Cole | Nov 9 2023 18:57 utc | 21
Support for Zelensky or his regime is a straw man.
Unless the conflict stops before, some, most or all of the 910 missiles will be used exactly as we have seen Storm Shadow / Scalp used, a simple continuation of the demonstrated mission profile.
These cruise missile strikes are for the sake of taking out high value Russian assets: ships, bridges, bunkers, command & control, communications, ammunition depots, airfields, ships in port or at sea, anything of sufficient value, which is a lot. After that there are other NATO cruise missiles types that can / will be fed into the conflict.
As to the stocks becoming depleted, they are attack weapons, no defensive role, their use in Ukraine is well within the scenarios for which they were designed and procured. The reality of the situation could hardly be clearer.
Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 10 2023 14:23 utc | 82
Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 10 2023 14:23 utc | 82
So you think you can deplate most, if not all, the attack weapons and then, in case of conflict what you are going to do? Stay in defense?
Posted by: Mario | Nov 10 2023 15:25 utc | 83
MoD Russia, [11/10/23 8:25 AM]
https://t.me/mod_russia_en/10776
Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation
(4–10 November 2023)
Part I (see Part II)
In the period from 4 to 10 November 2023, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation inflicted 11 group strikes with high-precision weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles on the military airfield infrastructure, arsenals, storage sites for artillery ammunition, weapons and military hardware, as well as enemy POL bases.
In addition, the units of Ukrainian servicemen, nationalists, and foreign mercenaries were defeated. All the assigned targets have been engaged.
▫️ In Kupyansk direction, the Zapad Group of Forces has improved the situation along the front line in several sectors and repelled 18 AFU attacks.
Air strikes and artillery fire hit the manpower and equipment of the 25th Airborne, 68th Jaeger, 14th, 54th and 67th mechanised brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine close to Sinkovka, Ivanovka, Zagoruykovka (Kharkov region), Sverdlovka and Stelmakhovka (Lugansk People's Republic).
The enemy losses were more than 710 servicemen, one tank, 11 armoured fighting vehicles, 18 motor vehicles, and 16 field artillery guns.
In Krasny Liman direction, the Tsentr Group of Forces supported by aviation, artillery fire, and heavy flamethrower systems, repelled nine attacks launched by assault groups of the 1st Special Forces Brigade, the 24th and 47th mechanised brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as the 15th Regiment of the National Guard of Ukraine.
In addition, cluster of manpower and hardware of the 67th Mechanised Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the 125th Territorial Defence Brigade were defeated close to Yampolovka and Serebryanka (Donetsk People's Republic).
The total enemy losses during this period amounted to more than 725 troops killed and wounded, three tanks, 13 armoured fighting vehicles, 20 motor vehicles, six field artillery guns, and two MLRS launchers.
▫️ In Donetsk direction, the Yug Group of Forces inflicted fire damage on AFU manpower and hardware near Mariynka, Kurdyumovka, Bogdanovka, Andreevka, and Kleshcheyevka (Donetsk People's Republic).
Over the past week, Russian units have repelled 16 enemy attacks. The total enemy losses during this period amounted to more than 1,590 troops killed and wounded, three tanks, 14 armoured fighting vehicles, 32 motor vehicles, 17 field artillery guns, and three MLRS launchers.
In South Donetsk direction, the Vostok Group of Forces took more advantageous lines and positions, and also repelled three enemy attacks.
Air strikes and artillery fire defeated manpower and hardware of the 79th Air Assault and 72nd Mechanised, as well as the 105th and 128th territorial defence brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces close to Novomikhailovka, Staromayorskoye, Urozhaynoye (Donetsk People's Republic), and Priyutnoye (Zaporozhye region).
The total enemy losses amounted to more than 800 troops killed and wounded, one tank, 12 armoured fighting vehicles, and 22 motor vehicles.
During the counterbattery warfare, eight field artillery guns and one MLRS launcher were hit. In addition, one artillery ammunition depot of the 127th Territorial Defence Brigade was wiped out near Bogatyr (Donetsk People's Republic).
Russian Defence Ministry (https://t.me/mod_russia_en)
Part II (see Part I)
In Zaporozhye direction, units of the Russian Group of Forces carried out intensive defence, during which repelled 14 attacks of the AFU units near Verbovoye and Rabotino (Zaporozhye region).
In addition, strikes were delivered at manpower and hardware of the AFU 33rd, 65th, and 118th mechanised brigades near Malaya Tokmachka and Stepovoye (Zaporozhye region).
The enemy's losses for the week amounted to 495 servicemen, five tanks, 32 armoured fighting vehicles, 13 motor vehicles, as well as six field artillery guns.
▫️ In Kherson direction, the enemy units made unsuccessful attempts to capture bridgeheads on islands and the left bank of the Dnepr by AFU 35th and 36th marine brigades. The enemy units were hit by firepower.
As a result of preventive actions by the Russian forces and artillery fire assaults, AFU have lost up to 505 servicemen, 18 field artillery guns, 15 boats, and 25 motor vehicles.
In addition, 26 Ukrainian servicemen have surrendered in this direction during the week.
On 9 November 2023, the personnel of the motorised rifle company of the Dnepr Group of Forces under the command of Senior Lieutenant Zolto Arsalanov neutralised the servicemen of the 36th Marine Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine while trying to gain a foothold on the left bank of the Dnepr River.
A unit under the command of Senior Lieutenant Zolto Arsalanov eliminated most of the militants and captured 11 Ukrainian servicemen.
For the courage and heroism shown in repelling the enemy attack, Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation General of the Army Sergei Shoigu presented the commander of the unit and the military personnel of the company with state awards.
Air defence systems shot down eight combat aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force during the week: four MiG-29 fighter jets, two Su-27 and two Su-25 ground-attack aircraft.
In addition, 32 HIMARS projectiles, 12 Storm Shadow and SCALP tactical cruise missiles, two Neptune anti-ship missiles, two JDAM guided aerial bombs, as well as 205 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were shot down.
In total 5351 Ukie personnel KIA/WIA during this period.
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Nov 10 2023 15:37 utc | 84
Another sign of Ukie desperation....
https://t.me/AussieCossack/10705
A pregnant Ukrainian female soldier surrenders to Russian troops in a sign of Zelensky's desperation.
"Please don't hit me I am pregnant!"
"What are doing here if you are pregnant!?"
Please don't leave me here!"
Post is accompanied by video showing Russian soldier taking her into custody...
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Nov 10 2023 15:45 utc | 85
Ukraine Weekly Update: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-a9e
Posted by: Robert Hamilton Camp | Nov 10 2023 16:01 utc | 86
To all who have not forgotten him, update about Gonzalo Lira: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kvbOYYBPnF4
Posted by: Apollyon | Nov 10 2023 16:19 utc | 87
Thanks for the update Apollyon. I miss his roudtables. My guess is that they will keep him in detention until the conflict ends, perhaps without a trial.
Posted by: the pessimist | Nov 10 2023 16:28 utc | 88
Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 10 2023 9:58 utc | 68
So Russia loses when she wins and loses if she loses? Great, declare the US the winner and let’s all go home! I don’t know about you but Russia’s getting stronger, due to this conflict not weaker, both economically, militarily and crucially as a unified society. The great Ukrainian project is close to collapse, the money laundering opportunities dwindling, the largest Western proxy force on the doorstep of Russia, on its third iteration of military forces and traditional supporters of such military intervention increasingly sceptical and questioning. But sure, Russia loses by gaining all this.
What’s also neatly side-stepped, by buying into the self-justificatory, CYA, Rand Corp, retcon version of recent events, is that the West entirely failed in their primary aim, the removal of Putin. But of course, Putin being strengthened in his position as leader and having his internal enemies weakened (oligarchs, Western multi-nationals, liberal intelligentsia etc) is once again Russia losing. Game over, everything Ukraine does, even die, is part of the plan, I’ll start preparing for a life of grateful servitude under the elites who thought up this no lose plan!!
Posted by: Milites | Nov 10 2023 17:29 utc | 89
Ukrainian 2001 census
The last official census held in Ukraine was in 2001. It has a Wikipedia entry with breakdowns by region, urban/rural, stated nationality, etc. Worth a look. Total 2001 population around 48.24 million of which 37 million identified as Ukrainian, 7.3 million as Russian. Majority of "Russians" only in Crimea while about 1/3 of population in other 'Russian' regions. Of course this doesn't take into account political affiliation which election results suggest was in the neighborhood of 50% pro-Russian nationwide with higher proportions in the eastern and southern oblasts. 46% men, 54% women. 45% over 30 years of age (now over 50). Taking the 2001 numbers there was a loss of ~9.8 million in 2014 to Crimea, Donetsk, and Lughansk, while emigration prior to the conflict was estimated to be around 6 million (could be higher). Birthrate below replacement also. Since the beginning of the conflict maybe another 7 million to Russia and Europe. Le Monde says 8 million registered in Europe, but some have returned. ~2 million reportedly went to Russia. This gives a conservative estimate of ~25 million total population today, but likely nearer 20 million. ~11.5 million men of which ~6 million are under 50. Of course these are crude estimates, and in most cases conservative, so erring on the side of higher than actual numbers remaining available males. If 1 million took part in the conflict so far that's 17% of total available. Considering what is required to keep the country functional I would say these are pretty grim numbers.
Posted by: the pessimist | Nov 10 2023 17:35 utc | 90
References:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_Ukrainian_census
http://2001.ukrcensus.gov.ua/eng/results/general/
Posted by: the pessimist | Nov 10 2023 17:39 utc | 91
An interesting and amusing take on the parlous state of the U.S. military. Like everything else in America, a total and disastrous mess thanks to decades of unchecked Liberals in power.
https://scottlocklin.wordpress.com/2023/11/08/current-year-us-military-is-hilarious/
Posted by: ASensibleMan | Nov 10 2023 17:42 utc | 92
Colonelcassad:
After statements that the EU would not be able to fulfill promises to supply 1,000,000 artillery shells to Ukraine by the spring of 2024, NATO Secretary General and Scholz called on Europe to prepare for a very long war against Russia. This is again an answer to the question of those citizens who are seriously interested in when the war will end. The war will not end for a long time. Nobody is going to abandon the strategy of exterminating the Ukrainian population against Russia, so a lot of people will die in Ukraine this and next year.
Posted by: MiniMO | Nov 10 2023 18:20 utc | 93
Tass is reporting that Russia accepted 5 million refugees from Ukraine during the conflict. Of course we have no idea from which regions these people came. My calculations above don't take into account that only parts of Donetsk and Lughansk separated in 2014 and also ignored Zaporhizia and Kherson. The latter two had a 2001 population of ~3 million, so if 1/3 remain in the Russian controlled areas that further reduces the available population. Additionally we know that many males subject to conscription fled Ukraine, there is a sizable disabled population not subject to conscription, and there are other legitimate reasons for deferment. If only ~5 million were available to begin with then over 20% have served with perhaps 80% of those 1 million KIA or disabled.
Talk of 'unlimited reserves' available is bunk. Kiev probably only has a rough idea of the available pool, but the conscription of women is a sure sign that the situation is very dire. Sputnik says that Kiev refuses to give NATO arms to ordinary recruits fearing that a revolt may be in the cards and the weapons could be used in an insurrection.
Putin visited Rostov military headquarters yesterday and surely discussed strategy. My guess is that maintaining pressure all along the front and further reducing UAF manpower is the preferred strategy.
Posted by: the pessimist | Nov 10 2023 18:24 utc | 94
The war will not end for a long time. Nobody is going to abandon ...
Posted by: MiniMO | Nov 10 2023 18:20 utc | 93
---
"It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future."
Posted by: too scents | Nov 10 2023 18:47 utc | 95
An interesting and amusing take on the parlous state of the U.S. military. Like everything else in America, a total and disastrous mess thanks to decades of unchecked Liberals in power.
https://scottlocklin.wordpress.com/2023/11/08/current-year-us-military-is-hilarious/
Posted by: ASensibleMan | Nov 10 2023 17:42 utc | 92
Thank you, an excellent read, a man after my own heart. The comments section was on the mark too.
Posted by: Bemildred | Nov 10 2023 19:03 utc | 96
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Front #Summary for 10 Nov 2023 by 19:54⚡️📌 Today is the 160th Day since Kiev launched its failed counteroffensive.
🔹In #Kherson Direction, at #Krynki, the AFU maintain a garrison, repelling our attacks, and also established supply logistics. From the field it is reported that at night they are dragging boats across the river with cables under the cover of anti-fluorescent cloaks. Our artillery continues to hit the identified boats, but this does not significantly change the situation.🔹In #Zaporozhye Direction, the AFU does not stop attacking, our army bravely holds the lines. Today, the heights northwest of #Verbovoye, have been retaken again. From #Rabotino, the enemy is rushing towards #Kopani and #Novoprokopovka, despite reports that part of the contingent has been sent to reinforce at #Avdeyevka.
🔹In #Donetsk Direction, on the northern #Avdeyevka flank, our army cleared the Tochmash SNT territory and is approaching #Stepovoye (#Petrovskoye) from both flanks, entering the rear of the enemy and started to force him out of the village. Kiev also confirms that ours have crossed the railway line, noting carefully operations. Small groups detect enemy positions and aim artillery before they move on the ground. On the southern flank, we managed to retake a few more positions and approached the southern outskirts of #Avdeyevka.
🔹In #Bakhmut Direction, our advance in #Kleshcheyevka is confirmed. Slightly we retake ground and fight for the heights. With a similar breakthrough at #Andreyevka, it would be a serious blow for Kiev, as these front were presented as an important achievement of the entire summer campaign.
🔹In #Svatovo Direction, our forces advanced in the area of #Makeyevka, the AFU commanders admit that the situation is difficult for them, talking about the arrival of our reserves.
https://t.me/sitreports/17785
Posted by: Down South | Nov 10 2023 19:17 utc | 97
All the centuries Russia has been dependent on its manpower to defend the realm. Now for the first time Russia is using its technology and not so much of its manpower to defend the realm. As it is Russian nukes, missiles, tanks and other stuff are better than what the West can deliver, or more battle effective and well as costing less. But now the West has forced Russia from its preferred massed armoured formations type of warfare into a new form of warfare with autonomous drones, tanks and artillery. Russia with its superior military industrial complex and unlimited natural resources is just surging ahead in the new world of autonomous drones, tanks and artillery. The West has neither the natural or human resources to match Russia in advances and especially quantity of new, capable weaponry.
This skirmish in Ukraine might well turn out to be the best thing ever to have happened to Russia, even the Russia GDP has now grown by like 5% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2023, surprising even the Kremlin. Russia is 81% homogeneous, with its ethnic minorities being even more homophobic than the majority Russian Orthodox population, meaning that this conflict in Ukraine has united the Russian population even more than before. While America can't get people to join its army, and has now resorted to advertisements featuring white Americans and no longer just minorities and the LGBT's, Russia has no problems with recruitment.
https://www.rt.com/russia/586931-russian-military-ranks-growth/
The longer this SMO lasts the stronger Russia becomes, the longer the SMO lasts the weaker the West becomes. Russia should keep this SMO going forever.
Posted by: gT | Nov 10 2023 19:27 utc | 98
I have the lowest possible respect for Van Der Liar.
Posted by: scepticalSOB | Nov 9 2023 16:22 utc | 15
Impossible, no level is low enough for that c***
As she has a special hatred for wolves I just wish her a night stroll in the woods with some roving wolves fed for a month on diet yogurt and viagra.
A room 101 thing but she deserves it, her shenanigan in the german defense and pfizer are faithful capo way... wolves are too good for her
Posted by: newbie | Nov 10 2023 20:29 utc | 99
The latest Ukranazi cope:
They didn't really ever launch a counteroffensive, it was all a psyops!
https://t.me/militarywave/6304
The 90000 dead cannon fodder and wiped out Western armour are all psyops too!
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 10 2023 12:27 utc | 75
So all this carnage, this was all for funsies, LOL?
Posted by: Feral Finster | Nov 10 2023 20:39 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/20426
Posted by: Down South | Nov 9 2023 14:40 utc | 1