We were expecting a big offensive this fall, but there is still a shortage of shots and competencies. In the near future we can predict the capture of Avdeevka, or Kupyansk, or, if you are very lucky, Orekhov. I wouldn’t count on more. Although there is little hope that before the elections the army will try to give the president a big victory like the liberation of Kherson. But in an operation of this scale, there are just as many risks as there are benefits. The probability is below average.
After the elections, I would expect many serious changes in the defense department and big changes at the front. But they won’t be fast. So we can confidently plan for another year or two of the special military operation and the growth of our military economy. And finally, it is worth saying that to carry out an operation in Kharkov or Odessa, our troops need from 500 thousand to 1 million soldiers.
.
Posted by: MiniMO | Oct 30 2023 8:42 utc | 56
Say you can’t when you will 😂
Yes the 600.000 hidden in plain sight in the 2 new military regions

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 30 2023 21:12 utc | 203

pessimist @ 81 / newbie @ 97
Initially I thought it was a Russian Iranian Jedi move, but seeing how the USA first day had C130’s on the tarmac in …If the shoe fits… they don’t call the USA the Empire of Chaos for nothing.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 30 2023 21:00 utc |
100
Never considered as RF work, can’t just make up my mind about who’s leading and who’s tagging along

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 30 2023 21:17 utc | 205

An interesting aspect of the Gaza resupply by US/NATO to Israel is that it is quite likely to be very different from Ukraine.
Whilst there are reports of 10,000 level 155mm shells being diverted from Ukraine to Israel it seems to me, based on the munitions being used, that it will be bombs not shells that will be going into Israel. Conveniently being delivered direct, by mainly C-17, to the air bases that host the fighter bombers using them.
The strategic effect of this is quite interesting in that whereas the war in Ukraine has stripped NATO of amongst other things much/most of its artillery ammunition, the war in Gaza is now in a similar way stripping it of aircraft delivered munitions. At this rate the only US/NATO forces that will be able to fight a peer will be the navies, especially the US carriers. Then only for a while.
This has now really turned into a MIC profit opportunity blowout. The champagne will be flowing!

Posted by: JohninMK | Oct 30 2023 21:22 utc | 207

65 comments on the Ukraine thread.
430 on the Israel-Hamas thread.
Zelenski is so screwed….
Posted by: Alexander P | Oct 30 2023 14:03 utc | 66
Palestinians civilians, including children, are being killed at a much higher rate. The number of children killed exceeds 3,500 now which is many more than has happened in the Ukraine war.

Posted by: MiniMO | Oct 30 2023 21:26 utc | 209

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 30 2023 21:12 utc | 102
Last year I called this the Emil Kio strategy, after the Russian illusionist who famously performed in a circus tent, allowing 360 degree crowd coverage of all his actions on stage. With Western ISR giving similar coverage as Kio experienced, Russia has been using similar techniques, hiding things in plain sight, often using open source media. This piece quoted was a crude piece of misdirection, one wonders is Avdeevka the real axis of attack or is it an elaborate deception?

Posted by: Milites | Oct 30 2023 21:29 utc | 211

A majority of his caucus might balk at that, but those members have to deliver for Israel, and sooner rather than later. If the Speaker is adroit, he can sell them on the idea that getting tough with Ukraine will ultimately be a winner at the ballot box, both in the primry elections, and in the general elections.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 30 2023 18:51 utc | 88

Yes, Washington and it’s malleable public can go back to their dependable old nemesis and scapegoat, the Muslim world, that fits the US blame game mentality like a comfortable old shoe. The evil Russians did have some historical cold war cred, but nothing like the enmity that Islam generates among the Zionist Christians and their apocalyptic world view. Ukraine? What Ukraine.

Posted by: Mike R | Oct 30 2023 21:33 utc | 213

An analysis of the method used by Russia to down StormShadow Missiles…
https://t-me.translate.goog/s/milchronicles?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en
How “flying radars” help shoot down Storm Shadow missiles: analysis of the Military Chronicle
The Ukrainian Armed Forces began using missiles of this type back in May, and it took some time to find an effective countermeasure.
What happened?
On October 30, an air defense crew on duty over Crimea shot down eight Storm Shadow cruise missiles. This is the first mass destruction of missiles of this type, and it is also one of the most remarkable for a number of reasons. The missiles themselves, presumably, as in the first Storm Shadow strike on Lugansk in May 2023, were used in conjunction with ADM-160 MALD decoys, but were detected and shot down at a considerable distance from the target. A few days earlier, S-400 systems shot down several Ukrainian fighters at a range of more than 200 km. How was it possible to hit so many targets?
How was the interception carried out?
Most likely, the Storm Shadow cruise missiles were destroyed by new 40N6 anti-aircraft guided missiles with an active radar seeker. They appeared in 2018 and are capable of intercepting targets at an altitude of up to 35 km and a distance of up to 380 km. However, the air defense crews received target designation, presumably, from the “flying radar” – the A-50U aircraft.
Why do you need a “flying radar” if you have the S-400?
According to the Military Chronicle, the A-50U could detect eight cruise missiles and decoys at an altitude below 1000 m at a distance of more than 200 km, beyond the visibility of the stationary 92N6 radar. The use of a “flying radar” in this case was necessary to increase the chances of hitting the target. The S-400 illumination radar is capable of detecting Storm Shadow missiles at an altitude of 40 m from a distance of no more than 35 km. The A-50U operates at high altitude and can detect targets such as Storm Shadow at a range of 150-200 km.
Another combat scenario for the defeat of Storm Shadow: the coordinates of the approaching Storm Shadow were loaded in advance into the inertial navigation systems of anti-aircraft missiles. After this, new 48N6DM or 9M96DM missiles were launched towards the targets and hit eight Storm Shadow missiles outside the range of the ground radar.
Why is such an interception scheme needed?
This method makes it possible to hit cruise missiles long before they enter the final phase of their flight. This approach is safer than hitting targets closely because it allows more time for detection, preparation and destruction. However, this scheme is fully revealed when Ukrainian fighters are destroyed.
The radiation warning stations installed on the Ukrainian MiG-29A, Su-27 and Su-24MR do not warn the pilot about the approach of anti-aircraft missiles in advance, since there is no radiation from the ground radar. The on-board security system is triggered after the target has been captured by the anti-aircraft missile’s seeker. With this scheme, the APU pilot has only a few seconds left for an anti-missile maneuver, the chances of successful completion of which are extremely low: 40V6MD and 9M96DM missiles can maneuver with an overload of more than 30 G, which practically eliminates their disruption from the trajectory.
Those pesky Russians!
INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 30 2023 21:41 utc | 215

Regarding the 4* SU attack on Crimea using 8 storm shadows: that sounds like a suicidal mission if the planes came out of Western Ukraine.
Is it possible that they launched from the furthest eastern airports of Moldova or Romania already armed? That would be another NATO escalation, but Russia may have decided not to take bait at this time, as long as they can shoot down the missiles. Thoughts?

Posted by: scepticalSOB | Oct 30 2023 21:43 utc | 217

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 30 2023 21:12 utc | 102
Last year I called this the Emil Kio strategy, after the Russian illusionist who famously performed in a circus tent, allowing 360 degree crowd coverage of all his actions on stage. With Western ISR giving similar coverage as Kio experienced, Russia has been using similar techniques, hiding things in plain sight, often using open source media. This piece quoted was a crude piece of misdirection, one wonders is Avdeevka the real axis of attack or is it an elaborate deception?
Posted by: Milites | Oct 30 2023 21:29 utc | 106
Avdeevka is a TEST TUBE, test new approach , get casualty ratio, if casualty ratio compatible with budget (70-80.000 RF kia to at least 400.000 AFU Kia then go and share the love )
This is not fluffy war, it’s to escalate beyond bahkmut and even first week of SMO. This is the stuff of wwii legends …
May their deaths be worthwhile and get them a place at the table (not in Valhalla , too many Galicians trying to get there)

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 30 2023 21:53 utc | 219

Posted by: Mike R | Oct 30 2023 21:33 utc | 107
I think you’ll find that apocalyptic world views are not the monopoly of one religion.
Russians/Chinese are far preferred to the Muslims to be the chosen Western adversary, due to the MIC being able to leverage far more money from the threat they are perceived to create. Muslims have been singularly incompetent at building anything that threatens the West technologically, and though Iran talks a good game, most of her output is either comically absurd PR statements or resourceful innovations from reverse engineering programmes.
Russia/China on the other hand have lots of sexy sounding industrial sectors that threaten the West: quantum computers, hypersonic missiles, advanced AI, 5G, autonomous drones, rocketry etc, all excellent recruiters for the legion of MIC’s lobbyists on Capitol Hill. Follow the money, always follow the money.

Posted by: Milites | Oct 30 2023 22:00 utc | 221

An analysis of the method used by Russia to down StormShadow Missiles…
[…]
Those pesky Russians!
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 30 2023 21:41 utc | 108

This is how it is supposed to work, it isn’t some marvelous novel ingenuity.
As I was harping on for months.
The problem is that the AWACS aircraft wasn’t flying, likely because it simply wasn’t available, in turn because Russia went into this war unprepared.
On the other side, NATO has 24/7 AWACS coverage of the whole eastern flank, and the only thing that will allow cruise missiles to get through is how bad most of their AD systems are. But that isn’t something to rely on.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Oct 30 2023 22:11 utc | 223

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 30 2023 21:53 utc | 110
Not quite how the Russians use a correlation of forces and means approach, they already know the likely butchers bill beforehand, as all the previous 20+ months operational outcomes have been thoroughly digested (the Ukrainian offensive provided a lot of missing pieces); but I agree that this is the testing time, albeit with different connotations for both sides.

Posted by: Milites | Oct 30 2023 22:15 utc | 225

Not quite how the Russians use a correlation of forces and means approach, they already know the likely butchers bill beforehand, as all the previous 20+ months operational outcomes have been thoroughly digested (the Ukrainian offensive provided a lot of missing pieces); but I agree that this is the testing time, albeit with different connotations for both sides.
Posted by: Milites | Oct 30 2023 22:15 utc | 113
Previous months were nice “let them break their teeth agains our defense “ now it’s “how expensive to break their defenses “
And no particular interest on breaking their defenses, apart from wasting the remaining 1/2 mil AFU forces before they can throw fresh meat into the fray.

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 30 2023 22:22 utc | 227

Is it possible that they launched from the furthest eastern airports of Moldova or Romania already armed? That would be another NATO escalation, but Russia may have decided not to take bait at this time, as long as they can shoot down the missiles. Thoughts?
Posted by: scepticalSOB | Oct 30 2023 21:43 utc | 109

More likely they take off from Romania/Poland, touch down in Starokonstantinov to refuel and load missiles (or maybe not even that, just to refuel make it look like they are taking off from there), then launch the missiles, touch down briefly at another airfield to refuel, then bail out to NATO territory safety as quickly as possible.
Of course the Kremlin is well aware, just as it is well aware the IL-76s were destroyed in Pskov by a strike coming from Estonia/Lativa, but it doesn’t have the balls to put an end to it — at Valdai Karaganov once again raised the issue of the need to e.g. destroy Rzeszow, and was shot down by Putin — so expect the escalation to continue.
It looks like they finally activated the previously mythical ultra-long-range anti-aircraft capability. Good. But the next step is Taurus missiles and JASSMs, which will be launched from the safe corner of western Ukraine, out of range for those long-range missiles. Then what? One solution is to strike the launchers from Belarus, but Lukashenko has not wanted to be associated with this sh*tshow anymore since the March 2022 attempted grand betrayal — he got his nukes, but strikes from Belarus you can forget about for the time being. Medvedev ran his mouth how if Taurus is used, there will be strikes against Germany. Yeah, sure. They will swallow that too. The next step after that is aircraft openly flying from NATO territory and launching long-range non-export version cruise missiles.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Oct 30 2023 22:23 utc | 229

Finance minister asked for money for 132.000 Kia when the number wasn’t even 50.000
That’s the price for heavy party until Xmas
What can be had till then? I hope Odesa

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 30 2023 22:24 utc | 231

The strategic effect of this is quite interesting in that whereas the war in Ukraine has stripped NATO of amongst other things much/most of its artillery ammunition, the war in Gaza is now in a similar way stripping it of aircraft delivered munitions. At this rate the only US/NATO forces that will be able to fight a peer will be the navies, especially the US carriers. Then only for a while.
This has now really turned into a MIC profit opportunity blowout. The champagne will be flowing!
Posted by: JohninMK | Oct 30 2023 21:22 utc | 104

Wishful thinking.
Gaza is freely bombed to bits with JDAMs, because for some mysterious reason the “Resistance” has not attacked any of the IAF planes, even though they are well within range of simple and cheap Kamikaze drones. As we have seen in the Ukrainian war. But while Ukraine has to sneak in saboteurs deep in the strategic rear on Russian territory to destroy planes that way, Israel is so small that it should be much easier to do. But it wasn’t done.
The public info is that more than 430,000 JDAM kits have been produced in the last 25 years. That’s 17K a year, and they can certainly ramp it up. I doubt more than a third of that past production has been used in exercises and the various US wars over the years. So there is plenty in the arsenal.
In any case, none of this is relevant to a future NATO vs. Russia confrontation. On the other hand, S-400s, and what is not noticed by most, the various ultra-expensive and not at all easy to replace radars that being taken out in NATO strikes against Crimea, are highly relevant. Meanwhile there is absolutely zero attrition of such assets on the NATO side right now. Even the drones are still freely flying in the Black Sea, directing strikes.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Oct 30 2023 22:34 utc | 233

The Adygh, Abkhaz, Cherkessk, Kabardin and Chechen republics are all defined linguistically (with Turkish minorities such as the Balkar and Karachai in most). They have become secular with national expression being through literature, music, dance and sport: religion has, thankfully withered but is still there.
Dagestan divides naturally into predominantly Avar, Tsez, Lak, Dargwa and Lezgian provinces with, again, Turks (such as the Nogai, Kumyks, etc.) scattered among them.
Perhaps the RF should give consideration to dissolving the Dagestan republic and follow the model of the Adygh, etc., republics. Five peaceful mini-nations (Avar, Tsez, Lak, Dargwa, Lezgian) would be calmer than the present Muslim-focussed entity.
Posted by: John Marks | Oct 30 2023 15:37 utc | 77

The problem with Dagestan, and probably the reason it was created as the current joint mess of ethnicities, is that it is just way too mixed and diverse. Maybe they could have carved out separate republics for e.g. Lezgyns, Nogais, Avars, and a couple others, but the other more than a dozen groups are just too small for that, and they are also very mixed geographically, so it’s hard.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Oct 30 2023 22:45 utc | 235

The Adygh, Abkhaz, Cherkessk, Kabardin and Chechen republics are all defined linguistically (with Turkish minorities such as the Balkar and Karachai in most). They have become secular with national expression being through literature, music, dance and sport: religion has, thankfully withered but is still there.
Dagestan divides naturally into predominantly Avar, Tsez, Lak, Dargwa and Lezgian provinces with, again, Turks (such as the Nogai, Kumyks, etc.) scattered among them.
Perhaps the RF should give consideration to dissolving the Dagestan republic and follow the model of the Adygh, etc., republics. Five peaceful mini-nations (Avar, Tsez, Lak, Dargwa, Lezgian) would be calmer than the present Muslim-focussed entity.
Posted by: John Marks | Oct 30 2023 15:37 utc | 77

The problem with Dagestan, and probably the reason it was created as the current joint mess of ethnicities, is that it is just way too mixed and diverse. Maybe they could have carved out separate republics for e.g. Lezgyns, Nogais, Avars, and a couple others, but the other more than a dozen groups are just too small for that, and they are also very mixed geographically, so it’s hard.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Oct 30 2023 22:45 utc | 237

“Google – How much does a Storm Shadow missile cost? A Storm Shadow missile costs about £2.54 million (US$3.19 million) per unit.”
Not impossible NATO has decided the Storm Shadows are worthless crap and might as well use them up as gold plated diamond studded Buzz Bombs.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 30 2023 15:08 utc | 72

Wishful thinking again.
Google how much an S-400 battery costs.
This is the same “logic” that people were applying when Ukraine started destroying Russian artillery with HIMARS — it supposedly wasn’t cost effective. Which was just absurd — one HIMARS missile costs $100K, a Msta-S is 1.5M for export, certainly less than that domestically, but still an order of magnitude more than the missile used to destroy it. And the trained crew dies in such strikes too, which is a priceless resource.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Oct 30 2023 22:46 utc | 239

There is absolutely no way they will even get out of Donbass with the current resources, number of soldiers and government of US butt kissers and abramoviches. The Gaza lifestyle won’t end by their own military means, surely not these means. The one and only success is the reduction in the numbers of ukro nazi zombies but even that that is on the low side and won’t solve any of their problems. Who needs soldiers when they can shoot apparently at least 10 missiles at the same time? After hundreds of planes shot down and hundreds of airports destroyed by actor Shoigu in a single week.
There was one good news, the Kherson general clown was fired a few days ago, so let’s see what the new guy does.
Posted by: rk | Oct 30 2023 12:19 utc | 64

Exactly.
I had my hopes raised about a month ago when footage started appearing of Tornado-S finally disabling Ukrainian logistics deep in the rear. Then, as has been the consistent pattern in this war, the moment RU started doing what it obviously should have been doing from the start, it stopped. And it is back to the same old meat grinder.
A month ago they blew up all the bridges on the Oskol river, and everyone got their hopes up we are going to see a large-scale offensive to recover at least the small bit of territory east of it. Then nothing happened, bridges have by now been repaired, and what was achieved in the end?
There is no obvious reason why anything should be getting into Avdeevka now — there are Lancets and Orlans, and Tornado-S and lots of other tools, it should have been cut off completely even without physically encircling it. And yet…
Worse, there was a large-scale bombardment on the first day, and after that it just petered out, and you see soldiers on the ground complaining they are being sent on meat assaults without artillery support. How is that even possible???

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Oct 30 2023 22:52 utc | 241

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Oct 30 2023 22:52 utc | 120, 119, 118, 117, 115, 112,
—————————————————————————–
I hope that someone more optimistic will post here, your negativity is boring and unnecessary.

Posted by: Ed | Oct 30 2023 23:12 utc | 243

Alastair Crooke: The Deterrence Paradigm has Failed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ohj-wHm9ICk
“…whether they love him whether they hate
Netanyahu overwhelmingly these Israelis
favor the complete destruction of Gaza
there was a former ambassador Italy on
television and just saying we don’t
we’re not interested in reason or
rational debate we’re not interested we
just want this evil destroyed we want
Gaza destroyed completely and
Netanyahu gave a very scatological
interview it was only in Hebrew but the
interview was very profound and he
talked he said we’re facing a cosmic
battle between good and global global
evil and he talked about if you like
the Israelis as the chosen people and
also then again referred to Amalec and
the prophecy of Samuel that Amalec that
God instructed that amalec who had in
who had attacked Israel who was an enemy
of Israel on the flight from Egypt and
Saul had been ordered to kill every one
of them women children even their beasts
had to be had to be killed he made I
think about two references to that and
came back to the theme we the our
soldiers in Gaza are fighting the
thousand 3,000-year War to reclaim
the land of Israel against these evil
people”
Psychopaths one and all …. Israelis are the evil.

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Oct 30 2023 23:25 utc | 245

Sorry, wrong thread.

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Oct 30 2023 23:27 utc | 247

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 30 2023 22:22 utc | 114
They already know, the Ukrainian offensive allowed the ‘missing pieces’ I.e. the NATO armour, both in attack and defence, to be dropped into the calculator, so they will have a good idea about the blood and treasure price. The variations on a theme seen in the combat clips are often evidence of the Russians trying to find the optimal size of formation, including support, to complete a particular combat task at the lowest cost, so if that 132,000 figure is correct then that’s based on a particular set of parameters that will yield a specific result, and might be the high end estimate. The Marxist belief that warfare can be abstracted into a CoFM methodology is still at the heart of the Russian Army, which is different to the Western approach that sees warfare as inherently unpredictable yet following basic rules, which if adhered to will increase the chance of success.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Oct 30 2023 22:52 utc | 120
Just like your inverted partial namesake in Crimea, nothing for weeks and then a salvo of Eyore posts land together. I see you still believe technology is a universal battlefield panacea, instead of a two-edged sword, that Russian commanders are incompetent whilst personally only having the vaguest idea about the impact ISR has had on the battlefield and how it has mitigated the effectiveness of many of the tactics in a commanders toolbox.

Posted by: Milites | Oct 30 2023 23:34 utc | 249

it should have been cut off completely even without physically encircling it. And yet…
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Oct 30 2023 22:52 utc | 120
RF has to degrade 400.000 AFU , better get them in nice hot cauldrons and rise the heat
My 2 cents

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 30 2023 23:38 utc | 251

RF has to degrade 400.000 AFU , better get them in nice hot cauldrons and rise the heat
My 2 cents
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 30 2023 23:38 utc | 125

The most fortified place on Earth is not ideal for that purpose though…

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Oct 30 2023 23:40 utc | 253

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 30 2023 22:22 utc | 114
They already know, the Ukrainian offensive allowed the ‘missing pieces’ I.e. the NATO armour, both in attack and defence, to be dropped into the calculator, so they will have a good idea about the blood and treasure price.
Posted by: Milites | Oct 30 2023 23:34 utc | 124
The price of breaking solid defenses was still a question mark. Now it shouldn’t be
As you have seen for some weeks I’m betting on budget being enough (and the latest changes in AD and strike airplanes seems to confirm )
As I said before December 25 or 2025. No middle ground.

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 30 2023 23:44 utc | 255

Just like your inverted partial namesake in Crimea, nothing for weeks and then a salvo of Eyore posts land together. I see you still believe technology is a universal battlefield panacea, instead of a two-edged sword, that Russian commanders are incompetent whilst personally only having the vaguest idea about the impact ISR has had on the battlefield and how it has mitigated the effectiveness of many of the tactics in a commanders toolbox.
Posted by: Milites | Oct 30 2023 23:34 utc | 124

So we have now lowered the bar to “at least they are not attacking Russia’s strategic assets with cruise missiles daily”.
This is exactly how boiling the frog works.
Not that long ago it was unthinkable that NATO would be directly striking Russia with cruise missiles, now we are happy that it is only once a month because the stock was destroyed on the ground, not every day. What more is there to say?
Not even the simple and obvious things are done to respond, e.g. to send a few Tornado-S to Syria with a few hundred missiles and destroy the absolutely illegal US bases there under the pretense that it was not done by Russia. Too scared to to do even that…

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Oct 30 2023 23:45 utc | 257

The most fortified place on Earth is not ideal for that purpose though…
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Oct 30 2023 23:40 utc | 126
On the contrary, just perfect. Let them throw bad bodies after good.
You, and many, are ignoring the role of airforce (I know they’ve been absent for a while)

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 30 2023 23:46 utc | 259

Not even the simple and obvious things are done to respond, e.g. to send a few Tornado-S to Syria with a few hundred missiles and destroy the absolutely illegal US bases there under the pretense that it was not done by Russia. Too scared to to do even that…
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Oct 30 2023 23:45 utc | 128
As long as nukes are out then it’s a win
NATO is desperate, nukes would be the only equalizer but using them short of a big RF no-no?
Can’t be done, just because Z is being taken behind the barn and, repeatedly , corn-holed

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 30 2023 23:50 utc | 261

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Oct 30 2023 23:45 utc | 128
Re. “boiling the frog”.
There isn’t really any that sort of thing going on. If you look closer, then there isn’t really any sort of escalation. What there actually were was one time testing of these Storm Shadows, long range ATACMS, Javelin ATGM, Patriot PAC-3, Leopard 2s, Challengers, cluster munitions (these have, admittedly been painful) and Himars.
But most of those things were used and simply quietly more or less discarded. Yeah, Nato hit that drydocked submarine. They hit that HQ building in Crimea. They hit Berdyansk airfield taking out a few helicopters and damaging some more.
I don’t know, they get occasional hits, but it seems these weapons have simply faded away. They might still have ATACMS, but Storm shadow can be utilized at most with a handful, maybe 4 aircraft.
The Berdyansk and HQ hits were MASSIVELY hyped up, which is another indication that Ukraine doesn’t really have ability to do that many strikes on important targets. So you have to squeeze the PR from whatever event you can by hyping their relevance up 5x.
Russia doesn’t usually hype anything too much, they are just plainly in their clubber list reports, just another day on the job type of thing.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 31 2023 0:01 utc | 263

BTW AFU loosing massively in adveevka
Still pushing in Robotyne and Kherson …
Can we stop pretending it’s a 300k army ?
It’s something that has been kept close to twice as much (at least in meat) whenever they could.
Yes, they already lost a cool million (between killed and maimed ) and the least expensive option is to collapse their last half million before they can fill the front line with more meat.

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 31 2023 0:04 utc | 265

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 31 2023 0:01 utc | 131
Sorry but you are selling short the main factor
RF has learned how to parry each attack type
Just a week of forgetting how and it would be a slaughter
Art, not luck

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 31 2023 0:07 utc | 267

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 31 2023 0:04 utc | 132
Cumulatively AFU started with 250k, army, their total casualties are well over a million by now, they still have 600k army. They must be nearing, not quite there maybe, but nearing 2 million in total mobilized so far.
I don’t know about Russian numbers, though. Medvedev said they had 350k volunteers so far this year. Russia started with the 150k initial army in Ukraine (including DPR-LPR, now counted in RUAF). AFU and RUAF might be pretty even in terms of total numbers.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 31 2023 0:11 utc | 269

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 31 2023 0:04 utc | 132
Cumulatively AFU started with 250k, army, their total casualties are well over a million by now, they still have 600k army. They must be nearing, not quite there maybe, but nearing 2 million in total mobilized so far.
I don’t know about Russian numbers, though. Medvedev said they had 350k volunteers so far this year. Russia started with the 150k initial army in Ukraine (including DPR-LPR, now counted in RUAF). AFU and RUAF might be pretty even in terms of total numbers.
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 31 2023 0:11 utc | 134
With other forces they started almost at 700k (and lost plenty in the first 2 weeks)~
Yes, 1.5 to 2 million total and something close to 500k left
The most important of a speedy endgame is that true believers are spared to marshal in fresh meat, they degrade at 1/2 or 1/3 or even less of regular troops… not because they’re good but because they aren’t thrown againts bullets and shells except on particular occasions.

Posted by: newbie | Oct 31 2023 0:27 utc | 271

Some videos for today.
Kiev regime armored vehicles get destroyed during failed attack on the DPR’s Soledar:
https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/video_2023-10-30_15-23-25:4
Russian Lancet destroys Czech self-propelled howitzer:
https://rutube.ru/video/98985be955363717e1f4a5d75c0b83d8/
Russian ATGM destroys another Leopard 2 tank:
https://odysee.com/@YuBratNavas:f/VID_20231030_235701_629:7
Russian Lancet destroys Stormer SAM system:
https://odysee.com/@YuBratNavas:f/VID_20231031_001122_527:3
Russian artillery working on the Zaporozhye front:
https://odysee.com/@YuBratNavas:f/VID_20231029_161159_671:c
Russian forces pound enemy positions near Artemovsk:
https://odysee.com/@YuBratNavas:f/VID_20231029_220401_822:6
Russian forces pound enemy positions near Marinka:
https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/trudovskyattack:2

Posted by: Nate | Oct 31 2023 0:31 utc | 273

Not true – many around here claimed Russia would be in Lemberg/Lviv/Lvov 12 months ago so easily would they roll over the AFU – which obviously didn’t happen.
Julian | Oct 30 2023 11:51 utc | 62
Not sure who claimed that, but ok. Russia obviously doesn’t *want* western Ukraine – what for??
It could have occupied (most of) the country, but that would’ve exposed its army to lasting guerilla warfare with heavy losses. London would’ve loved the Russians to walk into that trap, of course.
Discussing where exactly the border/ demarcation line will be seems rather pointless imo. It depends on many factors, not least whether there’ll be a coup and/ or civil war in Ukraine.
Initially I thought it was a Russian Iranian Jedi move, but seeing how the USA first day had C130’s on the tarmac in Israel and how fast they assembled a fleet in the eastern Mediterranean that hasn’t been seen since WW2 in the Pacific, I realized it can’t be the case.
———-
Never considered as RF work, can’t just make up my mind about who’s leading and who’s tagging along
LightYearsFromHome | Oct 30 2023 21:00 utc | 100
Newbie | Oct 30 2023 21:17 utc | 103
Agree with Newbie – difficult to say who’s taking the initiative.
The US may have been ready, but that doesn’t prove anything, since an escalation was expected.
Initially I thought US/UK/IS Neocons did a LIHOP in order to thwart Israel-Saudi détente, and Bibi quickly decided to roll with it after the scale of the offensive took many/ all by surprise.
But the timing seems to benefit the axis of resistance, with Washington unable to risk full escalation bc elections coming up & budget for 2024 not secured. Also, Iran & allies have been using the same playbook in Syria: limited attack/ provocation, wait for retaliation which puts US in the wrong, then force strategic withdrawal. Both US and Israel are stupidly predictable in their reactions.
Maybe the two don’t exclude each other?

Posted by: smuks | Oct 31 2023 1:21 utc | 275

Not sure who claimed that, but ok. Russia obviously doesn’t *want* western Ukraine – what for??
It could have occupied (most of) the country, but that would’ve exposed its army to lasting guerilla warfare with heavy losses. London would’ve loved the Russians to walk into that trap, of course.
Posted by: smuks | Oct 31 2023 1:21 utc | 137

Plenty of people claimed it early in the SMO, and it could have been done much easier had the SMO started with 500K instead of 190K manpower.
Now it will cost a lot more.
But regardless, it isn’t a matter of what Russia wants, it has no choice at this point.
As long as there is a Ukraine anywhere, it will be used to launch strikes towards Russia under the pretense that it isn’t NATO doing it, so if Russian security is to be ensured, Ukraine must cease to exist. Most importantly, Kiev still controls three NPPs, which are all located deep behind the Dnieper, which means it is a matter of time for them to put together nuclear weapons, and if they don’t do it themselves, they will be given nukes by the US. This is the logical end point of the escalation, Medvedev said it openly too. Then what?

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Oct 31 2023 2:15 utc | 277

. . . I think you’ll find that apocalyptic world views are not the monopoly of one religion.
Russians/Chinese are far preferred to the Muslims to be the chosen Western adversary, due to the MIC being able to leverage far more money from the threat they are perceived to create. Muslims have been singularly incompetent at building anything that threatens the West technologically, and though Iran talks a good game, most of her output is either comically absurd PR statements or resourceful innovations from reverse engineering programmes. . .
Posted by: Milites | Oct 30 2023 22:00 utc | 111

Simplicius’ latest post examines the religious footing that all the potentially relevant players in the Israeli/Palestine conflict are assuming, which covers all the Abrahamic religions. While Russia/china present far more of a potential threat in their actual military capability than does any Middle Eastern country, the perceived threat of Islam has more resonance with much of the American public, fundamentalist Christian to the hilt. Given that many congresscritters are also in the cult it’s hard for them to resist exploiting the paranoid sentiments of their constituents, like they did some years ago with the nonsense about Sharia law being implemented in the US. The actual threat that comes from Russia and China is their ability to rally much of the world with them and end US financial hegemony, IMO, leaving the US a much poorer nation whose newfound economic status would reflect its actual productive output and put most of the politicians out of office. Of course that concept goes over the heads of most people, so public sentiment will be moved by either religious zealotry or fear of the military capabilities of a peer competitor. Either way, America needs an enemy in order to have an identity, it’s what makes the US tick.

Posted by: Mike R | Oct 31 2023 2:56 utc | 279

Mike R | Oct 31 2023 2:56 utc | 139
***… the perceived threat of Islam has more resonance with much of the American public, fundamentalist Christian to the hilt. Given that many congresscritters are also in the cult it’s hard for them to resist exploiting the paranoid sentiments of their constituents …***
Just how could so many Americans end up as fanatically Zio-worshipping planks?
From a non-religious British perspective, what I’ve viewed and read of Ukraine and other recent conflicts suggests that Major-General Alaudinov (Chechen special forces commander) despite him being a Moslem seems to be much more of a real ‘Christian’ than the likes of, for instance, Pompeo and Pence.

Posted by: Cynic | Oct 31 2023 3:27 utc | 281

The situation will get much murkier if and when Ukraine shuts their pipelines on 31/12/23. If they can afford to piss off the EU by cutting critical gas supply to central/eastern EU countries in the middle of winter and walk away from $1B+ a year of transit fees.
Posted by: JohninMK | Oct 30 2023 20:46 utc | 98
Thanks JohninMK for all the info on the pipelines. Does ‘MK’ mean Macedonia? Here is the pipeline from Bulgaria to Serbia that I was reading about. It will use gas from Azerbaijan. Have you heard of it?
Nis-Dimitrovgrad Gas Pipeline to Start Working by Year-End
https://www.ekapija.com/en/news/4433849/nis-dimitrovgrad-gas-pipeline-to-start-working-by-year-end
The Energy Agency Council has given approval to the Plan of Development of the Transport System Jugorosgaz-Transport d.o.o. for 2023-2032. This plan envisages the connecting of the transport system with the Nis-Dimitrovgrad gas pipeline, which is expected to start working by the end of 2023, the Agency announced…
The completion of the construction of the Serbia-Bulgaria gas interconnection, according to the previous announcements made by officials was planned for the autumn, and Serbia has already commenced negotiations with Azerbaijan regarding the procurement of gas from the Caspian region.
The minister of mining and energy of Serbia, Dubravka Djedovic, pointed out at the beginning of May that, in the territory of Serbia, 43% of the works on the construction of the Nis-Dimitrovgrad interconnection had been realized, which was above the planned dynamics, and added that 93% of the agreed pipes had been delivered and that 80% had been laid down along the route of the future gas pipeline.
In Serbia, the gas pipeline will be 109 kilometers, and the total length of the two-way gas pipeline through both states is 170 kilometers, from Novi Iskar near Sofia to Nis. The gas pipeline has a capacity of 1.8 billion cubic meters of gas a year.

Posted by: MiniMO | Oct 31 2023 3:55 utc | 283

Posted by: JohninMK | Oct 30 2023 20:46 utc | 98
Thanks JohninMK for all the info on the pipelines. Does MK mean Macedonia?

Posted by: MiniMO | Oct 31 2023 4:17 utc | 285

Jfc, the sock puppet distortion of shadowbanned, newbie (whichever newbie happens to be pandering) along with rk and pals – we must be getting close to endgame for ukraine. Zanon lives!

Posted by: comrade simba | Oct 31 2023 4:38 utc | 287

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 29 2023 13:39 utc | 4

Any news on Russian aviation ?
Another thread I mentioned simultaneous attacks by half a dozen su-25.
Most clobber lists now include aviation as helping stop AFU attacks or supporting RF ones.
This is a new thing and might mean AD is highly neutered.
Comments and or additional info welcome.

where did you get this nonsense from ?
in EVERY “clobber list” air force missions are noted !!!! — since first day

Posted by: ghiwen | Oct 31 2023 4:53 utc | 289

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ War Map and the Situation on the Fronts for the Evening of 30 October 2023; pub. 00:06⚡️
🇷🇺 #Russia prepares for the winter campaign and at the moment the main task of our army is to disperse the AFU forces along the entire frontline to prevent the enemy from gathering large reserves in one place. At #Kupyansk, we retain the initiative and repel regular enemy attacks. In #Avdeyevka we have disorganised the enemy’s defence system. The situation is tense near #Bakhmut, but our fighters do not let the enemy turn small local successes into bigger ones. And everything is clear with #Zaporozhye, the 404 “counteroffensive” has turned from a “campaign to #Crimea” into a museum of burned out Western equipment.
⚔️ Situation on the Fronts over the past Day
🔹#Svatovo – #Kremennaya Direction:
▪️ The Russian offensive continues in the area of #Sinkovka, #Kislovka, as well as #Makeyevka. Meanwhile, the AFU counterattacked near #Raygorodka.
🔹#Bakhmut (#Artyomovsk) Direction:
▪️ North of #Bakhmut, there are counter fights near Berkhovka. To the south, near #Kleshcheyevka and #Andreyevka, our forces hold the defence at the railway and even push back some militants.
🔹#Donetsk Direction:
▪️ In the #Avdeyevka sector, ours managed to expand the bridgehead west of #Krasnogorovka. Ours are attacking south of #Avdeyevka, near #Severnoye and #Pervomayskoye.
▪️ In #Maryinka no change, fights on the western outskirts.
🔹#Zaporozhye Direction:
▪️ In the #Orekhov section the AFU attacked in the area of #Kopani and #Novoprokopovka. Meanwhile, the Russian army advanced near #Verbovoye in the direction of #Rabotino. On the #Vremyevka ledge, there is fighting near #Priyutnoye and #Novodonetskoye.
⚡️ The Russian Army has worked on large military and infrastructural objects of 404. In #Kiev, the “geraniums” visited the Darnitsky district, where the lights went out after the strikes. In #Khmelnitsky region, strikes were carried out in the area of #Starokonstantinov airfield. In #Cherkassy region, an ammo depot near #Dubiyevka was liquidated. In addition, Russian missiles flew near #Odessa airport, and a ship repair yard.

https://t.me/sitreports/17258

Posted by: Down South | Oct 31 2023 5:15 utc | 291

🇷🇺🇺🇦 The Russian army fought its way to the Avdeevsky coke plant Ukrainian military analysts are publishing a new map of the situation at the Avdeevka coke plant with the latest successes of the Russian Armed Forces highlighted in red and gray – the enemy admits that the Avdeevka waste heap is under the complete control of our troops and they have entered the outskirts of the industrial zone.
West of the Avdeevsky waste heap, Russian troops have gained a foothold in the forest belt along the railway. The fighting continues,” the enemy report says.
South of Avdeevka, the Russian Armed Forces continue attacks in several directions. Positional combat operations continue west of Krasnogorovka.The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported in the evening that Russian troops carried out a series of attacks in the areas of Avdeevka, Tonenky and Pervomaisky.

https://t.me/geromanat/13117

Posted by: Down South | Oct 31 2023 5:19 utc | 293

@ Down South | Oct 31 2023 5:19 utc | 145 with the continued good balance of detail about the Ukraine SMO
THANK YOU!
Historians will write about this for a bit, don’t you think?
And then place it in the context of the bigger shit show culmination…grin
Who gets the Hollywood rights?

Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 31 2023 6:17 utc | 295

Bankova is confident that the sabotage of elites in Ukraine will intensify after the release of a devastating article about Zelensky in TIME.
In fact, the Western elites sent a signal through a public article that demonstrates the beginning of the decline of Zelensky’s star on the international stage and problems within the country, where decisions at headquarters began to be ignored by the military.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/20326

Posted by: Down South | Oct 31 2023 6:47 utc | 297

Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 31 2023 6:17 utc | 146
No problem.
Ha. One thing I can tell you is that if the movie ends in a Russian victory it wasn’t made in Hollywood.

Posted by: Down South | Oct 31 2023 6:51 utc | 299