The U.S. has recently moved way too many troops to the Middle East to be of peaceful purpose or to simply deter others from action.
Who does it intend to fight?
Arms Airlift to Israel, Bombers in Jordan, Two Carriers: U.S. Deploying More Forces to Mideast – Haaretz
Last week, the United States deployed the aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford and its strike group to the eastern Mediterranean. The USS Ford carries about 80 combat aircraft, electronic warfare and intelligence planes. It is accompanied by five advanced missile-guided ships, armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles capable of hitting targets inside Iran. According to satellite images, the USS Ford is about 180 kilometers south-west of Cyprus. P-8 maritime reconnaissance aircraft with anti-submarine, anti-ship capabilities are patrolling around the group.
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Over the weekend, a second carrier strike group, led by the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, was dispatched to the Eastern Mediterranean and is due to arrive later this month.
Each carrier strike group also includes one or two submarines. Next to various support planes each carrier has a ‘wing’ of fighter planes consisting of four squadrons with 12 fighter jets each.
There is more …
Since the Hamas attack on October 7, the U.S. has dispatched a large number of jets to the Middle East in order to “bolster the U.S. defense posture,” as the U.S Central Command has put it.
A squadron of U.S. F-15E Strike Eagle bombers based in Britain was deployed over the weekend at the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base east of the Jordanian capital of Amman. Another squadron of A-10 attack aircraft has also been deployed there.
An impressive airlift to Israel should be added to this list. According to online aviation tracking websites, at least 11 U.S. C-17 heavy-transport aircraft landed over the past 10 days at Israel’s Ben Gurion airport and Israeli Air Force’s Nevatim base.
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In addition to fighter and transport aircraft, two Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft belonging to the U.S. and British air forces have been operating off the coast of Israel in recent days.
Each regular Air-Force squadron has 24 fighter planes.
That’s not all yet …
Amichai Stein @AmichaiStein1 – 15:39 UTC · Oct 16, 2023
WSJ: US military has selected roughly 2,000 troops to prepare for a potential deployment to support Israel in missions like advising and medical support. They aren’t intended to serve in a combat role and no infantry have been put on prepare-to-deploy order.
The above troops are probably not really relevant unless they come under fire and get killed. But the following ones are real combat ground forces and not just support:
OSINTdefender @sentdefender – 15:59 UTC · Oct 16, 2023
According to multiple U.S. Defense Officials, the the Bataan Amphibious-Ready Group consisting of the USS Bataan (LHD-5) and USS Carter Hall (LSD-50) as well as roughly 2,500 Marines with the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit are now en-route towards the Eastern Mediterranean from the Arabian Sea, where she will link back up with the USS Mesa Verde (LPD-19) who has Finished her “Mid-Deployment Repair Period” in Spain early and is already steaming across the Mediterranean.
There are also several thousand U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria and on several bases in Turkey and in various Gulf countries.
I agree with Will Schryver:
Will Schryver @imetatronink – 17:10 UTC · Oct 16, 2023
So … a large amphibious assault flotilla will join the two carrier battle groups assembling in the eastern Mediterranean. Many believe this is just “power-projection posturing”. I find that explanation deficient.
This is a war fleet. And Hamas is NOT its target.
Hamas isn’t the target.
On Sunday, in a stilted 60 Minutes interview, President Joe Biden pointed north:
Scott Pelley: Would you support Israeli occupation of Gaza at this point?
President Biden: I think it’d be a big mistake. Look, what happened in Gaza, in my view, is Hamas and the extreme elements of Hamas don’t represent all the Palestinian people. And I think that…It would be a mistake to…for Israel to occupy…Gaza again. We…but going in but taking out the extremists the Hezbollah is up north but Hamas down south. Is a necessary requirement.
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Scott Pelley: And you believe Israel would pursue [the two state solution] that after what’s occurred–President Biden: Not now. Not now. Not now, but– but I think Israel understands that a significant portion of Palestinian people do not share the views of Hamas and Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a powerful Islamist militia to Israel’s north which is armed and trained by Iran. Iran also supports Hamas.
Scott Pelley: There’s limited fighting already on the northern Israeli border, and I wonder what is your message to Hezbollah and its backer, Iran?
President Biden: Don’t. Don’t, don’t, don’t.
Scott Pelley: Don’t come across the border? Don’t escalate this war?
President Biden: That’s right.
If attacked Hizbullah, with 100,000 missiles, would destroy Israel. I therefore do not believe that Hizbullah in Lebanon is the real operational target Biden has in mind.
Hizbullah can not be deterred from attacking Israel. If it wants and needs to it will inevitably do so, and do so successfully. It has hidden its forces and weapons either underground or within the population of Beirut and southern Lebanon. Bombing them does not make sense. There is also the fact that the last U.S. intervention in Lebanon infamously ended with lots of dead Marines and an embarrassing retreat from the country. I do not think that the U.S. wants to repeat that experience.
Iran, another potential target, is too difficult to attack. It can effectively retaliate over a large area causing huge damage to any U.S. installation in the Middle East. It could also hike oil prices at a time when the Biden administration is urgently trying to lower them.
That is why I believe that the real aim of this build-up is to finally ‘regime change’ Syria and to kick out the Russian forces who are there to support its government.
Israel Radar @IsraelRadar_com – 17:39 UTC · Oct 9, 2023
Israeli warning to Hezbollah: IDF will destroy Damascus, target Syrian President Assad if Hezbollah joins war; US warships will support Israel in war. Message relayed via France (@ynetalerts)
Israel Radar @IsraelRadar_com – Oct 9
IDF instructs Israelis to prepare for 3-day stay in bomb shelters/secure rooms, ensure supply of food, water, battery-run devices in case power is down. This is a clear indication of imminent escalation into larger war.
The recent Israeli bombing attacks on the airports of Aleppo and Damascus, disabling both of them, point into this direction.
The neo-conservative lunatics in the White House may well think that they now have a chance to eliminate Russia’s presence in the Middle East.
They will think of this as a revenge for their loss of the the war in Ukraine. They also believe that it will prevent, or compensate for, their geopolitical defeat in Gaza.
Russia is undoubtedly prepared for that. Still, its contingent in Syria is too small. A combined attack by all U.S. forces in the area, more than 150 airplanes, would certainly defeat it.
The question then will be: “What’s next?”
But I for one do not dare to answer it.