Now that Russia wants Zelensky to remain in power
more than the Western hegemony does
there will be some interesting developments to come.

Posted by: librul | Nov 5 2023 14:14 utc | 3

I could be wrong, but I don’t think many know how many troops Ukraine has apart from a handful of people on both sides.
The numbers before the counter offensive were clearly wrong. Mythical figures as it turns out.
Ukraine, clearly had more troops than many people thought they did around the key areas. The Russians announced this week the Ukrainians have over 120k just on the Belarus border.
I think the numbers banded about from day 1 has been wrong and the Ukrainians had more troops that many telegram channels thought they had. Of course NATO troops will be making up some of the numbers.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Nov 5 2023 14:35 utc | 5

Military Summary has an interesting perspective on what’s going on in the Kiev regime.
The western countries thought Ukraine is fighting for their freedom and the west is supporting their freedom against Russia. In fact, it isn’t so. The model is actually Nato paying rent for Ukraine to fight Russia. If you don’t pay the rent, then you can’t use that asset.
Zelensky is trying to remove Zaluzhny, who has a better-than-decent chance of becoming president. Zelensky is also trying to create a system that he is an irredeemable asset, if there’s no Zelensky, there’s no Ukraine. And some military leaders have too much power that creates a threat to Zelensky, so Zelensky is trying to remove Syrsky and Zaluzhny.
Events:
5th November
-large group strikes with drones and missiles in the Dnipro region and airfields
-AFU, per RUMOD report has launched its first attack originating from the Krynky bridgehead
-RUAF bomb AFU concentrations opposite of Nova Kakhovka and Kakhovka
-RUAF managed to locate and strike AFU concentration in Zarychne (some kind of award event)
-In Rabotyne/Verbove area RUAF try to create situations with drones where evacuation teams and vehicles of wounded soldiers could be hit
-In Urozhaine area, RUAF has positions to cut the road running NW of Staramayorske
-It’s likely that RUAF intends to return control of Staramayorsk and Urozhaine to force AFU to redeploy stuff here. AFU has lot of gaps and holes in this area which RUAF uses as an advantage
-AFU drone managed to hit a demining tank west of Krasnogorovka (north of Avdeevka)
-RUAF intention to move AFU artillery further north-west of Avdeevka and remove possibility to support it
-RUAF has repelled AFU attacks north of Bakhmut (Orikhovo-Vasylivka) and Sporne/Krasnogorovka area, AFU has lack of forces in these areas which may be another area for offensive
-RUAF claims to have destroyed every bridge across the Oskil river
-A Nato/Ukraine training camp hit west of Lwow
6th November:
-RUAF managed to take some trenches west of Verbove
-RUAF bombardment focus NW of Verbove (W of Novofedirivka and Novopokrovka) which might be a focus of counter-attack to squeeze the Verbove salient
-AI controlled Lancet strike hit a Leopard tank for the first time
-RUAF managed to establish control further along the rail line in the forest, NE of Stepove
-RUAF is exploiting the lack of AFU forces between Andryivka and Kurdumyivka (Bakhmut direction) which redeployed some forces toward Kupyansk
-RUAF is even across the rail line, north of Andryivka, they might plan to return Andryivka in control
-RUAF managed to hit two tanks around west of Kleschevka
-RUAF made some small progress around Ivanivka-Yahidne (Kupyansk area)
-RUAF launched quick counter-strike against Dnipro airfield and managed to hit a NASAMS missile launcher and radar systems, and maybe an aircraft or two (RUMOD will report on it)

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 5 2023 14:52 utc | 7

Our sources from the OP reported that the Office of the President, through the SBU, is preparing suspicion of its ex-adviser. One of the sources believes that Zelensky is very vulnerable to any criticism from the lips of former officials/politicians of his team, and here Arestovich crossed the acceptable line.
Another of our sources believes that the suspicion is being prepared specifically for a political project, to shape Arestovich into the image of an oppositionist; these steps will not have real consequences.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/20355

Our sources from the Office of the President reported that Arestovich is a political project of Bankova, and all criminal cases are PR, which should create the image of an oppositionist from the former adviser to the OP.
On the sidelines, the framework within which Arestovich can criticize Zelensky is often discussed, while any criticism of Ermak is prohibited.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/20390

Posted by: Down South | Nov 5 2023 14:56 utc | 9

@Echo Chamber
120k? That’s insane. This war will drag on for years.

Posted by: bored | Nov 5 2023 14:57 utc | 11

I disagree about “hidden troops”. For at least a year (two thirds or more of the time back to the start!) I’ve seen people write about ex-Ukrainian resources and “elite” soldiers or whatever being held in reserve and they never end up showing up as anything real or significant.
120 thousand vacationing along a border away from the Russians? Okay, what’s their relevance supposed to be if true? Useless and plain dumb if real (very unlikely) and even more useless if false (very likely).
Might as well discuss the superiority of nazi armored trolley bins…
I’ve said “Ukraine” lost on day one but I’m actually a little bit wrong; “Ukraine” lost before they started, they lost the moment any kind of sensible patriotism got corrupted and manipulated into self-defeating aggressive and violent nazism. They lost the moment enough madmen (and madwomen) thought launching a war on Russia and their own internal neighbors of Russian ethnicity and their own intertwined history of relationships with Russia was in any way a good idea.
Anyway instead of mushroom-hunting armies one and half million dead ex-Ukrainians seems far more likely to me. Most but nowhere near all killed by the SMO, let’s say 90%, or maybe as little as 30% or 40% if one doesn’t attribute wounded dying away from the front as Russian kills.
Since I disagreed I’m also throwing something out there for other people to disagree with 🙂

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Nov 5 2023 15:04 utc | 13

120k? That’s insane. This war will drag on for years.

Nah. The Maerican economy doesn’t have ‘years’. Through their insane actions they have actually accelerated their collapse. Tick, tock.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Nov 5 2023 15:07 utc | 15

One thing for sure Zelensky is not going to go quiet into the night

Our sources from the OP said that the Biden Administration, through Sullivan, demanded that Ermak begin negotiations on a freeze in hostilities.
Zelensky’s statements that the United States and the EU are not calling on him to start peace negotiations with Russia are not true; the President simply wants to get his partners to fulfill their promises, and Ukraine is ready to continue to wage war.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/20383

Zelensky made another controversial statement: if the US does not provide financial support to Kiev, he suggested that Russia might attack a NATO member country
Ukrainian President Zelensky addressed the US Congress, urging them to maintain military aid to Ukraine. He warned lawmakers who were opposing a new aid package that the alternative could be a Russian attack on a NATO member country, which would necessitate the deployment of American troops.
He stated, “If Russia wipes us out, it might turn its aggression towards NATO countries, and you would have to send your sons and daughters there. Unfortunately, the cost would be much higher.”
Once again, the Ukrainian President, who is widely criticized, emphasized how cheap it is for the West to buy ordinary Ukrainians’ lives.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/72315

Posted by: Down South | Nov 5 2023 15:13 utc | 17

120 thousand vacationing along a border away from the Russians? Okay, what’s their relevance supposed to be if true? Useless and plain dumb if real (very unlikely) and even more useless if false (very likely).
Came out of Shigou’s mouth only when his week on the military summary channel.
Either way for me the Ukrainian numbers have always been low called to hide the number of NATO troops involved.
Probably Polish troops will be making up some of the 120k on the Belarus border.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Nov 5 2023 15:42 utc | 19

Before the counter offensive the figures were 90k around Bakhmut and 70k for the offensive in the South with 12 brigades in reserve.
No figures I can remember were given in the forest and Lyman and kupyansk direction. Some said 50k.
Just looking at the killed and wounded these were mythical figures. If the killed and wounded figures are true Ukraine clearly had more troops than were reported and without a shadow of doubt more troops than was reported on the US leaked documents.
As the shape of the battlefield changed recently as Russia went on the attack. They still had enough reserves to send to different areas.
None of the original reporting made any sense. Now we have Shoigu only this week claiming they have 120k on the Belarus border.
Make of it what you will. Simple arithmetic highlights for me Many people had the figures wrong. Only a handful of people on both sides who monitor this stuff will know the true figures in my opinion.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Nov 5 2023 15:55 utc | 21

Not to mention the tens of thousands you need to have just for logistics and support.
It’s a head scratcher for sure.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Nov 5 2023 15:58 utc | 23

They were supposed to have moved all their troops from the kherson region to support Bakhmut cauldron. After, Surovikin moved back behind the river.
That doesn’t seem to be the case.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Nov 5 2023 16:09 utc | 25

Ukraine Weekly Update – may be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-update-6b1

Posted by: Robert Hamilton Camp | Nov 5 2023 16:10 utc | 27

Even the pro-Ukrainian “journalists” understand the sky is falling
https://x.com/iaponomarenko/status/1720885948026650810?s=46&t=iQi7fB-06urmjYsPOJ0ITw

Posted by: Gengar | Nov 5 2023 16:12 utc | 29

Just isolating the South….
70k was the figure but killed and wounded is over 90k probably now over 100k ?????
They are still attacking down there On many fronts. Where did these men come from ?
Not to mention the ones being sent to Lyman and kupyansk direction and now Avdiivka and Kherson regions. Now the 120k on the Belarus border.
Either the figures were deliberately low balled to hide the number of NATO troops or the number of reserves they had were clearly wrong. It just doesn’t make sense if you believed the figures reported before the counter offensive. Or the figures within the US leaked documents ??

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Nov 5 2023 16:25 utc | 31

Anyway instead of mushroom-hunting armies one and half million dead ex-Ukrainians seems far more likely to me. Most but nowhere near all killed by the SMO, let’s say 90%, or maybe as little as 30% or 40% if one doesn’t attribute wounded dying away from the front as Russian kills.
Since I disagreed I’m also throwing something out there for other people to disagree with 🙂
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Nov 5 2023 15:04 utc | 7
I have been saying 400.000 (currently probably over 500.000) KIA for AFU and as many permanent disabled for months.
Until june 2023these are my best estimates
02/2022 03/2022 04/2022 05/2022 06/2022 07/2022 08/2022 09/2022 10/2022 11/2022 12/2022 01/2023 02/2023 03/2023 04/2023 05/2023 06/2023
Afu KIA 89600 34800 -2160 8880 2400 4960 18880 37264 22000 21600 55120 26240 1200 27920 2160 27920 16320
WIA irrecov. 89600 34800 -2160 8880 2400 4960 18880 37264 22000 21600 55120 26240 1200 27920 2160 27920 16320
plain WIA 358400 139200 -8640 35520 9600 19840 75520 149056 88000 86400 220480 104960 4800 111680 8640 111680 65280
Levée 0 400000 400000
AFU 700000 520800 451200 455520 437760 432960 423040 385280 710752 666752 623552 513312 460832 458432 402592 398272 742432
716800 278400 -17280 71040 19200 39680 151040 298112 176000 172800 440960 209920 9600 223360 17280 223360 130560
Numbers for regular army only (no borders, police, etc)

Posted by: newbie | Nov 5 2023 16:53 utc | 33

At this point, it’s a dilemma for the Russians whether to have the current group of Nazi gangsters running the Ukraine, or having a failed state on their southern border. The obvious solution of occupation and rebuilding has a lot to be said against it. But with the withdrawal of NATO (inevitable) there doesn’t seem to be a third option.

Posted by: jhill | Nov 5 2023 16:56 utc | 35

Ukrainian troops are shooting at foreign mercenaries, who are acting as barrier troops.
https://twitter.com/Ramy_Sawma/status/1721206466177044947

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 5 2023 17:04 utc | 37

I could be pulling these numbers out of my ass. Because I read so many telegram channels and watch so many videos and get confused.
But it easy enough check just go back to the US leaked documents and the figures reported from each area before the counter offensive.
Dima from military summary, Rybar and Weeb union gave some figures of accumulated Ukraine troops in each area including reserves before the counter offensives. So they got them from somewhere.
It just doesn’t add up ??
If the killed and wounded since June are in the correct ball park. Could be even more than reported.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Nov 5 2023 17:05 utc | 39

Posted by: jhill | Nov 5 2023 16:56 utc | 18
What’s wrong with having a failed state, possibly having cut access to the sea, with a population base unable to build a functional state in decade let alone an army.? 🤔

Posted by: Mario | Nov 5 2023 17:05 utc | 41

#4 unimperator.
6th November report? Do you have a time machine?

Posted by: scepticalSOB | Nov 5 2023 17:06 utc | 43

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Nov 5 2023 16:25 utc | 16
The Emil Kio strategy by Russia, an operation Mincemeat clone from the West. The internet’s ability to create an illusion of knowledge is easily exploitable by state and non-state actors.
Bottom line: the facts on the ground tend towards disproving Ukraine’s claims of casualties suffered and inflicted, whilst being more supportive of those of the Russians. Do both sides distort the truth, either by lying or by omission, yes, it’s a war after all, you make your opponent work for their intel supper.
The only thing a keyboard analyst can do is spot general discrepancies and trends, anything else is a pipe dream sold to gullible souls who are personally invested in having their predictions proved accurate. It’s not just porn that exploits feelings of inadequacy and powerlessness in people’s lives.

Posted by: Milites | Nov 5 2023 17:12 utc | 45

Western aid has enabled Ukraine to mobilize its otherwise mediocre human resources to an impossible scale: men that in any other war would be normally employed making tanks or shells can be sent to the frontline as the West supplies everything necessary.
That said if they had years to go rest assured there would not be any peace feelers, the wheels must be starting to come off either on the western resources or ukrainian manpower side for that to be happening. The West would happily support a “stalemate” for years as long as it kept killing russians.

Posted by: Satepestage | Nov 5 2023 17:23 utc | 47

Sunny Runny Burger (7) commented:
“I’ve said “Ukraine” lost on day one but I’m actually a little bit wrong; “Ukraine” lost before they started, …”
I’d go several steps further than that. IMO Ukraine actually lost way back in 2014 when the government installed in Kiev by the US / NATO engineered coup stated attacking ethnic Russians within Ukraine’s borders. The only thing that surprised me was the length of time The Kremlin’s patience held.

Posted by: Arthur Foxake | Nov 5 2023 17:24 utc | 49

Ukrainian troops are shooting at foreign mercenaries, who are acting as barrier troops.
https://twitter.com/Ramy_Sawma/status/1721206466177044947
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 5 2023 17:04 utc | 19
TEXAS believes they were killed by a Russian SRG wearing yellow stripes to infiltrate..
I repost John Helmer’s very interesting update on the Ukie GRID…
https://johnhelmer.net/the-new-electric-war-campaign-how-the-russian-army-will-select-the-ukrainian-targets/
In the coming winter phase of the Russian offensive in the Ukraine, the electric war will be run quite differently from the way the first electric war was directed last winter.
The impact on the Ukrainian grid and on the country’s and military’s capacities to cope will be more destructive than a year ago. The reason for this, Ukrainian sources have been saying publicly and Russian military assessments now confirm, is that most of the money which the US, the European Union, and the World Bank have provided Kiev officials over the past nine months to repair, reconstruct, and prepare the country’s power generating and distribution system for the coming winter has been stolen.
US and NATO command and control centres inside the country for running the war will be operating in the dark, not only because of the precision of the Russian missiles and drone operations, but because of the corruption of the Ukrainians
battlefield evidence indicates the new electric war has begun. From October 28 to November 3, 2023, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out fifteen group strikes with precision weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles on warehouses of rocket and artillery weapons, places of storage of weapons and military equipment, as well as temporary locations of Ukrainian servicemen, nationalists and foreign mercenaries. As a result of the strikes, hangars for preparing Ukrainian aircraft for takeoff, production sites for unmanned aerial vehicles and unmanned boats, groups of foreign instructors and mercenaries were destroyed.”
“Apparently, a significant part of Ukraine’s generating capacity was irretrievably lost during the attacks and cannot be restored.
A US industrial maintenance administrator warns that “if this is the Ukrainian plan to protect and preserve electrical generation capacity, it’s already failed. The Russians have been targeting fuel infrastructure for months and will be sure to interdict attempts at refueling. They will also pick up the heat signatures of these co-generation units and strike them accordingly.”
Another US industry source says there is resistance to sending US electrical equipment to the Ukraine. “As we move into 2024, I can’t count on American politicians willing to shovel electrical gear into the Ukraine. If they do, prices will rise and availability will go down. I do not believe current inventories have a enough of a surplus to send, especially given adverse weather events and the demands of the so-called green energy projects. Regardless, the word is now out — sending gear and/or funds to the Ukrainians is pissing them both against a wall.”
Expert papers recently released on the state of the US electricity sector suggest that the recovery in the supply chain and reduction of prices since the disruptions of the coronavirus pandemic years is fragile, uncertain, and vulnerable to war risks, not only in Europe but also in the Middle East and Asia. The Heritage Foundation in Washington, a supporter of war against Russia and China, warns that “a rapidly growing shortage of transformers…is threatening the nation’s ability to remain a leader in innovation and is undermining long-term economic security…Despite a heavy reliance on HV [high voltage] transformers, the U.S. has very slim manufacturing capabilities. To meet demand, roughly 85 percent!! of these HV transformers are imported from South Korea and Germany—however, China is seizing market share and forcing out competition…[then there are] the damaging security implications of secret ‘back doors’ planted within the transformers. If engaged, China or Russia could monitor and disable transformers, thus rendering the NATO grid useless.”
Large power transformers, such as those used by utilities, can still be more than a year out. All gear is still expensive and certain equipment, such as protection relays, have long lead times. It’s easy to see that the US power grid is a handful of transformer failures away from collapse.”
Ukrainian electricity sector managers understand that the capacity of the US ally to continue supporting the sector is close to exhausted now. They also understand what the Russian winter offensive is likely to do. According to a new report from the semi-official Moscow analysis medium Vzglyad, the Ukrainians have decided to capitulate by stealing.
The problem is that the money for the repair of the energy infrastructure went to everything except the repair of this infrastructure. “In fact, they have not repaired anything,”
In his view, Russia intentionally stopped attacks across all of the Ukrainian energy facilities. “The strategy now is to look at where the most vulnerable infrastructure facilities are at the beginning of the heating season and hit them point-by-point. In this way, it is possible to cause a cascade of shutdowns when all the other units in the system will be unable to take on the extra load of units going down,” Yushkov believes.
It appears that the house of cards is now collapsing…..
INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Nov 5 2023 17:26 utc | 51

I think the numbers banded about from day 1 has been wrong and the Ukrainians had more troops that many telegram channels thought they had. Of course NATO troops will be making up some of the numbers.
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Nov 5 2023 14:35 utc | 3
I have been arguing this for some time. In 2022 at the time the war started Wiki (unreliable I know) claimed the UAF had a c 250k standing army plus the same in reserve. Now my memory is not what it was, but if you read wiki now it seems they had 450K reserves. Hmm… If you add up the actual formations that existed at that time you do get to 700K, including all troops including LOC and training formations etc. Then you have para militaries like border guards, the armed police and various Azov thugs etc. Wiki also claims that c 100K volunteers were inducted immediately after the Russian invasion began. Not to mention hundreds of thousands of more or less unwilling conscripts. Plus foreign mercs. The manpower available to the UAF since Feb 2022 has been well in excess of a million, maybe approaching 1.5M.
The fact that it is now running out of manpower points to the level of losses they have taken.
However, and this is where I have been called a concern troll for holding this opinion by at least one less than polite bar fly who used to drink here, I think the UAF is still an undefeated and sizeable and veteran army. It will lose but has not lost yet, and there will be a good deal of fighting and dying before it does. My prediction though is well before this time next year. This is not a stalemate, this is the end game.

Posted by: marcjf | Nov 5 2023 17:49 utc | 53

The Russians were out numbered 4-1 minimum when the war started, they are slowly knocking that number down.

Posted by: OohCanada | Nov 5 2023 17:53 utc | 55

I have recently seen a few commenters begin to take a more realistic look at deployed troop numbers on the Russian side, their configuration, and what this can say about Russia’s future plans for the SMO. I am not referring here to doomer posters like the shadowspammer and Julian who always see a dark cloud inside any silver lining, but those taking a realistic look at how things have developed over the past 20 months, what the sociopolitical situation is in Ukraine, and the implications for a resolution of the conflict that could be acceptable for Russia.
Current configuration of Russian forces suggests they will continue to pursue a strategy of attrition over the next several months while taking the Avdeevka fortified town. There has been no indication that Russia intends to do a general mobilization or change the status of the SMO. It is generally agreed that concentrations of troops and hardware necessary to make large advances on the ground are vulnerable to Ukrainian drones and long range artillery, and no such advances are expected while Ukraine retains the ability to disrupt force concentrations. I have guessed that Russia may try to reach the Oskil River and the string of fortified towns along it and maybe even try to retake Izum while capturing Avdeevka and straightening the front in Zaporizhia and pushing the UAF back to the right bank of the Dnipr in Kherson. I believe there are sufficient troops and reserves currently deployed to do these things, but there are no indications that Russia intends to do significantly more than this on the ground.
The largest urban area captured by Russia to date is Mariupol, and this came at a significant cost in terms of the level of destruction required to accomplish this. The Azovstal plant was completely ruined, although the port infrastructure was largely spared. It appears that the Avdeevka coke plant will be destroyed in the current operation there.
For comparison: Mariupol: pop 434k, approx urban area 117sqkm. Odessa: pop 1.0m, approx urban area 283 sqkm. Kharkov: pop 1.42m, approx urban area 278 sqkm. Dnipro: pop 970k approx urban area 248sqkm. Kiev pop 3.5m approx urban area 420 sqkm.
There are plenty of pictures online of the state of Kiev and other urban centers following WWII and the level of destruction required to capture them.
There is some evidence that Ukraine has nearly exhausted its supply of ready reserve forces, and efforts to mobilize large numbers of additional troops have become increasingly problematic. Hardware and ammunition to mount any new large scale offensive is not and will not be available as long as the current level of conflict continues – all is needed to simply maintain the status quo. The level of external funding has already passed its maximum and will likely continue its downward trend. This will increase the stress on the Ukrainian state and its ability to continue to function.
Given the above I see no evidence that Russia intends to capture large amounts of additional territory or any of the major urban centers including Odessa. Even if the Ukrainian army collapses along the current front Russia simply does not have forces in place to make large advances and hold the captured territory. Yet there are suggestions that the end game will materialize during 2024. If so then how can Russia meet the objectives set out by the leadership for the SMO in the most advantageous way?
Ukrainian society has been deeply wounded by the conflict with very large numbers of killed and wounded, and a significant level of damage to their industrial capacity has been inflicted by Russia. The population will not quickly forgive Russia for this wounding, and for Russia to try and directly administer a post conflict Ukraine would be a fraught proposition. They will have their hands full with rebuilding and integrating the new Russian territories. Neither can I see any of the remaining Ukrainian oblasts voting to join Russia following a settlement – the conflict has been too traumatic for a majority to support this, and for this reason it would be a mistake for Russia to take even the most (formerly) pro-Russian areas by force.
I believe it behooves Russia to make a settlement with an economically viable (but not hostile) state. A failed state could be exploited by Russia’s enemies and would be a source of endless trouble. If Russia can defeat the Ukrainian army along the existing front leading to a collapse of the current Ukrainian state then it will have a chance to shape a reconstituted Ukraine in ways that can accomplish the primary SMO objectives.
The main difficulties with the above scenario that I see are 1) the west must abandon completely their ‘Ukrainian project’, and therefore a way must be found for this to happen without a public admission of defeat (by the west); 2) the political and administrative structures in Ukraine are so thoroughly and deeply corrupt that they are unable to effectively rebuild a post conflict Ukraine. The second problem I see as the most difficult one to navigate.
Ukraine lost its battle to become a prosperous independent state in the couple of decades following independence when it abandoned any serious attempt to develop in partnership with the Russian Federation and instead prostituted itself to the west as an anti-Russian proxy in return for maintenance of a corrupt ruling class. The war was not lost in February 2022, but many years before with the final nail driven in 2014. However, unlike Armenia or the Baltics, Ukraine still has the land, resources, and geographical position to become a viable and prosperous state without requiring, and eternally dependent upon, endless handouts from external sources.
I used to think that Russia would eventually, and should necessarily, capture Odessa at a minimum. Now I have come to believe that this is not required for Russia to achieve its objectives, and that there are other more potentially advantageous outcomes available – especially when looking down the road. On the other hand I don’t see any incentive for Russia to settle for anything less than what they envision as acceptable terms – they are prepared to fight until they see an opportunity present itself.

Posted by: the pessimist | Nov 5 2023 18:24 utc | 57

My prediction though is well before this time next year. This is not a stalemate, this is the end game.
Posted by: marcjf | Nov 5 2023 17:49 utc | 27
Can’t agree, if the SMO stays on slow burn it gives time for the AFU to throw another million+ meat and no sooner than 2025 to kill or maim then all.
Pay upfront and end by Xmas or 2025, no sooner

Posted by: Newbie | Nov 5 2023 19:03 utc | 59

they are prepared to fight until they see an opportunity present itself.
Posted by: the pessimist | Nov 5 2023 18:24 utc | 29
I hope they are making the opportunity, and testing to confirm it’s feasible

Posted by: Newbie | Nov 5 2023 19:06 utc | 61

I bet a significant number of 404 civilians will die of cold and malnutrition caused deaths. No western money for guns also means no western money for groceries. Surviving a winter of hardship is one thing… the second one is gonna take a much bigger toll. They may be sorta partying in Kiev but I bet it’s a miserable existence everywhere else. The easy trees for heat went down last year. Life huddled under 6 blankets sucks.

Posted by: comrade simba | Nov 5 2023 19:08 utc | 63

One reason for skepticism regarding all reports from Ukrainian government sources regarding the number of troops on hand, is that, one way or another, funds get allocated depending on those numbers.
And afaik it’s a long held principle of anyone who foots the bill for an army, that you better be assured of the their actual number.
Related to that is the practice of allowing those with connections to be assigned to the front, draw combat pay, collect ribbons and such, and yet still stay securely well behind the lines, even at times stationed at a post very close to ones home. A hoary joke during/after the Viet Nam War was for an officer to speak of their tour in Viet Nam by saying, “Well I didn’t go, but my file did”.
I guess a big question mark could be applied to the number of the AFU facing off against the forces of Belarus, right across the border. Arguably the military of Belarus has long been doing a great service just by freezing in place a large force of the Ukrainian military, and visa versa. But if the AFU HQ in Kiev was overrun by those with influence avoiding combat, I guess the AFU headquarters of the force facing Belarus is also reasonably safe, at least for now. And it’s almost certainly infinitely more comfortable than the trenches near the front lines facing Russian forces.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Nov 5 2023 19:11 utc | 65

@ pessimist, §29:
After what Odessa has suffered at the hands of the Ukronazis, I cannot see Russian-speaking Odessa agreeing to remain part of whatever the Ukraine might become.
Nor will Russia risk a Black Sea port opposite Crimea falling into the hands of opportunists again.

Posted by: John Marks | Nov 5 2023 19:13 utc | 67

the pessimist | Nov 5 2023 18:24 utc | 29
A good overall summary of the situation. The only thing I would say is that as the Ukraine forces reach a certain level of attrition, Russia is likely to push its main defence lines out to the borders of the oblasts that are now part of Russia. Possibly with the exception of Kherson right bank for some time though it too will at some point be recovered by Russia.
In the first months of the second phase, Russia stated goal was to liberate all of the two Donbass regions to their administrative borders.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 5 2023 19:32 utc | 69

I bet a significant number of 404 civilians will die of cold and malnutrition caused deaths. No western money for guns also means no western money for groceries. Surviving a winter of hardship is one thing… the second one is gonna take a much bigger toll. They may be sorta partying in Kiev but I bet it’s a miserable existence everywhere else. The easy trees for heat went down last year. Life huddled under 6 blankets sucks.
Posted by: comrade simba | Nov 5 2023 19:08 utc | 32
Or… They get on the train… and emigrate to the warmth of Poland, Lithuania, Belarus, Russia, Latvia, Estonia…. perhaps spend the winter in Cyprus…
Alex Christoforo often broadcasts from Cyprus… it’s a very nice place…
INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Nov 5 2023 20:06 utc | 71

Posted by: Newbie | Nov 5 2023 19:03 utc | 30
Would be interested what in your opinion would constitute to the “end of SMO”. Even taking Kiev would not end it, in fact, Nato is counting on that Russia would make mad dashes to grab territory. They will just continue it from bit further west.
That is why slow burn works for Russia, IMO, as long as they have the advantage of interdicting and destroying Nato artillery. The fact is Nato needs to use the long route to ship all that stuff. If RUAF disrupts the electricity network further, started from last winter, and hits rains (even sometime) it will make Nato job much harder and easier for RUAF.

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 5 2023 20:14 utc | 73

FWIW, NBC just released a 45 minute interview with Zelensky:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/zelenskyy-ukraine-russia-war-not-stalemate-rcna123670
I’ve only managed to listen to it for 15 minutes so far, this guy is simply unbearable and obviously living in his own fantasy world…

Posted by: Zet | Nov 5 2023 20:17 utc | 75

Free Tartarstan!

Posted by: sln2002 | Nov 5 2023 20:18 utc | 77

When did the Ukraine lose? 1991, when they embraced the delusion of a better life in “The Garden” and among “The Exceptionals”. Rather than build on what they had, they shaped all of their dreams and expectations around being welcomed into “The Garden”. Once they cut themselves loose from the Soviet Union they would be eagerly adopted into the lands of shining cities on hills and all of their wants and needs catered to. Once freed from their Soviet past they’d be living on Easy Street.
They were easily convinced to hate everything Soviet, and that included themselves because they were Soviets. In fact, the Ukraine, in its entirety, is a Soviet creation, so so-called Ukrainian nationalists schizophrenically hated the very nation they fanatically promoted (in case you wondered why they don’t care how many Ukrainians perish in a meat grinder). They went from a nation where 100% of the households had potable running water to one where only 83% did by the time of Maidan. Why maintain the nation’s infrastructure when it was all of hated Soviet origin? The Soviets did nothing good, so what is the point to fixing Soviet plumbing when it wears out or is damaged? When they would finally be taken under the wing of Europe then all of that old Soviet stuff would be thrown out and replaced with gleaming perfection. Thereafter their plumbing would be solid gold, so why waste any effort maintaining old Soviet plumbing?
And of course, with slovenly and infantile neglect the Soviet infrastructure of the Ukraine deteriorated to match what the deluded Ukrainians expected Soviet infrastructure to be like.
Basically, the Ukraine has been in a kind of limbo since 1991, coasting off the efforts and momentum of their grandparents while their nation and themselves slowly turned to shit. While the same delusions gripped the Russians in the early 1990s, they were able to pull themselves out of the gutter and grow up a little, while the Ukrainians continued to wallow in their own shit. The Ukraine was a beaten nation in 1991 and it never stood up to be beaten again except in their delusions. A nation of infants wallowing in their own shit cannot beat a nation that is standing for itself.
I’ve posted it before, but in case you wanted to know what those delusions looked like from the inside here is a propaganda music video deliberately targeting Ukrainians.

Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 5 2023 20:26 utc | 79

the pessimist @29: “The population will not quickly forgive Russia for this wounding…”
The US “wounded” Germany and Japan pretty badly last century, and those two are the most obsequious servants of the Empire these days. Being party to taking out the Nazi trash tends to make you into a superhero from the common man’s perspective. I doubt Russia will have any problems with the normal civilian population in the Ukraine. That is not to say there won’t be any US-backed terror cells working in the region, but the regular population will quickly figure out who misused and abused them the most during the war.

Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 5 2023 20:48 utc | 81

Posted by: the pessimist | Nov 5 2023 18:24 utc | 29
That is a very realistic assessment and one with correct conclusions without having to rely on internet bloggers or the info we are allowed to see/consume.
It will take a long time before it gets somewhere, wishful thinking notwithstanding, but the main point is that if Russia can economically and societally sustain this conflict with NATO longterm we shall see them victorious at the end. Probably one or two more years.

Posted by: alek_a | Nov 5 2023 20:49 utc | 83

@John Marks | Nov 5 2023 19:13 utc | 34
While I agree with your sentiments regarding Odessa I don’t believe that a a military effort to capture it is in the cards. More than twice the size and population of Mariupol – it would take an army the same size as what Russia already has deployed and Ukraine would fight for it. Mariupol was completely cut off and surrounded and the fight was bloody and destructive. To surround Odessa would be a huge project – costly and lengthy as Russia would need to cross the Dnipr, take Nikolaev, and sweep around to the west to the coast, and all the while Ukraine and its partners would be preparing a defense. Russia already tried moving toward Nikolaev a year ago and gave it up. Yes, there are many sympathetic to Russia in this region, but I believe there may be ways to solve the security issues – perhaps with a joint administration of the coastal ports and a more federalized governmental system for Ukraine (as was envisioned by Minsk) that could assuage the local population. Destroying the concentration of power in Kiev could allow the regions to free themselves from control by corrupt central authorities.
@William Gruff | Nov 5 2023 20:26 utc | 40 – I think I said that above. This video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hgeZilgRCU
is a good historical summary – interviews with some key participants.

Posted by: the pessimist | Nov 5 2023 20:56 utc | 85

@William Gruff | Nov 5 2023 20:48 utc | 41
This conflict is a fraternal one, and while some will be willing to forgive many will not, not easily, not soon – at least this is what I see from the people I know. Of course we can’t yet see the conditions under which a settlement will occur and how blame will be apportioned. The less vindictive and destructive the path to settlement is then the easier it will be to heal wounds.

Posted by: the pessimist | Nov 5 2023 21:08 utc | 87

Zet@38…..Zelly was saying if the ‘west’ doesn’t give him what he wants, he’s really going to start the war.
On a side note, reports have several high ranking NATO officers joining Bandera while they were at the BBQ ceremony.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Nov 5 2023 21:09 utc | 89

Zelensky is losing it.

NBC: Do you ever feel defeated?
Zelensky: I have a lot of power.
We are not ready to give our freedom to this F*** terrorist Putin.
https://twitter.com/AXChristoforou/status/1721215181546520611

At this point Russia should do everything possible to make sure he stays in office for as long as possible.

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 5 2023 21:23 utc | 91

Posted by: the pessimist | Nov 5 2023 18:24 utc | 29
Excellent post. Would only say at the end, that “wanting Odessa” is very far from being able to take it. The Russians can’t even take Kherson! So, people talking about Odessa are just letting “want” get confused with “is”.
Furthermore, there’s zero impression that Russians are making any serious moves to break through Ukranian lines and make major advances. Where is the buildup of forces for this kind of a push? There’s a huge difference between taking a vulnerable salient like Bakhmut or Adviika. Or stopping the Ukrainian counteroffensive and actually going on the offensive yourself.

Posted by: Anonymous | Nov 5 2023 21:25 utc | 93

Posted by: the pessimist | Nov 5 2023 18:24 utc | 29
That is a very objective analysis.
I believe that the dilemma for Russia is that as long as Ukraine is propped up by western money printing of dollars, along with whatever leftover weapons are still in stock, they are not an entity to be negotiating with. We must search for stronger words than “agreement incapable.” The current entity known as Ukraine is akin to an incapacitated or mentally retarded adult, who is not only “agreement incapable” but ought to be legally recognized as unfit to make decisions for themselves. A guardian needs to be court-appointed to stand in and make decisions in the best interest of the incapacitated party.
Similar to my analogy of a mentally retarded adult, a neutral guardian would need to be appointed to negotiate for Kiev. Perhaps China, in a perfect world, could play such a role, or the Swiss, if they hadn’t flushed their historic role down the toilet along with a rather large load. Actually some place like Africa or South America would be the most likely continent to find a truly neutral 3rd country to act as Kiev’s guardian.
As it appears that no such neutral party will step up, due to the empires’ incessant bullying, bribery, and diplomatic coercion, Moscow really has no choice but to continue with the SMO until either the current Kiev puppet regime is overthrown by its’ own people (unlikely) or the flow of weapons and funny money stops due to extenuating circumstances (more likely.)
A third option for Russia would be to finally impose costs on the West besides economic ones, as a response to NATO essentially running the war on the incapacitated clown regime’s behalf. Taking out some Western drones, bombing Al-Tanf to the point where it is no longer inhabitable (make it a gray zone like the rubble in Zaporozhye) or other direct military action would probably do the job, but for incomprehensible reasons, Russia is too risk-averse to do the obvious.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Nov 5 2023 21:30 utc | 95

Would be interested what in your opinion would constitute to the “end of SMO”.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 5 2023 20:14 utc | 37
As I mentioned in the two scenarios the SMO ends only with the total collapse of the AFU (only level it can be trusted as we’ve seen)
If it is now (and Ukraine still keeps military able population) conditions for internal armed forces are still important or we could be in another war in some years.
Also AFO will get a Nuremberg.
If it is only after slaughtering all able bodied Ukrainian males (2025) it’s just keeping nato out.
In both cases to leave more than a nominal shell for the western debt, and particularly with EU a restoration of status quo ante. Russia just wanted to be an energetic and military partner of the EU. If the EU stays an hostile vassal to the US… maybe this is just the start.

Posted by: Newbie | Nov 5 2023 21:31 utc | 97

Furthermore, there’s zero impression that Russians are making any serious moves to break through Ukranian lines and make major advances. Where is the buildup of forces for this kind of a push? There’s a huge difference between taking a vulnerable salient like Bakhmut or Adviika. Or stopping the Ukrainian counteroffensive and actually going on the offensive yourself.
Posted by: Anonymous | Nov 5 2023 21:25 utc | 47
Forces cannot be visible, and no breakthroughs can be had before a general collapse by exhausting all AFU reserves and assuring AD exhaustion

Posted by: Newbie | Nov 5 2023 21:33 utc | 99