Ukraine's Sudden High Air Losses Likely Caused By New Russian Missiles
I am not sure how valid this is but I am sure it is relevant:
Victor vicktop55 @vicktop55 - 16:58 UTC · Oct 24, 2023Military expert Vladislav Shurygin: The Pentagon has become sharply concerned about the suddenly increased effectiveness of the Russian Aerospace Forces.
In two weeks, the Russians staged a real massacre in the Ukrainian sky. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost at least 10 of their aircraft (according to other sources, 14).
Moreover, all of them were shot down far from the front line and outside the radius of Russian air defense systems, as well as outside the standard radius of Russian fighter missiles. Those pilots who were able to eject reported that until the moment their planes were hit, they did not receive warning information about the attack from the appropriate warning systems.
The Americans believe that the Russian Aerospace Forces have acquired new missiles capable of not only hitting targets at a great distance, but also, after launch, independently pursuing a target without illuminating it from the aircraft’s radar, using a radio signature to guide it (the target).
Now Americans carefully check this information and consider it critically important. Since, if it is confirmed, it means that the Russians have acquired a weapon that will neutralize all the advertised advantages of their new main fighter, the F-35.
Vladislav Shurygin is indeed a Russian 'military expert' who has had various appearances on Russian talk shows.
The claim that there is 'a real massacre in the Ukrainian sky' is valid if the recent daily reports of the Russian Ministry of Defense are near to reality. I for one believe they are.
The typical Ukrainian air-force loss rate over the first three quarters of this year was one to three air planes or helicopters per week.
Since the mid of October the Russian daily reports claimed, according to my notes, the shot down of:
- 17 Ukrainian Mig-29 fighter aircraft
- 2 Ukrainian SU-24 tactical bombers
- 3 Ukrainian SU-25 close air support jets
- 1 Ukrainian L-39 fighter jet trainer
- 3 MI-8 transport helicopters
That is a total of 26 air assets over just 9 days!
If this is even near to the truth it is a catastrophic loss rate for the Ukrainian air force.
Is this even possible, one might ask. I believe it is. In October 2022, after a decades long development phase, media announced the first kill of a Ukrainian plane by a Russian R-37M long-range air-to-air missile:
The R-37 was developed from the R-33. For compatibility with aircraft that did not have the MiG-31's sophisticated radar, the semi-active seeker was replaced with a variant of the Agat 9B-1388 active seeker. Similarly, folding tail controls allow semi-conformal carriage on planes that are not as big as the MiG-31.Mid-body strakes enhance lift and hence increase range. According to Defence Today, the range depends on the flight profile, from 80 nautical miles (150 km) for a direct shot to 215 nautical miles (398 km) for a cruise glide profile.
The R-37M designation has since been used for a modernized variant of the missile, also known as RVV-BD (Raketa Vozduh-Vozduh Bolyshoy Dalnosty, or Long-Range Air-to-Air Missile). R-37M's range exceeds 200 km, and it is capable of hypersonic speeds (~Mach 5). It will be carried by the modernized MiG-31BM interceptors and Su-35S and Su-57 multirole fighters. It is not known whether the long-range air-to-air missile for the Su-57, designated as Izdeliye 810, is a derivative of the R-37M.
The missile can attack targets at altitudes of 15–25,000 meters, guided semi-actively or actively through the Agat 9B-1388 system.
The R-37M is claimed to have a maximum reach of 400 kilometer (~250 miles) and a hypersonic speed of Mach 5-6. It can be fired from safe airspace, outside of any Ukrainian air-defense range, deep into Ukraine.
In February 2023 Ukraine claimed to have found the wreckage of an R-37M.
Modified Ukrainian air-planes have been used to fire British Storm Shadow missiles (and the similar French SCALP-EG) at Russian targets. I haven't found any recent report of their successful use.
Ukrainian air assets have to fly near to the ground to survive.
The sudden increase in Ukrainian air losses points to the introduction, in large numbers, of a new variant of the R-37M with an updated targeting capability and/or an even longer range.
The U.S. plans to introduce F-16s fighter jets with 'long range' (100 kilometer, 60 miles) AIM-120D air-to-air missiles to Ukraine. They are clearly inferior to Russian air force capabilities and can only contribute to the losses.
Posted by b on October 25, 2023 at 6:09 UTC | Permalink
next page »Two thoughts here:
Those pilots who were able to eject reported that until the moment their planes were hit, they did not receive warning information about the attack from the appropriate warning systems.
I am not an expert, but I don't see how this is possilbe--if a Mach 5 (or even a Mach 1) missile hits you and you had no prior warning, how could you possibly have time to eject and survive?
Americans believe that the Russian Aerospace Forces have acquired new missiles capable of not only hitting targets at a great distance, but also, after launch, independently pursuing a target without illuminating it from the aircraft’s radar, using a radio signature to guide it (the target).
OK, this is theoretically possible, but why does the aircraft's radar not pick up the radio signature?
Another thought, but this one falls more under the intellectually curious rather than the skeptical pile: Russia is winning big time. Why would it want to reveal such technology now, when the final outcome is beyond all doubt, and therby tip off its adversaries as to its level of technological sophistication?
Posted by: Holey Moley | Oct 25 2023 6:40 utc | 2
Good news! That means additional war trophies will be added to Russia's war museum. I'm sure that will make for a great viewing.
Posted by: Escobar | Oct 25 2023 6:42 utc | 3
Holey Moley | Oct 25 2023 6:40 utc | 2
Most eject only once a missile has struck and badly damaged the aircraft, not before.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 25 2023 6:48 utc | 4
Thanks b, but other sources also propose that the increase is due to the use of the Su-57 (has stealth, will travel). So the Su-57 combined with the missile(s) you mention above will be terribly effective together.
Dear NATO armaments manufacturers: so long, it's been good to know ya.
Posted by: Sam (in Tiraspol) | Oct 25 2023 6:59 utc | 6
Antiaircraft missiles typically do not physically strike their targets. Instead, they are designed to explode near the target and damage the target with shrapnel.
This is why a pilot may be able to eject after the aircraft is damaged by a hypersonic missile.
Posted by: TimmyB | Oct 25 2023 7:07 utc | 7
Rostec handed over the next batch of new multifunctional Su-35S fighters to the Russian Aerospace Forces.4++ generation combat aircraft were manufactured at the aviation plant in Komsomolsk-on-Amur.
The vehicles have undergone a series of ground and flight tests in various operating modes and have already flown to their place of duty.Distinctive features of the aircraft are:
> a power plant based on new engines with a digital control system and controlled thrust vectoring, which can significantly improve the aircraft’s flight performance and maneuverability characteristics;
> long-range information and targeting systems;
> modern communication system and high-speed information exchange both between the aircraft and ground control points, and between aircraft;
> highly effective long-range air-to-air and air-to-surface guided weapons;
> highly effective electronic countermeasures and defense system.
https://t.me/geromanat/12767
More cutting-edge Su-57 jets enter Russia's military serviceRussia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) has handed a new batch of fifth-generation Su-57 fighters to the Russian Ministry of Defense. According to the UAC, the warplanes went through a full cycle of factory tests and were also tested in various modes.
The Su-57 multirole fighter, which was developed by the Sukhoi company, is designed to destroy all types of air, ground and surface targets. The aircraft has a supersonic cruising speed of 2,400 km per hour, intra-fuselage weapons, radio-absorbing coating and the latest set of on-board equipment.
https://t.me/sitreports/16976
Posted by: Down South | Oct 25 2023 7:08 utc | 8
Holey Moley | Oct 25 2023 6:40 utc | 2
"Why would it want to reveal such technology now, when the final outcome is beyond all doubt, and therby tip off its adversaries as to its level of technological sophistication?"
Perhaps to make its adversaries think twice to start new big adventures in the Middle East (or elsewhere)?
Posted by: Michael | Oct 25 2023 7:10 utc | 9
@vicktop55 I have that to be a solid account. Russian journalist based in Belarus.
Long range air to air missiles with passive guidance/seeking... very likely. Russia is far in advance of the west in these areas.
I read that post earlier today. I had noticed the lack of news on storm shadow leakers or strikes at soft targets. Some on twitter put that down to lack of missiles. The great increase in Ukraine/nato aircraft downed far from the frontlines gives a much better reason for lack of storm shadow strikes.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 25 2023 7:12 utc | 10
"I have that to be a solid account".... should have read 'I have found that to be a solid account'.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 25 2023 7:17 utc | 12
More and more North Korea seems to have been sane all the time. They have experience with the USA, and realize that USA is an enemy to be taken seriously, dead seriously.
It is time to change the world order.
So much should be clear to anyone.
Posted by: g wiltek | Oct 25 2023 7:20 utc | 13
The US is no longer sending the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group to the Eastern Mediterranean, but rather to the 'Central Command area of responsibility' which includes the Red Sea and Persian Gulf. This followed attacks on US forces in Syria and Iraq who were fired on by Iranian-backed militias. The US wishes to avoid backing its forces on the ground, especially if they are taken hostage by rebel militias. They don't want a US ground war. There is also some evidence from remarks by US officials that they may be considering withdrawing US ground forces from Iraq, Jordan and Syria to avoid them being overwhelmed and taken hostage. According to John Helmer at Dances With Bears this signals an acknowledgement by the US of the vulnerability of US carrier groups to Russian Kinzhal missile attacks from the Black Sea. The Eisenhower Carrier Group moved to the Persian Gulf would be less of a target for the Kinzhal missiles which travel at Mach 8 and possess sophisticated targeting capabilities. They are virtually unstoppable. The US is extremely worried about the missile defense vulnerabilities of its naval forces. But the US is definitely itching for a war and I'm guessing long range ballistic missiles against Iran and, if necessary, Russia.
See also here
Posted by: Damien | Oct 25 2023 7:25 utc | 14
A few days ago a barfly posted a comment which referred/linked to some wide-ranging remarks by Simplicius the Thinker. The part which caught my attention was his assertion that when Russia's military experiences an unexpected battlefield weapon failure, they analyse it to see if it can be improved.
I get the impression that the Christians try to make a perfect weapon, fall deeply in Love with it, and then mass-produce it with their fingers crossed. This routinely results in the West's Wonder-weapons for Ukraine becoming redundant within a month or two.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Oct 25 2023 7:30 utc | 15
Damien | Oct 25 2023 7:25 utc | 14
Intermediate range missile production was restarted under Trump. His targets were Iran and China. I assume the US now has some of these in stock. Where these are placed who knows. At the time Australia started a "joint missile development and production" thing with the US for production of missiles in Australia. I assume that is only bullshit political terminology. I assume an agreement was made to base US missiles in northern Australia pointed at China.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 25 2023 7:34 utc | 16
Posted by: Damien | Oct 25 2023 7:25 utc | 14
There's a recent report US is deploying 12 Patriot and THAAD batteries (total, probably) throughout the Middle East. It seems they are attempting to defend all their outposts through Syria and Iraq.
It depends really on the level of organization of resistance groups in Iraq and Syria. If they are up to par, this effort of US to defend all its possessions could end up most of them becoming cut off from supplies and isolated. That would be something to behold.
Most likely the carrier in the Persian gulf was thought to provide air cover for US bases in these regions, and it probably can as long as they don't fight directly with Iran. Otherwise it's just a liability with huge value of US prestige ready to go down to the bottom.
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 25 2023 7:38 utc | 17
Hoarsewhisperer | Oct 25 2023 7:30 utc | 15
Russia's ability to quickly analyze, adapt, produce, has become very apparent during the SMO.
Instead of mass producing wonder weapons that may or may not be effective under battlefield conditions, they have put a lot of emphasis in being able to adapt very quickly, to be able to quickly develop weapons and produce them as required, defensive or offensive.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 25 2023 7:41 utc | 18
Peter AU1 | Oct 25 2023 7:34 utc | 16
As an Australian I can tell you our government is in La La Land. Completely clueless. They are forking out $380B for 4 submarines from the US and the Brits, the early ones being used US ones. The lead line is long and the outcomes overpriced and pathetic. No wonder the US and UK arms industries are cheering.
Australia has also today agreed to send more ground troops to the ME. The only purpose can only be to wave the flag of unthinking camp followers.
They have previously agreed to send ageing F13s to Ukraine for a life span, I'm guessing, of two weeks.
Did I mention? We have signed up to buy F35s, a plane that has yet to decide whether it is a turkey or a lemon.
Idiots!
Posted by: Damien | Oct 25 2023 7:43 utc | 19
Damien | Oct 25 2023 7:43 utc | 19
F-35, yep. I have also read the submissions to the proposal. Submission 35 I think it is is well worth a read. Hopefully can still dig up a link if you have not seen it.
It is obvious now that with the eyes of the Australian sheeple fixated in fear on the evil China, the US is embarking on the systematic looting of Australia.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 25 2023 7:49 utc | 20
Didn't Putin say last month Russia has weapons based on new physical principals??
So maybe these "new" missles are part of that package.
Also, stationing a carrier group in Persian Gulf won't protect from Kizhal attack; they'll just have jets release over the Caspian Sea.
Posted by: Jerr | Oct 25 2023 7:58 utc | 21
@Peter AU1
Great points, just in the last week there was a TG post of rule changes in RF military procurement to allow much more liberal integration of externally sourced (*cough* China) components into military products. This is much closer to the Iranian model so hopefully it’ll kick things up another notch.
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 25 2023 8:04 utc | 22
new missiles capable of not only hitting targets at a great distance, but also, after launch, independently pursuing a target without illuminating it from the aircraft’s radar - from: "Military expert Vladislav Shurygin" This is very weird, confusing statement from Shurygin as fire & forget is no new capability! Illumination for aircraft's radar is already for decennia "old school" and not a must at all, depending on target type or other circumstances. The news is of course not the invention of active radarhoming warheads but the capacity of such radar to find smaller targets. It used to be simply "AWACS" killer but can now detect flying targets not only with lower RCS but home in on lower flying targets, filtering out scatter. It sounds to me like a change in the Agat 9B-1388 tech.https://www.turdef.com/article/russia-fires-awacs-killer-r-37m-against-ukrainian-fighter-jets
Posted by: John Dowser | Oct 25 2023 8:06 utc | 23
anon2020 | Oct 25 2023 8:04 utc | 22
I was not aware of that. Thanks. I would assume this is moving towards something like integration of mil tech and manufacturing between, at the minimum, Russia China and Iran. Three heads are better than one...
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 25 2023 8:10 utc | 24
I'm willing to accept Russia has developed advanced air-to-air missile. The limiting factor is probably the number of missiles Russian factories are able to produce.
Now imagine for one moment what the Ukrainian skies would look like if air-to-air missile production was outsourced to China.
Posted by: Passerby | Oct 25 2023 8:27 utc | 25
"[...] if modernized and expanded conventional U.S. forces are not capable of defeating Russia and China, then an expanded nuclear weapons capability must be able to."
https://www.sott.net/article/485377-The-US-Congress-now-has-the-plan-Get-everybody-on-Earth-killed
Posted by: Blob | Oct 25 2023 8:40 utc | 26
About a range of missiles: Russia is generation ahead of west (or even rest of the world) in missile fuels. Hyper sonic ones need very energetic fuel (densely packed) to achieve that range. Subsonic cruise missiles Russia have that go in range of 4000+ km (and by dimensions and weight are no significantly larger that western counterparts) also indicative "super" fuel Russia has.
About AA missile hits in that range against targets flying low: It is most likely data integration and remote guidance. No small missile can physically pack strong enough active radar to guide itself from that range, so other means (satellite? Russia has few new types in space lately) are detecting and transmitting target location corrections to missile mid flight. My guess, who knows, it is bleeding edge military secret.
Posted by: Abe | Oct 25 2023 9:06 utc | 27
I see this story gaining traction if so it is no wonder the US is worried. First I have heard of this weapon but it changes everything in technology
Posted by: Scot1and | Oct 25 2023 9:13 utc | 28
@Holey Moley #2
What b doesn't expand on is that combat planes have a number of missile warning systems.
The F16, for example, has both IR and radar-lock warning systems.
Mig 29s, certainly at least the more modern versions and most likely, all of them, also have missile warning systems.
At first glance, it looks like there are protocols for existing systems to determine IR and radar guided attacking missiles for most aircraft. However, since Ukraine is using ex-Soviet equipment - the standard setup for this equipment is certainly known to Russia. As the above actual pilot notes above - there are specific thresholds set - by default probably - which determine when a given radar signal (or IR signature of an approaching missile) is determined to have achieved "lock".
It would not surprise me if the Russian air force has reprogrammed the R37 missile to evade these standard parameters.
Thus it isn't absolutely necessary to have some brand new tech as opposed to a very smart use of knowledge of the defense systems and a retuning of guidance systems to take advantage.
There are also additional wrinkles which the R37 has which make this even more interesting - the above excerpts notes that the R37 has both a cruise mode and semi-active guidance capability.
Cruise mode effectively allows some period of loiter capability; known Ukrainian operating zones (like where they launch Storm Shadows from) would be obvious places to loiter.
Semi-active guidance means guidance from a secondary radar source - no continuous radar emissions from the missile and likely no missile lock warning.
The R37 speed of Mach 5-6 = 3800 to 4600 mph means it can close say, 10 miles in 7.8 to 9.5 seconds, or 3 miles in 2 to 3 seconds - the latter would definitely not be enough time for a warning.
Now take the above and add some economics. Unlike US missiles which are horrendously expensive:
1) Pac3 = $4M
2) SM2 = $2M
3) ESSM = $787K to $987K
Russian missiles tend to be significantly cheaper than their Western equivalents. I wonder if they are cheap enough to be able to lose some just because they loiter too long before a target shows up.
Posted by: c1ue | Oct 25 2023 9:47 utc | 29
This post by b, and the subsequent comments by seasoned barflies (I guess before the trolls roll out of bed), is the perfect example of why I love this site. Even though the information contained is not yet fully substantiated, its evaluation here is from a community of educated people. This is what is completely lacking in the corporate media (and even in most alternative media). Thanks to all for these contributions.
Posted by: KMRIA | Oct 25 2023 10:01 utc | 30
My repost from the Ukraine thread on this topic.
‘I think I’ll need to have more details about the individual engagements before believing the Russians have made a huge technological leap in missile/sensor technology that does not seem to have been reflected in the capabilities of similar platforms. I find prosaic over hyperbolic is best when speculating about Russian technological developments, as it is somewhat reflective of their attitude to design philosophy.’
Posted by: Milites | Oct 25 2023 10:22 utc | 31
MiG-31 fighter jets carrying Kinzhal hypersonic missiles are ready for aerial patrols over the Black Sea.
Posted by: AI | Oct 25 2023 10:45 utc | 32
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 25 2023 8:10 utc | 24
No worries, it’s this one I think.
There was a post ages ago (a year or more) that claimed pre-SMO drone development had been hampered by strict requirements that all components of military products be produced locally. Opening up the regulations should create a demand for components that can be sourced overseas initially and then produced locally if advantageous.
It’s actually in drone development that some of the most rapid development has been seen because of the great selection of RC technology outside of existing military procurement and production channels.
A lot of stuff that’s now ubiquitous might have been laughed out of the room 10 years ago.
https://t.me/ZandVchannel/83637
🇷🇺 Russian Defence Minister General of the Army Sergei Shoigu held a meeting at the National Centre for State Defence Control of the Russian Federation on issues related to supplies and prospects for the development of cannon artillery and multiple-launch rocket systems.▪️ During the meeting, the head of the Russian military department noted the importance of the prompt production of artillery systems and ammunition for them.
▪️ 'In the conditions of the special military operation it is especially important to quickly replenish stocks of means of defeat. The solution of this task directly depends on the ability of enterprises to increase the production of artillery systems, multiple-launch rocket systems, as well as to minimise the terms of their delivery to the troops,' said Sergei Shoigu.
▪️ Russian Defence Minister stressed that federal executive bodies have taken measures to increase the production of artillery systems.
▪️ 'Federal executive authorities have taken measures to increase their production. The Russian government has given the defence industry the right to use all reserves, including mobilisation capacities,' said Sergei Shoigu.
▪️ The head of the Russian military department added that the Russian Defence Ministry has simplified the contracting procedure, reduced the scope of testing, and lowered the requirements for the selection of component parts, provided that the quality of the final products is maintained.
▪️ 'Today we will discuss how work is organised to develop and increase the production of cannon artillery, multiple-launch rocket systems, and high-precision ammunition, taking into account the additional demand of the Armed Forces,' said the Russian Defence Minister.
Oct 17 at 13:55
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 25 2023 10:47 utc | 33
Hallo b,
I am not convinced that the numbers are due to
"...suddenly increased effectiveness of Russian aerospace forces..."
the vast majority of shot-downs are attributable to air defense facilities/units/systems
MoD distinguishes in its reports between Air defense facilities ( or Air defense units; or Russian air defense systems... ) and Fighter Aviation ( or Fighter jets )
and since 14.10.2023, out of 26 ONLY 2 kills go to the account of the Fighter Aviation
( 1 MIG-29 - 19.10. and 1 SU-24 - 21.10. )
to the claimed statement of Vladislav Shurygin
"... all of them were shot down far from the front line and outside the radius of Russian air defense systems, as well as outside the standard radius of Russian fighter missiles..."
from the MoD are usually also given the locations of the shot-downs ( except for the 7 MIG-29 on 20.10.2023 )
so he could have list the distances to the frontline :-)
( even if his 10-14 kills don't match the 26 from MoD )
If anything, this indicates improvements in ground-based air defense systems.
Posted by: ghiwen | Oct 25 2023 10:58 utc | 34
b, That is a total of 26 air assets over just 9 days!
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++/+++++
Shoigu told us today 24 in 5 days. I am assuming b then 2 over the next 4 days.
Posted by: AI | Oct 25 2023 11:02 utc | 35
This sounds all fine and dandy, but I was under the impression that Ukraine’s Air Force had already pretty much been incapacitated.
Posted by: Johnny Boy | Oct 25 2023 11:09 utc | 36
Johnny Boy @ 36:
Jets are currently being supplied by eastern European nations, at least until they have no more to offer after the Russians have shot them all out of the sky.
Then the Americans really will have to deliver the F-16s and F-35s and we will finally know how well (or not) the F-35s can deliver on over 20 years of investment of billions of green paper.
Posted by: Refinnejenna | Oct 25 2023 11:25 utc | 37
Hi,
A little bit off topic, but does anyone know what happened to Erwan Castel's TG channel? It seems to have gone private?
Posted by: Moloko | Oct 25 2023 11:30 utc | 38
Here is a short video-clip with Defense Minister Shoigu in which he allegedly tells some soldiers: "We have new weapon system, that shot down 24 Ukrainian airplane within the 5 days."
In another thread I mentioned I was curious about the slaughter in the Ukraine skies.
Two situations seem to be working side by side:
1) specially the plane shot near Odessa, Ukraine probably lost its Soviet era layered defense, we’ll be seeing more RF fighters probing and getting the opportunistic kill when possible (with or without new air to air missiles, RF already has the edge there)
2) All the others, apparently by air defense , this must be split in two components :
A) Against massive attacks AFU will probably try to counter with airforce, specially if RF is using it strongly
B) in a bulge that might mean sending fighters well within a strong AA area
C) the question should be why the sacrifice (after seeing the first ones being shot) how bad the situation to choose that level of losses
None of the points above precludes missile improvements , but I’d be surprised if that was the central point.
My 2 cents
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 25 2023 12:15 utc | 40
Here is a short video-clip with Defense Minister Shoigu in which he allegedly tells some soldiers: "We have new weapon system, that shot down 24 Ukrainian airplane within the 5 days."
Posted by: b | Oct 25 2023 11:48 utc | 39
And there we have it, forget what I said before, apparently there is a new AA in town
100 theories are not worth 1 fact
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 25 2023 12:18 utc | 41
Posted by: AI | Oct 25 2023 11:02 utc | 35
b, That is a total of 26 air assets over just 9 days!
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++/+++++
Shoigu told us today 24 in 5 days. I am assuming b then 2 over the next 4 days.
when did you start counting the days ?
b has obviously started on 16.10.2023, because at least between 07.-15.10. no shot-downs has taken place
with these figures, the discussion about 2 is more or less beside the point !!!
btw: you can check it for yours self at:
https://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/country.htm
and it whould be nice if you provide a link like:
https://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12482901@egNews
...Russian Defence Minister drew attention of the servicemen to great losses of Ukrainian Air Force in the past week: 'Our air defence systems intercepted 24 aircraft in five days'...
Posted by: ghiwen | Oct 25 2023 12:24 utc | 42
You have to wonder whether AFU has got a new influx of fighter aircraft from Poland or somewhere else. On the other hand, they might be committing them closer to support their river crossing attempt in Kherson, and to support Avdeevka might be a sign of desperation. Either way, shooting them down will probably reduce AFU opportunities to attack Crimea. There will still be attacks, but that many less.
From today:
Russian air defence units intercepted two MiG-29 aircraft, one Su-25 ground-attack aircraft, and one L-39 combat training aircraft of Ukrainian Air Force close to Krasnoarmeysk (Donetsk People's Republic), Kazachyi Lageri (Kherson region), and Sinelnikovo (Dnepropetrovsk region).
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 25 2023 12:30 utc | 43
CIA via Washington Post confirms assets in UKR operating against RU:
"Ukrainian spies with deep ties to CIA wage shadow war against Russia"
By Greg Miller and Isabelle Khurshudyan
October 23, 2023
https://archive.ph/Ka395#selection-357.0-357.68
this is a long read
"This article is based on interviews with more than two dozen current and former Ukrainian, U.S. and Western intelligence and security officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity citing security concerns as well as the sensitivity of the subject. The pressure on Kyiv to score victories against Russia and find ways to deter further aggression create incentives to exaggerate the record and capabilities of Ukraine’s services. The Post vetted key details with multiple sources including Western officials with access to independent streams of intelligence.
The CIA declined to comment."
"The missions have involved elite teams of Ukrainian operatives drawn from directorates that were formed, trained and equipped in close partnership with the CIA, according to current and former Ukrainian and U.S. officials. Since 2015, the CIA has spent tens of millions of dollars to transform Ukraine’s Soviet-formed services into potent allies against Moscow, officials said. The agency has provided Ukraine with advanced surveillance systems, trained recruits at sites in Ukraine as well as the United States, built new headquarters for departments in Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, and shared intelligence on a scale that would have been unimaginable before Russia illegally annexed Crimea and fomented a separatist war in eastern Ukraine. The CIA maintains a significant presence in Kyiv, officials said."
"The extent of the CIA’s involvement with Ukraine’s security services has not previously been disclosed. U.S. intelligence officials stressed that the agency has had no involvement in targeted killing operations by Ukrainian agencies, and that its work has focused on bolstering those services’ abilities to gather intelligence on a dangerous adversary. A senior intelligence official said that “any potential operational concerns have been conveyed clearly to the Ukrainian services.”
Posted by: AG | Oct 25 2023 12:41 utc | 44
Here's BORZZIKMAN's take on it:
https://youtu.be/H7K0NCFGZHQ
https://youtu.be/evzz2dW_yvA
Posted by: blueswede | Oct 25 2023 12:47 utc | 45
13 - I don't think they are insane, and suspicion of the USA is in any case not insane, it's good sense.
Posted by: Waldorf | Oct 25 2023 12:59 utc | 46
Posted by: blueswede | Oct 25 2023 12:47 utc | 45
Seems there are multifold factors at play here. Su-57 coating is highly efficient, enabling it to fly much closer to airborne radars, which also enables it to fly much closer to the point of action.
R-37M missile has a very long range, which means they can potentially operate very deep behind enemy lines with less risk.
Wonder if these aircraft can also be used as airborne radar platforms to feed data into air defense systems? They could potentially use the fighter now flying close to the front, as a relay to guide SAM missiles, too.
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 25 2023 13:00 utc | 47
Today's Daily Briefing adds to the toll:
Russian air defence units intercepted two MiG-29 aircraft, one Su-25 ground-attack aircraft, and one L-39 combat training aircraft of Ukrainian Air Force close to Krasnoarmeysk (Donetsk People's Republic), Kazachyi Lageri (Kherson region), and Sinelnikovo (Dnepropetrovsk region)
Damien 14 "the US is itching for a war" no, the US doesn't "war" we're looking for a bombing campaign. (not arguing against your points too strongly)
Posted by: scottindallas | Oct 25 2023 13:14 utc | 49
someone said Russia is winning in Ukraine, why introduce new weapons. Well, while they're winning, Ukraine with US/NATO guidance HAS fired a few rockets deep into Russia, little tactical effect, just terrorism really. But, that's something Russia WOULD want to stop.
Posted by: scottindallas | Oct 25 2023 13:16 utc | 50
Holey Moley @2:
"...if a Mach 5 (or even a Mach 1) missile hits you and you had no prior warning, how could you possibly have time to eject and survive?"
This isn't Hollywood, where cars always explode when they crash and aircraft/spacecraft instantly turn into fireballs when the princess goes "Pew! Pew! Pew!" at them.
"why does the aircraft's radar not pick up the radio signature?"
Other than passive backscatter radar, which is Soviet technology and not used on any US aircraft that I am aware of, radar systems do not "pick up" arbitrary radio signals. Conventional radar systems emit a specific signal and receive the same signal when reflected back at them. Unconventional radar like China's quantum radar only emit the signal and monitor photons that are quantum entangled with the ones transmitted... they detect transmitted photons' interaction with the target by observing the behavior of the transmitted photons' quantum entangled pairs. Of course, such unconventional radar is irrelevant since neither the US nor Russia has that technology. The main point here is that if the missile isn't emitting radar signals for its own tracking purposes then there is little to no radio signature from the missile for the target aircraft to detect.
"Why would [Russia] want to reveal such technology now, when the final outcome is beyond all doubt, and therby tip off its adversaries as to its level of technological sophistication?"
Because they already have something better in the works.
Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 25 2023 13:19 utc | 51
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 25 2023 13:00 utc | 47
Right, maybe the new stealth coating was what Putin's "new physical principals" reference was hinting about. Maybe in combo with the R37M.
Posted by: blueswede | Oct 25 2023 13:22 utc | 52
"The U.S. plans to introduce F-16s fighter jets with 'long range' (100 kilometer, 60 miles) AIM-120D air-to-air missiles to Ukraine."
Does it really? I haven't seen any recent information on when or if F 16s are ever going to be delivered to Ukranazistan. The were talking about 2025. By then it is unlikely Ukranazistan will still exist.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Oct 25 2023 13:36 utc | 53
Peter [email protected] are broke. That's why as soon as they smash a country they grab all it's Central Bank gold. In five eye countries they manipulate the markets and steal from the locals. Once a country passes laws, Canada, to seize bank accounts you know you live in a Tin Pot Dictatorship.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Oct 25 2023 13:37 utc | 54
There's a recent report US is deploying 12 Patriot and THAAD batteries (total, probably) throughout the Middle East.
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 25 2023 7:38 utc | 17
Will the Patriot missiles perform better than in 1991? Patriot failure
Posted by: Passerby | Oct 25 2023 13:41 utc | 55
Will the Patriot missiles perform better than in 1991? Patriot failure
Posted by: Passerby | Oct 25 2023 13:41 utc | 55
They seem quite good at catching kinzhals at terminal stage :D
Posted by: newbie | Oct 25 2023 13:53 utc | 56
Spent 10 minutes writong a commebt explaining to No 2 why the speed of a missile has nothing to do with whether a pilot will survive it, and the comment disappeared.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Oct 25 2023 13:55 utc | 57
Thanks for the reporting b
I shared a report about this yesterday, my time, and was quickly told I was wrong by some commenter so it is nice to see my comment confirmed.
I find it interesting that some commenters are ignoring the significance of Russia downing 25 planes in 5 days, regardless of the technology.
I also agree with the commenter above who shared that Russia doing this is a tell to empire that they are playing with FIRE!
Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 25 2023 13:59 utc | 58
Posted by: Damien | Oct 25 2023 7:25 utc | 14
interesting
Posted by: sln2002 | Oct 25 2023 14:01 utc | 59
A recent Telegram post says that the Russians have found a way to use their AWACS in coordination the the long-range S400 SAM system to shoot down low-flying Ukrainian aircraft over most of Ukraine. It looks like the AWACS is providing the missile guidance until the final intercept, so the target aircraft has no warning and can't take evasive action. This means the F-16s, when they arrive, will last about month. Goodbye Ukrainian air force.
Posted by: HH | Oct 25 2023 14:07 utc | 60
By the way, Russia just passed a law pulling ratification of nuclear test ban treaty a couple hours ago:
The bill to deratify the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) was approved by 156 votes to zero in the upper house after the lower house also passed it unanimously. It now goes to President Vladimir Putin for signing.
Posted by: Zet | Oct 25 2023 14:08 utc | 61
These new kills correspond to the introduction of Russia's latest AWACs plane. IMO, there's a new detection and targeting regime. Plus, there's the possibility that Russian AA missiles now have camera seeker heads similar to those used on the Lancet that can see the target at vast distances thus no radiation or other detection for the target to sense. Combined would be very effective.
someone said Russia is winning in Ukraine, why introduce new weapons. Well, while they're winning, Ukraine with US/NATO guidance HAS fired a few rockets deep into Russia, little tactical effect, just terrorism really. But, that's something Russia WOULD want to stop.
Posted by: scottindallas | Oct 25 2023 13:16 utc | 50
I think it is because with the US escalating in the Mediterranean Russia reveals the new tech to make the US think about starting a regional war.
Posted by: newbie | Oct 25 2023 13:20 utc | 202
Call me a Cold War sceptic, but I can remember when Soviet claims of fielding new technology was nothing of the sort. It usually meant innovation, not invention, or the deploying of an existing technology for the first time in Russian service, hence ‘new’. It didn’t help that the MIC actively supported these claims for their own self-serving interests.
I seriously doubt that Russia would reveal a generational improvement in missile technology to destroy an airforce that’s largely ineffective. Unless it’s a not so subtle warning to NATO that the expected deployment of F-16’s will fail to change the war’s current trajectory.
Until there is more information about the engagements I’ll reserve judgement, just because aircraft are shot down far behind the lines does not automatically mean an AAM was responsible.
Posted by: Milites | Oct 25 2023 14:18 utc | 64
it seems that there are more and more hints to my assumption
Posted by: ghiwen | Oct 25 2023 10:58 utc | 34
"...If anything, this indicates improvements in ground-based air defense systems..."
https://tass.com/politics/1696579 - Over 20 Ukrainian warplanes downed by S-400 system jointly with A-50 radar in past days
or
https://english.pravda.ru/news/hotspots/158016-s_400_triumf_ukraine/
Posted by: ghiwen | Oct 25 2023 14:35 utc | 65
Yesterday's clobber reports > 1200 Ukie KIA...
https://t.me/sitreports/16994
Russian Defence Ministry Report on the Progress of the Special Military Operation (25 October 2023)⚡️
▫️The RF Armed Forces continue the special military operation.
▫️In Kupyansk direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/31808), units of the Zapad Grouping repelled 15 attacks of assault detachments of the 14th, 32nd, 43rd, 54th, 67th Mechanized, and 101st Territorial Defence Brigades near Timkovka, Sinkovka (Kharkov reg), and Nadiya (LPR).
▫️ Up to 145 troop, 2 IFVs, and 2 MVs have been neutralised.
▫️Counterbattery warfare wiped out 1 US M777 howitzer, and 2 Gvozdika SAUs.
▫️Ammunition depots of the 1st Special Operations Brigade were destroyed close to Volchansk and Ogurtsovo (Kharkov reg).
▫️In Krasny Liman direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/31809), units of the Tsentr Grouping repelled 3 assault group attacks of the 15th National Guard Regiment, and the 67th Mechanized Brigade close to Grigorovka (DPR) and Chervonaya Dibrova (LPR).
▫️Strikes were launched at troops and hardware of the 63rd Mechanized Brigade near Torskoye (DPR).
▫️Up to 30 troops, 2 AFVs, and 3 MVs were eliminated.
▫️In Donetsk direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/31810), units the Yug Grouping repelled 5 assault squad attacks of the 24th Mechanized, and 77th Airmobile Brigades close to Kurdyumovka, Andreyevka, Kirovo, and Maloilyinovka (DPR).
▫️Russian units delivered strikes at troops and hardware close to Krasnoye, Andreyevka, Kleshcheyevka, and Bogdanovka (DPR).
▫️The enemy lost more than 500 troops, 1 tank, 3 AFVs, and two pickups.
▫️Counterbattery warfare wiped out 1 US M119 howitzer, and 1 Gvozdika SAU.
▫️In South Donetsk direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/31811), units of the Vostok Grouping inflicted losses on troop clusters of the 72nd Mechanized, 58th Motorized, and 128th Territorial Defence Brigades near Ugledar, Urozhaynoye, and Staromayorskoye (DPR).
▫️The enemy lost up to 160 troops, 1 tank, and 3 pickups.
▫️In Zaporozhye direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/31812), units of the Russian Grouping repelled 5 assault squad attacks of the 82th Mechanized, and 65th Airborne Brigades near Verbovoye and Rabotino (Zaporozhye reg).
▫️Up to 85 troops, 4 tanks, 5 AFVs, and 2 MVs were neutralised.
▫️Counterbattery warfare destroyed 2 US M777, 1 D-20, and 1 US M119 howitzers.
▫️In Kherson direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/31812), strikes were launched at located AFU troop clusters near Alyoshinsky island and the small railway bridge over the Dnieper.
▫️The AFU lost more than 110 troops, 3 MVs, and 1 D-30 howitzer.
▫️Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, UAVs, sile Troops and Artillery engaged AFU troops and hardware in 105 areas.
▫️1 command and observation post of the 15th Ukrainian National Guard Regiment was wiped out near Serebryanka (DPR).
▫️Air defences intercepted 2 MiG-29 aircraft, 1 Su-25 ground attack aircraft, and 1 L-39 combat training aircraft close to Krasnoarmeysk (DPR), Kazachy Lageri (Kherson reg), and Sinelnikovo (Dnepropetrovsk reg).
▫️2 US ATACMS missiles, 1 S-200 Converts, 2 HARM antiradar missiles, and 2 US HIMARS projectiles, were intercepted.
▫️51 UAVs were intercepted close to Zolotaryovka, Nyrkovo, Topolevka (LPR), Novosyolkovka (DPR), Ingenernoye, Mirnoye (Zaporozhye reg), Peschanovka (Kherson reg), Tavolzhanka, and Olshana (Kharkov reg).
📊 In total, 515 aircraft and 253 helicopters, 8,271 UAVs, 441 air defence systems, 12,930 tanks and other AFVs, 1,169 MLRS vehicles, 6,875 guns and mortars, and 14,662 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the SMO.
Lots more Ukie dead....
I saw a video of a Ukie soldier attacking a woman on a city street for no reason at all...
Things are falling apart....
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 25 2023 14:50 utc | 66
Another thought, but this one falls more under the intellectually curious rather than the skeptical pile: Russia is winning big time. Why would it want to reveal such technology now, when the final outcome is beyond all doubt, and therby tip off its adversaries as to its level of technological sophistication?
Posted by: Holey Moley | Oct 25 2023 6:40 utc | 2
A very good question....
Apparently, the Russians sent a warning.....to the usual suspects....
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 25 2023 15:00 utc | 67
‘I think I’ll need to have more details about the individual engagements before believing the Russians have made a huge technological leap in missile/sensor technology that does not seem to have been reflected in the capabilities of similar platforms. I find prosaic over hyperbolic is best when speculating about Russian technological developments, as it is somewhat reflective of their attitude to design philosophy.’
Posted by: Milites | Oct 25 2023 10:22 utc | 31
I await with baited breath.... your post giving all of us the juicy details of how the Russians
splashed 25 Ukie aircraft in 9 days...
As for Russian technological break throughs.... we await your analysis of Russia's nuclear powered
Cruise Missile Berevestnik...
BECAUSE...
Being a true skeptic.... We can trust everything you say.....without corroboration...
UNLIKE....
Those pesky Russians.... who keep upsetting your mental apple cart...
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 25 2023 15:10 utc | 68
I sincerely hope that they use these new air-to-air missiles on the genocidal ZOF aircraft. Soon.
Posted by: tawharanui | Oct 25 2023 15:13 utc | 69
My guess about R-37M variant was wrong:
Source: the planes that Shoigu spoke about were shot down by the S-400 in conjunction with the A-50 AWACS aircraft (machine translation)
MOSCOW, October 25. /tass/. Russia used the S-400 Triumph anti-aircraft missile system in conjunction with the A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft during a special military operation in Ukraine. This was reported to TASS by a source close to the Russian defense ministry.Earlier, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that the Russian armed forces had anti-aircraft missile systems that shot down 24 Ukrainian aircraft in five days.
"Russia used the S-400 Triumph air defense system in tandem with the A-50 long - range radar detection aircraft, which ensured the success of using the system against enemy aircraft, "the source said. TASS has no official confirmation of this information.
According to the interlocutor of the agency, the S-400 air defense system was fired at the maximum range at targets that were at an altitude of about 1 thousand meters at the time of the defeat, while new warheads of anti-aircraft guided missiles were used.
About the air defense systemThe S-400 Triumph (NATO codification: SA-21 Growler) is a Russian long - and medium-range anti-aircraft missile system. It is designed to destroy air attack and reconnaissance vehicles (including aircraft made using stealth technology) and any other air targets in conditions of intense fire and electronic countermeasures. Adopted by the Russian Armed Forces in 2007.
The system is capable of hitting aircraft and cruise missiles at a range of 3 km to 400 km, and ballistic targets flying at speeds of up to 4.8 km / s - at a range of up to 60 km and at an altitude of up to 30 km.
The target detection range is up to 600 km, the speed of hit targets is up to 17.3 thousand km / h, the number of simultaneously fired targets is up to 36 (up to six by one air defense system), and the number of simultaneously guided missiles is 72.
A-50 AWACS plane, flying high and seeing far, directly controls S-400 missiles to strike at targets which the usual S-400 ground based radars can not even see.
Neat - haven't seen anything like that on the western side of things.
"During the SVO, Russia used the S-400 Triumph air defense system in tandem with the A-50 early warning aircraft, which ensured the success of the system’s use in aviation adversary..."
I have some doubts about s-400 - it is too big to go undercover/undetected by AWACS and SAT-monitoring... and with their explosion / kill radius I dont think a pilot can eject
Posted by: gpc | Oct 25 2023 15:22 utc | 72
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 25 2023 15:10 utc | 68
Seems you’re the one who’s had their apple cart toppled, given your vituperative response to simple expression of well founded skepticism. Until we have more details about the engagements, especially altitude, and tempo of Ukrainian air operations (increased casualty rates might reflect this) it might behove you to follow suit.
Posted by: b | Oct 25 2023 15:14 utc | 70
The E3A has a similar hand-off function but to aircraft, not ground based AD systems, showing the differing emphasis again on AD responsibilities and investment of East and West.
Posted by: Milites | Oct 25 2023 15:32 utc | 73
Some time ago the Russians also tested a new system for integrating the data from three fighter jets to give a wide area view of potential threats which any of the fighters could act upon. Clearly the Russians have been working on and testing improvements in their integrated air defense sysyems and testing them in the SMO battle space. The two kills yesterday were credited to ground based AA teams. They have also been working on the sea drone problem - timely detection and elimination - and the description of the latest attack on Sevastopol and its elimination I found both novel and confusing. Seems like a new approach was used. I believe they were underwater drones.
Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 25 2023 15:33 utc | 74
I get the impression that the Christians try to make a perfect weapon, fall deeply in Love with it, and then mass-produce it with their fingers crossed. This routinely results in the West's Wonder-weapons for Ukraine becoming redundant within a month or two.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Oct 25 2023 7:30 utc | 15
This terminology "the Christians" is needlessly confusing.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Oct 25 2023 15:35 utc | 75
Posted by: b | Oct 25 2023 15:15 utc | 71
That’s a result of their premature use against the airfields, resulting in one virtually intact unit recovered and subsequent upgrades to the S-X interception algorithms and their sensor suites.
Posted by: Milites | Oct 25 2023 15:43 utc | 76
A few days ago, I heard a plane so loud that I ran outside to see what it was. It was an AWACS plane, flying very low, and very slow, just to the south of my house. A few minutes later, it came back to the north.
I live in flyover country, but that usually means jets fly over on their way to the coasts, not an AWACS flying low over the town.
You would think that they would keep the AWACS over the Black Sea, or wherever they are targeting now.
General Milley wasn't kidding when he said that the biggest threat to the US was its own population, I guess. Obviously, he was talking about the US ruling class, since it makes no sense to say that the population is a threat to the population (although he specified white men as the enemy, so maybe...).
Posted by: wagelaborer | Oct 25 2023 16:00 utc | 77
Holey Moley | Oct 25 2023 6:40 utc | 2
"Why would it want to reveal such technology now, when the final outcome is beyond all doubt, and therby tip off its adversaries as to its level of technological sophistication?"
not that I get invited to Russian strategy meetings but it has been apparent since the start of the SMO that the Russians have kept many of their weapons systems and resources in reserve.
I suspect this is because as we are climbing the escalation ladder the Russians saw the ultimate escalation was going to be an all out war with NATO and kept forces adequate to the task of defending against NATO in reserve and out of sight of NATO intelligence.
The R-37 was meant to be a tanker / AWAC killer fired by Mig-31's from behind the Russian AD bubble. I suspect the use of them right now is two fold. First to clean up the remnants of the rebuilt Ukrainian air force that has been used to harass the Russian rear with storm shadow strikes and second to demonstrate that Russia has these missiles and they work as advertised because we are at that point in the conflict where funding to Ukraine isn't winning the war and an all out war with NATO is on the table.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Oct 25 2023 16:16 utc | 78
Russian electronics warfare detection technology is on a Star Wars level. Even though the US has their technology industry including chip tech basically "out of this world", the EW direction might not be as sexy or looking productive (profitable) enough to increase their R&D budgets. Also, does the States have many serious brainiacs left (now that Chinese and Indian brain power is gone) to create the real Wunderwaffen- extensive, over-lapping integrated AAM tech for ANY eventuality??
Posted by: bisfugged | Oct 25 2023 16:31 utc | 79
b | Oct 25 2023 15:14 utc | 70--
Thanks for confirming my hypothesis, b. As Russia continues to introduce the new A-50 AWACS into theatre, I expect similar results. I also noted the increase in drone takedowns. It seems to me that the A-50 ought to also become a player in the counter-battery war to augment drones. The message to NATO ought to be very clear--your air force will be taken out well beyond your ability to counter.
Posted by: ghiwen | Oct 25 2023 10:58 utc | 34
Correct; the majority if you believe MoD releases, have been surface to air hits.
Posted by: Down South | Oct 25 2023 7:08 utc | 8
Also correct. Now add in that deliveries of new A-50M awacs have begun (can't build them fast enough), the first turned over to MoD I believe was a little less than a month ago at least in term of when it was reported to the press.
Did make me wonder this week if beyond just more coverage or more consistent coverage, if the newer awacs off the line perhaps have cooperative engagement capability upgrades compatible perhaps with both R37M and SA21 links. It's something they've lacked or lagged on (at least via public sources), compared to say the USN (latest gen e-2d +aim10D|sm3|sm6) in recent years.
I tend to doubt a new "wonder weapon" mod of R37M (already quite capable) has appeared or is responsible, I could just be some new tactics, temporary dynamics, or info (or lack there of from other side) at play lately that may be adapted too, time will tell, that said CEC when it all works right can alter the environment quite a bit. /shrugs
Posted by: knighthawk | Oct 25 2023 16:59 utc | 81
What is wrong with this picture?
1) Putin is to be arrested for taking children to safety from the war zone.
2) Israel calls for Guterres' resignation for calling out Israel.
Posted by: Jonathan W | Oct 25 2023 17:19 utc | 84
Another thought, but this one falls more under the intellectually curious rather than the skeptical pile: Russia is winning big time. Why would it want to reveal such technology now, when the final outcome is beyond all doubt, and therby tip off its adversaries as to its level of technological sophistication?
Posted by: Holey Moley | Oct 25 2023 6:40 utc | 2
------------------------
one thought for another thought
excuse my English, hope my point comes across,
you can theorize, test and practice (time is a variable you have to consider) this aplies to people, machines and code and what else all in controlled environments ,to improve your chances for a success.
but nothing beats to try and see if it will work in the the real world with a lot of unknown variables . though Not hundred percent guarantee it will work a second time (some variables have changed from the first time).
And now they know - well now you know that they know, so with that knowledge you do your best to anticipate their next move and come up with something that they will not know.
Never a calm moment, you snooze you loose.
Posted by: apennyforyourthought | Oct 25 2023 17:19 utc | 85
C) the question should be why the sacrifice (after seeing the first ones being shot) how bad the situation to choose that level of losses
None of the points above precludes missile improvements , but I’d be surprised if that was the central point.
My 2 cents
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 25 2023 12:15 utc | 40
----
Re: C - I'm wondering if there isn't a hounds to the hunters dynamic, with gerans targeting aircraft on the ground being used to flush them into the air where hounds are sometimes waiting, creating a bit of a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation that would explain perhaps some of the a2a engagements.
Your A and B could cover the rest (S2A engagements). /2c
---
The were talking about 2025. By then it is unlikely Ukranazistan will still exist.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Oct 25 2023 13:36 utc | 53
---
Last I recall Netherlands or maybe it was Belgium said delivery would start in early spring 2024, who knows though. /2c
Posted by: knighthawk | Oct 25 2023 17:34 utc | 86
Regarding the possibility of an extremely long range air-to-air missile, I believe this is not just possible but likely. I've seen pictures of both Chinese and Russian developments of two-staged, semi-ballistic AAM. Long range radar locates the approximate position of the target and the first stage puts it there at high altitude. Stealth aircraft are most vulnerable to a top down attack. This is the stealth buster.
Posted by: Promptcritical | Oct 25 2023 17:40 utc | 87
Based on public information, the S-400 interceptor missiles use semi-active seeking so the target has to be illuminated by a secondary targeting radar. Ejected pilots report no pre-impact illumination warning and does the A-50 AWACS have a target illumination radar that can operate at the limits of the S-400 range anyway?
A-50 passing target coordinates to patrol aircraft carrying R-37M still seems like a better match even though S-400 is officially stated.
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 25 2023 17:55 utc | 88
Holey Moley | Oct 25 2023 6:40 utc | 2
"Why would it want to reveal such technology now, when the final outcome is beyond all doubt, and therebyy tip off its adversaries as to its level of technological sophistication?"
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Perhaps to make its adversaries think twice to start new big adventures in the Middle East (or elsewhere)?
Posted by: Michael | Oct 25 2023 7:10 utc | 9
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I suspect Russia is telling Joe Biden and NATO to forget about sending the Ukraine Nazis those F-16s, it would just be a waste of money. Especially now that the Republicans have a Speaker of the House (Mike Johnson). The Republican agenda is to start cutting social programs such as Social Security and Medicare. It will be a tough sale to give tons of cash and worthless fighter jets to Zelensky while cutting social programs for Americans I would suspect.
Posted by: Ed | Oct 25 2023 18:01 utc | 89
Another thought, but this one falls more under the intellectually curious rather than the skeptical pile: Russia is winning big time. Why would it want to reveal such technology now, when the final outcome is beyond all doubt, and therby tip off its adversaries as to its level of technological sophistication?
Posted by: Holey Moley | Oct 25 2023 6:40 utc | 2
Think MIDDLE EAST.
Posted by: justruth | Oct 25 2023 18:12 utc | 90
… I've seen pictures of both Chinese and Russian developments of two-staged, semi-ballistic AAM. …
Posted by: Promptcritical | Oct 25 2023 17:40 utc | 87
Please post links if you have them, this reminds of the Indian SMART (Supersonic Missile Assisted Release of Torpedo) system that can quickly deliver a torpedo in response to target detection. Much faster than flying an ASW aircraft out to the middle of nowhere.
Using missile / rocket technology to quickly delivery specialised payloads where they are needed is a generic concept, one could do the same with drone surveillance and strike packages in response to the approximate detection of enemy artillery units. Respond in tens of seconds, not tens of minutes, the necessary elements are already proven technology.
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 25 2023 18:20 utc | 91
Mike Johnson has just been elected new speaker of the house. Apparently prefers to spend money on fixing problems in the States rather than Ukraine.
If confirmed, Ukraine may have to wait a while before those replacement planes arrive ...
Posted by: Marvin | Oct 25 2023 18:21 utc | 92
A-50 AWACS plane, flying high and seeing far, directly controls S-400 missiles to strike at targets which the usual S-400 ground based radars can not even see.
Neat - haven't seen anything like that on the western side of things.
Posted by: b | Oct 25 2023 15:14 utc | 70
We have seen, and complained about letting Poseidons and awacs help target RF targets.
What we did NOT see was that for moving targets.
And I’d be tempted to say that the new warheads might have AÍ target recognition (like the lancets have for tanks)
You throw the missile 400 km to where you expect the enemy to be, as it goes down you guide for change of position but let it do the terminal approach on its own optics…
If you can get closer than usual you can also exchange warhead size for fuel/range
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 25 2023 18:26 utc | 93
RT Oct 25, 2023
Russian nuclear forces conduct major test
The exercises included ballistic and cruise missile launches by all parts of the military 'triad', the Kremlin has said
Russia has conducted a major exercise aimed at testing its strategic nuclear forces, the Kremlin confirmed on Wednesday. The drills involved all three components of the nuclear triad: intercontinental ballistic missiles, nuclear-armed submarines, and strategic bombers, the statement said.
According to Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, the drills focused on the simulated delivery of “a massive nuclear strike by the strategic offensive-oriented forces in response to a nuclear strike by a [simulated] enemy.”
The test also evaluated military leadership readiness capacity to command the strategic nuclear forces, the Kremlin added. All forces involved “followed through” with their goals, it added.
Posted by: Perimetr | Oct 25 2023 18:31 utc | 94
I have some doubts about s-400 - it is too big to go undercover/undetected by AWACS and SAT-monitoring... and with their explosion / kill radius I dont think a pilot can eject
Posted by: gpc | Oct 25 2023 15:22 utc | 72
The 40N6 missile for the S-400 air defense system was accepted into Russian service in October 2018. The 40N6’s maximum engagement range is thought to be around 380 kilometers, while the missile’s maximum altitude for target interception is approximately 30 kilometers.
Designed and developed by Russian missile maker MKB Fakel, the missile will be serial-produced by the Moscow-based MMZ Avangard, the sole supplier of missiles for the S-400.
Maybe they improved it for bigger range and smaller blast and that's why pilots survive.
And you can get it much closer to the front if it is guided from a plane, forget the administration center, the command and control and the radar vehicles. go S400 "Light"
Just get a 5P85TE with some missiles, and maybe a 92N6E to guide the missile for most of the trajectory, and you're good for firing. And no time lost setting up a typical S400 battery.
Now the most interesting thing is what the other side does, RF has, so far, ignored awacs even close to the war area. If nato tries to nullify RF's awacs then maybe open season on nato's ISR assets as well.
Posted by: newbie | Oct 25 2023 18:54 utc | 95
Why would it want to reveal such technology now, when the final outcome is beyond all doubt, and therby tip off its adversaries as to its level of technological sophistication?
Speculation: a warning.
Make Maerica think twice before kicking off a regional war in the Middle East that is guaranteed to turn to WW3, whatever Maerican dipshit strategists think.
That or field testing these speculative new missiles to make sure they work within tolerances before a potential showdown with a warmongering mad Maerica.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Oct 25 2023 19:08 utc | 96
I think it is because with the US escalating in the Mediterranean Russia reveals the new tech to make the US think about starting a regional war.
My man. Agreed. It has a very Putin feel to it. A subtlety.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Oct 25 2023 19:11 utc | 97
By the way, Russia just passed a law pulling ratification of nuclear test ban treaty a couple hours ago:
The bill to deratify the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) was approved by 156 votes to zero in the upper house after the lower house also passed it unanimously. It now goes to President Vladimir Putin for signing.
Posted by: Zet | Oct 25 2023 14:08 utc | 61
And now it's time for russia to show that their nukes still work (after seeing how many sofa generals in the west say there is no problem that few if any will work)
The most effective way would be a double standard use test. Change the trajectory and inform for no misunderstandings and a silo based and a submarine based would do a one-two strike.
A pitty that Semipalatinsk is now out of the question. do you think Syria might lend them a , nearly desertic, spot on the NE?
Posted by: newbie | Oct 25 2023 19:11 utc | 98
Holey Moley | Oct 25 2023 6:40 utc | 2"Why would it want to reveal such technology now, when the final outcome is beyond all doubt, and therby tip off its adversaries as to its level of technological sophistication?"
While not perfectly analogous, I can't help but to be reminded of a scene from Stanley Kubrick's Dr. Strangelove. Strangelove himself explains how deterrence works in the clip I link to.
https://youtu.be/8AmV3Ais27g?si=lSgSnR1NQL1E_39c
Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 25 2023 19:12 utc | 99
Instead of mass producing wonder weapons that may or may not be effective under battlefield conditions, they have put a lot of emphasis in being able to adapt very quickly, to be able to quickly develop weapons and produce them as required, defensive or offensive.
Unlike the West seems Russia has been studying war. Modern war is technological advance and counter advance...magnetic mines and degaussing, encryption and decryption, submarines and sonar, etc. The innovation loop is key, and the ability to battle test systems priceless. Maericas weaponry is not suitable to fight today's war. Their 'Last Stand at the Persian Corral', while appealing to the jingoist sensitivity of the Maerican public, would certainly result in their annihilation.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Oct 25 2023 19:19 utc | 100
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The US treats their armaments industry as a "jobs program". Looks like a lot of Lockheed employees will be on the unemployment line if the F-35 hanger queen ever takes to the skies.
Posted by: Eric Blair | Oct 25 2023 6:23 utc | 1