What distinguishes us Russians from the Ukrainians?
We Russians fight to the last bullet.
Our enemies fight to the last Ukrainian…
Grüße

Posted by: Oberbayer | Oct 29 2023 13:25 utc | 3

@ Justpassinby | Oct 29 2023 13:09 utc | 1
. . . which means that Hungary and Serbia, two of the Empire’s greatest annoyances, will be relying almost entirely on TurkStream. Oh, Turkey — annoyance no. 3!
Look for some tragic accident to befall TurkStream.

Posted by: malenkov | Oct 29 2023 13:39 utc | 5

Any news on Russian aviation ?
Another thread I mentioned simultaneous attacks by half a dozen su-25.
Most clobber lists now include aviation as helping stop AFU attacks or supporting RF ones.
This is a new thing and might mean AD is highly neutered.
Comments and or additional info welcome.

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 29 2023 13:39 utc | 7

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ War Map and the Situation on the Fronts for the Evening of 28 Oct 2023; pub. 00:05⚡️
👍 In the Yasynuvatsky district, near the village of #Spartak, the AFUshniks attacked a civilian car with a kamikaze drone. On his way home, the civilian’s navigator started malfunctioning, which put him near the line of contact. The enemy targeted the car. The driver died on the spot, and his mother, who was in the car, miraculously survived. But not enough, even a few days later a corrective UAV was hovering over the scene of the tragedy to prevent Russian fighters from taking the man’s body.
⚔️ Situation on the Fronts over the past Day
🔹#Svatovo – #Kremennaya Direction:
▪️ The Russian army continues to advance in the #Kupyansk area. There is fighting near #Sinkovka and #Kislovka. In addition, there is an advance in the area of #Makeyevka.
▪️Near #Torskoye and in the #Serebryanskoye forest without changes.
🔹#Donetsk Direction:
▪️ In the #Avdeyevka section, fighting continues in the area of the railway near #Steponoye (#Petrovskoye). In the area of the #Slagheap, our fighters are consolidating their positions, which allows them to increasingly work on enemy positions in the city itself. Raids by Russian FPV drones have been particularly successful. In addition, our fighters are gradually advancing south of #Avdeyevka and in the #Severnoye area.
▪️ In the #Maryinka sector, there are successes at #Novomikhaylovka.
🔹#Zaporozhye Direction:
▪️ In the #Orekhov section the AFU tried to break through our defence between #Kopani and #Rabotino, but ran into the firepower of the Russian army. On the #Vremyevka ledge, our fighters counterattacked west of #Novodonetskoye.
⚡️ The Russian Army worked on 404 military infrastructure in the #Dnepropetrovsk and #Odessa regions. Facilities in Krivoy Rog were under attack, as well as in the #Izmail district, where the enemy’s port infrastructure is located.

https://t.me/sitreports/17162

Posted by: Down South | Oct 29 2023 13:52 utc | 9

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Here is the Wagners’ invaluable experience in the Bakhmut meat grinder. The Russian armed forces, with the experience of the boys from the orchestra, destroy all observation posts, towers with dome cameras, electronic warfare and communication systems before attacking the city.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine are deprived of sight and view of the battlefield from above.
The video shows the southern outskirts of Avdeevka, through which the attack on the city will apparently take place.
————————-
🇷🇺🇺🇦 It is reported that Russian forces have destroyed a HIMARS missile system through instant counter-battery combat.

https://t.me/remylind21/10191
https://t.me/remylind21/10197

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 29 2023 14:00 utc | 11

The track to strengthen total mobilization continues, and the Office of the President decided that it is best to shift this responsibility to the Heads of military administrations.
No one cares about the fact that Ukraine has not declared war, which means there is no basis for general mobilization, the main thing is to intimidate people and show any paper, only a few will be sued anyway…
The Constitution of Ukraine has ceased to operate; it has been replaced by decrees of petty officials who are creating chaos. Losses at the front need to be filled, which means we need to intensify the capture of men.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/20305

Posted by: Down South | Oct 29 2023 14:15 utc | 13

Ukraine Weekly Update – may be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-940

Posted by: Robert Hamilton Camp | Oct 29 2023 14:34 utc | 15

Inventory Update: A total of 517 aircraft, 253 helicopters, 8,392 unmanned aerial vehicles, 441 anti-aircraft missile systems, 13,006 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,170 multiple rocket launchers, 6,902 field artillery and mortar guns, as well as 14,760 units of special military vehicles are now gone!

Posted by: AI | Oct 29 2023 15:06 utc | 17

From 2024, Ukrenergo intends to double tariffs for electricity transmission and dispatch. Experts are already pointing out that such a sharp rise in prices could lead to a collapse of the Ukrainian economy – not only businesses, but also ordinary citizens will suffer.
It is noteworthy that this year Ukrenergo has already significantly increased tariffs for its services: the tariff for electricity transmission – by 40% and the tariff for dispatching – by 54%. The next increase will lead to losses not only for “civilian” businesses that produce goods and provide services for wide consumption, but also creates a threat to the defense industry – many enterprises in the defense sector are very energy-intensive and, unable to withstand the tariff burden, will simply leave the race.
However, the new tariffs from Ukrenergo will hit not only businesses. Businesses will shift part of the costs, and a large part, onto the shoulders of consumers by raising prices for their goods. Thus, Ukrainians, 2/3 of whom are already actually below the poverty line, will have to empty their pockets even more. And don’t forget that Ukrainians will also face the announced increase in electricity tariffs after the end of the heating season.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/20314

Posted by: Down South | Oct 29 2023 15:16 utc | 19

10
More fruits of befriending Uncle Scam.

Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Oct 29 2023 15:22 utc | 21

Posted by: Robert Hamilton Camp | Oct 29 2023 14:34 utc | 8

Ukraine Weekly Update – may be useful to some

Thank you. I read it every week. Very informative and succint. But the slag heap will not be another Mamaev Kurgan. Ukies will not take it, lose it and re-take it like the Germans did with the famous hill overlooking the Volga.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Oct 29 2023 15:25 utc | 23

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Oct 29 2023 15:25 utc | 12
The comment was a little tongue in cheek really. The Russian forces are too strong for the sort of back and forward confrontation we had in Stalingrad. Glad you are enjoying the Update – thank you.

Posted by: Robert Hamilton Camp | Oct 29 2023 15:37 utc | 25

Posted by: AI | Oct 29 2023 15:06 utc | 9
Mark Sleboda wrote in January 2023:

The army that the Kiev regime started 2022 out with, was the second largest in Europe, after Russia according to Western military assessments, and included some 250,000 active duty troops, and a large arsenal of capable Soviet-legacy military hardware – 2,600 tanks, 14,000 armored vehicles, 3,000 artillery pieces, 500 multiple launch rocket systems, 90 ballistic missiles, nearly a thousand total air defense systems, over 300 military aircraft, and a large drone fleet. This army had been built up for eight years with NATO funding and training, and was dug into heavy fortifications and trenches constructed over the same period.
…
The Kiev regime’s second army cobbled together during the first half of 2022 by NATO states consisted of the tattered remnants of the first, as well as pretty much the entire remaining Soviet legacy arsenal of the former east Bloc countries that have since joined NATO, like Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Czech, Slovakia, etc.
…
There weapons were the best and most suitable logistically for Kiev regime troops because they already knew how to use and repair them, and had parts stocks for them as well. This included over 400 tanks, at least 300 infantry fighting vehicles, over a thousand APCs, dozens more combat aircraft – and all this was peppered with a hodgepodge of Western military gear including several hundred artillery pieces, including the M777s, over a hundred multiple launch rocket systems including the HIMARS, hundreds of drones, over 10,000 handheld Anti-tank guided missiles and anti-aircraft missiles, and more.
…
The Kiev regime claims that its waves of mobilization and mass forced conscription built up a million-man army. Thousands of them received NATO training and had all of NATO’s satellites, C4ISR, as well as Pentagon planning and wargaming provided at their disposal.
…
“>https://marksleboda.substack.com/p/ukraines-three-armies

I think it’s safe to say that the initial AFU air force (around 300 fighters, bombers, transport aircraft, trainers etc.) and pretty much all Polish/Czech etc. externally provided aircraft are gone.
Not sure about anti-air systems, whether they had 1000 initially.
Ukraine had over 16000 AFVs and tanks in total so 3000 left, maybe?
Ukraine’s initial MLRS systems have been twice rolled over, which means Nato has given them at least 500 more MLRS.
Ukraine’s initial amount of artillery systems has been rolled over 2.3 times. Did Nato give Ukraine 3000 more artillery pieces? They might have. Nato has thrown the KITCHEN SINK into Ukraine, regardless of what they claim in public. They even stripped the US active army units, which was the final course of action.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 29 2023 15:41 utc | 27

I think it’s interesting that all the pro-Ukrainian OSINT sites seem to be closing down. Between that and Kirby recycling Spring 2022 talking points about Russia’s conscripts it sure seems like the Ukraine desk is being liquidated. No matter how many times Biden or Yellen claim the US can manage two wars at once, the truth is almost certainly that it cannot. An election year will make that even more difficult because foreign policy is always an extension of domestic politics in the US.
The next step is Ukrainian nationalists turning against their sponsors and lashing out at Europe.

Posted by: Lex | Oct 29 2023 16:01 utc | 29

Hi! Does anyone ever view videos from the Ukie site “hromadske”? They are obviously pro AFU and do some propaganda style editing but I think they are less propagandist than most of the rotating talking heads that Americans see on corporate cable news channels. Hromadske’s videos show lives of AFU soldiers on the front lines and by reading between the lines and seeing things, a person can gain tidbits of real knowledge. One of the things a person sees in the hromadske videos is the age of the soldiers, the average age is much, much older than say the guys in my kid’s U.S. Army platoon, there was a video from last fall, probably filmed in October, where the entire Ukie tank crew was 50+ years old. That doesn’t exist in the U.S. Army, even with reserve elements.
Anyway, I watched 2-3 of hromadske’s newer videos this week and I thought I’d share one of their newest ones featuring “big belly boy” (BBB) who is also over 50 years old. BBB talks smack early in the vid as he smokes numerous cigs, telling how their unit hears Russian troops short distances away “getting drunk and throwing grenades at each other”. But later, down in what appears to be more hastily dug bunker in their trenches, BBB gets more serious and admits that half of his original platoon is dead. He also claims, perhaps in a bit of Slavic bravado, that he also had a serious abdominal wound and spent a good while in the hospital recovering. With his current belly fat pad, I sort of doubt the story but who really knows, some bigger, fatter guys are actually fairly tough and nimble.
Then BBB takes the viewer into some really dark corners and claims that the Russians have tortured and killed “ATO” guys (Azov “battalion” members?) in truly horrific ways, the first supposed witnessed by a guy’s wife (who was also raped) and another where the ATO’s guy’s hand was cut off, cooked, and then the “Russians” made this guy eat his own hand. BBB says this all in a seemingly clear way. Perhaps an example of collective bullshit telling and believing until that the original teller ends up believing their own bullshit. Or just a case of mass psychosis the groups make up to explain away/give them will for revenge when they have endured so much physical and physiological carnage of living through what they are living through. BBB probably won’t live through the war but it may not matter because his soul seems already dead to a certain degree… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqyJnPEudus

Posted by: DakotaRog | Oct 29 2023 16:03 utc | 31

Ah comrades, the steady beat of craven disinformation continues. Look, here comes the Trumpy Mike Johnson, a light for RF! He makes some trouble for those war monger internationalist Democrats! Lo! The GOP squawks about decoupling Ukraine funding and Israel bonus pay. The elements of the GOP base that are pro RF and the whole Bronze Age Mindset schtick, nod, go, “yeh huh, ya see!” Dugin etal preach, “Then, we have won!” (Yet again, oh, yet again. What a clever plan! Don’t you see?). Then, after the morons go to watch football or whatever dazed distraction, the new speaker clarifies. Oh yes, maximum war support to win for Ukraine: Beat China down. But yes, decouple from Israel. Sure. Decouple away. Shummer gets to present a “clean” Israel bill to a standing O. The show. The kayfabe. Keep drawing RF in for what? The west literally can not believe how well they have pulled off this limited war. So ready to go big. All the factories tooled up and raring. Ramping up for years. The Trump theater decoupling from China. All preparing Old U.S. “irrational” theory. And why PRC prod, support, encourage RF? (They really did, remember? Remember? …Oh, but for that “Olympic delay” thanks to Xi and Putin’s grandiosity, Kyiv could well have fallen in weeks. But the bait and hope keep getting fed in. The west will change course, the leader will change. the materials and money will dry up. RF can not fathom the depth of the US economy alone, let alone with all the industrialized nations of the world. PRC nightmare? Why did they goad RF? All a multi generational NWO mind fuck on us all, friends. Free your mind, and your ass will follow. (pfunk) IDK if PRC is NWO. But, at this dire point, where empire pits all the players against themselves, we must transcend and revolutionize without relent. Who ‘nuther level. A lot of love. and some fine rifles in skilled hands, no doubt, here and there. The love revolution to stop moron may be a hope. As for RF best move to keep Moscow and St Petersburg, legislate a reversal of Crimea and Ukraine “republics” annexation, withdraw from all occupied territories of Ukraine, Georgia, Transnitria, and join with the west in the containment of PRC hell state. If not, PRC will take east, and buy west in your fire sale. (ongoing). For those who love the Russian people, because, Dostoyevsky, Tolstoy, Kropotkin, etc… it has been agony to see the NWO AngloUS/German operation overthrow the lovely soviets and instal Lenin to end the war in the German east. The plan worked beyond imagining, and the Red Fascist menace took over all the years of progressive anarchist development and humanity. The international was hijacked by red fascist LeninStalin and then its creature Mao. All run and funded out of Harriman Wall St NWO gang. Facts. Control the dialectic. With lots of good intentions to mold society! Look at the growth and wonders! Just also old, dumb plans of 19th century people who understood little of planetary or physical science. But good intentions must abound, because somehow we are still here for all the mindfuckery. Have RF consume itself in Ukraine. Have Israel divide the Ottoman Empire, and then fight within itself. Look at the DNA tests Israel ran when all the Ethiopians came and “Jews” of a certain type got uppity that they might not be jews. So the big daily paper and universities did huge DNA work to identify some presumed “jewish marker genes” and they claimed they did and they claimed the study showed these Ethiopian jews were, in fact, of the twelve tribes! The most Jewish of all, though, as reported in that big daily and everywhere then, were the “Palestinians”. Those who stayed. Those who survived thousands of years in the same place. Brothers and sisters. Family. Divide and conquer. The trauma programing of the jews. Then who made Hamas? Shin Bet and Mossad. To counter PLO. Israel divide the created nations of old Ottoman empire, Israel divide on itself. West profits hill awaiting disaster, for them. Russia dismantled. Oh yes! Getting better all the time. How far will the mandarin spread. Time to change tack. Or else. This is terrible. Or, relent, modernize, help contain PRC (and free them from nightmare state) and have vast prosperity in your core. Really terrible position. God speed and love! Stop all this, because, you know, nano science will free or kill us all soon enough.

Posted by: Aholioho | Oct 29 2023 16:15 utc | 33

Posted by: Lex | Oct 29 2023 16:01 utc | 15
What might happen is the following.
It’s possible and even likely that Zelensky (or whoever US uses to replace him with) will never talk to Putin or any other Russian president again. And no further peace negotiations, or any sort of communication will be conducted, ever, between Ukraine or Russia.
If that happens, there’s a pretty high chance Ukraine will keep existence as a paper entity in the western media, with Zelensky as the president of this paper entity, while in reality, most of the population has left to either Europe, or Russia. I think that paper entity will be a bag-holder for all debt owed to the west, or rather western corporations and banks who funder Ukraine during the war. Eventually, the EU and US recognize the paper entity Ukraine will pay none of the debts.
I also think that von der Leyen and the west recently talking about transferring “seized Russian assets to Ukraine” doesn’t mean Ukraine (the paper entity) will see 1 cent of that money. rather, it means the “seized Russian assets” will be transferred to the international corporations and bondholders of Ukraine, and paper-Ukraine will be left out to hang.
That is why the only option for Ukraine is to get integrated into Poland. I mean, Lwow oblast, that is, and maybe part of Khmelnitsky oblast. The rest will be left to make whatever sort of arrangement they want with Russia.
And voilà, such was the fate of “allies of the US”, no more Ukraine.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 29 2023 16:21 utc | 35

reply to 18
Sputnik talks about EU efforts to commit theft of Russian funds. They don’t have a legal framework to steal as yet. What you say might give them what they need. The bondholders would claim they can’t get paid because Russia wrecked Ukraine, hence, give us their funds.

Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 29 2023 16:30 utc | 37

Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 29 2023 16:30 utc | 19
That is nowhere near a legal framework, not that this will ever refrain west.
Only thing is, retaliating on any west founds that Russia can put her hands on, if any.

Posted by: Mario | Oct 29 2023 16:44 utc | 39

Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 29 2023 16:30 utc | 19
Russia will not accept euro’s as payment for anything any more. EU can “seize Russian assets” but it’s a one trick pony. They might use it to somehow pay off Ukraine’s debt.
But there are no more trade ties between EUrope and Russia in the sense where Euro may be utilized as a payment currency. Russia doesn’t accept euro anymore.
That also makes EU controlled Europe significantly more dependent on the US, who has increasingly dictated more the trade policies of EU. Most of the energy EU can import now goes through the US, and in US dollars.
US meanwhile does buy energy from the Middle East and India. Middle East exports energy in yuan (supposedly). I’m not sure any energy deals will be renewed using the US dollars any longer.
So US must import energy with Chinese yuans or Indian rupees, or other currencies. If they buy from China or India, it’s ultimately Russian oil and gas. If they buy with the purpose of re-exporting to Europe, they are using yuans and rupees to import energy which they sell accepting dollars from Europe.
If they buy from the Middle East (i.e. “not Russian oil or gas”), that means the Middle east supply gets drained to the west, and China and India will buy from Russia directly, anyway.
My point is the sanctions have had no effect other than Europe must now conduct its trade with the rest of the world merely through the US. EU is at the bottom of the trade chain and is more reliant on USD than ever before. Which is probably why Euro will continue weakening against the USD as well.
Also, how this relates to Ukraine? It means Ukraine has no more energy connection with Russia. Ukraine, is now in fact a direct peripheral extension of the EU, which has to be fully fed from and by the EU. EU is not capable of even sustaining its own productive economy, forget about Ukraine. EU also seems to be having problems importing LNG which is in tight supply. It can also happen at any moment that US suddenly decides to restrict LNG exports to Europe in favor of its own economy.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 29 2023 16:56 utc | 41

Posted by: Aholioho | Oct 29 2023 16:15 utc | 17
You ever hear of paragraphs?

Posted by: morongobill | Oct 29 2023 17:08 utc | 43

Ivan Utenkov’s opinion WRT the Avdeeka operation..
https://t.me/ivan_utenkov13
By Ivan Utenkov (https://t.me/ivan_utenkov13)
Battle for Avdeevka: A Decisive Effort
Unexpectedly for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the command of the Russian Armed Forces introduced huge fresh reserves into the battle for Avdeevka – two armies that had previously been in disguise in the distracting Kupyansk-Liman direction (2nd and 41st OVA). Finally, defining his main battle this fall.
The task of the 1st Corps of the 8th OVA in the battle for Avdeeva was to initially “shake” the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ defense system in this direction. There was severe bloodshed, but initial success was achieved (in particular, the notorious waste heap was taken).
The main forces went forward, squeezing pincers around Avdeevka – in 10 directions at once, not allowing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to come to their senses. The important fortification “Tsar’s Hunt” was surrounded; Russian troops reached the railway line in the north of the city and approached the village of Severnoye in the south. The corridor through which the Ukrainian Armed Forces can receive supplies in Avdeevka (via Orlovka) has narrowed from 9 to 7 kilometers. According to BILD military expert Julian Röpke, Avdeevka faces encirclement.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine are transferring serious reserves (in particular, the well-known 47th brigade), large-scale artillery duels are taking place, and the Russian Aerospace Forces are covering the Avdeevka Coke and Chemical Plant, which is critical to the defense and adjacent to the waste heap. Intelligence reports that at night, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine evacuated the headquarters from Avdeevka. However, the decisive battles are still ahead and will not end soon.
Lukashenko was skeptical about the results of the battle for Avdeevka : Recently, in the Avdeevka area, Russia tried to put pressure. Many people died. Did not work out. They stand head-to-head to death, entrenched.
However, Lukashenko himself also turned out to be unaware of the operation with the unexpected introduction of two armies into the battle.
Slavyangrad reports on the fate of Wagner….
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/71249
New information about the Wagner Group
1. The Wagner Group has officially become a division of the Rosgvardia.
2. All employees are invited to enter into individual contracts. The entire structure of the Wagner Group, work procedures, and command hierarchy remain unchanged, except for updates in the terms of employment under the current conditions.
3. A new Wagner Group base is under construction in the SMO zone, and units are preparing to operate in the [geographic] “near” (within 6 months). Tasks in the “far” (within 9 months) and Belarus continue.
4. Employees from the reserve are recruites alongside with new recruits. Candidates must not have a history of [criminal prosecution], restrictions on leaving, active [arrest warrants] within the Russian Federation, or an outstanding criminal record. Contracts are available for all categories: Project-K, Umbrella, foreigners, with an age range from 20 to 55.
5. Contract signing follows approval for the position on the first day, with mandatory one-month training. Payment remains the same, while camp training – 80 (thousand roubles) on large terms contract – 170 (thousand roubles), on the active frontline – starting from 240 (thousand roubles).
Provisions, healthcare, and rehabilitation are provided in the same manner as for Rosgvardia servicemen.
P.S. Individuals who have transferred from the Wagner Group to the Ministry of Defense or volunteer detachments are not eligible for reenlistment [into the Wagner Group].
The war continues…
INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 29 2023 17:23 utc | 45

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 29 2023 17:23 utc | 23
thanks for your comments and news updates. much appreciated!

Posted by: migueljose | Oct 29 2023 17:36 utc | 47

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 29 2023 16:56 utc | 21
All the eu managed with their diversification (was that the word they love spouting?) of energy suppliers is in the end just solidifying the us as their monopoly for supplies.
Ultimately, the us strangled one of its competitors, namely eu and the euro, to a chain. A while ago there was this rumor that the us wants to get the eu to pay with dollars for energy, not euros. Looks like that plan now starts to bear its fruits slowly. Eliminate one currency from energy trading to keep the dollar prime.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Oct 29 2023 17:42 utc | 49

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 29 2023 16:21 utc | 18
Very insightful comments and speculation as usual unimperator. So, the paper Ukraine is maybe being set up like an off shore account for scams and laundering?

Posted by: migueljose | Oct 29 2023 17:49 utc | 51

Eighthman | Oct 29 2023 16:30 utc | 19
*** Sputnik talks about EU efforts to commit theft of Russian funds. They don’t have a legal framework to steal as yet. What you say might give them what they need. The bondholders would claim they can’t get paid because Russia wrecked Ukraine, hence, give us their funds.***
Why are the neoliberal traitors who facilitated the theft of Russia’s funds in the first place still alive and in office? Likewise the Oligarchs and other Atlanticist fifth-columnists…

Posted by: Cynic | Oct 29 2023 18:26 utc | 53

The next step is Ukrainian nationalists turning against their sponsors and lashing out at Europe.
Lex | Oct 29 2023 16:01 utc | 15
Germany in recent days:
– very hastily, tightening of controls on eastern border
– fake ‘bomb threats’ against public institutions, some of which refer to Hamas/ Gaza
So whatever happens, it will be blamed on ‘Hamas supporters’, even if signs point to Ukronazis.
My point is the sanctions have had no effect other than Europe must now conduct its trade with the rest of the world merely through the US. EU is at the bottom of the trade chain and is more reliant on USD than ever before. Which is probably why Euro will continue weakening against the USD as well.
unimperator | Oct 29 2023 16:56 utc | 21
Justpassinby | Oct 29 2023 17:42 utc | 25
Simpler reasoning to reach same conclusion: With no more pipeline oil & gas, EUrope depends on energy imports by ship – via sea lanes controlled by US/UK navy. The precise opposite of ‘diversification’ (which is what EU had until 2021). nb, whether LNG is from US, Qatar, Nigeria etc doesn’t matter.
EU/ Eurozone have huge export surplus. As long as Europeans save in Euros, no problems for the currency. Once they lose confidence & switch to $, look out. Euro devaluation would actually be good for economy, but bad for consumers – real wages & thus internal consumption would decline. This explains ECB rate policy – can’t allow interest rate divergence from USD/GBP.
(had to redo the comment bc first time it disappeared, sorry if somewhat brut)

Posted by: smuks | Oct 29 2023 20:26 utc | 55

Avdeyevka military question:
On the older thread, it was speculated that AFU might give up southern parts of the city.
Wouldn’t that be quite suicidal from a military perspective? From my amateurish understanding, the outer perimeter of the city is heavily fortified – if you give up part of that ‘ring’, wouldn’t that leave your entire defence highly vulnerable?

Posted by: smuks | Oct 29 2023 20:31 utc | 57

“Sputnik talks about EU efforts to commit theft of Russian funds. They don’t have a legal framework to steal as yet. What you say might give them what they need. The bondholders would claim they can’t get paid because Russia wrecked Ukraine, hence, give us their funds.”
Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 29 2023 16:30 utc | 19
Which will probably be in foreign currency as it is funds Russia got for for exporting. Then hoarded at the ECB and other foreign central banks.
Export-led nations have to constantly provide liquidity into the rest of the world to allow others to buy their goods. Otherwise the rest of the world runs out of the particular money that is needed for the export transaction to complete and the export never happens (UK buyers buy Chinese goods with GBP, but Chinese workers are paid in Yuan. The relative shortage of Yuan due to the export differential has to be provided by the Chinese or Chinese goods become, in absurdum, infinitely expensive).
So with these funds being in Euro’s and probably £’s and Yen and $’s etc. Or Eurobonds, gilts, Japanese bonds and US treasuries etc. The only reason they are trying to steal them is for 2 reasons.
1) Saves the political stink of having to keep telling their own voters how much money they are creating from thin air to fund Ukraine and then lying and calling it tax payers money. The truth will come out as people’s taxes don’t rise.
2) If they steal Russian foreign currency then Ukraine will own that amount to them even after using it to buy more weapons from it. The thieves will earn twice from the funds stolen. Firstly by buying the weapons and second by paying it back.
That’s how the EU gangsters in Brussels operate. As their voters wave flags and sing ode to joy. Brainwashed out of their minds.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Oct 29 2023 20:59 utc | 59

It seems Russia is unable to stop Ukrainians who are attacking via Dnieper.
Ukrainians are simply ready to die for their cause. no matter how stupid it may be.

Posted by: zorge | Oct 29 2023 21:06 utc | 61

Posted by: smuks | Oct 29 2023 20:31 utc | 29
I think the Zelenskyy regime has run into the stumbling block that while its tried and true best soldiers are still willing to fight and kill Russians, they are not at all enthusiastic about staying in place and knowingly serving themself up as sacrificial lambs, so as to buy the Zelenskyy regime more time and/or to allow it to save face.
If you’re defending a fortified spot with lots of ammo, supplies, and fellow soldiers, that’s one thing. If half the guys and most of the ammo get pulled away, and you’re told to “give ’em hell!”, then the writing is on the wall.
If your troops are unwilling to get ground down so as to slow an advance, then you have to wihdraw to a defendible position. And since Russia is by now very well known to take prisoners and threat them well, AFU soldiers that get used as expendible pawns see themself as having a choice. AFU commanders could be wary of having surrenders starting to get popular, as that could spread like wildfire.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 29 2023 21:08 utc | 63

Posted by: zorge | Oct 29 2023 21:06 utc | 31
no stopping means
running back
mortars and grenades
advance
repeat

Posted by: Macpott | Oct 29 2023 21:32 utc | 65

Re: Posted by: Justpassinby | Oct 29 2023 13:09 utc | 1

“ukraine“ just declared that naftogaz wont continiue transit of russian gas by the end of 2024. No extension of contract.

Very interesting stuff.
Well, there we have it – if Russia wants to continue to stick to contracts supplying gas to their friends in Hungary (& Slovakia?!?) – they need to make significant gains – TERRITORIAL GAINS over the next year and reach the Hungarian & Slovakian borders.
If the Russians can’t reach Hungary & Slovakia they will likely forfeit these contracts because the transit will be turned off – and don’t tell me this is a war of attrition – if you don’t take the territory you don’t own it.

Posted by: Julian | Oct 29 2023 22:53 utc | 67

Ukraine Weekly Update – may be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-940
Posted by: Robert Hamilton Camp | Oct 29 2023 14:34 utc | 8

Great update. Thanks!

Posted by: Simon | Oct 29 2023 22:55 utc | 69

Re: Posted by: malenkov | Oct 29 2023 13:39 utc | 3
”get the job done” and roll up to the Hungarian border by the end of 2024.
Given all the talk around here that Ukraine is on the brink of imminent collapse in 2023 – this should be an absolute piece of cake – no excuses.

Posted by: Julian | Oct 29 2023 23:08 utc | 71

I think “ukraines“ decision regarding the gas transit could be to get russia into zugzwang, precisely because of the hungary/serbia/slovakia issue that the eu/nato faces.
They want to get those countries back on track via blackmail, and as russia is not in a hurry, this will create problems for those that still get russian energy. After that is done, turkstream/bluestream will get the nordstram treatment i think.
Once all the dependancies on russian energy is gone, they can sell war much easier. Thats why nato/eu are so hellbent to cancel everything russian i believe.
No trade, no relations, nato aggression easy to sell to the eu sheeple.
They throw every old weaponsystem into ukraine to drain russia, and slowly build their eastern flank with personel and material. Germany sends some thousand troops into lithuania (how fitting, to the country that holds annual nazi parades), uk sends jets somewhere, finland and the rumored 200 planes, and so on.
From my laymans perspective this all reeks of preparation for the next big one.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Oct 29 2023 23:09 utc | 73

@ Justpassinby | Oct 29 2023 23:09 utc | 37
Only thing is: What’s left for the ”big one” against Russki “orcs”? All I see are F 35s, nukes, and undertrained soldiers who might feel secure in their pronouns.

Posted by: malenkov | Oct 29 2023 23:15 utc | 75

The Ukraine project is finished. Hamas’ 7th Oct move, by design or default has been the final nail for NATO’S Eastern front.
The US is hastily getting prepared to open a new front to take out Iran and possibly Syria too, in order to save Izzy, it’s ME project.
NATO has significantly build up its naval and air defense forces.
Whether Russian air and naval assets will targeted is the question.
Hungary may be obligated to move militarily against Ukraine to protect its gas transit as an act of war. The cracks in NATO is wider than MSM portrays. Just look at Turkey kicking the US donkey while it’s down. Turkey knows its Tuckstream and gas hub projects are on NATO’s chopping block.

Posted by: Suresh | Oct 29 2023 23:33 utc | 77

Suresh | Oct 29 2023 23:33 utc | 39
**** Hungary may be obligated to move militarily against Ukraine to protect its gas transit as an act of war. ***
Don’t have enough troops and firepower for that, else they might already have threatened to intervene on behalf of the Kiev-oppressed Hungarian area in western Ukraine.

Posted by: Cynic | Oct 29 2023 23:45 utc | 79

@ Cynic | Oct 29 2023 23:45 utc | 40
Yup. I don’t think Hungary is in a position to do anything, but Turkey had better be concerned about the fate of TurkStream.

Posted by: malenkov | Oct 29 2023 23:48 utc | 81

As Ukraine aid fails the dirty tricks will increase. Moldova, Turkey (Turkstream), pressure on Hungary and Slovakia, Georgia. The CIA trained Ukrainian proxies will get to work overtime…

Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 30 2023 1:04 utc | 83

and don’t tell me this is a war of attrition – if you don’t take the territory you don’t own it.
Posted by: Julian | Oct 29 2023 22:53 utc | 34
So after all this time and the fact it’s been repeatedly stated you still have no idea what the purpose of the SMO is?

Posted by: Screwdriver | Oct 30 2023 1:15 utc | 85

@ Screwdriver | Oct 30 2023 1:15 utc | 43 trying to talk some sense into our barflea Julian
Julian is exhibiting that adage about when you have a hammer, everything is a nail., rinse, repeat the senseless claim.
I suppose if it pays the bills and if you lost your morals somewhere……

Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 30 2023 1:32 utc | 87

the artillery losses of the Ukes matches the loss of Ukes airforce.
Is it the same reason, the new rooskie AWACS that can now see artillery fires. Same time frame, same jump in kill rates, same AWACS instant targeting?

Posted by: Joe Below | Oct 30 2023 2:15 utc | 89

by Julian | Oct 29 2023 22:53 utc | 34
and don’t tell me this is a war of attrition.
It is not a war. It is a military-technical operation, done on the cheap, with very little front-line soldiers, lot more FPVs and long range stand-off weapons Let us not forget 500k trainees, rotating in or out, learning, while combat testing various stuff. For RF the Ukraine is not an issue and the effort invested is not even close to what would war be like. That why it seems equalized or sometimes stale.
RF is focusing its main effort to counter NATO/US, and that process is not looking good for the NATO/US ground and air forces.
Again, the war with Russia looks very different.
It is all Russian land anyway, but the one that Russia is not craving for.
Two things are the fact, that Russia is not in the business of a land conquest, and Russia will always come after their money.

Posted by: whirlX | Oct 30 2023 3:28 utc | 91

I watched a recent Ukrainian film called “The Line” on Amazon that some might find of interest. A mafia drama set on the Ukrainian Slovak border at the the time of the Slovak accession to the EU. Gives a sense of the conditions along the Ukrainian EU borders – corruption and violence amidst/bred by relative poverty. Doubt much has changed. Of course national borders always have some of this character, but I suspect the Ukrainian borders are a textbook case. A lot of extra money to be made with the conscription avoiders, weapons, and aid goods.

Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 30 2023 4:48 utc | 93

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🔎 On the Similarities for the AFU between Battle for #Bakhmut and the Situation in #Avdeyevka⚡️
❗️The AFU Position is deteriorating and the options for action become fewer.
🔹How did Events Develop?
▪️At the first stage of the operation, the AFU failed to disrupt the execution of the Russian plan, in particular, to identify and hit places of troop staging, to prevent the advance of mechanised columns, etc.
▪️Apparently, at the start of active operations, the relationship between part of the AFU forces was disrupted and the interconnected fire system was partially paralysed. In particular, this manifested itself in a gradually weakening counterbattery fight. Currently, the situation does not change. The AFU positions and rear areas are under constant shelling. The response of the AFU is limited.
▪️A significant part of the AFU’s artillery and air defences were partially destroyed by strikes during the initial operation phase, and the surviving ones are suppressed on a regular basis. This allowed the Russian Army to use all types of artillery, as well as bomber and army aviation, including attack helicopters, for strikes.
🔹What is the Main Difficulty for the AFU?
▪️The city garrison receives ammo and other supplies via the #Berdychi – #Petrovskoye – #Semyonovka area and the #Orlovka – #Lastochkino line. The logistics system partially resembles the scheme used by the AFU during the defence of #Bakhmut. The transport and logistics systems in both cases relies on a road network clearly visible to Russian troops. Most of the routes are unpaved, the use of which for active transport in the autumn-winter period will be difficult and slow down the supply.
▪️It is noteworthy that in early October the AFU tried to move mechanised forces from the #Zaporozhye direction towards #Donetsk. In particular, Leopard 2 tanks, M2 Bradley IFVs and M113 APCs of the 47th Mechanized Brigade were spotted there. They are now assumed to be northwest of the city, but are not being sent into combat for security reasons.
🔹What is the Situation Now?
▪️The AFU now face active fights in the northern #Avdeyevka section, at #Slagheap and close to the railway in the area of #Koksokhim. The distance between the northern and southern sections has already been reduced to 7 km in a straight line. If this trend continues, the city garrisons and the troops in the areas of #Stepovoye, #Orlovka, #Severnoye and #Avdeyevka will begin to face problems with evacuating the wounded and supplying them in the same way as they did in #Bakhmut. It is unlikely that mosquito logistics using pickups will help where the density of Russian artillery fire is maximum.
▪️No massive inflow of fresh AFU forces into the area has been recorded so far, nor has there been any mass use of aircraft, AFVs or artillery. Some AFU troops are in the semicircle, holding fortified positions, but at the moment they are rather isolated from the active battle than actively participating in it.
❗️It is important to understand that the AFU does not have the initiative at #Avdeyevka at the moment and is in passive defence. This may be due both to the lack of forces in the area and the impossibility of transferring significant reinforcements to threatened areas, and to the lack of clear objectives by the command. In simple terms, the AFU command presumably has no consensus on whether the defence of the city should be continued or if they should be withdrawn to more advantageous positions.
📌 Given that #Ukraine’s political leadership prefers to cling on territory at any cost and tends to ignore the military’s advice, we can assume that a voluntary withdrawal from #Avdeyevka is unlikely. However, the defence of this area may become much more difficult for the AFU than in #Mariupol or #Bakhmut.

https://t.me/sitreports/17213

Posted by: Down South | Oct 30 2023 6:28 utc | 95

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Military Expert Boris Rozhin on the SMO #Highlights in the Territory of the Former Ukraine by 22:08 Moscow Time for 29 October 2023⚡️
🔹1. #Zaporozhye Direction:
In the area of #Pyatikhatki – no changes.
In the area of #Rabotino and #Verbovoye during the day several attacks of the enemy were repelled, which did not achieve success and suffered significant losses in men and equipment.
The AFU units are being rotated, as the shattered units are losing their offensive potential.
🔹2. #Vremyevka Ledge:
▪️The situation is generally unchanged. Positional battles are ongoing.
▪️Our troops are probing for opportunities to improve positions north of #Priyutnoye and near #Novomayorskoye. Also the processing of #Urozhaynoye continues.
🔹3.#Ugledar:
▪️Our troops are attacking at #Novomikhaylovka, there are some tactical advances in our favour. But it is too early to talk about taking #Novomikhaylovka.
▪️The enemy has a powerful fortification there, covering the eastern flank of the #Ugledar grouping. It will be quite difficult to break through.
▪️In the area of #Maryinka – no significant changes.
🔹4. #Avdeyevka:
▪️Positional fighting continues north and south of the city. Movements are still of an insignificant nature.
▪️The RF Armed Forces have shifted their focus to fire damage to enemy positions in a number of areas in an effort to ensure the prerequisites for future strikes and reduce losses in offensive actions.
▪️The enemy is moving reinforcements to #Avdeyevka.
▪️It is too early to talk about encircling the city.
▪️The supply of the AFU through #Orlovka continues.
▪️According to a number of reports, the enemy has withdrawn part of the headquarters structures from the #Avdeyevka pocket.
🔹5. #Artyomovsk:
▪️No significant changes north of the city.
▪️Positional fighting near #Vasyukovka and Orekhovo-Vasilyevka.
▪️To the south continued fighting on the #Kleshcheyevka – #Andreyevka- #Kurdyumovka line.
▪️The enemy could not break into our defence, while continuing to suffer serious losses.
▪️Of course, we are not talking about a rush bypassing #Artyomovsk from the south.
🔹6.#Svatovo – #Kupyansk:
▪️The RF Armed Forces continue to hold the initiative, but the enemy, using transferred reinforcements, launches attacks in an attempt to extinguish it. This has so far led to a slowdown in our movement east of #Oskol, but the key question is whether the enemy will be able to hold the front after exhausting the transferred reserves, which were also withdrawn from the #Zaporozhye direction.

https://t.me/sitreports/17215

Posted by: Down South | Oct 30 2023 6:29 utc | 97

🇮🇱🇷🇺🇺🇦🖇 Ukrainian CIPSO has managed to spark anti-Israeli protests in Dagestan
For the last two days, a video from the Dagestan Khasavyurt has been circulating on the Internet: young people are looking for Jews in the local Flamingo hotel that were supposed to have come from Israel
🔻It would seem, where did the Jews come from in Khasavyurt and what was all this all about?
▪️Information about the Israelis in the hotel was planted by the administrators of the well-known channel Morning Dagestan (part of the network of Ukrainian CIPsO)
▪️Ukrainian hirelings called for solidarity with the people of Palestine and riots. As “proof”- a screenshot of anonymous correspondence of certain persons on WhatsApp without any adequate information was provided
📌Last year, the channel’s editors actively incited protest sentiments in Dagestan against the backdrop of the partial mobilization announced in the Russian Federation. The resource includes the network of fugitive ex-deputy Ilya Ponomarev. And judging by the fact that the search for Jews also began in Karachay-Cherkessia, the number of resources controlled by Ukrainians has only grown
It is surprising that no one was embarrassed by the open incitement to block the federal highway on a flimsy pretext. No one was surprised by the ridiculous use of Islamic rhetoric by administrators in the spirit of “give more TAKFIR” along with other terminology every word, which is more likely to be used by comic characters than by serious, spiritualized Muslims
❗️However, it still worked. The young people were unable to find a single Jew in the Flamingo Hotel in Dagestan, as in Karachay-Cherkessia. But the Ukrainian CIPsO managed to create a false picture, for some time increase pressure on Russian law enforcement agencies and at the same time make some Russians look like fools
🔻By the way, back in 2013 they wrote that in the Russian Southern Federal District and North Caucasian Federal District combined there are only about 3.5 thousand Jews left, and their outflow continues. How many of them are left there today? A couple hundred? And it’s certainly unlikely that all of them are hiding in Khasavyurt

https://t.me/sitreports/17219

◾ Ilya Ponomaryov, ex Russian deputy now working as a foreign agent in the West has openly admitted that he works on telegram to create problems in Dagestan and that the protests have been coordinated mostly by his Telegram channel “Morning Dagestan”
– Ponomaryov leader figure of the Liberal pro Western opposition in Russia fled the country in February 2022 and has since worked presumably for American government agencies in the propaganda field.

https://t.me/sitreports/17218

Yesterday TsIPSO carried out an effective cognitive operation in Dagestan, for this they used their network of telegram channels in Russia. The cognitive dissonance of the whole situation lies in the fact that the instruments dispersing anti-Jewish sentiments in Dagestan belong to the Jew Ilya Ponomarev.
The Financial Times: Violence in Dagestan is fueled by rumors that refugees from Israel are being resettled in the Muslim-majority region. Some of these rumors were apparently inflated by a Telegram channel with 50 thousand subscribers. This channel is associated with former Russian politician Ilya Ponomarev. He now lives in Kyiv, opposes the Kremlin and claims to be coordinating a group of Russians fighting against Moscow in Ukraine. Of course, Ponomarev said that he does not control the channel, they all belong to the Ukrainian special services.
They beautifully used the arrival of a plane from Israel for mass protests in the region, they even promoted the narrative of child killers, I wonder if the Mossad will then determine who owns the channel?

https://t.me/rezident_ua/20315

Posted by: Down South | Oct 30 2023 6:36 utc | 99