Ukraine SitRep: Bad Demographics - End of Support
Via a Responsible Statecraft piece I came onto a EU study that tried to predict the future demographics of Ukraine's population.
The War and the Future of Ukraine’s Population
The study is from early 2022 and is based on Ukrainian casualty numbers from only the very first month of the war. Their worst case scenario was this:
Our third and fourth scenarios assume that the war will continue for a month or longer so that further casualties and refugees are expected. We assume the following casualties: 5,000 deaths among soldiers and 1,500 civilian deaths based on the current trends. There will be 5 million refugees, which is an estimate by UNHCR (UNHCR 2022a)
The real refugee numbers are twice as high and the casualty numbers, wounded and dead, are of course about 100 times higher than the study assumed. It was thus not worth the money that had been spend on it.
Still, some graphs in it are usable.
Yesterday I shortly discussed the op-ed by the former British Minister of Defense Ben Wallace in which he asserts:
The average age of the soldiers at the front is over 40.
He then urges the Ukrainian government to throw more young men into the meat grinder.
My response to Wallace was this:
The young Ukrainians are gone. They either have fled from Ukraine or are wounded, disabled or died. You can not mobilize what is no longer there.
Unfortunately the real situation is worse then I had thought. The EU demographic study included this graph:
bigger
The 'age pyramid' in Ukraine isn't a pyramid. In 2020 there was a huge lack of 15 to 20 years old people. They were simply not there. They never existed. The number of newborns around 2000 must have been horribly low.
The reason for that was likely the serious downturn of Ukraine's economy after it had separated itself from the Soviet Union.
bigger
It took a decade long severe recession for Ukraine to find a bottom for its economy. Bad economic times and low expectations of betterment had influenced the desire of its people to procreate. Two more downturns followed during the global recession around 2008 and due to the 2014 Maidan coup and the civil war following it.
Thus when the war started there were only half as many people of 20 year age than 40 year old ones. It is no wonder then that few of younger age are seen at the front line.
There is still one measure Ukraine might take to increase the numbers of young soldiers. There currently are exemptions from mobilization for those who study at a university. If Ukraine would draft these if could probably find a few ten-thousand additional soldiers. But it would also strip itself of its future elite.
The already bad demographic prediction some 20 years out would then look even worse than they currently do.
Early this year Ukraine's birthrate had hit a new low:
To keep a population steady, research shows it's necessary to have an average of about 2.1 babies per family — known as a replacement rate. In Ukraine, fertility rates have remained under that threshold since 1990. Over the last two decades, the rate has often dropped below what experts call a "very low" fertility rate of 1.3, when a population begins to shrink at an ever increasing rate. In January 2021, a year before Russia's full-scale invasion, the fertility rate was 1.16, according to national statistics.
The birthrate has since dropped further and is now the lowest one in the world:
Birthrates in Ukraine have fallen by 28% in the first half of 2023, compared to the same period prior to the war, marking the most significant drop since Ukraine gained its independence in 1991, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sept. 25.
...
Due to the ongoing war, millions of Ukrainian women with children were forced to leave the country, while men aged 18 to 60 were prohibited from leaving. As a result, many couples were physically separated, while others delayed starting families, the report says.In the first half of 2023, there were 96,755 children born in Ukraine. Since 2013, the country's fertility rate has been dropping by approximately 7% per year.
The population of Ukraine will shrink further. In 1990 Ukraine had a population of more than 50 million people. Twenty years from now the country will have less than maybe 25 million inhabitants. This even if all refugees return. A large if that this is unlikely to happen.
Support for Ukraine is shrinking:
As Russia has become more bloodyminded, Ukraine’s allies seem caught in their own conflicting boundary conditions. There is no willingness to mobilize to defend Ukraine. There isn’t even a serious effort to ramp up military production to an adequate level to match, let alone surpass, Russia’s output.And that’s before getting to the fact that Ukraine as a county has become a very costly ward of all its backers.
Yesterday a meeting of the EU's foreign ministers on further military assistance for Ukraine ended without results (machine translation):
The foreign ministers of the EU countries at today's summit in Kiev could not agree on the allocation of military assistance to Ukraine in the amount of 5 billion euros for 2024.This was announced at a press conference following the event by EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrel.
The EU's budget for 2023 was €168.6 billion. €5 billion are peanuts but the EU countries could not unite over it. The senseless generosity has reached the end of the possible.
Borrel predicted the inevitable outcome:
Earlier, EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrel said that the cessation of military support for Kiev from the West will lead to a quick end to the conflict in Ukraine, but as a result, the country will lose its independence.
A quick end to the conflict is what all sane people should hope for.
Look at the demographics and economics above and ask yourself what 30 years of 'independence' have done for Ukraine.
To end it could well be the best that could ever happen to it. Unfortunately for it Russia is unlikely to step in and to subsidize its further existence.
Posted by b on October 3, 2023 at 13:30 UTC | Permalink
next page »It would certainly be interesting to see graphs by age group of war casualties--both killed and wounded. But it's doubtful that any accurate figures will ever be available. In the ten years since 2014, the Ukrainian ultra-nationalists have literally destroyed the future viability of their own country. And who has "groomed" these crazies over many decades for such a gruesome, show-stopping role? Well, I think we can figure that out quite easily...
Posted by: tawharanui | Oct 3 2023 13:52 utc | 3
It is not only that Ukrainians are not choosing to procreate. They have been leaving the country ever since independence. Who stay behind are the stupid, the unambitious, the unhealthy. The unhealthy have a lower chance of a live birth, or a healthy live birth.
It requires a lengthy list of unrealistic assumptions to imagine that Ukraine will exist at all in a generation. When RF takes over they will need to repopulate the territory. I can't tell you if RF is taking entire territory next month or in ten years. But they will.
Posted by: oldhippie | Oct 3 2023 13:56 utc | 4
In 1991 Lithuania had 3.7 million citizens; today it's 2.8 million.
In 1991 Bulgaria had 8.5 million citizens; today it's 6.4 million.
Under communism they had no money, but could afford to have children.
Posted by: Passerby | Oct 3 2023 14:00 utc | 5
It seems that all previous population projections are coming undone, as the global population growth rate is 2.3 per cent, while the replacement rate is 2.1. The only region in the world that still has birth rates above the replacement level is sub-Saharan Africa, but it is also falling rapidly. All others are below.
Posted by: On the roof | Oct 3 2023 14:00 utc | 6
@1
Russias fertility rate for 2023 is 1.823 children per woman (wikipedia and macrotrends have the same number).
Thats one of the, maybe the highest in europe.
2.1 kids per woman is the magic number (replacement).
I remember quite well that russia was down to 1.2. But putin made positive demographic developement one of his priorities. Its pretty hard to predict this stuff and the road to a long term sustainable fertility rate is quite tricky but russia seems to be on track to get there at least for the moment.
Posted by: Orgel | Oct 3 2023 14:14 utc | 7
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Immediate Plans of the AFU⚡️💬 From reliable sources it became known that in the period from 5 to 15 October the AFU is planning another stage of land offensive. This is the last option to gain a foothold before the onset of autumn thaw.
🔹 From the area of #Pokrovsk (former #Krasnoarmeysk) and #Dobropolye from the territory of training camps, personnel and equipment are transferred partially transferred to #Zaporozhye, and the main part, to the #SouthDonetsk direction.
🔹 In the first ten days of October, the main breakthrough is planned from Velikaya Novoselovka, Zolotaya Niva and #Staromayorskoye through Krasnaya Polyana towards #Volnovakha. Equipment is also being transferred from #Dnepropetrovsk to the #Zaporozhye direction. Abrams tanks were seen as part of the columns, and American M113 and Bradley armored personnel carriers were transported in trucks with the inscription “Nova Poshta” (one truck can accommodate up to 2 units of equipment).
🔹 Kiev is tense, the goals of the counteroffensive have not been achieved, no matter how much the General Staff tries to justify itself to Bankova with the successes at #Rabotino.
❗️Therefore, the AFU command received the task to occupy #Tokmak, #Bakhmut and #Kremennaya not later than November, without considering the losses of personnel, who are already pretty shattered.
🔹 In order to divert attention with the beginning of the offensive, the enemy can carry out drone strikes on military facilities (primarily airfields and ammunition depots) and civilian targets in #Crimea and #Donetsk, and intensify the sending of SRGs into our territory to carry out high profile sabotage. Several such groups have already been prepared on the territory of #Kharkov region.
🔹 In the general turmoil, the AFU does not exclude the possibility of forcing the #Dnieper River in the #Kherson region, in connection with which the accumulation of light engine boats continues in the areas where the enemy forces are concentrated on the right bank.
📌 So the next two weeks could be hot.
📜 MultiXAM
https://t.me/sitreports/15854
Posted by: Down South | Oct 3 2023 14:15 utc | 8
The Jamestown Foundation released a piece in July where it estimated that the population of Ukraine comes to around 20 million. See "Ukraine’s Manpower Requirements Reaching a Critical Threshold" by Hlib Parfonov.
According to classified and partially open-source data, as of January 1, 2022, the population of Ukraine was 31 million, while the State Statistics Service of Ukraine reports 34 million, though there are problems with the methodology used to arrive at this number (RBK, September 16, 2022). The population dropping from 48 million to 31 million in 20 years is normal, especially as Ukraine has experienced multiple crises and outmigration waves during that period. According to Eurostat, approximately 4.9 million Ukrainians received residence permits in the European Union alone between 2014 and 2022 (Ec.europa.eu, accessed July 25) and approximately 3 million did so in Russia (Ukrinform, April 23, 2018). Subtracting from this figure the number of Ukrainians in the occupied territories (approximately 2 million), as well as those who left the country, the current estimate for Ukraine’s population comes to around 20 million.
Posted by: Rock IT! | Oct 3 2023 14:16 utc | 9
Passerby,nr 6
You are completely off the mark about not being able to afford to have children. I have supervised a number of PhD theses looking at why people have children or not, admittedly these studies were mostly done in the global south. But the most important factor for having children was the prevailing social culture that gave social status to those who had many children. While the reverse was true for women's educational level, economic factors played a rather subordinate role in both cases. Women in communist countries had relatively high levels of education.
Posted by: On the roof | Oct 3 2023 14:18 utc | 10
Anyone who looks at Ukraine will say: do not seek war with the Russians, nor friendship with the Americans; both are terrible.
Posted by: Passerby | Oct 3 2023 14:20 utc | 11
@ontheroof
Income plays in negatively in this equation. The more you can afford children the less you typically have.
Wonder if anybody here is familiar with ed dutton (thejollyheretic). He has some very curious/strange/questionable theories based on fertility and iq.
One of his arguments is iq is highly heritable - the only people reproducing above replacement level in the west are people with an iq below 90 (and highly religious communities)- thus we will experience social collapse because of idiocracy - the only places who weather the storm are highly religious and conservative enclaves.
Posted by: Orgel | Oct 3 2023 14:24 utc | 12
It's interesting to note that on the population "pyramid" there is a peak in the approximately 26-38 year-old demographic range. These are births from (again, approximately) 1982-1994.
So it seems that birth-rates were somewhat maintained before, during, and after, the dissolution of the USSR.
The drop from there is probably a mix of outward migration, the economic situation, and a cultural shift Westwards (declining birth-rates in the West are not a new phenomenon, and have a range of causal factors).
It is indeed a terrible trend, to fade into non-existence due to lack of procreation-positiveb intercourse.
Posted by: Jon_in_AU | Oct 3 2023 14:24 utc | 13
If Ukraine would draft these if could probably find a few ten-thousand additional soldiers. But it would also strip itself of its future elite.
Given how utterly corrupt the country is, would it be such a bad thing long term for the ranks of the elite to be replenished with less inter-generational wealth?
But I suspect the ones in Ukrainian universities aren't the elite, the ones in Western ones are. The students now in Ukraine are probably just the middle class.
Posted by: Altai | Oct 3 2023 14:33 utc | 14
For those interested in statistics
Servicemen from Ukraine killed - age group - in the proxy war led by the USA. This does not include foreign mercenaries.
Age-Group
18
25
30
40
> 55 = 57,394
-----------------------------
Grand Total = 521,765
Posted by: AI | Oct 3 2023 14:36 utc | 15
On the roof @12
Studies being relative to global South skew the results.
In global South or, better, developing countries, having a lot of children is not a status or not only.
In poor countries children are, unfortunately, a resource, they are needed in order to have them work from a very young age.
This happened in the past also in western countries.
Posted by: Mario | Oct 3 2023 14:36 utc | 16
Passerby had a near miss. Communist countries had very reliable environment, there was no worry about the future, what kind of education and jobs your children will have, will they afford their own place to live (that was quite slow to get, but few years after marriage you would get it) and so on. Transition shock removed all that. Then there was a slow climb back, which was reversed in Ukraine as the spindle-shaped demographic graph shows.
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Oct 3 2023 14:37 utc | 17
Try again. First one did not work.
18 < x <= 25 (52,177) ; 25 < x <= 30 (88,700) ; 30 < x <= 40 (146,094) ; 40 < x <= 55 (177,400) ; x> 55 (57,394)
Grand Total 521,765 so far.
Posted by: AI | Oct 3 2023 14:38 utc | 18
Former prime minister of Ukraine, Nikolay Azarov says there are currently only 23 million people in Kiev-controlled Ukraine.
What the media hides. @narrative_hole on Twitter, October 2, 2023⚡️🇺🇦 Former Prime Minister of Ukraine:
“There are 23 million people left in the country, only 3.5 million can continue to fight and Ukrainian able-bodied youth are leaving en masse”
This age pyramid from 2023 says that only 1.3% of Ukrainians are men between 20 and 25 years old. Of the 23 million, 1.3% is 299,000. If Ukraine has lost 300,000 men killed — as many people now claim — then this age cohort might have been eliminated to the last man.
The upside-down pyramid is even worse for women. Only 1% of Ukrainians are women between 20 and 25 years old. The largest age cohort is women of between 60 and 65 years old, who constitute 4.7% of the total population. Even the last cohort born under Stalin's rule, now 70 to 75 years old, is 3.7% or 3.7 times larger than the 20 and 25 years olds.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Oct 3 2023 14:41 utc | 19
Posted by: AI | Oct 3 2023 14:38 utc | 21
May I enquire as to your source?
Posted by: Jon_in_AU | Oct 3 2023 14:42 utc | 20
As I was comparing "Demography of XXX" in Wikipedia (where b should get his graphics), I was surprised by a sudden drop in births in Poland in the last two years. Did war fears developed in 2021 already? Did a triumph of Catholic fanatics scare the women?
To some extend, drop in populations is a good step in addressing global warming and no-growth prosperity for humanity, but too much of it is definitely detrimental... how to offer hope for the future to the young people? Too few people, least of all in governments, think about it.
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Oct 3 2023 14:45 utc | 21
Mario 17
No it does not, since the global birthrate is presently 2.3, and all regions except Sub-Saharan Africa has a rate below replacement level. It can varies between countries. For instance Israel has a high birth rate as well as Nigeria, while Iran has a birthrate around 1.6%.
Posted by: On the roof | Oct 3 2023 14:45 utc | 22
Sorry piotr, you have drunken the coolaid.
Zero growth and reducing the population to fight climate change are globofascist agitprop.
Posted by: Orgel | Oct 3 2023 14:54 utc | 23
@Posted by: On the roof | Oct 3 2023 14:00 utc | 7
@Posted by: On the roof | Oct 3 2023 14:18 utc | 12
I'm intrigued. You state: "I have supervised a number of PhD theses looking at why people have children or not...", so I assume that you are a mid-level academician with commensurate communication abilities. But in your earlier comment you assert: "...the global population growth rate is 2.3 per cent, while the replacement rate is 2.1." Excuse me?
Population in the world is growing at a rate of around 0.88% per year in 2023 (down from 0.98% in 2020, and 1.06% in 2019). The current population increase is estimated at around 70 million people per year. Annual growth rate reached its peak in the late 1960s, when it was at around 2%.
Source: Worldometer: World Population (n.b. this platform appears to block comments containing links to Worldometer)
I have to guess that you have somehow confused fertility rate (number of children per woman) with population growth rate (%). Very bizarre for someone who supervises doctoral theses...
Posted by: tawharanui | Oct 3 2023 15:01 utc | 24
@Posted by: AI | Oct 3 2023 14:38 utc | 18
Thanks.
Posted by: tawharanui | Oct 3 2023 15:02 utc | 25
Rock IT! | Oct 3 2023 14:16 utc | 11
...Subtracting from this figure the number of Ukrainians in the occupied territories (approximately 2 million)...
This number is rather 6 million. My estimate:
Area // popul. (mi.) // year // RF control share (guess) // RF control (mi.)
DPR // 2.30 // 2018 // 80% // 1.84
LPR // 1.49 // 2019 // 80% // 1.19
Cherson oblast // 1.03 // 2020 // 40% // 0.41
Zaporoshe oblast // 1,64 // 2022 // 40% // 0.66
Crimea // 2,34 // 2023 // 100% // 2.34
-> Total 6,44 million
These 6.4 million should be subtracted from the census numbers (May 13, 2023, see pic in source), which counted 23.4 million. I'm pretty sure, Kiew did not write off these territories and people. So, pretty likely, there are 17 millon residents left under Kiew's control.
By the way, by reducing the total from 23 to 17 million, one can assume that likewise the available draftable male population reduces from 7 to around 5 million and the pool of draftable suitable reserves from 3.5 to 2.6 million. With observed 1 million irretrievable losses (KIA and crippled) in 20 month, accelerating loss rate, growing difficulties with conscription in a depopulating environment, exhaustion to the last Ukrainian seems nearer than one might think.
Posted by: OttoE | Oct 3 2023 15:04 utc | 26
Putin is standing in the way of a quick end to the war. The invasion tangled the NATO-Russia knot much more than it needed to be.
And people always talk about how Russia's own age demographics spell disaster for the country, due to a low birth rate and gaps because of war.
Posted by: Orgel | Oct 3 2023 14:54 utc | 23
Dude, you use less resources you don't need to pollute as much. How is that globofascist agitprop?
Posted by: Inkan1969 | Oct 3 2023 15:05 utc | 27
To the many comments re: Africa's demographics
It has been shown, across cultures and countries, that as girls are educated on a par with boys, birthrates go down. Women that have attended high school have far fewer children than women who have no or little schooling.
The African population explosion came about because well-meaning white doctors dramatically reduced the very high levels of infant mortality in the continent after WWII. However, this was done without changing the cultural norm of having many children (the 3rd world pension plan: have 10 kids, watch 5 die before age 2, another before age 10, and hope one of the remaining three can look after you in your old age). So there has been a huge increase in population that will not be mitigated until the education of women increases.
That is happening more and more, and the proliferation of the WISP (wireless internet smart phone) is going to help as well. The problem is correcting itself; how long we can live with the crowds while waiting is an issue.
Posted by: FrankDrakman | Oct 3 2023 15:05 utc | 28
Perhaps the lower birth rate (in Western countries) has something to do with the Morning After pill?
Posted by: dh | Oct 3 2023 15:13 utc | 29
tawharanui
I recognise that this sounds strange. Of course, it should not be population growth, but number of children per women in fertile age. Excuse me.
Posted by: On the roof | Oct 3 2023 15:14 utc | 30
Sorry piotr, you have drunken the coolaid.
Zero growth and reducing the population to fight climate change are globofascist agitprop.
Posted by: Orgel | Oct 3 2023 14:54 utc | 23
Amen!
Our enemy isn't Russia or the global south
Our common enemy is the self anointed elites of the West who are exploiting Anthropogenic Global Warming Theology as a pretext to systematically exterminate the vast majority of the human race.
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Oct 3 2023 15:23 utc | 31
@Posted by: On the roof | Oct 3 2023 14:45 utc | 22
"all regions except Sub-Saharan Africa has a rate below replacement level"
No, not true. The fertility rate in Southeast Asia is above 2.1 up to 2023, and falls below from 2024. In the combined Southwest Asia and South Asia regions, the rate stays above 2.1 until 2027.
Sources: https://www.population-trends-asiapacific.org/data/sea
https://www.population-trends-asiapacific.org/data/sswa
Posted by: tawharanui | Oct 3 2023 15:23 utc | 32
#1
> To be fair I dont think Russias demographics are that great.
I really wish I saved the post, but a demographer made a strong case that Russia's pro-natal policies have largely stabilized the population situation. You actually get paid by the government to make babies, people even call it "Putins money".
I'm an American in Russia and this is anecdotal, but there are young kids everywhere. Our next door neighbor has four of them, many woman now have two. My wife and I made one (and yes, we got Putins money). I also think there will be a baby-boom after the war.
Posted by: Datcha42 | Oct 3 2023 15:24 utc | 33
Poor economic conditions always reduce birth rates, as happened in the US during the Depression..But the effects of educating women and living in cities are much worse..Basically, population growth is driven by less educated women living in the countryside, like the Amish..
Posted by: pyrrhus | Oct 3 2023 15:26 utc | 34
@ orgel #12
"One of his arguments is iq is highly heritable - the only people reproducing above replacement level in the west are people with an iq below 90 (and highly religious communities)- thus we will experience social collapse because of idiocracy - the only places who weather the storm are highly religious and conservative enclaves."
Perhaps that explains why the coming global extinction is unimportant to them (and why occupied Palestine is), with moron level IQ. They believe the fairy tale of zombie jesus returning and taking them home.
Posted by: hedlykarok | Oct 3 2023 15:32 utc | 35
Posted by: Orgel | Oct 3 2023 14:24 utc | 12
...the only people reproducing above replacement level in the west are people with an iq below 90 (and highly religious communities)...
Does unscrupulousness (to avoid an overused N-word) count as "religious"? This could further explain Ursula's productivity.
-------
On occasion of this thread's discussion: One cannot appreciate enough China's one-child policy (meanwhile abandoned, did its job). A true model for those countries in a similar situation (all gains due to growth are eaten up by an exploding population). With PRC gaining an ever-growing foothold in the South, I have hope that this particular policy may find a few mimics. Of course, the globalists who fuel their growth with immigration (a subtle form of robbery) will cry foul, but who cares?
Posted by: OtttoE | Oct 3 2023 15:37 utc | 36
Makes me think of Devil's handmaid Micheal Ledeen's 'Creative Destruction' concept.
Seems he was a fan of Italian fascism from the Mussolini era. Much celebrated though by neocons of a particular persuasion early on but not so much as multiple deceptions were later exposed.
"Creative destruction is our middle name, both within our own society and abroad. We tear down the old order every day, from business to science, literature, art, architecture, and cinema to politics and the law. Our enemies have always hated this whirlwind of energy and creativity, which menaces their traditions (whatever they may be) and shames them for their inability to keep pace. Seeing America undo traditional societies, they fear us, for they do not wish to be undone. They cannot feel secure so long as we are there, for our very existence—our existence, not our politics—threatens their legitimacy. They must attack us in order to survive, just as we must destroy them to advance our historic mission."
https://historynewsnetwork.org/article/8124
"He is a former consultant to the United States National Security Council, the United States Department of State, and the United States Department of Defense."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Ledeen
Cry 'havoc', and let slip the dogs of war.
Posted by: bubbles | Oct 3 2023 15:38 utc | 37
This entire Christian Colonial SNAFU in Ukraine has become so dependent on juvenile claptrap, balderdash and wishful thinking, that it's reminding me of a circa 1968 song from South Africa called Master Jack by 4 Jacks & a Jill.
Some of the more resonant lines appear below:
...
You took a colored ribbon from out of the sky.
And taught me how to use it as the years went by,
To tie up all your problems and make them look neat.
And then to sell them to the people in the street.
It's a strange, strange world we live in, Master Jack.
You taught me all I know and I'll never look back.
It's a very strange world and I thank you, Master Jack.
I saw right through the way you started teachin' me now,
So someday soon you could get to use me somehow.
I thank you very much and know you've been very kind,
But I'd better move along before you change my mind.
It's a strange, strange world we live in, Master Jack
No hard feelings if I never come back.
It's a very strange world and I thank you, Master Jack.
You taught me all the things the way you'd like them to be.
But I'd like to see if other people agree.
It's all very interesting the way you disguise
But I'd like to see the world through my own eyes.
It's a strange, strange world we live in, Master Jack
No hard feelings if I never come back
You're a very strange man and I thank you, Master Jack.
You're a very strange man and I thank you, Master Jack.
You're a very strange man, aren't you, Master Jack?
Imo, the West is stuck in Master Jack territory and can't escape.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Oct 3 2023 15:39 utc | 38
tawharanui, nr 32
Again, I recognise that I would have been better off breaking the figures down further, as I did so for North and Sub-Saharan Africa. But the trend is clear and it seems to be moving fast, which means that we will probably have an opposite problem to what has been the main discourse in the past - overpopulation.
Posted by: On the roof | Oct 3 2023 15:43 utc | 39
I have to guess that you have somehow confused fertility rate (number of children per woman) with population growth rate (%). Very bizarre for someone who supervises doctoral theses...
Posted by: tawharanui | Oct 3 2023 15:01 utc | 24
Not really, and may explain why so much b*llsh*t flows from academics and academia in general.
Posted by: Phil R | Oct 3 2023 15:51 utc | 40
Contrary to B's concern for these demographic trends in the Ukraine, I can't help but think that the WEF & Bill Gates would consider the Ukraine as a successful testbed for both Eugenics, and the 'right-sizing' of the world's population.
This is not a bug, it's a feature of the NWO!
Posted by: Eric Blair | Oct 3 2023 15:56 utc | 41
You actually get paid by the government to make babies, people even call it "Putins money".
Posted by: Datcha42 | Oct 3 2023 15:24 utc | 33
Canada has had a similar system for years, it's called the Child Tax Benefit. Comes in every month and the amount per child has grown substantially in recent years to the point a woman with 3 children and an employed partner shouldn't need to work outside the home.
The concept has very old roots btw and the first example I know of began in New France, late 1600's to early 1700's time frame. People were paid well to have children and 14 or more children was common. Pay was enough to be the sole source of income.
King Louis also addressed a shortage of females in the early years by offering a nice sum of money, part up front, to any woman of child bearing age to go to the new World. They took literally anyone and the willing became known as filles du roi. It was a very interesting bit of history and the distribution system once they arrived even more so.
Posted by: bubbles | Oct 3 2023 16:08 utc | 42
You are welcome to ironise my mistake and use it as an excuse for the way universities work earlier, since I retired decades ago. But everyone can make serious mistakes, and if I had seen something similar in my role at the university, I would have first asked if you didn't mean..... But of course you are infallible, right?
Posted by: On the roof | Oct 3 2023 16:09 utc | 43
In the coming decades all northern hemisphere nations will start degrading in demographics. And the southern will surge starting with the Middle East. Then South America. And finally, Africa will explode and take over the world.
Posted by: Comandante | Oct 3 2023 13:44 utc | 1
The globalist premise is true for South Saharan Africa only if we make it true by subsidizing the movement of people. Otherwise overpopulation is local. Africa has already had several areas suffer from famine due to overpopulation.
In some of the Arabic countries the high population growth has already slowed for reasons that are unknown by me.
Posted by: Jmaas | Oct 3 2023 16:10 utc | 44
All for freedom and democracy. And busting out our fiscal system.
Posted by: Jose Garcia | Oct 3 2023 16:10 utc | 45
Ukraine's future:
Mail-order brides, trafficked children, influx of Israelis, post-conflict mine-incidents involving civilians, prosthetic appendages on all men in their prime.
The Ukrainian-Slav: the poor, unwitting pawn lied to by the west.
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Oct 3 2023 16:13 utc | 46
Poor economic conditions always reduce birth rates, as happened in the US during the Depression..But the effects of educating women and living in cities are much worse..Basically, population growth is driven by less educated women living in the countryside, like the Amish..
Posted by: pyrrhus | Oct 3 2023 15:26 utc | 34
---
One can also argue differently. Without a state-organized social network (which is mainly present in highly industrialized countries), the only pension provision is a family with as many descendants as possible. Poverty needs lots of children to send money home. A general social prosperity can do without it.
The main catalysts for overpopulation would therefore be widespread poverty and a lack of fair distribution.
Posted by: Nobody | Oct 3 2023 16:16 utc | 47
Who does the work in Ukraine? Not enough young healthy people left to take care of business. Here in States guys in their forties and fifties are doing heavy work that was once done by young men. The young of course only work with their thumbs. Nothing would get done here at all if not for the constantly recruited army of immigrants.
Ukraine does not have immigrants.
Posted by: oldhippie | Oct 3 2023 16:17 utc | 48
Listen, is it possible to discuss this whole overpopulation/climate here?
I dont get how anybody believes in overpopulation as a problem. I see no sign that there are too many people on the planet. There are less hungry people in the world than 100 years ago. And that despite the fact that (at least in europe) there is a lot less land used for agriculture than lets say 50 years ago. There is much more food produced than needed and obeseity is a bigger problem than hunger. Its not evan true that humans have settled out the land because the 6 billion added people settled in cities. While some 10 or 20% of people lived in cities in 1900 its now around 70%.
We know on the other hand that civilizations collapse when the population shrinks (for a million very obvious reasons).
My question thus is: Why does anybody conclude that overpopulation is a problem?
Its similar to the climate question. There is zero indication that the world is going to end evan if temperatures rose 3 more degrees.it will cause problems, sure, but it wouldnt be the first time that arctica was ice free. Nothing is pointing to an existential crises.
So how have you come to your conclussions?
Posted by: Orgel | Oct 3 2023 16:20 utc | 49
Slavic women have been an export comodity across eastern Europe, Russia, and especially Ukraine since the collapse of the USSR. While I believe female migration from Russia has fallen off over the past two decades, "mail order brides" continue to be a hot commodity in Ukraine. The conflict has not diminished this, and Ukrainian demographics will likely continue their dismal trend for the foreseeable future (except in the areas integrated with Russia).
Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 3 2023 16:25 utc | 50
@ oldhippie | Oct 3 2023 16:17 utc | 50
same deal here in canada..
Posted by: james | Oct 3 2023 16:27 utc | 51
Posted by: Orgel | Oct 3 2023 16:20 utc | 51
we didnt evolve in a world that hot, it's going to cause massive problems. the world will be here in any case, but our civilization may not. as for overpopulation, why does it need to constantly increase? why not stability or a slight decrease? we don't have infinite resources on this planet.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Oct 3 2023 16:28 utc | 52
Our common enemy is the self anointed elites of the West who are oil company executives, banksters, war lords. They exploit Anthropogenic Global Warming to claim its is a plot to systematically exterminate the vast majority of the human race, while their plan to achieve global full spectrum supremacy systematically exterminates useless eaters through war and environmental destruction. Subjects to the authority of these elites accept their dominance and the degradation of the biosphere as a natural outcome of the human condition because of indoctrination.
Posted by: Wilikins | Oct 3 2023 16:29 utc | 53
Organ you are right. Overpopulation is "no" problem, because we don't have it, but a distributional problem. And as it now stands, the problem will rather be what you point at. That is, within one or two decades, the problem will be the reverse. A rapidly declining population and an inverted age pyramid. How will this be handled in a civilised way.
Posted by: On the roof | Oct 3 2023 16:30 utc | 54
Those who went to EU controlled part of Europe, most likely won't return to Ukraine. The remnant of Ukraine (meaning, the potential part controlled by the west) will be left bag-holder for all their newly found debt to the west in coming years. That part will become literally hell in terms of taxation, repression of financial and social rights and servitude. Not to mention, that part of Ukraine is set to become the test bed of the WEF reset.
The western controlled part of Ukraine, few will want to live there, mostly pensioners and crippled people.
Some, still non-brainwashed people will integrate in Russia. Most have already gone to EU.
The Russian controlled part of Ukraine will be free of debts, slavery and servitude. But that area too, will most likely be sparsely populated. Which is both good and bad. Good, because it diminishes risk of Nato managing to operate a partisan campaign. Secondly, it's bad because it will just be that - sparsely populated territory with relatively high upkeep costs.
Either way, it seems that the objective is that there will be eventually a neutral buffer Ukraine. And regarding the debts owed to the west - no one will ever manage this debt - they will be written off, with the EU left an industrial wasteland and in bad shape too.
Post SMO, Russia will focus on building up organizations with the non-west.
The West will be left as a playground for Bill Gates agricultural and medical experiments and Soros' social experiments.
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 3 2023 16:31 utc | 55
@51
Overpopulation is Shure a problem. There are only finite resources that can sustain only a finite number of people.
Moreover, western people use much more resources than global South people.
It won't be possible, at now, to ensure the same living style of west to all the people in the world.
Shrinking population pose some problems too.
Evergrowing GDP, that is a contradiction by itself, is not possible with a shrinking population.
Some of the welfare, such as pensioning system, can't be sustained if the working people are less or much less than the retired.
Posted by: Mario | Oct 3 2023 16:34 utc | 57
I dont get how anybody believes in overpopulation as a problem.
Posted by: Orgel | Oct 3 2023 16:20 utc | 51
---
It would be interesting if you could elaborate on this point in more detail. For example, why does nature prevent the overpopulation of a certain animal species? Why is maintaining balance so important?
Posted by: Nobody | Oct 3 2023 16:36 utc | 58
Posted by: Orgel | Oct 3 2023 16:20 utc | 51
we didnt evolve in a world that hot, it's going to cause massive problems. the world will be here in any case, but our civilization may not. as for overpopulation, why does it need to constantly increase? why not stability or a slight decrease? we don't have infinite resources on this planet.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Oct 3 2023 16:28 utc | 54
To make exorbitant profits and bribe politicians you need "growth". In a stable economy the justification for all this destabilizing corrupt bullshit does not exist. Only the prospect of yet more carrots will keep the rabbits jumping. The problem is that the US citizens consumers bought into it hook, line, and sinker. The family-farming WWII vets I grew up among would not have done that, which is why they waited until the 80s to give another try at buying everything out.
I have considered everything done since Reagan as disastrous and stupid on the thesis that we would wind up just about where we are now. I remember realizing around 1982 that yep even after Vietnam they were not going to give it up.
Posted by: Bemildred | Oct 3 2023 16:39 utc | 59
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66984944
They confirming what we have all known for about a year now. The fat lady is singing
Posted by: Scot1and | Oct 3 2023 16:41 utc | 60
In light of Ukraines lack of fighting manpower now would be the right momment for Russia to take Odessa.
Time of year.
Strategic importance (several)
Up comming election this year UK US.
Get Wagner in there and fight it from the inside outward.
The local population would welcome Russia with open arms.
Crimia would be safer as a result.
Posted by: Mark2 | Oct 3 2023 16:44 utc | 61
The GDP chart is deeply misleading. It does not report REAL GDP corrected for increases in prices. Real GDP is under (approximately) 60% of 1989. Obviously real GDP per capita looks somewhat better dues to population decline.
Posted by: md | Oct 3 2023 16:46 utc | 62
Nobody hit the nail on the head....balance (and moderation) is the key.
If every vehicle got 200mpg, fossil fuels would not be an issue. If 60% of produced food was not wasted, hunger could disappear. If the 1% didn't have to have 10 castle-size homes, megayachts and private jets, they would not need more wealth than the bottom 90%. etc, etc
However humans are pure evil and destroy their host like the virus they are.
Posted by: hedlykarok | Oct 3 2023 16:46 utc | 63
@ pretzelattack | Oct 3 2023 16:28 utc | 54
the corporations have been calling the shots... walmart wants more customers to push up the profits.. economical growth over environmental concerns... it ain't working for the planet and the idea of unlimited and endless growth can't work on a planet with limited resources and etc. etc.. most everyone knows this, but making the changes is going to be difficult... birth rates going down will be part of it.. the corporations are not going to be happy and the politicians who support them are going to fight what is coming tooth and nail..
Posted by: james | Oct 3 2023 16:50 utc | 64
The fewer humans on earth (including in the developed world), the higher the standard of living for all ... undifferentiated growth is not a good for its own sake.
When I was born the world population was about three billion ... did anyone complain about too few people back then? A return to that would be a good start.
Posted by: Caliman | Oct 3 2023 16:54 utc | 65
It’s not a problem. A law can be passed to draft Ukrainian women into state-run nurseries where they will be forcibly inseminated to produce new Ukrainians for the glory of the Galician master race. I’m sure the Europeans will support it, as nothing can be kept off the table when it comes to defending European values, that is, prohibiting Russian-speaking Ukrainians to speak Russian and prohibiting Ukrainians to celebrate the victory of the Red Army over Nazi Germany.
Posted by: S | Oct 3 2023 16:56 utc | 66
Well it may be disgusting for NATO countries to tell Ukraine they need to send more men to death but Ukraine is taking the money. Take the money, advice and control always follows.
Posted by: WG | Oct 3 2023 16:59 utc | 67
@pretzel
As far as we know humans evolved in subsaharan africa. They lived through periods in which it was (on average) 8 deg. Cel. Warmer than today and the athmosphere consisted of 3to4 times the amount and percentage of co2 compared to 2020.
There is NO sign that a 1200ppm co2 in the athmosphere causes any problems to the planet or humans (we have been there, nothing happened). On the other hand hand, if the co2 concentration fell below 200ppm it would be game over for most life on the planet.
I have another question: since when in the 3 mio+ years history of mankind do humans "manage" climate or population? Thats hybris.
Posted by: Orgel | Oct 3 2023 17:01 utc | 68
@caliman
Can you explain your logic to me?
Back in the day, when there were only 1 billion people, 900 million lived under terrible conditions (of less than a dollar a day by todays money). Now hardly anybody suffers such conditions. Where is the logic?
Posted by: Orgel | Oct 3 2023 17:05 utc | 69
There is much more food produced than needed and obeseity is a bigger problem than hunger. Its not evan true that humans have settled out the land because the 6 billion added people settled in cities. While some 10 or 20% of people lived in cities in 1900 its now around 70%.
Posted by: Orgel | Oct 3 2023 16:20 utc | 51
Quantity doesn't equate to quality and much of this 'new food' barely resembles real food except for appearance and in some cases like the common potato, what you get in most bags today would have been culled in the past and either used for animal feed, making moonshine or thrown on a pile to rot.
I remember seeing an article in a leading US MSM a headline that said 'How did we ruin the tomato?'
Food production has been geared largely to fast food corp's needs because that's how a large percentage of urbanites feed themselves these days. A tell is the amount of fast food chain ads on sees on TV.
Lastly do you buy any of those horrendously expensive deli meats if so how much do you pay per lb or kg? Oh that's right, they price them per 100 grams to reduce sticker shock.
Posted by: bubbles | Oct 3 2023 17:06 utc | 70
Of course if Ukraine loses the conflict it will be ruined. They went all-in at the beginning, rejecting peaceful settlement of the core issue at hand. Consequences be damned. They can thank Boris Johnson for that.
Ukraine was an artificial construct anyway, with a divided population stretching for centuries. American nation building only helped radicalize one part of the population to the stage of becoming anti-russia.
The consequences of the demise of the western project-Ukraine will be felt much wider in the region. Injustices and the looting done to whole nations after the 90s will start to reverse. Many groups will find themselves on the wrong side of history (again!). The Albanians come to mind.
Posted by: alek_a | Oct 3 2023 17:08 utc | 71
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 3 2023 17:18 utc | 72
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 3 2023 17:19 utc | 73
There was an interesting article posted on unz.com in the past few days on the demographics issue. Amused me as well
Posted by: Guy L’Estrange | Oct 3 2023 17:19 utc | 74
@all and specialy b.
Just in case somebody missed this article!
Absolut must read!
The war in Ukraine is now officialy the last battle of WW2.
Posted by: El.Lissitzky | Oct 3 2023 17:19 utc | 75
@nobody
Lets talk it through. So nature keeps balance in the end. You take out a carnivore species which means its prey will reprodruce exorbitantly. The prey species will then overuse its resources until it cant sustain any longer. In a next step a big amount of the prey species will die off. Then it is regulated again.
Ok. So taking this scenario for our overpopulation question would mean that at a certain point humans will have used to many resources to sustain all of us. At this point starvation/war/... set in and a proportion of the population dies off until the threshhold is at a level that humans and environment are back at balance. Correct?
So all of it is hypothetical because nobody knows where and when humans reach this point.
And your solution is: because this scenario MAY come true, we should kill off x% (regulate birthrates or whatever) of humans beforehand so that we can exclude the possibility of it happening (some time or never) in the future?
I am sorry, all of it strikes me as doomsday cult. Yes, there could be a meterorite hitting planet earth next year, but because of this possibility we shouldnt turn the world upside down.
But i am curious to hear your thoughts.
Posted by: Orgel | Oct 3 2023 17:19 utc | 76
One of his arguments is iq is highly heritable - the only people reproducing above replacement level in the west are people with an iq below 90 (and highly religious communities)- thus we will experience social collapse because of idiocracy - the only places who weather the storm are highly religious and conservative enclaves.
Posted by: Orgel | Oct 3 2023 14:24 utc | 12
-------------------------------------------------
Complete bullshit: Religious communities are full of brainless nitwits. Just go to a Pentecostal Church service on any given Sunday and watch the pew jumpers. The more conservative churches are generally made up of better educated members, who are likely to have less children than snake handlers.
Posted by: Ed | Oct 3 2023 17:32 utc | 77
@babbel
I am not argueing with you about the quality of food.
I just wanna give you another perspective. I grew up on a farm in the alps. When i was young (in the 1990s) it seemed half the village consisted of farmers. All of them were small (you would call them 'sustainable' today) farms, living of 20 cows or sheep, a little mais or corn and forrest. My familys farm had 64ha (dont know how many acres that is) and was one of the biggest around.
Now, 30 years later, there are maybe 20% of these farms left and half of them have just 5 or 7 cows as a hobby. The rest of us gave it up, because the EU didnt want small scale farms but industrial complexes and started to pay better money for NOT cultivating the land. As a result all the land that was producing, meat, milk, corn, mais and other vegetables isnt used any more.
At the same time you are telling me that we cant feed the planet? Or that the quality of food is bad?
Well, if so, its intentional.
Posted by: Orgel | Oct 3 2023 17:32 utc | 78
After its final capitulation, the 'west' should call for volunteers to impregnate Ukrainian women living abroad before sending them back.
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Oct 3 2023 17:37 utc | 79
But everyone can make serious mistakes, and if I had seen something similar in my role at the university, I would have first asked if you didn't mean..... But of course you are infallible, right?
Posted by: On the roof | Oct 3 2023 16:09 utc | 43
We can all make mistakes and I think you're more diplomatic approach is good. Remember that more replies may come in due to people not having seen your response yet.
Notice that I said your with an apostrophe. That's a side effect of voice dictation that's easily missed and not a product of illiteracy.
Posted by: David G Horsman | Oct 3 2023 17:39 utc | 80
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Oct 3 2023 14:45 utc | 21
Did Poland jab their young women with the toxic mRNA jabs?
They are known to destroy fertility. Many countries are finding significantly lower live birth rates started in sync with tbe jab rollouts.
Posted by: Mary | Oct 3 2023 17:44 utc | 81
In the hope to discuss one of these issues seriously i keep replying.
@Ed
Your dislike of certain groups misses the point.
Most sections of society do not reproduce. The section of society that doesnt reproduce at all is liberal elites. I may not like it, but these are, in principle intelligent people. But they dont reproduce. In other words: they die off because they prefer to cut off the genitalia of their kids (if they evan have any). At the other hand low iq people continue to reproduce. Conservative elites do reproduce.
First i want to stress that its not my theory, i am thknking about its validities pros and cons and i do invite you to do it with me.
But to finish it and give you a picture.
Blm and qanon are very similar in nature. Both represent and have the form of religions or cults or value systems. If you reduce the world to these two movements qanon will win out, because the value system of the qanon crowd is geared towards family and kids while blm values are anti family and anti kids. Thus within 50 years qanon will have outproduced blm, while blm has no next generation.
Have you got it? Do you wanna discuss the thesis?
Posted by: Orgel | Oct 3 2023 17:45 utc | 82
My (rough) math has a dramatically different population
Population within Kiev controled territory
Starting point 34 million as of 2014
Less
5 million fled to Europe 2014-21
5 million fled to Europe 2022-23
3 million fled to Russia 2014-21
3 million fled to Russia 2022-23
7 million living in DPR, LPR, Crimea
————————
11 million population in Kiev controled territory 3Q2023
Posted by: Exile | Oct 3 2023 17:46 utc | 83
"We know on the other hand that civilizations collapse when the population shrinks (for a million very obvious reasons)."
Well list your top 10... Or 3. We can't mind read you.
"My question thus is: Why does anybody conclude that overpopulation is a problem?
So how have you come to your conclussions?"
Posted by: Orgel | Oct 3 2023 16:20 utc | 49
Animal studies. That and systems analysis. Obviously population has limits. But after decades of interest my conclusions are limited.
So can you expand on that? Respectfully, might you be oversimplifying?
Posted by: David G Horsman | Oct 3 2023 17:54 utc | 84
They have to resort to events from 7 (seven) years ago:
Classic DM.
Posted by: Verdant | Oct 3 2023 17:55 utc | 85
Piotr Berman | Oct 3 2023 14:37 utc | 17
*** Communist countries had very reliable environment, there was no worry about the future, what kind of education and jobs your children will have, will they afford their own place to live (that was quite slow to get, but few years after marriage you would get it) and so on. Transition shock removed all that. ***
See the NATO "West" as it has been shaped by those who rule and their big-business partners, with its neoliberal inflicted insecurities, stresses and the long running, deliberate promotion of generational conflict (albeit initially for commercial marketing purposes).
Deliberate erosion of continuity and real (rather than marketing or political establishment synthesised) identity.
And now the fanatical -- and undeniably State-endorsed -- wokist/trans assault.
Not what the general public ever wanted (but that would be "populist" scream the liberals) -- denial or outright contradiction of which is a key element in modern so-called 'democracy'.
So what results.......
Effective, creeping genocide by mass-media unrecognised / unreported means?
Yet that isn't all; there is an ongoing imposition of almost unlimited immigration -- again not wanted by most of the indigenous population, and into a (non-human) resource situation that's already dangerously unsustainable -- under any excuse, however absurd.
Because -- for those who rule and their top apparatchiks, NGOs and monopoly-capitalist economic system -- it happens to be profitable, and further fragments society plus whatever remains of former identity at ruled-people level, thus making *their own* corrupt, treacherous positions and status even more secure.
Posted by: Cynic | Oct 3 2023 17:58 utc | 86
Posted by: Orgel | Oct 3 2023 17:01 utc | 68
you are wrong in every respect. just on the african question alone. no temps were not 8 degrees warmer than today. we haven't experienced c02 concentrations or methane concentrations as high as this. what's hubristic is you think you know more about it than people who spend their lives studying the subject.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Oct 3 2023 18:04 utc | 87
@75
It's called planning or being responsible.
Your vision is to go full throttle because the worst scenario MAY be possible but not certain.
What if it unfortunately happens?
Same goes for the asteroids.
There are studies and missions that try to plan some actions in order to avoid an asteroid catastrophic collision.
Posted by: Mario | Oct 3 2023 18:12 utc | 88
Orgel #69 -
So you're comparing the pre-industrial and pre-scientific revolutions quality of life (when the world population was under a billion) with today's conditions? Yes, the average human life is currently better by far than in the past; but this is despite the enormous world population, not because of it. Seriously, can you imagine the entire world with, say, Norway's population density and development level?
Re you other comments, yes we have managed to feed everyone and will likely continue to do so (I hope) are we traverse the population maximum this century and then hopefully climb down. But this has entailed:
- Stripping the oceans of all harvestable fish
- taking over more and more lands (including Amazonia and other irreplaceable habitats) for arable crops, depriving all other species of habitat
- use of enormous quantities of oil/gas for agriculture ... oil/gas is modern food ... this is not sustainable
- much much more
A highly modern society with a voluntarily shrinking population (say, Japan or China or Russia) is not a problem and in fact is a necessity for better quality of life for all.
Posted by: Caliman | Oct 3 2023 18:13 utc | 89
"However humans are pure evil and destroy their host like the virus they are."
Posted by: hedlykarok | Oct 3 2023 16:46 utc | 63
You know that were just another type of animal and we aren't intrinsically good or evil.
But it's a thing about mammals that we can be very social and have values. LOL which led to your statement.
And from that point of view you basically nailed it. LOL. Not the virus part but the general sentiment. It seems undeniable that we are really destructive to our environment. The least controversial example being widespread pollution.
In my opinion Nature's ability to correct for these sorts of problems far exceeds our Technology's ability to mitigate that. At the moment I'm thinking about real pandemics not fake ones.
You know it's not that we are 98% chimpanzee, it's that we act like it.
Posted by: David G Horsman | Oct 3 2023 18:14 utc | 90
I wouldn't begrudge the Africans their shot at "world domination", but for the forseeable future for most parts of the world large and growing populations will remain more of a problem and hindrance than an actual chance.
I hope I'm wrong, but for now I see no reason to think so.
Besides, I've read an increasing number of analyses casting doubt on the idea that population is going to explode ANYWHERE, which, if true might be for the better even though it Brings all sorts of Problems as Well.
There are a number of studies from recent years that birthrates are starting to go down literally everywhere, all over the global south, the Arab world, even Africa, everywhere.
They indeed especially looked at Nigeria and a couple of other african countries and apparently that population growth has started to slow down in all of them, much faster than anybody thought possible.
So there is (probably) a trend that goes far beyond the global north.
On top of that the numbers of male infertility are going through the roof everywhere as well, aka sperm counts plummet.
From what I can discern, there will not be any population explosion anywhere, but instead Worldwide shrinking, perhaps of a dramatic collapse of population that might hit countries with some growth yet left harder, though on the other hand, one unfortunately can't exclude the possibility that thickly populated poorer countries that might have outgrown their carrying capacity could continue to be very vulnerable to various potential megadeath catastrophies.
Posted by: Snailslime | Oct 3 2023 18:17 utc | 91
Posted by: james | Oct 3 2023 16:50 utc | 64
Hi James. Systems of any description have limits. Like energy for example. It's a reality. A bedrock feature of the universe.
We're on a planet. The whole discussion follows from there.
Posted by: David G Horsman | Oct 3 2023 18:25 utc | 92
@horsman
Of course i am oversimplifying. What else do you expect me to do in a forum like this?
I guess I made my point quite clear though. Where is the indication that there too many people? And if you have indications, are you sure? And what is your worst case scenarios?
I am operating on the following assumption: lets say there is overpopulation. In that case we will have parts of the population die off. Lets say a billion out of 10 or 2 billions out of ten. Until the population is in balance again.
Now if the solution is "lets kill/manage reproduction so that only 5 billion steadily remain" then i reject the solution. 1. Because the cure is worse than the disease 2. Because there will be people who will whish to decide who is allowed to reproduce and whos not. And i regard this situation as way to dangerous to evan play with the idea.
As for the reasons why civilizations collapse... i will continue soon...
Posted by: Orgel | Oct 3 2023 18:26 utc | 93
One of the reasons the US and NATO provoked this war was population and demographics. With a huge number of male deaths (and maiming) in the age range of 20-45, the war has succeeded in wiping out the primary demographic obstacle to disaster capitalism, which is one of the end-phases of any modern war in a country with resources (including arable land). Keeping in mind that Russia (or "POOOOOTIN") never wanted or intended to annex any territory other than the far east and south of Ukraine and only for the purpose of R2P, there is going to be plenty of resource rich land left to Kiev when it's over.
The fewer males and male heads of household remaining, let alone those who hold and can defend the deeds to land in such areas, the cheaper (and in many cases easier) it will be for the likes of Cargill, Blackrock, Monsanto, etc. and extractive energy firms to acquire it. Of course, they will probably need to invest in some mine and ordnance sweeping services, but that's mostly a one-time up-front cost and relatively small compared to the value of the land and resources.
IOW - Globo-Cap's mission almost accomplished.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Oct 3 2023 18:30 utc | 94
Comandante | Oct 3 2023 13:44 utc | 1--
Yes, Russia has its own demographic crisis as I've commented on and provided primary document evidence about over the last several years, but it's not anything like Ukraine's. As noted by the map gracing the top of my article, "Additional Context for Crooke-Napolitano Chat: Weaponizing Ethnicity", on the eve of WW1 Ukraine didn't exist. As myself and many Russians have said and written, Ukraine is an artificial entity that never had any existence until after the Russian Civil War. If it had remained within Russia, what's now happening wouldn't be for there would never have been any independent Ukraine within which to keep Nazism alive for later use against USSR/Russia. The economy of the region would never have suffered (indeed, the fate of the USSR might even have been different), and the demographic problem would be similar to that of Russia as being caused by the genocide of Slavs by Germany in WW2.
Ahhhh I knew I wouldn't be disappointed! - What would a MoA thread be without the inevitable, fruitless, and contemptuous climate/weather/warming debate?!
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Oct 3 2023 18:33 utc | 96
I think DC/London, delusional though they were, anticipated a replay of the Crimean were the English gentry would once again "weaken Russia". Yes, they were saying the same thing they are saying today.
This time though, the Ottoman's play both Russia and the US for fools and this time the English-schoolboys laugh at the US instead of France. This time for London, the risk is considerably less. So, just like the last time London arranged for others to war on Russia, they have little incentive to end this human tragedy. Indeed, their ante is so small the monied-English-class have every incentive to this through to the bitterest of ends.
Posted by: S Brennan | Oct 3 2023 18:34 utc | 97
Passerby @ 5
1991 Lithuania had 3.7 million citizens; today it's 2.8 million. In 1991 Bulgaria had 8.5 million citizens; today it's 6.4 million. Under communism they had no money, but could afford to have children.
The USA and UK are turning everything they touch into Detroit and Northern England. No wonder sane countries are lining up to join the BRICS.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 3 2023 18:37 utc | 99
A law can be passed to draft Ukrainian women into state-run nurseries where they will be forcibly inseminated to produce new Ukrainians for the glory of the Galician master race. Posted by: S | Oct 3 2023 16:56 utc | 66
Margaret Atwood’s novel The Handmaid’s Tale (published in 1985) is a good template how to organize it even better. State-run nurseries are too expensive after all.
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Oct 3 2023 18:41 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
To be fair I dont think Russias demographics are that great.
They looked pretty pessimist last time I looked.
European demographics also look bleak after Ukraine and Russia.
In the coming decades all northern hemisphere nations will start degrading in demographics. And the southern will surge starting with the Middle East. Then South America. And finally, Africa will explode and take over the world.
Posted by: Comandante | Oct 3 2023 13:44 utc | 1