I am not sure how valid this is but I am sure it is relevant:
Victor vicktop55 @vicktop55 – 16:58 UTC · Oct 24, 2023
Military expert Vladislav Shurygin: The Pentagon has become sharply concerned about the suddenly increased effectiveness of the Russian Aerospace Forces.
In two weeks, the Russians staged a real massacre in the Ukrainian sky. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost at least 10 of their aircraft (according to other sources, 14).
Moreover, all of them were shot down far from the front line and outside the radius of Russian air defense systems, as well as outside the standard radius of Russian fighter missiles. Those pilots who were able to eject reported that until the moment their planes were hit, they did not receive warning information about the attack from the appropriate warning systems.
The Americans believe that the Russian Aerospace Forces have acquired new missiles capable of not only hitting targets at a great distance, but also, after launch, independently pursuing a target without illuminating it from the aircraft’s radar, using a radio signature to guide it (the target).
Now Americans carefully check this information and consider it critically important. Since, if it is confirmed, it means that the Russians have acquired a weapon that will neutralize all the advertised advantages of their new main fighter, the F-35.
Vladislav Shurygin is indeed a Russian 'military expert' who has had various appearances on Russian talk shows.
The claim that there is 'a real massacre in the Ukrainian sky' is valid if the recent daily reports of the Russian Ministry of Defense are near to reality. I for one believe they are.
The typical Ukrainian air-force loss rate over the first three quarters of this year was one to three air planes or helicopters per week.
Since the mid of October the Russian daily reports claimed, according to my notes, the shot down of:
- 17 Ukrainian Mig-29 fighter aircraft
- 2 Ukrainian SU-24 tactical bombers
- 3 Ukrainian SU-25 close air support jets
- 1 Ukrainian L-39 fighter jet trainer
- 3 MI-8 transport helicopters
That is a total of 26 air assets over just 9 days!
If this is even near to the truth it is a catastrophic loss rate for the Ukrainian air force.
Is this even possible, one might ask. I believe it is. In October 2022, after a decades long development phase, media announced the first kill of a Ukrainian plane by a Russian R-37M long-range air-to-air missile:
The R-37 was developed from the R-33. For compatibility with aircraft that did not have the MiG-31's sophisticated radar, the semi-active seeker was replaced with a variant of the Agat 9B-1388 active seeker. Similarly, folding tail controls allow semi-conformal carriage on planes that are not as big as the MiG-31.
Mid-body strakes enhance lift and hence increase range. According to Defence Today, the range depends on the flight profile, from 80 nautical miles (150 km) for a direct shot to 215 nautical miles (398 km) for a cruise glide profile.
The R-37M designation has since been used for a modernized variant of the missile, also known as RVV-BD (Raketa Vozduh-Vozduh Bolyshoy Dalnosty, or Long-Range Air-to-Air Missile). R-37M's range exceeds 200 km, and it is capable of hypersonic speeds (~Mach 5). It will be carried by the modernized MiG-31BM interceptors and Su-35S and Su-57 multirole fighters. It is not known whether the long-range air-to-air missile for the Su-57, designated as Izdeliye 810, is a derivative of the R-37M.
The missile can attack targets at altitudes of 15–25,000 meters, guided semi-actively or actively through the Agat 9B-1388 system.
The R-37M is claimed to have a maximum reach of 400 kilometer (~250 miles) and a hypersonic speed of Mach 5-6. It can be fired from safe airspace, outside of any Ukrainian air-defense range, deep into Ukraine.
In February 2023 Ukraine claimed to have found the wreckage of an R-37M.
Modified Ukrainian air-planes have been used to fire British Storm Shadow missiles (and the similar French SCALP-EG) at Russian targets. I haven't found any recent report of their successful use.
Ukrainian air assets have to fly near to the ground to survive.
The sudden increase in Ukrainian air losses points to the introduction, in large numbers, of a new variant of the R-37M with an updated targeting capability and/or an even longer range.
The U.S. plans to introduce F-16s fighter jets with 'long range' (100 kilometer, 60 miles) AIM-120D air-to-air missiles to Ukraine. They are clearly inferior to Russian air force capabilities and can only contribute to the losses.