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October 19, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-243
Comments
@ Newbie, §198:
Good analysis, Newbie. But why should the Russians risk the inevitable loss of life when they can just kessel it? The Ukie “faithful” will still have to go in to prevent a kessel. All the Russians have to do is take Orlovka – a much easier proposition than a frontal assault on Avdeyevka.
Posted by: John Marks | Oct 21 2023 22:41 utc | 199
Because to get rid of 100.000 Galicians 1.000.000 Russian Ukrainians had to be killed or maimed.
It was needed until air supremacy could be attained and enough forces mustered.
And 100.000 RF soldiers also maimed or killed.
Better to pay 150.000 more and spare a million or two , I bleliece the choice wasn’t there because the SMO started half-cocked because nobody believed z would be stupid enough to believe in a different ending.
If it’s doable it must be done, if it is not another approach must be used to force the slaughter to stop, 9 out of 10 who die are Russians , one way or the other…
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 21 2023 23:14 utc | 401
@ Newbie, §198:
Good analysis, Newbie. But why should the Russians risk the inevitable loss of life when they can just kessel it? The Ukie “faithful” will still have to go in to prevent a kessel. All the Russians have to do is take Orlovka – a much easier proposition than a frontal assault on Avdeyevka.
Posted by: John Marks | Oct 21 2023 22:41 utc | 199
Because to get rid of 100.000 Galicians 1.000.000 Russian Ukrainians had to be killed or maimed.
It was needed until air supremacy could be attained and enough forces mustered.
And 100.000 RF soldiers also maimed or killed.
Better to pay 150.000 more and spare a million or two , I bleliece the choice wasn’t there because the SMO started half-cocked because nobody believed z would be stupid enough to believe in a different ending.
If it’s doable it must be done, if it is not another approach must be used to force the slaughter to stop, 9 out of 10 who die are Russians , one way or the other…
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 21 2023 23:14 utc | 402
This impenetrability of the Russian lines, by relying on poorly trained troops, means any tactical success does not create the concomitant disruption and dislocation that can often lead to further advances and a potential collapse cascade.
Posted by: Milites | Oct 21 2023 22:41 utc | 200
I know active defense , but that does not change that to eliminate 2 Galicians you get 1 dead RF and 9 forced conscript often russian or Romanian AFU
Nobody wants to think os a million killed or maimed AFU because it is a defeat of a kind
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 21 2023 23:19 utc | 403
This impenetrability of the Russian lines, by relying on poorly trained troops, means any tactical success does not create the concomitant disruption and dislocation that can often lead to further advances and a potential collapse cascade.
Posted by: Milites | Oct 21 2023 22:41 utc | 200
I know active defense , but that does not change that to eliminate 2 Galicians you get 1 dead RF and 9 forced conscript often russian or Romanian AFU
Nobody wants to think os a million killed or maimed AFU because it is a defeat of a kind
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 21 2023 23:19 utc | 404
@wagelaborer | Oct 21 2023 1:14 utc | 148
But why was everyone silent when that war started 8 years ago?
Why didn’t everyone swear at the slaughter of thousands of citizens in Eastern Ukraine?
Why didn’t everyone swear at Ukraine for not following the Minsk agreements?
Where was everyone who looked away when 52 people were burnt alive in Odessa?
Where was everyone who thought it was fine that a 2014 elected government was overthrown and a major European country was taken over by bunch of neo-nazis?
Where was everyone when the Ukrainian regime took away from Russian Ukrainians their basic human rights?
Can add to that
Why did the West ignore the slaughter of Palestinians in Palestine for like over 70 years and are now only having misgivings about what the Jews are doing in the ME.
Us humans are just not rational, logical or ethical most of the time. We are not Vulcan like Spock.
Posted by: gT | Oct 22 2023 0:11 utc | 405
@wagelaborer | Oct 21 2023 1:14 utc | 148
But why was everyone silent when that war started 8 years ago?
Why didn’t everyone swear at the slaughter of thousands of citizens in Eastern Ukraine?
Why didn’t everyone swear at Ukraine for not following the Minsk agreements?
Where was everyone who looked away when 52 people were burnt alive in Odessa?
Where was everyone who thought it was fine that a 2014 elected government was overthrown and a major European country was taken over by bunch of neo-nazis?
Where was everyone when the Ukrainian regime took away from Russian Ukrainians their basic human rights?
Can add to that
Why did the West ignore the slaughter of Palestinians in Palestine for like over 70 years and are now only having misgivings about what the Jews are doing in the ME.
Us humans are just not rational, logical or ethical most of the time. We are not Vulcan like Spock.
Posted by: gT | Oct 22 2023 0:11 utc | 406
canuck | Oct 20 2023 18:21 utc | 135
The Accountant | Oct 21 2023 6:03 utc | 155
Generally agree with canuck.
Accountant, you seem to be thinking about a closed economy, 19th C. style.
Many don’t seem to understand that countries (CBs) can always print currency and thus buy their own debt, but they cannot print demand for that currency. Which isn’t a problem for exporter Japan, but for the US with its huge current account deficit, it is. It needs constant outside demand for $ (c. 1 tn/ year), i.e. exporters willing to save in $ rather than local or other currency.
There’s a third option for the US besides the two you mention: Destroy other currencies to create more external demand for $/ places for expansion of $ capital.
Posted by: smuks | Oct 22 2023 0:50 utc | 407
canuck | Oct 20 2023 18:21 utc | 135
The Accountant | Oct 21 2023 6:03 utc | 155
Generally agree with canuck.
Accountant, you seem to be thinking about a closed economy, 19th C. style.
Many don’t seem to understand that countries (CBs) can always print currency and thus buy their own debt, but they cannot print demand for that currency. Which isn’t a problem for exporter Japan, but for the US with its huge current account deficit, it is. It needs constant outside demand for $ (c. 1 tn/ year), i.e. exporters willing to save in $ rather than local or other currency.
There’s a third option for the US besides the two you mention: Destroy other currencies to create more external demand for $/ places for expansion of $ capital.
Posted by: smuks | Oct 22 2023 0:50 utc | 408
From INTERCEPTION (Z) telegram channel….
https://t.me/dvesti22/32082
The daily need for all types of supplies for the Banderaites sitting in Avdeevka is hundreds of tons, closer to a thousand. After cutting the railway from the north, the typical means of delivery – and at the same time the unit of account – along the last remaining road will be a Gazelle-sized truck; the crests’ logistics support mainly depends on such civilian transport. Consequently, about – or even from – half a thousand flights per day are required. Roughly one every two minutes.
The road, I repeat, is the last one left. The distance to her from both fronts of the attack is such that she cannot help but be under constant surveillance. And they also cannot help but work purposefully on the goals identified on it. Therefore, I have very little faith in the possibility of successfully passing a calculated Gazelle along it every two minutes (and even more so successfully passing large columns).
We do not know what the size of the reserves accumulated in Avdeevka itself is according to the huge list of items. But regardless of their size, under the conditions of our offensive, these reserves are eaten up (and knocked out) many times faster than in a calm situation.
The conclusion from all that has been said is not even that Avdeevka is doomed, this is obvious without me, but that our command has the freedom, within wide limits, to decide what exact total price to take from the long-haired people for trying to cling to it at any cost. .
Given Avdeevka was the main source of shells targeting Donetsk and Gorlovka, I imagine the first
item not transported would be shells and powder for artillery, due to size and weight.
I also imagine the last item transported will be the wounded/killed.
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 22 2023 1:22 utc | 409
From INTERCEPTION (Z) telegram channel….
https://t.me/dvesti22/32082
The daily need for all types of supplies for the Banderaites sitting in Avdeevka is hundreds of tons, closer to a thousand. After cutting the railway from the north, the typical means of delivery – and at the same time the unit of account – along the last remaining road will be a Gazelle-sized truck; the crests’ logistics support mainly depends on such civilian transport. Consequently, about – or even from – half a thousand flights per day are required. Roughly one every two minutes.
The road, I repeat, is the last one left. The distance to her from both fronts of the attack is such that she cannot help but be under constant surveillance. And they also cannot help but work purposefully on the goals identified on it. Therefore, I have very little faith in the possibility of successfully passing a calculated Gazelle along it every two minutes (and even more so successfully passing large columns).
We do not know what the size of the reserves accumulated in Avdeevka itself is according to the huge list of items. But regardless of their size, under the conditions of our offensive, these reserves are eaten up (and knocked out) many times faster than in a calm situation.
The conclusion from all that has been said is not even that Avdeevka is doomed, this is obvious without me, but that our command has the freedom, within wide limits, to decide what exact total price to take from the long-haired people for trying to cling to it at any cost. .
Given Avdeevka was the main source of shells targeting Donetsk and Gorlovka, I imagine the first
item not transported would be shells and powder for artillery, due to size and weight.
I also imagine the last item transported will be the wounded/killed.
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 22 2023 1:22 utc | 410
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 20 2023 21:04 utc | 145
Quite a few critics of the book have pointed out its rather ‘generous’ interpretations of public statements to fit the authors thesis, ignorance of contradictory arguments and inversions of the Imperial power structure (diplomats having control over foreign policy, with the army acting as its servants). Few works, to my knowledge, have supported his revisionist thesis, which is surprising given the anti-American sentiment found in the halls of academia. An interesting alternate perspective, to the traditional accounts, but a far cry from an established ‘fact’.
Posted by: Milites | Oct 21 2023 0:14 utc | 147
One can only imagine that the critics you mention are “you, yourself, and your alter ego”.
Given the book is written by a Japanese scholar, who knows the culture intimately, and had access to imperial Japanese records, it would seem that we are not discussing the same book…
The book I refer to… “Racing the Enemy” has as it’s thesis a competition between the allied powers, US and USSR, over who would pluck the Japanese Home Islands first, and who would force capitulation of the Japanese, and when that capitulation would be recognized.
Soviet objectives during this period included recovery of the totality of Sakhalin Island, the entirety of the Kuriles, all of Manchuko, the north half of Korea, and Hokkaido…
That is, Stalin and the STAVKA sought to reverse Japanese gains made during the Russo-Japanese War.
Which they largely did.
While the USN sought to keep the Soviets out of the littoral of the Sea of Japan altogether..
The events depicted in this work created the geopolitical reality of the NW Pacific Rim today..
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 22 2023 1:36 utc | 411
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 20 2023 21:04 utc | 145
Quite a few critics of the book have pointed out its rather ‘generous’ interpretations of public statements to fit the authors thesis, ignorance of contradictory arguments and inversions of the Imperial power structure (diplomats having control over foreign policy, with the army acting as its servants). Few works, to my knowledge, have supported his revisionist thesis, which is surprising given the anti-American sentiment found in the halls of academia. An interesting alternate perspective, to the traditional accounts, but a far cry from an established ‘fact’.
Posted by: Milites | Oct 21 2023 0:14 utc | 147
One can only imagine that the critics you mention are “you, yourself, and your alter ego”.
Given the book is written by a Japanese scholar, who knows the culture intimately, and had access to imperial Japanese records, it would seem that we are not discussing the same book…
The book I refer to… “Racing the Enemy” has as it’s thesis a competition between the allied powers, US and USSR, over who would pluck the Japanese Home Islands first, and who would force capitulation of the Japanese, and when that capitulation would be recognized.
Soviet objectives during this period included recovery of the totality of Sakhalin Island, the entirety of the Kuriles, all of Manchuko, the north half of Korea, and Hokkaido…
That is, Stalin and the STAVKA sought to reverse Japanese gains made during the Russo-Japanese War.
Which they largely did.
While the USN sought to keep the Soviets out of the littoral of the Sea of Japan altogether..
The events depicted in this work created the geopolitical reality of the NW Pacific Rim today..
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 22 2023 1:36 utc | 412
Some videos for today.
Russian forces destroyed another US-supplied M777 howitzer near Artemovsk:
https://odysee.com/@YuBratNavas:f/VID_20231021_133537_502:9
Russian airborne forces shot down an enemy Mi-8 helicopter near Artemovsk:
https://odysee.com/@YuBratNavas:f/VID_20231021_074941_541:a
Russian Malka self-propelled howitzer in action:
https://rutube.ru/video/c43a0879d051f9ec2a2bb8e0ea1d4ce4/
Russian ATGM destroys Kiev regime armored personnel carrier:
https://rutube.ru/video/ffe1f07d7c21e1a20af9c2ebdb7f6455/
Russian airborne unit opened fire on attacking enemies near the DPR’s Artemovsk:
https://rutube.ru/video/43aabd7330b0d81699013bfc569defe3/
Russian drones continue hunting Kiev regime forces:
https://rutube.ru/video/1d0cc6d78c19cc83e580417f1580db7b/
Russian artillery pound enemy position:
https://rutube.ru/video/e1155d1abb1eb44cd61a35dde91f18ab/
Posted by: Nate | Oct 22 2023 2:34 utc | 413
Some videos for today.
Russian forces destroyed another US-supplied M777 howitzer near Artemovsk:
https://odysee.com/@YuBratNavas:f/VID_20231021_133537_502:9
Russian airborne forces shot down an enemy Mi-8 helicopter near Artemovsk:
https://odysee.com/@YuBratNavas:f/VID_20231021_074941_541:a
Russian Malka self-propelled howitzer in action:
https://rutube.ru/video/c43a0879d051f9ec2a2bb8e0ea1d4ce4/
Russian ATGM destroys Kiev regime armored personnel carrier:
https://rutube.ru/video/ffe1f07d7c21e1a20af9c2ebdb7f6455/
Russian airborne unit opened fire on attacking enemies near the DPR’s Artemovsk:
https://rutube.ru/video/43aabd7330b0d81699013bfc569defe3/
Russian drones continue hunting Kiev regime forces:
https://rutube.ru/video/1d0cc6d78c19cc83e580417f1580db7b/
Russian artillery pound enemy position:
https://rutube.ru/video/e1155d1abb1eb44cd61a35dde91f18ab/
Posted by: Nate | Oct 22 2023 2:34 utc | 414
An excellent review of “Racing the Enemy” and why everyone should read this work..
https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.4159/9780674038400/html
Hasegawa rewrites the history of the end of World War II in the Pacific by integrating the key actors in the story—the US, the USSR, and Japan. From April 1945, when Stalin broke the Soviet-Japanese Neutrality Pact and Truman assumed the presidency, to the final Soviet military actions against Japan, he reveals the real reasons Japan surrendered.
Reviews
Racing the Enemy is a tour de force -a lucid, balanced, multi-archival, myth-shattering analysis of the turbulent end of World War II. Tsuyoshi Hasegawa sheds fascinating new light on fiercely debated issues including the U.S.-Soviet end game in Asia, the American decision to drop the atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and Japan’s frantic response to the double shock of nuclear devastation and the Soviet Union’s abrupt declaration of war.
— John W. Dower, Pulitzer Prize-winning author of Embracing Defeat: Japan in the Wake of World War II
With this book, Tsuyoshi Hasegawa will establish himself as the expert on the end of the war in the Pacific. This important work will attract a wide readership.
— Ernest R. May, author of Strange Victory: Hitler’s Conquest of France
In summer 1945 Truman and his advisers set a foreign policy course that demanded American use of doomsday weapons not only against Japan but, indirectly, against humanity itself. In this groundbreaking book, Hasegawa argues that the atomic bombs were not as decisive in bringing about Japan’s unconditional surrender as Soviet entry into the Pacific War. His challenging study reveals the full significance of Truman’s decision not to associate Stalin with the Potsdam Declaration and offers fresh evidence of how Japan’s leaders viewed Stalin’s entrance into the war as the decisive factor. Others have shown that Truman missed opportunities to secure Japan’s unconditional surrender without an invasion or the nuclear destruction of Japanese cities. But few have so thoroughly documented the complex evasions and Machiavellism of Japanese, Russian, and, especially, American leaders in the process of war termination.
— Herbert P. Bix, Pulitzer Prize-winning author of Hirohito and the Making of Modern Japan
In this landmark study, Tsuyoshi Hasegawa gives us the first truly international history of the critical final months leading to Japan’s surrender. Absorbing and authoritative, provocative and fair-minded, Racing the Enemy is required reading for anyone interested in World War II and in twentieth-century world affairs. A marvelously illuminating work.
— Fredrik Logevall, author of Choosing War: The Lost Chance for Peace and the Escalation of War in Vietnam
The long debate among historians about American motives and Japanese efforts at ending World War II is finally resolved in Racing the Enemy, Tsuyoshi Hasegawa’s brilliant and definitive study of American, Soviet and Japanese records of the last weeks of the war.
— Richard Rhodes New York Times Book Review
Without doubt the best-informed book in English on Japanese and Soviet manoeuvres in the summer of 1945…[Hasegawa] provides an international context sorely missing from most previous work. He has mined Japanese and Russian literature and documentation and, despite much that is based on surmise, provides fresh insight into the extraordinary inability of Japanese leaders to surrender, and into Stalin’s machinations aimed at maximizing Soviet territorial gains in East Asia.
— Warren I. Cohen Times Literary Supplement
A landmark book that brilliantly examines a crucial moment in 20th-century history…[An] important, enlightening, and unsettling book.
— Jonathan Rosenberg Christian Science Monitor
The most comprehensive study yet undertaken of Japanese documentary sources. The highly praised study argues that the atomic bomb played only a secondary role in Japan’s decision to surrender. By far the most important factor, Hasegawa finds, was the entry of the Soviet Union into the war against Japan on Aug. 8, 1945, two days after the Hiroshima bombing.
— Gar Alperovitz Philadelphia Inquirer
One of the first to make a detailed study of the political interplay among the Soviet Union, Japan, and the United States in 1945.
— Alex Kingsbury U.S. News and World Report
As Tsuyoshi Hasegawa has shown definitively in his new book, Racing the Enemy–and many other historians have long argued–it was the Soviet Union’s entry into the Pacific war on Aug. 8, two days after the Hiroshima bombing, that provided the final ‘shock’ that led to Japan’s capitulation.
— Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherwin Los Angeles Times
[Racing the Enemy] might be called the definitive analysis of the U.S. decision to use atomic bombs at Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945. Professor Tsuyoshi Hasegawa of the University of California, Santa Barbara, has mined both Japanese and Soviet sources to produce the first truly international study of the Hiroshima decision.
— Errol MacGregor Clauss Winston-Salem Journal
Managing to convey the thought processes, assumptions and biases of the Imperial elite is Hasegawa’s greatest achievement…Hasegawa’s story is a weird, compelling one, and his case for revising our view of the leadup to VJ Day is overwhelming.
— John Dolan The Exile
Those who ignore the lessons of history…
Are….
Condemned to repeat them…..
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 22 2023 2:59 utc | 415
An excellent review of “Racing the Enemy” and why everyone should read this work..
https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.4159/9780674038400/html
Hasegawa rewrites the history of the end of World War II in the Pacific by integrating the key actors in the story—the US, the USSR, and Japan. From April 1945, when Stalin broke the Soviet-Japanese Neutrality Pact and Truman assumed the presidency, to the final Soviet military actions against Japan, he reveals the real reasons Japan surrendered.
Reviews
Racing the Enemy is a tour de force -a lucid, balanced, multi-archival, myth-shattering analysis of the turbulent end of World War II. Tsuyoshi Hasegawa sheds fascinating new light on fiercely debated issues including the U.S.-Soviet end game in Asia, the American decision to drop the atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and Japan’s frantic response to the double shock of nuclear devastation and the Soviet Union’s abrupt declaration of war.
— John W. Dower, Pulitzer Prize-winning author of Embracing Defeat: Japan in the Wake of World War II
With this book, Tsuyoshi Hasegawa will establish himself as the expert on the end of the war in the Pacific. This important work will attract a wide readership.
— Ernest R. May, author of Strange Victory: Hitler’s Conquest of France
In summer 1945 Truman and his advisers set a foreign policy course that demanded American use of doomsday weapons not only against Japan but, indirectly, against humanity itself. In this groundbreaking book, Hasegawa argues that the atomic bombs were not as decisive in bringing about Japan’s unconditional surrender as Soviet entry into the Pacific War. His challenging study reveals the full significance of Truman’s decision not to associate Stalin with the Potsdam Declaration and offers fresh evidence of how Japan’s leaders viewed Stalin’s entrance into the war as the decisive factor. Others have shown that Truman missed opportunities to secure Japan’s unconditional surrender without an invasion or the nuclear destruction of Japanese cities. But few have so thoroughly documented the complex evasions and Machiavellism of Japanese, Russian, and, especially, American leaders in the process of war termination.
— Herbert P. Bix, Pulitzer Prize-winning author of Hirohito and the Making of Modern Japan
In this landmark study, Tsuyoshi Hasegawa gives us the first truly international history of the critical final months leading to Japan’s surrender. Absorbing and authoritative, provocative and fair-minded, Racing the Enemy is required reading for anyone interested in World War II and in twentieth-century world affairs. A marvelously illuminating work.
— Fredrik Logevall, author of Choosing War: The Lost Chance for Peace and the Escalation of War in Vietnam
The long debate among historians about American motives and Japanese efforts at ending World War II is finally resolved in Racing the Enemy, Tsuyoshi Hasegawa’s brilliant and definitive study of American, Soviet and Japanese records of the last weeks of the war.
— Richard Rhodes New York Times Book Review
Without doubt the best-informed book in English on Japanese and Soviet manoeuvres in the summer of 1945…[Hasegawa] provides an international context sorely missing from most previous work. He has mined Japanese and Russian literature and documentation and, despite much that is based on surmise, provides fresh insight into the extraordinary inability of Japanese leaders to surrender, and into Stalin’s machinations aimed at maximizing Soviet territorial gains in East Asia.
— Warren I. Cohen Times Literary Supplement
A landmark book that brilliantly examines a crucial moment in 20th-century history…[An] important, enlightening, and unsettling book.
— Jonathan Rosenberg Christian Science Monitor
The most comprehensive study yet undertaken of Japanese documentary sources. The highly praised study argues that the atomic bomb played only a secondary role in Japan’s decision to surrender. By far the most important factor, Hasegawa finds, was the entry of the Soviet Union into the war against Japan on Aug. 8, 1945, two days after the Hiroshima bombing.
— Gar Alperovitz Philadelphia Inquirer
One of the first to make a detailed study of the political interplay among the Soviet Union, Japan, and the United States in 1945.
— Alex Kingsbury U.S. News and World Report
As Tsuyoshi Hasegawa has shown definitively in his new book, Racing the Enemy–and many other historians have long argued–it was the Soviet Union’s entry into the Pacific war on Aug. 8, two days after the Hiroshima bombing, that provided the final ‘shock’ that led to Japan’s capitulation.
— Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherwin Los Angeles Times
[Racing the Enemy] might be called the definitive analysis of the U.S. decision to use atomic bombs at Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945. Professor Tsuyoshi Hasegawa of the University of California, Santa Barbara, has mined both Japanese and Soviet sources to produce the first truly international study of the Hiroshima decision.
— Errol MacGregor Clauss Winston-Salem Journal
Managing to convey the thought processes, assumptions and biases of the Imperial elite is Hasegawa’s greatest achievement…Hasegawa’s story is a weird, compelling one, and his case for revising our view of the leadup to VJ Day is overwhelming.
— John Dolan The Exile
Those who ignore the lessons of history…
Are….
Condemned to repeat them…..
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 22 2023 2:59 utc | 416
Lol at “healthy,” but a grim warning the DC Mob are preparing to pour a fresh tsunami of taxes/debt down the throat of the MIC:
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-10-15/putin-says-suggestions-of-u-s-war-against-russia-and-china-are-nonsense
There have been umpteen–the figure I keep seeing is thirty–NATO war-games over the last couple of decades of a NATO-RF conflict–
And NATO lost every one.
Yet NATO is now going to take on the RF and PRC simultaneously? gimme a break.
All this is just another multigiga raid on Treasury, and if some actual blood is needed to lubricate the appropriation procedure, the DC Mob is always willing to oblige.
Posted by: John Kennard | Oct 22 2023 5:52 utc | 417
Lol at “healthy,” but a grim warning the DC Mob are preparing to pour a fresh tsunami of taxes/debt down the throat of the MIC:
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-10-15/putin-says-suggestions-of-u-s-war-against-russia-and-china-are-nonsense
There have been umpteen–the figure I keep seeing is thirty–NATO war-games over the last couple of decades of a NATO-RF conflict–
And NATO lost every one.
Yet NATO is now going to take on the RF and PRC simultaneously? gimme a break.
All this is just another multigiga raid on Treasury, and if some actual blood is needed to lubricate the appropriation procedure, the DC Mob is always willing to oblige.
Posted by: John Kennard | Oct 22 2023 5:52 utc | 418
Posted by: anon | Oct 21 2023 15:41 utc | 181
A gas pipeline and a telecoms cable linking Sweden, Finland and Estonia have just blown up.
………
hey daydreamer, this happened already 13 days ago
https://tass.com/world/1687949
Posted by: alek_a | Oct 21 2023 16:43 utc | 187
as anwser to Posted by: anon | Oct 21 2023 15:41 utc | 181
If that is true, taken together with the – also unconfirmed –
attack on the US aircraft carrier….
first : for you –> see above
second: since when is the USS Carney a aircraft carrier ?
cnn and abcnews from 20.10.2023:
….Ryder said the Pentagon cannot say for certain at this point what the missiles and drones
were targeting, but said they were launched from Yemen and were heading north along the Red Sea,
“potentially toward targets in Israel.”
…Their trajectory left little doubt that the projectiles were headed for Israel, the official said,
a clearer assessment than the Pentagon’s initial take.
What world do you both live in?
Posted by: ghiwen | Oct 22 2023 8:38 utc | 419
Posted by: anon | Oct 21 2023 15:41 utc | 181
A gas pipeline and a telecoms cable linking Sweden, Finland and Estonia have just blown up.
………
hey daydreamer, this happened already 13 days ago
https://tass.com/world/1687949
Posted by: alek_a | Oct 21 2023 16:43 utc | 187
as anwser to Posted by: anon | Oct 21 2023 15:41 utc | 181
If that is true, taken together with the – also unconfirmed –
attack on the US aircraft carrier….
first : for you –> see above
second: since when is the USS Carney a aircraft carrier ?
cnn and abcnews from 20.10.2023:
….Ryder said the Pentagon cannot say for certain at this point what the missiles and drones
were targeting, but said they were launched from Yemen and were heading north along the Red Sea,
“potentially toward targets in Israel.”
…Their trajectory left little doubt that the projectiles were headed for Israel, the official said,
a clearer assessment than the Pentagon’s initial take.
What world do you both live in?
Posted by: ghiwen | Oct 22 2023 8:38 utc | 420
Posted by: ghiwen | Oct 22 2023 8:38 utc | 210
I live in the world where snippets of information leaked for a certain purpose does not make a story. Thats why I say unconfirmed.
That Yemeni rebels have long range 1000km+ capabilities is rater dubious, ya? And also if they flew along the red sea it will mean they are not simple ballistics but have navigation. Even more improbable.
And right on cue today we hear that China has sent warships and the US doubles down with assets.
Its about control of the region after the US has been challenged.
Posted by: alek_a | Oct 22 2023 9:00 utc | 421
Posted by: ghiwen | Oct 22 2023 8:38 utc | 210
I live in the world where snippets of information leaked for a certain purpose does not make a story. Thats why I say unconfirmed.
That Yemeni rebels have long range 1000km+ capabilities is rater dubious, ya? And also if they flew along the red sea it will mean they are not simple ballistics but have navigation. Even more improbable.
And right on cue today we hear that China has sent warships and the US doubles down with assets.
Its about control of the region after the US has been challenged.
Posted by: alek_a | Oct 22 2023 9:00 utc | 422
I’m puzzled by the double standard of most of you in this forum. Ukraine has been shelling Russian speakers in Donbass and was preparing to invade, and most here feel that was sufficient justification for Russia to launch the SMO to defend and protect Russians. Israel has been under sporadic rocket attack and just lost one thousand citizens or more to an armed incursion and most of you are strongly denouncing Israel for it’s military response. What gives? Seems like a disconnect in your logic, no?
Posted by: Paranaense | Oct 22 2023 10:06 utc | 423
I’m puzzled by the double standard of most of you in this forum. Ukraine has been shelling Russian speakers in Donbass and was preparing to invade, and most here feel that was sufficient justification for Russia to launch the SMO to defend and protect Russians. Israel has been under sporadic rocket attack and just lost one thousand citizens or more to an armed incursion and most of you are strongly denouncing Israel for it’s military response. What gives? Seems like a disconnect in your logic, no?
Posted by: Paranaense | Oct 22 2023 10:06 utc | 424
Posted by: Paranaense | Oct 22 2023 10:06 utc | 212
Russia didnt get all medieval on Ukrainian cities from blind rage. Thats one difference.
And, Israel is seen in here as the last colonial state of the West so they dont really have a moral foot to stand on from the get go. Kind of like white apartheid minority in South Africa half a century ago.
Posted by: alek_a | Oct 22 2023 10:15 utc | 425
Posted by: Paranaense | Oct 22 2023 10:06 utc | 212
Russia didnt get all medieval on Ukrainian cities from blind rage. Thats one difference.
And, Israel is seen in here as the last colonial state of the West so they dont really have a moral foot to stand on from the get go. Kind of like white apartheid minority in South Africa half a century ago.
Posted by: alek_a | Oct 22 2023 10:15 utc | 426
Southfront report of Ukraine’s attempts to cross Dniepr.
RUAF managed to repel the initial AFU bridgeheads, and they have also managed to identify AFU accumulations on the opposite bank of the river and bomb those too.
A few recent reports from today and yesterday claim the AFU attempted to land along a railway bridge, but that was disrupted with bombs. Apparently there is close combat in Krynky, east of Kozachi Laheri, AFU is kicked out but tries to cling on to outskirts to maintain a bridgehead. AFU transfers engineering and bridging equipment to the opposite shore.
https://southfront.press/ukraine-launches-offensive-in-kherson-region/
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 22 2023 10:31 utc | 427
Southfront report of Ukraine’s attempts to cross Dniepr.
RUAF managed to repel the initial AFU bridgeheads, and they have also managed to identify AFU accumulations on the opposite bank of the river and bomb those too.
A few recent reports from today and yesterday claim the AFU attempted to land along a railway bridge, but that was disrupted with bombs. Apparently there is close combat in Krynky, east of Kozachi Laheri, AFU is kicked out but tries to cling on to outskirts to maintain a bridgehead. AFU transfers engineering and bridging equipment to the opposite shore.
https://southfront.press/ukraine-launches-offensive-in-kherson-region/
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 22 2023 10:31 utc | 428
Military summary October 21-22:
22nd
-AFU attack toward Novopokrovka from Rabotyne with tanks, hard to tell overall but ATGM is working
-AFU attack toward Verbove seems stalled the trenches are not very deep in this direction (probably due to repeated bombardment), RUAF use lot of small drones against infantry
-RUAF deployed most experienced forces to Avdeevka, so AFU tries to use this to advantage. Of course, AFU has also deployed most of its experienced forces to Avdeevka evening things out
-AFU attack near Priyutne with infantry disrupted
-Heavy 240mm Tulip artillery with new type of shells used in Urozhaine direction, which seems effective against dugouts
-RUAF make some progress in Maryinka, north of the water reservoir
21st
-Waste heap in Avdeevka seems very slow going, RUAF is trying to dig tunnels westward
-AFU concentrates forces in Karlivka with the intention to attack RU west flank toward Pisky
-AFU attempted to use its MiG-29s to gain superiority around Avdeevka and apparently lost – RUAF claimed 9 downed MiG-29 in a week
-AFU launched revenge attacks on Donetsk city with Himars and cluster munitions – there are hits, some are claimed to be downed with EW equipment
-AFU AFV convoy east of Robotyne hit with ATGMS
-AFU concentrated significant number of forces north and north-east in trenches of Kopani
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 22 2023 11:01 utc | 429
Military summary October 21-22:
22nd
-AFU attack toward Novopokrovka from Rabotyne with tanks, hard to tell overall but ATGM is working
-AFU attack toward Verbove seems stalled the trenches are not very deep in this direction (probably due to repeated bombardment), RUAF use lot of small drones against infantry
-RUAF deployed most experienced forces to Avdeevka, so AFU tries to use this to advantage. Of course, AFU has also deployed most of its experienced forces to Avdeevka evening things out
-AFU attack near Priyutne with infantry disrupted
-Heavy 240mm Tulip artillery with new type of shells used in Urozhaine direction, which seems effective against dugouts
-RUAF make some progress in Maryinka, north of the water reservoir
21st
-Waste heap in Avdeevka seems very slow going, RUAF is trying to dig tunnels westward
-AFU concentrates forces in Karlivka with the intention to attack RU west flank toward Pisky
-AFU attempted to use its MiG-29s to gain superiority around Avdeevka and apparently lost – RUAF claimed 9 downed MiG-29 in a week
-AFU launched revenge attacks on Donetsk city with Himars and cluster munitions – there are hits, some are claimed to be downed with EW equipment
-AFU AFV convoy east of Robotyne hit with ATGMS
-AFU concentrated significant number of forces north and north-east in trenches of Kopani
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 22 2023 11:01 utc | 430
The Russian military struck the railway station in Konstantinovka at night, military correspondent Andrei Rudenko has reported.According to his data, a train with AFU reserves and ammunition arrived at the station at the time of the attack. As a result, the enemy suffered heavy losses in killed and wounded, the publication said.
In early October, the aviation of the “Southern” group of the Russian Armed Forces struck an AFU warehouse in the town of Konstantinovka in the DNR. The Russian Defence Ministry reported that the Ukrainian military had been hiding weapons and military equipment there.
Grüße
Posted by: Oberbayer | Oct 22 2023 11:07 utc | 431
The Russian military struck the railway station in Konstantinovka at night, military correspondent Andrei Rudenko has reported.According to his data, a train with AFU reserves and ammunition arrived at the station at the time of the attack. As a result, the enemy suffered heavy losses in killed and wounded, the publication said.
In early October, the aviation of the “Southern” group of the Russian Armed Forces struck an AFU warehouse in the town of Konstantinovka in the DNR. The Russian Defence Ministry reported that the Ukrainian military had been hiding weapons and military equipment there.
Grüße
Posted by: Oberbayer | Oct 22 2023 11:07 utc | 432
Posted by: alek_a | Oct 22 2023 9:00 utc | 211
alek , what is this?
my comment (Posted by: ghiwen | Oct 22 2023 8:38 utc | 210) clearly consists of 2 parts
1. about the time of the damage to the baltic pipe
2. about the interception of missiles and drones
to point 1:
YOU wrote “…If that is true … ” Regarding the statement by ANON
BUT this event happened already 13 days ago
Are you saying that you have NOT heard of it?
to point 2:
– b asks to provide FACTS !
– as my “quotes” from MSM show , not even they claim an “attack” on a carrier group
where is your FACT?
Posted by: ghiwen | Oct 22 2023 11:08 utc | 433
Posted by: alek_a | Oct 22 2023 9:00 utc | 211
alek , what is this?
my comment (Posted by: ghiwen | Oct 22 2023 8:38 utc | 210) clearly consists of 2 parts
1. about the time of the damage to the baltic pipe
2. about the interception of missiles and drones
to point 1:
YOU wrote “…If that is true … ” Regarding the statement by ANON
BUT this event happened already 13 days ago
Are you saying that you have NOT heard of it?
to point 2:
– b asks to provide FACTS !
– as my “quotes” from MSM show , not even they claim an “attack” on a carrier group
where is your FACT?
Posted by: ghiwen | Oct 22 2023 11:08 utc | 434
Posted by: Paranaense | Oct 22 2023 10:06 utc | 212
Double standards? Disconnect in logic? Now thats rich!
Ignoring everything that lead to both instances. Typical.
Goebbels would be proud.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Oct 22 2023 11:29 utc | 435
Posted by: Paranaense | Oct 22 2023 10:06 utc | 212
Double standards? Disconnect in logic? Now thats rich!
Ignoring everything that lead to both instances. Typical.
Goebbels would be proud.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Oct 22 2023 11:29 utc | 436
Posted by: newbie | Oct 21 2023 21:00 utc | 196
Keep up the informative posts.
Posted by: horseguards | Oct 22 2023 11:29 utc | 437
Posted by: newbie | Oct 21 2023 21:00 utc | 196
Keep up the informative posts.
Posted by: horseguards | Oct 22 2023 11:29 utc | 438
“Anyone linking Russia’s fate to the Ruble exchange rates needs to understand that the lower the ruble is the better for the Russian military. They pay salaries and purchase weapons in Rubles. Their revenue comes from commodity sales in non-Ruble currencies. Lower Ruble exchange rate means more Rubles for every increment sold externally which means more Rubles to spend on salaries, weapons, etc. If Russia hadn’t already been disconnected from the rest of the world via sanctions this would result in extra inflation but they are autarkic now so only consumers buying foreign goods are affected by inflation. Also they are used to 10%+ inflation already and their economy is absolutely booming rn so this is actually a virtuous cycle: the lower the ruble goes the more local producers and the govt/military benefit.”
Posted by: AHB | Oct 19 2023 20:24 utc | 59
Excellent analysis I would add one more element to your idea: as the ruble’s value depreciates against foreign currencies the price for Russians buying foreign goods goes up dissuading them from those purchases and, consequently, purchasing more Russian made goods.
“Anyone linking Russia’s fate to the Ruble exchange rates needs to understand that the lower the ruble is the better for the Russian military. They pay salaries and purchase weapons in Rubles. Their revenue comes from commodity sales in non-Ruble currencies. Lower Ruble exchange rate means more Rubles for every increment sold externally which means more Rubles to spend on salaries, weapons, etc. If Russia hadn’t already been disconnected from the rest of the world via sanctions this would result in extra inflation but they are autarkic now so only consumers buying foreign goods are affected by inflation. Also they are used to 10%+ inflation already and their economy is absolutely booming rn so this is actually a virtuous cycle: the lower the ruble goes the more local producers and the govt/military benefit.”
Posted by: AHB | Oct 19 2023 20:24 utc | 59
Excellent analysis I would add one more element to your idea: as the ruble’s value depreciates against foreign currencies the price for Russians buying foreign goods goes up dissuading them from those purchases and, consequently, purchasing more Russian made goods.
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 22 2023 2:59 utc | 208
Japanese archives or Daily Briefings of a fuck-wit haberdasher from Kansas?
Posted by: horseguards | Oct 22 2023 11:44 utc | 441
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 22 2023 2:59 utc | 208
Japanese archives or Daily Briefings of a fuck-wit haberdasher from Kansas?
Posted by: horseguards | Oct 22 2023 11:44 utc | 442
Wagner’s Umbrella Division….
https://colonelcassad-livejournal-com.translate.goog/8719217.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en
An interesting detail that I didn’t know about before. Friends from Wagner had not mentioned her before. It turns out that during the assault on Artemovsk, an Umbrella unit existed and operated, which consisted of patients with hepatitis C and AIDS. They fought like everyone else.
I’ll take it from the comments that the guys, when asked what Umbrella is, answered in such a way that it’s better not to say.
Photo also from the comments – a set of awards from a veteran of the Project.
“Umbrella is a separate unit of HIV and hepatitis people. They really fought separately, but not for some reason, but only because if they were wounded they would not infect a healthy person.. There, on the Front, there was no way to tourniquet and bandage something with gloves disinfect.. Prigozhin and Wagner did not deceive us in anything. And they did not begin to dispose of us, as intended by those who gave the go-ahead for Project K. We fought to the fullest – Yes. But we fought. And this War so washed the head and the Soul, which was previously impossible to imagine.. Wagner is not a division, not a brand, not even a way of life. This is already an Ideology and State of Mind…”
https://t.me/quantumad/280 – zinc
The men also made their contribution, despite for serious illnesses. Peace to the ashes of the dead and thanks to those who survived and won.
They made a place for the incurable…
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 22 2023 11:47 utc | 443
Wagner’s Umbrella Division….
https://colonelcassad-livejournal-com.translate.goog/8719217.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en
An interesting detail that I didn’t know about before. Friends from Wagner had not mentioned her before. It turns out that during the assault on Artemovsk, an Umbrella unit existed and operated, which consisted of patients with hepatitis C and AIDS. They fought like everyone else.
I’ll take it from the comments that the guys, when asked what Umbrella is, answered in such a way that it’s better not to say.
Photo also from the comments – a set of awards from a veteran of the Project.
“Umbrella is a separate unit of HIV and hepatitis people. They really fought separately, but not for some reason, but only because if they were wounded they would not infect a healthy person.. There, on the Front, there was no way to tourniquet and bandage something with gloves disinfect.. Prigozhin and Wagner did not deceive us in anything. And they did not begin to dispose of us, as intended by those who gave the go-ahead for Project K. We fought to the fullest – Yes. But we fought. And this War so washed the head and the Soul, which was previously impossible to imagine.. Wagner is not a division, not a brand, not even a way of life. This is already an Ideology and State of Mind…”
https://t.me/quantumad/280 – zinc
The men also made their contribution, despite for serious illnesses. Peace to the ashes of the dead and thanks to those who survived and won.
They made a place for the incurable…
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 22 2023 11:47 utc | 444
Today, around 10 o’clock in the morning, in the vicinity of the New York (Donbass) settlement, Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), our aviation, consisting of 6 aircraft, conducted an operation.
In this location, there was an underground fortification, where up to 150 enemy personnel were present at the same time. This shelter served as a gathering place for the Ukrainian Armed Forces before rotation.
The Aerospace Forces consistently deal blows to the enemy’s reserves. The reconnaissance has performed more than excellently.
https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1716057896998384081
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 22 2023 12:07 utc | 445
Today, around 10 o’clock in the morning, in the vicinity of the New York (Donbass) settlement, Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), our aviation, consisting of 6 aircraft, conducted an operation.
In this location, there was an underground fortification, where up to 150 enemy personnel were present at the same time. This shelter served as a gathering place for the Ukrainian Armed Forces before rotation.
The Aerospace Forces consistently deal blows to the enemy’s reserves. The reconnaissance has performed more than excellently.
https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1716057896998384081
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 22 2023 12:07 utc | 446
Posted by: alek_a @ 213
Your claim that Israel is a colonial outpost doesn’t wash. They have been there since about 1200 BC. And I have seen on this forum many times that war is war. There’s no such thing as a moral war, a civilized war. The basic question is whether a country has the right to defend it’s citizens, control it’s borders and fight off it’s enemies. Why is the answer to that question yes in the case of Russia but no in the case of Israel. That’s where I see the disconnect.
Posted by: Paranaense | Oct 22 2023 13:09 utc | 447
Posted by: alek_a @ 213
Your claim that Israel is a colonial outpost doesn’t wash. They have been there since about 1200 BC. And I have seen on this forum many times that war is war. There’s no such thing as a moral war, a civilized war. The basic question is whether a country has the right to defend it’s citizens, control it’s borders and fight off it’s enemies. Why is the answer to that question yes in the case of Russia but no in the case of Israel. That’s where I see the disconnect.
Posted by: Paranaense | Oct 22 2023 13:09 utc | 448
Posted by: Paranaense | Oct 22 2023 13:09 utc | 224
I was talking about how most of the posters here see Israel. Myself I am a bit ambivalent in the Israel-Palestine case. Can not justify neither massacres on both ends.
I think that if we in the West have no influence in the ME, we shall be blackmailed with energy and the countries there are not known to have a compatible worldview with us. Quite on the contrary.
On the other hand, the methods used by the West to exert that influence are colonial in nature (proxies, divide and rule) and are bound to fail at a certain point when the ME countries attain sufficient industrial sophistication.
At the moment the West is so far gone down the credibility drain in ME, especially the US, that even the multipolarity concept of Russia has no value to us here. Trump tried to place some real politik agreements in that general direction but his dubious replacement is going backwards towards the old system of neo colonial rule (satisfy them materially but no freedom).
The core of the matter is that the current leadership in the US, largely bipartisan, likes to see the muslim brotherhood as a partner that they can have a relationship with as a whole in the ME. Others and the population of the more industrious nations there do not want them on the other hand.
Israel has little to do with all this although they are part and parcel of the Western worldview in a place that is frankly sick of it.
And Israel does indeed have the right to defend itself from nasty terrorists, just like Russia had to do in Chechenia some years ago.
Israel has btw not existed for so long, I believe 1946. They settled there after the exodus in WW2 and are still doing that on a land that is not really theirs. Yes they buy it but also the European colonists did that with the native Americans in between periods of exterminating them.
Ukraine has really little claim of souveregnity on the eastern provinces that are for all purposes people with Russian prominence. Note that Ukraine is a country from the mid 90s, they never existed as such before. The claim of territory in the Crimea by some politicians in Kiev 1000s of km away is rather weak.
That the Western world likes to see Ukraine as a monolitic country with a long nation state is a lie. It is just convenient for their designs of expansion of the liberal sphere of influence which in practice almost always leads to conflict due to the inherent colonial-racist bias of the people in the West. They cant help it after almost 1000 years being on the winning side so one will start believing own superiority. And preaching equity/critical theory at the same time, a nice contradiction.
Historically, neither Ukraine nor Israel have solid claims to exists today although Israel has a good reason i.e. the holocaust. But does that excuse simply colonizing a peace of other peoples land?
Posted by: alek_a | Oct 22 2023 14:15 utc | 449
Posted by: Paranaense | Oct 22 2023 13:09 utc | 224
I was talking about how most of the posters here see Israel. Myself I am a bit ambivalent in the Israel-Palestine case. Can not justify neither massacres on both ends.
I think that if we in the West have no influence in the ME, we shall be blackmailed with energy and the countries there are not known to have a compatible worldview with us. Quite on the contrary.
On the other hand, the methods used by the West to exert that influence are colonial in nature (proxies, divide and rule) and are bound to fail at a certain point when the ME countries attain sufficient industrial sophistication.
At the moment the West is so far gone down the credibility drain in ME, especially the US, that even the multipolarity concept of Russia has no value to us here. Trump tried to place some real politik agreements in that general direction but his dubious replacement is going backwards towards the old system of neo colonial rule (satisfy them materially but no freedom).
The core of the matter is that the current leadership in the US, largely bipartisan, likes to see the muslim brotherhood as a partner that they can have a relationship with as a whole in the ME. Others and the population of the more industrious nations there do not want them on the other hand.
Israel has little to do with all this although they are part and parcel of the Western worldview in a place that is frankly sick of it.
And Israel does indeed have the right to defend itself from nasty terrorists, just like Russia had to do in Chechenia some years ago.
Israel has btw not existed for so long, I believe 1946. They settled there after the exodus in WW2 and are still doing that on a land that is not really theirs. Yes they buy it but also the European colonists did that with the native Americans in between periods of exterminating them.
Ukraine has really little claim of souveregnity on the eastern provinces that are for all purposes people with Russian prominence. Note that Ukraine is a country from the mid 90s, they never existed as such before. The claim of territory in the Crimea by some politicians in Kiev 1000s of km away is rather weak.
That the Western world likes to see Ukraine as a monolitic country with a long nation state is a lie. It is just convenient for their designs of expansion of the liberal sphere of influence which in practice almost always leads to conflict due to the inherent colonial-racist bias of the people in the West. They cant help it after almost 1000 years being on the winning side so one will start believing own superiority. And preaching equity/critical theory at the same time, a nice contradiction.
Historically, neither Ukraine nor Israel have solid claims to exists today although Israel has a good reason i.e. the holocaust. But does that excuse simply colonizing a peace of other peoples land?
Posted by: alek_a | Oct 22 2023 14:15 utc | 450
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 22 2023 11:01 utc | 215
The Smel’chak guided round for the 240mm Tyulpan mortar system has been around since the 80’s. Deployed against Mujahadeen cave entrances and later Chechen strongpoints it proved highly effective. Dima has been outdoing himself recently with his mixture of mercurial, hyperbolic analytics, stitched together from Telegram clips and top of his head interpretations of official statements from both sides. It seems that some YouTube commentators are studiously trying to impose on this conflict a character it does not possess, and that both sides often try to avoid, due to the realities of 21st century warfare.
Posted by: Milites | Oct 22 2023 14:19 utc | 451
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 22 2023 11:01 utc | 215
The Smel’chak guided round for the 240mm Tyulpan mortar system has been around since the 80’s. Deployed against Mujahadeen cave entrances and later Chechen strongpoints it proved highly effective. Dima has been outdoing himself recently with his mixture of mercurial, hyperbolic analytics, stitched together from Telegram clips and top of his head interpretations of official statements from both sides. It seems that some YouTube commentators are studiously trying to impose on this conflict a character it does not possess, and that both sides often try to avoid, due to the realities of 21st century warfare.
Posted by: Milites | Oct 22 2023 14:19 utc | 452
Posted by: Paranaense | Oct 22 2023 13:09 utc | 224
Under the deliberately convoluted theology of Marxist doctrine, that many of its acolytes don’t really seem to understand themselves , only certain races have oppressed rights, based on a mercurial index that always favours the ideologically favoured. Hence native populations can legitimately be displaced violently and replaced, whilst on other occasions the occupiers can never be accepted. Similarly, certain faiths can be subjected to ridicule and logical positivist deconstruction, but others immediately accepted as giving these believers legitimate reasons for territorial claims.
It’s all very confusing, but then the intellectual incoherence of modern leftist thought is a feature not a bug, something I realised as I grew older and the reason for my desertion to the ‘other side’. It’s certainly not perfect over here, but at least we don’t have to regularly rewrite the dictionary or cancel our opponents to win debates. Oh, and we can laugh at ourselves, using humour for one of its intended purposes, as a universal leveller, not a precision weapon against the ‘unclean’ of thought.
Posted by: Milites | Oct 22 2023 15:14 utc | 453
Posted by: Paranaense | Oct 22 2023 13:09 utc | 224
Under the deliberately convoluted theology of Marxist doctrine, that many of its acolytes don’t really seem to understand themselves , only certain races have oppressed rights, based on a mercurial index that always favours the ideologically favoured. Hence native populations can legitimately be displaced violently and replaced, whilst on other occasions the occupiers can never be accepted. Similarly, certain faiths can be subjected to ridicule and logical positivist deconstruction, but others immediately accepted as giving these believers legitimate reasons for territorial claims.
It’s all very confusing, but then the intellectual incoherence of modern leftist thought is a feature not a bug, something I realised as I grew older and the reason for my desertion to the ‘other side’. It’s certainly not perfect over here, but at least we don’t have to regularly rewrite the dictionary or cancel our opponents to win debates. Oh, and we can laugh at ourselves, using humour for one of its intended purposes, as a universal leveller, not a precision weapon against the ‘unclean’ of thought.
Posted by: Milites | Oct 22 2023 15:14 utc | 454
Posted by: newbie | Oct 21 2023 21:00 utc | 196
Keep up the informative posts.
Posted by: horseguards | Oct 22 2023 11:29 utc | 219
Thank you there is little information from the test tube (Avdeevka) but the little information that has trickled allows for some speculation:
1. The 9 mig-29 the AFU lost and the news about heavy bombing seems to indicate AFU finally lost most of its air defence and is desperate enough to use planes even to lose them. Wonder how they’re faring in pilots
2. Taking the offensive means abandoning 8-1 ratios, the question is how high they can be kept, as I mentioned there is little information but tank-wise there is talk of 3-1. If it is translatable to troops it is still short. If RF wants to close the operation in time for new year (and within a 70.000 KIA budget), a 5-1 ratio has to be sustained throughout the final push.
3. The test tube should be roughly at 1/3 of start of SMO level. If it works the next 2 months should be at 2/3 of first week of SMO levels. Carnage as not seen since. Almost 3 times Bakhmut worst month.
4. for those 60 days appart from 10.000 shells a day from north korea RF will need 2 or 3 times that from their own wharehouses and/or heavier usage of air-force bombing
5. If this endgame comes to fruition it ends with around 800.000 KIA AFU, 1.400.000 WIA AFU (almost 1.000.000 of which invalides), with virtualy not a single able fighting man left…more than 130.000 RF KIA (and as many maimed ) will be the price. Almost 3.000.000 lives destroyed for something that couldn’t end otherwise, only sooner and magnitudes less bloody.
6. The ratio of 1-5 is needed in case AFU throws more untrained meat at the end. That leads us to the last question. What will nato do in november, as the offensive expands and the first numbers are crunched the projections will show the same (or much better) than this simulation. One last dance? Nowhere did I mention huge flag movements, just cauldron after cauldron being closed and baked until there is no line of defense and the way to Odesa and kiev lie open and the cities unguarded, the advantage is no huge target to tempt tactical nukes so one might hope no additional folly from nato.
As usual, feel free to counterpoint any assumption or details on calculations. Most of all, any fresh input is welcome, this is only the projection I can do with available data.
Posted by: newbie | Oct 22 2023 15:38 utc | 455
Posted by: newbie | Oct 21 2023 21:00 utc | 196
Keep up the informative posts.
Posted by: horseguards | Oct 22 2023 11:29 utc | 219
Thank you there is little information from the test tube (Avdeevka) but the little information that has trickled allows for some speculation:
1. The 9 mig-29 the AFU lost and the news about heavy bombing seems to indicate AFU finally lost most of its air defence and is desperate enough to use planes even to lose them. Wonder how they’re faring in pilots
2. Taking the offensive means abandoning 8-1 ratios, the question is how high they can be kept, as I mentioned there is little information but tank-wise there is talk of 3-1. If it is translatable to troops it is still short. If RF wants to close the operation in time for new year (and within a 70.000 KIA budget), a 5-1 ratio has to be sustained throughout the final push.
3. The test tube should be roughly at 1/3 of start of SMO level. If it works the next 2 months should be at 2/3 of first week of SMO levels. Carnage as not seen since. Almost 3 times Bakhmut worst month.
4. for those 60 days appart from 10.000 shells a day from north korea RF will need 2 or 3 times that from their own wharehouses and/or heavier usage of air-force bombing
5. If this endgame comes to fruition it ends with around 800.000 KIA AFU, 1.400.000 WIA AFU (almost 1.000.000 of which invalides), with virtualy not a single able fighting man left…more than 130.000 RF KIA (and as many maimed ) will be the price. Almost 3.000.000 lives destroyed for something that couldn’t end otherwise, only sooner and magnitudes less bloody.
6. The ratio of 1-5 is needed in case AFU throws more untrained meat at the end. That leads us to the last question. What will nato do in november, as the offensive expands and the first numbers are crunched the projections will show the same (or much better) than this simulation. One last dance? Nowhere did I mention huge flag movements, just cauldron after cauldron being closed and baked until there is no line of defense and the way to Odesa and kiev lie open and the cities unguarded, the advantage is no huge target to tempt tactical nukes so one might hope no additional folly from nato.
As usual, feel free to counterpoint any assumption or details on calculations. Most of all, any fresh input is welcome, this is only the projection I can do with available data.
Posted by: newbie | Oct 22 2023 15:38 utc | 456
It’s all very confusing, but then the intellectual incoherence of modern leftist thought is a feature not a bug, something I realised as I grew older and the reason for my desertion to the ‘other side’. It’s certainly not perfect over here, but at least we don’t have to regularly rewrite the dictionary or cancel our opponents to win debates. Oh, and we can laugh at ourselves, using humour for one of its intended purposes, as a universal leveller, not a precision weapon against the ‘unclean’ of thought.
Posted by: Milites | Oct 22 2023 15:14 utc | 227
I understand what you are saying but it only applies to “intellectual left”, and not modern, it ws always a feature.
I am , and never was on the marxist field, and do agree that our side doesn’t have to twist its spine and sacrifice intelligence to make an argument and we still find the time for some incorrect humor to liven up things.
Yet I never denied some of the valid critics that marx, particularly on capital concentration and inevitable effects, only wished he had written less and less boringly on the subject and had kept the direction of socioeconomic evolution to a sci-fi book, the truth is circles all the way down.
my 2 cents
But maybe we should take this discussion to the non-ukraine, non-palestine thread
Posted by: newbie | Oct 22 2023 15:48 utc | 457
It’s all very confusing, but then the intellectual incoherence of modern leftist thought is a feature not a bug, something I realised as I grew older and the reason for my desertion to the ‘other side’. It’s certainly not perfect over here, but at least we don’t have to regularly rewrite the dictionary or cancel our opponents to win debates. Oh, and we can laugh at ourselves, using humour for one of its intended purposes, as a universal leveller, not a precision weapon against the ‘unclean’ of thought.
Posted by: Milites | Oct 22 2023 15:14 utc | 227
I understand what you are saying but it only applies to “intellectual left”, and not modern, it ws always a feature.
I am , and never was on the marxist field, and do agree that our side doesn’t have to twist its spine and sacrifice intelligence to make an argument and we still find the time for some incorrect humor to liven up things.
Yet I never denied some of the valid critics that marx, particularly on capital concentration and inevitable effects, only wished he had written less and less boringly on the subject and had kept the direction of socioeconomic evolution to a sci-fi book, the truth is circles all the way down.
my 2 cents
But maybe we should take this discussion to the non-ukraine, non-palestine thread
Posted by: newbie | Oct 22 2023 15:48 utc | 458