Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
October 11, 2023

Ukraine SitRep: Storming Andivka - Ukrainian Losses

The Russian military has launched small attacks along the whole frontline. A major effort is made near Andivka which yesterday was bombed to smithereens:

The headline reads “RF Army has delivered a blow of previously unseen might against the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU)”. What they are describing is an aerial bombing of Avdeevka, the heavily fortified Ukrainian town 14 kilometers away from Donetsk city, which is an urban center of more than a million inhabitants and capital of the Donbas oblast (region) of the same name. Donetsk city has been struck by missiles and artillery shells launched from Avdeevka on a daily basis from the time before the Special Military Operation, and with ever greater intensity during the SMO. Video images of destroyed homes and apartment buildings have appeared on Russian evening news together casualty figures and the testimony of victims.

The attack on Avdeevka came early in the morning when the Ukrainians were attempting to carry out a rotation of their troops. Eyewitnesses said that “the earth shook” in the whole area as a result of the bombing.
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The bombing of Avdeevka today, like the reported destruction of a major Ukrainian command post by 1.5 ton bombs a couple of days ago, would suggest the “softening up” phase before a major ground offensive.


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Since 2014 the Ukrainian military had made Andivka into a fortress. It requires big bombs to break its bunkers.


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That something important was coming up could be seen it the recent Daily Reports by the Russian Ministry of Defense.

The ones put out on the 8th, 9th and 10th of October showed relatively few Ukrainian casualties (655, 630, 580) and a reduced counter artillery campaign with only 6, 7 and 8 Ukrainian guns hit on those days. It was a sign that something was coming up.

Today's report, which includes the numbers from yesterday's campaign against Andivka and other places show high Ukrainian casualty numbers (895) and hits on some 24 Ukrainian artillery systems.

The Ukrainians seem to fight almost exclusively on foot. Losses of armored fighting vehicles have become rare. Today's report reports hits on only 7 armored combat systems (including tanks) but also hits on 35 transport vehicles, i.e trucks and pick-ups.

Yesterday's evening summary by Strana.news described the bad state most of Ukraine's brigades are in (machine translation):

Reports of the beginning of massive attacks by the Russian army coincided with the appearance of an increasing amount of information about significant problems with the offensive potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

As we have already written, ex-adviser to the President's Office Alexey Arestovich called on the Ukrainian command to go on the defensive and abandon the offensive, which, in his opinion, is hopeless with the current balance of forces.

Also in social networks, a video from a Ukrainian military man was distributed, who talks about problems in the "Guards Offensive" brigades due to heavy losses and poor organization.

"I communicate with different military personnel from different branches of the armed forces and, in principle, I understand that cp@ka is everywhere. But I did not expect that in the rampant "Offensive Guard" we will meet with those mistakes that even the most meaty brigades no longer make," says a National Guard soldier in Tiktok.

Then he describes various problems in specific teams. Let's list the main ones:

  • Platoon commanders in critical areas, including on the Zaporozhye front, are appointed junior lieutenants without military experience and knowledge.
  • Many fighters have not received sufficient training;
  • Coordination at the company and battalion level is almost nonexistent. Maximum-squads and platoons;
  • Huge losses - "three companies enter, only a few go back";

"One village took an infantry company in a short period of time. 120 plus or minus people," says the military man.

  • The Russian Federation has many times more forces and resources - "no matter how strong you are, you will be stupidly beaten by the crowd";
  • In some cases, the assault fighters go on foot - 7 km in equipment for 35 kg.

Other reports have confirmed that the Ukrainian military has long lost its middle officer and NCO corps. Smart kids fresh from senior high school are leading platoons of men mostly in 30s or 40s and 50s. Brigade commanders give direct orders down to platoons because the staff of battalions and companies in between is no longer there.

The Ukraine lacks artillery. The Russian counter battery fire has become more and more intense.

The advantage the HIMARS systems with their 70 kilometer reach had given Ukraine is also gone. The U.S. delivered  HIMARS systems, which previously had been positioned safely out of reach of Russian counter-battery fire, are now easy to reach targets.

Russia's new versions of the Lancet kamikaze drone have destroyed Ukrainian fighter planes on the ground some 90 kilometer behind the frontline.

Smaller Russian First Person View (FPV) suicide drones now come with thermal night vision.

The new Tornado-S Multi Launch Rocket System (MLRS) provides a reach of 120 kilometer with GPS guided missiles.

It is pretty much over for the Ukrainian military. The only sensible action it can now take is to shorten the frontline and to retreat behind some natural defense barrier like the Dnieper river.

However, Zelensky still talks of victory and is unlikely to order such a move.

Posted by b on October 11, 2023 at 15:00 UTC | Permalink

Comments

Back to the real war at last!! Russia will slowly but surely turn the screw now, not gonna go too mad but enough for all the mercenaries to run and the poor oul Ukrainian conscripts to surrender en masse.
NATOUS back to doing what they do best, murdering innocent civilians in the middle east.
Adios Ukraine.

Posted by: Eoin Clancy | Oct 11 2023 15:08 utc | 1

Lol, that nazi Inkan1969 which is stalking me on WordPress left a comment with a link to a YouTube video as proof claiming the Russian advance on Avdeevka had "stalled" 3 days ago.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Oct 11 2023 15:10 utc | 2

This last week coinciding with the breakout of a new Gaza war has given me a sense that the SMO has reached a turning point.

The Russians seem to be on the offensive unusually, they're attacking across a broad front which is also unusual.

They must sense the quickening of their power and the weakening of their enemy...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 11 2023 15:10 utc | 3

Thanks for the Ukraine follow up b.

I would think that defeat will come sooner now that focus and energy is being directed towards Occupied Palestine.

I do hope that Russian efforts stop the bombing of Donetsk city that has been consistent.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 11 2023 15:12 utc | 4

P.S: Hence, I felt quite comfortable following the events in Gaza pretty confident that the Ukraine war's outcome is pretty much concluded.

All else is mere detail ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 11 2023 15:13 utc | 5

"..Zelensky still talks of victory and is unlikely to order such a move."
No one can accuse Zelensky of being unprofessional. As a professional actor, he is supposed to follow the script as if he means it. He is doing it splendidly. What is the beef about?

Posted by: sumant | Oct 11 2023 15:13 utc | 6

Seems that military ops competence at field level is pretty much superfluous for the UA. Maybe Hamas can forward them a few paragliders.

Posted by: Stumpy | Oct 11 2023 15:14 utc | 7

"However, Zelensky still talks of victory and is unlikely to order such a move."

The longer he fails to do this the better for Russia.

Ukranazistan withdrawing behind the Dnieper and blowing the bridges (as of course it would do) would be a huge problem for Russia since a river crossing would be enormously casualty heavy. Instead Elensky cooperating by bleeding Ukranazistan's military to death in the meat grinder is a dream come true.

Especially since his Amerikastani owners will handily dump him to support their zionist owners anyway.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Oct 11 2023 15:17 utc | 8

The situation with arms supplies to Ukraine has deteriorated so much and is now in question of “disruption” due to the Israeli case, that Zelensky now has to personally travel to take part in the Ramstein format meeting.

Where he will convince everyone that the Ukrainian crisis should not be written off. Previously, Ze Ramstein and similar “forums” were below his image and authority, but now they are not.

Fast changing world...


https://t.me/legitimniy/16454
Our sources from the General Staff said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are experiencing a severe shortage of ammunition and equipment.

Against the backdrop of supply problems, a decision was made to save. Units are issued fewer shells, and there is a widespread shortage of ammunition for air defense.

At the moment, the Office of the President cannot solve these problems, as Western partners complain about empty reserves and the lack of opportunities to increase production.


https://t.me/rezident_ua/20075

Posted by: Down South | Oct 11 2023 15:21 utc | 9

A local Donbass blogger argues against optimistic “arrows on map drawers” and explains why Avdeevka will not be taken anytime soon, and the current Russian campaign will, at best, force Ukraine to relocate artillery reserves to the area and maybe the Russians will also succeed in increasing the cost for the Ukrainians to hold on to Avdeevka. https://t.me/wehearfromyanina/2807

Posted by: Frank | Oct 11 2023 15:21 utc | 10

https://t.me/NovichokRossiya/40046

Zelensky promised Grossi not to attack the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant

“ Zelensky personally assured me that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will not directly bomb or shell it ,” said Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

However, according to Grossi, Zelensky said that "all other options are under consideration ."

Related to this might be reports from a few days ago that Kremenchuk HPP, upstream of ZNPP, has been rigged with demolition charges: search for “Kremenchuk HPP mined”.

I’m wondering what the effect would be on the foundations of ZNPP if Kremenchuch HPP were to be breached in the manner of Kakhovka HPP.

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 11 2023 15:22 utc | 11

@Frank 10

Bringing up artillery will only make it easier for Russia to eliminate said artillery.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Oct 11 2023 15:23 utc | 12

Posted by: Down South | Oct 11 2023 15:21 utc | 9

On the other hand ….

https://t.me/NovichokRossiya/40055

Germany announces new defence aid package for Ukraine Germany has unveiled a fresh support package for Ukraine worth around 1bn euros (£866.7m), its defence ministry said.

The programme will cover air defence, weapons and ground vehicles, it added.

"Germany will continue to support Ukraine with what it needs most urgently - air defence, ammunition and tanks," German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said.

"With this new 'winter package' we are further increasing the operational readiness of the Ukrainian armed forces in the coming months.

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 11 2023 15:27 utc | 13

Good to see the squeeze being put on Andivka. Guessing those new FAB1500 guided bombs are turning those concrete fortification into tombs. While Russia was always going to win, the use of guided bombs and new versions of drones has sped up the progress while also reducing both material and manpower losses. A bonus is that they are relatively cheap as well. I hope (and believe) that Syria has been paying attention. One of the telegram channels reported that a Syrian transport plane landed in Iran yesterday, guessing to pick up supplies or "volunteers" (both?) These are indeed interesting times....

Posted by: ctiger | Oct 11 2023 15:33 utc | 14

Arch Bungle:

My guess is it's a matter of pressing everywhere in order to create or find a weak spot. Also the Ukrainians may have used to much ammunition in their summer offensive. So action along a large section of the front will pressure their supplies.

Posted by: Poul | Oct 11 2023 15:34 utc | 15

Is there still a war in Ukraine?

The effects of the Palestine/Israel war on Ukraine are dramatic. In the short term, it is very helpful for Ukraine: it gives them cover to end the disastrous offensive, it guarantees that a new military aid package will be forced through the US Congress very soon, and generally it empowers the right wing and the militarists in the US and Europe. But in the long run, it is devestating. Ukraine can only survive based on Western military and economic aid, and that really means it can only survive based on Western attention. That attention could never be sustained, and it just got gutted. It will never rise to former levels. E.g. CNN used to do a constant updates page on Ukraine every day, update 2 dozen time a day. Now their "Ukraine" page (https://www.cnn.com/world/europe/ukraine) doesn't actually have a single story directly on the war. It has fallen from sight completely, and Ukraine's greatest strength has been gutted. This will be devestating.

Posted by: Bob | Oct 11 2023 15:36 utc | 16

General Slim said, "Nothing is as good or as bad as it is first reported". Russia has looked close to taking Avdeevka or however it's spelled before. They don't even yet have it as tightly squeezed as they did during Bakhmut. It is still premature to talk of any change in the direction and tempo of the war.

Posted by: catdog | Oct 11 2023 15:37 utc | 17

Alas, so it is. If only Great & Lesser Israel tried the power of friendship... They should have been watching anime to know this. ;)

Posted by: titmouse | Oct 11 2023 15:42 utc | 18

"However, Zelensky still talks of victory and is unlikely to order such a move."

Zelenskii knows that he can't do that, lest his entire front collapse. At the same time, talk of attack and victory will keep the gravy train moving so that his ministers' kids can continue to party in the hottest nightspots in Europe and the US.

Posted by: Feral Finster | Oct 11 2023 15:43 utc | 19

""However, Zelensky still talks of victory and is unlikely to order such a move."
The longer he fails to do this the better for Russia.

Ukranazistan withdrawing behind the Dnieper and blowing the bridges (as of course it would do) would be a huge problem for Russia since a river crossing would be enormously casualty heavy. Instead Elensky cooperating by bleeding Ukranazistan's military to death in the meat grinder is a dream come true.

Especially since his Amerikastani owners will handily dump him to support their zionist owners anyway.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Oct 11 2023 15:17 utc | 8"

Go around, through Byelorus.

Posted by: Feral Finster | Oct 11 2023 15:45 utc | 20

Just another repeat of Soledar and Bakhmut. Gain the heights. Go around the edges. Get the supply lines in range... use the cauldron to diminish their resources and ability to fight back. Sure it takes time... but Russia has all the time in the world.

Posted by: Gold hoarder | Oct 11 2023 15:47 utc | 21

https://t.me/NovichokRossiya/40025

Ukrainian SU-25 destroyed on the ground.

Footage of the destruction of the SU-25 of the Ukrainian Air Force at the Dolgintsevo airfield in Krivoy Rog .

These images are notable for the fact that the Ukrainian fighter was destroyed by new loitering ammunition with a range of up to 120 kilometers

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 11 2023 16:00 utc | 22

Avdeevka is not Gaza!

Russia does not bomb Avdiivka. It is populated by citizens of the the Donetsk People's Republic (now Russians) who refuse to leave their homes. Some still remain. They have waited for liberation for 10 years.

Videos from the area show relatively little damage to the residential areas. Even the gigantic coke plant to the north of the town remains relative unscathed. The fighting and the artillery strikes happen in the fields around the city. Avdeevka is not Bakhmut!

P.S. - The name of the town is Avdeevka, also spelled Avdiivka in NATO's ethnically cleansed Newspeak. Not Andivka, as in the title of the post.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Oct 11 2023 16:01 utc | 23

Feral [email protected], smart money says, if Russia is serious about its security, Russia drops the bridges before Ukie gets there, leaving Ukie trapped between ze river and ze Russians......Ze might lose some sleep.

Caught a vid of his beard doing an art piece of shit, regardless of one's position on Miles, one thing he gets right is the tribal control of the Art world, and it mostly revolves around spilling blood or spraying shit and calling it art.......the funniest part, stupid fucks buy it.......oy vey!

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Oct 11 2023 16:11 utc | 24

As a lifelong anti-imperialist I hope for a total Russian victory in the Urkaine War. However, it is clear that the Ukrainian military is incredibly resilient, resourceful and strong to still keep Russian forces at bay despite less troops, less artillery, not much of an air force. We need to try and understand what makes these people keep going despite what you have written today. The only explanation I have for it is that the troops are fanatically committed to their cause while Russian troops may not be as committed to their cause or are over-confident.

Posted by: Chris Cosmos | Oct 11 2023 16:34 utc | 25

Russia's pressing on several points along the FEBA at once plus conducting what ought to be called an offensive in the Ukie rear areas taking out all kinds of targets, particularly assembly areas and ammo dumps. Also, the weather has begun to make a difference as much of Ukie transport consists of wheeled vehicles that can't handle the mud. Add the fact that Ukie troops must force march with heavy combat loads through that mud makes success of any sort fleeting. Rybar reported the weather issues occurred in the Orekhovo direction, which means Rabotinye. The weather forecast isn't for continuous rains but for rain every third or fourth day. For those who've been watching closely, that means the open fields will become close to impassable and the dirt tracks along the forest belts will soon become rutted mires as we saw last Winter. Ukies do have some reserves, but most of their power is concentrated in the South by Kherson as they appear to want to launch an offensive in that sector.  

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 11 2023 16:47 utc | 26

God bless and protect Russia.

Posted by: Robert E. Smith | Oct 11 2023 16:49 utc | 27

I expected veel hysteria in the Wesr about Israel. But the level of western concearn is enorm. Why. Israel can defend itself without problems. Why ae western elites competing in showing support for Israel and why is Ukraine so fast forgotten.

Posted by: zorge | Oct 11 2023 17:10 utc | 28

Terrific coverage. Thank you.

Posted by: Scorpion | Oct 11 2023 17:20 utc | 29

We need to try and understand what makes these people keep going despite what you have written today.

Posted by: Chris Cosmos | Oct 11 2023 16:34 utc | 25

---

Poverty, drugs and hunger.

Previously rum, sodomy and the lash.

Posted by: too scents | Oct 11 2023 17:21 utc | 30

Thank you b for the update.

Posted by: AI | Oct 11 2023 17:21 utc | 31

too scents @30
Poverty, drugs and the lash.

The lash is more evident than ever.

Posted by: bevin | Oct 11 2023 17:42 utc | 32

Are you sure the Russian military use GPS guided missiles? Why would Russia use a western system and why would the West not take measures against it? Can't they do it? And why wouldn't Russia use it's own GLONASS guided system? Or even better, a guided system that is capable of using all satellite positionin systems available, from GPS (USA) to Glonass (Russia), and also Galileo (EUrope) and BeiDou (China), etc, for improved results and failure-proof operation?

Posted by: Carlos Marques | Oct 11 2023 18:06 utc | 33

Other wanna‘ be vassals of Washington might learn a lesson from how Zelensky was left simply hanging in the wind by Washington in the blink of an eye.

Remarkable

Posted by: Exile | Oct 11 2023 18:15 utc | 34

Ukrainians now creeping with only 4 men fireteams in Zaporozhie...these groups only defense is stealth,but if they get noticed,they are gone. They did get noticed

https://twitter.com/GammonBadge/status/1712169088141729986

The quality of attacks continues degrading. The only possibility is to advance undetected in very small groups.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 11 2023 18:16 utc | 35

by: unimperator | Oct 11 2023 18:16 utc | 35
Says this page does not exist

Posted by: Robert E.Smith | Oct 11 2023 18:35 utc | 36

And then the leaves will fall from the tree- lines

Posted by: Paul from Norway | Oct 11 2023 18:38 utc | 37

Says this page does not exist
Posted by: Robert E.Smith | Oct 11 2023 18:35 utc | 36

https://twitter.com/GammonBadge/status/1712169088141729986

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 11 2023 18:46 utc | 38

Posted by: Chris Cosmos | Oct 11 2023 16:34 utc | 25

Are you serious? UAF has more troops.

Posted by: Colin | Oct 11 2023 18:53 utc | 39

@ Posted by: Carlos Marques | Oct 11 2023 18:06 utc | 33

GPS is now a general term for using outside signals for guidance. It is unclear which space based system(s) Russia might be using, nor does it really matter. Selectively "Turning off" the US GPS system is totally impracticable and would ruin users over a very wide area, like 1/2 of Europe and the Middle East.

Posted by: BroncoBilly | Oct 11 2023 19:27 utc | 40

@Carlos Marques | Oct 11 2023 18:06 utc | 33

Are you sure the Russian military use GPS guided missiles? Why would Russia use a western system and why would the West not take measures against it? Can't they do it? And why wouldn't Russia use it's own GLONASS guided system? Or even better, a guided system that is capable of using all satellite positionin systems available, from GPS (USA) to Glonass (Russia), and also Galileo (EUrope) and BeiDou (China), etc, for improved results and failure-proof operation?

Obviously, Russia is using GLONASS.

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 11 2023 19:38 utc | 41

Posted by: BroncoBilly | Oct 11 2023 19:27 utc | 40

GPS is originally born to be used by military.

Military can mess with GPS for civilian use, it's called SA selective accuracy.

Military grade GPS receivers are unaffected by errors introduced in signals that affects civilian GPS.

RF will probably use their own system, that is GLONASS.

Posted by: Mario | Oct 11 2023 19:39 utc | 42

@BroncoBilly | Oct 11 2023 19:27 utc | 40

GPS is now a general term for using outside signals for guidance.
No, GPS is a specific system, not a general term.

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 11 2023 19:39 utc | 43

Ukrops and their great quest, demanding our never ending support, has been CANCELLED.
Memory holing has been so frantically funny!

The daily newspapers are now fully putting baby killers LIE on front pages today. Though not one of the 250 Palestinian children who mysteriously ‘died’.
The bbc has even doubled down on their editorial style to insist upon the killed/died doublespeak.
Not a SINGLE front page that mentions the complete rout that is underway in their beloved Ukraine , bukraine whatever.
There’s more coverage of some tv celeb who has retired or something.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-67073418

Posted by: DunGroanin | Oct 11 2023 20:00 utc | 44

@Posted by: Mario | Oct 11 2023 19:39 utc | 42

Yes, SA and MA (military Accuracy) were built into the system. Seems like Al Gore determined that that was not nice, so got a law passed that the DoD would do away with those by...wait for it....

2022.

With the widespread civilian use of GPS these days from aircraft to commercial trucks to farm vehicles, turning the SA on would be disastrous.

And as the system uses 1/2 geo orbits, you can't just turn it off over Ukraine.

Posted by: BroncoBilly | Oct 11 2023 20:03 utc | 45

@ Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 11 2023 19:39 utc | 43

Sorry, I'll bet 99% of cell phone users don't realize that when their cell phone "GPS" doesn't use satellite signals. I have told dozens of people this and most give the glazed eye look back.
I explain it is a GRID Positioning System, the cell phone tower grid, not a space based one. Most will say "wow, never thought of that". Some continue on thinking there phone talks to satellites.

Posted by: BroncoBilly | Oct 11 2023 20:06 utc | 46

New tactic:
-- troll asks for a link to a statement;
-- some barfly reposts a link;
-- troll come back and say that page does not exist ...

So most knowledgeable responders here waste their time providing what a short web search could find in seconds.

Posted by: scanalyse | Oct 11 2023 20:12 utc | 47

The lash is more evident than ever.

Posted by: bevin | Oct 11 2023 17:42 utc | 32

Perhaps coercion is playing a progressively greater role but if the ukrainian army had actually been a mass of seething press ganged conscripts barely held in line by a few true believers it would not have performed as it did.
My guess is that to a large extent they actually believe they are fighting a war of national survival against a racially inferior enemy, thus they will fight to the bitter end, 1945 style.

Posted by: Satepestage | Oct 11 2023 20:15 utc | 48

as the US turns its attention to supporting genocide in Palestine, its failing proxy war against Russia is no longer seen as a profitable investment. I hope Kiev sees its Kabul moment within a year.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Oct 11 2023 20:16 utc | 49

the US propaganda press has always loved using babies to sell wars, from Huns bayoneting babies to Iraqis dumping incubator babies to Russians raping babies to now the evil Hamas hordes decapitating babies.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Oct 11 2023 20:24 utc | 50

Posted by: Satepestage | Oct 11 2023 20:15 utc | 48

i dont think its held in check by a few true believers, i think there are a large number of them wielding the lash, and the conscripts get dumped in the combat zone with no easy way out. which is why so many are surrendering to Russia.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Oct 11 2023 20:28 utc | 51

Posted by: pretzelattack | Oct 11 2023 20:16 utc | 49

Many claim to be pro-Russia, yet oppose imperialism's limited resources being bogged down in occupied Palestine, curious.

Posted by: Colin | Oct 11 2023 20:34 utc | 52

Military Summary Latest The Fall | Avdiivka Operational Encirclement. Insane Pressure.

Avdiivka would be a huge loss to Ukraine, it is much more heavily fortified than Bakhmut, with 8+ years of construction. If the Russians have really reached Siverne in the south and Berdychi in the north that is major progress and leaves a gap of just 7km, with only two roads well within Russian artillery range.The Russians may also have gained a foothold in the south of the built up fortified areas, providing the bridgehead from which to slowly work through the rest of Avdiivka. If Russia can fully encircle Avdiivka it can spend the winter slowly subduing it with the Azov and the massive guided bombs.

That will be a great achievement to clear the way for a Spring offensive from that area, and in the meantime may suck in many Ukrainian brigades if the Ukrainian leadership attempt to defend/retake it as they have with Bakhmut.

Posted by: Roger | Oct 11 2023 20:58 utc | 53

can they fufill a second year against russia?

I doubt it .)

Posted by: Macpott | Oct 11 2023 20:58 utc | 54

It defies belief that the Ukraine command still insists on feeding Ukrainians - old, tired, dragging through the mud what ought to be trucked - into the meat grinder as both sides long acknowledge the situation.

The Ukraine command perfectly plays along with Russia wish to limit the destruction to a narrow yet long band, maximising the grind for Ukraine while minimising the damage on future Novorussian land.

I can only imagine the Ukrainians take hope from the whole of NATO swirling around the battle - thousands of foreign soldiers, supplies from every corner of the planet, weapons of nearly any sort, 24/7 torrents of air- and spaceborne intel, from FUKUS to Poland to Romania all powers involved.

Posted by: Leser | Oct 11 2023 21:06 utc | 55

bevin, too scents

The average soldier anywhere is fairly dumb. Try talking to American veterans. Ukraine has had a thirty year exodus of any with IQ above room temperature. A very high proportion of those with both a minimum of intelligence and any motivation to remain in 404 are nazis.

It is possible to get dumb people to do dumb things. I don't see any bravery or fighting spirit from AFU. They stand in position and die. 500,000 of them.

Posted by: oldhippie | Oct 11 2023 21:07 utc | 56

John Kirby just said in the press briefing that US "is coming near the end of the rope" with Ukraine funding.

That is precisely what some have speculated, they will dump it onto EU, and if they insist wanting to fund the US portion, they will simply get crushed. It's literally throwing money in the fireplace.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 11 2023 21:10 utc | 57

Posted by: Colin | Oct 11 2023 20:34 utc | 52

i havent seen anybody opposing the US supporting the genocide in Palestine who claims to be pro Russia, the only one i've seen so far is the cartoon dawg, i think he claims to want the US out of Ukraine but loves US support for Israel. in any event, it shows what a hopeless farce the US trying to fight a 2 front war against Russia and China at the same time, it can't support all its proxies. this US has bitten off more than it can chew, but it keeps ordering more food.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Oct 11 2023 21:52 utc | 58

Military summary report from Avdeevka.

RUAF bypassed Stepove from the north and moved west and managed to enter the village of Berdychi. They lost a few armored vehicles to ATGMs. But they seem to have foothold in the village.

In the south, RU advanced with relatively light resistance towards and to the east of Sieverne, cutting the road directly west out of Avdeevka. AFU managed to film an armored vehicle moving across the field but had nothing to hit it with. Later, RUAF destroyed the AFU camera that monitored activities from the top of a mast in Sieverne after which AFU side publications stopped.

RUAF also managed to expand their control west and north-west of Vodiane with only infantry. No resistance from indirect weapons. RU directed a lot of bomb strikes in this direction to ensure everything is clear, a hidden long-range Panzerhaubitse 2000 was found and hit. So we'll see in the coming days the fate of the encirclement.

Inside Avdeevka, strangely enough there was a fuel tanker train which got hit. How it was there is a mystery, considering the rail is cut.

In Novomikhalovka, DRG has approached the village from the south along the road.

Rabotyne front is very low activity. RUAF bombs Novodanilovka, NE of Kopani.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 11 2023 22:03 utc | 59

If anyone told me when this began that Russia would still be attacking Avdiivka over 1.5 years into the war I wouldn't believe them. That this is the case despite all those problems in the AFU makes it even more incredible.

Posted by: abel | Oct 11 2023 22:22 utc | 60

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 11 2023 18:46 utc | 38

Thanks. I'm always suspicious when a long take cuts right before the payoff to the money shot. That happens very often in these videos.

Posted by: Robert E.Smith | Oct 11 2023 22:23 utc | 61

Posted by: abel | Oct 11 2023 22:22 utc | 60

Well, they poured 8 years worth of high quality steel concrete in and around Avdeevka, making the place Maginot line on steroids. Not only the town but even the fields around it.

Meanwhile, they've taken pretty much everything else that's important and as AFU wrecked itself in the spring counter-offensive and Bakhmut it's probably less costly to take Avdeevka now.

Compared to if you didn't defeat the bulk of AFU first and allowed it to populate all those forts in and around Avdeevka and its supply paths and simply take them head-on.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 11 2023 22:29 utc | 62

Hey this is the 20-year-old Jew on the East Coast who's a virgin that is also with the CIA and has a ghost friend and lives in America where d a w g is not slang and is apparently crazy according to all the Geniuses here.

How is your stupid circle jerk going? Anybody come yet?

Posted by: Depewty Dawg | Oct 11 2023 22:31 utc | 63

Posted by: Depewty Dawg | Oct 11 2023 22:31 utc | 63

Discussion in here is legit. A lot of solid, precise fact and analysis. The best anywhere, especially now. So don't bring that shit in here, please. Keep the circus stuff on the circus threads.

Posted by: Robert E.Smith | Oct 11 2023 22:47 utc | 64

Scale of the Russian assault:

https://t.me/CyberspecNews/45005

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 11 2023 23:29 utc | 65

A stock piece of war cheerleading which cannot even get its most important (titular!) toponym right.

A clear misundestanding of the modus operandi of a multiple rocket launcher, and what counter-battery or drones can or cannot do against it.

Writing "the Ukraine", just as prescribed and admonished by the now retired Swiss Putinist in Chief.

A complete and presumably deliberate (given the unquestionable talent of the author) lack of political and historical perspective.

Yes. It is over for Ukraine. We have been constantly reading that for the last two years and now the time is probably coming.
But what does that mean for the general frame of the conflict?
And for the human beings over there?

It seems that we are not going to find too many insightful comments here...

Posted by: MoaMetal | Oct 11 2023 23:31 utc | 66

Interesting. I would have thought that the Tornado-S would have been fitted with GLONASS and not GPS.

Posted by: Jeff Harrison | Oct 11 2023 23:40 utc | 67

I expect a slow encirclement of avdeevka rather than an assault. But if the field reports are true, this is a good start and makes a difficult situation for Ukrainian forces in the city.

Increasing pressure all along the front as fall passes into early winter makes a great deal of sense. Any dislodging of Ukrainian forces complicates repositioning. The question is whether Russia will exploit any breaks in the front or be content to consolidate those positions. I suspect they’ll consolidate rather than push hard.

A real question is to what degree the US was using its intelligence capacity for Ukraine and to what degree it will be needed for Israel. I’d imagine that Israel will want to know what’s going on from Egypt to Tehran. A reduction in US intelligence assistance to Ukraine would be incredibly devastating.

Posted by: Lex | Oct 12 2023 0:07 utc | 68

Absolutely, the underground defense structure is surely formidable, but once Russian troops get to the outskirts of the town, how many defenders will want to recapitulate the doomed occupation of the Azovstal steel plant? Especially now with the AFU fighting from an inferior position, by every metric?

Also, I could see Russia being OK with just keeping the defenders bottled up underground, slowly but surely losing their health and morale, as long as they accomplished taking out all the long range offensive capabilities of the forces on the surface.

We've seen how Russia doesn't interrupt Zelenskyy while he's on a roll of doubling down on his mistakes, and I could see Russia holding back from taking on the bloody job of uprooting the defenders, as long as Zelenskyy refused to concede that their defeat was inevitable, and he insisted that aid and reinforcements continued to get shipped to the town, even though Russia chewed up all that relief, and from a safe distance.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 12 2023 0:20 utc | 69

Neutralize Ukie railways. That's how Ukies transport most weapons and fighters. Civilians don't travel much. Soviet Union has wasted so much on building airstrips and railways in Useless Ukraine.

Russia sent a dedicated Ukrainazistan monitoring satellite this year. Send another to reduce time lag between overhead passes.

Ukie fuel infrastructure must not be spared. It's fully military used.

Posted by: Jason | Oct 12 2023 0:20 utc | 70

"I would have thought that the Tornado-S would have been fitted with GLONASS and not GPS."

It is. I think "GPS" was used in a generic English sense.

(But USA can't stop anyone accessing GPS protocol. It is not device specific. Hamas used it too.)

Posted by: Jason | Oct 12 2023 0:25 utc | 71

Is it just me or is zelenski going to be rather butt hurt because the US is pivoting to the middle East again? Ukraine has pretty much dropped off the radar. Bummer.

Posted by: Immaculate deception | Oct 12 2023 0:46 utc | 72

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 11 2023 16:47 utc | 26

Well said, and interesting. Food for thought that had me thinking of a corollary to the AFU operating their vehicles in the mud, that now they will be leaving a trail when they move off to what cover remains, and unlike last muddy season, the Russians now have many, many, more drones to detect those tracks, and a better system of attacking tracked and wheeled vehicles that are hiding under cover.

With more infrared weapons, better optics, and more, well seasoned, analysts, with more computers to assist them, we could be seeing a whole different ball game from the last time the AFU played hide and seek with the Russian military. Also, an enormous amount of Ukraine's best vehicles are at or near a fairly narrow front line, albeit that it's extremely long.

And I'm very curious as to whether or not Russia's satellite based surveillance system has taken it up a notch with its ability to process the data coming from those satellites. Like in Blade Runner, where Harrison Ford mutters "enhance", I can readily imagine Russian satellite sourced intelligence, processed by newly online computational resources, leaving the AFU with far fewer secrets that they can conceal.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 12 2023 0:48 utc | 73

Riders on the storm. Into this house we're born. Like a dog without a bone, actors out on loan. Riders on the storm. Yeah.

Posted by: Immaculate deception | Oct 12 2023 0:51 utc | 74

"There's a killer on the road." Jim Morrison got that right, he understood the lingering collective guilt of America for its injustices to Native Americans, and how it clouded our collective subconscious. A nation that doesn't resolve an ancient evil is condemned to keep producing murderers, and other aberrations.

I was still speaking of America, and hadn't moved on to Israel, though I can see how you'd think I had.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 12 2023 1:14 utc | 75

https://t.me/c/1598473749/122648

⚡The landfill in the area of the Avdiivka coke plant was completely cleared by the forces of 114 omsbr, part of the enemy forces defending the landfill retreated to the AKKhZ, part was destroyed — NGP raZVedka

At the moment, our people have secured their positions and are preparing for further work.

One of the most important strategic points has fallen.
This is the strongest blow for the enemy, including moral.

Iron men serve in the Armed Forces of Russia!

This is at an elevation which commands Avdeevka, so this is a double disaster for the Ukranazis.

I don't think there will be another Artëmovsk style months long battle.

1. Ukranazistan is much weaker now Ruabon 10 months ago, including in trained manpower.
2. Russia has finally sorted out the FAB and drone bottlenecks.
3. Amerikastan is incapable of supplying both its Ukranazi puppets and its zionistani masters simultaneously and
4. These are Russian regular troops, not Wagner, so the mutual suspicion and supply/coordination problems of Artëmovsk will be absent.

Which is not to say Ukranazistan will abandon Avdeevka relatively quickly like Lisichansk or Soledar, but even if it tries its hardest it cannot do another Artëmovsk.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Oct 12 2023 1:32 utc | 76

Some videos for today.

Kiev regime forces lost three more US-supplied MaxxPro armored vehicles near Donetsk:
https://odysee.com/@YuBratNavas:f/VID_20231012_012643_493:9

Russian troops clearing out enemy firing positions near Kupyansk:
https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/5222376409728:7

Another Kiev regime Su-25 got shot down on the Zaporozhye front:
https://odysee.com/@YuBratNavas:f/VID_20231011_230650_122:8

Russian Grad MLRS pounds enemy position near Krasny Liman:
https://rutube.ru/video/47a804a1feacb361b2938e54ab385c0f/

Russian artillery strikes enemy trench:
https://rutube.ru/video/d5400c1522f3f883ada01c87b8503e38/

Russian Su-25 conducts airstrike near Donetsk:
https://rutube.ru/video/7561aeeebc3ad8f7d8b18fb0dd35967e/

Posted by: Nate | Oct 12 2023 1:38 utc | 77

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 11 2023 21:10 utc | 57

TWIN EVIL FULL MONTY!

Sssullivan, 10 Oct

Kirby-content, 11 Oct

Posted by: sln2002 | Oct 12 2023 1:42 utc | 78

pretzelattack | Oct 11 2023 20:24 utc | 50
*** the US propaganda press has always loved using babies to sell wars, from Huns bayoneting babies to Iraqis dumping incubator babies to Russians raping babies to now the evil Hamas hordes decapitating babies.***

Same in the UK. Makes one wonder about the mentality and fantasies (hope they don't take it beyond that) of 'journalists', editors and spin-doctors who concoct the guff .... they seem to have an obsession that would best be restrained within a secure institution, to protect the public.

Posted by: Cynic | Oct 12 2023 2:01 utc | 79

SouthFront has a piece up "Russia Achieved Strategic Gains On The Second Day Of Offensive Around Avdeevka" with a video of the oil tankers burning in which you can see several other trains parked on adjacent tracks. Interesting that they were unharmed and indicating a very selective strike and likely not with a glide bomb. @Petri Krohn | Oct 11 2023 16:01 utc | 23 says many civilians still there - I find it hard to believe there are still a significant number of neutral people still there as it has been a military stronghold for so long, but it will be interesting to see how the offensive proceeds. Not sure how the high rise apartment blocks and the industrial zone can be cleared without the kind of destruction there was in Mariupol, if not Bakhmut. Maybe they will just surrender, but I doubt it as they have been shelling the civilians for 10 years...

The SouthFront article also has videos of columns of Russian armor headed to the front seemingly without fear of artillery or drone strikes - maybe it was shot quite a ways in the rear.

Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 12 2023 2:19 utc | 80

Posted by: Cynic | Oct 12 2023 2:01 utc | 79

Don't forget the nuns.

I admit particularly annoys me, the debased imaginations of the propagandists. You can identify them by that alone. No need to listen further.

And then they want to blather on about being "civilized".

Posted by: Bemildred | Oct 12 2023 2:30 utc | 81

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation

(11 October 2023)

Part I (Part II (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/10241))

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.

▫️In Kupyansk direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/31370), units of the Zapad Group of Forces supported by aviation and artillery repelled 10 counter-attacks of assault detachments of the AFU 32nd, 115th mechanised and 10th Mountain Assault Brigade close to Ivanovka, Sinkovka (Kharkov region), Makeyevka (Lugansk People's Republic), and improved the tactical situation at the forward lines.

▫️The enemy lost up to 280 Ukrainian troops killed and wounded, one tank, and two motor vehicles.

▫️In addition, in the course of counterbattery warfare, one U.S.-made M777 artillery system, one Polish-made Krab self-propelled artillery howitzer, and one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery howitzer were neutralised.

▫️One ammunition depot of foreign mercenaries was destroyed close to Volchansk (Kharkov region).

▫️In Krasny Liman direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/31371), units of the Tsentr Group of Forces, helicopters, artillery, and heavy flamethrower systems repelled two attacks of assault detachments of the AFU 67th Mechanised Brigade near Serebryanskoye forestry.

▫️In addition, strikes were delivered at manpower and hardware of the AFU 12th Azov Special Operations Brigade, 63rd Mechanised Brigade, and 5th National Guard Brigade south of Kuzmino, Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People's Republic) and Torskoye (Donetsk People's Republic).The enemy lost up to 65 Ukrainian troops and two pickup trucks.

▫️In the course of counter-battery warfare, the Russian troops hit one French-made Caezar self-propelled howitzer, three Msta-S self-propelled artillery systems, one Akatsiya and one Gvozdika self-propelled howitzers, one D-30 howitzer, as well as one Czech-made RM-70 Vampire MLRS.

▫️In Donetsk direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/31372), units of the Yug Group of Forces supported by aviation, artillery, and heavy flamethrower systems improved the tactical situation at the forward lines close to Avdeyevka (Donetsk People's Republic).

▫️In addition, as a result of strikes at reserves of the AFU 31st Mechanised Brigade near Ocheretino (Donetsk People's Republic) the enemy lost up to 90 Ukrainian troops killed and wounded, as well as 10 U.S.-made MaxxPro armoured motor vehicles.

▫️The total enemy loses in this direction over the past 24 hours amounted to 330 Ukranian troops killed and wounded, one tank, 11 armoured personnel carriers, four armoured fighting vehicles, and three motor vehicles.

▫️Two Polish-made Krab self-propelled artillery systems and one D-20 howitzer were neutralised during counter-battery warfare.

▫️One ammunition depot of the AFU 110th Mechanised Brigade has been destroyed close to Orlovka (Donetsk People's Republic).
(11 October 2023)

Part II (Part I (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/10240))

▫️ In South Donetsk direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/31373), units of the Vostok Group of Forces, helicoptes, and artillery inflicted loses on manpower and hardware of the AFU 72nd Mechanised Brigade and 128th Territorial Defence Brigade near Ugledar and Vodyanoye (Donetsk People's Republic).

▫️The AFU losses have amounted to up to 155 Ukrainian troops and four motor vehicles.

▫️In the course of counter-battery warfare, the Russian troops neutralised one U.S.-made M777 artillery system, one U.S.-made M109 Paladin howitzer, one UK-made FH70 howitzer, two Msta-S self-propelled artillery systems, and one Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer.

▫️In Zaporozhye direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/31374), two AFU attacks northwest of Verbovoye (Zaporozhye region) were repelled by actions of the Russian Group of Forces units, air strikes, and artillery fire.

▫️Up to 20 Ukrainian troops, one tank, two motor vehicles, one U.S.-made M777 artillery system, as well as one D-20 howitzer were neutralised.

▫️In Kherson direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/31374), up to 45 Ukrainian troops, 11 motor vehicles, one U.S.-made M777 artillery system, and one D-20 howitzer have been destroyed.

▫️In addition, one U.S.-made AN/TPQ-36 counterbattery warfare radar was destroyed near Pridneprovskoye (Kherson region).

▫️Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, and Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces have engaged AFU manpower and hardware in 127 areas during the day.

▫️One MiG-25 fighter jets of the Ukrainian Air Force was destroyed at the Dolgintsevo airfield (Dnepropetrovsk region).

▫️In addition, one ST-68U radar station for the detection, identification, and tracking of aerial targets was destroyed close to Malovarvarovka (Nikolayev region).

▫️Air defence systems have intercepted three JDAM guided bombs, seven HARM anti-radiation missiles, and four U.S.-made HIMARS MLRS projectiles during the day.

▫️Moreover, 41 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were shot down close to Romanovskoye, Ocheretovatoye, Ilchenkovo (Zaporozhye region), Vasilieyvka, Peschanovka (Kherson region), Paraskoveyevka, Kirillovka, Artyomovsk, Nikolayevka, Peski (Donetsk People's Republic), Ploshchanka and Novodruzhesk (Lugansk People's Republic).

📊 In total, 488 airplanes and 250 helicopters, 7,709 unmanned aerial vehicles, 441 air defence missile systems, 12,496 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,162 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 6,723 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 14,064 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.

Source: Geroman

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 12 2023 2:43 utc | 82

A real question is to what degree the US was using its intelligence capacity for Ukraine and to what degree it will be needed for Israel. I’d imagine that Israel will want to know what’s going on from Egypt to Tehran. A reduction in US intelligence assistance to Ukraine would be incredibly devastating.

Posted by: Lex | Oct 12 2023 0:07 utc | 68
--------------------------------------------------------------
My sentiments exactly. When I was informed by one of our fellow barflies that a SEAL team is considered for freeing hostages in Gaza or elsehwere, I was reminded of the live satellite coverage of the Osama Bin Laden takedown. In Northern Virginia, not too far from IAD, is the control over US saellite positioning. There is a room with a view and I knew someone who was there, then. I have been on the compound. The WH basement also offers viewing opportunities and my best guess is that neither DoD nor NSA would do without.

My best guess is for, after repositioning, non-stop satellite coverage of that little piece of the ME with real-time analysis by humans.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 12 2023 2:56 utc | 83

Posted by: Chris Cosmos | Oct 11 2023 16:34 utc | 25

The following reasons seem sufficient to me:

- Russia is conducting a limited engagement SMO giving the UA army greater leeway with logistics, infrastructure, information control than an invading army would normally allow

- UA is backed with considerable NATO support through supplies, training, intelligence

- UA has full support of the entire western / global financial infrastructure; allowing them to redirect a very large part of the civilian economy and population to the war effort heedless of waste. (I don't think the Russian army in the SMO zone yet outnumbers Ukrainians)

- UA defensive positions have been prepared for 9 years

It's difficult to characterize Ukraine as the underdog here.

Posted by: Browser | Oct 12 2023 5:54 utc | 84

A stock piece of war cheerleading which cannot even get its most important (titular!) toponym right.

A clear misundestanding of the modus operandi of a multiple rocket launcher, and what counter-battery or drones can or cannot do against it.

Writing "the Ukraine", just as prescribed and admonished by the now retired Swiss Putinist in Chief.

A complete and presumably deliberate (given the unquestionable talent of the author) lack of political and historical perspective.

Yes. It is over for Ukraine. We have been constantly reading that for the last two years and now the time is probably coming.
But what does that mean for the general frame of the conflict?
And for the human beings over there?

It seems that we are not going to find too many insightful comments here...

Posted by: MoaMetal | Oct 11 2023 23:31 utc | 66

Thank you so much for this cleverly crafted insight and helpful contribution. I had to slog through 5 incomplete sentences before you stumbled upon the grammatically correct statement "It is over for Ukraine."

10,000 monkeys banging away on typewriters will eventually produce Shakespeare plays.

Posted by: retroflecks | Oct 12 2023 6:15 utc | 85

Putin must declare Israel an enemy state. Many in the Russian believe it to be so already anyway. I disagree that Israel has anything that Russia needs. Full support must be given to Iran and to Hezbollah and to Hamas.

The Arab world must be supported fully to rise up against its U.S. oppressors - the very heart of which site in the illegally occupied Tel Aviv.

Posted by: Night Tripper | Oct 12 2023 6:40 utc | 86

"It is over for Ukraine."

While grammatically correct, this statement has been true for quite a while, yet it will still take quite a while to be completed.

To summarize the current situation for those coming late:

Facing flagging Nielson ratings: the orchestrated genocide and ethnic cleansing of Slavic peoples North of the Black Sea has been shifted to a less favorable time-slot.

The Corporation responsible for this and many other atrocities is instead bringing out a new Season of "Ethnic Cleansing in Caanan". Viewer polling suggested greater support for War Crimes and attempted genocide against browner peoples and children.

(sad sarcasm)

(Thank you, b, for keeping this thread open during the attempted Memory-Hole. Thank you for hosting the Palestine thread also. I wish both were unnecessary.)

Posted by: retroflecks | Oct 12 2023 6:41 utc | 87

It seems that we are not going to find too many insightful comments here...

Posted by: MoaMetal | Oct 11 2023 23:31 utc | 66

......................................

May I disagree?

"b's" articles are key to following the war in Ukraine. On top of that a team of commenters who know what's what and follow every twist and turn. You'd have to follow the press and internet full time to get the picture otherwise. Even then you'd miss a lot.

On the overall picture the time is long past for "insightful comments". The Russians will absorb such of the old Party of Regions area as they think suitable and will neutralise the rest. That's been apparent at least since the breakdown of the Istanbul talks. Probably since February 21st 2022.

It's interesting watching them do it - and heart-breaking watching us in the West sacrificing our proxies in the process - but barring nuclear that's how it will go.

Where the picture is still unclear is on what happens afterwards. Will the Russians return to their 2021 European Security demands? What means will they employ to get those demands met?

My maybe not very insightful guess is that they will simply let supply contracts with the EU run out if those demands are not met. Yours?

Posted by: English Outsider | Oct 12 2023 15:47 utc | 88

Not sure this is the prelude of a great offensive in October. Rasputitsa is coming.

More likely, this is a horse d'oeuvre for the main dish coming in winter, when the ground is suitably frozen.

Posted by: Alexander P | Oct 12 2023 16:08 utc | 89

@English Outsider #88

About this website, you are certainly correct on a general basis, but this particular article, with its obvious lack of basic proofreading, appeared just sloppy and unnecessary.

My comment was probably too harsh (given the many valuable contributions that the author regularly offers), but especially that certain "the Ukraine" passage, though probably a random occurrence, reminded me of a really disgraceful person.

You are possibly right about the scarcely reversible "inertia" of certain processes, but all these general geopolitic/ power balance/ "realistic" (á la Mearsheimer so to speak) approaches leave me deeply unconvinced.
They seem just too easy...

In any case I lack the expertise to discuss them on a serious level.

I am more concerned about the lack of genuine political culture which plagues, as paradoxical mirror images, both Russia and Western Europe.
In the case of Russia, this is compounded by the already very serious effects of the isolation, for example in the scientific fields which I know more closely.

It is a partly self-inflicted decline, against which the absorption of this or that Oblast seems a really minor issue...

Posted by: MoaMetal | Oct 12 2023 17:09 utc | 90

Posted by: MoaMetal | Oct 12 2023 17:09 utc | 90

......................

Should say that as far as I know "The Ukraine", with the definite article, was common usage until recently. Prit Buttar, in his study of the fighting in 1943 on the Eastern Front, uses it regularly. That was published in 2019. It now carries political overtones but I'd say for many of us it's still just a matter of usage.

Terms like "The SMO" or "The Revolution of Dignity" also carry a massive overburden of implied political judgement. One has to be aware of the implications of using such terms. But one is also entitled, perhaps, to refuse to be tied down to this or that position by those implications.

On more serious matters, you sure that the Russians are "isolated"? I suspect we in the West are about to find out that we are.

Posted by: English Outsider | Oct 12 2023 20:22 utc | 91

It looks like RU used white phosphorous last night against military targets in Andvika.

Cue western nabobs to cry war crimes...

Uh oh, they can't. Israel is using the same bombs against civilians in Gaza.

Posted by: scepticalSOB | Oct 13 2023 10:03 utc | 92

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