Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Oct 22 2023 13:37 utc | 2
###################
Wow, I thought that was their fortress. I didn’t expect it to fall until winter.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 22 2023 13:40 utc | 3

The internal squabbling and struggle between the elites continues.
The head of the Office of the President lost the vote in the Rada on the case of “squeezing out” military personal income tax from the regions. Then there weren’t enough votes. But Ermak is sure that he has not yet lost the war for this case.
And today, on instructions from Bankova, rallies are taking place again under city councils. Colleagues were correct in pointing out that these are the only permitted rallies in the country. The bank doesn’t even hide the fact that this is their doing.
Although Ermak received a warning from the Western lobby, he still did not give up his goals, since there is a struggle for money and personal well-being.
Ermak’s psychology is simple: when you have cleared everyone out and become strong (strengthened the monopoly of power), they will talk to you. When “partners” have eroded your monopoly with their proteges, you are weak and will be told around.
Now ZeErmak’s monopoly is threatened more by the Western lobby than by the Russian Armed Forces. Partners can “turn on the money tap” and then everything will collapse. But Ze also understands that Biden is partially dependent on the Ukrainian crisis and, as usual, ZeErmak is bluffing and raising rates, but in order to last longer in the auction, they need to focus all the money on “themselves.”
They hide behind the interests of the country and the army, but in reality there is an ordinary struggle for power and a place at the feeding trough.
The redistribution has just begun, more to come. We are watching…

https://t.me/legitimniy/16528

Posted by: Down South | Oct 22 2023 13:43 utc | 5

If we compare the mobilization processes in Ukraine and the Russian Federation, they are strikingly different.
If in Ukraine there is a mass exodus of men of military age using a number of corruption schemes to avoid going to the front or going abroad, then in the Russian Federation the army continues to grow at the expense of contract soldiers. Thus, only since the beginning of 2023, 357 thousand people have been accepted into the Russian army. Moreover, this number included not only those who were in reserve and signed a contract, but also volunteers.
In Ukraine, there are virtually no “volunteers” left—there are no queues at the military registration and enlistment offices (as was the case in the first months of the military conflict). Now military commissars are forcibly dragging people to the TCC – the mobilization resource in the country is almost exhausted, so the capture of almost every man of military age is more reminiscent of footage from an action-packed film.
That is, the potential of Russia and Ukraine in military terms is simply not comparable, and the current situation with mobilization processes in the two countries suggests that we have no chance of surviving a resource war.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/20205

Posted by: Down South | Oct 22 2023 13:50 utc | 7

Our source reports that the Russians continue to persistently implement the “Avdeevka noose”, trying to eventually take the fortified area into a semi-circle, which will complicate its supply, as was the case with Bakhmut, where there was only one “road of death”.
The Western press is already writing about this and this issue is constantly discussed at headquarters. The Ukrainian Armed Forces were forced to retreat from some of their positions. The fighting has been going on for almost 12 days. Everyone’s losses are heavy; that’s where the front is most active right now.
The source indicates that the Russians are thus creating problems for the Ukrainian Armed Forces with the loss of a fortified area, forcing the OP to bring up significant reserves, which the Russians are trying to identify and destroy, as well as logistics supply routes.
Many see this as a trap for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, since the Russians are deliberately dragging the Ukrainian Armed Forces into this “game.”
If Bankova makes the same mistakes in this sector of the front as in Bakhmut, then this will have tragic consequences for the entire Ukrainian crisis.

https://t.me/legitimniy/16531

Posted by: Down South | Oct 22 2023 13:54 utc | 9

Ukraine Weekly Update: May be Useful to Some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-f3b

Posted by: Robert Hamilton Camp | Oct 22 2023 13:55 utc | 11

@LoveDonbass 5
The slagheap, not the town itself, but yes the slagheap is a tremendously strategic position.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Oct 22 2023 13:55 utc | 13

My question is, do countries have the right to defend their citizens, control their borders and fight off their enemies? If the answer is yes for Russia but no for Israel I would like to hear a logical explanation of why the difference.

The logical difference is that you don’t recognize the Palestinian state. They, too, have a right to defend their citizens, control their borders and fight off their enemies. The colonial powers created the two-state solution. The mistake was making Israel a state. It should have just been Palestine, where both Jews and Arabs could have peacefully co-existed. States based upon religion belong in the middle/dark ages. The death and destruction we’re witnessing is solely the result of this entity that belongs in the dark ages.

Posted by: zeke2u | Oct 22 2023 14:26 utc | 15

“I’m puzzled by the double standard of most of you in this forum.”
I’m puzzled by others’ comments. Apparently Israelis are entitled exclusive control over lands that they didn’t rule for millennia…until 75 years ago. But Russia is NOT entitled to lands Moscow controlled for centuries up to 35 years ago!

Posted by: JohnH | Oct 22 2023 15:48 utc | 17

Wouldn’t kinzhals launched from Mig 31s over the Black sea have to fly over Turkey’s air space en route to the Eastern Mediterranean?? Could that present a problem with the Turks??

Posted by: Crucible 99 | Oct 22 2023 15:51 utc | 19

Thank you malenkov, john brewster, and all. This is poor Western Project Ukraine’s world debut and she’s not used to sharing the spotlight. She needs a little air to breathe. We should natter on about her continuous theatrical raids, as if she’s accomplishing something.
With the queen fainting (Western Project Israel) and the debutante feeling abandoned and light headed (Western Project Ukraine) these fainting spells might become contagious and other Western Projects might catch the vapors. And really, we can’t expect our host here, b, to have running a half dozen crumbling nation topics bi-weekly. That way would ruin the triumphalist aire of the Rules-Based Order party.
Let’s all be of good cheer and fire up the band again!

Posted by: titmouse | Oct 22 2023 15:56 utc | 21

If you don’t mind I’ll post something (about ukraine and just posted on the old Thread)
Maybe it will put this thread back on track 😀
Posted by: newbie | Oct 21 2023 21:00 utc | 196
Keep up the informative posts.
Posted by: horseguards | Oct 22 2023 11:29 utc | 219
Thank you there is little information from the test tube (Avdeevka) but the little information that has trickled allows for some speculation:
1. The 9 mig-29 the AFU lost and the news about heavy bombing seems to indicate AFU finally lost most of its air defence and is desperate enough to use planes even to lose them. Wonder how they’re faring in pilots
2. Taking the offensive means abandoning 8-1 ratios, the question is how high they can be kept, as I mentioned there is little information but tank-wise there is talk of 3-1. If it is translatable to troops it is still short. If RF wants to close the operation in time for new year (and within a 70.000 KIA budget), a 5-1 ratio has to be sustained throughout the final push.
3. The test tube should be roughly at 1/3 of start of SMO level. If it works the next 2 months should be at 2/3 of first week of SMO levels. Carnage as not seen since. Almost 3 times Bakhmut worst month.
4. for those 60 days appart from 10.000 shells a day from north korea RF will need 2 or 3 times that from their own wharehouses and/or heavier usage of air-force bombing
5. If this endgame comes to fruition it ends with around 800.000 KIA AFU, 1.400.000 WIA AFU (almost 1.000.000 of which invalides), with virtualy not a single able fighting man left…more than 130.000 RF KIA (and as many maimed ) will be the price. Almost 3.000.000 lives destroyed for something that couldn’t end otherwise, only sooner and magnitudes less bloody.
6. The ratio of 1-5 is needed in case AFU throws more untrained meat at the end. That leads us to the last question. What will nato do in november, as the offensive expands and the first numbers are crunched the projections will show the same (or much better) than this simulation. One last dance? Nowhere did I mention huge flag movements, just cauldron after cauldron being closed and baked until there is no line of defense and the way to Odesa and kiev lie open and the cities unguarded, the advantage is no huge target to tempt tactical nukes so one might hope no additional folly from nato.
As usual, feel free to counterpoint any assumption or details on calculations. Most of all, any fresh input is welcome, this is only the projection I can do with available data.
Posted by: newbie | Oct 22 2023 15:38 utc | 228

Posted by: newbie | Oct 22 2023 16:08 utc | 23

Israel is becoming a huge problem for the Ukrainian authorities – not only has the world’s leading media lost interest in the situation in the country, but also the supply of weapons and shells to Kyiv is slowing down – the West is rearming the Israelis.
Israel has already received 40 thousand NATO 155 mm artillery shells from Washington. This ammunition is used for the American M-777 howitzers, the French Caesar and the Polish Crab. All such weapons have been in Ukraine for a long time, but Tel Aviv, not Kyiv, receives the shells. The Pentagon also provided HATSAL with the first batch of armored vehicles: medical, tactical and cargo jeeps. It is also noteworthy that the United States will return two batteries of the Iron Dome air defense system to Israel (by the way, President Zelensky had previously unsuccessfully asked for them).
Moreover, the Pentagon plans to send tens of thousands more 155mm artillery shells allocated to Ukraine to Israel. Moreover, US officials suggested that the redirection of shells from Ukraine to Israel would not have an immediate impact on Ukraine’s ability to fight Russian troops.
That is, the Americans, who were previously unable to supply a sufficient amount of ammunition to Kyiv, now have to be “distracted” by Israel, which in terms of priorities is much higher than Ukraine.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/20214

Our insight is that Western countries will give priority to Israel in the supply of ammunition, and Ukraine will fade into the background. This will cause a shortage of ammunition for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
The German press writes about this, and the NYT also indicates that 155-caliber shells that were supposed to go to Ukraine are going to Israel.
It turns out that Zelensky was aware of this, and the Western press also writes about it.
This will not affect the Ukrainian crisis immediately, but after a month of active fighting, all the reserves of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will completely dry up, and then there could be a collapse.

https://t.me/legitimniy/16534

Our source in the OP confirmed information from Western media that Zelensky was notified about the reduction in BC supplies and even raised this issue at headquarters.
For now, the decision was made to save shells and use them pointwise, in the most exposed positions, which is why the counteroffensive on the flanks of Bakhmut and the Zaporozhye direction was suspended.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/20217

Posted by: Down South | Oct 22 2023 16:20 utc | 25

..Palestinians are not “indigenous” to that area, rather they are the leftovers of Islamic invasions.
Posted by: Moonraker | Oct 22 2023 15:02 utc | 20
………………………………………………………….
Absolutely correct. We have same thing all over Serbian lands, Muslims in Bosnia, Albanians in Kosovo, North Macedonia and Montenegro. All these are historically Serbian lands. All of them are nothing but leftovers from Ottoman Empire. All of them were supposed to leave our land when Turks left. They didn’t but eventually they will.

Posted by: Preki | Oct 22 2023 16:23 utc | 27

..Palestinians are not “indigenous” to that area, rather they are the leftovers of Islamic invasions.
Posted by: Moonraker | Oct 22 2023 15:02 utc | 20
………………………………………………………….
Absolutely correct. We have same thing all over Serbian lands, Muslims in Bosnia, Albanians in Kosovo, North Macedonia and Montenegro. All these are historically Serbian lands. All of them are nothing but leftovers from Ottoman Empire. All of them were supposed to leave our land when Turks left. They didn’t but eventually they will.
Posted by: Preki | Oct 22 2023 16:23 utc | 14
Absolutely wrong.
Palestines was the name that romans gave to the Philisteis, that were present in that area from 1200 BC.
Apparently they were of greek/egean origin and they battled for thousand years with the jews. Both of them were conquered by various other powers in the region, one of them, more recently were the Muslims.. So they are indegenous of some sort.

Posted by: Mario | Oct 22 2023 16:36 utc | 29

Preki | Oct 22 2023 16:23 utc | 14….
Correct about Serbia, but wrong about Palestine — the Palestinians, not the Khazars, are descended from the original inhabitants. They just changed religions.

Posted by: Cynic | Oct 22 2023 16:38 utc | 31

@ newbie, §12:
On your point 6, it looks as though the Ukies will have to send more meat to the Avdeyevka kessel.
And, if they´ve to have any chance of stopping the kessel´s closure, they´d have to send some of the “faithful” experienced Ukronazis. It doesn´t look as though the Russians are going to storm Avdeyevka as they did Artëmovsk – too expensive in lives and not much quicker than a kessel.
As you say, after Avdeyevka, the way is clear to Odessa and Kiev.

Posted by: John Marks | Oct 22 2023 16:51 utc | 33

Now “western support” has stopped has anyone idea when the UKR are likely to actually run out of ammo. I mean the cupboard is bare.
Because correct me if I’m wrong, but at that point it’s a “hands up” time and Russia just walks through and takes it.

Posted by: PalmaSailor | Oct 22 2023 17:03 utc | 35

Guys, this is exactly what the West has been using for decades to rule remote regions: stoke nationalism and ancient-isms everywhere, divide, sit back and sip whiskey ruling them all.
We even had this directly recognized when they tried to “nation-build” Afganistan.
There is no connection between thousands of years ago and now. Nation-states that have been built in Europe in medieval times to the 18th century. That time is gone. There is no resemblance of that time with civic processes today, not even in the most is9lated of places.
That doesn’t mean that ethicity and culture doesn’t matter but these natural contrasts are abused by Western agencies for influence purposes.
Albanian nationalism is stoked by the US and is the strongest on the Balkans as they are their proxy. Serbian nationalism arises in response to that. Croatian nationalism, also not a joke, arises in response to that and here we go…

Posted by: alek_a | Oct 22 2023 17:05 utc | 37

Many see this as a trap for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, since the Russians are deliberately dragging the Ukrainian Armed Forces into this “game.”
If Bankova makes the same mistakes in this sector of the front as in Bakhmut, then this will have tragic consequences for the entire Ukrainian crisis.
https://t.me/legitimniy/16531
Posted by: Down South | Oct 22 2023 13
It is a trap of two dimensions. Kiev must decide whether it lets go of Adveeka or tries to keep it. The latter means robbing from one sector to feed another and exposes the reinforcements during movement and preparation. But to lose it may be more disastrous. The “counteroffensive” can be spun, losing a major fortification cannot. And because it is a major node in the Ukrainian defense situated such that it also threatens Russian forces and cities, losing it has multiplied costs.

Posted by: Lex | Oct 22 2023 17:12 utc | 39

Posted by: PalmaSailor | Oct 22 2023 17:03 utc | 18
Western support hasnt stopped, there is 6x more in the new Biden war package for them than for Israel. Also I dont believe the West is running out of ammunition, that is just a psyop – strategically placed narratives masquerading as news – that the Telegrams latch on as monetizable content.
If anyone is critical with ammo, it will be Russia as they need to take care of it on their own.

Posted by: alek_a | Oct 22 2023 17:13 utc | 41

Avdeyevka represents a huge investment for Kiev, the most fortified and well defended town on the front and a strategic point for keeping Donetsk City under fire. If they lose it, along with Ubledar and the coal mine, they will have little of strategic value left to defend along the front from Zaporizhia to the Russian border. I suspect Kiev will commit a significant portion of their remaining competent reserves to defend it, and that this is what Russia wants and expects. The remaining fortified towns to the north will be increasingly left without competent defenders and will be short of armor and artillery required to slow Russian progress.

Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 22 2023 17:20 utc | 43

alek_a@21
The critical requirement for Kiev is maintaining their national budget above the level that will initiate political collapse. The need for weapons is secondary to this. We will see if the west can maintain the financial lifeline in a timely manner over the winter. Timeliness is critical, and political squabbles could interrupt the flow of funds.

Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 22 2023 17:30 utc | 45

Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 22 2023 17:30 utc | 23
Yes I agree. Most of the money goes to plug holes in the budget of the central authority that in turn keeps everything together and can fund their propaganda as well (which is also expensive).
Weapons and ammo they have plenty of, except maybe expensive air defense which will I believe be in short supply everywhere in the world if we keep barreling on to WW3.
With rockets being about 100x cheaper than the missiles that shoot them down, WW3 will be one big atrocity against everything alive.

Posted by: alek_a | Oct 22 2023 18:12 utc | 47

alek_a@21
The critical requirement for Kiev is maintaining their national budget above the level that will initiate political collapse. The need for weapons is secondary to this. We will see if the west can maintain the financial lifeline in a timely manner over the winter. Timeliness is critical, and political squabbles could interrupt the flow of funds.
Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 22 2023 17:30 utc | 23
—————————————————————
The estimate I have seen here at MoA indicates $24B per three months, just to keep the government payroll and its various expenses alive. Weapons money comes from a bunch of different NATO pots.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 22 2023 18:19 utc | 49

Avdeyevka represents a huge investment for Kiev, the most fortified and well defended town on the front …
Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 22 2023 17:20 utc | 22
—
If Zelinsky/NATO can’t hold Avdeevka they can’t hold anything.

Posted by: too scents | Oct 22 2023 18:23 utc | 51

Report claims AFU launched counter-attacks around the slag mountain, have been unable to take it back. The front is leveled with the rail line.

Rybar mapping appears to be correct. Ukrainian counter attacks failed to regain the industrial hill and it now appears the lines are level with the railway line.
Bad news for a Ukrainian Avdeevka.

More on Kherson / Dnieper area landings. No reserves to support, no equipment to ferry more reserves or heavy equipment, only small DRG landed which was kicked back to the shoreline.

🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 Regarding another unsuccessful landing of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ DRG on the left bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region, you need to understand the following:
Firstly, what is commonly called an amphibious operation, in fact, of course, is not one. Raids of Ukrainian DRGs in the area. Krynki village or near the Antonovsky railway bridge partially or completely copy the mechanics of the appearance of Ukrainian troops under the Antonovsky road bridge. The result of the latter has long been known: the arriving groups were discovered and destroyed, and the military meaning of the operation remained unclear – Military Chronicle. (https://t.me/milchronicles/2769)
Secondly, attempts to inflate such events into almost a collapse of the front look at least strange, taking into account the fact that the situation in the Kherson direction has long been developing far from in favor of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Thirdly, when assessing the chances of conducting a full-fledged landing operation, it is worth taking into account that the most important thing in this case will not be the fact of its start, but the final goal and the ability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to support the landing with reserves. To carry out the operation, and even more so to consolidate the result, Ukrainian troops will need approximately the same number of soldiers as have already been lost in Zaporozhye. Whether the Ukrainian troops are ready to lose such a number of personnel in a secondary direction (against the background of the settlements of Rabotino, Avdeevka and Kleshcheevka) is a big question for them.
🔴 @DDGeopolitics

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 22 2023 18:33 utc | 53

Question to those with military knowledge:
Would it be possible to encircle Avdeevka, not so much to starve, but to ‘envelope’ & neutralize it so the RuAF can focus on other sectors of the front (or even open a new one)? Is it desirable?
Or will Russia deliberately leave a supply road open, so AFU will do everything to strengthen it and can be ‘bled dry’ à la Bakhmut, as the pessimist (#22) seems to suggest?
Most seem to agree that head-on attack would be idiotic, and with ammo supply running dry, Avdeevka wouldn’t be that important anymore imo.
(The Ukraine-Palestine comparison doesn’t make much sense either way imo – too different.)

Posted by: smuks | Oct 22 2023 18:48 utc | 55

Posted by: smuks | Oct 22 2023 18:48 utc | 28
Thing is, neither side are idiots. Of course, propaganda portrays them as such but that is not reality.
Everything we come up here as an idea has already been gamed out many times over in the respective HQs. Sorry for the non answer but it is a thing I learned through the year or so I have been visiting here.
This is also why it is taking so long for clarity at the battlefield, far more than in the movies eh? Both sides are quite competent and are slugging it out step by step. If we are to believe the casualties figures some of the posters here are coming up with – and are more than educated guesses – we are seeing a conflict on the scale of WW2. That took 5 years to end.

Posted by: alek_a | Oct 22 2023 19:08 utc | 57

It would be an academic question.
If it comes to pass.
Lot’s of other events would be ongoing.
Wouldn’t kinzhals launched from Mig 31s over the Black sea have to fly over Turkey’s air space en route to the Eastern Mediterranean?? Could that present a problem with the Turks??
Posted by: Crucible 99 | Oct 22 2023 15:51 utc | 10

Posted by: jpc | Oct 22 2023 19:09 utc | 59

Posted by: alek_a | Oct 22 2023 17:13 utc | 21
Actually that money is in the realm of dreams.
Advantage on RF is that they not depend on external support.

Posted by: Mario | Oct 22 2023 19:10 utc | 61

@ newbie, §12:
On your point 6, it looks as though the Ukies will have to send more meat to the Avdeyevka kessel.
And, if they´ve to have any chance of stopping the kessel´s closure, they´d have to send some of the “faithful” experienced Ukronazis. It doesn´t look as though the Russians are going to storm Avdeyevka as they did Artëmovsk – too expensive in lives and not much quicker than a kessel.
As you say, after Avdeyevka, the way is clear to Odessa and Kiev.
Posted by: John Marks | Oct 22 2023 16:51 utc | 17
Our source reports that the Russians continue to persistently implement the “Avdeevka noose”,
Many see this as a trap for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, since the Russians are deliberately dragging the Ukrainian Armed Forces into this “game.”
If Bankova makes the same mistakes in this sector of the front as in Bakhmut, then this will have tragic consequences for the entire Ukrainian crisis.
https://t.me/legitimniy/16531
Posted by: Down South | Oct 22 2023 13:54 utc | 5
This is NOT a Bakhmut meat-grinder, it is a test tube.
If Ukraine tries to treat it as Bakhmut it will have a terrible surprise and will probably tilt the numbers to the ratio expected (and scenario one with bulge after bulge caan go forward).
They already sent an extra 20.000(?) there that they might regret later (if they were mostly elite units).
Why is this not Bakhmut?
RF now has the ressources, abd the budget (70.000+ KIA), to go on the offensive, Baakhmut was a way to keep the AFU occcupied and distracted.
AD is probably at a maneageable level, and the more things go the less it will be an issue.
But if the AFU just drops the ball everytime the RF attack… then they’ll be routed (then go scenario 2 is in place and RF only has to worry abot not letting logistics fail it).
I think z is in a catch22, unless he can keep too high a price for each defeat.

Posted by: newbie | Oct 22 2023 19:20 utc | 63

A guess at the Ukrainian calculus is that they will try to hold the line and prevent any major changes in the front due to Russian initiatives hoping that, in the mean time, the financial mess can be resolved in their favor. I believe this suits the Russians for the moment.

Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 22 2023 19:22 utc | 65

alek_a@19 You trivialise the history of Croation nationalism. And you are wreong to attribute agency to the US in the matter: the break up of Yugoslavia was a German project and the Croats were acting, in their traditional role, as stalking horses for Catholicism and German imperialism.
Mario@15 There is no doubt that the current Palestinians are largely descendants of the people who had lived there for centuries before Rome was ever hard of. These include those who were Jews and Samaritans, many of whom became Christians and, in later years joining Arab invaders, converts to Islam.
On the subject of Ukraine has it occurred to others that while there is a developing crisis in the Middle East Russia is not going to do anything much in Ukraine that could be used by the imperialists to justify aggression in the region?
I expect to hear little of anything except defensive operations until the situation in the Levant- in all its aspects including the mobilisation of Arab masses- develops.

Posted by: bevin | Oct 22 2023 19:23 utc | 67

On the subject of Ukraine has it occurred to others that while there is a developing crisis in the Middle East Russia is not going to do anything much in Ukraine that could be used by the imperialists to justify aggression in the region?
I expect to hear little of anything except defensive operations until the situation in the Levant- in all its aspects including the mobilisation of Arab masses- develops.
Posted by: bevin | Oct 22 2023 19:23 utc | 34
No way, the operation has started and the objective is simple finish this off before a new draft can throw another 400.000 meat into the oven.
If Nato wants to go full retard it changes little, anything from a massive boots on the ground (that only US could do) would change little to the plans (except having to dispose of sundry europeans), and if US tried going boots on ukraine then the two carrier groups would go down and if it starts WWIII , it didn’t, just slightly advanced it.
Now the only thing that US might do is go for Iran or Syria and say tit for tat and let us call it even….
Russia might let that one slip as a reasonable price for avoiding WWIII.

Posted by: newbie | Oct 22 2023 19:32 utc | 69

Posted by: smuks | Oct 22 2023 18:48 utc | 28
They will encircle Avdeevka with firepower not troops, hence the bitter fighting for the surrounding areas of high elevation and the terrain features that protect those key terrain features. Physically trying to encircle the city, unless advances on the flank leave it well behind enemy lines, or disrupt/destroy potential relieving forces, pose numerous problems for the investing force.
1. Manpower: creating the physical pincers is a huge troop drain, because you need forces that can both repel attacks from relieving forces and those from the city, often simultaneously.
2. Supply and support: the extended supply lines required are vulnerable to enemy interdiction (especially in the 21st C) and any changes in the weather. Fire support is difficult to provide, especially shorter ranged battalion support weapons, that often have to be emplaced between the inward and outward facing perimeter. Rotation of troops is also a problem, exacerbated by the increased tempo of combat they experience.
3. Enemy opportunities: by stretching out forces, to form the pincers you are giving an enemy force plenty of opportunities to repeatedly strike at different points of the line.
The Russians learned from bitter experience in WW2 that physically pocketing large numbers of troops in fortified areas brought with it a whole host of problems. You fight with what you’ve got and within your capabilities, the Red Army had access to huge numbers of troops but lacked the technology to create an ‘operational encirclement’, the current Russian Army has the technology but not the manpower reserves to physically cut off the city and its defenders.

Posted by: Milites | Oct 22 2023 19:38 utc | 71

Wouldn’t kinzhals launched from Mig 31s over the Black sea have to fly over Turkey’s air space en route to the Eastern Mediterranean?? Could that present a problem with the Turks??
Posted by: Crucible 99 | Oct 22 2023 15:51 utc | 10
If Russia attacks an US aircraft carrier with missiles that can theoretically sink it (so no some 60s scuds) I dont think anyone will be caring much about what Turkye thinks as we shall all be scrambilng for the nuke shelter.

Posted by: alek_a | Oct 22 2023 19:40 utc | 73

Posted by: bevin | Oct 22 2023 19:23 utc | 34
Yes I know, I am from the region and pretty much saw it live on TV back then. I was however trying to make a point.

Posted by: alek_a | Oct 22 2023 19:41 utc | 75

If Russia attacks an US aircraft carrier with missiles that can theoretically sink it (so no some 60s scuds) I dont think anyone will be caring much about what Turkye thinks as we shall all be scrambilng for the nuke shelter.
Posted by: alek_a | Oct 22 2023 19:40 utc | 37
Couldn’t say it better 😀

Posted by: newbie | Oct 22 2023 19:47 utc | 77

And you are wreong to attribute agency to the US in the matter: the break up of Yugoslavia was a German project and the Croats were acting, in their traditional role, as stalking horses for Catholicism and German imperialism.
bevin | Oct 22 2023 19:23 utc | 34
It was originally a German project, and the post-1991 ‘original sin’ in terms of ignoring intl. law.
However, the US later came in to do the ‘heavy lifting’ and bring things to an end, motivated probably by the prospect of eliminating Russian influence in the region – and gaining a military foothold in the Balkans, not having done so in 1945 (which was long seen as a mistake afaik). So, alek_a is right about Albanian nationalism. Whether Serbian or Croatian nationalism ‘came first’, well, the chicken or the egg…

Posted by: smuks | Oct 22 2023 20:10 utc | 79

If anyone is critical with ammo, it will be Russia as they need to take care of it on their own.
Posted by: alek_a | Oct 22 2023 17:13 utc | 21
Absolutely no way Russia is out of ammo.
It’s ingrained into them. The entire country has done national service and everyone in the health service has two passports. One international one and one military one.
No way. And they have k own this is coming for a long time.
The west however, I think is out of ammo.
Have you ever even met anyone that works in a munitions factory in the west? No. I thought not.

Posted by: PalmaSailor | Oct 22 2023 20:11 utc | 81

All war is an atrocity. The very fact that we can consider doing such awful things reveals what sort of species we really are. Certainly not “sapient”.

Posted by: Bramble | Oct 22 2023 20:14 utc | 83

Putin has been digging his own grave in Ukraine. By a stronger population he would already be hanged for incompetence. Like aren’t Russians proud and feeling patriotic to their armies? Are they fine with being on the back foot, having to defend some shit villages in no man’s land, when they should be launching large scale attacks to capture whole Ukraine?
Imagine instead of stopping this useless war over destroyed cities and useless soil, then Russia could focus on its own development with all the billions of money that comes from exploiting its natural ressources for a mafia regime. Like who fcking cares about geopolitics if you are too weak militarily. Get a new plan for the next 30years, because Ukraine is a dead end.
The rest of the world doesn’t accept the new territories as Russian. Maybe North Korea and Belarus does, lol. Russia nukes when its existence is threatened. If a dictator goes crazy and Russians support him, then that’s too bad. Putins existence is not tied to Russian existence, he is disposable. Question is, do Russians wanna get nuked for Putin or for Mother Russia? What is more important?

Posted by: Hall of Valhalla | Oct 22 2023 20:17 utc | 85

The new cauldron is not like Bakmut – if there are no civilians, then it’s a pure military target.
Russia has 9000 lb bombs, according to Mercouris.
Time to use these old Soviet Megabombs in Adveeka.

Posted by: scepticalSOB | Oct 22 2023 20:20 utc | 87

Posted by: PalmaSailor | Oct 22 2023 20:11 utc | 41
North Korea has given at least 10 million shells for the standard Russian/Soviet caliber, probably several multiples of 10 million (so the rumors go).
Russian ambassador to UN told US to f#ck off with its whining, basically.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 22 2023 20:22 utc | 89

Posted by: Bramble | Oct 22 2023 20:14 utc | 42
The fact that that the majority of humanity, for the majority of their lives, don’t demonstrate their barbarous nature, is what makes us sapient.

Posted by: Milites | Oct 22 2023 20:24 utc | 91

Mario | 15
Palestines was the name that romans gave to the Philisteis, that were present in that area from 1200 BC.
The Roman province that is now mostly Israel was called Judea during the early years of the Imperial era. At least as I understand it. In 135, after the 2nd jewish revolt, the Romans finally got fed up, banned Jews from much Judea, renamed Jerusalem and renamed the province Palestine.

Posted by: danf51 | Oct 22 2023 20:25 utc | 93

Now this is what I was looking for (although details on the 9 mig-29 would be welcome)
▫️Fighter Aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces intercepted one Su-24 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force close to Odessa.
▫️Air defence units shot down one Su-24 aircraft, two MiG-29 aircraft, and one Mi-8 helicopter of the Ukrainian Air Force.
If RF interceptors can shoot down near Odesa, their AD are crap, RF , as per second line, are not, to stress the point…
Ukrainian propaganda is upset by the increased use of guided bombs
According to one Ukrainian military blogger, Russia has carried out 700 bomb attacks since the beginning of October.
During the latest attacks, the Russian Army is using new “mixed” tactics aimed at depleting air defense and achieving maximum results – Ukrainian Armed Forces
If now, and not in past may as was discussed, the AFU loses the ability to interdict RF Air Force, then soon all A2AD crumbles.
The day of the platypus is upon us, with the range , speed and strike load it can carry the su-34 can , if it can fly in flocks , raze artillery that escaped counter-battery , replace and go beyond what artillery can do, basically take this war from WWI to WWII, and talking once again of range, half of Ukraine is put under a reasonably priced attack.

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 22 2023 20:26 utc | 95

Milites | Oct 22 2023 19:38 utc | 36
alek_a | Oct 22 2023 19:08 utc | 29
Thanks for your replies, also now saw Down South’s post #5. I understand some geopolitics and geoeconomics, but don’t know much about military strategy & tactics, trying to learn.
‘Encircle with firepower’ makes perfect sense, but does this mean (attempting to) block all supplies to Avdeevka – or letting them trickle in deliberately, to destroy a maximum of troops & material in one place?
My impression is that RuAF are trying to limit fighting to few cities and rural areas, so as to prevent the destruction of places like Kramatorsk or even Kharkov. They’ll take them when there’s nothing left of AFU.
Hall of Valhalla | Oct 22 2023 20:17 utc | 43
Thank you for your valuable contribution. Please hold the line while I ignore it.

Posted by: smuks | Oct 22 2023 20:28 utc | 97

Posted by: Hall of Valhalla | Oct 22 2023 20:17 utc | 43
Quite interesting nonsense.
The mighty USA and NATO weren’t able to win a war unless with outstanding superiority, now Puting is incompetent by substantially winning a war against NATO. 😂😂😂

Posted by: Mario | Oct 22 2023 20:31 utc | 99