“ukraine“ just declared that naftogaz wont continiue transit of russian gas by the end of 2024. No extension of contract.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Oct 29 2023 13:09 utc | 1

What distinguishes us Russians from the Ukrainians?
We Russians fight to the last bullet.
Our enemies fight to the last Ukrainian...

Grüße

Posted by: Oberbayer | Oct 29 2023 13:25 utc | 2

@ Justpassinby | Oct 29 2023 13:09 utc | 1

. . . which means that Hungary and Serbia, two of the Empire’s greatest annoyances, will be relying almost entirely on TurkStream. Oh, Turkey — annoyance no. 3!

Look for some tragic accident to befall TurkStream.

Posted by: malenkov | Oct 29 2023 13:39 utc | 3

Any news on Russian aviation ?

Another thread I mentioned simultaneous attacks by half a dozen su-25.

Most clobber lists now include aviation as helping stop AFU attacks or supporting RF ones.

This is a new thing and might mean AD is highly neutered.

Comments and or additional info welcome.

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 29 2023 13:39 utc | 4

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ War Map and the Situation on the Fronts for the Evening of 28 Oct 2023; pub. 00:05⚡️

👍 In the Yasynuvatsky district, near the village of #Spartak, the AFUshniks attacked a civilian car with a kamikaze drone. On his way home, the civilian's navigator started malfunctioning, which put him near the line of contact. The enemy targeted the car. The driver died on the spot, and his mother, who was in the car, miraculously survived. But not enough, even a few days later a corrective UAV was hovering over the scene of the tragedy to prevent Russian fighters from taking the man's body.

⚔️ Situation on the Fronts over the past Day

🔹#Svatovo - #Kremennaya Direction:

▪️ The Russian army continues to advance in the #Kupyansk area. There is fighting near #Sinkovka and #Kislovka. In addition, there is an advance in the area of #Makeyevka.
▪️Near #Torskoye and in the #Serebryanskoye forest without changes.

🔹#Donetsk Direction:

▪️ In the #Avdeyevka section, fighting continues in the area of the railway near #Steponoye (#Petrovskoye). In the area of the #Slagheap, our fighters are consolidating their positions, which allows them to increasingly work on enemy positions in the city itself. Raids by Russian FPV drones have been particularly successful. In addition, our fighters are gradually advancing south of #Avdeyevka and in the #Severnoye area.
▪️ In the #Maryinka sector, there are successes at #Novomikhaylovka.

🔹#Zaporozhye Direction:

▪️ In the #Orekhov section the AFU tried to break through our defence between #Kopani and #Rabotino, but ran into the firepower of the Russian army. On the #Vremyevka ledge, our fighters counterattacked west of #Novodonetskoye.

⚡️ The Russian Army worked on 404 military infrastructure in the #Dnepropetrovsk and #Odessa regions. Facilities in Krivoy Rog were under attack, as well as in the #Izmail district, where the enemy's port infrastructure is located.

Posted by: Down South | Oct 29 2023 13:52 utc | 5

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Here is the Wagners' invaluable experience in the Bakhmut meat grinder. The Russian armed forces, with the experience of the boys from the orchestra, destroy all observation posts, towers with dome cameras, electronic warfare and communication systems before attacking the city. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are deprived of sight and view of the battlefield from above. The video shows the southern outskirts of Avdeevka, through which the attack on the city will apparently take place.

-------------------------

🇷🇺🇺🇦 It is reported that Russian forces have destroyed a HIMARS missile system through instant counter-battery combat.

https://t.me/remylind21/10191
https://t.me/remylind21/10197

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 29 2023 14:00 utc | 6

The track to strengthen total mobilization continues, and the Office of the President decided that it is best to shift this responsibility to the Heads of military administrations.

No one cares about the fact that Ukraine has not declared war, which means there is no basis for general mobilization, the main thing is to intimidate people and show any paper, only a few will be sued anyway...

The Constitution of Ukraine has ceased to operate; it has been replaced by decrees of petty officials who are creating chaos. Losses at the front need to be filled, which means we need to intensify the capture of men.

Posted by: Down South | Oct 29 2023 14:15 utc | 7

Ukraine Weekly Update - may be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-940

Posted by: Robert Hamilton Camp | Oct 29 2023 14:34 utc | 8

Inventory Update: A total of 517 aircraft, 253 helicopters, 8,392 unmanned aerial vehicles, 441 anti-aircraft missile systems, 13,006 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,170 multiple rocket launchers, 6,902 field artillery and mortar guns, as well as 14,760 units of special military vehicles are now gone!

Posted by: AI | Oct 29 2023 15:06 utc | 9

From 2024, Ukrenergo intends to double tariffs for electricity transmission and dispatch. Experts are already pointing out that such a sharp rise in prices could lead to a collapse of the Ukrainian economy - not only businesses, but also ordinary citizens will suffer.

It is noteworthy that this year Ukrenergo has already significantly increased tariffs for its services: the tariff for electricity transmission - by 40% and the tariff for dispatching - by 54%. The next increase will lead to losses not only for “civilian” businesses that produce goods and provide services for wide consumption, but also creates a threat to the defense industry - many enterprises in the defense sector are very energy-intensive and, unable to withstand the tariff burden, will simply leave the race.

However, the new tariffs from Ukrenergo will hit not only businesses. Businesses will shift part of the costs, and a large part, onto the shoulders of consumers by raising prices for their goods. Thus, Ukrainians, 2/3 of whom are already actually below the poverty line, will have to empty their pockets even more. And don’t forget that Ukrainians will also face the announced increase in electricity tariffs after the end of the heating season.

Posted by: Down South | Oct 29 2023 15:16 utc | 10

10

More fruits of befriending Uncle Scam.

Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Oct 29 2023 15:22 utc | 11

Posted by: Robert Hamilton Camp | Oct 29 2023 14:34 utc | 8

Ukraine Weekly Update - may be useful to some

Thank you. I read it every week. Very informative and succint. But the slag heap will not be another Mamaev Kurgan. Ukies will not take it, lose it and re-take it like the Germans did with the famous hill overlooking the Volga.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Oct 29 2023 15:25 utc | 12

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Oct 29 2023 15:25 utc | 12

The comment was a little tongue in cheek really. The Russian forces are too strong for the sort of back and forward confrontation we had in Stalingrad. Glad you are enjoying the Update - thank you.

Posted by: Robert Hamilton Camp | Oct 29 2023 15:37 utc | 13

Posted by: AI | Oct 29 2023 15:06 utc | 9

Mark Sleboda wrote in January 2023:

The army that the Kiev regime started 2022 out with, was the second largest in Europe, after Russia according to Western military assessments, and included some 250,000 active duty troops, and a large arsenal of capable Soviet-legacy military hardware - 2,600 tanks, 14,000 armored vehicles, 3,000 artillery pieces, 500 multiple launch rocket systems, 90 ballistic missiles, nearly a thousand total air defense systems, over 300 military aircraft, and a large drone fleet. This army had been built up for eight years with NATO funding and training, and was dug into heavy fortifications and trenches constructed over the same period.

...

The Kiev regime’s second army cobbled together during the first half of 2022 by NATO states consisted of the tattered remnants of the first, as well as pretty much the entire remaining Soviet legacy arsenal of the former east Bloc countries that have since joined NATO, like Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Czech, Slovakia, etc.

...

There weapons were the best and most suitable logistically for Kiev regime troops because they already knew how to use and repair them, and had parts stocks for them as well. This included over 400 tanks, at least 300 infantry fighting vehicles, over a thousand APCs, dozens more combat aircraft – and all this was peppered with a hodgepodge of Western military gear including several hundred artillery pieces, including the M777s, over a hundred multiple launch rocket systems including the HIMARS, hundreds of drones, over 10,000 handheld Anti-tank guided missiles and anti-aircraft missiles, and more.

...

The Kiev regime claims that its waves of mobilization and mass forced conscription built up a million-man army. Thousands of them received NATO training and had all of NATO’s satellites, C4ISR, as well as Pentagon planning and wargaming provided at their disposal.

...

https://marksleboda.substack.com/p/ukraines-three-armies

I think it's safe to say that the initial AFU air force (around 300 fighters, bombers, transport aircraft, trainers etc.) and pretty much all Polish/Czech etc. externally provided aircraft are gone.

Not sure about anti-air systems, whether they had 1000 initially.

Ukraine had over 16000 AFVs and tanks in total so 3000 left, maybe?

Ukraine's initial MLRS systems have been twice rolled over, which means Nato has given them at least 500 more MLRS.

Ukraine's initial amount of artillery systems has been rolled over 2.3 times. Did Nato give Ukraine 3000 more artillery pieces? They might have. Nato has thrown the KITCHEN SINK into Ukraine, regardless of what they claim in public. They even stripped the US active army units, which was the final course of action.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 29 2023 15:41 utc | 14

I think it’s interesting that all the pro-Ukrainian OSINT sites seem to be closing down. Between that and Kirby recycling Spring 2022 talking points about Russia’s conscripts it sure seems like the Ukraine desk is being liquidated. No matter how many times Biden or Yellen claim the US can manage two wars at once, the truth is almost certainly that it cannot. An election year will make that even more difficult because foreign policy is always an extension of domestic politics in the US.

The next step is Ukrainian nationalists turning against their sponsors and lashing out at Europe.

Posted by: Lex | Oct 29 2023 16:01 utc | 15

Hi! Does anyone ever view videos from the Ukie site "hromadske"? They are obviously pro AFU and do some propaganda style editing but I think they are less propagandist than most of the rotating talking heads that Americans see on corporate cable news channels. Hromadske's videos show lives of AFU soldiers on the front lines and by reading between the lines and seeing things, a person can gain tidbits of real knowledge. One of the things a person sees in the hromadske videos is the age of the soldiers, the average age is much, much older than say the guys in my kid's U.S. Army platoon, there was a video from last fall, probably filmed in October, where the entire Ukie tank crew was 50+ years old. That doesn't exist in the U.S. Army, even with reserve elements.

Anyway, I watched 2-3 of hromadske's newer videos this week and I thought I'd share one of their newest ones featuring "big belly boy" (BBB) who is also over 50 years old. BBB talks smack early in the vid as he smokes numerous cigs, telling how their unit hears Russian troops short distances away "getting drunk and throwing grenades at each other". But later, down in what appears to be more hastily dug bunker in their trenches, BBB gets more serious and admits that half of his original platoon is dead. He also claims, perhaps in a bit of Slavic bravado, that he also had a serious abdominal wound and spent a good while in the hospital recovering. With his current belly fat pad, I sort of doubt the story but who really knows, some bigger, fatter guys are actually fairly tough and nimble.

Then BBB takes the viewer into some really dark corners and claims that the Russians have tortured and killed "ATO" guys (Azov "battalion" members?) in truly horrific ways, the first supposed witnessed by a guy's wife (who was also raped) and another where the ATO's guy's hand was cut off, cooked, and then the "Russians" made this guy eat his own hand. BBB says this all in a seemingly clear way. Perhaps an example of collective bullshit telling and believing until that the original teller ends up believing their own bullshit. Or just a case of mass psychosis the groups make up to explain away/give them will for revenge when they have endured so much physical and physiological carnage of living through what they are living through. BBB probably won't live through the war but it may not matter because his soul seems already dead to a certain degree... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqyJnPEudus

Posted by: DakotaRog | Oct 29 2023 16:03 utc | 16

Ah comrades, the steady beat of craven disinformation continues. Look, here comes the Trumpy Mike Johnson, a light for RF! He makes some trouble for those war monger internationalist Democrats! Lo! The GOP squawks about decoupling Ukraine funding and Israel bonus pay. The elements of the GOP base that are pro RF and the whole Bronze Age Mindset schtick, nod, go, "yeh huh, ya see!" Dugin etal preach, "Then, we have won!" (Yet again, oh, yet again. What a clever plan! Don't you see?). Then, after the morons go to watch football or whatever dazed distraction, the new speaker clarifies. Oh yes, maximum war support to win for Ukraine: Beat China down. But yes, decouple from Israel. Sure. Decouple away. Shummer gets to present a "clean" Israel bill to a standing O. The show. The kayfabe. Keep drawing RF in for what? The west literally can not believe how well they have pulled off this limited war. So ready to go big. All the factories tooled up and raring. Ramping up for years. The Trump theater decoupling from China. All preparing Old U.S. "irrational" theory. And why PRC prod, support, encourage RF? (They really did, remember? Remember? ...Oh, but for that "Olympic delay" thanks to Xi and Putin's grandiosity, Kyiv could well have fallen in weeks. But the bait and hope keep getting fed in. The west will change course, the leader will change. the materials and money will dry up. RF can not fathom the depth of the US economy alone, let alone with all the industrialized nations of the world. PRC nightmare? Why did they goad RF? All a multi generational NWO mind fuck on us all, friends. Free your mind, and your ass will follow. (pfunk) IDK if PRC is NWO. But, at this dire point, where empire pits all the players against themselves, we must transcend and revolutionize without relent. Who 'nuther level. A lot of love. and some fine rifles in skilled hands, no doubt, here and there. The love revolution to stop moron may be a hope. As for RF best move to keep Moscow and St Petersburg, legislate a reversal of Crimea and Ukraine "republics" annexation, withdraw from all occupied territories of Ukraine, Georgia, Transnitria, and join with the west in the containment of PRC hell state. If not, PRC will take east, and buy west in your fire sale. (ongoing). For those who love the Russian people, because, Dostoyevsky, Tolstoy, Kropotkin, etc... it has been agony to see the NWO AngloUS/German operation overthrow the lovely soviets and instal Lenin to end the war in the German east. The plan worked beyond imagining, and the Red Fascist menace took over all the years of progressive anarchist development and humanity. The international was hijacked by red fascist LeninStalin and then its creature Mao. All run and funded out of Harriman Wall St NWO gang. Facts. Control the dialectic. With lots of good intentions to mold society! Look at the growth and wonders! Just also old, dumb plans of 19th century people who understood little of planetary or physical science. But good intentions must abound, because somehow we are still here for all the mindfuckery. Have RF consume itself in Ukraine. Have Israel divide the Ottoman Empire, and then fight within itself. Look at the DNA tests Israel ran when all the Ethiopians came and "Jews" of a certain type got uppity that they might not be jews. So the big daily paper and universities did huge DNA work to identify some presumed "jewish marker genes" and they claimed they did and they claimed the study showed these Ethiopian jews were, in fact, of the twelve tribes! The most Jewish of all, though, as reported in that big daily and everywhere then, were the "Palestinians". Those who stayed. Those who survived thousands of years in the same place. Brothers and sisters. Family. Divide and conquer. The trauma programing of the jews. Then who made Hamas? Shin Bet and Mossad. To counter PLO. Israel divide the created nations of old Ottoman empire, Israel divide on itself. West profits hill awaiting disaster, for them. Russia dismantled. Oh yes! Getting better all the time. How far will the mandarin spread. Time to change tack. Or else. This is terrible. Or, relent, modernize, help contain PRC (and free them from nightmare state) and have vast prosperity in your core. Really terrible position. God speed and love! Stop all this, because, you know, nano science will free or kill us all soon enough.

Posted by: Aholioho | Oct 29 2023 16:15 utc | 17

Posted by: Lex | Oct 29 2023 16:01 utc | 15

What might happen is the following.

It's possible and even likely that Zelensky (or whoever US uses to replace him with) will never talk to Putin or any other Russian president again. And no further peace negotiations, or any sort of communication will be conducted, ever, between Ukraine or Russia.

If that happens, there's a pretty high chance Ukraine will keep existence as a paper entity in the western media, with Zelensky as the president of this paper entity, while in reality, most of the population has left to either Europe, or Russia. I think that paper entity will be a bag-holder for all debt owed to the west, or rather western corporations and banks who funder Ukraine during the war. Eventually, the EU and US recognize the paper entity Ukraine will pay none of the debts.

I also think that von der Leyen and the west recently talking about transferring "seized Russian assets to Ukraine" doesn't mean Ukraine (the paper entity) will see 1 cent of that money. rather, it means the "seized Russian assets" will be transferred to the international corporations and bondholders of Ukraine, and paper-Ukraine will be left out to hang.

That is why the only option for Ukraine is to get integrated into Poland. I mean, Lwow oblast, that is, and maybe part of Khmelnitsky oblast. The rest will be left to make whatever sort of arrangement they want with Russia.

And voilà, such was the fate of "allies of the US", no more Ukraine.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 29 2023 16:21 utc | 18

reply to 18

Sputnik talks about EU efforts to commit theft of Russian funds. They don't have a legal framework to steal as yet. What you say might give them what they need. The bondholders would claim they can't get paid because Russia wrecked Ukraine, hence, give us their funds.

Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 29 2023 16:30 utc | 19

Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 29 2023 16:30 utc | 19
That is nowhere near a legal framework, not that this will ever refrain west.

Only thing is, retaliating on any west founds that Russia can put her hands on, if any.

Posted by: Mario | Oct 29 2023 16:44 utc | 20

Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 29 2023 16:30 utc | 19

Russia will not accept euro's as payment for anything any more. EU can "seize Russian assets" but it's a one trick pony. They might use it to somehow pay off Ukraine's debt.

But there are no more trade ties between EUrope and Russia in the sense where Euro may be utilized as a payment currency. Russia doesn't accept euro anymore.

That also makes EU controlled Europe significantly more dependent on the US, who has increasingly dictated more the trade policies of EU. Most of the energy EU can import now goes through the US, and in US dollars.

US meanwhile does buy energy from the Middle East and India. Middle East exports energy in yuan (supposedly). I'm not sure any energy deals will be renewed using the US dollars any longer.

So US must import energy with Chinese yuans or Indian rupees, or other currencies. If they buy from China or India, it's ultimately Russian oil and gas. If they buy with the purpose of re-exporting to Europe, they are using yuans and rupees to import energy which they sell accepting dollars from Europe.

If they buy from the Middle East (i.e. "not Russian oil or gas"), that means the Middle east supply gets drained to the west, and China and India will buy from Russia directly, anyway.

My point is the sanctions have had no effect other than Europe must now conduct its trade with the rest of the world merely through the US. EU is at the bottom of the trade chain and is more reliant on USD than ever before. Which is probably why Euro will continue weakening against the USD as well.

Also, how this relates to Ukraine? It means Ukraine has no more energy connection with Russia. Ukraine, is now in fact a direct peripheral extension of the EU, which has to be fully fed from and by the EU. EU is not capable of even sustaining its own productive economy, forget about Ukraine. EU also seems to be having problems importing LNG which is in tight supply. It can also happen at any moment that US suddenly decides to restrict LNG exports to Europe in favor of its own economy.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 29 2023 16:56 utc | 21

Posted by: Aholioho | Oct 29 2023 16:15 utc | 17

You ever hear of paragraphs?

Posted by: morongobill | Oct 29 2023 17:08 utc | 22

Ivan Utenkov's opinion WRT the Avdeeka operation..
https://t.me/ivan_utenkov13
By Ivan Utenkov (https://t.me/ivan_utenkov13)

However, Lukashenko himself also turned out to be unaware of the operation with the unexpected introduction of two armies into the battle.

Slavyangrad reports on the fate of Wagner....
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/71249
New information about the Wagner Group

P.S. Individuals who have transferred from the Wagner Group to the Ministry of Defense or volunteer detachments are not eligible for reenlistment [into the Wagner Group].

The war continues...

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 29 2023 17:23 utc | 23

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 29 2023 17:23 utc | 23

thanks for your comments and news updates. much appreciated!

Posted by: migueljose | Oct 29 2023 17:36 utc | 24

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 29 2023 16:56 utc | 21

All the eu managed with their diversification (was that the word they love spouting?) of energy suppliers is in the end just solidifying the us as their monopoly for supplies.

Ultimately, the us strangled one of its competitors, namely eu and the euro, to a chain. A while ago there was this rumor that the us wants to get the eu to pay with dollars for energy, not euros. Looks like that plan now starts to bear its fruits slowly. Eliminate one currency from energy trading to keep the dollar prime.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Oct 29 2023 17:42 utc | 25

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 29 2023 16:21 utc | 18

Very insightful comments and speculation as usual unimperator. So, the paper Ukraine is maybe being set up like an off shore account for scams and laundering?

Posted by: migueljose | Oct 29 2023 17:49 utc | 26

Eighthman | Oct 29 2023 16:30 utc | 19
*** Sputnik talks about EU efforts to commit theft of Russian funds. They don't have a legal framework to steal as yet. What you say might give them what they need. The bondholders would claim they can't get paid because Russia wrecked Ukraine, hence, give us their funds.***

Why are the neoliberal traitors who facilitated the theft of Russia's funds in the first place still alive and in office? Likewise the Oligarchs and other Atlanticist fifth-columnists...

Posted by: Cynic | Oct 29 2023 18:26 utc | 27

The next step is Ukrainian nationalists turning against their sponsors and lashing out at Europe.

Lex | Oct 29 2023 16:01 utc | 15

Germany in recent days:
- very hastily, tightening of controls on eastern border
- fake 'bomb threats' against public institutions, some of which refer to Hamas/ Gaza
So whatever happens, it will be blamed on 'Hamas supporters', even if signs point to Ukronazis.

My point is the sanctions have had no effect other than Europe must now conduct its trade with the rest of the world merely through the US. EU is at the bottom of the trade chain and is more reliant on USD than ever before. Which is probably why Euro will continue weakening against the USD as well.

unimperator | Oct 29 2023 16:56 utc | 21
Justpassinby | Oct 29 2023 17:42 utc | 25

Simpler reasoning to reach same conclusion: With no more pipeline oil & gas, EUrope depends on energy imports by ship - via sea lanes controlled by US/UK navy. The precise opposite of 'diversification' (which is what EU had until 2021). nb, whether LNG is from US, Qatar, Nigeria etc doesn't matter.

EU/ Eurozone have huge export surplus. As long as Europeans save in Euros, no problems for the currency. Once they lose confidence & switch to $, look out. Euro devaluation would actually be good for economy, but bad for consumers - real wages & thus internal consumption would decline. This explains ECB rate policy - can't allow interest rate divergence from USD/GBP.

(had to redo the comment bc first time it disappeared, sorry if somewhat brut)

Posted by: smuks | Oct 29 2023 20:26 utc | 28

Avdeyevka military question:

On the older thread, it was speculated that AFU might give up southern parts of the city.
Wouldn't that be quite suicidal from a military perspective? From my amateurish understanding, the outer perimeter of the city is heavily fortified - if you give up part of that 'ring', wouldn't that leave your entire defence highly vulnerable?

Posted by: smuks | Oct 29 2023 20:31 utc | 29

"Sputnik talks about EU efforts to commit theft of Russian funds. They don't have a legal framework to steal as yet. What you say might give them what they need. The bondholders would claim they can't get paid because Russia wrecked Ukraine, hence, give us their funds."

Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 29 2023 16:30 utc | 19

Which will probably be in foreign currency as it is funds Russia got for for exporting. Then hoarded at the ECB and other foreign central banks.

Export-led nations have to constantly provide liquidity into the rest of the world to allow others to buy their goods. Otherwise the rest of the world runs out of the particular money that is needed for the export transaction to complete and the export never happens (UK buyers buy Chinese goods with GBP, but Chinese workers are paid in Yuan. The relative shortage of Yuan due to the export differential has to be provided by the Chinese or Chinese goods become, in absurdum, infinitely expensive).

So with these funds being in Euro's and probably £'s and Yen and $'s etc. Or Eurobonds, gilts, Japanese bonds and US treasuries etc. The only reason they are trying to steal them is for 2 reasons.

1) Saves the political stink of having to keep telling their own voters how much money they are creating from thin air to fund Ukraine and then lying and calling it tax payers money. The truth will come out as people's taxes don't rise.

2) If they steal Russian foreign currency then Ukraine will own that amount to them even after using it to buy more weapons from it. The thieves will earn twice from the funds stolen. Firstly by buying the weapons and second by paying it back.

That's how the EU gangsters in Brussels operate. As their voters wave flags and sing ode to joy. Brainwashed out of their minds.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Oct 29 2023 20:59 utc | 30

It seems Russia is unable to stop Ukrainians who are attacking via Dnieper.
Ukrainians are simply ready to die for their cause. no matter how stupid it may be.

Posted by: zorge | Oct 29 2023 21:06 utc | 31

Posted by: smuks | Oct 29 2023 20:31 utc | 29

I think the Zelenskyy regime has run into the stumbling block that while its tried and true best soldiers are still willing to fight and kill Russians, they are not at all enthusiastic about staying in place and knowingly serving themself up as sacrificial lambs, so as to buy the Zelenskyy regime more time and/or to allow it to save face.

If you're defending a fortified spot with lots of ammo, supplies, and fellow soldiers, that's one thing. If half the guys and most of the ammo get pulled away, and you're told to "give 'em hell!", then the writing is on the wall.

If your troops are unwilling to get ground down so as to slow an advance, then you have to wihdraw to a defendible position. And since Russia is by now very well known to take prisoners and threat them well, AFU soldiers that get used as expendible pawns see themself as having a choice. AFU commanders could be wary of having surrenders starting to get popular, as that could spread like wildfire.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 29 2023 21:08 utc | 32

Posted by: zorge | Oct 29 2023 21:06 utc | 31

no stopping means

running back

mortars and grenades

advance

repeat

Posted by: Macpott | Oct 29 2023 21:32 utc | 33

Re: Posted by: Justpassinby | Oct 29 2023 13:09 utc | 1

“ukraine“ just declared that naftogaz wont continiue transit of russian gas by the end of 2024. No extension of contract.

Very interesting stuff.

Well, there we have it - if Russia wants to continue to stick to contracts supplying gas to their friends in Hungary (& Slovakia?!?) - they need to make significant gains - TERRITORIAL GAINS over the next year and reach the Hungarian & Slovakian borders.

If the Russians can’t reach Hungary & Slovakia they will likely forfeit these contracts because the transit will be turned off - and don’t tell me this is a war of attrition - if you don’t take the territory you don’t own it.

Posted by: Julian | Oct 29 2023 22:53 utc | 34

Ukraine Weekly Update - may be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-940

Posted by: Robert Hamilton Camp | Oct 29 2023 14:34 utc | 8

Great update. Thanks!

Posted by: Simon | Oct 29 2023 22:55 utc | 35

Re: Posted by: malenkov | Oct 29 2023 13:39 utc | 3

Look for some tragic accident to befall TurkStream.
.

No - it doesn’t mean relying on Turkey at all.

The end of 2024 is 14 months away - it means Hungary & Serbia are relying on the mighty Russian military to ”get the job done” and roll up to the Hungarian border by the end of 2024.

Given all the talk around here that Ukraine is on the brink of imminent collapse in 2023 - this should be an absolute piece of cake - no excuses.

Posted by: Julian | Oct 29 2023 23:08 utc | 36

I think “ukraines“ decision regarding the gas transit could be to get russia into zugzwang, precisely because of the hungary/serbia/slovakia issue that the eu/nato faces.

They want to get those countries back on track via blackmail, and as russia is not in a hurry, this will create problems for those that still get russian energy. After that is done, turkstream/bluestream will get the nordstram treatment i think.

Once all the dependancies on russian energy is gone, they can sell war much easier. Thats why nato/eu are so hellbent to cancel everything russian i believe.

No trade, no relations, nato aggression easy to sell to the eu sheeple.

They throw every old weaponsystem into ukraine to drain russia, and slowly build their eastern flank with personel and material. Germany sends some thousand troops into lithuania (how fitting, to the country that holds annual nazi parades), uk sends jets somewhere, finland and the rumored 200 planes, and so on.

From my laymans perspective this all reeks of preparation for the next big one.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Oct 29 2023 23:09 utc | 37

@ Justpassinby | Oct 29 2023 23:09 utc | 37

Only thing is: What’s left for the ”big one” against Russki “orcs”? All I see are F 35s, nukes, and undertrained soldiers who might feel secure in their pronouns.

Posted by: malenkov | Oct 29 2023 23:15 utc | 38

The Ukraine project is finished. Hamas' 7th Oct move, by design or default has been the final nail for NATO'S Eastern front.
The US is hastily getting prepared to open a new front to take out Iran and possibly Syria too, in order to save Izzy, it's ME project.
NATO has significantly build up its naval and air defense forces.
Whether Russian air and naval assets will targeted is the question.
Hungary may be obligated to move militarily against Ukraine to protect its gas transit as an act of war. The cracks in NATO is wider than MSM portrays. Just look at Turkey kicking the US donkey while it's down. Turkey knows its Tuckstream and gas hub projects are on NATO's chopping block.

Posted by: Suresh | Oct 29 2023 23:33 utc | 39

Suresh | Oct 29 2023 23:33 utc | 39
**** Hungary may be obligated to move militarily against Ukraine to protect its gas transit as an act of war. ***

Don't have enough troops and firepower for that, else they might already have threatened to intervene on behalf of the Kiev-oppressed Hungarian area in western Ukraine.

Posted by: Cynic | Oct 29 2023 23:45 utc | 40

@ Cynic | Oct 29 2023 23:45 utc | 40

Yup. I don’t think Hungary is in a position to do anything, but Turkey had better be concerned about the fate of TurkStream.

Posted by: malenkov | Oct 29 2023 23:48 utc | 41

As Ukraine aid fails the dirty tricks will increase. Moldova, Turkey (Turkstream), pressure on Hungary and Slovakia, Georgia. The CIA trained Ukrainian proxies will get to work overtime...

Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 30 2023 1:04 utc | 42

and don’t tell me this is a war of attrition - if you don’t take the territory you don’t own it.
Posted by: Julian | Oct 29 2023 22:53 utc | 34

So after all this time and the fact it's been repeatedly stated you still have no idea what the purpose of the SMO is?

Posted by: Screwdriver | Oct 30 2023 1:15 utc | 43

@ Screwdriver | Oct 30 2023 1:15 utc | 43 trying to talk some sense into our barflea Julian

Julian is exhibiting that adage about when you have a hammer, everything is a nail., rinse, repeat the senseless claim.

I suppose if it pays the bills and if you lost your morals somewhere......

Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 30 2023 1:32 utc | 44

the artillery losses of the Ukes matches the loss of Ukes airforce.

Is it the same reason, the new rooskie AWACS that can now see artillery fires. Same time frame, same jump in kill rates, same AWACS instant targeting?

Posted by: Joe Below | Oct 30 2023 2:15 utc | 45

by Julian | Oct 29 2023 22:53 utc | 34

and don’t tell me this is a war of attrition.

It is not a war. It is a military-technical operation, done on the cheap, with very little front-line soldiers, lot more FPVs and long range stand-off weapons Let us not forget 500k trainees, rotating in or out, learning, while combat testing various stuff. For RF the Ukraine is not an issue and the effort invested is not even close to what would war be like. That why it seems equalized or sometimes stale.
RF is focusing its main effort to counter NATO/US, and that process is not looking good for the NATO/US ground and air forces.
Again, the war with Russia looks very different.
It is all Russian land anyway, but the one that Russia is not craving for.
Two things are the fact, that Russia is not in the business of a land conquest, and Russia will always come after their money.

Posted by: whirlX | Oct 30 2023 3:28 utc | 46

I watched a recent Ukrainian film called "The Line" on Amazon that some might find of interest. A mafia drama set on the Ukrainian Slovak border at the the time of the Slovak accession to the EU. Gives a sense of the conditions along the Ukrainian EU borders - corruption and violence amidst/bred by relative poverty. Doubt much has changed. Of course national borders always have some of this character, but I suspect the Ukrainian borders are a textbook case. A lot of extra money to be made with the conscription avoiders, weapons, and aid goods.

Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 30 2023 4:48 utc | 47

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🔎 On the Similarities for the AFU between Battle for #Bakhmut and the Situation in #Avdeyevka⚡️

❗️The AFU Position is deteriorating and the options for action become fewer.

🔹How did Events Develop?

▪️At the first stage of the operation, the AFU failed to disrupt the execution of the Russian plan, in particular, to identify and hit places of troop staging, to prevent the advance of mechanised columns, etc.

▪️Apparently, at the start of active operations, the relationship between part of the AFU forces was disrupted and the interconnected fire system was partially paralysed. In particular, this manifested itself in a gradually weakening counterbattery fight. Currently, the situation does not change. The AFU positions and rear areas are under constant shelling. The response of the AFU is limited.

▪️A significant part of the AFU's artillery and air defences were partially destroyed by strikes during the initial operation phase, and the surviving ones are suppressed on a regular basis. This allowed the Russian Army to use all types of artillery, as well as bomber and army aviation, including attack helicopters, for strikes.

🔹What is the Main Difficulty for the AFU?

▪️The city garrison receives ammo and other supplies via the #Berdychi - #Petrovskoye - #Semyonovka area and the #Orlovka - #Lastochkino line. The logistics system partially resembles the scheme used by the AFU during the defence of #Bakhmut. The transport and logistics systems in both cases relies on a road network clearly visible to Russian troops. Most of the routes are unpaved, the use of which for active transport in the autumn-winter period will be difficult and slow down the supply.

▪️It is noteworthy that in early October the AFU tried to move mechanised forces from the #Zaporozhye direction towards #Donetsk. In particular, Leopard 2 tanks, M2 Bradley IFVs and M113 APCs of the 47th Mechanized Brigade were spotted there. They are now assumed to be northwest of the city, but are not being sent into combat for security reasons.

🔹What is the Situation Now?

▪️The AFU now face active fights in the northern #Avdeyevka section, at #Slagheap and close to the railway in the area of #Koksokhim. The distance between the northern and southern sections has already been reduced to 7 km in a straight line. If this trend continues, the city garrisons and the troops in the areas of #Stepovoye, #Orlovka, #Severnoye and #Avdeyevka will begin to face problems with evacuating the wounded and supplying them in the same way as they did in #Bakhmut. It is unlikely that mosquito logistics using pickups will help where the density of Russian artillery fire is maximum.

▪️No massive inflow of fresh AFU forces into the area has been recorded so far, nor has there been any mass use of aircraft, AFVs or artillery. Some AFU troops are in the semicircle, holding fortified positions, but at the moment they are rather isolated from the active battle than actively participating in it.

❗️It is important to understand that the AFU does not have the initiative at #Avdeyevka at the moment and is in passive defence. This may be due both to the lack of forces in the area and the impossibility of transferring significant reinforcements to threatened areas, and to the lack of clear objectives by the command. In simple terms, the AFU command presumably has no consensus on whether the defence of the city should be continued or if they should be withdrawn to more advantageous positions.

📌 Given that #Ukraine's political leadership prefers to cling on territory at any cost and tends to ignore the military's advice, we can assume that a voluntary withdrawal from #Avdeyevka is unlikely. However, the defence of this area may become much more difficult for the AFU than in #Mariupol or #Bakhmut.

Posted by: Down South | Oct 30 2023 6:28 utc | 48

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Military Expert Boris Rozhin on the SMO #Highlights in the Territory of the Former Ukraine by 22:08 Moscow Time for 29 October 2023⚡️

🔹1. #Zaporozhye Direction:
In the area of #Pyatikhatki - no changes.
In the area of #Rabotino and #Verbovoye during the day several attacks of the enemy were repelled, which did not achieve success and suffered significant losses in men and equipment.
The AFU units are being rotated, as the shattered units are losing their offensive potential.

🔹2. #Vremyevka Ledge:
▪️The situation is generally unchanged. Positional battles are ongoing.
▪️Our troops are probing for opportunities to improve positions north of #Priyutnoye and near #Novomayorskoye. Also the processing of #Urozhaynoye continues.

🔹3.#Ugledar:
▪️Our troops are attacking at #Novomikhaylovka, there are some tactical advances in our favour. But it is too early to talk about taking #Novomikhaylovka.
▪️The enemy has a powerful fortification there, covering the eastern flank of the #Ugledar grouping. It will be quite difficult to break through.
▪️In the area of #Maryinka - no significant changes.

🔹4. #Avdeyevka:
▪️Positional fighting continues north and south of the city. Movements are still of an insignificant nature.
▪️The RF Armed Forces have shifted their focus to fire damage to enemy positions in a number of areas in an effort to ensure the prerequisites for future strikes and reduce losses in offensive actions.
▪️The enemy is moving reinforcements to #Avdeyevka.
▪️It is too early to talk about encircling the city.
▪️The supply of the AFU through #Orlovka continues.
▪️According to a number of reports, the enemy has withdrawn part of the headquarters structures from the #Avdeyevka pocket.

🔹5. #Artyomovsk:
▪️No significant changes north of the city.
▪️Positional fighting near #Vasyukovka and Orekhovo-Vasilyevka.
▪️To the south continued fighting on the #Kleshcheyevka - #Andreyevka- #Kurdyumovka line.
▪️The enemy could not break into our defence, while continuing to suffer serious losses.
▪️Of course, we are not talking about a rush bypassing #Artyomovsk from the south.

🔹6.#Svatovo - #Kupyansk:
▪️The RF Armed Forces continue to hold the initiative, but the enemy, using transferred reinforcements, launches attacks in an attempt to extinguish it. This has so far led to a slowdown in our movement east of #Oskol, but the key question is whether the enemy will be able to hold the front after exhausting the transferred reserves, which were also withdrawn from the #Zaporozhye direction.

Posted by: Down South | Oct 30 2023 6:29 utc | 49

🇮🇱🇷🇺🇺🇦🖇 Ukrainian CIPSO has managed to spark anti-Israeli protests in Dagestan

For the last two days, a video from the Dagestan Khasavyurt has been circulating on the Internet: young people are looking for Jews in the local Flamingo hotel that were supposed to have come from Israel

🔻It would seem, where did the Jews come from in Khasavyurt and what was all this all about?

▪️Information about the Israelis in the hotel was planted by the administrators of the well-known channel Morning Dagestan (part of the network of Ukrainian CIPsO)

▪️Ukrainian hirelings called for solidarity with the people of Palestine and riots. As “proof”- a screenshot of anonymous correspondence of certain persons on WhatsApp without any adequate information was provided

📌Last year, the channel’s editors actively incited protest sentiments in Dagestan against the backdrop of the partial mobilization announced in the Russian Federation. The resource includes the network of fugitive ex-deputy Ilya Ponomarev. And judging by the fact that the search for Jews also began in Karachay-Cherkessia, the number of resources controlled by Ukrainians has only grown

It is surprising that no one was embarrassed by the open incitement to block the federal highway on a flimsy pretext. No one was surprised by the ridiculous use of Islamic rhetoric by administrators in the spirit of “give more TAKFIR” along with other terminology every word, which is more likely to be used by comic characters than by serious, spiritualized Muslims

❗️However, it still worked. The young people were unable to find a single Jew in the Flamingo Hotel in Dagestan, as in Karachay-Cherkessia. But the Ukrainian CIPsO managed to create a false picture, for some time increase pressure on Russian law enforcement agencies and at the same time make some Russians look like fools

🔻By the way, back in 2013 they wrote that in the Russian Southern Federal District and North Caucasian Federal District combined there are only about 3.5 thousand Jews left, and their outflow continues. How many of them are left there today? A couple hundred? And it’s certainly unlikely that all of them are hiding in Khasavyurt

◾ Ilya Ponomaryov, ex Russian deputy now working as a foreign agent in the West has openly admitted that he works on telegram to create problems in Dagestan and that the protests have been coordinated mostly by his Telegram channel "Morning Dagestan"

- Ponomaryov leader figure of the Liberal pro Western opposition in Russia fled the country in February 2022 and has since worked presumably for American government agencies in the propaganda field.

Yesterday TsIPSO carried out an effective cognitive operation in Dagestan, for this they used their network of telegram channels in Russia. The cognitive dissonance of the whole situation lies in the fact that the instruments dispersing anti-Jewish sentiments in Dagestan belong to the Jew Ilya Ponomarev.

The Financial Times: Violence in Dagestan is fueled by rumors that refugees from Israel are being resettled in the Muslim-majority region. Some of these rumors were apparently inflated by a Telegram channel with 50 thousand subscribers. This channel is associated with former Russian politician Ilya Ponomarev. He now lives in Kyiv, opposes the Kremlin and claims to be coordinating a group of Russians fighting against Moscow in Ukraine. Of course, Ponomarev said that he does not control the channel, they all belong to the Ukrainian special services.

They beautifully used the arrival of a plane from Israel for mass protests in the region, they even promoted the narrative of child killers, I wonder if the Mossad will then determine who owns the channel?

Posted by: Down South | Oct 30 2023 6:36 utc | 50

"If they buy with the purpose of re-exporting to Europe, they are using yuans and rupees to import energy which they sell accepting dollars from Europe."

That's always the case in any international transaction. Every production firm has to pay their costs in the local currency. In the chain from end consumer to start producer, the end consumer pays in the currency they have and the producing workers receives the currency they want to hold. If that doesn't happen, then neither does the production or the trade and everybody loses.

The finance industry exists to *create* the necessary moneys all down the chain - and charge a fee for doing so.

Moving the exchange step between jurisdictions makes very little difference to the entire process. The process of blocking a direct exchange into roubles, just means there's an exchange via some other intermediary - which simply adds the price of their cut to the trade.

US dollars are mostly an intermediary exchange currency that just happen to be cheap and convenient for most of the planet. As soon as they stop being cheap and convenient they'll be cut out of the middle and the intermediation fees will go elsewhere.

Posted by: The Accountant | Oct 30 2023 6:55 utc | 51

Posted by: Simon | Oct 29 2023 22:55 utc | 35

Thanks Simon. Glad yo enjoyed the Update.

Posted by: Robert Hamilton Camp | Oct 30 2023 7:16 utc | 52

Posted by: Screwdriver | Oct 30 2023 1:15 utc | 43

“So after all this time and the fact it's been repeatedly stated you still have no idea what the purpose of the SMO is?”

Like with all the politicians, east, west, south, north and all the points in between, don’t listen what the mouth says, look what the hand does.

What did russia do as soon as possible? Grab the 4 oblast and annex them asap.
One could even say that they did before it was even possible, since they didn’t even control the entirety of those oblasts. Still don’t btw. Probably never will.

Posted by: Membrum Virile | Oct 30 2023 7:42 utc | 53

If your troops are unwilling to get ground down so as to slow an advance, then you have to wihdraw to a defendible position. And since Russia is by now very well known to take prisoners and threat them well, AFU soldiers that get used as expendible pawns see themself as having a choice. AFU commanders could be wary of having surrenders starting to get popular, as that could spread like wildfire.

Babel-17 | Oct 29 2023 21:08 utc | 32

Hmm. Where is the next line of defence, if Avdeyevka is abandoned?
Someone suggested Kramatorsk, but I'm not convinced there's real fortifications there.

Doesn't really answer my question re. giving up southern parts of Avdeyevka though.
(Also, how do you surrender from inside a fortified ring without being shot from behind?)

Well, there we have it - if Russia wants to continue to stick to contracts supplying gas to their friends in Hungary (& Slovakia?!?) - they need to make significant gains - TERRITORIAL GAINS over the next year and reach the Hungarian & Slovakian borders.

Posted by: Julian | Oct 29 2023 22:53 utc | 34

Nobody expects Russian forces to occupy western Ukraine. A new regime in Kiev might negotiate new transit contracts. If not...yeah, Turkey will become even more important as transit hub. Whether also for Serbia & Hungary, dunno - possible.

Posted by: smuks | Oct 30 2023 7:43 utc | 54

@Joe Below | Oct 30 2023 2:15 utc | 45

the artillery losses of the Ukes matches the loss of Ukes airforce.

Is it the same reason, the new rooskie AWACS that can now see artillery fires. Same time frame, same jump in kill rates, same AWACS instant targeting?

Good question, while the himar launchers are getting instantly targeted probably due to the AWACS and much more efficient communication mechanisms between the AWACS and the ground artillery, shells are a different story. It must be ground based counter battery detectors (radar and sound based) which talk quickly to the artillery which accounts for the artillery losses. Shells are just so much smaller and more numerous than the himars rockets, and their flight time so much quicker and shorter, that it makes more sense for ground based mechanisms being used to counter them than AWACS. The rooskies have probably been able to reduce their counter battery fire response times down from minutes to seconds due to quicker communication between the detectors and the artillery.

Posted by: gT | Oct 30 2023 8:28 utc | 55

Political scientist Alexei Zhivov especially for the channel Soroсa-Beloboсa

The Ukrainian side places greater emphasis on company level achievements, artillery and drones. However, it is highly dependent on the volume and quality of Western supplies. Communications with allies are a pronounced weak point of the enemy. They can be brought down by counter-threats and the destruction of communications themselves, which is already partially being done.

We have an incomparably greater mobilization potential. Our industry and scientific base make it possible to deploy a much more powerful military machine than today. And so far we have not even resorted to the most effective tool - directed purchases of raw materials at state prices.

We were seriously crippled by the lack of high-precision weapons - aerial bombs, shells, long-range MLRS, large missiles. But our military-political leadership is already thinking in terms of large modern technology, when it is saturated, the front will change beyond recognition. This is exactly what our military-industrial complex is focusing on now. In the foreseeable future, the Armed Forces of Russian Federation will have high-altitude attack UAVs, new automated artillery systems, a Coalition self-propelled gun with a long-range projectile, modernized armored vehicles, high-precision long-range MLRS of Russian and foreign production, a river fleet, roaming automatic mortars and much more. The time frame for the implementation of all these plans is from one to two years.

We were expecting a big offensive this fall, but there is still a shortage of shots and competencies. In the near future we can predict the capture of Avdeevka, or Kupyansk, or, if you are very lucky, Orekhov. I wouldn't count on more. Although there is little hope that before the elections the army will try to give the president a big victory like the liberation of Kherson. But in an operation of this scale, there are just as many risks as there are benefits. The probability is below average.

After the elections, I would expect many serious changes in the defense department and big changes at the front. But they won't be fast. So we can confidently plan for another year or two of the special military operation and the growth of our military economy. And finally, it is worth saying that to carry out an operation in Kharkov or Odessa, our troops need from 500 thousand to 1 million soldiers.

It’s probably also worth defining the criteria for our victory. Russia must receive full rights to export sovereignty, full control over most post-Soviet republics, the complete dismantling of Ukrainianism as a military-political ideology and the re-establishment of world treaties that guarantee our security. Otherwise, war with NATO cannot be avoided.

Posted by: MiniMO | Oct 30 2023 8:42 utc | 56

". . . which means that Hungary and Serbia, two of the Empire’s greatest annoyances, will be relying almost entirely on TurkStream. Oh, Turkey — annoyance no. 3!

Look for some tragic accident to befall TurkStream.

Posted by: malenkov | Oct 29 2023 13:39 utc | 3"

Isn't there also a pipeline through Bulgaria, the original SouthStream? I think there were still continued works on it despite Russia switching to Turkey. And I think there was something in recent days about Serbia and Hungary complaining about Bulgaria's transit tax being too high.

Posted by: MiniMO | Oct 30 2023 8:45 utc | 57

Zaluzhny advocates defense and economy.

Zelensky needs to continue the offensive in order to maintain the message/illusion that the Ukrainian Armed Forces continues its creeping offensive.

The different approach of Ze and Za intensifies the quiet war between the military and the office. Even the Times writes about it.

The escalation will begin at the moment when it becomes clear to everyone that the offensive failed, due to the fact that Ze was carried away by the offensive, the Ukrainian Armed Forces began to lose positions and territories, since the defense was not prepared.

In the army, Zelensky’s rating is already 50/50.

https://t.me/legitimniy/16584

The Ukrainian counter-offensive is approaching its tragic ending - the so-called. The “Azov massacre” was too costly for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which suffered huge losses in equipment and manpower. At the same time, Ukraine, after an unsuccessful offensive, will no longer be able to repeat anything like this, and its strength is only fading, as is the faith of Kyiv’s Western partners.

Let us note that as a result of their entire summer counter-offensive, the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to recapture less than 300 square kilometers of territory. However, they did not occupy any strategic points.

True, there is now a lot of evidence that the Russian Armed Forces are seizing the initiative at the front. Particularly alarming information for Kyiv is coming from its eastern sector of the front, where the onslaught of Russian forces is especially strong.

Western military experts are confident that a positional war will gradually “burn out” the remaining reserves of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which will force Zelensky to choose between the loss of Kupyansk, Maryinka, Avdeevka or a mass retreat in the Azov area. Naturally, we are no longer talking about a counter-offensive; the maximum that the Ukrainian Armed Forces can do is try to impose oncoming battles along the entire front.

Posted by: Down South | Oct 30 2023 8:49 utc | 58

Apparently the Dagestan issue was caused by the TG channel "Utro Dagestan" (Morning Dagestan) spreading rumors of a plane with "Israeli settlers" flying into Dagestan to take the locals land. Surprisingly (or not) Utro Dagestan is a channel controlled from Kiev.

Russia might take refugees from Israel, but it's doubt they would settle in Dagestan regardless. They might also be actual refugees, fleeing from the ziocon regime.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 30 2023 9:38 utc | 59

The next step is Ukrainian nationalists turning against their sponsors and lashing out at Europe.

Posted by: Lex | Oct 29 2023 16:01 utc | 15

Agreed.

Eventually the Ukes will realize that they have been used as cannonfodder and their anger at US/UK/NATO/EU will be monumental

Posted by: canuck | Oct 30 2023 10:31 utc | 60

So after all this time and the fact it's been repeatedly stated you still have no idea what the purpose of the SMO is?

Re: Posted by: Screwdriver | Oct 30 2023 1:15 utc | 43

How did the failure to take territory in 2014 turn out?

It just gave Ukraine time to rearm and rebuild for the better part of a decade.

What about the mistakes made in 2013-14 don’t you get?

If you don’t take the territory you will merely have yet another war in 10–15 years.

In 2013 Russia “owned and controlled” 100% of Ukraine.

10 years later, in 2023, Russia “owns and controls” about 20-25% of Ukraine.

In 10 years Russia has gone backwards around 75-80% in terms of control of Ukraine.

It is a similar situation in Syria - which barely controls 50% of its territory whereas in 2011 it controlled 100%.

Please let me know how the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Artsakh that Russia froze for its ally Armenia in 1992 worked out?

Russia froze the conflict instead of finishing it - and then what happened? 30 years of nothing - and then what?

Perhaps you know.

Posted by: Julian | Oct 30 2023 10:37 utc | 61

Re: Posted by: smuks | Oct 30 2023 7:43 utc | 54

Nobody expects Russian forces to occupy western Ukraine. A new regime in Kiev might negotiate new transit contracts. If not...yeah, Turkey will become even more important as transit hub. Whether also for Serbia & Hungary, dunno - possible.

Not true - many around here claimed Russia would be in Lemberg/Lviv/Lvov 12 months ago so easily would they roll over the AFU - which obviously didn’t happen.

I never claimed that and I also don’t claim Russia needs to occupy ALL of Western Ukraine - but it would do well to occupy enough to create a land bridge to Hungary, Slovakia, Serbia and Non-NATO Austria & Switzerland.

Russia doesn’t need Lviv, Rivne & Lutsk and I don’t expect they will enter any of these three North-Western oblasts at any point.

Posted by: Julian | Oct 30 2023 11:51 utc | 62

I just thought I'd remind everyone that blogger Gonzalo Lira is still disappeared in the Ukraine penal system. He was supposed to have a trial, or perhaps 'trial' at the beginning of October and we have heard nothing since then.

Posted by: JulianJ | Oct 30 2023 12:14 utc | 63

@Julian | Oct 30 2023 11:51 utc | 62
There is absolutely no way they will even get out of Donbass with the current resources, number of soldiers and government of US butt kissers and abramoviches. The Gaza lifestyle won't end by their own military means, surely not these means. The one and only success is the reduction in the numbers of ukro nazi zombies but even that that is on the low side and won't solve any of their problems. Who needs soldiers when they can shoot apparently at least 10 missiles at the same time? After hundreds of planes shot down and hundreds of airports destroyed by actor Shoigu in a single week.
There was one good news, the Kherson general clown was fired a few days ago, so let's see what the new guy does.

Posted by: rk | Oct 30 2023 12:19 utc | 64

by Julian | Oct 30 2023 11:51 utc | 62

The only one thing is going to stop this skirmish faster, and that is possible liberation of Southern Odesa Oblast.
Having RF on the Northern Romanian border wins the Black Sea domination and then some more, while securing the Crimea.
That liberation will also get a pretty good connect to Transnistria, reaching in depth and at the nexus of NATO's overall stability and existence in the region.

What we see now and all the time is "eyes here please, while we do something else over there" a skillful Russian psy-op for the foreign media.

The rest of Moldova is never going to be a NATO land, as well as the smoldering leftovers of the Western Ukraine.

Posted by: whirlX | Oct 30 2023 12:28 utc | 65

65 comments on the Ukraine thread.

430 on the Israel-Hamas thread.

Zelenski is so screwed....

Posted by: Alexander P | Oct 30 2023 14:03 utc | 66

strana, Explosions were heard in Sevastopol. Russian Defense Ministry says eight Storm Shadow missiles attacked Crimea, 30 Oct

Yesterday's Military Summary sitrep did not see that coming.

Posted by: sln2002 | Oct 30 2023 14:44 utc | 67

Alexander P @ 66

65 comments on the Ukraine thread. 430 on the Israel-Hamas thread. Zelenski is so screwed....

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 30 2023 14:52 utc | 68

Alexander P | Oct 30 2023 14:03 utc | 66

if they depended on trollery to win, they are in trouble.

Posted by: Not Ewe | Oct 30 2023 14:53 utc | 69

"Ukrainian Resident Exposes Alarming Threat from Right Sector: No Help if Authorities Seize You"

A concerning video has surfaced wherein law enforcement officers, believed to be affiliated with the nationalist Right Sector, cautioned a Ukrainian resident that no assistance would be available if the authorities were to apprehend them. The footage shows the police displaying a seemingly lighthearted reaction to inquiries related to mobilization.

@ukr_leaks_eng

https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1718916574852059481

No one is taking any more responsibility of anything in Ukraine. The central government is operating on a mafia basis and the constitutional law has been dismantled. The government of Ukraine only now exists for PR purposes in the western media, aimed for westerners. It doesn't exist in Ukraine or for Ukrainians.

Ukraine is an example what could possibly happen in the west next - wild west where your survival is up to you and evading thugs from encounters which could cost you your life.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 30 2023 15:02 utc | 70

strana, Explosions were heard in Sevastopol. Russian Defense Ministry says eight Storm Shadow missiles attacked Crimea, 30 Oct

Yesterday's Military Summary sitrep did not see that coming.

Posted by: sln2002 | Oct 30 2023 14:44 utc | 67

Use it or lose it?

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 30 2023 15:02 utc | 71

sln2002 @ 67

strana, Explosions were heard in Sevastopol. Russian Defense Ministry says eight Storm Shadow missiles attacked Crimea, 30 Oct. Yesterday's Military Summary sitrep did not see that coming.

The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that Crimea was attacked by 8 Storm Shadow missiles. It is stated that they were all shot down. “Governor” of Sevastopol Mikhail Razvozzhaev reported that in Sevastopol one person was injured due to falling rocket debris.

Russian public pages wrote that at night there was also a missile attack on an air defense missile and anti-aircraft regiment near the village of Olenevka in the west of the peninsula, as a result of which 17 Russian servicemen were wounded. Later, the Ukrainian Armed Forces confirmed that tonight they hit a Russian air defense system on the western coast of Crimea.

I would think other than air defense systems most high value targets have been removed from Sevastopol, seems Ukraine has Storm Shadows to spare as terror weapons. $25.52 million to hit what exactly in Sevastopol? Wish I could beg up as much scratch as Zelensky:

"Google - How much does a Storm Shadow missile cost? A Storm Shadow missile costs about £2.54 million (US$3.19 million) per unit."

Not impossible NATO has decided the Storm Shadows are worthless crap and might as well use them up as gold plated diamond studded Buzz Bombs.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 30 2023 15:08 utc | 72

Alexander P | Oct 30 2023 14:03 utc | 66

Today we have day 614 of special op in ukraine.
And gaza vs Isr. we write day 23.

When we have day 614 in Israel vs Palastine nobody´ll find this country Isr. on a map...

Posted by: Oberbayer | Oct 30 2023 15:09 utc | 73

Newbie @ 71

Use it or lose it?

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 30 2023 15:10 utc | 74

John Helmer provides his unique insight...
https://johnhelmer.net/when-the-devil-drives-what-needs-come-first-the-gorilla-radio-podcast-answers/
A Moscow source confirms the US is the priority Russian target because the IDF cannot continue in Gaza as the US capabilities exhaust themselves. He believes that US over-exertion in the Middle East will accelerate the Russian military’s move on to the offensive on the Ukrainian battlefield, and shorten thereby that war. The public statements for mediation between the warring parties issued by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his ministry are not the full Russian story, the source believes. The first need in Lavrov’s mediation, he says, is between the General Staff and the Kremlin. The second priority is to let the Americans demonstrate their weakness across the region by conserving the Palestinians in place, deterring Egyptian and Jordanian concessions, and preventing a direct attack on Iran. “The real Russian position , not the public statements , ultimately comes down to what level of military cooperation the Ministry of Defense has with Teheran. The Syrian and Ukrainian wars have made this very deep. I expect the Foreign Ministry’s public line will change when the Palestinian casualties reach 20,000. As the official Israeli statements against the Russian government already make clear, they know what is going on behind the scenes. It’s not just the Caucasian Muslims now but most Russians feel there’s been enough crying support for Israel. Lavrov will catch up.”

“I would say the real work now in Moscow is on ensuring the Americans do not directly attack Iran. The rest is going to play out according to the General Staff’s road map Lavrov could and should have in front of him. Call it the long war for short.”

From a logistical point of view... given the limits on NATO war materiel production..

The enormous stocks sent to Israel, favoring stuff for an air campaign, should finally empty the cupboard...

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 30 2023 15:11 utc | 75

Not impossible NATO has decided the Storm Shadows are worthless crap and might as well use them up as gold plated diamond studded Buzz Bombs.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 30 2023 15:08 utc | 72

I think of it as a desperate attempt to show they can actually do some damage to the Russians. Maybe a need to change the subject from Occupied Palestine too.

Posted by: Bemildred | Oct 30 2023 15:14 utc | 76

@ Down South, §50:
"Dagestan" is a religiously defined entity.
The Adygh, Abkhaz, Cherkessk, Kabardin and Chechen republics are all defined linguistically (with Turkish minorities such as the Balkar and Karachai in most). They have become secular with national expression being through literature, music, dance and sport: religion has, thankfully withered but is still there.
Dagestan divides naturally into predominantly Avar, Tsez, Lak, Dargwa and Lezgian provinces with, again, Turks (such as the Nogai, Kumyks, etc.) scattered among them.
Perhaps the RF should give consideration to dissolving the Dagestan republic and follow the model of the Adygh, etc., republics. Five peaceful mini-nations (Avar, Tsez, Lak, Dargwa, Lezgian) would be calmer than the present Muslim-focussed entity.

Posted by: John Marks | Oct 30 2023 15:37 utc | 77

@ Justpassinby | Oct 29 2023 23:09 utc | 37

Only thing is: What’s left for the ”big one” against Russki “orcs”? All I see are F 35s, nukes, and undertrained soldiers who might feel secure in their pronouns.

Posted by: malenkov | Oct 29 2023 23:15 utc | 38

Tomahawk missiles, more and longer ranged ATACMS, allowing Ukrainian aviation to be based out of NATO countries, sheep-dipped NATO pilots, a "Polish Expeditionary Force", whether went in to "advise", to "secure western Ukraine and thereby free up Ukrainian troops for the front" or to directly participate, etc., etc..

Posted by: Feral Finster | Oct 30 2023 15:41 utc | 78

Well if you live in the US this is a must see movie

"Finding the money"

https://stephaniekelton.substack.com/p/finding-the-money-winning-awards

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Oct 30 2023 16:06 utc | 79

Zelenskyy's frustration boiling over, but his resolve to prevail remains unbroken – TIME

In an article about the situation with the Russo-Ukrainian war, Time columnist Simon Shuster writes with reference to anonymous interlocutors allegedly in the circle of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that he "feels betrayed by his Western allies" who "left him without the means to win the war, only the means to survive it". Despite this, the Ukrainian leader is not going to give up fighting and sign a truce with the occupiers, but his belief in the victory of Ukraine worries some of his aides, the article says.

Zelenskyy's last visit to Washington, where he addressed Congress and spoke with the country's leadership, did not yield the results he had hoped for, the author of the article claims.

"I asked one member of his circle how the President was feeling. The response came without a second’s hesitation: 'Angry'. The usual sparkle of his optimism, his sense of humor, his tendency to liven up a meeting in the war room with a bit of banter or a bawdy joke, none of that has survived into the second year of all-out war," Shuster writes.

According to one longtime member of the president's team, "now he walks in, gets the updates, gives the orders, and walks out."

Posted by: Dubu | Oct 30 2023 16:47 utc | 80

Seems the near term, and perhaps longer term, trajectory of the SMO will be decided in Gaza and the ME. Who would have predicted this a year ago? The future twists and turns in unpredictable ways.

Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 30 2023 17:03 utc | 81

MiniMO@56
Thanks for that. A very interesting perspective.

Posted by: bevin | Oct 30 2023 17:47 utc | 82

Posted by: Dubu | Oct 30 2023 16:47 utc | 80

Zelensky's usefulness is fully tied to how many people they can still garner up for mobilization in Ukraine. That is the only thing.

It will mean many people will yet get mobilized and die in vain, because as everyone knows, useless things tend to disappear.

Anyway, it does seem like Mr. Bhadrakumar said that the war in Ukraine is on autopilot and Russia seems to be watching whether things spill over on Syria.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 30 2023 18:11 utc | 83

It's hard not to hope that the Germans, or Americans, appoint someone named Steiner to head an effort to salvage the situation for the Zelenskyy regime.

YouTube might not yet allow Downfall parodies of Zelenskyy, but once Russia's tracked vehicles start rolling over frozen ground this winter, or hard ground next summer, and Zelenskyy's pronouncements become fully deranged, we will see videos of Hitler/Zelenskyy telling everyone in the bunker to chill out, Steiner was going to take care of things.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 30 2023 18:20 utc | 84

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 30 2023 18:11 utc | 83

Most Ukrainians are very poor and the rest have only one god, $ or €.
Surely many people will be very angry after the war, but if you offer them a few $ or €, most will choose the same people again.

Posted by: theo | Oct 30 2023 18:38 utc | 85

strana, Explosions were heard in Sevastopol. Russian Defense Ministry says eight Storm Shadow missiles attacked Crimea, 30 Oct

Yesterday's Military Summary sitrep did not see that coming.

Posted by: sln2002 | Oct 30 2023 14:44 utc | 67

Use it or lose it?

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 30 2023 15:02 utc | 71

I remember Dima said after the drone attack on Crimea (yesterday, or the day before) that you could expect another attack with more powerful aircraft, the drones were trying to suss out the Russian AD. The Ukies may have decided they better launch their SS missiles while they still have some SU-24's left. At two per plane, that's 4 jets to launch this salvo. Last time they launched 12(?) missiles. Possibly they have another aircraft that can carry these missiles now, but my understanding is that the only Soviet era aircraft that has been modified to carry them is the SU24.

Posted by: Mike R | Oct 30 2023 18:41 utc | 86

Southfront has a compilation of recent events.

About the Storm shadow attack, 8 were launched from 4 aircraft (1 Su-24, 3 Su-27). In addition 2 Neptune ASMs launched from Odessa region. Targeting was provided by 3 UAVs over the city.

RUAF claims all missiles and drones were shot down using Pantsir and S-400 and debris fell onto private property.

Additionally, one oil refinery in Krasnodar region was attacked. 35 drones intercepted approaching Crimea. Settlements on the Belgorod border area were shelled.

https://southfront.press/military-overview-of-situation-in-ukraine-on-october-28-30-2023-sides-are-in-wait-and-see-position/

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 30 2023 18:49 utc | 87

The Biden administration has a problem with its younger, most vocal, prospective voters. There are the "Jimmy Dore Democrats" who oppose America getting all those Ukrainians killed for no good reason, and also oppose the slaughter of innocent Palestinians, and Israel appropriating their land and leaving them to live in an open air prison.

Then there are the "BLM" Democrats, along with generic Muslim Democrats, who are generally very displeased with the Biden administration for being in thrall to a brutal crook like Netanyahu.

Zelenskyy and his regime have the stink of failure and death on them, and tying aid to Israel with aid to Ukraine could be a bridge too far for the Biden administration, and they might have to make a Sophie's Choice. Netanyahu is utterly unlikable, but he knows how to make himself useful, and to effectively blackmail his allies. Zelenskyy has an actor's charm, but his usefulness in wearing out Russia is rapidly diminishing, and his ability to blackmail the West into aiding him is also in decline. He must know that it's becoming easier and easier for those who'd benefit from eliminating him to be able to get away with that with minimal repercussions.

Yadda yadda yadda, the new Republican Speaker of the House is imo likely very loathe, and disinclined, to meekly agree to giving President Biden everything he is asking for. Cutting aid to Ukraine could be the price he demands for allowing Biden to claim success in delivering for Israel, bigly.

The Speaker has show signs of knowing how to embarass Biden over his asking for money for both Ukraine and Israel. He's offered a hair more money for Israel than Biden asked for, and he's been on the phone with Netanyahu.

Like I said, Zelenskyy has the stink of failure and the blood of his own people on him, and Biden can't afford to have that smell in the room when dickering over an aid package to Israel, something he has to deliver on, and something he needs to hold up as a victory for his administration. The new House Speaker has to have credibility with nearly everyone who voted him in to his position, and saving money by cutting aid to Zelenskyy is how he'd get that.

A majority of his caucus might balk at that, but those members have to deliver for Israel, and sooner rather than later. If the Speaker is adroit, he can sell them on the idea that getting tough with Ukraine will ultimately be a winner at the ballot box, both in the primry elections, and in the general elections.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 30 2023 18:51 utc | 88

@Echo Chamber | Oct 30 2023 16:06 utc | 79

Re the documentary "Finding the Money", I'll save you a click. Though the site carefully hides it, this is a pro-MMT polemic.

MMT meaning "Modern Monetary Theory". I invented this as a child when I told my parents that if we ever needed more money, we could just go to the bank and get it. The idea has not improved since.

Posted by: Boris Badenov | Oct 30 2023 19:16 utc | 89

Julian | Oct 30 2023 10:37 utc | 61
*** Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Artsakh that Russia froze for its ally Armenia in 1992 worked out?
Russia froze the conflict instead of finishing it - and then what happened? 30 years of nothing - and then what?***

Well, a lump of shit Russia should have long since terminated betrayed Armenia to both NATO and the Azeris. He was always known for wanting to do that.
But that's hardly surprising, since it is another situation that arose from the top people in Moscow being basically neoliberal Atlanticists (or worse) themselves .

Posted by: Cynic | Oct 30 2023 19:28 utc | 90

Sergei Shoigu: Ukraine has lost over 90,000 Ukrainian troops killed and wounded during the counteroffensive since 4 June 2023

▫️ During this time, almost 600 tanks and about 1,900 enemy armoured vehicles were neutralised.

▫️ The Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost over 90,000 Ukrainian troops killed and wounded during the counteroffensive launched this summer without achieving any significant successes on the battlefield, said Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.

▫️ 'Since 4 June, that is, since the beginning of the widely publicised and generously sponsored by the West Ukrainian counteroffensive Kiev has lost over 90,000 troops killed and wounded, about 600 tanks and almost 1,900 armoured vehicles of various type. Nevertheless, no tactically significant gains were made on the battlefield,' said Russian Defence Minister General of the Army Sergei Shoigu at the 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum on Monday.

▫️ Russian servicemen continue methodically and confidently to perform tasks in the special military operation zone, said the Russian Defence Minister.

▫️ He noted, 'The Russian Armed Forces will continue to methodically and confidently complete tasks and ensure the safety of civilians'.

Sergei Shoigu: Western claims against Russia regarding its alleged lowering of threshold for use of nuclear weapons are absolutely groundless

▫️ Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has described claims by the West against Russia regarding its alleged lowering of the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, including as a result of the withdrawal of ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), as absolutely groundless.

▫️ 'These accusations are absolutely groundless. Russia's nuclear doctrine has not changed and still provides for the use of nuclear weapons only in two cases: in response to an enemy nuclear strike or if there is a threat to Russia's existence, even if conventional weapons are used against it,' said Sergei Shoigu on Monday, speaking at the 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum.

▫️ This is how the Russian military chief commented on the Western camp's claims against Russia over its alleged lowering of the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, including as a result of the withdrawal of the CTBT ratification.

Sergei Shoigu: Russian-Chinese partnership is built in contrast to general situation of tension caused by actions of West

▫️ Strategic cooperation between Moscow and Beijing is building up in contrast to the hotbeds of tension caused by the actions of Western countries, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said during talks with Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Youxi in Beijing on Monday.

▫️ 'Unfortunately, the military and political situation in the world is not getting calmer. New hotbeds of tension are emerging and old ones are escalating. In fact, this is the result of geopolitical adventures, egoistic neo-colonial actions of the West. The Russian-Chinese comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation are being built in contrast to the general alarming situation,' Sergei Shoigu said.

▫️ According to to the Minister, 'traditionally friendly relations retain high dynamics of development and are getting stronger in all directions'.

▫️ A special role in this, Sergei Shoigu noted, is played by trusting contacts between the leaders of the two countries.

▫️ 'This year they have held two face-to-face meetings. In March, Xi Jinping's state visit to the Russian Federation was successful. The first foreign visit after his re-election to the highest state post became Beijing's strategic choice in favour of strengthening cooperation with Moscow,' said the Russian Defence Minister.

▫️ On 17-18 October, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Beijing, where he took part in the Third International Forum 'One Belt, One Road' as the chief guest.

▫️ 'His talks with President of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping took place, during which, among other things, attention was paid to deepening military cooperation using all mechanisms of interaction,' said Sergei Shoigu.

▫️ 'Russia and China consider each other as priority partners on the world arena,' stressed the Minister.

▫️ Sergei Shoigu expressed confidence that 'today's meeting will contribute to deepening ties between the defence ministries of the two countries and will serve to strengthen regional and global security.'

▫️ Upon the arrival of the Russian Defence Minister for the talks with Zhang Youxia from the Chinese side, the Russian delegation was officially welcomed by an honour guard company and a band.

▫️ The meeting between Sergei Shoigu and Zhang Youxia took place on the margins of the 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum, which is taking place in China.

▫️ Prior to the plenary session, the Russian Defence Minister actively communicated with his colleagues not only from the CIS and SCO countries, but also from other states. In particular, 'on his feet' he exchanged views with the heads of delegations from Belarus, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Laos, Mongolia, Myanmar, Vietnam, Nigeria and other countries.

Sergei Shoigu: productive talks on security issues with West are impossible without West's revision of its line of 'strategic defeat' of Russia

▫️ The West's line on inflicting a 'strategic defeat' on Russian Federation virtually nullifies the possibility of constructive discussions on security issues, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said, speaking at the 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum on Monday.

▫️ 'Russia is open to discussing and resolving any security issues if this dialogue is honest, equal and based on mutual respect of the contracting parties. However, without the West reconsidering its destructive line, which envisages inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia, productive negotiations in this sphere are hardly possible,' said Sergei Shoigu.

Sergei Shoigu: Russia is ready for realistic talks on Ukraine crisis settlement and co-existence with West

▫️'Russia remains ready for political talks on resolving the post-conflict situation in Ukraine and continuing to coexist with the West', said Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.

▫️'Should the necessary conditions be created, we remain ready for realistic political discussions, both on the post-conflict settlement of the Ukrainian crisis and on the parameters of further coexistence with the West as a whole',said Sergei Shoigu at the 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum on Monday.

▫️'It is important for global stability to ensure equal relations among the nuclear-weapon states that are permanent members of the UNSC', said the Russian Defence Minister.

▫️'It is important to ensure equitable relations among all nuclear-weapon states - permanent members of the UN Security Council (UNSC), which have a special responsibility for maintaining peace and global stability', he said.

▫️'The international security architecture needs to be renewed and made more sustainable in order to create a just, multipolar world order.

▫️This will require the combined efforts of all the countries concerned', said the Russian Defence Minister.

🔹 Russian Defence Ministry

Posted by: Dubu | Oct 30 2023 19:46 utc | 91

Our source reports that Zelensky’s rating began to fall rapidly.

According to all forecasts: “It will be difficult to win, the monopoly is losing 100%, becoming a completely easily controlled puppet” - source.

The source further indicates that there are no military successes and possible defeats of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are approaching. The front line is frozen/frozen. The risk of a “black winter” in Ukraine, when everything will be shut down due to the energy crisis.

The specter of an economic crisis in Ukraine due to a reduction in Western credit lines, which will lead to a collapse of the national currency and hyperinflation. An obligation/promise to the IMF to raise tariffs in Ukraine by 100% in the spring of 2024.

An increase in negative sentiment in the army, as well as among the relatives of dead soldiers - the spirit of the military Maidan began to be felt in Kyiv.

The growth of corruption scandals, bickering between elites/redistribution, the growth of crime, the growth of problems with PTSD in the military, and there are a lot of such problems. If the election campaign begins, they will all come out into the public sphere and easily collapse the inflated Ze-rating.

Zelensky’s task is to postpone the elections by any means. The only problem is whether they will agree in Washington and what Vladimir Aleksandrovich will give them for this (portfolios and chairs in the Cabinet of Ministers in the OVA in state corporations and the security/judicial bloc).

There is a possibility that Ze may promise not to stand as a candidate for himself and his wife in future elections after the war.

Posted by: Down South | Oct 30 2023 19:59 utc | 92

Posted by: Boris Badenov | Oct 30 2023 19:16 utc | 89

Don't know what you are trying to say Boris. As there is no MMT without a job guarentee. It is the key stone of the whole theory. It is the price anchor and stability. Gets rid of pump priming and interest rate targeting.

You should try reading the 30 year body of work. This will help just for starters. The starter.

https://neweconomicperspectives.org/mmt-scholarship

Then after reading all the links above read every post on Billy blog since the very beginning as the main course.

https://billmitchell.org/blog/

Then study this - Money and banking as the dessert. The assets and liabilities of the balance sheets.

https://neweconomicperspectives.org/money-banking

Then we will be both on the same page with the same level of understanding. Debate a million different things.

:)

Understand why we were able to put this together below before anyone else on the planet.

How Russian Gas Is Paid For...

https://new-wayland.com/blog/how-russian-gas-is-paid-for/

Whilst everyone else was scratching their heads.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Oct 30 2023 19:59 utc | 93

Zashkvar Office, which dispersed the Time magazine article without reading it. There is only one piece of criticism there, our inside information is even confirmed that the military began to sabotage Zelensky’s orders, which in their opinion are of a situational political nature, but strategically cause long-term damage to the army.

Main points of the article:

- Zelensky has lost his “usual sparkle of optimism, sense of humor and tendency to liven up a meeting in the war room with jokes.”
- Ze believes that the West abandoned him.
- Ze intends to fight to the last. Although those around him are disappointed and confident that Ukraine is losing, the president does not want to hear it.
- the issue of a truce is a taboo topic in the president’s team.
- blackouts this winter will cause public dissatisfaction with the work of the authorities. Now all the blame lies with the Ukrainian government for not being prepared. In 2022, the OP shifted responsibility to the Russians, but now this will not be possible - society will not believe it.

- in winter there will be resignations in the army and government. They will look for scapegoats.

- sabotage in the army. In early October, the OP demanded an operation to liberate Gorlovka.
The answer from the military came in the form of a question: What? "There are no people, no weapons. Where are the weapons? Where is the artillery? Where are the recruits?"

Alarmingly.

Our sources from Zelensky’s circle say that any negative publication in top Western media greatly affects the emotional state of the President.

Lately, he has been unable to sleep at all and has begun to react aggressively to the opinions of Western advisers.

The only one who retains influence on Zelensky is Ermak, who always finds an explanation for the processes.

Posted by: Down South | Oct 30 2023 20:11 utc | 94

Newbie @ 71

Use it or lose it?

Beat me to it. And, more succinct.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 30 2023 15:10 utc | 74

Thank you! May this be a cautionary tale on letting the enemy know they're finished (that's how global thermonuclear wars start as well)

Posted by: newbie | Oct 30 2023 20:31 utc | 95

I remember Dima said after the drone attack on Crimea (yesterday, or the day before) that you could expect another attack with more powerful aircraft, the drones were trying to suss out the Russian AD. The Ukies may have decided they better launch their SS missiles while they still have some SU-24's left. At two per plane, that's 4 jets to launch this salvo. Last time they launched 12(?) missiles. Possibly they have another aircraft that can carry these missiles now, but my understanding is that the only Soviet era aircraft that has been modified to carry them is the SU24.

Posted by: Mike R | Oct 30 2023 18:41 utc | 86

Usual western MIC talk, when you want you put an su-27 firing or whatever

Normally you have to pay licensing fees for anything to work....

Posted by: newbie | Oct 30 2023 20:32 utc | 96

Seems the near term, and perhaps longer term, trajectory of the SMO will be decided in Gaza and the ME. Who would have predicted this a year ago? The future twists and turns in unpredictable ways.

Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 30 2023 17:03 utc | 81

only if 07/10 was a birthday present, if it was then all hail the new 7D chess-master, but I'm inclined to say that this play was not RF's

Posted by: newbie | Oct 30 2023 20:38 utc | 97

Isn't there also a pipeline through Bulgaria, the original SouthStream? I think there were still continued works on it despite Russia switching to Turkey. And I think there was something in recent days about Serbia and Hungary complaining about Bulgaria's transit tax being too high.

Posted by: MiniMO | Oct 30 2023 8:45 utc | 57

When Bulgaria said 'we've changed our minds and no' to Southstream under heavy US pressure, the Turks said 'yes please'. As it was part built, if you look at its route it is 2/3 across the Black Sea towards Bulgaria and does a sharp left heading south, it was completed as Turkstream. All work in Bulgaria stopped and the already bought sections of pipe were sold off. Whether Gazprom, thinking ahead, actually installed a T junction and valves there is unknown.

This left Serbia a bit high and dry but the Turks came to the rescue. Since there was no land pipeline up from the Turkish border all the way to Serbia the missing link was constructed. Hungary then did a very advantageous deal with the Russians and now uses the same pipeline. The pipeline capacity is sold out. But both are at the mercy of the Bulgarians for transit costs. But whatever Bulgaria charges it is going to be much cheaper than sourcing their gas somehow as LNG.

The situation will get much murkier if and when Ukraine shuts their pipelines on 31/12/23. If they can afford to piss off the EU by cutting critical gas supply to central/eastern EU countries in the middle of winter and walk away from $1B+ a year of transit fees.

Posted by: JohninMK | Oct 30 2023 20:46 utc | 98

Good interview from Neil Oliver with Douglas Macgregor:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7D5eO5Qg-U

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 30 2023 20:50 utc | 99

pessimist @ 81 / newbie @ 97

Initially I thought it was a Russian Iranian Jedi move, but seeing how the USA first day had C130's on the tarmac in Israel and how fast they assembled a fleet in the eastern Mediterranean that hasn't been seen since WW2 in the Pacific, I realized it can't be the case.

More confusion, chaos, unhinged violence, ever less gray ever more black and white, ever more absolutism and ever less diplomacy, and accelerating military escalation do not play into Russia or China's favor, and is certainly not their style. If the shoe fits... they don't call the USA the Empire of Chaos for nothing.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 30 2023 21:00 utc | 100