Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Back to Main
October 29, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-254
Comments
“If they buy with the purpose of re-exporting to Europe, they are using yuans and rupees to import energy which they sell accepting dollars from Europe.”
That’s always the case in any international transaction. Every production firm has to pay their costs in the local currency. In the chain from end consumer to start producer, the end consumer pays in the currency they have and the producing workers receives the currency they want to hold. If that doesn’t happen, then neither does the production or the trade and everybody loses.
The finance industry exists to *create* the necessary moneys all down the chain – and charge a fee for doing so.
Moving the exchange step between jurisdictions makes very little difference to the entire process. The process of blocking a direct exchange into roubles, just means there’s an exchange via some other intermediary – which simply adds the price of their cut to the trade.
US dollars are mostly an intermediary exchange currency that just happen to be cheap and convenient for most of the planet. As soon as they stop being cheap and convenient they’ll be cut out of the middle and the intermediation fees will go elsewhere.
Posted by: The Accountant | Oct 30 2023 6:55 utc | 101
“If they buy with the purpose of re-exporting to Europe, they are using yuans and rupees to import energy which they sell accepting dollars from Europe.”
That’s always the case in any international transaction. Every production firm has to pay their costs in the local currency. In the chain from end consumer to start producer, the end consumer pays in the currency they have and the producing workers receives the currency they want to hold. If that doesn’t happen, then neither does the production or the trade and everybody loses.
The finance industry exists to *create* the necessary moneys all down the chain – and charge a fee for doing so.
Moving the exchange step between jurisdictions makes very little difference to the entire process. The process of blocking a direct exchange into roubles, just means there’s an exchange via some other intermediary – which simply adds the price of their cut to the trade.
US dollars are mostly an intermediary exchange currency that just happen to be cheap and convenient for most of the planet. As soon as they stop being cheap and convenient they’ll be cut out of the middle and the intermediation fees will go elsewhere.
Posted by: The Accountant | Oct 30 2023 6:55 utc | 102
Posted by: Simon | Oct 29 2023 22:55 utc | 35
Thanks Simon. Glad yo enjoyed the Update.
Posted by: Robert Hamilton Camp | Oct 30 2023 7:16 utc | 103
Posted by: Simon | Oct 29 2023 22:55 utc | 35
Thanks Simon. Glad yo enjoyed the Update.
Posted by: Robert Hamilton Camp | Oct 30 2023 7:16 utc | 104
Posted by: Screwdriver | Oct 30 2023 1:15 utc | 43
“So after all this time and the fact it’s been repeatedly stated you still have no idea what the purpose of the SMO is?”
Like with all the politicians, east, west, south, north and all the points in between, don’t listen what the mouth says, look what the hand does.
What did russia do as soon as possible? Grab the 4 oblast and annex them asap.
One could even say that they did before it was even possible, since they didn’t even control the entirety of those oblasts. Still don’t btw. Probably never will.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Oct 30 2023 7:42 utc | 105
Posted by: Screwdriver | Oct 30 2023 1:15 utc | 43
“So after all this time and the fact it’s been repeatedly stated you still have no idea what the purpose of the SMO is?”
Like with all the politicians, east, west, south, north and all the points in between, don’t listen what the mouth says, look what the hand does.
What did russia do as soon as possible? Grab the 4 oblast and annex them asap.
One could even say that they did before it was even possible, since they didn’t even control the entirety of those oblasts. Still don’t btw. Probably never will.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Oct 30 2023 7:42 utc | 106
If your troops are unwilling to get ground down so as to slow an advance, then you have to wihdraw to a defendible position. And since Russia is by now very well known to take prisoners and threat them well, AFU soldiers that get used as expendible pawns see themself as having a choice. AFU commanders could be wary of having surrenders starting to get popular, as that could spread like wildfire.
Babel-17 | Oct 29 2023 21:08 utc | 32
Hmm. Where is the next line of defence, if Avdeyevka is abandoned?
Someone suggested Kramatorsk, but I’m not convinced there’s real fortifications there.
Doesn’t really answer my question re. giving up southern parts of Avdeyevka though.
(Also, how do you surrender from inside a fortified ring without being shot from behind?)
Well, there we have it – if Russia wants to continue to stick to contracts supplying gas to their friends in Hungary (& Slovakia?!?) – they need to make significant gains – TERRITORIAL GAINS over the next year and reach the Hungarian & Slovakian borders.
Posted by: Julian | Oct 29 2023 22:53 utc | 34
Nobody expects Russian forces to occupy western Ukraine. A new regime in Kiev might negotiate new transit contracts. If not…yeah, Turkey will become even more important as transit hub. Whether also for Serbia & Hungary, dunno – possible.
Posted by: smuks | Oct 30 2023 7:43 utc | 107
If your troops are unwilling to get ground down so as to slow an advance, then you have to wihdraw to a defendible position. And since Russia is by now very well known to take prisoners and threat them well, AFU soldiers that get used as expendible pawns see themself as having a choice. AFU commanders could be wary of having surrenders starting to get popular, as that could spread like wildfire.
Babel-17 | Oct 29 2023 21:08 utc | 32
Hmm. Where is the next line of defence, if Avdeyevka is abandoned?
Someone suggested Kramatorsk, but I’m not convinced there’s real fortifications there.
Doesn’t really answer my question re. giving up southern parts of Avdeyevka though.
(Also, how do you surrender from inside a fortified ring without being shot from behind?)
Well, there we have it – if Russia wants to continue to stick to contracts supplying gas to their friends in Hungary (& Slovakia?!?) – they need to make significant gains – TERRITORIAL GAINS over the next year and reach the Hungarian & Slovakian borders.
Posted by: Julian | Oct 29 2023 22:53 utc | 34
Nobody expects Russian forces to occupy western Ukraine. A new regime in Kiev might negotiate new transit contracts. If not…yeah, Turkey will become even more important as transit hub. Whether also for Serbia & Hungary, dunno – possible.
Posted by: smuks | Oct 30 2023 7:43 utc | 108
@Joe Below | Oct 30 2023 2:15 utc | 45
the artillery losses of the Ukes matches the loss of Ukes airforce.
Is it the same reason, the new rooskie AWACS that can now see artillery fires. Same time frame, same jump in kill rates, same AWACS instant targeting?
Good question, while the himar launchers are getting instantly targeted probably due to the AWACS and much more efficient communication mechanisms between the AWACS and the ground artillery, shells are a different story. It must be ground based counter battery detectors (radar and sound based) which talk quickly to the artillery which accounts for the artillery losses. Shells are just so much smaller and more numerous than the himars rockets, and their flight time so much quicker and shorter, that it makes more sense for ground based mechanisms being used to counter them than AWACS. The rooskies have probably been able to reduce their counter battery fire response times down from minutes to seconds due to quicker communication between the detectors and the artillery.
Posted by: gT | Oct 30 2023 8:28 utc | 109
@Joe Below | Oct 30 2023 2:15 utc | 45
the artillery losses of the Ukes matches the loss of Ukes airforce.
Is it the same reason, the new rooskie AWACS that can now see artillery fires. Same time frame, same jump in kill rates, same AWACS instant targeting?
Good question, while the himar launchers are getting instantly targeted probably due to the AWACS and much more efficient communication mechanisms between the AWACS and the ground artillery, shells are a different story. It must be ground based counter battery detectors (radar and sound based) which talk quickly to the artillery which accounts for the artillery losses. Shells are just so much smaller and more numerous than the himars rockets, and their flight time so much quicker and shorter, that it makes more sense for ground based mechanisms being used to counter them than AWACS. The rooskies have probably been able to reduce their counter battery fire response times down from minutes to seconds due to quicker communication between the detectors and the artillery.
Posted by: gT | Oct 30 2023 8:28 utc | 110
Political scientist Alexei Zhivov especially for the channel Soroсa-Beloboсa
The Ukrainian side places greater emphasis on company level achievements, artillery and drones. However, it is highly dependent on the volume and quality of Western supplies. Communications with allies are a pronounced weak point of the enemy. They can be brought down by counter-threats and the destruction of communications themselves, which is already partially being done.
We have an incomparably greater mobilization potential. Our industry and scientific base make it possible to deploy a much more powerful military machine than today. And so far we have not even resorted to the most effective tool – directed purchases of raw materials at state prices.
We were seriously crippled by the lack of high-precision weapons – aerial bombs, shells, long-range MLRS, large missiles. But our military-political leadership is already thinking in terms of large modern technology, when it is saturated, the front will change beyond recognition. This is exactly what our military-industrial complex is focusing on now. In the foreseeable future, the Armed Forces of Russian Federation will have high-altitude attack UAVs, new automated artillery systems, a Coalition self-propelled gun with a long-range projectile, modernized armored vehicles, high-precision long-range MLRS of Russian and foreign production, a river fleet, roaming automatic mortars and much more. The time frame for the implementation of all these plans is from one to two years.
We were expecting a big offensive this fall, but there is still a shortage of shots and competencies. In the near future we can predict the capture of Avdeevka, or Kupyansk, or, if you are very lucky, Orekhov. I wouldn’t count on more. Although there is little hope that before the elections the army will try to give the president a big victory like the liberation of Kherson. But in an operation of this scale, there are just as many risks as there are benefits. The probability is below average.
After the elections, I would expect many serious changes in the defense department and big changes at the front. But they won’t be fast. So we can confidently plan for another year or two of the special military operation and the growth of our military economy. And finally, it is worth saying that to carry out an operation in Kharkov or Odessa, our troops need from 500 thousand to 1 million soldiers.
It’s probably also worth defining the criteria for our victory. Russia must receive full rights to export sovereignty, full control over most post-Soviet republics, the complete dismantling of Ukrainianism as a military-political ideology and the re-establishment of world treaties that guarantee our security. Otherwise, war with NATO cannot be avoided.
Posted by: MiniMO | Oct 30 2023 8:42 utc | 111
Political scientist Alexei Zhivov especially for the channel Soroсa-Beloboсa
The Ukrainian side places greater emphasis on company level achievements, artillery and drones. However, it is highly dependent on the volume and quality of Western supplies. Communications with allies are a pronounced weak point of the enemy. They can be brought down by counter-threats and the destruction of communications themselves, which is already partially being done.
We have an incomparably greater mobilization potential. Our industry and scientific base make it possible to deploy a much more powerful military machine than today. And so far we have not even resorted to the most effective tool – directed purchases of raw materials at state prices.
We were seriously crippled by the lack of high-precision weapons – aerial bombs, shells, long-range MLRS, large missiles. But our military-political leadership is already thinking in terms of large modern technology, when it is saturated, the front will change beyond recognition. This is exactly what our military-industrial complex is focusing on now. In the foreseeable future, the Armed Forces of Russian Federation will have high-altitude attack UAVs, new automated artillery systems, a Coalition self-propelled gun with a long-range projectile, modernized armored vehicles, high-precision long-range MLRS of Russian and foreign production, a river fleet, roaming automatic mortars and much more. The time frame for the implementation of all these plans is from one to two years.
We were expecting a big offensive this fall, but there is still a shortage of shots and competencies. In the near future we can predict the capture of Avdeevka, or Kupyansk, or, if you are very lucky, Orekhov. I wouldn’t count on more. Although there is little hope that before the elections the army will try to give the president a big victory like the liberation of Kherson. But in an operation of this scale, there are just as many risks as there are benefits. The probability is below average.
After the elections, I would expect many serious changes in the defense department and big changes at the front. But they won’t be fast. So we can confidently plan for another year or two of the special military operation and the growth of our military economy. And finally, it is worth saying that to carry out an operation in Kharkov or Odessa, our troops need from 500 thousand to 1 million soldiers.
It’s probably also worth defining the criteria for our victory. Russia must receive full rights to export sovereignty, full control over most post-Soviet republics, the complete dismantling of Ukrainianism as a military-political ideology and the re-establishment of world treaties that guarantee our security. Otherwise, war with NATO cannot be avoided.
Posted by: MiniMO | Oct 30 2023 8:42 utc | 112
“. . . which means that Hungary and Serbia, two of the Empire’s greatest annoyances, will be relying almost entirely on TurkStream. Oh, Turkey — annoyance no. 3!
Look for some tragic accident to befall TurkStream.
Posted by: malenkov | Oct 29 2023 13:39 utc | 3”
Isn’t there also a pipeline through Bulgaria, the original SouthStream? I think there were still continued works on it despite Russia switching to Turkey. And I think there was something in recent days about Serbia and Hungary complaining about Bulgaria’s transit tax being too high.
Posted by: MiniMO | Oct 30 2023 8:45 utc | 113
“. . . which means that Hungary and Serbia, two of the Empire’s greatest annoyances, will be relying almost entirely on TurkStream. Oh, Turkey — annoyance no. 3!
Look for some tragic accident to befall TurkStream.
Posted by: malenkov | Oct 29 2023 13:39 utc | 3”
Isn’t there also a pipeline through Bulgaria, the original SouthStream? I think there were still continued works on it despite Russia switching to Turkey. And I think there was something in recent days about Serbia and Hungary complaining about Bulgaria’s transit tax being too high.
Posted by: MiniMO | Oct 30 2023 8:45 utc | 114
Zaluzhny advocates defense and economy.
Zelensky needs to continue the offensive in order to maintain the message/illusion that the Ukrainian Armed Forces continues its creeping offensive.
The different approach of Ze and Za intensifies the quiet war between the military and the office. Even the Times writes about it.
The escalation will begin at the moment when it becomes clear to everyone that the offensive failed, due to the fact that Ze was carried away by the offensive, the Ukrainian Armed Forces began to lose positions and territories, since the defense was not prepared.
In the army, Zelensky’s rating is already 50/50.
The Ukrainian counter-offensive is approaching its tragic ending – the so-called. The “Azov massacre” was too costly for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which suffered huge losses in equipment and manpower. At the same time, Ukraine, after an unsuccessful offensive, will no longer be able to repeat anything like this, and its strength is only fading, as is the faith of Kyiv’s Western partners.
Let us note that as a result of their entire summer counter-offensive, the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to recapture less than 300 square kilometers of territory. However, they did not occupy any strategic points.
True, there is now a lot of evidence that the Russian Armed Forces are seizing the initiative at the front. Particularly alarming information for Kyiv is coming from its eastern sector of the front, where the onslaught of Russian forces is especially strong.
Western military experts are confident that a positional war will gradually “burn out” the remaining reserves of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which will force Zelensky to choose between the loss of Kupyansk, Maryinka, Avdeevka or a mass retreat in the Azov area. Naturally, we are no longer talking about a counter-offensive; the maximum that the Ukrainian Armed Forces can do is try to impose oncoming battles along the entire front.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/20317
Posted by: Down South | Oct 30 2023 8:49 utc | 115
Zaluzhny advocates defense and economy.
Zelensky needs to continue the offensive in order to maintain the message/illusion that the Ukrainian Armed Forces continues its creeping offensive.
The different approach of Ze and Za intensifies the quiet war between the military and the office. Even the Times writes about it.
The escalation will begin at the moment when it becomes clear to everyone that the offensive failed, due to the fact that Ze was carried away by the offensive, the Ukrainian Armed Forces began to lose positions and territories, since the defense was not prepared.
In the army, Zelensky’s rating is already 50/50.
The Ukrainian counter-offensive is approaching its tragic ending – the so-called. The “Azov massacre” was too costly for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which suffered huge losses in equipment and manpower. At the same time, Ukraine, after an unsuccessful offensive, will no longer be able to repeat anything like this, and its strength is only fading, as is the faith of Kyiv’s Western partners.
Let us note that as a result of their entire summer counter-offensive, the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to recapture less than 300 square kilometers of territory. However, they did not occupy any strategic points.
True, there is now a lot of evidence that the Russian Armed Forces are seizing the initiative at the front. Particularly alarming information for Kyiv is coming from its eastern sector of the front, where the onslaught of Russian forces is especially strong.
Western military experts are confident that a positional war will gradually “burn out” the remaining reserves of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which will force Zelensky to choose between the loss of Kupyansk, Maryinka, Avdeevka or a mass retreat in the Azov area. Naturally, we are no longer talking about a counter-offensive; the maximum that the Ukrainian Armed Forces can do is try to impose oncoming battles along the entire front.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/20317
Posted by: Down South | Oct 30 2023 8:49 utc | 116
Apparently the Dagestan issue was caused by the TG channel “Utro Dagestan” (Morning Dagestan) spreading rumors of a plane with “Israeli settlers” flying into Dagestan to take the locals land. Surprisingly (or not) Utro Dagestan is a channel controlled from Kiev.
Russia might take refugees from Israel, but it’s doubt they would settle in Dagestan regardless. They might also be actual refugees, fleeing from the ziocon regime.
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 30 2023 9:38 utc | 117
Apparently the Dagestan issue was caused by the TG channel “Utro Dagestan” (Morning Dagestan) spreading rumors of a plane with “Israeli settlers” flying into Dagestan to take the locals land. Surprisingly (or not) Utro Dagestan is a channel controlled from Kiev.
Russia might take refugees from Israel, but it’s doubt they would settle in Dagestan regardless. They might also be actual refugees, fleeing from the ziocon regime.
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 30 2023 9:38 utc | 118
The next step is Ukrainian nationalists turning against their sponsors and lashing out at Europe.
Posted by: Lex | Oct 29 2023 16:01 utc | 15
Agreed.
Eventually the Ukes will realize that they have been used as cannonfodder and their anger at US/UK/NATO/EU will be monumental
The next step is Ukrainian nationalists turning against their sponsors and lashing out at Europe.
Posted by: Lex | Oct 29 2023 16:01 utc | 15
Agreed.
Eventually the Ukes will realize that they have been used as cannonfodder and their anger at US/UK/NATO/EU will be monumental
So after all this time and the fact it’s been repeatedly stated you still have no idea what the purpose of the SMO is?
Re: Posted by: Screwdriver | Oct 30 2023 1:15 utc | 43
How did the failure to take territory in 2014 turn out?
It just gave Ukraine time to rearm and rebuild for the better part of a decade.
What about the mistakes made in 2013-14 don’t you get?
If you don’t take the territory you will merely have yet another war in 10–15 years.
In 2013 Russia “owned and controlled” 100% of Ukraine.
10 years later, in 2023, Russia “owns and controls” about 20-25% of Ukraine.
In 10 years Russia has gone backwards around 75-80% in terms of control of Ukraine.
It is a similar situation in Syria – which barely controls 50% of its territory whereas in 2011 it controlled 100%.
Please let me know how the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Artsakh that Russia froze for its ally Armenia in 1992 worked out?
Russia froze the conflict instead of finishing it – and then what happened? 30 years of nothing – and then what?
Perhaps you know.
Posted by: Julian | Oct 30 2023 10:37 utc | 121
So after all this time and the fact it’s been repeatedly stated you still have no idea what the purpose of the SMO is?
Re: Posted by: Screwdriver | Oct 30 2023 1:15 utc | 43
How did the failure to take territory in 2014 turn out?
It just gave Ukraine time to rearm and rebuild for the better part of a decade.
What about the mistakes made in 2013-14 don’t you get?
If you don’t take the territory you will merely have yet another war in 10–15 years.
In 2013 Russia “owned and controlled” 100% of Ukraine.
10 years later, in 2023, Russia “owns and controls” about 20-25% of Ukraine.
In 10 years Russia has gone backwards around 75-80% in terms of control of Ukraine.
It is a similar situation in Syria – which barely controls 50% of its territory whereas in 2011 it controlled 100%.
Please let me know how the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Artsakh that Russia froze for its ally Armenia in 1992 worked out?
Russia froze the conflict instead of finishing it – and then what happened? 30 years of nothing – and then what?
Perhaps you know.
Posted by: Julian | Oct 30 2023 10:37 utc | 122
Re: Posted by: smuks | Oct 30 2023 7:43 utc | 54
Nobody expects Russian forces to occupy western Ukraine. A new regime in Kiev might negotiate new transit contracts. If not…yeah, Turkey will become even more important as transit hub. Whether also for Serbia & Hungary, dunno – possible.
Not true – many around here claimed Russia would be in Lemberg/Lviv/Lvov 12 months ago so easily would they roll over the AFU – which obviously didn’t happen.
I never claimed that and I also don’t claim Russia needs to occupy ALL of Western Ukraine – but it would do well to occupy enough to create a land bridge to Hungary, Slovakia, Serbia and Non-NATO Austria & Switzerland.
Russia doesn’t need Lviv, Rivne & Lutsk and I don’t expect they will enter any of these three North-Western oblasts at any point.
Posted by: Julian | Oct 30 2023 11:51 utc | 123
Re: Posted by: smuks | Oct 30 2023 7:43 utc | 54
Nobody expects Russian forces to occupy western Ukraine. A new regime in Kiev might negotiate new transit contracts. If not…yeah, Turkey will become even more important as transit hub. Whether also for Serbia & Hungary, dunno – possible.
Not true – many around here claimed Russia would be in Lemberg/Lviv/Lvov 12 months ago so easily would they roll over the AFU – which obviously didn’t happen.
I never claimed that and I also don’t claim Russia needs to occupy ALL of Western Ukraine – but it would do well to occupy enough to create a land bridge to Hungary, Slovakia, Serbia and Non-NATO Austria & Switzerland.
Russia doesn’t need Lviv, Rivne & Lutsk and I don’t expect they will enter any of these three North-Western oblasts at any point.
Posted by: Julian | Oct 30 2023 11:51 utc | 124
I just thought I’d remind everyone that blogger Gonzalo Lira is still disappeared in the Ukraine penal system. He was supposed to have a trial, or perhaps ‘trial’ at the beginning of October and we have heard nothing since then.
Posted by: JulianJ | Oct 30 2023 12:14 utc | 125
I just thought I’d remind everyone that blogger Gonzalo Lira is still disappeared in the Ukraine penal system. He was supposed to have a trial, or perhaps ‘trial’ at the beginning of October and we have heard nothing since then.
Posted by: JulianJ | Oct 30 2023 12:14 utc | 126
@Julian | Oct 30 2023 11:51 utc | 62
There is absolutely no way they will even get out of Donbass with the current resources, number of soldiers and government of US butt kissers and abramoviches. The Gaza lifestyle won’t end by their own military means, surely not these means. The one and only success is the reduction in the numbers of ukro nazi zombies but even that that is on the low side and won’t solve any of their problems. Who needs soldiers when they can shoot apparently at least 10 missiles at the same time? After hundreds of planes shot down and hundreds of airports destroyed by actor Shoigu in a single week.
There was one good news, the Kherson general clown was fired a few days ago, so let’s see what the new guy does.
Posted by: rk | Oct 30 2023 12:19 utc | 127
@Julian | Oct 30 2023 11:51 utc | 62
There is absolutely no way they will even get out of Donbass with the current resources, number of soldiers and government of US butt kissers and abramoviches. The Gaza lifestyle won’t end by their own military means, surely not these means. The one and only success is the reduction in the numbers of ukro nazi zombies but even that that is on the low side and won’t solve any of their problems. Who needs soldiers when they can shoot apparently at least 10 missiles at the same time? After hundreds of planes shot down and hundreds of airports destroyed by actor Shoigu in a single week.
There was one good news, the Kherson general clown was fired a few days ago, so let’s see what the new guy does.
Posted by: rk | Oct 30 2023 12:19 utc | 128
by Julian | Oct 30 2023 11:51 utc | 62
The only one thing is going to stop this skirmish faster, and that is possible liberation of Southern Odesa Oblast.
Having RF on the Northern Romanian border wins the Black Sea domination and then some more, while securing the Crimea.
That liberation will also get a pretty good connect to Transnistria, reaching in depth and at the nexus of NATO’s overall stability and existence in the region.
What we see now and all the time is “eyes here please, while we do something else over there” a skillful Russian psy-op for the foreign media.
The rest of Moldova is never going to be a NATO land, as well as the smoldering leftovers of the Western Ukraine.
Posted by: whirlX | Oct 30 2023 12:28 utc | 129
by Julian | Oct 30 2023 11:51 utc | 62
The only one thing is going to stop this skirmish faster, and that is possible liberation of Southern Odesa Oblast.
Having RF on the Northern Romanian border wins the Black Sea domination and then some more, while securing the Crimea.
That liberation will also get a pretty good connect to Transnistria, reaching in depth and at the nexus of NATO’s overall stability and existence in the region.
What we see now and all the time is “eyes here please, while we do something else over there” a skillful Russian psy-op for the foreign media.
The rest of Moldova is never going to be a NATO land, as well as the smoldering leftovers of the Western Ukraine.
Posted by: whirlX | Oct 30 2023 12:28 utc | 130
65 comments on the Ukraine thread.
430 on the Israel-Hamas thread.
Zelenski is so screwed….
Posted by: Alexander P | Oct 30 2023 14:03 utc | 131
65 comments on the Ukraine thread.
430 on the Israel-Hamas thread.
Zelenski is so screwed….
Posted by: Alexander P | Oct 30 2023 14:03 utc | 132
strana, Explosions were heard in Sevastopol. Russian Defense Ministry says eight Storm Shadow missiles attacked Crimea, 30 Oct
Yesterday’s Military Summary sitrep did not see that coming.
Posted by: sln2002 | Oct 30 2023 14:44 utc | 133
strana, Explosions were heard in Sevastopol. Russian Defense Ministry says eight Storm Shadow missiles attacked Crimea, 30 Oct
Yesterday’s Military Summary sitrep did not see that coming.
Posted by: sln2002 | Oct 30 2023 14:44 utc | 134
Alexander P @ 66
65 comments on the Ukraine thread. 430 on the Israel-Hamas thread. Zelenski is so screwed….
He’s probably over there posting too.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 30 2023 14:52 utc | 135
Alexander P @ 66
65 comments on the Ukraine thread. 430 on the Israel-Hamas thread. Zelenski is so screwed….
He’s probably over there posting too.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 30 2023 14:52 utc | 136
Alexander P | Oct 30 2023 14:03 utc | 66
if they depended on trollery to win, they are in trouble.
Posted by: Not Ewe | Oct 30 2023 14:53 utc | 137
Alexander P | Oct 30 2023 14:03 utc | 66
if they depended on trollery to win, they are in trouble.
Posted by: Not Ewe | Oct 30 2023 14:53 utc | 138
“Ukrainian Resident Exposes Alarming Threat from Right Sector: No Help if Authorities Seize You”
A concerning video has surfaced wherein law enforcement officers, believed to be affiliated with the nationalist Right Sector, cautioned a Ukrainian resident that no assistance would be available if the authorities were to apprehend them. The footage shows the police displaying a seemingly lighthearted reaction to inquiries related to mobilization.
@ukr_leaks_eng
“>https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1718916574852059481
No one is taking any more responsibility of anything in Ukraine. The central government is operating on a mafia basis and the constitutional law has been dismantled. The government of Ukraine only now exists for PR purposes in the western media, aimed for westerners. It doesn’t exist in Ukraine or for Ukrainians.
Ukraine is an example what could possibly happen in the west next – wild west where your survival is up to you and evading thugs from encounters which could cost you your life.
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 30 2023 15:02 utc | 139
“Ukrainian Resident Exposes Alarming Threat from Right Sector: No Help if Authorities Seize You”
A concerning video has surfaced wherein law enforcement officers, believed to be affiliated with the nationalist Right Sector, cautioned a Ukrainian resident that no assistance would be available if the authorities were to apprehend them. The footage shows the police displaying a seemingly lighthearted reaction to inquiries related to mobilization.
@ukr_leaks_eng
“>https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1718916574852059481
No one is taking any more responsibility of anything in Ukraine. The central government is operating on a mafia basis and the constitutional law has been dismantled. The government of Ukraine only now exists for PR purposes in the western media, aimed for westerners. It doesn’t exist in Ukraine or for Ukrainians.
Ukraine is an example what could possibly happen in the west next – wild west where your survival is up to you and evading thugs from encounters which could cost you your life.
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 30 2023 15:02 utc | 140
strana, Explosions were heard in Sevastopol. Russian Defense Ministry says eight Storm Shadow missiles attacked Crimea, 30 Oct
Yesterday’s Military Summary sitrep did not see that coming.
Posted by: sln2002 | Oct 30 2023 14:44 utc | 67
Use it or lose it?
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 30 2023 15:02 utc | 141
strana, Explosions were heard in Sevastopol. Russian Defense Ministry says eight Storm Shadow missiles attacked Crimea, 30 Oct
Yesterday’s Military Summary sitrep did not see that coming.
Posted by: sln2002 | Oct 30 2023 14:44 utc | 67
Use it or lose it?
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 30 2023 15:02 utc | 142
sln2002 @ 67
strana, Explosions were heard in Sevastopol. Russian Defense Ministry says eight Storm Shadow missiles attacked Crimea, 30 Oct. Yesterday’s Military Summary sitrep did not see that coming.
The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that Crimea was attacked by 8 Storm Shadow missiles. It is stated that they were all shot down. “Governor” of Sevastopol Mikhail Razvozzhaev reported that in Sevastopol one person was injured due to falling rocket debris.
Let us remind you that this morning the Russian Ministry of Defense announced an attack by two naval drones in the temporarily occupied Crimea . It was alleged that they were hit by fire.
Russian public pages wrote that at night there was also a missile attack on an air defense missile and anti-aircraft regiment near the village of Olenevka in the west of the peninsula, as a result of which 17 Russian servicemen were wounded. Later, the Ukrainian Armed Forces confirmed that tonight they hit a Russian air defense system on the western coast of Crimea.
I would think other than air defense systems most high value targets have been removed from Sevastopol, seems Ukraine has Storm Shadows to spare as terror weapons. $25.52 million to hit what exactly in Sevastopol? Wish I could beg up as much scratch as Zelensky:
“Google – How much does a Storm Shadow missile cost? A Storm Shadow missile costs about £2.54 million (US$3.19 million) per unit.”
Not impossible NATO has decided the Storm Shadows are worthless crap and might as well use them up as gold plated diamond studded Buzz Bombs.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 30 2023 15:08 utc | 143
sln2002 @ 67
strana, Explosions were heard in Sevastopol. Russian Defense Ministry says eight Storm Shadow missiles attacked Crimea, 30 Oct. Yesterday’s Military Summary sitrep did not see that coming.
The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that Crimea was attacked by 8 Storm Shadow missiles. It is stated that they were all shot down. “Governor” of Sevastopol Mikhail Razvozzhaev reported that in Sevastopol one person was injured due to falling rocket debris.
Let us remind you that this morning the Russian Ministry of Defense announced an attack by two naval drones in the temporarily occupied Crimea . It was alleged that they were hit by fire.
Russian public pages wrote that at night there was also a missile attack on an air defense missile and anti-aircraft regiment near the village of Olenevka in the west of the peninsula, as a result of which 17 Russian servicemen were wounded. Later, the Ukrainian Armed Forces confirmed that tonight they hit a Russian air defense system on the western coast of Crimea.
I would think other than air defense systems most high value targets have been removed from Sevastopol, seems Ukraine has Storm Shadows to spare as terror weapons. $25.52 million to hit what exactly in Sevastopol? Wish I could beg up as much scratch as Zelensky:
“Google – How much does a Storm Shadow missile cost? A Storm Shadow missile costs about £2.54 million (US$3.19 million) per unit.”
Not impossible NATO has decided the Storm Shadows are worthless crap and might as well use them up as gold plated diamond studded Buzz Bombs.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 30 2023 15:08 utc | 144
Alexander P | Oct 30 2023 14:03 utc | 66
Today we have day 614 of special op in ukraine.
And gaza vs Isr. we write day 23.
When we have day 614 in Israel vs Palastine nobody´ll find this country Isr. on a map…
Posted by: Oberbayer | Oct 30 2023 15:09 utc | 145
Alexander P | Oct 30 2023 14:03 utc | 66
Today we have day 614 of special op in ukraine.
And gaza vs Isr. we write day 23.
When we have day 614 in Israel vs Palastine nobody´ll find this country Isr. on a map…
Posted by: Oberbayer | Oct 30 2023 15:09 utc | 146
Newbie @ 71
Use it or lose it?
Beat me to it. And, more succinct.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 30 2023 15:10 utc | 147
Newbie @ 71
Use it or lose it?
Beat me to it. And, more succinct.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 30 2023 15:10 utc | 148
John Helmer provides his unique insight…
https://johnhelmer.net/when-the-devil-drives-what-needs-come-first-the-gorilla-radio-podcast-answers/
A Moscow source confirms the US is the priority Russian target because the IDF cannot continue in Gaza as the US capabilities exhaust themselves. He believes that US over-exertion in the Middle East will accelerate the Russian military’s move on to the offensive on the Ukrainian battlefield, and shorten thereby that war. The public statements for mediation between the warring parties issued by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his ministry are not the full Russian story, the source believes. The first need in Lavrov’s mediation, he says, is between the General Staff and the Kremlin. The second priority is to let the Americans demonstrate their weakness across the region by conserving the Palestinians in place, deterring Egyptian and Jordanian concessions, and preventing a direct attack on Iran. “The real Russian position , not the public statements , ultimately comes down to what level of military cooperation the Ministry of Defense has with Teheran. The Syrian and Ukrainian wars have made this very deep. I expect the Foreign Ministry’s public line will change when the Palestinian casualties reach 20,000. As the official Israeli statements against the Russian government already make clear, they know what is going on behind the scenes. It’s not just the Caucasian Muslims now but most Russians feel there’s been enough crying support for Israel. Lavrov will catch up.”
“I would say the real work now in Moscow is on ensuring the Americans do not directly attack Iran. The rest is going to play out according to the General Staff’s road map Lavrov could and should have in front of him. Call it the long war for short.”
From a logistical point of view… given the limits on NATO war materiel production..
The enormous stocks sent to Israel, favoring stuff for an air campaign, should finally empty the cupboard…
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 30 2023 15:11 utc | 149
John Helmer provides his unique insight…
https://johnhelmer.net/when-the-devil-drives-what-needs-come-first-the-gorilla-radio-podcast-answers/
A Moscow source confirms the US is the priority Russian target because the IDF cannot continue in Gaza as the US capabilities exhaust themselves. He believes that US over-exertion in the Middle East will accelerate the Russian military’s move on to the offensive on the Ukrainian battlefield, and shorten thereby that war. The public statements for mediation between the warring parties issued by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his ministry are not the full Russian story, the source believes. The first need in Lavrov’s mediation, he says, is between the General Staff and the Kremlin. The second priority is to let the Americans demonstrate their weakness across the region by conserving the Palestinians in place, deterring Egyptian and Jordanian concessions, and preventing a direct attack on Iran. “The real Russian position , not the public statements , ultimately comes down to what level of military cooperation the Ministry of Defense has with Teheran. The Syrian and Ukrainian wars have made this very deep. I expect the Foreign Ministry’s public line will change when the Palestinian casualties reach 20,000. As the official Israeli statements against the Russian government already make clear, they know what is going on behind the scenes. It’s not just the Caucasian Muslims now but most Russians feel there’s been enough crying support for Israel. Lavrov will catch up.”
“I would say the real work now in Moscow is on ensuring the Americans do not directly attack Iran. The rest is going to play out according to the General Staff’s road map Lavrov could and should have in front of him. Call it the long war for short.”
From a logistical point of view… given the limits on NATO war materiel production..
The enormous stocks sent to Israel, favoring stuff for an air campaign, should finally empty the cupboard…
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 30 2023 15:11 utc | 150
Not impossible NATO has decided the Storm Shadows are worthless crap and might as well use them up as gold plated diamond studded Buzz Bombs.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 30 2023 15:08 utc | 72
I think of it as a desperate attempt to show they can actually do some damage to the Russians. Maybe a need to change the subject from Occupied Palestine too.
Posted by: Bemildred | Oct 30 2023 15:14 utc | 151
Not impossible NATO has decided the Storm Shadows are worthless crap and might as well use them up as gold plated diamond studded Buzz Bombs.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 30 2023 15:08 utc | 72
I think of it as a desperate attempt to show they can actually do some damage to the Russians. Maybe a need to change the subject from Occupied Palestine too.
Posted by: Bemildred | Oct 30 2023 15:14 utc | 152
@ Down South, §50:
“Dagestan” is a religiously defined entity.
The Adygh, Abkhaz, Cherkessk, Kabardin and Chechen republics are all defined linguistically (with Turkish minorities such as the Balkar and Karachai in most). They have become secular with national expression being through literature, music, dance and sport: religion has, thankfully withered but is still there.
Dagestan divides naturally into predominantly Avar, Tsez, Lak, Dargwa and Lezgian provinces with, again, Turks (such as the Nogai, Kumyks, etc.) scattered among them.
Perhaps the RF should give consideration to dissolving the Dagestan republic and follow the model of the Adygh, etc., republics. Five peaceful mini-nations (Avar, Tsez, Lak, Dargwa, Lezgian) would be calmer than the present Muslim-focussed entity.
Posted by: John Marks | Oct 30 2023 15:37 utc | 153
@ Down South, §50:
“Dagestan” is a religiously defined entity.
The Adygh, Abkhaz, Cherkessk, Kabardin and Chechen republics are all defined linguistically (with Turkish minorities such as the Balkar and Karachai in most). They have become secular with national expression being through literature, music, dance and sport: religion has, thankfully withered but is still there.
Dagestan divides naturally into predominantly Avar, Tsez, Lak, Dargwa and Lezgian provinces with, again, Turks (such as the Nogai, Kumyks, etc.) scattered among them.
Perhaps the RF should give consideration to dissolving the Dagestan republic and follow the model of the Adygh, etc., republics. Five peaceful mini-nations (Avar, Tsez, Lak, Dargwa, Lezgian) would be calmer than the present Muslim-focussed entity.
Posted by: John Marks | Oct 30 2023 15:37 utc | 154
@ Justpassinby | Oct 29 2023 23:09 utc | 37
Only thing is: What’s left for the ”big one” against Russki “orcs”? All I see are F 35s, nukes, and undertrained soldiers who might feel secure in their pronouns.
Posted by: malenkov | Oct 29 2023 23:15 utc | 38
Tomahawk missiles, more and longer ranged ATACMS, allowing Ukrainian aviation to be based out of NATO countries, sheep-dipped NATO pilots, a “Polish Expeditionary Force”, whether went in to “advise”, to “secure western Ukraine and thereby free up Ukrainian troops for the front” or to directly participate, etc., etc..
Posted by: Feral Finster | Oct 30 2023 15:41 utc | 155
@ Justpassinby | Oct 29 2023 23:09 utc | 37
Only thing is: What’s left for the ”big one” against Russki “orcs”? All I see are F 35s, nukes, and undertrained soldiers who might feel secure in their pronouns.
Posted by: malenkov | Oct 29 2023 23:15 utc | 38
Tomahawk missiles, more and longer ranged ATACMS, allowing Ukrainian aviation to be based out of NATO countries, sheep-dipped NATO pilots, a “Polish Expeditionary Force”, whether went in to “advise”, to “secure western Ukraine and thereby free up Ukrainian troops for the front” or to directly participate, etc., etc..
Posted by: Feral Finster | Oct 30 2023 15:41 utc | 156
Well if you live in the US this is a must see movie
“Finding the money”
https://stephaniekelton.substack.com/p/finding-the-money-winning-awards
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Oct 30 2023 16:06 utc | 157
Well if you live in the US this is a must see movie
“Finding the money”
https://stephaniekelton.substack.com/p/finding-the-money-winning-awards
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Oct 30 2023 16:06 utc | 158
Zelenskyy’s frustration boiling over, but his resolve to prevail remains unbroken – TIME
In an article about the situation with the Russo-Ukrainian war, Time columnist Simon Shuster writes with reference to anonymous interlocutors allegedly in the circle of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that he “feels betrayed by his Western allies” who “left him without the means to win the war, only the means to survive it”. Despite this, the Ukrainian leader is not going to give up fighting and sign a truce with the occupiers, but his belief in the victory of Ukraine worries some of his aides, the article says.
Zelenskyy’s last visit to Washington, where he addressed Congress and spoke with the country’s leadership, did not yield the results he had hoped for, the author of the article claims.
“I asked one member of his circle how the President was feeling. The response came without a second’s hesitation: ‘Angry’. The usual sparkle of his optimism, his sense of humor, his tendency to liven up a meeting in the war room with a bit of banter or a bawdy joke, none of that has survived into the second year of all-out war,” Shuster writes.
According to one longtime member of the president’s team, “now he walks in, gets the updates, gives the orders, and walks out.”
Posted by: Dubu | Oct 30 2023 16:47 utc | 159
Zelenskyy’s frustration boiling over, but his resolve to prevail remains unbroken – TIME
In an article about the situation with the Russo-Ukrainian war, Time columnist Simon Shuster writes with reference to anonymous interlocutors allegedly in the circle of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that he “feels betrayed by his Western allies” who “left him without the means to win the war, only the means to survive it”. Despite this, the Ukrainian leader is not going to give up fighting and sign a truce with the occupiers, but his belief in the victory of Ukraine worries some of his aides, the article says.
Zelenskyy’s last visit to Washington, where he addressed Congress and spoke with the country’s leadership, did not yield the results he had hoped for, the author of the article claims.
“I asked one member of his circle how the President was feeling. The response came without a second’s hesitation: ‘Angry’. The usual sparkle of his optimism, his sense of humor, his tendency to liven up a meeting in the war room with a bit of banter or a bawdy joke, none of that has survived into the second year of all-out war,” Shuster writes.
According to one longtime member of the president’s team, “now he walks in, gets the updates, gives the orders, and walks out.”
Posted by: Dubu | Oct 30 2023 16:47 utc | 160
Seems the near term, and perhaps longer term, trajectory of the SMO will be decided in Gaza and the ME. Who would have predicted this a year ago? The future twists and turns in unpredictable ways.
Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 30 2023 17:03 utc | 161
Seems the near term, and perhaps longer term, trajectory of the SMO will be decided in Gaza and the ME. Who would have predicted this a year ago? The future twists and turns in unpredictable ways.
Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 30 2023 17:03 utc | 162
MiniMO@56
Thanks for that. A very interesting perspective.
Posted by: bevin | Oct 30 2023 17:47 utc | 163
MiniMO@56
Thanks for that. A very interesting perspective.
Posted by: bevin | Oct 30 2023 17:47 utc | 164
Posted by: Dubu | Oct 30 2023 16:47 utc | 80
Zelensky’s usefulness is fully tied to how many people they can still garner up for mobilization in Ukraine. That is the only thing.
It will mean many people will yet get mobilized and die in vain, because as everyone knows, useless things tend to disappear.
Anyway, it does seem like Mr. Bhadrakumar said that the war in Ukraine is on autopilot and Russia seems to be watching whether things spill over on Syria.
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 30 2023 18:11 utc | 165
Posted by: Dubu | Oct 30 2023 16:47 utc | 80
Zelensky’s usefulness is fully tied to how many people they can still garner up for mobilization in Ukraine. That is the only thing.
It will mean many people will yet get mobilized and die in vain, because as everyone knows, useless things tend to disappear.
Anyway, it does seem like Mr. Bhadrakumar said that the war in Ukraine is on autopilot and Russia seems to be watching whether things spill over on Syria.
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 30 2023 18:11 utc | 166
It’s hard not to hope that the Germans, or Americans, appoint someone named Steiner to head an effort to salvage the situation for the Zelenskyy regime.
YouTube might not yet allow Downfall parodies of Zelenskyy, but once Russia’s tracked vehicles start rolling over frozen ground this winter, or hard ground next summer, and Zelenskyy’s pronouncements become fully deranged, we will see videos of Hitler/Zelenskyy telling everyone in the bunker to chill out, Steiner was going to take care of things.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 30 2023 18:20 utc | 167
It’s hard not to hope that the Germans, or Americans, appoint someone named Steiner to head an effort to salvage the situation for the Zelenskyy regime.
YouTube might not yet allow Downfall parodies of Zelenskyy, but once Russia’s tracked vehicles start rolling over frozen ground this winter, or hard ground next summer, and Zelenskyy’s pronouncements become fully deranged, we will see videos of Hitler/Zelenskyy telling everyone in the bunker to chill out, Steiner was going to take care of things.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 30 2023 18:20 utc | 168
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 30 2023 18:11 utc | 83
Most Ukrainians are very poor and the rest have only one god, $ or €.
Surely many people will be very angry after the war, but if you offer them a few $ or €, most will choose the same people again.
Posted by: theo | Oct 30 2023 18:38 utc | 169
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 30 2023 18:11 utc | 83
Most Ukrainians are very poor and the rest have only one god, $ or €.
Surely many people will be very angry after the war, but if you offer them a few $ or €, most will choose the same people again.
Posted by: theo | Oct 30 2023 18:38 utc | 170
strana, Explosions were heard in Sevastopol. Russian Defense Ministry says eight Storm Shadow missiles attacked Crimea, 30 Oct
Yesterday’s Military Summary sitrep did not see that coming.
Posted by: sln2002 | Oct 30 2023 14:44 utc | 67
Use it or lose it?
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 30 2023 15:02 utc | 71
I remember Dima said after the drone attack on Crimea (yesterday, or the day before) that you could expect another attack with more powerful aircraft, the drones were trying to suss out the Russian AD. The Ukies may have decided they better launch their SS missiles while they still have some SU-24’s left. At two per plane, that’s 4 jets to launch this salvo. Last time they launched 12(?) missiles. Possibly they have another aircraft that can carry these missiles now, but my understanding is that the only Soviet era aircraft that has been modified to carry them is the SU24.
Posted by: Mike R | Oct 30 2023 18:41 utc | 171
strana, Explosions were heard in Sevastopol. Russian Defense Ministry says eight Storm Shadow missiles attacked Crimea, 30 Oct
Yesterday’s Military Summary sitrep did not see that coming.
Posted by: sln2002 | Oct 30 2023 14:44 utc | 67
Use it or lose it?
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 30 2023 15:02 utc | 71
I remember Dima said after the drone attack on Crimea (yesterday, or the day before) that you could expect another attack with more powerful aircraft, the drones were trying to suss out the Russian AD. The Ukies may have decided they better launch their SS missiles while they still have some SU-24’s left. At two per plane, that’s 4 jets to launch this salvo. Last time they launched 12(?) missiles. Possibly they have another aircraft that can carry these missiles now, but my understanding is that the only Soviet era aircraft that has been modified to carry them is the SU24.
Posted by: Mike R | Oct 30 2023 18:41 utc | 172
Southfront has a compilation of recent events.
About the Storm shadow attack, 8 were launched from 4 aircraft (1 Su-24, 3 Su-27). In addition 2 Neptune ASMs launched from Odessa region. Targeting was provided by 3 UAVs over the city.
RUAF claims all missiles and drones were shot down using Pantsir and S-400 and debris fell onto private property.
Additionally, one oil refinery in Krasnodar region was attacked. 35 drones intercepted approaching Crimea. Settlements on the Belgorod border area were shelled.
https://southfront.press/military-overview-of-situation-in-ukraine-on-october-28-30-2023-sides-are-in-wait-and-see-position/
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 30 2023 18:49 utc | 173
Southfront has a compilation of recent events.
About the Storm shadow attack, 8 were launched from 4 aircraft (1 Su-24, 3 Su-27). In addition 2 Neptune ASMs launched from Odessa region. Targeting was provided by 3 UAVs over the city.
RUAF claims all missiles and drones were shot down using Pantsir and S-400 and debris fell onto private property.
Additionally, one oil refinery in Krasnodar region was attacked. 35 drones intercepted approaching Crimea. Settlements on the Belgorod border area were shelled.
https://southfront.press/military-overview-of-situation-in-ukraine-on-october-28-30-2023-sides-are-in-wait-and-see-position/
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 30 2023 18:49 utc | 174
The Biden administration has a problem with its younger, most vocal, prospective voters. There are the “Jimmy Dore Democrats” who oppose America getting all those Ukrainians killed for no good reason, and also oppose the slaughter of innocent Palestinians, and Israel appropriating their land and leaving them to live in an open air prison.
Then there are the “BLM” Democrats, along with generic Muslim Democrats, who are generally very displeased with the Biden administration for being in thrall to a brutal crook like Netanyahu.
Zelenskyy and his regime have the stink of failure and death on them, and tying aid to Israel with aid to Ukraine could be a bridge too far for the Biden administration, and they might have to make a Sophie’s Choice. Netanyahu is utterly unlikable, but he knows how to make himself useful, and to effectively blackmail his allies. Zelenskyy has an actor’s charm, but his usefulness in wearing out Russia is rapidly diminishing, and his ability to blackmail the West into aiding him is also in decline. He must know that it’s becoming easier and easier for those who’d benefit from eliminating him to be able to get away with that with minimal repercussions.
Yadda yadda yadda, the new Republican Speaker of the House is imo likely very loathe, and disinclined, to meekly agree to giving President Biden everything he is asking for. Cutting aid to Ukraine could be the price he demands for allowing Biden to claim success in delivering for Israel, bigly.
The Speaker has show signs of knowing how to embarass Biden over his asking for money for both Ukraine and Israel. He’s offered a hair more money for Israel than Biden asked for, and he’s been on the phone with Netanyahu.
Like I said, Zelenskyy has the stink of failure and the blood of his own people on him, and Biden can’t afford to have that smell in the room when dickering over an aid package to Israel, something he has to deliver on, and something he needs to hold up as a victory for his administration. The new House Speaker has to have credibility with nearly everyone who voted him in to his position, and saving money by cutting aid to Zelenskyy is how he’d get that.
A majority of his caucus might balk at that, but those members have to deliver for Israel, and sooner rather than later. If the Speaker is adroit, he can sell them on the idea that getting tough with Ukraine will ultimately be a winner at the ballot box, both in the primry elections, and in the general elections.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 30 2023 18:51 utc | 175
The Biden administration has a problem with its younger, most vocal, prospective voters. There are the “Jimmy Dore Democrats” who oppose America getting all those Ukrainians killed for no good reason, and also oppose the slaughter of innocent Palestinians, and Israel appropriating their land and leaving them to live in an open air prison.
Then there are the “BLM” Democrats, along with generic Muslim Democrats, who are generally very displeased with the Biden administration for being in thrall to a brutal crook like Netanyahu.
Zelenskyy and his regime have the stink of failure and death on them, and tying aid to Israel with aid to Ukraine could be a bridge too far for the Biden administration, and they might have to make a Sophie’s Choice. Netanyahu is utterly unlikable, but he knows how to make himself useful, and to effectively blackmail his allies. Zelenskyy has an actor’s charm, but his usefulness in wearing out Russia is rapidly diminishing, and his ability to blackmail the West into aiding him is also in decline. He must know that it’s becoming easier and easier for those who’d benefit from eliminating him to be able to get away with that with minimal repercussions.
Yadda yadda yadda, the new Republican Speaker of the House is imo likely very loathe, and disinclined, to meekly agree to giving President Biden everything he is asking for. Cutting aid to Ukraine could be the price he demands for allowing Biden to claim success in delivering for Israel, bigly.
The Speaker has show signs of knowing how to embarass Biden over his asking for money for both Ukraine and Israel. He’s offered a hair more money for Israel than Biden asked for, and he’s been on the phone with Netanyahu.
Like I said, Zelenskyy has the stink of failure and the blood of his own people on him, and Biden can’t afford to have that smell in the room when dickering over an aid package to Israel, something he has to deliver on, and something he needs to hold up as a victory for his administration. The new House Speaker has to have credibility with nearly everyone who voted him in to his position, and saving money by cutting aid to Zelenskyy is how he’d get that.
A majority of his caucus might balk at that, but those members have to deliver for Israel, and sooner rather than later. If the Speaker is adroit, he can sell them on the idea that getting tough with Ukraine will ultimately be a winner at the ballot box, both in the primry elections, and in the general elections.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 30 2023 18:51 utc | 176
@Echo Chamber | Oct 30 2023 16:06 utc | 79
Re the documentary “Finding the Money”, I’ll save you a click. Though the site carefully hides it, this is a pro-MMT polemic.
MMT meaning “Modern Monetary Theory”. I invented this as a child when I told my parents that if we ever needed more money, we could just go to the bank and get it. The idea has not improved since.
Posted by: Boris Badenov | Oct 30 2023 19:16 utc | 177
@Echo Chamber | Oct 30 2023 16:06 utc | 79
Re the documentary “Finding the Money”, I’ll save you a click. Though the site carefully hides it, this is a pro-MMT polemic.
MMT meaning “Modern Monetary Theory”. I invented this as a child when I told my parents that if we ever needed more money, we could just go to the bank and get it. The idea has not improved since.
Posted by: Boris Badenov | Oct 30 2023 19:16 utc | 178
Julian | Oct 30 2023 10:37 utc | 61
*** Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Artsakh that Russia froze for its ally Armenia in 1992 worked out?
Russia froze the conflict instead of finishing it – and then what happened? 30 years of nothing – and then what?***
Well, a lump of shit Russia should have long since terminated betrayed Armenia to both NATO and the Azeris. He was always known for wanting to do that.
But that’s hardly surprising, since it is another situation that arose from the top people in Moscow being basically neoliberal Atlanticists (or worse) themselves .
Posted by: Cynic | Oct 30 2023 19:28 utc | 179
Julian | Oct 30 2023 10:37 utc | 61
*** Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Artsakh that Russia froze for its ally Armenia in 1992 worked out?
Russia froze the conflict instead of finishing it – and then what happened? 30 years of nothing – and then what?***
Well, a lump of shit Russia should have long since terminated betrayed Armenia to both NATO and the Azeris. He was always known for wanting to do that.
But that’s hardly surprising, since it is another situation that arose from the top people in Moscow being basically neoliberal Atlanticists (or worse) themselves .
Posted by: Cynic | Oct 30 2023 19:28 utc | 180
Sergei Shoigu: Ukraine has lost over 90,000 Ukrainian troops killed and wounded during the counteroffensive since 4 June 2023
▫️ During this time, almost 600 tanks and about 1,900 enemy armoured vehicles were neutralised.
▫️ The Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost over 90,000 Ukrainian troops killed and wounded during the counteroffensive launched this summer without achieving any significant successes on the battlefield, said Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.
▫️ ‘Since 4 June, that is, since the beginning of the widely publicised and generously sponsored by the West Ukrainian counteroffensive Kiev has lost over 90,000 troops killed and wounded, about 600 tanks and almost 1,900 armoured vehicles of various type. Nevertheless, no tactically significant gains were made on the battlefield,’ said Russian Defence Minister General of the Army Sergei Shoigu at the 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum on Monday.
▫️ Russian servicemen continue methodically and confidently to perform tasks in the special military operation zone, said the Russian Defence Minister.
▫️ He noted, ‘The Russian Armed Forces will continue to methodically and confidently complete tasks and ensure the safety of civilians’.
Sergei Shoigu: Western claims against Russia regarding its alleged lowering of threshold for use of nuclear weapons are absolutely groundless
▫️ Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has described claims by the West against Russia regarding its alleged lowering of the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, including as a result of the withdrawal of ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), as absolutely groundless.
▫️ ‘These accusations are absolutely groundless. Russia’s nuclear doctrine has not changed and still provides for the use of nuclear weapons only in two cases: in response to an enemy nuclear strike or if there is a threat to Russia’s existence, even if conventional weapons are used against it,’ said Sergei Shoigu on Monday, speaking at the 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum.
▫️ This is how the Russian military chief commented on the Western camp’s claims against Russia over its alleged lowering of the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, including as a result of the withdrawal of the CTBT ratification.
Sergei Shoigu: Russian-Chinese partnership is built in contrast to general situation of tension caused by actions of West
▫️ Strategic cooperation between Moscow and Beijing is building up in contrast to the hotbeds of tension caused by the actions of Western countries, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said during talks with Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Youxi in Beijing on Monday.
▫️ ‘Unfortunately, the military and political situation in the world is not getting calmer. New hotbeds of tension are emerging and old ones are escalating. In fact, this is the result of geopolitical adventures, egoistic neo-colonial actions of the West. The Russian-Chinese comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation are being built in contrast to the general alarming situation,’ Sergei Shoigu said.
▫️ According to to the Minister, ‘traditionally friendly relations retain high dynamics of development and are getting stronger in all directions’.
▫️ A special role in this, Sergei Shoigu noted, is played by trusting contacts between the leaders of the two countries.
▫️ ‘This year they have held two face-to-face meetings. In March, Xi Jinping’s state visit to the Russian Federation was successful. The first foreign visit after his re-election to the highest state post became Beijing’s strategic choice in favour of strengthening cooperation with Moscow,’ said the Russian Defence Minister.
▫️ On 17-18 October, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Beijing, where he took part in the Third International Forum ‘One Belt, One Road’ as the chief guest.
▫️ ‘His talks with President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping took place, during which, among other things, attention was paid to deepening military cooperation using all mechanisms of interaction,’ said Sergei Shoigu.
▫️ ‘Russia and China consider each other as priority partners on the world arena,’ stressed the Minister.
▫️ Sergei Shoigu expressed confidence that ‘today’s meeting will contribute to deepening ties between the defence ministries of the two countries and will serve to strengthen regional and global security.’
▫️ Upon the arrival of the Russian Defence Minister for the talks with Zhang Youxia from the Chinese side, the Russian delegation was officially welcomed by an honour guard company and a band.
▫️ The meeting between Sergei Shoigu and Zhang Youxia took place on the margins of the 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum, which is taking place in China.
▫️ Prior to the plenary session, the Russian Defence Minister actively communicated with his colleagues not only from the CIS and SCO countries, but also from other states. In particular, ‘on his feet’ he exchanged views with the heads of delegations from Belarus, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Laos, Mongolia, Myanmar, Vietnam, Nigeria and other countries.
Sergei Shoigu: productive talks on security issues with West are impossible without West’s revision of its line of ‘strategic defeat’ of Russia
▫️ The West’s line on inflicting a ‘strategic defeat’ on Russian Federation virtually nullifies the possibility of constructive discussions on security issues, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said, speaking at the 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum on Monday.
▫️ ‘Russia is open to discussing and resolving any security issues if this dialogue is honest, equal and based on mutual respect of the contracting parties. However, without the West reconsidering its destructive line, which envisages inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia, productive negotiations in this sphere are hardly possible,’ said Sergei Shoigu.
Sergei Shoigu: Russia is ready for realistic talks on Ukraine crisis settlement and co-existence with West
▫️’Russia remains ready for political talks on resolving the post-conflict situation in Ukraine and continuing to coexist with the West’, said Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.
▫️’Should the necessary conditions be created, we remain ready for realistic political discussions, both on the post-conflict settlement of the Ukrainian crisis and on the parameters of further coexistence with the West as a whole’,said Sergei Shoigu at the 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum on Monday.
▫️’It is important for global stability to ensure equal relations among the nuclear-weapon states that are permanent members of the UNSC’, said the Russian Defence Minister.
▫️’It is important to ensure equitable relations among all nuclear-weapon states – permanent members of the UN Security Council (UNSC), which have a special responsibility for maintaining peace and global stability’, he said.
▫️’The international security architecture needs to be renewed and made more sustainable in order to create a just, multipolar world order.
▫️This will require the combined efforts of all the countries concerned’, said the Russian Defence Minister.
🔹 Russian Defence Ministry
Posted by: Dubu | Oct 30 2023 19:46 utc | 181
Sergei Shoigu: Ukraine has lost over 90,000 Ukrainian troops killed and wounded during the counteroffensive since 4 June 2023
▫️ During this time, almost 600 tanks and about 1,900 enemy armoured vehicles were neutralised.
▫️ The Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost over 90,000 Ukrainian troops killed and wounded during the counteroffensive launched this summer without achieving any significant successes on the battlefield, said Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.
▫️ ‘Since 4 June, that is, since the beginning of the widely publicised and generously sponsored by the West Ukrainian counteroffensive Kiev has lost over 90,000 troops killed and wounded, about 600 tanks and almost 1,900 armoured vehicles of various type. Nevertheless, no tactically significant gains were made on the battlefield,’ said Russian Defence Minister General of the Army Sergei Shoigu at the 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum on Monday.
▫️ Russian servicemen continue methodically and confidently to perform tasks in the special military operation zone, said the Russian Defence Minister.
▫️ He noted, ‘The Russian Armed Forces will continue to methodically and confidently complete tasks and ensure the safety of civilians’.
Sergei Shoigu: Western claims against Russia regarding its alleged lowering of threshold for use of nuclear weapons are absolutely groundless
▫️ Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has described claims by the West against Russia regarding its alleged lowering of the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, including as a result of the withdrawal of ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), as absolutely groundless.
▫️ ‘These accusations are absolutely groundless. Russia’s nuclear doctrine has not changed and still provides for the use of nuclear weapons only in two cases: in response to an enemy nuclear strike or if there is a threat to Russia’s existence, even if conventional weapons are used against it,’ said Sergei Shoigu on Monday, speaking at the 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum.
▫️ This is how the Russian military chief commented on the Western camp’s claims against Russia over its alleged lowering of the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, including as a result of the withdrawal of the CTBT ratification.
Sergei Shoigu: Russian-Chinese partnership is built in contrast to general situation of tension caused by actions of West
▫️ Strategic cooperation between Moscow and Beijing is building up in contrast to the hotbeds of tension caused by the actions of Western countries, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said during talks with Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Youxi in Beijing on Monday.
▫️ ‘Unfortunately, the military and political situation in the world is not getting calmer. New hotbeds of tension are emerging and old ones are escalating. In fact, this is the result of geopolitical adventures, egoistic neo-colonial actions of the West. The Russian-Chinese comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation are being built in contrast to the general alarming situation,’ Sergei Shoigu said.
▫️ According to to the Minister, ‘traditionally friendly relations retain high dynamics of development and are getting stronger in all directions’.
▫️ A special role in this, Sergei Shoigu noted, is played by trusting contacts between the leaders of the two countries.
▫️ ‘This year they have held two face-to-face meetings. In March, Xi Jinping’s state visit to the Russian Federation was successful. The first foreign visit after his re-election to the highest state post became Beijing’s strategic choice in favour of strengthening cooperation with Moscow,’ said the Russian Defence Minister.
▫️ On 17-18 October, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Beijing, where he took part in the Third International Forum ‘One Belt, One Road’ as the chief guest.
▫️ ‘His talks with President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping took place, during which, among other things, attention was paid to deepening military cooperation using all mechanisms of interaction,’ said Sergei Shoigu.
▫️ ‘Russia and China consider each other as priority partners on the world arena,’ stressed the Minister.
▫️ Sergei Shoigu expressed confidence that ‘today’s meeting will contribute to deepening ties between the defence ministries of the two countries and will serve to strengthen regional and global security.’
▫️ Upon the arrival of the Russian Defence Minister for the talks with Zhang Youxia from the Chinese side, the Russian delegation was officially welcomed by an honour guard company and a band.
▫️ The meeting between Sergei Shoigu and Zhang Youxia took place on the margins of the 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum, which is taking place in China.
▫️ Prior to the plenary session, the Russian Defence Minister actively communicated with his colleagues not only from the CIS and SCO countries, but also from other states. In particular, ‘on his feet’ he exchanged views with the heads of delegations from Belarus, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Laos, Mongolia, Myanmar, Vietnam, Nigeria and other countries.
Sergei Shoigu: productive talks on security issues with West are impossible without West’s revision of its line of ‘strategic defeat’ of Russia
▫️ The West’s line on inflicting a ‘strategic defeat’ on Russian Federation virtually nullifies the possibility of constructive discussions on security issues, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said, speaking at the 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum on Monday.
▫️ ‘Russia is open to discussing and resolving any security issues if this dialogue is honest, equal and based on mutual respect of the contracting parties. However, without the West reconsidering its destructive line, which envisages inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia, productive negotiations in this sphere are hardly possible,’ said Sergei Shoigu.
Sergei Shoigu: Russia is ready for realistic talks on Ukraine crisis settlement and co-existence with West
▫️’Russia remains ready for political talks on resolving the post-conflict situation in Ukraine and continuing to coexist with the West’, said Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.
▫️’Should the necessary conditions be created, we remain ready for realistic political discussions, both on the post-conflict settlement of the Ukrainian crisis and on the parameters of further coexistence with the West as a whole’,said Sergei Shoigu at the 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum on Monday.
▫️’It is important for global stability to ensure equal relations among the nuclear-weapon states that are permanent members of the UNSC’, said the Russian Defence Minister.
▫️’It is important to ensure equitable relations among all nuclear-weapon states – permanent members of the UN Security Council (UNSC), which have a special responsibility for maintaining peace and global stability’, he said.
▫️’The international security architecture needs to be renewed and made more sustainable in order to create a just, multipolar world order.
▫️This will require the combined efforts of all the countries concerned’, said the Russian Defence Minister.
🔹 Russian Defence Ministry
Posted by: Dubu | Oct 30 2023 19:46 utc | 182
Our source reports that Zelensky’s rating began to fall rapidly.
According to all forecasts: “It will be difficult to win, the monopoly is losing 100%, becoming a completely easily controlled puppet” – source.
The source further indicates that there are no military successes and possible defeats of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are approaching. The front line is frozen/frozen. The risk of a “black winter” in Ukraine, when everything will be shut down due to the energy crisis.
The specter of an economic crisis in Ukraine due to a reduction in Western credit lines, which will lead to a collapse of the national currency and hyperinflation. An obligation/promise to the IMF to raise tariffs in Ukraine by 100% in the spring of 2024.
An increase in negative sentiment in the army, as well as among the relatives of dead soldiers – the spirit of the military Maidan began to be felt in Kyiv.
The growth of corruption scandals, bickering between elites/redistribution, the growth of crime, the growth of problems with PTSD in the military, and there are a lot of such problems. If the election campaign begins, they will all come out into the public sphere and easily collapse the inflated Ze-rating.
Zelensky’s task is to postpone the elections by any means. The only problem is whether they will agree in Washington and what Vladimir Aleksandrovich will give them for this (portfolios and chairs in the Cabinet of Ministers in the OVA in state corporations and the security/judicial bloc).
There is a possibility that Ze may promise not to stand as a candidate for himself and his wife in future elections after the war.
Posted by: Down South | Oct 30 2023 19:59 utc | 183
Our source reports that Zelensky’s rating began to fall rapidly.
According to all forecasts: “It will be difficult to win, the monopoly is losing 100%, becoming a completely easily controlled puppet” – source.
The source further indicates that there are no military successes and possible defeats of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are approaching. The front line is frozen/frozen. The risk of a “black winter” in Ukraine, when everything will be shut down due to the energy crisis.
The specter of an economic crisis in Ukraine due to a reduction in Western credit lines, which will lead to a collapse of the national currency and hyperinflation. An obligation/promise to the IMF to raise tariffs in Ukraine by 100% in the spring of 2024.
An increase in negative sentiment in the army, as well as among the relatives of dead soldiers – the spirit of the military Maidan began to be felt in Kyiv.
The growth of corruption scandals, bickering between elites/redistribution, the growth of crime, the growth of problems with PTSD in the military, and there are a lot of such problems. If the election campaign begins, they will all come out into the public sphere and easily collapse the inflated Ze-rating.
Zelensky’s task is to postpone the elections by any means. The only problem is whether they will agree in Washington and what Vladimir Aleksandrovich will give them for this (portfolios and chairs in the Cabinet of Ministers in the OVA in state corporations and the security/judicial bloc).
There is a possibility that Ze may promise not to stand as a candidate for himself and his wife in future elections after the war.
Posted by: Down South | Oct 30 2023 19:59 utc | 184
Posted by: Boris Badenov | Oct 30 2023 19:16 utc | 89
Don’t know what you are trying to say Boris. As there is no MMT without a job guarentee. It is the key stone of the whole theory. It is the price anchor and stability. Gets rid of pump priming and interest rate targeting.
You should try reading the 30 year body of work. This will help just for starters. The starter.
https://neweconomicperspectives.org/mmt-scholarship
Then after reading all the links above read every post on Billy blog since the very beginning as the main course.
https://billmitchell.org/blog/
Then study this – Money and banking as the dessert. The assets and liabilities of the balance sheets.
https://neweconomicperspectives.org/money-banking
Then we will be both on the same page with the same level of understanding. Debate a million different things.
🙂
Understand why we were able to put this together below before anyone else on the planet.
How Russian Gas Is Paid For…
https://new-wayland.com/blog/how-russian-gas-is-paid-for/
Whilst everyone else was scratching their heads.
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Oct 30 2023 19:59 utc | 185
Posted by: Boris Badenov | Oct 30 2023 19:16 utc | 89
Don’t know what you are trying to say Boris. As there is no MMT without a job guarentee. It is the key stone of the whole theory. It is the price anchor and stability. Gets rid of pump priming and interest rate targeting.
You should try reading the 30 year body of work. This will help just for starters. The starter.
https://neweconomicperspectives.org/mmt-scholarship
Then after reading all the links above read every post on Billy blog since the very beginning as the main course.
https://billmitchell.org/blog/
Then study this – Money and banking as the dessert. The assets and liabilities of the balance sheets.
https://neweconomicperspectives.org/money-banking
Then we will be both on the same page with the same level of understanding. Debate a million different things.
🙂
Understand why we were able to put this together below before anyone else on the planet.
How Russian Gas Is Paid For…
https://new-wayland.com/blog/how-russian-gas-is-paid-for/
Whilst everyone else was scratching their heads.
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Oct 30 2023 19:59 utc | 186
Zashkvar Office, which dispersed the Time magazine article without reading it. There is only one piece of criticism there, our inside information is even confirmed that the military began to sabotage Zelensky’s orders, which in their opinion are of a situational political nature, but strategically cause long-term damage to the army.
Main points of the article:
– Zelensky has lost his “usual sparkle of optimism, sense of humor and tendency to liven up a meeting in the war room with jokes.”
– Ze believes that the West abandoned him.
– Ze intends to fight to the last. Although those around him are disappointed and confident that Ukraine is losing, the president does not want to hear it.
– the issue of a truce is a taboo topic in the president’s team.
– blackouts this winter will cause public dissatisfaction with the work of the authorities. Now all the blame lies with the Ukrainian government for not being prepared. In 2022, the OP shifted responsibility to the Russians, but now this will not be possible – society will not believe it.
– in winter there will be resignations in the army and government. They will look for scapegoats.
– sabotage in the army. In early October, the OP demanded an operation to liberate Gorlovka.
The answer from the military came in the form of a question: What? “There are no people, no weapons. Where are the weapons? Where is the artillery? Where are the recruits?”
Alarmingly.
Our sources from Zelensky’s circle say that any negative publication in top Western media greatly affects the emotional state of the President.
Lately, he has been unable to sleep at all and has begun to react aggressively to the opinions of Western advisers.
The only one who retains influence on Zelensky is Ermak, who always finds an explanation for the processes.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/20323
Posted by: Down South | Oct 30 2023 20:11 utc | 187
Zashkvar Office, which dispersed the Time magazine article without reading it. There is only one piece of criticism there, our inside information is even confirmed that the military began to sabotage Zelensky’s orders, which in their opinion are of a situational political nature, but strategically cause long-term damage to the army.
Main points of the article:
– Zelensky has lost his “usual sparkle of optimism, sense of humor and tendency to liven up a meeting in the war room with jokes.”
– Ze believes that the West abandoned him.
– Ze intends to fight to the last. Although those around him are disappointed and confident that Ukraine is losing, the president does not want to hear it.
– the issue of a truce is a taboo topic in the president’s team.
– blackouts this winter will cause public dissatisfaction with the work of the authorities. Now all the blame lies with the Ukrainian government for not being prepared. In 2022, the OP shifted responsibility to the Russians, but now this will not be possible – society will not believe it.
– in winter there will be resignations in the army and government. They will look for scapegoats.
– sabotage in the army. In early October, the OP demanded an operation to liberate Gorlovka.
The answer from the military came in the form of a question: What? “There are no people, no weapons. Where are the weapons? Where is the artillery? Where are the recruits?”
Alarmingly.
Our sources from Zelensky’s circle say that any negative publication in top Western media greatly affects the emotional state of the President.
Lately, he has been unable to sleep at all and has begun to react aggressively to the opinions of Western advisers.
The only one who retains influence on Zelensky is Ermak, who always finds an explanation for the processes.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/20323
Posted by: Down South | Oct 30 2023 20:11 utc | 188
Newbie @ 71
Use it or lose it?
Beat me to it. And, more succinct.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 30 2023 15:10 utc | 74
Thank you! May this be a cautionary tale on letting the enemy know they’re finished (that’s how global thermonuclear wars start as well)
Posted by: newbie | Oct 30 2023 20:31 utc | 189
Newbie @ 71
Use it or lose it?
Beat me to it. And, more succinct.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 30 2023 15:10 utc | 74
Thank you! May this be a cautionary tale on letting the enemy know they’re finished (that’s how global thermonuclear wars start as well)
Posted by: newbie | Oct 30 2023 20:31 utc | 190
I remember Dima said after the drone attack on Crimea (yesterday, or the day before) that you could expect another attack with more powerful aircraft, the drones were trying to suss out the Russian AD. The Ukies may have decided they better launch their SS missiles while they still have some SU-24’s left. At two per plane, that’s 4 jets to launch this salvo. Last time they launched 12(?) missiles. Possibly they have another aircraft that can carry these missiles now, but my understanding is that the only Soviet era aircraft that has been modified to carry them is the SU24.
Posted by: Mike R | Oct 30 2023 18:41 utc | 86
Usual western MIC talk, when you want you put an su-27 firing or whatever
Normally you have to pay licensing fees for anything to work….
Posted by: newbie | Oct 30 2023 20:32 utc | 191
I remember Dima said after the drone attack on Crimea (yesterday, or the day before) that you could expect another attack with more powerful aircraft, the drones were trying to suss out the Russian AD. The Ukies may have decided they better launch their SS missiles while they still have some SU-24’s left. At two per plane, that’s 4 jets to launch this salvo. Last time they launched 12(?) missiles. Possibly they have another aircraft that can carry these missiles now, but my understanding is that the only Soviet era aircraft that has been modified to carry them is the SU24.
Posted by: Mike R | Oct 30 2023 18:41 utc | 86
Usual western MIC talk, when you want you put an su-27 firing or whatever
Normally you have to pay licensing fees for anything to work….
Posted by: newbie | Oct 30 2023 20:32 utc | 192
Seems the near term, and perhaps longer term, trajectory of the SMO will be decided in Gaza and the ME. Who would have predicted this a year ago? The future twists and turns in unpredictable ways.
Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 30 2023 17:03 utc | 81
only if 07/10 was a birthday present, if it was then all hail the new 7D chess-master, but I’m inclined to say that this play was not RF’s
Posted by: newbie | Oct 30 2023 20:38 utc | 193
Seems the near term, and perhaps longer term, trajectory of the SMO will be decided in Gaza and the ME. Who would have predicted this a year ago? The future twists and turns in unpredictable ways.
Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 30 2023 17:03 utc | 81
only if 07/10 was a birthday present, if it was then all hail the new 7D chess-master, but I’m inclined to say that this play was not RF’s
Posted by: newbie | Oct 30 2023 20:38 utc | 194
Isn’t there also a pipeline through Bulgaria, the original SouthStream? I think there were still continued works on it despite Russia switching to Turkey. And I think there was something in recent days about Serbia and Hungary complaining about Bulgaria’s transit tax being too high.
Posted by: MiniMO | Oct 30 2023 8:45 utc | 57
When Bulgaria said ‘we’ve changed our minds and no’ to Southstream under heavy US pressure, the Turks said ‘yes please’. As it was part built, if you look at its route it is 2/3 across the Black Sea towards Bulgaria and does a sharp left heading south, it was completed as Turkstream. All work in Bulgaria stopped and the already bought sections of pipe were sold off. Whether Gazprom, thinking ahead, actually installed a T junction and valves there is unknown.
This left Serbia a bit high and dry but the Turks came to the rescue. Since there was no land pipeline up from the Turkish border all the way to Serbia the missing link was constructed. Hungary then did a very advantageous deal with the Russians and now uses the same pipeline. The pipeline capacity is sold out. But both are at the mercy of the Bulgarians for transit costs. But whatever Bulgaria charges it is going to be much cheaper than sourcing their gas somehow as LNG.
The situation will get much murkier if and when Ukraine shuts their pipelines on 31/12/23. If they can afford to piss off the EU by cutting critical gas supply to central/eastern EU countries in the middle of winter and walk away from $1B+ a year of transit fees.
Posted by: JohninMK | Oct 30 2023 20:46 utc | 195
Isn’t there also a pipeline through Bulgaria, the original SouthStream? I think there were still continued works on it despite Russia switching to Turkey. And I think there was something in recent days about Serbia and Hungary complaining about Bulgaria’s transit tax being too high.
Posted by: MiniMO | Oct 30 2023 8:45 utc | 57
When Bulgaria said ‘we’ve changed our minds and no’ to Southstream under heavy US pressure, the Turks said ‘yes please’. As it was part built, if you look at its route it is 2/3 across the Black Sea towards Bulgaria and does a sharp left heading south, it was completed as Turkstream. All work in Bulgaria stopped and the already bought sections of pipe were sold off. Whether Gazprom, thinking ahead, actually installed a T junction and valves there is unknown.
This left Serbia a bit high and dry but the Turks came to the rescue. Since there was no land pipeline up from the Turkish border all the way to Serbia the missing link was constructed. Hungary then did a very advantageous deal with the Russians and now uses the same pipeline. The pipeline capacity is sold out. But both are at the mercy of the Bulgarians for transit costs. But whatever Bulgaria charges it is going to be much cheaper than sourcing their gas somehow as LNG.
The situation will get much murkier if and when Ukraine shuts their pipelines on 31/12/23. If they can afford to piss off the EU by cutting critical gas supply to central/eastern EU countries in the middle of winter and walk away from $1B+ a year of transit fees.
Posted by: JohninMK | Oct 30 2023 20:46 utc | 196
Good interview from Neil Oliver with Douglas Macgregor:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7D5eO5Qg-U
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 30 2023 20:50 utc | 197
Good interview from Neil Oliver with Douglas Macgregor:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7D5eO5Qg-U
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 30 2023 20:50 utc | 198
pessimist @ 81 / newbie @ 97
Initially I thought it was a Russian Iranian Jedi move, but seeing how the USA first day had C130’s on the tarmac in Israel and how fast they assembled a fleet in the eastern Mediterranean that hasn’t been seen since WW2 in the Pacific, I realized it can’t be the case.
More confusion, chaos, unhinged violence, ever less gray ever more black and white, ever more absolutism and ever less diplomacy, and accelerating military escalation do not play into Russia or China’s favor, and is certainly not their style. If the shoe fits… they don’t call the USA the Empire of Chaos for nothing.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 30 2023 21:00 utc | 199
pessimist @ 81 / newbie @ 97
Initially I thought it was a Russian Iranian Jedi move, but seeing how the USA first day had C130’s on the tarmac in Israel and how fast they assembled a fleet in the eastern Mediterranean that hasn’t been seen since WW2 in the Pacific, I realized it can’t be the case.
More confusion, chaos, unhinged violence, ever less gray ever more black and white, ever more absolutism and ever less diplomacy, and accelerating military escalation do not play into Russia or China’s favor, and is certainly not their style. If the shoe fits… they don’t call the USA the Empire of Chaos for nothing.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 30 2023 21:00 utc | 200