The Russian military has launched small attacks along the whole frontline. A major effort is made near Andivka which yesterday was bombed to smithereens:
The headline reads “RF Army has delivered a blow of previously unseen might against the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU)”. What they are describing is an aerial bombing of Avdeevka, the heavily fortified Ukrainian town 14 kilometers away from Donetsk city, which is an urban center of more than a million inhabitants and capital of the Donbas oblast (region) of the same name. Donetsk city has been struck by missiles and artillery shells launched from Avdeevka on a daily basis from the time before the Special Military Operation, and with ever greater intensity during the SMO. Video images of destroyed homes and apartment buildings have appeared on Russian evening news together casualty figures and the testimony of victims.
The attack on Avdeevka came early in the morning when the Ukrainians were attempting to carry out a rotation of their troops. Eyewitnesses said that “the earth shook” in the whole area as a result of the bombing.
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The bombing of Avdeevka today, like the reported destruction of a major Ukrainian command post by 1.5 ton bombs a couple of days ago, would suggest the “softening up” phase before a major ground offensive.
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Since 2014 the Ukrainian military had made Andivka into a fortress. It requires big bombs to break its bunkers.
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That something important was coming up could be seen it the recent Daily Reports by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
The ones put out on the 8th, 9th and 10th of October showed relatively few Ukrainian casualties (655, 630, 580) and a reduced counter artillery campaign with only 6, 7 and 8 Ukrainian guns hit on those days. It was a sign that something was coming up.
Today's report, which includes the numbers from yesterday's campaign against Andivka and other places show high Ukrainian casualty numbers (895) and hits on some 24 Ukrainian artillery systems.
The Ukrainians seem to fight almost exclusively on foot. Losses of armored fighting vehicles have become rare. Today's report reports hits on only 7 armored combat systems (including tanks) but also hits on 35 transport vehicles, i.e trucks and pick-ups.
Yesterday's evening summary by Strana.news described the bad state most of Ukraine's brigades are in (machine translation):
Reports of the beginning of massive attacks by the Russian army coincided with the appearance of an increasing amount of information about significant problems with the offensive potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
As we have already written, ex-adviser to the President's Office Alexey Arestovich called on the Ukrainian command to go on the defensive and abandon the offensive, which, in his opinion, is hopeless with the current balance of forces.
Also in social networks, a video from a Ukrainian military man was distributed, who talks about problems in the "Guards Offensive" brigades due to heavy losses and poor organization.
"I communicate with different military personnel from different branches of the armed forces and, in principle, I understand that cp@ka is everywhere. But I did not expect that in the rampant "Offensive Guard" we will meet with those mistakes that even the most meaty brigades no longer make," says a National Guard soldier in Tiktok.
Then he describes various problems in specific teams. Let's list the main ones:
- Platoon commanders in critical areas, including on the Zaporozhye front, are appointed junior lieutenants without military experience and knowledge.
- Many fighters have not received sufficient training;
- Coordination at the company and battalion level is almost nonexistent. Maximum-squads and platoons;
- Huge losses – "three companies enter, only a few go back";
"One village took an infantry company in a short period of time. 120 plus or minus people," says the military man.
- The Russian Federation has many times more forces and resources – "no matter how strong you are, you will be stupidly beaten by the crowd";
- In some cases, the assault fighters go on foot – 7 km in equipment for 35 kg.
Other reports have confirmed that the Ukrainian military has long lost its middle officer and NCO corps. Smart kids fresh from senior high school are leading platoons of men mostly in 30s or 40s and 50s. Brigade commanders give direct orders down to platoons because the staff of battalions and companies in between is no longer there.
The Ukraine lacks artillery. The Russian counter battery fire has become more and more intense.
The advantage the HIMARS systems with their 70 kilometer reach had given Ukraine is also gone. The U.S. delivered HIMARS systems, which previously had been positioned safely out of reach of Russian counter-battery fire, are now easy to reach targets.
Russia's new versions of the Lancet kamikaze drone have destroyed Ukrainian fighter planes on the ground some 90 kilometer behind the frontline.
Smaller Russian First Person View (FPV) suicide drones now come with thermal night vision.
The new Tornado-S Multi Launch Rocket System (MLRS) provides a reach of 120 kilometer with GPS guided missiles.
It is pretty much over for the Ukrainian military. The only sensible action it can now take is to shorten the frontline and to retreat behind some natural defense barrier like the Dnieper river.
However, Zelensky still talks of victory and is unlikely to order such a move.