Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
October 11, 2023
Ukraine SitRep: Storming Andivka – Ukrainian Losses

The Russian military has launched small attacks along the whole frontline. A major effort is made near Andivka which yesterday was bombed to smithereens:

The headline reads “RF Army has delivered a blow of previously unseen might against the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU)”. What they are describing is an aerial bombing of Avdeevka, the heavily fortified Ukrainian town 14 kilometers away from Donetsk city, which is an urban center of more than a million inhabitants and capital of the Donbas oblast (region) of the same name. Donetsk city has been struck by missiles and artillery shells launched from Avdeevka on a daily basis from the time before the Special Military Operation, and with ever greater intensity during the SMO. Video images of destroyed homes and apartment buildings have appeared on Russian evening news together casualty figures and the testimony of victims.

The attack on Avdeevka came early in the morning when the Ukrainians were attempting to carry out a rotation of their troops. Eyewitnesses said that “the earth shook” in the whole area as a result of the bombing.

The bombing of Avdeevka today, like the reported destruction of a major Ukrainian command post by 1.5 ton bombs a couple of days ago, would suggest the “softening up” phase before a major ground offensive.


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Since 2014 the Ukrainian military had made Andivka into a fortress. It requires big bombs to break its bunkers.


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That something important was coming up could be seen it the recent Daily Reports by the Russian Ministry of Defense.

The ones put out on the 8th, 9th and 10th of October showed relatively few Ukrainian casualties (655, 630, 580) and a reduced counter artillery campaign with only 6, 7 and 8 Ukrainian guns hit on those days. It was a sign that something was coming up.

Today's report, which includes the numbers from yesterday's campaign against Andivka and other places show high Ukrainian casualty numbers (895) and hits on some 24 Ukrainian artillery systems.

The Ukrainians seem to fight almost exclusively on foot. Losses of armored fighting vehicles have become rare. Today's report reports hits on only 7 armored combat systems (including tanks) but also hits on 35 transport vehicles, i.e trucks and pick-ups.

Yesterday's evening summary by Strana.news described the bad state most of Ukraine's brigades are in (machine translation):

Reports of the beginning of massive attacks by the Russian army coincided with the appearance of an increasing amount of information about significant problems with the offensive potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

As we have already written, ex-adviser to the President's Office Alexey Arestovich called on the Ukrainian command to go on the defensive and abandon the offensive, which, in his opinion, is hopeless with the current balance of forces.

Also in social networks, a video from a Ukrainian military man was distributed, who talks about problems in the "Guards Offensive" brigades due to heavy losses and poor organization.

"I communicate with different military personnel from different branches of the armed forces and, in principle, I understand that cp@ka is everywhere. But I did not expect that in the rampant "Offensive Guard" we will meet with those mistakes that even the most meaty brigades no longer make," says a National Guard soldier in Tiktok.

Then he describes various problems in specific teams. Let's list the main ones:

  • Platoon commanders in critical areas, including on the Zaporozhye front, are appointed junior lieutenants without military experience and knowledge.
  • Many fighters have not received sufficient training;
  • Coordination at the company and battalion level is almost nonexistent. Maximum-squads and platoons;
  • Huge losses – "three companies enter, only a few go back";

"One village took an infantry company in a short period of time. 120 plus or minus people," says the military man.

  • The Russian Federation has many times more forces and resources – "no matter how strong you are, you will be stupidly beaten by the crowd";
  • In some cases, the assault fighters go on foot – 7 km in equipment for 35 kg.

Other reports have confirmed that the Ukrainian military has long lost its middle officer and NCO corps. Smart kids fresh from senior high school are leading platoons of men mostly in 30s or 40s and 50s. Brigade commanders give direct orders down to platoons because the staff of battalions and companies in between is no longer there.

The Ukraine lacks artillery. The Russian counter battery fire has become more and more intense.

The advantage the HIMARS systems with their 70 kilometer reach had given Ukraine is also gone. The U.S. delivered  HIMARS systems, which previously had been positioned safely out of reach of Russian counter-battery fire, are now easy to reach targets.

Russia's new versions of the Lancet kamikaze drone have destroyed Ukrainian fighter planes on the ground some 90 kilometer behind the frontline.

Smaller Russian First Person View (FPV) suicide drones now come with thermal night vision.

The new Tornado-S Multi Launch Rocket System (MLRS) provides a reach of 120 kilometer with GPS guided missiles.

It is pretty much over for the Ukrainian military. The only sensible action it can now take is to shorten the frontline and to retreat behind some natural defense barrier like the Dnieper river.

However, Zelensky still talks of victory and is unlikely to order such a move.

Comments

Posted by: Satepestage | Oct 11 2023 20:15 utc | 48
i dont think its held in check by a few true believers, i think there are a large number of them wielding the lash, and the conscripts get dumped in the combat zone with no easy way out. which is why so many are surrendering to Russia.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Oct 11 2023 20:28 utc | 101

Posted by: Satepestage | Oct 11 2023 20:15 utc | 48
i dont think its held in check by a few true believers, i think there are a large number of them wielding the lash, and the conscripts get dumped in the combat zone with no easy way out. which is why so many are surrendering to Russia.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Oct 11 2023 20:28 utc | 102

Posted by: pretzelattack | Oct 11 2023 20:16 utc | 49
Many claim to be pro-Russia, yet oppose imperialism’s limited resources being bogged down in occupied Palestine, curious.

Posted by: Colin | Oct 11 2023 20:34 utc | 103

Posted by: pretzelattack | Oct 11 2023 20:16 utc | 49
Many claim to be pro-Russia, yet oppose imperialism’s limited resources being bogged down in occupied Palestine, curious.

Posted by: Colin | Oct 11 2023 20:34 utc | 104

Military Summary Latest The Fall | Avdiivka Operational Encirclement. Insane Pressure.
Avdiivka would be a huge loss to Ukraine, it is much more heavily fortified than Bakhmut, with 8+ years of construction. If the Russians have really reached Siverne in the south and Berdychi in the north that is major progress and leaves a gap of just 7km, with only two roads well within Russian artillery range.The Russians may also have gained a foothold in the south of the built up fortified areas, providing the bridgehead from which to slowly work through the rest of Avdiivka. If Russia can fully encircle Avdiivka it can spend the winter slowly subduing it with the Azov and the massive guided bombs.
That will be a great achievement to clear the way for a Spring offensive from that area, and in the meantime may suck in many Ukrainian brigades if the Ukrainian leadership attempt to defend/retake it as they have with Bakhmut.

Posted by: Roger | Oct 11 2023 20:58 utc | 105

Military Summary Latest The Fall | Avdiivka Operational Encirclement. Insane Pressure.
Avdiivka would be a huge loss to Ukraine, it is much more heavily fortified than Bakhmut, with 8+ years of construction. If the Russians have really reached Siverne in the south and Berdychi in the north that is major progress and leaves a gap of just 7km, with only two roads well within Russian artillery range.The Russians may also have gained a foothold in the south of the built up fortified areas, providing the bridgehead from which to slowly work through the rest of Avdiivka. If Russia can fully encircle Avdiivka it can spend the winter slowly subduing it with the Azov and the massive guided bombs.
That will be a great achievement to clear the way for a Spring offensive from that area, and in the meantime may suck in many Ukrainian brigades if the Ukrainian leadership attempt to defend/retake it as they have with Bakhmut.

Posted by: Roger | Oct 11 2023 20:58 utc | 106

can they fufill a second year against russia?
I doubt it .)

Posted by: Macpott | Oct 11 2023 20:58 utc | 107

can they fufill a second year against russia?
I doubt it .)

Posted by: Macpott | Oct 11 2023 20:58 utc | 108

It defies belief that the Ukraine command still insists on feeding Ukrainians – old, tired, dragging through the mud what ought to be trucked – into the meat grinder as both sides long acknowledge the situation.
The Ukraine command perfectly plays along with Russia wish to limit the destruction to a narrow yet long band, maximising the grind for Ukraine while minimising the damage on future Novorussian land.
I can only imagine the Ukrainians take hope from the whole of NATO swirling around the battle – thousands of foreign soldiers, supplies from every corner of the planet, weapons of nearly any sort, 24/7 torrents of air- and spaceborne intel, from FUKUS to Poland to Romania all powers involved.

Posted by: Leser | Oct 11 2023 21:06 utc | 109

It defies belief that the Ukraine command still insists on feeding Ukrainians – old, tired, dragging through the mud what ought to be trucked – into the meat grinder as both sides long acknowledge the situation.
The Ukraine command perfectly plays along with Russia wish to limit the destruction to a narrow yet long band, maximising the grind for Ukraine while minimising the damage on future Novorussian land.
I can only imagine the Ukrainians take hope from the whole of NATO swirling around the battle – thousands of foreign soldiers, supplies from every corner of the planet, weapons of nearly any sort, 24/7 torrents of air- and spaceborne intel, from FUKUS to Poland to Romania all powers involved.

Posted by: Leser | Oct 11 2023 21:06 utc | 110

bevin, too scents
The average soldier anywhere is fairly dumb. Try talking to American veterans. Ukraine has had a thirty year exodus of any with IQ above room temperature. A very high proportion of those with both a minimum of intelligence and any motivation to remain in 404 are nazis.
It is possible to get dumb people to do dumb things. I don’t see any bravery or fighting spirit from AFU. They stand in position and die. 500,000 of them.

Posted by: oldhippie | Oct 11 2023 21:07 utc | 111

bevin, too scents
The average soldier anywhere is fairly dumb. Try talking to American veterans. Ukraine has had a thirty year exodus of any with IQ above room temperature. A very high proportion of those with both a minimum of intelligence and any motivation to remain in 404 are nazis.
It is possible to get dumb people to do dumb things. I don’t see any bravery or fighting spirit from AFU. They stand in position and die. 500,000 of them.

Posted by: oldhippie | Oct 11 2023 21:07 utc | 112

John Kirby just said in the press briefing that US “is coming near the end of the rope” with Ukraine funding.
That is precisely what some have speculated, they will dump it onto EU, and if they insist wanting to fund the US portion, they will simply get crushed. It’s literally throwing money in the fireplace.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 11 2023 21:10 utc | 113

John Kirby just said in the press briefing that US “is coming near the end of the rope” with Ukraine funding.
That is precisely what some have speculated, they will dump it onto EU, and if they insist wanting to fund the US portion, they will simply get crushed. It’s literally throwing money in the fireplace.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 11 2023 21:10 utc | 114

Posted by: Colin | Oct 11 2023 20:34 utc | 52
i havent seen anybody opposing the US supporting the genocide in Palestine who claims to be pro Russia, the only one i’ve seen so far is the cartoon dawg, i think he claims to want the US out of Ukraine but loves US support for Israel. in any event, it shows what a hopeless farce the US trying to fight a 2 front war against Russia and China at the same time, it can’t support all its proxies. this US has bitten off more than it can chew, but it keeps ordering more food.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Oct 11 2023 21:52 utc | 115

Posted by: Colin | Oct 11 2023 20:34 utc | 52
i havent seen anybody opposing the US supporting the genocide in Palestine who claims to be pro Russia, the only one i’ve seen so far is the cartoon dawg, i think he claims to want the US out of Ukraine but loves US support for Israel. in any event, it shows what a hopeless farce the US trying to fight a 2 front war against Russia and China at the same time, it can’t support all its proxies. this US has bitten off more than it can chew, but it keeps ordering more food.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Oct 11 2023 21:52 utc | 116

Military summary report from Avdeevka.
RUAF bypassed Stepove from the north and moved west and managed to enter the village of Berdychi. They lost a few armored vehicles to ATGMs. But they seem to have foothold in the village.
In the south, RU advanced with relatively light resistance towards and to the east of Sieverne, cutting the road directly west out of Avdeevka. AFU managed to film an armored vehicle moving across the field but had nothing to hit it with. Later, RUAF destroyed the AFU camera that monitored activities from the top of a mast in Sieverne after which AFU side publications stopped.
RUAF also managed to expand their control west and north-west of Vodiane with only infantry. No resistance from indirect weapons. RU directed a lot of bomb strikes in this direction to ensure everything is clear, a hidden long-range Panzerhaubitse 2000 was found and hit. So we’ll see in the coming days the fate of the encirclement.
Inside Avdeevka, strangely enough there was a fuel tanker train which got hit. How it was there is a mystery, considering the rail is cut.
In Novomikhalovka, DRG has approached the village from the south along the road.
Rabotyne front is very low activity. RUAF bombs Novodanilovka, NE of Kopani.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 11 2023 22:03 utc | 117

Military summary report from Avdeevka.
RUAF bypassed Stepove from the north and moved west and managed to enter the village of Berdychi. They lost a few armored vehicles to ATGMs. But they seem to have foothold in the village.
In the south, RU advanced with relatively light resistance towards and to the east of Sieverne, cutting the road directly west out of Avdeevka. AFU managed to film an armored vehicle moving across the field but had nothing to hit it with. Later, RUAF destroyed the AFU camera that monitored activities from the top of a mast in Sieverne after which AFU side publications stopped.
RUAF also managed to expand their control west and north-west of Vodiane with only infantry. No resistance from indirect weapons. RU directed a lot of bomb strikes in this direction to ensure everything is clear, a hidden long-range Panzerhaubitse 2000 was found and hit. So we’ll see in the coming days the fate of the encirclement.
Inside Avdeevka, strangely enough there was a fuel tanker train which got hit. How it was there is a mystery, considering the rail is cut.
In Novomikhalovka, DRG has approached the village from the south along the road.
Rabotyne front is very low activity. RUAF bombs Novodanilovka, NE of Kopani.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 11 2023 22:03 utc | 118

If anyone told me when this began that Russia would still be attacking Avdiivka over 1.5 years into the war I wouldn’t believe them. That this is the case despite all those problems in the AFU makes it even more incredible.

Posted by: abel | Oct 11 2023 22:22 utc | 119

If anyone told me when this began that Russia would still be attacking Avdiivka over 1.5 years into the war I wouldn’t believe them. That this is the case despite all those problems in the AFU makes it even more incredible.

Posted by: abel | Oct 11 2023 22:22 utc | 120

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 11 2023 18:46 utc | 38
Thanks. I’m always suspicious when a long take cuts right before the payoff to the money shot. That happens very often in these videos.

Posted by: Robert E.Smith | Oct 11 2023 22:23 utc | 121

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 11 2023 18:46 utc | 38
Thanks. I’m always suspicious when a long take cuts right before the payoff to the money shot. That happens very often in these videos.

Posted by: Robert E.Smith | Oct 11 2023 22:23 utc | 122

Posted by: abel | Oct 11 2023 22:22 utc | 60
Well, they poured 8 years worth of high quality steel concrete in and around Avdeevka, making the place Maginot line on steroids. Not only the town but even the fields around it.
Meanwhile, they’ve taken pretty much everything else that’s important and as AFU wrecked itself in the spring counter-offensive and Bakhmut it’s probably less costly to take Avdeevka now.
Compared to if you didn’t defeat the bulk of AFU first and allowed it to populate all those forts in and around Avdeevka and its supply paths and simply take them head-on.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 11 2023 22:29 utc | 123

Posted by: abel | Oct 11 2023 22:22 utc | 60
Well, they poured 8 years worth of high quality steel concrete in and around Avdeevka, making the place Maginot line on steroids. Not only the town but even the fields around it.
Meanwhile, they’ve taken pretty much everything else that’s important and as AFU wrecked itself in the spring counter-offensive and Bakhmut it’s probably less costly to take Avdeevka now.
Compared to if you didn’t defeat the bulk of AFU first and allowed it to populate all those forts in and around Avdeevka and its supply paths and simply take them head-on.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 11 2023 22:29 utc | 124

Hey this is the 20-year-old Jew on the East Coast who’s a virgin that is also with the CIA and has a ghost friend and lives in America where d a w g is not slang and is apparently crazy according to all the Geniuses here.
How is your stupid circle jerk going? Anybody come yet?

Posted by: Depewty Dawg | Oct 11 2023 22:31 utc | 125

Hey this is the 20-year-old Jew on the East Coast who’s a virgin that is also with the CIA and has a ghost friend and lives in America where d a w g is not slang and is apparently crazy according to all the Geniuses here.
How is your stupid circle jerk going? Anybody come yet?

Posted by: Depewty Dawg | Oct 11 2023 22:31 utc | 126

Posted by: Depewty Dawg | Oct 11 2023 22:31 utc | 63
Discussion in here is legit. A lot of solid, precise fact and analysis. The best anywhere, especially now. So don’t bring that shit in here, please. Keep the circus stuff on the circus threads.

Posted by: Robert E.Smith | Oct 11 2023 22:47 utc | 127

Posted by: Depewty Dawg | Oct 11 2023 22:31 utc | 63
Discussion in here is legit. A lot of solid, precise fact and analysis. The best anywhere, especially now. So don’t bring that shit in here, please. Keep the circus stuff on the circus threads.

Posted by: Robert E.Smith | Oct 11 2023 22:47 utc | 128

Scale of the Russian assault:
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/45005

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 11 2023 23:29 utc | 129

Scale of the Russian assault:
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/45005

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 11 2023 23:29 utc | 130

A stock piece of war cheerleading which cannot even get its most important (titular!) toponym right.
A clear misundestanding of the modus operandi of a multiple rocket launcher, and what counter-battery or drones can or cannot do against it.
Writing “the Ukraine”, just as prescribed and admonished by the now retired Swiss Putinist in Chief.
A complete and presumably deliberate (given the unquestionable talent of the author) lack of political and historical perspective.
Yes. It is over for Ukraine. We have been constantly reading that for the last two years and now the time is probably coming.
But what does that mean for the general frame of the conflict?
And for the human beings over there?
It seems that we are not going to find too many insightful comments here…

Posted by: MoaMetal | Oct 11 2023 23:31 utc | 131

A stock piece of war cheerleading which cannot even get its most important (titular!) toponym right.
A clear misundestanding of the modus operandi of a multiple rocket launcher, and what counter-battery or drones can or cannot do against it.
Writing “the Ukraine”, just as prescribed and admonished by the now retired Swiss Putinist in Chief.
A complete and presumably deliberate (given the unquestionable talent of the author) lack of political and historical perspective.
Yes. It is over for Ukraine. We have been constantly reading that for the last two years and now the time is probably coming.
But what does that mean for the general frame of the conflict?
And for the human beings over there?
It seems that we are not going to find too many insightful comments here…

Posted by: MoaMetal | Oct 11 2023 23:31 utc | 132

Interesting. I would have thought that the Tornado-S would have been fitted with GLONASS and not GPS.

Posted by: Jeff Harrison | Oct 11 2023 23:40 utc | 133

Interesting. I would have thought that the Tornado-S would have been fitted with GLONASS and not GPS.

Posted by: Jeff Harrison | Oct 11 2023 23:40 utc | 134

I expect a slow encirclement of avdeevka rather than an assault. But if the field reports are true, this is a good start and makes a difficult situation for Ukrainian forces in the city.
Increasing pressure all along the front as fall passes into early winter makes a great deal of sense. Any dislodging of Ukrainian forces complicates repositioning. The question is whether Russia will exploit any breaks in the front or be content to consolidate those positions. I suspect they’ll consolidate rather than push hard.
A real question is to what degree the US was using its intelligence capacity for Ukraine and to what degree it will be needed for Israel. I’d imagine that Israel will want to know what’s going on from Egypt to Tehran. A reduction in US intelligence assistance to Ukraine would be incredibly devastating.

Posted by: Lex | Oct 12 2023 0:07 utc | 135

I expect a slow encirclement of avdeevka rather than an assault. But if the field reports are true, this is a good start and makes a difficult situation for Ukrainian forces in the city.
Increasing pressure all along the front as fall passes into early winter makes a great deal of sense. Any dislodging of Ukrainian forces complicates repositioning. The question is whether Russia will exploit any breaks in the front or be content to consolidate those positions. I suspect they’ll consolidate rather than push hard.
A real question is to what degree the US was using its intelligence capacity for Ukraine and to what degree it will be needed for Israel. I’d imagine that Israel will want to know what’s going on from Egypt to Tehran. A reduction in US intelligence assistance to Ukraine would be incredibly devastating.

Posted by: Lex | Oct 12 2023 0:07 utc | 136

Absolutely, the underground defense structure is surely formidable, but once Russian troops get to the outskirts of the town, how many defenders will want to recapitulate the doomed occupation of the Azovstal steel plant? Especially now with the AFU fighting from an inferior position, by every metric?
Also, I could see Russia being OK with just keeping the defenders bottled up underground, slowly but surely losing their health and morale, as long as they accomplished taking out all the long range offensive capabilities of the forces on the surface.
We’ve seen how Russia doesn’t interrupt Zelenskyy while he’s on a roll of doubling down on his mistakes, and I could see Russia holding back from taking on the bloody job of uprooting the defenders, as long as Zelenskyy refused to concede that their defeat was inevitable, and he insisted that aid and reinforcements continued to get shipped to the town, even though Russia chewed up all that relief, and from a safe distance.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 12 2023 0:20 utc | 137

Absolutely, the underground defense structure is surely formidable, but once Russian troops get to the outskirts of the town, how many defenders will want to recapitulate the doomed occupation of the Azovstal steel plant? Especially now with the AFU fighting from an inferior position, by every metric?
Also, I could see Russia being OK with just keeping the defenders bottled up underground, slowly but surely losing their health and morale, as long as they accomplished taking out all the long range offensive capabilities of the forces on the surface.
We’ve seen how Russia doesn’t interrupt Zelenskyy while he’s on a roll of doubling down on his mistakes, and I could see Russia holding back from taking on the bloody job of uprooting the defenders, as long as Zelenskyy refused to concede that their defeat was inevitable, and he insisted that aid and reinforcements continued to get shipped to the town, even though Russia chewed up all that relief, and from a safe distance.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 12 2023 0:20 utc | 138

Neutralize Ukie railways. That’s how Ukies transport most weapons and fighters. Civilians don’t travel much. Soviet Union has wasted so much on building airstrips and railways in Useless Ukraine.
Russia sent a dedicated Ukrainazistan monitoring satellite this year. Send another to reduce time lag between overhead passes.
Ukie fuel infrastructure must not be spared. It’s fully military used.

Posted by: Jason | Oct 12 2023 0:20 utc | 139

Neutralize Ukie railways. That’s how Ukies transport most weapons and fighters. Civilians don’t travel much. Soviet Union has wasted so much on building airstrips and railways in Useless Ukraine.
Russia sent a dedicated Ukrainazistan monitoring satellite this year. Send another to reduce time lag between overhead passes.
Ukie fuel infrastructure must not be spared. It’s fully military used.

Posted by: Jason | Oct 12 2023 0:20 utc | 140

“I would have thought that the Tornado-S would have been fitted with GLONASS and not GPS.”
It is. I think “GPS” was used in a generic English sense.
(But USA can’t stop anyone accessing GPS protocol. It is not device specific. Hamas used it too.)

Posted by: Jason | Oct 12 2023 0:25 utc | 141

“I would have thought that the Tornado-S would have been fitted with GLONASS and not GPS.”
It is. I think “GPS” was used in a generic English sense.
(But USA can’t stop anyone accessing GPS protocol. It is not device specific. Hamas used it too.)

Posted by: Jason | Oct 12 2023 0:25 utc | 142

Is it just me or is zelenski going to be rather butt hurt because the US is pivoting to the middle East again? Ukraine has pretty much dropped off the radar. Bummer.

Posted by: Immaculate deception | Oct 12 2023 0:46 utc | 143

Is it just me or is zelenski going to be rather butt hurt because the US is pivoting to the middle East again? Ukraine has pretty much dropped off the radar. Bummer.

Posted by: Immaculate deception | Oct 12 2023 0:46 utc | 144

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 11 2023 16:47 utc | 26
Well said, and interesting. Food for thought that had me thinking of a corollary to the AFU operating their vehicles in the mud, that now they will be leaving a trail when they move off to what cover remains, and unlike last muddy season, the Russians now have many, many, more drones to detect those tracks, and a better system of attacking tracked and wheeled vehicles that are hiding under cover.
With more infrared weapons, better optics, and more, well seasoned, analysts, with more computers to assist them, we could be seeing a whole different ball game from the last time the AFU played hide and seek with the Russian military. Also, an enormous amount of Ukraine’s best vehicles are at or near a fairly narrow front line, albeit that it’s extremely long.
And I’m very curious as to whether or not Russia’s satellite based surveillance system has taken it up a notch with its ability to process the data coming from those satellites. Like in Blade Runner, where Harrison Ford mutters “enhance”, I can readily imagine Russian satellite sourced intelligence, processed by newly online computational resources, leaving the AFU with far fewer secrets that they can conceal.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 12 2023 0:48 utc | 145

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 11 2023 16:47 utc | 26
Well said, and interesting. Food for thought that had me thinking of a corollary to the AFU operating their vehicles in the mud, that now they will be leaving a trail when they move off to what cover remains, and unlike last muddy season, the Russians now have many, many, more drones to detect those tracks, and a better system of attacking tracked and wheeled vehicles that are hiding under cover.
With more infrared weapons, better optics, and more, well seasoned, analysts, with more computers to assist them, we could be seeing a whole different ball game from the last time the AFU played hide and seek with the Russian military. Also, an enormous amount of Ukraine’s best vehicles are at or near a fairly narrow front line, albeit that it’s extremely long.
And I’m very curious as to whether or not Russia’s satellite based surveillance system has taken it up a notch with its ability to process the data coming from those satellites. Like in Blade Runner, where Harrison Ford mutters “enhance”, I can readily imagine Russian satellite sourced intelligence, processed by newly online computational resources, leaving the AFU with far fewer secrets that they can conceal.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 12 2023 0:48 utc | 146

Riders on the storm. Into this house we’re born. Like a dog without a bone, actors out on loan. Riders on the storm. Yeah.

Posted by: Immaculate deception | Oct 12 2023 0:51 utc | 147

Riders on the storm. Into this house we’re born. Like a dog without a bone, actors out on loan. Riders on the storm. Yeah.

Posted by: Immaculate deception | Oct 12 2023 0:51 utc | 148

“There’s a killer on the road.” Jim Morrison got that right, he understood the lingering collective guilt of America for its injustices to Native Americans, and how it clouded our collective subconscious. A nation that doesn’t resolve an ancient evil is condemned to keep producing murderers, and other aberrations.
I was still speaking of America, and hadn’t moved on to Israel, though I can see how you’d think I had.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 12 2023 1:14 utc | 149

“There’s a killer on the road.” Jim Morrison got that right, he understood the lingering collective guilt of America for its injustices to Native Americans, and how it clouded our collective subconscious. A nation that doesn’t resolve an ancient evil is condemned to keep producing murderers, and other aberrations.
I was still speaking of America, and hadn’t moved on to Israel, though I can see how you’d think I had.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 12 2023 1:14 utc | 150

https://t.me/c/1598473749/122648

⚡The landfill in the area of the Avdiivka coke plant was completely cleared by the forces of 114 omsbr, part of the enemy forces defending the landfill retreated to the AKKhZ, part was destroyed — NGP raZVedka
At the moment, our people have secured their positions and are preparing for further work.
One of the most important strategic points has fallen.
This is the strongest blow for the enemy, including moral.
Iron men serve in the Armed Forces of Russia!


This is at an elevation which commands Avdeevka, so this is a double disaster for the Ukranazis.
I don’t think there will be another Artëmovsk style months long battle.
1. Ukranazistan is much weaker now Ruabon 10 months ago, including in trained manpower.
2. Russia has finally sorted out the FAB and drone bottlenecks.
3. Amerikastan is incapable of supplying both its Ukranazi puppets and its zionistani masters simultaneously and
4. These are Russian regular troops, not Wagner, so the mutual suspicion and supply/coordination problems of Artëmovsk will be absent.
Which is not to say Ukranazistan will abandon Avdeevka relatively quickly like Lisichansk or Soledar, but even if it tries its hardest it cannot do another Artëmovsk.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Oct 12 2023 1:32 utc | 151

https://t.me/c/1598473749/122648

⚡The landfill in the area of the Avdiivka coke plant was completely cleared by the forces of 114 omsbr, part of the enemy forces defending the landfill retreated to the AKKhZ, part was destroyed — NGP raZVedka
At the moment, our people have secured their positions and are preparing for further work.
One of the most important strategic points has fallen.
This is the strongest blow for the enemy, including moral.
Iron men serve in the Armed Forces of Russia!


This is at an elevation which commands Avdeevka, so this is a double disaster for the Ukranazis.
I don’t think there will be another Artëmovsk style months long battle.
1. Ukranazistan is much weaker now Ruabon 10 months ago, including in trained manpower.
2. Russia has finally sorted out the FAB and drone bottlenecks.
3. Amerikastan is incapable of supplying both its Ukranazi puppets and its zionistani masters simultaneously and
4. These are Russian regular troops, not Wagner, so the mutual suspicion and supply/coordination problems of Artëmovsk will be absent.
Which is not to say Ukranazistan will abandon Avdeevka relatively quickly like Lisichansk or Soledar, but even if it tries its hardest it cannot do another Artëmovsk.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Oct 12 2023 1:32 utc | 152

Some videos for today.
Kiev regime forces lost three more US-supplied MaxxPro armored vehicles near Donetsk:
https://odysee.com/@YuBratNavas:f/VID_20231012_012643_493:9
Russian troops clearing out enemy firing positions near Kupyansk:
https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/5222376409728:7
Another Kiev regime Su-25 got shot down on the Zaporozhye front:
https://odysee.com/@YuBratNavas:f/VID_20231011_230650_122:8
Russian Grad MLRS pounds enemy position near Krasny Liman:
https://rutube.ru/video/47a804a1feacb361b2938e54ab385c0f/
Russian artillery strikes enemy trench:
https://rutube.ru/video/d5400c1522f3f883ada01c87b8503e38/
Russian Su-25 conducts airstrike near Donetsk:
https://rutube.ru/video/7561aeeebc3ad8f7d8b18fb0dd35967e/

Posted by: Nate | Oct 12 2023 1:38 utc | 153

Some videos for today.
Kiev regime forces lost three more US-supplied MaxxPro armored vehicles near Donetsk:
https://odysee.com/@YuBratNavas:f/VID_20231012_012643_493:9
Russian troops clearing out enemy firing positions near Kupyansk:
https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/5222376409728:7
Another Kiev regime Su-25 got shot down on the Zaporozhye front:
https://odysee.com/@YuBratNavas:f/VID_20231011_230650_122:8
Russian Grad MLRS pounds enemy position near Krasny Liman:
https://rutube.ru/video/47a804a1feacb361b2938e54ab385c0f/
Russian artillery strikes enemy trench:
https://rutube.ru/video/d5400c1522f3f883ada01c87b8503e38/
Russian Su-25 conducts airstrike near Donetsk:
https://rutube.ru/video/7561aeeebc3ad8f7d8b18fb0dd35967e/

Posted by: Nate | Oct 12 2023 1:38 utc | 154

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 11 2023 21:10 utc | 57
TWIN EVIL FULL MONTY!
Sssullivan, 10 Oct
Kirby-content, 11 Oct

Posted by: sln2002 | Oct 12 2023 1:42 utc | 155

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 11 2023 21:10 utc | 57
TWIN EVIL FULL MONTY!
Sssullivan, 10 Oct
Kirby-content, 11 Oct

Posted by: sln2002 | Oct 12 2023 1:42 utc | 156

pretzelattack | Oct 11 2023 20:24 utc | 50
*** the US propaganda press has always loved using babies to sell wars, from Huns bayoneting babies to Iraqis dumping incubator babies to Russians raping babies to now the evil Hamas hordes decapitating babies.***
Same in the UK. Makes one wonder about the mentality and fantasies (hope they don’t take it beyond that) of ‘journalists’, editors and spin-doctors who concoct the guff …. they seem to have an obsession that would best be restrained within a secure institution, to protect the public.

Posted by: Cynic | Oct 12 2023 2:01 utc | 157

pretzelattack | Oct 11 2023 20:24 utc | 50
*** the US propaganda press has always loved using babies to sell wars, from Huns bayoneting babies to Iraqis dumping incubator babies to Russians raping babies to now the evil Hamas hordes decapitating babies.***
Same in the UK. Makes one wonder about the mentality and fantasies (hope they don’t take it beyond that) of ‘journalists’, editors and spin-doctors who concoct the guff …. they seem to have an obsession that would best be restrained within a secure institution, to protect the public.

Posted by: Cynic | Oct 12 2023 2:01 utc | 158

SouthFront has a piece up “Russia Achieved Strategic Gains On The Second Day Of Offensive Around Avdeevka” with a video of the oil tankers burning in which you can see several other trains parked on adjacent tracks. Interesting that they were unharmed and indicating a very selective strike and likely not with a glide bomb. @Petri Krohn | Oct 11 2023 16:01 utc | 23 says many civilians still there – I find it hard to believe there are still a significant number of neutral people still there as it has been a military stronghold for so long, but it will be interesting to see how the offensive proceeds. Not sure how the high rise apartment blocks and the industrial zone can be cleared without the kind of destruction there was in Mariupol, if not Bakhmut. Maybe they will just surrender, but I doubt it as they have been shelling the civilians for 10 years…
The SouthFront article also has videos of columns of Russian armor headed to the front seemingly without fear of artillery or drone strikes – maybe it was shot quite a ways in the rear.

Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 12 2023 2:19 utc | 159

SouthFront has a piece up “Russia Achieved Strategic Gains On The Second Day Of Offensive Around Avdeevka” with a video of the oil tankers burning in which you can see several other trains parked on adjacent tracks. Interesting that they were unharmed and indicating a very selective strike and likely not with a glide bomb. @Petri Krohn | Oct 11 2023 16:01 utc | 23 says many civilians still there – I find it hard to believe there are still a significant number of neutral people still there as it has been a military stronghold for so long, but it will be interesting to see how the offensive proceeds. Not sure how the high rise apartment blocks and the industrial zone can be cleared without the kind of destruction there was in Mariupol, if not Bakhmut. Maybe they will just surrender, but I doubt it as they have been shelling the civilians for 10 years…
The SouthFront article also has videos of columns of Russian armor headed to the front seemingly without fear of artillery or drone strikes – maybe it was shot quite a ways in the rear.

Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 12 2023 2:19 utc | 160

Posted by: Cynic | Oct 12 2023 2:01 utc | 79
Don’t forget the nuns.
I admit particularly annoys me, the debased imaginations of the propagandists. You can identify them by that alone. No need to listen further.
And then they want to blather on about being “civilized”.

Posted by: Bemildred | Oct 12 2023 2:30 utc | 161

Posted by: Cynic | Oct 12 2023 2:01 utc | 79
Don’t forget the nuns.
I admit particularly annoys me, the debased imaginations of the propagandists. You can identify them by that alone. No need to listen further.
And then they want to blather on about being “civilized”.

Posted by: Bemildred | Oct 12 2023 2:30 utc | 162

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation
(11 October 2023)
Part I (Part II (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/10241))
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
▫️In Kupyansk direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/31370), units of the Zapad Group of Forces supported by aviation and artillery repelled 10 counter-attacks of assault detachments of the AFU 32nd, 115th mechanised and 10th Mountain Assault Brigade close to Ivanovka, Sinkovka (Kharkov region), Makeyevka (Lugansk People’s Republic), and improved the tactical situation at the forward lines.
▫️The enemy lost up to 280 Ukrainian troops killed and wounded, one tank, and two motor vehicles.
▫️In addition, in the course of counterbattery warfare, one U.S.-made M777 artillery system, one Polish-made Krab self-propelled artillery howitzer, and one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery howitzer were neutralised.
▫️One ammunition depot of foreign mercenaries was destroyed close to Volchansk (Kharkov region).
▫️In Krasny Liman direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/31371), units of the Tsentr Group of Forces, helicopters, artillery, and heavy flamethrower systems repelled two attacks of assault detachments of the AFU 67th Mechanised Brigade near Serebryanskoye forestry.
▫️In addition, strikes were delivered at manpower and hardware of the AFU 12th Azov Special Operations Brigade, 63rd Mechanised Brigade, and 5th National Guard Brigade south of Kuzmino, Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People’s Republic) and Torskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).The enemy lost up to 65 Ukrainian troops and two pickup trucks.
▫️In the course of counter-battery warfare, the Russian troops hit one French-made Caezar self-propelled howitzer, three Msta-S self-propelled artillery systems, one Akatsiya and one Gvozdika self-propelled howitzers, one D-30 howitzer, as well as one Czech-made RM-70 Vampire MLRS.
▫️In Donetsk direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/31372), units of the Yug Group of Forces supported by aviation, artillery, and heavy flamethrower systems improved the tactical situation at the forward lines close to Avdeyevka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
▫️In addition, as a result of strikes at reserves of the AFU 31st Mechanised Brigade near Ocheretino (Donetsk People’s Republic) the enemy lost up to 90 Ukrainian troops killed and wounded, as well as 10 U.S.-made MaxxPro armoured motor vehicles.
▫️The total enemy loses in this direction over the past 24 hours amounted to 330 Ukranian troops killed and wounded, one tank, 11 armoured personnel carriers, four armoured fighting vehicles, and three motor vehicles.
▫️Two Polish-made Krab self-propelled artillery systems and one D-20 howitzer were neutralised during counter-battery warfare.
▫️One ammunition depot of the AFU 110th Mechanised Brigade has been destroyed close to Orlovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
(11 October 2023)
Part II (Part I (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/10240))
▫️ In South Donetsk direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/31373), units of the Vostok Group of Forces, helicoptes, and artillery inflicted loses on manpower and hardware of the AFU 72nd Mechanised Brigade and 128th Territorial Defence Brigade near Ugledar and Vodyanoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
▫️The AFU losses have amounted to up to 155 Ukrainian troops and four motor vehicles.
▫️In the course of counter-battery warfare, the Russian troops neutralised one U.S.-made M777 artillery system, one U.S.-made M109 Paladin howitzer, one UK-made FH70 howitzer, two Msta-S self-propelled artillery systems, and one Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer.
▫️In Zaporozhye direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/31374), two AFU attacks northwest of Verbovoye (Zaporozhye region) were repelled by actions of the Russian Group of Forces units, air strikes, and artillery fire.
▫️Up to 20 Ukrainian troops, one tank, two motor vehicles, one U.S.-made M777 artillery system, as well as one D-20 howitzer were neutralised.
▫️In Kherson direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/31374), up to 45 Ukrainian troops, 11 motor vehicles, one U.S.-made M777 artillery system, and one D-20 howitzer have been destroyed.
▫️In addition, one U.S.-made AN/TPQ-36 counterbattery warfare radar was destroyed near Pridneprovskoye (Kherson region).
▫️Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, and Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces have engaged AFU manpower and hardware in 127 areas during the day.
▫️One MiG-25 fighter jets of the Ukrainian Air Force was destroyed at the Dolgintsevo airfield (Dnepropetrovsk region).
▫️In addition, one ST-68U radar station for the detection, identification, and tracking of aerial targets was destroyed close to Malovarvarovka (Nikolayev region).
▫️Air defence systems have intercepted three JDAM guided bombs, seven HARM anti-radiation missiles, and four U.S.-made HIMARS MLRS projectiles during the day.
▫️Moreover, 41 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were shot down close to Romanovskoye, Ocheretovatoye, Ilchenkovo (Zaporozhye region), Vasilieyvka, Peschanovka (Kherson region), Paraskoveyevka, Kirillovka, Artyomovsk, Nikolayevka, Peski (Donetsk People’s Republic), Ploshchanka and Novodruzhesk (Lugansk People’s Republic).
📊 In total, 488 airplanes and 250 helicopters, 7,709 unmanned aerial vehicles, 441 air defence missile systems, 12,496 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,162 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 6,723 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 14,064 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.
Source: Geroman

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 12 2023 2:43 utc | 163

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation
(11 October 2023)
Part I (Part II (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/10241))
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
▫️In Kupyansk direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/31370), units of the Zapad Group of Forces supported by aviation and artillery repelled 10 counter-attacks of assault detachments of the AFU 32nd, 115th mechanised and 10th Mountain Assault Brigade close to Ivanovka, Sinkovka (Kharkov region), Makeyevka (Lugansk People’s Republic), and improved the tactical situation at the forward lines.
▫️The enemy lost up to 280 Ukrainian troops killed and wounded, one tank, and two motor vehicles.
▫️In addition, in the course of counterbattery warfare, one U.S.-made M777 artillery system, one Polish-made Krab self-propelled artillery howitzer, and one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery howitzer were neutralised.
▫️One ammunition depot of foreign mercenaries was destroyed close to Volchansk (Kharkov region).
▫️In Krasny Liman direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/31371), units of the Tsentr Group of Forces, helicopters, artillery, and heavy flamethrower systems repelled two attacks of assault detachments of the AFU 67th Mechanised Brigade near Serebryanskoye forestry.
▫️In addition, strikes were delivered at manpower and hardware of the AFU 12th Azov Special Operations Brigade, 63rd Mechanised Brigade, and 5th National Guard Brigade south of Kuzmino, Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People’s Republic) and Torskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).The enemy lost up to 65 Ukrainian troops and two pickup trucks.
▫️In the course of counter-battery warfare, the Russian troops hit one French-made Caezar self-propelled howitzer, three Msta-S self-propelled artillery systems, one Akatsiya and one Gvozdika self-propelled howitzers, one D-30 howitzer, as well as one Czech-made RM-70 Vampire MLRS.
▫️In Donetsk direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/31372), units of the Yug Group of Forces supported by aviation, artillery, and heavy flamethrower systems improved the tactical situation at the forward lines close to Avdeyevka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
▫️In addition, as a result of strikes at reserves of the AFU 31st Mechanised Brigade near Ocheretino (Donetsk People’s Republic) the enemy lost up to 90 Ukrainian troops killed and wounded, as well as 10 U.S.-made MaxxPro armoured motor vehicles.
▫️The total enemy loses in this direction over the past 24 hours amounted to 330 Ukranian troops killed and wounded, one tank, 11 armoured personnel carriers, four armoured fighting vehicles, and three motor vehicles.
▫️Two Polish-made Krab self-propelled artillery systems and one D-20 howitzer were neutralised during counter-battery warfare.
▫️One ammunition depot of the AFU 110th Mechanised Brigade has been destroyed close to Orlovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
(11 October 2023)
Part II (Part I (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/10240))
▫️ In South Donetsk direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/31373), units of the Vostok Group of Forces, helicoptes, and artillery inflicted loses on manpower and hardware of the AFU 72nd Mechanised Brigade and 128th Territorial Defence Brigade near Ugledar and Vodyanoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
▫️The AFU losses have amounted to up to 155 Ukrainian troops and four motor vehicles.
▫️In the course of counter-battery warfare, the Russian troops neutralised one U.S.-made M777 artillery system, one U.S.-made M109 Paladin howitzer, one UK-made FH70 howitzer, two Msta-S self-propelled artillery systems, and one Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer.
▫️In Zaporozhye direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/31374), two AFU attacks northwest of Verbovoye (Zaporozhye region) were repelled by actions of the Russian Group of Forces units, air strikes, and artillery fire.
▫️Up to 20 Ukrainian troops, one tank, two motor vehicles, one U.S.-made M777 artillery system, as well as one D-20 howitzer were neutralised.
▫️In Kherson direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/31374), up to 45 Ukrainian troops, 11 motor vehicles, one U.S.-made M777 artillery system, and one D-20 howitzer have been destroyed.
▫️In addition, one U.S.-made AN/TPQ-36 counterbattery warfare radar was destroyed near Pridneprovskoye (Kherson region).
▫️Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, and Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces have engaged AFU manpower and hardware in 127 areas during the day.
▫️One MiG-25 fighter jets of the Ukrainian Air Force was destroyed at the Dolgintsevo airfield (Dnepropetrovsk region).
▫️In addition, one ST-68U radar station for the detection, identification, and tracking of aerial targets was destroyed close to Malovarvarovka (Nikolayev region).
▫️Air defence systems have intercepted three JDAM guided bombs, seven HARM anti-radiation missiles, and four U.S.-made HIMARS MLRS projectiles during the day.
▫️Moreover, 41 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were shot down close to Romanovskoye, Ocheretovatoye, Ilchenkovo (Zaporozhye region), Vasilieyvka, Peschanovka (Kherson region), Paraskoveyevka, Kirillovka, Artyomovsk, Nikolayevka, Peski (Donetsk People’s Republic), Ploshchanka and Novodruzhesk (Lugansk People’s Republic).
📊 In total, 488 airplanes and 250 helicopters, 7,709 unmanned aerial vehicles, 441 air defence missile systems, 12,496 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,162 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 6,723 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 14,064 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.
Source: Geroman

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 12 2023 2:43 utc | 164

A real question is to what degree the US was using its intelligence capacity for Ukraine and to what degree it will be needed for Israel. I’d imagine that Israel will want to know what’s going on from Egypt to Tehran. A reduction in US intelligence assistance to Ukraine would be incredibly devastating.
Posted by: Lex | Oct 12 2023 0:07 utc | 68
————————————————————–
My sentiments exactly. When I was informed by one of our fellow barflies that a SEAL team is considered for freeing hostages in Gaza or elsehwere, I was reminded of the live satellite coverage of the Osama Bin Laden takedown. In Northern Virginia, not too far from IAD, is the control over US saellite positioning. There is a room with a view and I knew someone who was there, then. I have been on the compound. The WH basement also offers viewing opportunities and my best guess is that neither DoD nor NSA would do without.
My best guess is for, after repositioning, non-stop satellite coverage of that little piece of the ME with real-time analysis by humans.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 12 2023 2:56 utc | 165

A real question is to what degree the US was using its intelligence capacity for Ukraine and to what degree it will be needed for Israel. I’d imagine that Israel will want to know what’s going on from Egypt to Tehran. A reduction in US intelligence assistance to Ukraine would be incredibly devastating.
Posted by: Lex | Oct 12 2023 0:07 utc | 68
————————————————————–
My sentiments exactly. When I was informed by one of our fellow barflies that a SEAL team is considered for freeing hostages in Gaza or elsehwere, I was reminded of the live satellite coverage of the Osama Bin Laden takedown. In Northern Virginia, not too far from IAD, is the control over US saellite positioning. There is a room with a view and I knew someone who was there, then. I have been on the compound. The WH basement also offers viewing opportunities and my best guess is that neither DoD nor NSA would do without.
My best guess is for, after repositioning, non-stop satellite coverage of that little piece of the ME with real-time analysis by humans.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 12 2023 2:56 utc | 166

Posted by: Chris Cosmos | Oct 11 2023 16:34 utc | 25
The following reasons seem sufficient to me:
– Russia is conducting a limited engagement SMO giving the UA army greater leeway with logistics, infrastructure, information control than an invading army would normally allow
– UA is backed with considerable NATO support through supplies, training, intelligence
– UA has full support of the entire western / global financial infrastructure; allowing them to redirect a very large part of the civilian economy and population to the war effort heedless of waste. (I don’t think the Russian army in the SMO zone yet outnumbers Ukrainians)
– UA defensive positions have been prepared for 9 years
It’s difficult to characterize Ukraine as the underdog here.

Posted by: Browser | Oct 12 2023 5:54 utc | 167

Posted by: Chris Cosmos | Oct 11 2023 16:34 utc | 25
The following reasons seem sufficient to me:
– Russia is conducting a limited engagement SMO giving the UA army greater leeway with logistics, infrastructure, information control than an invading army would normally allow
– UA is backed with considerable NATO support through supplies, training, intelligence
– UA has full support of the entire western / global financial infrastructure; allowing them to redirect a very large part of the civilian economy and population to the war effort heedless of waste. (I don’t think the Russian army in the SMO zone yet outnumbers Ukrainians)
– UA defensive positions have been prepared for 9 years
It’s difficult to characterize Ukraine as the underdog here.

Posted by: Browser | Oct 12 2023 5:54 utc | 168

A stock piece of war cheerleading which cannot even get its most important (titular!) toponym right.
A clear misundestanding of the modus operandi of a multiple rocket launcher, and what counter-battery or drones can or cannot do against it.
Writing “the Ukraine”, just as prescribed and admonished by the now retired Swiss Putinist in Chief.
A complete and presumably deliberate (given the unquestionable talent of the author) lack of political and historical perspective.
Yes. It is over for Ukraine. We have been constantly reading that for the last two years and now the time is probably coming.
But what does that mean for the general frame of the conflict?
And for the human beings over there?
It seems that we are not going to find too many insightful comments here…
Posted by: MoaMetal | Oct 11 2023 23:31 utc | 66

Thank you so much for this cleverly crafted insight and helpful contribution. I had to slog through 5 incomplete sentences before you stumbled upon the grammatically correct statement “It is over for Ukraine.”
10,000 monkeys banging away on typewriters will eventually produce Shakespeare plays.

Posted by: retroflecks | Oct 12 2023 6:15 utc | 169

A stock piece of war cheerleading which cannot even get its most important (titular!) toponym right.
A clear misundestanding of the modus operandi of a multiple rocket launcher, and what counter-battery or drones can or cannot do against it.
Writing “the Ukraine”, just as prescribed and admonished by the now retired Swiss Putinist in Chief.
A complete and presumably deliberate (given the unquestionable talent of the author) lack of political and historical perspective.
Yes. It is over for Ukraine. We have been constantly reading that for the last two years and now the time is probably coming.
But what does that mean for the general frame of the conflict?
And for the human beings over there?
It seems that we are not going to find too many insightful comments here…
Posted by: MoaMetal | Oct 11 2023 23:31 utc | 66

Thank you so much for this cleverly crafted insight and helpful contribution. I had to slog through 5 incomplete sentences before you stumbled upon the grammatically correct statement “It is over for Ukraine.”
10,000 monkeys banging away on typewriters will eventually produce Shakespeare plays.

Posted by: retroflecks | Oct 12 2023 6:15 utc | 170

Putin must declare Israel an enemy state. Many in the Russian believe it to be so already anyway. I disagree that Israel has anything that Russia needs. Full support must be given to Iran and to Hezbollah and to Hamas.
The Arab world must be supported fully to rise up against its U.S. oppressors – the very heart of which site in the illegally occupied Tel Aviv.

Posted by: Night Tripper | Oct 12 2023 6:40 utc | 171

Putin must declare Israel an enemy state. Many in the Russian believe it to be so already anyway. I disagree that Israel has anything that Russia needs. Full support must be given to Iran and to Hezbollah and to Hamas.
The Arab world must be supported fully to rise up against its U.S. oppressors – the very heart of which site in the illegally occupied Tel Aviv.

Posted by: Night Tripper | Oct 12 2023 6:40 utc | 172

“It is over for Ukraine.”
While grammatically correct, this statement has been true for quite a while, yet it will still take quite a while to be completed.
To summarize the current situation for those coming late:
Facing flagging Nielson ratings: the orchestrated genocide and ethnic cleansing of Slavic peoples North of the Black Sea has been shifted to a less favorable time-slot.
The Corporation responsible for this and many other atrocities is instead bringing out a new Season of “Ethnic Cleansing in Caanan”. Viewer polling suggested greater support for War Crimes and attempted genocide against browner peoples and children.
(sad sarcasm)
(Thank you, b, for keeping this thread open during the attempted Memory-Hole. Thank you for hosting the Palestine thread also. I wish both were unnecessary.)

Posted by: retroflecks | Oct 12 2023 6:41 utc | 173

“It is over for Ukraine.”
While grammatically correct, this statement has been true for quite a while, yet it will still take quite a while to be completed.
To summarize the current situation for those coming late:
Facing flagging Nielson ratings: the orchestrated genocide and ethnic cleansing of Slavic peoples North of the Black Sea has been shifted to a less favorable time-slot.
The Corporation responsible for this and many other atrocities is instead bringing out a new Season of “Ethnic Cleansing in Caanan”. Viewer polling suggested greater support for War Crimes and attempted genocide against browner peoples and children.
(sad sarcasm)
(Thank you, b, for keeping this thread open during the attempted Memory-Hole. Thank you for hosting the Palestine thread also. I wish both were unnecessary.)

Posted by: retroflecks | Oct 12 2023 6:41 utc | 174

It seems that we are not going to find too many insightful comments here…
Posted by: MoaMetal | Oct 11 2023 23:31 utc | 66
………………………………..
May I disagree?
“b’s” articles are key to following the war in Ukraine. On top of that a team of commenters who know what’s what and follow every twist and turn. You’d have to follow the press and internet full time to get the picture otherwise. Even then you’d miss a lot.
On the overall picture the time is long past for “insightful comments”. The Russians will absorb such of the old Party of Regions area as they think suitable and will neutralise the rest. That’s been apparent at least since the breakdown of the Istanbul talks. Probably since February 21st 2022.
It’s interesting watching them do it – and heart-breaking watching us in the West sacrificing our proxies in the process – but barring nuclear that’s how it will go.
Where the picture is still unclear is on what happens afterwards. Will the Russians return to their 2021 European Security demands? What means will they employ to get those demands met?
My maybe not very insightful guess is that they will simply let supply contracts with the EU run out if those demands are not met. Yours?

Posted by: English Outsider | Oct 12 2023 15:47 utc | 175

It seems that we are not going to find too many insightful comments here…
Posted by: MoaMetal | Oct 11 2023 23:31 utc | 66
………………………………..
May I disagree?
“b’s” articles are key to following the war in Ukraine. On top of that a team of commenters who know what’s what and follow every twist and turn. You’d have to follow the press and internet full time to get the picture otherwise. Even then you’d miss a lot.
On the overall picture the time is long past for “insightful comments”. The Russians will absorb such of the old Party of Regions area as they think suitable and will neutralise the rest. That’s been apparent at least since the breakdown of the Istanbul talks. Probably since February 21st 2022.
It’s interesting watching them do it – and heart-breaking watching us in the West sacrificing our proxies in the process – but barring nuclear that’s how it will go.
Where the picture is still unclear is on what happens afterwards. Will the Russians return to their 2021 European Security demands? What means will they employ to get those demands met?
My maybe not very insightful guess is that they will simply let supply contracts with the EU run out if those demands are not met. Yours?

Posted by: English Outsider | Oct 12 2023 15:47 utc | 176

Not sure this is the prelude of a great offensive in October. Rasputitsa is coming.
More likely, this is a horse d’oeuvre for the main dish coming in winter, when the ground is suitably frozen.

Posted by: Alexander P | Oct 12 2023 16:08 utc | 177

Not sure this is the prelude of a great offensive in October. Rasputitsa is coming.
More likely, this is a horse d’oeuvre for the main dish coming in winter, when the ground is suitably frozen.

Posted by: Alexander P | Oct 12 2023 16:08 utc | 178

@English Outsider #88
About this website, you are certainly correct on a general basis, but this particular article, with its obvious lack of basic proofreading, appeared just sloppy and unnecessary.
My comment was probably too harsh (given the many valuable contributions that the author regularly offers), but especially that certain “the Ukraine” passage, though probably a random occurrence, reminded me of a really disgraceful person.
You are possibly right about the scarcely reversible “inertia” of certain processes, but all these general geopolitic/ power balance/ “realistic” (á la Mearsheimer so to speak) approaches leave me deeply unconvinced.
They seem just too easy…
In any case I lack the expertise to discuss them on a serious level.
I am more concerned about the lack of genuine political culture which plagues, as paradoxical mirror images, both Russia and Western Europe.
In the case of Russia, this is compounded by the already very serious effects of the isolation, for example in the scientific fields which I know more closely.
It is a partly self-inflicted decline, against which the absorption of this or that Oblast seems a really minor issue…

Posted by: MoaMetal | Oct 12 2023 17:09 utc | 179

@English Outsider #88
About this website, you are certainly correct on a general basis, but this particular article, with its obvious lack of basic proofreading, appeared just sloppy and unnecessary.
My comment was probably too harsh (given the many valuable contributions that the author regularly offers), but especially that certain “the Ukraine” passage, though probably a random occurrence, reminded me of a really disgraceful person.
You are possibly right about the scarcely reversible “inertia” of certain processes, but all these general geopolitic/ power balance/ “realistic” (á la Mearsheimer so to speak) approaches leave me deeply unconvinced.
They seem just too easy…
In any case I lack the expertise to discuss them on a serious level.
I am more concerned about the lack of genuine political culture which plagues, as paradoxical mirror images, both Russia and Western Europe.
In the case of Russia, this is compounded by the already very serious effects of the isolation, for example in the scientific fields which I know more closely.
It is a partly self-inflicted decline, against which the absorption of this or that Oblast seems a really minor issue…

Posted by: MoaMetal | Oct 12 2023 17:09 utc | 180

Posted by: MoaMetal | Oct 12 2023 17:09 utc | 90
………………….
Should say that as far as I know “The Ukraine”, with the definite article, was common usage until recently. Prit Buttar, in his study of the fighting in 1943 on the Eastern Front, uses it regularly. That was published in 2019. It now carries political overtones but I’d say for many of us it’s still just a matter of usage.
Terms like “The SMO” or “The Revolution of Dignity” also carry a massive overburden of implied political judgement. One has to be aware of the implications of using such terms. But one is also entitled, perhaps, to refuse to be tied down to this or that position by those implications.
On more serious matters, you sure that the Russians are “isolated”? I suspect we in the West are about to find out that we are.

Posted by: English Outsider | Oct 12 2023 20:22 utc | 181

Posted by: MoaMetal | Oct 12 2023 17:09 utc | 90
………………….
Should say that as far as I know “The Ukraine”, with the definite article, was common usage until recently. Prit Buttar, in his study of the fighting in 1943 on the Eastern Front, uses it regularly. That was published in 2019. It now carries political overtones but I’d say for many of us it’s still just a matter of usage.
Terms like “The SMO” or “The Revolution of Dignity” also carry a massive overburden of implied political judgement. One has to be aware of the implications of using such terms. But one is also entitled, perhaps, to refuse to be tied down to this or that position by those implications.
On more serious matters, you sure that the Russians are “isolated”? I suspect we in the West are about to find out that we are.

Posted by: English Outsider | Oct 12 2023 20:22 utc | 182

It looks like RU used white phosphorous last night against military targets in Andvika.
Cue western nabobs to cry war crimes…
Uh oh, they can’t. Israel is using the same bombs against civilians in Gaza.

Posted by: scepticalSOB | Oct 13 2023 10:03 utc | 183

It looks like RU used white phosphorous last night against military targets in Andvika.
Cue western nabobs to cry war crimes…
Uh oh, they can’t. Israel is using the same bombs against civilians in Gaza.

Posted by: scepticalSOB | Oct 13 2023 10:03 utc | 184